2025 Mid-Year Housing Market Update - 361

Mortgage rates are dropping — so why are buyers still stuck on the sidelines? This episode breaks down the latest market update with July 2025 data, unpacking how inflation, job reports, and interest rate speculation are shaping first-time buyer behavior.

In this episode, David delivers a critical market update recorded just after the July 4th weekend in 2025. Despite a notable drop in mortgage rates — the fifth consecutive week of declines — most buyers still aren’t making moves. Why? The answers lie in economic signals that go beyond interest rates.

You’ll learn how job market strength and inflation fears are keeping the Federal Reserve from cutting rates, despite public pressure. Plus, David breaks down how tariffs and the PCE index (the Fed’s favorite inflation tracker) are working against rate relief. With clarity and candor, he explains why rate drops aren’t enough to reboot buyer confidence — and why timing your purchase based on Fed headlines may be a risky move.

First-time homebuyers will walk away with a clearer picture of what’s happening behind the scenes — and why understanding market conditions is more important than listening to outdated advice from friends or family.

Quote

“Mortgage rates have fallen for the fifth straight week. Buyers aren’t budging though — they’re still waiting.” – David Sidoni

Highlights

• Freddie Mac reports the biggest one-week drop in rates since March 2025
• Fed rate cuts unlikely after strong June jobs report and inflation uncertainty
• PCE inflation index still above target, with tariffs poised to raise prices further
• Why first-time buyers should stop trying to “time the market”
• CME FedWatch projections: July cut odds drop to 5%, September cut down to 67%
• Clear explanation of how job market strength delays rate relief

Referenced Episodes

279 - New Build vs Resale Houses for First Time Homebuyers

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David Sidoni, the "How to Buy a Home Guy," is a seasoned real estate professional and consumer advocate with two decades of experience helping first-time homebuyers navigate the real estate market. His podcast, "How to Buy a Home," is a trusted resource for anyone