Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Rockets Fans, Welcome to The Rockets Launch Pod, an exclusive
podcast from the home of the Rockets, Sports Talk seven
ninety Red Nation. Get Ready, Ready, Get Ready. The Rockets
Launch Pod starts now.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Welcome aboard, Welcome back to another new episode of The
(00:50):
Rockets Launch Pod, presented by Clutch Fans. I'm Ben Dubo's
He's Powell Alves, where your hosts. You can follow me
on social media at Bend Bo's at Palo Alves, NBA
and the show at Launch Pods seven to ninety on
X where if you hit at the Link Street you
can support friends, partner sponsors to the program. All that
good stuff. Anyway, jumping into today's show, it is Tuesday,
(01:15):
the thirty first of March, the final day of the month.
Rockets back in action tonight against the New York Knicks
nationally televised game on NBC. A rematchup that game from
Madison Square Garden right after the All Star break. Perhaps
the most brutal loss of the season. I say perhaps
because the Rockets might have outdone themselves last week with
the thirteen point collapse in overtime against the Minnesota Timberwolves,
(01:38):
the biggest blown overtime lead in modern NBA history. So
it's a shame that we have to make that comparison,
but regardless, it is an opportunity for the Rockets to
get some redemption against a good team. Rockets are forty
five and twenty nine, tied per fifth in the West,
so in terms of the race for potentially having home
court advantage in the first round, top four seats get that.
(02:00):
It's a game they probably need to win. Rockets are
twenty five and ten at home this season, but just
twenty and nineteen on the road. I think more than
any standings implications where even with the recent losses they're
still right in the mix. Spots between number three and
number six in the Western Conference standings are all tightly
compact at this point, I think the Rockets just need
(02:21):
to see themselves go out and have a good game
against quality opponent and that's what tonight represents an opportunity
to get. And then you have a couple of games
after that that you should be able to win. It's
a three game homestand tonight against the Knicks is the
most difficult one. Then you've got the Bucks on Wednesday
night tub of a back to back, and the Utah
Jazz the Tanking Utah Jazz on Friday. So as far
(02:44):
as today's show, we're now within two weeks of the
playoffs final eight games of the season, so we're going
to be looking ahead. What do the Rockets need to
get better at as they get ready for a first
run series that'll start the weekend of April eight, eighteenth.
But we'll start by looking at the positives. They do
enter today on a two game winning streak, and the
(03:07):
biggest reason for their recent success is something of a
resurgence from all per in Shinoon. He scored thirty or
more points in three of his last four games, but
most notably, over seven games since coming back from a
back injury, a stretch beginning March eighteenth against the Lakers,
Shingoon is averaging twenty four point nine points, nine point
(03:28):
three rebounds, seven point one assist, one point six blocks
per gade, shooting above sixty two percent overall and almost
sixty seven percent true shooting, so the true shooting has
improved for a while. I had heard if you listened
to my Clutch Fans live postgame shows with Dave Hartesty,
I had talked to someone in the organization who said
(03:48):
about a week ago that they were noticing some positive
signs in terms of his motor, the defensive intensity, the
attention to detail. The results in terms of wins and
losses for the team have been mix Basically, the Rockets
have had a two game winning streak followed by a
two game losing streak, and then the same pattern repeated itself.
That's been the case for the last eight games, so
(04:11):
it remains to be seen what it means for the
collective and whether they can make some noise in the playoffs.
But even if we just look at it individually, Pawlow,
you've talked about Shingoon a lot this season, his apparent
regression from last year. Even if it doesn't necessarily translate
to team's success, there is something important to seeing that
all per in Shangoon heading into the twenty twenty six
(04:33):
offseason can be something of a cornerstone player for your future.
He is still just twenty three years old and a
two time All Star, So Powlo, let's start there in
terms of what the Rockets can potentially do in the
playoffs and also what it means for your outlook on
Shingoon entering the offseason. If this continues. If you get
(04:56):
something close to this version of Shangoon the rest of
the way, how much does it change your assessment of
Shin Gooon relative to when we last parted a couple
of weeks ago, when you were still pretty down on it.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
Yeah, as far as the outcome of this team, are
kind of the kancers looking into the playoffs of this team,
opron Chingun being a cornerstone pizza pleast on offense is
a bit of a game change, and I don't think
it it turns them into, you know, a championship contenter.
We've talked at Nazim about what we thought the limitations
were for this team and and where they sit at
(05:30):
the moment. They still don't strike me as a team
that can just catchlighting like lightning in a battle. But
Changun being a lot better on offense the solve half
of the equation of you know, typically the typically with
the type of center of senator that oppern Chingun is
you typically want. He has to be such a great
force on offense that it outweighs you know, his defensive limitations. Uh,
(05:54):
And of course I think I do think that within
you know, the type of center, type of offensive, Heubl Chengun
is he is you know, better defensively than he would expect,
which gives him some some swack on offense. But if
he able to be you know, a bona fide offensive,
start with hit what he has been since he came
back from those two games that he didn't play and
(06:17):
and then that was part of the argument when he
was playing poorly, when when he was having you know,
issues with his touch that he was playing through injury
and and and and he's been tough in playing through injury.
That's both hopereous periods in his career. If that two
game break truly was him getting over the hump from
an injury perspective, and we had heard, you know, over
(06:38):
over the week prior that in the effort had been
ranking ramping up with Shane un If that's something that's
you know, trending upwards and and and it's started blipping
the raidar and it's something that you know he can
build upon. I do think that helps Rockets massively because
now all of a sudden, you're not depending on kV
and his decision making in his turnovers as great as
(06:59):
he is offensively scoring, if you're scoring you now have
someone who can reliably take pressure off, and you know,
like it or not, Kat is an all time great,
but I does need someone like that, and we've seen
time and time again brought the season that when that's
not happening, the team struggles mightily. And we, I think
can pretty safely assume at this point that this team
(07:21):
is not going to flip a cord or it's not
going to turn the corner defensively, so perhaps their easiest
path to a good playoff run is just getting hard
offensively and just trying to run teams over on that end.
So Shingun being better or being this much better is
definitely something that made Chinky outlook going into the playoffs.
I still don't think it makes them a threat to
(07:43):
a team like the Thunder or in my in my case,
the First Wife. Do think our tier above as well,
just because of the impact that Wenby has, but it
does turned upwards not only for the season, but for
the next season as well. And I think the biggest
thing perhaps you know, obviously they shoulting number are really
important and we've kind of taken those for granted going
into the beginning of last season with UH and then
(08:05):
he had this you know, elongated swamp, which that had
some weeks where where it looked to be getting better
but then eventually regressed again. To me, the biggest deal,
especially for this, for this, for this stretch, is the
turnover issues, right, And when you look at it, yes,
(08:26):
he's had like he's had won five turnover game, which
is which is rough against Minnesota, but him limiting those,
him limiting turnovers is that important on a team that
can cleaner, can's kind of win the possession battle as
as heavily as they used to back when they were
the best offensive rebounding team and then back when they
(08:48):
were just a terrific defensive team. Right, if that's not
the case anymore, and then you gotta take better care
of the ball, and I think he's been doing that
the last few games. And so that to address how
this impacts going into the playoffs, going into next season,
I'm not sure how much it impacts it because I've
said in previous spots that I do believe that if
(09:12):
Fred's fully ready to go and everybody is able to
be on the same pit, and then we get Steven
Adams back, then you know, I think the best path
is probably too ready to back with those two extra pieces,
because whatever changes are gonna make, they're not probably not
going to be as high impact as just getting two
bona fide starters who are taking up what thirty five
(09:34):
thirty seven million of your cap space you know, back
onto the team, Like those are two huge upgrades that
the Rockers can get in the off season. So Kingoan
playing better, I guess, makes it less likely that you
pursue a move such as possibly on a straight But
that was pretty far down the backing morder the alcomists,
at least as far as my eyes looking at it.
(09:57):
Beyond that, I do think that England playing back and
looking better going into the off season maybe makes you
look at you know, if the chemistry is totally not there,
and then you know, I think there was some overreaction
to it. But that clip with our reason struck me
says just a tiny bit of shade towards Katie. I know,
(10:20):
I know Shangun's not no native English speaker, right, but
it didn't seem like they were fully you know that,
It doesn't seem to me like they're fully cohesive unit. Obviously,
you can grab whatever highlights you want other the games
and there are moments where where it looks like they are,
but it might have impact into the off season if
(10:41):
you want to read tool around the core without Kad
and you want to spend with KD or try to
kind of reorganize the team like that, if you believe
that what kind of sap the mojo out of this
team was in part at least Kat, or if you
don't think that that those relationships are mendebal, or if
you think that they're just you know, kind of trying
(11:02):
to weather the storm until the off season comes. I
do think that Singun laying better makes it more likely
that they may pursue or they may pursue a different
type of team building approach. But as I said before,
you know, just running it back with Fred being back,
potentially with a better Dan finish Smith, although I would
advocate for a change that just seems like it hadn't
(11:23):
worked out and Steven Adams being back is the most
likely scenario I think. You know, this week, we've seen
a lot of reports about Houston wanting to trade for
Rianna's impressing hard to trade Forreeannas you know, obviously we're
not in the room, but what we hear things, and
I don't think that that's that there's as huge of
(11:44):
a push with them the rockets to do a Yanni
straight as it's been reported. And I'm not saying it's
I'm not shying it's not gonna happen. I'm just saying
it doesn't seem like, yeah, it doesn't feel like it's optional,
and it felt like a weird timing for so many
people to be talking about it at the same time.
(12:04):
But you know, going back to to Shangun, obviously, Plan
A will be bringing everybody back, but even beyond that,
on a more you know, long term, few years from
the road perspective, Plan A will always be to have
Shangun be in like a core piece of the puzzle,
because even if you have reservations about archtyps and have
(12:26):
reservations about you know, intentional effort issues with this defense
or whatever it may be, they got Shangun on a
five year deal that's significantly below market value, and so
Shangun panning out, it's just been exponentially more kind of
rewarding then it would be for a guy that's you know,
just making max money or that that's wing that's being
(12:48):
overlay like that's a bargain contract, which does give keeping
Shenghun some leeway from guy building perspectives. But you know,
Plan A is always for Shangun to pan out, and
that's overwhelmingly the best case scenario for the Rockets. So
Shingle being back to, you know, the offensive way that
we know he can be, will never you know, not
(13:12):
be perhaps besides and amend thumbs and you know, breakthrough
to being a one A or a one bee guy
a type of guy is the best thing that can
happen for the Rockets, if that makes sense. So it
does have that impact long term beyond just this offseason.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
So let me phrase it a slightly different way. If
Shingoon maintained something close to this level of play and
extends it into the playoffs, what does that mean in
your eyes for this offseason? Because I have wondered if
any of these young guys is going to be a
playoff riser, and perhaps this is the year it can
(13:56):
sort of be the n verse of last year. You know,
I've thought a lot the last few weeks when it's
become increasingly clear that this regular season just is what
it is. And at this point, forty five and twenty nine,
they have to go seven to one just to match
last season's win total. They're certainly not going to be
number two in the West. They have to go eight
to no to exceed it. So they're probably gonna fall
(14:16):
short on basically every level. And this trend of letting
close gains slip away, not having crunch time execution, at
least for the regular season, it's defined this team. It
is what it is, and it's defined some of these
players as well. However, we saw last year when it
was the exact opposite, and they basically overachieved all of
(14:37):
their expectations for the regular season, and yet they go
out sad in the first round. They lose to the
hated Warriors, they lose a home game seven, and it
did cast a little bit of a shadow over the offseason,
and I think it played a role in them parting
ways with Jalen Green in the eventual Kevin Durant trade.
So there is a world where the opposite happens this year,
(14:58):
where maybe they're the five or the sixth seed, but
just like you know, a year ago, it was Minnesota
in the sixth seed and next thing you know, they're
in the Western Conference finals. All of a sudden, if
the Rockets win a playoff series or two, then perhaps
we're looking at this season and some of the players
in a different light, and I think there's a case
to be made. You know, the playoffs could offer a
(15:18):
lot of these especially younger players, a chance to start fresh.
You know, Ima Udoka after the Minnesota game, he referred
to that being the worst loss yet in terms of
their just late game collapses. I think, at least to
some extent, it's weighed on these guys, and I think
when you get to the playoffs and you get to
(15:39):
the final few games of the regular season, at this point,
there's no real ability to change the narrative. As far
as the regular season, it just is what it is.
I think to an extent, until very recently, they've been
hoping to chart it around that making one or two
tweaks is going to potentially get them the extra bucket
(15:59):
that they need or the extra stop, and all of
a sudden, they can get back to what we all
envisioned this team being at the start of December, when
they were thirteen and fourth, one of the five or
six best net ratings in NBA history. Now they didn't
have bridmin Fleet, then they did have Steven Adams, so
they aren't quite the same team x's and o's, but nonetheless,
(16:20):
I think it's crystal clear now, at least with the
regular season that's not happening. The issues are real, and
so all you can do is hope you get to
the playoffs turn over a new leaf, and perhaps that
chance to start fresh without being burdened by everything that's
happened over the last four or five months could be
(16:42):
refreshing for a lot of these guys, especially the younger
guys who haven't been through the grind before, and really
so many at the young core here in Houston. The
last two seasons e May's first year when they went
forty one and forty one coming off of twenty two
and sixty, and then last year jumping from forty one
to fifty two, it's been nothing but positive vibes. This
year has been different. This year at times it's spelt
(17:03):
like the year from Hell, and I think it's weight
on young guys that haven't been through it before. Perhaps
they get a second win, and so if Shinoon is
one of those guys, I guess the same could apply
to any of the other young core as well. But
if he builds on this moment I'm down the strutch
of the regular season, and continues it into the playoffs,
maybe wins you a series against a team like the Lakers,
(17:24):
the Nuggets, the Timberwolves, whoever it is that you draw
between three and six. Does that potentially change your view,
Pallow in a way that just extending it over the
regular season might not.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
It's never like it's never going to turn it into
a successful season, and we talked about what a successful
season was in previous spots. But if he sustains this
level until the end of the season and into the playoffs,
I mean, I think it has to make you a
lot more optimistic about Nake year than it would otherwise.
(17:58):
It will buy the from I think it will buy
the front office a lot of leeway with the fan,
but in a lot of you know, optimism going into
next season, which which is needed because then there's a
lot of people that are really mad, and typically defense
being really angry at the team's not a good thing.
And as far as you know, being a playoff riser
or not, I do believe you know, even though all
print engon stats from last season don't look great in
(18:21):
the playoffs. That was a specific type of series that
I don't think you can extrapulate his numbers to normal
efficiency numbers. I personally thought that he was a playoff
riser and that he played in the big moments. He
wasn't afraid. It's just that you're facing Verymond Green, who
was a great defender, and they were walling up and
it was hard partly and Gaillan Green was thinking it
(18:43):
up so bad, and you know a lot of the
times Chengo being forced to do things by himself. The
Verison community was obviously a playoff rise that just looked
at his stats. But going into the Kues shingun Ands
the regular season like this, I would be confident going
into the playoff said he you know, was going to
perform well and I and if he does compile a
(19:05):
good playoff run on top of going to the rest of
the radio season like this, which is not a long time,
it's where it game left. Whatever it may be, it
will help you in the sense that it will buy you.
We will with defend base to just running it back
with Fred and Steven Adams, which is pretty good. It
might buy, it might buy you chemistry within the team
(19:27):
and and you know openness to running it back and
being fully invested next season and hoping that with Fred,
with Steven Adams that you just that away from you know,
potentially being a much better team, which is you know,
pretty fair argument to make. Those guys are are really
good to high impact players as far as you know
what you said about, you know, for a lot of
(19:48):
the for some of the young guys to be the
first time they go through the sort of swamp after
last season was such a you know, World Beaters type
of season. From from a morale standpoint, I mean, it
might have some impact. I'm not sure it's needle moving,
although although vibes are really important and young players can
(20:09):
very easily spiral, and you know, careers are altered based
on you know, the the atmosphere that they that they
are dropped into. Besides Jabari and shan Un going into
the playoffs, you know, reads really interesting from for both
the good and the bad, like is he going to
be a playoff pricer as far as making shots goes?
(20:30):
Is he going to be completely exploited on defense in
the playoffs because because of the size and then you know,
obviously the playoffs, e raised a lot of radio season struggles,
especially for the reason waiting to contract here, you know,
there's not a lot to be saved because he's been
substantially worse than the playoff we all thought he was
going to be. But if he goes into the playoffs
and hence the playoff series, which he can which he
(20:52):
can have, especially if you drop the Lakers like they
have Lebron and Luke, you're going to put a man
on one of them, and he's likely that say, the
best guy to put on the next one maybe Joshua Cogey,
but he's seems to have fallen all out of favor
as well. So, yes, there's still a lot that can
be saved from this season. Yes, it starts with Chingling
because he's the biggest, you know, needle mover. I guess
(21:14):
as far as when he plays poorly versus when he
plays well. But especially from a how we're going to
stop next season standpoint, Chenguan playing well makes you feel
that much better about the future of the franchise because
Shane Yulan, for the for a lot of his faults,
is the one guy where they severely overperformed his draft
(21:34):
slot right they whip on Jill and Green. I think
that that's really fair to say, Jimarti Smith Union was
from not a great draft, but for the number three
overall pick together, someone who's probably going to be an
elite role player is good but not great. They're not
necessarily getting that much star power. And until nomen thumcon
even though his impact is great, until he ascends into
a creating star. You know, he's a really good player
(21:59):
and he's good battle, but is not necessarily you know,
the number one guys. And then that's what a lot
of people would create a lot of anxiety with fans.
It's okay, after all of this, do we have someone
who can who we can call or Kid Cunningham or
or Anthony Edwards or shake which as Alexander, that's the
(22:19):
biggest issue. And Shangun being who we thought Lingoln could
be coming out of last season is, as I said,
the biggest swing you can possibly have to close up
the season. So yes, it does completely change the out
look of next season if Shangun is able to do that,
and I'm rooting as I think we all are, for
him to do that because that would save us a
(22:39):
lot of trouble and a lot of tough decisions going
to the off season because you can reasonably say talk
up next last season to the style of play, and
chalk up the part of the season when he wasn't great,
which was an extended period of time to injury, because
the timeline does line up. We had those you know,
he was training towards being better, had those two games
of a break, and now seems to be playing better.
(23:02):
The fact that he made five threes out of seven
shots in the last game is intriguing, and I'm wondering
even how you feel about how that, how that factors
into his health, Like, is he just more comfortable shooting
jump shots when when he's fully healthy, because we saw
early on in the season he was shooting it a lot,
(23:25):
and then for a very long period of time he
shoot one or zero again, and now all of a
sudden he's shot seven and made five of them, including
the first five. Not sure how that factors in sometimes
that that's what's frustrating the thing Union because it's tough
to understand what dictates his shot diet.
Speaker 2 (23:47):
Yeah, I'm not going too far down that road until
we see it more consistently, Like I've been burned before,
so as far as the hypothetical, I'm much more willing
to have that conversation if he starts off next season
hot from three, if we see it more in training
camp in the preseason. I think it's pretty far fetched
to think it's just suddenly going to click less than
a month before the playoffs. I would love to be wrong,
(24:09):
but that's the kind of thing. I'll take it into
positive development when it happens. And I think Sunday at
New Orleans against a bad Pelicans team was just something
of a heater. A lot of them came from the
same spot on the court, right at the top of
the key. I think he got in rhythm. The Pelicans
didn't take him out of rhythm. I would be surprised.
I don't think it's a great discussion topic for this
(24:30):
week's spot. I would love to revisit that in a
week if he proves us wrong, but that's just my sense.
I'm much more focused on the advancements he's made in
other aspects of his game, most notably defensive intensity and
finishing near the rim, which it feels like both of
those things have picked up this month. As far as
(24:53):
other areas of the team beyond Strengoons. Since we last recorded,
there have been a few changes. Looking at the bench,
Aaron Holliday's playing in place at Joshua Kogi, Jay Shun
Tate is playing in place at Jeordian and Finney Smith.
But then the big change Tarry Easton now coming off
the bench, Reed Shepherd starting. That was a change that
(25:14):
it felt like all of Rocket's Twitter had wanted for
a few weeks. But then, most notably Tarry Easton, at
least over the past week his last three games, is
actually playing well again, So you're getting a better version
of Tory Eesen now, it should be noted, over that
same stretch, Reed Shepherd has not played that well, and
we've seen quick hooks because defensively, when Reed and Shagoon
(25:36):
are together, that's problematic. So even though Reed is starting,
he gets a relatively quick hook, and lately in the
closing lineups it's been Tori in place of Reed. So
in terms of whether the current starting five is going
to be the starting five in the playoffs, that's still
very much an open ended question. Emodoka said. When they
made the change before the Miami game or before the
(25:58):
Atlanta game, excuse me that it would be a trial
run for probably eight games or so, and then the
final five games before the playoffs that make a determination
and try and get in some sort of rhythm with
the starting lineup and rotations. And that five game mark
is going to come this weekend, one week before the
playoffs start on the eighteenth, well, no, one week put
(26:19):
the end of the regular season. Then there's a week
gap between the regular season and the playoffs, so I
think it's interesting. It's not that Reed deserves to be demoted, however,
when you look at the firepower between the Entrench score
of Kevin Durant, all Perin Shangoon, Amn Thompson, and Japari
Smith Junior. By the way, Rockets are a ridiculous twenty
(26:40):
two and a half points better a net offensive rating
this month when a men plays, his growth has sort
of flown under the radar, but he's been really good
in recent weeks, so we should give him his flowers
as well. Perhaps he's a playoff riser just like Shingoon
theoretically could be. But looking beyond the big names further
down the rot, I'm curious your thoughts, Pollo. When the
(27:02):
playoffs open for the Rockets on the eighteenth or nineteenth.
Then I'm gonna confidently say that because there's four games
of separation plus the tiebreaker between the Rockets and the Suns,
and there's only eight games left to play, seven after tonight.
So no, I do not see. You know, it's not
mathematically impossible, but the Suns would have to win out
and the Rockets go three and five or worse. That's
(27:23):
extremely unlikely, not impossible, But that's just like Shagoon and
the three point shot. That's one of those we'll cross
that bridge when we come to it situations. I don't
think it's something you should plan on. So I think
the Rockets are going to finish somewhere between three and six,
probably four and six, because they're three back in the
lost column without the tiebreaker against the Lakers. So when
they open the playoffs in the eighteenth or nineteenth, I'm curious,
(27:43):
POWLO are your thoughts. Does hemy Udoka stick with Reed Shepherd,
does he go back to Tarry Eathen, and also does
he stick with Aaron Holliday and Jay Shan Tate in
place of josh Ua Koge and Dorian Finney Smith. What
are your thoughts on those choices.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
The lobgic I'm going to employ is a bit flawed,
but it's a small sample, and I'll preface it by saying, yes,
I know Tarisa had been struggling for a while before
I say what I'm about to say. But the truth is,
since the swap, both are playing worse than they were
playing before. I think that's fair. So it doesn't make
an informologic standpoint from a lineup standpoint, since before the change,
(28:21):
I had always said that it didn't make that much
sense for me to start, because we didn't think gun
defensively is rough, and because the second unit just has
terrible firepower if Free Shepherd's not in it there and
to balance it out them to play the minutes with
un capella and everything like that. And so to me,
(28:42):
if I had to bat on it, I'd say that
he reverses it. If it's stories I'm starting or not,
I'm not sure because it would be kind of promoting
Tario while he's playing awful, and it's not a good
president to set. Would they can say that perhaps you know,
starting a gogie again or starting Aaron Holly, they are
starting someone else, perhaps were too deep into the season,
and there's not enough games for them to test that
(29:03):
out before moving into the playoffs. But granted that they're
going to make a change or judge it as as
you know, kind of a package of games where restarted,
you know, these few games in a row, I would
say you can't look at it and argue for it
to continue, at least from from my perspective. So to me,
that question is very obviously reach to not start, and
(29:27):
it's not you know, it's because he's he's played you know, worse,
so when he when he when he has started, it
doesn't really make sense on paper. So I do think
that that saint is going to be made as far
as as far as Aaron Holliday and and Jay Shantate.
I know Jay shant it was just a plus twenty
(29:47):
seven in twelve minutes in their blowout when against the
fell Agains. But I don't think Tate is good of
a player as he was when we were terrible. I
think there's been a regression on defense decision make and
has always been rough offensively, doesn't seem to be as
crafty as he once was. I just don't think he's
a viable solution, even though he just you know, popped off.
(30:10):
From an impact perspective, I don't think he's gonna play.
Aaron Holliday is a different like Aaron Holliday I think
has a much better chance of playing. If those two
guys that you acted the Gogi and and not in
Phinie Smith still struggle, and especially if reachu Ard struggles
as well, I could see he may you know, giving
him minute in a playoff series in place of him,
(30:34):
especially because I do think that Aaron Holliday is significantly
better defender than the reach Up for this and a
significantly better space than the other two are. So going
into the playoffs, I would not expect to get you know,
regular rotation minutes. I would not be surprised if Ian
Holiday did. But I do expect him to go back
to a Goggin or in Phinie Smith at least a
(30:56):
little bit before, you know, just discarding that that in
the next few regular season games before before you know,
moving on from that, if you do, like if you
don't play or any finished within the playoffs, what does
that do to him, Not to him, but to his
value and to the management of him as an asset.
(31:17):
Not that that's the most priority. I mean, depending on
what your expectations for the playoffs, it might be if
you think it's lost anyway. But going to the off
season and he's a guy that you just didn't play
the last in the most important games of the season
when you clearly had space for him to play in
the rotation, you know, how does that work? And the
(31:38):
other in the other The other choice, I guess is
it's just shorten the roadsion even more and you play
the current guys even more minutes. I don't think EMAIL
would be scared to go into an eight minor rotation
and you know, just cut some of those guys off completely.
Speaker 2 (31:55):
I hope he doesn't do that, because I really do
think some of the ridiculously awful that we see late
in games, or because some guys are a little bit
short on juice. So I hope with this particular team
and its tendency for turnovers and big spots, that they're
mindful of minutes. Even in the playoffs. You know, try
not to go forty plus for any of the regulars,
because if they're already a little bit turnover prone, then
(32:18):
being gased can take you from being somewhat turnover prone
to just ridiculous plays like we saw, especially late in
overtime in Minnesota. I'm curious you mentioned being bearish on Tate.
I'm a little higher on him, especially if you pair
him with Aaron Holliday, who can shoot threes in space
to four. I think sometimes Tate can be a tough
(32:38):
fit if there's not enough shooting around him. I think
if you have Holiday to help the team from a
three point volume perspective, that might can make Tate a
little more playable. But if if it's not Tate, and
it's not eight man rotation, and we should mention obviously
Clint Capella at least to a small degree, it's going
to toak up some minutes as the backup center. Do
(32:59):
you think it's DFS or Josh Shakogi who would get
those tape minutes as the other backup forward beyond Tari Eason.
That's if Chari's coming off the bench.
Speaker 3 (33:08):
But you know what I mean, it's rough. I think
he may will. I mean I think he may will
try don't Anythingney Smith first, and if it doesn't work,
I think he'd be quit the pull the plugs and
get Jessica Gogge in.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
Then fair enough for the record, I think Josh or
I'll start with Dorian, I think his value is baked,
and I think at this point they're going to have
to take him into next season and hopefully he bounces
back with a few more months to let the ankle heal,
and if he doesn't, then you can use him during
the season as an expiring as neutral salary filler. I
(33:44):
think even in the off season on the books for
thirteen million dollars next season, he'd be something of a
negative asset. Maybe there's a mega tray that you have
no choice but to use him for, but realistically, I
think you carry him into the season. There's some upside
if he returns to four and if he doesn't, then
at next year's trade deadline, regardless of how he plays,
(34:05):
when that contract is expiring and more than half of
it is already paid off, at that point, he will be
worst case neutral that you can use to upgrade the
team somewhere else. So I just don't think anything that
happens down the stretch is going to change much when
it comes to his value this offseason, unless he just
goes off in the playoffs and all of a sudden,
you know, reverts back to who he was a year
(34:25):
ago with the Lakers, which you know it's not impossible,
but we are definitely running out of time. And then
what I'll say with Joshakoge. I know the numbers say
overall that that he's been a positive difference maker this year,
and I'm certainly not blaming any of the recent downturn
on Josh, but I would just urge people to keep
in mind that so many of the metrics that josh
(34:48):
has accumulated came from that thirteen and four start when
he was starting, and no, they were not thirteen and
four simply because of Josha Koge. There were a million
things that were different about this team in the first
six weeks of the season. So that's just meant to
provide some useful context. I don't think it's as simple
as saying, well, here are the advanced numbers that Joshua
(35:10):
Kogie has put up, and this is what you can
expect if you put him into the current version of
the Houston Rockets. Like it's not that he's done anything
catastrophically along, Like he's certainly an option, but I just
think he's getting a little bit squeezed because as of
late the Rockets, you know, they need to be closer
to parody on three point volume. The defense just isn't
good enough to grind out wins otherwise, and so I
(35:32):
think in terms of the guard options, Aaron Holliday provides something,
especially if you're starting Reed and so you're not going
super small playing two backup guards and Reed and Aaron then,
relative to Josh, the ability to put up more threes
that's appealing. And then the forward spots, Tate and DFS
just play with a lot more physicality. I know Josh
(35:52):
has the seven foot wingspan, but you do have more
physicality with Tate and DFS, a better ability to bang
down low, and I think that that's something that appeals
to em Udokas. So I'm actually thinking as of right
now that Holliday and Tate both would play if the
playoffs started today. However, the margins are close enough that
a Tate doesn't sustain his level of play. We'll see
(36:13):
what happens tonight against the Knicks. That was a matchup
where I thought he started off playing well, but then
he sprang to MCL that game right after the ulstar
break when Karl Anthony Towns rolled up on him. We'll
see how he plays under the bright lights and we'll
see how You know, I may has mentioned giving more
opportunities to Josh and DFS, and so I would say,
right now, I do think it would be Tate, but
(36:34):
it's the margin is close enough there that I think
it's subject to change. And then you know, read versus Tari.
I do think the one pushback I'll give you, Paolo.
I do think that over the last three games, Tari
has been better relative to before the change, Like these
last three games have been really positive for him. However,
I don't think that it's a situation where he has
(36:56):
to stay in that six man role to get that version.
I think he just needed something of a spark. He
needed to see something go right. They had a team
meeting in Memphis. It sounded like they bonded. You mentioned
the interview that he had with all Perinch Goon when
Alfie had his arm around him. There's lots of little
things that may have contributed, But I don't think it's
as simple as he can only function as a six men. No,
(37:19):
he was really good in that starting lineup when he
took the reins on Christmas. The first couple of weeks
and then it gradually fell off, and as his three
point numbers declined, other aspects of his game did as well.
I just don't think it is a I don't think
it's a requirement that to get this version of Tari
he has to come off the bench. And if it's
(37:41):
not a requirement, then yeah, I do think it makes
more sense to start him, just because from an x's
and o's perspective, it just makes more sense. But how
many high usage guys you have in that starting five
to have someone that can do the little things, that
can defend that is more versatile. I just think if
that's your closing lineup, if you're having to make these
quick subs at the eight nine minute mark of the
(38:03):
first and third quarters, at some point, assuming Tari doesn't
fall off again, or unless Reed starts going off for
twenty and ten again, I think it's just gonna be
a situation where if this is clearly the lineup that
he may is most comfortable with, why doesn't he just
start it? And the bottom line is the switch. I
know it will cause some heartache for a lot of
(38:23):
our fans, but the change was never about, you know,
coronating reach Shepherd and saying he's a star in the making,
he's a starter for the foreseeable future. It was about
trying to get Tarry Easton Wright, trying to get him
more comfortable, and now that he is more comfortable, I
do think, assuming it continues, my bet would be that
he eventually finds his way before the playoffs back in
(38:46):
that starting lineup. Anyway, last segment before we close out,
we've talked a lot about the playoffs because truth be told,
it's more fun to look ahead to what's going to
happen starting the eighteenth of April than it is these
final eight games because regardless of exactly what seed the
(39:07):
Rockets are, regardless of what record they have over the
final light games, I don't think it's going to dramatically
change how we feel about this season. The only way
that can dramatically change how we feel about what we've
seen this year is if they go on a run
in the playoffs, as we've talked about for a lot
of this episode. So I want to look ahead to
that series that's starting in mid April. Obviously, we'll talk
(39:30):
much more about it when we know who the opponent
is and we're still a couple of weeks away from that.
But at this early stage, POWLO, who do you think
is the most favorable draw between the Nuggets, the Timberwolves,
and the Lakers, Because as mentioned earlier, I think mathematically
you can't none of these teams can catch the Spurs,
who are pretty entrenched as a top two seed, and
(39:50):
I don't think it's realistic for any of them to
fall to the play and range and be caught by Phoenix.
So I think it's pretty clear that either in the three,
six or the four or five, we'll see what seed.
We'll see if the Rockets have home court advantage, but
it's going to be one of those three opponents in
all likelihood who you draw in the first round, and
I think I'm leaning Lakers. Jaden mccaniels has some knee
(40:13):
soreness that depending on what happens there, you could tilt
me in the direction of Minnesota. But the reason I
would prefer the Lakers over Minnesota I did not like
what we saw from Kad against Jaden mccaniels last week.
I think the Rockets need Katie to be able to
tap into the All Star All NBA version of himself
to have a chance, and I think Jaden might be
(40:34):
the most difficult one on one matchup for him among
all of those three teams. And what I keep going
back to with the Lakers, even with everything going wrong
for the Rockets and not having Shainggoon one of those
games at all, both of those losses to the Lakers
in Houston were still there for the taking entering the
final three or four minutes and it took Luca going
(40:54):
absolutely crazy for the Lakers to scrape by. So even
with the Rockets doing so much any things wrong, not
having Shinohun one game, Tari being broken, it was still
right there for the taking. You could sort of argue
the same with Minnesota, although the Timberwolves didn't have Anthony
Edwards for this game, so I would caution reading too
much into that. And then earlier in March, Denver was
(41:17):
the game. I know it was night to go back
to back on the road, but they just drilled the Rockets.
And I also think they're the most talented team overall.
Between Yokis, Jamal Murray, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, there's just
so much high end talent on that roster. For me,
I think it's Lakers at one, Minnesota at two, and
Denver at three. I would prefer home court advantage. So
(41:39):
if it's close, like if I could have home court
advantage against Minnesota and I would not have home court
advantage against the Lakers, that might tilt me a little
bit towards Minnesota. Pending what happens with Jade mccaniels and
his health, I'm assuming he'll play, but the question is
how effective he will be. But just generally speaking, I
would say that's my order. I think regardless with this
(42:00):
limited version of the Rockets what we've seen since the
All Star Break, there's no silver bullet, there's something that's
going to dramatically change their outlook. I just think they're
outmanned from a talent perspective against Denver, I would prefer
the Lakers, the Timberwolves, and probably the Lakers, because even
with everything going wrong, the Rockets were still right there
those two games that were played a couple of weeks ago,
and then on Christmas when things were going right for
(42:22):
the Rockets, obviously they drilled the Lakers in LA. So
that's sort of my outlook. How what's your perspective as
far as the optimal draw and how important is home
court advantage given that you know they're twenty five to
ten at home but twenty and nineteen on the road.
Speaker 3 (42:38):
I think home quarter event because it is critical to
stats speak for themselves. It's not necessary that I think
Houston has a massive home cord adventagy like they never
asked for exemple fees of the altitude or some other
teams have because of the ground. Although in the playoffs
still clear to centers typically a step up. But does
stats tell you they seem to be a lot better
(42:59):
at home at they are on That has to have
a reason as far as the opponent goes. I don't
feel too strongly either direction. I think all of these teams,
including the Nuggets, are about the same the same colover.
The Nuggets are just harder, hotter right now. But I
do think that that really good defense is what stifles
(43:20):
Rockets the most. Uh and I think like I think
lower resistance on the defensive end is what this team
can more easily exploit to get to a second round.
So I do I have the Timberwolves as the as
opponent I least like because we'd go better with Anthony
Edwards with with Jim McDaniels. As you said, I think
(43:43):
they are the the formatic because I think they can
this bulb the game down more for the Rockets offense,
and then I have very little face on our faith
on our defense to stop them, especially if Anthony Edwards
goes magnet ball as he usually does against us. Not
that Luca does it any less against the Rocket or
(44:03):
against well within the last few weeks to any team,
but the Wolves are around the most scared of Beyond that,
between Denver and the Lakers, you've got to say the
Lakers are the easier matter. I just I don't believe
that defense. I don't believe it's sustainable, and their offense
comes a lot from you know, their three main guys,
(44:24):
and I think the Rockets have. You know, if if
our wings locked in defensively, I do think we have
the defensive stoppers to throw wape them and the defensive
books to throw at them to at least slow them
down a little bit better they can then they can
slow us down. I do think these came are going
to be shootouts, so I would prefer the Lakers over
(44:46):
the Nuggets. But I would prefer the Nuggets over the
Wolves because I think just the Wolves have a recipe
for disaster, and I swear it's not it's not recentcy
bias from them having beat us without without and so yeah,
I'm pretty confident in that. But I don't think there's
that they I don't think that they are in different tiers.
(45:07):
I think they are within the same tier as far
as opponents, not as teams. Obviously they have within the
same tier est teams because of their record. I mean,
from the Rockers perspective, I don't favor any of them
too much over the other, but if I had to
order them, that's outgo.
Speaker 2 (45:22):
I do think with Minnesota there's something about all pera
in Shangoon against Rudy Gobert that seems to bring out
the best in Alpi. But I don't know. If Shangoon's
as hot as he's been lately, perhaps that's an advantage
for you, no matter what. It's just for all the
pessimism over that last Minnesota game, the look in Shangoon's
eye when he went to work against Rudy, that's the
(45:43):
one thing I do think. Having an incentivized Shangoon and
perhaps the playoffs will do that. No matter what, that's
a huge variable for the Rockets. So for all the
difficulties of that matchup and your points on ant or valid,
I mentioned Jade McDaniels on KD, but I do think
Shangoon against Rudy and bringing out the best in Shangoon
might be a little thing to tip the scales the
other way. I think to your point on home versus road,
(46:05):
I looked up I think the biggest reason for the
split two of your young guys, and it makes sense.
Young guys often shoot better at home than on the road.
Read Shepherd at home forty two percent on threes, on
the road thirty six percent, Jabari Smith Junior thirty eight
percent at home, thirty four percent on the road. So
Schabari and Reid both are shooting much better in Toyota
Center than away from Houston. So I think that that's
(46:28):
just a little thing, but it makes sense. Young players,
especially young role players, tend to play better at home,
and if you get the best version of Jabari and Reid,
that can go a long way towards giving you a
chance to win a playoff series against a good team.
Final topic, I want to get to before we close out,
and we'll be quick here, won't do a full blown segment.
But there is some positive news, undisputably positive news on
(46:50):
the Houston basketball scene, and that's the return of the
Houston Commets. It's been rumored for some time, but now
that the WNBA has a new CBA for this season
n d On, the league can get down to business
and the Connecticut Sun are relocating to Houston after this season.
Brockets hired Kevin Pelton to a front office role, I
think the first official hire for the Comets, and of
(47:13):
course Kevin longtime analytics grew for ESPN, but he's going
to be something of a liaison working with the Connecticut
front office this season as they go through the traft,
free agency, expansion, draft, any tree opportunities during the season,
and then we'll see what the Rockets choose to do
well the Comets. We should say all the Rockets and
Comets are both owned by the Fertida family. When the
(47:36):
team gets to Houston this offseason starts referring for twenty
twenty seven, which will be their first year to play
as the Houston Comets. This year they will play as
the Connecticut Sun, and so certainly it's fun to have
more basketball where a basketball friendly podcast. But I think
the bigger takeaway as far as the Rockets, and this
is not a Comets podcast, it's a Rockets podcast. It
(47:58):
shows you that Tilburn, Fort Patrick, Burtida they're serious about spending.
They are spending three hundred million dollars to bring the
Sun from Connecticut to Houston. That is a record price
for a WNBA franchise. They just spent seventy five million
dollars on a new practice facility, which is Christine and
the envy of the league. They spent at least ten
(48:19):
or twenty million dollars. I don't have the exact figure
in front of me to renovate Toyota Center and to
bring in the new seats which are almost complete, and
I think you'll see that in the playoffs with the
new black seats instead of the bread and other upgrades
they've made to the arena in the twenty twenties. So
when you combine those investments, I mean between landing and
WNBA franchise, upgrading Toyota Center, new practice facility on Houston's
(48:43):
West side, that's well over four hundred maybe even five
hundred million dollars in investments this decade. For certainly the Rockets,
but just the broader basketball scene in Houston. So the
Virginias are clearly willing to spend. And as I see it,
relative to the first few years that Tilman owned the Rockets,
and there were these concerns about is he going to
(49:04):
pay the luxury tax. That's another thing. He's paying the
luxury tax this year and a team that pretty clearly
doesn't have championship potential, He's pretty clearly paying the luxury
tax so that the Rockets can maintain guys like Dorian
Phinney Smith and Clint Capella as trade assets as matching
salary into the offseason and into next year. So there's
lots of little things, but they all point in one
(49:25):
direction that this ownership group gets it. They're willing to
spend and in terms of the big picture keeping this
team together, opportunities to improve the team moving forward, this
does not feel like a cheap ownership group. If it
ever did, it certainly doesn't feel like that to me now.
And even if you know the big stories, obviously, it's
just great to have a WNBA franchise again, comets four
(49:46):
time champions and hopefully they can you know, resume that legacy.
I think from a Rockets perspective, it has to be
at least something of a positive indicator that this ownership
group is in fact willing to do what it takes
to win at a high level.
Speaker 3 (49:58):
Right. Yeah, first off, you know, it's it's awesome that
Houston is getting a w NBA team again. It was
always a travesty that the team that won the first
three championships just stopped existing, just from a historical perspective,
for sure, first Warthos just three, well even more so
(50:19):
than the what I thought, well, the team that clearly
has you know, the history, the legends to you know,
to market itself. I do being picky about it, then
they really have to be you know, the what is
the Son I think are the I think the son
are the fifth worst team in the league and they
and they don't own their own first round pick. Not
(50:42):
gonna pretend to be draft uru for the w NBA.
But you know, as far as Tankathon tells me, there's
there's fifteen you know, picks in the first round. I'm
not here. How about the conversion rate on those? Is
the Sun has the twelfth and the fifteenth. Being the
fifth worst team in the league, We'll see like girls,
it's probably going to be a while before they're good.
(51:04):
But as far as you said about the implications for
the Rockets, I think, you know, I think it's very
very hard to shake for a lot of fans. The
fact that that they dotted attacks during the hardened years,
which felt like you know, prime concending years, where they
were just a little bit well obviously hamstring away, but
just a little bit of the swimmer stuff markets away
from from winning a championship. That's going to be hard
(51:27):
to shake. But if you're honest and if you're impartial,
over the last few years, the Rockets were always near
at worst average and always near the top of you know,
salary expenditure during the tanking years is not normal that
seusually win owners save money because they're not bringing in
(51:47):
money because the team's thanking. You know, they've bought second
round picks, they've taken salary dumps or second round picks
with you are the small things that you can't do
as an earners tip group to help the team out.
Teams bad. They've paid big bucks for head coaches. You know,
now they are paying the lotary tax or a team
that very clearly isn't worth it, and when I a
(52:09):
pretty much guarantee, leave the guaranteey if this was back
during the more years, we cut the legs from teams
that were better than this then and we're not doing
it now, So clearly there's been a learning curve then,
and there's there's always obviously the factor of having you know,
guys you know form an ownership group, having the guys
running the team that you trust in and they are
(52:31):
your administration and obviously matters as well. But I don't
think you can reasonably say Tilman is or still and
the ownership group has been cheap for the last few years,
since basically since Ruffleston took over, I don't think we
have anything to complain about. Quite the opposite. Yeah, I
think it bothes well, but it's not like I was
(52:52):
worried about the rockets or being cheap the last few years.
So it's not like I was one of those guys
where oh I need them to prove to me that
they're not keep by doing X, Y and Z. No way,
when you look at the details, I always thought that
that they weren't being keeped ever since Rafelstone took over.
I won't talk about before that because you know, obviously
(53:13):
Brandon Knights and the well we all know what haven't.
So yeah, I don't think. I don't think that that's ay,
and I've seen it sometimes in reference to potentially you know,
fiing em and why they won't do that. I don't
think it has to do with the money, I think
it and I don't think the sixth year do that
he got in the off season has to do with it.
(53:35):
As much as they believe he is the right guy
to be leading the team. And I think that once
they don't, or if they ever don't, I think they'll
fire him. I don't think they'll they'll they'll keep him
because of this contract because that's not just not what
they've filn to be over the last but five years now.
So yeah, I think I think that's mostly sour grapes
(53:58):
from from previous times, that being the case for Kaffa
dec Enow.
Speaker 2 (54:02):
Yeah, I think that's a fair assessment. And obviously we'll
talk about Emay more leading into the playoffs, his strengths
and weaknesses. When we learn the opponent, we'll talk about
how the matchup might go, what Emay is going to do,
what he might be resistant to and then, of course,
when the season eventually ends, we'll review what we learned
the season, the good and the bad. To this point,
there's certainly been more bad than we would like. And
(54:24):
it's not that I don't want to talk about he
may now, but we've already spent an hour going through
some of the recent changes to the team, and I
think future shows will be much more emay focused when
we talk about matchups in the playoffs, adjustments, and then
ultimately reviewing the season what they accomplished and ultimately did
not accomplish, So not ignoring the emy thing. You'll hear
more from us on that in April. Anyway, that'll do
(54:45):
it for today. Well, no, let me put a bow
on the Burtita discussion because I think beyond the points
that you laid out, I think one small thing to
keep in mind, whatever you think of the politics, I
think Tilman Purtita getting that job in Italy where he's
now the US ambassador. I think for the Rockets that's
(55:08):
a good thing because it gives even more power to Patrick,
his son, who lives and breathes basketball. So if your
fear was meddling from a guy who has a million
other things, going on besides basketball and might not understand
all the implications. Tilman's now got a full blown job,
and he's half a world away from the Rockets most
(55:28):
of the time, so he has no choice but to
trust Patrick, a guy who lives and breathes basketball. He's
the alternate governor. And with Tilman literally not here, alternate
governor means you are the governor, you are the owner.
So the fact that this is truly Patrick Purtita's franchise
and that basically for the most part, Tilman's gonna go
(55:49):
on what Patrick tells him, then that's ultimately for the
betterment of the team. Because I promise you Patrick really
really cares. He's got a competitive shrink. He is looking
at things through strictly a basketball a lens. That doesn't
mean we're always going to agree. It doesn't mean that
he's going to make every decision along the same lines.
Is what Rockets Twitter or Rockets Blue Sky would prefer.
(56:10):
But I think in terms of is it about basketball
or is it about business, the fact that it's now
even more Patrick Curtida in charge from an ownership perspective,
that should make you confident that it's about the basketball
and the recent investments reflect that. Yeah, I just wanted
to briefly touch on the Pertida angle because I saw
at least one post last week when the vibes were
at their lowest. I think amid those Chicago and Minnesota
(56:33):
losses comparing the Houston ownership situation to teams like the
Bulls and the Kings that don't spend much, and our
reaction was, what the hell are we doing? Like it's
fair to critique the roster and its development, or like
thereof it's fair to critique he Mayudoka, it's fair to critique.
For fell Stone, no one is beyond being a second guest.
(56:54):
But I think if there's one thing you can point to,
at least in this iteration this decade since the the
page was charged to Rafelsone and Patrick Burtida and this
version of the Rocket, if they have spent at a
high level, and that's something that you should have confidence
in moving forward. I think certainly the lead storyline is
that it's just great to have the comments back, but
I do think it speaks well to the fact that, yeah,
the Britia, they're serious about spending money. And even if
(57:18):
the comments to the lead story, what it means for
the Rockets. It's a secondary angle that I think is
positive for fans of this team. Anyway, with that, I
will finally bring this episode to a close. We hadn't
had a show in a couple of weeks, so went
a little bit longer than I would like, but longtime
listeners know that's what me and Polow do and if
you want more content from us until that next show,
the best place to get it is on social media.
(57:40):
Polo is at Palo Alps, NBA, I'm on there at
and Dubo's mentioned that the show is on x at
Launch Pod seven ninety. Hit up the link tree in
the bio. You can support friends, sponsors at the program
and one of those, of course, Clutch Bands. This is
the Rocket's Launch Pod presented by Clutch Fans. I do
the postgame YouTube shows with Dave Hartesty, so just go
to the clutch on YouTube page that's in the Launch
(58:02):
Pot seventy ninety link tree as well, and you can
hear me on a more frequent basis. Anyway, for today,
this is where we break for Powo Alves. I'm bend Bos.
As always, we appreciate each of you so much for
listening and please come act soon for more new episodes
of The Rockets Launch Pot, The Rockets