2026 AFC Win Totals Draft with Nick Wright

Gregg Rosenthal and FS1's Nick Wright take a look at the AFC win totals and draft the over or unders that they feel most confident in headed into the 2026 NFL season. Both Nick and Gregg have surprising AFC North picks. Will the Ravens live up to their lofty billing? Will the Patriots repeat in the AFC East? Can you possibly guess the opposite sides Nick and Gregg are on with the Chargers?

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome to NFL Daily, where it's time to start putting
pen to paper, voice to recorder, I don't know, and
actually make some freaking final predictions for this season. And
there's no one I would rather do it with than
Nick Wright, back on the show. to do our over-under draft.

(00:24):
This time, Justin, the AFC. Nick Wright, of course, from
What's Right on YouTube. Check out his podcast. And then
First Things First every day. This is your third show
of the day. So I feel special that.

Speaker 2 (00:36):
You- Third show of the day. This is, you know,
while today, while I was at the deli getting my lunch,
I was listening to Quarterback Island. And I, you know,
there's just a lot of what I would call Patrick
Mahomes microaggressions going on these days. Like, I heard the

(00:57):
sad fact that you were like, hey, here's the list
of quarterback, the one quarterback who's never left the island.
The all-time great, zero-time All-Pro, zero-time AFC champion, Josh Allen.
I'm like, wow, they kicked... Patrick Mahomes got his knee
blown out, so they kicked him off the island. Then I, like,
it just so... You know what? But I'm glad to

(01:18):
be here. You know you are... either my favorite or
second favorite podcast in the world. And it's the only
reason I don't like coming on is because now tomorrow
I don't have NFL daily to listen to. Cause I'm
on here, but I'm here whenever you want me. So
I can beat you in over unders like I did

(01:38):
last year.

Speaker 1 (01:39):
Did I not? I wouldn't be about it. You did.

Speaker 2 (01:42):
You did.

Speaker 1 (01:43):
We were terrible in the three previous years.

Speaker 2 (01:45):
We were really bad.

Speaker 1 (01:47):
I had gone 11 and 0 combined. I had just
picked my favorite three, my favorite three, and then four
the following year. And I'd hit all 11. I got
overconfident and we picked eight across the league. Now we're
going to just break it up by conferences because I just,
I want to get more in. I went two and six.
You went three and five.

Speaker 2 (02:05):
Well, that's a winner.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
The difference, unfortunately, was we split on the Cowboys and,
And you won't remember this. I do remember.

Speaker 2 (02:13):
We did a thing where like we split the difference,
but then they had a tie or something stupid. It
screwed you.

Speaker 1 (02:20):
But we had a side agreement that we would actually
put up the logo for each other's podcast on each
other's show. uh and which which all the with all
the followers of the white's right podcast you know you
were putting more on the line here so uh eric
if you can do that you have to put up
uh nick's podcast logo just a little bit that part.

Speaker 2 (02:42):
I did forget i did forget that we made that
bet holy moly and this is probably now also showing
on that like nfl fast channel or whatever if.

Speaker 1 (02:52):
Not quite yet. We get there next week. But yes,
check us out. Subscribe to us on YouTube. You get
the first overall pick. Let's not waste any more time.
And so let's not make it a microaggression. Let's make
it a macro belief in the Chiefs. Come on.

Speaker 2 (03:04):
Nope, that's not going to be my first overall pick
because I have draft strategy. Instead, I'm going to wreck
your entire draft board by shocking you. With the first
overall pick, I take over 11 and a half for
the Baltimore Ravens.

Speaker 1 (03:17):
That's not wrecking my board. It's on my board. It's
not in the top four, but it was on there.
I would have taken it today.

Speaker 2 (03:23):
So listen, the rationale is very simple. I do think
the Ravens were over and Lamar was over John Harbaugh.
I also think there is a slight chance that John
Harbaugh with the Giants is a little closer to Pete
Carroll with the Raiders than anybody would have hoped. And

(03:45):
so I think it's just I love the addition of
Jesse Minter. I think that instantly makes the defense better.
I think Lamar obviously will be better than he was
last year. And, you know, you can make an argument
that over the last five years, Lamar has quite simply
been the most dominant regular season player in the whole

(04:06):
league last year, notwithstanding. I don't think they have an
incredibly difficult schedule. And I think they're going to be
the number one seed in the AFC and win 13 games.
So I have the Baltimore Ravens over 11 and a
half with the first pick of the over under AFC draft.

Speaker 1 (04:23):
I am surprised. And I got to admit, I could
have cheated and scouted your picks. I happened to see
you know, your show, you know, the clips being sent
out of Broussard and some of the predictions you had
on Monday of AFCs. I said, I should not watch this.
This is unfair to know about. But I would have
taken the Ravens. The schedule's doing a lot of work.
They play the NFC South out of division. I think

(04:44):
people are a little surprised about the over-unders, the win
totals for the Bengals and the Ravens specifically. But I'm
on the same side of you there. And look, I
think Lamar or Patrick Mahomes are the two best options
to take If you were picking MVP right now in
terms of odds. And I think, I think what's been
underrated here for the Ravens is the defense is what

(05:07):
got John Harbaugh fired. Everyone in the building knew where
the outside doesn't seem to that John Harbaugh is a
defensive coach. He keeps, you know, these coordinators get a
lot of the credit. He's in all those meetings. He's
a defensive guy. It's a, I agree with your point
overall about Harbaugh, about what could happen. But I think
the upgrade coaching-wise on defense, and I like their talent
a little better, especially the depth of their pass rush,

(05:29):
from Jesse Minner on the defense, all he's got to
do is make the defense like a plus defense, and
I think then they're going to win.

Speaker 2 (05:36):
Yeah, Derrick Henry's still going to be great, and it
turns out Zay Flowers is Justin Jefferson. Who knew? The
Ravens know. They paid him like it. So, I mean,
I expect a monster year from him. That's the under-the-radar,
most baffling decision of the offseason. giving Zane Flowers $ 35
million a year. But that doesn't hurt them this year. So, yeah,
I think the Ravens love him.

Speaker 1 (05:55):
These contracts, you got to look at the fine print.
It's out into the future. It was an extension. At
some point, he'll be the 17th highest paid wide receiver.
And Lamar Jackson likes him. He's also, they need him.
He's the only guy they have. But I don't want
to get stuck on Zane Flowers. I'm going Texans over
nine and a half as my team. I know the
schedule people say is tough. For what it's worth, FDN

(06:17):
Almanac has it as a pretty average schedule. It looks
harder than that to me. I am buying the hype.
I'm fueling the hype. I think the offensive line depth
is better. I think the offense made strides last year
and should be better in year two of the same system.
And I think they're going to pair some things down
with Nick Cayley was trying to fuse like the Patriots
and what Stroud likes to do. The defense just gives

(06:39):
them a crazy floor. And more than anything, D'Amico, Nick,
Has won 10, 10, and 12 in his three years.
He provides a floor. I'm buying this team as a
real deal Super Bowl contender, so I don't care about
the schedule over nine and a half for the Texans.

Speaker 2 (06:54):
So I am a little... I don't want to say
I'm skeptical on Super Bowl contender. I am more confident...
that they'll win 10-plus games than I am that they'll
be a good postseason team because I am legitimately concerned
about C.J. Stroud. I mean, the last time we saw C.J.

(07:17):
Stroud in a playoff game, he turned it over four times.
And while if you're Josh Allen, that makes you the
best player in the league, for most guys, we don't
like that. And so I, too, I think there is
potentially really– you know, some scar tissue from that. I
just don't know if they need a good offense to
win 11 games.

Speaker 1 (07:36):
And I think that- Are you just trying to make
our producer, Eric Matt, who's a Bills fan, just.

Speaker 2 (07:40):
Need a- No, listen. I mean, listen.

Speaker 1 (07:44):
He played well in that Broncos game, by the way,
Josh Allen. I know there were a lot of turnovers,
but he made a lot.

Speaker 2 (07:49):
See, this is what I'm saying. This is why I
end up being considered some a-hole troll because I hear
people be like, Oh, yeah. Josh Allen, the playoff game
where he had four turnovers and then was he recognized
the only two people in the world who recognize Josh
Allen cost in that playoff game or me and Josh Allen,

(08:11):
which is why he was crying after the game and
his coach was fired because he was crying after the game.
I'm like, hey, that's probably not great. Everyone else is
like best player in the league. You know what?

Speaker 1 (08:21):
I just like winding you up, and we're not even
on the bills yet.

Speaker 2 (08:24):
Sorry, Eric. Listen, Eric, we'll get to the bills later.
I'm high on the bills this year, kind of. But
I don't think the Texans have to have a great
offense to win 11 games. If they have a good offense,
I think they'll win 12 games. And if they have
a very good offense, they can win the Super Bowl.
I totally agree with you on D'Amico and the defense,
and I think it's like a league average schedule. I

(08:46):
look at it and I'm like, OK, so you get
the you get the AFC. I'm sorry, the NFC East.
I don't think that's a brutal draw at all. Your
strength of schedule games are really hard because second place
got you the Ravens and the I'm sorry, you were
going to play the Ravens anyway, but the Chargers and
the Bills. So that's not great. But yeah, I agree
with you on that. So we have had two picks

(09:09):
where we agree with each other. I think this will
be the first one. where I take a team that
you would have gone the other way on, but I
am a steaming under on a team that in their
defense four years ago was really good for a season.
Under 10 and a half for the Cincinnati Bengals.

Speaker 1 (09:31):
Oh, I'm on the same side of you.

Speaker 2 (09:33):
Oh, okay.

Speaker 1 (09:34):
But it's low. I don't know if I would have
had the guts to make it about my eighth pick
if we get through eight teams. So I'm glad that
you have the stones to do it so early make
the case for me.

Speaker 2 (09:48):
Yeah I they have a really good quarterback who you
know what a great quarterback who is an injury risk
but he's a great quarterback they have a great wide
receiver and another really good wide receiver. And that's what,
or what I like about the team end.

Speaker 1 (10:09):
They have a fine Dexter Lawrence.

Speaker 2 (10:12):
I was going to get there. They have a fine
running back in chase Brown and, Dexter Lawrence it was
an obscene overpay but again that doesn't matter in the
short term he's a really good player but this was
the 30 this was either the worst of the second
worst defense in everything last year Dexter Lawrence and Brian
Cook don't fix that when I look at the Bengals

(10:32):
I'm like I don't trust their defense as a whole
I don't trust their coaching staff at all I think
they have a bad offensive line I don't think they're
the type of team that's going to make in season,
you know, massive trade, Howie Roseman style. And everyone is
so hung up on the fact that four, five years ago,
five years ago, They beat Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill,

(10:58):
and then a second half concussed Patrick Mahomes.

Speaker 1 (11:01):
They were good the next year. They were actually better
the next year. They were a good team the next year.

Speaker 2 (11:05):
Listen, and so I kid a little bit on that
part of it, but the Bengals, we do this on
the TV show all the time, expect the Bengals to
return to contender status. The Bengals had, in my opinion,
14 months as a contender from like, November of Joe
Burrow's second year through his third season. Like, and because

(11:30):
that second year they started seven and six, and then
they got hot. They got hot by beating the chiefs
and then got the Super Bowl, beating the chiefs. The
next year they won 12 games, but that's the only
time they've won the division. That's the only time they've
won more than 10 games. And again, The Bengals with
Burrow have never had a top five offense, points or yards.

(11:50):
Even the years he's been fully healthy. And the one
other thing is how this season starts for the Bengals.
I feel like we're going to get a lot of
Emo Joe press conferences. Home Bucks, at Texans, at Steelers,
home Jags. Then you get the Dolphins, then at Ravens.
It feels like they have a real potential to be

(12:12):
two and four and Burrow standing up there talking about how,
you know, how fun is football anymore, which I hate
to see because he is an awesome player. I think
the Bengals win eight, nine games. I'm under 10 and
a half.

Speaker 1 (12:25):
I got there in the end, picking them under, despite
my initial reaction to the off season was kind of
the conventional consensus one. It was like, yeah, this, this should,
this should be their year. And then I thought about it.
Zach Taylor's been their coach seven years. As you mentioned,
he's been over 10 wins once. Joe Burrow has been
their quarterback six years. He's done that once. Healthy Joe Burrow,

(12:47):
if you want to go there, has done it once
in three seasons. They are ninth. You want to say, well,
Burrow wasn't healthy a lot of those things.

Speaker 2 (12:53):
Sure.

Speaker 1 (12:54):
Just over the last three years, when he's healthy, their
team has gone 19 and 16 with him at quarterback.
And the key thing I think you said, because I
think the defense will be better. The key thing to
me is This idea that the offensive line, because they
ranked pretty well in past block win rate or something
last year, is good is wrong, I think, at this point.

(13:15):
Because I don't think Orlando Brown is a plus starter. Wait,
people think the offensive line is good? Yeah, they get
a little bit of credit, like, oh, that they solved that.
And I think that their scheme change could cover it up.
But I also worry about Zach Taylor in a scheme
change with Joe Burrow. I'm with you, but you got
him ahead of me. I will go under on the Titans.

(13:36):
So my Bengals pick was largely just organizational. I just,
I don't like the stink around it. And sometimes I
think the Titans don't get brought in with the Jets
and the Browns and the Cardinals as the very worst.
And they spent a lot of money this year. They
are at six and a half this off season. And
I think this is just where they are. This idea

(13:56):
that Robert Sala can coach up defenses is, It's true-ish,
but if you look at the first year he was
with the Jets, guess what they finished in efficiency, Nick, overall? 14.

Speaker 2 (14:07):
32nd.

Speaker 1 (14:07):
Dead last.

Speaker 2 (14:08):
No, wait, really?

Speaker 1 (14:10):
And then they were top, like, three the next couple
of years. But his first year, when he brought the
system over to the Jets, they were literally dead last.
He got a lot of credit last year for kind
of making it work. They won a lot of games
for the 49ers. They were 27th in DVOA. This is
not Jesse Minter. This is not new.
They let Brian Dable run their off season as like

(14:30):
the front office. That seems weird. Like he, he literally
was responsible for more free agent signings than, than non
Brian Dable signings were just guys. He knew whether it
was on offense or defense, they've had three straight seasons
under six wins. Some of the money they spent, like
I think was okay. Others were Cordell Flott and Alante Taylor.
I just add it all up. I think it's a
underrated division. And I just think they're still one of

(14:53):
the worst three or four teams in the NFL.

Speaker 2 (14:55):
So again, this is a little scary. If I had
to pick the Titans, I would have been an under.
So we're four for four in agreement, which given our
record last year is maybe not ideal. But they wouldn't
have been one of my top 10 picks because the only,
and again, I don't know if this is interesting content,

(15:18):
but when five of their, I'm sorry, seven of their
games are against, Colts, Browns, Jets, Raiders, Commanders, Giants, it
feels like they're going to have a lot of opportunities to,
you know, now every time they're on someone's schedule, that

(15:39):
team's fans is like, that's the week we're going to win.
I get that. But I agree with a lot of
what you were saying. The only, let me defend Bobby
Sala a tiny bit. I am, because I was very
critical of him with the Jets. I am open to
the possibility that every coach in league history should have

(16:01):
their Jets tenure just erased from their record. That it's
just like an unwinnable situation. And then we should evaluate
you outside of what you did with the Jets. I
think that, you know, probably I feel almost the same
way with the Browns, which is why I feel terribly
for my guy, Eric Mangini, who got two head coaching

(16:22):
opportunities is the Jets and the Browns. Like you're out
of here, buddy. Like those not ideal. And so I,
I do, I am open to the possibility that Sala
will be good. And I'm open to the possibility that
Cam Ward will, you know, have a big year to jump,
but there's not a lot of evidence that Cam Ward's
going to have a year to jump. It's just that

(16:43):
he was the number one play.

Speaker 1 (16:44):
Well, they could tell it could do a lot of
good things. And they, I think five and 12, six
and 11 would be fine.

Speaker 2 (16:50):
And that's still an under, that's a good point.

Speaker 1 (16:51):
That's an under. I just don't know why they didn't
get treated. There's a couple three and a half over-unders
out there. The Jets are a five and a half.
I didn't get why the Titans got that extra bump.

Speaker 2 (17:00):
I guess it was. That's fair.

Speaker 1 (17:02):
I'm just going.

Speaker 2 (17:03):
To stay in the same division. And the wanton, blatant, outrageous.
These aren't microaggressions. These are macroaggressions. Disrespect.

Speaker 1 (17:15):
I know where you're going. And this was next on
my list. I should have thought about what you were
going to do.

Speaker 2 (17:19):
For the prince that was promised and my guy, Trevor Lawrence.
These guys won 13 games last year.

Speaker 1 (17:25):
It was third on my list. I'm really mad. I
could have seen this coming. There's no way you were
thinking about the Titans. I didn't really think about.

Speaker 2 (17:31):
The draft that second. Here's the thing you got to
recognize about me. I have cable TV brain. So even
if I loved the Titans, I'm like, we don't want
to talk about the Titans early.

Speaker 1 (17:41):
This is a podcast. We try to treat, especially before
the season, 32 teams. I'm into them.

Speaker 2 (17:46):
No, I know that. But so just in gaming out
my picks, I'm going to go sexy teams early. And
while the Jags are not a sexy team to anyone else,
they are to me. They won 13 games last year.
I understand they lost. And I want to ask you
about Travis A. Chan. Remind me. Let's come back to
him in a second. But I get that. Here's what

(18:08):
I know. They're not going to get less out of
Travis Hunter. I know that. I know that Liam Cohen
and Trevor Lawrence seem to get along quite well. We're
going to get them in year two. I know that.
I know that Trevor is coming off arguably the best
year of his career, and they could go minus four
wins from last season. and still hit an over. I

(18:31):
saw they played a playoff game against, you know, the
quarterback of the decade, Josh Allen, and had a lead
with two minutes left. And so I just think the Jags,
I don't think they're going to win the division again.
I don't think they're going to win 13 games again,
but I think they can win 10 and make the
playoffs over eight and a half Jacksonville.

Speaker 1 (18:53):
I hate this. It's actually the reason you won. the
over-unders last year is you sniped them from me early
in that draft. And the same, and I said the
same thing. And I bet you would have gotten your
other pick wrong if I had taken them. And I
would have won.

Speaker 2 (19:07):
That was my trend.

Speaker 1 (19:09):
I was trying to figure out why are they in
the half? Like I, and then I, okay, these are
the reasons I tried to come up with grant. You know,
like I said, this was, this was third on my board.
So I'm, I'm very in. Like, you know, the Prince
that was promised, your guy Trevor Lawrence. Like, his inconsistencies
may be a little baked in. Turnover regression on defense.
They were 6-3, which is good. Not crazy in one-score games.
Maybe a little bit of a year-two fall-off plexiglass principle

(19:32):
when you have that big of a jump up. But
the reason why I dismiss all of that is I
started thinking about it. And Liam Cohen is my pick
for best play caller in the AFC, period. Like, I
put him right there with Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay.
And if you want to throw Ben Johnson and Matt Lafleur,

(19:52):
maybe in that mix, I think Cohen's in it for good. He,
they made such a great hire. he might be a
little more emotional and running the organization. Like there might
be crazy moments, but just in terms of making offense sing,
he's awesome. And he's got the pieces to do it.
So I just don't understand why they aren't going to
win 10 games at least.

Speaker 2 (20:13):
All right. This is wild that we have, we're yet
to have some of us, one of us draft the
team and the person be like, I was going to
go the other way. Okay.

Speaker 1 (20:21):
Maybe I'll do one just, just to make it interesting.
Cause I, I really doubt you'll go Steelers over eight
and a half, but I'm going to do it.

Speaker 2 (20:30):
I'm going to do it. Wow. Wow.

Speaker 1 (20:32):
Mike McCarthy. Yeah, this could be done draft wise, but
I do feel strongly about it. All the other AFC
North teams got huge schedule bumps. Like that's the biggest
reason I think the Bengals are at 10 and a half.
The Ravens are at 11 and a half. Mike McCarthy
is absolutely an upgrade on Arthur Smith. I think there's

(20:53):
more worlds than not where Patrick Graham is an upgrade
in terms of modern defenses compared to where Mike Tomlin
was at. You know, never moving TJ Watt around, all
that sort of thing. I have concerns, the defensive backs,
the linebackers, Aaron Rodgers. But I think about line play
when I do all this stuff. I love their defensive line.
And I think the offensive line has got a lot

(21:14):
of potential. And McCarthy's a good floor raiser for offensive lines,
for quarterbacks. I think Rodgers will be a little better.
And the schedule bump, because they play the NFC South
out of division is, is really significant for me. So
I think they'll find their way to get to nine
or 10 wins.

Speaker 2 (21:29):
So I agree with you on the schedule bump. I
think that Tomlin was holding more together than we think
than we thought. And I also, I just don't know,
like I was talking about, I was thinking about this
today on the show or on what's right. What's the
over under I would set. on starts by Aaron Rogers.

(21:54):
And I think I would set it at 12 and
a half. And when they, they post by once the
weather gets cold and Aaron's 42, is that right? And
he's going to be 43 or he's 41. He's going
to be 42. Here's who they play starting after the

(22:15):
buy in Cincinnati, in Philadelphia, home for Denver, home for Houston,
at Jacksonville, that's not cold, home for Baltimore. That six game,
five of those games, cold weather, old Aaron Rodgers. I
also don't know if I'm... believing in third stop Mike McCarthy.

(22:37):
So you're, I might've actually picked the Steelers, but it's
because I think I projected them to go six and 11.
So we are in, we are diametrically opposed.

Speaker 1 (22:48):
No, I can't.

Speaker 2 (22:49):
I see. I feel like once a team's been taken,
it's gone.

Speaker 1 (22:54):
I think, you know, you can, I think you can
take the other side. I mean, this, by the way,
even though it says it's my what's right. Can we,
can we take it back? I was just saying the
same thing. Like, we're going to want to cut some
social from this clip.

Speaker 2 (23:07):
I know.

Speaker 1 (23:08):
You can't do any of the original teams. I'm not
cutting it with what's right with Nick Wright. So, Eric,
behind the glass. There we go. We're back to NFL Daily.
Thank you.

Speaker 2 (23:16):
All right. So, is it my go? Yeah.

Speaker 1 (23:19):
And this shows, like, I'm not. I try to do
things unemotionally. I am a Rodgers hater. I don't believe
in him. And I still went with him over. You're up.

Speaker 2 (23:29):
Wow. You said that and you didn't disclose your back status.
What a hypocrite. I am going under nine and a
half wins for the six time defending off season, AFC
West champion, Los Angeles chargers.

Speaker 1 (23:51):
Let's go. I love that. All right.

Speaker 2 (23:55):
We're on the opposite sides now from, from the studio
that brought you Brandon. It's Brandon Staley's fault. And then
the sequel of, you know what? This defense might be
a little overrated. And then the trilogy of, gosh darn it,

(24:17):
Joe Alt's actually the league's most valuable player. Get ready
for part four titled, Who Can Win Without Biotish? And
so I'm looking in to the crystal ball of excuses.
And you know what we're about to hear? Yeah. Can

(24:38):
we get him a number one receiver? Quentin Johnston, why
are they still trotting him out there? Lad McConkie's nice.
He's a slot receiver. Today, Jim Harbaugh explained how they're
going to play the hot-handed guard. That would concern me.
Did you see that quote, Greg? I did.

Speaker 1 (24:56):
You know, the former dynastic Patriots used to do the
same thing at the beginning of the season if I
wanted to spin it positively. So....

Speaker 2 (25:05):
I look at the Chargers roster and I say, I
don't love their skill position, guys. I have major questions
about the interior of their offensive line. You have been
the only person covering... the at least somewhat concern about

(25:26):
Rashawn Slater's return. Like, you've done a good job on
that part of it. I think the defense is fine,
but every year we talk about midway through a season,
we're like, man, what happened to that team? It's like, oh,
they lost their coordinator. Well, they lost one of the
best coordinators, the guy we think is going to help Baltimore,
and they're in a tough division, and their strength of

(25:48):
schedule games– Denver won the division. Their strength of schedule
games are Jags, Steelers, and what's the other one? The I, sorry, Panthers.
The Chargers came in second in the division. Their strength
is schedule games. Instead of the Steelers, they get the Ravens.
Instead of the Jags, they get the Texans. And instead

(26:10):
of the Panthers, they get the Bucs. So they just
have a far more difficult schedule. And the way that
schedule plays out is weeks, I think it's three through ten,
this is the Chargers' run. At Buffalo, at Seattle, home
for Denver, at the Chiefs, at the Rams, home for
the Texans, at the Ravens. Good luck. I think that

(26:31):
they win eight– I don't know if we have them
eight and nine or nine and eight, and we are–
I don't know who's going to be blamed. I know
it won't be Justin Herbert because he can throw the
ball over the mountain, but I.

Speaker 1 (26:46):
I just don't, I don't think this is, do you
think Harvard played poorly last year in the regular season,
which is all that these windows are judging? No, no, no, no.

Speaker 2 (26:54):
I thought in the regular season, Herbert played really well.
And I think that, I think that, you know, in
a more just universe that, you know, there's a, do you,
are you a Marvel fan? I'm not really a Marvel.
I don't know a ton about that stuff. Maybe Walker does,
but you know, there's a multiverse theory where there's a
bunch of different, you know, versions of the universe. In

(27:14):
the multiverse where the NFL has the English Premier League rules,
where there is no postseason, it's just regular season. Justin
Herbert's the guy so many of our colleagues think he is.
But you're right. This isn't a playoff show.

Speaker 1 (27:27):
I mean, I think he is. I think he's that guy.
If you didn't know, you lose your football hipster cred
if you don't. believe Justin and CJ Stroud is better than,
than you think he is. I'm going the other side over,
by the way, I don't care about you thinking they're
off the board. They were, they were one of my
last picks. They would probably would have been my last,
but just, just to make it interesting, I'm going to

(27:48):
go over. What were you going to ask me?

Speaker 2 (27:52):
Oh, I have two questions. Cause I also had a
Travis HN question. But first on the chargers, cause I
know there's a regular season show. I know that. I
just have a question for you since you're one of
the Herbert guys. Let's say they win 11 games again.
And he's really good again. Is this the year? where

(28:17):
if this year in the first playoff game, if it's
three in a row, if we have a three-year sample
of the three worst games he has played of the 54,
if the dead last, second last, and third last are
the playoff games, are we then allowed to say, You

(28:37):
know what? Maybe there's something up with this.

Speaker 1 (28:40):
I will accept that. And there is absolutely something up
with it. Like he's gotten tight in the playoffs. I
think that is a thing. He was not thinking clearly.
It was not all about the offensive line. But to me,
it doesn't erase what I see in the regular season.
All your points on the schedule are really strong. They
play road games against the Seahawks, the Rams. The Ravens

(29:03):
and the Bills. You could argue that. And the ones
in the division with the Broncos and the Chiefs. You
could argue those are among the hardest possible games in
the NFL this year. It's a brutal schedule. So just
to be clear, that will be the excuse. That will
be what the studio puts up first. I'm going on schedule.
Not be honest. Be honest. I do believe in McDaniels, though.
I do think Akeem Mesidor is like a sneaky defensive

(29:24):
rookie of the year. I do think they're greater... than
the sum of their parts. They do get the tack
on the defense. Like they're just well coached. I'm hoping
you're right that Minter leaving doesn't kill him. And then
I just look at Harbaugh. Like they have won 11
games the last two years. They found a way in
in five of his six years as an NFL head coach,
he's won 11 games. That's like a big number. That's not,
it's not sneaking over the number. So I, that's in

(29:48):
year three of this kind of operation. I just, I
just think all of these AFC West teams are really good.
I I'm relatively high on your chiefs too. And, It's
hard for me to not see them all winning double-digit games,
even if, though, mathematically, that's going to be tough to do.

Speaker 2 (30:03):
I mean, hell, the NFC West last year had three
teams win 12. So it certainly, you know what I mean,
can happen. All right, before I do my next over,
or my next pick, I should say, I want to
give you a compliment. And this is something I have
found I struggle with sometimes. So former Jags running back,

(30:23):
now Saints running back, Travis Achan. who forever we thought
was Travis Etienne. He was called Etienne or Etienne, and
then he, in a very lightly watched press conference, told America, no,
my name is Etienne, as in like Devin Etienne. You

(30:43):
have respected the man, his family, and his actual name
and called him the right name. I find myself struggling
with it, not because I don't know it, But because
there are certain improperly pronounced names that America is so
convinced is the proper pronunciation that I fear if I

(31:08):
start calling him on TV, Travis H. And the audience
is going to be like this idiot. He thinks it's
the Dolphins guy. He's confused. But you don't care. You're like,
you know what? Right is right. And so I give
you credit.

Speaker 1 (31:22):
Maybe that just speaks to the level of confidence we
have in our respective audiences.

Speaker 2 (31:27):
You know what? Maybe that's it. All right.

Speaker 1 (31:31):
I went with like Etienne for a little while. I
didn't hear that it was just Etienne. I was like, oh, thanks.
That actually takes the pressure off that it's just Etienne.

Speaker 2 (31:38):
Well, maybe I could be wrong.

Speaker 1 (31:38):
I was trying to do something. No, no, you're right.
I heard him in a subsequent interview on NFL Network
be like, no, it's just Etienne, just like Devin.

Speaker 2 (31:45):
Just like Devin. It's like, okay, cool. All right. I've
waited long enough. Kansas City Chiefs over 10 and a half.

Speaker 1 (31:52):
Yeah, if I had to pick them, that is where
I'd go to. But I would not have taken them
in my top draft. So make the case. I mean,
this is, you know, you're playing to type here, going anti-chargers, pro-chiefs, back-to-back.

Speaker 2 (32:06):
But I'll allow it. That's fine. You're right. I am
playing to type in that regard. Here's the argument for it. Now,
you know what? Let me say my biggest concern about
the Chiefs. I think the biggest misnomer about the Chiefs
going into the draft was ever that they were going
to go all in on the offensive line. The Chiefs

(32:29):
offensive line last year was awful, but it was awful
because their left tackle missed nine games. They were on
their fourth string right tackle and their interior offensive line.
I think Trey Smith missed a quarter of the season.
The Chiefs have a first-round picket left tackle, a second-round
picket left guard, the best center in the league, one

(32:49):
of the highest-paid right guards in the league, and we'll
see it right tackle. Like, that is a question, but
very few teams have five great offensive linemen.

Speaker 1 (32:57):
I mean, they're not happy at right tackle. They think
they have a problem.

Speaker 2 (33:01):
No, that's what I'm saying. I agree.

Speaker 1 (33:02):
No, no, no.

Speaker 2 (33:03):
That's what I'm saying. They have, yeah, question marks maybe
being kind, but my point is, four of their five
offensive line spots they feel really good about with an
asterisk of, I don't know what the hell is going
on with Josh Simmons. And they don't have, like, he
just has to be available in there. If he is,
this team's going to be excellent. They have not had

(33:25):
a legitimate running threat since the first season 12 games
of my home's career with Kareem hunt. Now Pacheco was
nice as a rookie, but it was more like, Hey,
look at this seventh round pick. That is a legitimate
NFL running back, but not someone you had to account for.
One of the reasons the offense died last year, was

(33:47):
because the teams, no matter what look we were in,
no matter what formation, they're like, you're not running. And
if you are, we don't care. And that clouded everything
for Patrick. So that will be better with Kenneth Walker.
I think that last season they had the worst pass
rush they've had in Mahomes' career. They spent three, the

(34:09):
sixth pick, the 29th pick, and the 40th pick on
things that should help that. Man, sure, Delane, everyone's number
one corner in the draft. Peter Woods who was by
some of the mock draft folks a year before this
year's draft was considered a top five pick potentially and
then he kind of took the year off at Clemson
and there's our Mason Thomas kid who's been awesome at

(34:29):
least in the preseason so they address that there the
secondary is super young but aside from Herbert all of
the good quarterbacks that they face are week 10 or
later they face them kind of in a row they
play it's like Josh and Stafford, and Drake, and I
think Herbert a second time, and one other really good quarterback.
So that's when the young defense will have had time

(34:52):
to learn Spaggs' scheme, kind of mature a little bit
like they did in 2022 when they had a super
young secondary and all they did was win the Super Bowl.
So there's all of that. And then there is the
fact that I think last year with Rasheed Rice suspended
and Xavier Worthy injured and Kelsey being on the downslope,

(35:13):
With all of that, at the midway point of this
last season, not two years ago, not three years ago,
after week eight of last year, the Kansas City Chiefs
were the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and Patrick
Mahomes was the huge favorite to be league MVP. It
then all fell apart. Mahomes was terrible in the six

(35:36):
games before he got hurt. The Chiefs were one in five, whatever,
before he got hurt. Eight weeks of last season, just
so everybody knows, Mahomes had 21 touchdowns, Four turnovers, a
103 rating, was averaging 300, I'm sorry, 297 yards per game,

(35:58):
and was the favorite to win league MVP. He then
played poorly for a month and a half. I think
he'll be fine. I think the Chiefs will be fine.
They are going to start the season off beating Denver,
and then they will coast to 4-0 before they have their...
Because they're... Again, I think they lose five games. I
think the... But their next three games are Colts, Dolphins, Raiders,

(36:22):
and then they get the bye. And so then coming
out of the bye, they get the Chargers, and then
the schedule gets really hard. But I think they'll be
5-0 going into that and then go 7-5 the rest
of the way. That's 12 wins.

Speaker 1 (36:35):
I agree with a lot of what you said. Two
things I'll pull out. Number one, Josh Simmons, as you
explain it, maybe as consequential as just about any non
quarterback to who could go to the Superbowl this year of,
of anyone in the AFC. It really is that big
a deal. And, and that's a tricky place to be

(36:58):
based on his precedent in the NFL so far, which
granted is only a year, but there were mysterious circumstances.
There was a lot of talk behind, you know, and
he could be, he could be an all pro or
he could be MIA, which is a big issue. Second,
I know we wave away ACLs now, but I do
want to see what impact that has on Patrick Mahomes

(37:22):
because what I don't want and what I don't think
will happen, I mentioned he's one of the two people
I'm considering to write down as my preseason MVP, him
or Lamar. What I don't want to happen is another
middling statistical year because what are you going to do
for year four of the Patrick Mahomes is actually putting
up average stats in the middle of his prime campaign

(37:44):
and how that kind of impacts how we think of him.
I don't think it's going to happen, but it would
be awkward if it does happen. And at a certain point,
I'd start to believe in how his career arc is
going to go like a little less. Granted, I'm playing
devil's advocate because I think he's going to pull off
something epic this year that reminds everyone who he is,

(38:05):
but it's difficult. He's coming off of an ACL and
he's got an old not an old team. They're actually
quite young overall, but like not an explosive enough team around.

Speaker 2 (38:14):
Yeah. I'm not, I'm not as worried about the career
arc thing as far as how we're going to think
of this era of football. I know that our mutual
friend and a guy who up until a month ago,
I considered, you know, I always said that if I ever,
and you know, I'd say there's, you know, it's not
a 50, 50 chance, but it's better than a, you know, 25%

(38:35):
chance that this happens. if a team ever hires me
to be the president of football operations, that Bill Barnwell
would be my first call to be team general manager. That, though,
changed drastically when I saw him explain how if there

(38:55):
was quarterback of the decade for 2020s, it would easily
be Josh Allen. which is what we call on our show,
an unacceptable opinion. It's just doesn't exist.

Speaker 1 (39:06):
I think I probably have Josh Allen third, to be fair.

Speaker 2 (39:09):
So that's what I said is unacceptable opinion. Yeah, exactly. The,
but I, I'm not worried about Patrick's kind of like
how we're going to view his career until when he's got,
you know, no one of his era has more MVPs
and the other two quarterbacks who are competing with him.

(39:31):
I've been to zero super bowls and he's been to five.

Speaker 1 (39:34):
It's not about that though. Like I it's more, and
I don't want to just get stuck on my homes,
but it's more, is he going to have Dan Marino's career,
which was an awesome career. He's an all time. Great.
And the very, very best of his best. was in
the first five or six years. I don't want that.
And so I went into last year, wow me again, Patrick.
Like do some– That's kind of the point that I

(39:55):
was making. And he started to do it. And he
did it at the beginning of last year. He started
to do it and then it fell apart. And it
fell apart.

Speaker 2 (40:00):
I just– I do– I think that the– as odd
as it sounds, like because he, you know, tore his ACL,
I think that the– I think the difference of the
offseason and that I think the three straight Super Bowls
and then last year or the year before last, pardon me,

(40:21):
of winning the way they did. I mean, they in
going for the three, Pete, they were also the league's
last undefeated team, like winning games ridiculously.

Speaker 1 (40:31):
And then they made the Super Bowl. They made it right.
They should not be punished for making the Super Bowl.

Speaker 2 (40:37):
They went 15 and one when Patrick played and then
made the Super Bowl and then got their teeth kicked in.
And then the next year, Patrick, you know, the whole
team fell apart. I think he's going to be, I
think he is LeBron-esque when it comes to just different
type of cat athletically. And he was like this one.

(41:00):
his recovery from this has been so far out of
schedule the whole time. So I'm not worried about that.
We'll see it though. Week one, Monday night football in
Arrowhead against the Broncos.

Speaker 1 (41:10):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (41:10):
But I think, yeah, I think they win that game
and they get to four and O at the bye,
which makes the over the right play.

Speaker 1 (41:16):
You're, you're, you're making me, you know, you're, you're helping
maybe push me to go in. I think I just,
people love a narrative. My home's MVP this year.

Speaker 2 (41:25):
My home's MVP would be sick. God, it would be sick.

Speaker 1 (41:28):
You know who, uh, I guess can announce, I don't know.
Are we supposed to say it publicly? I, I now
have a vote for the first time. So you can,
you can, you can play, play it up to me.

Speaker 2 (41:38):
Wow. Who they strip.

Speaker 1 (41:41):
I think people get tired of these. I actually heard that. Like,
you know, it's like, man, they don't want the heat.
They're like, we gotta, we gotta, we gotta bunch available.
So what an honor.

Speaker 2 (41:50):
I've been campaigning for an NBA awards vote forever, but
they won't give me one.

Speaker 1 (41:54):
So now I don't, I did.

Speaker 2 (41:56):
I did.

Speaker 1 (41:57):
Push for it. It was a squeaky wheel.

Speaker 2 (41:59):
You deserve one, bro.

Speaker 1 (42:01):
Let's go Browns under five and a half.

Speaker 2 (42:03):
Wow.

Speaker 1 (42:04):
It's all about the defense. They were this bad defense. Yes,
because they were this bad as an overall team last
year with the defense that they had. And people are really,
you know, chewing away the fact that. Jim Schwartz is
not there anymore. And I think they maxed out a
very specific style of uncomplicated defense that usually had kind

(42:27):
of a shelf life. And they replaced Jim Schwartz, who
was furious and had all of his guys there with,
with Mike Rutenberg, who's never coordinated a defense. There's good
players there. I love Jared verse. Like I think, he'll
actually make that trade look respectable. But the rest of
the defense, talent-wise, is just fine. They could be a

(42:48):
below-average defense, and that exposes the quarterback situation. We know
Watson's not good. Shitter is probably not good. He's hoping
to be a bridge quarterback or high-quality backup. And more
than anything, how much do they really... want to win
i was just a little surprised they had a couple

(43:10):
extra wins than the dolphins for instance i know the
schedule we talked about yeah i think it's only good
but the rest of the division schedule is not easy
so i feel like this is a three or four
win team so.

Speaker 2 (43:21):
I think it's only because they get titans raiders jets
giants yes plus they never go winless in the division
Like they always, you know, they play the, I mean,
you could fact check me on that. Maybe I'm wrong,
but it feels like, like I think Burrow like is,
has like a 500 record against the Browns.

Speaker 1 (43:40):
And Monken could be a good head coach. I just
think they're at cross purposes overall as an organization. And
when this gets into like, they're in the mix for
Arch Manning and Dante Moore, like we could be seeing
Taylor and green starting games. I just, I agree.

Speaker 2 (43:57):
I'd be on the same page. I'm now, I ain't
going to stun you because you were saying I was going,
you know, I was very on brand. There is no
team I was more wrong about last year than this team.
I picked them to finish last in the division. I
not so lightly mocked their overwhelmingly arrogant, trash-talking head coach,

(44:22):
and all they did was stick it to me all
year long. I am going over nine and a half.
for the Denver Broncos. This, listen, I get it. They
trailed in 15 games last year. They somehow won 14
games last year. They trailed in 15. The one score
wins thing is crazy. They're going to legitimately miss Jonathan

(44:45):
Brinkley Myers and they're going to miss Jonathan Cooper. Jonathan
Brinkley Myers, they knew they weren't going to have Jonathan Cooper.
They didn't. I get that piece of it. However, they
have a great offensive line. They, I begrudgingly must admit,
they have a very good coach. They have one of
the best home field advantages in the sport. And they're

(45:05):
another one of these that, like my Jags, they can
go minus four wins from last year and hit the over.
And I don't look at the Chargers as good as
other people do. So that makes, at least in my eye,
the schedule not quite as good. grueling as it is
for some. I just think this is a 10-11 win team.

(45:30):
I like the addition of Waddle if he's healthy, and
I don't think they'll be as good as they were
last year, and they won't be as fortunate in those
one-score games, and Bo Nix you know, does have to
be better other than just late when they're trailing, but
great home field, good head coach, awesome offensive line, really

(45:50):
good defense, even if it's not quite as good as
last year, that should be enough, enough for 10 wins
and back in the playoffs. So I'm over for Denver.

Speaker 1 (45:59):
I'm over too. And I I'm over on a lot
of these AFC teams and I did balance it out.
I I've done in just writing it down, both, both conferences,
we're going to have Dave Damoshek on, to do the NFC,
and I went over on the Broncos. I'm with you.
Even the arguments against them made by myself feel intangible

(46:19):
and searching for something. It's just like, oh, the team
that you expect that has everyone back and got close,
it usually doesn't work out the same the next year,
but that's fine. I think they could be an 11-win
wildcard team or a 10-win wildcard team, and you win,
you're over. They're too good in terms of their line
play on both sides of the ball to go against.
I'm going to go Bills over 10 and a half. The,

(46:40):
the schedule goes from.

Speaker 2 (46:43):
31st.

Speaker 1 (46:44):
This was a little underrated last year. It's like, yeah,
the Patriots had the easiest schedule of all time. The
bills have the second easiest schedule last season. And it
goes to a more challenging schedule. FDN Almanac only has
them as I think the 10th hardest schedule on paper.
It looks harder to me. They've won 11 games, six
straight years. Now this is the argument that got us

(47:04):
wrong on the chiefs last year. I think I took
them and sniped them from you. That didn't work out,
but Josh Allen is to use your guy, LeBron, maybe a,
maybe a different NBA superstar would be better. I'm just
trying to think of a guy who's like a walking,
you know, 48, 50 wins. Like he has been a
walking 11 wins. And the biggest X factor here is

(47:27):
Jim Leonard. Jim Leonard, the defensive coordinator is one of,
the most highly thought of rising coaches among coaches of
the last seven, eight years. Like from when he was
at Nebraska, like moving up, like people just believe that
he's the guy and he was blocked by Vance Joseph
in Denver. So he just wasn't going to get that promotion.

(47:50):
But I think there's a chance where he comes in
as a very cool, hot shot defensive coordinator and raises
their talent floor. Because the talent on defense is just eh.
But ultimately, I think 12 is about where I see
this team. I think they're a safer team by far
than the Patriots. And I feel good about over 10
and a half.

Speaker 2 (48:08):
So I also would have been over. I have them
at 11 and it's 10 and a half. So I
wouldn't have, you know, they would have been one of
my later picks. But I agree with you. I am
a little... If I were a Bills fan, here is
the things I'd be concerned about. Was, did Sean McDermott
not get enough credit for what he got out of

(48:30):
that defense in the regular seasons? Like that would be
at least a question I would have.

Speaker 1 (48:35):
And I used to make that case and I'm trying
to make the other side of it. It started to
lose a little traction the last few years, but you're
absolutely right.

Speaker 2 (48:42):
But it also might be the last few years they had,
you know, the talent started diminishing significantly. So that part,
you know, is a concern. Is it a good idea
to let your quarterback pick your head coach and have
him pick his buddy?

Speaker 1 (48:57):
And have one of the offensive line coaches compare? having
him to like the cool substitute teacher yeah the uncle.

Speaker 2 (49:05):
Teacher one of the players like yeah it's like maybe.

Speaker 1 (49:07):
I said substitute teacher yeah um.

Speaker 2 (49:09):
I mean that those are those are legitimate concerns um
i don't know if dj moore if we weren't here's
what i would say if we were stacking up every
team's number one receiver, how many do we list before
we say DJ Moore? So I, now it depends on

(49:31):
what you think, you know, do you think last year
was a blip? It was a trend, whatever it is.
Those are all, to me, very legitimate concerns. The counterpoint is,
to your point, they win 10 games every year, 11
games every year with Josh Allen. Despite the allegations that

(49:56):
Josh Allen has no help, James Cook, you know, I
think won the rushing title last year. That seems good.
They have an awesome, they have an awesome offensive line.
The rushing champ last year, Josh Allen's great. And so, yeah,
I mean, I do think with respect to your Pats,

(50:17):
they are still the class of the AFC East. I
expect them to win the division, to regain their spot
atop the division. And I think they're going to win
11 games. So I agree with you. But if the
total is 10.5 and I am winning 11, it's not
a bet I would make. And I know you're obviously–
we're not gambling on NFL Daily. But it wouldn't have

(50:38):
been one of my picks. But I agree with you directionally.

Speaker 1 (50:42):
Yeah, the issues– to me, would be the secondary in
general in your county on Jim Leonard to make up
for that. I just don't know if they have enough
juice up front to make up for a pretty inexperienced,
slower secondary. And then it would be the offensive line.
I never.
You're worried about the offensive line? Just a little, because
they've played at such a high level, and they're a

(51:02):
good run-blocking group, but sometimes you count on that offensive line,
which has been steady. It's just hard to find offensive
lines that are good year after year after year after year,
and they've had great continuity, but if that was impacted,
and they definitely did not pass pro as well last year,
then suddenly things fall apart a little. But overall... I'm
into it. Okay, we're down to our last two picks each,

(51:23):
and we'll do them quick. We've got to get Nick
out of here. But I wanted to ask more of
an existential question. As you get older, Nick, you're a grandfather.

Speaker 2 (51:30):
I'm a grandfather, yeah. Thank you.

Speaker 1 (51:33):
But you are a younger man than me, I'm assuming.
I know.

Speaker 2 (51:35):
I'm 41.

Speaker 1 (51:37):
Yes, you're much younger. You're much younger. I'm 47.

Speaker 2 (51:40):
You're 47?

Speaker 1 (51:42):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (51:42):
You look great, buddy.

Speaker 1 (51:45):
I just, you know, my daughter started in high school.
I'm just small. That's why I thought you were.

Speaker 2 (51:49):
No, no, but you can't. I can't tell you're short
from sitting down. No, you look great. I would have
thought you were 43.

Speaker 1 (51:56):
Thank you. I mean, yeah.

Speaker 2 (51:57):
Wow. Wow.

Speaker 1 (51:58):
Four years.

Speaker 2 (51:59):
Okay. No.

Speaker 1 (52:01):
As we get older in this, and I think this
was specifically to the AFC this year. And you're aware
of some years, like last year, our over-unders didn't do
so good. We actually only know in our hearts that
we know so much. As you get older, do you
have any struggle as a takesman having any less confidence

(52:23):
that you can predict the future with such confidence when
in your heart you know that none of us really
know what's going to happen? How do you wrestle with that?

Speaker 2 (52:35):
I have more confidence than ever. Every year, I'm just
acquiring more and more information.

Speaker 1 (52:42):
But to quote one of my favorite tennis players, Naomi Osaka,
the results aren't always resulting for you.

Speaker 2 (52:50):
Naomi has given some great interviews. She did the Iverson
tribute today or yesterday. All right, so listen. This is
a fair question. It's a real question. Let me answer
it as a professional takes man. And I like that. I,
you know, people, when I was, I just did, I
just traveled with my wife in Europe for two weeks.

(53:11):
And when people would ask me what I do for
a living, I would say, I'm one of those guys
that argues about sports on TV. Um, but, uh, and
I respect the audience's intelligence enough to know the difference
between when I go on the air and I say,

(53:32):
what I very rarely do reporting, but I occasionally do
some actual reporting of stuff that I know. And I
a little more often do in what I would call
informed opinions about things that have happened that were, you know,
where I'm not, you know, reporting things, but I have,

(53:55):
I have, I know stuff and I'm giving foreign opinion.
I expect the audience to, to recognize if I am
talking about things that have already occurred with real conviction
it is because I know what I am saying is
true I also expect the audience to know that if

(54:18):
I am talking about things that have not yet occurred
with real conviction, we're all guessing. Pardon me, sorry.

Speaker 1 (54:27):
It's a good answer.

Speaker 2 (54:28):
You know what, like it is, I spend a lot
of time prepping and I do gamble. And so I
put my money where my mouth is, do these things.
But to your point, it's things that have not yet occurred.
So when people are like, oh my God, My last

(54:49):
few years, my NFC Super Bowl picks have just been...
I picked the Bears. Not last year, bro.

Speaker 1 (54:57):
No, I know.

Speaker 2 (54:58):
And then last year, I picked the Bucs. I've picked
teams that don't even make the playoffs. I guess last year,
I picked also the Chiefs. They didn't make playoffs either.
People were like, oh, this guy. And it's like, man,
we're predicting the future is what we're doing. We're just
doing it as well as we can. And so, yeah,
I'm not... I'm not worried about it.

Speaker 1 (55:18):
I think part of it is, is you believe in
your picks. Now you must believe in some more than others,
but you're excellent at expressing true belief in your picks.
And I found, and I don't want to project as
I get older and I'm looking at this as the
off season goes along and I have a daily just
football show. It's like, I'm ultimately at some point presenting

(55:41):
both sides and thinking about it both on both sides
and And especially with this AFC, which seems extremely jumbled
to me, I can see both sides for everyone. And
so at the end of the day, when we get
to this point, I feel like I feel a little
less strong than I used to about what's going to happen.
I don't know if that makes me more.

Speaker 2 (56:00):
No, I think that makes you, you know, wise and mature.
It would probably make you not my number one pick
for like first take host.

Speaker 1 (56:14):
But you know, you, you work to the show you're on.
Then suddenly, that's right. Suddenly I'm Skip Bayless circa 2005.

Speaker 2 (56:24):
Right. You could do it. All right. All right. Last pick.

Speaker 1 (56:27):
Let's just do one more pick each. Cause that'll actually
give us an odd number of, of teams. We'll have
seven each and that way we'll each end up as
a winner or a loser.

Speaker 2 (56:35):
I like, I know, by the way, I just got
to tell you this, buddy. You made that exact same
math error last year, the exact same one, that we
need to pick an odd number of teams. That way,
they'll definitely be a winner or a loser. But that's
not how it works. What would need to happen is
you and I would need to pick a different number
of teams, and then it would be percentage. But it

(56:57):
doesn't matter. I'm going under on your New England Patriots.
And barely. I think they're going to win 10 games.
But I think it's more likely they win nine than
they win 11. And so that's why I'm going under
and because the 10 wins would be an under. So that's,
you know, that's fine.

Speaker 1 (57:19):
I am, I do.

Speaker 2 (57:21):
Think that the schedule upgrade, the upgrade in difficulty is
significant on the schedule. Everybody knows that. Last year was
the easiest schedule this century in the NFL since the
99 Rams. So that is something. I am at least
slightly concerned about the offensive line. So that is something.

(57:45):
You and I both didn't love the Will Campbell pick
from the moment it happened, and I haven't loved him
yet as a pro. So there's that. I went going
into the playoffs, my confidence level that Drake May was
going to be a perennial top five quarterback over the

(58:06):
next decade was at like, 8.8 out of 10. Like
I was like, just pencil them in. Coming out of
the playoffs, it's at a 7.8 out of 10. Not
a huge hit, but there was enough of a holy
moly that it concerned me a bit. All of that,

(58:26):
plus the Super Bowl hangover, you know, I just think
is enough to take a team that won... that you
guys win 14, 14 games down to 10, which would
be an under. So I'll say under for the past.

Speaker 1 (58:39):
Yeah, I struggled with them. I don't want to go
on the record because I don't want to be rooting
against them. But I don't feel strong. That feels like
the right number, and 10 feels about right. Their route
is really early 2010s Patriots. I'm not putting Drigme at
that level, but I do think their way to get
to 11 or 12 is top three offense and situational

(59:00):
defense with a coach that's pretty good at game management.
And you just win some high scoring games by making
enough defensive stops. And I think. there is a route
to doing that. My biggest question is will Campbell related?
Cause you reportedly had a good camp and there was
a chance that their offensive line is significantly better with
Elijah Vera Tucker. And if Campbell improves, and if that

(59:22):
happens with the wide receivers, like they are potentially a
top three offense. And then, you know, then it's easy
to win some games.

Speaker 2 (59:29):
So real quick, before you do your final pick, can
I suggest the tiebreaker? Sure. You and I went oppo
on the Chargers, right?

Speaker 1 (59:40):
We did.

Speaker 2 (59:40):
That was the team that I went under and you
said you're going to use one of your picks as
an over, right?

Speaker 1 (59:46):
If we tie the Chargers.

Speaker 2 (59:47):
If we tie whoever gets the Chargers thing right wins.

Speaker 1 (59:50):
So that's like, that's counting like two and a half times.
Cause you know, it's going to give us. Yeah, exactly.

Speaker 2 (59:56):
Yeah. But I mean, that is good.

Speaker 1 (59:57):
A little more juice for you to root against.

Speaker 2 (01:00:00):
I don't listen.

Speaker 1 (01:00:01):
The most beleaguered misunderstood fan base in the NFL. Cause there,
there are few, but they're mighty. I don't know if
you see the engagement on chargers posts are great. If
you come after it, like they, they come after you.
And when you're there, it's got a lot of fans.
It's when you're there and it is like, I went
to the Eagles chargers last year. it's a bummer that,

(01:00:22):
you know, it's two thirds Eagles, but the ones that
are there are loud. And I respect the hell out
of like that. They're doing it.

Speaker 2 (01:00:28):
So there you go. All right. What's your last pick?

Speaker 1 (01:00:33):
I I'll just go by my list. Cause you took
chiefs over from me. It seems mean to go Raiders under,
but I do believe in that. I think the entire
AFC South is a little better. I'm going Colts over
seven and a half. The schedule's easier on paper. You're
counting on Daniel Jones, period, especially Daniel Jones coming off
a torn Achilles. That's easily the biggest problem here. But

(01:00:53):
Shane Steichen has yet to lose 10 games in a season.
He's topped it three in a row. I'm intrigued what
Lou Anarumo is going to do with this defense. It's
a tough defense, like what he asked them to do
without veteran players. At least going into the season, they're
healthier and I think could be able to have some
pop-up games where Lube just gives teams a lot of problems.

(01:01:15):
And you were talking about MVP halfway through the season.
Another option, other than Patrick Mahomes, was Daniel Jones. They
had one of the greatest offenses in NFL history through
Week 10. It fell apart, but I only need to
get to eight wins here. I think they're better than that.

Speaker 2 (01:01:29):
So here is... Listen, I have them going 7-10, so
I don't have a big disagreement. I do wonder... First
three weeks, Ravens at Chiefs home for Texans. Oof.

Speaker 1 (01:01:45):
I wish I knew that.

Speaker 2 (01:01:46):
Does an 0-3 start, are we all of a sudden
saying the words interim head coach Lou Anarumo?

Speaker 1 (01:01:54):
I hope not. And I'm glad you pointed that out
because I even wrote it down. That for a team
I'm taking an over on, there's a real chance they're
drafting top three. three to five, and it all blows
up because like organizationally, I could see them having the
messiest of seasons and then being absolutely terrible, partly because

(01:02:15):
of things like that. Ultimately, I think their mean season
is eight or nine wins.

Speaker 2 (01:02:20):
But just to be clear, there is no chance they're
drafting three or five.

Speaker 1 (01:02:25):
Well, that's a good point. Because they're doing everything.

Speaker 2 (01:02:27):
They gave that pick away. Because they went all in
on Sauce Gardner because they were like, Daniel Jones, you're
going to do it. In one of the most reckless
trades in the last 10 years in the NFL, a
mid-season two first round pick trade when Daniel Jones was
not only your quarterback, but was not signed to an extension.

(01:02:50):
That was, and so, yeah, they need to, they need
to be good. Maybe you'll be right, but I just hate,
I know in theory people, because one of the things people,
when the NFL makes a big deal out of schedule release,
a hipster thing to say is like, guys, we've known
who they're playing for years, 14 of the games, and

(01:03:15):
we've known who they're the all 17 for months. well
all the order does matter like it does for a
team that is in my at least for me a
team that you could see going either way having the
year start that tough is so much worse than you
get off to a good start you're feeling good and

(01:03:36):
those games are spread out so that's my concern um but.

Speaker 1 (01:03:40):
It's a persuasive argument it's a persuasive argument But.

Speaker 2 (01:03:44):
OK, so we did everything. The only teams we did
not discuss were the Raiders and the Dolphins. And that
sounds right to me.

Speaker 1 (01:03:54):
Is that true? That's wild. Yeah, I would go. I
would go over. I think I'm almost an auto over
on three and a half wins for any team. I
might even draft the Cardinals tomorrow. I don't think damage
is listening to this show. I might even draft the Cardinals.

Speaker 2 (01:04:05):
That's a bold play, my friend.

Speaker 1 (01:04:09):
Nick Wright. Go ahead.

Speaker 2 (01:04:10):
Sorry. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:04:11):
What's right with Nick Wright. He is an excellent podcaster.
Excellent on YouTube. What you're going, you're going more often
this season. I, you.

Speaker 2 (01:04:20):
Know, I don't know. I, the maybe I think so. I,
when I was on vacation, I had fill in hosts.
So I was like, wow, this is like a real business.
I own the thing. So it kind of, I'm kind
of incentivized to do as much as possible. I, we
also though, if I may plug it just for a moment, um,
Next week will be our 500th episode. And we are,

(01:04:42):
I think like three, like 3,200 people on YouTube away
from being at a quarter of a million subscribers on YouTube. Um,
So if people want to subscribe on YouTube, iTunes or Spotify. And,
you know, I think it's a good podcast.

Speaker 1 (01:04:57):
It is not.

Speaker 2 (01:04:58):
I don't think it's a great podcast yet. The TV show,
I think, is a great TV show in the medium.
And I hope people check it out. And I can't
believe we're at football season.

Speaker 1 (01:05:10):
I'm so happy that we're there. And, yeah, you took
the words out of my mouth. He told everyone he
saw in Europe he. He's a man on TV that
argues about sports. For my money, there's no one better
at doing it. Nick Wright, thank you very much. Play
that music, and then I'll tell you what we're coming
up this week. We got a lot going on. We
got Brett Coleman coming up on the show later this

(01:05:30):
week doing some making the lead picks. We have our
final Super Bowl predictions. That's with Patrick Claibon and Jordan Roderick.
But you will hear from me next with Dave Damaschek
doing our NFC over-unders. There's a few that I think
are heaters there. We'll see you then.