January 25, 2026 • 37 mins
The Favorites is back to recap the NFC and AFC Championship games! It's a crossover episode with our sister show, The Action Network Podcast! Action Network NFL experts Stuckey, Kendra Middleton and Brandon Kravitz team up to discuss the good, the bad and the ugly from the weekend. A fun one down to the wire in the NFC and a blizzard that slowed everything down in the AFC, the crew dives into their instant reaction to those games and the matchup in Super Bowl LX. We'll be back for more NFL betting content and more throughout the week right here on The Favorites!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Welcome to the Fravorite Treecaps Show. I am your humble
and gracious host Brandon Kravitz. The conference title games are
wrapped up, super Bowl sixty is set. We've got recaps,
we've got our initial read on the line, and a
preview of next week's schedule on this show. But before
we get to any of it, let's welcome in your
(00:30):
Favorites crew, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation Stuckey, and
the Queen of the Pod, Miss Kendra Middleton. A parlay
recap for you. We had Rams plus two and a half,
Oh so close, Kenneth Walker over eighty four and a
half rushing yards. Looked like we were going to get
home on that, and then he fell short in the
second half. Wound up with sixty two rushing yards and
(00:53):
the Broncos plus four and a half, an absolute breeze
and a second half blizzard. All in all, though we
mopped up on the favorites, we had a plus day.
If you go and follow us on the Action Network app.
The Patriots are back in the Super Bowl for the
first time since twenty nineteen. Kendra, of those poor fans
(01:13):
suffered long.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Enough seven years, seven whole years of suffering for the
Patriots fans here, you know, there are third graders who
have never seen a Super Bowl? How crazy is that?
Speaker 1 (01:25):
So sad? So sad, and I'm i am I'm just
happy that they were able to break the drought. It's
been a rough, near decade long drought that they've been experiencing.
Question for both of you here, let's talk about that
game first and then we'll get to the one that
we just witnessed. Did the Patriots win, did the Broncos lose?
(01:49):
Or did the snow just simply take over the game?
And it was basically whoever had the lead at the
time when that snowstorm popped off, stucky. How do you
read the way that this game went down? I thought
Stidham looked good early on, but boy, they did fall
apart fast for him.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
Yeah, I mean I thought the Patriots probably lost more.
I mean, the Broncos probably lost more than anything. I mean,
what did the Patriots do in the game. I mean,
they got a backwards pass that was kind of question more.
It might have been tipped, so President look at it longer.
They got a toy, a twelve yard touchdown drive off
of a left handed backwards pass which was extremely lucky
(02:27):
and so close, and that was that was it. I
mean what Drake May had sixty five net passing yards.
It was a disgusting game. The Broncos multiple missed field goals.
They had a fourth and one, you know, inside the
red zone, with a questionable play call, and then the
Patriots had a fourth and one with the game deciding
(02:49):
field goal that I don't think they got very general
that the backrift decided to move the ball and they
didn't overturn it on replay. Those are always tough to overturn,
but that was didn't It was all ten points for
the Patriots, a questionable four than one decision call and
then a backwards pass that was it. I thought that
the you know, now you have to they basically, I
(03:12):
think their game plan was don't let Drake May lose it.
They didn't want them to fumble. They didn't want them
to like they just you could see on the third
down calls where they would just run it or have
them throw it out of bounds because they just knew
that Sidham wasn't going to do much. So you have
to take that into account. But in the second half,
with the blizzard that favored the Patriots immensely because the
Broncos can't run the ball, and that's the strength of
(03:33):
the Patriots defense is their run defense and the weakness
of the Broncos. Of the Broncos defense is their run day.
So the Patriots were able to run it a little
more successfully once those conditions got bad. That's that. It
was lights out for the Broncos. They were never going
to be able to do anything. But yeah, just an ugly,
disgusting game. I mean, both teams basically averaged three yards
(03:54):
per play. Just an abomination of a football game. But
the Patriots advanced with beating another backup quarterback, so you
got to give them credit.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
I guess Sean Payton. The decision to go for it
early in the game rather than taking the three points
in a game that was decided by three and there
was only seventeen total points scored, that one felt questionable
in the moment, and then the play call itself was
pretty atrocious. It was almost intercepted.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
I don't mind them going for it, it's that I mean,
you have a backup quarterback, you want to, you know,
put the hammer down, go up fourteen to nothing. I
don't mind it. It's just a play call. Sneak the
ball does.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Change your opinion, though if I don't know, I'm not
a weather guy. But that snowstorm was a clear impact
on either team being able to move the football. If
you know that's coming was more important.
Speaker 3 (04:51):
That wasn't known by anybody. That was a complete shock
like that was not The conditions were not supposed to
be like that. There was not sposed to be a
storm like that in the second half. But just sneak
the ball. Both teams had the ball inside the twenty
on fourth and one. I know the Patriots really got
stop short, but they got it on the sneak. The
Broncos didn't, and that was the difference in the game.
(05:15):
So I just didn't like to play. I would have
just sneaked the ball. Push, push, have it in your arsenal.
If you don't trust it him to do it, have
someone else take the snap and get some big guys
behind him and push them forward. There's no reason not to.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
I think the biggest thing today was Josh McDaniel doing
the right thing by daring sid him to go out
there and win it by punting and playing the absolute
most conservative football they could down that fourth quarter. That is,
seeing that weather and knowing that that was what was
going on and daring Jared's did him to go out
there and win.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
It was the best thing that he did today. Drake
May was just not he was like not existent in
this game too. Ten of twenty one, eight eighty six yards.
The ground game was there for him and he was
able to save the day with that eighted sixty five
yards in that score, and he did pick up the
first down that essentially clinched for the New England Patriots,
(06:12):
But it was just an ugly game. Credit to New England.
They are the first team in NFL history to beat
three top five total defenses in the playoffs. And what
I would think is a heavily correlated stat that might
lead a lot of folks to betting on the Seattle Seahawks.
And I'm not telling you quite yet that that's a
bad idea. The Patriots have averaged eighteen points per game
(06:35):
in the postseason, the fewest by any team to make
the Super Bowl since the nineteen seventy nine Rams. But
I mean that which sounds damning, guys. But when I
reach you the first stat that they just went up
against three of the top defenses in the NFL, the Chargers,
the Texans, and then the Broncos, and then the second
(06:55):
half against Denver in a snowstorm. I think it's a
little more reasonable.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
No, totally, it's a lot more reasonable.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Go ahead, most.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
Teams don't get to face a backup quarterback making his
first throwing his first pass Nantasy Championship. I mean, they
haven't faced a healthy offense yet in the playoffs, so.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
That they're gonna com for you.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
No, that, I mean that definitely helps. You're facing three
top den detail. I mean, yeah, your offense didn't do anything,
but you didn't have to do much because you're facing
just completely bankrupt offenses.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
If the Broncos had any run game whatsoever, how different
do you think this outcome would have been.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
I mean, yeah, they really. I mean obviously they missed Nicks,
and I mean Nick's biggest value was late in games,
and not having him in his legs was massive. But yeah,
in those conditions, not having a run game was just killer.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
I do think if they have Nicks, they probably win
the game.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
But I mean the whole game is different. It's hard
to say that.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
I said before we got on.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
We only saw one interception today and it was Jared Studdam.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
Yep, that's kind of nuts. The uh real quick, before
I move on, I want to talk about this spread
and we definitely want to talk about the Rams and
the Seahawks. Does today do anything? Maybe the votes are
already in for the MVP, but just interest, but at
least in our eyes, today has to shape some opinions
(08:19):
or reshape some opinions because Drake may was just sort
of He made a couple of big plays, but he
was just sort of there. Matt Stafford was certainly not
the reason his team loss. He put up a phenomenal
stat line. He was great today. Do you think that
changes anybody's mind if they were on one side of
the fence today shifts them to the other side. I
(08:40):
mean it might not matter, but I mean it's.
Speaker 3 (08:42):
A regular season award. Then votes already ends, it doesn't matter.
But yeah, I thought Stafford was tremendous that. I mean,
the Rams offense destroyed the Seattle defense the entire game.
They average almost nine yards per play in the game
and where they put up five hundred yards again, I
think would let the Rams down. They think there was
(09:05):
three things. I mean, one, obviously, the fourth down at
the end was huge that probably decided the game. But
I think what decided the game earlier on was the
special teams, which was one of my concerns with the
Rams trying to field a punt on your back which
led to a twelve yard touchdown drive that was huge.
(09:26):
And then at the end of the first half they
botched the clock and then they ended up giving the
Seahawks the ball back and the se scored a touchdown. Like,
those two plays were huge. You could say the fourth
down and then like the tawning wash each other out,
But those two plays the end of the first half,
I thought it was so big. And then obviously just
gifting the Seahawks a touchdown in the second half, because
I mean, you look at this, what the Rams averaged
(09:49):
eight point four yards per play the Seahawks six point one.
They outgained them by one hundred and thirty yards. Both
quarterbacks were tremendous. The Rams had more success running the ball.
They averaged five point two yards per carry the Seahawks
under three. And now some of that came off late,
but I thought, like on a down the down basis,
the Rams were better, but they just they're special teams.
(10:12):
There also was another play and this was credit to
the Seahawks for this. The Rams were going to block
a punt and the Seahawks held a smart hole. It
only cost them ten yards. But in the second half,
here were Here were the Rams drives in the second half,
four plays seventy five yards touchdown, five plays eighty seven
yards touchdown, fourteen plays eighty four yards. Nothing they weren't.
(10:36):
I mean, they went eighty four, eighty seven and seventy five,
only had the ball three times, and the Seahawks really
only put one scoring drive together, you know, not outside
of that muff punt. It was a nine play sixty
five yard drive. So yeah, I thought that. I thought
the Seahawks were pretty fortunate, but you had a going
into it. The special teams were concerned for the Rams.
(10:58):
That's where the Seahawks had had an edge and that
ended up possibly being the difference. So great game. I
felt like it was a coin flip game going in,
and I felt like it was a coin flip game
after watching it. But that was not just a relief
from a football fan after watching the AFC Championship game.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
Yeah, I kind of wish that was the Super Bowl,
but this is this is what we have now, Seahawks Patriots,
not the worst of all of the draws that we
could have wound up with. You know that the special
team situation is bad. When Kyron Williams, who doesn't return
punts at the end of the game, is in in
punt return duty, just an absolute disaster all season. They
fire their special teams coach and then they're making decisions
(11:39):
like that mid game because Javi or Smith muffs the
punt and that's the kind of thing in a tight
game that can absolutely screw you. You also had how
about this one when Rieke Wollen taunts the Rams bench
and then I hate that call Stafford next play goes right,
goes right after him poking cool with the touchdown. He
(12:03):
was on the sideline yelling at the opposition. I mean,
that is like the definition of if you're gonna call
it taunting, that is Isn't that exactly what taunting is? Kendro,
Why do you disagree with that?
Speaker 2 (12:14):
I mean, I understand it is like the definition of
what taunting is, but it's it's a championship game, like
let I hate to be like let the Boys play.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Like, let the Boys play. Oh my god, why are
we so soft? I hate it. I get it it.
It is the definition of it.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
And Seahawks fans, if they lost that game, we're going
to hate him for that four ever for sure.
Speaker 1 (12:38):
But like, just come on, it's just we're.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
Getting softer and softer, and I like some of it
and dislike some of it. This is one of the dislikes.
I hate the taunting calls for like anything really like let.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
The Boys celebrate.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
I bring back the Jimmy Graham goalpost dunk. I want
those back. I want to have fun. No fun league
strikes again.
Speaker 1 (12:59):
Well, I mean, and that it wasn't even the worst
move than any defensive back made in the game, my wote.
I'll just go ahead and give that out now. Kobe
Durant of the Rams holds Cooper Cup second and seven
right before the two minute warning. That was the season
ender in my opinion, So Kobe Durant, you get my
vote for today.
Speaker 3 (13:17):
I hated that call too. I mean that there was
there was the Seahawks held like there was probably six
or seven holes on the Seahawks defensive backs that they
didn't call A couple early you know, they had that
face mask that killed a drive that they didn't call.
I mean, I would have let that go too, but
I also wouldn't have called the tawning. It's just just
warn them, like there's just no need to potentially swing
(13:40):
a game on that.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
Speaking of warnings, what did you guys think of the
end of the game, Like, even if Seattle knew for
a fact that Puka was down, if they had to
review that and everybody was on the field, do you
think that there's going to be some sort of like
warning or discussion or something like that from the NFL,
because it kind of from some people's angles, could have
been argued that he was out of bounds. I just
(14:02):
thought that they prematurely rushed the field way too quick.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
I thought it was pretty originally when I saw the catch,
I thought the same thing the moment I saw the replay.
He was clearly down in bounds. He quickly slides out,
But that slide is sort of irrelevant, so they could
have spent more time on it. I think they would
have come to the same conclusion, though.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
I think they definitely would have come to the same conclusion.
I just I thought that it was a little premature considering.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
It's just it's tough. It's hard to I think it's
hard to wrangle that. I'm sure that they would have
loved to have spent a minute and a half on that,
but it's hard to wrangle that many people. You know,
it's like the Stanford band sometimes, you know, people just
get excited about celebrating. That's simple. We do have a
line on the Super Bowl, by the way, we'll get
to that in a moment. Goats and wotes anybody before
we move on to what is in front of us
(14:54):
stuck you it would be your goat and your vote today.
Speaker 3 (14:58):
My vote is McVeigh. I think another poorly coached game.
Just in game at the end of the first half.
They I mean that they gave Seattle seven not kicking
the field goal. You got you gotta play to cover
the game Sewan late. But I thought he would coach
the poor like in like the little things, and that
ended up mattering. And then my goat is I don't
(15:25):
even know my goat is. I mean, like, I guess
Drake may for underthrowing Keyshan booty times because I had
his under catches and he couldn't hit how many times?
Six targets. He was underthrown five times when he wasn't
on certain Uh well, my good certain he shut down
(15:45):
everything deep late, which helped with the cover. So, uh yeah.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
What about you, Kenda, I am going to go with
my goat being Jared that I'm legs by over.
Speaker 1 (16:00):
Hey, we got it. We got it over on two
fronts too.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Yeah, so that was a really nice hit. I had
some nice text messages from my coworkers for that one.
And then I'm gonna go with my WoT the Rams defense.
They just when they need to stop sometimes it's just
they're shooting themselves in the in their own foot. Couldn't
get a stop today when they needed one most and
it was just a bad look for them today in
(16:24):
my opinion.
Speaker 1 (16:24):
So I'm going to go with the.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Rams defense costing me going three and oh today.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
You uh, you guys were nailing it. We were up
one point six units. As a podcast, I'm gonna give
my go to Mike Rabel for letting his team party tonight. Uh.
His team message after the team won the game was
that there's no curve. There's they have no curfew tonight,
(16:51):
but the bus leaves at eight am. So if you
ain't on it. You ain't playing in the super Bowl.
So credit to Mike Rabel for knowing how to have
a good time. Also, two favorites out there.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Wait, I have one more goat. I'm so sorry, I'm
so sorry. I have more goat the Tennessee Titans for
letting that motherfucker go.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
Thank you many his eaters, Fuck you guys, thank you
amen into that. Now they have Robert Salo see if
they can change their fortunes. There My biggest.
Speaker 3 (17:23):
Another goat, by the way, another goat is.
Speaker 1 (17:25):
Uh oh, sure, go ahead, guys.
Speaker 3 (17:28):
I thought McDonald like, I really did think McDonald and
out coach mcdag like. Going back to that end of
the half. The Brams have the ball second and five
up thirteen to ten with a minute five to go
at the end of the first half, and they give
up a touchdown and then McDonald late stays aggressive on
those third downs that they were able to convert to
(17:49):
not because I think the Rams get the ball back,
they're going down. I mean they're going down the field
where whether or not they finish off the drive or not,
it's another question. But staying aggressive late and not just
hurtling with three runs and then punting back to an
offense that you haven't stopped all half thought that was huge.
A lot of coaches wouldn't have done that with a
trip to the super Bowl on the line. So yeah,
(18:10):
I thought all the little things McDonald did better than
mcbah today.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Amen to that. The Seahawks in general gonna be my
biggest goat, and they were a heavy favorite today, at
least in terms of on the money line. That was
my biggest hit today. If you were just betting favorites,
you're just taking chalk. After the wild card round, you've
been doing nothing but winning bets. An underdog has not
(18:35):
won since the wild card round. Thank you Evan Abrams
for that one. So the Patriots have that working against
them because they are now we'll hold it because we're
gonna give you this in just a second.
Speaker 3 (18:49):
One underdog of more than a point has won all
playoffs was the forty nine.
Speaker 1 (18:54):
Ers, That's right, and they went up to that went
up to five and a half six, I think as
that one closed. So yeah, it's the Bills and the
Bears and then the forty nine ers, and that's it.
Every other favorite has won, and now the Seahawks installed
as favorites going into the Super Bowl. We're gonna keep
(19:15):
it rolling in a moment, But first I'm going to
toss it to Kendra for a word about our partners
at Draft Kings.
Speaker 4 (19:20):
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Speaker 1 (19:55):
All right, let's talk about Super Bowl sixty. The line
is out and we have all already seen movement, some
significant movement. Seattle opened his three and a half point
favorites against Seattle and Santa Clara over under forty six
and a half, and then as we went live, that
line moved a full point in favor of the Seattle Seahawks.
(20:18):
The Seattle is now minus four and a half over
on DraftKings at minus one oh eight. If you want
the Patriots at this current moment, at this current price,
they are plus four and a half at minus one twelve. Kendrew,
are you surprised that the line has already shifted this dramatically?
I honestly I figured that public money would be on
(20:41):
the Seahawks, just simply because of the offensive ineptitude of
the Patriots that we've seen throughout the playoffs and especially
what we saw today. People are going to bet what
they've seen most recently. But this is pretty drastic for
an opening move.
Speaker 2 (20:58):
Yeah, I think I am a little surprised, just because
of how quickly it happened. I understand why it happened,
but man, it's not that it's not the sheer fact
that it moved. It's just as quickly as we started talking,
it felt like it changed. I think that's a surprise
for me.
Speaker 1 (21:16):
I would expect this, I am I'm surprised by the
number itself. I would expect Seattle to be around a
four and a half five point favorite against New England
if this game was in Seattle. This is a neutral site,
So I'm a little bit I'm a little surprised that
the numbers is fat stuck you what's your initial read
(21:38):
on the line itself.
Speaker 3 (21:41):
Yeah, at five, I bet the Patriots so like it
I make it in Seattle. I think I make it
coming into this way. I have to update this weekend,
but I think coming into this weekend in Seattle, I
made the Seahawks, like for a like, if it was
(22:02):
a home game.
Speaker 1 (22:03):
There you go. So uh so, this one feels somewhat preposterous.
Speaker 3 (22:08):
I mean, home field isn't like that much in the NFL.
Seattle a little a little bigger than than many. But yeah,
I think three and a half is probably the right
number without I mean, I wouldn't adjust too much for
him today, Like it's I think the Seals probably got
outplayed and the Patriots played a backup you know, you know,
(22:30):
snowstorm the second half. I don't know how much I
can take from that game, right, Like they clearly were
just like we're not going to lose the game, Like
Drake May wasn't great again, which isn't amazing, But because like,
my concern is that my biggest concern here is for one,
the Patriots, Rundy's gonna be able to hold up. I
know that. So it's gonna come down to Donald and
(22:52):
how well they can take away JSN. But Drake May
now is only he's faced you know, three top five defenses,
first quarterback to ever beat him, but he's done nothing
against them, right, like, and all year he didn't face
any good defenses. So the first time we've seen them
against three top five, top ten, whatever you want to
call defenses, it's not been great. The offensive line has
(23:14):
not been great. Well, you're going to face another one
here and argue you the best, So that would be
my concern. But the five feels high.
Speaker 2 (23:22):
Yeah, five feels high, but I am concerned about six
the Patriots.
Speaker 3 (23:27):
I doubt I would get there.
Speaker 1 (23:28):
But okay, then let's play a quick game here. Where
do you think this line closes? Super Bowl Sunday at
six o'clock. What do you think the line is? Sucky
says four.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
I was going to say three and a half or four.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
I agree with your initial assessment. I think this goes
back down to three and a half. I would bet
this right now if I didn't already, I might actually
do it. But I have that Patriots to win the
Super Bowl bet from when bow Nicks went down plus
four twenty five, and there's a part of me that
(24:04):
just wants to park on that. But yeah, I can't
refreshing it.
Speaker 3 (24:10):
So, I mean, got two weeks to think about talking
exactly so.
Speaker 1 (24:13):
And that's the thing. There's so much to break down
to and there's so much, I mean, talk about a
market worth reading. It's the Super Bowl. It's the most
heavily bet game in the entire year, so there is
no rush. But if if you are of the opinion
that this line is going to move down to three
and a half by clothes, if you're confident in that
(24:35):
opinion and you want to be on New England, now
is the time to get it. I think the consensus
point on this podcast right now is if you like Seattle,
don't bet the game yet.
Speaker 3 (24:43):
You're in a dead range. You're at a dead range
if you like Yeah, if you like Seattle, like the
difference between going to four and a half to five
to five and a half is nothing, But if you
want to the Patriots and you think this comes back
down you know, obviously three and four key numbers.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
We'll have definitive opinion for you on all of this
by the time we get to Tuesday and Thursday, and
definitely by next week. But is there any bets? I
believe Kendrew, you've already placed a wager that you have
tracking right now. So I already have a bet on
the game. Uh that I'm not now, I'm not talking
about the Patriots futures bet, but an MVP bet. Kendra,
(25:23):
What have you played so far in the super Bowl?
Speaker 2 (25:25):
Okay, So I'm gonna go with the over. I feel
like this is gonna go one of two ways, and
I might buy out of this eventually, but this is
gonna go one of two ways. I think I either
go I'm gonna go over. I agree with that, Yeah, correct,
I'm gonna two ways. Either Drake may is going to
(25:48):
be able to continue to look the way that he has,
He's gonna elevate in a big moment and they're gonna,
you know, go touchdown for a touchdown, or Seattle is
gonna be the crap out of them and put forty
six up on their own. That's that's what the only
two way I see it going. I think Seattle wins
no matter what. Probably I don't love this number, but
I'm definitely gonna go with Seattle to win this game.
(26:09):
But I think either they're gonna go bo for bow
or Seattle is just gonna run away with it.
Speaker 1 (26:15):
And that number is not budged yet, so that forty
six and a half is sitting there. I like JSN
to win MVP of the super Bowl. That line is
starting to get chopped away. It's at plus five point
fifty right now. I think as long as it's north
of five to one, I would bet JSN to win MVP.
Speaker 2 (26:33):
The minute that I find the like specialty stuff, I
am going to put so much on bad Bunny opening
with Monaco, it's not even funny.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
I could not name one bed Bunny.
Speaker 2 (26:47):
Song is in my top three artists every year.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
Probably recognize a couple of his tracks, but this is
gonna be a learning experience.
Speaker 2 (26:56):
Yeah, the violin opening of Monaco. If you don't think
that is, there is no way they go with anything else,
but that is the open and it's also just so iconic,
and I feel like they usually go with like a
really popular song of theirs, but not their most popular song.
Speaker 4 (27:13):
So I think he saves his.
Speaker 2 (27:14):
Newest album stuff to close with and he opens with
that because it's just such an iconic.
Speaker 1 (27:21):
Opening the stucky have you have you placed anything yet?
Or or have you? Are you also dialed into Bad
Bunnies playlist?
Speaker 3 (27:29):
I know I couldn't name one Bad Bunny song. No,
I haven't played anything. I mean it's we have two weeks.
I got to dive into match up all these props.
Speaker 1 (27:38):
Now the early bird gets the worm, Stucky, let's not
be You know, if.
Speaker 3 (27:42):
I had a strong opinion on something that I thought
was gonna move, I would bet it. But I mean
I didn't even I haven't even looked at anything. I
mean I would bet the Patriots at five are better,
I think, but not in a rush to bet it.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
Next guessing exercise this, Uh, where do you think the
public lands on this game? Or do we already know
based on the way they're gonna love the Pats. I
think it's gonna be the other way. I think the
public's gonna be all over Seattle because of the the
offensive firepower that they have and that New England seems
(28:21):
to everybody.
Speaker 4 (28:22):
Loves Drake May and his wife.
Speaker 1 (28:23):
People are going to spend the week shitting on the
New England Patriots again.
Speaker 2 (28:29):
I think people are infatuated with this Patriots team.
Speaker 4 (28:31):
Dude.
Speaker 3 (28:32):
Now, they tried to better. People tried to bet the
Pats today. It didn't work out, so I think they
might lean Seattle. A lot of everyone bet the Seattle
today and it worked, a lot of recency.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
Do you think people are going to bet on Sam
Donald in the Super Bowl?
Speaker 3 (28:44):
I mean they've been on Sam Donald today. I think
most people were on the Seahawks today and it worked,
and people most people were on the Patriots and it
didn't work. So there's a lot of recency bots and
how people bet, so I think that they would and
the Patriots have looked like shit. People are gonna talking
about their schedule for two weeks.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
I get wait for the calls that we're gonna get.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
Oh my god, so I would think.
Speaker 3 (29:06):
I think Seattle probably gets more.
Speaker 2 (29:08):
Charlie from Medford Colin in Oh my good.
Speaker 1 (29:11):
Yeah, I mean your your life is about to be
so annoying for two weeks. I want to bring in
our stats sound Evan Abrams for a moment, Evan, if
you are, I don't know if your camera ready or not,
but Hoppin, I'm curious what you think is somebody who
tracks this as feverishly as anybody on planet Earth the
public percentages, what you expect that to look to look like.
(29:35):
I think everybody that bets sports has a varying opinion
of how much that matters. But I think it's it's
pretty well understood that it does have impact on a
game like this, because this is the most heavily bet
game of the year. Where do you think the public
lands on this number? Let's say for most of the
next two weeks it sticks around four. Where do you
(29:56):
think they land?
Speaker 3 (29:58):
I honestly have no idea.
Speaker 5 (29:59):
I mean think, I mean truthfully. I mean you have
two quarterbacks who people like Drake May had a passer
rating of like one thirteen in the regular season, it's
down to like eighty four in the playoffs, like this
guy has played legitimately terribly, and you have Sam Darnold too.
I think there's people out there who still just won't
believe he's gonna do it, even though he just did
it against the Rams basically twice.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
Was the public ever back dogs in the Super Bowl
heavily or is it pretty much always the favorite?
Speaker 5 (30:28):
I mean, it's usually the favorite, but if I had
to look, I would guess that there's been some underdogs,
I mean, especially tight underdogs, and.
Speaker 3 (30:34):
Some there's a lot of spreads that are like yeah.
Speaker 5 (30:37):
I mean, I think it would be interesting to see
a line that gets to like four and a half
or five and see if New England would attract any attention.
I mean, the one thing I'll have in my article
when I put out like teams who failed to cover
the conference championship game and actually get there pretty crappy.
In the Super Bowl, they're like four and ten and
two eleven and one against the spread. So fact in
New England's an underdog here. I mean, I mean we
(30:58):
usually don't see the favorite win the game and not
covering the Super Bowl. It happened with Rams Bengals a
few years ago, but it is pretty rare, so that
is one.
Speaker 3 (31:08):
Thing to note.
Speaker 1 (31:09):
Also, you like, you already have a bet place, so
go ahead and give it to us.
Speaker 5 (31:14):
Oh no, I just think it's gonna get much higher.
So if you're going to place a bet right now,
I mean, Drake May twenty nine and a half rushing
yard seems ideal at this point when I see it
up at thirty one and a half at some books
in the market, and just like we just saw today,
I mean, I think considering with both of the running
backs Travion and Ramandre, Travion not really great so far
this year, a lot of doghouse work and Ramandre short
(31:36):
yardage more back, I think May is going to get
over thirty in this game, especially with the pass rush.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
As far as the MVP market goes, so I mentioned JSN.
Is there any other name that you guys think we
should be taking a look at before we officially make
our bets. Darnold, by the way, is the favorite plus
one thirty. Drake May is at plus two thirty five.
Of course, this largely comes down to who you think
(32:04):
is gonna win the football game. Kenneth Walker is six
to one, Romandre twenty five to one. Couna have some
fun with some long shots mentioned Travion. If Travion goes
off seventy five to one is a fun ticket to
have in your background.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
Was the first defensive player on that list.
Speaker 1 (32:17):
If you have it up, I do, that would be
a man Worri seventy five to one.
Speaker 3 (32:28):
I would not go Anderson, especially against his pass rush.
He's probably not going to get that much work and
you can't run on Seattle. Maybe what's what's Drew Locke?
After Donald gets hurt on the first drive.
Speaker 1 (32:44):
Now you're thinking, Now you're thinking Drew Lock is not
is not as far down the list. I just told
you that Iman Worri is the number one defensive players
seventy five to one, and Drew Locke and him have
the same odds.
Speaker 3 (32:56):
That's because odds makerr ospeakers are smart. They know of
starting quarterbacks not gonna get through a full game against
the Bats. That's another thing with the Pats. You think
they're going to play a face of starting quarterback for
the entire game. Come on, I.
Speaker 1 (33:08):
Want to see you just troll track that in the app.
I need this.
Speaker 3 (33:13):
Drew Lock Drew Locke MVPA seventy five to one is ridiculous.
It should be way higher.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
It should absolutely be way higher. That is they're trolling
us with a line like that. Josh Dobbs is like
a one hundred to one.
Speaker 3 (33:26):
I'm trying to think who else is reasonable that I
would think about yeah, Hunter Henry, it's no tight I
mean tight ends never won it, right, Evan so hard
for a tight end to win it.
Speaker 1 (33:42):
I mean May Love May loves his tight end. How
about a nice Swan song for Cooper Cup at ninety
to one.
Speaker 3 (33:50):
Booty, like if he just has a bunch of long receptions.
Speaker 5 (33:56):
I mean Drake may takes a lot of sacks.
Speaker 3 (33:57):
I mean somebody on the Seattle's line, Lawrence or something. Yeah, yeah,
I mean Seattle defensive touchdowns, they're always live. I mean
you could maybe it's like, what is she Heed? What
did you say she was?
Speaker 1 (34:14):
I had not mentioned she Heed, but I like the
idea because.
Speaker 3 (34:16):
He could get stuff in special teams.
Speaker 2 (34:18):
Exactly get you're going to come out that.
Speaker 1 (34:22):
I'm so glad to see this.
Speaker 2 (34:23):
I don't know what happened. I didn't touch it, but
it's gonna be so crazy to see it come out
like Darnald Oblique worse than people saw it, Drew Locke
Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (34:33):
I mean, if that's the case.
Speaker 3 (34:34):
Just don'd gonna get her playing basketball like tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (34:37):
Take Pats plus four and a half and move on
with your lives. People. By the way, she head is
twenty eight to one. And I like that that'd be
like a Heisman MVP, the way that he kind of
is able to do everything.
Speaker 3 (34:47):
Yeah, because you also have like another one is another
one to consider. I don't know. This isn't my specialty
out to talk with our prop guys like Marcus Jones
because he played his defense and he's one of the
best punt returners. Yeah. So it's a good shout. If
you're looking for like super long shots, I haven't got it.
Speaker 1 (35:08):
We saw Bobo catch a touchdown. He's a buck fifty
to one. Stefan Diggs who avoided arraignment or whatever, is
sixty to one.
Speaker 2 (35:17):
So after the Super Bowl, I need to see what
Darnold's price for an interception is.
Speaker 1 (35:21):
Kendra, what's the what's the what's the CARDI b prop
gonna be in this game?
Speaker 2 (35:26):
Ooh how many times she's on screen? Probably because same
thing they do with Taylor Swift.
Speaker 1 (35:32):
Yeah, I chop that number in a half. Probably.
Speaker 2 (35:36):
Yeah. I would say if there's like a one and
a half, I would say twice would be the answer.
I can't wait for all the weird exotic prop show
that we're going to do. That is where I personally
go insane. At the Super Bowl, Like, how long is
the anthem?
Speaker 1 (35:50):
Oh, the gate raid, I'll do some research on the
anthem for sure, you'll definitely definitely do that. All right,
let's keep the rest of this in our back pocket.
We have a lot of shows to get to over
the next couple of weeks. Upcoming schedule on the favorites.
We've got team previews for the Patriots and the Seahawks
on Tuesday and Thursday. We're gonna start filling up the
Super Bowl betting card. We've got a props review and
(36:13):
all of that we're going to see in the next
two weeks. If we can convince Stucky to bet the NBA.
We got a lot of fun exotics that we're gonna
get to as well. Kendro is gonna fill our plate
with that, and of course we are going to place
our official bets for Super Bowl sixty. Monico. Yes, make
(36:34):
sure that you familiarize yourselves, including you, Stucky, you Gifford, you,
David Payne, all of you out there listening and watching
with the Bad Bunny setlist. Okay, don't be that crotchety
guy or girl. As the halftime show is going on,
just bob your head and enjoy it. Keep it locked
right here on the Action Network YouTube paid Good luck
(36:55):
with all of your bets this week. We will catch
you next time here on the Favorites podcast presented by
Draft Games. Happy super Bowl. Action Network reminds you please
gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has
(37:18):
a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven
at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to the Fravorite Treecaps Show. I am your humble
and gracious host Brandon Kravitz. The conference title games are
wrapped up, super Bowl sixty is set. We've got recaps,
we've got our initial read on the line, and a
preview of next week's schedule on this show. But before
we get to any of it, let's welcome in your
(00:30):
Favorites crew, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation Stuckey, and
the Queen of the Pod, Miss Kendra Middleton. A parlay
recap for you. We had Rams plus two and a half,
Oh so close, Kenneth Walker over eighty four and a
half rushing yards. Looked like we were going to get
home on that, and then he fell short in the
second half. Wound up with sixty two rushing yards and
(00:53):
the Broncos plus four and a half, an absolute breeze
and a second half blizzard. All in all, though we
mopped up on the favorites, we had a plus day.
If you go and follow us on the Action Network app.
The Patriots are back in the Super Bowl for the
first time since twenty nineteen. Kendra, of those poor fans
(01:13):
suffered long.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Enough seven years, seven whole years of suffering for the
Patriots fans here, you know, there are third graders who
have never seen a Super Bowl? How crazy is that?
Speaker 1 (01:25):
So sad? So sad, and I'm i am I'm just
happy that they were able to break the drought. It's
been a rough, near decade long drought that they've been experiencing.
Question for both of you here, let's talk about that
game first and then we'll get to the one that
we just witnessed. Did the Patriots win, did the Broncos lose?
(01:49):
Or did the snow just simply take over the game?
And it was basically whoever had the lead at the
time when that snowstorm popped off, stucky. How do you
read the way that this game went down? I thought
Stidham looked good early on, but boy, they did fall
apart fast for him.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
Yeah, I mean I thought the Patriots probably lost more.
I mean, the Broncos probably lost more than anything. I mean,
what did the Patriots do in the game. I mean,
they got a backwards pass that was kind of question more.
It might have been tipped, so President look at it longer.
They got a toy, a twelve yard touchdown drive off
of a left handed backwards pass which was extremely lucky
(02:27):
and so close, and that was that was it. I
mean what Drake May had sixty five net passing yards.
It was a disgusting game. The Broncos multiple missed field goals.
They had a fourth and one, you know, inside the
red zone, with a questionable play call, and then the
Patriots had a fourth and one with the game deciding
(02:49):
field goal that I don't think they got very general
that the backrift decided to move the ball and they
didn't overturn it on replay. Those are always tough to overturn,
but that was didn't It was all ten points for
the Patriots, a questionable four than one decision call and
then a backwards pass that was it. I thought that
the you know, now you have to they basically, I
(03:12):
think their game plan was don't let Drake May lose it.
They didn't want them to fumble. They didn't want them
to like they just you could see on the third
down calls where they would just run it or have
them throw it out of bounds because they just knew
that Sidham wasn't going to do much. So you have
to take that into account. But in the second half,
with the blizzard that favored the Patriots immensely because the
Broncos can't run the ball, and that's the strength of
(03:33):
the Patriots defense is their run defense and the weakness
of the Broncos. Of the Broncos defense is their run day.
So the Patriots were able to run it a little
more successfully once those conditions got bad. That's that. It
was lights out for the Broncos. They were never going
to be able to do anything. But yeah, just an ugly,
disgusting game. I mean, both teams basically averaged three yards
(03:54):
per play. Just an abomination of a football game. But
the Patriots advanced with beating another backup quarterback, so you
got to give them credit.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
I guess Sean Payton. The decision to go for it
early in the game rather than taking the three points
in a game that was decided by three and there
was only seventeen total points scored, that one felt questionable
in the moment, and then the play call itself was
pretty atrocious. It was almost intercepted.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
I don't mind them going for it, it's that I mean,
you have a backup quarterback, you want to, you know,
put the hammer down, go up fourteen to nothing. I
don't mind it. It's just a play call. Sneak the
ball does.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Change your opinion, though if I don't know, I'm not
a weather guy. But that snowstorm was a clear impact
on either team being able to move the football. If
you know that's coming was more important.
Speaker 3 (04:51):
That wasn't known by anybody. That was a complete shock
like that was not The conditions were not supposed to
be like that. There was not sposed to be a
storm like that in the second half. But just sneak
the ball. Both teams had the ball inside the twenty
on fourth and one. I know the Patriots really got
stop short, but they got it on the sneak. The
Broncos didn't, and that was the difference in the game.
(05:15):
So I just didn't like to play. I would have
just sneaked the ball. Push, push, have it in your arsenal.
If you don't trust it him to do it, have
someone else take the snap and get some big guys
behind him and push them forward. There's no reason not to.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
I think the biggest thing today was Josh McDaniel doing
the right thing by daring sid him to go out
there and win it by punting and playing the absolute
most conservative football they could down that fourth quarter. That is,
seeing that weather and knowing that that was what was
going on and daring Jared's did him to go out
there and win.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
It was the best thing that he did today. Drake
May was just not he was like not existent in
this game too. Ten of twenty one, eight eighty six yards.
The ground game was there for him and he was
able to save the day with that eighted sixty five
yards in that score, and he did pick up the
first down that essentially clinched for the New England Patriots,
(06:12):
But it was just an ugly game. Credit to New England.
They are the first team in NFL history to beat
three top five total defenses in the playoffs. And what
I would think is a heavily correlated stat that might
lead a lot of folks to betting on the Seattle Seahawks.
And I'm not telling you quite yet that that's a
bad idea. The Patriots have averaged eighteen points per game
(06:35):
in the postseason, the fewest by any team to make
the Super Bowl since the nineteen seventy nine Rams. But
I mean that which sounds damning, guys. But when I
reach you the first stat that they just went up
against three of the top defenses in the NFL, the Chargers,
the Texans, and then the Broncos, and then the second
(06:55):
half against Denver in a snowstorm. I think it's a
little more reasonable.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
No, totally, it's a lot more reasonable.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Go ahead, most.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
Teams don't get to face a backup quarterback making his
first throwing his first pass Nantasy Championship. I mean, they
haven't faced a healthy offense yet in the playoffs, so.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
That they're gonna com for you.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
No, that, I mean that definitely helps. You're facing three
top den detail. I mean, yeah, your offense didn't do anything,
but you didn't have to do much because you're facing
just completely bankrupt offenses.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
If the Broncos had any run game whatsoever, how different
do you think this outcome would have been.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
I mean, yeah, they really. I mean obviously they missed Nicks,
and I mean Nick's biggest value was late in games,
and not having him in his legs was massive. But yeah,
in those conditions, not having a run game was just killer.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
I do think if they have Nicks, they probably win
the game.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
But I mean the whole game is different. It's hard
to say that.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
I said before we got on.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
We only saw one interception today and it was Jared Studdam.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
Yep, that's kind of nuts. The uh real quick, before
I move on, I want to talk about this spread
and we definitely want to talk about the Rams and
the Seahawks. Does today do anything? Maybe the votes are
already in for the MVP, but just interest, but at
least in our eyes, today has to shape some opinions
(08:19):
or reshape some opinions because Drake may was just sort
of He made a couple of big plays, but he
was just sort of there. Matt Stafford was certainly not
the reason his team loss. He put up a phenomenal
stat line. He was great today. Do you think that
changes anybody's mind if they were on one side of
the fence today shifts them to the other side. I
(08:40):
mean it might not matter, but I mean it's.
Speaker 3 (08:42):
A regular season award. Then votes already ends, it doesn't matter.
But yeah, I thought Stafford was tremendous that. I mean,
the Rams offense destroyed the Seattle defense the entire game.
They average almost nine yards per play in the game
and where they put up five hundred yards again, I
think would let the Rams down. They think there was
(09:05):
three things. I mean, one, obviously, the fourth down at
the end was huge that probably decided the game. But
I think what decided the game earlier on was the
special teams, which was one of my concerns with the
Rams trying to field a punt on your back which
led to a twelve yard touchdown drive that was huge.
(09:26):
And then at the end of the first half they
botched the clock and then they ended up giving the
Seahawks the ball back and the se scored a touchdown. Like,
those two plays were huge. You could say the fourth
down and then like the tawning wash each other out,
But those two plays the end of the first half,
I thought it was so big. And then obviously just
gifting the Seahawks a touchdown in the second half, because
I mean, you look at this, what the Rams averaged
(09:49):
eight point four yards per play the Seahawks six point one.
They outgained them by one hundred and thirty yards. Both
quarterbacks were tremendous. The Rams had more success running the ball.
They averaged five point two yards per carry the Seahawks
under three. And now some of that came off late,
but I thought, like on a down the down basis,
the Rams were better, but they just they're special teams.
(10:12):
There also was another play and this was credit to
the Seahawks for this. The Rams were going to block
a punt and the Seahawks held a smart hole. It
only cost them ten yards. But in the second half,
here were Here were the Rams drives in the second half,
four plays seventy five yards touchdown, five plays eighty seven
yards touchdown, fourteen plays eighty four yards. Nothing they weren't.
(10:36):
I mean, they went eighty four, eighty seven and seventy five,
only had the ball three times, and the Seahawks really
only put one scoring drive together, you know, not outside
of that muff punt. It was a nine play sixty
five yard drive. So yeah, I thought that. I thought
the Seahawks were pretty fortunate, but you had a going
into it. The special teams were concerned for the Rams.
(10:58):
That's where the Seahawks had had an edge and that
ended up possibly being the difference. So great game. I
felt like it was a coin flip game going in,
and I felt like it was a coin flip game
after watching it. But that was not just a relief
from a football fan after watching the AFC Championship game.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
Yeah, I kind of wish that was the Super Bowl,
but this is this is what we have now, Seahawks Patriots,
not the worst of all of the draws that we
could have wound up with. You know that the special
team situation is bad. When Kyron Williams, who doesn't return
punts at the end of the game, is in in
punt return duty, just an absolute disaster all season. They
fire their special teams coach and then they're making decisions
(11:39):
like that mid game because Javi or Smith muffs the
punt and that's the kind of thing in a tight
game that can absolutely screw you. You also had how
about this one when Rieke Wollen taunts the Rams bench
and then I hate that call Stafford next play goes right,
goes right after him poking cool with the touchdown. He
(12:03):
was on the sideline yelling at the opposition. I mean,
that is like the definition of if you're gonna call
it taunting, that is Isn't that exactly what taunting is? Kendro,
Why do you disagree with that?
Speaker 2 (12:14):
I mean, I understand it is like the definition of
what taunting is, but it's it's a championship game, like
let I hate to be like let the Boys play.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Like, let the Boys play. Oh my god, why are
we so soft? I hate it. I get it it.
It is the definition of it.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
And Seahawks fans, if they lost that game, we're going
to hate him for that four ever for sure.
Speaker 1 (12:38):
But like, just come on, it's just we're.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
Getting softer and softer, and I like some of it
and dislike some of it. This is one of the dislikes.
I hate the taunting calls for like anything really like let.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
The Boys celebrate.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
I bring back the Jimmy Graham goalpost dunk. I want
those back. I want to have fun. No fun league
strikes again.
Speaker 1 (12:59):
Well, I mean, and that it wasn't even the worst
move than any defensive back made in the game, my wote.
I'll just go ahead and give that out now. Kobe
Durant of the Rams holds Cooper Cup second and seven
right before the two minute warning. That was the season
ender in my opinion, So Kobe Durant, you get my
vote for today.
Speaker 3 (13:17):
I hated that call too. I mean that there was
there was the Seahawks held like there was probably six
or seven holes on the Seahawks defensive backs that they
didn't call A couple early you know, they had that
face mask that killed a drive that they didn't call.
I mean, I would have let that go too, but
I also wouldn't have called the tawning. It's just just
warn them, like there's just no need to potentially swing
(13:40):
a game on that.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
Speaking of warnings, what did you guys think of the
end of the game, Like, even if Seattle knew for
a fact that Puka was down, if they had to
review that and everybody was on the field, do you
think that there's going to be some sort of like
warning or discussion or something like that from the NFL,
because it kind of from some people's angles, could have
been argued that he was out of bounds. I just
(14:02):
thought that they prematurely rushed the field way too quick.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
I thought it was pretty originally when I saw the catch,
I thought the same thing the moment I saw the replay.
He was clearly down in bounds. He quickly slides out,
But that slide is sort of irrelevant, so they could
have spent more time on it. I think they would
have come to the same conclusion, though.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
I think they definitely would have come to the same conclusion.
I just I thought that it was a little premature considering.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
It's just it's tough. It's hard to I think it's
hard to wrangle that. I'm sure that they would have
loved to have spent a minute and a half on that,
but it's hard to wrangle that many people. You know,
it's like the Stanford band sometimes, you know, people just
get excited about celebrating. That's simple. We do have a
line on the Super Bowl, by the way, we'll get
to that in a moment. Goats and wotes anybody before
we move on to what is in front of us
(14:54):
stuck you it would be your goat and your vote today.
Speaker 3 (14:58):
My vote is McVeigh. I think another poorly coached game.
Just in game at the end of the first half.
They I mean that they gave Seattle seven not kicking
the field goal. You got you gotta play to cover
the game Sewan late. But I thought he would coach
the poor like in like the little things, and that
ended up mattering. And then my goat is I don't
(15:25):
even know my goat is. I mean, like, I guess
Drake may for underthrowing Keyshan booty times because I had
his under catches and he couldn't hit how many times?
Six targets. He was underthrown five times when he wasn't
on certain Uh well, my good certain he shut down
(15:45):
everything deep late, which helped with the cover. So, uh yeah.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
What about you, Kenda, I am going to go with
my goat being Jared that I'm legs by over.
Speaker 1 (16:00):
Hey, we got it. We got it over on two
fronts too.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Yeah, so that was a really nice hit. I had
some nice text messages from my coworkers for that one.
And then I'm gonna go with my WoT the Rams defense.
They just when they need to stop sometimes it's just
they're shooting themselves in the in their own foot. Couldn't
get a stop today when they needed one most and
it was just a bad look for them today in
(16:24):
my opinion.
Speaker 1 (16:24):
So I'm going to go with the.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Rams defense costing me going three and oh today.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
You uh, you guys were nailing it. We were up
one point six units. As a podcast, I'm gonna give
my go to Mike Rabel for letting his team party tonight. Uh.
His team message after the team won the game was
that there's no curve. There's they have no curfew tonight,
(16:51):
but the bus leaves at eight am. So if you
ain't on it. You ain't playing in the super Bowl.
So credit to Mike Rabel for knowing how to have
a good time. Also, two favorites out there.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Wait, I have one more goat. I'm so sorry, I'm
so sorry. I have more goat the Tennessee Titans for
letting that motherfucker go.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
Thank you many his eaters, Fuck you guys, thank you
amen into that. Now they have Robert Salo see if
they can change their fortunes. There My biggest.
Speaker 3 (17:23):
Another goat, by the way, another goat is.
Speaker 1 (17:25):
Uh oh, sure, go ahead, guys.
Speaker 3 (17:28):
I thought McDonald like, I really did think McDonald and
out coach mcdag like. Going back to that end of
the half. The Brams have the ball second and five
up thirteen to ten with a minute five to go
at the end of the first half, and they give
up a touchdown and then McDonald late stays aggressive on
those third downs that they were able to convert to
(17:49):
not because I think the Rams get the ball back,
they're going down. I mean they're going down the field
where whether or not they finish off the drive or not,
it's another question. But staying aggressive late and not just
hurtling with three runs and then punting back to an
offense that you haven't stopped all half thought that was huge.
A lot of coaches wouldn't have done that with a
trip to the super Bowl on the line. So yeah,
(18:10):
I thought all the little things McDonald did better than
mcbah today.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Amen to that. The Seahawks in general gonna be my
biggest goat, and they were a heavy favorite today, at
least in terms of on the money line. That was
my biggest hit today. If you were just betting favorites,
you're just taking chalk. After the wild card round, you've
been doing nothing but winning bets. An underdog has not
(18:35):
won since the wild card round. Thank you Evan Abrams
for that one. So the Patriots have that working against
them because they are now we'll hold it because we're
gonna give you this in just a second.
Speaker 3 (18:49):
One underdog of more than a point has won all
playoffs was the forty nine.
Speaker 1 (18:54):
Ers, That's right, and they went up to that went
up to five and a half six, I think as
that one closed. So yeah, it's the Bills and the
Bears and then the forty nine ers, and that's it.
Every other favorite has won, and now the Seahawks installed
as favorites going into the Super Bowl. We're gonna keep
(19:15):
it rolling in a moment, But first I'm going to
toss it to Kendra for a word about our partners
at Draft Kings.
Speaker 4 (19:20):
The Favorites podcast is sponsored by DraftKings Sports book and
in partnership with DraftKings, our listeners are getting a great
offer right now. New customers can bet five dollars and
get three hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your
bet wins. The next great touchdown is coming and you
can bet on it. If sports betting is not yet
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in on all the fun with DraftKings Pick six and
(19:41):
have the shot to win cash prizes. To get started,
use promo code Favorites when signing up with DraftKings. Again,
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Speaker 1 (19:55):
All right, let's talk about Super Bowl sixty. The line
is out and we have all already seen movement, some
significant movement. Seattle opened his three and a half point
favorites against Seattle and Santa Clara over under forty six
and a half, and then as we went live, that
line moved a full point in favor of the Seattle Seahawks.
(20:18):
The Seattle is now minus four and a half over
on DraftKings at minus one oh eight. If you want
the Patriots at this current moment, at this current price,
they are plus four and a half at minus one twelve. Kendrew,
are you surprised that the line has already shifted this dramatically?
I honestly I figured that public money would be on
(20:41):
the Seahawks, just simply because of the offensive ineptitude of
the Patriots that we've seen throughout the playoffs and especially
what we saw today. People are going to bet what
they've seen most recently. But this is pretty drastic for
an opening move.
Speaker 2 (20:58):
Yeah, I think I am a little surprised, just because
of how quickly it happened. I understand why it happened,
but man, it's not that it's not the sheer fact
that it moved. It's just as quickly as we started talking,
it felt like it changed. I think that's a surprise
for me.
Speaker 1 (21:16):
I would expect this, I am I'm surprised by the
number itself. I would expect Seattle to be around a
four and a half five point favorite against New England
if this game was in Seattle. This is a neutral site,
So I'm a little bit I'm a little surprised that
the numbers is fat stuck you what's your initial read
(21:38):
on the line itself.
Speaker 3 (21:41):
Yeah, at five, I bet the Patriots so like it
I make it in Seattle. I think I make it
coming into this way. I have to update this weekend,
but I think coming into this weekend in Seattle, I
made the Seahawks, like for a like, if it was
(22:02):
a home game.
Speaker 1 (22:03):
There you go. So uh so, this one feels somewhat preposterous.
Speaker 3 (22:08):
I mean, home field isn't like that much in the NFL.
Seattle a little a little bigger than than many. But yeah,
I think three and a half is probably the right
number without I mean, I wouldn't adjust too much for
him today, Like it's I think the Seals probably got
outplayed and the Patriots played a backup you know, you know,
(22:30):
snowstorm the second half. I don't know how much I
can take from that game, right, Like they clearly were
just like we're not going to lose the game, Like
Drake May wasn't great again, which isn't amazing, But because like,
my concern is that my biggest concern here is for one,
the Patriots, Rundy's gonna be able to hold up. I
know that. So it's gonna come down to Donald and
(22:52):
how well they can take away JSN. But Drake May
now is only he's faced you know, three top five defenses,
first quarterback to ever beat him, but he's done nothing
against them, right, like, and all year he didn't face
any good defenses. So the first time we've seen them
against three top five, top ten, whatever you want to
call defenses, it's not been great. The offensive line has
(23:14):
not been great. Well, you're going to face another one
here and argue you the best, So that would be
my concern. But the five feels high.
Speaker 2 (23:22):
Yeah, five feels high, but I am concerned about six
the Patriots.
Speaker 3 (23:27):
I doubt I would get there.
Speaker 1 (23:28):
But okay, then let's play a quick game here. Where
do you think this line closes? Super Bowl Sunday at
six o'clock. What do you think the line is? Sucky
says four.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
I was going to say three and a half or four.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
I agree with your initial assessment. I think this goes
back down to three and a half. I would bet
this right now if I didn't already, I might actually
do it. But I have that Patriots to win the
Super Bowl bet from when bow Nicks went down plus
four twenty five, and there's a part of me that
(24:04):
just wants to park on that. But yeah, I can't
refreshing it.
Speaker 3 (24:10):
So, I mean, got two weeks to think about talking
exactly so.
Speaker 1 (24:13):
And that's the thing. There's so much to break down
to and there's so much, I mean, talk about a
market worth reading. It's the Super Bowl. It's the most
heavily bet game in the entire year, so there is
no rush. But if if you are of the opinion
that this line is going to move down to three
and a half by clothes, if you're confident in that
(24:35):
opinion and you want to be on New England, now
is the time to get it. I think the consensus
point on this podcast right now is if you like Seattle,
don't bet the game yet.
Speaker 3 (24:43):
You're in a dead range. You're at a dead range
if you like Yeah, if you like Seattle, like the
difference between going to four and a half to five
to five and a half is nothing, But if you
want to the Patriots and you think this comes back
down you know, obviously three and four key numbers.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
We'll have definitive opinion for you on all of this
by the time we get to Tuesday and Thursday, and
definitely by next week. But is there any bets? I
believe Kendrew, you've already placed a wager that you have
tracking right now. So I already have a bet on
the game. Uh that I'm not now, I'm not talking
about the Patriots futures bet, but an MVP bet. Kendra,
(25:23):
What have you played so far in the super Bowl?
Speaker 2 (25:25):
Okay, So I'm gonna go with the over. I feel
like this is gonna go one of two ways, and
I might buy out of this eventually, but this is
gonna go one of two ways. I think I either
go I'm gonna go over. I agree with that, Yeah, correct,
I'm gonna two ways. Either Drake may is going to
(25:48):
be able to continue to look the way that he has,
He's gonna elevate in a big moment and they're gonna,
you know, go touchdown for a touchdown, or Seattle is
gonna be the crap out of them and put forty
six up on their own. That's that's what the only
two way I see it going. I think Seattle wins
no matter what. Probably I don't love this number, but
I'm definitely gonna go with Seattle to win this game.
(26:09):
But I think either they're gonna go bo for bow
or Seattle is just gonna run away with it.
Speaker 1 (26:15):
And that number is not budged yet, so that forty
six and a half is sitting there. I like JSN
to win MVP of the super Bowl. That line is
starting to get chopped away. It's at plus five point
fifty right now. I think as long as it's north
of five to one, I would bet JSN to win MVP.
Speaker 2 (26:33):
The minute that I find the like specialty stuff, I
am going to put so much on bad Bunny opening
with Monaco, it's not even funny.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
I could not name one bed Bunny.
Speaker 2 (26:47):
Song is in my top three artists every year.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
Probably recognize a couple of his tracks, but this is
gonna be a learning experience.
Speaker 2 (26:56):
Yeah, the violin opening of Monaco. If you don't think
that is, there is no way they go with anything else,
but that is the open and it's also just so iconic,
and I feel like they usually go with like a
really popular song of theirs, but not their most popular song.
Speaker 4 (27:13):
So I think he saves his.
Speaker 2 (27:14):
Newest album stuff to close with and he opens with
that because it's just such an iconic.
Speaker 1 (27:21):
Opening the stucky have you have you placed anything yet?
Or or have you? Are you also dialed into Bad
Bunnies playlist?
Speaker 3 (27:29):
I know I couldn't name one Bad Bunny song. No,
I haven't played anything. I mean it's we have two weeks.
I got to dive into match up all these props.
Speaker 1 (27:38):
Now the early bird gets the worm, Stucky, let's not
be You know, if.
Speaker 3 (27:42):
I had a strong opinion on something that I thought
was gonna move, I would bet it. But I mean
I didn't even I haven't even looked at anything. I
mean I would bet the Patriots at five are better,
I think, but not in a rush to bet it.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
Next guessing exercise this, Uh, where do you think the
public lands on this game? Or do we already know
based on the way they're gonna love the Pats. I
think it's gonna be the other way. I think the
public's gonna be all over Seattle because of the the
offensive firepower that they have and that New England seems
(28:21):
to everybody.
Speaker 4 (28:22):
Loves Drake May and his wife.
Speaker 1 (28:23):
People are going to spend the week shitting on the
New England Patriots again.
Speaker 2 (28:29):
I think people are infatuated with this Patriots team.
Speaker 4 (28:31):
Dude.
Speaker 3 (28:32):
Now, they tried to better. People tried to bet the
Pats today. It didn't work out, so I think they
might lean Seattle. A lot of everyone bet the Seattle
today and it worked, a lot of recency.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
Do you think people are going to bet on Sam
Donald in the Super Bowl?
Speaker 3 (28:44):
I mean they've been on Sam Donald today. I think
most people were on the Seahawks today and it worked,
and people most people were on the Patriots and it
didn't work. So there's a lot of recency bots and
how people bet, so I think that they would and
the Patriots have looked like shit. People are gonna talking
about their schedule for two weeks.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
I get wait for the calls that we're gonna get.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
Oh my god, so I would think.
Speaker 3 (29:06):
I think Seattle probably gets more.
Speaker 2 (29:08):
Charlie from Medford Colin in Oh my good.
Speaker 1 (29:11):
Yeah, I mean your your life is about to be
so annoying for two weeks. I want to bring in
our stats sound Evan Abrams for a moment, Evan, if
you are, I don't know if your camera ready or not,
but Hoppin, I'm curious what you think is somebody who
tracks this as feverishly as anybody on planet Earth the
public percentages, what you expect that to look to look like.
(29:35):
I think everybody that bets sports has a varying opinion
of how much that matters. But I think it's it's
pretty well understood that it does have impact on a
game like this, because this is the most heavily bet
game of the year. Where do you think the public
lands on this number? Let's say for most of the
next two weeks it sticks around four. Where do you
(29:56):
think they land?
Speaker 3 (29:58):
I honestly have no idea.
Speaker 5 (29:59):
I mean think, I mean truthfully. I mean you have
two quarterbacks who people like Drake May had a passer
rating of like one thirteen in the regular season, it's
down to like eighty four in the playoffs, like this
guy has played legitimately terribly, and you have Sam Darnold too.
I think there's people out there who still just won't
believe he's gonna do it, even though he just did
it against the Rams basically twice.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
Was the public ever back dogs in the Super Bowl
heavily or is it pretty much always the favorite?
Speaker 5 (30:28):
I mean, it's usually the favorite, but if I had
to look, I would guess that there's been some underdogs,
I mean, especially tight underdogs, and.
Speaker 3 (30:34):
Some there's a lot of spreads that are like yeah.
Speaker 5 (30:37):
I mean, I think it would be interesting to see
a line that gets to like four and a half
or five and see if New England would attract any attention.
I mean, the one thing I'll have in my article
when I put out like teams who failed to cover
the conference championship game and actually get there pretty crappy.
In the Super Bowl, they're like four and ten and
two eleven and one against the spread. So fact in
New England's an underdog here. I mean, I mean we
(30:58):
usually don't see the favorite win the game and not
covering the Super Bowl. It happened with Rams Bengals a
few years ago, but it is pretty rare, so that
is one.
Speaker 3 (31:08):
Thing to note.
Speaker 1 (31:09):
Also, you like, you already have a bet place, so
go ahead and give it to us.
Speaker 5 (31:14):
Oh no, I just think it's gonna get much higher.
So if you're going to place a bet right now,
I mean, Drake May twenty nine and a half rushing
yard seems ideal at this point when I see it
up at thirty one and a half at some books
in the market, and just like we just saw today,
I mean, I think considering with both of the running
backs Travion and Ramandre, Travion not really great so far
this year, a lot of doghouse work and Ramandre short
(31:36):
yardage more back, I think May is going to get
over thirty in this game, especially with the pass rush.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
As far as the MVP market goes, so I mentioned JSN.
Is there any other name that you guys think we
should be taking a look at before we officially make
our bets. Darnold, by the way, is the favorite plus
one thirty. Drake May is at plus two thirty five.
Of course, this largely comes down to who you think
(32:04):
is gonna win the football game. Kenneth Walker is six
to one, Romandre twenty five to one. Couna have some
fun with some long shots mentioned Travion. If Travion goes
off seventy five to one is a fun ticket to
have in your background.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
Was the first defensive player on that list.
Speaker 1 (32:17):
If you have it up, I do, that would be
a man Worri seventy five to one.
Speaker 3 (32:28):
I would not go Anderson, especially against his pass rush.
He's probably not going to get that much work and
you can't run on Seattle. Maybe what's what's Drew Locke?
After Donald gets hurt on the first drive.
Speaker 1 (32:44):
Now you're thinking, Now you're thinking Drew Lock is not
is not as far down the list. I just told
you that Iman Worri is the number one defensive players
seventy five to one, and Drew Locke and him have
the same odds.
Speaker 3 (32:56):
That's because odds makerr ospeakers are smart. They know of
starting quarterbacks not gonna get through a full game against
the Bats. That's another thing with the Pats. You think
they're going to play a face of starting quarterback for
the entire game. Come on, I.
Speaker 1 (33:08):
Want to see you just troll track that in the app.
I need this.
Speaker 3 (33:13):
Drew Lock Drew Locke MVPA seventy five to one is ridiculous.
It should be way higher.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
It should absolutely be way higher. That is they're trolling
us with a line like that. Josh Dobbs is like
a one hundred to one.
Speaker 3 (33:26):
I'm trying to think who else is reasonable that I
would think about yeah, Hunter Henry, it's no tight I
mean tight ends never won it, right, Evan so hard
for a tight end to win it.
Speaker 1 (33:42):
I mean May Love May loves his tight end. How
about a nice Swan song for Cooper Cup at ninety
to one.
Speaker 3 (33:50):
Booty, like if he just has a bunch of long receptions.
Speaker 5 (33:56):
I mean Drake may takes a lot of sacks.
Speaker 3 (33:57):
I mean somebody on the Seattle's line, Lawrence or something. Yeah, yeah,
I mean Seattle defensive touchdowns, they're always live. I mean
you could maybe it's like, what is she Heed? What
did you say she was?
Speaker 1 (34:14):
I had not mentioned she Heed, but I like the
idea because.
Speaker 3 (34:16):
He could get stuff in special teams.
Speaker 2 (34:18):
Exactly get you're going to come out that.
Speaker 1 (34:22):
I'm so glad to see this.
Speaker 2 (34:23):
I don't know what happened. I didn't touch it, but
it's gonna be so crazy to see it come out
like Darnald Oblique worse than people saw it, Drew Locke
Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (34:33):
I mean, if that's the case.
Speaker 3 (34:34):
Just don'd gonna get her playing basketball like tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (34:37):
Take Pats plus four and a half and move on
with your lives. People. By the way, she head is
twenty eight to one. And I like that that'd be
like a Heisman MVP, the way that he kind of
is able to do everything.
Speaker 3 (34:47):
Yeah, because you also have like another one is another
one to consider. I don't know. This isn't my specialty
out to talk with our prop guys like Marcus Jones
because he played his defense and he's one of the
best punt returners. Yeah. So it's a good shout. If
you're looking for like super long shots, I haven't got it.
Speaker 1 (35:08):
We saw Bobo catch a touchdown. He's a buck fifty
to one. Stefan Diggs who avoided arraignment or whatever, is
sixty to one.
Speaker 2 (35:17):
So after the Super Bowl, I need to see what
Darnold's price for an interception is.
Speaker 1 (35:21):
Kendra, what's the what's the what's the CARDI b prop
gonna be in this game?
Speaker 2 (35:26):
Ooh how many times she's on screen? Probably because same
thing they do with Taylor Swift.
Speaker 1 (35:32):
Yeah, I chop that number in a half. Probably.
Speaker 2 (35:36):
Yeah. I would say if there's like a one and
a half, I would say twice would be the answer.
I can't wait for all the weird exotic prop show
that we're going to do. That is where I personally
go insane. At the Super Bowl, Like, how long is
the anthem?
Speaker 1 (35:50):
Oh, the gate raid, I'll do some research on the
anthem for sure, you'll definitely definitely do that. All right,
let's keep the rest of this in our back pocket.
We have a lot of shows to get to over
the next couple of weeks. Upcoming schedule on the favorites.
We've got team previews for the Patriots and the Seahawks
on Tuesday and Thursday. We're gonna start filling up the
Super Bowl betting card. We've got a props review and
(36:13):
all of that we're going to see in the next
two weeks. If we can convince Stucky to bet the NBA.
We got a lot of fun exotics that we're gonna
get to as well. Kendro is gonna fill our plate
with that, and of course we are going to place
our official bets for Super Bowl sixty. Monico. Yes, make
(36:34):
sure that you familiarize yourselves, including you, Stucky, you Gifford, you,
David Payne, all of you out there listening and watching
with the Bad Bunny setlist. Okay, don't be that crotchety
guy or girl. As the halftime show is going on,
just bob your head and enjoy it. Keep it locked
right here on the Action Network YouTube paid Good luck
(36:55):
with all of your bets this week. We will catch
you next time here on the Favorites podcast presented by
Draft Games. Happy super Bowl. Action Network reminds you please
gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has
(37:18):
a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven
at one eight hundred gambler
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