December 30, 2025 • 47 mins
The Favorites is back for an early look at a rough NFL Week 18! Action Network hosts Brandon Kravitz, Kendra Middleton and Stuckey discuss all the games they don't want to watch this week and how to bet them. With so much still in the air, who ends up which seed in the playoffs and how will all that impact motivation in Week 18? Plus, the crew each plants their flag early on a game in NFL Week 18, we've got some great College Football Playoff matchups on the horizon and some nuggets from the weekly NFL Primer courtesy of Action Director of Research Evan Abrams, delivering everything needed to start digging into the betting week. Jump in and enjoy!
Check out the Action Network App and sign up for Action Pro for instant notifications from our top experts. Get $20 off with promo code POD20.
Click here to instantly tail some of the bets from today's episode with quick slips!
Catch the College Football Playoff for the best price - starting at $4.99 with Sling 1 Day Pass.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome to the Favorites presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast, and the regular season
in the NFL is wrap it up. I'm Brandon Kravitz
back at it on this fine Tuesday morning. The first
Lady of the pod, Kendri Middleton, is with us the
Prime Minister of DJA Nation Stuckey as well, who is
ready to run through the machinations that are involved in
(00:33):
Week eighteen in the NFL. We've got our Plant the
Flag game for Week eighteen. No more Thursday night football,
so no preview to get to there, but we've got
scenarios galore and of course the main event, Evan's Tuesday
Primer live as of right now on Actionnetwork dot com.
Here's what we know, as far as I understand it.
(00:55):
The Broncos clinch the AFC West. The Patriots have clinched
the AFCs. The Texans, Chargers, and Bills all share the
same record. They are locked into the playoffs, but not
necessarily into their specific seting. The Bears have clinched the
NFC North, The Eagles have clinched the NFC East. The
Seahawks and forty nine Ers fight it out for the
(01:16):
one seed on Saturday, and the Packers are locked in
to the seventh spot. Stucky, did I nail this? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (01:24):
I mean that's those are the certainties. I mean to
run through everything to give everyone like a high level.
I'll try to do it in like two minutes. So Denver,
where is yours?
Speaker 1 (01:35):
My friend?
Speaker 2 (01:36):
So Denver hosts the Chargers. If they win, they clinched
the one seed because they have the tiebreaker over the Patriots.
The Chargers in very uncharger like fashion because last week
can Beek eighteen with a chance to go from the
sixth seed to the five seed. They play their starters.
Looks like they're going to start Trey Lance rest starters,
which is why Denver is now a significant double digit favorite.
(01:57):
So if Denver wins that game, they clinched the one seat,
they will have a buy and home field advantage throughout.
So if New England, say, say the Broncos blow out
the Chargers, Pats rest their starters, and you know you
have the Dolphins come back to win. Well, if the
Jags were to win, the Jags would jump the Pats.
(02:18):
So maybe the Pats say we want to win this
game and lock up the two regardless that that's a
decision has to be made internally. But keep that in
mind because just because the Broncos win doesn't mean that
the Pets still can't lose a seed, but they will
either be the two or the three. If we assume
that the Broncos win and the Patriots win Broncos are one,
(02:40):
Patriots are two, then your three seed comes down to
Jacksonville or Houston, the winner of that division. Jacksonville wins,
they win the division. If Jacksonville loses that and the
Texans win, the Texans win the division. And then it
could get real weird where if you have the Jags. Now,
(03:04):
the Chargers have to win for this to happen, so
it's unlikely. But if the Jags lost and the Chargers
won and the Bills won, then the Bills, Chargers, and
Jags would all be tied. It comes down to strength
the victory, which the Bills can't win, the Jags and
the Chargers. It would come down to like every game
would matter on Sunday. It's very close, but that's very
unlikely to happen. So really what you're looking at the
AFC Broncos win one seed, Pats win two seed, they're
(03:28):
double digit favorites. Jags also a double digit favorite. Likely
the three seed winner of the AFC North between the
Steelers and Ravens on Sunday night is the four seed,
and then you know, most likely the Texans will end
up being the five seed. They will travel to the
winner of the AFC North between the Steelers and the Ravens,
(03:49):
and then you know you're gonna have the So if
the Chargers lose, they're resting everyone, and then the Bills win,
I assume they're gonna rest everyone as well. Then the
Chargers to the seventh seed and they would go to
presumably New England, Buffalo would go to Jacksonville. So that's
how I think it's probably gonna work out. Now in
(04:09):
the NFL that rarely happens, but I think the way
that it's going to look Denver by Chargers at Patriots,
Bills at Jags, Texans at Raven's that's how I think
it plays out NFC. While you have McVeigh came out,
Rams lose again last week. I mean, it's crazy what's
happening in ten day A ten day stretch for the
(04:30):
Rams who looked like they were headed to the.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
One C the question about the AFC before we move on.
Speaker 4 (04:36):
Sure, do you think because of last night and what
happened with Matt Stafford it changes any of the Patriots
plans for MVP for Drake May and incentives that they
have to hit for Hunter Henry and Stefan Diggs.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Yeah, I mean, I think regardless, they're they're gonna play
him and play their full offense in the first half,
and I think that they'll probably play most of the
game because like the two seas could end up being valuable.
They ad he's wide open, like Denver is your one, right,
so like Denver is very vulnerable to getting the two
compared to the three could mean that you're hosting the
(05:10):
AFC Championship game. So I think regardless, he's gonna play
most of the game. Like where where could like if
the Jags somehow are getting blown out and the you know,
the the Broncos are blowing out the Chargers, then maybe
we rest them late. But I do think that they
he'll get his numbers in the first half and there
(05:32):
are some incentives there that could matter. So I think
for the most part, you'll see the Patriots starters for
like a half, three quarters, most likely for the full game,
but there could be some scoreboard watching. But that is
a good point. But in the NFC you have the
Packers are locked in to the seven. The one seed
is going to go to the winner of the Seahawks
and forty nine Ers, which is on Saturday. If the
(05:55):
forty nine Ers win, they get home field throughout through
the Super Bowl, which we'll hear a lot of. And
if the forty nine Ers win, keep this in mind,
Seattle locked into the five. So Seattle's in a good spot.
They're either get the one seed or the five, and
then they go to the winner of the NFC North.
If that happens, the Rams are locked into the six.
Now McVeigh came out and said he's gonna rest his
(06:15):
I mean he's gonna play his starters, which is very
unlike McVeigh, which makes sense if the Seahawks win on Saturday.
Because if the Seahawks win on Saturday, they can jump
up to the five. That's a big difference. That's a
difference between going most likely to Philly or to the
NFC the NFC South winner. So I think that's what's
gonna make that decision with the Rams is the result
(06:36):
of the Seahawks forty nine Ers game. But if the
forty nine Ers win, Rams are locked into the six.
If the Seahawks win, Seahawks have the one. Rams can
jump up to the five with a win, and then
the forty nine Ers would drop to the six. If
the Rams get upset by the Cardinals, then you know
they would be the six. The forty nine Ers would
be the five. The two to three is either going
(06:57):
to be the Bears or the Eagles. Same record, but
Bears have the head to head. So Bears win at
home against the Lions. Some bad blood there. I'm sure
the Lions are gonna try. They have a lot of injuries.
I don't know who they're gonna end up sitting out,
but they're gonna try Stan Campbell. But if the Bears
win that game, they clinch the number two seed. If
the Bears slip up to the Lions and the Eagles
(07:18):
beat the Commanders with what looks like it's gonna be
Josh Johnson again, then the Eagles would jump up to
the number two seed. I thought that the Eagles would
play their starters. I think that that's I do think
the two seed matters for both teams. Both the Bears
and the Eagles. Like the Bear is one of the
best running teams in the NFL, you get home games
and in the NFC's wide open, like it could end
up in Seattle, like Darnold is the one seed, like
(07:38):
that could Bean hosting the NFC championship game. So I
think the Bears are gonna try, but it sounds like
the Eagles might rest starters. So we'll see May and
maybe they're watching the Bears game. There's a lot of play,
but as of right now, it looks like the Bear
the Eagles might rest some key starters, and then the
four seed is going to either be Carolina or Tampa.
What made this now, Well, Sunday's like there's three primary games.
(08:02):
We talked about this on the Sunday Night episode. Three
primary isolated island time slots that are like really impactful.
It's the forty nine Ers, Seahawks, the Panthers, Bucks, and
then Sunday Night Football between the Ravens and the Steelers.
The rest of the Sunday slate is pretty ass. However,
if the Bucks win, it got a lot more interesting
(08:25):
because of last night because the Pan. If the Bucks win,
the Panthers get in if the Falcons beat the Saints,
so all of a sudden, this Falcon Saints game becomes
a playing game, even though neither team is making the playoffs,
which makes that super interesting. Rest of the Sunday slate
pretty boring as far as the afternoon slates go. But
the most likely scenario, Seattle is your one. So what
(08:49):
I think is gonna happen. I really Seattle stand Frans
a coin flip. But if Seattle wins, then so like,
let's let's take the scenario where Seattle wins. Seattle wins,
I think the Rams play their starters and then they
beat the Cardinals, which would mean that the Rams jump
(09:10):
up to the five, would go to Carolina or Tampa.
The forty nine ers would go to Philly if the
Bears win, and then the Packers would go to the Bears.
Banger games, Seattle gets to buy, but if the forty
nine ers. When forty nine ers get to buy, Seattle
goes to the NFC South winner, the Rams go to Philly,
and then the Packers go to the Bears. Now the
(09:32):
Bears lose, it would beat Packers going to the Eagles
and Rams going to the Bears. Banger Games in the
NFC A lot to sort through. Hope all that made sense,
but that's kind of the everything that you need to know.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
Well done, well done. That was a very NBA two minutes.
I believe Kendrick.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
When I say two minutes, I mean ten.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
I think it was week with my interruption, it was
about six and a half.
Speaker 3 (09:59):
No, he might be better at our jobs than we are.
Speaker 4 (10:06):
I have to kill air on the radio before a
break so often, Stuck, you should get into radio.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
I mean that's kind of podcasting with the radio stuff.
Speaker 1 (10:19):
But yeah, four hours feeling. It's hard to do a
show by yourself. I think Stucky would be able to
do that with general ease. That would not be a concern.
Speaker 4 (10:28):
Now in the summer and there's no sports on Tough,
but Stuck could do it.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
I would bet a lot of money. That would be
very juice on the money line. Now there's another side
to this. Those are all the things that matter, Kendra.
You have said, as salty as you were about it
on Sunday, I'm not into it. I'm not trying to
bet this ship. I'm good you hate it.
Speaker 3 (10:57):
It's not fun.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
So what I want what I'm gonna allow you to
do here is I'm gonna allow you to eliminate three
games from discussion today. Can't plant the flag on them, nothing,
Just get them out of the podcast, get them out
of your mind, and move the hell on. What three
games would you like to nominate?
Speaker 2 (11:19):
Of course, before before she answers that I this will
make it a little more fun, I do want to
say that. I for every week eighteen and actually for
every week I do do this. I had somehow there's
three games that I for my notes for all of
them before I broke them down, I just wrote no thanks,
(11:39):
like I'm not touching them. So I'm gonna see if.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
The okay we match.
Speaker 4 (11:43):
I have never been so drunk with power, and you
will never see me so drunk with power ever again,
unless for some reason I get my hands on a
T shirt cannon. But I'm gonna go Chiefs, Raiders, don't care, Cowboys, Giants,
get it the fuck out of here for two.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
And I know that we have loved.
Speaker 4 (12:02):
The Saints and loved the Falcons this year, but their
Super Bowl is over. This is probably what should be.
I agree with what Stucky said on Twitter. The NFC
South play like playing game, but it's over.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
It's done. Who cares. I've seen enough of Tyler.
Speaker 4 (12:16):
Shuck whatever, it's over, goodbye, And I'm mad at Bijon
Robinson for obvious reasons.
Speaker 1 (12:21):
Oh, Bijon, we should have taken the rushing number. The
receiving prop killed us. We had a Monday night football
parlay that was so close.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
We're close. We're two for two on that the I
mean the Falcon Saints game. That could be fascinating if.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
The vib into it. That's so cool.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
You're gonna get You're gonna like, yes, they're playing for
other teams, which like ads even though like they don't care.
I'm sure they don't care, like which one of those
teams gets in like having that, uh, just knowing that
going into a week eighteen game after you've been eliminated,
I think it's pretty cool, Like that's gonna give it
both teams, like just I think some extra juice and
(13:00):
some intrigue if if they end up in a tie,
by the way, the Bucks would still go like, imagine
that game goes to overtime, so.
Speaker 4 (13:09):
That game could what if they could they tie on purpose?
That would be so funny.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
Well, they they also the Panthers have an incentive to tie.
So if the Panthers tie, they're also get in. So
it's like they get to overtime and they have the
ball and like they just run out the clock. They
get in with the tie. If the Bucks win and
then the Saints and Falcons tie, then the Bucks get in.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
Maybe maybe these teams like hate secretly hate the Panthers
and want to collude. I don't know. I'll never forget
that Week eight team game between the Raiders and Chargers
when Brandon Staley called a time out to get uh
and they didn't tie when they were both incentivized to tie.
That was ridiculous. So what do we have an announcement
(13:55):
here for this one?
Speaker 4 (14:00):
Boston twenty five News breaking news. Patriot star Stefan Diggs
facing strangulation and assault charges as of eleven fifteen AM.
I can send this in our chat if we would
like to look at it. I don't know what this
means for their playoff anything, obviously, but this is breaking
news from Boston twenty five News.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
Seven minutes to go.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
Wow, no Digs and the Pats might have to face
the starting quarterback.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
So I but Kendra, so I agree with you. Ola,
ducon a six point favorite on the road against a
team actively trying to lose. Who knows who else they're
gonna sit this week, get that game, Like I'm gonna
have red zone on on Sunday. There should I think
this will happen in the future, where like what we're
(14:50):
talking about, you get to select, like which games you
don't don't want to have come along the red zone,
like customizable resid I know I do that when we're
at the bar. You can customize your three screens, and
I'll do that on some of my screens, but like
give me a red zone, but skip certain games like
you like there's different posts, customizable packages that game. No,
(15:14):
I think the Chiefs probably want to lose two because
of draft positioning. It's something They're playing the Broncos with
some juice at home on Christmas Night. They cared last week.
They could be as careless as they were for the
Titans game. So that game, that's one of the worst
games of the year. Chief sever Raiders.
Speaker 4 (15:29):
I saw a like discourse on Twitter this week about
what if the playoffs were structured where like the highest
seed gets to choose who they play, so like the
one seed would pick first, and then the two seed
would pick from who was left, would you guy? I
mean like it would make the regular season a lot
less valuable.
Speaker 3 (15:47):
But I don't hate that, would you guys? Hate that?
Speaker 1 (15:50):
They've talked about that in the NBA as well. I
think it's the issue becomes the optic is that you
have teams that are that are selecting what they feel
to be bottom featers, and that just looks bad for
the league. But I think it would be fun. I
mean that sounds like something you would do in fantasy football. Yeah,
(16:11):
so that could be I mean, I think it's less
offensive in the in the NFL because everybody's kind of dangerous.
In the NFL and the NBA, you're like, yeah, I
want them because we're going to sweep that team.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
I do think that they might be heading down a
path where you have to change the way that the
number one pick is awarded. I don't know how you
would do it, because the way that the league works,
you do want the really really bad teams to be
able to get a quarterback. But this trend now, and
this is like across sports, which we're starting to see
(16:44):
of like what the Raiders did last week with two
weeks to go like benching your best player who wanted
to play. That's it. I mean, there's only seventeen games,
and it's that's a dangerous path and I don't like that.
I don't know how you solve it. But the haven't
said he liked big he likes big cats. I do
you need a minimum amount of wins to be eligible?
Speaker 4 (17:06):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (17:07):
So yeah, the way the Saints Falcons does have some
ramifications as far as the uh not for them, but
as far as the season total goes. The the over
under for the Saints one season, early in the off season,
I think this was right before Derek Carr officially retired.
Speaker 2 (17:25):
It was six and a half and Falcons in total too, so.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
They I and I that was one of three total
bets that I made before the season was Saints under
six and a half wins. I need them to lose
to the Atlanta Falcons. I thought for sure a month
ago this was as safe as safe could be. And
they've gone on a little heater here and then, and
then you have the Falcons trying to play spoiler. I'm
I'm kind of into that game and part of it
(17:51):
is financially driven.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
But Falcons win total offensive Rookie of the year. Bijon
is going toe it? What are the Bejon props going
to be this week? After last week and they're they're
gonna pepper him? Okay, what's going for the scrimmage record?
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Okay? So I know that Zucky has this one coming
up later in the show. Brown's Bengals. Why is that interesting?
Speaker 4 (18:17):
Are you joking because Joe Burrow and the boys are hooping?
Speaker 2 (18:22):
Why is that interesting?
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Uh?
Speaker 2 (18:24):
Someone's going from Garrett? Yeah, Miles Garrett.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
That's fair.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
Yeah, what game would you have picked?
Speaker 4 (18:30):
Like?
Speaker 2 (18:30):
My other third game though is Packers Vikings. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (18:33):
I thought about that, but I probably care less about
the Saints and the Viking.
Speaker 3 (18:38):
About the Saints and the Falcons.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
Packers Vikings, like the Packers are rest are going to
rest everyone. Maybe Malik will starts, I don't know. I
don't know. But they're resting every key fire because they're
locked in last year you had love get Bang w
Watson tears a c L. They've had so many injuries,
they're resting everyone. Maybe McCarthy plays for the Vikings, but
(19:00):
there's a chance this is Max Bros.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
I think he does. I was gonna say it's got
to be broad.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
Yeah, this is ugly. This could be Brosmer versus Tune.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
Brosner six point favorite against Tune. This is that. That's
Chiefs Raiders. Get that half of my life, Kendrick.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
Can we punt that one? Can we get that one
out of here? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (19:16):
Sure, I don't care. We can.
Speaker 4 (19:17):
We can squash all four of them if you really
feel like it, because I don't give a shit.
Speaker 1 (19:22):
Okay, all right, sounds good. We are about to dive
deep into our plant the Flag games, but first a
word from our very own Kendra Middleton.
Speaker 4 (19:29):
The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sports book,
where new customers can bet five dollars and get two
hundred dollars back in bonus.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
Bets if your bet wins.
Speaker 4 (19:38):
Stay in on the action and use your bonus bets
on DraftKings same game parlays for a shot at even
bigger payout. To get started to use promo code Favorites
when signing up with DraftKings Again, use code Favorites when
signing up and bet five bucks to get two hundred
back in bonus bets. If your bet wins, the crown
is yours, all right, Kendrick.
Speaker 1 (19:58):
Before we get to the plays that will kick off
our week, what is on your mind?
Speaker 2 (20:04):
What could you have been acting?
Speaker 4 (20:15):
Before Philip Rivers was even brought up. We could all
agree that bringing back somebody that old sounded insane, and
now because of the games that we've had on Christmas
and the number of backup quarterbacks, third string quarterbacks we've seen,
looking back on this, it truly was the right decision.
And I think that this is probably going to wind
(20:37):
up changing quarterbacking as we know it. I think we're
probably going to see older guys stick around for longer.
This singular move honestly might have saved Kirk Cousins from
retirement or having the Falcons scratch this guaranteed money that
they were going to owe him if he stayed. I
think that they're probably happily going to give that.
Speaker 3 (20:54):
To him now.
Speaker 4 (20:55):
One because of obviously Michael Pennicks tearing his same acl
for like the third time. But two, the value that
Philip Rivers has shown in a veteran over some of
these young guys with the lack of experience has been.
Speaker 3 (21:07):
Beyond eye opening.
Speaker 4 (21:08):
I mean, this guy was an incredible quarterback ten years ago,
Sat on the couch for five years, came back and
competed and honestly better than a lot of the third
string young guys we saw. So I think that this
is probably going to seriously change quarterbacking in the future.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
I don't know how you guys feel, but I.
Speaker 4 (21:26):
Thought that this was a good topic to discuss because
I think things could seriously look really different moving forward.
Speaker 1 (21:31):
I think what it does is it restores some values
of the position that have been lost lately. We are
so obsessed and I've certainly fallen victim to this of saying,
if this quarterback can't move, then they just can't work
in today's NFL. I think what Philip Rivers taught me
because I thought this was going to be a disaster, leadership, ball, placement,
(21:55):
understanding what the defense is throwing at you, all these
things that when I was growing up, that was all
that mattered at the quarterback position. And it seems like
lately athleticism has become such a big component into how
we evaluate quarterbacks. And Philip Rivers couldn't fucking move and
the guy was still effective at the position. All of
(22:15):
those things still.
Speaker 4 (22:17):
Good teams good teams too, Like good teams in.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
High pressure situations. I think we have lost sight of
how important the basics are at the quarterback position, leadership,
ball placement most specifically, And Philip Rivers showed that that's
the thing that I took away from it stuck.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
Yeah, I mean, I think you need to be able
to move some to be an elite quarterback in the
NFL these days, because there's an offensive line problem in
the NFL. The edge rushers are getting better, although like
there's still some guys that are just like Burrow, He's
not gonna run and he's gonna sit in the pocket.
But I think that then after like your elite guys
(22:56):
who can move for the for the most part, if
you just list like the top ten quarterbacks, they're all
going to have mobility like your elite eyes. But then
there's there's a quarterback shortage in the NFL, and then
like there are so many bad quarterbacks that the value
of just having a guy who can who is accurate,
can command the offense, I think was is has been lost,
(23:21):
as Brandon said, And there's there's always going to be
a a place for older quarterbacks because the Steelers exist.
So what do they do next year? They're like the
falling down like them. The quarterback story for next year
is you obviously have like the Raiders are going to
draft a quarterback, right the Giants that they stick with Dart.
Speaker 3 (23:46):
For sure, So like you have does Kyler move?
Speaker 2 (23:51):
Yeah, so too, I think is moving and then Kyler's
probably gone. Does Kyler like go to Miami? I don't
know what does Dan would with Daniel Jones because he
only signed a one year deal, so he's gone, or
like that the Colts end up resigning to the other colts,
the Steelers. What happens with Rogers? Like those are your
QB moving pieces? And like there's also a world where
(24:13):
like the Raiders draft someone but need an older guy
right as.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
A bridge the same to have some questions.
Speaker 4 (24:21):
I think Tyler Shuck's their guy, but they doubted they did,
They doubted him for quite some time.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
Yeah, so's there's opportunities. I'm good should have to highlight
the quarterback shorts. It's like there was an article yesterday
I said, like here are the three teams that could
give Daniel Jones one hundred and fifty million, like like
that these guy towards ACL he's not been great his
whole career. I get it good if you flashed this
year a little bit, but like that's Daniel Jones is
like a hot commodity. So yeah, I think it's a
(24:48):
good point and worthy of discussion. But I liked I
think the most impressive thing about Rivers is his level
of care, Like he was like the most. He cared
more than any other cold on the field. Screaming on
the sidelines, Oh my.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
God, I love it.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
And then that's one of the things you.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Know, and how many guys come into the league, even
if their veterans of five or six years, are willing
to scream at their offensive linemen if they if they
false start. There's I think it's a cultural thing. We're
afraid of confrontation now more than ever, and Philip Rivers
is going in on his offensive line if they screw up.
(25:30):
That's leadership, being able to and not doing it just
because you want to be a dick, but doing it
because you're trying to be better on every single play.
It was old school leadership. It was really cool to
see and I thought it was going to be a
train wreck and it wasn't.
Speaker 3 (25:45):
Was it really give more value?
Speaker 1 (25:47):
Like I think it gives him less in some regard
because I don't think he's a good leader. I think
it shows just how important that I.
Speaker 4 (25:54):
Don't know, because like if you've seen you're a Dolphins fan,
you should have seen all this all week, all the
clips of him on the bench with Quinn helping him out,
helping him.
Speaker 3 (26:01):
Like read the iPad.
Speaker 4 (26:03):
He has not gone like full scorged earth, like he's
being a mentor to Quinn you wears, And I think
that that shows something from him.
Speaker 2 (26:11):
Back up there's but listen up, we got sixty minutes,
sixty minutes tonight, four hours of pain. I still laugh
at his pregame type speech.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
In the tunnel another day closer to doth So uh.
Speaker 2 (26:24):
Yeah, it'll be well, we'll have a lot of time
to discuss. So sure, quarterback Carasel on the off season.
Speaker 1 (26:29):
We're going to talk about the college ranks before we
get to our plant the flag games. Let's sling it
over to the CFP. It's that mysterious time after Christmas Day,
right before New Year's Day that our couch becomes the
thing that we have a very intimate relationship with. That's
where we watch Quinn you ers sling the ball around
the yard and because that's where you watch your Sling TV.
(26:52):
The best way to not miss a single moment of
the college football playoffs is with Sling TV. So we're
going to tell the folks all about Sling TV and
how they can cover you this holiday season. With Sling TV,
you take full control with the flexible package option of one, three,
and seven day passes for access to thirty plus live channels,
(27:12):
which includes ESPN and TNT, so that you're covered for
the Orange Bowl, the Rose Bowl, the Cotton Bowl, and more. So,
tell that family friend or family member about Sling TV.
Let's put together an all day parlay for New Year's
Day college football playoff quarterfinal games on Thursday. Stucky, Let's
(27:33):
start with you. You're the college football guru here on
the pod. Who are we betting on New Year's Day?
Speaker 2 (27:40):
Let's just start off. We'll put an anchor in their
Indiana on the money line to get it done. I
think much better team. I think this line is a
little short. Albama can't run the ball, they can't get pressure.
Indiana elite staff extra time to prepare here. But the
one dimensional Alabama attack. They've been so fortunate for about
two months fortunate against Oklahoma, probably should have lost to Auburn,
(28:03):
probably should have lost to South Carolina. I just don't
think this Alabama team is elite. I think this Indiana
team is clearly one of the two best teams in
the country, maybe three. If you want to throw a
Notre Dame in, there is not in. But yeah, I
think Indiana is too well balanced. Like, if you look
at these teams, one of these teams can run the ball,
(28:24):
one of these teams can get after the quarterback, and
that one is Indiana in both aspects. I think that's
the difference. So give me the Hoosiers to advance.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
I dig it. I'm into Indiana, Kendra, what about you?
Speaker 4 (28:38):
I'm going with the Oregon money line. I think the
Ducks are going to be one of the most slept
on teams throughout this entire postseason. I think that they
could win a national championship this year if some things
go right for them. For me, it's just one I
don't love a lot of times teams that spend a
ton of time on their couch in between games or
(29:00):
is obviously coming off of a feel good, pretty easy
win for them. I think it was an easy spot
for them to get up can give them some momentum
moving forward. But the other thing for me is that
there's some continuity on their roster. And Oregon's been one
of these teams since the dawn of time who has
invested a lot of money into their program, whereas Texas
Tech hasn't. This is they're new to putting a ton
(29:21):
of nil all of this money into this program. It's
really the first year that it's paid dividends for them,
whereas with Oregon it's been that way for a long time,
which is where they get that continuity. So I like
Oregon in this spot, don't love that they've been on
their couch for quite some time.
Speaker 3 (29:35):
I think Oregon probably rolls here.
Speaker 1 (29:37):
Okay, well, then I'm gonna have to change my pick
because I think putting Texas Tech plus two and a
half in there would be kind of silly.
Speaker 3 (29:43):
At this point, I like this one better than anyway.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
Well, I'm gonna go with the I'm gonna have a role.
I'm I'm gonna throw Georgia in there at minus six
and a half against Ole Miss I think this is
where not having Lane Kiffen wasn't going to impact them
against two not having your head coach will impact you
against Kirby Smart with extra time to prepare. I think
(30:08):
people are gonna come in on Old miss after watching
them route the green wave, and uh, I think it's
a mistake. So I will throw Georgia minus six and
a half in there. We're gonna add Indiana's money line
and Oregon's money line as well into our college football
all day parlay. Sling TV also coming in in the
(30:30):
clutch for both NFL games on Saturday this week and
some NFL playoff games that are coming up. So now
is the time to acquaint yourself with Sling TVs one,
three and seven day passes. Time to plant our flag
presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
It shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 1 (30:52):
Okay, you're really planning your flag in that thing. Kendro,
We're back to you. What are we looking at?
Speaker 4 (30:58):
You?
Speaker 3 (30:58):
Guys? Stole both my picks.
Speaker 4 (31:00):
I logged on here and Stucky is just his brain
is just so full of anything that he doesn't often
fill out notes. He just comes prepared and knows all
of the numbers in immediate real time.
Speaker 3 (31:10):
And for the first time ever, I logged on.
Speaker 4 (31:12):
To fill on our notes, and Stucky had filled them out,
so I couldn't beat him to the pick that I wanted,
and then you had the Panthers. That number's gone now,
which makes me feel a little bit vindicated. You guys
stole both of my picks, so I think I might
go depending on starters for the Colts, I might lean Colts.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
I gotta be honest with you, guys.
Speaker 4 (31:31):
I know that that's yucky, but it is a divisional
game and it just feels large.
Speaker 3 (31:38):
I think it's ten and a half.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
Now, you can take whatever game you want. Mind you're pi.
My cat's trying to break in.
Speaker 1 (31:44):
Right about Don Cappy? About Don Cappy And so now
you've heard the tale I tell that's Ai l I'm
talking about the tail of that.
Speaker 3 (32:01):
Dog cat show us the cat.
Speaker 4 (32:04):
I think I think I'm gonna go with the Colts,
depending on who's gonna play and who's not. But that's
probably gonna be where I'm getting just because it's in
division and it might be.
Speaker 3 (32:11):
A little bit of an emotional bet. But here we are.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
Well okay, but we might also get Riley Leonard. Does
that make that's why less? Does that make you like
this any less that it might be they might go
Riley Leonard.
Speaker 3 (32:23):
Here it is going to be. I think it is
going to be Riley Leonard.
Speaker 4 (32:26):
But no, it's still a divisional game, and the Colts
did play the drugs pretty tough for a.
Speaker 3 (32:30):
Hot yay is the cat that's such a cute cat stuck.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
He's got a little heart heart white spot right there.
He's basically parlay.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
Who's that?
Speaker 2 (32:43):
This is Hank.
Speaker 3 (32:45):
I'm gonna cry.
Speaker 2 (32:47):
But he's like a dog like he our nieces and
nephews just like carrying around. They just like they'll like
grab him like this and just walk around them. He
just lets anyone do whatever they want.
Speaker 1 (32:58):
That's awesome. My cats love it.
Speaker 4 (33:01):
Anyways, This might be half emotional, half brain, but I
think the Colts are going to try and show up
and play. Whether it's I do think it's gonna be
Riley Leonard, but I still think they're gonna show up
to play.
Speaker 1 (33:11):
I think Hank would be on the sad Cats. The
Panthers plus the points.
Speaker 3 (33:17):
Then do what you coward.
Speaker 1 (33:20):
No, I'm not I'm not gonna do that. I planted
I as I lost a point, we crossed three. I
already bet this and plus three. So this opened at
three and a half. I got it at three. Couple
of hours later that thing got gobbled up like a
like a Thanksgiving turkey. And then now we're down to
two and a half. I I can't advise the Panthers anymore.
(33:42):
If anything, I would tease them with somebody else that
you like. Maybe I love a good teaser. How about
Panthers up to eight and a half and the San
Francisco forty nine ers up to seven and a half.
There you go, have yourself a fun day on Saturday.
I will plant my flag though, on San Francisco plus
one one and a half against Seattle. Not only for
the division. This one's for the one seed, and I
(34:04):
feel like the forty nine ers, for the first time
in their existence, are the team that nobody's talking about.
Brock Party is as hot as any in the NFL,
thirteen touchdowns in his last three games. We do have
to monitor the Trent Williams injury. He injured his hamstring
on Sunday Night Football. I think George Kittle is going
to play and be back in this one. Mind you,
(34:24):
they ran up the score or they've got into the
forties against the Bears without their best receiver in George Kittle.
San Francisco is initially listed as a favorite in this one.
Money came in on Seattle. We've seen some resistance at
plus one and a half, so I think the number
is likely going to settle where it's at. Happy to
be on the home dog here give me the forty
(34:45):
nine ers plus one and a half and a headshake
from Tendra.
Speaker 2 (34:49):
Seattle kind of got screwed like they they were on
the East Coast and because of the NFL, like the
NFL did just so they're just TV and just greed.
Like all these games that are correlated we be at
the same time on Sundays. You should just have like
a one o'clock correlated games, four o'clock core later games
mixing your games that are mean nothing. But they gotta
(35:09):
have Saturday games. So Seattle has to come across the
country on the secondary road game in a short week
for the division in the one seed. But I think
Kittle on Williams are a huge year. Yeah, they can
get away with it against the Bears defense. The Bears
defense is atrocious, but against the Seattle defense, but yeah,
the Seattle offense is trending way down. I mean, even
against the Panthers defense, I can't get pressure.
Speaker 3 (35:32):
Donald Donald has incentives this weekend too.
Speaker 2 (35:35):
Donald looked really bad. But since kender wouldn't, I don't
even know what Kendrick's planned their flag on. Maybe the Colts, so.
Speaker 3 (35:43):
Riley Leonard or not? I hate this week? You got it.
Speaker 2 (35:46):
It's gonna be Riley Leonard, Riley Leonard starting.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
Why isn't Philip Rivers going to play one more game?
Speaker 2 (35:53):
I guess they just want to see you might as
well see what you got since the game means nothing to.
Speaker 1 (35:57):
It's a it's a learn learn about your guys, learn
about your personnel kind of game. For the Colts, well, season.
Speaker 3 (36:04):
Was pretty much over. You couldn't let them. You could
have let that happen a month ago.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
The last week they said that because there was a
chance that the Colts still could have made the playoffs
before some of the other results. And they said that
they're gonna start Rivers because he's gonna practice with the
ones all week. But Leonard's gonna practice the ones and start.
I think that's less fun. I would rather it s
all Rivers, But I get it. I'll play my Flags
on two games. We talked about the Panthers Bucks on
(36:29):
Sunday and Brandon would saying, I think you should take
the three and a half. I said, yeah, I mean
three is probably right at two and a half, I'm
taking Tampa. I've been head of the Tampa stinks. I've
been driving that bus all year. Just because Baker had
a couple of miracle last minute wins early in the season,
people thought this team was good. They're not. But the
Panthers aren't good either. This line now two and a half.
(36:51):
Two weeks ago, they were three point favorites in Carolina.
Two weeks ago, we're at the end of the year
and it's not like and the game was a coin flip.
The Bucks had a coverage bus where Dean went played
the wrong coverage at the end of the first half, which
led to a touchdown. The game is a complete coin
flip game. Now two weeks later, the Bucks are under
a Fueld goal at home. I have to take that
(37:13):
at two and a half. I wouldn't I have.
Speaker 3 (37:16):
To sign what's that said? I think Hank was our sign.
Speaker 2 (37:21):
Maybe, but I know I have to take the Bucks.
I mean, I'm worst. I think might be back. There
are some other offensive line injuries. There's some defensive injuries
Dean and Reddit worth monitoring. But like the Panthers, don't
get pressure. Bryce Young on the road it's atrocious. I
mean last week he threw it for fifty hours on
twenty four attempts. I have to take the I have
to take the Bucks minus two and a half here.
Plus it's the NFC South. You know it's going to
(37:42):
come down to Saints Falcons on Sunday. NFL scriptwriters will
ensure that happens. But my my favorite bet is the
Bengals against the Browns. I think the Bengals blow the
doors off the Browns. Browns are simple team people. They're
the least profitable road team over the past three years,
the most profitable home team. Their defense doesn't play the
(38:04):
same on their road. It's like Garrett once he gets
his sack. Okay, good night. But that this Bengals offense
is rolling. Their offensive line is playing better. Mims, Fairchild,
are playing better. You got all your healthy pieces. Burrow's
gonna play. The offense is rolling right now, so they're
gonna put up their points at home.
Speaker 3 (38:22):
Free my boy, Free Joe Burrow from.
Speaker 2 (38:24):
All can the Browns match? No, I don't think Fannon's
gonna play. Fannin's their whole offense. Luckily he played enough.
He played a quarter last week and caught a fifty
our touchdown pass. Because after that the Browns did nothing. Nadjok,
Who's hurt? Fannin's hurt? How are they going to keep
up here? Additionally, I think the Bengals are a little
undervalued right now because their defense is playing much much
(38:48):
better the past six weeks. Number one in EPA per play.
You might say, ah, who have they played ball? Blah?
They played the Ravens twice, the Pats, the Bills, the
Dolphins and someone else. Is probably bad. But that's not
like a stretch of just the worst offenses in the NFL.
So you might ask why why is it? Well, there's
a number of reasons. Over the first ten weeks they
(39:10):
were historically bad. I'm not saying they're a good defense
right now, but they're just like maybe the twenty fifth
best defense, which is all you need with the like.
They just can't be historically bad when you have this
Bengals offense and you're going up against a horrendous Browns D.
But why is the Bengals d trending up? Why? I
think it's real, Well, they have two rookie linebackers who
were the worst in the NFL over the first ten
(39:30):
weeks in Carter Knight. They're playing legitimately better, so not great,
but they were unplayable over the first ten weeks. Now
they're playing better. They also moved Dax Hill out to
the outside. DJ Turner on the other side, has been
one of the best corners in the NFL. Hill's played
amazingly locked down since he's moved to the outside. Because
(39:51):
they had Jeeff what is his name, their new slot
corner who's been on the who's on the practice squad,
He's been with the organization for like five years. He's
come in, played the nickel and played it pretty well.
It's enabled Hill went out after the first ten weeks,
went outside Jalen Davis. So now their corners are playing
(40:12):
really well. Rookie linebackers are playing better. They change some
of their fronts. Slayton's playing better with these new formations
against the run. They're getting something from Miles Murphy finally,
and then you just have Al Golden, who came in
as a new coordinator with a bunch of new pieces
and started to figure some things out schematically. So like,
I do think that the Bengals defense is legitimately improved,
(40:33):
which they've shown over the past six weeks, and you're
playing one of the worst offenses in the NFL, A
defense that doesn't play the same on the road. Could
see this being a little bit of an emotional letdown
for the Grounds, right, they had that huge win over
the Steelers. I don't think they can keep up here.
I think the Bengals role So gimme Sincy in the jungle.
Speaker 1 (40:51):
Tend to agree with that one. So yeah, two from Stuckey.
He's on the Bucks minus two and a half and
the Bengals minus seven against the Cleveland Browns, and we
got Kendra with a shoulder shrug emoji on the Colts
plus ten and a half.
Speaker 3 (41:07):
I second the Bengals. That was gonna be my pick.
Speaker 1 (41:11):
Okay, all right, so.
Speaker 2 (41:12):
Well let you pick now. Are you playing your flag
on the Bengals? All playing on the Bucks minus two
and a half?
Speaker 3 (41:17):
Oh there you go, Okay, I was I was Bengals Panthers.
I was gonna go with the Cats. So Hank is
my sign Meal.
Speaker 1 (41:24):
Okay, so then we're gonna switch this. I'm throwing this,
just see what it looks like. Throw it in a parlay.
We get the Bengals minus seven and a half forty
nine Ers plus one and a half, and the Bucks
minus two and a half at plus five seventy nine
over on Draft Kings. That's not the official two Kings
and a Queen parlay, but just in case you were
curious over on Draft Kings, though.
Speaker 2 (41:44):
The chaptains is gonna matter. The NFL will make sure.
I thought the people think all these games were fixed,
they're not. But the people that do think the games
are fixed, then, like the confused theorists and like the scriptwriters,
the NFL made out last week because everything that needed
to happen for drama did. Like the Ravens beat the.
Speaker 3 (42:01):
Packers, except now no DK in that game.
Speaker 2 (42:04):
Yeah, no DK is huge. But the Browns beat.
Speaker 1 (42:08):
The Steelers off the script.
Speaker 2 (42:11):
Yeah he went off script brown. So Browns beat the Steelers.
Ravens beat the Packers, keeps the AFC North Race down.
At the Sunday night football game. You even had the
Falcons beat the Rams, where now that could that game
could matter? You had the Bucks and the Panthers both lose,
so now that game matters. What else, Oh, you have
(42:33):
the Seahawks win, the forty nine Ers win, so that
game is for the division and for the one seed.
So like everything that possibly that they needed to happen
because there was a path where Week eighteen was whoa, like,
this is going to be bad and bleak, but they
had everything go right that could have. Now there's still
(42:53):
some bag games. There are still gonna be twelve backup
quarterbacks that we have to watch. The Sunday afternoon slate
is going to be pretty sad, and there's some games
that you just bet right now. I mean you can
if you have info or have a strong but like
the rams, like based on Seattle for the forty nine
hours rears old, it's probably what's going to determine if
they rest their starters. The Eagles, how are they gonna
wrest their start? There's a lot of like unknowns. Now
(43:14):
there's gonna be some line moves, so we'll we'll recap
everything and update everyone where things stand on Friday this week.
That's we have New Year's Eve Wednesday and Newyear's Date Thursday,
so or second episode this week will be on Friday.
Speaker 1 (43:27):
Right correct. Let's wrap with our Tuesday primer courtesy of
Evan Abrams. It is live now over at Action network
dot com. Evan, welcome to the show. Do you think
the cat was a sign that we should be on
the Panthers this week?
Speaker 5 (43:44):
I like the Bucks, so I'm gonna say no. But
normally I would say sad cats. It had to be
a sign, but not with this situation.
Speaker 2 (43:51):
Down to you, No, Hank is a happy cat. It
was a Bengals sign.
Speaker 5 (43:54):
It give me a Jaguar sign too. Let's just be good.
Speaker 1 (43:56):
Roll spray paint the cat like a Bengal.
Speaker 4 (43:59):
Come on, can we have.
Speaker 3 (44:00):
Cat parley this week?
Speaker 2 (44:01):
MIGHT want to keep you guys like the box.
Speaker 3 (44:03):
I might do this on my own. I might be
on the Lions, dude, I did.
Speaker 1 (44:07):
I'd like the Lions. I haven't completely dug into that one.
I did bet the Jags already, so we could definitely.
Speaker 3 (44:14):
I saw that pop in from you this morning on
the app.
Speaker 1 (44:16):
We could definitely do that. Yeah, there was an eleven
and a half hanging out there. I don't think this
line's gonna tilt closer to thirteen, so that was more
of a number play all right, Evan, what are we
looking at anything that we need to know before we
hit Is this the toughest week to put the primer together,
by the way I would think it is, Well.
Speaker 5 (44:35):
Yeah, I mean you're also adding incentives, milestones, records into
the article, plus playoff scenarios. I was up till like
two thirty or three because I wanted to get it
out the door. It is out the door. We are done,
we move on to the playoffs. Just some fun stuff here.
So week seventeen and eighteen, dogs of over a full
touchdown seven and a half or more are actually plus
nine point seven percent return on investment. They are sixteen
(44:57):
and fifty three. But it doesn't matter when you're geting
that big of a dog. So at the moment, it's
and obviously those are closing lines. It'd be Arizona Chargers, Colts, Browns, Titans, Dolphins,
really the ugliest of ugly, but you probably just need
two or three to come into profit. So that has
looked decent last decade or so in the last two
(45:18):
weeks of the regular season, and honestly, this is just
a fun one. So obviously Chargers rest sitting, everybody completely resting,
But Jim Harbaugh with the Chargers ten to zero to
one against the spread versus the AFC West, so he
has absolutely covered all the numbers and this week he
gets a massive number. Here's a great one. The Jacksonville defense,
(45:40):
especially rush defense, have not allowed a player to rush
for seventy five yards seventy five yards in a single
game this year, so they've had eight running backs at
sixty plus. They are eight and o to the under
so we will see how that moves towards the playoffs.
But that's intriguing, and of course I gotta say it
Raven Steelers, we always talk about it every time he
(46:02):
seems play but the underdog just ridiculous records. Twenty five
and seven when Tomlin faces Harbaugh and in the regular
season with a line of three or more, twenty four
and five against the spread, just stupid, stupid numbers. And
we will see without DK Metcalf if the Steelers can
keep that rolling.
Speaker 1 (46:18):
And Lamar Jackson has not been ruled in just yet,
so keep an eye on that one. That's another one
that I don't feel comfortable betting that just yet until
we know what that quarterback situation is going to look
like because We're definitely gonna see some movement there. As
far as I had asked about totals, is there anything
(46:39):
on these teams that are punting to the postseason or
the offseason that are not really interested in Week eighteen?
Is there anything to be gained here in terms of unders,
wacky overs, anything of the sort.
Speaker 5 (46:55):
I don't really have anything in terms of like the
totals themselves this late in the season, but I could
take to look down. If there's anything good, I'll at
it to the Primer.
Speaker 1 (47:02):
Evan, thank you so much for all the work that
you've done on the Primer throughout the course of the
regular season. We'll be sure to check that out when
we get the playoff mode as well. That'll do it
for today's episode special thanks to our producers David Paine
and Gifford Gold. The Favorites will return on Friday. Right
here on the Action Network YouTube page, we talk Week
eighteen best bets in the NFL and nominate our two
(47:25):
Kings and a Queen Paulay. The last one of the
regular season. We'll see you here next time on The Favorites,
presented by DraftKings. A Happy New Year to all.
Speaker 3 (47:43):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast, and the regular season
in the NFL is wrap it up. I'm Brandon Kravitz
back at it on this fine Tuesday morning. The first
Lady of the pod, Kendri Middleton, is with us the
Prime Minister of DJA Nation Stuckey as well, who is
ready to run through the machinations that are involved in
(00:33):
Week eighteen in the NFL. We've got our Plant the
Flag game for Week eighteen. No more Thursday night football,
so no preview to get to there, but we've got
scenarios galore and of course the main event, Evan's Tuesday
Primer live as of right now on Actionnetwork dot com.
Here's what we know, as far as I understand it.
(00:55):
The Broncos clinch the AFC West. The Patriots have clinched
the AFCs. The Texans, Chargers, and Bills all share the
same record. They are locked into the playoffs, but not
necessarily into their specific seting. The Bears have clinched the
NFC North, The Eagles have clinched the NFC East. The
Seahawks and forty nine Ers fight it out for the
(01:16):
one seed on Saturday, and the Packers are locked in
to the seventh spot. Stucky, did I nail this? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (01:24):
I mean that's those are the certainties. I mean to
run through everything to give everyone like a high level.
I'll try to do it in like two minutes. So Denver,
where is yours?
Speaker 1 (01:35):
My friend?
Speaker 2 (01:36):
So Denver hosts the Chargers. If they win, they clinched
the one seed because they have the tiebreaker over the Patriots.
The Chargers in very uncharger like fashion because last week
can Beek eighteen with a chance to go from the
sixth seed to the five seed. They play their starters.
Looks like they're going to start Trey Lance rest starters,
which is why Denver is now a significant double digit favorite.
(01:57):
So if Denver wins that game, they clinched the one seat,
they will have a buy and home field advantage throughout.
So if New England, say, say the Broncos blow out
the Chargers, Pats rest their starters, and you know you
have the Dolphins come back to win. Well, if the
Jags were to win, the Jags would jump the Pats.
(02:18):
So maybe the Pats say we want to win this
game and lock up the two regardless that that's a
decision has to be made internally. But keep that in
mind because just because the Broncos win doesn't mean that
the Pets still can't lose a seed, but they will
either be the two or the three. If we assume
that the Broncos win and the Patriots win Broncos are one,
(02:40):
Patriots are two, then your three seed comes down to
Jacksonville or Houston, the winner of that division. Jacksonville wins,
they win the division. If Jacksonville loses that and the
Texans win, the Texans win the division. And then it
could get real weird where if you have the Jags. Now,
(03:04):
the Chargers have to win for this to happen, so
it's unlikely. But if the Jags lost and the Chargers
won and the Bills won, then the Bills, Chargers, and
Jags would all be tied. It comes down to strength
the victory, which the Bills can't win, the Jags and
the Chargers. It would come down to like every game
would matter on Sunday. It's very close, but that's very
unlikely to happen. So really what you're looking at the
AFC Broncos win one seed, Pats win two seed, they're
(03:28):
double digit favorites. Jags also a double digit favorite. Likely
the three seed winner of the AFC North between the
Steelers and Ravens on Sunday night is the four seed,
and then you know, most likely the Texans will end
up being the five seed. They will travel to the
winner of the AFC North between the Steelers and the Ravens,
(03:49):
and then you know you're gonna have the So if
the Chargers lose, they're resting everyone, and then the Bills win,
I assume they're gonna rest everyone as well. Then the
Chargers to the seventh seed and they would go to
presumably New England, Buffalo would go to Jacksonville. So that's
how I think it's probably gonna work out. Now in
(04:09):
the NFL that rarely happens, but I think the way
that it's going to look Denver by Chargers at Patriots,
Bills at Jags, Texans at Raven's that's how I think
it plays out NFC. While you have McVeigh came out,
Rams lose again last week. I mean, it's crazy what's
happening in ten day A ten day stretch for the
(04:30):
Rams who looked like they were headed to the.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
One C the question about the AFC before we move on.
Speaker 4 (04:36):
Sure, do you think because of last night and what
happened with Matt Stafford it changes any of the Patriots
plans for MVP for Drake May and incentives that they
have to hit for Hunter Henry and Stefan Diggs.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Yeah, I mean, I think regardless, they're they're gonna play
him and play their full offense in the first half,
and I think that they'll probably play most of the
game because like the two seas could end up being valuable.
They ad he's wide open, like Denver is your one, right,
so like Denver is very vulnerable to getting the two
compared to the three could mean that you're hosting the
(05:10):
AFC Championship game. So I think regardless, he's gonna play
most of the game. Like where where could like if
the Jags somehow are getting blown out and the you know,
the the Broncos are blowing out the Chargers, then maybe
we rest them late. But I do think that they
he'll get his numbers in the first half and there
(05:32):
are some incentives there that could matter. So I think
for the most part, you'll see the Patriots starters for
like a half, three quarters, most likely for the full game,
but there could be some scoreboard watching. But that is
a good point. But in the NFC you have the
Packers are locked in to the seven. The one seed
is going to go to the winner of the Seahawks
and forty nine Ers, which is on Saturday. If the
(05:55):
forty nine Ers win, they get home field throughout through
the Super Bowl, which we'll hear a lot of. And
if the forty nine Ers win, keep this in mind,
Seattle locked into the five. So Seattle's in a good spot.
They're either get the one seed or the five, and
then they go to the winner of the NFC North.
If that happens, the Rams are locked into the six.
Now McVeigh came out and said he's gonna rest his
(06:15):
I mean he's gonna play his starters, which is very
unlike McVeigh, which makes sense if the Seahawks win on Saturday.
Because if the Seahawks win on Saturday, they can jump
up to the five. That's a big difference. That's a
difference between going most likely to Philly or to the
NFC the NFC South winner. So I think that's what's
gonna make that decision with the Rams is the result
(06:36):
of the Seahawks forty nine Ers game. But if the
forty nine Ers win, Rams are locked into the six.
If the Seahawks win, Seahawks have the one. Rams can
jump up to the five with a win, and then
the forty nine Ers would drop to the six. If
the Rams get upset by the Cardinals, then you know
they would be the six. The forty nine Ers would
be the five. The two to three is either going
(06:57):
to be the Bears or the Eagles. Same record, but
Bears have the head to head. So Bears win at
home against the Lions. Some bad blood there. I'm sure
the Lions are gonna try. They have a lot of injuries.
I don't know who they're gonna end up sitting out,
but they're gonna try Stan Campbell. But if the Bears
win that game, they clinch the number two seed. If
the Bears slip up to the Lions and the Eagles
(07:18):
beat the Commanders with what looks like it's gonna be
Josh Johnson again, then the Eagles would jump up to
the number two seed. I thought that the Eagles would
play their starters. I think that that's I do think
the two seed matters for both teams. Both the Bears
and the Eagles. Like the Bear is one of the
best running teams in the NFL, you get home games
and in the NFC's wide open, like it could end
up in Seattle, like Darnold is the one seed, like
(07:38):
that could Bean hosting the NFC championship game. So I
think the Bears are gonna try, but it sounds like
the Eagles might rest starters. So we'll see May and
maybe they're watching the Bears game. There's a lot of play,
but as of right now, it looks like the Bear
the Eagles might rest some key starters, and then the
four seed is going to either be Carolina or Tampa.
What made this now, Well, Sunday's like there's three primary games.
(08:02):
We talked about this on the Sunday Night episode. Three
primary isolated island time slots that are like really impactful.
It's the forty nine Ers, Seahawks, the Panthers, Bucks, and
then Sunday Night Football between the Ravens and the Steelers.
The rest of the Sunday slate is pretty ass. However,
if the Bucks win, it got a lot more interesting
(08:25):
because of last night because the Pan. If the Bucks win,
the Panthers get in if the Falcons beat the Saints,
so all of a sudden, this Falcon Saints game becomes
a playing game, even though neither team is making the playoffs,
which makes that super interesting. Rest of the Sunday slate
pretty boring as far as the afternoon slates go. But
the most likely scenario, Seattle is your one. So what
(08:49):
I think is gonna happen. I really Seattle stand Frans
a coin flip. But if Seattle wins, then so like,
let's let's take the scenario where Seattle wins. Seattle wins,
I think the Rams play their starters and then they
beat the Cardinals, which would mean that the Rams jump
(09:10):
up to the five, would go to Carolina or Tampa.
The forty nine ers would go to Philly if the
Bears win, and then the Packers would go to the Bears.
Banger games, Seattle gets to buy, but if the forty
nine ers. When forty nine ers get to buy, Seattle
goes to the NFC South winner, the Rams go to Philly,
and then the Packers go to the Bears. Now the
(09:32):
Bears lose, it would beat Packers going to the Eagles
and Rams going to the Bears. Banger Games in the
NFC A lot to sort through. Hope all that made sense,
but that's kind of the everything that you need to know.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
Well done, well done. That was a very NBA two minutes.
I believe Kendrick.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
When I say two minutes, I mean ten.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
I think it was week with my interruption, it was
about six and a half.
Speaker 3 (09:59):
No, he might be better at our jobs than we are.
Speaker 4 (10:06):
I have to kill air on the radio before a
break so often, Stuck, you should get into radio.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
I mean that's kind of podcasting with the radio stuff.
Speaker 1 (10:19):
But yeah, four hours feeling. It's hard to do a
show by yourself. I think Stucky would be able to
do that with general ease. That would not be a concern.
Speaker 4 (10:28):
Now in the summer and there's no sports on Tough,
but Stuck could do it.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
I would bet a lot of money. That would be
very juice on the money line. Now there's another side
to this. Those are all the things that matter, Kendra.
You have said, as salty as you were about it
on Sunday, I'm not into it. I'm not trying to
bet this ship. I'm good you hate it.
Speaker 3 (10:57):
It's not fun.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
So what I want what I'm gonna allow you to
do here is I'm gonna allow you to eliminate three
games from discussion today. Can't plant the flag on them, nothing,
Just get them out of the podcast, get them out
of your mind, and move the hell on. What three
games would you like to nominate?
Speaker 2 (11:19):
Of course, before before she answers that I this will
make it a little more fun, I do want to
say that. I for every week eighteen and actually for
every week I do do this. I had somehow there's
three games that I for my notes for all of
them before I broke them down, I just wrote no thanks,
(11:39):
like I'm not touching them. So I'm gonna see if.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
The okay we match.
Speaker 4 (11:43):
I have never been so drunk with power, and you
will never see me so drunk with power ever again,
unless for some reason I get my hands on a
T shirt cannon. But I'm gonna go Chiefs, Raiders, don't care, Cowboys, Giants,
get it the fuck out of here for two.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
And I know that we have loved.
Speaker 4 (12:02):
The Saints and loved the Falcons this year, but their
Super Bowl is over. This is probably what should be.
I agree with what Stucky said on Twitter. The NFC
South play like playing game, but it's over.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
It's done. Who cares. I've seen enough of Tyler.
Speaker 4 (12:16):
Shuck whatever, it's over, goodbye, And I'm mad at Bijon
Robinson for obvious reasons.
Speaker 1 (12:21):
Oh, Bijon, we should have taken the rushing number. The
receiving prop killed us. We had a Monday night football
parlay that was so close.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
We're close. We're two for two on that the I
mean the Falcon Saints game. That could be fascinating if.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
The vib into it. That's so cool.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
You're gonna get You're gonna like, yes, they're playing for
other teams, which like ads even though like they don't care.
I'm sure they don't care, like which one of those
teams gets in like having that, uh, just knowing that
going into a week eighteen game after you've been eliminated,
I think it's pretty cool, Like that's gonna give it
both teams, like just I think some extra juice and
(13:00):
some intrigue if if they end up in a tie,
by the way, the Bucks would still go like, imagine
that game goes to overtime, so.
Speaker 4 (13:09):
That game could what if they could they tie on purpose?
That would be so funny.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
Well, they they also the Panthers have an incentive to tie.
So if the Panthers tie, they're also get in. So
it's like they get to overtime and they have the
ball and like they just run out the clock. They
get in with the tie. If the Bucks win and
then the Saints and Falcons tie, then the Bucks get in.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
Maybe maybe these teams like hate secretly hate the Panthers
and want to collude. I don't know. I'll never forget
that Week eight team game between the Raiders and Chargers
when Brandon Staley called a time out to get uh
and they didn't tie when they were both incentivized to tie.
That was ridiculous. So what do we have an announcement
(13:55):
here for this one?
Speaker 4 (14:00):
Boston twenty five News breaking news. Patriot star Stefan Diggs
facing strangulation and assault charges as of eleven fifteen AM.
I can send this in our chat if we would
like to look at it. I don't know what this
means for their playoff anything, obviously, but this is breaking
news from Boston twenty five News.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
Seven minutes to go.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
Wow, no Digs and the Pats might have to face
the starting quarterback.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
So I but Kendra, so I agree with you. Ola,
ducon a six point favorite on the road against a
team actively trying to lose. Who knows who else they're
gonna sit this week, get that game, Like I'm gonna
have red zone on on Sunday. There should I think
this will happen in the future, where like what we're
(14:50):
talking about, you get to select, like which games you
don't don't want to have come along the red zone,
like customizable resid I know I do that when we're
at the bar. You can customize your three screens, and
I'll do that on some of my screens, but like
give me a red zone, but skip certain games like
you like there's different posts, customizable packages that game. No,
(15:14):
I think the Chiefs probably want to lose two because
of draft positioning. It's something They're playing the Broncos with
some juice at home on Christmas Night. They cared last week.
They could be as careless as they were for the
Titans game. So that game, that's one of the worst
games of the year. Chief sever Raiders.
Speaker 4 (15:29):
I saw a like discourse on Twitter this week about
what if the playoffs were structured where like the highest
seed gets to choose who they play, so like the
one seed would pick first, and then the two seed
would pick from who was left, would you guy? I
mean like it would make the regular season a lot
less valuable.
Speaker 3 (15:47):
But I don't hate that, would you guys? Hate that?
Speaker 1 (15:50):
They've talked about that in the NBA as well. I
think it's the issue becomes the optic is that you
have teams that are that are selecting what they feel
to be bottom featers, and that just looks bad for
the league. But I think it would be fun. I
mean that sounds like something you would do in fantasy football. Yeah,
(16:11):
so that could be I mean, I think it's less
offensive in the in the NFL because everybody's kind of dangerous.
In the NFL and the NBA, you're like, yeah, I
want them because we're going to sweep that team.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
I do think that they might be heading down a
path where you have to change the way that the
number one pick is awarded. I don't know how you
would do it, because the way that the league works,
you do want the really really bad teams to be
able to get a quarterback. But this trend now, and
this is like across sports, which we're starting to see
(16:44):
of like what the Raiders did last week with two
weeks to go like benching your best player who wanted
to play. That's it. I mean, there's only seventeen games,
and it's that's a dangerous path and I don't like that.
I don't know how you solve it. But the haven't
said he liked big he likes big cats. I do
you need a minimum amount of wins to be eligible?
Speaker 4 (17:06):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (17:07):
So yeah, the way the Saints Falcons does have some
ramifications as far as the uh not for them, but
as far as the season total goes. The the over
under for the Saints one season, early in the off season,
I think this was right before Derek Carr officially retired.
Speaker 2 (17:25):
It was six and a half and Falcons in total too, so.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
They I and I that was one of three total
bets that I made before the season was Saints under
six and a half wins. I need them to lose
to the Atlanta Falcons. I thought for sure a month
ago this was as safe as safe could be. And
they've gone on a little heater here and then, and
then you have the Falcons trying to play spoiler. I'm
I'm kind of into that game and part of it
(17:51):
is financially driven.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
But Falcons win total offensive Rookie of the year. Bijon
is going toe it? What are the Bejon props going
to be this week? After last week and they're they're
gonna pepper him? Okay, what's going for the scrimmage record?
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Okay? So I know that Zucky has this one coming
up later in the show. Brown's Bengals. Why is that interesting?
Speaker 4 (18:17):
Are you joking because Joe Burrow and the boys are hooping?
Speaker 2 (18:22):
Why is that interesting?
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Uh?
Speaker 2 (18:24):
Someone's going from Garrett? Yeah, Miles Garrett.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
That's fair.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
Yeah, what game would you have picked?
Speaker 4 (18:30):
Like?
Speaker 2 (18:30):
My other third game though is Packers Vikings. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (18:33):
I thought about that, but I probably care less about
the Saints and the Viking.
Speaker 3 (18:38):
About the Saints and the Falcons.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
Packers Vikings, like the Packers are rest are going to
rest everyone. Maybe Malik will starts, I don't know. I
don't know. But they're resting every key fire because they're
locked in last year you had love get Bang w
Watson tears a c L. They've had so many injuries,
they're resting everyone. Maybe McCarthy plays for the Vikings, but
(19:00):
there's a chance this is Max Bros.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
I think he does. I was gonna say it's got
to be broad.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
Yeah, this is ugly. This could be Brosmer versus Tune.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
Brosner six point favorite against Tune. This is that. That's
Chiefs Raiders. Get that half of my life, Kendrick.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
Can we punt that one? Can we get that one
out of here? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (19:16):
Sure, I don't care. We can.
Speaker 4 (19:17):
We can squash all four of them if you really
feel like it, because I don't give a shit.
Speaker 1 (19:22):
Okay, all right, sounds good. We are about to dive
deep into our plant the Flag games, but first a
word from our very own Kendra Middleton.
Speaker 4 (19:29):
The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sports book,
where new customers can bet five dollars and get two
hundred dollars back in bonus.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
Bets if your bet wins.
Speaker 4 (19:38):
Stay in on the action and use your bonus bets
on DraftKings same game parlays for a shot at even
bigger payout. To get started to use promo code Favorites
when signing up with DraftKings Again, use code Favorites when
signing up and bet five bucks to get two hundred
back in bonus bets. If your bet wins, the crown
is yours, all right, Kendrick.
Speaker 1 (19:58):
Before we get to the plays that will kick off
our week, what is on your mind?
Speaker 2 (20:04):
What could you have been acting?
Speaker 4 (20:15):
Before Philip Rivers was even brought up. We could all
agree that bringing back somebody that old sounded insane, and
now because of the games that we've had on Christmas
and the number of backup quarterbacks, third string quarterbacks we've seen,
looking back on this, it truly was the right decision.
And I think that this is probably going to wind
(20:37):
up changing quarterbacking as we know it. I think we're
probably going to see older guys stick around for longer.
This singular move honestly might have saved Kirk Cousins from
retirement or having the Falcons scratch this guaranteed money that
they were going to owe him if he stayed. I
think that they're probably happily going to give that.
Speaker 3 (20:54):
To him now.
Speaker 4 (20:55):
One because of obviously Michael Pennicks tearing his same acl
for like the third time. But two, the value that
Philip Rivers has shown in a veteran over some of
these young guys with the lack of experience has been.
Speaker 3 (21:07):
Beyond eye opening.
Speaker 4 (21:08):
I mean, this guy was an incredible quarterback ten years ago,
Sat on the couch for five years, came back and
competed and honestly better than a lot of the third
string young guys we saw. So I think that this
is probably going to seriously change quarterbacking in the future.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
I don't know how you guys feel, but I.
Speaker 4 (21:26):
Thought that this was a good topic to discuss because
I think things could seriously look really different moving forward.
Speaker 1 (21:31):
I think what it does is it restores some values
of the position that have been lost lately. We are
so obsessed and I've certainly fallen victim to this of saying,
if this quarterback can't move, then they just can't work
in today's NFL. I think what Philip Rivers taught me
because I thought this was going to be a disaster, leadership, ball, placement,
(21:55):
understanding what the defense is throwing at you, all these
things that when I was growing up, that was all
that mattered at the quarterback position. And it seems like
lately athleticism has become such a big component into how
we evaluate quarterbacks. And Philip Rivers couldn't fucking move and
the guy was still effective at the position. All of
(22:15):
those things still.
Speaker 4 (22:17):
Good teams good teams too, Like good teams in.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
High pressure situations. I think we have lost sight of
how important the basics are at the quarterback position, leadership,
ball placement most specifically, And Philip Rivers showed that that's
the thing that I took away from it stuck.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
Yeah, I mean, I think you need to be able
to move some to be an elite quarterback in the
NFL these days, because there's an offensive line problem in
the NFL. The edge rushers are getting better, although like
there's still some guys that are just like Burrow, He's
not gonna run and he's gonna sit in the pocket.
But I think that then after like your elite guys
(22:56):
who can move for the for the most part, if
you just list like the top ten quarterbacks, they're all
going to have mobility like your elite eyes. But then
there's there's a quarterback shortage in the NFL, and then
like there are so many bad quarterbacks that the value
of just having a guy who can who is accurate,
can command the offense, I think was is has been lost,
(23:21):
as Brandon said, And there's there's always going to be
a a place for older quarterbacks because the Steelers exist.
So what do they do next year? They're like the
falling down like them. The quarterback story for next year
is you obviously have like the Raiders are going to
draft a quarterback, right the Giants that they stick with Dart.
Speaker 3 (23:46):
For sure, So like you have does Kyler move?
Speaker 2 (23:51):
Yeah, so too, I think is moving and then Kyler's
probably gone. Does Kyler like go to Miami? I don't
know what does Dan would with Daniel Jones because he
only signed a one year deal, so he's gone, or
like that the Colts end up resigning to the other colts,
the Steelers. What happens with Rogers? Like those are your
QB moving pieces? And like there's also a world where
(24:13):
like the Raiders draft someone but need an older guy
right as.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
A bridge the same to have some questions.
Speaker 4 (24:21):
I think Tyler Shuck's their guy, but they doubted they did,
They doubted him for quite some time.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
Yeah, so's there's opportunities. I'm good should have to highlight
the quarterback shorts. It's like there was an article yesterday
I said, like here are the three teams that could
give Daniel Jones one hundred and fifty million, like like
that these guy towards ACL he's not been great his
whole career. I get it good if you flashed this
year a little bit, but like that's Daniel Jones is
like a hot commodity. So yeah, I think it's a
(24:48):
good point and worthy of discussion. But I liked I
think the most impressive thing about Rivers is his level
of care, Like he was like the most. He cared
more than any other cold on the field. Screaming on
the sidelines, Oh my.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
God, I love it.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
And then that's one of the things you.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Know, and how many guys come into the league, even
if their veterans of five or six years, are willing
to scream at their offensive linemen if they if they
false start. There's I think it's a cultural thing. We're
afraid of confrontation now more than ever, and Philip Rivers
is going in on his offensive line if they screw up.
(25:30):
That's leadership, being able to and not doing it just
because you want to be a dick, but doing it
because you're trying to be better on every single play.
It was old school leadership. It was really cool to
see and I thought it was going to be a
train wreck and it wasn't.
Speaker 3 (25:45):
Was it really give more value?
Speaker 1 (25:47):
Like I think it gives him less in some regard
because I don't think he's a good leader. I think
it shows just how important that I.
Speaker 4 (25:54):
Don't know, because like if you've seen you're a Dolphins fan,
you should have seen all this all week, all the
clips of him on the bench with Quinn helping him out,
helping him.
Speaker 3 (26:01):
Like read the iPad.
Speaker 4 (26:03):
He has not gone like full scorged earth, like he's
being a mentor to Quinn you wears, And I think
that that shows something from him.
Speaker 2 (26:11):
Back up there's but listen up, we got sixty minutes,
sixty minutes tonight, four hours of pain. I still laugh
at his pregame type speech.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
In the tunnel another day closer to doth So uh.
Speaker 2 (26:24):
Yeah, it'll be well, we'll have a lot of time
to discuss. So sure, quarterback Carasel on the off season.
Speaker 1 (26:29):
We're going to talk about the college ranks before we
get to our plant the flag games. Let's sling it
over to the CFP. It's that mysterious time after Christmas Day,
right before New Year's Day that our couch becomes the
thing that we have a very intimate relationship with. That's
where we watch Quinn you ers sling the ball around
the yard and because that's where you watch your Sling TV.
(26:52):
The best way to not miss a single moment of
the college football playoffs is with Sling TV. So we're
going to tell the folks all about Sling TV and
how they can cover you this holiday season. With Sling TV,
you take full control with the flexible package option of one, three,
and seven day passes for access to thirty plus live channels,
(27:12):
which includes ESPN and TNT, so that you're covered for
the Orange Bowl, the Rose Bowl, the Cotton Bowl, and more. So,
tell that family friend or family member about Sling TV.
Let's put together an all day parlay for New Year's
Day college football playoff quarterfinal games on Thursday. Stucky, Let's
(27:33):
start with you. You're the college football guru here on
the pod. Who are we betting on New Year's Day?
Speaker 2 (27:40):
Let's just start off. We'll put an anchor in their
Indiana on the money line to get it done. I
think much better team. I think this line is a
little short. Albama can't run the ball, they can't get pressure.
Indiana elite staff extra time to prepare here. But the
one dimensional Alabama attack. They've been so fortunate for about
two months fortunate against Oklahoma, probably should have lost to Auburn,
(28:03):
probably should have lost to South Carolina. I just don't
think this Alabama team is elite. I think this Indiana
team is clearly one of the two best teams in
the country, maybe three. If you want to throw a
Notre Dame in, there is not in. But yeah, I
think Indiana is too well balanced. Like, if you look
at these teams, one of these teams can run the ball,
(28:24):
one of these teams can get after the quarterback, and
that one is Indiana in both aspects. I think that's
the difference. So give me the Hoosiers to advance.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
I dig it. I'm into Indiana, Kendra, what about you?
Speaker 4 (28:38):
I'm going with the Oregon money line. I think the
Ducks are going to be one of the most slept
on teams throughout this entire postseason. I think that they
could win a national championship this year if some things
go right for them. For me, it's just one I
don't love a lot of times teams that spend a
ton of time on their couch in between games or
(29:00):
is obviously coming off of a feel good, pretty easy
win for them. I think it was an easy spot
for them to get up can give them some momentum
moving forward. But the other thing for me is that
there's some continuity on their roster. And Oregon's been one
of these teams since the dawn of time who has
invested a lot of money into their program, whereas Texas
Tech hasn't. This is they're new to putting a ton
(29:21):
of nil all of this money into this program. It's
really the first year that it's paid dividends for them,
whereas with Oregon it's been that way for a long time,
which is where they get that continuity. So I like
Oregon in this spot, don't love that they've been on
their couch for quite some time.
Speaker 3 (29:35):
I think Oregon probably rolls here.
Speaker 1 (29:37):
Okay, well, then I'm gonna have to change my pick
because I think putting Texas Tech plus two and a
half in there would be kind of silly.
Speaker 3 (29:43):
At this point, I like this one better than anyway.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
Well, I'm gonna go with the I'm gonna have a role.
I'm I'm gonna throw Georgia in there at minus six
and a half against Ole Miss I think this is
where not having Lane Kiffen wasn't going to impact them
against two not having your head coach will impact you
against Kirby Smart with extra time to prepare. I think
(30:08):
people are gonna come in on Old miss after watching
them route the green wave, and uh, I think it's
a mistake. So I will throw Georgia minus six and
a half in there. We're gonna add Indiana's money line
and Oregon's money line as well into our college football
all day parlay. Sling TV also coming in in the
(30:30):
clutch for both NFL games on Saturday this week and
some NFL playoff games that are coming up. So now
is the time to acquaint yourself with Sling TVs one,
three and seven day passes. Time to plant our flag
presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
It shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 1 (30:52):
Okay, you're really planning your flag in that thing. Kendro,
We're back to you. What are we looking at?
Speaker 4 (30:58):
You?
Speaker 3 (30:58):
Guys? Stole both my picks.
Speaker 4 (31:00):
I logged on here and Stucky is just his brain
is just so full of anything that he doesn't often
fill out notes. He just comes prepared and knows all
of the numbers in immediate real time.
Speaker 3 (31:10):
And for the first time ever, I logged on.
Speaker 4 (31:12):
To fill on our notes, and Stucky had filled them out,
so I couldn't beat him to the pick that I wanted,
and then you had the Panthers. That number's gone now,
which makes me feel a little bit vindicated. You guys
stole both of my picks, so I think I might
go depending on starters for the Colts, I might lean Colts.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
I gotta be honest with you, guys.
Speaker 4 (31:31):
I know that that's yucky, but it is a divisional
game and it just feels large.
Speaker 3 (31:38):
I think it's ten and a half.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
Now, you can take whatever game you want. Mind you're pi.
My cat's trying to break in.
Speaker 1 (31:44):
Right about Don Cappy? About Don Cappy And so now
you've heard the tale I tell that's Ai l I'm
talking about the tail of that.
Speaker 3 (32:01):
Dog cat show us the cat.
Speaker 4 (32:04):
I think I think I'm gonna go with the Colts,
depending on who's gonna play and who's not. But that's
probably gonna be where I'm getting just because it's in
division and it might be.
Speaker 3 (32:11):
A little bit of an emotional bet. But here we are.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
Well okay, but we might also get Riley Leonard. Does
that make that's why less? Does that make you like
this any less that it might be they might go
Riley Leonard.
Speaker 3 (32:23):
Here it is going to be. I think it is
going to be Riley Leonard.
Speaker 4 (32:26):
But no, it's still a divisional game, and the Colts
did play the drugs pretty tough for a.
Speaker 3 (32:30):
Hot yay is the cat that's such a cute cat stuck.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
He's got a little heart heart white spot right there.
He's basically parlay.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
Who's that?
Speaker 2 (32:43):
This is Hank.
Speaker 3 (32:45):
I'm gonna cry.
Speaker 2 (32:47):
But he's like a dog like he our nieces and
nephews just like carrying around. They just like they'll like
grab him like this and just walk around them. He
just lets anyone do whatever they want.
Speaker 1 (32:58):
That's awesome. My cats love it.
Speaker 4 (33:01):
Anyways, This might be half emotional, half brain, but I
think the Colts are going to try and show up
and play. Whether it's I do think it's gonna be
Riley Leonard, but I still think they're gonna show up
to play.
Speaker 1 (33:11):
I think Hank would be on the sad Cats. The
Panthers plus the points.
Speaker 3 (33:17):
Then do what you coward.
Speaker 1 (33:20):
No, I'm not I'm not gonna do that. I planted
I as I lost a point, we crossed three. I
already bet this and plus three. So this opened at
three and a half. I got it at three. Couple
of hours later that thing got gobbled up like a
like a Thanksgiving turkey. And then now we're down to
two and a half. I I can't advise the Panthers anymore.
(33:42):
If anything, I would tease them with somebody else that
you like. Maybe I love a good teaser. How about
Panthers up to eight and a half and the San
Francisco forty nine ers up to seven and a half.
There you go, have yourself a fun day on Saturday.
I will plant my flag though, on San Francisco plus
one one and a half against Seattle. Not only for
the division. This one's for the one seed, and I
(34:04):
feel like the forty nine ers, for the first time
in their existence, are the team that nobody's talking about.
Brock Party is as hot as any in the NFL,
thirteen touchdowns in his last three games. We do have
to monitor the Trent Williams injury. He injured his hamstring
on Sunday Night Football. I think George Kittle is going
to play and be back in this one. Mind you,
(34:24):
they ran up the score or they've got into the
forties against the Bears without their best receiver in George Kittle.
San Francisco is initially listed as a favorite in this one.
Money came in on Seattle. We've seen some resistance at
plus one and a half, so I think the number
is likely going to settle where it's at. Happy to
be on the home dog here give me the forty
(34:45):
nine ers plus one and a half and a headshake
from Tendra.
Speaker 2 (34:49):
Seattle kind of got screwed like they they were on
the East Coast and because of the NFL, like the
NFL did just so they're just TV and just greed.
Like all these games that are correlated we be at
the same time on Sundays. You should just have like
a one o'clock correlated games, four o'clock core later games
mixing your games that are mean nothing. But they gotta
(35:09):
have Saturday games. So Seattle has to come across the
country on the secondary road game in a short week
for the division in the one seed. But I think
Kittle on Williams are a huge year. Yeah, they can
get away with it against the Bears defense. The Bears
defense is atrocious, but against the Seattle defense, but yeah,
the Seattle offense is trending way down. I mean, even
against the Panthers defense, I can't get pressure.
Speaker 3 (35:32):
Donald Donald has incentives this weekend too.
Speaker 2 (35:35):
Donald looked really bad. But since kender wouldn't, I don't
even know what Kendrick's planned their flag on. Maybe the Colts, so.
Speaker 3 (35:43):
Riley Leonard or not? I hate this week? You got it.
Speaker 2 (35:46):
It's gonna be Riley Leonard, Riley Leonard starting.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
Why isn't Philip Rivers going to play one more game?
Speaker 2 (35:53):
I guess they just want to see you might as
well see what you got since the game means nothing to.
Speaker 1 (35:57):
It's a it's a learn learn about your guys, learn
about your personnel kind of game. For the Colts, well, season.
Speaker 3 (36:04):
Was pretty much over. You couldn't let them. You could
have let that happen a month ago.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
The last week they said that because there was a
chance that the Colts still could have made the playoffs
before some of the other results. And they said that
they're gonna start Rivers because he's gonna practice with the
ones all week. But Leonard's gonna practice the ones and start.
I think that's less fun. I would rather it s
all Rivers, But I get it. I'll play my Flags
on two games. We talked about the Panthers Bucks on
(36:29):
Sunday and Brandon would saying, I think you should take
the three and a half. I said, yeah, I mean
three is probably right at two and a half, I'm
taking Tampa. I've been head of the Tampa stinks. I've
been driving that bus all year. Just because Baker had
a couple of miracle last minute wins early in the season,
people thought this team was good. They're not. But the
Panthers aren't good either. This line now two and a half.
(36:51):
Two weeks ago, they were three point favorites in Carolina.
Two weeks ago, we're at the end of the year
and it's not like and the game was a coin flip.
The Bucks had a coverage bus where Dean went played
the wrong coverage at the end of the first half, which
led to a touchdown. The game is a complete coin
flip game. Now two weeks later, the Bucks are under
a Fueld goal at home. I have to take that
(37:13):
at two and a half. I wouldn't I have.
Speaker 3 (37:16):
To sign what's that said? I think Hank was our sign.
Speaker 2 (37:21):
Maybe, but I know I have to take the Bucks.
I mean, I'm worst. I think might be back. There
are some other offensive line injuries. There's some defensive injuries
Dean and Reddit worth monitoring. But like the Panthers, don't
get pressure. Bryce Young on the road it's atrocious. I
mean last week he threw it for fifty hours on
twenty four attempts. I have to take the I have
to take the Bucks minus two and a half here.
Plus it's the NFC South. You know it's going to
(37:42):
come down to Saints Falcons on Sunday. NFL scriptwriters will
ensure that happens. But my my favorite bet is the
Bengals against the Browns. I think the Bengals blow the
doors off the Browns. Browns are simple team people. They're
the least profitable road team over the past three years,
the most profitable home team. Their defense doesn't play the
(38:04):
same on their road. It's like Garrett once he gets
his sack. Okay, good night. But that this Bengals offense
is rolling. Their offensive line is playing better. Mims, Fairchild,
are playing better. You got all your healthy pieces. Burrow's
gonna play. The offense is rolling right now, so they're
gonna put up their points at home.
Speaker 3 (38:22):
Free my boy, Free Joe Burrow from.
Speaker 2 (38:24):
All can the Browns match? No, I don't think Fannon's
gonna play. Fannin's their whole offense. Luckily he played enough.
He played a quarter last week and caught a fifty
our touchdown pass. Because after that the Browns did nothing. Nadjok,
Who's hurt? Fannin's hurt? How are they going to keep
up here? Additionally, I think the Bengals are a little
undervalued right now because their defense is playing much much
(38:48):
better the past six weeks. Number one in EPA per play.
You might say, ah, who have they played ball? Blah?
They played the Ravens twice, the Pats, the Bills, the
Dolphins and someone else. Is probably bad. But that's not
like a stretch of just the worst offenses in the NFL.
So you might ask why why is it? Well, there's
a number of reasons. Over the first ten weeks they
(39:10):
were historically bad. I'm not saying they're a good defense
right now, but they're just like maybe the twenty fifth
best defense, which is all you need with the like.
They just can't be historically bad when you have this
Bengals offense and you're going up against a horrendous Browns D.
But why is the Bengals d trending up? Why? I
think it's real, Well, they have two rookie linebackers who
were the worst in the NFL over the first ten
(39:30):
weeks in Carter Knight. They're playing legitimately better, so not great,
but they were unplayable over the first ten weeks. Now
they're playing better. They also moved Dax Hill out to
the outside. DJ Turner on the other side, has been
one of the best corners in the NFL. Hill's played
amazingly locked down since he's moved to the outside. Because
(39:51):
they had Jeeff what is his name, their new slot
corner who's been on the who's on the practice squad,
He's been with the organization for like five years. He's
come in, played the nickel and played it pretty well.
It's enabled Hill went out after the first ten weeks,
went outside Jalen Davis. So now their corners are playing
(40:12):
really well. Rookie linebackers are playing better. They change some
of their fronts. Slayton's playing better with these new formations
against the run. They're getting something from Miles Murphy finally,
and then you just have Al Golden, who came in
as a new coordinator with a bunch of new pieces
and started to figure some things out schematically. So like,
I do think that the Bengals defense is legitimately improved,
(40:33):
which they've shown over the past six weeks, and you're
playing one of the worst offenses in the NFL, A
defense that doesn't play the same on the road. Could
see this being a little bit of an emotional letdown
for the Grounds, right, they had that huge win over
the Steelers. I don't think they can keep up here.
I think the Bengals role So gimme Sincy in the jungle.
Speaker 1 (40:51):
Tend to agree with that one. So yeah, two from Stuckey.
He's on the Bucks minus two and a half and
the Bengals minus seven against the Cleveland Browns, and we
got Kendra with a shoulder shrug emoji on the Colts
plus ten and a half.
Speaker 3 (41:07):
I second the Bengals. That was gonna be my pick.
Speaker 1 (41:11):
Okay, all right, so.
Speaker 2 (41:12):
Well let you pick now. Are you playing your flag
on the Bengals? All playing on the Bucks minus two
and a half?
Speaker 3 (41:17):
Oh there you go, Okay, I was I was Bengals Panthers.
I was gonna go with the Cats. So Hank is
my sign Meal.
Speaker 1 (41:24):
Okay, so then we're gonna switch this. I'm throwing this,
just see what it looks like. Throw it in a parlay.
We get the Bengals minus seven and a half forty
nine Ers plus one and a half, and the Bucks
minus two and a half at plus five seventy nine
over on Draft Kings. That's not the official two Kings
and a Queen parlay, but just in case you were
curious over on Draft Kings, though.
Speaker 2 (41:44):
The chaptains is gonna matter. The NFL will make sure.
I thought the people think all these games were fixed,
they're not. But the people that do think the games
are fixed, then, like the confused theorists and like the scriptwriters,
the NFL made out last week because everything that needed
to happen for drama did. Like the Ravens beat the.
Speaker 3 (42:01):
Packers, except now no DK in that game.
Speaker 2 (42:04):
Yeah, no DK is huge. But the Browns beat.
Speaker 1 (42:08):
The Steelers off the script.
Speaker 2 (42:11):
Yeah he went off script brown. So Browns beat the Steelers.
Ravens beat the Packers, keeps the AFC North Race down.
At the Sunday night football game. You even had the
Falcons beat the Rams, where now that could that game
could matter? You had the Bucks and the Panthers both lose,
so now that game matters. What else, Oh, you have
(42:33):
the Seahawks win, the forty nine Ers win, so that
game is for the division and for the one seed.
So like everything that possibly that they needed to happen
because there was a path where Week eighteen was whoa, like,
this is going to be bad and bleak, but they
had everything go right that could have. Now there's still
(42:53):
some bag games. There are still gonna be twelve backup
quarterbacks that we have to watch. The Sunday afternoon slate
is going to be pretty sad, and there's some games
that you just bet right now. I mean you can
if you have info or have a strong but like
the rams, like based on Seattle for the forty nine
hours rears old, it's probably what's going to determine if
they rest their starters. The Eagles, how are they gonna
wrest their start? There's a lot of like unknowns. Now
(43:14):
there's gonna be some line moves, so we'll we'll recap
everything and update everyone where things stand on Friday this week.
That's we have New Year's Eve Wednesday and Newyear's Date Thursday,
so or second episode this week will be on Friday.
Speaker 1 (43:27):
Right correct. Let's wrap with our Tuesday primer courtesy of
Evan Abrams. It is live now over at Action network
dot com. Evan, welcome to the show. Do you think
the cat was a sign that we should be on
the Panthers this week?
Speaker 5 (43:44):
I like the Bucks, so I'm gonna say no. But
normally I would say sad cats. It had to be
a sign, but not with this situation.
Speaker 2 (43:51):
Down to you, No, Hank is a happy cat. It
was a Bengals sign.
Speaker 5 (43:54):
It give me a Jaguar sign too. Let's just be good.
Speaker 1 (43:56):
Roll spray paint the cat like a Bengal.
Speaker 4 (43:59):
Come on, can we have.
Speaker 3 (44:00):
Cat parley this week?
Speaker 2 (44:01):
MIGHT want to keep you guys like the box.
Speaker 3 (44:03):
I might do this on my own. I might be
on the Lions, dude, I did.
Speaker 1 (44:07):
I'd like the Lions. I haven't completely dug into that one.
I did bet the Jags already, so we could definitely.
Speaker 3 (44:14):
I saw that pop in from you this morning on
the app.
Speaker 1 (44:16):
We could definitely do that. Yeah, there was an eleven
and a half hanging out there. I don't think this
line's gonna tilt closer to thirteen, so that was more
of a number play all right, Evan, what are we
looking at anything that we need to know before we
hit Is this the toughest week to put the primer together,
by the way I would think it is, Well.
Speaker 5 (44:35):
Yeah, I mean you're also adding incentives, milestones, records into
the article, plus playoff scenarios. I was up till like
two thirty or three because I wanted to get it
out the door. It is out the door. We are done,
we move on to the playoffs. Just some fun stuff here.
So week seventeen and eighteen, dogs of over a full
touchdown seven and a half or more are actually plus
nine point seven percent return on investment. They are sixteen
(44:57):
and fifty three. But it doesn't matter when you're geting
that big of a dog. So at the moment, it's
and obviously those are closing lines. It'd be Arizona Chargers, Colts, Browns, Titans, Dolphins,
really the ugliest of ugly, but you probably just need
two or three to come into profit. So that has
looked decent last decade or so in the last two
(45:18):
weeks of the regular season, and honestly, this is just
a fun one. So obviously Chargers rest sitting, everybody completely resting,
But Jim Harbaugh with the Chargers ten to zero to
one against the spread versus the AFC West, so he
has absolutely covered all the numbers and this week he
gets a massive number. Here's a great one. The Jacksonville defense,
(45:40):
especially rush defense, have not allowed a player to rush
for seventy five yards seventy five yards in a single
game this year, so they've had eight running backs at
sixty plus. They are eight and o to the under
so we will see how that moves towards the playoffs.
But that's intriguing, and of course I gotta say it
Raven Steelers, we always talk about it every time he
(46:02):
seems play but the underdog just ridiculous records. Twenty five
and seven when Tomlin faces Harbaugh and in the regular
season with a line of three or more, twenty four
and five against the spread, just stupid, stupid numbers. And
we will see without DK Metcalf if the Steelers can
keep that rolling.
Speaker 1 (46:18):
And Lamar Jackson has not been ruled in just yet,
so keep an eye on that one. That's another one
that I don't feel comfortable betting that just yet until
we know what that quarterback situation is going to look
like because We're definitely gonna see some movement there. As
far as I had asked about totals, is there anything
(46:39):
on these teams that are punting to the postseason or
the offseason that are not really interested in Week eighteen?
Is there anything to be gained here in terms of unders,
wacky overs, anything of the sort.
Speaker 5 (46:55):
I don't really have anything in terms of like the
totals themselves this late in the season, but I could
take to look down. If there's anything good, I'll at
it to the Primer.
Speaker 1 (47:02):
Evan, thank you so much for all the work that
you've done on the Primer throughout the course of the
regular season. We'll be sure to check that out when
we get the playoff mode as well. That'll do it
for today's episode special thanks to our producers David Paine
and Gifford Gold. The Favorites will return on Friday. Right
here on the Action Network YouTube page, we talk Week
eighteen best bets in the NFL and nominate our two
(47:25):
Kings and a Queen Paulay. The last one of the
regular season. We'll see you here next time on The Favorites,
presented by DraftKings. A Happy New Year to all.
Speaker 3 (47:43):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Hosts And Creators
Chad Millman
Simon Hunter
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Betrayal Season 5
Saskia Inwood woke up one morning, knowing her life would never be the same. The night before, she learned the unimaginable – that the husband she knew in the light of day was a different person after dark. This season unpacks Saskia’s discovery of her husband’s secret life and her fight to bring him to justice. Along the way, we expose a crime that is just coming to light. This is also a story about the myth of the “perfect victim:” who gets believed, who gets doubted, and why. We follow Saskia as she works to reclaim her body, her voice, and her life. If you would like to reach out to the Betrayal Team, email us at betrayalpod@gmail.com. Follow us on Instagram @betrayalpod and @glasspodcasts. Please join our Substack for additional exclusive content, curated book recommendations, and community discussions. Sign up FREE by clicking this link Beyond Betrayal Substack. Join our community dedicated to truth, resilience, and healing. Your voice matters! Be a part of our Betrayal journey on Substack.