January 13, 2026 • 53 mins
The NFL postseason continue after an incredible Wild Card Weekend and The Favorites is back for an early look at the Divisional Round! Action Network hosts Brandon Kravitz, Kendra Middleton and Stuckey discuss a sad ending to the season for Kendra's Jacksonville Jaguars after drawing Josh Allen and the Bills and the same story for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Plus, the crew each plants their flag early on a game they like this weekend and dives into some nuggets from the weekly NFL Primer, courtesy of Action Director of Research Evan Abrams, delivering everything needed to start betting the NFL each week. Jump in and enjoy!
Check out the Action Network App and sign up for Action Pro for instant notifications from our top experts. Get $20 off with promo code POD20.
Click here to instantly tail some of the bets from today's episode with quick slips!
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome to the Favorite's presented by Draft Kings. The crown
is yours. We are an Action Network podcast. I'm branding
Kravitz back at it on this wonderful and profitable Tuesday morning.
The first Lady of the pod Kendra back from Duval County,
the prime Minister of DJEN Nation Stucky. On today's podcast,
(00:31):
we have got a load to get to for the
divisional round in the NFL postseason Plant the Flag Games.
Only eight teams left after complete madness ensued in round one. Kendra,
she'll share her deepest thoughts and I hope we get
a detail of how Jacksonville was outside of Josh Allen
(00:54):
running and rumbling and bumbling his way down the field.
We'll get the main event as well, Evans Tuesday. The
primer is available right now as we speak over on
actionnetwork dot Com. So, Kendra, how good was this weekend
overall as a football fan? And then I guess how
bad was it for you as a Jags fan, a
(01:14):
Jags backer and somebody who is in the building for
an iconic Josh Allen performance.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
The first of.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
All, I'd say thank you to Jimmy John's for sending
me some hangover patches.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
You guys are the only reason that I survived that day.
I'm convinced.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
My friends were like, it's technically vacation, like you should
be drinking because you guys know I only drink on vacation, and.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
I was like, okay, fine.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
So I had a lot of champagne before the game,
and thank God that I did because I needed it.
It was so fun, it was so electric, it was
so perfect. It was everything that I wanted it to be.
The weather was great, and then the.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Fourth quarter just sucked. I have to blame Liam Cohen
the most. Love him.
Speaker 3 (01:59):
He's perfect. Picked shout out Lynn Jones. She was right
for everything she said, but it was a bad day
for him. But he's a rookie head coach, so you
know that he's going to have those We got to
the playoffs. We didn't expect to be there, and I
honestly think number two in line for blame is probably
Trevor and then three the.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Secondary those are those are my thoughts.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
I don't know why they didn't run the ball and
not stop running the ball. And then also the kind
of like crazy part about it is the Bills were
so adamant about banning the Toush push, and at the
end of the day they ran the Toush push to
solidify the game, and the offensive line basically carried Josh
Allen on the Toush push and it sucked.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
It's so sucked.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
And then we sat in the parking lot and drank
for like two hours while traffic died down. And then
I went and had a Singer mountain melt. If anybody
knows what that is, oh my god, yeah, I went
and got a Zinger Mountain melt and a Captain Jack's
and it was perfect.
Speaker 1 (02:58):
For those that don't know what a Zinger mountain melt is,
it is a skillet of French fries, a ton of them,
coated in cheese, sour cream, bacon.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Chick get your chicken tenders on top of it, rolled
in whatever like wing sauce you like.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
So I got Buffalo and.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
Then a Captain Jack's is like a seven layer hot
fudge chocolate ice cream cake.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
And me and like eight people set.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
And watched the night game and cried over a Zinger
mountain melts.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
I didn't go to waffle house as well, so I
guess it wasn't all the loss.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
Well, I was mocked openly for backing the Bills because
you can't just back them because of Josh Allen. And
then Josh Allen took over the football game because that's
what great players do. So uh, it was it was
a It was a great weekend for me. I'm upset
to hear that you're that your day was ruined, But
I'd be disingenuous if I said that I didn't enjoy
(03:52):
it a little bit.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
I wasn't mad at you because you chose Josh Allen.
I was mad at you because you stabbed our podcast
family in the back.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
No, I was trying to snake a profit out of
the wild card round, which is what every sports better
should do.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
No, I think you just pulled a Kravits and you
tried to piss everyone off, and for once it worked
out for you.
Speaker 4 (04:12):
Well I did. It was a great weekend.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
But I will say something that Stucky and Evan mentioned
on the Sunday recap show that I think is important
to reiterate is process over results, so not just in
the betting sense, like for the forty nine ers, another
bet that I cashed, horrible process. I got horrible closing
line value on that, but the bet won, so I'm
(04:36):
not going to victory lap it.
Speaker 4 (04:37):
You're just happy when things go.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
You had a great weekend, you should take a victory lap.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
But I had a great weekend in terms of the
wins and the losses. I think some of the process
was a little broken, but I'll take I'll take the dubs.
This was the most profitable weekend I've had the entire season,
so it was. It definitely worked out well the game itself,
talking Jags Bills, the move to go run into the
(05:03):
end zone on the QB sneak when Jacksonville is gonna
let it happen.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
That was a broken process from Sean McDermott. Stucky. I
cannot believe still.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
That they chose to do that at the end of
that game, and that Cam. I mean, all they had
to do is get Cam little to the fifty and
then they would have paid for it. I worry about
Sean McDermott costing this team a game as they get
deeper into the postseason.
Speaker 5 (05:33):
Yeah, that was you had your best week and I
had my worst weekend of the year.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
I had my worst weekend as well.
Speaker 5 (05:39):
I had really good numbers, Like one of my favorite
bets of the year was JAG's first half, which he
got it even money and it closed I don't know,
minus one forty five. The Jacks closed minus two and
a half point favorites at some shops. So yeah, it
was just on the margins are so thin in the
NFL playoffs. I also love the Packers. Just tons of miskicks.
I mean, can literally miss a kick at the end
(06:01):
of the first half. But really that game was decided.
I mean, if you look at the box squad, the
Jags averaged six point six yards per play to the
Bills five and a half. They outgained them. There was
two huge plays in that game. One was the missed
field goal at the end of the first half and
then the Trevor Lawrence his shin going down. I mean
that probably took seven points off the board in the
(06:24):
first half by you know, half of a yard. Well,
nothing the Bills really did. I mean, that was just
lack of awareness by Lawrence. And I thought Parker Washington
being out for most of the first half was absolutely killer.
He saw his impact in the second half where he
went off and the Bills just couldn't cover him. He
was such a difference though. Yeah, but He's still a
huge second half.
Speaker 3 (06:44):
Two of them was averaging like more than ten yards
on like the few carry I think he had like
five touches and like eighty yards and didn't play a
snap the second half, Like that's on Gohen.
Speaker 5 (06:54):
Yeah, they probably should have run it more, but they
were moving the ball the Lawrence pick at the end.
But yeah, to that the process, I mean, that was
just a terrible play. You have to just go down
the reason that you know, there's a couple of reasons
how you know it was a bad play. Besides, you know,
just logic one, the Jags wanted them to score, so
(07:16):
they literally just backed off two. The live money line
odds for the Jags improved after the Bills scored on
that first on the first down play. But just think
about this from a logic standpoint. There's a minute five
to go and the Jags have no timeouts and it's
(07:40):
first and goal with the one. If you go down
at the ones, you just snap it. You could dive forward,
you could do a quick knee. You run forty seconds
off the clock, leaving the Jags with only twenty twenty
five seconds when they get the ball back instead, and
then you have by the way, people are like, oh, well,
you know you have to take the points when you
get them. Josh Allen and the Tush push are automatic,
(08:03):
and you'd have three downs to do it. I mean,
the chances of that are what ninety nine percent that
they would score, and then you leave the Jags almost time.
Speaker 6 (08:12):
Compare that, Compare the.
Speaker 5 (08:14):
Chances of something going wrong a fumbled snap which could
happen on first down too, to the Jags getting the
ball with a minute five compared to twenty seconds and
just getting to midfield.
Speaker 6 (08:25):
You know, you might just need.
Speaker 5 (08:27):
There's some chances where you would only need one first
down to get into field goal range. So yeah, I
just because Lawrence threw a pick does not mean that
the process was right there. McDermott has messed up some
endgame things in the past. We've seen the Chiefs. The
Chiefs game, there were a couple of decisions there when
(08:48):
there was only thirteen seconds left that led to them
losing an overtime.
Speaker 6 (08:53):
So yeah, I did think that.
Speaker 5 (08:55):
That was a very very brained play that ended up
working out for them. But ultimately it was, you know,
sort of a coin flip game that the Bills made
more high leverage plays like there in the first half,
their offense had one good drive, you know, they got
the bad Lawrence pick and then the bad that led
(09:16):
to a field goal, the bad Lawrence pick at the
end which killed the Jags chances of tying it, and
that was ultimately the difference. And Josh Allen was incredible.
Uh some of the throws that he made, the plays
that he made down the stretch were were just awesome.
So uh yeah, hat tip to the Bills for getting
it done on the road. It's really a shame that
(09:37):
the Jags won. It's really shame that both those teams
had to play each other in the first.
Speaker 4 (09:43):
Round big time.
Speaker 5 (09:45):
Like, the Jags won the division and.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Got screwed, and.
Speaker 4 (09:52):
It was the worst possible draw for them. Yeah, absolute worse.
Speaker 5 (09:55):
It was the worst possible draw of any team in
the a f C for winning the division. And then
you know, the Texans finish and second and get to
play the Steelers who get blown out again in the playoffs.
Speaker 6 (10:08):
Same old song with them.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
Let's go to Monday Night Football our main dish for
today's episode, The Texans dismantle the Steelers. Nicocollins ends up
in concussion Protocol I think he's the only player by
Mike count that entered concussion protocol and then stayed there.
Everybody else it was like a rumor as to whether
or not they actually were administered to any sort of test.
(10:36):
But it was a close game at the half seven
to six Houston, and then it was all Houston from there.
Twenty three point fourth quarter almost went over the total
despite the Steelers only kicking two field goals and scoring
zero touchdowns. Dome team outdoors. Houston's been a great road
team this year. They handled the conditions very well. They're
(10:56):
gonna have to do it again in the divisional round.
Speaker 4 (10:59):
Stuck here.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
Biggest takeaway from the game last night with the Texans
dusting the corpse of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Speaker 5 (11:08):
Yeah, I mean the Steelers got the breaks that they
needed early, like with the turnovers, the fumbles. They were
plus three and turnover margin at one point before the
Texans added on a couple of defensive scores late. But
their offense just couldn't do anything. That Texans defense it's
there's no bells and whistles, it's just line up. They're
not going to disguise anything, and their edge rush is
(11:29):
elite their corners are elite, and the pressure just got
to Rogers and they weren't able to move the ball consistently.
I thought Straub was very shaky, uh, you know, especially
with all the fumbles they had. They had snap issues,
but they did enough. Christian Kirk was amazing in that game,
(11:51):
and the story of the game was the the Texans
defense just dominating that game. And it's just the same
old with the Steelers. I mean, if you're a Steelers fan,
you have to be exhausted with this. It's just like
win nine or ten games, get into the playoffs, get
blown out. I think it's the fifth straight time they've
lost by double digits in the playoffs that they've lost
(12:12):
having i think seven straight now playoff games.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
And as it turns out, that would be a stronger
trend than the one that everyone was pointing to. While
they haven't lost on Monday night football and however long,
who the fuck cares what day they're playing on, Like
that's any relevance. Not winning in the playoffs, Now, that's
a trend. That's a trend that matters playing on Monday
and playing well when this isn't even a traditional Monday
(12:37):
night football game.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
They're just going to change it to whatever the stat
would be in the regular season next time they're on
Monday Night Football.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
That's a.
Speaker 6 (12:46):
Seven against the spreading straight up.
Speaker 5 (12:47):
I think seven straight losses is the most any coach
ties Marvin Lewis, So, like, what is the future of
the Steelers? Like they it's they're just stuck in limbo
like that. They haven't and none of these teams that
have made the playoffs over the past ten years have
had a shot of winning the Super Bowl. They haven't
found their franchise quarterback, and but they just keep winning
nine ten games, And what is the future of Tomlin?
Speaker 6 (13:11):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (13:12):
But if you're a Steelers fan, it's just like it's
the same story over and over again, and because of
where you finish, you end up not being able to
get a high draft pic and then you just sort
of like, let's just run it back. And you know,
they paid Watt and then they got to find an
aging veteran quarterback and they just don't have that ceiling.
So I don't know, if I was a Steelers fan,
(13:33):
i'd want to just blow it up start anew But
I mean, there is some value in just being in
the running every year like as a fan, just you know,
instead of going through a couple of years where.
Speaker 4 (13:46):
Yeah, it's better than being awful.
Speaker 5 (13:48):
But it's it's it just gotta feel dejav like deja
vous for the Steelers, for Steelers fans year and a.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
Year out, I will say, it does feel like a
little bit of I hate anybody get hurt specifically like
any kind of TBI, but it does feel like a
universal equalizer that Nico's in concussion protocol and so is
Christian Gonzalez.
Speaker 5 (14:09):
Yeah, that's a massive story because the Patriots don't have
depth at corner, Like they have a couple of guys
including Alex Austin that are on IR.
Speaker 6 (14:24):
And yeah, and then Nico Collins going up.
Speaker 5 (14:28):
So say it's no Gonzalez and you have Nico Collins
out there, that could be a huge advantage for the Texans.
If it's if it's Christian Gonzalez out there, no Nico Collins, right,
then that's even more of an advantage for the Patriots defense.
So which like it looked like Collins Collins number one
has one fewer day, right, shorter short week.
Speaker 6 (14:49):
Playing on Monday night, and his look bad. Now it's
the playoffs.
Speaker 5 (14:54):
No one will admit that, No teams will admit this,
but concussion protocol seems to be a little less. Yeah so,
but short week for Nico after how that looked that
that was bad. So, But that's that's a huge storyline
to watch in this game, is you know, Nico Collins
(15:15):
and Christian Gonzalez, to do one of them play?
Speaker 6 (15:17):
Do both of them miss? Do both of them play?
Speaker 5 (15:20):
So that's that's something that I'll be monitoring closely throughout
the week. But yeah, the Patriots defense I thought played well,
played okay, but I thought, I mean, I was dead
wrong in this game. I thought Justin Herbert was horrific.
I mean, you guys are right, Cloff Herbert, there might
be something there.
Speaker 6 (15:39):
I mean it was.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
He's now own three owned three in the playoffs, two touchdowns,
seven turnovers during his time, there.
Speaker 5 (15:47):
Were throws to be made, and I mean he had
time to throw in the first half. The Patriots don't
have some elite pass rush, and in the second half,
once they got a big lead, they just started blitzing
and then there was and then it just snowballed from there.
But in the first half, there was he had clean
pockets at times, and there were open receivers down the field.
There was a couple touchdowns that he had that he
(16:07):
just didn't throw, and he looked completely frout. He looked
like a rookie quarterback. It was shocking how bad he was.
Speaker 6 (16:16):
I believe.
Speaker 5 (16:17):
Don't quote me on this, but I believe he had
a first percentile PFF grade. It was the second lowest
single game playoff PFF grade of any quarterback over the
past twenty years.
Speaker 4 (16:30):
Only the bottom.
Speaker 6 (16:33):
Joe Webb was the worst.
Speaker 5 (16:35):
But it was like he was shockingly bad and he
wouldn't He just wasn't making throws that were to be
had down the field. Now, the Chargers, I think Robert
Splaine said this that some of the Chargers came up
to him after the game and they were like, we
have no idea. We had no idea what types of
coverages you guys were in. Now, the Patriots, the Skies
(16:56):
their coverage as well. They mix it up, but there
were throwsy hat and Herbert just looked like he looked
completely gun shy in the pocket. It was it was
shocking to watch. So did you guys hear that was troubling?
Speaker 3 (17:11):
Did you guys hear about all the like them bragging
about all of the weather gear that they had gotten.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
No, no, oh my god.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
This was like a huge news piece up here, probably
obviously because the game was here, but about how they
had bought all of this like tech year.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
They flew in all this different like warm weather stuff.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
We were gonna be wearing this and this kind of
warmer and this and that, and everyone was just like okay.
Speaker 4 (17:37):
And that Derwin James was it wasn't it like thirty degrees?
Speaker 3 (17:40):
Well, it was definitely warmer up here than usual this weekend.
Speaker 4 (17:44):
Yeah, that's that's odd to you know.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
We're gonna go We're gonna go buy some Batman body
tech so that we can stay warm and thirty degree weather.
Let's talk some Let's talk some opening lines for the
divisional round. We've got our plant the Flag games at
the end of the pod Evans Tuesday Prime as well,
help us get ready for the weekend. Our Thursday episode
is where we officially set them in stone. The Rams
(18:08):
opened as three and a half point favorites at Chicago.
We've seen that line depending on where you look, bounce
to four at some places.
Speaker 4 (18:15):
It's three and a half At Draft King.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
Still, the Seahawks opened as seven point favorites at home
against the forty nine Ers, the third meeting between these
two teams. They are now seven and a half point favorites.
The Patriots opened US two and a half point favorites
against the Texans. That line is up to a soft
three minus one oh five on DK.
Speaker 4 (18:35):
And then this is where we've seen the most movement.
Speaker 1 (18:37):
The Broncos plus one and a half point underdogs against
the Buffalo Bills. The Broncos, of course off the buy
they're at home, Allen's all beat up. Well, now the
Broncos are favored by a point and a half. It's
at even money at plus one hundred. But this one's
kind of dancing as it stands right now between the two.
(18:59):
So I'm gonna ask you guys this question this way,
rather than us diving into what side we're on with
these games immediately, because we'll get to that point if
I just asked you among the four games this weekend,
trying to answer this without giving away your side on
the game, which is the most fascinating evaluation, Kendra, We'll
(19:22):
start with you on this of these four games, which
one do you find yourself most likely to get in
the weeds on I'll put it that way.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
Probably the Bears in the Rams. I feel like this
one feels when you say in the weeds, you mean
like about the conversation, Like.
Speaker 1 (19:42):
I'm just gonna need, Like I'm just gonna need as
much detail as possible before I can make anything that
resembles a decision on whichever game it is.
Speaker 3 (19:52):
Oh, well, then it's got to be the Patriots and
the Texans because of the concussion protocol for Nico Collins
and Christian Zalez, like their number one receiver and their
number one corner.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
Like, it's definitely going to be that game. I'm gonna
need injury.
Speaker 3 (20:04):
Reports, probably gonna wait and figure out what the weather is.
The Seahawks and the forty nine Ers, we know what
to anticipate there. Everybody's going to be, you know, injured
for the forty nine ers, and what version of Sam
Darnold are we going to get? Those are the two
headlines the Bills headlined Josh Allen, the Texans and the Patriots.
I think lots of injuries, lots of question marks of
who's going to play.
Speaker 2 (20:23):
And then the Rams and the Bears.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
How I think the conversation of that is how hurd
is Matt Stafford's hand?
Speaker 4 (20:28):
The end stuck you? What about you?
Speaker 6 (20:31):
Yeah, Stafford's finger. I don't know.
Speaker 5 (20:32):
I say it's gonna be okay, But then there's all
the weather looks like it's gonna be okay across the
world except in Chicago. It's just going to be really,
really really cold. Stafford historically is not played well in
the cold. You're going to see that stat a lot.
I think he's like one in nine.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
High forty one. This is twenty nine here.
Speaker 1 (20:47):
Yeah, this is supposed to be the coldest game in
his career. Also for a guy that doesn't perform well
in cold weather.
Speaker 5 (20:53):
But last year in the snow in Philly, he played
really well for what it's worth. So you always have
to worry about sample sizes. It went with like his finger,
how does that hould up? I would say as far
as like what did what? I want to dive into
the most, it's probably Patriots Texans. I mean the Patriots
(21:18):
just tough to price because of their schedule, right, and
then you played the Chargers. They finally faced a good
defense and their offense didn't look great. I mean the
Chargers defense did everything it could. They'll keep them in
that game. I also thought Harball was really bad. Like
you get two trips inside the two and you come
away with three points, you go for it. You go
for it the first time, to kick a field goal
the second time, but like how and then Herbert was
(21:40):
just so bad and like there were open receivers. And
then obviously you had that Chargers offensive line, but the
Texans offensive line isn't great either.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
And Stroud was bad that I'm worried he stirred the
ball over three times.
Speaker 4 (21:52):
He got away with it.
Speaker 1 (21:52):
You're not gonna get away with that against New England
if that were Yeah, you can.
Speaker 5 (21:55):
Get away with all those fumbles against the Steelers, but yeah,
and then what will this Patriots offense look against the
Texans defense? Like this Texans defense is good enough to
carry them to a super Bowl, but the offense can't
turn the ball over.
Speaker 6 (22:11):
And you can't.
Speaker 5 (22:13):
You can't go on the road and fumble it three
or four times and have miss snaps when you're not playing.
You know, a statue s Aaron Rodgers and that Steelers offense,
the Bills Broncos. It seems pretty straightforward in that the
Broncos should be able to run the ball here, which
(22:34):
is gonna help bo Knicks can use his legs. The
Bills have struggled against mobile quarterbacks, and then like they're
gonna play a lot of man, which the Bills have
struggled with because the receivers can't really get separation, and
the Bills that wide receiver room, I mean, it just
gets more decimated with each passing game, so it's hard
(22:54):
to see the Bills getting open much. The Broncos are
probably gonna load the box and you know, trust their
corners on the outside, so that I think that that
just comes down to, like what can how heroic can
Josh Allen be? Because the Jaguars secondary is much worse
than the Broncos secondary.
Speaker 6 (23:13):
They also play a lot more zone, which the Bills.
Speaker 2 (23:15):
I never want to see Greg Newsome again.
Speaker 5 (23:17):
They've had more success against. And then on the other side,
it's just like the Bill's defense is not great. But
what which version of bo Knicks do you get? I
mean bow Knicks. He can be horrific at times, missing
open receivers.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
Peyton Manning or brockwall Osweiler in that jersey, which one.
Speaker 4 (23:38):
Yeah, mating or broken Peyton Manning.
Speaker 5 (23:41):
But I do think that the Bills, I mean, the
Broncos have more consistent, easier paths to offense with their
running game and you know Bo Nicks's legs and than
the Bills, who I don't. I don't know if they're
receivers are going to be able to get open here,
(24:02):
and that's gonna make it tough. But the wild guard
is that you have Josh Allen versus Bonis and sometimes,
like we can break down these games a lot, and
but like, is Josh Allen in these AFC playoffs? Just
the Mahomes of years pass?
Speaker 1 (24:20):
Right?
Speaker 5 (24:20):
Like you could like when Mahomes would play the Bills
or the Ravens and they would be underdogs, and but
you could just say, but we have Patrick Mahomes, which
might it might be good enough. So we'll see how
how Buffalo handles that Denver defense. But yeah, I'm looking
forward to to all four games. The the Rams Bears,
(24:46):
like the every every Bears game is the same, like
it's just like a movie.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
Yeah, I'm having a hard time with that one because
I can you can kind of sense where the sharp
money probably is and maybe that tilts some of your
opinions based on the way that you want to bet
this league. The Rams are going to be the sharp side,
but the Bears all year have been the horseshoe, stuck
(25:14):
in the ass team of the year, even more so
than Denver, And both of those teams have mastered the
art of being down in the fourth quarter and figuring
out a way to win anyway. Chicago's just done it
in more miraculous fashion. And of all the crowds that
we saw this past weekend, and I thought Jacksonville's was tremendous, Kendrick,
you can speak to that better than I can, because.
Speaker 4 (25:36):
I've been at all there.
Speaker 3 (25:37):
I've been at every postseason game that they've had except
for the twenty seventeen AFC Championship game.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
But you also, like, I think people really showed out because.
Speaker 3 (25:47):
That's the last time fans are going to be in
that stadium like that because they're renovating it, so next
year a lot of it's going to be blocked off,
and in the following.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
Year they're in Orlando. So the city really definitely showed out.
Speaker 1 (25:57):
But being able to hold being able to hold off
Buffalo in the state of Florida is very difficult because
the Snowbirds will show up.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
Because it's waiting room.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
But my point is that Chicago's I thought Chicago's crowd
was the best of the weekend.
Speaker 4 (26:13):
They made a very real difference in the second game.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
It really did.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
Of that game, Gifford, I have videos of how loud
it was, if you would like to include one in this,
But I'm very drunk and booing, so.
Speaker 4 (26:25):
I'm assuming that will be hard.
Speaker 5 (26:27):
Yes, So yeah, I mean the Bear it's incredible that
the wins that they've had, I mean they've now have
seven wins. Been troun with them two minutes ago, and
that game, I mean, he need Brandon McManus to miss
three kicks and then you need a fourth and eight
where if they don't call the false start, the snap
goes over the head and the game is over. But
(26:48):
a fourth and eight, it was a great throw by Caleb,
but that game, you're down eleven if you don't get
that fourth and eight with six minutes to go, and
the game is over like that. It's incredible the things.
And then the Packers at the end, they have no
offensive lineman left, no timeouts, they get an injury or runoff,
they get down on the twenty and then time runs
(27:09):
out on them. But if McManus doesn't miss all those kicks,
they could have kicked a field goal to tie it
to win it. I mean, he probably would have missed
another one. It was just a horrific game. Maybe it
was poetic justice for the Bears. The last home game
prior to that was the double doink and now you
get the triple miss from McManus. But yeah, it's just like,
(27:33):
can the Bears pull another one out of their ass?
I mean, they this easily could have been a seven
or eight win team during the regular season, but they
seem to have some magic going.
Speaker 1 (27:44):
Yeah, and they have a quarterback that can do miraculous
things at the end of games. They've got a good
head coach, and the turnover differential has worked in their
favor all year.
Speaker 4 (27:54):
All those things cater to being able.
Speaker 1 (27:57):
To put together unlikely wins at the end of games,
and so I don't think it's a total accident. One
thing that I think is really cool about this upcoming
weekend is that we only have one rematch. The only
one is the forty nine ers in the Seahawks. All
the other games the other three are unique matchups. Trivia
(28:18):
question for you guys, first one to buzz in to
get the right answer is the winner. Here you win
nothing of actual substance other than perhaps some self pride.
The forty nine ers in the Seahawks met in week one,
and in week eighteen. They now meet in the playoffs.
Believe Evan can chime in on this. I believe the
he mentions in the primer first time in NFL history
(28:39):
Week one, last week of the season, and in the postseason.
Does anybody remember the first game was in Seattle? What
the point spread was in that game?
Speaker 5 (28:50):
Say this again the fort Evan playoffs. You just want
to know that that spread from.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
I was asking the trivia question was I was just
sort of layering some extra context. But so, this is
the first time in NFL history that two teams will
face off after meeting each other in the first week
of the regular season and the last week of the
regular season. But the trivia question is much more simplistic
than that. What was the point spread in Week one
when these two teams met in Seattle.
Speaker 3 (29:17):
I'm gonna guess a point and a half in favor
of I'm gonna go La or I mean San Francisco,
it was.
Speaker 5 (29:24):
Yeah, I think San fran was maybe a one point favorite.
I mean coming into the year, there were there were questions, remember,
like so the forty nine ers people were high on,
Remember they were healthy then, and then the Seahawks. People
were low on the Seahawks coming into the year with
(29:46):
Sam Darnold and that offensive line, and so there were
major questions about the Seahawks. So yeah, I think the
forty nine Ers were tiny.
Speaker 4 (29:56):
Favorites, two and a half point favorites on the road.
Speaker 1 (30:00):
My how times have changed, and now they are seven
and a half point underdogs. And I'm not saying that
that's an overcorrection obviously, a big part of that is
how good Seattle's been and how decimated the forty nine
ers are in terms of their injuries. We're about to
dive into our plant the Flag games, but first a
word from our very own Kendra Middleton.
Speaker 3 (30:20):
The Favorites podcast is sponsored by DraftKings sportsbook and in
partnership with DraftKings, our listeners get a great offer right now.
New customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins. Love
the thrill of live betting. DraftKings has got you covered.
Bet live on Star player props and in progress games
right as they happen. To get started, use promo code
(30:42):
favorites when signing up with DraftKings. That's called favorites when
signing up with DraftKings for three hundred dollars back in
bonus bets. If you are bet wins, the crown is yours?
Speaker 4 (30:51):
All right, Kendra?
Speaker 1 (30:52):
Before we get to it official picks to start the week?
What is on your mind?
Speaker 5 (30:57):
What selling you about?
Speaker 6 (31:01):
Could you've been?
Speaker 2 (31:07):
Okay?
Speaker 3 (31:07):
So, before I describe this, if I brought up electromagnetism
in sports, would either of you know what I was
talking about?
Speaker 2 (31:13):
Have you seen this news?
Speaker 4 (31:15):
No?
Speaker 2 (31:16):
Stuck?
Speaker 4 (31:17):
They have to do with magnets.
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Kind of stuck. Do you know what I'm talking about?
Speaker 5 (31:20):
If I say this, maybe is it the forty is
it the forty nine ers?
Speaker 4 (31:25):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (31:25):
Okay, cravits so low frequency electromagnetic fields can degrade collagen,
weak in tendons and cause soft tissue damage at levels
regulators call safe. We have a real fast study proving this,
and an NFL team whose practice facility sits next to
a match. A massive electrical substrain, and the forty nine
(31:46):
Ers have the most injured roster in the NFL this season.
Speaker 4 (31:51):
Thoughts, Yeah, makes sense.
Speaker 2 (31:55):
Is artans oil hat on as a podcast? Is marsic question?
Speaker 1 (31:58):
I am not a u I am not a professional scientist,
but it sounds like it makes sense. You know, you've
got people that live near polluted water that end up
with a higher rate of frequency in terms of cancer
and things of that nature.
Speaker 4 (32:15):
So yeah, it makes sense. I think that it's.
Speaker 1 (32:18):
Unfortunate for San Francisco that they've been put in this
health bind, but I buy it.
Speaker 5 (32:25):
I have no idea, but I do think that there
is something like if you go back the last ten years,
the forty nine ers have been one of the unluckiest
teams in terms of injuries, Like every year they had
like one clean year when they went to the zeer Wold,
but like average games lost to injury, they're always bottom
one or two. So I don't know if it's some
(32:46):
other outside force or like their training staff, if they're
just missing something. But there's been too many years where
there's it's just that it feels like it just can't be.
Speaker 3 (33:00):
Yeah, do we think it's like a future lawsuit situation, like,
do you think that you could, like, could you sue?
Speaker 2 (33:05):
I don't know, Yeah, I mean.
Speaker 1 (33:08):
You can sue for anything. What's lot is that CMC
is healthy of all of all the forty nine ers
to not experience an injury this year. This year, Christian
McCaffery one of the most often injured players in the NFL,
and he's been clean bill of health all year.
Speaker 4 (33:24):
I do think part of it, too, outside of the.
Speaker 1 (33:26):
Electro magneticism, if I'm saying that right, is that this
this has to be one of the oldest teams in
the NFL.
Speaker 4 (33:33):
Fred Warner got hurt. He's old. George Kittle got hurt,
he's old. There's Trent Williams, he's old.
Speaker 1 (33:41):
I think that probably plays as much a factor as
some factory plant that's next to their practice facility.
Speaker 2 (33:49):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (33:50):
I think I think my tenfoil hots on I'm fully woke.
Speaker 1 (33:53):
Okay, Is there is there any other context you would
like to add in terms of your your opinion on
the matter before we hand out.
Speaker 3 (34:01):
Some picks, not particularly on the injuries, but I would
like to say justice for my man Robert Sala.
Speaker 2 (34:08):
The Jets were not his fault. He rules the end.
Speaker 4 (34:12):
Yes he does. Yes, that was.
Speaker 2 (34:14):
Fuck the New York Jets Boom Boom.
Speaker 1 (34:16):
Boom coaching coaching masterpiece by Shanahan. And I'll give most
of the credit to Sala even though he's going up
against an offense. I'm pretty sure they draw their plays
on with crayon. In terms of what they're doing in Philadelphia.
Speaker 5 (34:33):
Seven drives for the Eagles, a twenty five percent dropback
success rate against that defense. They run forty eight hitches
on thirty seven dropbacks. Forty eight hitches. It's over one
hitch per play. That's their They broke their own record
early this season. I mean, I don't know. They kept
running four verts at the end against quarters coverage, which
is I mean, I don't know what the Eagles were doing.
(34:56):
Ye have more injuries. Jayer Brown got hurt for the Niners.
Kittle obviously, it does it. Fred Warner was saying, like
a month ago, he's targeting being back to the Division round.
Doesn't look like he will be back. We'll see on
some some of the other linebackers, and Ricky Pearsall we'll
see on him as well.
Speaker 6 (35:15):
Uh said.
Speaker 5 (35:15):
The I mean the Niners injury report always worth monitoring,
but it's you have to give creditasal for what he did.
I mean, he was down fifth, sixth, and seventh string
linebackers and to get the job done in the road
was definitely impressive, even though a lot of the blame also.
Speaker 6 (35:33):
Has to go to the Eagles for just the play
calling and.
Speaker 5 (35:37):
They're they're they're just all year. It's like, it's amazing.
I've never seen an offense just going to the tank
for two quarters at a time almost every game. I mean,
it's was stunning, no rhythm, no flow, no sense of urgency,
and it was a fitting end of their season. But
(35:59):
I don't know if that forty nine ers defense will
have the same type of results against.
Speaker 1 (36:04):
Seattle, especially a team that will actually commit to the
run and the forty nine Ers cannot stop it. I
cannot find enough ways to throw Seattle money line into
parlays this weekend. I'm not even I just I want
nothing to do with the number. I just know I
feel the most confident opinion I have headed into this weekend,
(36:28):
which is not a hot take for a team favored
by a touchdown and a hook, is that Seattle was
beating San Francisco this it ends now, and I've had
a pretty good beat on the forty nine ers. This
is it, that was it. That was the perfect matchup
for them going up against that vanilla offense. That team's
broken in Philly after they just don't have the personalities
(36:49):
to back up a Super Bowl championship.
Speaker 4 (36:51):
But anyway, let's yeah.
Speaker 5 (36:52):
I mean the offense, like the offense can do anything
against Seattle the last time they played.
Speaker 6 (36:57):
It's going to take a you know, one.
Speaker 5 (36:59):
Of the the most one of the beautiful things about
the playoffs and then one of the you know, the
things that makes it very difficult to handicap is number one.
The lines are very efficient this time of the year.
But you could dive into like tendency and the NFL
you're always going to be changing things from a week
to week basis, but especially in the playoffs like this
is when you change tendencies a ton and in the
(37:23):
highest leverage games. And the forty nine ers did just
play Seattle and couldn't do anything offensively. It's going to
take a Shanahan masterclass for them, I think, to be
able to put up enough points here. The way that
you beat Donald too is that you got to get
pressure on him, and like that's the forty nine ers
(37:47):
are incapable of generating pressure. So like, this isn't the
type of game where I think that Donald is going
to struggle. And I mean, yes, that last game that
they played looks relatively was what was it, thirteen to three,
(38:08):
so it looks relatively close, But the Seahawks had twenty
three first downs of the Niners nine. The total yarders
is three sixty one to one seventy three. I mean
that game was not as close as the final score indicated.
I mean, you have the the Seahawks went sixty six
yard drive, turned it over on downs, fifty five yard drive,
(38:29):
missed a fueld goal, They settled for a couple other
field goals after long drives. They missed a fuel goal
after a ninety yard drive. Now, the forty nine Ers
did throw a pick inside the five late that bounced
off McCaffrey's hands, but if you watch that game, it
was the Seahawks were completely dominant on a play by
play basis. So I'm it's gonna have to be a
(38:51):
Shanahan masterclass, and he's gonna have to come up with
some You're gonna have to call up some more like
reverse passes and uh, some creative ways to get guys
open and you with the pressure that Seattle can generate
without blitzing, I.
Speaker 1 (39:03):
Might commission that we throw the Seahawks money line in
with whatever we come up with on Thursday. Make it
a four leg Let's see if we can go that,
or just eliminate someone's and throw that in there. Let's
get throw our plant the flag games presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 4 (39:16):
The crown is yours.
Speaker 7 (39:19):
Might flag and it shut up.
Speaker 5 (39:20):
I'm trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 1 (39:22):
Okay, you're really planting your flag in that thick Kendra,
who you got?
Speaker 3 (39:26):
I came back from the airport literally fifteen minutes before
our show. I went one in three last weekend. It
was my worst weekend of the entire year. And my
uber driver was a nice Lebanese man and he loved
sports gambling, and he told me that he was all
over the Patriots this week. He said that they were
gonna kick ass, not even a Patriots fan, and I
(39:48):
have to trust him. So since I couldn't hit a bet,
I'm gonna go with my uber driver's pick of the
Patriots money line the end. I'm if I.
Speaker 2 (39:59):
Don't hit this, then I don't.
Speaker 3 (40:01):
It's like a reverse curse, like they're in bed jail
for me, but now they're not. I have bet against
them and they've won all year, and now that I'm
on them, are they gonna lose?
Speaker 2 (40:10):
But I'm gonna go with my nice uber driver.
Speaker 1 (40:14):
What was what was his name? Remember John Sadan? So
it's not really your play. So like there, they could
still be in jail for you. You're just tailing.
Speaker 3 (40:24):
Sadan in Sadan, I trust, I have nowhere else to go,
nothing else to do.
Speaker 2 (40:29):
Shout out Sadan, I'm tailing.
Speaker 4 (40:33):
Black planted Stucky who you got.
Speaker 5 (40:36):
Yeah, I haven't bet anything yet still, I mean we're
really at the dive in this time of the year
to these games. So that's what I'll be spend in
the next couple of days doing at over fifty one.
I thought about the Bears rams under it's not fifty
and a half. I mean that's a in freezing cold temperatures.
That's a very high number. Now it's hard, just like
(40:57):
which defense is getting stops. I mean the Rams secondary
is over the past month and a half has been torched.
I mean all of their games have been absolute shootouts,
but I mean the outdoor totals in the playoffs a
forty seven or above, which is a key number, fifty
two to twenty seven and two, it's sixty six percent.
I think they're sixty seven percent at fifty one or above.
(41:21):
So I thought about that, but.
Speaker 6 (41:24):
I'm going to go. I also thought I might.
Speaker 5 (41:26):
Play the Broncos first half again. I faded the Bills
last week, but I would make that bet again. I mean,
if Washington doesn't get hurt and all Pro misses a
kick and then you got a fourth down stop on
a on a fluke play that took seven off the board,
and you know they still had a chance to to push.
So I might look at the Broncos first half. Although
(41:47):
Sean Payton in the playoffs is just six and twelve
against the spread in the first half, for what it's worth,
but I'm.
Speaker 6 (41:54):
Going to go.
Speaker 5 (41:55):
Linees more efficient this time of the year, which makes teasers,
specifically teasers across three and seven more valuable. So I
think one of the better players on the board teasing
the Seahawks from seven and a half down to one
and a half and then the Texans from two and
a half up to eight and a half that one.
(42:19):
There's still some uncertainty with Nego Collins and Christian Gonzalez.
I actually think Gonzalez would be a bigger loss than Collins. Now,
Collins would give them more upside if Gonzalez doesn't play.
But the Texans did develop some depth at receiver when
Collins was out earlier this year.
Speaker 2 (42:35):
So they have nowhere.
Speaker 5 (42:37):
So yeah, now the emergence of Kirk, but they have
some options. But mainly this is just you're gonna get
me over a touchdown. With a total that's sitting at
forty one, I think it makes some sense and that
Texans defense will keep them in the game. And we
saw that the Patriots offense, which didn't play a defense
(42:57):
with a pulse all year, looked a lot more pedestrian
against the Chargers defense. And the Chargers defense was getting
the charges. Defense isn't known for getting elite pressure. Would
they sacked May like five or six times. They were
getting constant pressure. So I worry about the especially that
the left side of the Patriots offensive line, I mean
(43:18):
Will Campbell was getting abused blegend So going up against
that Texans pass rush, I could see may under constant fire.
Speaker 6 (43:30):
Now the same you.
Speaker 5 (43:31):
You're gonna probably get a heavy blitz package from the
Patriots again.
Speaker 2 (43:35):
Could I think they're getting Tonga back.
Speaker 5 (43:39):
Yeah, I could get Tonga back, but I think it
just makes sense to tease that over seven in a
in a game with a total forty one. So I
we'll go Seahawks Texans teaser. I mean, he's yeh, Seahawks Texans.
Speaker 1 (43:53):
Caesar speaking my language over here. I'm gonna go with
the Bills money line. I don't trust the Broncos. I
think they're one of the most overrated one seeds of
my lifetime. Their defense is great, their offense is average
at best. Denver failed to get to twenty or past
twenty and their final three games their last two games
(44:15):
were against the Chiefs and the Chargers, essentially their backups.
Definitely for the Chargers, the Chiefs were just broken at
the end of the year, still couldn't score. The Jags
held them to twenty and that was on their home field.
The defense is great. One of their big weaknesses is
against slot wide receivers. Well, that's what Khalil Shakira is.
So if you want to go next level, I mean
(44:36):
Josh Allen just against man coverage. If you turn your
back to him and you allow him to take off,
then that's where he's the most dangerous. I fear that
the Broncos will not commit to the run the way
that they absolutely should against Buffalo, the way that Jacksonville
failed miserably, and doing that, they were way too committed
to their game plan and what they've been all year,
(44:58):
which is run to set up the pass. Well, all
they had to do was run against Buffalo. Bagel Touton
was unstoppable in this game. They went away from him.
Made no sense whatsoever. Sixty three percent pass rate and
neutral situations are the Denver Broncos. That's not how you
want to play against the Buffalo Bills. Alan is in
hero ball mode. I think he goes out and gets
(45:19):
a win. Now on the teaser front, I am playing
this from both sides, so I want to be completely
transparent on this.
Speaker 4 (45:26):
I like the Bills on the money line. I also
tease the.
Speaker 1 (45:29):
Broncos when they were one and a half up to
seven and a half and the Seahawks down to one.
So I would love if this was a Bill's win
somewhere between one and seven. That would be ideal profit
for me, but I do like the Bills on the
money line. Anybody want to yell at me about it
this week?
Speaker 2 (45:48):
I can't yell you you you you you can't. I
literally can't.
Speaker 8 (45:53):
No.
Speaker 5 (45:53):
I have no strong opinion on the full game, So
I'm fine with you. Run your take, Josh Allen in
the playoffs of a bonick.
Speaker 6 (46:00):
That's fine.
Speaker 4 (46:01):
So a two recap. I was letting that marinate for
a moment.
Speaker 1 (46:05):
By the way, Kendra, thank you for that Patriots money
line against the Texans teaser. Seahawks down to a point,
Texans up to eight and a half, and I've got
the Bills money line. That all presented by Draft Kings
where the crown is yours.
Speaker 4 (46:22):
Now for the main event.
Speaker 1 (46:23):
No betting week can start without it, especially when you
get to the playoffs. The primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan,
Welcome to the show. How did you do this past weekend?
Speaker 8 (46:36):
I put four picks in the app and went two
and two one loss. That sucked.
Speaker 7 (46:40):
I had Jaden Reid under three and a half receptions.
He got that fourth reception on that final catch. So
but that's what ends up happening. When you end up
taking unders, you get stabbed in the heart. I also
said Parkinson over receiving yards on that last catch. So
you know, give if, take if, what's that we do here?
Speaker 1 (46:57):
So we have a couple of teams that get to
they were able to sit back and watch the wild
Card round just like the rest of us. The Seahawks
and the Broncos off of a bye. How have those
teams performed in recent years?
Speaker 7 (47:12):
You know, kravitz by suck, especially for covering the spread.
I mean, that's what we've seen historically. So just blanketed
since O three home team's division round coming off of bye,
forty three percent ats three and seven ats since twenty
twenty in that Seattle spot, when you're a favorite of
seven plus seventeen and twenty six forty percent, so.
Speaker 8 (47:34):
It's usually pretty difficult.
Speaker 7 (47:35):
But you also aren't usually facing an electrocuted team who's
missing half their roster. So we'll have to see how
that San Francisco walking Dead does in this situation.
Speaker 1 (47:47):
What about Chicago? They came back down twenty one to three,
could have even been more if McManus could make a
kick or two. They're off of one of the most
epic comebacks in playoff history. I would guess that teams
in that situation do not perform well the following week,
would I be correct?
Speaker 8 (48:08):
Yeah, you're right.
Speaker 7 (48:09):
It's also one of the craziest situations we've seen so Chicago.
Being a home underdog in back to back games in
the playoffs is just not something we really see, right, Like,
usually you win the first game and everyone's like, oh wow,
look at this team, and you end up as a favorite.
This would be just the second time a team is
an home underdog in back to back playoff games. The
(48:30):
Eagles did it in seventeen eighteen, and the Bears are
the first team in NFL history and since we've had
wildcards to do it in Wildcard and Divisional.
Speaker 8 (48:38):
So we've never seen a team be home dog in
back to backs.
Speaker 7 (48:42):
Crazy there, and you mentioned it yourself. I'll give you
a few here. So those teams, and you've seen the
stat everywhere. Teams leading a playoff game by fifteen plus
start of the fourth quarter have lost two games before
the Super Bowl. The twenty two forty nine Ers over
the Giants, the seventy two Cowboys of the Niners. They
both lost the following week by a combined score. I'm
(49:02):
gonna do quick math of fifty seven to nine in
their next game, which.
Speaker 8 (49:08):
Is absolutely terrible. I'll go one further.
Speaker 7 (49:11):
Since division re alignment in two thousand and two, teams
that after coming back from ten plus points down in
the playoffs just eight and twenty two in the next
playoff game and five and fifteen in aning round before
the Super Bowl. So yes, very difficult to bounce back.
But Chicago's seeing a little bit of love here. Sixty
five percent of tickets early week lines come down at TAD.
(49:32):
I saw some fours now three and a half, so
we will see that.
Speaker 5 (49:37):
Teams also teams off of a home teams off of
a win, and now right win is a home dog
in the wild card round since two thousand and three,
which is what our database goes back to zero to
twelve straight up. Yeah, against the spread. One of the
(49:57):
covers was the the jag when uh, they're not the Jags.
It was the Texans when the Chiefs took that intentional
safety at the end of the game.
Speaker 4 (50:09):
Do you remember that it wasn't even a real cover.
Speaker 5 (50:11):
Yeah, So teams off of a win as a home
dog the next round historically, No, it's only a twelve
game sample.
Speaker 6 (50:17):
Size, but it has been pretty most of those games
have been blowouts.
Speaker 4 (50:23):
We are outdoors for all of these.
Speaker 1 (50:25):
You had that the stat the trend of unders wild
card round outdoors went four and two to the under.
Speaker 4 (50:33):
So thank you for that.
Speaker 1 (50:34):
Was able to add that to the profit sheet this
past weekend. Do we have anything similar in the divisional round?
Speaker 8 (50:41):
It usually evens out.
Speaker 7 (50:42):
That is a very wild CARDI stat once we get
to this time of year, it does even out of it.
Speaker 8 (50:48):
I know, Stuck you had just talked about.
Speaker 7 (50:50):
I mean mostly outdoor games, totals in that higher range
do go under the total.
Speaker 8 (50:56):
But I'll add it to the primer if there's anything
interest in there.
Speaker 6 (50:59):
Yeah, card round it's like twenty and three to the
under or something.
Speaker 1 (51:03):
It's still probably because you have some of the offenses
that make it to the playoffs just aren't very good,
and I would think that that has something to do
with it too, and those teams get weeded out by
the time you get to the divisional round, like Pittsburgh
is a good example. That game should have gone over
last night, but Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh's ineptitude on offense is what
held it below the total.
Speaker 4 (51:25):
Yeah, anything else for Evan before we cut them loose.
Speaker 3 (51:30):
Is there any major red flags that you don't think
people are talking about that we should be aware of.
Speaker 4 (51:37):
Great question.
Speaker 8 (51:39):
I mean I will say this so and stuck. You
kind of alluded to it.
Speaker 7 (51:42):
Teams win as an underdog wildcard round are eight and
thirty straight up in the divisional round. So when is
an underdog in the wildcard round? Usually difficult to repeat that.
Since twenty eleven they are three and twenty two. So
that's San Francisco, Buffalo, and Chicago. So just a difficult
spot to do it again.
Speaker 4 (52:02):
Okay, I'll check it out.
Speaker 6 (52:03):
I think I also had that I'm really looking forward
to is in the NFC. I mean, it's weird, it's crazy.
Speaker 5 (52:07):
We have three NFC West teams out of the the
NFC West and the Bears. By the way, I bet
the Cardinals to win that division before the year, so, uh,
what a bet? We got three teams left in the
division around I bet the one that didn't make the
playoffs to win the division. But the NFC coaches are awesome.
(52:30):
You have Ben Johnson versus McVeigh, Shanahan versus McDonald and
like coaching in the playoffs and just coming up with
you know, schematic wrinkles new like, that's what decides these
games that are close. So in the NFC, these coaches
(52:51):
that are left, I can't wait to just see what
they come up with.
Speaker 8 (52:55):
And to answer your question, grab it.
Speaker 7 (52:57):
So fifty seven wild card unders out yours divisionals thirty
seven and thirty three really comes back to even.
Speaker 4 (53:04):
Yeah, yeah, that's not playable based on that. Thanks so much, Evan.
Speaker 1 (53:07):
Go and check out the primary Action Network dot com
or on the Action Network app. That'll do it for
today's episode special thanks to our producers David Paine and
Gifford Gold.
Speaker 4 (53:15):
The Favorites. We'll be back on Thursday right here.
Speaker 1 (53:19):
On the Action Network YouTube page where we talk divisional round,
best bets, more information on these injuries, and some solidified plays.
Two Kings and a Queen Parlay will nominate those as well.
We'll see you next time here on the Favorites presented
by Draft King to the Crown is yours.
Speaker 2 (53:45):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 4 (53:49):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.
Speaker 2 (53:52):
Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorite's presented by Draft Kings. The crown
is yours. We are an Action Network podcast. I'm branding
Kravitz back at it on this wonderful and profitable Tuesday morning.
The first Lady of the pod Kendra back from Duval County,
the prime Minister of DJEN Nation Stucky. On today's podcast,
(00:31):
we have got a load to get to for the
divisional round in the NFL postseason Plant the Flag Games.
Only eight teams left after complete madness ensued in round one. Kendra,
she'll share her deepest thoughts and I hope we get
a detail of how Jacksonville was outside of Josh Allen
(00:54):
running and rumbling and bumbling his way down the field.
We'll get the main event as well, Evans Tuesday. The
primer is available right now as we speak over on
actionnetwork dot Com. So, Kendra, how good was this weekend
overall as a football fan? And then I guess how
bad was it for you as a Jags fan, a
(01:14):
Jags backer and somebody who is in the building for
an iconic Josh Allen performance.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
The first of.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
All, I'd say thank you to Jimmy John's for sending
me some hangover patches.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
You guys are the only reason that I survived that day.
I'm convinced.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
My friends were like, it's technically vacation, like you should
be drinking because you guys know I only drink on vacation, and.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
I was like, okay, fine.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
So I had a lot of champagne before the game,
and thank God that I did because I needed it.
It was so fun, it was so electric, it was
so perfect. It was everything that I wanted it to be.
The weather was great, and then the.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Fourth quarter just sucked. I have to blame Liam Cohen
the most. Love him.
Speaker 3 (01:59):
He's perfect. Picked shout out Lynn Jones. She was right
for everything she said, but it was a bad day
for him. But he's a rookie head coach, so you
know that he's going to have those We got to
the playoffs. We didn't expect to be there, and I
honestly think number two in line for blame is probably
Trevor and then three the.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Secondary those are those are my thoughts.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
I don't know why they didn't run the ball and
not stop running the ball. And then also the kind
of like crazy part about it is the Bills were
so adamant about banning the Toush push, and at the
end of the day they ran the Toush push to
solidify the game, and the offensive line basically carried Josh
Allen on the Toush push and it sucked.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
It's so sucked.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
And then we sat in the parking lot and drank
for like two hours while traffic died down. And then
I went and had a Singer mountain melt. If anybody
knows what that is, oh my god, yeah, I went
and got a Zinger Mountain melt and a Captain Jack's
and it was perfect.
Speaker 1 (02:58):
For those that don't know what a Zinger mountain melt is,
it is a skillet of French fries, a ton of them,
coated in cheese, sour cream, bacon.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Chick get your chicken tenders on top of it, rolled
in whatever like wing sauce you like.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
So I got Buffalo and.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
Then a Captain Jack's is like a seven layer hot
fudge chocolate ice cream cake.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
And me and like eight people set.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
And watched the night game and cried over a Zinger
mountain melts.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
I didn't go to waffle house as well, so I
guess it wasn't all the loss.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
Well, I was mocked openly for backing the Bills because
you can't just back them because of Josh Allen. And
then Josh Allen took over the football game because that's
what great players do. So uh, it was it was
a It was a great weekend for me. I'm upset
to hear that you're that your day was ruined, But
I'd be disingenuous if I said that I didn't enjoy
(03:52):
it a little bit.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
I wasn't mad at you because you chose Josh Allen.
I was mad at you because you stabbed our podcast
family in the back.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
No, I was trying to snake a profit out of
the wild card round, which is what every sports better
should do.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
No, I think you just pulled a Kravits and you
tried to piss everyone off, and for once it worked
out for you.
Speaker 4 (04:12):
Well I did. It was a great weekend.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
But I will say something that Stucky and Evan mentioned
on the Sunday recap show that I think is important
to reiterate is process over results, so not just in
the betting sense, like for the forty nine ers, another
bet that I cashed, horrible process. I got horrible closing
line value on that, but the bet won, so I'm
(04:36):
not going to victory lap it.
Speaker 4 (04:37):
You're just happy when things go.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
You had a great weekend, you should take a victory lap.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
But I had a great weekend in terms of the
wins and the losses. I think some of the process
was a little broken, but I'll take I'll take the dubs.
This was the most profitable weekend I've had the entire season,
so it was. It definitely worked out well the game itself,
talking Jags Bills, the move to go run into the
(05:03):
end zone on the QB sneak when Jacksonville is gonna
let it happen.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
That was a broken process from Sean McDermott. Stucky. I
cannot believe still.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
That they chose to do that at the end of
that game, and that Cam. I mean, all they had
to do is get Cam little to the fifty and
then they would have paid for it. I worry about
Sean McDermott costing this team a game as they get
deeper into the postseason.
Speaker 5 (05:33):
Yeah, that was you had your best week and I
had my worst weekend of the year.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
I had my worst weekend as well.
Speaker 5 (05:39):
I had really good numbers, Like one of my favorite
bets of the year was JAG's first half, which he
got it even money and it closed I don't know,
minus one forty five. The Jacks closed minus two and
a half point favorites at some shops. So yeah, it
was just on the margins are so thin in the
NFL playoffs. I also love the Packers. Just tons of miskicks.
I mean, can literally miss a kick at the end
(06:01):
of the first half. But really that game was decided.
I mean, if you look at the box squad, the
Jags averaged six point six yards per play to the
Bills five and a half. They outgained them. There was
two huge plays in that game. One was the missed
field goal at the end of the first half and
then the Trevor Lawrence his shin going down. I mean
that probably took seven points off the board in the
(06:24):
first half by you know, half of a yard. Well,
nothing the Bills really did. I mean, that was just
lack of awareness by Lawrence. And I thought Parker Washington
being out for most of the first half was absolutely killer.
He saw his impact in the second half where he
went off and the Bills just couldn't cover him. He
was such a difference though. Yeah, but He's still a
huge second half.
Speaker 3 (06:44):
Two of them was averaging like more than ten yards
on like the few carry I think he had like
five touches and like eighty yards and didn't play a
snap the second half, Like that's on Gohen.
Speaker 5 (06:54):
Yeah, they probably should have run it more, but they
were moving the ball the Lawrence pick at the end.
But yeah, to that the process, I mean, that was
just a terrible play. You have to just go down
the reason that you know, there's a couple of reasons
how you know it was a bad play. Besides, you know,
just logic one, the Jags wanted them to score, so
(07:16):
they literally just backed off two. The live money line
odds for the Jags improved after the Bills scored on
that first on the first down play. But just think
about this from a logic standpoint. There's a minute five
to go and the Jags have no timeouts and it's
(07:40):
first and goal with the one. If you go down
at the ones, you just snap it. You could dive forward,
you could do a quick knee. You run forty seconds
off the clock, leaving the Jags with only twenty twenty
five seconds when they get the ball back instead, and
then you have by the way, people are like, oh, well,
you know you have to take the points when you
get them. Josh Allen and the Tush push are automatic,
(08:03):
and you'd have three downs to do it. I mean,
the chances of that are what ninety nine percent that
they would score, and then you leave the Jags almost time.
Speaker 6 (08:12):
Compare that, Compare the.
Speaker 5 (08:14):
Chances of something going wrong a fumbled snap which could
happen on first down too, to the Jags getting the
ball with a minute five compared to twenty seconds and
just getting to midfield.
Speaker 6 (08:25):
You know, you might just need.
Speaker 5 (08:27):
There's some chances where you would only need one first
down to get into field goal range. So yeah, I
just because Lawrence threw a pick does not mean that
the process was right there. McDermott has messed up some
endgame things in the past. We've seen the Chiefs. The
Chiefs game, there were a couple of decisions there when
(08:48):
there was only thirteen seconds left that led to them
losing an overtime.
Speaker 6 (08:53):
So yeah, I did think that.
Speaker 5 (08:55):
That was a very very brained play that ended up
working out for them. But ultimately it was, you know,
sort of a coin flip game that the Bills made
more high leverage plays like there in the first half,
their offense had one good drive, you know, they got
the bad Lawrence pick and then the bad that led
(09:16):
to a field goal, the bad Lawrence pick at the
end which killed the Jags chances of tying it, and
that was ultimately the difference. And Josh Allen was incredible.
Uh some of the throws that he made, the plays
that he made down the stretch were were just awesome.
So uh yeah, hat tip to the Bills for getting
it done on the road. It's really a shame that
(09:37):
the Jags won. It's really shame that both those teams
had to play each other in the first.
Speaker 4 (09:43):
Round big time.
Speaker 5 (09:45):
Like, the Jags won the division and.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Got screwed, and.
Speaker 4 (09:52):
It was the worst possible draw for them. Yeah, absolute worse.
Speaker 5 (09:55):
It was the worst possible draw of any team in
the a f C for winning the division. And then
you know, the Texans finish and second and get to
play the Steelers who get blown out again in the playoffs.
Speaker 6 (10:08):
Same old song with them.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
Let's go to Monday Night Football our main dish for
today's episode, The Texans dismantle the Steelers. Nicocollins ends up
in concussion Protocol I think he's the only player by
Mike count that entered concussion protocol and then stayed there.
Everybody else it was like a rumor as to whether
or not they actually were administered to any sort of test.
(10:36):
But it was a close game at the half seven
to six Houston, and then it was all Houston from there.
Twenty three point fourth quarter almost went over the total
despite the Steelers only kicking two field goals and scoring
zero touchdowns. Dome team outdoors. Houston's been a great road
team this year. They handled the conditions very well. They're
(10:56):
gonna have to do it again in the divisional round.
Speaker 4 (10:59):
Stuck here.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
Biggest takeaway from the game last night with the Texans
dusting the corpse of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Speaker 5 (11:08):
Yeah, I mean the Steelers got the breaks that they
needed early, like with the turnovers, the fumbles. They were
plus three and turnover margin at one point before the
Texans added on a couple of defensive scores late. But
their offense just couldn't do anything. That Texans defense it's
there's no bells and whistles, it's just line up. They're
not going to disguise anything, and their edge rush is
(11:29):
elite their corners are elite, and the pressure just got
to Rogers and they weren't able to move the ball consistently.
I thought Straub was very shaky, uh, you know, especially
with all the fumbles they had. They had snap issues,
but they did enough. Christian Kirk was amazing in that game,
(11:51):
and the story of the game was the the Texans
defense just dominating that game. And it's just the same
old with the Steelers. I mean, if you're a Steelers fan,
you have to be exhausted with this. It's just like
win nine or ten games, get into the playoffs, get
blown out. I think it's the fifth straight time they've
lost by double digits in the playoffs that they've lost
(12:12):
having i think seven straight now playoff games.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
And as it turns out, that would be a stronger
trend than the one that everyone was pointing to. While
they haven't lost on Monday night football and however long,
who the fuck cares what day they're playing on, Like
that's any relevance. Not winning in the playoffs, Now, that's
a trend. That's a trend that matters playing on Monday
and playing well when this isn't even a traditional Monday
(12:37):
night football game.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
They're just going to change it to whatever the stat
would be in the regular season next time they're on
Monday Night Football.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
That's a.
Speaker 6 (12:46):
Seven against the spreading straight up.
Speaker 5 (12:47):
I think seven straight losses is the most any coach
ties Marvin Lewis, So, like, what is the future of
the Steelers? Like they it's they're just stuck in limbo
like that. They haven't and none of these teams that
have made the playoffs over the past ten years have
had a shot of winning the Super Bowl. They haven't
found their franchise quarterback, and but they just keep winning
nine ten games, And what is the future of Tomlin?
Speaker 6 (13:11):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (13:12):
But if you're a Steelers fan, it's just like it's
the same story over and over again, and because of
where you finish, you end up not being able to
get a high draft pic and then you just sort
of like, let's just run it back. And you know,
they paid Watt and then they got to find an
aging veteran quarterback and they just don't have that ceiling.
So I don't know, if I was a Steelers fan,
(13:33):
i'd want to just blow it up start anew But
I mean, there is some value in just being in
the running every year like as a fan, just you know,
instead of going through a couple of years where.
Speaker 4 (13:46):
Yeah, it's better than being awful.
Speaker 5 (13:48):
But it's it's it just gotta feel dejav like deja
vous for the Steelers, for Steelers fans year and a.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
Year out, I will say, it does feel like a
little bit of I hate anybody get hurt specifically like
any kind of TBI, but it does feel like a
universal equalizer that Nico's in concussion protocol and so is
Christian Gonzalez.
Speaker 5 (14:09):
Yeah, that's a massive story because the Patriots don't have
depth at corner, Like they have a couple of guys
including Alex Austin that are on IR.
Speaker 6 (14:24):
And yeah, and then Nico Collins going up.
Speaker 5 (14:28):
So say it's no Gonzalez and you have Nico Collins
out there, that could be a huge advantage for the Texans.
If it's if it's Christian Gonzalez out there, no Nico Collins, right,
then that's even more of an advantage for the Patriots defense.
So which like it looked like Collins Collins number one
has one fewer day, right, shorter short week.
Speaker 6 (14:49):
Playing on Monday night, and his look bad. Now it's
the playoffs.
Speaker 5 (14:54):
No one will admit that, No teams will admit this,
but concussion protocol seems to be a little less. Yeah so,
but short week for Nico after how that looked that
that was bad. So, But that's that's a huge storyline
to watch in this game, is you know, Nico Collins
(15:15):
and Christian Gonzalez, to do one of them play?
Speaker 6 (15:17):
Do both of them miss? Do both of them play?
Speaker 5 (15:20):
So that's that's something that I'll be monitoring closely throughout
the week. But yeah, the Patriots defense I thought played well,
played okay, but I thought, I mean, I was dead
wrong in this game. I thought Justin Herbert was horrific.
I mean, you guys are right, Cloff Herbert, there might
be something there.
Speaker 6 (15:39):
I mean it was.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
He's now own three owned three in the playoffs, two touchdowns,
seven turnovers during his time, there.
Speaker 5 (15:47):
Were throws to be made, and I mean he had
time to throw in the first half. The Patriots don't
have some elite pass rush, and in the second half,
once they got a big lead, they just started blitzing
and then there was and then it just snowballed from there.
But in the first half, there was he had clean
pockets at times, and there were open receivers down the field.
There was a couple touchdowns that he had that he
(16:07):
just didn't throw, and he looked completely frout. He looked
like a rookie quarterback. It was shocking how bad he was.
Speaker 6 (16:16):
I believe.
Speaker 5 (16:17):
Don't quote me on this, but I believe he had
a first percentile PFF grade. It was the second lowest
single game playoff PFF grade of any quarterback over the
past twenty years.
Speaker 4 (16:30):
Only the bottom.
Speaker 6 (16:33):
Joe Webb was the worst.
Speaker 5 (16:35):
But it was like he was shockingly bad and he
wouldn't He just wasn't making throws that were to be
had down the field. Now, the Chargers, I think Robert
Splaine said this that some of the Chargers came up
to him after the game and they were like, we
have no idea. We had no idea what types of
coverages you guys were in. Now, the Patriots, the Skies
(16:56):
their coverage as well. They mix it up, but there
were throwsy hat and Herbert just looked like he looked
completely gun shy in the pocket. It was it was
shocking to watch. So did you guys hear that was troubling?
Speaker 3 (17:11):
Did you guys hear about all the like them bragging
about all of the weather gear that they had gotten.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
No, no, oh my god.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
This was like a huge news piece up here, probably
obviously because the game was here, but about how they
had bought all of this like tech year.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
They flew in all this different like warm weather stuff.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
We were gonna be wearing this and this kind of
warmer and this and that, and everyone was just like okay.
Speaker 4 (17:37):
And that Derwin James was it wasn't it like thirty degrees?
Speaker 3 (17:40):
Well, it was definitely warmer up here than usual this weekend.
Speaker 4 (17:44):
Yeah, that's that's odd to you know.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
We're gonna go We're gonna go buy some Batman body
tech so that we can stay warm and thirty degree weather.
Let's talk some Let's talk some opening lines for the
divisional round. We've got our plant the Flag games at
the end of the pod Evans Tuesday Prime as well,
help us get ready for the weekend. Our Thursday episode
is where we officially set them in stone. The Rams
(18:08):
opened as three and a half point favorites at Chicago.
We've seen that line depending on where you look, bounce
to four at some places.
Speaker 4 (18:15):
It's three and a half At Draft King.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
Still, the Seahawks opened as seven point favorites at home
against the forty nine Ers, the third meeting between these
two teams. They are now seven and a half point favorites.
The Patriots opened US two and a half point favorites
against the Texans. That line is up to a soft
three minus one oh five on DK.
Speaker 4 (18:35):
And then this is where we've seen the most movement.
Speaker 1 (18:37):
The Broncos plus one and a half point underdogs against
the Buffalo Bills. The Broncos, of course off the buy
they're at home, Allen's all beat up. Well, now the
Broncos are favored by a point and a half. It's
at even money at plus one hundred. But this one's
kind of dancing as it stands right now between the two.
(18:59):
So I'm gonna ask you guys this question this way,
rather than us diving into what side we're on with
these games immediately, because we'll get to that point if
I just asked you among the four games this weekend,
trying to answer this without giving away your side on
the game, which is the most fascinating evaluation, Kendra, We'll
(19:22):
start with you on this of these four games, which
one do you find yourself most likely to get in
the weeds on I'll put it that way.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
Probably the Bears in the Rams. I feel like this
one feels when you say in the weeds, you mean
like about the conversation, Like.
Speaker 1 (19:42):
I'm just gonna need, Like I'm just gonna need as
much detail as possible before I can make anything that
resembles a decision on whichever game it is.
Speaker 3 (19:52):
Oh, well, then it's got to be the Patriots and
the Texans because of the concussion protocol for Nico Collins
and Christian Zalez, like their number one receiver and their
number one corner.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
Like, it's definitely going to be that game. I'm gonna
need injury.
Speaker 3 (20:04):
Reports, probably gonna wait and figure out what the weather is.
The Seahawks and the forty nine Ers, we know what
to anticipate there. Everybody's going to be, you know, injured
for the forty nine ers, and what version of Sam
Darnold are we going to get? Those are the two
headlines the Bills headlined Josh Allen, the Texans and the Patriots.
I think lots of injuries, lots of question marks of
who's going to play.
Speaker 2 (20:23):
And then the Rams and the Bears.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
How I think the conversation of that is how hurd
is Matt Stafford's hand?
Speaker 4 (20:28):
The end stuck you? What about you?
Speaker 6 (20:31):
Yeah, Stafford's finger. I don't know.
Speaker 5 (20:32):
I say it's gonna be okay, But then there's all
the weather looks like it's gonna be okay across the
world except in Chicago. It's just going to be really,
really really cold. Stafford historically is not played well in
the cold. You're going to see that stat a lot.
I think he's like one in nine.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
High forty one. This is twenty nine here.
Speaker 1 (20:47):
Yeah, this is supposed to be the coldest game in
his career. Also for a guy that doesn't perform well
in cold weather.
Speaker 5 (20:53):
But last year in the snow in Philly, he played
really well for what it's worth. So you always have
to worry about sample sizes. It went with like his finger,
how does that hould up? I would say as far
as like what did what? I want to dive into
the most, it's probably Patriots Texans. I mean the Patriots
(21:18):
just tough to price because of their schedule, right, and
then you played the Chargers. They finally faced a good
defense and their offense didn't look great. I mean the
Chargers defense did everything it could. They'll keep them in
that game. I also thought Harball was really bad. Like
you get two trips inside the two and you come
away with three points, you go for it. You go
for it the first time, to kick a field goal
the second time, but like how and then Herbert was
(21:40):
just so bad and like there were open receivers. And
then obviously you had that Chargers offensive line, but the
Texans offensive line isn't great either.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
And Stroud was bad that I'm worried he stirred the
ball over three times.
Speaker 4 (21:52):
He got away with it.
Speaker 1 (21:52):
You're not gonna get away with that against New England
if that were Yeah, you can.
Speaker 5 (21:55):
Get away with all those fumbles against the Steelers, but yeah,
and then what will this Patriots offense look against the
Texans defense? Like this Texans defense is good enough to
carry them to a super Bowl, but the offense can't
turn the ball over.
Speaker 6 (22:11):
And you can't.
Speaker 5 (22:13):
You can't go on the road and fumble it three
or four times and have miss snaps when you're not playing.
You know, a statue s Aaron Rodgers and that Steelers offense,
the Bills Broncos. It seems pretty straightforward in that the
Broncos should be able to run the ball here, which
(22:34):
is gonna help bo Knicks can use his legs. The
Bills have struggled against mobile quarterbacks, and then like they're
gonna play a lot of man, which the Bills have
struggled with because the receivers can't really get separation, and
the Bills that wide receiver room, I mean, it just
gets more decimated with each passing game, so it's hard
(22:54):
to see the Bills getting open much. The Broncos are
probably gonna load the box and you know, trust their
corners on the outside, so that I think that that
just comes down to, like what can how heroic can
Josh Allen be? Because the Jaguars secondary is much worse
than the Broncos secondary.
Speaker 6 (23:13):
They also play a lot more zone, which the Bills.
Speaker 2 (23:15):
I never want to see Greg Newsome again.
Speaker 5 (23:17):
They've had more success against. And then on the other side,
it's just like the Bill's defense is not great. But
what which version of bo Knicks do you get? I
mean bow Knicks. He can be horrific at times, missing
open receivers.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
Peyton Manning or brockwall Osweiler in that jersey, which one.
Speaker 4 (23:38):
Yeah, mating or broken Peyton Manning.
Speaker 5 (23:41):
But I do think that the Bills, I mean, the
Broncos have more consistent, easier paths to offense with their
running game and you know Bo Nicks's legs and than
the Bills, who I don't. I don't know if they're
receivers are going to be able to get open here,
(24:02):
and that's gonna make it tough. But the wild guard
is that you have Josh Allen versus Bonis and sometimes,
like we can break down these games a lot, and
but like, is Josh Allen in these AFC playoffs? Just
the Mahomes of years pass?
Speaker 1 (24:20):
Right?
Speaker 5 (24:20):
Like you could like when Mahomes would play the Bills
or the Ravens and they would be underdogs, and but
you could just say, but we have Patrick Mahomes, which
might it might be good enough. So we'll see how
how Buffalo handles that Denver defense. But yeah, I'm looking
forward to to all four games. The the Rams Bears,
(24:46):
like the every every Bears game is the same, like
it's just like a movie.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
Yeah, I'm having a hard time with that one because
I can you can kind of sense where the sharp
money probably is and maybe that tilts some of your
opinions based on the way that you want to bet
this league. The Rams are going to be the sharp side,
but the Bears all year have been the horseshoe, stuck
(25:14):
in the ass team of the year, even more so
than Denver, And both of those teams have mastered the
art of being down in the fourth quarter and figuring
out a way to win anyway. Chicago's just done it
in more miraculous fashion. And of all the crowds that
we saw this past weekend, and I thought Jacksonville's was tremendous, Kendrick,
you can speak to that better than I can, because.
Speaker 4 (25:36):
I've been at all there.
Speaker 3 (25:37):
I've been at every postseason game that they've had except
for the twenty seventeen AFC Championship game.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
But you also, like, I think people really showed out because.
Speaker 3 (25:47):
That's the last time fans are going to be in
that stadium like that because they're renovating it, so next
year a lot of it's going to be blocked off,
and in the following.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
Year they're in Orlando. So the city really definitely showed out.
Speaker 1 (25:57):
But being able to hold being able to hold off
Buffalo in the state of Florida is very difficult because
the Snowbirds will show up.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
Because it's waiting room.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
But my point is that Chicago's I thought Chicago's crowd
was the best of the weekend.
Speaker 4 (26:13):
They made a very real difference in the second game.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
It really did.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
Of that game, Gifford, I have videos of how loud
it was, if you would like to include one in this,
But I'm very drunk and booing, so.
Speaker 4 (26:25):
I'm assuming that will be hard.
Speaker 5 (26:27):
Yes, So yeah, I mean the Bear it's incredible that
the wins that they've had, I mean they've now have
seven wins. Been troun with them two minutes ago, and
that game, I mean, he need Brandon McManus to miss
three kicks and then you need a fourth and eight
where if they don't call the false start, the snap
goes over the head and the game is over. But
(26:48):
a fourth and eight, it was a great throw by Caleb,
but that game, you're down eleven if you don't get
that fourth and eight with six minutes to go, and
the game is over like that. It's incredible the things.
And then the Packers at the end, they have no
offensive lineman left, no timeouts, they get an injury or runoff,
they get down on the twenty and then time runs
(27:09):
out on them. But if McManus doesn't miss all those kicks,
they could have kicked a field goal to tie it
to win it. I mean, he probably would have missed
another one. It was just a horrific game. Maybe it
was poetic justice for the Bears. The last home game
prior to that was the double doink and now you
get the triple miss from McManus. But yeah, it's just like,
(27:33):
can the Bears pull another one out of their ass?
I mean, they this easily could have been a seven
or eight win team during the regular season, but they
seem to have some magic going.
Speaker 1 (27:44):
Yeah, and they have a quarterback that can do miraculous
things at the end of games. They've got a good
head coach, and the turnover differential has worked in their
favor all year.
Speaker 4 (27:54):
All those things cater to being able.
Speaker 1 (27:57):
To put together unlikely wins at the end of games,
and so I don't think it's a total accident. One
thing that I think is really cool about this upcoming
weekend is that we only have one rematch. The only
one is the forty nine ers in the Seahawks. All
the other games the other three are unique matchups. Trivia
(28:18):
question for you guys, first one to buzz in to
get the right answer is the winner. Here you win
nothing of actual substance other than perhaps some self pride.
The forty nine ers in the Seahawks met in week one,
and in week eighteen. They now meet in the playoffs.
Believe Evan can chime in on this. I believe the
he mentions in the primer first time in NFL history
(28:39):
Week one, last week of the season, and in the postseason.
Does anybody remember the first game was in Seattle? What
the point spread was in that game?
Speaker 5 (28:50):
Say this again the fort Evan playoffs. You just want
to know that that spread from.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
I was asking the trivia question was I was just
sort of layering some extra context. But so, this is
the first time in NFL history that two teams will
face off after meeting each other in the first week
of the regular season and the last week of the
regular season. But the trivia question is much more simplistic
than that. What was the point spread in Week one
when these two teams met in Seattle.
Speaker 3 (29:17):
I'm gonna guess a point and a half in favor
of I'm gonna go La or I mean San Francisco,
it was.
Speaker 5 (29:24):
Yeah, I think San fran was maybe a one point favorite.
I mean coming into the year, there were there were questions, remember,
like so the forty nine ers people were high on,
Remember they were healthy then, and then the Seahawks. People
were low on the Seahawks coming into the year with
(29:46):
Sam Darnold and that offensive line, and so there were
major questions about the Seahawks. So yeah, I think the
forty nine Ers were tiny.
Speaker 4 (29:56):
Favorites, two and a half point favorites on the road.
Speaker 1 (30:00):
My how times have changed, and now they are seven
and a half point underdogs. And I'm not saying that
that's an overcorrection obviously, a big part of that is
how good Seattle's been and how decimated the forty nine
ers are in terms of their injuries. We're about to
dive into our plant the Flag games, but first a
word from our very own Kendra Middleton.
Speaker 3 (30:20):
The Favorites podcast is sponsored by DraftKings sportsbook and in
partnership with DraftKings, our listeners get a great offer right now.
New customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins. Love
the thrill of live betting. DraftKings has got you covered.
Bet live on Star player props and in progress games
right as they happen. To get started, use promo code
(30:42):
favorites when signing up with DraftKings. That's called favorites when
signing up with DraftKings for three hundred dollars back in
bonus bets. If you are bet wins, the crown is yours?
Speaker 4 (30:51):
All right, Kendra?
Speaker 1 (30:52):
Before we get to it official picks to start the week?
What is on your mind?
Speaker 5 (30:57):
What selling you about?
Speaker 6 (31:01):
Could you've been?
Speaker 2 (31:07):
Okay?
Speaker 3 (31:07):
So, before I describe this, if I brought up electromagnetism
in sports, would either of you know what I was
talking about?
Speaker 2 (31:13):
Have you seen this news?
Speaker 4 (31:15):
No?
Speaker 2 (31:16):
Stuck?
Speaker 4 (31:17):
They have to do with magnets.
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Kind of stuck. Do you know what I'm talking about?
Speaker 5 (31:20):
If I say this, maybe is it the forty is
it the forty nine ers?
Speaker 4 (31:25):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (31:25):
Okay, cravits so low frequency electromagnetic fields can degrade collagen,
weak in tendons and cause soft tissue damage at levels
regulators call safe. We have a real fast study proving this,
and an NFL team whose practice facility sits next to
a match. A massive electrical substrain, and the forty nine
(31:46):
Ers have the most injured roster in the NFL this season.
Speaker 4 (31:51):
Thoughts, Yeah, makes sense.
Speaker 2 (31:55):
Is artans oil hat on as a podcast? Is marsic question?
Speaker 1 (31:58):
I am not a u I am not a professional scientist,
but it sounds like it makes sense. You know, you've
got people that live near polluted water that end up
with a higher rate of frequency in terms of cancer
and things of that nature.
Speaker 4 (32:15):
So yeah, it makes sense. I think that it's.
Speaker 1 (32:18):
Unfortunate for San Francisco that they've been put in this
health bind, but I buy it.
Speaker 5 (32:25):
I have no idea, but I do think that there
is something like if you go back the last ten years,
the forty nine ers have been one of the unluckiest
teams in terms of injuries, Like every year they had
like one clean year when they went to the zeer Wold,
but like average games lost to injury, they're always bottom
one or two. So I don't know if it's some
(32:46):
other outside force or like their training staff, if they're
just missing something. But there's been too many years where
there's it's just that it feels like it just can't be.
Speaker 3 (33:00):
Yeah, do we think it's like a future lawsuit situation, like,
do you think that you could, like, could you sue?
Speaker 2 (33:05):
I don't know, Yeah, I mean.
Speaker 1 (33:08):
You can sue for anything. What's lot is that CMC
is healthy of all of all the forty nine ers
to not experience an injury this year. This year, Christian
McCaffery one of the most often injured players in the NFL,
and he's been clean bill of health all year.
Speaker 4 (33:24):
I do think part of it, too, outside of the.
Speaker 1 (33:26):
Electro magneticism, if I'm saying that right, is that this
this has to be one of the oldest teams in
the NFL.
Speaker 4 (33:33):
Fred Warner got hurt. He's old. George Kittle got hurt,
he's old. There's Trent Williams, he's old.
Speaker 1 (33:41):
I think that probably plays as much a factor as
some factory plant that's next to their practice facility.
Speaker 2 (33:49):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (33:50):
I think I think my tenfoil hots on I'm fully woke.
Speaker 1 (33:53):
Okay, Is there is there any other context you would
like to add in terms of your your opinion on
the matter before we hand out.
Speaker 3 (34:01):
Some picks, not particularly on the injuries, but I would
like to say justice for my man Robert Sala.
Speaker 2 (34:08):
The Jets were not his fault. He rules the end.
Speaker 4 (34:12):
Yes he does. Yes, that was.
Speaker 2 (34:14):
Fuck the New York Jets Boom Boom.
Speaker 1 (34:16):
Boom coaching coaching masterpiece by Shanahan. And I'll give most
of the credit to Sala even though he's going up
against an offense. I'm pretty sure they draw their plays
on with crayon. In terms of what they're doing in Philadelphia.
Speaker 5 (34:33):
Seven drives for the Eagles, a twenty five percent dropback
success rate against that defense. They run forty eight hitches
on thirty seven dropbacks. Forty eight hitches. It's over one
hitch per play. That's their They broke their own record
early this season. I mean, I don't know. They kept
running four verts at the end against quarters coverage, which
is I mean, I don't know what the Eagles were doing.
(34:56):
Ye have more injuries. Jayer Brown got hurt for the Niners.
Kittle obviously, it does it. Fred Warner was saying, like
a month ago, he's targeting being back to the Division round.
Doesn't look like he will be back. We'll see on
some some of the other linebackers, and Ricky Pearsall we'll
see on him as well.
Speaker 6 (35:15):
Uh said.
Speaker 5 (35:15):
The I mean the Niners injury report always worth monitoring,
but it's you have to give creditasal for what he did.
I mean, he was down fifth, sixth, and seventh string
linebackers and to get the job done in the road
was definitely impressive, even though a lot of the blame also.
Speaker 6 (35:33):
Has to go to the Eagles for just the play
calling and.
Speaker 5 (35:37):
They're they're they're just all year. It's like, it's amazing.
I've never seen an offense just going to the tank
for two quarters at a time almost every game. I mean,
it's was stunning, no rhythm, no flow, no sense of urgency,
and it was a fitting end of their season. But
(35:59):
I don't know if that forty nine ers defense will
have the same type of results against.
Speaker 1 (36:04):
Seattle, especially a team that will actually commit to the
run and the forty nine Ers cannot stop it. I
cannot find enough ways to throw Seattle money line into
parlays this weekend. I'm not even I just I want
nothing to do with the number. I just know I
feel the most confident opinion I have headed into this weekend,
(36:28):
which is not a hot take for a team favored
by a touchdown and a hook, is that Seattle was
beating San Francisco this it ends now, and I've had
a pretty good beat on the forty nine ers. This
is it, that was it. That was the perfect matchup
for them going up against that vanilla offense. That team's
broken in Philly after they just don't have the personalities
(36:49):
to back up a Super Bowl championship.
Speaker 4 (36:51):
But anyway, let's yeah.
Speaker 5 (36:52):
I mean the offense, like the offense can do anything
against Seattle the last time they played.
Speaker 6 (36:57):
It's going to take a you know, one.
Speaker 5 (36:59):
Of the the most one of the beautiful things about
the playoffs and then one of the you know, the
things that makes it very difficult to handicap is number one.
The lines are very efficient this time of the year.
But you could dive into like tendency and the NFL
you're always going to be changing things from a week
to week basis, but especially in the playoffs like this
is when you change tendencies a ton and in the
(37:23):
highest leverage games. And the forty nine ers did just
play Seattle and couldn't do anything offensively. It's going to
take a Shanahan masterclass for them, I think, to be
able to put up enough points here. The way that
you beat Donald too is that you got to get
pressure on him, and like that's the forty nine ers
(37:47):
are incapable of generating pressure. So like, this isn't the
type of game where I think that Donald is going
to struggle. And I mean, yes, that last game that
they played looks relatively was what was it, thirteen to three,
(38:08):
so it looks relatively close, But the Seahawks had twenty
three first downs of the Niners nine. The total yarders
is three sixty one to one seventy three. I mean
that game was not as close as the final score indicated.
I mean, you have the the Seahawks went sixty six
yard drive, turned it over on downs, fifty five yard drive,
(38:29):
missed a fueld goal, They settled for a couple other
field goals after long drives. They missed a fuel goal
after a ninety yard drive. Now, the forty nine Ers
did throw a pick inside the five late that bounced
off McCaffrey's hands, but if you watch that game, it
was the Seahawks were completely dominant on a play by
play basis. So I'm it's gonna have to be a
(38:51):
Shanahan masterclass, and he's gonna have to come up with
some You're gonna have to call up some more like
reverse passes and uh, some creative ways to get guys
open and you with the pressure that Seattle can generate
without blitzing, I.
Speaker 1 (39:03):
Might commission that we throw the Seahawks money line in
with whatever we come up with on Thursday. Make it
a four leg Let's see if we can go that,
or just eliminate someone's and throw that in there. Let's
get throw our plant the flag games presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 4 (39:16):
The crown is yours.
Speaker 7 (39:19):
Might flag and it shut up.
Speaker 5 (39:20):
I'm trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 1 (39:22):
Okay, you're really planting your flag in that thick Kendra,
who you got?
Speaker 3 (39:26):
I came back from the airport literally fifteen minutes before
our show. I went one in three last weekend. It
was my worst weekend of the entire year. And my
uber driver was a nice Lebanese man and he loved
sports gambling, and he told me that he was all
over the Patriots this week. He said that they were
gonna kick ass, not even a Patriots fan, and I
(39:48):
have to trust him. So since I couldn't hit a bet,
I'm gonna go with my uber driver's pick of the
Patriots money line the end. I'm if I.
Speaker 2 (39:59):
Don't hit this, then I don't.
Speaker 3 (40:01):
It's like a reverse curse, like they're in bed jail
for me, but now they're not. I have bet against
them and they've won all year, and now that I'm
on them, are they gonna lose?
Speaker 2 (40:10):
But I'm gonna go with my nice uber driver.
Speaker 1 (40:14):
What was what was his name? Remember John Sadan? So
it's not really your play. So like there, they could
still be in jail for you. You're just tailing.
Speaker 3 (40:24):
Sadan in Sadan, I trust, I have nowhere else to go,
nothing else to do.
Speaker 2 (40:29):
Shout out Sadan, I'm tailing.
Speaker 4 (40:33):
Black planted Stucky who you got.
Speaker 5 (40:36):
Yeah, I haven't bet anything yet still, I mean we're
really at the dive in this time of the year
to these games. So that's what I'll be spend in
the next couple of days doing at over fifty one.
I thought about the Bears rams under it's not fifty
and a half. I mean that's a in freezing cold temperatures.
That's a very high number. Now it's hard, just like
(40:57):
which defense is getting stops. I mean the Rams secondary
is over the past month and a half has been torched.
I mean all of their games have been absolute shootouts,
but I mean the outdoor totals in the playoffs a
forty seven or above, which is a key number, fifty
two to twenty seven and two, it's sixty six percent.
I think they're sixty seven percent at fifty one or above.
(41:21):
So I thought about that, but.
Speaker 6 (41:24):
I'm going to go. I also thought I might.
Speaker 5 (41:26):
Play the Broncos first half again. I faded the Bills
last week, but I would make that bet again. I mean,
if Washington doesn't get hurt and all Pro misses a
kick and then you got a fourth down stop on
a on a fluke play that took seven off the board,
and you know they still had a chance to to push.
So I might look at the Broncos first half. Although
(41:47):
Sean Payton in the playoffs is just six and twelve
against the spread in the first half, for what it's worth,
but I'm.
Speaker 6 (41:54):
Going to go.
Speaker 5 (41:55):
Linees more efficient this time of the year, which makes teasers,
specifically teasers across three and seven more valuable. So I
think one of the better players on the board teasing
the Seahawks from seven and a half down to one
and a half and then the Texans from two and
a half up to eight and a half that one.
(42:19):
There's still some uncertainty with Nego Collins and Christian Gonzalez.
I actually think Gonzalez would be a bigger loss than Collins. Now,
Collins would give them more upside if Gonzalez doesn't play.
But the Texans did develop some depth at receiver when
Collins was out earlier this year.
Speaker 2 (42:35):
So they have nowhere.
Speaker 5 (42:37):
So yeah, now the emergence of Kirk, but they have
some options. But mainly this is just you're gonna get
me over a touchdown. With a total that's sitting at
forty one, I think it makes some sense and that
Texans defense will keep them in the game. And we
saw that the Patriots offense, which didn't play a defense
(42:57):
with a pulse all year, looked a lot more pedestrian
against the Chargers defense. And the Chargers defense was getting
the charges. Defense isn't known for getting elite pressure. Would
they sacked May like five or six times. They were
getting constant pressure. So I worry about the especially that
the left side of the Patriots offensive line, I mean
(43:18):
Will Campbell was getting abused blegend So going up against
that Texans pass rush, I could see may under constant fire.
Speaker 6 (43:30):
Now the same you.
Speaker 5 (43:31):
You're gonna probably get a heavy blitz package from the
Patriots again.
Speaker 2 (43:35):
Could I think they're getting Tonga back.
Speaker 5 (43:39):
Yeah, I could get Tonga back, but I think it
just makes sense to tease that over seven in a
in a game with a total forty one. So I
we'll go Seahawks Texans teaser. I mean, he's yeh, Seahawks Texans.
Speaker 1 (43:53):
Caesar speaking my language over here. I'm gonna go with
the Bills money line. I don't trust the Broncos. I
think they're one of the most overrated one seeds of
my lifetime. Their defense is great, their offense is average
at best. Denver failed to get to twenty or past
twenty and their final three games their last two games
(44:15):
were against the Chiefs and the Chargers, essentially their backups.
Definitely for the Chargers, the Chiefs were just broken at
the end of the year, still couldn't score. The Jags
held them to twenty and that was on their home field.
The defense is great. One of their big weaknesses is
against slot wide receivers. Well, that's what Khalil Shakira is.
So if you want to go next level, I mean
(44:36):
Josh Allen just against man coverage. If you turn your
back to him and you allow him to take off,
then that's where he's the most dangerous. I fear that
the Broncos will not commit to the run the way
that they absolutely should against Buffalo, the way that Jacksonville
failed miserably, and doing that, they were way too committed
to their game plan and what they've been all year,
(44:58):
which is run to set up the pass. Well, all
they had to do was run against Buffalo. Bagel Touton
was unstoppable in this game. They went away from him.
Made no sense whatsoever. Sixty three percent pass rate and
neutral situations are the Denver Broncos. That's not how you
want to play against the Buffalo Bills. Alan is in
hero ball mode. I think he goes out and gets
(45:19):
a win. Now on the teaser front, I am playing
this from both sides, so I want to be completely
transparent on this.
Speaker 4 (45:26):
I like the Bills on the money line. I also
tease the.
Speaker 1 (45:29):
Broncos when they were one and a half up to
seven and a half and the Seahawks down to one.
So I would love if this was a Bill's win
somewhere between one and seven. That would be ideal profit
for me, but I do like the Bills on the
money line. Anybody want to yell at me about it
this week?
Speaker 2 (45:48):
I can't yell you you you you you can't. I
literally can't.
Speaker 8 (45:53):
No.
Speaker 5 (45:53):
I have no strong opinion on the full game, So
I'm fine with you. Run your take, Josh Allen in
the playoffs of a bonick.
Speaker 6 (46:00):
That's fine.
Speaker 4 (46:01):
So a two recap. I was letting that marinate for
a moment.
Speaker 1 (46:05):
By the way, Kendra, thank you for that Patriots money
line against the Texans teaser. Seahawks down to a point,
Texans up to eight and a half, and I've got
the Bills money line. That all presented by Draft Kings
where the crown is yours.
Speaker 4 (46:22):
Now for the main event.
Speaker 1 (46:23):
No betting week can start without it, especially when you
get to the playoffs. The primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan,
Welcome to the show. How did you do this past weekend?
Speaker 8 (46:36):
I put four picks in the app and went two
and two one loss. That sucked.
Speaker 7 (46:40):
I had Jaden Reid under three and a half receptions.
He got that fourth reception on that final catch. So
but that's what ends up happening. When you end up
taking unders, you get stabbed in the heart. I also
said Parkinson over receiving yards on that last catch. So
you know, give if, take if, what's that we do here?
Speaker 1 (46:57):
So we have a couple of teams that get to
they were able to sit back and watch the wild
Card round just like the rest of us. The Seahawks
and the Broncos off of a bye. How have those
teams performed in recent years?
Speaker 7 (47:12):
You know, kravitz by suck, especially for covering the spread.
I mean, that's what we've seen historically. So just blanketed
since O three home team's division round coming off of bye,
forty three percent ats three and seven ats since twenty
twenty in that Seattle spot, when you're a favorite of
seven plus seventeen and twenty six forty percent, so.
Speaker 8 (47:34):
It's usually pretty difficult.
Speaker 7 (47:35):
But you also aren't usually facing an electrocuted team who's
missing half their roster. So we'll have to see how
that San Francisco walking Dead does in this situation.
Speaker 1 (47:47):
What about Chicago? They came back down twenty one to three,
could have even been more if McManus could make a
kick or two. They're off of one of the most
epic comebacks in playoff history. I would guess that teams
in that situation do not perform well the following week,
would I be correct?
Speaker 8 (48:08):
Yeah, you're right.
Speaker 7 (48:09):
It's also one of the craziest situations we've seen so Chicago.
Being a home underdog in back to back games in
the playoffs is just not something we really see, right, Like,
usually you win the first game and everyone's like, oh wow,
look at this team, and you end up as a favorite.
This would be just the second time a team is
an home underdog in back to back playoff games. The
(48:30):
Eagles did it in seventeen eighteen, and the Bears are
the first team in NFL history and since we've had
wildcards to do it in Wildcard and Divisional.
Speaker 8 (48:38):
So we've never seen a team be home dog in
back to backs.
Speaker 7 (48:42):
Crazy there, and you mentioned it yourself. I'll give you
a few here. So those teams, and you've seen the
stat everywhere. Teams leading a playoff game by fifteen plus
start of the fourth quarter have lost two games before
the Super Bowl. The twenty two forty nine Ers over
the Giants, the seventy two Cowboys of the Niners. They
both lost the following week by a combined score. I'm
(49:02):
gonna do quick math of fifty seven to nine in
their next game, which.
Speaker 8 (49:08):
Is absolutely terrible. I'll go one further.
Speaker 7 (49:11):
Since division re alignment in two thousand and two, teams
that after coming back from ten plus points down in
the playoffs just eight and twenty two in the next
playoff game and five and fifteen in aning round before
the Super Bowl. So yes, very difficult to bounce back.
But Chicago's seeing a little bit of love here. Sixty
five percent of tickets early week lines come down at TAD.
(49:32):
I saw some fours now three and a half, so
we will see that.
Speaker 5 (49:37):
Teams also teams off of a home teams off of
a win, and now right win is a home dog
in the wild card round since two thousand and three,
which is what our database goes back to zero to
twelve straight up. Yeah, against the spread. One of the
(49:57):
covers was the the jag when uh, they're not the Jags.
It was the Texans when the Chiefs took that intentional
safety at the end of the game.
Speaker 4 (50:09):
Do you remember that it wasn't even a real cover.
Speaker 5 (50:11):
Yeah, So teams off of a win as a home
dog the next round historically, No, it's only a twelve
game sample.
Speaker 6 (50:17):
Size, but it has been pretty most of those games
have been blowouts.
Speaker 4 (50:23):
We are outdoors for all of these.
Speaker 1 (50:25):
You had that the stat the trend of unders wild
card round outdoors went four and two to the under.
Speaker 4 (50:33):
So thank you for that.
Speaker 1 (50:34):
Was able to add that to the profit sheet this
past weekend. Do we have anything similar in the divisional round?
Speaker 8 (50:41):
It usually evens out.
Speaker 7 (50:42):
That is a very wild CARDI stat once we get
to this time of year, it does even out of it.
Speaker 8 (50:48):
I know, Stuck you had just talked about.
Speaker 7 (50:50):
I mean mostly outdoor games, totals in that higher range
do go under the total.
Speaker 8 (50:56):
But I'll add it to the primer if there's anything
interest in there.
Speaker 6 (50:59):
Yeah, card round it's like twenty and three to the
under or something.
Speaker 1 (51:03):
It's still probably because you have some of the offenses
that make it to the playoffs just aren't very good,
and I would think that that has something to do
with it too, and those teams get weeded out by
the time you get to the divisional round, like Pittsburgh
is a good example. That game should have gone over
last night, but Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh's ineptitude on offense is what
held it below the total.
Speaker 4 (51:25):
Yeah, anything else for Evan before we cut them loose.
Speaker 3 (51:30):
Is there any major red flags that you don't think
people are talking about that we should be aware of.
Speaker 4 (51:37):
Great question.
Speaker 8 (51:39):
I mean I will say this so and stuck. You
kind of alluded to it.
Speaker 7 (51:42):
Teams win as an underdog wildcard round are eight and
thirty straight up in the divisional round. So when is
an underdog in the wildcard round? Usually difficult to repeat that.
Since twenty eleven they are three and twenty two. So
that's San Francisco, Buffalo, and Chicago. So just a difficult
spot to do it again.
Speaker 4 (52:02):
Okay, I'll check it out.
Speaker 6 (52:03):
I think I also had that I'm really looking forward
to is in the NFC. I mean, it's weird, it's crazy.
Speaker 5 (52:07):
We have three NFC West teams out of the the
NFC West and the Bears. By the way, I bet
the Cardinals to win that division before the year, so, uh,
what a bet? We got three teams left in the
division around I bet the one that didn't make the
playoffs to win the division. But the NFC coaches are awesome.
(52:30):
You have Ben Johnson versus McVeigh, Shanahan versus McDonald and
like coaching in the playoffs and just coming up with
you know, schematic wrinkles new like, that's what decides these
games that are close. So in the NFC, these coaches
(52:51):
that are left, I can't wait to just see what
they come up with.
Speaker 8 (52:55):
And to answer your question, grab it.
Speaker 7 (52:57):
So fifty seven wild card unders out yours divisionals thirty
seven and thirty three really comes back to even.
Speaker 4 (53:04):
Yeah, yeah, that's not playable based on that. Thanks so much, Evan.
Speaker 1 (53:07):
Go and check out the primary Action Network dot com
or on the Action Network app. That'll do it for
today's episode special thanks to our producers David Paine and
Gifford Gold.
Speaker 4 (53:15):
The Favorites. We'll be back on Thursday right here.
Speaker 1 (53:19):
On the Action Network YouTube page where we talk divisional round,
best bets, more information on these injuries, and some solidified plays.
Two Kings and a Queen Parlay will nominate those as well.
We'll see you next time here on the Favorites presented
by Draft King to the Crown is yours.
Speaker 2 (53:45):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 4 (53:49):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.
Speaker 2 (53:52):
Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred Gambler
Hosts And Creators
Chad Millman
Simon Hunter
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Betrayal Season 5
Saskia Inwood woke up one morning, knowing her life would never be the same. The night before, she learned the unimaginable – that the husband she knew in the light of day was a different person after dark. This season unpacks Saskia’s discovery of her husband’s secret life and her fight to bring him to justice. Along the way, we expose a crime that is just coming to light. This is also a story about the myth of the “perfect victim:” who gets believed, who gets doubted, and why. We follow Saskia as she works to reclaim her body, her voice, and her life. If you would like to reach out to the Betrayal Team, email us at betrayalpod@gmail.com. Follow us on Instagram @betrayalpod and @glasspodcasts. Please join our Substack for additional exclusive content, curated book recommendations, and community discussions. Sign up FREE by clicking this link Beyond Betrayal Substack. Join our community dedicated to truth, resilience, and healing. Your voice matters! Be a part of our Betrayal journey on Substack.