February 4, 2026 • 48 mins
JJ and Kitchen are live from Radio Row in San Francisco, talking NFL news, previewing Super Bowl LX from New England’s point of view, and chatting with a very special guest.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
You're about to listen to a special edition of the
Late Round Fantasy Football Show, which was recorded at Radio
Row prior to this year's Super Bowl. If you want
to watch it, you can find it on YouTube as
well YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF. The
format is a little bit different than usual, but we
hope that you still get a lot from listening to
the show. Next week we'll be back in our normal schedule,
(00:20):
but for now, we hope you enjoy.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Welcome in. Welcome In. It's the Late Round Fantasy Football Show,
live from Radio Row.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Here at the super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Jju and I both survived and we are here right now.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Barely got a foot of snow in Charlotte. Literally literally
you know that. I said that we got a foot
of snow on Twitter. Yeah, and someone responded and they asked,
Grock if Charlotte got a foot of snow?
Speaker 4 (00:59):
Is this true?
Speaker 3 (01:00):
As if I'm lying?
Speaker 5 (01:01):
Now?
Speaker 1 (01:01):
We got to photous know, but fortunately I was able
to move my flight a little bit later on Monday.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
Yeah, and I made it out here. I mean, I
am working on four hours of sleep right.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Now, I know, but we're going to power through. We've
got a fun show today. We'll also be here tomorrow
as well, and we're even doing some little player interviews.
So make sure that you are continuing to like, subscribe, listen,
comment wherever you will. And also big news if you
missed it in the Friday newsletter, which by the way,
go sign up a late Round dot com. We've got
(01:32):
lots of good stuff coming in the newsletter. But if
you missed it, the pre order for the Prospect Guide
now available. So all your rookies, all your year two
players and JJ this year, we have something new we do.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
We are doing tight end profiles.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
Yeah, and not just the scores, because the scores have
been there in the past. The other thing too is
that like in the past, I've had the tight end
model and that model.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
You know, it's not been bad or anything, but it
needs a little bit of work.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
And so I'm working with grand and Goadula to make
sure that things are looking good. And so he is
going to be writing a lot of those profiles.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
For tight ends.
Speaker 5 (02:10):
You know.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
Obviously I'm going to obviously be working with him on
the tight end profiles.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
But he's not gone rogue on tight ends.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
Yeah, yeah, I'm not.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
I'm not ignoring the position I just need help because
there's a lot of pages in that prospect guide. I
mean usually we're looking at like one hundred and fifty
plus pages in this thing. Yeah, and so you're going
to get the running back profiles, the wide receiver profiles,
the tight end profiles, and then the year two stuff
is still going to be in there with the running
backs and the wide receivers for year two. And I
need to get on it. I need to start working
(02:37):
on that thing more. I've been working on it, just
not enough.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
I mean listen, when you're invited by the fine folks
at the you know iHeart in the NFL to come
to priority shift the Super Bowl week, then you say, okay,
I'm to go, you know, yeah, we'll push it back
a few days later. So yeah, looking forward to that.
I know a lot of people out there are anxious
to see what this rookie class is coming, and including myself.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
Yeah, to be fair, I've I've done nearly enough research
yet on this class to have takes right now.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
So yeah, I mean like it's it's a little bit later,
but also.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
We did give ourselves an extra week at launch, so
it's middle of March as opposed to kind of like
more towards the beginning of March for the release of
the Prospect.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
All right, and with that, let's get on to today's news.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Today's fantasy news.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
All right, JJ, we've got today's news. First of all.
First of all, we are here on that iHeartRadio set,
the NFL podcast Network set. We made it like we
just talked about the weather. I walked around all day yesterday.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
I left you.
Speaker 2 (03:42):
Stranded, yeah, by myself in San Francisco, and and I
miss you. But I want to know, are you feeling
any different now about the whole weather thing, because I
feel like I asked the weather question about like weather
games and stuff, and then we've had like bad weather.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
Nashville. I hate all weather right now.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
Yes, I mean, I feel worse for my wife, who
I left to come here, and she's at home with
my seven and three year old while they're off school.
And I'm sitting here in front of this fantastic crowd
of people. It's awesome living the dream, you know, just
doing a show and talking talking ball and I'm gonna
talk to some players and such, and so thank you
(04:24):
to my wife for being at home with the children.
But yeah, I mean like coming here to San Francisco.
To me, this is an ideal climate. Yeah, right, so
you get like low sixties during the day, it's always sunny,
all that kind of stuff, and it's a it's a
very good climate when you just got a foot of snow.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
And you were in you know, twenty degree weather, Yeah
for sure.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
All right, let's talk about some of the today's news,
and most of the news right now is is centered
around coaching. Lots of lots of coaching changes, people accepting offers,
people backing out of offers, people crying about offers. In
a late round discord today, noted Giants fan Deep just
he was in a state of disbelief because Matt Naggy yeah,
(05:07):
was announced the offensive coordinator for the New York Giants.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
Look, I gotta watch what I say here.
Speaker 4 (05:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (05:12):
Yeah, there's a lot of people that are part of
the league around us right now. Okay, Look, it's it's
an uninspiring higher, that's the way that I would put it.
Speaker 3 (05:21):
Yeah, it's a.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
Higher that I don't think Giants fans are excited about.
And I think there's reason to not be overly bullish
and excited about. I think when you have a quarterback
like Jackson Dart. You're gonna want to pair him with
sort of an up and coming, younger coordinator to kind
of mesh with an older head coach who understands the
leadership side of things, which is what you have in
John Harbaugh. And if you look at the data with
(05:44):
Matt Naggy, the last three years of him in Kansas City,
and you know, obviously he took over for Eric the
Enemy and now the enemy's back as OCA.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
They've just been flip flopping.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
But over the last three year here, let me, let
me just read what happened with Eric the Enemy in
twenty twenty two.
Speaker 3 (05:59):
A lot of people are gonna hear this and they're
gonna think.
Speaker 1 (06:01):
Oh, well they had Tyreek Hill that No, Tyreek Hill
was already in Miami at this point. So this is
the final season with Eric Bienemy as offensive coordinator for
Kansas City. And in that season they had a total
EPA of two.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
Hundred and one point four.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
Their expected points added per play was point one point nine. Okay,
and so then their success rate on offense was over
fifty percent. Their rushing EPA per play was only minus
point zero one. I know that's that's below zero, but
rushing is less efficient than passing, which is why EPA
numbers are below zero. Like that, for rushing, the rushing
success rate was forty five percent, their pass rate over
(06:38):
expected was A was eleven percent over expected. So overall
that offense was was cooking with Eric enemy that final year,
and then Matt Naggy takes over. Okay, twenty twenty three,
twenty twenty four, and twenty twenty five, twenty twenty three
we see him take over, and EPA per play goes
from point one to nine to point zero two, and
in the next two years with Matt Naggy point zero seven,
(06:59):
point zero three. Okay, success rate overall success rate for
the offense fifty point four percent with Eric the enemy,
then it goes to forty.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
Four percent, forty eight percent, forty five percent.
Speaker 1 (07:08):
So essentially, what I'm getting at is, every single year
post Eric Bienemy, it's with Matt Naggie, it's gone down.
Speaker 3 (07:15):
It's been it's been worse, objectively worse.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
And to me, it's not that I think Mattnaggy's gonna
necessarily fail. It's just again, it's an uninspiring higher when
you consider what he did with that offense versus a
similar I mean, look, if you look at that twenty
twenty two Chiefs team, it's Juju Smith Schuster and and
marquezvald Is scantling catching passes from Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 3 (07:35):
I mean, it's not a very deep roster whatsoever.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
And now and then and then you look at what
they had even last year, uh and even the year
before that. I don't think there's been enough of a
shift offensively for that team to warrant such differing numbers
from coordinator to coordinator, And that to me is a
red flag for this hire in general. But like I
always say, you know, bottom line, with coaching hires, we
(07:59):
don't know, don't We don't know. We have to be
like we don't know things about projecting player performance in
general and fantasy football. It's even more difficult whenever you're
looking at coaching stuff because there's just so many layers
or so much nuance. We don't know exactly who's influencing what,
et cetera.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
Et cetera.
Speaker 1 (08:14):
But my overall vibe is probably the same vibe that
a lot of Giants fans feel right now. They're just
kind of like, why why can't it just be someone
a little bit.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
I mean, I feel like they they were on cloud
nine because they got Harball as their coach.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
Yeah, and like he was the pick number one, which.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
You know, I do think that the Harbaugh thing though, too.
It's like was it a bad high or no? Was
it like this excellent amazing, you know, like incredible higher.
I don't even know if that's necessarily going to be
the case. You know, it's partially because of what I
just said about coaching. But you know, there's there's a
lot of the data going around about like Mike McCarthy
versus John Harbaugh, and there's not this significant significant difference
(08:53):
between you know, when percentage and how well they performed,
et cetera.
Speaker 3 (08:56):
Et cetera, and people will pooh pooh.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
And I understand why the Mike McCarthy, uh, you know,
or you know, getting getting him to head coach of Steelers, right,
But they're not doing this the complete opposite vibe with
with Harbaugh.
Speaker 3 (09:07):
I'm not saying that I think McCarthy is the better coach.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
I'm just saying that when you when you're compare and
contrast the two, it's not so so significant. I I'm
just of the belief that if you really want to
take a team to the next level, I I'd rather
take chances on leaders and new coaches and kind of
fresh blood into the system instead of recycling coaches who
have already shown that from one regime to another or
one you know, offensive coordinator to another, there's no improvement.
(09:33):
It was actually the opposite with with Matt Naggie, right,
and so you know, I just I think that that
coaching staff in general, it's not as inspiring as I
would want it to be, especially with Jackson Dark, who
I think is one of the best young up and
coming quarterbacks in the league.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
Yeah, it's fantasy, guys. We need we we want the exciting,
the you know, the sexy hire at.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
The admitting that, yeah, maybe it's a blind spot, but
it's you know, it's fun.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Well as far as other If you look the sheet
that we've done in the late round, show like we're
starting to fill in names both on the offensive cornertor
side and the coaching side. You got Clint Kubiak and
Mike Lafleur who are now for the Raiders and the Cardinals.
So all the head coaching spots are filled. Declan Doyle
(10:17):
announces the Ravens offensive coordinator. You've got Sean Mannion with
the Eagles and Davis Webb with Broncos. So we're getting
we're getting set to where the teams are know who
they have.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
There's some really interesting hires in here.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
I mean I think that, you know, if you want
to start with with some of the coaching stuff, I
think the Clint Kubiak hire was was pretty strong just
in general. Obviously, you know we're here in San Francisco,
Seattle is about to play on Sunday.
Speaker 4 (10:42):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
He's been you know, somewhat of an innovator in the
way that I mean.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
He does the things that we want to see offenses
do in today's game, which is get receivers in space,
move them around, lots of play action, lots of lots
of motion at the line. Uh.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
You know, I would argue that he relies a little bit.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
Too much on the run game, especially from like a
password over expected perspective. But I think I think Kubiak
is a is a good higher, like a solid higher.
But again with head coaching highers, it's like we don't
know what kind of leadership. Some some dudes are awesome coordinators,
but they don't necessarily translate.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
And that's important.
Speaker 3 (11:17):
Yeah, yeah, of course, of course. And then the lafloor one.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
I mean, if you look at the track record of
offensive coordinators under Sean mcmay, you know, going on in
coaching teams, I mean you have guys like Zach Taylor
and obviously Kevin O'Connell. I mean, there's there's a pretty
decent track record of this.
Speaker 3 (11:32):
H I'm expecting Nate.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
Schielhouse to be more involved there now moving forward, and
you know, he was already a name in this coaching cycle.
I think next year Shieldhouse is going to be somebody
that a lot of teams are looking at as sort
of a you know, one of those young up and
coming dudes who you know, again has been attached to
Sean McVay and if you're attached.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
To he's a sexy hire. When when is this going
to end?
Speaker 2 (11:56):
The Sean McVay stuff, Like, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (11:58):
Like literally anything in touches just end up turning to
gold at least like perspective of what of what teams
are are doing.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
We used to have the Bill Belichick tree, you know.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
Yeah, so Sean Mcmahanah, maybe maybe he'll be a first
bout Hall of Famer.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Yeah, okay, when the Saints go marching out, Because you
talked about McCarthy, he thought he may had some guys.
Scott Tolzen, though, is not going to be the offensive corner.
Speaker 3 (12:22):
He was the passing game.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
Coordinator there for the Saints not going and neither is
Chase has lit the tight ends coach for the Saints.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
Yeah, it's kind of interesting because both of those guys
would have been would have gotten promotions.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
Yeah, essentially, you know, I don't know, you like, we've
seen this a little bit, like Davis.
Speaker 1 (12:38):
Webb was an example of this, where you know, the
fire offense coordinator, you just kind of assume that there's
a promotion coming, even though Davis Webb was someone that
was getting a lot of love elsewhere throughout the league,
in around the league. But you know, with with this,
these guys, uh, you know, maybe some sort of promotions coming,
maybe something's going on. But I think that they just
(12:58):
like the situation and it might speak to Tyler Shuck.
Do you think like it could it could mean that
they see they believe in him, Yeah, like they see something. Yeah,
and they look at Pittsburgh and they're like, well they're
in and well they don't even have a quarterback right now,
but if they, if they are, you know, approaching and
trying to get Aaron Rodgers, we don't want to be
in quarterback purgatory.
Speaker 3 (13:18):
We would rather we're already getting looks right.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
Now based on what Tyler Schuck did last year and
what this offense kind of morphed into last year. And
that was without mind you, without Rashichi he gets traded
mid season. Chris Olave stepped up and was this the
target hog that we know that he is. That was
an offense that lacked legit weapons. Yeah, uh, and they
were still at least like getting it done to a degree.
(13:40):
And I thought Tyler, I mean Tyler Schuck was shooting
up offensive Rookie of the Year, uh you know, uh
leader boards for from a betting perspective, you know, with
his play down the stretch. So I think it might
speak to that a little bit more like if you
got Tyler Shuck in the third round of your rookie
Super Flights draft last year, that's a good Yeah, that's
(14:00):
a really really good value.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
He was going, I mean, he was going late to
the late round quarterback. He was going late, not even
drafted in a lot of leagues then and being later
on in there. As far as the Pittsburgh side, though,
it might be the opposite where they see Taylor Shuck
and they're like, yes, look, I've.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
Been warming up to the Mike McCarthy hire a little
bit more.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
I will say, I do think that it's not a
good signal, right, Yeah, these guys are not I'm good joining, Yeah,
where they're like, no, we'd rather be with because there's
a chance that Tyler Shuck isn't him right, And they're like, no,
I'd rather be here in New Orleans on a team
that's clearly not there are yet you know, we wouldn't
say that they're there.
Speaker 3 (14:40):
So yeah, maybe there's a little.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
Bit of a of an issue with how you know
McCarthy is running that It could be a play calling
thing too, you know, there could be something that going on.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
We'll see, we'll see.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
I mean, the Steelers have filled out that coaching staff
for the most part aside from what's kind of going
on on offense, and we'll see what happens. But you know,
I don't want to read too too much into it. Yeah,
but I don't think you can take it as.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
A good thing.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
Well, here is a good thing in Pittsburgh, and that
is the NFL Draft that's coming you.
Speaker 3 (15:08):
That's true.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
You saw the announcements. You're still saying no to going, buddy.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
We just talked about the prospect guy. I know, okay,
we have we know it's in Pittsburgh, though it's in
your backyard here here. Well, we'll ask, we'll ask listeners.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
Would you guys rather have me go and enjoy a
night of the draft okay and be a day late
with the delivery of this draft guy for the rookie
ranks or beyond time.
Speaker 3 (15:31):
And I think people will say, just be on time. Selfish.
Speaker 1 (15:35):
You are my fantasy analyst. I don't care how good
of a time you have up in your hometown.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
In Pittsburgh's Thursday day one could be fun, But it
does look like it's gonna be fun. You're you're Pittsburgh Nestes.
It like when you see that picture and everything does
it like it?
Speaker 3 (15:48):
At least you don't.
Speaker 1 (15:49):
You don't lose any part of it when you when
you leave Pittsburgh. It's still always a part of the kitchen.
It's always a part.
Speaker 3 (15:53):
Of today's data.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
All right, we're here with today's data, and you've got
some super Bowl spreads for us JJ.
Speaker 3 (16:02):
Yeah, Look, there's.
Speaker 1 (16:03):
Not that much depth here per se, but I did
I was curious to see if there's any sort of
like similar games that have happened historically in the Super Bowl. Obviously,
this is sixty so there's not like a massive, massive
sample size, but we do have, you know, spread data
that dates back to basically all of them, I think
the only only super Bowl one we didn't have a total,
(16:25):
And so I looked back at all of that and
I found eight different super Bowls that had a spread
that was within a half a point of the one
that we're about to watch. And we've seen five kind
of over the last you know, since that that Ravens
forty nine. I guess you can go to the Saints
and Colts whenever the Saints beat the Colts in that
Super Bowl back in the mid two thousands, but there
(16:48):
have been a handful of games that have been within
a half point of the one that we're about the watch.
And what I found kind of interesting and this is, look,
this is not predictive, you guys, right, Okay, I need
to be clear.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
This is not a more historical This is more just like.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
An interesting thing to kind of look at, because I
think that most people are entering the Super Bowl and
they're like, Seattle's the better team, Seattle has the edge.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
We got to give it to Seattle.
Speaker 1 (17:10):
But we were saying and running with the same narratives
for a lot of these other teams that were four
and a half point favorites.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
And they did not win.
Speaker 1 (17:18):
The only team over the last five where the spread
has been within.
Speaker 3 (17:25):
Half a point of what the spread is for this one,
which is minus four and a half.
Speaker 1 (17:28):
Four of the five teams the underdog has won, you
get the Eagles over the Patriots. You have the Broncos
over the Panthers, you have the Ravens over the forty
nine ers, and the Saints over the Colts. The only
one that wasn't was the Bengals against the Rams, where
that was tight.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
You know, that was a.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
Relatively tight game where the Bengals still beat the spread
in that game.
Speaker 3 (17:48):
So I don't know, man.
Speaker 1 (17:49):
You know, we're gonna talk about what the Patriots are
likely to do on offense, you know what the Seahawks
are likely to do on offense, and you know we
can kind of see how this game unfolds, but I'm
not gonna be shocked based on what we've seen historically
and just some of the research I've done. But this
game is a little bit closer than people then.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
Yeah, And we'll be talking about these games and we'll
be talking about each team. So we're covering the Patriots today,
We're covering the Seahawks tomorrow. So with that being said,
let's get on to the main event.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
It's the late round, main event, all.
Speaker 2 (18:26):
Right, we're talking about the New England side of this
Super Bowl LX matchup, JJY, And so these are some
key call outs that you've kind of created for New England.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
Yeah, so I want to approach this from the perspective
of like what I think New England's going to do
and how successful they might be in doing those things.
And this is based off of matchup and based off
of what they do well.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
So I just have a ton of notes. I'm going
to go through them.
Speaker 1 (18:50):
This is what I think will happen on the New
England side of the ball when they have the ball
and when.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
They're on offense.
Speaker 1 (18:55):
Okay, so first off, they're over three point underdogs for
just the second time this year, which kind of crazy.
Speaker 3 (19:00):
Yeah, everyone's made a really big deal about the schedule, and.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
Here I am once again making a big deal in
the schedule. But I've been on records saying that you
can still see how good a team is based on
how they perform against bad teams too, And New England's
had a great point differential, et cetera, et cetera. Like
they've done what they needed to do and more, and
analytics agree that they're a good team. Like, I think
New England representing the AFC is totally fine during a
year where there are weaker AFC teams, you know.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
So I just want to get that out of the way.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
But they are over three point underdogs versus the second
time this year. You know, if you look at overall
pass rate for New England, that's not going to be
super super helpful because they've been favored in a lot
of games they played weaker opponents. Obviously, when that's the case,
game script is in their favor, they're going to.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
Run the ball a little bit more.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
But Kitchen, they ranked top five in the NFL this
year and pass right over expected. They saw over three
more pass temps per game in games where they were
underdogs this year, So I do expect them to have
a more pass heavy approach. That's not just because of
the way games script might go in the fact that
they're underdogs here, but Seattle has by far the best
(20:06):
EPA per rush defense in the NFL. They've been the
best at stopping the run across the league. They're their
top and rushing yards over expected per attempt allowed. They've
been so good in the front at stopping these opposing
running backs. And if you look at this on a
game by game basis, only Washington in Week nine had
a greater than fifty percent success rate on the ground
(20:27):
against Seattle, which is bonkers. Only five teams finished with
a positive rushing yards over expected against Seattle.
Speaker 3 (20:35):
Only one team finished with a positive EPA per rush
against them.
Speaker 1 (20:37):
I mean, it's crazy, it's crazy how good the Seattle
defense has been against the run. So what that means is,
so Seattle, they do have a good pass defense, they're
they're the eighth best pass defense by EPA per drop
back loud, but they're just so good against the run.
When you combine that with New England potentially trailing Slash
(20:59):
being in this kind of game script and the fact
that they have a high pass rate over expected. To
begin with pass rate over expected for those you know,
because we throw this around all the time. Password over
expected is looking at gamescript situations and seeing is this
team more pass heavy than than a team typically would
be in this situation? Right, So New England is more
pass heavy, you know, in these situations than other teams
(21:20):
typically would be.
Speaker 3 (21:21):
So this is what I think could happen.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
Drake may might just scramble a lot in this game
because there's gonna be more dropbacks. That means that there's
more opportunities for scrambles and Seattle they also generate pressures
at the fourth highest rate in the league, despite blitzing
at the fourth lowest rate. So what that means is
they're getting pressure on the quarterback without having to send
a lot of guys, which means they have enough players
in coverage where it's going to be more difficult in
(21:45):
the quarterback to find the open receiver. What happens then
quarterbacks scramble, and that's what's happened against Seattle all year.
Seattle's face the most quarterback scrambles of any team in
football this year. So New England there's sixth in pressure
rate alowed, but only and only Geno Smith, Tyler Shuck
and Cam mood So two rookie quarterbacks, and Geno Smith,
who had the worst season of you know in a
(22:07):
while for for Gino Smith, uh with Vegas. Only those
three quarterbacks were worse in pressure to sack rate than
Drake May this year. So my fear is that Seattle's
going to be able to get to Drake May and
beat that offensive line. Drake May then obviously, yeah.
Speaker 3 (22:26):
Yeah, we've seen that in the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (22:27):
Yeah, but Drake May is going to have to do
something under pressure, and it's not gonna be the easiest
thing in the world to find that open receiver. So
he's gonna scramble. That's what he's done, you know, throughout
the season. So I think that there's a chance that
he sees a lot of rushing yards in this game
and a lot of scrambles. But there's also a chance
that he's still sacked a lot in this game. Right,
So if you're looking at at betting lines and such,
(22:48):
you know, this is not a betting podcast or not.
Speaker 3 (22:52):
I don't get line advice.
Speaker 1 (22:53):
That's just not you know, not what I do, But
I do think that this is a situation where I
think the line was like three and a half seven Seattle.
Speaker 3 (23:01):
I would take the over.
Speaker 1 (23:02):
They've the Patriots have faced four top ten teams in
pressure rate this year. Three of those four teams sacked
Drake May four more times. So that's that's the over
right in that in that kind of situation. So I'm
expecting May to get sacked at least four times in
this game, but also expecting him to maybe run the
ball a lot and potentially, I say potentially is like
(23:25):
a long shot actually lead the Patriots and rushing yards
in this game because Seattle is so good at stopping
the run just naturally and Ramandre Stevenson. I think, I
think there's a chance that Drake May out rushes reminds
as what this is, Okay, I say a chance.
Speaker 3 (23:41):
I don't mean like a fifty to fifty chance.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
Of course, I'm not gonna say, but if the odds
are good enough, you know, if you want to bet
on that, whatever it's I'm not I'm not going down
that path. I'm just giving you guys what I'm seeing
from from a spreadsheet perspective. The other thing that I
think they're gonna do is. I think New England's gonna
throw a lot more underneath. Drake May was arguably the
best deep ball passer in the NFL this past year.
Speaker 3 (24:04):
Okay, but he might not have as much time.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
For those plays to developed because of the pressure rate
and what and the kind of pressure that Seattle can
put on him. And Seattle was top five and two
high safety rate this past year, So Seattle's not They're
they're better at preventing those bigger plays and that's obviously
something that Drake May has really thrived on.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
And this is from Brandon Goadula of Late Round.
Speaker 1 (24:27):
Yeah, he was doing a little bit of research for
this and it was really really good and interesting stat
But in games where teams showed specific safety tendencies, here's
Drake May's adjusted net yards per temporrates. Okay, so single
high when when teams generally showed single high the majority
of the time, he had an eight point five to
two adjusted net yards per tenpary. In a more balanced
(24:48):
situation where it was kind of both too and single
seven point seven to three adjusted net yards pert tempt
when he's faced too high six point zero seven three
games where he's faced the majority of the defense had
two high safeties.
Speaker 3 (25:02):
I think that we're gonna.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
See fewer deep ball passes. He's gonna take his shots
because that's what he does. He's a pretty aggressive thrower,
and he's unbelievable at getting the ball down the field.
But I think we're going to see a little bit
more of a conservative approach through the air from Drake
may in this game. Not just because he's a young
quarterback in the Super Bowl, and that's a big deal inherently,
but the other side of.
Speaker 3 (25:24):
This is just that I think the matchup dictates this.
Speaker 1 (25:27):
And if you look at what Seattle does defensively, they
were thirty first and adjusted target share allowed to wide
receivers this year, which means when teams face Seattle, they
weren't throwing to the wide receivers at a very high rate,
second lowest rate in all football. But Seattle ranked first
and adjusted running back target share allowed, and they were
fifteenth and adjusted tight end target share allowed eleventh and
slot wide receiver target share allowed.
Speaker 3 (25:48):
So what does that tell you?
Speaker 1 (25:49):
Teams are throwing to their running backs so behind the
line of scrimmage or close to the line of scrimmage,
Middle of the field slot receivers, middle of the field
tight ends, and Seattle faced the highest percentage of targets
actually in the NFL behind the.
Speaker 3 (26:01):
Line of scrimmage this season.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
So I would look for New England if we're looking
at this matchup. Okay, I'm not saying that like this
is definitely because maybe they don't like this matchup or
maybe I mean, I'm clearly could be looking at this
wrong too, because.
Speaker 3 (26:13):
I get plenty of stuff wrong.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
But I would look for New England to use their
running backs a lot of receivers in this game. I
would I would look at them to use Stefan Diggs
out of a slot. I would not be shocked if
Diggs sees one of the highest route participation rates of
his season, because you know, we tilted about this during
the fantasy season. How Diggs would see, you know, a
(26:35):
seventy five percent routes share, and then a fifty percent
routes share, and then an eighty percent rout chair. He
was all over the place. I think this could be
a Stephan Diggs game. Like, I think that he could.
Speaker 3 (26:43):
See a lot of looks out of the slot, and.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
Just in general inherently, you know, closer to the line
of scrimmage and being that reliable target for Drake May
and then Hunter Henry in the middle of the field.
I think is a really really intriguing player to watch
because Seattle's.
Speaker 3 (26:56):
Been kind of okay against tight.
Speaker 1 (26:59):
Ends this year, not tacular, and that's something that the
Patriots can do to kind of combat and beat this defense.
So you know, I would look at those three being
Steph Hundiggs in the passing game, Steph Hundiggs, Hunter Henry,
and then I guess you have to say Ramondre Stevens
because Travon Henderson played four snaps in the NFC Championship game.
(27:20):
Now do I think that New England would be smart
to And this is not a bye. I've taken the
l with Ramandre. He dominated the final month of the season.
He made me look like a moron. I get all that,
But I do think that this could like the hypothetical
Traveon Henderson right, It.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
Would be funny too if this was the week that
he went off after we discounted him after last week,
because that's kind of the story of the season.
Speaker 4 (27:44):
Yeah it is.
Speaker 1 (27:45):
Yeah, I mean, like I do think that Ramondre is
more than capable, but Treyvon Henderson objectively has more burst
and can career and generate big, bigger plays.
Speaker 3 (27:53):
Ramondre is a much more complete back right now.
Speaker 1 (27:56):
But I'm saying that Travion, you get him in space
and you allow for.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
Some of that to work and happen.
Speaker 1 (28:02):
I think it can beat it can win against this
defense in the way that Seattle plays.
Speaker 3 (28:06):
So you know, will they do that?
Speaker 1 (28:08):
I don't think that we can, like confidently if we
had like one, like if we had two games of
New England against Seattle and we could just see the
snap rates for Ramandre Stevenson and Travion, then I could
more confidently say this is the way that you know
we're gonna fel about Trayvon Henderson. I think the matchup
is there though, for receiving back to do some and
and do some damage against the Seattle defense, just based
(28:28):
on the fact that they were not great.
Speaker 3 (28:31):
Limiting underneath throws.
Speaker 1 (28:33):
And that's probably the way that this offense is going
to need to beat them because that pressure is going
to be in Drake May's face all game long more
than likely.
Speaker 3 (28:40):
So key takeaways. Key takeaways. Okay, I know I just
just spewed out a lot. All right, all right, I've.
Speaker 1 (28:46):
Been yeah, putting, like gathering data for like a week
and a half now, and I just kind of threw
it all out.
Speaker 2 (28:52):
There, just multiple times.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
Even yeah, yeah, yeah, oh my gosh, you guys. We're
gonna talk about Seattle tomorrow. I had to redo the
Seattle stuff on the plane on the way here because
I had some tech issues, which was really fun. But yeah,
key takeaways for New England in the offense right pass
heavy approach. Seattle is very very good at stopping the run,
the best in the league at doing so, and New
(29:13):
England is a top five team, and pass right over
expected given the spread, given the game, the probable game
script here, I would be shocked if New England is
not pass heavy in this game against Seattle. But then
when they're pass heavy, I'm expecting more underneath throws, lower
ad Dot throws to the backs. So Ramandre Stevenson, Treveon
Henderson the slot. I think they're gonna throw Stephan Diggs
(29:34):
in there a lot like this is not to me
much of a Kishan Boudi kind of game.
Speaker 3 (29:38):
This is more of a Stephan Diggs game.
Speaker 1 (29:40):
And then the tight end, so Hunter Henry obviously being
to go to maybe your boy Austin Hooper will get
some some love or something or some random tight end
like that.
Speaker 3 (29:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
But then but then Drake May, you know, I think
the final takeaway, he's gonna be pressured, he's gonna be sacked.
Speaker 3 (29:55):
It's it's you know, sets up that way for sure.
Speaker 1 (29:58):
I Mean, look in these games too, teams have to execute,
you know, like like we could. I think we're gonna
know pretty quickly in the first couple drives if New
England's offensive line is gonna be able to hold up
and be able to stop the pressure that Seattle's going
to be bringing on that front, because Seattle's obviously, like
I said, they're not They're not doing it through the
blitz very frequently, and so we're gonna know pretty early on.
Speaker 3 (30:18):
So yeah, I mean, like New England could just like
play well that's all.
Speaker 1 (30:24):
Right, Yeah, but what I would expect is a fairly
heavy pressured game for Drake May.
Speaker 3 (30:32):
I think he's gonna be sacked, but I think he's gonna.
Speaker 1 (30:34):
Scramble a lot, So we could see a lot of
rushing yards and a decent amount of rushing attempts.
Speaker 3 (30:38):
You know, this is also like it's the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (30:41):
There's always been this like sort of like, I mean,
people have done research on this too, but just this
is like general rule that quarterbacks throw their bodies around
more whenever the games are on the line. We see
this with Patrick Mahomes when he's in the playoffs. Every
single year, his rushing numbers go up because this is
it like if he throws his body around and gets hurt, well,
that's that's this the last game of the year. So
(31:02):
they probably are are more than okay doing that, trying
to win a Super Bowl because these football players are
built differently.
Speaker 2 (31:08):
All Right, So let's say that let's say that Patriots
play well, yeah, let's say that they win. Okay, but
let's say that you have to pick an MVP not
named Drake May. That's a little bit under the radar,
a little bit of a sneaky play.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
Okay, I think you could go.
Speaker 1 (31:24):
Look, I've mentioned the running backs are interesting, but I
don't think they're going to go running back here because
the run game is not going to be solid enough
because Seattle can start to run so well. So then
you look at the receivers, you could go digs. I'm
going to lean more towards Hunter Henry. I think Hunter
Henry could be an X factor in this game.
Speaker 3 (31:42):
Uh, you know there's.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
A matchup to exploit. So yeah, I'm gonna say my
sneaky MVP for the Patriots is Hunter Henry.
Speaker 4 (31:49):
There you go.
Speaker 2 (31:50):
I mean they sneaky play again. This is not this
is not a a betting show, So don't you know
lock it in.
Speaker 1 (31:57):
But if you I mean, if you did, it's a
super Bowl and people are listening to whether the podcast, theater,
on YouTube, whatever. Yeah, like it's a super Bowl, like
you can have some fun and entertain yourselves with like
some ren and if it's like I just know that
I'm not a betting expert.
Speaker 3 (32:11):
That's I'm a fantasy football yeah analyst.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (32:14):
I like the sneaky play though.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
And another speaking of sneaky plays, another sneaky play that
has presented himself many times over the course of his
career just due to his position is coming up.
Speaker 4 (32:25):
Next.
Speaker 2 (32:25):
We've got Josh Johnson talking with us here on the
Late Round Show. All right, we are live with maybe
one of the mascots for the Late Round QB. It
is Josh Johnson. Josh last year with the Washington Commanders
and Josh you have been on a few teams in
your lifetime a lot. Yeah, And we were just talking
(32:49):
before before we went live, just about how how you
keep your body Like your body is an investment basically
for sure.
Speaker 5 (32:58):
Yeah, I mean, like the body is everything because it's
like I think the best way I can put it
into an example, it's.
Speaker 4 (33:07):
Like a car, you know what I mean.
Speaker 5 (33:09):
You know, the great cars are great with the age,
and if you don't take you can keep a car
from like we into the twenty twenty six. A car
from the seventies can work really well right now if
you take care of it every day. Yeah, And I
think that's the way the body is. You know, it's
the engine that needs fuel and it also needs proper
you know, it needs your WD four. You know, you
got to really keep the joints warmed up and stretching
(33:30):
is important. So that's probably the most thing, the most
I spend time.
Speaker 4 (33:36):
On right now is make sure my body is proper.
Speaker 1 (33:38):
Let's let's let me ask you about the position that
you play, right because obviously the biggest position in the game.
What do you think an average fan just doesn't understand
about what you do.
Speaker 5 (33:49):
They think we just come up. They just think we
show up in practice and go home. They think our
life is We think it's like high school. Oh you
got three hour practice and you do nothing else. My
days are in season or literally from six thirty until
I fall asleep.
Speaker 4 (34:04):
Literally, like I'm in a building six thirty.
Speaker 5 (34:07):
We have a walk through at six thirty, and then
you go your first official.
Speaker 4 (34:11):
Meeting is at eight o'clock.
Speaker 5 (34:13):
And know, everything prior to aid is optional, but you know,
as a quarterback, you gotta do these things to be prepared.
Speaker 4 (34:18):
And so I walk out of the building.
Speaker 5 (34:20):
Maybe six thirty seven every day, and then I go
home and watch film because I'd rather watch film on
an opponent in my living room because it's kind of
like my sanctuary versus just being in the building and
watching film because I feel like I've been in the
building all day, and literally sometimes I may fall asleep
eleven thirty twelve and then getting up and doing again
the next day.
Speaker 3 (34:39):
Yeah. Yeah, I mean, like.
Speaker 1 (34:42):
Your positioning and you being having been a backup for
a while now, like what's the toughest thing that you
have to kind of mentally prepare for and physically knowing
that in any given moment this year, right this past year,
any given moment you step in, you're is it the
preparation you think that later you can't look because it's
like we see a lot of these backup quarterbacks go
in and out right like like they'll be a backup
(35:04):
for three years in the league and then they're done.
But you've been around for so long and there's got
to be some secret sauce there.
Speaker 5 (35:09):
I think the sauce for me is literally like holding
myself to a standard that like it kind of is
borderline crazy.
Speaker 4 (35:17):
You gotta be a little bit crazy. You gotta be
a little.
Speaker 5 (35:19):
Crazy because you gotta you gotta trick your mind to
show up every day mentally like you're gonna play yeah,
because and I think for me it was those moments
when I did get to play, it really showed me
like like all right, it's like wow, Like bro, you're
gonna get in here and everything's gonna be moving really fast.
Speaker 4 (35:38):
You're not gonna really understand what they're gonna do.
Speaker 5 (35:41):
So you gotta you gotta be so prepared to where
you can slow your mind down. You want your mind
to really try to be slow so you can actually
just breathe and just play a game because once, like
typically I after the first two or three series, it
becomes football. But those two or three series you first
come in, it's so important because everybody looking like what
is he gonna do?
Speaker 4 (36:00):
What's gonna happen? It's going to happen. And if you're
going in the fourth quarter, now you got to make
something happen.
Speaker 5 (36:03):
So for me, I'm trying to come in there and
literally bring a com to myself first so I can
be normal as possible, even though I know it's not
going to be normal, and then be able to just
make sure that everybody around me can say, all right,
let's go play.
Speaker 4 (36:17):
He got it. Yeah, that's literally all I'm focused on.
Speaker 3 (36:19):
Yeah, I mean that's free mentality. Yeah, it's gotta be
Do you do you meditate it all?
Speaker 4 (36:24):
I meditate every day? Take you to the comapp?
Speaker 3 (36:26):
Does that?
Speaker 5 (36:26):
Does that?
Speaker 4 (36:27):
Is that?
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Do you think that's like a huge for sure?
Speaker 5 (36:30):
Like it was funny because my cousin Marshaan, you know Marshan, Ye,
like when he was at he's at the height of
his career. I used to always asking my cous like,
how do you like run through that? How do you
run through the sea gap and don't blink? He's like, cause,
I just breathe. He's like, I take a deep breath
before every play, and I literally just it centers me
(36:50):
to do my job and then react. And literally when
I when he said that, I just pursued it and
then it you know, I was like, Okay, I found
the comap. I meditated every day, do my tea minutes
and I understand that. I understand like the zen state
I need to be in. Once I reached that. Once
I reached that state, I'm like, I'm good, let's go
do that.
Speaker 2 (37:09):
Marshawn Lynch, your cousin. I want to know, did y'all
have a race?
Speaker 3 (37:14):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (37:14):
He beat me when we was little, but I beat
him when we got older.
Speaker 3 (37:18):
I mean he does not. He's got a little bit
more bulk to him.
Speaker 4 (37:20):
Now, don't tell him then.
Speaker 2 (37:22):
Yeah, you're in a four or five three. I mean
that's pretty good. My question is is this four or
five three that was that was a little bit ago, right,
so you know we're on as a quarterback there that's
blazing right exactly. So here's my question though, because now
you see everybody kind.
Speaker 3 (37:38):
Of fine tuning themselves.
Speaker 2 (37:39):
You know it's a game. You know they are gamifying
the numbers. You think you could run faster than a
four or five three if you kind of knew what
you know now, then.
Speaker 5 (37:48):
For sure, I feel like, like just the technique of
getting off and it's understanding the drive face for the
first two yards. Like the worst thing about me when
I was coming out, I did not I had a
horrible get off, Like I did not know how to
I didn't know how to start a race. I knew
I can make up because I had a long stride
and I had long legs, But literally, like right now,
my get off will people probably be a lot better
(38:08):
because I've heard the coaching points for eighteen years, Like
I've hear our coaches and I literally they don't think
I'll be paying attention, but I literally listen to what
they be saying.
Speaker 4 (38:16):
I'm okay, that makes a lot of sense.
Speaker 5 (38:18):
And so I think now I don't know if my
back end would be the same, yeah, but my first
team would be faster.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
So you you mentioned obviously been around the league for
a really long time, but you've also seen evolutions of
the league, like when you first entered, a lot of
like I mean, you had you had a lot of
like like fullbacks out back there with you.
Speaker 3 (38:36):
You had a bunch of like two running back sets,
and then like the McVeigh era kind of happens.
Speaker 1 (38:40):
You get a lot more eleven personnel, You get a
lot of these these spread offenses. But recently we're seeing
more of the heavy personnel.
Speaker 4 (38:47):
Come coming back.
Speaker 3 (38:47):
Yeah, this coming is that?
Speaker 1 (38:48):
Is that something that like you're consciously thinking about and
see like it is it league wide? Like does everyone
just like know that this is coming and happening, because
it's it's my from from my I'll say amateurized, but
like from my perspective, a lot of it is just
the reaction to what defenses are, how defense are now built?
Right for sure, they're they're they're thinner and faster and
all that kind of stuff.
Speaker 4 (39:08):
I think you hit it right on the now.
Speaker 5 (39:10):
First off, I think this is a product where we're
seeing the game trans form back to the old ways
because the pass rushers are just like ridiculous, Like they
literally are two hundred and ninety pounds running walked by here.
Speaker 4 (39:24):
It's like the biggest human man.
Speaker 3 (39:26):
I'm like, how couldn't any human being exactly.
Speaker 4 (39:28):
And they can't.
Speaker 5 (39:29):
They just they just try to shield them, you know
what I mean. And you got to you gotta deal
with those guys. And then he just one guy. Then
you got TJ. On the other side, you got high Smith,
then you got Herbert like and they literally sending five
guys who really just want to get sexs because that's
how they get paid. So so like seeing the game
like go from under center when I first came in
(39:51):
the league, because that's how I didn't. I never threw
a quick game. I never threw a slam route in
the gun until I got to the NFL.
Speaker 4 (39:57):
I didn't in college. We didn't do that.
Speaker 5 (39:58):
We took three steps and we threw a slam route,
and so I had to learn how to do that.
So see the game like go from under center to
spread world when RG three and Cap and Rustling, all
those guys came in the league and transformed the game
to now see it go back. Like I joke all
the time with the youngsters because they be thinking they're
doing something new. I'll be like, bro, this has been
(40:19):
done already, now it's coming back, and they'd be like, oh,
we don't want to play that way. I said, you
got to play that way because these pass rushers are
just elite.
Speaker 4 (40:26):
They're the best athletes on the field.
Speaker 5 (40:28):
And I think in order to protect the lineman, in
order for the run to me to protect your quarterbacks,
because I think if you're dropping your quarterback fifty times
a game in the.
Speaker 4 (40:36):
Shotgun, it's a different element.
Speaker 5 (40:38):
But for a linebacker and a safety, when the quarterback's
under center and a running back seven and a half
yards deep in the die, it's a different mentality. He
has a seven yard head start to get to me,
versus he's running sideways and his shoulders not square, and
so the mentality is different. And I think it's smart
by the coaches to be able to bring the old
ways back because it's a.
Speaker 4 (40:58):
Grind on the defense.
Speaker 5 (41:00):
And I think, now now you know, to spread, everybody
wants to score a lot of points in its great
and looks flashy, but it doesn't run the defense out.
And I think what we're seeing now, we're starting to
find that balance again within the league of grinding the
defense so that in the fourth quarter, those past rushers
are a little bit normalized, you know what I mean,
So the quarterback can drop back and see the defense
clean and get completions.
Speaker 1 (41:18):
How difficult though, has it also been with the too
high and teams running that as frequently as they are
with these safeties just back like the splash players just
aren't existing nearly as much anymore. So are you you
as a quarterback, how frustrating is it that you have
to just go to you know, just run like a
five yard out and.
Speaker 3 (41:35):
You're just like, that's what we got to do here.
Speaker 5 (41:36):
So for me, I don't really care because I played
in the old ways, the old ways that was normal.
Speaker 4 (41:41):
The new ways.
Speaker 5 (41:42):
It's funny hearing defensive coaches walk into like I played
for some defensive coaches and I will get up there
and they'll get a game plan and say, well, I
don't really care if they rush for one hundred and
fifty yards.
Speaker 4 (41:52):
I'm like, what right?
Speaker 5 (41:53):
Like, I wouldn't have never in my life Money Kiffin
and my rookie year would have went crazy if he
gave up one hundred and fifty yards rushing. Yeah, they like,
we don't care if they're restaur one hundred and fifty.
They're not gonna stick to it.
Speaker 4 (42:03):
They want it. They're gonna they're gonna try to throw bombs.
Speaker 5 (42:05):
They're gonna take shape, they're gonna take shots, and when
they take shots, we're gonna we're gonna intercept them. And
for me, I'm like, well, this is kind of how
I was trained. Like me, all I look at it.
If I get four yards, I get a first down,
and I keep matriculating down the field.
Speaker 4 (42:17):
Eventually you're gonna have to get.
Speaker 3 (42:18):
Me what I want exactly.
Speaker 4 (42:19):
And once you get me what I want, we're gonna
have our way. So that's just kind of how I
look at Yeah.
Speaker 5 (42:23):
Thoughts on David blow As shout out to b blou Man, big,
big shout out to him. Excited for him. I'm excited
for his opportunity. He works really hard, he's a student
of the game. He's very detailed, very detailed, And me
and him got real close because when Tavda left, he
became our quarterback coach and so when I was playing,
me and him work literally worked side by side. So
(42:45):
I think he's gonna be awesome. I think he's ready,
and I think he's gonna be great for Jaden. I
think he's gonna be great for the team, and I'm
looking forward to see his opportunity.
Speaker 1 (42:53):
Did you think that, like there's been this shift in
these backup quarterbacks like rising up the.
Speaker 3 (42:57):
Ranks quickly, like very fascinating across the league. You have
Davis Webb now.
Speaker 5 (43:02):
Doing like shout out to dragons, young Dragon, Dragon Web
It was my I play with him in New York.
Speaker 3 (43:07):
Yeah nice. And I mean even like you know, Scott
Tolzen didn't he didn't take.
Speaker 4 (43:10):
It, Scottie and San franc.
Speaker 3 (43:15):
But all these all these backup quarterbacks are just sky like.
Speaker 1 (43:19):
Do you think that it is the sort of cerebral
like the fact that you guys have to be prepared
in a way that other players aren't prepared. And you
guys just I mean the bottom line, you guys just
know ball more than than the other player.
Speaker 5 (43:32):
All three of those names, all the three of those
guys you just named, they literally students of the game.
Like they can they can give it to you from
a quarterbacks perspective, they can give it to you from
a coach's perspective, from what the receivers need to do,
tight ends, running backs, et cetera. And I think, you know,
I'm glad the league is doing this because we need
more teachers of the game. I think in the best
teachers of the game is guys that being able to
(43:53):
actually be in inexperience it.
Speaker 4 (43:54):
Because it's one thing. It's one thing. It's one thing.
Speaker 5 (43:57):
We call it clicking clicker pimping, like we it's one
thing to be able to actually sit up there and
wind it's slowing down and be able to say, Okay,
why didn't you do this? But one thing is about
the guys who played. They have that they have that
discernment to understand, like, I see why you did that.
I see that I saw the three technique get beat.
I saw the three technique beat the right guard and
flashed in front of your eyes even though he didn't
(44:18):
hit you. So I understand why you had to why
you had to change your drop or why you moved
your eyes that way. And I think it's so necessary
now because the league has gotten younger. You know, most
of the teams are a lot younger than what they
used to be. So you need guys in there who
actually experienced it, who can teach it and also had
that discernment and be like, I understand why you did
that because everybody everything is a reaction and you know,
(44:39):
you know, now we're so critical of the game.
Speaker 4 (44:40):
You like, why didn't he do this? Why didn't he
do that?
Speaker 5 (44:43):
And I tell my fan, I tell exactly like I
tell I tell my family all the time. Like you
guys have been seen. You guys have been watching football
from a lens of seeing it. Played it the right
way for cut y'all watching on Sunday, I said, but
you got to put in perspective. This is second year
in the league, his first time being out there. This
is all new for him. What's owed to you as
(45:03):
a fan, it's new for him. So something that may
seem routine not routine for him. He got to go
through those limps just like everybody else did. It's not
like we got Tom Brady's just sitting around here forty
five everywhere.
Speaker 3 (45:14):
Yeah, yeah, you know what I mean. It's definitely the
exception for sure.
Speaker 2 (45:18):
All right, real quick, before we go, favorite wide receiver,
you're thrown too. Ooh ooh, it's fourth down, it's fourth
and gold.
Speaker 4 (45:29):
Oh my god.
Speaker 2 (45:29):
From the twelve.
Speaker 3 (45:33):
You get a lot of choices.
Speaker 5 (45:34):
I got a lot of choices, and I got them
in different eras too, Like I played with Odell before
the injuries.
Speaker 4 (45:40):
Yeah, I play with a look.
Speaker 3 (45:42):
If you want to say, Pete Odell. That's very accepted.
Speaker 2 (45:45):
Like Odell in his prime.
Speaker 4 (45:46):
Will make somebody man.
Speaker 5 (45:50):
If it's fourth and twelve on the red zone, yeah,
I mean I need a high target who can catch anything.
I'm gonna go with a young AJ Green Cincinnati because
AJ literally can catch anything, oh my god. Like and
he was like a center fielder, like he could put it.
He could track a ball, put his head down, speed up,
and retrack it. AJ Green was easy. Like AJ go
(46:11):
out there running Fae real quick. I'm gonna throw a
back short. There's gonna be a touchdown. So I'm gonna say,
but no disrespect to none of the receivers I played with,
because they was awesome. But it was four and twelve
from the red zone, so I had to go out
the six four target.
Speaker 2 (46:23):
All right, Well, thanks Josh, really appreciate you being all.
Speaker 5 (46:26):
Thanks for having appreciate it. Thank you all for educating
on fantasy football because I don't understand.
Speaker 2 (46:34):
All right, So that was the interview with Josh. Dude,
I'm gonna come Josh because he was awesome. He's he's
a friend now.
Speaker 1 (46:41):
Yeah, so people didn't see like we were talking to
him for like five minutes before five to get him
to like his workouts and like your easy to get
this on record.
Speaker 2 (46:53):
Yeah, it was fun.
Speaker 3 (46:55):
It was awesome. He was a super super cool dude,
but it was it was fun.
Speaker 1 (46:58):
Like that's the kind of thing that I've noticed with
with being here in Radio row and like experiencing the
Super Bowl is just like I want to just talk
to these players. Yes, we play fantasy football, and like
it's very easy to not think of them as people sometimes,
right because that's the game that we play, and no
one's at fault for that's just like naturally how we
play this game. We're looking at the kind of production
(47:19):
they're giving us, the numbers that they're giving us, and
so it is it is really nice to just because
we don't get this opportunity to just sit down and
talk to players and so hopefully you guys like enjoyed
the questions we asked and kind of the insight that
he gave. I thought he gave some awesome answers, but
also like just know that like you know, before and
after and such, like he was awesome.
Speaker 3 (47:35):
It was great to talk to him.
Speaker 2 (47:36):
Yeah, and tomorrow we've got some wide receivers that we'll
talk to, including one who is just rising up the
draft boards, and another who crushed it last year's rookie season.
So stick around for that JJ. Do you have any
closing thoughts?
Speaker 3 (47:50):
No, man, I'm just thankful that we're here and hopefully
everyone enjoyed.
Speaker 1 (47:54):
I know, it's a little bit of a different show
and a different format and stuff, and things will be
back to normal next week and all that all that stuff.
Speaker 3 (48:00):
You know, I did the by candidate's episode earlier this week.
Speaker 1 (48:02):
But yeah, I mean, like, hopefully you guys are enjoying it,
and you guys can can feel our excitement, you know
through the show that like this is cool.
Speaker 3 (48:11):
Man. Yeah, it's pretty cool. It's cool.
Speaker 2 (48:12):
It's pretty cool having everyone around us.
Speaker 3 (48:15):
It's cool.
Speaker 2 (48:15):
So shout out to iHeart and the folks at the
NFL radio or podcast network on behalf of JJ, I'm David.
We'll see you next time here on the late round
Fantasy football show piece. All right,
You're about to listen to a special edition of the
Late Round Fantasy Football Show, which was recorded at Radio
Row prior to this year's Super Bowl. If you want
to watch it, you can find it on YouTube as
well YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF. The
format is a little bit different than usual, but we
hope that you still get a lot from listening to
the show. Next week we'll be back in our normal schedule,
(00:20):
but for now, we hope you enjoy.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Welcome in. Welcome In. It's the Late Round Fantasy Football Show,
live from Radio Row.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Here at the super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Jju and I both survived and we are here right now.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Barely got a foot of snow in Charlotte. Literally literally
you know that. I said that we got a foot
of snow on Twitter. Yeah, and someone responded and they asked,
Grock if Charlotte got a foot of snow?
Speaker 4 (00:59):
Is this true?
Speaker 3 (01:00):
As if I'm lying?
Speaker 5 (01:01):
Now?
Speaker 1 (01:01):
We got to photous know, but fortunately I was able
to move my flight a little bit later on Monday.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
Yeah, and I made it out here. I mean, I
am working on four hours of sleep right.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Now, I know, but we're going to power through. We've
got a fun show today. We'll also be here tomorrow
as well, and we're even doing some little player interviews.
So make sure that you are continuing to like, subscribe, listen,
comment wherever you will. And also big news if you
missed it in the Friday newsletter, which by the way,
go sign up a late Round dot com. We've got
(01:32):
lots of good stuff coming in the newsletter. But if
you missed it, the pre order for the Prospect Guide
now available. So all your rookies, all your year two
players and JJ this year, we have something new we do.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
We are doing tight end profiles.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
Yeah, and not just the scores, because the scores have
been there in the past. The other thing too is
that like in the past, I've had the tight end
model and that model.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
You know, it's not been bad or anything, but it
needs a little bit of work.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
And so I'm working with grand and Goadula to make
sure that things are looking good. And so he is
going to be writing a lot of those profiles.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
For tight ends.
Speaker 5 (02:10):
You know.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
Obviously I'm going to obviously be working with him on
the tight end profiles.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
But he's not gone rogue on tight ends.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
Yeah, yeah, I'm not.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
I'm not ignoring the position I just need help because
there's a lot of pages in that prospect guide. I
mean usually we're looking at like one hundred and fifty
plus pages in this thing. Yeah, and so you're going
to get the running back profiles, the wide receiver profiles,
the tight end profiles, and then the year two stuff
is still going to be in there with the running
backs and the wide receivers for year two. And I
need to get on it. I need to start working
(02:37):
on that thing more. I've been working on it, just
not enough.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
I mean listen, when you're invited by the fine folks
at the you know iHeart in the NFL to come
to priority shift the Super Bowl week, then you say, okay,
I'm to go, you know, yeah, we'll push it back
a few days later. So yeah, looking forward to that.
I know a lot of people out there are anxious
to see what this rookie class is coming, and including myself.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
Yeah, to be fair, I've I've done nearly enough research
yet on this class to have takes right now.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
So yeah, I mean like it's it's a little bit later,
but also.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
We did give ourselves an extra week at launch, so
it's middle of March as opposed to kind of like
more towards the beginning of March for the release of
the Prospect.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
All right, and with that, let's get on to today's news.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Today's fantasy news.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
All right, JJ, we've got today's news. First of all.
First of all, we are here on that iHeartRadio set,
the NFL podcast Network set. We made it like we
just talked about the weather. I walked around all day yesterday.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
I left you.
Speaker 2 (03:42):
Stranded, yeah, by myself in San Francisco, and and I
miss you. But I want to know, are you feeling
any different now about the whole weather thing, because I
feel like I asked the weather question about like weather
games and stuff, and then we've had like bad weather.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
Nashville. I hate all weather right now.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
Yes, I mean, I feel worse for my wife, who
I left to come here, and she's at home with
my seven and three year old while they're off school.
And I'm sitting here in front of this fantastic crowd
of people. It's awesome living the dream, you know, just
doing a show and talking talking ball and I'm gonna
talk to some players and such, and so thank you
(04:24):
to my wife for being at home with the children.
But yeah, I mean like coming here to San Francisco.
To me, this is an ideal climate. Yeah, right, so
you get like low sixties during the day, it's always sunny,
all that kind of stuff, and it's a it's a
very good climate when you just got a foot of snow.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
And you were in you know, twenty degree weather, Yeah
for sure.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
All right, let's talk about some of the today's news,
and most of the news right now is is centered
around coaching. Lots of lots of coaching changes, people accepting offers,
people backing out of offers, people crying about offers. In
a late round discord today, noted Giants fan Deep just
he was in a state of disbelief because Matt Naggy yeah,
(05:07):
was announced the offensive coordinator for the New York Giants.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
Look, I gotta watch what I say here.
Speaker 4 (05:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (05:12):
Yeah, there's a lot of people that are part of
the league around us right now. Okay, Look, it's it's
an uninspiring higher, that's the way that I would put it.
Speaker 3 (05:21):
Yeah, it's a.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
Higher that I don't think Giants fans are excited about.
And I think there's reason to not be overly bullish
and excited about. I think when you have a quarterback
like Jackson Dart. You're gonna want to pair him with
sort of an up and coming, younger coordinator to kind
of mesh with an older head coach who understands the
leadership side of things, which is what you have in
John Harbaugh. And if you look at the data with
(05:44):
Matt Naggy, the last three years of him in Kansas City,
and you know, obviously he took over for Eric the
Enemy and now the enemy's back as OCA.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
They've just been flip flopping.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
But over the last three year here, let me, let
me just read what happened with Eric the Enemy in
twenty twenty two.
Speaker 3 (05:59):
A lot of people are gonna hear this and they're
gonna think.
Speaker 1 (06:01):
Oh, well they had Tyreek Hill that No, Tyreek Hill
was already in Miami at this point. So this is
the final season with Eric Bienemy as offensive coordinator for
Kansas City. And in that season they had a total
EPA of two.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
Hundred and one point four.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
Their expected points added per play was point one point nine. Okay,
and so then their success rate on offense was over
fifty percent. Their rushing EPA per play was only minus
point zero one. I know that's that's below zero, but
rushing is less efficient than passing, which is why EPA
numbers are below zero. Like that, for rushing, the rushing
success rate was forty five percent, their pass rate over
(06:38):
expected was A was eleven percent over expected. So overall
that offense was was cooking with Eric enemy that final year,
and then Matt Naggy takes over. Okay, twenty twenty three,
twenty twenty four, and twenty twenty five, twenty twenty three
we see him take over, and EPA per play goes
from point one to nine to point zero two, and
in the next two years with Matt Naggy point zero seven,
(06:59):
point zero three. Okay, success rate overall success rate for
the offense fifty point four percent with Eric the enemy,
then it goes to forty.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
Four percent, forty eight percent, forty five percent.
Speaker 1 (07:08):
So essentially, what I'm getting at is, every single year
post Eric Bienemy, it's with Matt Naggie, it's gone down.
Speaker 3 (07:15):
It's been it's been worse, objectively worse.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
And to me, it's not that I think Mattnaggy's gonna
necessarily fail. It's just again, it's an uninspiring higher when
you consider what he did with that offense versus a
similar I mean, look, if you look at that twenty
twenty two Chiefs team, it's Juju Smith Schuster and and
marquezvald Is scantling catching passes from Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 3 (07:35):
I mean, it's not a very deep roster whatsoever.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
And now and then and then you look at what
they had even last year, uh and even the year
before that. I don't think there's been enough of a
shift offensively for that team to warrant such differing numbers
from coordinator to coordinator, And that to me is a
red flag for this hire in general. But like I
always say, you know, bottom line, with coaching hires, we
(07:59):
don't know, don't We don't know. We have to be
like we don't know things about projecting player performance in
general and fantasy football. It's even more difficult whenever you're
looking at coaching stuff because there's just so many layers
or so much nuance. We don't know exactly who's influencing what,
et cetera.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
Et cetera.
Speaker 1 (08:14):
But my overall vibe is probably the same vibe that
a lot of Giants fans feel right now. They're just
kind of like, why why can't it just be someone
a little bit.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
I mean, I feel like they they were on cloud
nine because they got Harball as their coach.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
Yeah, and like he was the pick number one, which.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
You know, I do think that the Harbaugh thing though, too.
It's like was it a bad high or no? Was
it like this excellent amazing, you know, like incredible higher.
I don't even know if that's necessarily going to be
the case. You know, it's partially because of what I
just said about coaching. But you know, there's there's a
lot of the data going around about like Mike McCarthy
versus John Harbaugh, and there's not this significant significant difference
(08:53):
between you know, when percentage and how well they performed,
et cetera.
Speaker 3 (08:56):
Et cetera, and people will pooh pooh.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
And I understand why the Mike McCarthy, uh, you know,
or you know, getting getting him to head coach of Steelers, right,
But they're not doing this the complete opposite vibe with
with Harbaugh.
Speaker 3 (09:07):
I'm not saying that I think McCarthy is the better coach.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
I'm just saying that when you when you're compare and
contrast the two, it's not so so significant. I I'm
just of the belief that if you really want to
take a team to the next level, I I'd rather
take chances on leaders and new coaches and kind of
fresh blood into the system instead of recycling coaches who
have already shown that from one regime to another or
one you know, offensive coordinator to another, there's no improvement.
(09:33):
It was actually the opposite with with Matt Naggie, right,
and so you know, I just I think that that
coaching staff in general, it's not as inspiring as I
would want it to be, especially with Jackson Dark, who
I think is one of the best young up and
coming quarterbacks in the league.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
Yeah, it's fantasy, guys. We need we we want the exciting,
the you know, the sexy hire at.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
The admitting that, yeah, maybe it's a blind spot, but
it's you know, it's fun.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Well as far as other If you look the sheet
that we've done in the late round, show like we're
starting to fill in names both on the offensive cornertor
side and the coaching side. You got Clint Kubiak and
Mike Lafleur who are now for the Raiders and the Cardinals.
So all the head coaching spots are filled. Declan Doyle
(10:17):
announces the Ravens offensive coordinator. You've got Sean Mannion with
the Eagles and Davis Webb with Broncos. So we're getting
we're getting set to where the teams are know who
they have.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
There's some really interesting hires in here.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
I mean I think that, you know, if you want
to start with with some of the coaching stuff, I
think the Clint Kubiak hire was was pretty strong just
in general. Obviously, you know we're here in San Francisco,
Seattle is about to play on Sunday.
Speaker 4 (10:42):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
He's been you know, somewhat of an innovator in the
way that I mean.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
He does the things that we want to see offenses
do in today's game, which is get receivers in space,
move them around, lots of play action, lots of lots
of motion at the line. Uh.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
You know, I would argue that he relies a little bit.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
Too much on the run game, especially from like a
password over expected perspective. But I think I think Kubiak
is a is a good higher, like a solid higher.
But again with head coaching highers, it's like we don't
know what kind of leadership. Some some dudes are awesome coordinators,
but they don't necessarily translate.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
And that's important.
Speaker 3 (11:17):
Yeah, yeah, of course, of course. And then the lafloor one.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
I mean, if you look at the track record of
offensive coordinators under Sean mcmay, you know, going on in
coaching teams, I mean you have guys like Zach Taylor
and obviously Kevin O'Connell. I mean, there's there's a pretty
decent track record of this.
Speaker 3 (11:32):
H I'm expecting Nate.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
Schielhouse to be more involved there now moving forward, and
you know, he was already a name in this coaching cycle.
I think next year Shieldhouse is going to be somebody
that a lot of teams are looking at as sort
of a you know, one of those young up and
coming dudes who you know, again has been attached to
Sean McVay and if you're attached.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
To he's a sexy hire. When when is this going
to end?
Speaker 2 (11:56):
The Sean McVay stuff, Like, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (11:58):
Like literally anything in touches just end up turning to
gold at least like perspective of what of what teams
are are doing.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
We used to have the Bill Belichick tree, you know.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
Yeah, so Sean Mcmahanah, maybe maybe he'll be a first
bout Hall of Famer.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Yeah, okay, when the Saints go marching out, Because you
talked about McCarthy, he thought he may had some guys.
Scott Tolzen, though, is not going to be the offensive corner.
Speaker 3 (12:22):
He was the passing game.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
Coordinator there for the Saints not going and neither is
Chase has lit the tight ends coach for the Saints.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
Yeah, it's kind of interesting because both of those guys
would have been would have gotten promotions.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
Yeah, essentially, you know, I don't know, you like, we've
seen this a little bit, like Davis.
Speaker 1 (12:38):
Webb was an example of this, where you know, the
fire offense coordinator, you just kind of assume that there's
a promotion coming, even though Davis Webb was someone that
was getting a lot of love elsewhere throughout the league,
in around the league. But you know, with with this,
these guys, uh, you know, maybe some sort of promotions coming,
maybe something's going on. But I think that they just
(12:58):
like the situation and it might speak to Tyler Shuck.
Do you think like it could it could mean that
they see they believe in him, Yeah, like they see something. Yeah,
and they look at Pittsburgh and they're like, well they're
in and well they don't even have a quarterback right now,
but if they, if they are, you know, approaching and
trying to get Aaron Rodgers, we don't want to be
in quarterback purgatory.
Speaker 3 (13:18):
We would rather we're already getting looks right.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
Now based on what Tyler Schuck did last year and
what this offense kind of morphed into last year. And
that was without mind you, without Rashichi he gets traded
mid season. Chris Olave stepped up and was this the
target hog that we know that he is. That was
an offense that lacked legit weapons. Yeah, uh, and they
were still at least like getting it done to a degree.
(13:40):
And I thought Tyler, I mean Tyler Schuck was shooting
up offensive Rookie of the Year, uh you know, uh
leader boards for from a betting perspective, you know, with
his play down the stretch. So I think it might
speak to that a little bit more like if you
got Tyler Shuck in the third round of your rookie
Super Flights draft last year, that's a good Yeah, that's
(14:00):
a really really good value.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
He was going, I mean, he was going late to
the late round quarterback. He was going late, not even
drafted in a lot of leagues then and being later
on in there. As far as the Pittsburgh side, though,
it might be the opposite where they see Taylor Shuck
and they're like, yes, look, I've.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
Been warming up to the Mike McCarthy hire a little
bit more.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
I will say, I do think that it's not a
good signal, right, Yeah, these guys are not I'm good joining, Yeah,
where they're like, no, we'd rather be with because there's
a chance that Tyler Shuck isn't him right, And they're like, no,
I'd rather be here in New Orleans on a team
that's clearly not there are yet you know, we wouldn't
say that they're there.
Speaker 3 (14:40):
So yeah, maybe there's a little.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
Bit of a of an issue with how you know
McCarthy is running that It could be a play calling
thing too, you know, there could be something that going on.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
We'll see, we'll see.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
I mean, the Steelers have filled out that coaching staff
for the most part aside from what's kind of going
on on offense, and we'll see what happens. But you know,
I don't want to read too too much into it. Yeah,
but I don't think you can take it as.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
A good thing.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
Well, here is a good thing in Pittsburgh, and that
is the NFL Draft that's coming you.
Speaker 3 (15:08):
That's true.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
You saw the announcements. You're still saying no to going, buddy.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
We just talked about the prospect guy. I know, okay,
we have we know it's in Pittsburgh, though it's in
your backyard here here. Well, we'll ask, we'll ask listeners.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
Would you guys rather have me go and enjoy a
night of the draft okay and be a day late
with the delivery of this draft guy for the rookie
ranks or beyond time.
Speaker 3 (15:31):
And I think people will say, just be on time. Selfish.
Speaker 1 (15:35):
You are my fantasy analyst. I don't care how good
of a time you have up in your hometown.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
In Pittsburgh's Thursday day one could be fun, But it
does look like it's gonna be fun. You're you're Pittsburgh Nestes.
It like when you see that picture and everything does
it like it?
Speaker 3 (15:48):
At least you don't.
Speaker 1 (15:49):
You don't lose any part of it when you when
you leave Pittsburgh. It's still always a part of the kitchen.
It's always a part.
Speaker 3 (15:53):
Of today's data.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
All right, we're here with today's data, and you've got
some super Bowl spreads for us JJ.
Speaker 3 (16:02):
Yeah, Look, there's.
Speaker 1 (16:03):
Not that much depth here per se, but I did
I was curious to see if there's any sort of
like similar games that have happened historically in the Super Bowl. Obviously,
this is sixty so there's not like a massive, massive
sample size, but we do have, you know, spread data
that dates back to basically all of them, I think
the only only super Bowl one we didn't have a total,
(16:25):
And so I looked back at all of that and
I found eight different super Bowls that had a spread
that was within a half a point of the one
that we're about to watch. And we've seen five kind
of over the last you know, since that that Ravens
forty nine. I guess you can go to the Saints
and Colts whenever the Saints beat the Colts in that
Super Bowl back in the mid two thousands, but there
(16:48):
have been a handful of games that have been within
a half point of the one that we're about the watch.
And what I found kind of interesting and this is, look,
this is not predictive, you guys, right, Okay, I need
to be clear.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
This is not a more historical This is more just like.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
An interesting thing to kind of look at, because I
think that most people are entering the Super Bowl and
they're like, Seattle's the better team, Seattle has the edge.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
We got to give it to Seattle.
Speaker 1 (17:10):
But we were saying and running with the same narratives
for a lot of these other teams that were four
and a half point favorites.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
And they did not win.
Speaker 1 (17:18):
The only team over the last five where the spread
has been within.
Speaker 3 (17:25):
Half a point of what the spread is for this one,
which is minus four and a half.
Speaker 1 (17:28):
Four of the five teams the underdog has won, you
get the Eagles over the Patriots. You have the Broncos
over the Panthers, you have the Ravens over the forty
nine ers, and the Saints over the Colts. The only
one that wasn't was the Bengals against the Rams, where
that was tight.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
You know, that was a.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
Relatively tight game where the Bengals still beat the spread
in that game.
Speaker 3 (17:48):
So I don't know, man.
Speaker 1 (17:49):
You know, we're gonna talk about what the Patriots are
likely to do on offense, you know what the Seahawks
are likely to do on offense, and you know we
can kind of see how this game unfolds, but I'm
not gonna be shocked based on what we've seen historically
and just some of the research I've done. But this
game is a little bit closer than people then.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
Yeah, And we'll be talking about these games and we'll
be talking about each team. So we're covering the Patriots today,
We're covering the Seahawks tomorrow. So with that being said,
let's get on to the main event.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
It's the late round, main event, all.
Speaker 2 (18:26):
Right, we're talking about the New England side of this
Super Bowl LX matchup, JJY, And so these are some
key call outs that you've kind of created for New England.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
Yeah, so I want to approach this from the perspective
of like what I think New England's going to do
and how successful they might be in doing those things.
And this is based off of matchup and based off
of what they do well.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
So I just have a ton of notes. I'm going
to go through them.
Speaker 1 (18:50):
This is what I think will happen on the New
England side of the ball when they have the ball
and when.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
They're on offense.
Speaker 1 (18:55):
Okay, so first off, they're over three point underdogs for
just the second time this year, which kind of crazy.
Speaker 3 (19:00):
Yeah, everyone's made a really big deal about the schedule, and.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
Here I am once again making a big deal in
the schedule. But I've been on records saying that you
can still see how good a team is based on
how they perform against bad teams too, And New England's
had a great point differential, et cetera, et cetera. Like
they've done what they needed to do and more, and
analytics agree that they're a good team. Like, I think
New England representing the AFC is totally fine during a
year where there are weaker AFC teams, you know.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
So I just want to get that out of the way.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
But they are over three point underdogs versus the second
time this year. You know, if you look at overall
pass rate for New England, that's not going to be
super super helpful because they've been favored in a lot
of games they played weaker opponents. Obviously, when that's the case,
game script is in their favor, they're going to.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
Run the ball a little bit more.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
But Kitchen, they ranked top five in the NFL this
year and pass right over expected. They saw over three
more pass temps per game in games where they were
underdogs this year, So I do expect them to have
a more pass heavy approach. That's not just because of
the way games script might go in the fact that
they're underdogs here, but Seattle has by far the best
(20:06):
EPA per rush defense in the NFL. They've been the
best at stopping the run across the league. They're their
top and rushing yards over expected per attempt allowed. They've
been so good in the front at stopping these opposing
running backs. And if you look at this on a
game by game basis, only Washington in Week nine had
a greater than fifty percent success rate on the ground
(20:27):
against Seattle, which is bonkers. Only five teams finished with
a positive rushing yards over expected against Seattle.
Speaker 3 (20:35):
Only one team finished with a positive EPA per rush
against them.
Speaker 1 (20:37):
I mean, it's crazy, it's crazy how good the Seattle
defense has been against the run. So what that means is,
so Seattle, they do have a good pass defense, they're
they're the eighth best pass defense by EPA per drop
back loud, but they're just so good against the run.
When you combine that with New England potentially trailing Slash
(20:59):
being in this kind of game script and the fact
that they have a high pass rate over expected. To
begin with pass rate over expected for those you know,
because we throw this around all the time. Password over
expected is looking at gamescript situations and seeing is this
team more pass heavy than than a team typically would
be in this situation? Right, So New England is more
pass heavy, you know, in these situations than other teams
(21:20):
typically would be.
Speaker 3 (21:21):
So this is what I think could happen.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
Drake may might just scramble a lot in this game
because there's gonna be more dropbacks. That means that there's
more opportunities for scrambles and Seattle they also generate pressures
at the fourth highest rate in the league, despite blitzing
at the fourth lowest rate. So what that means is
they're getting pressure on the quarterback without having to send
a lot of guys, which means they have enough players
in coverage where it's going to be more difficult in
(21:45):
the quarterback to find the open receiver. What happens then
quarterbacks scramble, and that's what's happened against Seattle all year.
Seattle's face the most quarterback scrambles of any team in
football this year. So New England there's sixth in pressure
rate alowed, but only and only Geno Smith, Tyler Shuck
and Cam mood So two rookie quarterbacks, and Geno Smith,
who had the worst season of you know in a
(22:07):
while for for Gino Smith, uh with Vegas. Only those
three quarterbacks were worse in pressure to sack rate than
Drake May this year. So my fear is that Seattle's
going to be able to get to Drake May and
beat that offensive line. Drake May then obviously, yeah.
Speaker 3 (22:26):
Yeah, we've seen that in the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (22:27):
Yeah, but Drake May is going to have to do
something under pressure, and it's not gonna be the easiest
thing in the world to find that open receiver. So
he's gonna scramble. That's what he's done, you know, throughout
the season. So I think that there's a chance that
he sees a lot of rushing yards in this game
and a lot of scrambles. But there's also a chance
that he's still sacked a lot in this game. Right,
So if you're looking at at betting lines and such,
(22:48):
you know, this is not a betting podcast or not.
Speaker 3 (22:52):
I don't get line advice.
Speaker 1 (22:53):
That's just not you know, not what I do, But
I do think that this is a situation where I
think the line was like three and a half seven Seattle.
Speaker 3 (23:01):
I would take the over.
Speaker 1 (23:02):
They've the Patriots have faced four top ten teams in
pressure rate this year. Three of those four teams sacked
Drake May four more times. So that's that's the over
right in that in that kind of situation. So I'm
expecting May to get sacked at least four times in
this game, but also expecting him to maybe run the
ball a lot and potentially, I say potentially is like
(23:25):
a long shot actually lead the Patriots and rushing yards
in this game because Seattle is so good at stopping
the run just naturally and Ramandre Stevenson. I think, I
think there's a chance that Drake May out rushes reminds
as what this is, Okay, I say a chance.
Speaker 3 (23:41):
I don't mean like a fifty to fifty chance.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
Of course, I'm not gonna say, but if the odds
are good enough, you know, if you want to bet
on that, whatever it's I'm not I'm not going down
that path. I'm just giving you guys what I'm seeing
from from a spreadsheet perspective. The other thing that I
think they're gonna do is. I think New England's gonna
throw a lot more underneath. Drake May was arguably the
best deep ball passer in the NFL this past year.
Speaker 3 (24:04):
Okay, but he might not have as much time.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
For those plays to developed because of the pressure rate
and what and the kind of pressure that Seattle can
put on him. And Seattle was top five and two
high safety rate this past year, So Seattle's not They're
they're better at preventing those bigger plays and that's obviously
something that Drake May has really thrived on.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
And this is from Brandon Goadula of Late Round.
Speaker 1 (24:27):
Yeah, he was doing a little bit of research for
this and it was really really good and interesting stat
But in games where teams showed specific safety tendencies, here's
Drake May's adjusted net yards per temporrates. Okay, so single
high when when teams generally showed single high the majority
of the time, he had an eight point five to
two adjusted net yards per tenpary. In a more balanced
(24:48):
situation where it was kind of both too and single
seven point seven to three adjusted net yards pert tempt
when he's faced too high six point zero seven three
games where he's faced the majority of the defense had
two high safeties.
Speaker 3 (25:02):
I think that we're gonna.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
See fewer deep ball passes. He's gonna take his shots
because that's what he does. He's a pretty aggressive thrower,
and he's unbelievable at getting the ball down the field.
But I think we're going to see a little bit
more of a conservative approach through the air from Drake
may in this game. Not just because he's a young
quarterback in the Super Bowl, and that's a big deal inherently,
but the other side of.
Speaker 3 (25:24):
This is just that I think the matchup dictates this.
Speaker 1 (25:27):
And if you look at what Seattle does defensively, they
were thirty first and adjusted target share allowed to wide
receivers this year, which means when teams face Seattle, they
weren't throwing to the wide receivers at a very high rate,
second lowest rate in all football. But Seattle ranked first
and adjusted running back target share allowed, and they were
fifteenth and adjusted tight end target share allowed eleventh and
slot wide receiver target share allowed.
Speaker 3 (25:48):
So what does that tell you?
Speaker 1 (25:49):
Teams are throwing to their running backs so behind the
line of scrimmage or close to the line of scrimmage,
Middle of the field slot receivers, middle of the field
tight ends, and Seattle faced the highest percentage of targets
actually in the NFL behind the.
Speaker 3 (26:01):
Line of scrimmage this season.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
So I would look for New England if we're looking
at this matchup. Okay, I'm not saying that like this
is definitely because maybe they don't like this matchup or
maybe I mean, I'm clearly could be looking at this
wrong too, because.
Speaker 3 (26:13):
I get plenty of stuff wrong.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
But I would look for New England to use their
running backs a lot of receivers in this game. I
would I would look at them to use Stefan Diggs
out of a slot. I would not be shocked if
Diggs sees one of the highest route participation rates of
his season, because you know, we tilted about this during
the fantasy season. How Diggs would see, you know, a
(26:35):
seventy five percent routes share, and then a fifty percent
routes share, and then an eighty percent rout chair. He
was all over the place. I think this could be
a Stephan Diggs game. Like, I think that he could.
Speaker 3 (26:43):
See a lot of looks out of the slot, and.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
Just in general inherently, you know, closer to the line
of scrimmage and being that reliable target for Drake May
and then Hunter Henry in the middle of the field.
I think is a really really intriguing player to watch
because Seattle's.
Speaker 3 (26:56):
Been kind of okay against tight.
Speaker 1 (26:59):
Ends this year, not tacular, and that's something that the
Patriots can do to kind of combat and beat this defense.
So you know, I would look at those three being
Steph Hundiggs in the passing game, Steph Hundiggs, Hunter Henry,
and then I guess you have to say Ramondre Stevens
because Travon Henderson played four snaps in the NFC Championship game.
(27:20):
Now do I think that New England would be smart
to And this is not a bye. I've taken the
l with Ramandre. He dominated the final month of the season.
He made me look like a moron. I get all that,
But I do think that this could like the hypothetical
Traveon Henderson right, It.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
Would be funny too if this was the week that
he went off after we discounted him after last week,
because that's kind of the story of the season.
Speaker 4 (27:44):
Yeah it is.
Speaker 1 (27:45):
Yeah, I mean, like I do think that Ramondre is
more than capable, but Treyvon Henderson objectively has more burst
and can career and generate big, bigger plays.
Speaker 3 (27:53):
Ramondre is a much more complete back right now.
Speaker 1 (27:56):
But I'm saying that Travion, you get him in space
and you allow for.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
Some of that to work and happen.
Speaker 1 (28:02):
I think it can beat it can win against this
defense in the way that Seattle plays.
Speaker 3 (28:06):
So you know, will they do that?
Speaker 1 (28:08):
I don't think that we can, like confidently if we
had like one, like if we had two games of
New England against Seattle and we could just see the
snap rates for Ramandre Stevenson and Travion, then I could
more confidently say this is the way that you know
we're gonna fel about Trayvon Henderson. I think the matchup
is there though, for receiving back to do some and
and do some damage against the Seattle defense, just based
(28:28):
on the fact that they were not great.
Speaker 3 (28:31):
Limiting underneath throws.
Speaker 1 (28:33):
And that's probably the way that this offense is going
to need to beat them because that pressure is going
to be in Drake May's face all game long more
than likely.
Speaker 3 (28:40):
So key takeaways. Key takeaways. Okay, I know I just
just spewed out a lot. All right, all right, I've.
Speaker 1 (28:46):
Been yeah, putting, like gathering data for like a week
and a half now, and I just kind of threw
it all out.
Speaker 2 (28:52):
There, just multiple times.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
Even yeah, yeah, yeah, oh my gosh, you guys. We're
gonna talk about Seattle tomorrow. I had to redo the
Seattle stuff on the plane on the way here because
I had some tech issues, which was really fun. But yeah,
key takeaways for New England in the offense right pass
heavy approach. Seattle is very very good at stopping the run,
the best in the league at doing so, and New
(29:13):
England is a top five team, and pass right over
expected given the spread, given the game, the probable game
script here, I would be shocked if New England is
not pass heavy in this game against Seattle. But then
when they're pass heavy, I'm expecting more underneath throws, lower
ad Dot throws to the backs. So Ramandre Stevenson, Treveon
Henderson the slot. I think they're gonna throw Stephan Diggs
(29:34):
in there a lot like this is not to me
much of a Kishan Boudi kind of game.
Speaker 3 (29:38):
This is more of a Stephan Diggs game.
Speaker 1 (29:40):
And then the tight end, so Hunter Henry obviously being
to go to maybe your boy Austin Hooper will get
some some love or something or some random tight end
like that.
Speaker 3 (29:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
But then but then Drake May, you know, I think
the final takeaway, he's gonna be pressured, he's gonna be sacked.
Speaker 3 (29:55):
It's it's you know, sets up that way for sure.
Speaker 1 (29:58):
I Mean, look in these games too, teams have to execute,
you know, like like we could. I think we're gonna
know pretty quickly in the first couple drives if New
England's offensive line is gonna be able to hold up
and be able to stop the pressure that Seattle's going
to be bringing on that front, because Seattle's obviously, like
I said, they're not They're not doing it through the
blitz very frequently, and so we're gonna know pretty early on.
Speaker 3 (30:18):
So yeah, I mean, like New England could just like
play well that's all.
Speaker 1 (30:24):
Right, Yeah, but what I would expect is a fairly
heavy pressured game for Drake May.
Speaker 3 (30:32):
I think he's gonna be sacked, but I think he's gonna.
Speaker 1 (30:34):
Scramble a lot, So we could see a lot of
rushing yards and a decent amount of rushing attempts.
Speaker 3 (30:38):
You know, this is also like it's the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (30:41):
There's always been this like sort of like, I mean,
people have done research on this too, but just this
is like general rule that quarterbacks throw their bodies around
more whenever the games are on the line. We see
this with Patrick Mahomes when he's in the playoffs. Every
single year, his rushing numbers go up because this is
it like if he throws his body around and gets hurt, well,
that's that's this the last game of the year. So
(31:02):
they probably are are more than okay doing that, trying
to win a Super Bowl because these football players are
built differently.
Speaker 2 (31:08):
All Right, So let's say that let's say that Patriots
play well, yeah, let's say that they win. Okay, but
let's say that you have to pick an MVP not
named Drake May. That's a little bit under the radar,
a little bit of a sneaky play.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
Okay, I think you could go.
Speaker 1 (31:24):
Look, I've mentioned the running backs are interesting, but I
don't think they're going to go running back here because
the run game is not going to be solid enough
because Seattle can start to run so well. So then
you look at the receivers, you could go digs. I'm
going to lean more towards Hunter Henry. I think Hunter
Henry could be an X factor in this game.
Speaker 3 (31:42):
Uh, you know there's.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
A matchup to exploit. So yeah, I'm gonna say my
sneaky MVP for the Patriots is Hunter Henry.
Speaker 4 (31:49):
There you go.
Speaker 2 (31:50):
I mean they sneaky play again. This is not this
is not a a betting show, So don't you know
lock it in.
Speaker 1 (31:57):
But if you I mean, if you did, it's a
super Bowl and people are listening to whether the podcast, theater,
on YouTube, whatever. Yeah, like it's a super Bowl, like
you can have some fun and entertain yourselves with like
some ren and if it's like I just know that
I'm not a betting expert.
Speaker 3 (32:11):
That's I'm a fantasy football yeah analyst.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (32:14):
I like the sneaky play though.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
And another speaking of sneaky plays, another sneaky play that
has presented himself many times over the course of his
career just due to his position is coming up.
Speaker 4 (32:25):
Next.
Speaker 2 (32:25):
We've got Josh Johnson talking with us here on the
Late Round Show. All right, we are live with maybe
one of the mascots for the Late Round QB. It
is Josh Johnson. Josh last year with the Washington Commanders
and Josh you have been on a few teams in
your lifetime a lot. Yeah, And we were just talking
(32:49):
before before we went live, just about how how you
keep your body Like your body is an investment basically
for sure.
Speaker 5 (32:58):
Yeah, I mean, like the body is everything because it's
like I think the best way I can put it
into an example, it's.
Speaker 4 (33:07):
Like a car, you know what I mean.
Speaker 5 (33:09):
You know, the great cars are great with the age,
and if you don't take you can keep a car
from like we into the twenty twenty six. A car
from the seventies can work really well right now if
you take care of it every day. Yeah, And I
think that's the way the body is. You know, it's
the engine that needs fuel and it also needs proper
you know, it needs your WD four. You know, you
got to really keep the joints warmed up and stretching
(33:30):
is important. So that's probably the most thing, the most
I spend time.
Speaker 4 (33:36):
On right now is make sure my body is proper.
Speaker 1 (33:38):
Let's let's let me ask you about the position that
you play, right because obviously the biggest position in the game.
What do you think an average fan just doesn't understand
about what you do.
Speaker 5 (33:49):
They think we just come up. They just think we
show up in practice and go home. They think our
life is We think it's like high school. Oh you
got three hour practice and you do nothing else. My
days are in season or literally from six thirty until
I fall asleep.
Speaker 4 (34:04):
Literally, like I'm in a building six thirty.
Speaker 5 (34:07):
We have a walk through at six thirty, and then
you go your first official.
Speaker 4 (34:11):
Meeting is at eight o'clock.
Speaker 5 (34:13):
And know, everything prior to aid is optional, but you know,
as a quarterback, you gotta do these things to be prepared.
Speaker 4 (34:18):
And so I walk out of the building.
Speaker 5 (34:20):
Maybe six thirty seven every day, and then I go
home and watch film because I'd rather watch film on
an opponent in my living room because it's kind of
like my sanctuary versus just being in the building and
watching film because I feel like I've been in the
building all day, and literally sometimes I may fall asleep
eleven thirty twelve and then getting up and doing again
the next day.
Speaker 3 (34:39):
Yeah. Yeah, I mean, like.
Speaker 1 (34:42):
Your positioning and you being having been a backup for
a while now, like what's the toughest thing that you
have to kind of mentally prepare for and physically knowing
that in any given moment this year, right this past year,
any given moment you step in, you're is it the
preparation you think that later you can't look because it's
like we see a lot of these backup quarterbacks go
in and out right like like they'll be a backup
(35:04):
for three years in the league and then they're done.
But you've been around for so long and there's got
to be some secret sauce there.
Speaker 5 (35:09):
I think the sauce for me is literally like holding
myself to a standard that like it kind of is
borderline crazy.
Speaker 4 (35:17):
You gotta be a little bit crazy. You gotta be
a little.
Speaker 5 (35:19):
Crazy because you gotta you gotta trick your mind to
show up every day mentally like you're gonna play yeah,
because and I think for me it was those moments
when I did get to play, it really showed me
like like all right, it's like wow, Like bro, you're
gonna get in here and everything's gonna be moving really fast.
Speaker 4 (35:38):
You're not gonna really understand what they're gonna do.
Speaker 5 (35:41):
So you gotta you gotta be so prepared to where
you can slow your mind down. You want your mind
to really try to be slow so you can actually
just breathe and just play a game because once, like
typically I after the first two or three series, it
becomes football. But those two or three series you first
come in, it's so important because everybody looking like what
is he gonna do?
Speaker 4 (36:00):
What's gonna happen? It's going to happen. And if you're
going in the fourth quarter, now you got to make
something happen.
Speaker 5 (36:03):
So for me, I'm trying to come in there and
literally bring a com to myself first so I can
be normal as possible, even though I know it's not
going to be normal, and then be able to just
make sure that everybody around me can say, all right,
let's go play.
Speaker 4 (36:17):
He got it. Yeah, that's literally all I'm focused on.
Speaker 3 (36:19):
Yeah, I mean that's free mentality. Yeah, it's gotta be
Do you do you meditate it all?
Speaker 4 (36:24):
I meditate every day? Take you to the comapp?
Speaker 3 (36:26):
Does that?
Speaker 5 (36:26):
Does that?
Speaker 4 (36:27):
Is that?
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Do you think that's like a huge for sure?
Speaker 5 (36:30):
Like it was funny because my cousin Marshaan, you know Marshan, Ye,
like when he was at he's at the height of
his career. I used to always asking my cous like,
how do you like run through that? How do you
run through the sea gap and don't blink? He's like, cause,
I just breathe. He's like, I take a deep breath
before every play, and I literally just it centers me
(36:50):
to do my job and then react. And literally when
I when he said that, I just pursued it and
then it you know, I was like, Okay, I found
the comap. I meditated every day, do my tea minutes
and I understand that. I understand like the zen state
I need to be in. Once I reached that. Once
I reached that state, I'm like, I'm good, let's go
do that.
Speaker 2 (37:09):
Marshawn Lynch, your cousin. I want to know, did y'all
have a race?
Speaker 3 (37:14):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (37:14):
He beat me when we was little, but I beat
him when we got older.
Speaker 3 (37:18):
I mean he does not. He's got a little bit
more bulk to him.
Speaker 4 (37:20):
Now, don't tell him then.
Speaker 2 (37:22):
Yeah, you're in a four or five three. I mean
that's pretty good. My question is is this four or
five three that was that was a little bit ago, right,
so you know we're on as a quarterback there that's
blazing right exactly. So here's my question though, because now
you see everybody kind.
Speaker 3 (37:38):
Of fine tuning themselves.
Speaker 2 (37:39):
You know it's a game. You know they are gamifying
the numbers. You think you could run faster than a
four or five three if you kind of knew what
you know now, then.
Speaker 5 (37:48):
For sure, I feel like, like just the technique of
getting off and it's understanding the drive face for the
first two yards. Like the worst thing about me when
I was coming out, I did not I had a
horrible get off, Like I did not know how to
I didn't know how to start a race. I knew
I can make up because I had a long stride
and I had long legs, But literally, like right now,
my get off will people probably be a lot better
(38:08):
because I've heard the coaching points for eighteen years, Like
I've hear our coaches and I literally they don't think
I'll be paying attention, but I literally listen to what
they be saying.
Speaker 4 (38:16):
I'm okay, that makes a lot of sense.
Speaker 5 (38:18):
And so I think now I don't know if my
back end would be the same, yeah, but my first
team would be faster.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
So you you mentioned obviously been around the league for
a really long time, but you've also seen evolutions of
the league, like when you first entered, a lot of
like I mean, you had you had a lot of
like like fullbacks out back there with you.
Speaker 3 (38:36):
You had a bunch of like two running back sets,
and then like the McVeigh era kind of happens.
Speaker 1 (38:40):
You get a lot more eleven personnel, You get a
lot of these these spread offenses. But recently we're seeing
more of the heavy personnel.
Speaker 4 (38:47):
Come coming back.
Speaker 3 (38:47):
Yeah, this coming is that?
Speaker 1 (38:48):
Is that something that like you're consciously thinking about and
see like it is it league wide? Like does everyone
just like know that this is coming and happening, because
it's it's my from from my I'll say amateurized, but
like from my perspective, a lot of it is just
the reaction to what defenses are, how defense are now built?
Right for sure, they're they're they're thinner and faster and
all that kind of stuff.
Speaker 4 (39:08):
I think you hit it right on the now.
Speaker 5 (39:10):
First off, I think this is a product where we're
seeing the game trans form back to the old ways
because the pass rushers are just like ridiculous, Like they
literally are two hundred and ninety pounds running walked by here.
Speaker 4 (39:24):
It's like the biggest human man.
Speaker 3 (39:26):
I'm like, how couldn't any human being exactly.
Speaker 4 (39:28):
And they can't.
Speaker 5 (39:29):
They just they just try to shield them, you know
what I mean. And you got to you gotta deal
with those guys. And then he just one guy. Then
you got TJ. On the other side, you got high Smith,
then you got Herbert like and they literally sending five
guys who really just want to get sexs because that's
how they get paid. So so like seeing the game
like go from under center when I first came in
(39:51):
the league, because that's how I didn't. I never threw
a quick game. I never threw a slam route in
the gun until I got to the NFL.
Speaker 4 (39:57):
I didn't in college. We didn't do that.
Speaker 5 (39:58):
We took three steps and we threw a slam route,
and so I had to learn how to do that.
So see the game like go from under center to
spread world when RG three and Cap and Rustling, all
those guys came in the league and transformed the game
to now see it go back. Like I joke all
the time with the youngsters because they be thinking they're
doing something new. I'll be like, bro, this has been
(40:19):
done already, now it's coming back, and they'd be like, oh,
we don't want to play that way. I said, you
got to play that way because these pass rushers are
just elite.
Speaker 4 (40:26):
They're the best athletes on the field.
Speaker 5 (40:28):
And I think in order to protect the lineman, in
order for the run to me to protect your quarterbacks,
because I think if you're dropping your quarterback fifty times
a game in the.
Speaker 4 (40:36):
Shotgun, it's a different element.
Speaker 5 (40:38):
But for a linebacker and a safety, when the quarterback's
under center and a running back seven and a half
yards deep in the die, it's a different mentality. He
has a seven yard head start to get to me,
versus he's running sideways and his shoulders not square, and
so the mentality is different. And I think it's smart
by the coaches to be able to bring the old
ways back because it's a.
Speaker 4 (40:58):
Grind on the defense.
Speaker 5 (41:00):
And I think, now now you know, to spread, everybody
wants to score a lot of points in its great
and looks flashy, but it doesn't run the defense out.
And I think what we're seeing now, we're starting to
find that balance again within the league of grinding the
defense so that in the fourth quarter, those past rushers
are a little bit normalized, you know what I mean,
So the quarterback can drop back and see the defense
clean and get completions.
Speaker 1 (41:18):
How difficult though, has it also been with the too
high and teams running that as frequently as they are
with these safeties just back like the splash players just
aren't existing nearly as much anymore. So are you you
as a quarterback, how frustrating is it that you have
to just go to you know, just run like a
five yard out and.
Speaker 3 (41:35):
You're just like, that's what we got to do here.
Speaker 5 (41:36):
So for me, I don't really care because I played
in the old ways, the old ways that was normal.
Speaker 4 (41:41):
The new ways.
Speaker 5 (41:42):
It's funny hearing defensive coaches walk into like I played
for some defensive coaches and I will get up there
and they'll get a game plan and say, well, I
don't really care if they rush for one hundred and
fifty yards.
Speaker 4 (41:52):
I'm like, what right?
Speaker 5 (41:53):
Like, I wouldn't have never in my life Money Kiffin
and my rookie year would have went crazy if he
gave up one hundred and fifty yards rushing. Yeah, they like,
we don't care if they're restaur one hundred and fifty.
They're not gonna stick to it.
Speaker 4 (42:03):
They want it. They're gonna they're gonna try to throw bombs.
Speaker 5 (42:05):
They're gonna take shape, they're gonna take shots, and when
they take shots, we're gonna we're gonna intercept them. And
for me, I'm like, well, this is kind of how
I was trained. Like me, all I look at it.
If I get four yards, I get a first down,
and I keep matriculating down the field.
Speaker 4 (42:17):
Eventually you're gonna have to get.
Speaker 3 (42:18):
Me what I want exactly.
Speaker 4 (42:19):
And once you get me what I want, we're gonna
have our way. So that's just kind of how I
look at Yeah.
Speaker 5 (42:23):
Thoughts on David blow As shout out to b blou Man, big,
big shout out to him. Excited for him. I'm excited
for his opportunity. He works really hard, he's a student
of the game. He's very detailed, very detailed, And me
and him got real close because when Tavda left, he
became our quarterback coach and so when I was playing,
me and him work literally worked side by side. So
(42:45):
I think he's gonna be awesome. I think he's ready,
and I think he's gonna be great for Jaden. I
think he's gonna be great for the team, and I'm
looking forward to see his opportunity.
Speaker 1 (42:53):
Did you think that, like there's been this shift in
these backup quarterbacks like rising up the.
Speaker 3 (42:57):
Ranks quickly, like very fascinating across the league. You have
Davis Webb now.
Speaker 5 (43:02):
Doing like shout out to dragons, young Dragon, Dragon Web
It was my I play with him in New York.
Speaker 3 (43:07):
Yeah nice. And I mean even like you know, Scott
Tolzen didn't he didn't take.
Speaker 4 (43:10):
It, Scottie and San franc.
Speaker 3 (43:15):
But all these all these backup quarterbacks are just sky like.
Speaker 1 (43:19):
Do you think that it is the sort of cerebral
like the fact that you guys have to be prepared
in a way that other players aren't prepared. And you
guys just I mean the bottom line, you guys just
know ball more than than the other player.
Speaker 5 (43:32):
All three of those names, all the three of those
guys you just named, they literally students of the game.
Like they can they can give it to you from
a quarterbacks perspective, they can give it to you from
a coach's perspective, from what the receivers need to do,
tight ends, running backs, et cetera. And I think, you know,
I'm glad the league is doing this because we need
more teachers of the game. I think in the best
teachers of the game is guys that being able to
(43:53):
actually be in inexperience it.
Speaker 4 (43:54):
Because it's one thing. It's one thing. It's one thing.
Speaker 5 (43:57):
We call it clicking clicker pimping, like we it's one
thing to be able to actually sit up there and
wind it's slowing down and be able to say, Okay,
why didn't you do this? But one thing is about
the guys who played. They have that they have that
discernment to understand, like, I see why you did that.
I see that I saw the three technique get beat.
I saw the three technique beat the right guard and
flashed in front of your eyes even though he didn't
(44:18):
hit you. So I understand why you had to why
you had to change your drop or why you moved
your eyes that way. And I think it's so necessary
now because the league has gotten younger. You know, most
of the teams are a lot younger than what they
used to be. So you need guys in there who
actually experienced it, who can teach it and also had
that discernment and be like, I understand why you did
that because everybody everything is a reaction and you know,
(44:39):
you know, now we're so critical of the game.
Speaker 4 (44:40):
You like, why didn't he do this? Why didn't he
do that?
Speaker 5 (44:43):
And I tell my fan, I tell exactly like I
tell I tell my family all the time. Like you
guys have been seen. You guys have been watching football
from a lens of seeing it. Played it the right
way for cut y'all watching on Sunday, I said, but
you got to put in perspective. This is second year
in the league, his first time being out there. This
is all new for him. What's owed to you as
(45:03):
a fan, it's new for him. So something that may
seem routine not routine for him. He got to go
through those limps just like everybody else did. It's not
like we got Tom Brady's just sitting around here forty
five everywhere.
Speaker 3 (45:14):
Yeah, yeah, you know what I mean. It's definitely the
exception for sure.
Speaker 2 (45:18):
All right, real quick, before we go, favorite wide receiver,
you're thrown too. Ooh ooh, it's fourth down, it's fourth
and gold.
Speaker 4 (45:29):
Oh my god.
Speaker 2 (45:29):
From the twelve.
Speaker 3 (45:33):
You get a lot of choices.
Speaker 5 (45:34):
I got a lot of choices, and I got them
in different eras too, Like I played with Odell before
the injuries.
Speaker 4 (45:40):
Yeah, I play with a look.
Speaker 3 (45:42):
If you want to say, Pete Odell. That's very accepted.
Speaker 2 (45:45):
Like Odell in his prime.
Speaker 4 (45:46):
Will make somebody man.
Speaker 5 (45:50):
If it's fourth and twelve on the red zone, yeah,
I mean I need a high target who can catch anything.
I'm gonna go with a young AJ Green Cincinnati because
AJ literally can catch anything, oh my god. Like and
he was like a center fielder, like he could put it.
He could track a ball, put his head down, speed up,
and retrack it. AJ Green was easy. Like AJ go
(46:11):
out there running Fae real quick. I'm gonna throw a
back short. There's gonna be a touchdown. So I'm gonna say,
but no disrespect to none of the receivers I played with,
because they was awesome. But it was four and twelve
from the red zone, so I had to go out
the six four target.
Speaker 2 (46:23):
All right, Well, thanks Josh, really appreciate you being all.
Speaker 5 (46:26):
Thanks for having appreciate it. Thank you all for educating
on fantasy football because I don't understand.
Speaker 2 (46:34):
All right, So that was the interview with Josh. Dude,
I'm gonna come Josh because he was awesome. He's he's
a friend now.
Speaker 1 (46:41):
Yeah, so people didn't see like we were talking to
him for like five minutes before five to get him
to like his workouts and like your easy to get
this on record.
Speaker 2 (46:53):
Yeah, it was fun.
Speaker 3 (46:55):
It was awesome. He was a super super cool dude,
but it was it was fun.
Speaker 1 (46:58):
Like that's the kind of thing that I've noticed with
with being here in Radio row and like experiencing the
Super Bowl is just like I want to just talk
to these players. Yes, we play fantasy football, and like
it's very easy to not think of them as people sometimes,
right because that's the game that we play, and no
one's at fault for that's just like naturally how we
play this game. We're looking at the kind of production
(47:19):
they're giving us, the numbers that they're giving us, and
so it is it is really nice to just because
we don't get this opportunity to just sit down and
talk to players and so hopefully you guys like enjoyed
the questions we asked and kind of the insight that
he gave. I thought he gave some awesome answers, but
also like just know that like you know, before and
after and such, like he was awesome.
Speaker 3 (47:35):
It was great to talk to him.
Speaker 2 (47:36):
Yeah, and tomorrow we've got some wide receivers that we'll
talk to, including one who is just rising up the
draft boards, and another who crushed it last year's rookie season.
So stick around for that JJ. Do you have any
closing thoughts?
Speaker 3 (47:50):
No, man, I'm just thankful that we're here and hopefully
everyone enjoyed.
Speaker 1 (47:54):
I know, it's a little bit of a different show
and a different format and stuff, and things will be
back to normal next week and all that all that stuff.
Speaker 3 (48:00):
You know, I did the by candidate's episode earlier this week.
Speaker 1 (48:02):
But yeah, I mean, like, hopefully you guys are enjoying it,
and you guys can can feel our excitement, you know
through the show that like this is cool.
Speaker 3 (48:11):
Man. Yeah, it's pretty cool. It's cool.
Speaker 2 (48:12):
It's pretty cool having everyone around us.
Speaker 3 (48:15):
It's cool.
Speaker 2 (48:15):
So shout out to iHeart and the folks at the
NFL radio or podcast network on behalf of JJ, I'm David.
We'll see you next time here on the late round
Fantasy football show piece. All right,
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