January 20, 2026 • 46 mins
And then there were four! The Favorites is back for an early look at the AFC and NFC Championship games! The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots will face off in Denver with no Bo Nix in the AFC and the Seattle Seahawks will host the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC. Will it be coaching, defense or something else that gets these teams another win? Action Network hosts Brandon Kravitz, Kendra Middleton and Stuckey discuss each game along with some other news and notes from around the league. Plus, the crew each plants their flag early on a play they like this weekend and dives into some nuggets from the weekly NFL Primer, courtesy of Action Director of Research Evan Abrams, delivering everything needed to start betting the NFL each week. Jump in and enjoy!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, back
at it with my peoples. The first Lady of the pod,
Kendra Middleton, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation Stuckey, whose
college football season just ended. On today's episode, We've got
our plant the Flag game for the conference championship games,
(00:32):
Kendra's Deepest Darkest thoughts, and Evans Tuesday primer. You can't
start a betting week without it. Only three games left, Kendra?
Is it time to rejoice or is it time to cry?
Speaker 2 (00:48):
I thought that I was going to be excited to
get a break and for the weather to get warmer
and everything. But last week, when there was no football
on like the normal prime time slots, I got really sad.
So I'm going to go with sad just because I
do miss football when it's not on, But I also
miss the routine of football when it's not on.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Yeah, then to agree with that, I miss the full slates.
We've got two great games left and then a two
week build up for what will hopefully be a game
that doesn't involve Jared Steadham or any backup quarterback action stucky?
What about you? How do you reconcile with this time
of year? Any emotions flowing through that noggin?
Speaker 3 (01:30):
I mean it isn't it's stunning to watch like a
national title just one football game. The commercials are just incessant. Yeah,
especially because you used to watching like a million games once.
But it's it's college basketball season for me, so it's
I'll have that feeling in April. So I just kind
(01:56):
of shift my Like the preparation now for football games
is so much easier, so I just take all that
time dedicated to college basketball. But really we're looking into
just four teams now there's no college football, so that's in.
Speaker 4 (02:13):
The rear view mirror.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
And I in one of the games this weekend is
just like there's not much. There's not a ton to
break down, Like you just have to make a decision
on if you want to bet the Patriots Broncos game, Like,
what do you think the drop off is from Nicks
(02:38):
to Stidham, who hasn't played in a game in seven
hundred and fifty days. If you think it's too much,
you bet in the Broncos. If you don't think it's
enough you'll probably bet the Patriots, and that's kind of
the decision point. It's not like you're going and breaking
down what the Broncos offense look like with Stidham this year.
There's just nothing, So that one isn't like there's not
(03:02):
a lot of time to be spent on that game.
Seahawks rams pretty interesting being that it is the third meeting.
We'll be talking about both those games a lot. But yeah,
I just I now allocate most of my time out
of college basketball, so I will plug big Bets on
(03:23):
Campus Podcast. I will be making my return this week
later this week breaking down the weekend card. We have
live shows coming up either starting this week or next.
So yeah, I won't have that like that void feeling
until after the college basketball National Championship.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
For people that are wanting to add college basketball to
their repertoire this time of year, since we are a
couple of months away from March, is now the time
to hop in. If you have not bet any college
basketball yet or are you too are you already too
late to the party to really have any idea of
what's going on.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
I mean, I always tell people that if you wanted to, like,
if you if you're just like starting from scratch, and
the college basketball market is much tougher to beat. I
mean every year it gets tougher to be, like like
all markets, but especially in college basketball. I think it
was like exponentially easier to beat five years ago. The
tax on certain spots and just the market is just
(04:25):
smarter overall. But I always tell people, just like, look,
there's you think there's a lot of teams in college football,
there are triple that in college basketball. So I always
tell people if you're like just diving in, you know,
and if you're just doing it recreationally for fun, who
(04:45):
cares just at the TV games, But if you want
to like just try and get an edge or try
and handicap these games, like just focus on one conference.
Much easier to do than trying to like stare at
a board and follow every single team like I try
to do most people.
Speaker 4 (05:06):
You know, you have a job, you don't have time
to do that.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
But just take one conference, follow it very closely, the
ebbs and flows of teams, who's been who's been getting
lucky injuries, and you kind of just get a feel
for teams. And if you just focus on one conference
and you know there might be even more opportunities for
some of the lower level conferences, although those might not
be the most appetizing for people.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
To choose, But that's what that's That would be my suggestion.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Or you know, follow someone that you find is that
you know gets free picks, that has a good track record,
and follow along, but you want to be in it
for a long haul. There's good it's a grind and
there's going to be horrible beats, like college basketball is
the the beats are just incredible, so you have to
(05:54):
be able to stomach them move on quickly. But that
would be my my advice for everyone, and into big
bets on campus week our weekend previews.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
We'll talk futures every week.
Speaker 3 (06:05):
Myself, I think my guy Route is going to be
doing them with me as well, who's super sharp. But
there's a lot of resources out there too, so yeah,
just tune into the podcast.
Speaker 4 (06:16):
More to come there.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
I'm excited to get raked over the Coles during March Madness,
but definitely pay attention to everything Stuck He's got going
on there. One more thought on the amateur level, Kendra,
did you ever think we'd see a day where Indiana
would be hoisting a national championship before. I mean fit
in your favorite NFL team here, the Cleveland Browns. I
(06:39):
never thought i'd see this in my life. Here we
are deserving champion before several of the only thirty two
NFL teams have ever hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
I can't say that I'm surprised, because I feel like
in college, if you're really dedicated to spending the money now,
you can kind of put together any kind of team
that you want. Yes, they got lucky not having I
wouldn't say lucky. They worked very hard and had very
good game plans, but lucky in the sense that not
having a single five star recruit paid off for them
with that ability to have the underdog mentality. But I
(07:12):
have to say it was a way better game than
I thought it would be. I'll give Miami their flowers. However,
I have seen some tweets flying today and I'm not
sure if they're real or not, And if they are,
I'm very disappointed. Apparently Carson Beck did not shake Mendoza's
hand after the game. Is this true, Stucky?
Speaker 3 (07:30):
I don't know to tell you the truth. I know
that Fletcher got a lot of shit for the I
think he threw like a punch, but he saw that
embraced him, which is good to say. But I don't know.
I didn't see. I didn't see any of the handshakes.
(07:52):
After I got I officially became a parent. After the game,
I got pooped on for the first time changing a
diaper like a whoa. My wife's usually the diaper changer.
I wasn't ready for that.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
It's one of the things people don't tell you when
you have a kid, is the sludge that comes out
of these kids. It's the weirdest thing.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
It's thank you for my free birth control today boys now,
INDI I think that what Indiana obviously kind of.
Speaker 3 (08:24):
It's a symbol of the changing landscape in college football.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
Right.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
This is a sport that's.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Been dominated by a handful of teams every year for
a decade since the college football playoff started. And now
you know, with everyone being able to pay, and you
don't just have these teams that are your perennial powers,
(08:55):
there's going to be opportunities for other teams to rise up.
I mean, look at a team like vander Built. You
know they were a perennial basement bottom feeder and now
you know, they were right on the doorstep of making
the college fotball playoff. You have Indiana, I mean, one
of the most losingest programs in collegeable history now winning
(09:18):
a national title. I mean, unfathomable if you would have
said that five years ago. So I think it's good
for the sport. The sport still has some things to
figure out as far as regulating all of this and
maybe fixing the calendar a bit, but I think that
it's it's kind of fitting that it was a you know,
(09:40):
a team like Indiana in this new college football world
and then applying it to the NFL. It's you know,
we saw this year the impact of new coaches and
how much of an impact they can have on a team,
and just one season and we're gonna, you know, we're
(10:03):
going into a crazy coaching cycle. I think the NFC
North is the only division without a coaching change. Don't
quote me on that, Hevan, can you check that real quick.
But so there's a ton of coaching changes, but we
saw this past year. So we'll see which teams are gonna,
you know, really benefit from those coaching changes. But we
(10:25):
just saw this past year. Ben Johnson had the Bears on,
you know, the doorstep of an NFC championship game. Look
at the Seahawks the one seed and what McDonald has
done there with that defense. We saw the Jags with
Liam Cohen, the impact of him leaving Tampa go into Jacksonville.
(10:45):
So there's countless examples of the impact that coaching and
you know, you can go down to coordinators as well,
can have on a football team. And Signetti is, you know,
the the poster child for that. There's Signetty. Sure what
a job he's done. But yeah, I think that it's
kind of the year of coaching and we have some
(11:08):
really good coaches left in the NFL plaufs. I mean
McVeigh McDonald is you know, that's that's football porn. And
you can go back the first meeting, McDonald dominated and
which is funny because McDonald dominated McVeigh in the first meeting,
but the Rams won, and then McVeigh dominated McDonald in
(11:35):
the second meeting.
Speaker 4 (11:37):
And the Seahawks won. You can even go back to Baltimore.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
M McVeigh dominated McDonald in when the Rams went to
Baltimore and Baltimore at the number one defense, but the
Baltimore won in overtime. So interesting to note, but that
is like football porn. McDonald verus mcvayh. And what makes
that tough to break down is you know that they're
(12:06):
like McVeigh is a tendency breaker right in high leverage games,
so he'll come up with something that you know that
McDonald's not going to be expecting. And I mean, you
look at the two meetings this year. They had their
first meeting where they didn't have much success, to the
second meeting they completely flipped their use of thirteen personnel.
(12:27):
And that was one of the things late in the
season that was just something that no teams could match
up with the three tight ends on the field. They
didn't have a ton of success against Seattle as much
as relative to other teams, but they had success in
that second meeting even though Seattle is built to stop
thirteen personnel because of Nick and Emon Moorey, and they
ran at Emon Worrey. One of the things they really
(12:48):
did well in that second meeting, they just ran right
at them. But then last week McVeigh abandoned thirteen personnel
went back to his roots of eleven personnel. I don't
know why, I mean, the Bears are one of the
worst defenses in the league.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
I would think it was rather related, but.
Speaker 3 (13:05):
Like you would want to go heavier personnel, more tight
ends and run at the Bears. I mean, the Bears
are the worst bid that the highest exposive play rate
allowed of any defense against thirteen personnel. So I don't
know if that was to throw off the Seahawks a bit.
(13:26):
I don't know, But I just don't know what I'm
what to expect from McVeigh. But I do know that
you can probably expect a curveball formationwise, so.
Speaker 4 (13:35):
I'm looking forward to that.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
And McDonald came out and said, because they gave up
five hundred and eighty one yards, I'm rambling, by the way,
but they gave up five hundred and eighty one yards
in Week sixteen to the Rams who didn't have Donson,
didn't have Adams, and that was on a short week,
and the Seahawks were completely healthy outside of their left
tackle who might miss this game too. But McDonald came
(13:57):
out and said, we tried too many new things on
a short week, so what are his adjustments because they
were kind of lost in that game. So super interesting game.
I'm really looking forward to the coaching matchup in that game.
That's a long wind answer and saying long winded way
of saying, Sig did a great job.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
Yeah, go Hoosiers. I don't know if you guys can
tell which game Stucky is more excited about ram Seahawks
or Patriots Broncos. The coaching clinic between those two on
the NFC side is going to be great. That was
one of the things I'm glad you brought up coaching.
I do want to get to a couple of the
new hires, but I was looking at the commonalities between
(14:37):
the four teams that are still in the race, and
solid quarterback play is of course always going to be
part of it, and that kind of gets thrown out
the window because we have a stidham game defense. All
these teams ranked top eleven and EPA pri play and coaching,
those are the two most common factors that I could find.
These teams are kind of all over the place when
(14:59):
you look at things like third down conversion percentage, how
good are they in the red zone, how good are
they defending the red zone all the how good are
they in terms of running the ball. These teams are
kind of all over the board, But in terms of
what do they have in common defense and coaching? Is
there anything else, Kendra, off the top of your head
that you think I'm missing as far as key traits
(15:22):
that all four teams have that are still on the hunt.
Speaker 2 (15:27):
That's a good question that I wasn't prepared for you
to ask me. I'm gonna I'm gonna say I don't
think so. The only thing that I really kind of
am looking at outside of everything that stuck you just
kind of mentioned and that you mentioned Matt Stafford and
McVeigh having the experience piece is kind of the way
(15:48):
that I'm approaching that game. I know that a lot
of people are gonna look at defense. I know a
lot of people are gonna look at who's injured. I
think the experience piece is the biggest part about it,
which is another reason we can talk about it later.
Like that, I'm looking at maybe the Broncos as well
because of Sean Payton.
Speaker 3 (16:04):
So I would also say that Sean, I mean I
mentioned coaching. I'm excited about coaching that game, but I'm
also excited about what Peyton will.
Speaker 4 (16:15):
Come up with here.
Speaker 3 (16:16):
Right, he has a blank slate with no tendencies like
there's the Patriots don't aren't going to know what to expect, although,
which makes what makes that game really interesting. Peyton hand
picked Sidham I think for a reason. He obviously saw
something that he liked and he was I think it
(16:37):
was his first signing, his first free agent signing after
he got to Denver. But McDaniels also knows Sidham very
well right that draft, he was with them in New England,
went with him to to Vegas, so there that he
knows his strengths and weaknesses. So how does that play?
Speaker 2 (16:54):
And Bo and Jarrett have known each other forever because
of Auburn.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
Yep, so so that that's that's certainly interesting. And I
will say the we we still don't know exactly like
where to I still I'm not fully confident in how
good the Patriots are and we're going in the conference
championship weekend. I mean they haven't They've played backup quarterbacks,
(17:21):
hurt offenses or backup quarterbacks all year and that and
what happened in the playoffs. They played you know, a
team without a two Pro Bowl tackles and a hurt backfield,
and you know, then they played the Texans who didn't
have their starting right tackle, they lost their starting tight
end in the first quarter, they lost, they didn't have
their starting wide receiver, their top wide receiver, one of
(17:41):
the best in the NFL. But then then this week
they're gonna get stit them. And then the other thing
is they haven't played. Their schedule of opposing defenses was
also a joke. They've played like no top ten defenses
the entire year outside of the Browns, and the Browns
on the road aren't the same defense. And then they
finally faced two top five defenses, and Drake May has
(18:02):
six fumbles and two interceptions and has not looked great.
I mean, his EPA per play is right there with
Stroud for the playoffs. So can the Denver defense cause
the New England offense to have some of the same
issues and cause turnovers. If so, you know, then they
might not have to hit a huge number, especially if
(18:22):
their defense can give him a short field or even
put a score up on the board. So but I'm
excited to see what Peyton draws up and see how
he's generally a really good, really good coach against the Blitz.
And that's what the Patriots have been doing lately. I
mean they blitzed the last four weeks forty three, forty
four percent, forty five percent. That's how they're generating pressure.
(18:44):
Stroud's really bad against the blitz The Chargers had no
offensive line. The thing that Stidham that's going for him
this week is his offensive line. He's one of, if
not the best offensive lines in the NFL, So that
that's huge for a backup, right, like just a good,
good play caller and a really good offensive line. We'll
see the situation at center. Wattenberg might be back, forsythe
(19:04):
got hurt, he might be ready, we'll see. But having
a really good offensive line at home Denver's not an
easy place to play at also, But that's huge because
you go back he started two games in twenty twenty
three with the Broncos. That Broncos offensive line is horrible.
They were thirty first in pressure allowed twenty twenty two
Raiders and both those offenses were bad like twenty six
(19:25):
DVA twenty fifth y VA twenty twenty two Raiders. They
were twenty sixth in pressure allowed. This Broncos offensive line
is one of the best in terms of pressure allowed,
so that should be a big step and just like
an area of comfort for Stidham, and I'd expect the
pitchers aren't gonna be able to get a ton of pressure
without blitzing. So what does Peyton's answer to that blitz like?
(19:46):
What does his screen game look like? That's what I'm
looking forward to there.
Speaker 1 (19:49):
Before we get back into the games, we were talking
about coaching and how impactful these new coaches can be.
We had some big time coaching movement across the league
since the last time we spoke. Robert to the Titans,
Kevin Stefanski to the Atlanta Falcons. Sean McDermott has been
fired in Buffalo, half Ley hired in Miami. Kendra your
(20:09):
favorite and least favorite move so far, So it can
be a hiring, a firing, any of the above.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
I'm gonna say my least favorite is Robert Sali going
to the Titans. You can't convince me that their feud
and them hating each other did not fuel the Titans
wanting to get him because it's an easy get up
spot twice a season for both teams now, and if
you think about it in the long term, who else
is there to hate in the division? Indianapolis is going
(20:38):
to suck. The Texans are now struggling with their CJ.
Stroud situation. Wanting to hate the Jags and beat the
Jags is probably the number one thing that you want
to consider when hiring someone right now. So I hate
that I have to cheer against him twice a season
now and maybe even three times a season considering how
often we are seeing these divisional matchups in the postseason.
(20:59):
And my favorite can I say that it has to
be McDermott, just because of the fact that his resume
and his like win percentage is really kind of laughable
and it was just an expense. How is the GM surviving?
How are they just not blowing everything up and starting over.
Speaker 1 (21:18):
It is kind of funny how time is a flat circle.
Because I've and I've seen others reference this that John
Elway very similar stylistically to Josh Allen, and you know,
it's a guy that really struggled to win as good
as he was early on in his career, and Dan
Reeves was his coach. They moved off of him, hired
(21:39):
Mike Shanahan, and then he started winning Super Bowls And
there's this and that. By the way, that documentary is
out right now on one of the many streaming services
that's out there, and so people are reliving that and
then we're also living that in the moment when and
maybe that's what happens here is I think Sean McDermott,
(22:00):
like Dan Reeves, was a good coach, but they needed
a shakeup, they needed to do something different. I'm curious
to see what direction they go in here, Stucky, any
thoughts on those two?
Speaker 3 (22:11):
Yeah, I mean I think it was time for McDermott,
But I mean, what about being like that the roster
construction has been so poor for the Bills.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
Like, and they're like promoting him allegedly as well.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
Yeah, I don't get that, But I do think McDermott's
a good go. I think McDermot would be a great
defensive coordinator somewhere. But my I mean, my my least
favorite is probably Halfway. Like you're bringing him in to Miami,
which needs a rebuild, and like Halfley's only head coaching
(22:45):
experience was at Boston College.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
Like, I.
Speaker 3 (22:48):
Don't know if that's necessarily the best hire, but shocker,
the Dolphins make a move that doesn't make sense.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
And goo on that one. The fact that all I'm
hearing is he he's a culture guy. Like that's that's
like saying the girl that you started dating is a
good personality. That just means that she's probably she's probably ugly,
and that's how it feels here.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
And then what my favorite is by far As Stefanski.
I do think he's a good coach. I think he's
a good offensive mind. I mean, look, this is the guy.
He just got a roll a deal. You're in Cleveland
with the Watson contract and it's Cleveland and he still
won what Coach of the Year twice, But just going
(23:33):
from Raheem Morris to Stefanski I think is a huge upgrade.
I mean, Morris and that coaching staff was just so
incompetent in so many different ways. And the Falcons have pieces.
I mean, you know about their talent on offense, there's
talent for days that the skill positions. The offensive line
(23:55):
is solid. And then we saw the defense this year
take a major step forward because they were able to
address their lack of edge rush and pressure in the
draft and they finally had a defense that could get pressure.
And then you know, you have some exciting other pieces.
Bowman Watts looks like a you know future all Pro.
(24:18):
So that's an exciting team in a division that just
like can you imagine at the Falcons like they didn't.
I mean they finished tied for first and they lost
like three or four, four maybe five games. They should
have won that division is so gettable if they just
had like a competent coaching staff and special teams. And
(24:42):
I think that they fixed the first one. I mean
that team wins eleven games this year and they would
not have been an easy out in the playoffs. So
I think that was a really good hire by Blank.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
We are about to hand out some action able advice
for this weekend's games in the NFL Plant the Flag
games coming up, But first a word from our very
own Kendra Middleton.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
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Speaker 1 (25:42):
All right, Kendra? Before we plant the flag, we've got
Evan Abrams joining us as well for his weekly primer
What is on your mind today?
Speaker 3 (25:51):
What Sells?
Speaker 2 (26:02):
So we've been talking about coaching and it's obviously the
biggest kind of storyline this week, especially with the McDermott
news and all of the hirings and everything going on.
Which if you Dinsky winds up going to the Browns Rip,
if you'd rather go to Cleveland than be with Trevor,
Lawrence and Jacksonville see a pizza? However, would you this
(26:22):
has been really bothering me because of the McDermott thing
and everybody else. Would you rather be fire? What would
be worse or better on your mental health? Being fired
for sucking or being fired as a scapegoat? Because I
really don't know what I would. I've been sitting here
and I'm like it would really suck to be fired
for sucking, but also like how mad I would be
(26:45):
just getting fired so somebody else can be protected for
like whether it's politics or whatever. The fuck. I don't
know what I would hate more, and it honestly kind
of stresses me out a lot to think about, which
is I.
Speaker 1 (26:57):
Think I'd rather I would rather be fired as a scapegoat,
because if you suck, that's got to ding the confidence
more than anything else. At least you can move forward,
find another job and feel like you are competent in
the field that you're in. If you get fired because
you suck, you have a lot of reevaluation that you've
(27:19):
got to take into account.
Speaker 2 (27:21):
But sometimes I don't know if people know they suck,
So it's like ignorance is bliss. And that's the part
of it that I argue with myself about, is like
I feel like so many people just don't know that
they suck.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
They blame for those for those people, and they would
never answer it this way because they don't know they suck.
So it's kind of like real endless loop here. Those
people should they should want to get fired because they suck,
because then they can have an awakening and that's a
beautiful thing to have. So you know, perhaps I don't know.
Maybe I'm even changing my answer. Maybe I'm worse at
certain jobs than I realize, and I should be let go.
(27:55):
Don't talk to the action overlords about this. But yeah,
maybe that's the way to look, because there's no self
evaluation if you get fired as a scapegoat.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
So I don't know.
Speaker 1 (28:06):
I think I think I may have changed my answer. Well,
you studies as I talk myself into many circles here.
Speaker 3 (28:13):
I don't even know what you're saying, but I it
kind of reminds me of like the better than average effect.
Like seventy percent of people I think somewhere around there
think that they have higher than average intelligence. So shoutut
to those thirty percent that just know that they're not smart.
Speaker 4 (28:33):
Amen.
Speaker 2 (28:34):
So uh, I don't know about fuck.
Speaker 3 (28:38):
So yeah, but I think I I think I agree
with your first take, Brandon, for.
Speaker 1 (28:46):
Us, before I started talking, you started sliding then the
slot into vapid nothingness.
Speaker 2 (28:53):
This is how I get to these places though, as
I just like talk myself into the depths of hell.
Speaker 1 (28:59):
That's the thing, you know, you gotta you have to
take into account both sides here. So you know, I
immediately dismissed the fired because you suck thing. But there's
there's at least merit to that. I think if you're
someone that lacks self awareness, that could be a beneficial
thing for you to then be able to grab hold
of what reality actually is. Is that a more succinct
(29:21):
version of what we're looking for here? I'll take it
all right, Winter Winter chicken dinner. Let's plant the flag
presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
Shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 1 (29:36):
Okay, you're really planting your flag in that thic. We
have two games to choose from, but thank you to
the sports books like Draft Kings that are out there
that give us an endless buffet of things to choose from.
I'll go ahead and get us started today because I'm
gonna choose from the derivative buffet. Patriots Broncos first half
under will be where I plant my flag. I have
(29:58):
not bet a side for these games yet, so I
had to look off the board a little bit. Under
twenty and a half is the number that I'm looking
at here. I just can't imagine that this is going
to be an aggressively played game by either coach, especially
early on. Vrabel has to know that he can park
the bus for four quarters, don't let the Broncos defense
(30:18):
create momentum with turnovers like we've seen in some of
these other games, and eventually just banking on the fact
that Stidham is going to fold. On that same line
of thinking, the Broncos are likely going to struggle to
score period because of their quarterback play. Even with bow Knicks,
they ranked sixteenth in the NFL in terms of first
half points per game. Eleven point four is what they
(30:39):
were averaging with a better quarterback, and the Patriots defense
has been lights out so far in the playoffs, averaging
under ten points per game in the postseason so far.
Denver's defense obviously elite first in sacks, second yards allowed,
and all of those things. So I think we're going
to see an insane effort from the Broncos defensively and
a really low scoring game out of the gate between
(31:02):
these two Patriots. Broncos under twenty and a half is
my plant the flag. Kendra.
Speaker 2 (31:08):
We kind of talked about it a little bit on Sunday,
and then Stucky has talked a little bit about it today,
but my thought process is definitely just that the Patriots
played a really tough defense for the first time last week.
Drake May has had some fumble problems this postseason. The
Broncos defense not that much of a drop off from
the Texans in my opinion, I think that if they
can disturb Drake May from the beginning, the Broncos have
(31:29):
a shot at covering this five and a half. I also,
like I said, love the experience piece of Sean Payton.
I think he's going to be prepared. I think Jarrett's
going to be prepared, and I almost kind of think
that I always prefer these situations where it's that cornered
cap mentality. The Broncos kind of know that they have
nothing in everything to play for at the same time,
which I think, I agree with what Stucky said on Sunday,
(31:50):
just takes so much pressure off of them and puts
it all back on New England. And historically, like I
mentioned Sunday, New England does not play well in Denver
in the postseason and it's a really tough place to play.
So I don't think that the five and a half
is going to get any better. I think if anything,
it's gonna get worse. So take a five and a
half on dropkings while you can get it. I did
it this morning. That's where I'm at.
Speaker 1 (32:11):
Stuck.
Speaker 3 (32:13):
Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Broncos too. I'm kind
of it looks like it's coming down. I might play
for five and a half. I was waiting to see
if we get six six and a half. I just
wasn't sure where the market was going to go with this.
But I you know, I mean, like we just saw
the Broncos close as what one and a half point
favorites over the Bills. The Bills are power and higher
than the Patriots in market. I think the Bills are
(32:35):
an overall better team and I can't I can't make
the adjustment from Nicks. I mean, you mentioned like their
offense like fourteenth in points per game in first Their
passing offense I think is like fourteenth or fifteenth. Dvoa
like Nix is like an average quarterback who has like
above average flashes, but he's not elite. He's not in
the elite tier. I can't make this drop off seven points.
(32:59):
That's crazy. And again, the Patriots going on the road.
Denver is not an easy place to play for an
inexperienced quarterback. I mean, especially in January. I mean that
the Broncos have only been home dogs in January five
times in the past twenty five years. They've covered all
five games, including twice in the playoffs. They beat the
Patriots and they won a seven to that point dogs
(33:19):
with Tim Tebow as the quarterback over the Steelers a
bit ago. Peyton elite as a dog sixty one forty
two and two fifty nine percent, sixty seven percent.
Speaker 4 (33:31):
Against the spreadman catching over a.
Speaker 3 (33:33):
Field goal, and I just think that a lot of
the intangibles are working in Denver's favor. You have, you're
at home, you have nothing to lose. All of the
pressure is on the Patriots now, and they don't have
film on your tendencies, and I think that that uncertainty
(33:53):
can work in their favor if they can just put
a couple of drives together and score in the red
zone against the defense that's one of the worst in
the league defending in the redsidt Before last week, they
were getting up touchdowns on ninety five percent of goal
to go drives ninety five percent. I don't think they
faced forced a field goal in the regular season in
a goal to go situation, so they finish off a
(34:16):
couple of the drives you're able to put together, surprise
him early, get the screen game going. Like this Patriots team.
I mean last week they looked awful and Stroud was
just that much worse. And they didn't even look great
against the Chargers. It just Herbert was so bad. And
the schedule you can't not talk about it. It's the
(34:38):
easiest schedule we've seen in twenty five years, and then
you could argue it's one of the easiest in playoff history.
So yeah, I and look, if you look at Stidham,
as I mentioned before, we only had two starts, it
could be a complete disaster. It could, but I actually
don't think he's that bad. I think he's like one
of the better backups in the league. There's a reason
why Peyton went and targeted him. But like he started
(35:02):
two games with the Broncos, two games with the Raiders,
those were horrendous offenses with horrendous offensive lines, and he
was able to put a really good performance against a
good forty nine Ers defense where he threw for nearly
four hundred yards, and like I said, he's playing behind
an elite offensive line, that he has an elite play call,
he's playing at home. And then you have this Patriots
team that their offensive line is a problem. I mean
(35:26):
Will Campbell is a problem. Yeah, you have Nick Benito
who can fully take advantage and the Patriots. Not only
have the Patriots had a really easy schedule, they've been
extremely lucky.
Speaker 4 (35:38):
I've mentioned this spot.
Speaker 3 (35:39):
During the regular season, they re covered seventy three percent
of their fumbles. They were covered twelve of their twenty
fumbles and of their own fumbles and ten of their
opponents fourteen fumbles. So they were extremely lucky in fumbles.
And guess what that percentage is held in the postseason.
They've been really lucky with fumbles. Go back to last
(36:00):
week and fumble comms. Fourth downs, they were seventy three
percent on fourth downs, their opponents thirty three percent. And
again this is against one of the easiest schedules in
the league. And then so far in the playoffs they're
sixty seven percent on fourth downs their opponents are forty.
So don't be shocked if you know there's a couple bounces,
(36:20):
a couple fourth downs that go Denver's way, but I
would argue that Denver has a massive advantage in the
trenches on both sides of the ball, and they're playing
at home, and I just can't get to this number.
So yeah, I'm going to plan my flag on the Broncos.
Plus five and a half could be a nice lead
(36:42):
in to Evans Primer because I believe this would be
maybe something in the seventies, but this would be the
largest home dog in Conference Championship history.
Speaker 1 (36:52):
Evan, Well, let's bring them on Evans Tuesday Primer starts
right now, and we'll start with that. Go check it
out Actionnetwork dot com or on the Action Network app.
The Conference Championship Primer. Biggest home dog in Conference Championship history.
Speaker 5 (37:10):
Yeah, by far too right now? Five and a half
point dogs, So since the merger, it'd be the largest
home dog, and then nineteen sixty eight we had a
larger one, but I believe seating back then was just
kind of randomized, so you had like a home team
that just wasn't as good in that spot. So really,
since we've had seating, this is kind of unprecedented.
Speaker 6 (37:32):
And then you have this stat So.
Speaker 5 (37:34):
The Bears closed at three and a half last week,
but there were some fours out there, and when the
line closes plus four higher home dogs four plus points
nine to zero against the spread last fifty years in
the playoffs, who and you count the Panthers who covered
against the Rams. So this line massive. I'm stuck. I
kind of like the Broncos in this spot. I just
feel like Peyton will be figuring things out coming with schemes,
(37:58):
and the Patriots don have a lot of film to
go off of, which is difficult.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
You know, it looks like we hit a resistance point
at six. I was shopping around to see what other
books or what they were offering. We hit six with
Denver for a moment that came back down across the
board to five and a half. Same thing for the
other game that we haven't talked as much about because
all of our plant the flags are on the AFC
Championship game, but the Rams got up to three and
(38:26):
now are two and a half in most places that
you look, including on draft kings. Now, part of that
could also be injury related, because Charles Cross is questionable.
Sam Darnold still on the injury report he was last week.
He's probably gonna play Zach Sharboney out for the year,
so all things that you should be aware of here.
(38:46):
Have you seen the same sort of market resistance Evan
as you've looked up and down these lines, and how
it pertains to what you've done.
Speaker 6 (38:55):
Yeah, open one and a half.
Speaker 5 (38:57):
It's just I don't see I don't see this game
being a three points spread, Like I just don't see
the necessity to be giving three full points to the
only duo who has experience in this situation. Like it
just kind of doesn't make sense, makes sense when especially
when you look at the matchups, Like the last game,
the Rams dominated that game, like ignoring the final result
(39:18):
and rewatching it. It was complete domination until you had
like a late game flip.
Speaker 3 (39:22):
So I mean, take a point conversion without that fluky
like pick up of rat pass, the Rams win, have
the one seaton.
Speaker 4 (39:30):
They're oasting this game.
Speaker 5 (39:31):
But to be fair as well, to be fair as well,
we've the Rams have been kind of I don't want
to say overvalue in the market, but like they are
zero to two against the spread in the playoffs, so
I mean that doesn't matter this week when you're underdogs,
but I mean being in that spot, they're the only
team in history to not cover wild card and divisional
and still be here in the conference championship and then
(39:53):
third straight road game two for the Rams, which is
always a difficult task. Regular season playoffs, the numbers are
really really tough when you have to do that. It's
thirty eight percent since two thousand and two regular season
or postseason, and then when you get to the.
Speaker 6 (40:08):
Playoffs, twelve and thirty, which is not great numbers.
Speaker 2 (40:13):
Are you worried about Sam Donald at all?
Speaker 4 (40:15):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (40:15):
I mean that's definitely like the Rams have a better
offensive line, better receivers, the better quarterback. The Seahawks clearly
had the better defense, but I think that like they
can get pressure too, And we've seen Donald make like
he should have his pick should have ended that it
took a punt return, His pick should have ended the
(40:37):
second game is an awful pick. He threw a million
picks in the first meeting. And the Rams can get
pressure and that's when Donald really melts down. And this
offense has not been great for a month and a half.
It just gets masked because they their defense scores, their
special teams score, and they go up so big on teams.
But this offense has kind of been figured out a bit.
(40:59):
I mean, even if you if you remove garbage time,
if you remove garbage time. Since week thirteen, they're twenty
seventh in epapri play fifteenth and success rate. And they've
played the Panthers and the forty nine ers twice over
the past three games, and the forty nine Ers had
like no defense, and yeah, the Rams dominated that game.
I won a three in that game. Basically, I don't
(41:19):
even if it's like minus one twenty. I'm fine with
that too. That's what I'm I'm waiting for, because you
go back.
Speaker 4 (41:25):
I bet the.
Speaker 3 (41:25):
Seahawks plus one in the first meeting. Well, in the
second meeting in week sixteen, it closed minus one, minus
one and a half dead wrong side, dead wrong side.
The Rams should have won that game. They dominated that
game five to eighty one to four fifteen yardage edge.
And that's even what the Seahawks playing from behind.
Speaker 4 (41:46):
And there's they.
Speaker 3 (41:49):
Had no atoms, no dots in, no lake on the
defensive end, and the Seahawks were fully healthy. So you're
gonna tell me now this should be three. Now I
get like that. It's worth noting the Seahawks have a
special team's edge, big special team's edge, and the situation
isn't great, right, it's your third straight road game after
(42:09):
overtime on right, And then the Seahawks had a buy
and then a laugher where they didn't have to exude
anything and they get to stay at home. So like situationally,
But we've only seen over the past twenty years two
teams after an overtime game on the road go on
the road again, and both those teams, I mean it's
sampatized too. Both those teams rolled the next week, so
(42:32):
they and they dominated the next week. Mcveigh's only had
three straight road games one time came back in twenty eighteen.
They won by thirty eight and in that season, the
Patriots beat the Rams in the Super Bowl, So maybe
that's a sign of things that come. But yeah, I
(42:53):
just want to three in that game. But to answer
your original question, and yeah, I think we certainly have
to be worried about Donald here against the pressure of
the rems, especially if the Seahawks left tackles out in
their backup is banged up too, so that could certainly
be a major issue in that game. So yeah, I
(43:14):
think it's natural to I think it makes sense it's
logical to worry about Donald. But to Evan's point, the
Rams haven't been playing since that meltdown against the Seahawks.
It's just every week something is off right, like the
defense gets shredded, or like last week Stafford didn't look right.
So there's just been something off with the Rams, and
(43:36):
like the Seahawks kind of keep the sending with that
defense just seemingly getting better each and every week. But
Donald could certainly melt down here with a couple of
turnovers that end up costing Seattle to game.
Speaker 1 (43:48):
We've seen last week, Evan had it where when Sam
Donald's favored by a touchdown or more, he's actually been
really good against the spread. What about in tight game
situations as far as the thinner spreads two and a
half three, is that when trend wise we should be
(44:09):
concerned about backing Sam Darnold.
Speaker 6 (44:12):
You look at those numbers right now as I'm reloading
my screen.
Speaker 5 (44:14):
But to look at Stuck's point as well, you look
at EPA per play since week ten, the Patriots are
first offensive ep per play, the Rams are second, the
Seahawks are nineteenth. So if you just look at how
that's rolled recently, like I just think either of these
teams can be off when there's usually consistency when a
(44:35):
team makes a conference championship, and you're just not getting
that this year. So I just find it really fascinating
that you've got both of these teams in this spot
because Seattle like really just hasn't needed to be that
type of team, Like it hasn't mattered for them, which
intriguing nonetheless.
Speaker 6 (44:53):
So Sam Darnold career against the spread when the spread
is four or less either direction, I mean, pretty decent.
Speaker 5 (45:01):
He is twenty seven and twenty five, but that just
takes a lot of teams. In fact, when he's with Seattle,
he's seven and three against the spread, So he's been
pretty decent in that spot. And even if you take
in Minnesota, it's thirteen eight and one, So covering numbers
either direction not not terrible.
Speaker 1 (45:17):
Yeah, good stuff. Gohe and check it out actionnetwork dot
com or on the Action Network app. It's Evans Conference
Championship primer to recap our plant the Flag picks presented
by DraftKings. Kendra has the Broncos plus five and a
half against New England. Stucky Broncos plus five and a
half against the Patriots and I am on the Patriots
(45:39):
Broncos first half under at twenty and a half points.
Those are our Plant the Flag games presented by Draft Kings.
The Crown is yours. That'll do it for today's episode
special thanks to our producers David Paine and Gifford Gold.
By the time we come back on Thursday, we'll have
a play on Seahawks Rams a lot more to dive
(46:00):
into as far as that game goes on which side
we eventually land on between the Seahawks and the Rams.
Go and check out the Action Network YouTube page where
we will of course be back on Thursday with our
official plays in the conference championship games. Nominate our two
Kings and a Queen parlay and all that good stuff
for Kendrim, Middleton and Stuckey. I'm Brandon Kravitz. We'll see
(46:21):
you next time you're on the favorites.
Speaker 2 (46:33):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, back
at it with my peoples. The first Lady of the pod,
Kendra Middleton, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation Stuckey, whose
college football season just ended. On today's episode, We've got
our plant the Flag game for the conference championship games,
(00:32):
Kendra's Deepest Darkest thoughts, and Evans Tuesday primer. You can't
start a betting week without it. Only three games left, Kendra?
Is it time to rejoice or is it time to cry?
Speaker 2 (00:48):
I thought that I was going to be excited to
get a break and for the weather to get warmer
and everything. But last week, when there was no football
on like the normal prime time slots, I got really sad.
So I'm going to go with sad just because I
do miss football when it's not on, But I also
miss the routine of football when it's not on.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Yeah, then to agree with that, I miss the full slates.
We've got two great games left and then a two
week build up for what will hopefully be a game
that doesn't involve Jared Steadham or any backup quarterback action stucky?
What about you? How do you reconcile with this time
of year? Any emotions flowing through that noggin?
Speaker 3 (01:30):
I mean it isn't it's stunning to watch like a
national title just one football game. The commercials are just incessant. Yeah,
especially because you used to watching like a million games once.
But it's it's college basketball season for me, so it's
I'll have that feeling in April. So I just kind
(01:56):
of shift my Like the preparation now for football games
is so much easier, so I just take all that
time dedicated to college basketball. But really we're looking into
just four teams now there's no college football, so that's in.
Speaker 4 (02:13):
The rear view mirror.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
And I in one of the games this weekend is
just like there's not much. There's not a ton to
break down, Like you just have to make a decision
on if you want to bet the Patriots Broncos game, Like,
what do you think the drop off is from Nicks
(02:38):
to Stidham, who hasn't played in a game in seven
hundred and fifty days. If you think it's too much,
you bet in the Broncos. If you don't think it's
enough you'll probably bet the Patriots, and that's kind of
the decision point. It's not like you're going and breaking
down what the Broncos offense look like with Stidham this year.
There's just nothing, So that one isn't like there's not
(03:02):
a lot of time to be spent on that game.
Seahawks rams pretty interesting being that it is the third meeting.
We'll be talking about both those games a lot. But yeah,
I just I now allocate most of my time out
of college basketball, so I will plug big Bets on
(03:23):
Campus Podcast. I will be making my return this week
later this week breaking down the weekend card. We have
live shows coming up either starting this week or next.
So yeah, I won't have that like that void feeling
until after the college basketball National Championship.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
For people that are wanting to add college basketball to
their repertoire this time of year, since we are a
couple of months away from March, is now the time
to hop in. If you have not bet any college
basketball yet or are you too are you already too
late to the party to really have any idea of
what's going on.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
I mean, I always tell people that if you wanted to, like,
if you if you're just like starting from scratch, and
the college basketball market is much tougher to beat. I
mean every year it gets tougher to be, like like
all markets, but especially in college basketball. I think it
was like exponentially easier to beat five years ago. The
tax on certain spots and just the market is just
(04:25):
smarter overall. But I always tell people, just like, look,
there's you think there's a lot of teams in college football,
there are triple that in college basketball. So I always
tell people if you're like just diving in, you know,
and if you're just doing it recreationally for fun, who
(04:45):
cares just at the TV games, But if you want
to like just try and get an edge or try
and handicap these games, like just focus on one conference.
Much easier to do than trying to like stare at
a board and follow every single team like I try
to do most people.
Speaker 4 (05:06):
You know, you have a job, you don't have time
to do that.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
But just take one conference, follow it very closely, the
ebbs and flows of teams, who's been who's been getting
lucky injuries, and you kind of just get a feel
for teams. And if you just focus on one conference
and you know there might be even more opportunities for
some of the lower level conferences, although those might not
be the most appetizing for people.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
To choose, But that's what that's That would be my suggestion.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Or you know, follow someone that you find is that
you know gets free picks, that has a good track record,
and follow along, but you want to be in it
for a long haul. There's good it's a grind and
there's going to be horrible beats, like college basketball is
the the beats are just incredible, so you have to
(05:54):
be able to stomach them move on quickly. But that
would be my my advice for everyone, and into big
bets on campus week our weekend previews.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
We'll talk futures every week.
Speaker 3 (06:05):
Myself, I think my guy Route is going to be
doing them with me as well, who's super sharp. But
there's a lot of resources out there too, so yeah,
just tune into the podcast.
Speaker 4 (06:16):
More to come there.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
I'm excited to get raked over the Coles during March Madness,
but definitely pay attention to everything Stuck He's got going
on there. One more thought on the amateur level, Kendra,
did you ever think we'd see a day where Indiana
would be hoisting a national championship before. I mean fit
in your favorite NFL team here, the Cleveland Browns. I
(06:39):
never thought i'd see this in my life. Here we
are deserving champion before several of the only thirty two
NFL teams have ever hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
I can't say that I'm surprised, because I feel like
in college, if you're really dedicated to spending the money now,
you can kind of put together any kind of team
that you want. Yes, they got lucky not having I
wouldn't say lucky. They worked very hard and had very
good game plans, but lucky in the sense that not
having a single five star recruit paid off for them
with that ability to have the underdog mentality. But I
(07:12):
have to say it was a way better game than
I thought it would be. I'll give Miami their flowers. However,
I have seen some tweets flying today and I'm not
sure if they're real or not, And if they are,
I'm very disappointed. Apparently Carson Beck did not shake Mendoza's
hand after the game. Is this true, Stucky?
Speaker 3 (07:30):
I don't know to tell you the truth. I know
that Fletcher got a lot of shit for the I
think he threw like a punch, but he saw that
embraced him, which is good to say. But I don't know.
I didn't see. I didn't see any of the handshakes.
(07:52):
After I got I officially became a parent. After the game,
I got pooped on for the first time changing a
diaper like a whoa. My wife's usually the diaper changer.
I wasn't ready for that.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
It's one of the things people don't tell you when
you have a kid, is the sludge that comes out
of these kids. It's the weirdest thing.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
It's thank you for my free birth control today boys now,
INDI I think that what Indiana obviously kind of.
Speaker 3 (08:24):
It's a symbol of the changing landscape in college football.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
Right.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
This is a sport that's.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Been dominated by a handful of teams every year for
a decade since the college football playoff started. And now
you know, with everyone being able to pay, and you
don't just have these teams that are your perennial powers,
(08:55):
there's going to be opportunities for other teams to rise up.
I mean, look at a team like vander Built. You
know they were a perennial basement bottom feeder and now
you know, they were right on the doorstep of making
the college fotball playoff. You have Indiana, I mean, one
of the most losingest programs in collegeable history now winning
(09:18):
a national title. I mean, unfathomable if you would have
said that five years ago. So I think it's good
for the sport. The sport still has some things to
figure out as far as regulating all of this and
maybe fixing the calendar a bit, but I think that
it's it's kind of fitting that it was a you know,
(09:40):
a team like Indiana in this new college football world
and then applying it to the NFL. It's you know,
we saw this year the impact of new coaches and
how much of an impact they can have on a team,
and just one season and we're gonna, you know, we're
(10:03):
going into a crazy coaching cycle. I think the NFC
North is the only division without a coaching change. Don't
quote me on that, Hevan, can you check that real quick.
But so there's a ton of coaching changes, but we
saw this past year. So we'll see which teams are gonna,
you know, really benefit from those coaching changes. But we
(10:25):
just saw this past year. Ben Johnson had the Bears on,
you know, the doorstep of an NFC championship game. Look
at the Seahawks the one seed and what McDonald has
done there with that defense. We saw the Jags with
Liam Cohen, the impact of him leaving Tampa go into Jacksonville.
(10:45):
So there's countless examples of the impact that coaching and
you know, you can go down to coordinators as well,
can have on a football team. And Signetti is, you know,
the the poster child for that. There's Signetty. Sure what
a job he's done. But yeah, I think that it's
kind of the year of coaching and we have some
(11:08):
really good coaches left in the NFL plaufs. I mean
McVeigh McDonald is you know, that's that's football porn. And
you can go back the first meeting, McDonald dominated and
which is funny because McDonald dominated McVeigh in the first meeting,
but the Rams won, and then McVeigh dominated McDonald in
(11:35):
the second meeting.
Speaker 4 (11:37):
And the Seahawks won. You can even go back to Baltimore.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
M McVeigh dominated McDonald in when the Rams went to
Baltimore and Baltimore at the number one defense, but the
Baltimore won in overtime. So interesting to note, but that
is like football porn. McDonald verus mcvayh. And what makes
that tough to break down is you know that they're
(12:06):
like McVeigh is a tendency breaker right in high leverage games,
so he'll come up with something that you know that
McDonald's not going to be expecting. And I mean, you
look at the two meetings this year. They had their
first meeting where they didn't have much success, to the
second meeting they completely flipped their use of thirteen personnel.
(12:27):
And that was one of the things late in the
season that was just something that no teams could match
up with the three tight ends on the field. They
didn't have a ton of success against Seattle as much
as relative to other teams, but they had success in
that second meeting even though Seattle is built to stop
thirteen personnel because of Nick and Emon Moorey, and they
ran at Emon Worrey. One of the things they really
(12:48):
did well in that second meeting, they just ran right
at them. But then last week McVeigh abandoned thirteen personnel
went back to his roots of eleven personnel. I don't
know why, I mean, the Bears are one of the
worst defenses in the league.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
I would think it was rather related, but.
Speaker 3 (13:05):
Like you would want to go heavier personnel, more tight
ends and run at the Bears. I mean, the Bears
are the worst bid that the highest exposive play rate
allowed of any defense against thirteen personnel. So I don't
know if that was to throw off the Seahawks a bit.
(13:26):
I don't know, But I just don't know what I'm
what to expect from McVeigh. But I do know that
you can probably expect a curveball formationwise, so.
Speaker 4 (13:35):
I'm looking forward to that.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
And McDonald came out and said, because they gave up
five hundred and eighty one yards, I'm rambling, by the way,
but they gave up five hundred and eighty one yards
in Week sixteen to the Rams who didn't have Donson,
didn't have Adams, and that was on a short week,
and the Seahawks were completely healthy outside of their left
tackle who might miss this game too. But McDonald came
(13:57):
out and said, we tried too many new things on
a short week, so what are his adjustments because they
were kind of lost in that game. So super interesting game.
I'm really looking forward to the coaching matchup in that game.
That's a long wind answer and saying long winded way
of saying, Sig did a great job.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
Yeah, go Hoosiers. I don't know if you guys can
tell which game Stucky is more excited about ram Seahawks
or Patriots Broncos. The coaching clinic between those two on
the NFC side is going to be great. That was
one of the things I'm glad you brought up coaching.
I do want to get to a couple of the
new hires, but I was looking at the commonalities between
(14:37):
the four teams that are still in the race, and
solid quarterback play is of course always going to be
part of it, and that kind of gets thrown out
the window because we have a stidham game defense. All
these teams ranked top eleven and EPA pri play and coaching,
those are the two most common factors that I could find.
These teams are kind of all over the place when
(14:59):
you look at things like third down conversion percentage, how
good are they in the red zone, how good are
they defending the red zone all the how good are
they in terms of running the ball. These teams are
kind of all over the board, But in terms of
what do they have in common defense and coaching? Is
there anything else, Kendra, off the top of your head
that you think I'm missing as far as key traits
(15:22):
that all four teams have that are still on the hunt.
Speaker 2 (15:27):
That's a good question that I wasn't prepared for you
to ask me. I'm gonna I'm gonna say I don't
think so. The only thing that I really kind of
am looking at outside of everything that stuck you just
kind of mentioned and that you mentioned Matt Stafford and
McVeigh having the experience piece is kind of the way
(15:48):
that I'm approaching that game. I know that a lot
of people are gonna look at defense. I know a
lot of people are gonna look at who's injured. I
think the experience piece is the biggest part about it,
which is another reason we can talk about it later.
Like that, I'm looking at maybe the Broncos as well
because of Sean Payton.
Speaker 3 (16:04):
So I would also say that Sean, I mean I
mentioned coaching. I'm excited about coaching that game, but I'm
also excited about what Peyton will.
Speaker 4 (16:15):
Come up with here.
Speaker 3 (16:16):
Right, he has a blank slate with no tendencies like
there's the Patriots don't aren't going to know what to expect, although,
which makes what makes that game really interesting. Peyton hand
picked Sidham I think for a reason. He obviously saw
something that he liked and he was I think it
(16:37):
was his first signing, his first free agent signing after
he got to Denver. But McDaniels also knows Sidham very
well right that draft, he was with them in New England,
went with him to to Vegas, so there that he
knows his strengths and weaknesses. So how does that play?
Speaker 2 (16:54):
And Bo and Jarrett have known each other forever because
of Auburn.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
Yep, so so that that's that's certainly interesting. And I
will say the we we still don't know exactly like
where to I still I'm not fully confident in how
good the Patriots are and we're going in the conference
championship weekend. I mean they haven't They've played backup quarterbacks,
(17:21):
hurt offenses or backup quarterbacks all year and that and
what happened in the playoffs. They played you know, a
team without a two Pro Bowl tackles and a hurt backfield,
and you know, then they played the Texans who didn't
have their starting right tackle, they lost their starting tight
end in the first quarter, they lost, they didn't have
their starting wide receiver, their top wide receiver, one of
(17:41):
the best in the NFL. But then then this week
they're gonna get stit them. And then the other thing
is they haven't played. Their schedule of opposing defenses was
also a joke. They've played like no top ten defenses
the entire year outside of the Browns, and the Browns
on the road aren't the same defense. And then they
finally faced two top five defenses, and Drake May has
(18:02):
six fumbles and two interceptions and has not looked great.
I mean, his EPA per play is right there with
Stroud for the playoffs. So can the Denver defense cause
the New England offense to have some of the same
issues and cause turnovers. If so, you know, then they
might not have to hit a huge number, especially if
(18:22):
their defense can give him a short field or even
put a score up on the board. So but I'm
excited to see what Peyton draws up and see how
he's generally a really good, really good coach against the Blitz.
And that's what the Patriots have been doing lately. I
mean they blitzed the last four weeks forty three, forty
four percent, forty five percent. That's how they're generating pressure.
(18:44):
Stroud's really bad against the blitz The Chargers had no
offensive line. The thing that Stidham that's going for him
this week is his offensive line. He's one of, if
not the best offensive lines in the NFL, So that
that's huge for a backup, right, like just a good,
good play caller and a really good offensive line. We'll
see the situation at center. Wattenberg might be back, forsythe
(19:04):
got hurt, he might be ready, we'll see. But having
a really good offensive line at home Denver's not an
easy place to play at also, But that's huge because
you go back he started two games in twenty twenty
three with the Broncos. That Broncos offensive line is horrible.
They were thirty first in pressure allowed twenty twenty two
Raiders and both those offenses were bad like twenty six
(19:25):
DVA twenty fifth y VA twenty twenty two Raiders. They
were twenty sixth in pressure allowed. This Broncos offensive line
is one of the best in terms of pressure allowed,
so that should be a big step and just like
an area of comfort for Stidham, and I'd expect the
pitchers aren't gonna be able to get a ton of pressure
without blitzing. So what does Peyton's answer to that blitz like?
(19:46):
What does his screen game look like? That's what I'm
looking forward to there.
Speaker 1 (19:49):
Before we get back into the games, we were talking
about coaching and how impactful these new coaches can be.
We had some big time coaching movement across the league
since the last time we spoke. Robert to the Titans,
Kevin Stefanski to the Atlanta Falcons. Sean McDermott has been
fired in Buffalo, half Ley hired in Miami. Kendra your
(20:09):
favorite and least favorite move so far, So it can
be a hiring, a firing, any of the above.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
I'm gonna say my least favorite is Robert Sali going
to the Titans. You can't convince me that their feud
and them hating each other did not fuel the Titans
wanting to get him because it's an easy get up
spot twice a season for both teams now, and if
you think about it in the long term, who else
is there to hate in the division? Indianapolis is going
(20:38):
to suck. The Texans are now struggling with their CJ.
Stroud situation. Wanting to hate the Jags and beat the
Jags is probably the number one thing that you want
to consider when hiring someone right now. So I hate
that I have to cheer against him twice a season
now and maybe even three times a season considering how
often we are seeing these divisional matchups in the postseason.
(20:59):
And my favorite can I say that it has to
be McDermott, just because of the fact that his resume
and his like win percentage is really kind of laughable
and it was just an expense. How is the GM surviving?
How are they just not blowing everything up and starting over.
Speaker 1 (21:18):
It is kind of funny how time is a flat circle.
Because I've and I've seen others reference this that John
Elway very similar stylistically to Josh Allen, and you know,
it's a guy that really struggled to win as good
as he was early on in his career, and Dan
Reeves was his coach. They moved off of him, hired
(21:39):
Mike Shanahan, and then he started winning Super Bowls And
there's this and that. By the way, that documentary is
out right now on one of the many streaming services
that's out there, and so people are reliving that and
then we're also living that in the moment when and
maybe that's what happens here is I think Sean McDermott,
(22:00):
like Dan Reeves, was a good coach, but they needed
a shakeup, they needed to do something different. I'm curious
to see what direction they go in here, Stucky, any
thoughts on those two?
Speaker 3 (22:11):
Yeah, I mean I think it was time for McDermott,
But I mean, what about being like that the roster
construction has been so poor for the Bills.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
Like, and they're like promoting him allegedly as well.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
Yeah, I don't get that, But I do think McDermott's
a good go. I think McDermot would be a great
defensive coordinator somewhere. But my I mean, my my least
favorite is probably Halfway. Like you're bringing him in to Miami,
which needs a rebuild, and like Halfley's only head coaching
(22:45):
experience was at Boston College.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
Like, I.
Speaker 3 (22:48):
Don't know if that's necessarily the best hire, but shocker,
the Dolphins make a move that doesn't make sense.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
And goo on that one. The fact that all I'm
hearing is he he's a culture guy. Like that's that's
like saying the girl that you started dating is a
good personality. That just means that she's probably she's probably ugly,
and that's how it feels here.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
And then what my favorite is by far As Stefanski.
I do think he's a good coach. I think he's
a good offensive mind. I mean, look, this is the guy.
He just got a roll a deal. You're in Cleveland
with the Watson contract and it's Cleveland and he still
won what Coach of the Year twice, But just going
(23:33):
from Raheem Morris to Stefanski I think is a huge upgrade.
I mean, Morris and that coaching staff was just so
incompetent in so many different ways. And the Falcons have pieces.
I mean, you know about their talent on offense, there's
talent for days that the skill positions. The offensive line
(23:55):
is solid. And then we saw the defense this year
take a major step forward because they were able to
address their lack of edge rush and pressure in the
draft and they finally had a defense that could get pressure.
And then you know, you have some exciting other pieces.
Bowman Watts looks like a you know future all Pro.
(24:18):
So that's an exciting team in a division that just
like can you imagine at the Falcons like they didn't.
I mean they finished tied for first and they lost
like three or four, four maybe five games. They should
have won that division is so gettable if they just
had like a competent coaching staff and special teams. And
(24:42):
I think that they fixed the first one. I mean
that team wins eleven games this year and they would
not have been an easy out in the playoffs. So
I think that was a really good hire by Blank.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
We are about to hand out some action able advice
for this weekend's games in the NFL Plant the Flag
games coming up, But first a word from our very
own Kendra Middleton.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
The Favorites podcast is sponsored by DraftKings sports book and
in partnership with DraftKings, our listeners are getting a great
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Speaker 1 (25:42):
All right, Kendra? Before we plant the flag, we've got
Evan Abrams joining us as well for his weekly primer
What is on your mind today?
Speaker 3 (25:51):
What Sells?
Speaker 2 (26:02):
So we've been talking about coaching and it's obviously the
biggest kind of storyline this week, especially with the McDermott
news and all of the hirings and everything going on.
Which if you Dinsky winds up going to the Browns Rip,
if you'd rather go to Cleveland than be with Trevor,
Lawrence and Jacksonville see a pizza? However, would you this
(26:22):
has been really bothering me because of the McDermott thing
and everybody else. Would you rather be fire? What would
be worse or better on your mental health? Being fired
for sucking or being fired as a scapegoat? Because I
really don't know what I would. I've been sitting here
and I'm like it would really suck to be fired
for sucking, but also like how mad I would be
(26:45):
just getting fired so somebody else can be protected for
like whether it's politics or whatever. The fuck. I don't
know what I would hate more, and it honestly kind
of stresses me out a lot to think about, which
is I.
Speaker 1 (26:57):
Think I'd rather I would rather be fired as a scapegoat,
because if you suck, that's got to ding the confidence
more than anything else. At least you can move forward,
find another job and feel like you are competent in
the field that you're in. If you get fired because
you suck, you have a lot of reevaluation that you've
(27:19):
got to take into account.
Speaker 2 (27:21):
But sometimes I don't know if people know they suck,
So it's like ignorance is bliss. And that's the part
of it that I argue with myself about, is like
I feel like so many people just don't know that
they suck.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
They blame for those for those people, and they would
never answer it this way because they don't know they suck.
So it's kind of like real endless loop here. Those
people should they should want to get fired because they suck,
because then they can have an awakening and that's a
beautiful thing to have. So you know, perhaps I don't know.
Maybe I'm even changing my answer. Maybe I'm worse at
certain jobs than I realize, and I should be let go.
(27:55):
Don't talk to the action overlords about this. But yeah,
maybe that's the way to look, because there's no self
evaluation if you get fired as a scapegoat.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
So I don't know.
Speaker 1 (28:06):
I think I think I may have changed my answer. Well,
you studies as I talk myself into many circles here.
Speaker 3 (28:13):
I don't even know what you're saying, but I it
kind of reminds me of like the better than average effect.
Like seventy percent of people I think somewhere around there
think that they have higher than average intelligence. So shoutut
to those thirty percent that just know that they're not smart.
Speaker 4 (28:33):
Amen.
Speaker 2 (28:34):
So uh, I don't know about fuck.
Speaker 3 (28:38):
So yeah, but I think I I think I agree
with your first take, Brandon, for.
Speaker 1 (28:46):
Us, before I started talking, you started sliding then the
slot into vapid nothingness.
Speaker 2 (28:53):
This is how I get to these places though, as
I just like talk myself into the depths of hell.
Speaker 1 (28:59):
That's the thing, you know, you gotta you have to
take into account both sides here. So you know, I
immediately dismissed the fired because you suck thing. But there's
there's at least merit to that. I think if you're
someone that lacks self awareness, that could be a beneficial
thing for you to then be able to grab hold
of what reality actually is. Is that a more succinct
(29:21):
version of what we're looking for here? I'll take it
all right, Winter Winter chicken dinner. Let's plant the flag
presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
Shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 1 (29:36):
Okay, you're really planting your flag in that thic. We
have two games to choose from, but thank you to
the sports books like Draft Kings that are out there
that give us an endless buffet of things to choose from.
I'll go ahead and get us started today because I'm
gonna choose from the derivative buffet. Patriots Broncos first half
under will be where I plant my flag. I have
(29:58):
not bet a side for these games yet, so I
had to look off the board a little bit. Under
twenty and a half is the number that I'm looking
at here. I just can't imagine that this is going
to be an aggressively played game by either coach, especially
early on. Vrabel has to know that he can park
the bus for four quarters, don't let the Broncos defense
(30:18):
create momentum with turnovers like we've seen in some of
these other games, and eventually just banking on the fact
that Stidham is going to fold. On that same line
of thinking, the Broncos are likely going to struggle to
score period because of their quarterback play. Even with bow Knicks,
they ranked sixteenth in the NFL in terms of first
half points per game. Eleven point four is what they
(30:39):
were averaging with a better quarterback, and the Patriots defense
has been lights out so far in the playoffs, averaging
under ten points per game in the postseason so far.
Denver's defense obviously elite first in sacks, second yards allowed,
and all of those things. So I think we're going
to see an insane effort from the Broncos defensively and
a really low scoring game out of the gate between
(31:02):
these two Patriots. Broncos under twenty and a half is
my plant the flag. Kendra.
Speaker 2 (31:08):
We kind of talked about it a little bit on Sunday,
and then Stucky has talked a little bit about it today,
but my thought process is definitely just that the Patriots
played a really tough defense for the first time last week.
Drake May has had some fumble problems this postseason. The
Broncos defense not that much of a drop off from
the Texans in my opinion, I think that if they
can disturb Drake May from the beginning, the Broncos have
(31:29):
a shot at covering this five and a half. I also,
like I said, love the experience piece of Sean Payton.
I think he's going to be prepared. I think Jarrett's
going to be prepared, and I almost kind of think
that I always prefer these situations where it's that cornered
cap mentality. The Broncos kind of know that they have
nothing in everything to play for at the same time,
which I think, I agree with what Stucky said on Sunday,
(31:50):
just takes so much pressure off of them and puts
it all back on New England. And historically, like I
mentioned Sunday, New England does not play well in Denver
in the postseason and it's a really tough place to play.
So I don't think that the five and a half
is going to get any better. I think if anything,
it's gonna get worse. So take a five and a
half on dropkings while you can get it. I did
it this morning. That's where I'm at.
Speaker 1 (32:11):
Stuck.
Speaker 3 (32:13):
Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Broncos too. I'm kind
of it looks like it's coming down. I might play
for five and a half. I was waiting to see
if we get six six and a half. I just
wasn't sure where the market was going to go with this.
But I you know, I mean, like we just saw
the Broncos close as what one and a half point
favorites over the Bills. The Bills are power and higher
than the Patriots in market. I think the Bills are
(32:35):
an overall better team and I can't I can't make
the adjustment from Nicks. I mean, you mentioned like their
offense like fourteenth in points per game in first Their
passing offense I think is like fourteenth or fifteenth. Dvoa
like Nix is like an average quarterback who has like
above average flashes, but he's not elite. He's not in
the elite tier. I can't make this drop off seven points.
(32:59):
That's crazy. And again, the Patriots going on the road.
Denver is not an easy place to play for an
inexperienced quarterback. I mean, especially in January. I mean that
the Broncos have only been home dogs in January five
times in the past twenty five years. They've covered all
five games, including twice in the playoffs. They beat the
Patriots and they won a seven to that point dogs
(33:19):
with Tim Tebow as the quarterback over the Steelers a
bit ago. Peyton elite as a dog sixty one forty
two and two fifty nine percent, sixty seven percent.
Speaker 4 (33:31):
Against the spreadman catching over a.
Speaker 3 (33:33):
Field goal, and I just think that a lot of
the intangibles are working in Denver's favor. You have, you're
at home, you have nothing to lose. All of the
pressure is on the Patriots now, and they don't have
film on your tendencies, and I think that that uncertainty
(33:53):
can work in their favor if they can just put
a couple of drives together and score in the red
zone against the defense that's one of the worst in
the league defending in the redsidt Before last week, they
were getting up touchdowns on ninety five percent of goal
to go drives ninety five percent. I don't think they
faced forced a field goal in the regular season in
a goal to go situation, so they finish off a
(34:16):
couple of the drives you're able to put together, surprise
him early, get the screen game going. Like this Patriots team.
I mean last week they looked awful and Stroud was
just that much worse. And they didn't even look great
against the Chargers. It just Herbert was so bad. And
the schedule you can't not talk about it. It's the
(34:38):
easiest schedule we've seen in twenty five years, and then
you could argue it's one of the easiest in playoff history.
So yeah, I and look, if you look at Stidham,
as I mentioned before, we only had two starts, it
could be a complete disaster. It could, but I actually
don't think he's that bad. I think he's like one
of the better backups in the league. There's a reason
why Peyton went and targeted him. But like he started
(35:02):
two games with the Broncos, two games with the Raiders,
those were horrendous offenses with horrendous offensive lines, and he
was able to put a really good performance against a
good forty nine Ers defense where he threw for nearly
four hundred yards, and like I said, he's playing behind
an elite offensive line, that he has an elite play call,
he's playing at home. And then you have this Patriots
team that their offensive line is a problem. I mean
(35:26):
Will Campbell is a problem. Yeah, you have Nick Benito
who can fully take advantage and the Patriots. Not only
have the Patriots had a really easy schedule, they've been
extremely lucky.
Speaker 4 (35:38):
I've mentioned this spot.
Speaker 3 (35:39):
During the regular season, they re covered seventy three percent
of their fumbles. They were covered twelve of their twenty
fumbles and of their own fumbles and ten of their
opponents fourteen fumbles. So they were extremely lucky in fumbles.
And guess what that percentage is held in the postseason.
They've been really lucky with fumbles. Go back to last
(36:00):
week and fumble comms. Fourth downs, they were seventy three
percent on fourth downs, their opponents thirty three percent. And
again this is against one of the easiest schedules in
the league. And then so far in the playoffs they're
sixty seven percent on fourth downs their opponents are forty.
So don't be shocked if you know there's a couple bounces,
(36:20):
a couple fourth downs that go Denver's way, but I
would argue that Denver has a massive advantage in the
trenches on both sides of the ball, and they're playing
at home, and I just can't get to this number.
So yeah, I'm going to plan my flag on the Broncos.
Plus five and a half could be a nice lead
(36:42):
in to Evans Primer because I believe this would be
maybe something in the seventies, but this would be the
largest home dog in Conference Championship history.
Speaker 1 (36:52):
Evan, Well, let's bring them on Evans Tuesday Primer starts
right now, and we'll start with that. Go check it
out Actionnetwork dot com or on the Action Network app.
The Conference Championship Primer. Biggest home dog in Conference Championship history.
Speaker 5 (37:10):
Yeah, by far too right now? Five and a half
point dogs, So since the merger, it'd be the largest
home dog, and then nineteen sixty eight we had a
larger one, but I believe seating back then was just
kind of randomized, so you had like a home team
that just wasn't as good in that spot. So really,
since we've had seating, this is kind of unprecedented.
Speaker 6 (37:32):
And then you have this stat So.
Speaker 5 (37:34):
The Bears closed at three and a half last week,
but there were some fours out there, and when the
line closes plus four higher home dogs four plus points
nine to zero against the spread last fifty years in
the playoffs, who and you count the Panthers who covered
against the Rams. So this line massive. I'm stuck. I
kind of like the Broncos in this spot. I just
feel like Peyton will be figuring things out coming with schemes,
(37:58):
and the Patriots don have a lot of film to
go off of, which is difficult.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
You know, it looks like we hit a resistance point
at six. I was shopping around to see what other
books or what they were offering. We hit six with
Denver for a moment that came back down across the
board to five and a half. Same thing for the
other game that we haven't talked as much about because
all of our plant the flags are on the AFC
Championship game, but the Rams got up to three and
(38:26):
now are two and a half in most places that
you look, including on draft kings. Now, part of that
could also be injury related, because Charles Cross is questionable.
Sam Darnold still on the injury report he was last week.
He's probably gonna play Zach Sharboney out for the year,
so all things that you should be aware of here.
(38:46):
Have you seen the same sort of market resistance Evan
as you've looked up and down these lines, and how
it pertains to what you've done.
Speaker 6 (38:55):
Yeah, open one and a half.
Speaker 5 (38:57):
It's just I don't see I don't see this game
being a three points spread, Like I just don't see
the necessity to be giving three full points to the
only duo who has experience in this situation. Like it
just kind of doesn't make sense, makes sense when especially
when you look at the matchups, Like the last game,
the Rams dominated that game, like ignoring the final result
(39:18):
and rewatching it. It was complete domination until you had
like a late game flip.
Speaker 3 (39:22):
So I mean, take a point conversion without that fluky
like pick up of rat pass, the Rams win, have
the one seaton.
Speaker 4 (39:30):
They're oasting this game.
Speaker 5 (39:31):
But to be fair as well, to be fair as well,
we've the Rams have been kind of I don't want
to say overvalue in the market, but like they are
zero to two against the spread in the playoffs, so
I mean that doesn't matter this week when you're underdogs,
but I mean being in that spot, they're the only
team in history to not cover wild card and divisional
and still be here in the conference championship and then
(39:53):
third straight road game two for the Rams, which is
always a difficult task. Regular season playoffs, the numbers are
really really tough when you have to do that. It's
thirty eight percent since two thousand and two regular season
or postseason, and then when you get to the.
Speaker 6 (40:08):
Playoffs, twelve and thirty, which is not great numbers.
Speaker 2 (40:13):
Are you worried about Sam Donald at all?
Speaker 4 (40:15):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (40:15):
I mean that's definitely like the Rams have a better
offensive line, better receivers, the better quarterback. The Seahawks clearly
had the better defense, but I think that like they
can get pressure too, And we've seen Donald make like
he should have his pick should have ended that it
took a punt return, His pick should have ended the
(40:37):
second game is an awful pick. He threw a million
picks in the first meeting. And the Rams can get
pressure and that's when Donald really melts down. And this
offense has not been great for a month and a half.
It just gets masked because they their defense scores, their
special teams score, and they go up so big on teams.
But this offense has kind of been figured out a bit.
(40:59):
I mean, even if you if you remove garbage time,
if you remove garbage time. Since week thirteen, they're twenty
seventh in epapri play fifteenth and success rate. And they've
played the Panthers and the forty nine ers twice over
the past three games, and the forty nine Ers had
like no defense, and yeah, the Rams dominated that game.
I won a three in that game. Basically, I don't
(41:19):
even if it's like minus one twenty. I'm fine with
that too. That's what I'm I'm waiting for, because you
go back.
Speaker 4 (41:25):
I bet the.
Speaker 3 (41:25):
Seahawks plus one in the first meeting. Well, in the
second meeting in week sixteen, it closed minus one, minus
one and a half dead wrong side, dead wrong side.
The Rams should have won that game. They dominated that
game five to eighty one to four fifteen yardage edge.
And that's even what the Seahawks playing from behind.
Speaker 4 (41:46):
And there's they.
Speaker 3 (41:49):
Had no atoms, no dots in, no lake on the
defensive end, and the Seahawks were fully healthy. So you're
gonna tell me now this should be three. Now I
get like that. It's worth noting the Seahawks have a
special team's edge, big special team's edge, and the situation
isn't great, right, it's your third straight road game after
(42:09):
overtime on right, And then the Seahawks had a buy
and then a laugher where they didn't have to exude
anything and they get to stay at home. So like situationally,
But we've only seen over the past twenty years two
teams after an overtime game on the road go on
the road again, and both those teams, I mean it's
sampatized too. Both those teams rolled the next week, so
(42:32):
they and they dominated the next week. Mcveigh's only had
three straight road games one time came back in twenty eighteen.
They won by thirty eight and in that season, the
Patriots beat the Rams in the Super Bowl, So maybe
that's a sign of things that come. But yeah, I
(42:53):
just want to three in that game. But to answer
your original question, and yeah, I think we certainly have
to be worried about Donald here against the pressure of
the rems, especially if the Seahawks left tackles out in
their backup is banged up too, so that could certainly
be a major issue in that game. So yeah, I
(43:14):
think it's natural to I think it makes sense it's
logical to worry about Donald. But to Evan's point, the
Rams haven't been playing since that meltdown against the Seahawks.
It's just every week something is off right, like the
defense gets shredded, or like last week Stafford didn't look right.
So there's just been something off with the Rams, and
(43:36):
like the Seahawks kind of keep the sending with that
defense just seemingly getting better each and every week. But
Donald could certainly melt down here with a couple of
turnovers that end up costing Seattle to game.
Speaker 1 (43:48):
We've seen last week, Evan had it where when Sam
Donald's favored by a touchdown or more, he's actually been
really good against the spread. What about in tight game
situations as far as the thinner spreads two and a
half three, is that when trend wise we should be
(44:09):
concerned about backing Sam Darnold.
Speaker 6 (44:12):
You look at those numbers right now as I'm reloading
my screen.
Speaker 5 (44:14):
But to look at Stuck's point as well, you look
at EPA per play since week ten, the Patriots are
first offensive ep per play, the Rams are second, the
Seahawks are nineteenth. So if you just look at how
that's rolled recently, like I just think either of these
teams can be off when there's usually consistency when a
(44:35):
team makes a conference championship, and you're just not getting
that this year. So I just find it really fascinating
that you've got both of these teams in this spot
because Seattle like really just hasn't needed to be that
type of team, Like it hasn't mattered for them, which
intriguing nonetheless.
Speaker 6 (44:53):
So Sam Darnold career against the spread when the spread
is four or less either direction, I mean, pretty decent.
Speaker 5 (45:01):
He is twenty seven and twenty five, but that just
takes a lot of teams. In fact, when he's with Seattle,
he's seven and three against the spread, So he's been
pretty decent in that spot. And even if you take
in Minnesota, it's thirteen eight and one, So covering numbers
either direction not not terrible.
Speaker 1 (45:17):
Yeah, good stuff. Gohe and check it out actionnetwork dot
com or on the Action Network app. It's Evans Conference
Championship primer to recap our plant the Flag picks presented
by DraftKings. Kendra has the Broncos plus five and a
half against New England. Stucky Broncos plus five and a
half against the Patriots and I am on the Patriots
(45:39):
Broncos first half under at twenty and a half points.
Those are our Plant the Flag games presented by Draft Kings.
The Crown is yours. That'll do it for today's episode
special thanks to our producers David Paine and Gifford Gold.
By the time we come back on Thursday, we'll have
a play on Seahawks Rams a lot more to dive
(46:00):
into as far as that game goes on which side
we eventually land on between the Seahawks and the Rams.
Go and check out the Action Network YouTube page where
we will of course be back on Thursday with our
official plays in the conference championship games. Nominate our two
Kings and a Queen parlay and all that good stuff
for Kendrim, Middleton and Stuckey. I'm Brandon Kravitz. We'll see
(46:21):
you next time you're on the favorites.
Speaker 2 (46:33):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Hosts And Creators
Chad Millman
Simon Hunter
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