Wild Seasons End, Wild Playoffs Begin | NFL Wild Card Weekend

The NFL postseason is officially here and The Favorites is back for an early look at Wild Card Weekend! Action Network hosts Brandon Kravitz, Kendra Middleton and Stuckey discuss a sad ending to the season for the Baltimore Ravens, a strange regular season in the league overall and more. Plus, the crew each plants their flag early on a game they like this weekend and dives into some nuggets from the weekly NFL Primer, courtesy of Action Director of Research Evan Abrams, delivering everything needed to start betting the NFL each week. Jump in and enjoy! 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, back
at it on this Tuesday morning. The first Lady of
the pod, Kendri Middleton, is with us. The Prime Minister
of DJEN Nation, Stucky is here. And on today's episode,
we plant the flag for the wild Card round of

(00:31):
the NFL Playoffs. The postseason is here. I am fired up.
I know all of you are as well. Kendrick's deepest
thoughts are coming our way on this podcast, and of
course the main event Evans Tuesday Primer. If you thought
this season was bizarre, it's because it was. This is
straight from the primer. I recommend that before you place

(00:53):
any wagers, you go and read through this thing thoroughly.
One preseason division favorite ended up on it was the Eagles.
The fewest that we've seen since two thousand and eight.
Two teams with win totals of eleven plus before the
season missed the playoffs entirely, the Chiefs and the Ravens.
It's the first time that's happened since the year two thousand.

(01:16):
We have made it to the most unpredictable, postseason imaginable,
putting everyone on the spot here that is on this
podcast to open up the show. If your life depended
on it, who would you bet? Or perhaps you have
already to win the Super Bowl this year, Kendra your go.

Speaker 2 (01:35):
I don't think anybody's going to be surprised with my answer.

Speaker 3 (01:37):
Actually some people might be.

Speaker 4 (01:38):
It.

Speaker 2 (01:39):
People probably expecting me to say the Jags, but I'm
gonna say the Rams. Matt Stafford, absolute beast, he's got
the weapons, give me tight pants, Sean McVay any day.

Speaker 3 (01:50):
I think that that's the best option here.

Speaker 2 (01:52):
Whoever comes out of the NFC I think is going
to wind up winning the Super Bowl, But I'm going
to go with the quarterback with the most experienced left
in the game in such a way weird postseason stucky.

Speaker 4 (02:04):
Yeah, I'd probably go the Rams, and they have to
play three road games most likely, but I have empower
rated number one. The first game they should win. I mean,
it's not that tough playing at Carolina and then what,
I just don't trust the Eagles offense. They have the
fewest flaws in my opinion. So if my life depended

(02:27):
on it, that's probably who I would go with the
AFC is completely wide open. I mean, the entire playoffs
is clearly wide open. But if I had to, if
my life is on the line, I'd go the team
I have power at a number one, which is the Rams.

Speaker 2 (02:44):
Do we think the MVP thing changes anything though, like
the curse of getting the MVP and not being able
to win the Super Bowl? I think Mahomes was the
last person to do it in twenty nineteen. It see
the only person. That might be a question for Evan,
but that's been a hot topic of conversation around here.

Speaker 5 (03:00):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (03:00):
I mean, I don't know how much reality is baked
into that, but it does seem like the guy that
wins the MVP typically wins it because he's putting the
team on his back, and that's not a Super Bowl formula.
You have to have the best team, not the best quarterback.
With that said, I think if my life was on

(03:20):
the line, I don't know that I could actually stomach
making it through the postseason waiting until I croak because
the team lost, So I would I would just take
the Bills and back Josh Allen and the team that's
been waiting to break through that of all of these teams,
there's one that feels like if not now then than never.

(03:45):
For how they're constructed and how great Josh Allen is.
He's the best quarterback in the postseason period, so I
think I would just back him. And mind you, I
still might end up betting the Jags, So it would
just be like, either take me all the way or
just off me a wild card weekend.

Speaker 5 (04:02):
I don't know.

Speaker 2 (04:04):
It's just a matter of if the Jaguars game plan
properly and decide to run the ball in a fishient amount,
because that's what concerns me is that you know that
one if they get the run game going, they are
one of the.

Speaker 3 (04:16):
Best offenses in the NFL.

Speaker 2 (04:17):
It's just a it's just a matter of if that's
what they're going to do against a bad run defense.

Speaker 3 (04:22):
That's what makes me nervous.

Speaker 1 (04:23):
To Stucky's point, he said that he's picking the Rams
because they're the least flawed team. I think there's not
a team that is in the postseason that doesn't have
glaring flaws. I mean, even the Rams. The Rams have
not been good in the last couple of weeks of
the season, not nearly as good as their standard and
their special teams as a disaster. So all of these

(04:44):
teams have problems. So I would just sell. I would
just say, if my life was on the line, there's
give me Josh Allen. I'll just ride the coattails of
Josh Allen. See what happens. We have a lot of
bets to get to. We have a lot of different
angles to talk about. Let's talk about something that happened
on Sunday Night football. How about the bookend to this

(05:05):
season for the Baltimore Ravens. Up by fifteen in the
final few minutes of the first Sunday night football game
of the season against Buffalo, they blow it. They lose
by one. And then the last Sunday Night football game
of the season, they allow Aaron Rodgers without dk Metcalf
to throw for eleven to fourteen one hundred and thirty

(05:25):
three yards in a touchdown in the fourth quarter. They
lose the game on a missed field goal hearts out
to Tyler Loop. The Ravens finished with the second worst
ats record in the NFL at six and eleven against
the closing line stucky, what is next for your star
quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Speaker 4 (05:46):
I had no idea, but I think that the defense led.
You know, the defensive performance the fourth quarter was directly
correlated to I mean one of the players it was.
The Steelers field is absolute garbage. He had Ousi a
fall down on one of the plays, but Kyle Hamilton
getting hurt was I tweeted it out as soon as

(06:07):
it happened. That's a death blow for that defense. I
can't get any pressure. That's the number one thing they
have to address. They all season. They got to. They
have to address their lack of pressure off of the edge.
But Kyle Hamilton has arguably the most valuable player in
the league on the defensive side of the ball. He
they allowed three point seven yards per play before he

(06:28):
went out, six point a after he left. He does
so much for them. I mean, I know that everyone
knows that he's good, but if like just the amount
of things that they do with him. He basically plays
the linebacker at all pro level, that's he's basically moved
to like almost that you know, fifty to sixty percent

(06:49):
of the time he's playing linebacker in the box. Does
so many different things for him. That was an enormous
loss in that game. And then the coaching, like you
cannot settle. That's the hardest stadium the NFL to kick at.
I said it right away. I was like, you can't.
You have to go get more yards here, even if

(07:09):
you just try to run for three or four yards
going backwards taking a knee was coaching malpractice in my opinion.
So it might be time. Hardball I think has done
a great job overall in Baltimore, but it just might
be time for a new voice and a change for both.

(07:30):
So yeah, it was disappointing because if the Raves got
in they could have made a run. That's how wide
open the AFC is. So yeah, congrats to the Steelers
for getting it done. But I thought the coaching. The
Hamilton injury was massive, and I felt bad for Luke,
but just putting it on like a young kicker in
that stadium without trying to get any more yards at

(07:52):
fourteen seconds in a timeout was awful. But yeah, just
the Raves have had some heartbreaking ends to seasons in
recent years, and that is added to the list.

Speaker 1 (08:06):
I mean, the script writers nailed this one, Kendra. When
you look at the way the season started and then
the way that it ended. Sunday Night football for the
Ravens got us off to this tremendous start to a
wildly unpredictable season. The Ravens were off, and then to
end the season that way, it was just I.

Speaker 2 (08:23):
Have something crazier than I've been looking at the last
twenty four hours. The Patriots missed the one seed because
the first game of their season they lost to the
Las Vegas Raiders, who now have the first pick in
the NFL Draft. They missed the one seed because they
lost to the mother freaking Raiders.

Speaker 3 (08:44):
Think about that, as.

Speaker 5 (08:45):
Said it yourself, I think that's a first in this
podcast history.

Speaker 3 (08:49):
So dude, how nuts is that?

Speaker 5 (08:53):
Like?

Speaker 3 (08:53):
That's crazy?

Speaker 5 (08:55):
That is crazy.

Speaker 1 (08:56):
Honestly, when you go back and look at some of
the weird things that happened in Week one, baiting just
not even using that as a reference point to the
rest of the season. You know, let's have fun, let's
celebrate Week one. I'm not sure how much any of
it actually matters. What we see these teams are, they're
some of which are gelling for the first time. They

(09:16):
haven't played in months. Nobody plays in the preseason extensively anymore.
Week one of the NFL season, as as time goes on,
I will value that week less and less and it's
a note that I will document in my trusty notepad
here for next season. I just I think week one
throws us all for a loop because I mean, go
back and look at that game the Raiders. If the

(09:38):
Raiders played the Patriots right now, what would the line
be on that put the game on the moon?

Speaker 3 (09:42):
It would be yeah, exactly, not even close.

Speaker 5 (09:47):
Stuck you, how do you value that?

Speaker 1 (09:49):
As far as looking back at the way that we
and the way that we analyze week one, it would
be be best for those that try and generate our
own numbers to just punt what you see in the
first week of the season.

Speaker 4 (10:02):
No, I mean I wouldn't punt on it. It's a
data point. But like weird things happen every week in
the NFL. Maybe it's there's a little more of arrands
in week one because of the preseason. But I mean
you can go, I'll pull up I mean, look, I'll
just I'll go to the NFL. Let's go to NFL
scoreboard on the Action app, and I'll pick a random week.

(10:28):
Let's go week twelve. So Week twelve, this is when
the Lions went to overtime with the Giants, the Jaguars
went to overtime with the Cardinals. The Cowboys beat the Eagles.

(10:51):
Like this, this is this is the NFL. Every single
week you're gonna have I mean, think about the Falcons.
The Jets came the first team in NFL history to
lose the five straight games by twenty three or more points.
I think their last five games is lost by twenty
four to twenty eight, twenty seven, thirty one and twenty
eight something like that. The week before that they beat

(11:15):
the Falcons, and if the Falcons would have won that game,
they would have won their division. So like the Jets
beating the Fed, there's just weird things that that happen
in the NFL. So I mean, you never want to overreact.
I think there's a little more weirdness to Week.

Speaker 2 (11:28):
One, but it was only really yeah, two upsets though,
Like it was the Vegas game and then the only
other one that you could call an upset, which looking
back at the rest of the season now the Chargers
beat the Chiefs in Brazil. Those are literally the only
two upsets. So the Patrios truly were the only team
to fumble as of like favorite in Week one.

Speaker 5 (11:51):
And that Chargers one.

Speaker 1 (11:55):
I'm sorry, good was that the Chargers game in hindsight
isn't even an upset.

Speaker 3 (12:00):
That's what I'm saying. It's like the Chargers.

Speaker 1 (12:02):
Yeah, the Chargers will be favored against the Chiefs right
obviously now with the Ludicon, but I mean even with
my homes go ahead, Stucky.

Speaker 4 (12:10):
Uh yeah, I mean the next week, Jake Browning let
a huge comeback against the Jags. So looking back at that,
that's pretty funny. So yeah, we weird things happen. But
I will say that the Patriots, I mean, if you
look I played, it's not people I plant the flag game,
but I played the Chargers plus three and a half.

(12:34):
I ran my numbers. I'm just I'm slightly blowed free.

Speaker 3 (12:38):
The Chargers this weekend.

Speaker 4 (12:41):
Patriots, of course, you know I mean that that that
Week one game, This is it. I haven't seen this
go around much on a lot of NFL playoffs get
covered so extensive. That Week one game against Gino Smith
was the last time the Patriots didn't face a backup
quarter Week one. I'm kidding, but they've they here are

(13:05):
the quarterbacks that they faced this year. So they lost
to Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers at home. So they
faced they only faced one team with a winning record
all year. That's it. It was the Bills, and they
spill them one.

Speaker 3 (13:20):
Dard had Jackson.

Speaker 2 (13:21):
Dart had more wins against teams above five hundred than
Drake May this year.

Speaker 4 (13:27):
But they they faced I saw, I got ta tweet this.
I think this was a good context because if you look,
they had fourteen wins, eleven came against either backups, benched quarterbacks,
or rookies. Sixty percent of their snaps came against you know,
bottom tier quarterbacks, rookies or backups. The charters, on the

(13:48):
other hand, only like twenty eight percent of their snaps,
So the Patriots had almost double the amount of snaps
against like bottom tier quarterbacks. I mean, you're talking Tua
who was benched. Rattler. So they faced the st the
Saints with Rattler Ward Gabriel, They faced the Browns with Gabriel,
They faced the Bengals with Flacco, the Ravens, the Markets

(14:11):
hurt after twelve plays. They face Huntley Pennix Baker when
he turned back into a pumpkin, and they also were
missing all the rest of their offense fields Yours and
they sat everyone Dart Cook like it goes on and on.
So the other thing, the Chargers do a good job
preventing explosive passing plays. You need to do that against

(14:32):
the Patriots. The Patriots have also been pretty lucky, like
twenty fumbles, only lost eight. They've recovered nine of fourteen.
They're eighteen fourth down the one point three EPA per
play on fourth down, and their opponents are ten of
thirty negative points sixty three EPA pri play on fourth downs.
Their opponents have gone and then May has gotten away.

(14:53):
He's been tremendous, should be the MVP in my opinion,
but he's gotten away with some throws. He has the
eighteen turner worthy plays in the year only eight interceptions.
And this is I think this there is some validity
to an experienced quarterback taking on a quarterback making their
first playoff start. I mean, if you look historically those

(15:18):
the quarterbacks making their first start. I think I have
the numbers here. It is the thirty one percent against
the spread. Depending on how you cut it, you can
remove rookies, you could include rookies. I mean, it's been
Horendous and Herbert twelve two and one when catching over
a field goal. But he has playoff experience. May does not.

(15:39):
There could be some nerves. I do think that has
some value.

Speaker 6 (15:42):
I think the.

Speaker 4 (15:43):
Chargers will make the Patriots drive the field mintor will
throw some different looks at May. I think he might
make a mistake or two here and then in the
red zone. That's when the Charters have been elite. The
forty five percent touchdown percentage this year, that's fourth in
the league. Last year on their minter they were forty
five percent, which was second the league, and the Patriots
redsman defense horrendous thirtieth in the league, and they played

(16:07):
a clown schedule. So the Chargers offense, which can get
bottled up at times inside of twenty, they might be
able to finish off your eyes here. So I just
don't think that this line should be over three. So yeah,
give me, give me the Chargers catching over a field goal.
But I do think that there there is some signal
with these quarterbacks who have playoff experience versus ones making

(16:30):
the first one. That doesn't mean Drake make won't be
incredible and can't win this game, but I do think
that there is something to that, and I.

Speaker 2 (16:38):
Just don't maybe that Herbert is like terrible and massive moments.

Speaker 4 (16:42):
So, I mean, what's the the sample size is so
small and it's like one of those things where like
everyone says this this, this coach can't win it all,
this quarterback can't win it all until they do.

Speaker 3 (16:55):
I don't know.

Speaker 2 (16:56):
He was bad in big moments in college. He obviously
blew that lead to the JAG. I just worry about
him having a negative clutch gene.

Speaker 3 (17:03):
But what does play in their favor?

Speaker 2 (17:04):
I think outside of the forty nine ers, the Patriots
are probably the most hurt team in this postseason.

Speaker 3 (17:08):
Does anybody disagree with that or have like a.

Speaker 5 (17:10):
Different forty nine ers by a mile?

Speaker 3 (17:13):
I said, other than the forty nine ers.

Speaker 4 (17:15):
Oh okay, then the I would argue, maybe the package
it's not listening the Packers for impact through.

Speaker 3 (17:24):
I literally go other than the forty nine ers.

Speaker 4 (17:27):
Fact, I would maybe you say that the Packers because
of Parsons impact.

Speaker 3 (17:30):
Yeah, yeah, that's a good shout.

Speaker 4 (17:33):
Craft you know they have they have a lot of
other injuries. But yeah, I mean the Chargers also basically
they they basically didn't play any backups. They played like
the Commanders and the Colts. And they're fully healthy. They
played six playoff teams, they played a much tougher schedule,
So the Patriots are hard to rate because of that schedule, Right,

(17:53):
you have to give them credit for taking for going
out and destroying a lot of these teams.

Speaker 2 (17:59):
And handling the last time their schedule was this bad,
they won the Super Bowl, though, yeah.

Speaker 4 (18:03):
It doesn't mean they care with the Super Bowl. But
I just don't think there's I mean, if you did
from a DVA perspective before, you have to remove Week
eighteen because the Chargers sat everyone. Yeah, prior to Week eighteen.
I mean, the Pats were fifteenth THEBOA and I think
the Charters were sixteenth. Like, I just don't think there's
that much of a difference between these two teams. And
the Pats don't get elite pressure, which might provide a

(18:27):
little relief for Herbert behind that very broken offensive line,
which is the concern of mine, a huge concern on
the road with the state of that offensive line. But
I also don't think that it's meaningless that the Charters
got to buy last week. So this is late in
the season, right, and the Patriots didn't. They tried in

(18:49):
that game, and I think rightfully so, but there's there's
some I think there's more value late in the year
after a full schedule of resting, prepping for your potential opponent,
and ensuring full health. And Kendrick's right, we'll see on
some of these these injuries, especially on the defensive side

(19:11):
of the ball for the Patriots, and how healthy they are.
But yeah, I think over three, I think this line
should just be three. So I took a three and
a half.

Speaker 1 (19:20):
We might have ourselves a nice little community bet here.
The Chargers plus three and a half do feel like
the right side. Stucky laid out all of the points
for why the Patriots defense could be overrated. How about
the other side. The Patriots have not faced a top
ten defense on their schedule since Week eight against the

(19:42):
Cleveland Browns. It has been since pre Halloween that we
have seen the Patriots truly tested in terms of their
offensive output.

Speaker 5 (19:51):
So they're getting it in terms.

Speaker 4 (19:53):
Of Browns who are not the same defense as well.

Speaker 3 (19:57):
Well, I'm Stucky.

Speaker 2 (19:58):
I can't say for me, I say anything. I'm just
like I hope that they win so that I don't
have to go anywhere else next week. At this point,
I'm like, I could stay home cool.

Speaker 1 (20:10):
I mean, guys, that three in the hook. Both things
can be true here. We can have the Patriots. Patriots
could go on and win the Super Bowl and not
cover this line, So it's very possible. I do think
we've got ourselves a nice little handhold here on the
LA Chargers. One other note for the wild card games

(20:30):
before we get into the deepest, darkest recesses of Kendrick's mind.
I made the ghastly mistake the reason why I was
stuck on the forty nine Ers being the most injured
team going into the postseason. I bet them too early.
I got drunk on the plus three at even money odds,
and it is now up to plus four and a half.

Speaker 5 (20:52):
So we got some.

Speaker 1 (20:53):
News about brock Perty He's dealing with a shoulder issue.
I don't think he's gonna miss the game or anything,
but potentially that's moving the number here. Tatum three on defense.
They're already banged up defense. He's out for the season.
We're still unclear about Trent Williams. George Kittle's still on
the injury report, so is Ricky Pearsall. So obviously I
feel awful about the bet that I've made. We will

(21:14):
sit and live with it and hopefully this is just
one of those instances where AH closing line value, what
does it really mean? Obviously I'm not going to be
ahead of it there, Kendra, Do you want to talk
me off the ledge on this is there?

Speaker 5 (21:27):
Do you have any love for San Francisco?

Speaker 3 (21:31):
Why this fuck did you do this?

Speaker 7 (21:34):
Well?

Speaker 5 (21:34):
I just told you.

Speaker 1 (21:35):
I got drunk on the plus three team number at
even money, and I've been a forty nine ers backer.

Speaker 5 (21:43):
I rate them highly.

Speaker 1 (21:44):
I think that their offense, if they're able to put
up points against Philadelphia, Philly's gonna have a hard time
matching that because of how their offense, even against a
bad d could get stuck in the mud. So that
was the reasoning behind it. Obviously I should have waited
plus four and a half, but I'm not gonna bet
them twice.

Speaker 2 (22:03):
So it's just somehow you sit here after watching their
game the other night where we had multiple, multiple, multiple
TV timeouts, commercial timeouts, injury timeouts in that fourth quarter
and guys just absolutely having to be like yanked off
the field.

Speaker 3 (22:20):
I don't get how that was a.

Speaker 5 (22:21):
Bad I mean, I did hand up. That was a mistake.

Speaker 1 (22:25):
I fully admit that, but I was also encouraged by
the fact that everybody's just focusing on the fact that
they only scored three points or how bad their defense
has been. On the year, they held Seattle to thirteen,
So as bad as their defense has been, it's been
better on the road. Philadelphia has not been a they

(22:46):
have not been a trustable favorite. But obviously it was
a bad bet, so you know, it's hard for me
to just hard for.

Speaker 3 (22:54):
Me to justify it might not be.

Speaker 1 (22:55):
It might it might not be at the results, but
right now it is a bet. Yes, it was about
I'm not gonna because it was a bad idea.

Speaker 4 (23:05):
My speech on the key numbers, but we won't revisit that.

Speaker 5 (23:11):
I deserve to hear this again.

Speaker 4 (23:12):
It wasn't gonna go to two and a half, so
you were way better off waiting on this. Trent Williams'
status obviously looms large. But yeah, I thought I was
gonna be interested in the forty nine ers. I mean
four and a half maybe small, but I mean the injury,
the injuries. All their linebackers are hurt. I mean they

(23:35):
already lost Fred Warner, but Butthune, he's out for the year.
De Winters in ankle injury that didn't look good. And
then Luke Gifford they're starting Sam he had as a
quad injury that they might be without there all there.
They already had backup linebackers. It might be without all
of them, so we'll see how that goes. I think
Pearcell is actually big too, because the one weakness on

(23:56):
this Eagles defense is there their cornerback two position. So
I think that he could have a big game if
he's in there. But if you look at this forty
nine ers offense, yeah, they put up some gaudy numbers,
but if you dig in, like to end the year,
party was red hot. Against the Seahawks, an elite defense

(24:18):
three points at home, couldn't do anything. Against the Browns
in Cleveland, an elite defense couldn't do anything. They had
two hundred and fifty total yards. They averaged three point
eight yards per play. Don't be fooled by the final scores.
The Browns gifting him a lot of short fields.

Speaker 6 (24:35):
You know.

Speaker 4 (24:36):
Against the Panthers they didn't and who were a below
average defense, they didn't look great. So like they put
up all these numbers on the Colts without any corners
the Titans and the Bears with an impoverished defense, and
then the Cardinals who had no one left. So I
think the forty nine ers offense got a little bit
overrated down the stretch. And you know, without Trent Williams,

(24:57):
it's not the same unit. They still can't run the ball.
And then without their li this might be a game
where the Eagles offense can actually get some things going.
I don't know. This is like the immovable force meets
an unstoppable object. That's the Eagles offense first to forty
nine Ers defense.

Speaker 2 (25:12):
I just prefer Rabbits is getting so sadly.

Speaker 1 (25:16):
I've been I've been said well before we started recording,
I was I I look for opportunities.

Speaker 4 (25:23):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (25:24):
And this isn't a justification I bet a bad number.
I mean, it is what it is. But I look
for opportunities to bet into lines where I can eliminate
the veig I feel for my and this is Major
League Baseball betting, NBA betting, NFL betting.

Speaker 5 (25:37):
College football.

Speaker 1 (25:39):
I have my best chance of profiting in the long
term is not paying the books their tax, and so
I look for those opportunities on numbers and teams that
I like I knew I was gonna be on San
Francisco when I got the even money at the three.
You know I that I chose to bite on it.
So that was the reasoning behind it from a mass perspective.

(26:00):
But I mean none of that is obviously I would
pay up to get the four and a half at
this point minus one ten.

Speaker 5 (26:07):
It's it's just a bad bet.

Speaker 4 (26:08):
Yeah, I mean, you know your best the best thing
you can do to improve your chances to get the
best number possible. But I will say that the other
thing is Fangio's own Shannan in the past. I mean,
Shannan has faced to me there's an offensive coordinator or
head coach five times he's yet to clear fifteen points.
And like the Fangio defense was, I mean pretty much

(26:29):
this version of it was created to slow down and
contain everything that the Shanahan offense does. So that's another
factor here. I mean, what the the forty nine ers
hope here? They do have a huge coaching advantage when
it comes to sala versus patula. I mean, you have

(26:50):
to attack this forty nine Ers defense over the middle
of the field. The Leagles don't really throw the middle
field they just throw like a million hitch routes. They
it's it's the ugliest offense in the league. So what
these for the forty nine ers at the personnel is
don't I'm not sure because they cannot get any pressure
if they don't have any linebackers left. It's not in

(27:12):
the elite corner room. So the hope here for Sala.
He's got to throw some you know, simulated pressure, some
disguised looks, but what he's mostly gonna do is play
a ton of zone. He's gonna play a ton of two.
I was gonna keep everything in front of him, and
then he's gonna dare the Eagles to finish off drives
with touchdowns. They've done that at a leee level. This year.

(27:33):
There's seventy percent touchdown percentage in the red zone. Can
they maintain that? I don't think so. I mean, last
year their offense was way better with a way better
coordinator and they were at fifty eight percent. So maybe
there's some regression there. But maybe the forty nine Ers
defense is just that bad that they continue scoring touchdowns.
But that has to be the forty nine Ers game plan.

(27:53):
The Eagles offense will go into a shell for extended periods.
They'll put themselves in prison and in offense jail, and
they won't score for a quarter or two. The other
quarter or two, you got to hold in the field
goals because this is an elite Eagles defense that I
think will contain that forty nine ers offense on the road,

(28:15):
So you're gonna have to win a low scoring game.
There's some wins, so I think the player is the
under I don't want to spoil Kendres. I'll say some
of that for Kendre later, but yeah, there's a lot
of things pointed the Eagles here. I am surprised. They
also got a buy last week, so I think that's valuable.
They stay at home. How to buy forty nine ers,

(28:36):
you know, coming across the country. That's not in that.
Because the Eagles had some injuries, they get to heal
up come into this a lot healthier rest up late
in the year. But I was I still was semi
surprised they didn't play their starters. They chose health. But
this is this the NFC's wide open. That could mean

(28:56):
the difference between an NFC championship game at home. We're
not and Sirianni for what it's worth, these five and
er in the playoffs at home, oh and two on
the road. But yeah, I wish you well.

Speaker 5 (29:08):
Thank you. I appreciate that I've been my number ones ages, my.

Speaker 1 (29:14):
My numbers, which create the baseline for me, for I
don't bet blindly off of that, nobody should, but just
creates a baseline.

Speaker 5 (29:21):
Have been high on the forty nine ers all year.

Speaker 1 (29:23):
The forty nine ers have covered at a rate of
sixty three percent, so I have been on the plus
end of that, and hopefully we're just we just need.

Speaker 4 (29:30):
One number and move on. It's okay. I take pant
numbers all the time, not all sometimes.

Speaker 5 (29:36):
Thank you. I appreciate thoughts and prayers with yours. Truly.

Speaker 1 (29:39):
We are about to dive into our plant the flag games.
Forty nine ers plus three will not be it for me,
But first a word from our very own Kendrim Middleton.

Speaker 8 (29:48):
The Favorites podcast has teamed up with Draftking Sports Book,
where new customers can bet five dollars and get three
hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins.
Staying on the action and use bonus bets on Draftking
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(30:10):
in bonus bets.

Speaker 3 (30:11):
If your bet wins, the crown is yours.

Speaker 1 (30:14):
All right, Kendra, we kick it over to you before
we plant the flag. What is on your mind today?

Speaker 3 (30:24):
But this is.

Speaker 2 (30:31):
Something that's been haunting me literally all season long.

Speaker 3 (30:34):
The Meal Mix Podcast.

Speaker 2 (30:36):
If you guys don't know what the Meal Mixed Podcast is,
it's a Panther's fan podcast that's been going on for
probably like a decade now, I would assume, And before
the season started, I want to say it was like
three weeks into the season, maybe their wives were like,
all right, listen, you need to start spending time with
the family. No more Meal Mix Podcast. Meal Mixed Podcast
gets canceled. Panthers now go on.

Speaker 3 (30:58):
To be in the postseason.

Speaker 2 (31:00):
So my question for you guys is if your wives
were like, whatever brings you joy that you do with
the boys, whether it's like gambling for you guys specifically,
or if it's like you guys do fantasy.

Speaker 3 (31:12):
Football or you do a podcast.

Speaker 2 (31:15):
If your team was in such a drought and you
knew it and could get ahead of it, would you
give up your gambling, your fantasy football, your podcast, whatever
it is sports related that you do with the boys
for your team to get out of like a historic rut?

Speaker 3 (31:30):
Would you give it up?

Speaker 2 (31:31):
Because this is I literally think this is embarrassing. I
think about the Meyomicks podcast at least twice a day.

Speaker 5 (31:37):
That's an insane number.

Speaker 2 (31:40):
Like genuinely, maybe more like I'm not kidding, but I
daily am like, yo, I wonder what the guys from
Yami's are doing right now.

Speaker 5 (31:47):
This is an easy one for me.

Speaker 1 (31:49):
I mean, my team has been in a rut since
I was at the last playoff win for the Miami Dolphins.

Speaker 5 (31:55):
I was in high school when it happened, was like
that long ago.

Speaker 1 (32:01):
That was the year right, oh, two thousand. It was
Jay Fiedler against Peyton Manning down to.

Speaker 3 (32:08):
The wire, And do you give up gambling?

Speaker 5 (32:11):
I would not know. I would not.

Speaker 1 (32:13):
I wouldn't. I'm used to the misery. I can live.
I've been I've made it this far. I'm doing fine,
So I just I would.

Speaker 3 (32:18):
Come for super.

Speaker 4 (32:22):
No.

Speaker 5 (32:22):
No, I just wouldn't. I just wouldn't.

Speaker 4 (32:24):
I don't know like you say. You say what you
do with your boys or what you do. My entire
life is betting. Like literally from the time of wake up, Well.

Speaker 2 (32:36):
Their life was me mix, but that was a side hustle.

Speaker 4 (32:41):
That is my entire life, betting, like what I do recreationally,
what I do professionally, what I enjoy doing, what I
have to do everything, how what I do with my friends,
like the It consumes my life. So now the.

Speaker 2 (32:55):
City of Baltimore is about I wouldn't give it up
for twenty straight Super Bowl Duckies.

Speaker 5 (33:01):
Teams also experience. You've experienced multiple Super Bowls, so I think, yes,
it's easier for you to.

Speaker 4 (33:06):
Get so No, but I think that the Meomicks guys
should come back like this would have been No, would
have been a perfect marketing opportunity.

Speaker 3 (33:15):
I see that they tweet beautiful yeahs had to die.

Speaker 2 (33:19):
They literally did their like floating raft on fire down
the Nile River.

Speaker 3 (33:24):
It's over.

Speaker 2 (33:24):
You guys can never come back. You freed the sad
Cats just let it die.

Speaker 4 (33:30):
They have a tweet. The refs are killing any chance.
The Panthers haven't winning this game. The refs were bad
for in that game, but they are still tweeting. But like,
I would have never known about the Mayomics pockets. This
didn't happen, so like it was an opportunity for them
to maybe cover. But no, it seems like that that
ship has sailed.

Speaker 3 (33:49):
Celine Dion, my heart will go on to close it
out there.

Speaker 4 (33:54):
But would you give up breeding shrimp for a Jags Lucky?

Speaker 2 (33:57):
Yes, Yes, absolutely, I would. Literally I would sell a kidney.
And I'm not even kidding, like I would do you
Dney anything.

Speaker 3 (34:10):
Yeah, super Bowl. I don't think you guys understand.

Speaker 2 (34:13):
Like you like you can at least these Kravits hang
your hat on the fact that the Dolphins were good
at one point. Stucky's experienced multiple Super Bowls. I don't
think you guys understand just the pain and misery that
I have gone through as a sports fan. It's actually
I'm I'm mentally this. I could sue the Jaguars for
like mental distress.

Speaker 4 (34:35):
Yeah, You're gonna have one kidney the rest of your
life if.

Speaker 3 (34:40):
It meant dude. Yeah, honestly, does anybody.

Speaker 4 (34:43):
In jam.

Speaker 5 (34:47):
You need to you need to check your priorities.

Speaker 2 (34:50):
I don't know, I feel like the Jaguars are my priority.

Speaker 3 (34:55):
You want to see what hangs above my desk?

Speaker 1 (34:57):
Please hold should be beaten down by I sh'll be
beaten down by them.

Speaker 5 (35:01):
But by the time.

Speaker 3 (35:02):
I was born in this and it is framed, Oh
my god.

Speaker 4 (35:06):
All right, Well, then would you if your passion is
the Jags, would you give up the Jags for one
to win the Super Bowl this year so you get
to experience it, but.

Speaker 3 (35:20):
Then give them up like you're never fed.

Speaker 4 (35:23):
Again, Like you can't root for them, you can't watch
any of their games.

Speaker 3 (35:27):
Can I go to the Super Bowl this year?

Speaker 4 (35:29):
You get to enjoy it all they win the Super Bowl,
but then the rest of your life there's.

Speaker 3 (35:32):
No do I get to go to the game?

Speaker 4 (35:34):
Sure?

Speaker 3 (35:35):
Then yeah, I would give it up.

Speaker 4 (35:37):
Wow. See I think that part of like part of
the what makes the Super winning a Super Bowl suite
is now some tends. You know, if you're a brownspan
or a Vikings fan, like there's you could There's been
many that have died without diehards that have without seeing one.
But like the journey of the the heartbreaks, the the

(36:00):
way that season's end, the bad years, the rebuilds, the
different quarterback and then that journey of like suffering through
it as a fan, and then you never know when
you're gonna get there.

Speaker 5 (36:11):
But uh.

Speaker 6 (36:14):
Maybe.

Speaker 4 (36:14):
I mean, look, the Jags have they have a wind,
they have a window here. I mean, like you look
at some of their young talent, Liam Cohen, not a lot.

Speaker 2 (36:23):
Of guys that they have to worry about in the
off season bringing back.

Speaker 3 (36:26):
That's like the big thing for me is the contrary
some of these.

Speaker 4 (36:29):
Young secondary pieces that are coming along like Monterret Brown.
Antonio Johnson out of nowhere is playing amazing.

Speaker 2 (36:36):
I think he's now They're doing all of this without
their first round draft pick, yeah, which.

Speaker 4 (36:41):
Is basically they just don't have him this year. In
Travis Hunter.

Speaker 3 (36:45):
Said the same thing as me. Yeah, what's that? Evan
just said the same thing as me.

Speaker 4 (36:51):
Yeah. I mean, so they have a window here. But
it's an exciting time in Jacksonville. I'm I'm just excited
for the crowd there.

Speaker 3 (37:02):
You guys will get to see me after the game
on Sunday.

Speaker 4 (37:04):
So I wis night game? Now, that game, I think that's.

Speaker 3 (37:08):
The most big Like that should be Monday night for sure.

Speaker 4 (37:11):
Like I think Pats Chargers is cool Packers Bears is cool,
but I think like the most.

Speaker 2 (37:17):
We're getting Texan Steelers on Monday Night, Like that's who
cares the most.

Speaker 5 (37:21):
Arguably the worst game of the weekend.

Speaker 4 (37:23):
The most entertaining game is I mean, and look at
the total is Jackson Buffalo. So I wish that was,
but it'll be, it'll be. It'll be great regardless.

Speaker 5 (37:34):
So we will get Kendra on the Sunday Night episode.

Speaker 3 (37:37):
Correct, Yes, my mom's gonna pick me up.

Speaker 5 (37:41):
This could be.

Speaker 1 (37:44):
Let's get to our Plant the Flag games presented by
Draft Kings, where the crown is yours.

Speaker 4 (37:52):
It shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here. Okay,
you're really.

Speaker 5 (37:55):
Planning your flag in that deck, Kendra.

Speaker 1 (37:58):
There was a tease for this earlier in the episode,
the forty nine Ers and the Eagles.

Speaker 5 (38:03):
Are you on the total?

Speaker 3 (38:05):
I am. I'm gonna plant my flag on the under
in this game.

Speaker 2 (38:08):
Forty nine Ers obviously hurt top to bottom in the Eagles,
We've talked about it all season. Go a half without
being able to score, This feels pretty high for me.
I'm gonna go with the under forty four and a
half in this game.

Speaker 5 (38:21):
Yep, I like it. I was looking at.

Speaker 1 (38:23):
I'm looking at potentially playing just the slate of unders.
I've got two right now that are on the sheet,
Carolina LA being one of them, the other LA team
and the New England Patriots going under there. And this
is another one that I have circled as a possibility
if the forty nine ers can't move the ball against
an elite defense. And part of the reason why I

(38:45):
like San Francisco in this game to begin with is
that I don't trust the Eagles offense at all because
most of the season they've been trash. Then the under
this game should tilt under. So in potential weather in
the Northeast, you never know what that's going to look like.
I haven't seen the updated report, but I like it. Stucky,
your thoughts on that and you're playing the flag, Yeah, I.

Speaker 4 (39:06):
Already played, Dad that under forty four is key. Forty
five is also key, So shop around, Evan. If you
look this up, look up wild card weekend unders in
outdoor games over what is our database? Go back to
two thousand and three outdoor games wild card weekend total

(39:29):
above forty four unders have like been a smash. So
since two thousand and four, outdoor wildcard games are forty
nine and twenty three to the under sixty eight percent
at forty one or higher forty two and fourteen, how
about forty four and higher forty four and a half,

(39:51):
So above forty four, which is a key forty three,
forty four to forty five our key numbers, but I
mean above forty one. It's forty two and fourteen, so outdoor,
there's gonna be some wins here as well. It's so
early to know exactly what the wins are gonna look like,
but there could. It looks like there's gonna be impactful
gusts which could impact field goal kicking and downfield passing.

(40:13):
And uh yeah, uh, I like that under a lot.
I'm going to plant my flag on the Jags first
half money line. So I think that this. I think

(40:34):
that I don't mind the Jags for the full game,
but I'm more confident in them early in this game.
And part of that reason, well, number one, they have
been incredible in the first half of games all season,
and a lot of that is the Liam Cohen script.
And like, if you look so Jags they are, they're

(40:56):
offensive numbers. They're all top ten first quarter top ten
same with the are like eighth in EPA per play
in the first half, eighth in the first quarter. In
the second half, the Bills are number one, fourth quarter
number one, the Jags EPA play twenty first in the
second half, thirty first in the fourth quarter. Now, part
of that is because they've had a lot of blowout wins.

(41:17):
They've benched some starters in the fourth quarter. So let's
just focus on the quarterbacks. Lawrence in the first half
thirteenth in EPA plus completion percentage of her expectation fourteenth
and adjusted EPA per play thirteenth and success rate. So
around twelfth, thirteenth, fourteenth, Allen in the first half twenty
fifth an EPA plus completion percentage over expectation twenty first

(41:40):
and adjusted EPA per play twenty fourth and success rate.
How about the second half, Lawrence thirty second, EPA plus
completion percentage of expectation twenty first and adjusted EPA per
play twenty first and success rate Allen second first, second first.
A lot of that is because of the script, and

(42:00):
a lot of that is because the Bills they will
come out and they run too much. You know, they
want to establish the run, and the Jags about a
top five run defense all year, and then what happens is, oh,
we're either behind. They've been slow starters in their big
games almost all year, and then you won Lee Shallon
and this Jags pass defense has played a lot better.
I mean since week eleven, I think number two in

(42:21):
EPA per dropback allowed. I talked about Antonio Johnson is
playing really well. They no longer have to play thorn
Hill monterk Brown has really came on with the injury
to Jordan Lewis. Their second is playing better. But you
look at the schedule and you're like, who have they
really played? So I could see Allen in the second
half from a trailing game script leading the Bills to

(42:45):
a comeback victory. He's been incredible in the fourth quarter,
incredible in the second half. The Bill's slow starters because
they want to run the ball. Their script isn't great.
The Cohen script is great. The Bill's run defense is bad.
I think the Jags can take advantage when they can
run the balls. Kendricks said. The entire offense stems from there.
Lawrence has been incredible since Week eleven, and a lot

(43:05):
of that improvement has come against zone that's what the
Bills do. They're gonna run a ton of zone here.
So I like the Jags behind that home crowd, with
the Cohen script, with the Bills leading too much on
the ground game early against a good run, dye to
jump out, have a lead at the half, try to
hold on, but wouldn't be surprised if Alan comes from
behind making some magic. So give me the Jags first

(43:29):
half money line.

Speaker 1 (43:32):
That's a really creative way to play the Jaguars. It's
hard to get to the window on Jacksonville. I want
to Maybe I get there. But Josh Allen I'm terrified
to bet against him and the Bills as just as
a team overall, I have more experience in these situations.

Speaker 5 (43:54):
Allen has not.

Speaker 1 (43:55):
Been good on the road in the playoffs or the
Bills in general.

Speaker 5 (43:59):
I don't think they've it's been good.

Speaker 4 (44:00):
It's the Bills deep the Bills to run them down.

Speaker 1 (44:02):
They haven't won a playoff game on the road, I
think since since Thurman Thomas was their running back.

Speaker 5 (44:07):
So it's been a minute.

Speaker 4 (44:08):
Yeah, I mean a lot of that's the Chiefs. But
the another thing, if you want the who's the most
profitable home team against the spread? This year. The Jags
first half. The Jags they covered in the first half
by an average of seven and a half points per game.
That's incredible at home. The Bills three and five against

(44:29):
the spread in the first half on the road, not
covering by an average of four points per game. So yeah,
I h a lot of people, by the way, there's
a lot of people that are I'm hearing saying the
Jags rushing attack is broken, because if you look so
since Jacobe Myers and then Strange came back around week eleven,

(44:50):
the Jags offense has been I mean their their second
in drop back EPA or third, I should say, fourth
in drop back success rate, But over that stretch they're
thirty first in rush success rate. So you look over
since week eleven, you're like, all right, the Jags are
the second worst rushing offense. So that's not good against

(45:12):
what's wrong with the Jags rushing offense? I don't think
there's anything wrong with it. If you just focus on
the first half, they're tenth. Those numbers are being skewed
by the fact that you know they've won what eight
in a row. I think they're eight and one over
the past time games, six of those nine games have
come by at least two touchdowns. They were just running

(45:34):
the clock out in the fourth quarter. Their rush success
rate in the fourth quarter since week eleven is twenty percent.
It's the worst by far. So it's just like, hey,
we're up seventeen, who cares and you have backups in
you're just running into the wall and punning it. So
their rushing offense is still fine, it's top ten in
the first half since week eleven. It's their passing offense
that has taken off with Jakobe Myers and strange back.

(45:55):
So I think that they can run the ball fine
here against the Bills who have a really bad run defense,
and the screens. Screens can work against his Bills team,
so I think Cohen Early has some nice creative screens
drawn up. I think the Jags also have a special
team's edge. Who's kicking for the Bills this week? We
don't even know. The Jags have cam little good punter,

(46:16):
good return game. So I think there's a lot of
reasons to like the Jags. The reasons to like the Bills,
and it's valid is just like, Okay, the Bills are
probably going to get behind and they're going to say, Alan,
go win the game. He's more than capable of doing that.

Speaker 1 (46:31):
Yeah, sometimes dudes just win games in the playoffs in sports, Kendra,
any pushback on that for your squad.

Speaker 2 (46:38):
No, because I don't really trust who the Bills are
right now. But I also really don't trust the Jaguars.
So the Jags seem like the better side just because
of the momentum that they have in the season that
they've had. But it's hard to get behind a team
that you haven't trusted for a long time.

Speaker 3 (46:55):
So I do I think that I agree with you.
I think that's a creative way to play it.

Speaker 2 (46:58):
The thing that makes me nervous is that Trevor Lawrence
is the guy who, when he has a lead, can't
keep it, and when he doesn't, has the game of
his life.

Speaker 3 (47:08):
So that's the only thing that concerns me.

Speaker 4 (47:11):
Yeah, My main concern with the Jags is because I mean,
we've just been a Jags podcast all year. I love
them all. I bet them the win the division to
go over to make the playoffs. I saw it with
this Jags team, and I didn't think they were going
to be this good, especially on offense, and I didn't
think that Jocoby Myers is gonna be this good. But

(47:32):
I've always believed in Cohen. They're the hottest team in
the league right now. But you look and since Myers
got here, I mean, they blew that game against the
Texans and Davis Mills. They here's who they beat to
close the ear the Cardinals in overtime, the Titans, the Colts,

(47:54):
the Jets, the Colts again, the Titans again. The game
that gives me confidence is when they went to Denver
and destroyed the Broncos. But other than that, I mean,
it's the Colts twice with all their injuries, the Titans twice,
the Jets who are tanking, the Cardinals with all their injuries.
So but there's two games in there the two months

(48:16):
when they destroyed the Chargers and they destroyed the Broncos
in Denver that do give me confidence in this Jags team.
But the schedule definitely has been beneficial down the stretch.
But I can't wait for that game.

Speaker 1 (48:29):
I will be planting my flag on the Carolina Panthers.
Plus ten against the l A Rams had to fit
the sad Cats in here.

Speaker 5 (48:39):
A lot of.

Speaker 2 (48:40):
Crazy to me that you trust them more than you
trust the Jags.

Speaker 1 (48:44):
Uh well they Well it's a much fatter number for
one playing a flag.

Speaker 4 (48:49):
On Eagles minus four and a half.

Speaker 1 (48:50):
So yeah, Garrett, and then and then watching the Eagles
would win by four, I'd lose both bets. That'll be great.
A lot of reasons to like the Panthers at this number.
This is not about this is not about trust versus Jacksonville.

Speaker 5 (49:05):
I'm probably gonna s I'm probably gonna end.

Speaker 1 (49:08):
Up betting the Jag So just it's just going to
take me a minute. I'm like slow crawling my way
to the window on that. We have ourselves a ten,
the seventh most common outcome in the last ten years.

Speaker 5 (49:18):
Okay, we're talking key numbers.

Speaker 1 (49:20):
The Panthers off a loss this season eight to zero
against the spread road favorites of four more in the playoffs,
thank you, Evan, one and eight ats. So there are
some strong trends that point to the underdog here. And
then from a football perspective, the Rams have not been
playing their best ball as of late. They just fired

(49:40):
their special teams coach two weeks ago because they were
in such disarray. They're one and two straight up in
their last three. They had a just a three point
lead over the Cardinals headed into the fourth quarter in
Week eighteen. I don't love the fact that old man
Matt Stafford had to play deep into that game. The
Panthers have a one day rest advantage after they played
on Saturday, and I think you can downgrade the Rams.

(50:02):
We already saw this in Carolina indoor team playing outside
on the East Coast. McVeigh for the record has been
good on the East Coast, but still historically a tough
spot for NFL teams. Los Angeles just one win in
their last four road games. I'm taking the Panthers at
plus ten.

Speaker 4 (50:24):
That fascinating game for I don't have much confidence in
the Panthers offense. I'm actually leaning this is another under.
I'm leaning outdoor under. You might say, like, let's look
at the first meeting. It was thirty one to twenty eight.
That game just got ridiculous because I mean the Rams
started the game with a kick return to like the thirty,

(50:45):
and they had a thirty yard touchdown drive. Then there
was a pick six. The Panthers scored on a third
and eight, a fourth and three bomb, and a fourth
and two bomb like so, and the game got just
was kills from that. I don't have much faith in
this Panthers offense doing much, but they're going to like

(51:06):
control the clock like they had like an eight minute
drive in that game that went like twenty eight yards.
The most fascinating matchup to me in that game is
the Panthers defense against the Rams offense. Now, the Panthers
defense is a weird bunch, like some weeks to look
really feisty. Even though they don't have a lot of talent,
they can't get pressure, and a lot of that is

(51:28):
their defensive coordinator Evro, who I really like he a lot.
He runs a lot of cover three base, but they
disguise coverages more than any team in the NFL, close
to fifty percent at the time. Stafford has historically struggled
against those teams, and he's also struggled against his You
look at where he struggled this year, it's against his

(51:50):
ex coordinators Morris and Evra, who was with McVeigh for
a while, and by the way, against Evro this year,
the McVeigh, Shannan Tree, Purdy Love Stafford did nothing against
the Panthers. They had their worst. They had their as
far as interceptions are concerned. Now you might say, and

(52:11):
you can go back. I mean when Stafford has played
Morrison even in the past, he's not had great games,
you might say, well, look stuck. The Rams put up,
you know, twenty eight points with a pick six and
they averaged over seven yards per play. Yes, the Panthers
were missing all of their starting linebackers Morig, their starting

(52:32):
safety was suspended, their best corner, J. C. Horn was
out with a concussion. Remember going into that game and
the spread was ten. The Panthers defense was a shell unit,
an absolute shell unit. I mean, their best safety, their
best corner, the two best linebackers all didn't play in
the game. So their defense is going to now there's
some injury questions in linebacker, but their secondary is going

(52:54):
to be much healthier this time around. So that I
wouldn't say, okay, because the Rams did this in the
first meeting, that it's going to be as easy this
time around, because the Panthers should be much healthier on defense.
But I find that interesting that that ero the familiarity
with the McVeigh offense, with Stafford and who we struggled with,

(53:20):
and how that plays out, and if there's some mcday
adjustments we've seen mcday in the past. Just go like, hey,
I'm going to go with a completely different formation tendencies
for this entire game. I'm fascinated on that side of
the ball. So the Panthers defense might actually be a
little bit more feisty than people might think here, So
uh take I could only take the ten, but I'm
also leaning under there. I don't know. That's my rambling thoughts.

Speaker 2 (53:42):
I have a random complaint that back to back Saturdays,
we're just getting the NFC.

Speaker 4 (53:50):
Why you you you need you need mix it up
on days.

Speaker 3 (53:54):
I just want to see one of each.

Speaker 2 (53:56):
I would like this to be a little bit more
split back to back South. I've watched NFC football, and yes,
I think whoever wins the NFC is going to win
the Super Bowl, but the AFC is more entertaining right now.
Very random, very weird complaint, just back to back some Saturdays.

Speaker 3 (54:11):
I've been like, why then you gotta.

Speaker 4 (54:12):
Have short rest for certain teams just to appease Kender,
But maybe we'll we'll put a call.

Speaker 1 (54:17):
I would easily easily swap the Packers Bears for the
Steelers Texans, like the Texans have been relegated to Saturday
every year they've been in the playoffs for the last
several years. I'm really surprised. Maybe they switched it up
just for that reason. But doesn't it feel like the
Texans always play on Saturday in the playoffs?

Speaker 4 (54:37):
Yeah, they always a This is the first time ever
that they made the playoffs that they won't play on
that opening Saturday. But Texan Steelers has a lot bigger
draw than I mean, the Panthers. I think they made
the right choice. You stick that that's the worst game.
It's the biggest spread by the way the Steelers, Evan
can look at Yeah, ESPN's it just basically comes down
to networks. ESPN wanted the AFC North. Evan, you you

(55:00):
might look this up. You can look this up because
this is probably this has to be the first playoff
game this year. As I played them in the night,
the Steelers, I believe, not lost a Monday night game
in like thirty eight years.

Speaker 5 (55:09):
Oh god, that's gonna be on the pregame show. Yeah.

Speaker 4 (55:12):
No, I think it's little since like the eighties.

Speaker 2 (55:15):
That's what I said this Sunday. I think the Steelers
could win this freaking game.

Speaker 1 (55:22):
Of course, I'm trying to find reasons, ladies and gentlemen.
I'm going up and down the list on all these games.
I don't like a single favorite.

Speaker 2 (55:33):
No me either, me either, No me either, cravits, it's
killing me. I'm like, they're like, I can't feeling.

Speaker 1 (55:39):
I know that all the dogs aren't going to win,
but you know, just or pick thems essentially.

Speaker 4 (55:46):
Yeah, they're like there a lot of them are pick thems.

Speaker 1 (55:50):
I just wonder if I'm all the thing I'm trying
to assess here is am I overconfident in the playoff dog?

Speaker 5 (55:57):
But I like this thing.

Speaker 1 (55:59):
If I had bet it right now, I would take
the Steelers plus three and a half. When we hop
off this podcast, I will be betting the Chargers plus
three and a half. I've already taken the forty nine
Ers at a bad number. I'm on the Panthers plus ten,
and if I end up on Packers Bears, I'd be
on the Packers. I'm probably not gonna end up betting
all of these games. I'm gonna leave some off the two, but.

Speaker 4 (56:18):
Don't over think of the back The Backers could close.
I think they're gonna close as a vapor. Then then
what then you're on a dog is a favorite, Well.

Speaker 1 (56:24):
I would I wouldn't just bet a favorite to bet
a favorite, but what I would do is say I
might be be over exposing myself to the dogs and
just not bet it.

Speaker 4 (56:32):
I think I know what I'm saying. The Packers might
end up as a favorite, So then like the don't
don't don't overthink it.

Speaker 5 (56:40):
I love my I love my stucky pep talks. They
get me through the season.

Speaker 6 (56:44):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (56:44):
That's like when someone's like, well this this this quarterback
as an underdog is like blah blah blah. When this
spread is one, and I'm like, all right, well if
they close minus one, it's no longer a good bet.
They're not gonna win now, But as always, just get
the best number.

Speaker 5 (57:01):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (57:01):
I don't love any favorites like rams Pants. I haven't
bet it yet with Lean Panthers, Packers, Bears. I bet
the Packers. Talk about that on Thursday Bill's Jags. I
bet the Jags first half lean Jags. But these are
all coin flips. But forty nine Ers Eagles, I don't
like the forty nine Ers. Now, I'm just on that
under Chargers Pats. I like the Chargers Texans Steelers. I

(57:22):
have no idea yet. I can't like I wanted to
bet that under but I mean it's thirty nine and
a half. Is that's low like that, especially with two
defenses that can cause havoc, can create short fields like
So we'll talk about that game more on Thursday. I

(57:43):
still have to break that one down. I have no
clue what I'm doing there.

Speaker 1 (57:47):
Evan Abrams, come and join us. Time for the primer
courtesy of one Evan Abrams. What are the trends that
we need to be aware of before we go firing away?

Speaker 5 (57:57):
I dug through the primer.

Speaker 1 (57:58):
I read every word of this bad Boy, A beautiful
read this week, Evan.

Speaker 7 (58:03):
I appreciate that, all right, So let me answer some
stucky questions. So, yeah, we talked about first playoff starts
versus experience twenty and thirty nine against a spread thirty
four percent since division realignment to twenty and forty straight up.
So that'd be Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, Drake May So
that one is always going to be in line whenever
we talk about playoff, especially the start of it. To

(58:25):
answer your question on the Monday night football thing, So
dating back to ninety two. Steelers are twenty three and
one playing on a Monday. Their only loss was against
the Commanders in twenty twenty when we had to move
the game to a Monday. So many people will say that,
you know, in front of a crowd, they haven't lost
since nineteen ninety two at home on Monday night football,

(58:46):
which is.

Speaker 6 (58:46):
Always a fun one and always we talked about this
as well.

Speaker 7 (58:48):
Rogers is great on Monday Night football, twelve and two
in his career, so he's done that pretty well himself.

Speaker 6 (58:54):
I mean the other one on.

Speaker 4 (58:55):
A Monday night, that that's Commander Steelers game.

Speaker 7 (58:58):
Yeah, we moved it to a Monday, which you know
not technically Monday night football. But if it says Monday,
I'm tossing no.

Speaker 4 (59:05):
But I wouldn't be Yeah, I wouldn't be confident that's
Monday Night. Like I remember they moved The Ravens played
the Steelers that year on a Wednesday afternoon. Do you
remember that. There was like widespread outbreaks and they're like,
we got to get this game in and they played
on a Wednesday afternoon.

Speaker 6 (59:24):
Yeah, chaos, And then they.

Speaker 4 (59:26):
Had to play on like four so someone at one
of them had to play on four days rest, so
I wasn't sure if that might have been like a Monday.
I don't remember that game. Who was Steelers Commanders.

Speaker 6 (59:35):
Steelers command that was the for their first loss of
the season.

Speaker 4 (59:39):
That was, Yes, I bet the Commanders that game. That
was that fraudulent Steelers team.

Speaker 6 (59:43):
That was eleven PM on a Monday.

Speaker 4 (59:45):
Yes see, it wasn't at night.

Speaker 6 (59:48):
So Monday football, but.

Speaker 4 (59:50):
Monday night football at home.

Speaker 7 (59:52):
They haven't lost, correct, I think I think the better
I think the better one is like in front of
a crowd, right like you have you have like the
terrible Towels, the you know and renegade. They haven't lost
twenty three in a row, thank you?

Speaker 6 (01:00:04):
Yes, you know?

Speaker 4 (01:00:05):
The quarterback was to beat the Steelers the game their
first loss. The Commander has won that game?

Speaker 6 (01:00:09):
Was it? Heineke?

Speaker 4 (01:00:10):
Alex Smith?

Speaker 6 (01:00:12):
Alex Smith?

Speaker 3 (01:00:12):
Wow?

Speaker 7 (01:00:16):
What else do I have for you? I mean, Kraviit
you mentioned this as well. But there's like a few
ways to look at Carolina. So double digit underdogs, terrible
five and thirteen against the spreads in twenty eleven, but
when they're at home four plus points, they're eight to oh.

Speaker 6 (01:00:29):
Over the last fifty years, so at.

Speaker 7 (01:00:32):
Home in the playoffs getting four points or more eight
and to o against the spread, which is you look
at that Carolina game. There's so many ways to kind
of cut the pie. Just pick a side, take it
for what you will. I will say this, this one
took a little bit to look at. So the Jaguars
enter the playoffs not only winning eight straight, but covering
eight straight. It's only happened one other time in the

(01:00:53):
Super Bowl era. That was the Saints in twenty eleven
and twelve. So this is one of the hottest teams
could remember from a straight up and ats perspective entering
the playoffs, which is fun in itself. And then you
look at the Texans. They've won nine in a rown
during the playoffs, which isn't exactly the best thing. Those
teams six and nineteen against the spreads in two thousand

(01:01:13):
and two, five and fourteen when they're a favorite and
going into Pittsburgh should be an interesting scenario.

Speaker 4 (01:01:19):
Is there any do you have anything in there about
teams on I think I've looked into this before and
there's nothing there but teams on a losing streak going
into the playoffs. It's probably rare but like the Packers
have lost what four straight?

Speaker 7 (01:01:32):
Yeah, so they would only be the fourth team to
lose four straight games entering the playoffs.

Speaker 6 (01:01:39):
The Steelers did it last year, the Lions in ninety nine,
the Jets, and eighty six. I think they went like two.

Speaker 7 (01:01:45):
And two wild carters so in their first game, but
none of those teams made the conference championship, so it
usually shows that there isn't long term longevity for that team.
But either way, nonetheless kind of fascinating.

Speaker 4 (01:01:57):
Yes, bus the Packers just booted, literally punted Week eighteen.

Speaker 7 (01:02:02):
And the other thing was this, so overall we've seen
thirteen teams in the Super Bowl area have a four
plus game straight up losing streak that bled into December
or later.

Speaker 6 (01:02:11):
So this late in the season, teams whould just fall apart.
Ten of those.

Speaker 7 (01:02:15):
Thirteen teams lost in the wildcard round, twelve of thirteen
in the divisional So it really does have a ceiling
for those teams who have had losing streaks late.

Speaker 5 (01:02:23):
Does that apply to anybody else but Green Bay?

Speaker 6 (01:02:26):
Don't believe so, but I could double check.

Speaker 1 (01:02:28):
How about rest versus rust and specifically talking about the
teams that bench starters like Green Bay, they would qualify
for this, the Chargers would qualify that teams that rested
their starters. Is that problematic as far as the spread goes.

Speaker 5 (01:02:46):
Do you have anything on that?

Speaker 6 (01:02:48):
I definitely do.

Speaker 7 (01:02:49):
And now I'm looking into my story because I did
look this up, and the way I looked it up
was the fact that teams who are like six plus
point underdogs in their previous game and entering the playoffs
trying to find it.

Speaker 6 (01:03:03):
But it's in the primer somewhere. Too much stuff in here.

Speaker 5 (01:03:05):
This week it was fat. It was fat.

Speaker 4 (01:03:08):
I've looked at it in the past. It's just like
that resting starters late in the season. It's just there
was some signal, like I said before, but it's very
difficult to track and jet like I did to qualify
which games count? Right, Like did this team how many

(01:03:32):
starters do you? Does it is the threshold for like
this team rested starters, right or this team didn't? Do
you just go based on the quarterback because some teams
will play their quarterback, some things play their quarterback for
a half. So like there's a lot of noise in
like determining what the data set is. But I do
think that they're From what I've looked into, there's a
it's it's not huge, but I mean it's kind of

(01:03:54):
like a bye week how you would expect. But late
in the season, I think a bye week has little
just probably gonna be healthier and fresher than the other team.
I think that's one of the reasons McVeigh historically has
always chosen to do that in disregarding seating except for
this year.

Speaker 6 (01:04:11):
So the way I looked at it was history hasn't
been kind to teams who are big.

Speaker 7 (01:04:14):
Underdogs the week before entering the Wildcard round, which would
basically be a signal that they rested players, because if
you're a playoff team, you're not this big of an underdog,
but six or higher previous game entering Wildcard Round eight
and nineteen against the spread, that would be the Packers
and the Chargers.

Speaker 5 (01:04:29):
That's not good. So keep that in mind. Thank you, Evan.
Go read the primer highly, highly recommend it.

Speaker 1 (01:04:35):
That'll do it for today's episode special thanks to our
producers David Payne and Gifford Gold. The Favorites will return
on Thursday afternoon right here on the Action Network YouTube page.
When we talk wild Card Round best bets and nominate
our official two Kings and a Queen parlay. We'll see
you next time here on the Favorites presented by Draft Kid.

Speaker 3 (01:05:05):
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Speaker 5 (01:05:09):
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