January 24, 2026 • 45 mins
Happy New Year! MJ and Lee Sterling are back with a special guest in Ian Ritchie (Fantasy Football expert). You know they get down, get your money and head to the nearest casino, plus , wait for it, wait for it, wait for it, Thank Me Later!
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Your home for college football Saturdays and the NFL presents
Picking the Loves with Mark James and Lee Sterling, brought
to you by the fan Duel Sports Book at Suquamash
Clearwater Casino Resort. We're getting you ready for the weekends
games with Lee Sterling.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Here's your host, Mark James.
Speaker 3 (00:21):
It's a special Picking the Locks edition Conference Championship Weekend
edition right here on Seattle Sports Leader ninety.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Three to three kJ R FM.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Mark James, host of MJ in the midday ten am
to one pm.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Here with you along with my.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Partner in crime, the guy we've been doing Picking the
Locks all season long, the great Lee Sterling from Paramount
Sports dot Com.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
And Lee.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
We'll also bring on our special guests for this segment
as well. But Lee, here we are and the Seattle
Seahawks are getting ready to sixty minutes away from possibly
going back.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
To the Super Bowl for the first time in eleven years.
Speaker 4 (01:06):
Well, I mean and not just that some people are
labeling this game the pre super Bowl because whoever wins
this game is probably going to be the favorite going
into the Super Bowl and maybe my more than three points.
We'll have our guests talk about that but I would
see it at least as a three point favorite. So big,
big game, and these two teams know each other inside now.
(01:29):
In the first two games were crazy, and I don't
see any reason why we shouldn't expect a third great
game on Sunday.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
And by the way, Picking the Locks brought to you
by fan Duel sportsbook Suquamish Clearwater Casino Resorts on not
far from where our special guests and you've heard them
on with me every Friday at noon through football season
doing fantasy football and player props from full time Fantasy
dot Com.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
He's in charge of all of fantasy sports for the Circa.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Ian Ritchie Bainbridge Island's finest Jr's Dad, Ian Ritchie, Ian
your Hawks.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
Well now me, I'm there. I'm all about hours.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Ian, I got Ian, I'm gonna be there. I'm gonna
be there coming up on Sunday at three thirty. But
I gotta tell you, Ian, I am nervous.
Speaker 5 (02:18):
Yeah, I am too. I am too.
Speaker 6 (02:20):
I'm first of all, thanks for having me on, and
I appreciate being on with somebody as iconic in the
industry as Leasterling.
Speaker 5 (02:28):
So that's all I'll get down.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
Hold on, let's not let's not overrate him too much.
Come on, you know, you gotta give him his due.
Speaker 4 (02:37):
Man.
Speaker 5 (02:38):
I appreciate it, man, I really do.
Speaker 6 (02:39):
But get to the game. I'm really excited for the game.
We've had two great games with the Rams this year,
and I expect this just like Lisa, I expect this
to be the third great game. And I'm really excited
for what we got.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
Yeah, I just I was there a month ago and
that epic thriller that went to overtime where Sam Darnold's
horrible the first, you know, regulation, and then in over
time he just turned into Joe Montanna.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Who's absolutely literally perfect.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
He did not have any incompletions on that drive, unwavering
and then the two point conversion backup tight end at
third string tight end Eric Sober, and the Hawks win
and they've you know, Ian, they've not looked back since.
So it's great to see and one of the things
to Ian me and being here just under a year,
(03:24):
I just love seeing how much Seattle truly loves the Hawks.
I mean, you can't and this was even during the
summer or baseball season, can't go anywhere without people wearing
Hawks gear.
Speaker 6 (03:38):
I wear it down here in Las Vegas, and I
get stopped everywhere.
Speaker 5 (03:42):
People are rooting for the Seahawks. They really are.
Speaker 6 (03:44):
I get stopped everywhere wearing all my Hawks gear this year,
way more than in the past. And you know, I'll
tell you things like the drum line that we have
and things like that that they put on social media.
Speaker 5 (03:55):
It's just everybody loves it. Man. All the talk down
here is about the Seahawks.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Love it, absolutely love it.
Speaker 4 (04:00):
All.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
Right, Well, there is another game coming up first Pacific
time at noon, the.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Patriots and Broncos.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Unfortunately for Denver, Bonix is out broken ankle, and so
we're going to make this segment all about player props
ian in this game, Drake May versus former Patriots backup
Jared Stidham.
Speaker 6 (04:23):
Yeah, former Patriots backup.
Speaker 5 (04:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (04:27):
You know, Stidham's a tough one to handicap this week.
I think it's tough for the odds makers, it's tough
for us. You don't know what to expect. It's been
a long time since he's played a game, and you
don't really want to take Sean Payton's word for it
that he's going to air it out and let it rip.
So he's a tough one. That being said, we do
have some player props on the Denver side that we
do like through the air. So there are some good
(04:47):
ones in this game, all right, what do you like?
We like Drake May has a good value to start
out with the Patriots over one and a half touchdowns
at plus a dollar fifteen. If it was a minus number,
I'd be a little more hesitant, but at a plus
number a plus about fifteen, we really think there's really
good value there and think that's a good one to play.
We do like Courtland Sutton actually this week is over
(05:09):
under his four and a half catches. We have him
for six that's another plus number plus a dollar ten,
and we're aggressive on his yardage. I guess I'm on
the lead it rip side. We have him for eighty
four yards and is over under fifty and that's a
dollar fifteen minus, so we're very very aggressive there. One
play I want to point out that's interesting is Mims.
So it's actually this is a funny one because we
(05:32):
like Mims to get a carry this week for as
money as sounds for six yards as over unders one
and a half. So I think that Peyton's going to
give it to him on a we believe he's going
to give it to him at least once, it's not
a couple of times. So we really like Mems over
the one and a half rushing yards and real quick,
I'll throw in this backup. Quarterbacks tend to like the
tight ends, so don't be afraid on a couple of
(05:54):
long shot tight ends for touchdowns with Ingram and Troutman
Ingram plus five hundred this week in trout minus plus
one thousand, and we think those are reasonably good moonshots
to play if you want to take a chance.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
All right, So I know I'm looking at that too,
Marvin Mims over one and a half run shot, that's crazy.
Speaker 6 (06:13):
Yeah, all a few times and I'll let's give you
one more as we like. Vermondre with four catches is
over unders two and a half, and so we're bullish
on Rimandre to get a few catches there, more than
more than they had him. So the Denver defense can
be susceptible underneath to some things. So four catches two
and a half over under minus a buck twenty five.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
I I gotta ask you this, do you have something
for an interception for Drake may or Jiards did him.
Speaker 6 (06:39):
That's a great question. So on Stidham, we absolutely do.
So you know Sidham's a little expensive on it. Yeah,
you can laugh because it's true. His over under on
touchdowns is a half. We have him throwing a touchdown,
but it's minus two ten. So when something's minus two ten,
I don't recommend it at all, even though I think
it's gonna happen if you end up throwing it in
a parlay with a money line something that it's okay,
(07:00):
it's a little expensive, and I'm sure Lee's got a
lot of information you could share on that. We also
have them for a guaranteed interception that's also a minus
a dollar ninety not they've kind of priced us out
of playing Stidham interceptions and touchdowns.
Speaker 3 (07:12):
Oh, I hate when they Delee and I've talked about that.
There's a casino down in Florida that rhymes with card
sock and they are the worst at that. I absolutely Oh,
if you want to take you know, the Chicago Bears,
you know you get a plus one oh five, But
if you want to take the Rams minus one thirty,
(07:33):
I mean, like Jesus dude, Like, what are we doing here.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
I can't lee anything stand out to you.
Speaker 4 (07:39):
Well, what's interesting with Jared Stidham. I did watch them
in preseason and I made a couple of notes. Played
in the first two games and actually look really good.
The first preseason game. I know that it's very basic defense,
not many stunts and blitzes, but here was fourteen for
fifteen for one hundred and thirty six yards, two touchdowns,
(08:01):
no interceptions. Then he also played in the second game
and started, went sixteen for twenty three for two forty
and a half for two touchdowns and no interceptions against Arizona.
I actually think his mechanics are very good and I
was surprised that he was not able to get a
starting spot with someone. So, you know, credit to the
(08:22):
Denver ownership and their coaching staff for being able to
keep them around. The only question is after not taking
pretty much a snap other than kneeing down a couple
times this year and last year, you know how much
Russ is on him. But as far as a talent,
I think he's a talent that could be starting in
the NFL. And there's a reason why they signed him
(08:44):
to a two year contract. So I'm going to go
against him, probably not play anything at all as far
as his player props, just because of like you mentioned
some of the lines as far as minus two to ten,
you know, minus one ninety for some of these props.
I just you know, if it's even money, then I
can it's easier to pick aside. But I actually think
(09:07):
he He's a talented guy. Eight touchdowns to eight interceptions
and just a little over one thousand passing yards in
his career. But I think the right system, he could
end up being a starter Ian.
Speaker 3 (09:20):
What about Drake May rushing yards total in this game?
Would that be something that you would.
Speaker 6 (09:25):
Lean Well, Interestingly, we actually do have by the getting
your interception, we do have Drake maythoring interception and plus
a dollar eight US one away.
Speaker 5 (09:33):
So that's a good value on a plus.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
Very good value, very good.
Speaker 5 (09:38):
I believe that too.
Speaker 6 (09:39):
And then interestingly, and I was going to point this out,
we're actually under on his rushing his totals thirty point five,
and we had him for nineteen against that defense, So
we actually have him under on rushing yards this week.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
Okay, fair enough, all right, let's jump to the big one,
what I call the real Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Ram Seahawks the trilogy. Here we go Ian fire Away.
Speaker 6 (09:59):
Tell us what you like, all right, we'll make our
way down the list here. We like Donald to throw
two touchdowns. That's minus a dollar twelve. Wow an inches, Yeah,
minus a dollar twelve for two tds. We think that's
really good value there, and we have that. We have
Stafford for two touchdowns at minus a dollar thirty, and
we also have Stafford for an interception at minus a
dollar thirty. I don't like to go much higher than
(10:20):
a dollar thirty. I'm with Lee on those numbers.
Speaker 5 (10:22):
It's really tough on the prop bets. Tough is It's
tough enough.
Speaker 6 (10:24):
But we're a minus a dollar thirty on an interception
and minus a dollar thirty on two touchdowns from Stafford.
Speaker 3 (10:31):
Let me really jump in there real quickie, and do
you not have any interceptions for Sam Donald?
Speaker 2 (10:35):
None?
Speaker 6 (10:36):
We have zero, And as a matter of fact, I
didn't mention it because it makes me a little nervous.
We have them for zero interceptions at plus the buck
twenty five, but it makes me very nervous, so I
purposely didn't mention it.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
Okay, well, sorry I did, I did.
Speaker 4 (10:48):
Hey.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
In the seven eighth inning, you got a no hitteror
going I did it. Sorry, Yeah, that's okay.
Speaker 6 (10:54):
But we do have them for no interceptions at plus
a buck in a quarter, which be honest, is an
awesome value.
Speaker 5 (10:59):
It just makes me nerves. Right.
Speaker 6 (11:00):
We we know how Darnold can get sometimes. Now I'm
just hoping he does like he did last week and
actually Trent Dilford, but you know, no interceptions for him
this week on that uh. We we do like JSN
for a touchdown. It's I have seen great value on
JSN touchdowns week in week out. He's never more than
a minus a buck ten or about fifteen. He's even
money this week for a touchdown, and we really really
(11:23):
like that one a lot. So we have JSN for
a touchdown on that U we have Puka and and
and Devontae Adams both with seventy five percent chance of touchdowns.
They're both plus numbers. I don't believe in both of them.
One of them will probably score, so I don't I
don't necessarily recommend either those if you want to put
those guys in a round robin. They're both plus numbers.
We do like aj Barner and so I want to
(11:43):
make sure I pay out.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
I love it.
Speaker 6 (11:46):
Yeah, so yeah, so Barner's catches, he's his over undrunk
catches on reception three and a half and he's plus
a dollar twenty and and so you know his uh,
his yardage is twenty eight. We have him for thirty
four minus a buck eighteen. We have him for four
catches at a plus number. We think that's a great value. Interestingly,
his last two times, and I'm sure you're going to
(12:06):
bring this up, is you know he played against the
Rams on eleven sixteen, he was ten catches seventy yards
on eleven targets, and we played him in December he
was four catches forty nine yards on six targets. So
we think aj Barner is a really great play this
week for receptions. You could probably play the yardage as
well as a little bit closer, but the plus.
Speaker 5 (12:25):
Number three and a half is a really really good value.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
I like it.
Speaker 3 (12:28):
Anything on the guy who's gonna be now in the
role of Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry Kenny Walker. With
now that Zach Charboney tearing his acl being done for
the rest of the playoffs, Kenny Walker's rushing yards is
that something that you would look at possibly hitting over
in this ghaw.
Speaker 5 (12:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (12:47):
I was actually surprised because I thought we were very
bullish on him. We have the number one scoring running
back for the weekend, and and what I thought was
bullish until I looked at all the numbers. We have
him for ninety two rushing yards, but the oddsmakers have
to have him for eight eighty eight and a half.
Speaker 5 (13:00):
So they're giving him a lot of respect this week.
Speaker 6 (13:03):
You don't usually see an eighty eight and a half
over under on the running back. You don't even see
that with the James Cooks and the other guys. So
Walker's getting a lot of respect in that way. And
we have him for twenty five or ceed yards the
over under they have them again twenty three and a half.
They're bullish on it. We have him three catches, the
over unders two and a half. So we're all pretty
close in our numbers that we have, and the osmakers
were very bullish on Walker. We have Walker for seventy
(13:25):
five percent chance at a touchdown, which is minus a
dollar fifty five. Although I think he's going to score,
I usually don't weigh the dollar fifty five price.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
All right?
Speaker 4 (13:33):
Can I you know, I just come in here, real
quick question anything on George Hallani. Will you put out
any number on him? Because there is I'm hearing a
chance he might be activated, and you know, watching him
in preseason he looked like he was really good.
Speaker 5 (13:49):
He actually is good.
Speaker 6 (13:50):
So we actually have Jilani for four carries for fifteen
yards and one catch for seven We have him for
a twenty five percent chance at a touchdown also, and
my guess is, I haven't looked at the touchdown oz
I'm here as enormous, but we have him for a
twenty five percent chance at a goal line carry. So
that's a good point out. If you're looking for a moonshot,
that's that's a pretty good one. But we have four
carries fifteen yards.
Speaker 5 (14:09):
One thing I.
Speaker 6 (14:10):
Would mention is, you know, Kyrin Williams has.
Speaker 5 (14:13):
Some good games against US.
Speaker 6 (14:14):
In the two games against US, he had twelve carries
for ninety one yards twenty three carries for seventy yards.
The over under of this week is fifty three and
a half, so both times he's been over in that number.
So my gut says he's probably going to get that over.
We only have him projected by all the data at
fifty nine because we gave some love to Blake Korum.
Speaker 5 (14:33):
So I just want to point this out. There is
a discription.
Speaker 6 (14:36):
So we have Blake Koram for forty six yards this
week is over under his twenty eight and a half.
So there is some value there on a Blake Korum.
But I do believe Kyroen could potentially get over that
number as well. He was over at the first two times,
so there's a little bit of value. What I noticed,
and I'll just be real quick, what I noticed in
the numbers and looking at it is they've taken some
(14:57):
catches away from Puka and Davante and they kind of
re routed them toward Korum, Kyron and Ferguson Parkinson. So
you know, we do like Parkinson with four catches is
over unders two and a half, and we like Parkinson
for thirty eight yards is over under twenty four. So
we're a little bit more bullish on the tight ends
there than we are the receivers for the Rams.
Speaker 3 (15:18):
You know what, Parkinson former Seahawk and he has been
huge for the Rams over the course of the last month.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
He's come up big. He came up big.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
Against Chicago, and then the game before that, he caught
the game winning touchdown against Carolina on that drive where
they're going all the way down the field. The one
that stands out to me more than anything, and I
love it. I'm glad you and your staff at full
Time Fantasy dot Com field the same way. I love
the AJ Barner over three and a half catches. I
love that.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
I just do.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
I think there's gonna be a lot of the reason
why too. I think if and the Rams that's their weakest,
you know, link is that secondary. But if they do
everything they can and take JSN or Cooper Cup away,
then you know Sam's gonna have to check down at
AJ Barner and he's gonna be there to get perhaps
a lot of catches. So full Time Fantasy dot Com
(16:11):
Circus sports Ian Ritchie Ian, great stuff out of you,
and let's go Hawks on Sunday.
Speaker 6 (16:18):
Hey, go Hawks, and I'll throw one more out.
Speaker 2 (16:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (16:20):
Karen Ferguson plus six hundred on a touchdown. They seem
to like him on some big plays. He's had a
couple called back this year as well. He's a big
play tight end for them at plus six hundred in
a moonshot parlay that might be worth a chance, and
Parkinson's plus three twenty, so either one of the two
tight ends in that is worth a moonshot TD chance
in a kind of a fun parlay if you do it.
Thank you so much for having me on, Lee, It's
(16:41):
great to be on with you. I really appreciate it
and love you.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
Everybody, Go Hawks, There we go, go Hawks Ian Richie
check out his site full Time Fantasy dot Com. All right,
coming up next, Wow, before we get to what I
call the real super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
We'll do that in the final segment. Coming up next,
Lee and.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
I will break down the AFC Championship game and things
that we like in this game and what way to
lean and oh, I've got something that might surprise a
lot of people, So we'll get to that coming up next.
Right here on Picking the Locks, brought to you by
FanDuel Sportsbook, Suquamish Clearwater Casino Resort on Sports Radio ninety
three to three KJR FM.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
Are you looking for a lock this weekend? You've come
to the right place. Now back to Picking the Locks
with Mark James and Lee Sterling, brought to you by
the FanDuel Sports Book at Squamish Clearwater Casino Resort on
Sports Radio ninety three point three kjr FM.
Speaker 3 (17:38):
Back on picking the Locks Conference Championship Weekend edition.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
As we get ready for Seahawks Rams, We're going to
save the best for last.
Speaker 3 (17:46):
Coming up in the final segment next, brought to you
by FanDuel Sportsbook, Suquamash Clearwater Casino Resort, Mark James from
MJ in the Miday ten Am the one pm on
Seattle Sports Leader ninety three three KJRFM, and the Best
Sports any Capron America from Paramount Sports.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
It's in Paramount Sports dot com.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
Lee Stirling, Lee, you got anything for the people, not
only for football season but for basketball season.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
Any promotions coming up?
Speaker 4 (18:09):
Yeah, we did well. First off, for the props. What
we're going to do is people love to play props.
I do. Player props have become huge. I mean it's
bigger than playing sides, I think for you right now
and for a lot especially the people that are just
getting into to wagering, it's fun. You have something on
the game, and let's be honest, these games are tough
this weekend, so why not look at player props. We
(18:32):
went twelve and two for our clients last weekend with
all the games, We've got a special ten games ten
player props. Ten player props combined both games just twenty
five bucks. So you know there's people out there charging
two five hundred and one thousand dollars. Give us a
try ten player props combined for the two games just
(18:52):
twenty five bucks. We think there's a good chance you'll win,
and we know if you win, you'll be back.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Yeah, no question about it. I've had and leaking in
Testa's lee. I don't know the percentage, but off the
top of your head, would you say that I've been
about over sixty sixty three percent on player props this year.
Speaker 4 (19:11):
Yeah, and the only problem you had was was last
week and had a couple that started off great. And
you know, sometimes these games they change on a dime.
Whether it's just so hard to predict. So I'm one
of these guys that believe it or not. You know,
I rate my games from ten to fifty units. I've
given out some Super Bowls as twenty to twenty five
(19:32):
unit plays. I know people are going to play at two, three,
five times their normal amunt I know it, But you know,
sometimes there's no edge and it can, you know, be
decided by one play. And for instance the Bears game
and overtime, all they needed to do, They're at the
fifty yard line, run three or four plays, get twenty
twenty five yards, kick a field, go and win. They
(19:54):
got greedy Miami Hurricanes. Miami's at the forty yard line
twenty two seconds to go in a college game, and
to get a first down the clock stops. You have
more than enough time, and they got greedy also, So
you know, some lessons to be learned there from these
coaches and also quarterbacks, you know, going into this weekend.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
Yeah, a great play. You were there on Monday night.
Speaker 3 (20:18):
You were there, and I you know, I got to
watch it, and I wish i'd been there, But then
after what happened, I'm glad I wasn't because I just
don't understand that. And you know, the Bears needed twenty
five to thirty yards. They were in field goal position.
Miami needed a touchdown. But they had was, they had Wisconsin,
they had Indiana because they have the same uniforms on
(20:40):
their heels and all Shannon Dawson, the offensive coordinator, need
to do. I don't blame Carson Beck yeah, he underthrew
it and Shamari Sharp picked him off from Miami Northwestern
High School. But all he needed to do was just
keep picking up like eight to twelve to fifteen yards.
Then once you get down between the seven and twenty
(21:00):
five yard line, then you can now start to swing
for the fences. You don't need to do that when
you just need to, you know, matriculate the ball down
the field. And I thought that was an error. And
here's the thing about it. I wish we would have
gotten dominated. Unfortunately we didn't. I mean when I say unfortunately,
because we could have, we would have and we should
(21:23):
have won the national championship on Monday night.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
We left that on the field.
Speaker 3 (21:29):
We gave away a touchdown on a block punt in
our own end zone, we missed the field goal, and
then you know the pick at the end. But like
I've said, and I've said it on my show all
week long, especially when you get to this time of
the year, whether it's a college Football National Championship semi final,
(21:49):
AFC NFC Championship, or a Super Bowl or even a
wild card divisional playoff round, it's not just about the
plays you make.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
It's about the mistakes.
Speaker 3 (21:59):
You don't make, or in this case for the Bears
and the Hurricanes, the mistakes that they did make. So
that's the difference right there. That's a very thin line
between winning and losing, surviving and advancing, and it's the
mistakes that you do or don't make.
Speaker 2 (22:16):
And that's just it. The team, I.
Speaker 3 (22:18):
Mean, Houston Texans are like they had a clear cut
path to Super Bowl sixty to face Bo Nicks and
the Denver Bronx excuse me, Jared Stidham in the Denver
Broncos and their quarterback who's regress worse than Lebron's hairline
since he came the league two years ago.
Speaker 4 (22:38):
C J.
Speaker 3 (22:39):
Stroud threw four interceptions in the first half and he
killed his team and completely shot themselves in the foot
and cost them a rematch with the Seahawks or the
Rams in Super Bowl sixty.
Speaker 4 (22:53):
Well, it's a combination also, the offensive coordinator. You're playing
some bad weather conditions. I mean it was raining and
it's really tough to grip of football snowing. Yeah, combination
the both, and that is really tough for a quarterback
who's not used to it. He should have known that.
The offensive coordinator and you have to adjust, you know,
(23:13):
you don't, you know, do long, delayed, drawn out plays,
and that's what they were trying to do. And when
that happens is a better chance you're going to get
hit when you're throwing the football. But you know, CJ's
drive like he had no clue. There was defensive linemen
coming at him. I don't know what where he's been,
where his head was, but it looked like he was
und aneather just just slow. He was just very slow
(23:36):
to process everything. And it ended up costing him because
the Patriots were sure to be taken there. Any other
team that that had decent talent probably wins that day.
But the Patriots survive and move on. And that's what
you know makes this game interesting. Here can a young
team with a very young quarterback go out out West
(24:00):
and you know, take on a team that has a
really good defense, number one defense in the NFL.
Speaker 3 (24:07):
Good teams win, great teams cover, and in this league
in the regular season, the Seattle Seahawks, the Rams, and
the Patriots with a top three in point differential and
the top three against the number. Conversely, the Denver Broncos
were seven to ten in the regular season you can
(24:28):
make it eight and ten after covering versus Buffalo in
a very controversial ending type game, a lot of calls
that people didn't quite sit right with. So in this game,
Sean Payton, they started off as a five and a
half point underdog, Lee, I'm seeing around four and a
half right now. All I'm gonna say is this, before
I get your thoughts, do not discount the Denver Broncos
(24:51):
because Sean Payton is going to devise a game plan
that's gonna put Jared's Didham in a position to succeed
and not low risk, high reward. And to me, if
you're talking about value and you want to get value,
and that's the number one thing that we talk about
when it comes to gambling, I'm looking at this game,
(25:15):
the Patriots and the Broncos, and I'm telling you right now,
I love Denver as a money line plus two hundred
right now. To me, you talk about value, I love
that right then and there. I'm not saying they're gonna
do it, but if anyone is going to discount this team,
you might regret it.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
What are your thoughts on this gamely?
Speaker 4 (25:39):
Well, very similar to the Miami game on Monday, night.
So you have a Miami team that was a seven
and a half point underdog at home. Miami's defense, I
mean didn't play their best game, but still played well
enough for them to cover and have a chance to
win the game. I think it's it's kind of more
the same here with Denver, very tough place to play.
(26:00):
You can't just all of a sudden, get on a
plane and forty eight hours before the game expect to,
you know, go out there and play like it's just
any other field. We've seen many teams go up there.
There's guys sucking win, they can't last the whole game,
chasing a quarterback or you know, on offense, blocking tough
defensers players. So I think that that plays into it
(26:23):
here a home field, very very tough, and it played
into it Monday, Miami covered, they were getting seven and
a half. They lose by six. Here's what I would suggest.
I would suggest, if you like Denver like you and
I do, you put you know, seventy five maybe up
(26:44):
to eighty percent of your wager on them plus four
and a half because they can still lose let's say
by one, two, three, four points and you cover and
then put maybe a quarter to a thirty year wager
on the money line. You know, if if they cover
happy like I was Monday night, if they cover and
win the game out right, you know, then you're joining
(27:05):
Mark and I, you know, going to the Bahamas probably
after the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Yeah, so yeah, it's it's uh, this is a game.
I mean, it's gonna be a tough test for Drake May.
And listen, you know Drake May, Like, yeah, he had
three touchdown passes. He's been sloppy, he's had fumbles, and
he had an interception on on you know, Sunday, uh
in that game versus Houston. So Drake May, he's he's
he's kind of been CJ stroud ish in these playoffs.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
And let's face it, yeah it's.
Speaker 3 (27:36):
His second year and more than likely he's gonna finish
as the runner up to Matthew Stafford for the MVP.
But this is his first soire into the playoffs and
he's doing it his second year. I mean, I look
at the totality of the NFL regular season into the postseason.
I think the two most young improved quarterbacks from last
(27:58):
year to this year, I don't think they are.
Speaker 2 (28:01):
Drake May and Caleb Williams, like both of those guys.
Speaker 3 (28:04):
I mean you look at the rookie years and I mean, god,
Caleb Williams, that Matt Eberflus, Drake may had, Drod Mayo.
Now they've got Ben Johnson and Mike Rabel. So all
that's another thing too, Lee. We got to just say
this as well. All four teams have excellent coaches. I
(28:25):
believe on the NFC, which we're gonna talk about in
the next segment. Has this take away any Reid. I
believe the two best coaches in the NFL right now,
one in one A are Sean McVay and Mike McDonald.
I think those are as good as it gets. John Schneider,
Seahawks president of football Operations, General Mayor, just won the
(28:48):
Executive of the Year a couple of days ago. So
this is why you know, at the end of the day, Yeah,
Jimmy's and Joe's coaching matters. Look at the talent they
have in Dallas, Dak Prescott, you look at obviously Ceedee Lamb,
George Pickens, you know, you look at what they've done
(29:10):
this year, and I mean Dallas Cowboys stydn't make the playoffs,
so coaching mattersly, especially at this time of the year.
Speaker 4 (29:19):
Yeah, and just look at Monday night, Kurt Signetti, his
play calls on third and fourth down were probably the difference.
So it's not that Mario Christvall made any mistakes, No,
didn't make mistakes. But great coaches call that great play.
When they need they need to, they dial it up.
So I just think that you know, both of these
teams have quarterbacks that are either young or inexperience, so
(29:43):
they're going to limit it. They're not going to push
the ball down the field as much as they normally do.
You're going to see a lot of screens, and I
think Denver's going to slow the game down and they
want to make it six seven, eight possessions for the game.
They don't want to make this a shootout, you know,
where it's thirty eight five. They want to see few
possessions and they want to control the ball on the
(30:04):
clock and not have their defense on the field for
the whole game. So I think that's important also. So
that's I think why we both end up liking Denver here.
Speaker 3 (30:13):
Plus the points, yeah I do too, and also get
value on the money line as well. Coming up next
to me the Real super Bowl. I will be there
Sunday at three point thirty. Seahawks Rams the trilogy first One,
Unbelievable sequel better and coming up on Sunday, Wow, the
(30:34):
Real super Bowl and why whoever wins should be given
the Vince Lombardi Trophy On Picking the Locks?
Speaker 1 (30:39):
Are you looking for a lock this weekend? You've come
to the right place. Now back to Picking the Locks
with Mark James and Lee Sterling, brought to you by
the fan Duel Sports Book at Squamish clear Water Casino
Resort on Sports Radio ninety three point three kjr FM.
Speaker 3 (30:56):
The final segment on Picking the Locks Conference champ Being
Ship Edition, Mark James MJ from MJ to Midday and
Seaou Sports Leader ninety three to three KJRFM, along with
the Great Least Turning, Best Sports any Kapernamerica Paramount sports
dot com. You can also give m acauley give them
the number, the one eight hundred number if they want
(31:16):
your VIP picks.
Speaker 4 (31:18):
YEP, it's eight hundred, four hundred nine seven four one.
Again the number eight hundred four hundred nine seven four one.
So also check out our website. It's Paramount Sports dot
com and we have videos up at all time. You
can see my results for the last five years. A
lot of other handicappers, you know, they'll tell you they're great,
(31:39):
you see some just absolutely outlandish claims like you know,
twenty three and one last twenty four picks just can't
be done. So we put our results for the last
five years out there so you can see every single
game I've given my clients so over the last five years.
And also I know this is ending here, but we'll
(32:00):
continue through the Super Bowl. Will have a segment also,
yeah before the Super Bowl with.
Speaker 3 (32:05):
H although yeah, the boss Man too, I think might
want us, especially if the Seahawks take care of business.
I think we're going to be doing a Super Bowl
Picking the Locks edition, probably live from Radio Rows. So
just just I have a feeling that that could.
Speaker 2 (32:20):
Yeah, I have an inclination that you know.
Speaker 3 (32:22):
And by the way, and I you know, we'll wait
to give our picks at the end on the Seahawks
ram game. But it's been so much fun and it
is another thing too, just to add to what you said,
these scamby cappers out there, that that if first of all,
if there's a slate of NFL games and they're giving
out like anywhere between eight to twelve picks. They're frauds.
(32:49):
They're absolute frauds that they might as well. They're just
basically picking their nose. Listen, the real sharps, the real
pros and handicappers likely and yours truly are the one
less is more. Now, some weekends, you know what, you
might have five on an NFL Sunday, somebody might have two,
(33:09):
usually about three because.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
You know, especially with player props.
Speaker 3 (33:13):
But you know, so for me, I'm someone and I've
gotten really into player props. I've had a lot of
success last season and especially this year's Lee as it
can attest to that. Yeah, you know, there's a guy
who works in sports radio for like thirty five years
whose name will go unmentioned, and he gives out eighty
five picks a weekend and I'm like, dude, you're such
(33:34):
a fraud. We're not gonna say his name, but I'll
leave it alone at that. But regardless, yeah, be careful.
You know the people who are reputable, the people that
you know. And listen, Lee and I have told you,
just like anybody else, we're gonna lose two. And we've
had weeks Lee had a week he went winless. I
had a week where I had one win. And you know,
(33:56):
but we're always gonna be transparent and honest because this
stuff is hard, trust us, you know. I mean, if
it was easy, everybody be doing it. It's called gambling
for a reason because you could win or you could lose.
If it was called winning, everyone want to do it,
but it's gambling. So but we've got enough, you know,
knowledge and information and sources to be able to handicap
(34:20):
these games and plays to where we feel that we
have a distinct advantage. And don't forget. This show is
brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook Suquamish Clearwater Casino Resort solely.
The first time these two teams faced each other, Sam
Darnold through four picks, but the Seahawks defense was absolutely ridiculous,
(34:42):
holding the Rams in check. And I came in out
of that game, even though the Hawks lost that game,
and I said to myself, I feel like Seattle is
the better team.
Speaker 2 (34:54):
That was back in mid November.
Speaker 3 (34:56):
Then the Rams come up here to lumen Field just
over a month ago on December eighteenth, and they go
for over five hundred and nearly six hundred yards of
total offense. It goes to overtime and the Seahawks win.
But in that game, I felt coming out McVeigh oh
coach Mike McDonald and the Rams are a better team.
(35:19):
But guess what, Neither one of those games matter anymore.
All that matters is what happens on Sunday. Because I said,
this is the real Super Bowl. I believe Roger Goodell
and his suits on Park Avenue should show up to
Lumenfield on Sunday and award the Vince Lombardi Trophy to
the winner of this game. That's how confident I am
(35:40):
that whoever's gonna win this game will win Super Bowl sixty.
That being said, I'm nervous from a Seahawks standpoint because
you're going up against one of the greatest quarterbacks in
NFL history, Matthew Stafford. He's won a Super Bowl in
a Super Bowl MVP, and he's gonna win a regular
season MVP in the NFL Honors is announced on Thursday night,
(36:02):
three days before the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (36:03):
And you got Sean mcvayley.
Speaker 3 (36:06):
He's got the most wins in the playoffs for any
coach under the age of forty. That is ten wins, unbelieve,
more than the late great Don Shula, who you know
very well. So you're going up against guys who have
been there before. Sean McVay has been in two Super Bowls,
Stafford's been to one, and it's a tough matchup. Also,
(36:30):
this is the third time in conference Championship game history
that the number one offense is facing the number one defense,
and in the previous two meetings, the number one defense
has won that game. The Eagles in nineteen eighty over
the Dallas Cowboys. Okay, and yeah, in twenty fourteen the
(36:52):
Seahawks Russell Wilson in the Allegian of Boom over Aaron
Rodgers and the Packers.
Speaker 2 (36:57):
So now this will be the third.
Speaker 3 (36:59):
Time that this is happening since nineteen seventy the AFL
NFL merger. So in this gamely, with all that being said,
what's the things that stand out to you the most?
Speaker 4 (37:11):
Okay, So a couple for Seattle are you know they
ran a kickoff back for a touchdown last weekend and
the guy that did it, Shaheed, also had a fifty
eight yard punt return for a touchdown against the Rams
the last time they played. So I think that they're
going to be very cautious as far as that's concerned.
You might see them kick the ball out of bounds.
(37:31):
They want to make sure he does not have a
chance to return a punt or kickoff for a touchdown
against him. Also, Seattle won the most recent meeting thirty
eight thirty seven, which is very rare because they were
zero to three in turnover March. You almost never see that,
like less than four percent of the time in the
NFL game, So.
Speaker 2 (37:51):
Very rare, very rarely. You're a great point by you.
Speaker 4 (37:56):
Yeah, And this is also the rams seventh road game
and the last eleven, third consecutive and fifth in the
last six weeks. So you're saying to yourself that cumulative
effect of traveling. You know, they go to the East coast,
all the way to the East Coast and have to
play Carolina, and Carolina played them surprisingly little tougher than
they expected. Then they go home, and then they go
(38:19):
back to Chicago, that's halfway across the United States and
to play and some absolutely frigid temperatures. I mean it
was with a wind show right at about zero and
that has to take some effect. And then on the
other side, you know, everyone's raving about the Seattle defense now,
but on the wheel field off the short week, the
(38:41):
Rams actually rolled to five hundred and eighty one yards.
They were without DeVante Adams in that game, Matt Stafford,
he threw for nine point three yards per attempt. As
we all remember, the Seahawks trailed in that game thirty
to fourteen with thirteen fifty four remaining in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 3 (38:58):
Ye actually let me with with just over eight minutes
left in the fourth quarter they were down by sixteen.
Speaker 4 (39:06):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, So I mean, you know, this is crazy.
And and also you look at turnovers. You know, Seahawks
Sam here, but uh he had eight personal turnovers in
the three games against the LA defense if you go
back to last year's playoff game, and Stafford had zero.
(39:26):
So you can't think that that kind of margin is
going to continue. So there's some really good storylines here,
you know, as far as the game and the matchups,
you know these are you know, everyone will say, you know,
Brett Matthew Stafford is a much better quarterback. Let me
tell you something. I saw Stafford. I saw uh, you know,
(39:48):
both of these quarters back, so I've seen them up
close and personal and they are both very impressive. So
you know, it's it's sometimes people get caught up and
they're like, oh, you know, this quarterback is so much
better than that quarterback. A lot of it is schemes,
and that is part of it, but uh, you got
(40:08):
to think that also home field has to matter in something.
You know, a couple also, you know, off sides, illegal procedures,
uh could also play some part in this game. And
then and then and then finally you know, the officials.
I mean, officiating has been absolutely horrific here. And you know,
(40:28):
sometimes you got to say, who would they rather see here?
And I think if you had to choose one side,
you know, you might say that it might be Seattle here.
The Rams don't have a real big following, and I
just think they have maybe if they had to choose
between these two teams, maybe a little bit better story.
So it's going to be very very interesting and uh,
(40:52):
it's gonna be fun. But like I said, if you
think all of a sudden, you know the Sam Donald
Donald is gonna play as bad as he played in
the last game, think again, I've seen him play in
person when I went to Chicago game last year, when
he was playing up there, and trust me, he was
playing for the Vikings and I saw his ball whistle.
These guys can throw the football like like you can't
(41:14):
believe their arm strength. So I think it might come
down to even Sam Donold, does he turn the ball over,
you know, deep in his own territory. So that's been
his own bugaboo the last couple of years. But gonna
be a great matchup, So you tell me you go first,
which way are you leaning?
Speaker 2 (41:31):
Well?
Speaker 3 (41:32):
One thing also to kind of note, the crew chief
for Sunday's game will be Klay Martin, and in games
that he's officiated for the Rams, they are seven and
zero with Clay Martin. So just something to kind of
keep an eye on, not saying that it's going to
have an adverse effect on Seattle on Sunday. Now I've
(41:53):
looked at this and you know, you can I could
wake up, you know, and I felt different every day.
One day this week, I feel at the Rams, the
next day the Hawks, and then back and forth and
vacillating back and forth, and I just look at this
and yeah, I didn't want to see the Rams for
the third time. I wanted the Bears because I knew
the Seahawks would. It would be the coronation of a champion.
(42:14):
There's no way Caleb Williams was coming in here. That
being said, the number one defense in the NFL. When
you get to this time of the year, defense matters
both teams. You can almost like basically draw. If you
want to give Sean McVay the edge, certainly Matthew Stafford
has the edge over Sam Donald. But I believe in
this game that the Seattle elite defense, number one ranked
(42:39):
in the NFL points per game allowed, will be the
difference in this game, along with Kenny Walker and Sam Donald.
And I'm gonna give Sam Donald the benefit of the
doubt that he will not turn it over and if
he does, maybe once, and it won't be something that
really hinders and handicaps the Seahawks team. I will be there.
(43:01):
The Twelves will be on fire like they were last
Saturday night. Lumenfield is back and for this game, I
am picking the.
Speaker 2 (43:12):
See Hawks.
Speaker 3 (43:15):
See Hawks, see Hawks minus two and a half.
Speaker 2 (43:22):
Bet it now, wait for it, wait for it, Thank
me later.
Speaker 3 (43:28):
Seahawks win the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl over
either New England or Denver.
Speaker 2 (43:35):
It doesn't matter. What are you likely?
Speaker 4 (43:39):
All right? So I'm gonna take a different approach here,
not saying I disagree with you, but I just think
it's a little bit tougher in the margins or thinner.
I'm gonna look at the total totals forty six and
a half first game twenty one to nineteen, and Sam
Darnold was absolutely horrendous for interceptions. I don't think he's
(43:59):
gonna throw even more than one interception in this game.
So that being the case, there was forty points scored here,
and almost everything that could go wrong to keep a
game under happened. The weather gonna be you know, I
wouldn't say it's great. It's not Miami weather, but you
know it's gonna be in the high thirties, low forties.
Looks like there's a low chance for range. So I
(44:22):
think both quarterbacks are going to be able to operate.
You have two receivers, at least one on either side,
maybe two. You know, Cooper Cup a year ago or
two he was unguardable, and you got Devonte Adams a
year or two ago he was unguardable. You have your
even your second best receivers are not far removed from
(44:42):
being that good. So uh, the second game was thirty
eight to thirty seven. The totals forty six and a half.
I'm gonna go over. I think we're gonna see at
least a twenty seven to twenty three game and by
either team, and you know that that gets you a
fifty and it could be higher. So I think that's
(45:02):
the easier way to play this game. I'm looking for
a victory to help out my clients and to help
out everyone who's listening. I'm gonna go over forty six
and a half as my choice on the game.
Speaker 2 (45:13):
All right, So there you go.
Speaker 3 (45:15):
I'm gonna take the Seahawks minus two and a half.
Lee's gonna go over forty six and a half. We
appreciate Ian Ritchie from full Time Fantasy dot com and
Circus Sports for joining us all of you who listen
Go Hawks. Listen to MJ in the midday on Monday
ten am the one pm every day Monday through Friday.
(45:35):
And we appreciate the fine folks at FanDuel's Sportsbook, sou
Quamish Clearwater Casino Resort for the great Lee Sterling from
Paramounts Sports dot Com.
Speaker 2 (45:45):
I am Mark
Speaker 3 (45:46):
James MJ from MJ in the Midday Gohawks, and hopefully
we'll see you again right here on picking the Locks.
Your home for college football Saturdays and the NFL presents
Picking the Loves with Mark James and Lee Sterling, brought
to you by the fan Duel Sports Book at Suquamash
Clearwater Casino Resort. We're getting you ready for the weekends
games with Lee Sterling.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Here's your host, Mark James.
Speaker 3 (00:21):
It's a special Picking the Locks edition Conference Championship Weekend
edition right here on Seattle Sports Leader ninety.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Three to three kJ R FM.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Mark James, host of MJ in the midday ten am
to one pm.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Here with you along with my.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Partner in crime, the guy we've been doing Picking the
Locks all season long, the great Lee Sterling from Paramount
Sports dot Com.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
And Lee.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
We'll also bring on our special guests for this segment
as well. But Lee, here we are and the Seattle
Seahawks are getting ready to sixty minutes away from possibly
going back.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
To the Super Bowl for the first time in eleven years.
Speaker 4 (01:06):
Well, I mean and not just that some people are
labeling this game the pre super Bowl because whoever wins
this game is probably going to be the favorite going
into the Super Bowl and maybe my more than three points.
We'll have our guests talk about that but I would
see it at least as a three point favorite. So big,
big game, and these two teams know each other inside now.
(01:29):
In the first two games were crazy, and I don't
see any reason why we shouldn't expect a third great
game on Sunday.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
And by the way, Picking the Locks brought to you
by fan Duel sportsbook Suquamish Clearwater Casino Resorts on not
far from where our special guests and you've heard them
on with me every Friday at noon through football season
doing fantasy football and player props from full time Fantasy
dot Com.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
He's in charge of all of fantasy sports for the Circa.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Ian Ritchie Bainbridge Island's finest Jr's Dad, Ian Ritchie, Ian
your Hawks.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
Well now me, I'm there. I'm all about hours.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Ian, I got Ian, I'm gonna be there. I'm gonna
be there coming up on Sunday at three thirty. But
I gotta tell you, Ian, I am nervous.
Speaker 5 (02:18):
Yeah, I am too. I am too.
Speaker 6 (02:20):
I'm first of all, thanks for having me on, and
I appreciate being on with somebody as iconic in the
industry as Leasterling.
Speaker 5 (02:28):
So that's all I'll get down.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
Hold on, let's not let's not overrate him too much.
Come on, you know, you gotta give him his due.
Speaker 4 (02:37):
Man.
Speaker 5 (02:38):
I appreciate it, man, I really do.
Speaker 6 (02:39):
But get to the game. I'm really excited for the game.
We've had two great games with the Rams this year,
and I expect this just like Lisa, I expect this
to be the third great game. And I'm really excited
for what we got.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
Yeah, I just I was there a month ago and
that epic thriller that went to overtime where Sam Darnold's
horrible the first, you know, regulation, and then in over
time he just turned into Joe Montanna.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Who's absolutely literally perfect.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
He did not have any incompletions on that drive, unwavering
and then the two point conversion backup tight end at
third string tight end Eric Sober, and the Hawks win
and they've you know, Ian, they've not looked back since.
So it's great to see and one of the things
to Ian me and being here just under a year,
(03:24):
I just love seeing how much Seattle truly loves the Hawks.
I mean, you can't and this was even during the
summer or baseball season, can't go anywhere without people wearing
Hawks gear.
Speaker 6 (03:38):
I wear it down here in Las Vegas, and I
get stopped everywhere.
Speaker 5 (03:42):
People are rooting for the Seahawks. They really are.
Speaker 6 (03:44):
I get stopped everywhere wearing all my Hawks gear this year,
way more than in the past. And you know, I'll
tell you things like the drum line that we have
and things like that that they put on social media.
Speaker 5 (03:55):
It's just everybody loves it. Man. All the talk down
here is about the Seahawks.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Love it, absolutely love it.
Speaker 4 (04:00):
All.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
Right, Well, there is another game coming up first Pacific
time at noon, the.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Patriots and Broncos.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Unfortunately for Denver, Bonix is out broken ankle, and so
we're going to make this segment all about player props
ian in this game, Drake May versus former Patriots backup
Jared Stidham.
Speaker 6 (04:23):
Yeah, former Patriots backup.
Speaker 5 (04:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (04:27):
You know, Stidham's a tough one to handicap this week.
I think it's tough for the odds makers, it's tough
for us. You don't know what to expect. It's been
a long time since he's played a game, and you
don't really want to take Sean Payton's word for it
that he's going to air it out and let it rip.
So he's a tough one. That being said, we do
have some player props on the Denver side that we
do like through the air. So there are some good
(04:47):
ones in this game, all right, what do you like?
We like Drake May has a good value to start
out with the Patriots over one and a half touchdowns
at plus a dollar fifteen. If it was a minus number,
I'd be a little more hesitant, but at a plus
number a plus about fifteen, we really think there's really
good value there and think that's a good one to play.
We do like Courtland Sutton actually this week is over
(05:09):
under his four and a half catches. We have him
for six that's another plus number plus a dollar ten,
and we're aggressive on his yardage. I guess I'm on
the lead it rip side. We have him for eighty
four yards and is over under fifty and that's a
dollar fifteen minus, so we're very very aggressive there. One
play I want to point out that's interesting is Mims.
So it's actually this is a funny one because we
(05:32):
like Mims to get a carry this week for as
money as sounds for six yards as over unders one
and a half. So I think that Peyton's going to
give it to him on a we believe he's going
to give it to him at least once, it's not
a couple of times. So we really like Mems over
the one and a half rushing yards and real quick,
I'll throw in this backup. Quarterbacks tend to like the
tight ends, so don't be afraid on a couple of
(05:54):
long shot tight ends for touchdowns with Ingram and Troutman
Ingram plus five hundred this week in trout minus plus
one thousand, and we think those are reasonably good moonshots
to play if you want to take a chance.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
All right, So I know I'm looking at that too,
Marvin Mims over one and a half run shot, that's crazy.
Speaker 6 (06:13):
Yeah, all a few times and I'll let's give you
one more as we like. Vermondre with four catches is
over unders two and a half, and so we're bullish
on Rimandre to get a few catches there, more than
more than they had him. So the Denver defense can
be susceptible underneath to some things. So four catches two
and a half over under minus a buck twenty five.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
I I gotta ask you this, do you have something
for an interception for Drake may or Jiards did him.
Speaker 6 (06:39):
That's a great question. So on Stidham, we absolutely do.
So you know Sidham's a little expensive on it. Yeah,
you can laugh because it's true. His over under on
touchdowns is a half. We have him throwing a touchdown,
but it's minus two ten. So when something's minus two ten,
I don't recommend it at all, even though I think
it's gonna happen if you end up throwing it in
a parlay with a money line something that it's okay,
(07:00):
it's a little expensive, and I'm sure Lee's got a
lot of information you could share on that. We also
have them for a guaranteed interception that's also a minus
a dollar ninety not they've kind of priced us out
of playing Stidham interceptions and touchdowns.
Speaker 3 (07:12):
Oh, I hate when they Delee and I've talked about that.
There's a casino down in Florida that rhymes with card
sock and they are the worst at that. I absolutely Oh,
if you want to take you know, the Chicago Bears,
you know you get a plus one oh five, But
if you want to take the Rams minus one thirty,
(07:33):
I mean, like Jesus dude, Like, what are we doing here.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
I can't lee anything stand out to you.
Speaker 4 (07:39):
Well, what's interesting with Jared Stidham. I did watch them
in preseason and I made a couple of notes. Played
in the first two games and actually look really good.
The first preseason game. I know that it's very basic defense,
not many stunts and blitzes, but here was fourteen for
fifteen for one hundred and thirty six yards, two touchdowns,
(08:01):
no interceptions. Then he also played in the second game
and started, went sixteen for twenty three for two forty
and a half for two touchdowns and no interceptions against Arizona.
I actually think his mechanics are very good and I
was surprised that he was not able to get a
starting spot with someone. So, you know, credit to the
(08:22):
Denver ownership and their coaching staff for being able to
keep them around. The only question is after not taking
pretty much a snap other than kneeing down a couple
times this year and last year, you know how much
Russ is on him. But as far as a talent,
I think he's a talent that could be starting in
the NFL. And there's a reason why they signed him
(08:44):
to a two year contract. So I'm going to go
against him, probably not play anything at all as far
as his player props, just because of like you mentioned
some of the lines as far as minus two to ten,
you know, minus one ninety for some of these props.
I just you know, if it's even money, then I
can it's easier to pick aside. But I actually think
(09:07):
he He's a talented guy. Eight touchdowns to eight interceptions
and just a little over one thousand passing yards in
his career. But I think the right system, he could
end up being a starter Ian.
Speaker 3 (09:20):
What about Drake May rushing yards total in this game?
Would that be something that you would.
Speaker 6 (09:25):
Lean Well, Interestingly, we actually do have by the getting
your interception, we do have Drake maythoring interception and plus
a dollar eight US one away.
Speaker 5 (09:33):
So that's a good value on a plus.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
Very good value, very good.
Speaker 5 (09:38):
I believe that too.
Speaker 6 (09:39):
And then interestingly, and I was going to point this out,
we're actually under on his rushing his totals thirty point five,
and we had him for nineteen against that defense, So
we actually have him under on rushing yards this week.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
Okay, fair enough, all right, let's jump to the big one,
what I call the real Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Ram Seahawks the trilogy. Here we go Ian fire Away.
Speaker 6 (09:59):
Tell us what you like, all right, we'll make our
way down the list here. We like Donald to throw
two touchdowns. That's minus a dollar twelve. Wow an inches, Yeah,
minus a dollar twelve for two tds. We think that's
really good value there, and we have that. We have
Stafford for two touchdowns at minus a dollar thirty, and
we also have Stafford for an interception at minus a
dollar thirty. I don't like to go much higher than
(10:20):
a dollar thirty. I'm with Lee on those numbers.
Speaker 5 (10:22):
It's really tough on the prop bets. Tough is It's
tough enough.
Speaker 6 (10:24):
But we're a minus a dollar thirty on an interception
and minus a dollar thirty on two touchdowns from Stafford.
Speaker 3 (10:31):
Let me really jump in there real quickie, and do
you not have any interceptions for Sam Donald?
Speaker 2 (10:35):
None?
Speaker 6 (10:36):
We have zero, And as a matter of fact, I
didn't mention it because it makes me a little nervous.
We have them for zero interceptions at plus the buck
twenty five, but it makes me very nervous, so I
purposely didn't mention it.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
Okay, well, sorry I did, I did.
Speaker 4 (10:48):
Hey.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
In the seven eighth inning, you got a no hitteror
going I did it. Sorry, Yeah, that's okay.
Speaker 6 (10:54):
But we do have them for no interceptions at plus
a buck in a quarter, which be honest, is an
awesome value.
Speaker 5 (10:59):
It just makes me nerves. Right.
Speaker 6 (11:00):
We we know how Darnold can get sometimes. Now I'm
just hoping he does like he did last week and
actually Trent Dilford, but you know, no interceptions for him
this week on that uh. We we do like JSN
for a touchdown. It's I have seen great value on
JSN touchdowns week in week out. He's never more than
a minus a buck ten or about fifteen. He's even
money this week for a touchdown, and we really really
(11:23):
like that one a lot. So we have JSN for
a touchdown on that U we have Puka and and
and Devontae Adams both with seventy five percent chance of touchdowns.
They're both plus numbers. I don't believe in both of them.
One of them will probably score, so I don't I
don't necessarily recommend either those if you want to put
those guys in a round robin. They're both plus numbers.
We do like aj Barner and so I want to
(11:43):
make sure I pay out.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
I love it.
Speaker 6 (11:46):
Yeah, so yeah, so Barner's catches, he's his over undrunk
catches on reception three and a half and he's plus
a dollar twenty and and so you know his uh,
his yardage is twenty eight. We have him for thirty
four minus a buck eighteen. We have him for four
catches at a plus number. We think that's a great value. Interestingly,
his last two times, and I'm sure you're going to
(12:06):
bring this up, is you know he played against the
Rams on eleven sixteen, he was ten catches seventy yards
on eleven targets, and we played him in December he
was four catches forty nine yards on six targets. So
we think aj Barner is a really great play this
week for receptions. You could probably play the yardage as
well as a little bit closer, but the plus.
Speaker 5 (12:25):
Number three and a half is a really really good value.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
I like it.
Speaker 3 (12:28):
Anything on the guy who's gonna be now in the
role of Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry Kenny Walker. With
now that Zach Charboney tearing his acl being done for
the rest of the playoffs, Kenny Walker's rushing yards is
that something that you would look at possibly hitting over
in this ghaw.
Speaker 5 (12:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (12:47):
I was actually surprised because I thought we were very
bullish on him. We have the number one scoring running
back for the weekend, and and what I thought was
bullish until I looked at all the numbers. We have
him for ninety two rushing yards, but the oddsmakers have
to have him for eight eighty eight and a half.
Speaker 5 (13:00):
So they're giving him a lot of respect this week.
Speaker 6 (13:03):
You don't usually see an eighty eight and a half
over under on the running back. You don't even see
that with the James Cooks and the other guys. So
Walker's getting a lot of respect in that way. And
we have him for twenty five or ceed yards the
over under they have them again twenty three and a half.
They're bullish on it. We have him three catches, the
over unders two and a half. So we're all pretty
close in our numbers that we have, and the osmakers
were very bullish on Walker. We have Walker for seventy
(13:25):
five percent chance at a touchdown, which is minus a
dollar fifty five. Although I think he's going to score,
I usually don't weigh the dollar fifty five price.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
All right?
Speaker 4 (13:33):
Can I you know, I just come in here, real
quick question anything on George Hallani. Will you put out
any number on him? Because there is I'm hearing a
chance he might be activated, and you know, watching him
in preseason he looked like he was really good.
Speaker 5 (13:49):
He actually is good.
Speaker 6 (13:50):
So we actually have Jilani for four carries for fifteen
yards and one catch for seven We have him for
a twenty five percent chance at a touchdown also, and
my guess is, I haven't looked at the touchdown oz
I'm here as enormous, but we have him for a
twenty five percent chance at a goal line carry. So
that's a good point out. If you're looking for a moonshot,
that's that's a pretty good one. But we have four
carries fifteen yards.
Speaker 5 (14:09):
One thing I.
Speaker 6 (14:10):
Would mention is, you know, Kyrin Williams has.
Speaker 5 (14:13):
Some good games against US.
Speaker 6 (14:14):
In the two games against US, he had twelve carries
for ninety one yards twenty three carries for seventy yards.
The over under of this week is fifty three and
a half, so both times he's been over in that number.
So my gut says he's probably going to get that over.
We only have him projected by all the data at
fifty nine because we gave some love to Blake Korum.
Speaker 5 (14:33):
So I just want to point this out. There is
a discription.
Speaker 6 (14:36):
So we have Blake Koram for forty six yards this
week is over under his twenty eight and a half.
So there is some value there on a Blake Korum.
But I do believe Kyroen could potentially get over that
number as well. He was over at the first two times,
so there's a little bit of value. What I noticed,
and I'll just be real quick, what I noticed in
the numbers and looking at it is they've taken some
(14:57):
catches away from Puka and Davante and they kind of
re routed them toward Korum, Kyron and Ferguson Parkinson. So
you know, we do like Parkinson with four catches is
over unders two and a half, and we like Parkinson
for thirty eight yards is over under twenty four. So
we're a little bit more bullish on the tight ends
there than we are the receivers for the Rams.
Speaker 3 (15:18):
You know what, Parkinson former Seahawk and he has been
huge for the Rams over the course of the last month.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
He's come up big. He came up big.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
Against Chicago, and then the game before that, he caught
the game winning touchdown against Carolina on that drive where
they're going all the way down the field. The one
that stands out to me more than anything, and I
love it. I'm glad you and your staff at full
Time Fantasy dot Com field the same way. I love
the AJ Barner over three and a half catches. I
love that.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
I just do.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
I think there's gonna be a lot of the reason
why too. I think if and the Rams that's their weakest,
you know, link is that secondary. But if they do
everything they can and take JSN or Cooper Cup away,
then you know Sam's gonna have to check down at
AJ Barner and he's gonna be there to get perhaps
a lot of catches. So full Time Fantasy dot Com
(16:11):
Circus sports Ian Ritchie Ian, great stuff out of you,
and let's go Hawks on Sunday.
Speaker 6 (16:18):
Hey, go Hawks, and I'll throw one more out.
Speaker 2 (16:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (16:20):
Karen Ferguson plus six hundred on a touchdown. They seem
to like him on some big plays. He's had a
couple called back this year as well. He's a big
play tight end for them at plus six hundred in
a moonshot parlay that might be worth a chance, and
Parkinson's plus three twenty, so either one of the two
tight ends in that is worth a moonshot TD chance
in a kind of a fun parlay if you do it.
Thank you so much for having me on, Lee, It's
(16:41):
great to be on with you. I really appreciate it
and love you.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
Everybody, Go Hawks, There we go, go Hawks Ian Richie
check out his site full Time Fantasy dot Com. All right,
coming up next, Wow, before we get to what I
call the real super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
We'll do that in the final segment. Coming up next,
Lee and.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
I will break down the AFC Championship game and things
that we like in this game and what way to
lean and oh, I've got something that might surprise a
lot of people, So we'll get to that coming up next.
Right here on Picking the Locks, brought to you by
FanDuel Sportsbook, Suquamish Clearwater Casino Resort on Sports Radio ninety
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Speaker 1 (17:21):
Are you looking for a lock this weekend? You've come
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Speaker 3 (17:38):
Back on picking the Locks Conference Championship Weekend edition.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
As we get ready for Seahawks Rams, We're going to
save the best for last.
Speaker 3 (17:46):
Coming up in the final segment next, brought to you
by FanDuel Sportsbook, Suquamash Clearwater Casino Resort, Mark James from
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Seattle Sports Leader ninety three three KJRFM, and the Best
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Speaker 2 (18:00):
It's in Paramount Sports dot com.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
Lee Stirling, Lee, you got anything for the people, not
only for football season but for basketball season.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
Any promotions coming up?
Speaker 4 (18:09):
Yeah, we did well. First off, for the props. What
we're going to do is people love to play props.
I do. Player props have become huge. I mean it's
bigger than playing sides, I think for you right now
and for a lot especially the people that are just
getting into to wagering, it's fun. You have something on
the game, and let's be honest, these games are tough
this weekend, so why not look at player props. We
(18:32):
went twelve and two for our clients last weekend with
all the games, We've got a special ten games ten
player props. Ten player props combined both games just twenty
five bucks. So you know there's people out there charging
two five hundred and one thousand dollars. Give us a
try ten player props combined for the two games just
(18:52):
twenty five bucks. We think there's a good chance you'll win,
and we know if you win, you'll be back.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Yeah, no question about it. I've had and leaking in
Testa's lee. I don't know the percentage, but off the
top of your head, would you say that I've been
about over sixty sixty three percent on player props this year.
Speaker 4 (19:11):
Yeah, and the only problem you had was was last
week and had a couple that started off great. And
you know, sometimes these games they change on a dime.
Whether it's just so hard to predict. So I'm one
of these guys that believe it or not. You know,
I rate my games from ten to fifty units. I've
given out some Super Bowls as twenty to twenty five
(19:32):
unit plays. I know people are going to play at two, three,
five times their normal amunt I know it, But you know,
sometimes there's no edge and it can, you know, be
decided by one play. And for instance the Bears game
and overtime, all they needed to do, They're at the
fifty yard line, run three or four plays, get twenty
twenty five yards, kick a field, go and win. They
(19:54):
got greedy Miami Hurricanes. Miami's at the forty yard line
twenty two seconds to go in a college game, and
to get a first down the clock stops. You have
more than enough time, and they got greedy also, So
you know, some lessons to be learned there from these
coaches and also quarterbacks, you know, going into this weekend.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
Yeah, a great play. You were there on Monday night.
Speaker 3 (20:18):
You were there, and I you know, I got to
watch it, and I wish i'd been there, But then
after what happened, I'm glad I wasn't because I just
don't understand that. And you know, the Bears needed twenty
five to thirty yards. They were in field goal position.
Miami needed a touchdown. But they had was, they had Wisconsin,
they had Indiana because they have the same uniforms on
(20:40):
their heels and all Shannon Dawson, the offensive coordinator, need
to do. I don't blame Carson Beck yeah, he underthrew
it and Shamari Sharp picked him off from Miami Northwestern
High School. But all he needed to do was just
keep picking up like eight to twelve to fifteen yards.
Then once you get down between the seven and twenty
(21:00):
five yard line, then you can now start to swing
for the fences. You don't need to do that when
you just need to, you know, matriculate the ball down
the field. And I thought that was an error. And
here's the thing about it. I wish we would have
gotten dominated. Unfortunately we didn't. I mean when I say unfortunately,
because we could have, we would have and we should
(21:23):
have won the national championship on Monday night.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
We left that on the field.
Speaker 3 (21:29):
We gave away a touchdown on a block punt in
our own end zone, we missed the field goal, and
then you know the pick at the end. But like
I've said, and I've said it on my show all
week long, especially when you get to this time of
the year, whether it's a college Football National Championship semi final,
(21:49):
AFC NFC Championship, or a Super Bowl or even a
wild card divisional playoff round, it's not just about the
plays you make.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
It's about the mistakes.
Speaker 3 (21:59):
You don't make, or in this case for the Bears
and the Hurricanes, the mistakes that they did make. So
that's the difference right there. That's a very thin line
between winning and losing, surviving and advancing, and it's the
mistakes that you do or don't make.
Speaker 2 (22:16):
And that's just it. The team, I.
Speaker 3 (22:18):
Mean, Houston Texans are like they had a clear cut
path to Super Bowl sixty to face Bo Nicks and
the Denver Bronx excuse me, Jared Stidham in the Denver
Broncos and their quarterback who's regress worse than Lebron's hairline
since he came the league two years ago.
Speaker 4 (22:38):
C J.
Speaker 3 (22:39):
Stroud threw four interceptions in the first half and he
killed his team and completely shot themselves in the foot
and cost them a rematch with the Seahawks or the
Rams in Super Bowl sixty.
Speaker 4 (22:53):
Well, it's a combination also, the offensive coordinator. You're playing
some bad weather conditions. I mean it was raining and
it's really tough to grip of football snowing. Yeah, combination
the both, and that is really tough for a quarterback
who's not used to it. He should have known that.
The offensive coordinator and you have to adjust, you know,
(23:13):
you don't, you know, do long, delayed, drawn out plays,
and that's what they were trying to do. And when
that happens is a better chance you're going to get
hit when you're throwing the football. But you know, CJ's
drive like he had no clue. There was defensive linemen
coming at him. I don't know what where he's been,
where his head was, but it looked like he was
und aneather just just slow. He was just very slow
(23:36):
to process everything. And it ended up costing him because
the Patriots were sure to be taken there. Any other
team that that had decent talent probably wins that day.
But the Patriots survive and move on. And that's what
you know makes this game interesting. Here can a young
team with a very young quarterback go out out West
(24:00):
and you know, take on a team that has a
really good defense, number one defense in the NFL.
Speaker 3 (24:07):
Good teams win, great teams cover, and in this league
in the regular season, the Seattle Seahawks, the Rams, and
the Patriots with a top three in point differential and
the top three against the number. Conversely, the Denver Broncos
were seven to ten in the regular season you can
(24:28):
make it eight and ten after covering versus Buffalo in
a very controversial ending type game, a lot of calls
that people didn't quite sit right with. So in this game,
Sean Payton, they started off as a five and a
half point underdog, Lee, I'm seeing around four and a
half right now. All I'm gonna say is this, before
I get your thoughts, do not discount the Denver Broncos
(24:51):
because Sean Payton is going to devise a game plan
that's gonna put Jared's Didham in a position to succeed
and not low risk, high reward. And to me, if
you're talking about value and you want to get value,
and that's the number one thing that we talk about
when it comes to gambling, I'm looking at this game,
(25:15):
the Patriots and the Broncos, and I'm telling you right now,
I love Denver as a money line plus two hundred
right now. To me, you talk about value, I love
that right then and there. I'm not saying they're gonna
do it, but if anyone is going to discount this team,
you might regret it.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
What are your thoughts on this gamely?
Speaker 4 (25:39):
Well, very similar to the Miami game on Monday, night.
So you have a Miami team that was a seven
and a half point underdog at home. Miami's defense, I
mean didn't play their best game, but still played well
enough for them to cover and have a chance to
win the game. I think it's it's kind of more
the same here with Denver, very tough place to play.
(26:00):
You can't just all of a sudden, get on a
plane and forty eight hours before the game expect to,
you know, go out there and play like it's just
any other field. We've seen many teams go up there.
There's guys sucking win, they can't last the whole game,
chasing a quarterback or you know, on offense, blocking tough
defensers players. So I think that that plays into it
(26:23):
here a home field, very very tough, and it played
into it Monday, Miami covered, they were getting seven and
a half. They lose by six. Here's what I would suggest.
I would suggest, if you like Denver like you and
I do, you put you know, seventy five maybe up
(26:44):
to eighty percent of your wager on them plus four
and a half because they can still lose let's say
by one, two, three, four points and you cover and
then put maybe a quarter to a thirty year wager
on the money line. You know, if if they cover
happy like I was Monday night, if they cover and
win the game out right, you know, then you're joining
(27:05):
Mark and I, you know, going to the Bahamas probably
after the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Yeah, so yeah, it's it's uh, this is a game.
I mean, it's gonna be a tough test for Drake May.
And listen, you know Drake May, Like, yeah, he had
three touchdown passes. He's been sloppy, he's had fumbles, and
he had an interception on on you know, Sunday, uh
in that game versus Houston. So Drake May, he's he's
he's kind of been CJ stroud ish in these playoffs.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
And let's face it, yeah it's.
Speaker 3 (27:36):
His second year and more than likely he's gonna finish
as the runner up to Matthew Stafford for the MVP.
But this is his first soire into the playoffs and
he's doing it his second year. I mean, I look
at the totality of the NFL regular season into the postseason.
I think the two most young improved quarterbacks from last
(27:58):
year to this year, I don't think they are.
Speaker 2 (28:01):
Drake May and Caleb Williams, like both of those guys.
Speaker 3 (28:04):
I mean you look at the rookie years and I mean, god,
Caleb Williams, that Matt Eberflus, Drake may had, Drod Mayo.
Now they've got Ben Johnson and Mike Rabel. So all
that's another thing too, Lee. We got to just say
this as well. All four teams have excellent coaches. I
(28:25):
believe on the NFC, which we're gonna talk about in
the next segment. Has this take away any Reid. I
believe the two best coaches in the NFL right now,
one in one A are Sean McVay and Mike McDonald.
I think those are as good as it gets. John Schneider,
Seahawks president of football Operations, General Mayor, just won the
(28:48):
Executive of the Year a couple of days ago. So
this is why you know, at the end of the day, Yeah,
Jimmy's and Joe's coaching matters. Look at the talent they
have in Dallas, Dak Prescott, you look at obviously Ceedee Lamb,
George Pickens, you know, you look at what they've done
(29:10):
this year, and I mean Dallas Cowboys stydn't make the playoffs,
so coaching mattersly, especially at this time of the year.
Speaker 4 (29:19):
Yeah, and just look at Monday night, Kurt Signetti, his
play calls on third and fourth down were probably the difference.
So it's not that Mario Christvall made any mistakes, No,
didn't make mistakes. But great coaches call that great play.
When they need they need to, they dial it up.
So I just think that you know, both of these
teams have quarterbacks that are either young or inexperience, so
(29:43):
they're going to limit it. They're not going to push
the ball down the field as much as they normally do.
You're going to see a lot of screens, and I
think Denver's going to slow the game down and they
want to make it six seven, eight possessions for the game.
They don't want to make this a shootout, you know,
where it's thirty eight five. They want to see few
possessions and they want to control the ball on the
(30:04):
clock and not have their defense on the field for
the whole game. So I think that's important also. So
that's I think why we both end up liking Denver here.
Speaker 3 (30:13):
Plus the points, yeah I do too, and also get
value on the money line as well. Coming up next
to me the Real super Bowl. I will be there
Sunday at three point thirty. Seahawks Rams the trilogy first One,
Unbelievable sequel better and coming up on Sunday, Wow, the
(30:34):
Real super Bowl and why whoever wins should be given
the Vince Lombardi Trophy On Picking the Locks?
Speaker 1 (30:39):
Are you looking for a lock this weekend? You've come
to the right place. Now back to Picking the Locks
with Mark James and Lee Sterling, brought to you by
the fan Duel Sports Book at Squamish clear Water Casino
Resort on Sports Radio ninety three point three kjr FM.
Speaker 3 (30:56):
The final segment on Picking the Locks Conference champ Being
Ship Edition, Mark James MJ from MJ to Midday and
Seaou Sports Leader ninety three to three KJRFM, along with
the Great Least Turning, Best Sports any Kapernamerica Paramount sports
dot com. You can also give m acauley give them
the number, the one eight hundred number if they want
(31:16):
your VIP picks.
Speaker 4 (31:18):
YEP, it's eight hundred, four hundred nine seven four one.
Again the number eight hundred four hundred nine seven four one.
So also check out our website. It's Paramount Sports dot
com and we have videos up at all time. You
can see my results for the last five years. A
lot of other handicappers, you know, they'll tell you they're great,
(31:39):
you see some just absolutely outlandish claims like you know,
twenty three and one last twenty four picks just can't
be done. So we put our results for the last
five years out there so you can see every single
game I've given my clients so over the last five years.
And also I know this is ending here, but we'll
(32:00):
continue through the Super Bowl. Will have a segment also,
yeah before the Super Bowl with.
Speaker 3 (32:05):
H although yeah, the boss Man too, I think might
want us, especially if the Seahawks take care of business.
I think we're going to be doing a Super Bowl
Picking the Locks edition, probably live from Radio Rows. So
just just I have a feeling that that could.
Speaker 2 (32:20):
Yeah, I have an inclination that you know.
Speaker 3 (32:22):
And by the way, and I you know, we'll wait
to give our picks at the end on the Seahawks
ram game. But it's been so much fun and it
is another thing too, just to add to what you said,
these scamby cappers out there, that that if first of all,
if there's a slate of NFL games and they're giving
out like anywhere between eight to twelve picks. They're frauds.
(32:49):
They're absolute frauds that they might as well. They're just
basically picking their nose. Listen, the real sharps, the real
pros and handicappers likely and yours truly are the one
less is more. Now, some weekends, you know what, you
might have five on an NFL Sunday, somebody might have two,
(33:09):
usually about three because.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
You know, especially with player props.
Speaker 3 (33:13):
But you know, so for me, I'm someone and I've
gotten really into player props. I've had a lot of
success last season and especially this year's Lee as it
can attest to that. Yeah, you know, there's a guy
who works in sports radio for like thirty five years
whose name will go unmentioned, and he gives out eighty
five picks a weekend and I'm like, dude, you're such
(33:34):
a fraud. We're not gonna say his name, but I'll
leave it alone at that. But regardless, yeah, be careful.
You know the people who are reputable, the people that
you know. And listen, Lee and I have told you,
just like anybody else, we're gonna lose two. And we've
had weeks Lee had a week he went winless. I
had a week where I had one win. And you know,
(33:56):
but we're always gonna be transparent and honest because this
stuff is hard, trust us, you know. I mean, if
it was easy, everybody be doing it. It's called gambling
for a reason because you could win or you could lose.
If it was called winning, everyone want to do it,
but it's gambling. So but we've got enough, you know,
knowledge and information and sources to be able to handicap
(34:20):
these games and plays to where we feel that we
have a distinct advantage. And don't forget. This show is
brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook Suquamish Clearwater Casino Resort solely.
The first time these two teams faced each other, Sam
Darnold through four picks, but the Seahawks defense was absolutely ridiculous,
(34:42):
holding the Rams in check. And I came in out
of that game, even though the Hawks lost that game,
and I said to myself, I feel like Seattle is
the better team.
Speaker 2 (34:54):
That was back in mid November.
Speaker 3 (34:56):
Then the Rams come up here to lumen Field just
over a month ago on December eighteenth, and they go
for over five hundred and nearly six hundred yards of
total offense. It goes to overtime and the Seahawks win.
But in that game, I felt coming out McVeigh oh
coach Mike McDonald and the Rams are a better team.
(35:19):
But guess what, Neither one of those games matter anymore.
All that matters is what happens on Sunday. Because I said,
this is the real Super Bowl. I believe Roger Goodell
and his suits on Park Avenue should show up to
Lumenfield on Sunday and award the Vince Lombardi Trophy to
the winner of this game. That's how confident I am
(35:40):
that whoever's gonna win this game will win Super Bowl sixty.
That being said, I'm nervous from a Seahawks standpoint because
you're going up against one of the greatest quarterbacks in
NFL history, Matthew Stafford. He's won a Super Bowl in
a Super Bowl MVP, and he's gonna win a regular
season MVP in the NFL Honors is announced on Thursday night,
(36:02):
three days before the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (36:03):
And you got Sean mcvayley.
Speaker 3 (36:06):
He's got the most wins in the playoffs for any
coach under the age of forty. That is ten wins, unbelieve,
more than the late great Don Shula, who you know
very well. So you're going up against guys who have
been there before. Sean McVay has been in two Super Bowls,
Stafford's been to one, and it's a tough matchup. Also,
(36:30):
this is the third time in conference Championship game history
that the number one offense is facing the number one defense,
and in the previous two meetings, the number one defense
has won that game. The Eagles in nineteen eighty over
the Dallas Cowboys. Okay, and yeah, in twenty fourteen the
(36:52):
Seahawks Russell Wilson in the Allegian of Boom over Aaron
Rodgers and the Packers.
Speaker 2 (36:57):
So now this will be the third.
Speaker 3 (36:59):
Time that this is happening since nineteen seventy the AFL
NFL merger. So in this gamely, with all that being said,
what's the things that stand out to you the most?
Speaker 4 (37:11):
Okay, So a couple for Seattle are you know they
ran a kickoff back for a touchdown last weekend and
the guy that did it, Shaheed, also had a fifty
eight yard punt return for a touchdown against the Rams
the last time they played. So I think that they're
going to be very cautious as far as that's concerned.
You might see them kick the ball out of bounds.
(37:31):
They want to make sure he does not have a
chance to return a punt or kickoff for a touchdown
against him. Also, Seattle won the most recent meeting thirty
eight thirty seven, which is very rare because they were
zero to three in turnover March. You almost never see that,
like less than four percent of the time in the
NFL game, So.
Speaker 2 (37:51):
Very rare, very rarely. You're a great point by you.
Speaker 4 (37:56):
Yeah, And this is also the rams seventh road game
and the last eleven, third consecutive and fifth in the
last six weeks. So you're saying to yourself that cumulative
effect of traveling. You know, they go to the East coast,
all the way to the East Coast and have to
play Carolina, and Carolina played them surprisingly little tougher than
they expected. Then they go home, and then they go
(38:19):
back to Chicago, that's halfway across the United States and
to play and some absolutely frigid temperatures. I mean it
was with a wind show right at about zero and
that has to take some effect. And then on the
other side, you know, everyone's raving about the Seattle defense now,
but on the wheel field off the short week, the
(38:41):
Rams actually rolled to five hundred and eighty one yards.
They were without DeVante Adams in that game, Matt Stafford,
he threw for nine point three yards per attempt. As
we all remember, the Seahawks trailed in that game thirty
to fourteen with thirteen fifty four remaining in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 3 (38:58):
Ye actually let me with with just over eight minutes
left in the fourth quarter they were down by sixteen.
Speaker 4 (39:06):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, So I mean, you know, this is crazy.
And and also you look at turnovers. You know, Seahawks
Sam here, but uh he had eight personal turnovers in
the three games against the LA defense if you go
back to last year's playoff game, and Stafford had zero.
(39:26):
So you can't think that that kind of margin is
going to continue. So there's some really good storylines here,
you know, as far as the game and the matchups,
you know these are you know, everyone will say, you know,
Brett Matthew Stafford is a much better quarterback. Let me
tell you something. I saw Stafford. I saw uh, you know,
(39:48):
both of these quarters back, so I've seen them up
close and personal and they are both very impressive. So
you know, it's it's sometimes people get caught up and
they're like, oh, you know, this quarterback is so much
better than that quarterback. A lot of it is schemes,
and that is part of it, but uh, you got
(40:08):
to think that also home field has to matter in something.
You know, a couple also, you know, off sides, illegal procedures,
uh could also play some part in this game. And
then and then and then finally you know, the officials.
I mean, officiating has been absolutely horrific here. And you know,
(40:28):
sometimes you got to say, who would they rather see here?
And I think if you had to choose one side,
you know, you might say that it might be Seattle here.
The Rams don't have a real big following, and I
just think they have maybe if they had to choose
between these two teams, maybe a little bit better story.
So it's going to be very very interesting and uh,
(40:52):
it's gonna be fun. But like I said, if you
think all of a sudden, you know the Sam Donald
Donald is gonna play as bad as he played in
the last game, think again, I've seen him play in
person when I went to Chicago game last year, when
he was playing up there, and trust me, he was
playing for the Vikings and I saw his ball whistle.
These guys can throw the football like like you can't
(41:14):
believe their arm strength. So I think it might come
down to even Sam Donold, does he turn the ball over,
you know, deep in his own territory. So that's been
his own bugaboo the last couple of years. But gonna
be a great matchup, So you tell me you go first,
which way are you leaning?
Speaker 2 (41:31):
Well?
Speaker 3 (41:32):
One thing also to kind of note, the crew chief
for Sunday's game will be Klay Martin, and in games
that he's officiated for the Rams, they are seven and
zero with Clay Martin. So just something to kind of
keep an eye on, not saying that it's going to
have an adverse effect on Seattle on Sunday. Now I've
(41:53):
looked at this and you know, you can I could
wake up, you know, and I felt different every day.
One day this week, I feel at the Rams, the
next day the Hawks, and then back and forth and
vacillating back and forth, and I just look at this
and yeah, I didn't want to see the Rams for
the third time. I wanted the Bears because I knew
the Seahawks would. It would be the coronation of a champion.
(42:14):
There's no way Caleb Williams was coming in here. That
being said, the number one defense in the NFL. When
you get to this time of the year, defense matters
both teams. You can almost like basically draw. If you
want to give Sean McVay the edge, certainly Matthew Stafford
has the edge over Sam Donald. But I believe in
this game that the Seattle elite defense, number one ranked
(42:39):
in the NFL points per game allowed, will be the
difference in this game, along with Kenny Walker and Sam Donald.
And I'm gonna give Sam Donald the benefit of the
doubt that he will not turn it over and if
he does, maybe once, and it won't be something that
really hinders and handicaps the Seahawks team. I will be there.
(43:01):
The Twelves will be on fire like they were last
Saturday night. Lumenfield is back and for this game, I
am picking the.
Speaker 2 (43:12):
See Hawks.
Speaker 3 (43:15):
See Hawks, see Hawks minus two and a half.
Speaker 2 (43:22):
Bet it now, wait for it, wait for it, Thank
me later.
Speaker 3 (43:28):
Seahawks win the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl over
either New England or Denver.
Speaker 2 (43:35):
It doesn't matter. What are you likely?
Speaker 4 (43:39):
All right? So I'm gonna take a different approach here,
not saying I disagree with you, but I just think
it's a little bit tougher in the margins or thinner.
I'm gonna look at the total totals forty six and
a half first game twenty one to nineteen, and Sam
Darnold was absolutely horrendous for interceptions. I don't think he's
(43:59):
gonna throw even more than one interception in this game.
So that being the case, there was forty points scored here,
and almost everything that could go wrong to keep a
game under happened. The weather gonna be you know, I
wouldn't say it's great. It's not Miami weather, but you
know it's gonna be in the high thirties, low forties.
Looks like there's a low chance for range. So I
(44:22):
think both quarterbacks are going to be able to operate.
You have two receivers, at least one on either side,
maybe two. You know, Cooper Cup a year ago or
two he was unguardable, and you got Devonte Adams a
year or two ago he was unguardable. You have your
even your second best receivers are not far removed from
(44:42):
being that good. So uh, the second game was thirty
eight to thirty seven. The totals forty six and a half.
I'm gonna go over. I think we're gonna see at
least a twenty seven to twenty three game and by
either team, and you know that that gets you a
fifty and it could be higher. So I think that's
(45:02):
the easier way to play this game. I'm looking for
a victory to help out my clients and to help
out everyone who's listening. I'm gonna go over forty six
and a half as my choice on the game.
Speaker 2 (45:13):
All right, So there you go.
Speaker 3 (45:15):
I'm gonna take the Seahawks minus two and a half.
Lee's gonna go over forty six and a half. We
appreciate Ian Ritchie from full Time Fantasy dot com and
Circus Sports for joining us all of you who listen
Go Hawks. Listen to MJ in the midday on Monday
ten am the one pm every day Monday through Friday.
(45:35):
And we appreciate the fine folks at FanDuel's Sportsbook, sou
Quamish Clearwater Casino Resort for the great Lee Sterling from
Paramounts Sports dot Com.
Speaker 2 (45:45):
I am Mark
Speaker 3 (45:46):
James MJ from MJ in the Midday Gohawks, and hopefully
we'll see you again right here on picking the Locks.
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