January 12, 2026 • 52 mins
The Favorites is back to recap the NFL Wild Card Weekend slate! It's a crossover episode with our sister show, The Action Network Podcast! Action Network NFL experts Stuckey and Evan Abrams team up to discuss the good, the bad, the ugly and the absolutely wild from the weekend. From coin-flip games to more coin-flip games, the guys get into it all! Plus, a quick look at Monday Night Football and Brandon Anderson stops by for his Hot Read plays for the Divisional round. We'll be back on Tuesday for more NFL betting content right here on The Favorites!
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
We're also on the Action Hour podcast feed.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
If you are listening to us there, it is a
crossover episode wherever you're listening or watching. Thank you for
tuning in. I'm your host, Devin Abrams and I am
joined by the one and only Stucky for our NFL
recap show for Wildcard weekend. Just a ridiculous, ridiculous weekend
of five great games. Obviously, still have Houston and Pittsburgh
coming up on Monday night, and we will touch on that.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
A little bit later.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
We also have Brandon Anderson's hot read before we get
out of here, so.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
We'll get his opinion too.
Speaker 1 (00:42):
But before we get started, I will just give you
exactly what I just tweeted out, which is we see
some opening lines for the Divisional Round and it looks
like Bill's Broncos kind of going a little bit between.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
I see the Bill's favorite in some of those spots.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
If they were to close as a favorite in Denver,
it would be the fourth time in the last forty
years we had seen a Divisional round team off of
a buy at.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Home close as an underdog. And I can read it
right now the last would have been.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
The Eagles in twenty eighteen against the Falcons, the Niners
in twenty twelve, and the Saints and then the Panthers
ninety six ninety seven, and in all three of those positions,
the home team came away with the win. So we
will see kind of how the market puts together the
spread in that one over the next week. But aside
(01:30):
from that stuck, before we get into Chargers Patriots.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
What a weekend, man, what's your thoughts on everything?
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Yeah? Crazy weekend. I got rinsed. Sadly, I had I
went one in four, some bad calls and some bad breaks.
I mean I had the Packers as a dog, which
was which was something I thought I was going to
push at worst. Yeah, after at the end, but the
missed deck, two miss field goals and missed extra point.
(01:57):
The two point conversion to play at the game was
the fourth and eight that Caleb got. If he doesn't
convert that fourth and eighth, the game is over. They
were down two possessions at the time they scored get
the two point conversion, and yeah, I mean McManus was
a disaster for them. But credit to the Bears. They
were this second team in NFL history to score twenty
(02:17):
five plus points in the fourth quarter or overtime of
a playoff game to overcome a fifteen plus point deficit.
It was them and the Patriots and the Super Bowl
against the Falcons. I lost money on both Patriots Falcons.
One of my biggest pets of all ever that I
that I lost. So that was I mean, the Bears
outscored in twenty five to six in the fourth quarter.
(02:38):
That was just the Bears games all year. It was
just it was like a micro cosm of the Bears
season in one game. And then the Packers in a
sense too with some of the losses they suffered. But
the Bears, they're never dead and they found a way.
But like the McManus kicks were so big because even
if you make like you make the extra point, can
(03:00):
kick the field goal at the end, you know, the
field goals earlier in the game. So, uh yeah, that
was just an incredible game, by the way, the most
lead changes we've ever seen in a single round of
the postseason already we still have one game to go.
Uh that was I mean the first three, the first
three games that we saw the winner was trailing with
(03:21):
two minutes to go. So yeah, just wild games. And
look in the playoffs when it's bet when it comes
to betting, or you know, just whoever wins these games.
Out right, the margins are thin, especially this year. Everything
is so wide open that you like go back. I
also had that one of the other bad breaks of that,
I had the Jags first half, so Lawrence's thigh goes
(03:44):
down at you know, the six. They get no points
out of that. And then the miskick at the end
of the first half by an all Pro kicker. That
kick was massive, obviously, I mean the game was a
three point game, but those things, those little things are
so magnified in the playoffs. So yeah, I thought any
(04:05):
of the games could have went anyway. The Panthers were
super surprising. I did not expect their offense to look
that well. Ide under that it was a terrible call.
And then my worst call week had is I had
the Chargers. I mean, the Patriots were dominant in that game.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Drake may was.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
I thought he had a pretty bad game. He could
have had like three or four turnovers, but he used
his legs more effectively. He hit the one big throwdown
field and on a side by side basis he looked
like an All Pro compared to Herbert. I mean Herbert.
Speaker 4 (04:35):
Look.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
I don't like to label these things for small sample
size because it's only been three starts, Like you know,
the playoff Herbert thing, and he had no help. The
offensive line was really poor. I thought the Patriots had
a really good game plan. They just couldn't handle their stunts,
their blitzes, and they were just bringing pressure. But Herbert
also played really poorly. He looked like the first time
(04:57):
starting quarterback. He looked like a rookie. I mean, he
was flow ustered, he missed some opportunities to scramble, he
missed some open throws, and then he was just inaccurate.
I get that he was under pressure and under fire,
especially late in the game once the Patriots built that lead,
but there were some opportunities there. I also thought hardball
the whole staff was extremely disapointed. I thought they got
significantly out coached. You went into that game, by the way,
(05:19):
you had a buy last week, so you basically had
two weeks. They took a buy, they had two weeks
to come up with game plans to make up for
the deficiencies that you knew. You had on the offensive line.
Did you not think that the Patriots were gonna blitz
and stunt and there was? It just seemed like there was.
I don't know what their game plan was. I don't
know what the offensive philosophy going into that game was.
(05:41):
And then you had hardball early on in the game.
He goes for it on fourth and goal at the two,
he doesn't get it, and then he has fourth and
goal at the two again and kicks a field goal.
I hate when coaches do that. You're the underdog on
the road. You were aggressed the first time. If you
thought it was just gonna be a field goal game,
then kick it both times. But he went for the
first time. Don't get scared just because you didn't get it.
But those were two huge sequences. And the Patriots, whose
(06:03):
red zone defense was the worst in the league this year,
Chargers have struggled in the red zone is their offense.
Patriots defense won that battle. I hope they were that
they had the most convincing win of any of the
five games.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Yeah, I mean not hard to have a convincing win
when it felt like it came down to the wire
and all of them this was I thought this was
gonna be a closer game tonight as well.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
I mean, three points ain't gonna do it.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
And of course you mentioned it, like if you're not
gonna go for it, I mean, if you're gonna go
for it at first, you gotta go for it again.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Absolutely ridiculous, like it's part of your.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
Game plan, like you got to figure out one way
or the other, either I need points or I don't.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
But you're right now.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
I'll go game by game here. We can go very
quickly since obviously we're going over a bunch here. But
New England won the game sixteen thirteen, covered the three
and a half at home total under forty five and
a half. Just simply a dominant performance from New England's defense.
I mean, aside from that, I think, like you said,
May played okay, but everyone's gonna talk about probably two things.
Charger's defense probably played as best as they could think
(06:57):
the offensive line let them down. Herbert hit seven eight
nine times in this game, which was on par for
everything we've seen from them this season. And I mean
just kind of looked like a Rabel defense in this game.
And coming up you've got Houston and Pittsburgh. I think
they'd probably like to see Pittsburgh, would be my guess
based off just you know, trying to see another defense
in that sense. But either way, kind of intriguing though,
(07:20):
any thoughts early on that New England game.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
Depending on opponent, I mean, you can kind of have
a similar game plan against sure, right, you have you
have Stroud, who struggles against the Blitz, Rogers who struggles
against pressure to you know, not the most reliable offensive lines.
So you know, I still have questions about this Patriots defense.
(07:44):
It's just like, who have they faced all year? Right, Like, yeah,
they faced Josh Allen got cooked and that's basically the
only and then they did. You have to give him
credit for just completely bottling up Herbert, but again, the
state of that offensive line, But it might be the
same story next week against either one of those opponents.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
You know, start, did Christian Gonzalez come back, So that's
a major concern.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Yet he was one of the things, like the Chargers
receivers were non existent. I mean, the best the only
guy that I heard his name the entire besides Herbert
getting hit was Vdal. He like he picked up that fumble,
ran for it. A couple of pat but who who
(08:30):
on the Chargers offense? Did you hear their name called?
Speaker 4 (08:33):
Like?
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Also, I mean, to be clear, a lot of people
talking about this, but they disguised the O'marian Hampton injury
a lot more than they probably should have, because it
honestly looked like he shouldn't have even played in the game,
and there should have been some designation. And we had
heard about ankle this and that he had a little
bit of a boot on it and basically shouldn't have
been out. There was the reason Herbert was scrambling on
over the place, and obviously Vidal played a ton of snaps.
(08:55):
But all right, let's keep rolling.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
Here, Padridson. You want to see the Steelers though, because
that's fair. I mean, look, the Steelers are three point
home dogs against the Texans. The Steelers, you can hit,
you can get explosives on them. That's something the Chargers
do take away, and they did for the most part today.
But yeah, I think that the Patriots should feel good
regardless of who they play. But the Texans, I think
(09:17):
would be a stiffer test defensively.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
I agree.
Speaker 3 (09:21):
All right, rematch, by the way, rematch earlier the season
with the Patriots the Steelers did go into New England
and beat the Patriots, but the Patriots dominated that game.
It was a typical voodoo Steelers win. I think the
Patriots turned it over five times. The Patriots kept getting
down to like the two and not scoring. It was
pretty crazy. So yeah, I think the Patriots will be
(09:43):
deserve his favorites at home against either.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
All right, let's keep rolling here.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
Buffalo Jackson will Buffalo wins twenty seven to twenty four,
one and a half point road Dogs total under fifty
one and a half, fifty two and a half.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
But right by the hook.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
I mean, I think you and I would mention this,
and you obviously had Jack's first half, but Buffalo's probably
started a little bit faster than maybe we had assumed,
even though it included like two punts of fumble, Like,
it wasn't exactly amazing offense in the first half, but
got the job done. But to me, it just turned
into kind of an everything Josh Allen game. A ton
of passing, running all over the place. But the Jags
(10:16):
rush defense did their job, like Cook did nothing. Fifteen
to forty six, just both around three yards per rush.
It was just other things that got them beat. I mean,
Buffalo went nine to sixteen on third down fourth down, definitely,
and you had mentioned it with the Caleb Williams throw,
But that back foot throw from Josh on first and
ten cooks ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
I mean, that's.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Those two throws like win football games. And when you're
talking about the margins being that thin, But what.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
Did you see here? Anything worth note?
Speaker 3 (10:46):
Yeah, I mean I don't think the Bills in the
first half were great. I mean the Jags were one
and a half yards per played better. The Bills had
one good drive in the whole first half, but it
was a great it was the meaningful drive. It was
ninety four yards after Trevor Lawrence's shin went huge swing
in that game, and then they kicked a fifty yard
field goal off of an interception. But those are the margins, Prater.
(11:09):
Your banged up kicker made a fifty plus yarder and
the Jags all Pro kicker who made twenty in a row,
missed a fifty plus yarder, and then in the red
zone you didn't get your fourth down, came up with
no points. The Bills were amazing on fourth downs, so
I thought, like just watching that game, the Jags were
the better team on a play by play basis, like
(11:30):
they completely stopped the run. They had way more success
running the ball, but the Bills had Josh Allen and
that was ultimately the difference. He played amazing because he
had no help from his run game they usually do.
And then the second half they had to open it
up and asked him to go win it, and he did.
I also thought in the first half the Jags really
really missed Parker Washington. He was he was amazing in
(11:54):
the second half. He was amazing in the second half
of the year, and he missed most of the first half.
I am shot. I mean, it's the playoffs, like there's
I guess there's there's no such thing as concussions for
a lot of teams. I'm shock that he came back
after what I saw. But he was great in the
second half. Did he finished for I think he finished
with over one hundred yards and so they missed him
(12:16):
in the first half. They missed some opportunities. But yeah,
really a coin foot game, like Jaggs, here's where this again,
where the margins are small. I think mcdermomy made a
huge mistake that Josh Allen toush push It's funny that
they used the Toush push so effectively and they were
(12:36):
trying to get it banned in the offseason. I believe
they were one of the teams that voted against it,
and they use it now effectively in the Eagles, like
they went four of like their last eleven on the
touch push. But there's a minute ten left at the
one on first in goal and the Jags have no timeouts.
(12:58):
I one hundred percent of the time, snap and fall down,
or snap and taken me one pc of the time,
and then you have three that you then you run
forty seconds off the clock. There was like a minut five.
Let there would have been twenty seconds left. You have
your timeouts, but you don't even need it. You have
(13:19):
three more Josh Allen tush pushes to get in and
then there's the Jags are done. Instead you went you
scored on the first play. Now it didn't matter because
Lawrence threw a pick. But what you shouldn't base things
off of the results. It's about the process. You could
say like, look, just score that, just get the points.
(13:40):
Things can happen. You can fumble, I get it. But
I think in the long run, the smart move there
was to not score on first down with them not
having any timeouts and then score.
Speaker 4 (13:49):
Now.
Speaker 3 (13:49):
I didn't bite the bills, but just something worth voting
because we've seen McDermott and final minutes of playoff games
go sideways before. But just an incredible game and it
was Josh and Josh. You have to like Alan got
beat up in that game too. I mean he came
in with an injury to his foot. He you know here,
(14:11):
he had his knee twisted, he got his head hit,
his hand hit on a helmet. I mean he the
Jags defense threw everything at him and he just made
incredible throws with like who at receiver? She cared a
great day, but they kept losing receivers. They've already like
so that was all on Josh Allen had tipped to him.
Speaker 1 (14:29):
I mean they saw Mitch Trubisky warming up and Josh
is like, no chance, that's on it.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
Josh Allen going to the blue tent in the playoffs
is me rolling my eyes. They just go in there
and like give him a pat on the ass and
tell him to get back out there.
Speaker 1 (14:44):
The reason you're right, though about the toush push at
the end is because the Jaguars faked like they were
they wanted him the score correct, but they faked it
like they wanted them to look like they cared about
him scoring. And Liam Cohen even said in postgame he
was like, we let them score.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
It was the right movie.
Speaker 3 (15:00):
So that's how you know it was the wrong move
to score. The other team is trying to let you score.
So like because of that, you could have like went
to the inch yard line and kneeled it, and the
chances of you scoring again from the inch yard line
with the Josh Allen towysch Bush are way higher than
(15:22):
the Jags with a minute ten being able to go
down the field and kick a fueld goal with a
kicker who has distance from he's made, he's two for
two from sixty seven plus the rest of the NFL
and NFL history he's oh for twenty two. So like
all they had to do, they could get the midfield right.
So you start like a lot of you started the
thirty five fifteen yards you're in range. Now it worked
out for them. I'm just saying I think that was
(15:42):
the wrong move.
Speaker 1 (15:43):
Yeah, sometimes it works out and it's just the wrong move.
Speaker 2 (15:45):
And that was one of them.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
I'll live Jags by the way. He rest of the
see should be happy that they're out. It was unfortunate,
incredible year from Liam Cohen. Easily could have won that game,
easily could have made a run. It was unfortunate that
both of these teams had to play each other home
wild cobekend completely agree.
Speaker 1 (16:03):
A lot of flak is going to go to Herbert
based off his performance tonight, But I did look it up.
Trevor Lawrence's three playoff starts minus one point six EPA today,
minus three point seven in his last start, and then
plus two point five against Case, but negative completion percentage
over expected in all three starts, qbr under fifty and
all three like, he just hasn't been his best.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
In these games. And that kind I mean, he played
alright today.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
Maybe you put it on the defense, but Buffalo does
put up what twenty six, twenty seven points in this game,
so probably a stopper more there on the defense right now.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
He wasn't great, he was he was just okay, But
the pick at the end was bad. The other pick
was bad early that led to Buffalo points, and then
you have to blame him for a shin going down
just awareness. I mean, it's just him. I know it
was kind of a fluky play, but that basically took
four and a half five points on average off the board.
(16:59):
So yeah, he wasn't great, but I thought the Jags
defense played well and it was just it was just
Josh Allen was just incredible.
Speaker 1 (17:09):
You gotta ad it to ridiculous and an unfortunate miss
from Cam Little early to obviously the difference. But all right,
green Bank, Chicago, Holy mackerel. So Chicago wins a game
thirty one, twenty seven and one and a half point
home Dogs total over forty six and a half. There
is really not much to say here other than like,
if you haven't watched Chicago all year, this is exactly
what you got. And then from Green Bay's perspective, like
(17:31):
they've lost five straight after this one, they have not
looked the same in you know, basically without Micah Parsons.
But I mean, when you talk about the play calling
from Laflour in the second half, they attempted seven runs
in the second half of twenty one three was minus
two to one six zero one zero and zero first
four drives in the second half.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
They gained nine total yards.
Speaker 1 (17:52):
And I think the worst part about it was they
knocked off like four minutes on the clock in total
in those four drives, so he just really got shit
before they even scored a touchdown in the second half
and really got something going. It was already twenty one
sixteen and it was a ballgame, so it just you
had kind of ruined the entire lead based off of
your play calling, and you could just see it like
(18:14):
after they got up, they were just allowing Chicago to
do kind of what they wanted and stick around, and
that honestly ended up being the problem. And you mentioned
that the fourth and eighth throw to Rome is just,
I mean, something you will see forever in Chicago, no
matter what happens, because it was just that unreal of
a throw from a guy that talented and also very
cool that he looked like Michael Jordan in the middle
of the air, but either way, absolutely ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
So what do you make from Green Bay Chicago?
Speaker 3 (18:40):
Yeah, I mean the Green Bay injuries, I think that
Cod there did. I mean, like Cooper, they had some
more offensive line injuries, Doc Tom not starting although they
were up twenty one three, missed a fuel go at
the end of that, they should be up twenty four
to three. You have to win that game. And they're
up twenty one six in the fourth quarter, like you
have to win that game no matter what, and it
(19:02):
just it just was your your typical Bears game. Also
another underrated play obviously the fourth and eight and if
they didn't call the false start, the snap goes over
the head before then and the game is over. The
fourth and eight is incredible throw by Kleb. Then they
score a touchdown, they get the two point conversion, slept
on conversion because if you don't get that the Packers
(19:24):
at the end. Now, the Packers missed the field goal
after that, but then they had the ball at the
very end of the game at the Bears twenty timeout
management wasn't great for the Force. They had no timeouts left,
there was a runoff. It was a mess. But if
the if there were so many things that could have
happened where the Packers could have kick the game winning
field and now they probably would have missed it again. But
(19:45):
they missed two field goals, an extra point, and the
Bears got a two point conversion not after nine points.
Of those hidden points and all of those cumulatively led
to a four point lead. If one of those things
goes the other way, the Packers are kicking a feel
a lot of tie or to take the order to win.
(20:06):
Instead they have to throw up a hail Mary. And
at the end they had their back up right tackle,
their third string center, and their backup left tackle in
the game. But I did think that Dennis Allen. I
thought that the four play calling wasn't great, but I
thought that Dennis allen adjustments on defense and the additional
some of the pressure packages that he was bringing I
(20:29):
thought were very nice in the second half, because that's
a bad defense. But it just felt like a choke
and it just felt like every Bears game all this year.
I mean, that's their seventh win this year, NFL record,
seventh win when trailing with under two minutes to go,
and as someone who had to, I had the Packers
plus one now again, I thought I was gonna push
(20:50):
it worse to losing that game is a nightmare. But
the fourth and eight, once they got that, I said,
I'm in trouble. I would have sale the game was
over if they didn't convert that. But that was the
play of the game.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
Seriously, I mean, that play is just unbelievable when you
look at back at it, especially almost getting sacked, like
throwing an almost mid air, just absolutely ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (21:14):
The one thing.
Speaker 3 (21:15):
Packers had just scored a touchdown to go up twenty
seven to sixteen with six to go, and like, now
there's what there was like five to go, fourth and
eight at midfield. You don't get that it's over. The
game's over. So given the circumstances, the stage, and then
just how incredible that throw you have to hat tip
(21:38):
Caleb Williams. Now the Bears get I mean, how based
on how everything broke, it's pretty crazy that the Seahawks
were they were, It looked like they were going to
get the Packers, and the Packers had a bunch more injuries,
and then the Bears win. So then you're a Seahawks fan,
(22:01):
you say, shit, we gotta play the Rams. And then
the Eagles get upset at home, which there's not a
lot of people including myself, saw happening, and now they
get the forty nine ers. So it went from oh,
we're getting the Packers for sure up twenty one, twenty
one to three, to oh god, we're getting the Rams
(22:23):
to Okay, we're getting the forty nine ers, So what
roller coaster promotions for Seahawks fans despite not.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
Playing seriously, absolutely unreal to go back and forth and
now Seattle looks like they're a seven and a half
point favorite against the Niners and rams are Land three
and a half at the moment in Chicago.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
So interesting lines.
Speaker 3 (22:42):
On the least touchdown swing Sewks serious the Eagles result,
you would go from a toss up game probably to
somewhere round of pick I mean, now a touchdown plus
favor crazy.
Speaker 2 (22:58):
All right, let's do that in San Francisco Philly game. Quick.
Speaker 1 (23:00):
So San Francisco does end up winning twenty three nineteen
five and a half point road dogs total under forty
four and a half.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
I thought this one.
Speaker 1 (23:06):
This line is fantastic, So from Shield Capatia, who used
to work with me at ESPN. Niners produced the highest
single game offensive success rate against the Eagles since Fangio
became their DC. It was just the perfect game plan
for what Shanahan put together here. San Francisco defense pretty
much showed up here with their six seventh eighth linebackers
out there, but really it was probably just an inept
(23:28):
Philly offensive game. I mean Hurts his fifteen incompletions just
one hundred and sixty eight yards passing Rady under eighty
QBR of forty and to me, this is what probably
gets at the most. So late passdowns he was at
thirty one percent success rate and passing to Davanta Goddard,
Barkley and aj he went eighteen of thirty one, So
(23:49):
that's thirteen incompletions, a lot off target, a lot in
pass breaks to those guys. And this one was the
best which Juwan Jennings had more completed passes fifteen plus
yards air then Jalen Hurts did, who went oh for
five just absolutely terrible from my opinion on the offensive
side of the ball. That really let them up because
Saquan had a good game. But what do you make
(24:10):
of this one?
Speaker 3 (24:12):
Yes, one thing I got right this weekend was the
under which I thought, which I thought was gonna get
ruined at the end of the toast. Yeah, I thought
the Eagles were going down and scoring. But this is
again a microcosm of the year for the Philadelphia Eagles,
and even playing this beat up and already bad forty
nine Ers defense that were down their top four linebackers.
(24:34):
They score, they go on to sixteen play ninety four
yard nine minute drive to golf thirteen to seven midway
through the second quarter, and then from on their next three, four, five,
Their next five drives twenty seven plays for twenty six yards,
(24:58):
taking them midway through the fourth. That was the Eagles
offense all year, no matter who they were playing, they
would go these long stretches where they couldn't do anything.
I mean, it is and like it to play calling
is bad. We know Patoola is bad. It's not creative.
It's just hitch routes. And some of the runs were
(25:20):
But the biggest thing is their offensive line is so
much like how many times did you see Barkley who
still if you actually just give them space, he will
go for ten to fifteen plus yards. How many times
all year including today was Barkley hit as soon as
you're handing the ball off hit stuffed in the backfield.
I mean they were thirtieth in the NFL and stuff right.
Obviously no Lane Johnson today hurt. Their offense is night
(25:43):
and day with him. But this was it kind of
just summed up the Eagle season with their offense and
the droughts that they went on the u have Siriani
blowing up on the sidelines with AJ Brown and then
AJ Brown doesn't catch a pass. A couple dropped the
whole rest of the way. The AJ Brown discourse and
(26:04):
the Sirianni Patuila discourse on WIP and what is the
ninety seventy five whatever the radio station is for the
next couple of weeks, It's going to be interesting in Philly.
But yeah, I was shocked at the Niners with and
even after losing Kittle. Yeah, and they lost the turnover
(26:24):
battle to nothing. Perty had two bad picks, But I
was shot that they were able to push the ball
down the field and hit explosives on this Eagles defense
in twenty five to thirty mile an hour wins. They
had a bunch. I mean, DeMarcus Robinson had a day.
He went off and look, everyone knew the Eagles offense
(26:47):
had issues. Everyone knew Jake Elliott had a down year.
And by the way, I know san Fran missed an
extra point, but Elliott's missed extra point. You had that
in you can kick a field goal late. Like these
little things in the playoffs make such a difference. But
I would be remiss if I didn't give you gave
Shanahan credit. I'll look at it from the other side.
(27:11):
The Eagles defense deserves criticism here. This was the unit
that's carried them all year and you're going up against
you know, I mean, Fanjo has own Shannah in the
past four head to head meetings. He's averaged ten and
a half points per game, never cleared fifteen. And the
forty nine ers, even after losing Kittle, there's no Ricky Piersoll.
(27:31):
They gained three hundred and sixty one yards six point
two yards per play, and there was no run game
to speak of, and there was thirty mile an hour
wins and you have the lead late kick a field goal.
I'll off have an interception, and you let them go
ten plays sixty six yards and score a touchdown that
(27:54):
you cannot let them. At worst, you have to hold
them to a field goal there. But credit to forty
nine ers, the Eagles defense, they were great all year.
They do deserve blame for that performance today because it
wasn't great. So yeah, credit to the forty nine ers
is an all I Sawah was great. They didn't allow
the explosives there. There was I mean, Eric Hendricks made
(28:17):
the made he deflected the game winning pass, and like, yeah,
there was the toola can't be back?
Speaker 2 (28:26):
You have?
Speaker 3 (28:26):
This roster has way too much talent to be coordinated
like that. I don't even know, Well Siriani be back,
I don't know, I mean he does he yet? The
Eagles are ruthless. They have a very good organization, a
very good GM. They're run very well. Yeah, like is
(28:46):
he one hundred percent?
Speaker 1 (28:47):
This is a loss that just can't happen, right, I
mean like even watching this game, Phillies up, three, Phillies
up six, whatever it was, it was like, Okay, they're
gonna do enough to win this and we're going to
talk the entire week about how it didn't look good
but they want anyway. And San Francisco was like screw that,
Like we're honestly just gonna take this game, no matter
who's on the field.
Speaker 2 (29:05):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (29:05):
I kind of had forgetten, like forgotten and then blanked
out about the Kittle thing, but I mean not, I
mean adding the Kittle injury to everything else they were
going through and then they still come out on top.
Just honestly, probably one of those shocks. I mean if
Carolina had one, which we'll talk about in a second.
Obviously more shocking, but this was it. I mean, this
was the craziest. I couldn't have even imagined this with
(29:26):
all the injuries. I line got up to six middle
of the week, close at five and a half, but
wild nonetheless, And the thing was San Francisco also gave
them two turnovers, So I mean, well, yeah, two nothing.
The thing that's crazy is and I just looked, I
looked this up before we came on. Siriani is now
lost four straight when the opponent has two plus turnovers.
He was twenty five and two prior to that. So,
(29:47):
I mean, lately it just no matter what happens, close
game and Philly's offense doesn't come through.
Speaker 3 (29:52):
But shock, there's like these the Hurts never turns it over, right,
they don't They the Eagles never turn sometimes. That's like
I feel like it's bad in a way because they
just they don't take risks, right, They're like it's just
these how many times on second and long and sometimes
on third long where they're running the ball.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
To lose.
Speaker 3 (30:16):
Yeah, they're just playing to like pull these games out
by a field goal. Bear, And like that's tough to do.
They just need a whole new offensive of off score
in a new philosophy.
Speaker 1 (30:28):
It's like, this is like not making the playoffs, honestly,
like it pretty much is going to be looked at
very similarly to lose a game as like a six
point favorite at home to a team that's the walking dead.
Speaker 3 (30:38):
All right, I will say the line news something that. Look,
the best thing you can do betting the NFL, and
even in the playoffs, where lines are even more efficient,
is get the best of the number. It's the best
thing you can do. Now, this weekend didn't really work out.
Didn't work out for me in particular. I could think
of Packers, I add the Panthers under forty nine Ers
(30:58):
under least worked out. But if you had the Jags,
I mean Jags took real money. Jags at some sharp
shops closed two and a half, opened a dog, and
then the Eagles they were sitting three and a half close.
I think it closed five and a half, right there, Yeah,
close five and a half linked with Lane Johnson Autrent
(31:21):
Williams in. But you beat that line over the long run.
That's gonna work out with this week for some of
the bigger line moves didn't work out, but short sample
size can overreact, all.
Speaker 1 (31:34):
Right, Speaking of lines and craziness, Rams beat the point
Panthers thirty four to thirty one. They close a ten
point road favorites total over forty five. So yeah, Carolina
does close plus ten time for the biggest home dog
in playoff history. But listen, Carolina was inside or pushing
the number of the entire game, the entire game. So
I mean there was a chance for the Rams to
(31:55):
go up. You know, it could have been it could
have been thirteen, that could have been sick teen or seventeen.
But there was an opportunity there that kind of blow
the game away, and they almost really blew this one.
I mean seriously, a few opportunities there late in the
game where it could have definitely gone Carolina's way, especially
after that late turnover. I will say this home dog's
(32:15):
of four plus and down nine to zero against the
spread last fifty years in the playoffs. We will see
if the Bears get there. Pretty crazy for a two
seed home dog in the divisional round. But nonetheless, all
I really have to say is like Bryce Young played formidable,
Like the numbers were all right, He had.
Speaker 2 (32:32):
A positive EPA.
Speaker 1 (32:33):
But he goes four of seventeen passing under pressure, just
not something you can do in something typical to what
Bryce Young usually does. And then you look at the
other side, Stafford, three touchdowns, no picks, two hundred and
forty four yards in a clean pocket and under pressure
he goes five to thirteen with an interception and what
you would have expected thirty one targets to Pooka and DeVante.
(32:55):
So going to the people he trusts in this one.
Speaker 3 (32:58):
Yeah, I was at the game was played out nothing
like I thought it would. Carolina came out throwing. I
thought they were going to try to run, control the clock,
shorten the game. Now maybe because they got behind that
all changed. But yeah, I mean Young threw the ball
forty times, he only ran it I think twenty now
they didn't have much success running it. I thought Quentin Lake,
(33:19):
who returned from injury, had a really bad game. He's
a good player, and I thought it was going to
help the defense. But that looked like there was some
rust and the speed wasn't there. And I mean Davante
missing time, he didn't look great. I mean when he
had five catches, he was targeted. How many times. Was
he targeted a lot fourteen times? Yeah? So Nikoua was incredible. Stafford,
(33:44):
I thought he struggled a bit against again his old coordinator,
these these coverages where they disguise and shift post snap,
these mass coverages. He struggled a bit again, But in
the end they recovered and they put that drive together
at the end of the game. Seven plays, seventy one yards,
(34:06):
incredible throw by Stafford down the sidelines and they got
a Yeah, that was crazy. So I was shocked at
the Fantas scored thirty one the first time in won,
but that was on you know, a pick six, a
couple of fourth down busted plays. I did not think
they were going to get to thirty one this time around.
(34:26):
So I'm I'm not sure what the make of the Rams.
In short, like I fought like a month ago, this
is a team. If you said who's winning the Super Bowl,
I would have confidently said, all right, I'm gonna pick
the Rams. And then you know, down they're up. They're dominating.
The Seahawks look like they're poised to get the one seed.
(34:48):
They melt away that game they lose in Atlanta. They
don't look great, and you know, wanting to try for
the first two and a half quarters against the Cardinals,
and they eat this game out against Carolina. I got
to dig more into the Rams on what's going on
because it hasn't looked pretty for the last month.
Speaker 1 (35:06):
Anow, they're lay in three and a half or four
in the Chicago team who maybe won't be there in
the first half, but you know they will be there
in the second.
Speaker 2 (35:13):
The two things I.
Speaker 3 (35:14):
Set the Bears when they go down seventeen.
Speaker 1 (35:17):
The two things I saw from the Rams in this
game that I guess are kind of puzzling. So they
get nine penalties and this is coming from the least
penalized team in the NFL during the season.
Speaker 3 (35:26):
The penalized team in five years.
Speaker 1 (35:28):
Yeah, they had twelve percent of their entire regular season
penalties in this game. I mean that that is how crazy,
and I guess undisciplined to a tee they were in
this one and the other This is the other one,
and you had mentioned it, but Carolina going four to
four in the red zone and Cocher and Tech going
fourteen of two point fifteen, that's a problem. And you
had mentioned Lake, but their secondary they're the past players.
Speaker 2 (35:52):
They allow.
Speaker 1 (35:53):
To me, that's like part of the issue, and you're
going up against I'm gonna call them the Magician, but
right now that's kind of what Caleb's doing. So I mean,
between Burden and Rome getting another week of healthy coming
off of this one, and I just does on DJ Moore,
there's a lot of options there for Chicago. I think
it's a little bit of a worry.
Speaker 3 (36:09):
Yeah, the Rams secondary by far is the most questionable
aspect of their team and what ultimately might hold them
back for a set boll. I mean going back to
let's start the November thirtieth when they played the Panthers,
they gave up thirty one and lost. They played the
Cardinals with like they were a backup team, but the
(36:31):
Cardinals were moving the ball in that game, like throwing
the ball as well. They gave up. Then they gave
up thirty four to the Lions, thirty eight to the Seahawks,
twenty seven to the Falcons in a loss, and then
you know, they play the backup Cardinals again, Cardinals are
moving the ball in that game too, and then thirty
one to the Panthers. So like this defense over the
last month and a half has regularly given up thirty
(36:53):
one to thirty three thirty eight points sets that and
the Bears have the talent to take it. We'll just
see how far behind they get first.
Speaker 2 (37:02):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (37:03):
Crazy, Well that was Wildcard weekend. Here's your weekly reminder
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Speaker 2 (38:27):
Monday night football time.
Speaker 1 (38:28):
So right now, if I look at the board, it
is Texans minus three sitting at minus one zh five,
so that seems to be coming down a bit thirty
eight and a half. Which the fun thing about thirty
eight and a half. It is the lowest playoff total
since I believe brock Osweiler Connor Cook twenty sixteen seventeen,
so we haven't seen a playoff total this low in
(38:49):
some time. But stuck, I will leave it to you, like,
what do you think about this game? I have a
pick or two and some trends, but what do you
make of this one?
Speaker 3 (38:59):
I mean, I think the line. I think it like
taking out all the three and a half on the
Steelers made sense. The low scoring game home dog Rogers
can get the ball out quick to neutralize some of
that Texans pressure. The issue is going to be is
if they don't think it's going to be hard to
maintain drives right, So like if you could have a
(39:21):
couple first downs, but then if you have if you're
incomplete on first run for two on second on those
third and longs. Rogers against that pressure, and he's been
bad against pressure year, it's not going to go well.
On the other end, Stroud has been really bad against
the blitz. The Steelers defense is getting healthier. You never
know what you're gonna get from Steelers defense. So like
some weeks they look incredible, some weeks it looks broken.
(39:43):
There's gonna be some bus which adds some variants here.
But they also tend to have those splash plays from
their defensive line. The strip sacks, the interceptions, how many
of those can they get will probably go a long
way in determining this game. You know, it's also we'll
see how you know Stroud and an indoor team going
to outdoors and freezing cold temperatures. That's at least worth noting.
(40:07):
I think if you want to bet this game, I
don't have anything right now, but this game is on Monday,
you're gonna have lines. How you know you already have
the Seahawks, Niners, line out the Rams Bears if you
like something next week. I think the Steelers are a
good teaser piece to pair with, you know, say, getting
(40:27):
Seattle from seven and a half to one and a half.
It's just it's just an ideal teaser piece. The total
is thirty eight and a half. I know it's not
the line is that two and a half, But it's
a juice three, you know, so you're crossing three four
six seven. So yeah, I think the Steelers teaser piece
is a good look. But this will probably come down
(40:49):
to which defense can force the more critical turnover because
this one should be tight throughout.
Speaker 2 (40:58):
Yeah. I mean, if I had to pick a winner,
I like Houston.
Speaker 1 (41:00):
But I think the line's just right and I'm not
comfortable really laying three three and a half with a
three eight and a half total, so I buy that.
The one thing I think is interesting is obviously you
get DK Metcalf back in the game. But if you've
watched any Steelers games this year, the chemistry between Metcalf
and Rodgers is pretty much zero. Like I feel like
he is not his favorite target. Now will he force
it there? Like he tends to just throw to his
(41:22):
guys mvs or the tight ends.
Speaker 2 (41:25):
Like it's just Rogers is set in his ways.
Speaker 1 (41:27):
So it'll be interesting to me how Metcalf kind of
gets brought back into the picture after two plus weeks
of them trying to deal without him, So that to
me is interesting.
Speaker 3 (41:38):
Yeah, I don't think. I don't think Metcalf being back
is as important in some matchups. You know, he could
He's worth a couple of points of day, sure, Like,
but here Uf Stingley, who can just man up against him?
Because a lot of times you even in the red
zone right, you'll see like a safety you know, kind
(41:59):
of hovering on his side, cheating decided it might open
up some other things. But the Texans, you know, with
their corners, they can trust Stingley. By the way, Leonora
followed AJ Brown, he never followed all year, and he
followed A J. Brown today. I don't they just give
him on my mind, he didn't follow JSN all year.
I'm curious to see if that they changed that next week.
But yeah, so he's not as important, but he does
(42:21):
have the big play capability, So like he does have
the chance of like taking a slant seventy yards right,
whereas no one else on the Steelers does. So he
gives you a little bit more upside. But in this
particular matchup, I don't think he's as big as he
would be compared to others.
Speaker 1 (42:39):
And you would mentioned this Stroud thing. I think it
is worth noting. I mean, he's two and oh straight
up and against the spread at home in the playoffs,
zero and two on the road and those you know,
you hear quarterback stats and you're like, I need more context. Well,
I mean on those two road games, they've scored twenty
four total points, scoring fourteen or less in both games.
Speaker 2 (42:56):
You don't you don't need much more contact than that.
Speaker 1 (42:59):
So that has to change if Houston's going to be
able to produce what they need to do to win
this game. So to me, that's noteworthy. And then I
tweeted this out. It's just kind of bonkers that the
Steelers have started so.
Speaker 2 (43:09):
Slow in playoff games.
Speaker 1 (43:10):
They've been outscored seventy three to nothing in their six
game playoff losing streak in the first quarter. So I
mean they've scored seven points or less than sixty nine
straight first quarters. Like, you're gonna probably need some sort
of offense at some point. You don't want to fall
down seven, ten, thirteen, whatever. Is nothing to Houston with
that defense, So Pittsburgh got to try to change things
(43:30):
up there. So those are the things that I thought
were kind of noteworthy.
Speaker 2 (43:33):
I'll give you, just sixty.
Speaker 3 (43:35):
Nine straight without scoring more than seven points in the
first quarter is insane.
Speaker 1 (43:40):
Insane, and it's just and that's through Rudolph and all
sorts of different garbage. But nonetheless, the three things I
were looking at were I kind of like wooding marks
again in the end zone, even in a low scoring game.
If I had to pick a touchdown, that would probably
be my guy. I actually really like mvs. Over nine
and a half receaving yards. I just feel like in
(44:00):
this type of game, even with Metcalf back, he's going
to force it into the tight ends. But I also
think he's going to force it into the guys he likes,
because that's just who the hell Rodgers is so I
like that nine and a half, and I would look
at Boswell over one and a half field goals. I
don't love it in this type of game. But again,
I see Pittsburgh moving the ball up to a certain
point and then just being steinmiat and Rodgers getting sacked
(44:20):
and whatever. It ends up being in completions and then
they end up having to kick field goals. So I
don't even know what that line is. I didn't look
at the juice, but over one and a half field
goals feels like something that'll hit for Boswell. So those
are my three looks.
Speaker 3 (44:32):
I believe the Giants have the record for that record
for consecutive games without scoring more than seven points in
the first quarter, and I think it's current. I think
it's eighty. Maybe they broke it this year, but I
don't think I think it's eighty games. I'm Giants eighty
(44:53):
games without scoring.
Speaker 1 (44:57):
I have the Pittsburgh stack goes back to number of
twenty twenty two, which is a lot of time for Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2 (45:03):
In a lot of different quarterbacks.
Speaker 3 (45:04):
This one goes back to twenty twenty. O don't know. Let
me say, wow, I could be making this up.
Speaker 2 (45:11):
Even if you are it sounds impressive.
Speaker 3 (45:13):
Yeah. The New York Giants had a streak of eighty
consecutive games where they scored no more than seven points
in the first quarter. Began during the twenty twenty season
and continued until early in the twenty twenty five seasons,
so it ended earlier this year. It's the second longest
streak in NFL history. The longest is.
Speaker 2 (45:32):
Oh, you know what, it might have been russ In
like that early Cowboys game. Yes, that's a guess.
Speaker 3 (45:39):
The record is held by the Brooklyn Dodgers from nineteen
thirty to nineteen thirty seven eighty six.
Speaker 2 (45:47):
Jackie Robinson.
Speaker 1 (45:48):
All right, so if you want to tell some of
these Monday night football bets, make sure to look for
the quicks up blink in the podcast in video description
or go to Action hour dot com slash bet now now.
But finally, before we get out of here, let's hear
from Brandon Anderson and his Hot Red picks for next
week Hot Wraps seventy on ice rights ice cream Hoe.
Speaker 5 (46:12):
I'm gonna start with forty nine Ers Seahawks. Gimme the
under under forty six and a half. Typically you want
overs in the division round and usually with the Niners.
But you look a little below the surface here. Obviously,
these teams just played two weeks ago Seattle thirteen to three,
dominant win. Niners thirty six percent success rate terrible, one
hundred and seventy three yards, three points, both of those
(46:34):
there lowest since their debut game with Cal Shanahan back
in twenty seventeen. Nine first downs all game. They got
totally shut down on their money plays sand Fran number
number one, red zone number one on late downs. They
were two eleven on late downs oh of one in
the red zone that game. This is what Seattle went
out to get Mike McDonald four for these Shanahan McVay offenses,
(46:56):
Seahawks defense is awesome Number one Dvoway, top two against
the run and the pass, and importantly top seven are
better against motion play action under center, middle of the field,
all those money Shanahan areas. That is what Seattle defense best.
And it turns out that really wasn't new for the
(47:16):
Niners offense to stall. We saw it again today against
a real defense. Check out these splits. Since brock pretty
returned from injury, Niners have played four games against defenses
twentieth or worse. Four games against anyone better like twentieth
is not even good, just even league average or better.
This is including like Carolina and Cleveland, and those four
games against the bad defenses average scored the game just
(47:39):
under seventy points a game forty or fifty four percent
success rate for the Niners offense, and the other four
games again against any defense with a pulse forty percent
success rate down from fifty four. Average score of those
games not seventy anymore, try thirty thirty point three max
score of forty two. The Niners off is just not
(48:00):
scoring against top defenses. I think they got a little
bit inflated based on some of those bad matchups. Now,
obviously George Kittle is out. That's a huge loss, especially
in this matchup. Seattle is not defended tight ends that great.
Trent Williams is a question mark as always, he missed
the last game. Ricky Piersoll is an unknown. Niners offense
has just not been good enough, and Sales offense really
(48:22):
hasn't been that top notch either. Week eleven, a RAMS game,
we saw the RAMS count of exposed Seattle, and since
that game forward, Seattle went from the number one passing
offense to twenty fifths. That's bottom quarter of the league. Seattle,
even against the Niners, probably not going to hang a
huge number. They have been an under team, especially first
half thirteen and four to the under, so I will
(48:43):
probably look for a first half under as well.
Speaker 2 (48:45):
But this forty six.
Speaker 5 (48:46):
And a half, this is the same total the Niners
open against the Eagles, and I don't close forty four.
I think this goes the same direction that's already going down.
Forty seven is a key number. We're on the wrong
side of it, but I think we get towards forty four,
which is the key number down. Give me the under
forty six and a half at DraftKings, Seahawks and Niners.
And while we're here, quick second, high red, keep it
(49:09):
nice and easy. Seahawks rams money line parlay. It's Evan
odds right now. This color shot, I think that is
our NFC championship game. Let's start with the Seahawks.
Speaker 3 (49:19):
We're just there.
Speaker 5 (49:20):
This is a bet on that Mike McDonald defense. Niners
injured everywhere, all those offensive injuries, and Seattle is rested
now because they got that thirteen to three road to win.
This is what they get is the home game with
rest against this tired Niners team. I don't really want
to trust Darnold in that offense yet, but San Franz
defense should be just enough for them to get there.
(49:41):
Seattle's zero three in the red zone that game, so
probably it shouldn't have been been as close as it did.
Turn out. Seattle, when they have fans at home games,
ten straight playoff wins, third longest streak in NFL history.
I think they get an eleventh one here and host
the NFC Championship game against the Rams. This is an
easy sell high spot for the Bears, obvious letdown spot
(50:05):
emotionally after I can they won their Super Bowl right
We saw the comeback the crazy, crazy game against the Packers,
but don't forget though the first three quarters count there too.
Chicago has been totally outplayed through three quarters twice now
in the last month against the Packers, really against some
of the Packers' backups before that big finish. Bears lose
their starting left tackle, they lose their best linebacker and
(50:27):
TG Edwards. Their corners are all banged up. This is
really a good get right spot, I think for the Rams,
especially that Rams offense. I think they can name their
number against the Bears defense. Bears d by far the
weak link on the field, similar to Santa Fran in
the other game. Stafford's fingers supposedly looks fine. How gon
to count on the Rams to score? Do the Bears score?
(50:48):
They might Ben Johnson might find some answers. Rams defense
has been a little bit leaky, but you don't want
to want to shoot out against the Rams. Not with
that Bears defense. Rams didn't get the one seed, but
they didn't kind of get lucky. They get Carolina and
now this banged up Bears team rather than a road
game in a failure or something like that. This is
my Super Bowl pick, my favorite. I think they're the
(51:09):
surer win of these teams, even though they're a bit
shorter on the line. So I'll probably be back on
Rams and Alts this week. So I'm just gonna ride
the two favorites here. I think the public will as well,
especially with all.
Speaker 2 (51:19):
The injury news.
Speaker 5 (51:20):
So I think these lines do rise a little bit,
maybe towards six ish for the Rams, maybe to seven
or past for Seattle. We're getting plus one hundred on
the money line parlay. I think by game day next weekend,
maybe more like minus one twenty five one to thirty.
So let's grab a rams Seattle money line parlay at
even odds plus one hundred and called a rap. Let's
(51:42):
get to the NFC Championship.
Speaker 2 (51:44):
All righty?
Speaker 1 (51:45):
Then, thank you Brandon, as always, we appreciate it and
we miss you. That'll do it here on the Favorites
in the Action Hour podcast for our crossover NFL Wildcard
Weekend recap episode presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (51:56):
Give us a like on the YouTube video and do.
Speaker 1 (51:58):
Not forget five starts and reviews wherever and whenever you
are listening.
Speaker 2 (52:02):
We always appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (52:03):
If you haven't yet, check out our new AI clicks
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be back for Action Island right before Monday night football
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(52:25):
bets from Brandon, the six pack from Ray Bond and
Stuck Anytime, touchdowns from Jill and all of our guys,
and more on the podcast feed next week for the
divisional round.
Speaker 2 (52:34):
Thank you for listening. Good luck with all your bets,
oh Man. What a weekend.
Speaker 1 (52:47):
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Speaker 3 (52:51):
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Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
We're also on the Action Hour podcast feed.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
If you are listening to us there, it is a
crossover episode wherever you're listening or watching. Thank you for
tuning in. I'm your host, Devin Abrams and I am
joined by the one and only Stucky for our NFL
recap show for Wildcard weekend. Just a ridiculous, ridiculous weekend
of five great games. Obviously, still have Houston and Pittsburgh
coming up on Monday night, and we will touch on that.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
A little bit later.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
We also have Brandon Anderson's hot read before we get
out of here, so.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
We'll get his opinion too.
Speaker 1 (00:42):
But before we get started, I will just give you
exactly what I just tweeted out, which is we see
some opening lines for the Divisional Round and it looks
like Bill's Broncos kind of going a little bit between.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
I see the Bill's favorite in some of those spots.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
If they were to close as a favorite in Denver,
it would be the fourth time in the last forty
years we had seen a Divisional round team off of
a buy at.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Home close as an underdog. And I can read it
right now the last would have been.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
The Eagles in twenty eighteen against the Falcons, the Niners
in twenty twelve, and the Saints and then the Panthers
ninety six ninety seven, and in all three of those positions,
the home team came away with the win. So we
will see kind of how the market puts together the
spread in that one over the next week. But aside
(01:30):
from that stuck, before we get into Chargers Patriots.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
What a weekend, man, what's your thoughts on everything?
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Yeah? Crazy weekend. I got rinsed. Sadly, I had I
went one in four, some bad calls and some bad breaks.
I mean I had the Packers as a dog, which
was which was something I thought I was going to
push at worst. Yeah, after at the end, but the
missed deck, two miss field goals and missed extra point.
(01:57):
The two point conversion to play at the game was
the fourth and eight that Caleb got. If he doesn't
convert that fourth and eighth, the game is over. They
were down two possessions at the time they scored get
the two point conversion, and yeah, I mean McManus was
a disaster for them. But credit to the Bears. They
were this second team in NFL history to score twenty
(02:17):
five plus points in the fourth quarter or overtime of
a playoff game to overcome a fifteen plus point deficit.
It was them and the Patriots and the Super Bowl
against the Falcons. I lost money on both Patriots Falcons.
One of my biggest pets of all ever that I
that I lost. So that was I mean, the Bears
outscored in twenty five to six in the fourth quarter.
(02:38):
That was just the Bears games all year. It was
just it was like a micro cosm of the Bears
season in one game. And then the Packers in a
sense too with some of the losses they suffered. But
the Bears, they're never dead and they found a way.
But like the McManus kicks were so big because even
if you make like you make the extra point, can
(03:00):
kick the field goal at the end, you know, the
field goals earlier in the game. So, uh yeah, that
was just an incredible game, by the way, the most
lead changes we've ever seen in a single round of
the postseason already we still have one game to go.
Uh that was I mean the first three, the first
three games that we saw the winner was trailing with
(03:21):
two minutes to go. So yeah, just wild games. And
look in the playoffs when it's bet when it comes
to betting, or you know, just whoever wins these games.
Out right, the margins are thin, especially this year. Everything
is so wide open that you like go back. I
also had that one of the other bad breaks of that,
I had the Jags first half, so Lawrence's thigh goes
(03:44):
down at you know, the six. They get no points
out of that. And then the miskick at the end
of the first half by an all Pro kicker. That
kick was massive, obviously, I mean the game was a
three point game, but those things, those little things are
so magnified in the playoffs. So yeah, I thought any
(04:05):
of the games could have went anyway. The Panthers were
super surprising. I did not expect their offense to look
that well. Ide under that it was a terrible call.
And then my worst call week had is I had
the Chargers. I mean, the Patriots were dominant in that game.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Drake may was.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
I thought he had a pretty bad game. He could
have had like three or four turnovers, but he used
his legs more effectively. He hit the one big throwdown
field and on a side by side basis he looked
like an All Pro compared to Herbert. I mean Herbert.
Speaker 4 (04:35):
Look.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
I don't like to label these things for small sample
size because it's only been three starts, Like you know,
the playoff Herbert thing, and he had no help. The
offensive line was really poor. I thought the Patriots had
a really good game plan. They just couldn't handle their stunts,
their blitzes, and they were just bringing pressure. But Herbert
also played really poorly. He looked like the first time
(04:57):
starting quarterback. He looked like a rookie. I mean, he
was flow ustered, he missed some opportunities to scramble, he
missed some open throws, and then he was just inaccurate.
I get that he was under pressure and under fire,
especially late in the game once the Patriots built that lead,
but there were some opportunities there. I also thought hardball
the whole staff was extremely disapointed. I thought they got
significantly out coached. You went into that game, by the way,
(05:19):
you had a buy last week, so you basically had
two weeks. They took a buy, they had two weeks
to come up with game plans to make up for
the deficiencies that you knew. You had on the offensive line.
Did you not think that the Patriots were gonna blitz
and stunt and there was? It just seemed like there was.
I don't know what their game plan was. I don't
know what the offensive philosophy going into that game was.
(05:41):
And then you had hardball early on in the game.
He goes for it on fourth and goal at the two,
he doesn't get it, and then he has fourth and
goal at the two again and kicks a field goal.
I hate when coaches do that. You're the underdog on
the road. You were aggressed the first time. If you
thought it was just gonna be a field goal game,
then kick it both times. But he went for the
first time. Don't get scared just because you didn't get it.
But those were two huge sequences. And the Patriots, whose
(06:03):
red zone defense was the worst in the league this year,
Chargers have struggled in the red zone is their offense.
Patriots defense won that battle. I hope they were that
they had the most convincing win of any of the
five games.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Yeah, I mean not hard to have a convincing win
when it felt like it came down to the wire
and all of them this was I thought this was
gonna be a closer game tonight as well.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
I mean, three points ain't gonna do it.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
And of course you mentioned it, like if you're not
gonna go for it, I mean, if you're gonna go
for it at first, you gotta go for it again.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Absolutely ridiculous, like it's part of your.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
Game plan, like you got to figure out one way
or the other, either I need points or I don't.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
But you're right now.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
I'll go game by game here. We can go very
quickly since obviously we're going over a bunch here. But
New England won the game sixteen thirteen, covered the three
and a half at home total under forty five and
a half. Just simply a dominant performance from New England's defense.
I mean, aside from that, I think, like you said,
May played okay, but everyone's gonna talk about probably two things.
Charger's defense probably played as best as they could think
(06:57):
the offensive line let them down. Herbert hit seven eight
nine times in this game, which was on par for
everything we've seen from them this season. And I mean
just kind of looked like a Rabel defense in this game.
And coming up you've got Houston and Pittsburgh. I think
they'd probably like to see Pittsburgh, would be my guess
based off just you know, trying to see another defense
in that sense. But either way, kind of intriguing though,
(07:20):
any thoughts early on that New England game.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
Depending on opponent, I mean, you can kind of have
a similar game plan against sure, right, you have you
have Stroud, who struggles against the Blitz, Rogers who struggles
against pressure to you know, not the most reliable offensive lines.
So you know, I still have questions about this Patriots defense.
(07:44):
It's just like, who have they faced all year? Right, Like, yeah,
they faced Josh Allen got cooked and that's basically the
only and then they did. You have to give him
credit for just completely bottling up Herbert, but again, the
state of that offensive line, But it might be the
same story next week against either one of those opponents.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
You know, start, did Christian Gonzalez come back, So that's
a major concern.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Yet he was one of the things, like the Chargers
receivers were non existent. I mean, the best the only
guy that I heard his name the entire besides Herbert
getting hit was Vdal. He like he picked up that fumble,
ran for it. A couple of pat but who who
(08:30):
on the Chargers offense? Did you hear their name called?
Speaker 4 (08:33):
Like?
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Also, I mean, to be clear, a lot of people
talking about this, but they disguised the O'marian Hampton injury
a lot more than they probably should have, because it
honestly looked like he shouldn't have even played in the game,
and there should have been some designation. And we had
heard about ankle this and that he had a little
bit of a boot on it and basically shouldn't have
been out. There was the reason Herbert was scrambling on
over the place, and obviously Vidal played a ton of snaps.
(08:55):
But all right, let's keep rolling.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
Here, Padridson. You want to see the Steelers though, because
that's fair. I mean, look, the Steelers are three point
home dogs against the Texans. The Steelers, you can hit,
you can get explosives on them. That's something the Chargers
do take away, and they did for the most part today.
But yeah, I think that the Patriots should feel good
regardless of who they play. But the Texans, I think
(09:17):
would be a stiffer test defensively.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
I agree.
Speaker 3 (09:21):
All right, rematch, by the way, rematch earlier the season
with the Patriots the Steelers did go into New England
and beat the Patriots, but the Patriots dominated that game.
It was a typical voodoo Steelers win. I think the
Patriots turned it over five times. The Patriots kept getting
down to like the two and not scoring. It was
pretty crazy. So yeah, I think the Patriots will be
(09:43):
deserve his favorites at home against either.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
All right, let's keep rolling here.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
Buffalo Jackson will Buffalo wins twenty seven to twenty four,
one and a half point road Dogs total under fifty
one and a half, fifty two and a half.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
But right by the hook.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
I mean, I think you and I would mention this,
and you obviously had Jack's first half, but Buffalo's probably
started a little bit faster than maybe we had assumed,
even though it included like two punts of fumble, Like,
it wasn't exactly amazing offense in the first half, but
got the job done. But to me, it just turned
into kind of an everything Josh Allen game. A ton
of passing, running all over the place. But the Jags
(10:16):
rush defense did their job, like Cook did nothing. Fifteen
to forty six, just both around three yards per rush.
It was just other things that got them beat. I mean,
Buffalo went nine to sixteen on third down fourth down, definitely,
and you had mentioned it with the Caleb Williams throw,
But that back foot throw from Josh on first and
ten cooks ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
I mean, that's.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Those two throws like win football games. And when you're
talking about the margins being that thin, But what.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
Did you see here? Anything worth note?
Speaker 3 (10:46):
Yeah, I mean I don't think the Bills in the
first half were great. I mean the Jags were one
and a half yards per played better. The Bills had
one good drive in the whole first half, but it
was a great it was the meaningful drive. It was
ninety four yards after Trevor Lawrence's shin went huge swing
in that game, and then they kicked a fifty yard
field goal off of an interception. But those are the margins, Prater.
(11:09):
Your banged up kicker made a fifty plus yarder and
the Jags all Pro kicker who made twenty in a row,
missed a fifty plus yarder, and then in the red
zone you didn't get your fourth down, came up with
no points. The Bills were amazing on fourth downs, so
I thought, like just watching that game, the Jags were
the better team on a play by play basis, like
(11:30):
they completely stopped the run. They had way more success
running the ball, but the Bills had Josh Allen and
that was ultimately the difference. He played amazing because he
had no help from his run game they usually do.
And then the second half they had to open it
up and asked him to go win it, and he did.
I also thought in the first half the Jags really
really missed Parker Washington. He was he was amazing in
(11:54):
the second half. He was amazing in the second half
of the year, and he missed most of the first half.
I am shot. I mean, it's the playoffs, like there's
I guess there's there's no such thing as concussions for
a lot of teams. I'm shock that he came back
after what I saw. But he was great in the
second half. Did he finished for I think he finished
with over one hundred yards and so they missed him
(12:16):
in the first half. They missed some opportunities. But yeah,
really a coin foot game, like Jaggs, here's where this again,
where the margins are small. I think mcdermomy made a
huge mistake that Josh Allen toush push It's funny that
they used the Toush push so effectively and they were
(12:36):
trying to get it banned in the offseason. I believe
they were one of the teams that voted against it,
and they use it now effectively in the Eagles, like
they went four of like their last eleven on the
touch push. But there's a minute ten left at the
one on first in goal and the Jags have no timeouts.
(12:58):
I one hundred percent of the time, snap and fall down,
or snap and taken me one pc of the time,
and then you have three that you then you run
forty seconds off the clock. There was like a minut five.
Let there would have been twenty seconds left. You have
your timeouts, but you don't even need it. You have
(13:19):
three more Josh Allen tush pushes to get in and
then there's the Jags are done. Instead you went you
scored on the first play. Now it didn't matter because
Lawrence threw a pick. But what you shouldn't base things
off of the results. It's about the process. You could
say like, look, just score that, just get the points.
(13:40):
Things can happen. You can fumble, I get it. But
I think in the long run, the smart move there
was to not score on first down with them not
having any timeouts and then score.
Speaker 4 (13:49):
Now.
Speaker 3 (13:49):
I didn't bite the bills, but just something worth voting
because we've seen McDermott and final minutes of playoff games
go sideways before. But just an incredible game and it
was Josh and Josh. You have to like Alan got
beat up in that game too. I mean he came
in with an injury to his foot. He you know here,
(14:11):
he had his knee twisted, he got his head hit,
his hand hit on a helmet. I mean he the
Jags defense threw everything at him and he just made
incredible throws with like who at receiver? She cared a
great day, but they kept losing receivers. They've already like
so that was all on Josh Allen had tipped to him.
Speaker 1 (14:29):
I mean they saw Mitch Trubisky warming up and Josh
is like, no chance, that's on it.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
Josh Allen going to the blue tent in the playoffs
is me rolling my eyes. They just go in there
and like give him a pat on the ass and
tell him to get back out there.
Speaker 1 (14:44):
The reason you're right, though about the toush push at
the end is because the Jaguars faked like they were
they wanted him the score correct, but they faked it
like they wanted them to look like they cared about
him scoring. And Liam Cohen even said in postgame he
was like, we let them score.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
It was the right movie.
Speaker 3 (15:00):
So that's how you know it was the wrong move
to score. The other team is trying to let you score.
So like because of that, you could have like went
to the inch yard line and kneeled it, and the
chances of you scoring again from the inch yard line
with the Josh Allen towysch Bush are way higher than
(15:22):
the Jags with a minute ten being able to go
down the field and kick a fueld goal with a
kicker who has distance from he's made, he's two for
two from sixty seven plus the rest of the NFL
and NFL history he's oh for twenty two. So like
all they had to do, they could get the midfield right.
So you start like a lot of you started the
thirty five fifteen yards you're in range. Now it worked
out for them. I'm just saying I think that was
(15:42):
the wrong move.
Speaker 1 (15:43):
Yeah, sometimes it works out and it's just the wrong move.
Speaker 2 (15:45):
And that was one of them.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
I'll live Jags by the way. He rest of the
see should be happy that they're out. It was unfortunate,
incredible year from Liam Cohen. Easily could have won that game,
easily could have made a run. It was unfortunate that
both of these teams had to play each other home
wild cobekend completely agree.
Speaker 1 (16:03):
A lot of flak is going to go to Herbert
based off his performance tonight, But I did look it up.
Trevor Lawrence's three playoff starts minus one point six EPA today,
minus three point seven in his last start, and then
plus two point five against Case, but negative completion percentage
over expected in all three starts, qbr under fifty and
all three like, he just hasn't been his best.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
In these games. And that kind I mean, he played
alright today.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
Maybe you put it on the defense, but Buffalo does
put up what twenty six, twenty seven points in this game,
so probably a stopper more there on the defense right now.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
He wasn't great, he was he was just okay, But
the pick at the end was bad. The other pick
was bad early that led to Buffalo points, and then
you have to blame him for a shin going down
just awareness. I mean, it's just him. I know it
was kind of a fluky play, but that basically took
four and a half five points on average off the board.
(16:59):
So yeah, he wasn't great, but I thought the Jags
defense played well and it was just it was just
Josh Allen was just incredible.
Speaker 1 (17:09):
You gotta ad it to ridiculous and an unfortunate miss
from Cam Little early to obviously the difference. But all right,
green Bank, Chicago, Holy mackerel. So Chicago wins a game
thirty one, twenty seven and one and a half point
home Dogs total over forty six and a half. There
is really not much to say here other than like,
if you haven't watched Chicago all year, this is exactly
what you got. And then from Green Bay's perspective, like
(17:31):
they've lost five straight after this one, they have not
looked the same in you know, basically without Micah Parsons.
But I mean, when you talk about the play calling
from Laflour in the second half, they attempted seven runs
in the second half of twenty one three was minus
two to one six zero one zero and zero first
four drives in the second half.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
They gained nine total yards.
Speaker 1 (17:52):
And I think the worst part about it was they
knocked off like four minutes on the clock in total
in those four drives, so he just really got shit
before they even scored a touchdown in the second half
and really got something going. It was already twenty one
sixteen and it was a ballgame, so it just you
had kind of ruined the entire lead based off of
your play calling, and you could just see it like
(18:14):
after they got up, they were just allowing Chicago to
do kind of what they wanted and stick around, and
that honestly ended up being the problem. And you mentioned
that the fourth and eighth throw to Rome is just,
I mean, something you will see forever in Chicago, no
matter what happens, because it was just that unreal of
a throw from a guy that talented and also very
cool that he looked like Michael Jordan in the middle
of the air, but either way, absolutely ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
So what do you make from Green Bay Chicago?
Speaker 3 (18:40):
Yeah, I mean the Green Bay injuries, I think that
Cod there did. I mean, like Cooper, they had some
more offensive line injuries, Doc Tom not starting although they
were up twenty one three, missed a fuel go at
the end of that, they should be up twenty four
to three. You have to win that game. And they're
up twenty one six in the fourth quarter, like you
have to win that game no matter what, and it
(19:02):
just it just was your your typical Bears game. Also
another underrated play obviously the fourth and eight and if
they didn't call the false start, the snap goes over
the head before then and the game is over. The
fourth and eight is incredible throw by Kleb. Then they
score a touchdown, they get the two point conversion, slept
on conversion because if you don't get that the Packers
(19:24):
at the end. Now, the Packers missed the field goal
after that, but then they had the ball at the
very end of the game at the Bears twenty timeout
management wasn't great for the Force. They had no timeouts left,
there was a runoff. It was a mess. But if
the if there were so many things that could have
happened where the Packers could have kick the game winning
field and now they probably would have missed it again. But
(19:45):
they missed two field goals, an extra point, and the
Bears got a two point conversion not after nine points.
Of those hidden points and all of those cumulatively led
to a four point lead. If one of those things
goes the other way, the Packers are kicking a feel
a lot of tie or to take the order to win.
(20:06):
Instead they have to throw up a hail Mary. And
at the end they had their back up right tackle,
their third string center, and their backup left tackle in
the game. But I did think that Dennis Allen. I
thought that the four play calling wasn't great, but I
thought that Dennis allen adjustments on defense and the additional
some of the pressure packages that he was bringing I
(20:29):
thought were very nice in the second half, because that's
a bad defense. But it just felt like a choke
and it just felt like every Bears game all this year.
I mean, that's their seventh win this year, NFL record,
seventh win when trailing with under two minutes to go,
and as someone who had to, I had the Packers
plus one now again, I thought I was gonna push
(20:50):
it worse to losing that game is a nightmare. But
the fourth and eight, once they got that, I said,
I'm in trouble. I would have sale the game was
over if they didn't convert that. But that was the
play of the game.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
Seriously, I mean, that play is just unbelievable when you
look at back at it, especially almost getting sacked, like
throwing an almost mid air, just absolutely ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (21:14):
The one thing.
Speaker 3 (21:15):
Packers had just scored a touchdown to go up twenty
seven to sixteen with six to go, and like, now
there's what there was like five to go, fourth and
eight at midfield. You don't get that it's over. The
game's over. So given the circumstances, the stage, and then
just how incredible that throw you have to hat tip
(21:38):
Caleb Williams. Now the Bears get I mean, how based
on how everything broke, it's pretty crazy that the Seahawks
were they were, It looked like they were going to
get the Packers, and the Packers had a bunch more injuries,
and then the Bears win. So then you're a Seahawks fan,
(22:01):
you say, shit, we gotta play the Rams. And then
the Eagles get upset at home, which there's not a
lot of people including myself, saw happening, and now they
get the forty nine ers. So it went from oh,
we're getting the Packers for sure up twenty one, twenty
one to three, to oh god, we're getting the Rams
(22:23):
to Okay, we're getting the forty nine ers, So what
roller coaster promotions for Seahawks fans despite not.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
Playing seriously, absolutely unreal to go back and forth and
now Seattle looks like they're a seven and a half
point favorite against the Niners and rams are Land three
and a half at the moment in Chicago.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
So interesting lines.
Speaker 3 (22:42):
On the least touchdown swing Sewks serious the Eagles result,
you would go from a toss up game probably to
somewhere round of pick I mean, now a touchdown plus
favor crazy.
Speaker 2 (22:58):
All right, let's do that in San Francisco Philly game. Quick.
Speaker 1 (23:00):
So San Francisco does end up winning twenty three nineteen
five and a half point road dogs total under forty
four and a half.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
I thought this one.
Speaker 1 (23:06):
This line is fantastic, So from Shield Capatia, who used
to work with me at ESPN. Niners produced the highest
single game offensive success rate against the Eagles since Fangio
became their DC. It was just the perfect game plan
for what Shanahan put together here. San Francisco defense pretty
much showed up here with their six seventh eighth linebackers
out there, but really it was probably just an inept
(23:28):
Philly offensive game. I mean Hurts his fifteen incompletions just
one hundred and sixty eight yards passing Rady under eighty
QBR of forty and to me, this is what probably
gets at the most. So late passdowns he was at
thirty one percent success rate and passing to Davanta Goddard,
Barkley and aj he went eighteen of thirty one, So
(23:49):
that's thirteen incompletions, a lot off target, a lot in
pass breaks to those guys. And this one was the
best which Juwan Jennings had more completed passes fifteen plus
yards air then Jalen Hurts did, who went oh for
five just absolutely terrible from my opinion on the offensive
side of the ball. That really let them up because
Saquan had a good game. But what do you make
(24:10):
of this one?
Speaker 3 (24:12):
Yes, one thing I got right this weekend was the
under which I thought, which I thought was gonna get
ruined at the end of the toast. Yeah, I thought
the Eagles were going down and scoring. But this is
again a microcosm of the year for the Philadelphia Eagles,
and even playing this beat up and already bad forty
nine Ers defense that were down their top four linebackers.
(24:34):
They score, they go on to sixteen play ninety four
yard nine minute drive to golf thirteen to seven midway
through the second quarter, and then from on their next three, four, five,
Their next five drives twenty seven plays for twenty six yards,
(24:58):
taking them midway through the fourth. That was the Eagles
offense all year, no matter who they were playing, they
would go these long stretches where they couldn't do anything.
I mean, it is and like it to play calling
is bad. We know Patoola is bad. It's not creative.
It's just hitch routes. And some of the runs were
(25:20):
But the biggest thing is their offensive line is so
much like how many times did you see Barkley who
still if you actually just give them space, he will
go for ten to fifteen plus yards. How many times
all year including today was Barkley hit as soon as
you're handing the ball off hit stuffed in the backfield.
I mean they were thirtieth in the NFL and stuff right.
Obviously no Lane Johnson today hurt. Their offense is night
(25:43):
and day with him. But this was it kind of
just summed up the Eagle season with their offense and
the droughts that they went on the u have Siriani
blowing up on the sidelines with AJ Brown and then
AJ Brown doesn't catch a pass. A couple dropped the
whole rest of the way. The AJ Brown discourse and
(26:04):
the Sirianni Patuila discourse on WIP and what is the
ninety seventy five whatever the radio station is for the
next couple of weeks, It's going to be interesting in Philly.
But yeah, I was shocked at the Niners with and
even after losing Kittle. Yeah, and they lost the turnover
(26:24):
battle to nothing. Perty had two bad picks, But I
was shot that they were able to push the ball
down the field and hit explosives on this Eagles defense
in twenty five to thirty mile an hour wins. They
had a bunch. I mean, DeMarcus Robinson had a day.
He went off and look, everyone knew the Eagles offense
(26:47):
had issues. Everyone knew Jake Elliott had a down year.
And by the way, I know san Fran missed an
extra point, but Elliott's missed extra point. You had that
in you can kick a field goal late. Like these
little things in the playoffs make such a difference. But
I would be remiss if I didn't give you gave
Shanahan credit. I'll look at it from the other side.
(27:11):
The Eagles defense deserves criticism here. This was the unit
that's carried them all year and you're going up against
you know, I mean, Fanjo has own Shannah in the
past four head to head meetings. He's averaged ten and
a half points per game, never cleared fifteen. And the
forty nine ers, even after losing Kittle, there's no Ricky Piersoll.
(27:31):
They gained three hundred and sixty one yards six point
two yards per play, and there was no run game
to speak of, and there was thirty mile an hour
wins and you have the lead late kick a field goal.
I'll off have an interception, and you let them go
ten plays sixty six yards and score a touchdown that
(27:54):
you cannot let them. At worst, you have to hold
them to a field goal there. But credit to forty
nine ers, the Eagles defense, they were great all year.
They do deserve blame for that performance today because it
wasn't great. So yeah, credit to the forty nine ers
is an all I Sawah was great. They didn't allow
the explosives there. There was I mean, Eric Hendricks made
(28:17):
the made he deflected the game winning pass, and like, yeah,
there was the toola can't be back?
Speaker 2 (28:26):
You have?
Speaker 3 (28:26):
This roster has way too much talent to be coordinated
like that. I don't even know, Well Siriani be back,
I don't know, I mean he does he yet? The
Eagles are ruthless. They have a very good organization, a
very good GM. They're run very well. Yeah, like is
(28:46):
he one hundred percent?
Speaker 1 (28:47):
This is a loss that just can't happen, right, I
mean like even watching this game, Phillies up, three, Phillies
up six, whatever it was, it was like, Okay, they're
gonna do enough to win this and we're going to
talk the entire week about how it didn't look good
but they want anyway. And San Francisco was like screw that,
Like we're honestly just gonna take this game, no matter
who's on the field.
Speaker 2 (29:05):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (29:05):
I kind of had forgetten, like forgotten and then blanked
out about the Kittle thing, but I mean not, I
mean adding the Kittle injury to everything else they were
going through and then they still come out on top.
Just honestly, probably one of those shocks. I mean if
Carolina had one, which we'll talk about in a second.
Obviously more shocking, but this was it. I mean, this
was the craziest. I couldn't have even imagined this with
(29:26):
all the injuries. I line got up to six middle
of the week, close at five and a half, but
wild nonetheless, And the thing was San Francisco also gave
them two turnovers, So I mean, well, yeah, two nothing.
The thing that's crazy is and I just looked, I
looked this up before we came on. Siriani is now
lost four straight when the opponent has two plus turnovers.
He was twenty five and two prior to that. So,
(29:47):
I mean, lately it just no matter what happens, close
game and Philly's offense doesn't come through.
Speaker 3 (29:52):
But shock, there's like these the Hurts never turns it over, right,
they don't They the Eagles never turn sometimes. That's like
I feel like it's bad in a way because they
just they don't take risks, right, They're like it's just
these how many times on second and long and sometimes
on third long where they're running the ball.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
To lose.
Speaker 3 (30:16):
Yeah, they're just playing to like pull these games out
by a field goal. Bear, And like that's tough to do.
They just need a whole new offensive of off score
in a new philosophy.
Speaker 1 (30:28):
It's like, this is like not making the playoffs, honestly,
like it pretty much is going to be looked at
very similarly to lose a game as like a six
point favorite at home to a team that's the walking dead.
Speaker 3 (30:38):
All right, I will say the line news something that. Look,
the best thing you can do betting the NFL, and
even in the playoffs, where lines are even more efficient,
is get the best of the number. It's the best
thing you can do. Now, this weekend didn't really work out.
Didn't work out for me in particular. I could think
of Packers, I add the Panthers under forty nine Ers
(30:58):
under least worked out. But if you had the Jags,
I mean Jags took real money. Jags at some sharp
shops closed two and a half, opened a dog, and
then the Eagles they were sitting three and a half close.
I think it closed five and a half, right there, Yeah,
close five and a half linked with Lane Johnson Autrent
(31:21):
Williams in. But you beat that line over the long run.
That's gonna work out with this week for some of
the bigger line moves didn't work out, but short sample
size can overreact, all.
Speaker 1 (31:34):
Right, Speaking of lines and craziness, Rams beat the point
Panthers thirty four to thirty one. They close a ten
point road favorites total over forty five. So yeah, Carolina
does close plus ten time for the biggest home dog
in playoff history. But listen, Carolina was inside or pushing
the number of the entire game, the entire game. So
I mean there was a chance for the Rams to
(31:55):
go up. You know, it could have been it could
have been thirteen, that could have been sick teen or seventeen.
But there was an opportunity there that kind of blow
the game away, and they almost really blew this one.
I mean seriously, a few opportunities there late in the
game where it could have definitely gone Carolina's way, especially
after that late turnover. I will say this home dog's
(32:15):
of four plus and down nine to zero against the
spread last fifty years in the playoffs. We will see
if the Bears get there. Pretty crazy for a two
seed home dog in the divisional round. But nonetheless, all
I really have to say is like Bryce Young played formidable,
Like the numbers were all right, He had.
Speaker 2 (32:32):
A positive EPA.
Speaker 1 (32:33):
But he goes four of seventeen passing under pressure, just
not something you can do in something typical to what
Bryce Young usually does. And then you look at the
other side, Stafford, three touchdowns, no picks, two hundred and
forty four yards in a clean pocket and under pressure
he goes five to thirteen with an interception and what
you would have expected thirty one targets to Pooka and DeVante.
(32:55):
So going to the people he trusts in this one.
Speaker 3 (32:58):
Yeah, I was at the game was played out nothing
like I thought it would. Carolina came out throwing. I
thought they were going to try to run, control the clock,
shorten the game. Now maybe because they got behind that
all changed. But yeah, I mean Young threw the ball
forty times, he only ran it I think twenty now
they didn't have much success running it. I thought Quentin Lake,
(33:19):
who returned from injury, had a really bad game. He's
a good player, and I thought it was going to
help the defense. But that looked like there was some
rust and the speed wasn't there. And I mean Davante
missing time, he didn't look great. I mean when he
had five catches, he was targeted. How many times. Was
he targeted a lot fourteen times? Yeah? So Nikoua was incredible. Stafford,
(33:44):
I thought he struggled a bit against again his old coordinator,
these these coverages where they disguise and shift post snap,
these mass coverages. He struggled a bit again, But in
the end they recovered and they put that drive together
at the end of the game. Seven plays, seventy one yards,
(34:06):
incredible throw by Stafford down the sidelines and they got
a Yeah, that was crazy. So I was shocked at
the Fantas scored thirty one the first time in won,
but that was on you know, a pick six, a
couple of fourth down busted plays. I did not think
they were going to get to thirty one this time around.
(34:26):
So I'm I'm not sure what the make of the Rams.
In short, like I fought like a month ago, this
is a team. If you said who's winning the Super Bowl,
I would have confidently said, all right, I'm gonna pick
the Rams. And then you know, down they're up. They're dominating.
The Seahawks look like they're poised to get the one seed.
(34:48):
They melt away that game they lose in Atlanta. They
don't look great, and you know, wanting to try for
the first two and a half quarters against the Cardinals,
and they eat this game out against Carolina. I got
to dig more into the Rams on what's going on
because it hasn't looked pretty for the last month.
Speaker 1 (35:06):
Anow, they're lay in three and a half or four
in the Chicago team who maybe won't be there in
the first half, but you know they will be there
in the second.
Speaker 2 (35:13):
The two things I.
Speaker 3 (35:14):
Set the Bears when they go down seventeen.
Speaker 1 (35:17):
The two things I saw from the Rams in this
game that I guess are kind of puzzling. So they
get nine penalties and this is coming from the least
penalized team in the NFL during the season.
Speaker 3 (35:26):
The penalized team in five years.
Speaker 1 (35:28):
Yeah, they had twelve percent of their entire regular season
penalties in this game. I mean that that is how crazy,
and I guess undisciplined to a tee they were in
this one and the other This is the other one,
and you had mentioned it, but Carolina going four to
four in the red zone and Cocher and Tech going
fourteen of two point fifteen, that's a problem. And you
had mentioned Lake, but their secondary they're the past players.
Speaker 2 (35:52):
They allow.
Speaker 1 (35:53):
To me, that's like part of the issue, and you're
going up against I'm gonna call them the Magician, but
right now that's kind of what Caleb's doing. So I mean,
between Burden and Rome getting another week of healthy coming
off of this one, and I just does on DJ Moore,
there's a lot of options there for Chicago. I think
it's a little bit of a worry.
Speaker 3 (36:09):
Yeah, the Rams secondary by far is the most questionable
aspect of their team and what ultimately might hold them
back for a set boll. I mean going back to
let's start the November thirtieth when they played the Panthers,
they gave up thirty one and lost. They played the
Cardinals with like they were a backup team, but the
(36:31):
Cardinals were moving the ball in that game, like throwing
the ball as well. They gave up. Then they gave
up thirty four to the Lions, thirty eight to the Seahawks,
twenty seven to the Falcons in a loss, and then
you know, they play the backup Cardinals again, Cardinals are
moving the ball in that game too, and then thirty
one to the Panthers. So like this defense over the
last month and a half has regularly given up thirty
(36:53):
one to thirty three thirty eight points sets that and
the Bears have the talent to take it. We'll just
see how far behind they get first.
Speaker 2 (37:02):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (37:03):
Crazy, Well that was Wildcard weekend. Here's your weekly reminder
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Speaker 2 (38:27):
Monday night football time.
Speaker 1 (38:28):
So right now, if I look at the board, it
is Texans minus three sitting at minus one zh five,
so that seems to be coming down a bit thirty
eight and a half. Which the fun thing about thirty
eight and a half. It is the lowest playoff total
since I believe brock Osweiler Connor Cook twenty sixteen seventeen,
so we haven't seen a playoff total this low in
(38:49):
some time. But stuck, I will leave it to you, like,
what do you think about this game? I have a
pick or two and some trends, but what do you
make of this one?
Speaker 3 (38:59):
I mean, I think the line. I think it like
taking out all the three and a half on the
Steelers made sense. The low scoring game home dog Rogers
can get the ball out quick to neutralize some of
that Texans pressure. The issue is going to be is
if they don't think it's going to be hard to
maintain drives right, So like if you could have a
(39:21):
couple first downs, but then if you have if you're
incomplete on first run for two on second on those
third and longs. Rogers against that pressure, and he's been
bad against pressure year, it's not going to go well.
On the other end, Stroud has been really bad against
the blitz. The Steelers defense is getting healthier. You never
know what you're gonna get from Steelers defense. So like
some weeks they look incredible, some weeks it looks broken.
(39:43):
There's gonna be some bus which adds some variants here.
But they also tend to have those splash plays from
their defensive line. The strip sacks, the interceptions, how many
of those can they get will probably go a long
way in determining this game. You know, it's also we'll
see how you know Stroud and an indoor team going
to outdoors and freezing cold temperatures. That's at least worth noting.
(40:07):
I think if you want to bet this game, I
don't have anything right now, but this game is on Monday,
you're gonna have lines. How you know you already have
the Seahawks, Niners, line out the Rams Bears if you
like something next week. I think the Steelers are a
good teaser piece to pair with, you know, say, getting
(40:27):
Seattle from seven and a half to one and a half.
It's just it's just an ideal teaser piece. The total
is thirty eight and a half. I know it's not
the line is that two and a half, But it's
a juice three, you know, so you're crossing three four
six seven. So yeah, I think the Steelers teaser piece
is a good look. But this will probably come down
(40:49):
to which defense can force the more critical turnover because
this one should be tight throughout.
Speaker 2 (40:58):
Yeah. I mean, if I had to pick a winner,
I like Houston.
Speaker 1 (41:00):
But I think the line's just right and I'm not
comfortable really laying three three and a half with a
three eight and a half total, so I buy that.
The one thing I think is interesting is obviously you
get DK Metcalf back in the game. But if you've
watched any Steelers games this year, the chemistry between Metcalf
and Rodgers is pretty much zero. Like I feel like
he is not his favorite target. Now will he force
it there? Like he tends to just throw to his
(41:22):
guys mvs or the tight ends.
Speaker 2 (41:25):
Like it's just Rogers is set in his ways.
Speaker 1 (41:27):
So it'll be interesting to me how Metcalf kind of
gets brought back into the picture after two plus weeks
of them trying to deal without him, So that to
me is interesting.
Speaker 3 (41:38):
Yeah, I don't think. I don't think Metcalf being back
is as important in some matchups. You know, he could
He's worth a couple of points of day, sure, Like,
but here Uf Stingley, who can just man up against him?
Because a lot of times you even in the red
zone right, you'll see like a safety you know, kind
(41:59):
of hovering on his side, cheating decided it might open
up some other things. But the Texans, you know, with
their corners, they can trust Stingley. By the way, Leonora
followed AJ Brown, he never followed all year, and he
followed A J. Brown today. I don't they just give
him on my mind, he didn't follow JSN all year.
I'm curious to see if that they changed that next week.
But yeah, so he's not as important, but he does
(42:21):
have the big play capability, So like he does have
the chance of like taking a slant seventy yards right,
whereas no one else on the Steelers does. So he
gives you a little bit more upside. But in this
particular matchup, I don't think he's as big as he
would be compared to others.
Speaker 1 (42:39):
And you would mentioned this Stroud thing. I think it
is worth noting. I mean, he's two and oh straight
up and against the spread at home in the playoffs,
zero and two on the road and those you know,
you hear quarterback stats and you're like, I need more context. Well,
I mean on those two road games, they've scored twenty
four total points, scoring fourteen or less in both games.
Speaker 2 (42:56):
You don't you don't need much more contact than that.
Speaker 1 (42:59):
So that has to change if Houston's going to be
able to produce what they need to do to win
this game. So to me, that's noteworthy. And then I
tweeted this out. It's just kind of bonkers that the
Steelers have started so.
Speaker 2 (43:09):
Slow in playoff games.
Speaker 1 (43:10):
They've been outscored seventy three to nothing in their six
game playoff losing streak in the first quarter. So I
mean they've scored seven points or less than sixty nine
straight first quarters. Like, you're gonna probably need some sort
of offense at some point. You don't want to fall
down seven, ten, thirteen, whatever. Is nothing to Houston with
that defense, So Pittsburgh got to try to change things
(43:30):
up there. So those are the things that I thought
were kind of noteworthy.
Speaker 2 (43:33):
I'll give you, just sixty.
Speaker 3 (43:35):
Nine straight without scoring more than seven points in the
first quarter is insane.
Speaker 1 (43:40):
Insane, and it's just and that's through Rudolph and all
sorts of different garbage. But nonetheless, the three things I
were looking at were I kind of like wooding marks
again in the end zone, even in a low scoring game.
If I had to pick a touchdown, that would probably
be my guy. I actually really like mvs. Over nine
and a half receaving yards. I just feel like in
(44:00):
this type of game, even with Metcalf back, he's going
to force it into the tight ends. But I also
think he's going to force it into the guys he likes,
because that's just who the hell Rodgers is so I
like that nine and a half, and I would look
at Boswell over one and a half field goals. I
don't love it in this type of game. But again,
I see Pittsburgh moving the ball up to a certain
point and then just being steinmiat and Rodgers getting sacked
(44:20):
and whatever. It ends up being in completions and then
they end up having to kick field goals. So I
don't even know what that line is. I didn't look
at the juice, but over one and a half field
goals feels like something that'll hit for Boswell. So those
are my three looks.
Speaker 3 (44:32):
I believe the Giants have the record for that record
for consecutive games without scoring more than seven points in
the first quarter, and I think it's current. I think
it's eighty. Maybe they broke it this year, but I
don't think I think it's eighty games. I'm Giants eighty
(44:53):
games without scoring.
Speaker 1 (44:57):
I have the Pittsburgh stack goes back to number of
twenty twenty two, which is a lot of time for Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2 (45:03):
In a lot of different quarterbacks.
Speaker 3 (45:04):
This one goes back to twenty twenty. O don't know. Let
me say, wow, I could be making this up.
Speaker 2 (45:11):
Even if you are it sounds impressive.
Speaker 3 (45:13):
Yeah. The New York Giants had a streak of eighty
consecutive games where they scored no more than seven points
in the first quarter. Began during the twenty twenty season
and continued until early in the twenty twenty five seasons,
so it ended earlier this year. It's the second longest
streak in NFL history. The longest is.
Speaker 2 (45:32):
Oh, you know what, it might have been russ In
like that early Cowboys game. Yes, that's a guess.
Speaker 3 (45:39):
The record is held by the Brooklyn Dodgers from nineteen
thirty to nineteen thirty seven eighty six.
Speaker 2 (45:47):
Jackie Robinson.
Speaker 1 (45:48):
All right, so if you want to tell some of
these Monday night football bets, make sure to look for
the quicks up blink in the podcast in video description
or go to Action hour dot com slash bet now now.
But finally, before we get out of here, let's hear
from Brandon Anderson and his Hot Red picks for next
week Hot Wraps seventy on ice rights ice cream Hoe.
Speaker 5 (46:12):
I'm gonna start with forty nine Ers Seahawks. Gimme the
under under forty six and a half. Typically you want
overs in the division round and usually with the Niners.
But you look a little below the surface here. Obviously,
these teams just played two weeks ago Seattle thirteen to three,
dominant win. Niners thirty six percent success rate terrible, one
hundred and seventy three yards, three points, both of those
(46:34):
there lowest since their debut game with Cal Shanahan back
in twenty seventeen. Nine first downs all game. They got
totally shut down on their money plays sand Fran number
number one, red zone number one on late downs. They
were two eleven on late downs oh of one in
the red zone that game. This is what Seattle went
out to get Mike McDonald four for these Shanahan McVay offenses,
(46:56):
Seahawks defense is awesome Number one Dvoway, top two against
the run and the pass, and importantly top seven are
better against motion play action under center, middle of the field,
all those money Shanahan areas. That is what Seattle defense best.
And it turns out that really wasn't new for the
(47:16):
Niners offense to stall. We saw it again today against
a real defense. Check out these splits. Since brock pretty
returned from injury, Niners have played four games against defenses
twentieth or worse. Four games against anyone better like twentieth
is not even good, just even league average or better.
This is including like Carolina and Cleveland, and those four
games against the bad defenses average scored the game just
(47:39):
under seventy points a game forty or fifty four percent
success rate for the Niners offense, and the other four
games again against any defense with a pulse forty percent
success rate down from fifty four. Average score of those
games not seventy anymore, try thirty thirty point three max
score of forty two. The Niners off is just not
(48:00):
scoring against top defenses. I think they got a little
bit inflated based on some of those bad matchups. Now,
obviously George Kittle is out. That's a huge loss, especially
in this matchup. Seattle is not defended tight ends that great.
Trent Williams is a question mark as always, he missed
the last game. Ricky Piersoll is an unknown. Niners offense
has just not been good enough, and Sales offense really
(48:22):
hasn't been that top notch either. Week eleven, a RAMS game,
we saw the RAMS count of exposed Seattle, and since
that game forward, Seattle went from the number one passing
offense to twenty fifths. That's bottom quarter of the league. Seattle,
even against the Niners, probably not going to hang a
huge number. They have been an under team, especially first
half thirteen and four to the under, so I will
(48:43):
probably look for a first half under as well.
Speaker 2 (48:45):
But this forty six.
Speaker 5 (48:46):
And a half, this is the same total the Niners
open against the Eagles, and I don't close forty four.
I think this goes the same direction that's already going down.
Forty seven is a key number. We're on the wrong
side of it, but I think we get towards forty four,
which is the key number down. Give me the under
forty six and a half at DraftKings, Seahawks and Niners.
And while we're here, quick second, high red, keep it
(49:09):
nice and easy. Seahawks rams money line parlay. It's Evan
odds right now. This color shot, I think that is
our NFC championship game. Let's start with the Seahawks.
Speaker 3 (49:19):
We're just there.
Speaker 5 (49:20):
This is a bet on that Mike McDonald defense. Niners
injured everywhere, all those offensive injuries, and Seattle is rested
now because they got that thirteen to three road to win.
This is what they get is the home game with
rest against this tired Niners team. I don't really want
to trust Darnold in that offense yet, but San Franz
defense should be just enough for them to get there.
(49:41):
Seattle's zero three in the red zone that game, so
probably it shouldn't have been been as close as it did.
Turn out. Seattle, when they have fans at home games,
ten straight playoff wins, third longest streak in NFL history.
I think they get an eleventh one here and host
the NFC Championship game against the Rams. This is an
easy sell high spot for the Bears, obvious letdown spot
(50:05):
emotionally after I can they won their Super Bowl right
We saw the comeback the crazy, crazy game against the Packers,
but don't forget though the first three quarters count there too.
Chicago has been totally outplayed through three quarters twice now
in the last month against the Packers, really against some
of the Packers' backups before that big finish. Bears lose
their starting left tackle, they lose their best linebacker and
(50:27):
TG Edwards. Their corners are all banged up. This is
really a good get right spot, I think for the Rams,
especially that Rams offense. I think they can name their
number against the Bears defense. Bears d by far the
weak link on the field, similar to Santa Fran in
the other game. Stafford's fingers supposedly looks fine. How gon
to count on the Rams to score? Do the Bears score?
(50:48):
They might Ben Johnson might find some answers. Rams defense
has been a little bit leaky, but you don't want
to want to shoot out against the Rams. Not with
that Bears defense. Rams didn't get the one seed, but
they didn't kind of get lucky. They get Carolina and
now this banged up Bears team rather than a road
game in a failure or something like that. This is
my Super Bowl pick, my favorite. I think they're the
(51:09):
surer win of these teams, even though they're a bit
shorter on the line. So I'll probably be back on
Rams and Alts this week. So I'm just gonna ride
the two favorites here. I think the public will as well,
especially with all.
Speaker 2 (51:19):
The injury news.
Speaker 5 (51:20):
So I think these lines do rise a little bit,
maybe towards six ish for the Rams, maybe to seven
or past for Seattle. We're getting plus one hundred on
the money line parlay. I think by game day next weekend,
maybe more like minus one twenty five one to thirty.
So let's grab a rams Seattle money line parlay at
even odds plus one hundred and called a rap. Let's
(51:42):
get to the NFC Championship.
Speaker 2 (51:44):
All righty?
Speaker 1 (51:45):
Then, thank you Brandon, as always, we appreciate it and
we miss you. That'll do it here on the Favorites
in the Action Hour podcast for our crossover NFL Wildcard
Weekend recap episode presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (51:56):
Give us a like on the YouTube video and do.
Speaker 1 (51:58):
Not forget five starts and reviews wherever and whenever you
are listening.
Speaker 2 (52:02):
We always appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (52:03):
If you haven't yet, check out our new AI clicks
about on x just tag playbook at Playbook tell to
grab whatever bets you're looking for. It'll create a quick
slip link for you in a matter of seconds. We'll
be back for Action Island right before Monday night football
game right here Steelers Texans video comes out midday, It'll
be live all day to check out and more best
(52:25):
bets from Brandon, the six pack from Ray Bond and
Stuck Anytime, touchdowns from Jill and all of our guys,
and more on the podcast feed next week for the
divisional round.
Speaker 2 (52:34):
Thank you for listening. Good luck with all your bets,
oh Man. What a weekend.
Speaker 1 (52:47):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 3 (52:51):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
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