Kafe w/Daryl Lies 6/19/26 3-5pm Gene Graner eventually takes over!

KFYR Kafe w/Daryl Lies, 3-5pm on KFYR 550

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good Friday afternoon. Welcome to the k Fire Cafe. There
will be here on k Fire five fifty ninety nine
point seven FM and the free irt radio app. Free
never sounded so good, downloaded, take up wherever you go.
You never have to miss a moment of the k
Fire Cafe each and every weekday afternoon three to five o'clock.

(00:20):
And on this fabulous Friday afternoon, we have a fabulous
wind at least in Carrington, North Dakota, where I'm at today,
Foster County Fair. Yeah, I'll have the racing pigs going
here later on here today four to forty five. In fact,
so the last half hour today we're going to be
joined by Gene Greener and he's going to do some

(00:41):
market updates and some market discussion. So if you have
a question for him on that, you can give give
a call in at that time and he'll be covering
that last half hour today. But the rest of the day,
you know, we'll have for all of you out there
seven zero one two five eight zero five fifty eight

(01:01):
eight zero five fifty give us a call, let us
know what you have to say. In fact, I think
we have a listener on the line. Tim welcome to
the cafe. What do you have to say?

Speaker 2 (01:14):
Well, yeah, the wind is blown down here, a good
day to drive them? Hey, all right, yeah, But I
just wanted to continue on talking a little bit more
about the jed X power line or the hearing in

(01:34):
front of the Supreme Court or an argument there's going
to be this next Tuesday, on the twenty third, two
five pm. People might want to tune in and listen
to that and hear what our attorney has to say
about how the state of North Dakota operates, how they
don't even abide by their own laws they make. And

(01:58):
now we find out that we the landowners here in
the area, if we are forced eventually to have to
deal with this power line, we're going to have liability
forced on us also by a law that was passed

(02:20):
last session Senate Bill twenty three thirty nine that takes
away the responsibility of liability for these corporations and puts
it on the landowner in case there's wildfires or anything
caused by so called act of God, insentences or whatever.
The landowner now accepts the responsibility for that. And then

(02:45):
they tell us that we're well compensated for this line well,
would you call ten cents an acre per day? Well,
compensated over a ninety nine year perpetual and the liability
insurance is going to cost you twenty five times that

(03:09):
to protect your to now have to protect yourself if
you can even buy insurance to protect yourself.

Speaker 1 (03:19):
So did what did twenty three thirty nine do exactly?

Speaker 2 (03:26):
Well, uh, you remember the wildfire incidents up in the
northwestern part of North Dakota here several years ago.

Speaker 1 (03:33):
Right yep.

Speaker 2 (03:37):
So those utility companies are liable for that that fire
because electric lines went down and started those fires. Well,
if you remember what happened in California, the wildfires out
there put Pacific Light and Power out of business. They

(03:59):
had four team billion dollars worth of claims against them.
They just simply filed bankruptcy and went out of business.
So the utilities companies here in the state, if you
look up that bill, you'll see that the very first
issue that they deal with is limiting the liability for

(04:23):
the corporations. There's no talk about who accepts liability after that.
The poor landowner, he's just stuck with it. And what
do you think a third party is going to do
when they find out, well, they can't go after the
power line company, They're going to go after the landowner.
So that's their only resort.

Speaker 1 (04:47):
Yeah, So when when you talk about the the eminent
domain process, which is what they will eventually use, the

(05:11):
precedent will have been said with what they're paying other
people that have willingly went along with this, So you
won't even have a lot of negotiation power and claim
on that eminent domain. That'll differentiate from that, probably, will you, Tim,
if I understand that.

Speaker 2 (05:30):
Correct, Well, the going rate for land commercial or industrial land,
and that's what you could consider this industrial, light industrial
whatever you know, apply digital page sixty five thousand dollars
an acre for land. You know, we don't want this
land if they come here in eminent domain US, I

(05:52):
don't want that land. I don't want any part of
that land. They're gonna have to buy that land.

Speaker 3 (05:59):
From us.

Speaker 2 (06:01):
If we if we don't, if we allow allow or
allow ourselves or put are put in the position to
where we have to sign those easements. And you have
you ought to see the jeddak Uh and that's a

(06:21):
real piece of work, I'll tell you. But if we're
forced to sign that, we have now exposed all our
assets everything.

Speaker 1 (06:35):
Well, and that's what I was wondering. You know, if
if through the eminent domain process a person can change
where that any of those terms in that easement, or
if they stay the same as what other willing landowners
already signed up for.

Speaker 2 (06:54):
Well, there was a gentleman and his brother that had
a contract drawn up by an attorney and they presented
it to otter Tail Power Company for a negotiation with them.
Otter Tail laughed at him, sent it back, We're not
we can't use this contract. We were not interested in that.
We have a contract you can work with that, take

(07:17):
it or leave it. But we're told that we're the
ones that are unreasonable. Jason Wires, the representative for Ottertail,
sat in front of the PSC and constantly over and
over told us and told them we're unreasonable. We've never

(07:38):
had a reasonable hearing but in front of anybody.

Speaker 1 (07:44):
Well, and that's what your lawsuit pertains to Tim correct.

Speaker 2 (07:50):
Well it it doesn't. It more pertains to the U.
The legalities of how this power line was was granted
a certificate of convenience and public necessity. That's what the
particulars of our case deal has been uh at this.

Speaker 1 (08:14):
At this time, Okay, Yeah, because of the I mean
the process and the procedures. Like you said, there was
never the formal hearings that normally go with this or.

Speaker 2 (08:28):
The township never the townships were never notified. And I'd
like to know how they're going to eminent Domaine townships
because there are five townships that refuse to give them
a conditional use permit.

Speaker 1 (08:47):
Yeah, well that's going to be the the interesting aspect
of this, how they are going to try and demonstrate
a public use rather than just the private use of
what we all know that line is being run for
is because of the data center down there in Ellendale's.

(09:08):
So it's it's interesting.

Speaker 2 (09:10):
I'm are you. A congresswoman stood in Bismarck on me
on on May the eleventh and told me from my
face that I never worked on the Jeddak's power line
that case, I never had anything to do with that. Well,
her signature happens to be on the orders a Convenience,

(09:33):
Public necessity, live.

Speaker 4 (09:36):
Witness to it.

Speaker 1 (09:38):
But if she told us that, yeah, well that's interesting.
So Tim, I'm up against the break here. Thanks for
calling in, Thanks for sharing your voice here today appreciate it,
looking forward to hearing the details of the oral arguments
next Tuesday on the Supreme Court issue that you guys

(10:00):
are are taken to that level, So we keep us informed,
keep us up to date, and we'll visit with you
down the road and have a great weekend.

Speaker 2 (10:09):
To him, yeah you too, have fun, all.

Speaker 1 (10:14):
Right, and I'll be back with more of the cafe
after this. Welcome back to the Kaypy your cafe, Darryl
lis here on day fire five fifty. Happy to have
you here on a fabulous Friday afternoon, and on this
fabulous Friday afternoon, the first time this week we get
to visit with him.

Speaker 2 (10:32):
CJ.

Speaker 1 (10:32):
Dak Diesel. How are you doing, sir?

Speaker 5 (10:35):
Oh, I'm doing pretty good.

Speaker 2 (10:37):
Darryl.

Speaker 5 (10:37):
You're not supposed to tell anybody that everybody's gonna think
I was out on vacation this week, you know, And
I don't want anybody to think that, because I actually wasn't,
you know.

Speaker 1 (10:46):
So you know, I did tell everyone that you were
supposedly working and busy, so.

Speaker 4 (10:55):
And then you did air quotes while you were saying it, right.

Speaker 1 (10:58):
Yeah, right right. Luckily it's not video tasks. They didn't
see me roll they didn't see me roll my eyes.

Speaker 4 (11:09):
No, true, true, that would have been bad for my image.
You know, I got to keep my image up here,
so right, yeah, right, well that's funny, but no, uh yeah,
I don't know, I guess, uh. I was trying to
think of what we should talk about. We haven't talked

(11:30):
about the you know, the oil bypass systems in a while,
so you know, it's one of those things, you know,
I want to bring that up again. You know, it's
always gay. Well I always get kickbacks on that, like, oh,
it's just easier to change oil. And you know, and
I do agree to a certain extent that it's easier

(11:51):
to change oil than to go and trust a system,
but a system that's.

Speaker 5 (11:55):
Proven itself over and over and over again that you know,
if you actually run it and change your filters and
then top your oil off, your oil is actually going
to stay cleaner than actually just changing it because when
you when you change it, you got to realize that
your oil keeps getting dirtier and dirtier and dirtier, and

(12:15):
then you change it before it gets really bad for
your engine, and then you just keep doing it over
and over and over again. The idea behind the oil
bypass system, which is so great is it keeps your
oil basically and almost that in that almost new condition
one hundred percent.

Speaker 4 (12:34):
Of the time. That's the idea of it. So it's
you know, when.

Speaker 5 (12:37):
You can run oil that's like new oil, like I said,
one hundred percent of the time, that that's the beauty
of it. And then also you can run expensive oil
without having to actually, you know, drain it out and
look at it. You know, you look at the cost
of it and say, well, the oil's twenty bucks a
gallon or even higher, let's say forty bucks a gallon,

(13:02):
and you know, it gets expensive to change forty dollars
a gallon oil for the expensive oil we're here. With
the oil bypass system, it's easier to justify it. And
now you're running expensive oil in and you're not dumping
it at every ten twenty thousand miles. So and it's
also proven itself. There are videos on the internet to
where guys have even pulled six seven powerstroke engines apart

(13:26):
that have a million miles on them and they're running
bypass oil systems and the engines literally have like next
to nowhere on them at a million miles and that
is crazy to hear. So it's one of those things,
you know, if you're interested in this, you know, whether
it's for your your truck, your late duty pickup truck,

(13:48):
your tractors, construction equipment, farm equipment, whatever it is, definitely
give us a call. You know, we can, I can
visit with you about it if you want more information,
can get you more information, or just you know, give
you the information over the phone. And we have had
guys out there, even with John Dear equipment, to where

(14:09):
their soot levels in their oil are just out of control,
and they put the bypass oil system on it and
they get everything back down to where it should be.
And not only that, it cleans the engines up. And
that's you know, just the beauty of the beauty of it.
And it still reminds me, Daryl, you still need to

(14:29):
get one on your pickup, you know.

Speaker 6 (14:31):
I do.

Speaker 4 (14:32):
I have I think about a while ago.

Speaker 1 (14:36):
I was just thinking, I'm going it's a good thing
of bringing this up because I've got to get an
appointment made to get that done.

Speaker 5 (14:45):
Well, you know, it's one of those things. Tomorrow's always
a new day, right Darryl. You know, we don't need
well on yesterday, tomorrow's a new day.

Speaker 1 (14:56):
Yeah, well, let yesterday kick us in the butt to
move us forward for tomorrow, right.

Speaker 4 (15:01):
Yep, exactly exactly, but yeah, so yeah, if you want
any of that information or even information on our great additives,
or if you want to purchase them, you can give
me a call. The number here is seven zero one
two five eight five zero one one. You can also
stop in the store. You can also look us up.

Speaker 5 (15:23):
At at Dakdiesel dot com and if you want to
email me, you can emailil me It's CJ at Dakdiesel
dot com and seek quickly.

Speaker 1 (15:36):
What are your three You got three dealers out there
too with that additive go run through them again.

Speaker 5 (15:41):
I yeah. We have Todd Mose at Mose Repair his
shops in Kintyre, so he has the product there, but
he also has a smaller shop in Napoleon. His son
works at the shop in Napoleon, so you can stop
at either of those locations and buy it. And then
we also got Tom out at Western Hose and Dickinson

(16:02):
that carries it, and Paul at Underwood Farm supply up
at an Underwood, so you can vince some of them
or come and see me.

Speaker 1 (16:11):
Yeah, a lot of different options there. You don't necessarily
have to drive into Bismarck, but if you want to,
they can do that, or they can give a call
or draw on the web page and order there also.
And CJ, yep, I've got to get some time. I
gotta figure out I gotta call you and figure out
a time to get that oil bypass system put on
that Dura maximime. So CJ, you have a great weekend

(16:34):
and we'll talk again next week.

Speaker 4 (16:36):
Okay, Tell good Darryl, thank you so much. Have a
good weekend.

Speaker 1 (16:40):
All right. That's CJ with Dak Diesel seven zero one
two five eighty five zero one one is his number.
I'll be back with more after this. Welcome back to
the k Fire Daffa on k Fire five fifty ninety
nine points seven FM and the three iHeartRadio app Free
never sounded so good and happy to have it. Everyone
with us today on a fabulous Friday afternoon here on

(17:04):
kate Fire five fifty, going into hopefully a wonderful weekend
for everybody out there. A lot of county fairs going
on out there this weekend, and hopefully everyone out there
is if there's one in your community, you get a
chance to get out to it and support that county

(17:25):
wide showcase an event. A lot of four each and
FFA activities happen at those county fairs, so a lot
of things to support there with the local youth going
on at those at the same time. Seven zero one
two five eight zero five fifty eight zero five fifty

(17:46):
the number to call today bottom half of the four
o'clock hour. Eugene Grainer will join us and do some
market talk and discussion. He's gonna run out the last
half hour of the day today when we get to
that point for me so that I can go run
some pigs in a circle out in this wind at
the Foster County fair Man. It is a brutal wind

(18:10):
out there today. And so anyway, that's like Tim said,
dry a little hay out. Yeah, it's the temperatures alone
haven't been positive to dry and hey, but they add
a little bit of wind to it. That should do it.
Hopefully the wind stays in the wind row or the
hay stays in the wind row, though that doesn't get

(18:30):
wind blown away. That's the other thing that that's the
next thing that you worry about but yeah, give us
a call seven zero one two five eight zero five
fifty eight hundred two eight zero five fifty. So the
you know, there's there's always interesting things I learned when
I go to these communities that have the fairs in them.

(18:52):
In that and in the in the paper here in
Carrington this week they're talking about the schools not going
to do rural picked up of every kid with bussing
this year. They're gonna have bussing pickup points out in
the communities, out across the community and you got to

(19:15):
take your kid to this bussing pickup point. I don't
know if it's a done deal or not yet, but
that's what they're talking about doing anyways. And so I
visit with a few people, and so this this is
the question I have, This is what brings this is
where I bring it to. Should we have busting at all?
That I mean, if if, if the bussing, if we

(19:40):
gotta have pickup points, should we have bussing at all?
Should school just say no, everyone's on their own to
get their kid to school, because you know, years and
years ago, I rode the bus. I rode the bus
for well, I don't know hour and twenty minutes a

(20:01):
day or sometimes more. And I just I wonder if
you know, and and you know, town kids didn't have
a bus. Now they pick up. Now they have a
town bus route and pick up the town kids. And
so are we are we to the are we just

(20:25):
over the front of our skis with providing bussing at all?
Or is that an important thing to provide? I'm asking
a question, I am I'm wanting to get some input there.
They say. Part of it is is they say that
running over these gravel roads are hard on their buses,

(20:48):
and this or that might be, but they first waste
a lot of money on other things. You would think
they could prioritize money. But then part of it is
they say they can't find bus drivers, okay, which is
undoubtedly a problem. I think that's a problem everywhere. But
so that brings me to that question, and are we

(21:14):
are we prioritizing money correctly in education? I say that
I'm in many instances we are not. But I don't know.

Speaker 6 (21:26):
I'm just.

Speaker 1 (21:29):
I think it's one of the things to really consider
right and and ask the hard questions. I don't know.
I'm wanting to know. Seven zero one two five eight
zero five fifty. We have been on the line. Welcome
to the cafe. What do you have to say?

Speaker 7 (21:48):
Well, Darld, you're talking about bussing the pickup pick up heights.
But oh, I suppose sixty eight years ago or maybe longer,
some school districts that nopebot thing and they just paid
the parents a h a perdem or mileage feed, so
they essentially carpooled and shared the shared the mileage fee.

(22:13):
And UH I kept telling our local skill board that
with the expensive buses and the hard difficulty in finding
UH drivers, I'm saying that sooner than later, they need.

Speaker 2 (22:26):
To go back to that.

Speaker 7 (22:27):
So to go back to that practice, what do you think.

Speaker 1 (22:32):
You bring up that? That? You bring up a very
interesting UH discussion point and concept there, because that is
I've heard other people talk about this. I forgot to
bring that up. I should have brought that up. So
I'm glad you called in of of that option, because
that is that's an interesting option. I think there might

(22:56):
be something to that, there might be some value to that,
and maybe that gets rid of that overhead of that
bus expense. My only question is is if they get
rid of the overhead of the cost of the bus
and that can can they still get the reimbursement from

(23:20):
the state that they get for miles driven en routes
to reimburse these parents, That's one question I don't know.

Speaker 7 (23:33):
Well, I don't know the answer to that, but I
do know that it was feasible at one time. But
you know, with big government or big nanny telling us
everything we have to do, you know, unfunded mandates, I'm
not so sure that it's even feasible at this point.
But buses are a black hole and you just dump
money into it, don't ever get anything out of them.

(23:55):
And I realized they do have down for events and
that type of thing. They do have to have buses,
but just to run a route anymore. I'm some school
districts I'm pretty sure could do without them. But I
got I'm I'm in the middle of something here, but
I thought I thought i'd touch base and put that
on that ship. Well, have a nice day.

Speaker 6 (24:17):
Bye.

Speaker 1 (24:18):
Yeah, thanks thanks for sharing that. No, that's that's a
good one to bring up. I should have brought that up.
I forgot some of the conversations I've had about that
very topic. So I'm appreciative of that bringing that up,
that's an interesting prospect that schools may be looking at
or could be looking at. I know, And so I
wonder on these carpooling or not the car pulling, but

(24:42):
the bus pick up areas. I wonder how that affects
the reimbursement. I don't know. There's a lot of things
to look into there. Seven zero one two five eight
zero five fifty. Let's go back to the phone lines. Kim,
welcome to the cafe. What do you have to say?

Speaker 4 (25:00):
Yeah, it't me, it's you.

Speaker 2 (25:04):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (25:04):
I was just wondering if you're talking about these schools
and buses and stuff. Uh, does anybody out there just
know what percent of the school's budgets go to education
and just what percent goes to sports.

Speaker 1 (25:20):
I don't know if there's a breakdown, a generalized breakdown
out there or not. I don't know if individual schools
have done the breakdown. It's a it's a question that's
being asked more and more by people.

Speaker 3 (25:35):
I know that, well, you know what, I worked all
the way through high school after school, except I wanted
something I had to work for. I've never been a
welfare around all my life or anything. But you know,
having to fund all these sports just to play games,
and we're forced into paying these taxes for that. I
don't agree with that.

Speaker 1 (25:56):
And you're not alone in that. And uh, do we
do we need? Did we own buses just to run
around the sports activities? That's a that's another question. Or
if we can't, here's here's here's a good way to
maybe look at this, and a question to ask if
if we are saying we can't afford and can't do

(26:16):
pick up of rural residences and we've got to have
centralized areas, then shouldn't we maybe look at making parents
drive their own kids to sporting.

Speaker 3 (26:25):
Events damn right expenses associated to it.

Speaker 1 (26:32):
So that'd be my that'd be my next question, uh
to look into at the same time here and uh boy,
that would that would probably get some that would get
a school board meeting filled up.

Speaker 3 (26:46):
I bet I listened to all these people falling in
here and complaining about their legislators force and all this
stuff down their throat up they're like Oliver County, the
Tony Commnister power line. You know, there's an old saying
you get exactly what you vote for. You know, take
a look at New York stuff. So get some responsible

(27:09):
people on marri used to run now are going to
represent the people and not take money under the table
and go against them. I mean, it's very simple. It's
a no brainer.

Speaker 2 (27:18):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (27:18):
But sadly, the big money that influences the campaigns we
saw June ninth here North Dakota, the big money influence
still buys the camp buys the buys the elections, and
people just can't get away from doing the same old,
same old when the when the money and the flash

(27:38):
advertising is out there, and I don't know, I don't
know how you a curb that other than people. Here's
my synopsis. People are not hurting enough yet evidently, or
they don't realize the hurt that's coming down the pipe.
And to try and prevent.

Speaker 3 (27:55):
That, there's going to be some honest people in the
communities that would run to these offices that are responsible.
My dad is a state senator for two terms, to
tell the good and he quit it after two terms.
You said there are too damn much corruption. He was
way too honest, and I wish you would have exposed
it instead of just walking away from it. But yeah,
like you said, you get people the people if they

(28:17):
don't want to run and put responsible people in there.
They shouldn't cry around.

Speaker 1 (28:23):
Yeah, no, that's very true, very true. I mean we
do get what we vote for. We get the government
we deserve, so to speak, based on who's elected. Yep. Yeah, absolutely. Hey,
thanks for the phone call, appreciate it. Thanks for sharing
your voice here today. Have a great weekend, and hopefully

(28:45):
we'll hear from you down the road.

Speaker 3 (28:47):
Did you don't run your picks?

Speaker 4 (28:51):
What's that?

Speaker 2 (28:53):
Can you out run your picks.

Speaker 1 (28:56):
Most days?

Speaker 4 (28:57):
No?

Speaker 3 (29:01):
I used to watch so Gray Thatchong Dad, I follow
up off.

Speaker 1 (29:08):
Chick yep, yep, yeah, yeah, they had uh they had
it right there at the bar and grill. So yeah,
oh it's been very good.

Speaker 4 (29:18):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (29:19):
All right, Well, appreciate you and you have a great weekend,
and we're going to run to a break here and
we'll come back with more time for all of you
out there. On k Fire five fifty on the k
Fire Cafe. I'm Daryl Least, don't go anywhere. Welcome back
to the k Fire Cafe on a fabulous Friday afternoon
on k Fire five fifty. Happy to have you here
with us today and seven zero one two five eight

(29:41):
zero five fifty eighth two eight zero five fifty Have
something you want to share with us today? Right now,
let's go back to the phone lines. Grant, Welcome to
the cafe. What do you have to.

Speaker 8 (29:51):
Say, Hey, Darryl about the buzzing? Uh, you know, it's
like a local hall for say cattle or grain or
any what have you. And I would say that the
bussing is probably some of the lowest paid stuff out
of the school district. As my dad, my uncle, my grandma,

(30:13):
they all drove us for the school district and to
bid on it. It's open for competitive bidding and to
try to make it work. It's kind of like milk
and cows two times a day.

Speaker 4 (30:25):
It's a little bit.

Speaker 8 (30:26):
Of a check and it's kind of an inconvenience. But
I would say that it is good because it kind
of you know, you're you're seeing your buddies, you're building camaraderie,
and it kind of takes a little stress off a
working class, poor legal American household if you can get
some bussing for your kids to go to some events.

(30:46):
And that's kind of the whole thing is if there
is a participation in these sports and stuff, well, I
think it's worth it. And if I got to hear
another boomer come on here and say they don't want
to pay taxes and say how hard they work. We're
all working hard. This is just kind of part of
the deal. Why don't they look at the faculty and
the staff on how much is getting paid in salary

(31:08):
and certain things and try to prioritize I mean, do
you want to put your best scholarly students forward and
represent your town? And then all of a sudden mom
and dad have to take work offs, and then you
wondering why there's a bunch of slobs running around town
with their kids.

Speaker 2 (31:23):
Well, why aren't working?

Speaker 8 (31:24):
Well, now I gotta pick up my kids and take
them to events. Why'd you get fired?

Speaker 2 (31:30):
Will you know?

Speaker 8 (31:32):
So it's it's kind of a complicated thing, and it's
a difficult thing to try to balance for a school district.
I get it, But just ask yourself the next time
what a local hall costs. If you're taking any commodity
in the state of North Dakota and you got a
local truck driver, what do they want?

Speaker 2 (31:48):
Think about that?

Speaker 3 (31:52):
So the.

Speaker 1 (31:54):
Thing that really sticks out on this whole busting thing
is it is a black where you just continue to
dump money down it and you never I mean you
just watch it flush, right, because maintenance on buses is high.
Cost of buses initially is high. They don't run up

(32:16):
and down the roads for nothing. Getting drivers is you know,
in some areas getting very difficult. So to me, I
think we have to ask questions about do we continue
to put a funnel in the black hole or do
we close up the hole and seal it off.

Speaker 8 (32:42):
I think if you're going to have students participating in
the state.

Speaker 1 (32:46):
Is.

Speaker 8 (32:48):
Each child is a dollar amount getting ordered to the
state or the state is rewarding that and districts are
getting that money, they probably need to make sure that
students are getting paid well whatever there is adequate transportation
brought in if you're if they're recruited and going to
your school, So it kind of comes you know, what's

(33:10):
the cost? Like even our teachers are underpaid. What's the
cost for a bus driver? They're underpaid as well. They're
all underpaid. I mean, where is the money going? You've
said it before, maybe taj Mahal schools probably could do
without that, and maybe you know, some one of these things.
I do like out of the Trump administration is preference country,
you know, for a prescription drug that he's trying to
get down in price. More So, I don't know if

(33:32):
it's changed it all yet. Maybe some of these things,
like for school districts, there's preferred whatever that the state
has a negotiation with. Let's just say, wherever you get
your buses six like Harlow's and Bismarck, for example, maybe
there's some deal with that. You know they're going to
be bringing them in. You know they're going to be
cycling out buses, it's guaranteed sales. Like there's I think

(33:54):
some of this needs to be worked out, even in
the egg community, to like with fertilizer and chemical and
and equipment like I know that other of these inputs
around the world are less than they are here. The
American taxpayer is getting taxed and paying for things through
the knows every year by year is roll over and
do it? And this can be worked one with some agreements,

(34:17):
and I think it just needs to start. Maybe there
too is some negotiations.

Speaker 1 (34:23):
So here's here's my next question. I think it has
to be asked. Is this centralized education the right way
to do it?

Speaker 4 (34:34):
I don't know Darryl.

Speaker 6 (34:37):
Ye.

Speaker 2 (34:39):
Thanks.

Speaker 8 (34:40):
You know, yes, I think that our school system it's
in the glove box, yep, the schooling system. Sorry about that.
This is what we have right now. If you're a
public school, I mean, unless you're going to have a
bunch of people prop up private school and maybe that's
what it is.

Speaker 2 (35:01):
Maybe you have.

Speaker 8 (35:02):
Teachers that prop them up in their retirement, they'll probably
be more fulfilled they actually love teaching and other people
that you know, we put we need to touch on
this before we need more mentors even lawyers judges that
need to step in and straighten out these lawmakers and
make things right. Are we going to have teachers that
actually step up and maybe they make a private school

(35:25):
and people would then the state would have to honor
that if you started having a private school, maybe out
a district, or you just start charging.

Speaker 2 (35:37):
More in tuition.

Speaker 8 (35:38):
I mean, it's going to come from somewhere.

Speaker 2 (35:40):
Money's got to come from somewhere.

Speaker 1 (35:43):
Well, But I mean, are we are are centralized schools
the right way or do we need to go back
to Do we need some the rejuvenants of one room
schoolhouses in some areas well?

Speaker 8 (36:01):
That would be an idea, But who's going to fund
that one room schoolhouse.

Speaker 1 (36:07):
Cool. I'm saying that I'm asking, is centralized education that
we've been pushed to the correct thing, or does the
education system have to readopt some things from the past
and go back to the non centralized pushing everyone to
one town in the whole county for their education.

Speaker 8 (36:30):
Well, wasn't that what they're trying to do, Daryl pushes
the one fifteen minute city for one at a time.

Speaker 1 (36:35):
Absolutely, And that's why I'm asking if this is the
right thing to do or if this is just playing
into the control of the people. And people are going, Okay,
it's fine. Because of the convenience, Grant, I have to
run them up against the top of the hour here
to welcome back to the k Fire campaign, our number
two on a fabulous Friday afternoon. Happy to have all

(36:55):
of you here with us today. Don't forget bottom of
this hour. Gene Grainer is going to join us briefly,
join me briefly, and then he's just gonna run with
given some market updates and reports and analysis that he
has today. There is no markets open on this holiday,
June tenth or whatever they call it. I guess I'm

(37:19):
still working so I know a lot of people working
out there, but the markets are closed. But Gene Grainer
will join us and give you a little market, you know,
market discussion and talk here this afternoon. And we need
to work something out to do that a little more
regular basis with him, because he's a wealth of information.

(37:43):
I always enjoy visiting with him. So I'm kind of
sad I'm not going to be on to sharing the
conversation with him. I'm gonna run Higgs in a circle,
but extremely grateful that he's taken the time today to
do that. But if you have you know something you
want to say here yet today Simon's are one to
five eight zero five fifty eight eight zero five fifty

(38:05):
And let's go back to the phone lines. Welcome to
the cafe. What do you have to say?

Speaker 4 (38:10):
Hey, Darryl, So, whatever happened to the four wheelers are
driving in the ditch? Did you ever hear the rest
of the story? I'm not.

Speaker 1 (38:24):
No, So there's there that that's still kind of up
in the air. There's not a final resolution to all
of that. Well, there's that's still a work in progress.

Speaker 4 (38:38):
I think. All right, Old.

Speaker 1 (38:47):
Jill, No, I'm here, I'm here.

Speaker 4 (38:50):
Okay, I had dropped my phone, so I didn't know
if I get the wrong button any Oh.

Speaker 1 (38:54):
Yeah, yeah, well you could have.

Speaker 4 (38:58):
Uh, but yeah, I haven't heard of anything about that anymore.

Speaker 1 (39:07):
Yeah, No, it's it's pretty low profile right now. I
think there's a group working on it to come up
with a resolution or maybe work on designation of trail
systems or I don't.

Speaker 4 (39:19):
Know what all's going on there.

Speaker 1 (39:21):
For sure, I need to I do need to follow
up and kind of figure out where they're at in
that process. Again, it's been a while since I've looked
at it, so there I know that there's there's still
some complaining going on out there, and there's still some
justification to be able to right and the ditch going on,

(39:41):
and there's I think there's supposed to be a group
of people working together to come to a resolution. I
know they repaired an area.

Speaker 4 (39:49):
Supposedly up Kowa campground. Are you used to driving the
bitch up there? And after when this was going on
here they went they tore dug it up and plant
the grass and they put the little round straw strawbeels
across so nobody can walk for the water. Also, but yeah,
they shut that one off right, and that was going

(40:11):
on that.

Speaker 1 (40:12):
Talk sounds like asticles to jump in there.

Speaker 4 (40:18):
Oh, I think is what happened. Some four wheelers went
through there and just ran over them, because there was
some of them that were busted up, and I think
they just ran over them. So I wonder if they're
going to do the same thing with snowmobilers because up
here were really on one sided roads the four wheelers,
and then in the winter time the other side they
put markers out for snowmobilers.

Speaker 1 (40:42):
Yeah, well, I see. I think that's what they're trying
to figure out, is if they can put a trail
system together. I know there was one comment made I
listened to part of that. Was it the part of
the last meeting or maybe I can't remember meeting before
maybe or something of the county commission. I think it
was Chairman Bittner maybe made the statement that they can't

(41:06):
the way the state law is, you can't do just
a porson like you can't just say okay for within
one mile of develop these developments, you can't ride. It's
either got to be county wide or they said something
to that effect to making that reference. And so I
mean that kind of made sense to me what they
were saying there. That is, you know, so they either

(41:28):
have to do a county wide deal. They just can't
pick sections to go. You can't you can drive this section,
but you can't drive that section. That one's closed, but
the rest of the county is open with you know,
they'd have to do it around all the municipalities around Lincoln,
around you know, Wilt and around you know, all of
them deal or not Steel, but dust Erling and.

Speaker 4 (41:53):
Right, I've seen a lot of these little towns. They
let him drive around, And what are they going to say?
If you population underdo you can do it? If you're
over you can, right.

Speaker 1 (42:06):
And that's that's the thing. I think that they're the
way the laws are written. I think that's what they're
the county side of it that they're looking at, going okay,
how do we handle this? And then there's comment made
that maybe it's time we have that staple changed, and
and and so I don't know, I don't that's the

(42:27):
last little discussion I heard on it.

Speaker 4 (42:29):
So okay, Daryl, well you have a good weekend.

Speaker 2 (42:35):
I think you much full to help.

Speaker 4 (42:36):
Did you do all right?

Speaker 1 (42:38):
Sounds good? You have a great weekend, and thanks for
calling and sharing your voice here today.

Speaker 4 (42:41):
Appreciate it.

Speaker 2 (42:45):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (42:45):
See, that's an There's there's a lot of talk around
a lot of talk around the snowmobile aspect of this too.
If if they're just going to single out ATVs UTVs
and not include snowmobiles, I don't know the funny. The

(43:09):
thing I find funny is an ironic funny is one
of the proposals or that was that they can't ride
UTVs and ATVs during the winter in the ditches, and
I'm going, okay, that's the time of least tear up
gonna happen. That didn't make sense to me because you

(43:32):
got snowmobiles going in them in the winter time. So
why I went to UTV and an ATV be okay,
I did that one didn't make a lot of sense
to me, I guess. But I also didn't hear the
conversation around justification for not doing it during them times.
And I think it was this odd winter where we
had freezing then thine and freezing then thine, and we

(43:56):
didn't have a lot of snow covernet. So I think
they were making a react to one winter, not necessarily
the norm. But yet snowmobiles could have been out there
if they wanted to. I mean, they just probably have
to replace skis more often. But yeah, there wasn't a
lot of snow. They'd have been running grass and dirt.
But yeah, I don't know they have a designated you know,

(44:21):
the Snowmobile Club has a designated trail system, so I
think that's what maybe is being worked on there. So well,
let's go to another caller on the line. I think
we might have had one of the commissioners on the
line here, Welcome to the cafe.

Speaker 9 (44:38):
What do you have to say, Ah, this Commission of Woodcocks.
You want an update on the ATV or UHV and
what we're doing, and our ordnance is in place, we're
enforcing it. We've had several arrests already. They're moving through
the court system, so there's a hefty fine on there.

(44:59):
Whether that we can get that in place and working,
we don't know yet. It's up to the state's attorney
and the court system what will happen. But that's an update.
We are enforcing the law. And if you get out
in that area, there's a lot less vehicles that are
in the ditches. You know, it's legal to be in
the dishes in a lot of places, so not like
they're breaking the law, but sometimes they do and we're

(45:21):
there to enforce it. So it's we're moving forward.

Speaker 1 (45:24):
So, Jerry, you have is it? Is it a wet
condition type of situation that they can't be out there?
And is that what you're enforcing or what is your
What does the ordinance say exactly?

Speaker 9 (45:37):
Well, we're doing it primarily on danger.

Speaker 7 (45:40):
Driving and helping the dishes and that type of thing.

Speaker 9 (45:43):
But uh, okay, if we're not, we're not calling me
like a fireban or anything like that, because that's very
difficult to enforce. And where do you do it? Where
do you start? It has to be county wide, It
can't be in certain area you're you are right on that,
it has to be county wide. If we can't take
it too, is where we're going to put in an
ordnance and play. But if moving forward we're working on,

(46:04):
wait for the results of what what the course will do,
and hopefully if there's some heavy fines in there, the
word will spread and we'll make this situation a lot easier,
we hope.

Speaker 1 (46:17):
So Gary, do you remember what the finds are for
them in fractions.

Speaker 9 (46:25):
It's a I think it's a graduated find, like seven
hundred and fifty dollars for the first.

Speaker 7 (46:29):
Event, and then it goes up from there.

Speaker 9 (46:31):
So it's a it's a heavy fine. It's not not
two hundred or two fifty black we had originally.

Speaker 1 (46:36):
So it's well and that's one of the things that
that's one of the things that the UTV supporters said
that if you're going to have a fine, you got
to make it a serious one, if you're going to
have something, because these small ones aren't going to work.
I mean, even they recognize that a small fine does
nothing the curb actions of the few that are really
causing a lot of problems.

Speaker 4 (46:57):
Right.

Speaker 9 (46:58):
But I've been out I've got to get out in
the county all the time, three or four times.

Speaker 3 (47:02):
A week, and you'd be surprised how.

Speaker 9 (47:05):
A little of activity we've got in the ditches that
we have now. I mean it's really diminished. And I
don't know whether that's because of our enforcement issues or what,
but if you drive out there yourself, I'm out there
fifteen twenty times a month, and very little people actually
out there. They are using using the ditches for any

(47:26):
kind of writing. So we're on the right track. We're
moving forward, so that's what I can say.

Speaker 1 (47:33):
Yeah, well, thanks for the updates. Appreciate that, and you bet,
I appreciate you calling in sharing that here with us today.
And Jerry and I've got to run to a break,
so you have a great weekend, and thanks for sharing
that today. I'm the k Fire Taffee. I'm dere Elise.
I'll be back right after this. Welcome back to the
k Fire Cafe. They're Elise here on k Fire five

(47:53):
give and this will be my final segment. Eu Jeam
Graener is joining us here in this segment. Then he'll
just take that last, you know, twenty thirty minutes of
the show after the bottom of the hour break. But
some market discussions, as I said earlier, no market today,
federal holiday. But Eugene Grainer, how are you doing this

(48:17):
fine Friday afternoon? Okay, yeah, we'll we are trying to
get to get him to come through here. But on
this fabulous Friday afternoon. This wind is brutal out here,
just rabbling the trailer here as I'm sitting at the
Foster County Fair. It's one of them things that you

(48:42):
never have to worry about whether there's going to be
wind in North Dakota. It's just the level that it
blows at. It seems to be the issue out there.
So while we're well, James is working on bringing up
Eugene here just a few minutes left this first half
hour of the second hour here today. The Yeah, so,

(49:06):
as you heard Commissioner Woodcocks there, there are some have
been some fines levied for the reckless driving, ditch jumping, approach, jumping,
whatever might be.

Speaker 3 (49:20):
Didn't.

Speaker 1 (49:21):
It sounds like some of that's got to work through
to see if it sticks through the state's attorney in
the court or not. So I appreciate that update on
where that's at. But he did reconfirm that whatever they do,
they've gotta you know, they can't just spill out certain

(49:42):
areas there.

Speaker 4 (49:45):
I can.

Speaker 1 (49:45):
I can hear Eugene. Now, I don't know if everyone
else could or not, but I could hear him there.
But so the the fact Darryl, yes, James.

Speaker 6 (50:04):
Yeah, that's something I probably did here. So yeah, we'll
get we'll get him on for the last half hour.

Speaker 8 (50:08):
But yeah, we're disconnecting and reconnecting.

Speaker 2 (50:11):
So we'll get him on.

Speaker 1 (50:13):
Okay, okay, yeah, well that's that's interesting. It's it's technology, right,
It's great when it works and aggravating when it doesn't.
So but we'll get him. We'll get him tied in
for the final half hour anyways, for sure.

Speaker 2 (50:37):
And it doesn't help with it's operator error, right, Darryl.

Speaker 1 (50:41):
I wasn't gonna say that, but anyway, you're too nice.
Well you're the first one to say that I think
of anyone that's listening to here today. Oh yeah, it happens.
It happens, right. So it's one of those things that,
like I said, technology, when it works, it's a wonderful thing.

(51:05):
When it doesn't, it can be an aggravating thing. So
it's a it's one of those one of those things
that just kind of I'm not a technology guy. I
use it enough where I have to, but I'm not

(51:25):
a I'm not a tech junkie, so I'm not really
super excited about all this technology stuff. It's some of
it's neat and handy, but limited use too darn much
screen time. The way it is, I don't need to

(51:46):
spend even more time with the technology. So that brings
us to the uh, you know, right up to this
bottom of the hour break here coming up. So it's
a it's a fabulous Friday here on the k Fire
by fifty and so yeah, I don't know. I can hear.

(52:13):
I can hear you guys now, but I've got to
run to a break here. Coming back after. I'll be
here quickly just to welcome Eugene Grainer on after the
bottom of the hour, but we'll be right back. We
welcome back to the mine on half.

Speaker 6 (52:27):
Hour the Kvefire Cafe on Eugene Grainer sitting in here
for Daryl, who I was a little bit worried about.
I see in the news flash here on the screen
that the counterpart kf Our TV said a semi hauling
more than one hundred pigs overturns at Highway two hundred
in US two by Devil's Lake, and I was like, oh,

(52:47):
but apparently Darryl is fine. This occurred earlier today, and
I haven't heard any conditions of the pigs near can do,
but some I'm looking at. The photo was laid over
on its side, so I'm hoping for the pigs they
turned out okay. Well again, I'm Eugene Granner with Heartland
Investor Services heartlandinvest dot com. You're used to hearing me

(53:08):
coming on during the noon hour. We talk about the markets.
We go inside the number. And so Daryl got a
hold of me and asked if I wouldn't take a
little time here with you and talk about the markets.
What has happened transpired? What could change? What could liven
things up? After they let the air out of the balloon,
so to speak, from May fifteenth here into over a

(53:28):
week ago, and they took the bottom out of the wheat,
then corn, and soybean market, all three of them. And
so with that, and they even got to canola here
over the last two weeks. With that, you know what
could we be looking at moving forward that could change
the nmynamics of things and pricing. We know the weather
certainly looks good in the Midwest up here. We keep

(53:50):
getting rains that for the most part, are hitting everybody.
There's some areas that continue to need a drink, like
Bismarck in the area here. We obviously we get a
forecast for an inch of rain, we get about a
half an inch or less than that, and then fortunately
for the cooler temperatures, that's Okay, if we were seeing
eighty five to nine degree temperatures right now, which would

(54:11):
not quite be normal for for June, half an inch
would be a little light, but the submoistures is still there.
If you do have a question, I'm prepared to do
this whole thing by myself. But if you have a question,
my mother said I had a big mouth, so I'm
just living up to it. Right. I can do it.
But if you would like to ask something or maybe
have a dialogue conversation, two five eight zero five point

(54:34):
fifty is a phone number, or twenty eight hundred to
two eight zero five fifty is eight hundred number. I'm
doing this from my office, so I didn't even have
to go into the studio doing a little work today,
So we can handle this from my office, and we
have James on the board. If you call, he'll let
me know that there's somebody wanting to talk. So what
I would like to talk about right now is what

(54:56):
has just transpired just a few minutes on that, so
you haven't understanding what took place, so we kind of
look forward. Remember it's always easier and cleaner to look
into the rearview mirror than looking through the windshield. You know,
we got to get past all the bugs and stuff
that's coming at us, you know, changing our views at times.
But boy, we can look into that rearview mirror and
she's clean looking out the back. After fact, so we

(55:19):
hit May fifteenth, the big summit between President Trump and
President She and everybody was waiting for China to buy
right in front of it, or right around it, or
right after it. But the Chinese, you know, they've been
trading for two thousand years. Us tittlely winks over here
in the US at the Chicago Board of Trade, We've
only been trading for one hundred and seventy eight years.

(55:40):
So the Japanese they definitely got one up on us
by a factor of eight, so to speak. And so
they are smart and they knew if they was to
lay in the weeds. After they agreed that yes, we
will take twenty five millionaire took tons of US soybeans
a year, and at the same time, you know, to
seventeen billion dollars total of bag products. The market was

(56:03):
waiting with a bated breath. Okay, where are they? Where
are they? And there was nothing happening right away, And
so you have these twenty eight year old to thirty
six year old mits who run these algorithm computers and
they're paid by performance. And my god, I bought these beans.
I bought this corn. I'm in here, I own this
week and nothing's happening. I'm going to get out of

(56:26):
here before things go haywire. So I still get my
performance check at the end of the quarter. And so
they unloaded at record pace. We had a large open interest.
You can see. Open interest is the calculation of contracts.
At the end of the day, it's tagged who is
small speculators, who's large speculators, who are commercials, you know,
And so they could tell there was a large open

(56:47):
interest of speculative index fund ownership. And when Johnny wanted out,
Tommy wanted out, Sammy wanted out, and Peter and Paul
wanted to get out ahead of those guys. And you
had seen this breasthtaking wash out from the marketplace. And granted,
the weather was very accommodating at the same time. As

(57:08):
we went from mid May into June, there was some
dry pockets throughout the Midwest that finally started seeing rain.
Areas of Kansas, Nebraska had to get the corn planted.
They weren't even moving on planting corn. But then when
the rains finally started coming even they were rolling forward.
So the outlook for new crop weather turned pretty reasonable.
And so when you had the open interest, everybody wanted

(57:29):
to bail out because the Chinese weren't buying from us.
And I bet the Chinese were just laughing. They were like,
this is working out better than we thought. And that
allowed this flush to come out of the marketplace. So
now this past week we did see some buying of
soybeans new crop beans, and of course they tagged it
in this morning program system. It's called flash sails. Back

(57:52):
in the seventies, the Chinese stole our basic supply grain supply,
what we call carry out, the grain and the bins
left over after domestic usage. The price of grain was
slowly moving up, but our supplies were dwindling and disappearing,
and we didn't know where it was going. Well, Russia
was buying up our grain supplies. So after that, the

(58:14):
institute of this program, where any grain of one hundred
thousand metric tons were more purchased on any given day
within twenty four hours, it has to be reported the
next morning and then, of course we are notified by
eight am in the morning that so and so bought
two hundred and fifty thousand metric tons of corn or
beans or whatever. Well, amazingly enough, yesterday morning we had

(58:36):
seen a big announcement of some soybeans sold, but they
were sold to an unknown destination. Of course, that size
over three hundred thousand metric tons, three hundred and seventy
two thousand metric tons. We know it's likely China. But
they have this small little caveat they left in the
system where they could announce unknown destination and not have
to report who it actually is for six weeks. Well,

(58:59):
isn't that cute? Because he gets six weeks down the
road doesn't really matter anymore because we're onto trading something
bigger and better or anything else but that, and so
they get away with this. Now, if we was to
see again Monday a flash sale three hundred thousand metric
tons of beans or five hundred thousand, we know it's
likely China without having been told that. And so China

(59:19):
is now stepping in after this flush and is now
showing interest in buying beans, and of course, typically year
over year prior to these latest trade wars and staff
Foo's China would start showing up the beginning of August,
end of July, and they'll buy beans through December thirty first,
so they can shift their program over to South American

(59:40):
beans where they'll start buying those around late January early
February when the harvest gets underway out of the northern
portions of Brazil. Motto Grosso is where it comes from,
and that is the transitioning that makes natural sense for
the Chinese, and they'll pull in our beans and hopefully
get those last cargoes in at the end of January
for to February, because it can take a while for

(01:00:01):
those first beans first off to get out of Mountograud,
so find their way to the ports, get loaded on
a ship, make the transition and transfer over to China.
It all works out, and so China likely bought last
week and we're going to probably start seeing them buy
some more, but they're probably going to throttle it. We
would like to see them reduce publicly their tariffs. They

(01:00:22):
charge ten percent tariffs on soybeans and fifteen percent tariffs
on corn and wheat. Making that announcement is a big
deal because the government owned protures of grain. The teriffs
don't matter to them. They can buy at the cash price.
The private organizations, they're the ones over in China that
have to deal with these tariffs. And so that is

(01:00:43):
the big deal that we want to see. So the
more numerous buying wings out of China can take advantage
of these non pair of disruptions and buy our beans.
And now this is very fitting that China actually just
bought because people aren't aware of what has happened, that
are transpired, and we have seen our prices collapse. Soybean

(01:01:04):
values drop about seventy cents, but in the last thirty
days Brazilian FOB prices have rallied fifty cents. So a
lot of your old legacy newsletter kind of guys they've
been talking about, well, China's not going to buy because
there's a dollar discount plus to our beans. Well that
dollar discount is gone. Brazilian beans have rallied fifty cents,

(01:01:27):
while US bean values have dropped seventy cents. And from
August forward, because how tight the supplies start to develop
down in South America, their exporting remember how i'd said
they start end of January early February. Well, by the
time they get to July, their supplies start dwindling off
as they make room for the Sophoena corn crop which
comes online here in July, and they'll transition from exporting

(01:01:51):
beans to exporting corn, which competes with us. That's why
your old crop corn prices fall to bed out of
bed real bad once we get as if they have already,
But as we go through the fourth of July, if
we don't see problems for pollination while then that's the
queue to the grain buyer as well. I don't need
to pay up for this corn anyway, because I can
go buy some cheap South American corn coming online in

(01:02:13):
July and August. And every year we see this bottom
come out of the old crop corn market in July
and August. So keep that in mind. If you have
any old crop corn cleanup to be done, it's got
to be done now. Through the June thirty eighth which
report coming up. This is a big one. We're going
to get our stocks numbers, and then of course the
seatings number that came out on March thirty first. Keep
in mind, on March thirty first, they gave us like

(01:02:35):
a ninety five point three million acre corn number, which
many said was too high. Even though it was down
from last year, many think it should be down more
because when farmers mailed in their intention cars to the
US day, it was perceived that a lot of these
cards went in end of February and the first part
of March. We call the Iran US conflict war, whatever

(01:02:58):
you want to call it, started on the opening days
of March, and that's when prices exploded. Urea, everything went
to the moon. Now you can say in North Dakota,
the northern Plains, the northern Midwest, it's not going to
matter what fertilizer prices did, because the farmers buy that
in the fall. They do it for tax purposes. They
also feel comfortable getting access to the fertilizer supplies tucked

(01:03:21):
away on farm or at least they know they're bought
and are procured and they'll get it in the early spring.
So we don't really worry about that. But here's the
problem in the South. It is well documented. I even
think some of the trade organ that farmer organizations have
put this out there that farmers in the South they're
just in time buyer. They'll literally buy their fertilizer just

(01:03:42):
before they're ready to see their corn crop. So the
thought is that in the South, maybe a million acres
of more corn of what was intended on March eready
first we'll get shifted over to soybeans or or something else,
and with that maybe onto rice or cotton or what.
And that is where we won't know until June thirtieth

(01:04:03):
what the USD has in play. If they were to
lower that by a million acres, well, that adjusts our
carry out by about one hundred and eighty some million bushels.
Because if you have the current guess is one hundred
and eighty three bushels to the acre. Trendline yield is
what the country may produce. That's counting your roosters before
the eggs are hatched. You just take that times a

(01:04:25):
million acres. Of course there's a harvestable portion. Some of
that goes to silage. But let's just do simple math.
A million acres times one hundred and eighty three bushels
to the acre. That's one hundred and eighty three million
bushels we can pull off the carryout old crop carry
out right now is parked at two billion, one hundred
and forty five million bushels. That would put that under
two million bushels. Not oh my god, it's the oh

(01:04:48):
my god goes to new crop, but old crop. That
could give us a little bit of a bounce on
old crop supplies, possibly around the opening of July, especially
if you know some warm temperatures start showing up the
next week, because current weather models look out fourteen days,
not so reliably in the ten to fourteen day, but
we are looking out fourteen days, and so we're peaking

(01:05:09):
at the fourth of July right now, and nobody's too worried.
But the crop starts pollinating. The general Midwest is going
to be July tenth through July twenty fifth. So as
we get another week down, if they do see something
out there that causes that the doma of doom could
maybe be coming, that could give us another bump up
here June thirtieth and the June thirty acreage report. So

(01:05:31):
I tell you this for old crop thoughts, now new
crop thoughts. If this acreage is on, our current new
crop carryout is lower than the old crop carryout by
a factor of almost two hundred million bushels. So current
new crop we're parked at around one billion, nine hundred
fifty seven million. To take that down one hundred and
eight million bushels, we are under one point eight billion bushels.

(01:05:53):
We're parked at that one point seven eight billion. You're like, well,
so that's a lot of corn. Yes, it is, but
it really not. So if something happens to the new
crop corn, like China showing up and also finally buying
corn because the USD does not have them down for
much corn. Now, if this were to happen, we have

(01:06:14):
a rule of thumb, and the gauge is when you
crowd that corn close to one point seven billion bushes
to carry out porn dances up just under five dollars,
you start taking a blow one point seven billion, we're
gonna be dancing above five dollars a bushel. That's the
board price. That's not your cash price. That is the
board price, and you do your basis adjustment, and that's

(01:06:36):
that's what could be shifting here for corn in the future.
We don't know. We got to see what the USD
has to say on June thirty. Something else that could
have an effect on wheat continues to build. First off,
you know that we lost over two hundred million bushes
of hard read win a wheat that's your Kansas City
variety that we trade at the Kansasy border. Trade. Now

(01:06:56):
developing currently is a softwread win, a wet crop. That's
the Chicago crop. That's the one that's growing and growing
through Missouri, southern Illinois, southern Indiana in that area. It's
the week that China likes to buy. It's a kind
you can grind up with a stone on a bowl
and it's easy to produce flour that could run into
trouble with scab. There's a lot of rain occurring down there.

(01:07:18):
Three inches of rain, you know, over two day windows.
They have more rain scheduled down there this weekend. It
is going to be cool down there in the low seventies,
upper sixties, kind of like us up here. Scab loves that.
And if that disease builds it and they can't get
in the fields because the fields are so wet to
spray fungus size or whatever they want to do to
fight it, it's not easily done. And so SCAB can

(01:07:40):
weigh on the test weights and be quality issues. Well,
we know what they do with quality, you know, they'll
blend that off. But quality issues could also be vomitoxin problem.
If there's vomitoxin, well you know that takes even more
blend to get that parts per million down or billion
whatever that is. They got to get it under and
so the software when we be crop could come into trouble.
But here's the big one. The super el Nino has

(01:08:01):
been announced as in play. Super el Nino is of
course you've heard the warming of the Equator waters out
in the Pacific. It doesn't really so much affect us. Now,
what it does do is it'll give us a warmer
winter in North Dakota, the Midwest, they'll be drier in
the Midwest, they won't get as much snow. But around
the world it's going to affect Australia, the Australian Weather Service,

(01:08:24):
the Japanese Weather Service, that's a very popular one, that's
very good at measuring ocean temperatures. And now the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration acknowledge it is an el Nino
of larger than normal proportions. They call them these days
a super el Nino. Now, what has developed in these
super el Ninos is that northern Brazil struggles dry weather.

(01:08:48):
That'll be later on this year for brazil bean production,
but for now immediately wheat. Australia plants their wheat in
May and June and wraps up in July, and the
super al ninos are notorious for drying out their August
and septembers and bringing elevated temperatures if that occurs. Here's
what has happened since the nineteen fifties, since we ever

(01:09:09):
knew that super al ninos exist, and Australia struggles in
every single one of those events. There have been five
super el ninos since the nineteen eighties and the nineteen
eighties major drought losses on wheat. Nineteen ninety four had
big reductions, severe crop declines in two thousand and two,

(01:09:30):
two thousand and six was one of Australia's worst routes
on record, and in twenty fifteen they had production well
below trendline yields. So what could this year become. We
don't know. Like I heard one person say, well, you
have suspicions and then you have super suspicions. All they
say you have el ninos and you have super al ninos,
So maybe it's just super suspicious or not. But one

(01:09:52):
thing stands out is that a crop loss in Australia
will occur. Well, if we already have the Kansas crop reduced,
we have a software winter wee problem. We may have
a spring weeet crop. We can't see that yet, but
it's likely going to be a springheet crop here. But
that's going to be measured against a drought in France
right now. Yes, France, we can see your underpants if

(01:10:15):
you check the weather. Right now. They're in the upper
nineties to one hundreds through next week. Currently they have
been They've been dry for weeks. Their wheat crop has
gone from flowering to heading. It's weighing on production capabilities
in France. Germany is behind them a week or so
on weather, so they're flowering. Poland is behind that. Ukraine

(01:10:35):
is dry but it's not hot, but the high temperatures
are in Germany. Poland is upper eighties but not like France.
One hundred to bee weather right now. That is going
to cause the European Union, who exports suite to have
less competition with US, Are you following me?

Speaker 1 (01:10:51):
So?

Speaker 6 (01:10:51):
Less pre competition from a European communion A possible Australian
wheat production problem that reduces their exportable supplies, and then
we have a small or crop to begin with our
carryout in the seven hundred and fifty million bushel area
that if our demand gets increased, that lowers our carryout,
that elevates our grain price. And I think it's plausible.

(01:11:14):
Kansas City week, which seen a high of seven point
fifty earlier this year, then of course they pumbled it
down to six fifteen six twenty, got it back out
to six fifty this past week. It would not surprise
me we get that back up to seven fifty and
maybe tagging eight dollars later this year. Seasonally, the wheat
market rallies from a July through August low and rallies
into November and then tails off at the end of

(01:11:36):
the year. Farmers sell ahead of the end of the
tax year and then buy some more farm equipment. Well,
with that, we might be seeing our harvest lows sooner.
The lows we just had seen this past week, you know,
maybe is the low. I know from June twenty second
this coming week until the end of the month is
a horrible season for grains for wheat, and that could
cause us to sell off into the end of the month.

(01:11:56):
But if we can hold last week's lows or dance
around that value, I think an early harvest low is doable.
On the wheat market, trade sideways for a while and
maybe better weight prices here in September and October. Yes,
despite what could be a big spring week crop. That
sounds weird, but it's happened before two thousand and seven
into two thousand and eight, wheat prices rallied and we

(01:12:18):
had a crowd. So it's about the numbers on the
paper and the shuffling the shell game we play with
where the world wead supplies are. I'm Eugene Grand As always,
we're here to help at Heartlandinfest dot com. We have
livestock risk protection. Now is the time to switch. If
you want to switch with somebody who knows what commodities
and opportunities offer with LARP not just write you a

(01:12:39):
contract between now in July first, this is the time
to switch. We can help you with your catlet heartlandinvest
dot Com. Our phone numbers are there. Otherwise, crop insurance,
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I'm Eugene. I hope you had found this little tidbit

(01:13:02):
useful in your working thoughts. This is what we do
and this is how we help you. Thanks for listening
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