January 6, 2020 • 48 mins
Joe Raineri opens the show talking about how the Vikings have the Saints number, and how we need to start giving Kirk Cousins some credit. Joe tells everyone that since 2005, the unders have been the best bet in Wild Card games.
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Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening. Good morning,
(00:22):
Way up the Morning Line. All right, here we go,
Welcome in Monday. It is January the six, it is Yeah,
I'm still trying to get used to that. Uh, it
(00:43):
is the gridsport dot Com. IM Joey, Welcome into the
Morning Line, as we'll do our very best here over
the next fifty eight and a half minutes to get
you caught up with just about everything that happened over
the weekend in the world of sports. And it was
all about at the NFL this weekend for sure, and
it uh I don't we'd have We'd be really hard
(01:04):
pressed to find four better wild card games in the
history of the NFL playoffs. Uh that all ended up
within one score of each other, all ended actually two
of the four games this weekend ended up in the overtime. UH.
To say the least. It was about as exciting a
(01:25):
weekend in Wildcard history that we've we've ever really ever
been a part of at this point. It happened one
other time, I believe, uh, and it was, if I'm
not mistaken, back in the nineties, it happened once where
we had a we had playoff games all within one
score of each other. And that's really It started on Saturday,
(01:46):
and we were all treated, of course to the early
game with the Bills in Houston, that game heading into overtime,
eventually Houston taking down the Buffalo Bills, and then of
course Tennessee taking down the Patriots, all within one score.
And then yesterday, well it started early and the craziness,
it didn't take long for the craziness to hit us.
(02:09):
As the Saints, we're welcoming in the Kirk Cousins in
the Minnesota Vikings, a team that was by far given
the least opportunity to be able to advance past the past,
the New Orleans Saints, a team that pretty much everyone
had stuck a fork in Kirk Cousins. He was never
(02:30):
gonna win this game. The numbers, we're just staggering from
a betting perspective that come that came in. It was
easily by far the biggest public supported team this weekend
wear the Saints. However, as far as the pros go, yeah, no,
this was the one game that they absolutely cleared house on.
(02:54):
And yes, sports books were not happy with this game
because of the sheer amount of money that was bet
from the big money betters backing Kirk Cousins and the
Minnesota Vikings. And it came in late, it came in quick,
and we actually even saw a little reverse line movement
in this game yesterday as it went from starting yesterday morning.
(03:18):
In fact, even from there were eight in a lot
of sports books around the country that got all the
way down to about a seven uh just before game time.
So just before kickoff, the money was coming in and
it was clear there was a line drawing in the sand.
We're in three quarters of the public bets, three quarters
of all the bets. In fact, we're on the New
(03:42):
Orleans Saints laying the points, being able to get the
job done. Between laying the points, guys that went the
teaser route, taking the Saints down to two or one
and a half uh. It was a nightmare for the
public yesterday as they Kurt Cousins do the unthinkable, the unthinkable,
(04:05):
He actually won throws passes. God for the wind. Kyle Rudolph,
The Vikings are moving on, moving on, they are and
going home once again in the playoffs. Is the New
Orleans Saints in overtime again on the last play of
(04:27):
the game again. Uh. They have made an absolute habit
out of disappointing the New Orleans fan base. Just unbelievable,
Absolutely unbelievable. The Vikings advance. They are ready to go.
Taken on the San Francisco forty Niners here divisional matchups
for the weekend. What can you say? Minnesota only got
(04:51):
one third of the bets a little less than one
third of the total bets yesterday across the board, but man,
that number went from eight to seven. That should have
opened up a lot of people's eyes because there was
no reason for its. Uh, no reason for it since
most people gave them zero chance uh to be able
to take down Drew Brees and company. But a healthy
(05:13):
Dalvin Cook, a healthy Adam feeling healthy Kyle Rudolph a
healthy Uh. There was a lot of reasons to be
optimistic with Minnesota, but most people most betters. And we'll
talk more about this as we move along here in
the morning. That is a shining example of forget what
you have seen, and we told you this. Forget about
(05:34):
whatever you had seen during the regular season, whatever impression
you have had of teams, throw it out the window,
because the wild card round is a totally different animal
and sometimes the unthinkable can happen. A lot of people
might say that they thought this game should have been
double digits, in fact, that this would would have been
(05:55):
an easy victory given the fact of Michael Thomas and
how the secondary is beat up of the Minnesota Vikings. Well, uh,
there are just some teams that have other teams numbers.
And going into that game yesterday, the Minnesota Vikings were
five and one against the number in their last six
trips to New Orleans, New Orleans in this particular spot
(06:20):
at home as a touchdown or more favorite two for
their last twelve in covering the spread, Minnesota had actually
one of the better chances of being able to not
only cover that game, but possibly win that game than
most people gave it credit for. And the reason is
perception versus reality. The perception of Kirk Cousins and what
(06:44):
he somehow did in Washington with the Redskins was somehow
going to play a role in this game when he
finally had a full complement of his weapons, including one
Dalvin Cook, who was a beast. Guys, here's Cook nice
for the touchdown? Yeah he was. He did his own
(07:06):
beast mode in uh impression there yesterday morning, Dalvin Cook.
Once you can start running the ball with Dalvin Cook,
all of a sudden, this offense totally different situation. Balance
things opened up. The defense really had absolutely no answers
for Dalvin Cook yesterday. And we knew going into that
(07:26):
game that Kirk Cousins would have some success down the
middle and deep, and we had said that Listen, Marshawn
Lattimore is great and all, but he can only cover
one guy. We weren't sure who he was gonna cover.
But ultimately it didn't matter because once he left the
game with an ankle injury in overtime, yep, that's when
(07:48):
the fireworks began. And we'll let you hear that play
that really sealed it. Plus we'll let you hear from
Kirk Cousins himself after the game. He had a few
had a few choice words for people that's coming up
here on this Monday. Let's do it. It's the Grid
Sports grid dot Com. Daily Rhodo dot Com learned from
(08:11):
the game's best DFS players. We don't just give you
premier advice. We play every day, all major sports, all
year round. We never stopped industry leading DFS tools and
custom projections, and now the Daily Rodo dot Com optimized
in minutes, building optimized line up for cast games and
(08:31):
turneys learned from the game's best DFS players joined Daily
Rodo dot Com. All right, Happy Monday, Welcome back into
(09:00):
the grid Sports grid dot Com. I'm Joe an area.
It is the morning line. As we take a look
here at the weekend. That was the very first weekend
of the new year. Exciting stuff here as we finally
got some the playoffs underway for the NFL. This was
it wild Card weekend. Everything that led up to this
(09:23):
weekend we had been talking about, how listen, wild Card weekend,
anything can happen. We have seen it in the past.
We also told you a very interesting fact during the
week on how road teams uh in fact had been
eight and oh against the number over the last two
years heading into this weekend in wild cards, so road
(09:44):
teams had dominated. We also told you that Unders have
dominated in the wild card round over the uh well
since really about two thousand three. And we had said, listen,
keep an eye on these thing things because this is
you know, usually with wildcard round, when you start having
(10:05):
that much data and those kinds of trends, the playoffs
are different than Week fourteen of an NFL season. It
should be treated differently. Uh, look at these numbers, Look
at these trends. Would A would a better lens because
they usually they're happening for a reason, because it's more
(10:25):
of a it's more of a microcosm of what's happening
in the league with teams certainly with parody and without
any of those true dominant teams like we have seen
in the past. These kinds of trends like the Unders
hitting and defenses getting the uh you know, getting the
better defense wins championships, guys. Has been a monica for
(10:46):
a long time in the NFL. And while it's great
to have guys like Patrick Mahomes and you know Brady
and you know all of these guys here all of
these years, these great offensive minded coaches and these big
bottom line is you win championships this time of year
in January because your defense shows up. And defense once
(11:10):
again was the reason why the teams that one in
wild Card weekend will be advancing and continuing to play.
And it is defense that caused the teams to lose.
Well to go home and start making some tea time.
And you don't have to look any further, guys than
just yesterday in that Minnesota Vikings New Orleans Saints game,
(11:33):
where there is one reason, well there's two reasons actually
that the Minnesota Vikings are on the way. Number one
is their defense. Uh. That defense, Mike Zimmer, give them credit.
Those guys going into one of the hardest places to
play and win, uh and be able to get the
job done. Unbelievable. The defensive front of the Minnesota Vikings
(12:00):
caused all sorts of aggravation for Drew Brees yesterday. Unexpected. Nobody,
and I mean nobody thought that Drew Brees was going
to have that hard a time against that defense of
the Vikings, who was down a couple of secondary members,
and I know a lot of people thought that was
just gonna be an extant opportunity for Michael Thomas and
(12:23):
company to come up and have just this huge day.
It wasn't happening. The problem is nobody, nobody had an
answer for the New Orleans Saints and how to stop
that front of the Minnesota Vikings, who seemed like rushing
three and four guys all day. They were just in
(12:44):
the backfield all day long. We're in the grill of
Drew Brees causing him the fumble breeze through an interception.
You're talking about a team that never turned the ball over,
only turn the ball over eight total times all year.
They were one of the lead turnover prone teams. They
always protected the ball and the problem, the problem with
(13:06):
always is when you eventually are going to have one
of those games where it doesn't go all your way
and things start to go hard left. Well, I can
tell you this, it all culminated. They'd have been better
off having that game maybe three or four weeks ago,
but unfortunately the worst game of the year. They experienced
(13:26):
it yesterday. And give credit to that defense of the
Minnesota Vikings. They were dominant in that game. They made
Michael Thomas a non factor, absolute non factor. Alvin Kamara
non factor in that game. I mean outside of a
couple of plays here there. Early on, this was all
(13:47):
about the Minnesota Vikings defense showing up, showing out, bawling out,
and giving the other guy. Uh that nobody gave any
credit to Kurt Cousins, uh the opportunity to win this game.
And while he didn't throw for four hundred yards, and
while it wasn't you know, some sort of electric performance,
(14:09):
what Kurt Cousins did is exactly what everybody said he
could not do because he's never won in prime time,
ever won a big game on the road, doesn't do well. Yeah, well, Uh,
he made throws, guys, in the biggest, most important moments
of that game, including overtime, uh, to be able to
(14:31):
put his team ahead. And it was the little things
that he did leading this team, making those throws a
perfect guys, and I mean absolutely perfect strike, the play
that led up to the final touchdown and overtime, uh,
never giving Drew Brees the chance to get back on
the field and over time, that's all Kurt Cousins. Guys,
(14:53):
that was all Kurt Cousins. And it's that whole narrative
now of him not being able to get the job done.
You can throw that out the window. Now he walks
into a and it's amazing what happens with some healthy,
well weapons dealing back had a game of his life.
Uh Diggs made some huge plays and of course Dalvin
(15:15):
Cook being healthy, that offensive line just imposed themselves all
day long. And of course after the game, Kirk Cousins
did have a message for for his teammates and of
course for a lot of the doubters that always doubted him,
not just this year, but pretty much his entire career. Hey, hey,
(15:43):
that's how we won All year team, right, you held him?
The points man gets a chance at the end. I
got three words for you. Do you like Yeah? Needless
to say, you like that? Kurt Cousins getting the last
laugh here, guys, and kudos to him. Good for him,
Good for Zimmer. I think we can put the bed
(16:06):
the narrative also that Zimmer is somehow going to be
the next coach of the Dallas Cowboys, that somehow another
um the the ownership group in Minnesota is gonna want
to move on from Zimmer not being able to get
the job done. No, they got the job done. They
got the job done in a big way. The biggest
underdog plus three twenty on the money line. Guys, yesterday
(16:28):
they are a winner. Uh not only did they cover,
but they cashed big time yesterday For better is Under
also cashed in that game. That was the highest total
of the of the weekend by far. They were expecting
fireworks in in New Orleans. But again, like we told you,
those trends in the playoffs, they tend to be a
(16:50):
little bit more truer and a little less variance because
of the quality of the competition and you've got so
much data backing it, and defense shows up in the
big moments. And this is not one of those. You know,
you're not playing the Bengals, you're not playing the Dolphins,
you know, playing the Giants. This is a different situation
(17:12):
in the wild card and not the Not only the
Unders cash in this game, they cash in every game,
all four of them, beginning on Saturday with Buffalo and
Hell two games went to overtime and the Unders still cash.
So this is another one of those moments where you know,
write it down in that sports betting journal you have,
(17:35):
and I certainly hope you have one and have heated
our advice that there are things to learn each and
every bet that you make throughout your entire sports investing career,
you should be writing notes down, especially when things that
you can take away from certain bets that you made
certain times of years in sports. And remember this. Come
(17:57):
next year, we'll be reminding you once again, but you'll
stick this in the back of your head, and remember that, yes,
unders in the wild card round defense will show up
and will show out, and yes, been one of the
most profitable bets to make since two thousand and five,
hanging out with those unders in this round and all
(18:20):
four cash. But what about the divisional rounds? This week?
Have four more games. We'll give you the latest lines.
We'll tell you exactly what you need to know in
order to be able to make it a very profitable week.
Two of the NFL playoffs will do that. Coming up
next year. On the grid courtport dot com Daily Rhodo
(18:48):
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don't just give you premier advice. We play every day,
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(21:19):
I'm Joe orn Ay here on the morning line. As
we take a look here at what happened over the weekend,
we'll also, of course take a look ahead at the
early lines. Now that the divisional matchups are all set,
those teams Kansas City, Baltimore, San Francisco, Green Bay, all
of them had a chance to get a week off
rest up kind of check out exactly who it is
(21:41):
that they're going to be playing, and the matchups a
set and the lines are out, and we'll get you
those in a second. But recapping, of course yesterday we
told you to Vikings that twenty overtime victory. Uh they
did it as a seven or seven and a half
point road underdog the Vikings, depending on where you got
it and when you got in plus uh, plus three
(22:03):
twenty five on the money line, total under forty nine
and a half. There so all winnable tickets yesterday, Not
many of them had him the one that did. Hopefully
you were watching us on Pro Football Today yesterday because
I was the only one screaming about the Vikings. Nobody
wanted to listen to me. But if you did, you
(22:25):
got yourself the biggest pay day of the weekend. And
of course the second game yesterday, the afternoon game, really
was a toss up game, and all week long between
the Seahawks and the Eagles, the theme was injuries and
both teams coming in hobbled as a mash unit. Both
teams decimated, certain parts of their team just can't stay healthy.
(22:48):
And but they did have two quarterbacks that have really
carried their teams this year, especially in Philadelphia, Carson Wentz
rattling off four straight wins in the final month of
the season in order to be able to propel the
Eagles into the playoffs, to have this playoff game, and
he's really been He was just absolutely bawling out with
(23:10):
a bunch of no name, twelve different practice practice team
players called up on the roster, a whole bunch of
no name guys, but getting the job done. And there
was a just like in the first game yesterday with
Minnesota and the uh and the New Orleans Saints, there
was a clear cut public favorite, and there was a
(23:32):
clear cut professional better favorite and big money better favorite.
Now this line opened up all throughout the week. Seattle
was of the favorite, but guys, it one and a half.
I saw two at some point when it opened up.
But there's there was another big push in yesterday, late
money coming in backing Philadelphia big time. The Philadelphia Eagles
(23:57):
were getting a lot of the professional money yesterday A
and of course that game there you had, you had
the Seahawks all of a sudden going from a one
and a half or a two point favorite to now
a pick them, which is pretty much where that game
went off. Some books even had Philadelphia as a minus
one favorite in that game, and the total forty four
(24:20):
and a half was bent down from forty six. There
was some optimism that maybe, just maybe, uh, these two
teams played back on week twelve, and it was a
very sloppy game, but they lit each other up offensively
over three fifty yards each team in that game. But unfortunately,
(24:40):
five turnovers is what did Philadelphia in there. So there
was some optimism that both of these teams would be
able to clean up their act and get some points
on the board, but that became painfully obvious rather quickly
that that wasn't gonna be the case, and uh, we
quickly got ourselves out to a three three tie with
both defense is being the story. Jadeveon Clowney, of course,
(25:03):
for playing for Seattle kind of be in the heart
and solid a line there coming out from the edge.
He's had a core injury now for the last month
of the season. Weren't sure what you're gonna get from him,
and uh, don't forget Marshawn Lynch now back for week
number two. What were you going to get a lot
of question marks around both of these teams heading into
the game and then in the first quarter, all hell brokeless,
(25:28):
and it all broke loose because Carson wentz like he
has done in the past. Um was taken out of
the game and he was taken out of the game
because he got absolutely crushed by Jadeveon Clowney. And of
course Eagles fans will tell you it was a late hit.
It was malicious and uh, you know, as he was
(25:50):
falling to the ground, Carson wentz. Jadeveon Clowney came, you know,
shoulder head first, just pounding, pounding on him and in
the back of the head area, they're drilling him right
into the ground. It was obvious to most and he
did try to play through it, but you could tell
his eyes were just they weren't there. He was having
(26:11):
trouble seeing He stayed in for another player, so came
to the sideline and he was hanging out with Josh McGown.
They were trying to look at the tablets and you
could just tell he he told Josh McGown, I don't
feel well. Josh McGown said after the game that yeah,
I was worried about him, and he just he did
not look good. So they took him into the locker
(26:32):
room there in the first quarter and he never returned.
Concussion was exactly the diagnosis. He wasn't coming, which means
that you got a forty year old high school football coach,
which is pretty much what he was doing prior to
being called to the Philadelphia Eagles. Uh this year, all
of a sudden, he is now the hope that you
(26:54):
have in order to be able to advance in the playoffs.
And I can tell you something, man, he did a
great job for a fourty year old guy. The problem
is it just wasn't going to be because there was
a There was another senior citizen on that field. His
name was Marshawn Lynch. He was doing some crazy things
as well, Wilson deep down field, getting free and open
(27:18):
and making the grab at the touchdown. Yeah, I was
actually met CAF who owned them. But you know, Beast
Mode actually had his say as well. First and goal five,
Marshawn yet the touchdown. Marshawn with a five yard touchdown
(27:39):
run doing Marshawn things there and of course Seattle fans
being reminded once again why didn't we hand the ball
off to him back in the day? But five yard
touchdown but give props again defense guys. That Philadelphia defense
was lights out. They held him to nineteen yards rushing
(28:00):
guys nineteen total yards rushing in that game by the
Seattle Seahawks. The damage was all done by a rookie
wide receiver that in fact was passed over by the
Philadelphia Eagles because they went for some named some of
J j R. Cia the the the White side. Yeah, uh,
I dude, that had absolutely no impact on the game whatsoever.
(28:23):
Could have been a Philadelphia Eagle except they opted not
to draft him and go with a different wide receiver
and uh in the second round, in fact, is where
he went. And yeah, he had absolutely no problem uh
securing the victory for the Seattle Seahawks because the Eagles
unfortunately had zero answer for him in the secondary, could
(28:45):
not cover him. Uh. The guy is a beast. And
the last catch of the game for him told you everything.
Three receivers to the right, zero Eagles, this is gonna
go deep. You've got calf to the fifty line and
(29:07):
then in all likelihood to finish to this one. Yeah
it did. It was a give credit to the Seahawks
for calling that play. They were gonna try to run
the clock out, UH, and the Eagles brought everybody on
a third down play hoping to be able to get
the ball back, and Russell Wilson had man demand with
DK mecha and they just had no answer. The guys
(29:30):
like six ft six compared to the five ft nine
dbs that we're trying to cover him. He went up,
got the ball, sealed the victory hundred and sixty yards
on the day. By far, one of the most dominant
UH players of the weekend. Certainly from a DFS and
fantasy standpoint, if you had Metcalf yesterday in any of
(29:50):
your lineups, you did probably pretty well well unless you
paired him with Drew Brees, then you didn't do well.
But he had a monster, absolute monster day, and he
fact was UH the player of that game. And Russell
Wilson even said it so much afterwards, Really happy for
the kid who has played all year long with a
chip on his shoulder, special night, special year. That's that's
(30:16):
come out and little chip on the shoulder too. You
know that he's on our team. That's sure, he's on
the team for a long time. Yeah, he is a
beast and UH, if this is any indication of things
to come. That is a weapon that is going to
be very hard to game plan for. And I can
tell you this as they get ready, uh to head
(30:37):
to green Bay to take on Aaron Rodgers and company.
Though that defensive green Bay is gonna have their hands
full with that kid, because you ain't you ain't manning
up on him. Uh, you are absolutely not. And now
that Russell Wilson has figured it out here and those
two are getting on the same page, that is a
lethal combination. Both defenses showed up, showed out unfortunately Seattle.
(31:00):
That's moving on, Philadelphia going home. Question marks around Carson
Wentz once again. We'll have more on that game. Plus
we'll take ahead a look ahead actually on those lines
for the upcoming weekend in the NFL divisional matchups. Will
do that next. You're on the Grid sports grid dot
Com Sports grid dot com betting insights and entertainment at
(31:24):
your fingertips as our team covers the most important topics
in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. All right, big, big, big weekend.
(31:51):
That was, of course, NFL underdogs pretty profitable this uh
this weekend two and one against the non here on
the weekend, you did have a pick them, of course,
and that game was won by Seattle. Uh. Some might
even say that there were a number of different places
where Philadelphia was actually by kickoff the favorite there with
(32:13):
that big push in the end, that influx of some
big money pushing the line towards Philadelphia's. So if that's
the case, dogs three and one against the number this weekend,
big money. Of course, Tennessee the night before taking down
Tom Brady and company. Uh, cash in air plus one
ninety on the money line. They were getting. Uh, they
(32:35):
were certainly getting their fair share of points to is
the money kept rolling in for New England. Five five
and a half points is what Tennessee was getting. They
didn't need it, almost a two dollar underdog. Uh, they
cashed out. And of course we told you about Minnesota
yesterday they amed two plus three twenty five on the
money line. Chu ching Uh that was awesome if you
(32:57):
guys had gone contrarian and back the underdogs in those matchups.
And again the big story the unders guys unders four
and oh that's right, four no, uh to the under
three and one first half unders as well. Uh. The
only game that went over the first half was the
(33:17):
ridiculousness that happened in the New England game early on
where they scored all their points in the first half
nothing in the second half. So first half unders three
and one, full game unders four and no on the
weekend in the NFL, and that means we've got everything
all set. And of course the uh, the Houston Texans
(33:40):
coming back winning that game, and just a comedy of
errors late in that late in that ball game. But
what can you say, the Buffalo Bills, you gotta lose
in order to be able to learn how to win.
And Houston Deshaun Watson, they were in that spot last year.
They ended up losing Andrew Luck and company and the Cults.
(34:02):
They came back and when they needed Deshaun Watson to
make a play, he made a play. He made a
couple of plays there in the end, despite his coach
doing everything humanly possible to lose the game, Houston ends
up advancing and taking down the Buffalo Bills. But certainly
the stock is is continuing to rise for the Buffalo
(34:22):
Bills as a team, and yet the return of J. J.
Watt really had a huge impact on that defense for
the Houston Texans. Everything they do or that they didn't
do well when he was gone, they did well in
that game. He brings a completely different dimension to that defense.
(34:42):
They are a different team with him. And of course,
as long as you got DeShawn Watson back there, you
have an opportunity with the hop and others to be
able to do some interesting things. And they're gonna have
to do some very interesting things. He are moving forward
because they're traveling to take on Andy Reid and another
guy that can do some pretty cool stuff as a
(35:04):
quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. And uh, it's going to be guys,
I'm telling you right now, this is going to be
one hell of a game with these two quarterbacks, these
two young quarterbacks getting it done. The Texans taking care
of business. Now they move to take on Andy Reid
coming off of bye, and that's never good, guys. Andy
(35:25):
Reid's record coming off of by is crazy. Uh. And
they're gonna have to go into Kansas City, who, to
their credits, the Houston Texans now Kansas City not exactly
a great home field advantage. In fact, they score more
points on the road than they actually do in Kansas City.
So k C is coming off that first round by
(35:47):
They finished the regular season twelve and fourth straight up,
eleven and five against the number. They are also five
and three against the number at Arrowheads Stadium, averaging around
twenty eight points per game on offense, that defense one
of the best in the National Football League the second
half of the season, only nineteen points per game they've
been giving up now. This line opened with Kansas City
(36:09):
listed as an eight point favorite in many places, a
home favorite, and I can tell you it didn't take
long before that number to continue to rise as the
money kept pouring in on the Kansas City Chiefs. There.
In fact, that line has been pushed up. I'm seeing
nine and a half even ten at some spots right now,
(36:29):
and I do think there'll be some buy back here
at some particular point. But it opening up at eight,
it does not surprise me. I knew that line was
going to continue to rise as people were gonna back
Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes. A lot of people don't buy
Bill O'Brien or the or the Houston Texans uh in
this particular spot, but the Houston Texans in this game
(36:52):
do still provide some value as a road dog getting
you know, almost double digit points in the playoffs, because
we've told you before divisional round dogs. This week we
talked about the wild card trends. Here's a divisional round
trend for you dogs. Divisional round dogs thirty eight and
twenty four against the number six since two thousand three,
(37:13):
and if they are more than a touchdown dog, thirty
six and so there is some value there backing Houston
is that number continues to rise. And by the way,
team's coming off a first round by not exactly great
against the number guys forty three and fifty two against
the number. And we did see this, by the way,
(37:34):
earlier this year, if you don't recall, the Texans travel
to Arrowhead, I believe it was mid October somewhere around there. Uh,
they beat the Chiefs guys thirty one to twenty four.
They were a three and a half point dog and
they took down the Chiefs and Arrowhead. So they do
have that going for him. Keep that in mind. The
total forty nine and a half, I've seen it at
(37:55):
forty nine and a half. I'm seeing a forty nine
or two out there as well. But for the most part.
The Uh, I do think given the weather in Arrowhead,
we are probably again gonna be looking at that number,
the under maybe getting more of the money. So if
it's at nine and a half, do not at all
be surprised if we don't see that number dropped down
(38:16):
to forty eight and a half or forty eight before long.
And I don't need to remind you, but postseason the
under twenty three and thirteen since two thousand three, especially
when the winds are blowing, and the winds will be
blowing at Arrowhead. Uh, this weekend. As far as the
other game goes in the a f C, you've got
the Titans, of course, that win over New England. Well,
(38:37):
their prize is to have to go take on the
Baltimore Ravens now, which is uh, you know, never good. Uh.
The Ravens best record in the NFL, A league best
two nine point differential. You just the Titans were plus
seventy one alright, just to give you an idea what's
going on there? Baltimore ten five and one against the
number this year just four and four at home though
(39:00):
not great against the number at home the Baltimore Ravens,
but they average in thirty three points per game on
offense only given up seventeen. I can tell you this
offense is gonna be a little bit different than the
one they just faced even in Foxborough for New England,
and it's gonna be all about the rushing attack for
(39:21):
both of these teams. Can Derrick Henry do what he
did against that New England defense? Can Tannehill continue to
make throws when he needs to the betters? As far
as the markets go, the Titans um opened up. I
believe in a ten point ten point underdog in this game,
(39:43):
and I am seeing that it's moved down just a
little bit. I'm seeing nines right now, nine and a half,
but uh we should see that probably tick back up
as more of the public backs. I am sure going
to be backing the Baltimore Ravens in this spot and
again ten points, double digits. Both of these a f
(40:07):
C games are going to be focused on two teams
as double digit dogs and double digit favorites. And don't
need to explain to you dogs thirty if it's a
touchdown or more so, there's definitely some value going contrarian
and backing the underdogs in the A f C if
that's the route you want to go. However, in the NFC,
(40:32):
it's a little different of his story. Uh, you do
have the forty Niners had opened up as a uh
seven point favorite against the Vikings. I see that has
already been pushed down to around six and a half
just under a touchdown, as I am sure the professional
betters came in there, so that key number of seven
and started pounding the the um the Vikings in this game.
(40:56):
So now we're seeing six and a half the total
hovering around forty forty five and a half in that one.
And then the Packers at home and Lambeau taking on
the uh the Seahawks. That's a three and a half points.
Packers are three and a half point home favorite in
that it's kind of stayed that way ever since it
opened up yesterday last night. Uh, the total is forty six.
(41:17):
So we'll keep an eye on these lines as they
as they move forward. But it's the a f C
that seems to be the most lopsided right now because
you have guys two number six is to six seeds
right now advanced out of the A f C. So
you've got one six versus two six here in the
(41:40):
too four rather you've got one six for the Ravens Titans.
You also have won six with the forty nine Ers Vikings,
which is kind of crazy. You've got to four matchup
there with the Kansas City Chiefs taken on the Texans,
and a uh and just a to five matchup going
on between the Packers and the Seahawks. So much still
(42:03):
to be determined here this weekend. But I implore you, guys,
I am imploring you that once again you're gonna be
faced with an opportunity to be able to place a bet.
And this is of course always a good reminder, a
good lesson here in gambling. You what you just saw
(42:23):
this weekend from these teams that advanced, Okay, it's great,
but let's be realistic. That has absolutely nothing to do
with what is going to happen this weekend. The defensive
showing of Minnesota is great. Uh, they bawled out there,
a big reason as to why they beat New Orleans
(42:45):
in the upset. But New Orleans is not going to
be the forty niners. Uh. This is a totally different matchup,
totally different set of skills. So while they did great
against them in New Orleans. Do not let that influence
the way that you look at this team. And at
(43:07):
the same time, that goes both ways. Coming off a
bye week. I gave you those numbers, you know, teams
that rest a week not exactly great against the number
in this spot. So sometimes there's something to be said
about teams just continuing to play, even though it's gonna
be on the road. Teams that continue to play, they
might start hitting their stride. And we see it every year,
(43:29):
teams getting hot. So don't discount or don't just don't
be influenced by a big game that you witnessed these
teams win here like Houston or the Vikings, or don't
just you know, don't discount Deshaun Watson's ability to get
a game. Whatever they did against Buffalo, whatever they did
(43:49):
against the Eagles, got no bearing on what's gonna happen
this weekend. So look at the matchups. Keep an eye
on those under trends again, take a look at how
they defensively match up against those position players. The good
thing about Houston and Kansas City is we've already seen
this match up to a certain extent earlier this year,
(44:10):
So forget about whatever it is you just watched. Don't
let it influence your betting decisions as you head into
this divisional match up in the NFL here in this weekend,
in the playoffs, because that's where people start to get
into trouble. They either split too much weight or all
their weight backing. But well, did you see how great
(44:32):
they look? Did you see what they did? That defense
balled out? Just I would caution you take a step
back and realize, totally different matchup, totally different scenario. Uh,
and really take a look more at the playoff trends.
If you're gonna look at any trends, look at the
playoff trends here when we get to this point in January.
(44:53):
There is something to be learned there. Not the end
all be all, but there is certainly something to be
learned and what we I've seen over the last couple
of years in these playoffs, And always ask yourself, why
why does this keep happening? Why are road teams continuing
to dominate? Why are unders continuing to dominate? Ask yourself
(45:14):
those questions and you'll be on the right side of
these plays coming up this week. And I'm sure applots
it doesn't hurt to be watching us all week, and
we'll do that in fact coming up here as we
look and make it rain next year on the grid,
we'll break down those games for you. Take a look
ahead coming up next year. Good luck. We'll talk again tomorrow.
(45:38):
Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your
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(46:02):
Here's what you missed on the morning line. Kirk Cousins
did have a message for for his teammates and of
course for a lot of the doubters that always doubted him,
not just this year, but pretty much is entire career. Hey, hey,
(46:24):
that's how we won All year team, right? You held him? Man,
you's a chance. At the end, I got three words
for you. Do you like Yeah? Needless to say, you
like that? Kurt Cousins getting the last laugh here, guys,
and kudos to him. Good for him, Good for Zimmer.
(46:44):
I think we can put to bed the narrative also
that Zimmer is somehow going to be the next coach
of the Dallas Cowboys that somehow another um the ownership
group in Minnesota is gonna want to move on from
Zimmer not being able to get the job done. No,
they got the job done. They got the job done
in a big way. The biggest underdog plus three twenty
on the money line. Guys, yesterday, they are a winner.
(47:08):
Not only did they cover, but they cashed big time yesterday.
For better is under also cashed in that game. That
was the highest total of the of the weekend by far.
They were expecting fireworks in in New Orleans. But again,
like we told you, those trends in the playoffs, they
tend to be a little bit more truer and a
(47:30):
little less variance because of the quality of the competition
and you've got so much data backing it, and defense
shows up in the big moments, and this is not
one of those. You know, you're not playing the Bengals,
you're not playing the Dolphins, you're not playing the Giants.
This is a different situation in the wild card and
(47:51):
not the Not only the unders cash in this game,
they cash in every game, all four of them, beginning
on Saturday with Buffalo and two games went to overtime
and the unders still cash. So this is another one
of those moments where you know, write it down in
that sports betting journal you have, and I certainly hope
(48:12):
you have one and have heated our advice that there
are things to learn each and every bet that you
make throughout your entire sports investing career. You should be
writing notes down, especially when things that you can take
away from certain bets that you made certain times of
years in sports. And remember this. Come next year, we'll
(48:34):
be reminding you once again. But you stick this in
the back of your head and remember that yes, unders
in the wild card round defense will show up and
will show out, and yes, been one of the most
profitable bets to make since two thousand and five, hanging
out with those unders in this round and all four
(48:56):
cash
Hey, thanks for downloading the podcast. If you want to
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Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening. Good morning,
(00:22):
Way up the Morning Line. All right, here we go,
Welcome in Monday. It is January the six, it is Yeah,
I'm still trying to get used to that. Uh, it
(00:43):
is the gridsport dot Com. IM Joey, Welcome into the
Morning Line, as we'll do our very best here over
the next fifty eight and a half minutes to get
you caught up with just about everything that happened over
the weekend in the world of sports. And it was
all about at the NFL this weekend for sure, and
it uh I don't we'd have We'd be really hard
(01:04):
pressed to find four better wild card games in the
history of the NFL playoffs. Uh that all ended up
within one score of each other, all ended actually two
of the four games this weekend ended up in the overtime. UH.
To say the least. It was about as exciting a
(01:25):
weekend in Wildcard history that we've we've ever really ever
been a part of at this point. It happened one
other time, I believe, uh, and it was, if I'm
not mistaken, back in the nineties, it happened once where
we had a we had playoff games all within one
score of each other. And that's really It started on Saturday,
(01:46):
and we were all treated, of course to the early
game with the Bills in Houston, that game heading into overtime,
eventually Houston taking down the Buffalo Bills, and then of
course Tennessee taking down the Patriots, all within one score.
And then yesterday, well it started early and the craziness,
it didn't take long for the craziness to hit us.
(02:09):
As the Saints, we're welcoming in the Kirk Cousins in
the Minnesota Vikings, a team that was by far given
the least opportunity to be able to advance past the past,
the New Orleans Saints, a team that pretty much everyone
had stuck a fork in Kirk Cousins. He was never
(02:30):
gonna win this game. The numbers, we're just staggering from
a betting perspective that come that came in. It was
easily by far the biggest public supported team this weekend
wear the Saints. However, as far as the pros go, yeah, no,
this was the one game that they absolutely cleared house on.
(02:54):
And yes, sports books were not happy with this game
because of the sheer amount of money that was bet
from the big money betters backing Kirk Cousins and the
Minnesota Vikings. And it came in late, it came in quick,
and we actually even saw a little reverse line movement
in this game yesterday as it went from starting yesterday morning.
(03:18):
In fact, even from there were eight in a lot
of sports books around the country that got all the
way down to about a seven uh just before game time.
So just before kickoff, the money was coming in and
it was clear there was a line drawing in the sand.
We're in three quarters of the public bets, three quarters
of all the bets. In fact, we're on the New
(03:42):
Orleans Saints laying the points, being able to get the
job done. Between laying the points, guys that went the
teaser route, taking the Saints down to two or one
and a half uh. It was a nightmare for the
public yesterday as they Kurt Cousins do the unthinkable, the unthinkable,
(04:05):
He actually won throws passes. God for the wind. Kyle Rudolph,
The Vikings are moving on, moving on, they are and
going home once again in the playoffs. Is the New
Orleans Saints in overtime again on the last play of
(04:27):
the game again. Uh. They have made an absolute habit
out of disappointing the New Orleans fan base. Just unbelievable,
Absolutely unbelievable. The Vikings advance. They are ready to go.
Taken on the San Francisco forty Niners here divisional matchups
for the weekend. What can you say? Minnesota only got
(04:51):
one third of the bets a little less than one
third of the total bets yesterday across the board, but man,
that number went from eight to seven. That should have
opened up a lot of people's eyes because there was
no reason for its. Uh, no reason for it since
most people gave them zero chance uh to be able
to take down Drew Brees and company. But a healthy
(05:13):
Dalvin Cook, a healthy Adam feeling healthy Kyle Rudolph a
healthy Uh. There was a lot of reasons to be
optimistic with Minnesota, but most people most betters. And we'll
talk more about this as we move along here in
the morning. That is a shining example of forget what
you have seen, and we told you this. Forget about
(05:34):
whatever you had seen during the regular season, whatever impression
you have had of teams, throw it out the window,
because the wild card round is a totally different animal
and sometimes the unthinkable can happen. A lot of people
might say that they thought this game should have been
double digits, in fact, that this would would have been
(05:55):
an easy victory given the fact of Michael Thomas and
how the secondary is beat up of the Minnesota Vikings. Well, uh,
there are just some teams that have other teams numbers.
And going into that game yesterday, the Minnesota Vikings were
five and one against the number in their last six
trips to New Orleans, New Orleans in this particular spot
(06:20):
at home as a touchdown or more favorite two for
their last twelve in covering the spread, Minnesota had actually
one of the better chances of being able to not
only cover that game, but possibly win that game than
most people gave it credit for. And the reason is
perception versus reality. The perception of Kirk Cousins and what
(06:44):
he somehow did in Washington with the Redskins was somehow
going to play a role in this game when he
finally had a full complement of his weapons, including one
Dalvin Cook, who was a beast. Guys, here's Cook nice
for the touchdown? Yeah he was. He did his own
(07:06):
beast mode in uh impression there yesterday morning, Dalvin Cook.
Once you can start running the ball with Dalvin Cook,
all of a sudden, this offense totally different situation. Balance
things opened up. The defense really had absolutely no answers
for Dalvin Cook yesterday. And we knew going into that
(07:26):
game that Kirk Cousins would have some success down the
middle and deep, and we had said that Listen, Marshawn
Lattimore is great and all, but he can only cover
one guy. We weren't sure who he was gonna cover.
But ultimately it didn't matter because once he left the
game with an ankle injury in overtime, yep, that's when
(07:48):
the fireworks began. And we'll let you hear that play
that really sealed it. Plus we'll let you hear from
Kirk Cousins himself after the game. He had a few
had a few choice words for people that's coming up
here on this Monday. Let's do it. It's the Grid
Sports grid dot Com. Daily Rhodo dot Com learned from
(08:11):
the game's best DFS players. We don't just give you
premier advice. We play every day, all major sports, all
year round. We never stopped industry leading DFS tools and
custom projections, and now the Daily Rodo dot Com optimized
in minutes, building optimized line up for cast games and
(08:31):
turneys learned from the game's best DFS players joined Daily
Rodo dot Com. All right, Happy Monday, Welcome back into
(09:00):
the grid Sports grid dot Com. I'm Joe an area.
It is the morning line. As we take a look
here at the weekend. That was the very first weekend
of the new year. Exciting stuff here as we finally
got some the playoffs underway for the NFL. This was
it wild Card weekend. Everything that led up to this
(09:23):
weekend we had been talking about, how listen, wild Card weekend,
anything can happen. We have seen it in the past.
We also told you a very interesting fact during the
week on how road teams uh in fact had been
eight and oh against the number over the last two
years heading into this weekend in wild cards, so road
(09:44):
teams had dominated. We also told you that Unders have
dominated in the wild card round over the uh well
since really about two thousand three. And we had said, listen,
keep an eye on these thing things because this is
you know, usually with wildcard round, when you start having
(10:05):
that much data and those kinds of trends, the playoffs
are different than Week fourteen of an NFL season. It
should be treated differently. Uh, look at these numbers, Look
at these trends. Would A would a better lens because
they usually they're happening for a reason, because it's more
(10:25):
of a it's more of a microcosm of what's happening
in the league with teams certainly with parody and without
any of those true dominant teams like we have seen
in the past. These kinds of trends like the Unders
hitting and defenses getting the uh you know, getting the
better defense wins championships, guys. Has been a monica for
(10:46):
a long time in the NFL. And while it's great
to have guys like Patrick Mahomes and you know Brady
and you know all of these guys here all of
these years, these great offensive minded coaches and these big
bottom line is you win championships this time of year
in January because your defense shows up. And defense once
(11:10):
again was the reason why the teams that one in
wild Card weekend will be advancing and continuing to play.
And it is defense that caused the teams to lose.
Well to go home and start making some tea time.
And you don't have to look any further, guys than
just yesterday in that Minnesota Vikings New Orleans Saints game,
(11:33):
where there is one reason, well there's two reasons actually
that the Minnesota Vikings are on the way. Number one
is their defense. Uh. That defense, Mike Zimmer, give them credit.
Those guys going into one of the hardest places to
play and win, uh and be able to get the
job done. Unbelievable. The defensive front of the Minnesota Vikings
(12:00):
caused all sorts of aggravation for Drew Brees yesterday. Unexpected. Nobody,
and I mean nobody thought that Drew Brees was going
to have that hard a time against that defense of
the Vikings, who was down a couple of secondary members,
and I know a lot of people thought that was
just gonna be an extant opportunity for Michael Thomas and
(12:23):
company to come up and have just this huge day.
It wasn't happening. The problem is nobody, nobody had an
answer for the New Orleans Saints and how to stop
that front of the Minnesota Vikings, who seemed like rushing
three and four guys all day. They were just in
(12:44):
the backfield all day long. We're in the grill of
Drew Brees causing him the fumble breeze through an interception.
You're talking about a team that never turned the ball over,
only turn the ball over eight total times all year.
They were one of the lead turnover prone teams. They
always protected the ball and the problem, the problem with
(13:06):
always is when you eventually are going to have one
of those games where it doesn't go all your way
and things start to go hard left. Well, I can
tell you this, it all culminated. They'd have been better
off having that game maybe three or four weeks ago,
but unfortunately the worst game of the year. They experienced
(13:26):
it yesterday. And give credit to that defense of the
Minnesota Vikings. They were dominant in that game. They made
Michael Thomas a non factor, absolute non factor. Alvin Kamara
non factor in that game. I mean outside of a
couple of plays here there. Early on, this was all
(13:47):
about the Minnesota Vikings defense showing up, showing out, bawling out,
and giving the other guy. Uh that nobody gave any
credit to Kurt Cousins, uh the opportunity to win this game.
And while he didn't throw for four hundred yards, and
while it wasn't you know, some sort of electric performance,
(14:09):
what Kurt Cousins did is exactly what everybody said he
could not do because he's never won in prime time,
ever won a big game on the road, doesn't do well. Yeah, well, Uh,
he made throws, guys, in the biggest, most important moments
of that game, including overtime, uh, to be able to
(14:31):
put his team ahead. And it was the little things
that he did leading this team, making those throws a
perfect guys, and I mean absolutely perfect strike, the play
that led up to the final touchdown and overtime, uh,
never giving Drew Brees the chance to get back on
the field and over time, that's all Kurt Cousins. Guys,
(14:53):
that was all Kurt Cousins. And it's that whole narrative
now of him not being able to get the job done.
You can throw that out the window. Now he walks
into a and it's amazing what happens with some healthy,
well weapons dealing back had a game of his life.
Uh Diggs made some huge plays and of course Dalvin
(15:15):
Cook being healthy, that offensive line just imposed themselves all
day long. And of course after the game, Kirk Cousins
did have a message for for his teammates and of
course for a lot of the doubters that always doubted him,
not just this year, but pretty much his entire career. Hey, hey,
(15:43):
that's how we won All year team, right, you held him?
The points man gets a chance at the end. I
got three words for you. Do you like Yeah? Needless
to say, you like that? Kurt Cousins getting the last
laugh here, guys, and kudos to him. Good for him,
Good for Zimmer. I think we can put the bed
(16:06):
the narrative also that Zimmer is somehow going to be
the next coach of the Dallas Cowboys, that somehow another
um the the ownership group in Minnesota is gonna want
to move on from Zimmer not being able to get
the job done. No, they got the job done. They
got the job done in a big way. The biggest
underdog plus three twenty on the money line. Guys, yesterday
(16:28):
they are a winner. Uh not only did they cover,
but they cashed big time yesterday For better is Under
also cashed in that game. That was the highest total
of the of the weekend by far. They were expecting
fireworks in in New Orleans. But again, like we told you,
those trends in the playoffs, they tend to be a
(16:50):
little bit more truer and a little less variance because
of the quality of the competition and you've got so
much data backing it, and defense shows up in the
big moments. And this is not one of those. You know,
you're not playing the Bengals, you're not playing the Dolphins,
you know, playing the Giants. This is a different situation
(17:12):
in the wild card and not the Not only the
Unders cash in this game, they cash in every game,
all four of them, beginning on Saturday with Buffalo and
Hell two games went to overtime and the Unders still cash.
So this is another one of those moments where you know,
write it down in that sports betting journal you have,
(17:35):
and I certainly hope you have one and have heated
our advice that there are things to learn each and
every bet that you make throughout your entire sports investing career,
you should be writing notes down, especially when things that
you can take away from certain bets that you made
certain times of years in sports. And remember this. Come
(17:57):
next year, we'll be reminding you once again, but you'll
stick this in the back of your head, and remember that, yes,
unders in the wild card round defense will show up
and will show out, and yes, been one of the
most profitable bets to make since two thousand and five,
hanging out with those unders in this round and all
(18:20):
four cash. But what about the divisional rounds? This week?
Have four more games. We'll give you the latest lines.
We'll tell you exactly what you need to know in
order to be able to make it a very profitable week.
Two of the NFL playoffs will do that. Coming up
next year. On the grid courtport dot com Daily Rhodo
(18:48):
dot com learning from the game's best DFS players, We
don't just give you premier advice. We play every day,
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I'm Joe orn Ay here on the morning line. As
we take a look here at what happened over the weekend,
we'll also, of course take a look ahead at the
early lines. Now that the divisional matchups are all set,
those teams Kansas City, Baltimore, San Francisco, Green Bay, all
of them had a chance to get a week off
rest up kind of check out exactly who it is
(21:41):
that they're going to be playing, and the matchups a
set and the lines are out, and we'll get you
those in a second. But recapping, of course yesterday we
told you to Vikings that twenty overtime victory. Uh they
did it as a seven or seven and a half
point road underdog the Vikings, depending on where you got
it and when you got in plus uh, plus three
(22:03):
twenty five on the money line, total under forty nine
and a half. There so all winnable tickets yesterday, Not
many of them had him the one that did. Hopefully
you were watching us on Pro Football Today yesterday because
I was the only one screaming about the Vikings. Nobody
wanted to listen to me. But if you did, you
(22:25):
got yourself the biggest pay day of the weekend. And
of course the second game yesterday, the afternoon game, really
was a toss up game, and all week long between
the Seahawks and the Eagles, the theme was injuries and
both teams coming in hobbled as a mash unit. Both
teams decimated, certain parts of their team just can't stay healthy.
(22:48):
And but they did have two quarterbacks that have really
carried their teams this year, especially in Philadelphia, Carson Wentz
rattling off four straight wins in the final month of
the season in order to be able to propel the
Eagles into the playoffs, to have this playoff game, and
he's really been He was just absolutely bawling out with
(23:10):
a bunch of no name, twelve different practice practice team
players called up on the roster, a whole bunch of
no name guys, but getting the job done. And there
was a just like in the first game yesterday with
Minnesota and the uh and the New Orleans Saints, there
was a clear cut public favorite, and there was a
(23:32):
clear cut professional better favorite and big money better favorite.
Now this line opened up all throughout the week. Seattle
was of the favorite, but guys, it one and a half.
I saw two at some point when it opened up.
But there's there was another big push in yesterday, late
money coming in backing Philadelphia big time. The Philadelphia Eagles
(23:57):
were getting a lot of the professional money yesterday A
and of course that game there you had, you had
the Seahawks all of a sudden going from a one
and a half or a two point favorite to now
a pick them, which is pretty much where that game
went off. Some books even had Philadelphia as a minus
one favorite in that game, and the total forty four
(24:20):
and a half was bent down from forty six. There
was some optimism that maybe, just maybe, uh, these two
teams played back on week twelve, and it was a
very sloppy game, but they lit each other up offensively
over three fifty yards each team in that game. But unfortunately,
(24:40):
five turnovers is what did Philadelphia in there. So there
was some optimism that both of these teams would be
able to clean up their act and get some points
on the board, but that became painfully obvious rather quickly
that that wasn't gonna be the case, and uh, we
quickly got ourselves out to a three three tie with
both defense is being the story. Jadeveon Clowney, of course,
(25:03):
for playing for Seattle kind of be in the heart
and solid a line there coming out from the edge.
He's had a core injury now for the last month
of the season. Weren't sure what you're gonna get from him,
and uh, don't forget Marshawn Lynch now back for week
number two. What were you going to get a lot
of question marks around both of these teams heading into
the game and then in the first quarter, all hell brokeless,
(25:28):
and it all broke loose because Carson wentz like he
has done in the past. Um was taken out of
the game and he was taken out of the game
because he got absolutely crushed by Jadeveon Clowney. And of
course Eagles fans will tell you it was a late hit.
It was malicious and uh, you know, as he was
(25:50):
falling to the ground, Carson wentz. Jadeveon Clowney came, you know,
shoulder head first, just pounding, pounding on him and in
the back of the head area, they're drilling him right
into the ground. It was obvious to most and he
did try to play through it, but you could tell
his eyes were just they weren't there. He was having
(26:11):
trouble seeing He stayed in for another player, so came
to the sideline and he was hanging out with Josh McGown.
They were trying to look at the tablets and you
could just tell he he told Josh McGown, I don't
feel well. Josh McGown said after the game that yeah,
I was worried about him, and he just he did
not look good. So they took him into the locker
(26:32):
room there in the first quarter and he never returned.
Concussion was exactly the diagnosis. He wasn't coming, which means
that you got a forty year old high school football coach,
which is pretty much what he was doing prior to
being called to the Philadelphia Eagles. Uh this year, all
of a sudden, he is now the hope that you
(26:54):
have in order to be able to advance in the playoffs.
And I can tell you something, man, he did a
great job for a fourty year old guy. The problem
is it just wasn't going to be because there was
a There was another senior citizen on that field. His
name was Marshawn Lynch. He was doing some crazy things
as well, Wilson deep down field, getting free and open
(27:18):
and making the grab at the touchdown. Yeah, I was
actually met CAF who owned them. But you know, Beast
Mode actually had his say as well. First and goal five,
Marshawn yet the touchdown. Marshawn with a five yard touchdown
(27:39):
run doing Marshawn things there and of course Seattle fans
being reminded once again why didn't we hand the ball
off to him back in the day? But five yard
touchdown but give props again defense guys. That Philadelphia defense
was lights out. They held him to nineteen yards rushing
(28:00):
guys nineteen total yards rushing in that game by the
Seattle Seahawks. The damage was all done by a rookie
wide receiver that in fact was passed over by the
Philadelphia Eagles because they went for some named some of
J j R. Cia the the the White side. Yeah, uh,
I dude, that had absolutely no impact on the game whatsoever.
(28:23):
Could have been a Philadelphia Eagle except they opted not
to draft him and go with a different wide receiver
and uh in the second round, in fact, is where
he went. And yeah, he had absolutely no problem uh
securing the victory for the Seattle Seahawks because the Eagles
unfortunately had zero answer for him in the secondary, could
(28:45):
not cover him. Uh. The guy is a beast. And
the last catch of the game for him told you everything.
Three receivers to the right, zero Eagles, this is gonna
go deep. You've got calf to the fifty line and
(29:07):
then in all likelihood to finish to this one. Yeah
it did. It was a give credit to the Seahawks
for calling that play. They were gonna try to run
the clock out, UH, and the Eagles brought everybody on
a third down play hoping to be able to get
the ball back, and Russell Wilson had man demand with
DK mecha and they just had no answer. The guys
(29:30):
like six ft six compared to the five ft nine
dbs that we're trying to cover him. He went up,
got the ball, sealed the victory hundred and sixty yards
on the day. By far, one of the most dominant
UH players of the weekend. Certainly from a DFS and
fantasy standpoint, if you had Metcalf yesterday in any of
(29:50):
your lineups, you did probably pretty well well unless you
paired him with Drew Brees, then you didn't do well.
But he had a monster, absolute monster day, and he
fact was UH the player of that game. And Russell
Wilson even said it so much afterwards, Really happy for
the kid who has played all year long with a
chip on his shoulder, special night, special year. That's that's
(30:16):
come out and little chip on the shoulder too. You
know that he's on our team. That's sure, he's on
the team for a long time. Yeah, he is a
beast and UH, if this is any indication of things
to come. That is a weapon that is going to
be very hard to game plan for. And I can
tell you this as they get ready, uh to head
(30:37):
to green Bay to take on Aaron Rodgers and company.
Though that defensive green Bay is gonna have their hands
full with that kid, because you ain't you ain't manning
up on him. Uh, you are absolutely not. And now
that Russell Wilson has figured it out here and those
two are getting on the same page, that is a
lethal combination. Both defenses showed up, showed out unfortunately Seattle.
(31:00):
That's moving on, Philadelphia going home. Question marks around Carson
Wentz once again. We'll have more on that game. Plus
we'll take ahead a look ahead actually on those lines
for the upcoming weekend in the NFL divisional matchups. Will
do that next. You're on the Grid sports grid dot
Com Sports grid dot com betting insights and entertainment at
(31:24):
your fingertips as our team covers the most important topics
in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. All right, big, big, big weekend.
(31:51):
That was, of course, NFL underdogs pretty profitable this uh
this weekend two and one against the non here on
the weekend, you did have a pick them, of course,
and that game was won by Seattle. Uh. Some might
even say that there were a number of different places
where Philadelphia was actually by kickoff the favorite there with
(32:13):
that big push in the end, that influx of some
big money pushing the line towards Philadelphia's. So if that's
the case, dogs three and one against the number this weekend,
big money. Of course, Tennessee the night before taking down
Tom Brady and company. Uh, cash in air plus one
ninety on the money line. They were getting. Uh, they
(32:35):
were certainly getting their fair share of points to is
the money kept rolling in for New England. Five five
and a half points is what Tennessee was getting. They
didn't need it, almost a two dollar underdog. Uh, they
cashed out. And of course we told you about Minnesota
yesterday they amed two plus three twenty five on the
money line. Chu ching Uh that was awesome if you
(32:57):
guys had gone contrarian and back the underdogs in those matchups.
And again the big story the unders guys unders four
and oh that's right, four no, uh to the under
three and one first half unders as well. Uh. The
only game that went over the first half was the
(33:17):
ridiculousness that happened in the New England game early on
where they scored all their points in the first half
nothing in the second half. So first half unders three
and one, full game unders four and no on the
weekend in the NFL, and that means we've got everything
all set. And of course the uh, the Houston Texans
(33:40):
coming back winning that game, and just a comedy of
errors late in that late in that ball game. But
what can you say, the Buffalo Bills, you gotta lose
in order to be able to learn how to win.
And Houston Deshaun Watson, they were in that spot last year.
They ended up losing Andrew Luck and company and the Cults.
(34:02):
They came back and when they needed Deshaun Watson to
make a play, he made a play. He made a
couple of plays there in the end, despite his coach
doing everything humanly possible to lose the game, Houston ends
up advancing and taking down the Buffalo Bills. But certainly
the stock is is continuing to rise for the Buffalo
(34:22):
Bills as a team, and yet the return of J. J.
Watt really had a huge impact on that defense for
the Houston Texans. Everything they do or that they didn't
do well when he was gone, they did well in
that game. He brings a completely different dimension to that defense.
(34:42):
They are a different team with him. And of course,
as long as you got DeShawn Watson back there, you
have an opportunity with the hop and others to be
able to do some interesting things. And they're gonna have
to do some very interesting things. He are moving forward
because they're traveling to take on Andy Reid and another
guy that can do some pretty cool stuff as a
(35:04):
quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. And uh, it's going to be guys,
I'm telling you right now, this is going to be
one hell of a game with these two quarterbacks, these
two young quarterbacks getting it done. The Texans taking care
of business. Now they move to take on Andy Reid
coming off of bye, and that's never good, guys. Andy
(35:25):
Reid's record coming off of by is crazy. Uh. And
they're gonna have to go into Kansas City, who, to
their credits, the Houston Texans now Kansas City not exactly
a great home field advantage. In fact, they score more
points on the road than they actually do in Kansas City.
So k C is coming off that first round by
(35:47):
They finished the regular season twelve and fourth straight up,
eleven and five against the number. They are also five
and three against the number at Arrowheads Stadium, averaging around
twenty eight points per game on offense, that defense one
of the best in the National Football League the second
half of the season, only nineteen points per game they've
been giving up now. This line opened with Kansas City
(36:09):
listed as an eight point favorite in many places, a
home favorite, and I can tell you it didn't take
long before that number to continue to rise as the
money kept pouring in on the Kansas City Chiefs. There.
In fact, that line has been pushed up. I'm seeing
nine and a half even ten at some spots right now,
(36:29):
and I do think there'll be some buy back here
at some particular point. But it opening up at eight,
it does not surprise me. I knew that line was
going to continue to rise as people were gonna back
Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes. A lot of people don't buy
Bill O'Brien or the or the Houston Texans uh in
this particular spot, but the Houston Texans in this game
(36:52):
do still provide some value as a road dog getting
you know, almost double digit points in the playoffs, because
we've told you before divisional round dogs. This week we
talked about the wild card trends. Here's a divisional round
trend for you dogs. Divisional round dogs thirty eight and
twenty four against the number six since two thousand three,
(37:13):
and if they are more than a touchdown dog, thirty
six and so there is some value there backing Houston
is that number continues to rise. And by the way,
team's coming off a first round by not exactly great
against the number guys forty three and fifty two against
the number. And we did see this, by the way,
(37:34):
earlier this year, if you don't recall, the Texans travel
to Arrowhead, I believe it was mid October somewhere around there. Uh,
they beat the Chiefs guys thirty one to twenty four.
They were a three and a half point dog and
they took down the Chiefs and Arrowhead. So they do
have that going for him. Keep that in mind. The
total forty nine and a half, I've seen it at
(37:55):
forty nine and a half. I'm seeing a forty nine
or two out there as well. But for the most part.
The Uh, I do think given the weather in Arrowhead,
we are probably again gonna be looking at that number,
the under maybe getting more of the money. So if
it's at nine and a half, do not at all
be surprised if we don't see that number dropped down
(38:16):
to forty eight and a half or forty eight before long.
And I don't need to remind you, but postseason the
under twenty three and thirteen since two thousand three, especially
when the winds are blowing, and the winds will be
blowing at Arrowhead. Uh, this weekend. As far as the
other game goes in the a f C, you've got
the Titans, of course, that win over New England. Well,
(38:37):
their prize is to have to go take on the
Baltimore Ravens now, which is uh, you know, never good. Uh.
The Ravens best record in the NFL, A league best
two nine point differential. You just the Titans were plus
seventy one alright, just to give you an idea what's
going on there? Baltimore ten five and one against the
number this year just four and four at home though
(39:00):
not great against the number at home the Baltimore Ravens,
but they average in thirty three points per game on
offense only given up seventeen. I can tell you this
offense is gonna be a little bit different than the
one they just faced even in Foxborough for New England,
and it's gonna be all about the rushing attack for
(39:21):
both of these teams. Can Derrick Henry do what he
did against that New England defense? Can Tannehill continue to
make throws when he needs to the betters? As far
as the markets go, the Titans um opened up. I
believe in a ten point ten point underdog in this game,
(39:43):
and I am seeing that it's moved down just a
little bit. I'm seeing nines right now, nine and a half,
but uh we should see that probably tick back up
as more of the public backs. I am sure going
to be backing the Baltimore Ravens in this spot and
again ten points, double digits. Both of these a f
(40:07):
C games are going to be focused on two teams
as double digit dogs and double digit favorites. And don't
need to explain to you dogs thirty if it's a
touchdown or more so, there's definitely some value going contrarian
and backing the underdogs in the A f C if
that's the route you want to go. However, in the NFC,
(40:32):
it's a little different of his story. Uh, you do
have the forty Niners had opened up as a uh
seven point favorite against the Vikings. I see that has
already been pushed down to around six and a half
just under a touchdown, as I am sure the professional
betters came in there, so that key number of seven
and started pounding the the um the Vikings in this game.
(40:56):
So now we're seeing six and a half the total
hovering around forty forty five and a half in that one.
And then the Packers at home and Lambeau taking on
the uh the Seahawks. That's a three and a half points.
Packers are three and a half point home favorite in
that it's kind of stayed that way ever since it
opened up yesterday last night. Uh, the total is forty six.
(41:17):
So we'll keep an eye on these lines as they
as they move forward. But it's the a f C
that seems to be the most lopsided right now because
you have guys two number six is to six seeds
right now advanced out of the A f C. So
you've got one six versus two six here in the
(41:40):
too four rather you've got one six for the Ravens Titans.
You also have won six with the forty nine Ers Vikings,
which is kind of crazy. You've got to four matchup
there with the Kansas City Chiefs taken on the Texans,
and a uh and just a to five matchup going
on between the Packers and the Seahawks. So much still
(42:03):
to be determined here this weekend. But I implore you, guys,
I am imploring you that once again you're gonna be
faced with an opportunity to be able to place a bet.
And this is of course always a good reminder, a
good lesson here in gambling. You what you just saw
(42:23):
this weekend from these teams that advanced, Okay, it's great,
but let's be realistic. That has absolutely nothing to do
with what is going to happen this weekend. The defensive
showing of Minnesota is great. Uh, they bawled out there,
a big reason as to why they beat New Orleans
(42:45):
in the upset. But New Orleans is not going to
be the forty niners. Uh. This is a totally different matchup,
totally different set of skills. So while they did great
against them in New Orleans. Do not let that influence
the way that you look at this team. And at
(43:07):
the same time, that goes both ways. Coming off a
bye week. I gave you those numbers, you know, teams
that rest a week not exactly great against the number
in this spot. So sometimes there's something to be said
about teams just continuing to play, even though it's gonna
be on the road. Teams that continue to play, they
might start hitting their stride. And we see it every year,
(43:29):
teams getting hot. So don't discount or don't just don't
be influenced by a big game that you witnessed these
teams win here like Houston or the Vikings, or don't
just you know, don't discount Deshaun Watson's ability to get
a game. Whatever they did against Buffalo, whatever they did
(43:49):
against the Eagles, got no bearing on what's gonna happen
this weekend. So look at the matchups. Keep an eye
on those under trends again, take a look at how
they defensively match up against those position players. The good
thing about Houston and Kansas City is we've already seen
this match up to a certain extent earlier this year,
(44:10):
So forget about whatever it is you just watched. Don't
let it influence your betting decisions as you head into
this divisional match up in the NFL here in this weekend,
in the playoffs, because that's where people start to get
into trouble. They either split too much weight or all
their weight backing. But well, did you see how great
(44:32):
they look? Did you see what they did? That defense
balled out? Just I would caution you take a step
back and realize, totally different matchup, totally different scenario. Uh,
and really take a look more at the playoff trends.
If you're gonna look at any trends, look at the
playoff trends here when we get to this point in January.
(44:53):
There is something to be learned there. Not the end
all be all, but there is certainly something to be
learned and what we I've seen over the last couple
of years in these playoffs, And always ask yourself, why
why does this keep happening? Why are road teams continuing
to dominate? Why are unders continuing to dominate? Ask yourself
(45:14):
those questions and you'll be on the right side of
these plays coming up this week. And I'm sure applots
it doesn't hurt to be watching us all week, and
we'll do that in fact coming up here as we
look and make it rain next year on the grid,
we'll break down those games for you. Take a look
ahead coming up next year. Good luck. We'll talk again tomorrow.
(45:38):
Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than get on the grid.
Sports grid dot Com High over Look. I need your help.
(46:02):
Here's what you missed on the morning line. Kirk Cousins
did have a message for for his teammates and of
course for a lot of the doubters that always doubted him,
not just this year, but pretty much is entire career. Hey, hey,
(46:24):
that's how we won All year team, right? You held him? Man,
you's a chance. At the end, I got three words
for you. Do you like Yeah? Needless to say, you
like that? Kurt Cousins getting the last laugh here, guys,
and kudos to him. Good for him, Good for Zimmer.
(46:44):
I think we can put to bed the narrative also
that Zimmer is somehow going to be the next coach
of the Dallas Cowboys that somehow another um the ownership
group in Minnesota is gonna want to move on from
Zimmer not being able to get the job done. No,
they got the job done. They got the job done
in a big way. The biggest underdog plus three twenty
on the money line. Guys, yesterday, they are a winner.
(47:08):
Not only did they cover, but they cashed big time yesterday.
For better is under also cashed in that game. That
was the highest total of the of the weekend by far.
They were expecting fireworks in in New Orleans. But again,
like we told you, those trends in the playoffs, they
tend to be a little bit more truer and a
(47:30):
little less variance because of the quality of the competition
and you've got so much data backing it, and defense
shows up in the big moments, and this is not
one of those. You know, you're not playing the Bengals,
you're not playing the Dolphins, you're not playing the Giants.
This is a different situation in the wild card and
(47:51):
not the Not only the unders cash in this game,
they cash in every game, all four of them, beginning
on Saturday with Buffalo and two games went to overtime
and the unders still cash. So this is another one
of those moments where you know, write it down in
that sports betting journal you have, and I certainly hope
(48:12):
you have one and have heated our advice that there
are things to learn each and every bet that you
make throughout your entire sports investing career. You should be
writing notes down, especially when things that you can take
away from certain bets that you made certain times of
years in sports. And remember this. Come next year, we'll
(48:34):
be reminding you once again. But you stick this in
the back of your head and remember that yes, unders
in the wild card round defense will show up and
will show out, and yes, been one of the most
profitable bets to make since two thousand and five, hanging
out with those unders in this round and all four
(48:56):
cash
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