January 27, 2026 • 52 mins
Looking for insights into building your financial future? Listen to the Rockport Wealth Truth in Investing Show as Joe Kovach, Adam Stalnaker, and Jon Arnold share their perspectives on wealth management, financial planning, and today’s markets
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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(00:20):
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Speaker 2 (00:38):
The subjects discussed.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
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(01:00):
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(01:22):
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Speaker 2 (01:36):
Ron Firm from News Radio 570 WKBN. Time now for
the Rockport Wealth Truth in Investing program. Always a joy
to join us is Joe Kovach, Certified Financial Planner. Always
a pleasure to have you on with us, Joe. Appreciate
you being here. In addition to Adam... Adam is joining
us as well. Adam Stalnaker. He is also a certified
(01:57):
financial planner with the Rockport Welder. Boy, I tell you what,
I got two certified financial planners with some great input
that we have and information that we have to share
with all of you. So I encourage you to stay
tuned as we go along here. Hey, I remind you
guys in the beginning as you listen to our broadcast,
if you're looking for trusted financial guidance, contact Joe and
(02:19):
Adam at Rockport Wealth Advisors by calling their office here
at 330-965-9890. They're at 7227 Glenwood Avenue here in Boardman. Well,
we always like to start, guys, with a stock markets
update and kind of a review. And Joe, Adam, give
us your thoughts.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
Yeah. Adam, nothing really happened. No, it's pretty calm. Yeah,
it's pretty calm. No, nothing going on in the headlines.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Son of a gun, are you sure? Are you sure?
I thought yesterday I saw something in the headlines.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
There you go.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
There you go.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
No, so we'll give you a couple different perspectives on this, right?
So through last Friday, you had an S & P
that was up a little over 1.3%. This would be
through the 16th, okay?
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Uh, you know, Dow was up a couple of percent,
you know, two, two and a half or so, a
little bit more than that. NASDAQ up 1.1 Russell, which
is small cap stocks. The Russell 2000 was actually up
almost 8% through Friday of last week, which is, you know, that's,
that's kind of, kind of different. So small caps are
really outperformed this year. And of course, old friends, gold
(03:28):
and silver, uh, gold was up 6% for the year, uh,
Silver is up 25% for the year. So the story continues.
Now we get through Martin Luther King Day and whammo. Yesterday,
would you remember, we always record on Wednesdays. Tuesday was
(03:52):
a noticeable down day.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
The key word being noticeable. You think that was noticeable, Joe?
Speaker 3 (03:58):
It was noticeable. It caught a lot of people's attention,
that's for sure, right? So you had an S &
P that was down a little over 2% on the day.
You had an ad deck that was down close to 2.5%
on the day. And it was a combination of, and
we'll get into this in a little bit more, Adam
(04:19):
and I will, but it's a lot of headline news.
news hitting the hitting the tape over the you know
long weekend right and i think when sometimes when these
things happen over long weekends especially it gives individuals and
institutions a lot of times to kind of stew on
it you know and and create this kind of narrative
(04:43):
around these things that you know they a certain thing
is going to happen and and and we call it
headline risk that that's kind of the word that we
use on these things so you know so if you
kind of stretch this out a little bit for, you know,
we're only on the 20, 20 something of January right now,
21st as of, as of today.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Right.
Speaker 3 (05:01):
And we've got a long way to go this year
and we're going to have other events this year. They're
going to create days like we had, right. I mean,
a 2% down day in the S and P is,
I don't want, it's not common, but it probably happens.
I don't know what Adam, what do you think? Five,
six times a year. I mean, you get at least right.
They happen. And And how you react to them or,
(05:23):
I think more importantly, do not react to these things
is extraordinarily important. We did get emails and calls yesterday.
I knew where you were going with this, though. Yeah. Yeah.
Which was like, what are you guys doing? And the
answer is nothing. Okay. First of all, you don't want
(05:44):
to react on the day that something's happening. The second
thing is you want to look at, though, is what
really changed.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Right.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
And, right, you know, Ron, you see these things, but
did anything really change yesterday?
Speaker 2 (05:56):
Right, as you talk about that, and I would like
to hear your comments about that, but what, I mean,
what's your assessment, like when you see the market go
down that much, what triggered it? I mean, what event
or news story caused it to go down that significant
in that day? And if you could explain that to
me and then go further with what you were saying.
Speaker 3 (06:16):
Yeah, well, it appeared to be a combination of headlines, right?
I mean, the first one was this uh... a lot
around you read about greenland right yes and and uh...
in the care of so the care of fears kinda
came back out okay and you had this the the
the tariff around greenland and if it's not sold to
the u.s which i didn't know you could really buy
(06:36):
a country but apparently it's available.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
For purchase louisiana purchase that's not true yet to go
back to remember my history so.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Study black and black quickly middle school so anyway you
if if this depending on how this played out which
could take you know, a significant period of time, who knows,
but there, there could be additional, uh, tariff taxes on Greenland.
That was one, I think just kind of the overall
mood around that situation, which it's somewhat European countries, right?
Speaker 4 (07:04):
I mean, there's a big old basket of them that
we're going to get tariffed if this didn't happen.
Speaker 3 (07:09):
Absolutely. Right. So, so what kind of, kind of deeper
than you had, uh, you know, that's really to the
whole NATO thing, right. And all that kind of stuff
and who's friends and who's not. So then you had, um,
It's been brewing for a while. The Iran kind of,
are we loading up troops to do something to Iran
or in Iran? There's a lot of unrest in Iran. Well,
(07:31):
I think you see a lot of their citizens uprising.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
I think they've taken a lot. And if you look
at their inflations. We were whining about our inflation.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
About 9%, yeah. This is, what, 48 year-over-year? It's an
astronomical number. I mean, eggs are a lot, right? Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 4 (07:51):
Their currency is collapsing, rise of living costs. They just
don't have the levers to pull like we do.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
Right.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
They don't.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
As a nation, and it's affecting them.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
I don't know if this is the right way to
say it, but it's a good thing. I'm glad to
see them kind of finding back, because I feel like
they're in a press situation.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
Right. Right.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
Yeah, absolutely. So they're they're they're starting to fight their
way back. And then, you know, the third one is
so let me let me back up on this before
we go into the third thing. But I think this
is this is worth worth mentioning. So I made the
mistake of going on to Twitter now called now called
X right over the weekend. And just to get some
(08:34):
casual news, just to get some casual news. And and
I I was scared to death. I mean, World War
III was starting. Greenland was going to be taken over
by force. And my personal favorite in this whole thing
that was all over Twitter was there was going to
be an alien invasion. So these things are all kind
of just– Now what you're going to have is everybody
(08:55):
that's listening, they're going to start Googling this. They are.
And see if they can find these stories. So, Ron,
this is a long-winded answer to your question of what
kind of triggered this. And I think it was just
a conglomeration of events. a conglomeration of headlines, a market
that was really kind of stretched a little bit on,
(09:15):
you know, on valuation side, maybe, you know, we haven't
really had a day like this since, I don't even
know if we had a 2% down day in early November.
I don't know if we did. I mean, we only
fell 5% or something in early November. So I think
all these things kind of hit it once and it
creates fear, right? Which is what headlines are kind of
designed to do nowadays. And you don't, The worst thing
(09:37):
to do is react to these things because it is
purely a reaction if you do something. You don't know.
We don't know. Anybody doesn't know how these are really
going to work out. But I can tell you one thing.
The things we look at haven't changed. Inflation is still
coming down. Let's give that a checkmark. That's good. Growth,
GDP is still going up. Let's give that a checkmark.
(09:58):
That's good. Interest rates are doing what? Probably coming down.
Staying level or coming down. That's a checkmark. That's a
good thing. So the big picture didn't change, which tells
you it was emotion and fear that drove the sell-off yesterday.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
It was basically news-driven based on what you just said.
that brought it down. I mean, but you understand from
a standpoint when you bring up CNBC and you look
at across the top there and you see all that red,
that's why clients start calling saying, whoa, what's going on here?
But I thought you handled it well by saying you
(10:34):
don't want to react based on emotions. Did I hear
that correctly, Joe?
Speaker 3 (10:39):
You heard it absolutely correct. We didn't do anything yesterday.
In fact, if anything, we were looking to buy a
little bit. We never ended up ultimately doing that. Just
to add a few positions that might have been down.
But until we get hardcore fundamental evidence that the fundamentals
have changed or something fundamentally has changed, it's all going
(11:03):
to be driven on emotions and speculation. And speculation is
a horrible thing to base your investment strategy off of. Horrible. Right?
If you go by emotions and speculation, you're going to
probably decide wrong almost every time.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Right?
Speaker 3 (11:18):
Especially on the emotional front. And like I said, we
did get some calls yesterday. We got some emails. It's like,
what are you guys doing? Well, we didn't do anything.
We just You know, I hate to be such a
Debbie Downer on it and say it's like, oh, we
moved this, we did that. I mean, you could have
been a little bit more sensitive and say we're monitoring this.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
Sensitivity is not my strong point. It isn't. Sorry. It's true.
But so, you know, so we'll keep watching. We'll monitor. Now, today,
you know, as we speak, markets back up a little bit. Fine.
So maybe it's a one-day event. Who knows? You know,
we'll see how this unfolds. But until we get some
hardcore evidence that that the real fundamental picture has changed.
(12:01):
You know, we're just going to keep going with our process.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
As you like to say, we're taping this on Wednesday,
January 21st, as we speak about all of this. And
what Trump was speaking at, is it Davos? Did I
say that properly?
Speaker 3 (12:15):
Davos, yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
And who knows what effect that will have on the markets,
whether that's today or in the days ahead, whether that's
positive or negative. But you so often talk, both Joe
and Adam, about volatility. Volatility can be up. Volatility can
be down. But that is the stock market. I mean,
volatility or ups and downs, always has been and always
(12:39):
will be the stock markets. I looked at that yesterday
and said, OK, take a look at all that red.
But I thought, hey, could it stay there? Yeah. Could
it go halfway back up the next day or whatever?
That's just how the market always has functioned. Right.
Speaker 3 (12:56):
And volatility is measured by what we call the VIX.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
Right.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
We talked about this in shows past. So the VIX
is a a numerical calculation based on how options trade.
And the higher the VIX, and I'll get to that
in a minute, the number on it, the more volatile,
you know, you're in a period of high volatility. Well,
we broke through 19 yesterday on the VIX, which is
(13:20):
kind of, it's kind of an in-between number between like
any below 19, you want to view the VIX as,
so if you're kind of looking to track this at home,
if you could put it right into Yahoo Finance or
anything like that, the VIX, just like it sounds, broke
above 19 yesterday. Anything below 19 and lower, that's like
(13:40):
a buy sign for stocks. That's a good thing for stocks.
You're kind of like right now above 19. It's not
a sell zone. You're just kind of in the middle
of like where the market would typically chop around a lot.
And you get above, say, 28, 29 on the VIX.
Now that becomes more of a distress signal, right? Where
(14:01):
you've had a lot of heavy selling stocks volatility that
it's high. So right now we're just kind of in
the middle, you know, working our way through after a
down day. Not uncommon. These things don't resolve themselves in
a day or two. Sometimes it takes a week or two.
But keep an eye on the VIX. That's going to
give you an idea of how much volatility you're going
to see going back and forth. Again, Ron, could be
up or down. Um, you know, in this case, the
(14:23):
downside really triggered the VIX moving up. Uh, typically when
you get big updates in the market, the VIX actually
moves down because the, you know, it's a, it's a
VIX is really kind of more of a volatility indicator.
I think, you know, I personally look at it for
more down on the downside, not the upside, but, but
technically it kind of covers both. So if you're kind
of looking at these things saying, Hey, when are things
are going to settle down? Just watch the VIX. And
(14:46):
when I looked at it earlier today, it was like
18 and a half down a little bit. Um, and it,
You know, that's a good thing, right? We got it
back below 19. Maybe volatility starts to die down a
little bit. Everybody feels a little bit more comfortable. But, Ron,
I love the way you say it. Volatility is the
stock market, right? That is such a true comment.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
Always has been and always, always will be. I mean,
that's just how it is. Let me ask both of you,
Joe and Adam, are joining us. This is the Rockport
Wealth Truth in Investing program. I have Certified Financial Planner
Joe Kovach with me, and Adam Stahlnaker is with me
as well on the Rockport Truth in Investing program on
NewsRadio 570 WKBN. As we go along, and many things
(15:31):
to cover here today, Joe and Adam help clients build
personalized financial plans, call the office to learn more. They're
in Boardman at 7227 Glenwood Avenue. Their phone number is 330-965-9000.
9 8 9 0 3 3 0 9 6 5
9 8 9 0. I want to ask you about
some of the sectors that we talk about, you know,
(15:51):
the best performers as far as year to date sectors
and the worst performers year to date as far as
sectors are concerned, guys. What does that tell us anything?
It does. Right.
Speaker 3 (16:02):
So, again, prior to yesterday. Right. You know, so it
should be no surprise to you. anybody that yesterday's best
sectors in it is a one-day representation where what the
defensive stuff utilities consumer staples stuff you need right right
around that that our buddy Joe bag of donuts needs
um but year to date prior to that technology was
(16:24):
doing really well industrials were doing really well basic materials
were doing really well gold silver of course on the
commodity side we're doing really well um And I would– again,
if nothing changes fundamentally, I would expect that kind of
trend to continue, whereas the underperformers will probably continue to underperform,
(16:45):
which will be more like financials, real estate, in this
case communication services. Those are the laggards here today, right? So–
Is that– or are you talking more commercial real estate?
(17:06):
Are you saying what– Yeah, real estate investment trust. REITs. Yeah,
they're called REITs, which are generally not going to be housing.
Some of them could be housing-related, but this is going
to be more industrial, commercial-type real estate. And they're not
in a good place right.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Now or– because of what people working from home or
what's your thoughts?
Speaker 3 (17:28):
I think it's a combo.
Speaker 4 (17:30):
If you look at downtown Cleveland, there's like three buildings
in receivership right now.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
Is there really?
Speaker 4 (17:36):
I think you've got a combo of people that have
bought buildings thinking that they can rehab them. and make
some money. And then there's just, the money's not there
in it. Like, I mean, even you look at downtown Cleveland,
it's not even commercial anymore. They're taking all the commercial
buildings and making residential residential. When I worked downtown in
oh one, like there was one building of people that
(17:59):
lived downtown.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
It's like no one. And it was everybody that worked. Right.
Speaker 4 (18:02):
And then at five o'clock, everybody went home and there's
nobody there. And now, you know, Megan's out on the town,
seeing all these people walking around town.
Speaker 3 (18:11):
Sorry, Megan. Megan's in with us, so we're going to
harass her.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
Well, she's a party animal.
Speaker 3 (18:18):
She is. She is. I mean, as she should be
at 23, 24, 23, 24, 24.
Speaker 4 (18:22):
Younger than us.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
Speak for yourself, guys.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
That's right. That's right. It's what's in your heart, Ron, right?
It's not the age on your driver's license.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
But like when you guys talk about the worst sectors,
I just was surprised. I think you made an interesting
observation on that. I want to pick your brain a
little bit on financial services. Now, when I think of
financial services, I usually think of banks. Am I in
the right arena here?
Speaker 3 (18:49):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (18:50):
And why are they, you consider, to be one of
the worst performers?
Speaker 3 (18:56):
They're generally a defensive sector, financials are, right? So what's
your defensive sectors? Let's outline that for a second. That's
going to be consumer staples, which are things you need, utilities, healthcare,
and financials, generally speaking, right? And you've had, up until yesterday...
Pretty much a market that just kind of, it had
(19:17):
moved up early in the year and then just kind
of flattened out a little bit. But we were up
for the year. I mean, it was funny. I'll give
you another quick story real quick. So remember, we said
the S & P was up 1.38% for the year
through January 16th. And I had a client call and ask,
what's wrong with the market? And I said, well, if
you got 1% per month, that would be pretty darn good.
(19:42):
right last time i checked that's 12 a year right
and so the answer was there's none of wrong with
the market. It's just that, again, expectations can get out
of whack when you have these kind of bull markets
that have just kind of gone on. And really, we've
been in a bull market other than some minor pauses
since last March, right? You know, in early April, let's
(20:06):
call it. So Memories are short on a lot of
this stuff. But bottom line is, if somebody came to
me and said, hey, the market's going to be up 1%
per month, I'd be like, hey. Where do I sign up? Yeah, exactly.
That's pretty good, right? So some of it's perspective and expectations.
And I don't know. I mean, remember last year, we
got off to a blistering start in January by 10%.
(20:30):
April 9th, we were down 10% for the year after
being up nearly 10% or something like 8%. So it's been–
you could see a similar pattern this year. You could not.
I don't know. I know I'm smart enough to tell
you I don't know, but I can tell you that
the pieces are in place that don't bother us.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
Sure.
Speaker 3 (20:49):
And we'll go back to it. Growth going up, inflation
coming down. Go ahead, Ron.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
Yeah, just to go to another arena, when you talk
about best performers, and one of them is technology, I mean,
when you look at all of the conversation in our
community here about AI and data centers and that kind
of stuff, can I say that doesn't surprise me? Would
you be comfortable with me saying it doesn't surprise me
when you talk about technology? Because they're talking about this everywhere,
(21:18):
AI centers. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (21:19):
They are, yeah. And I think that what has happened
with technology, and Adam, tell me if you agree with this,
is it has now been defined to mean the Mag 7. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (21:30):
Right?
Speaker 3 (21:31):
And everybody at Google, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, you know, so
on and so forth. But technology is way wider than that, right?
And actually, if you look at the net income of
the Mag 7 stocks, it's actually been declining for some time.
Speaker 2 (21:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (21:47):
Okay, so... Maybe, maybe, and again, who knows, we'll see
how it plays over the next year, three years, five years,
but maybe that group of seven has seen their, their
best days, not that they're going away and maybe it's
going to be replaced by other companies. Right, quicker growers.
Speaker 4 (22:04):
Well, I think what you have is you're seeing it, right?
That MAG-7 is lagging, but you see those small caps hitting.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
Right, the IWM, right?
Speaker 4 (22:13):
So a lot of those small caps might be these
up-and-comer technologies, and maybe the MAG-7 will absorb them at
some point because that's what they like to do.
Speaker 3 (22:21):
Could be. Innovation may not be the best underneath those companies.
Speaker 4 (22:25):
They may need to purchase some of these smaller companies,
but I think these smaller companies are starting with interest
rates dropping. cash becomes a little bit more available to them.
And that's why small caps are starting to, I think,
rock it off.
Speaker 3 (22:39):
Right. And tech is very broad, right? Tech could be
defined as the Mag 7. Tech could be robotics, cybersecurity.
I'm just trying to give different areas. If we say tech,
don't go jumping automatically to say Oh, Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, right?
(23:00):
It's just not those. It's just not those.
Speaker 4 (23:01):
It's way wider than that, Ron. Yeah, because I think,
I mean, you made the point. The Mag 7 is lagging.
So if you look at technology being up overall, it's
others that are posting that up instead of the normal
names that everybody sees.
Speaker 2 (23:16):
Right, right. I heard Adam know, Joe, talking about small
caps and what's going on there. So do you think
investors should move into small caps?
Speaker 3 (23:25):
Boy, no advice, please. It's called Jason. I will say
that in the environment, small caps should do pretty well, right? Again,
when you've got the environment of.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
Well, let me put it this way. It's part of diversity.
It would be part of diversity. I mean, maybe that's
how I should word the question. It might be part
of a diversified portfolio.
Speaker 3 (23:51):
Yeah, don't plow all your eggs.
Speaker 4 (23:52):
No, I think there's nothing wrong with having a little
bit in there all the time, just as a diversified portfolio.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
Right. Even with yesterday, and I'll reemphasize that I said
a couple times already today, even with yesterday's event, the
big picture has not changed, at least not yet. Right.
Are we still expecting inflation to come down?
Speaker 1 (24:12):
Yes.
Speaker 3 (24:13):
Are we still expecting growth to go up?
Speaker 2 (24:15):
Yes.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
Are we still expecting interest rates to go down or
stay flat? Yes. Is the Fed still embarking on buying
back bonds and creating what we call QE5, like quantitative
easing five? They're not naming it that yet, but yes,
that's happening. So those are favorable pieces for stocks. And
(24:36):
if the favorable pieces are in play, I got four
check marks out of four on that. By the way,
nothing has to happen. Just because those are in play
doesn't mean that An outside event can't deflect. It doesn't
mean that emotions can't take over and fear can't take
over for short periods of time. These are common events.
(24:58):
All we can do is give you the broader picture
and say, hey, we'd rather see these four in play
than to see inflation going up, growth slowing down, and
interest rates going up.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
I think what you're.
Speaker 4 (25:12):
Saying is more of a foundation to go up than
go down at this point.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
But we always talk about diversity and volatility. And when
I talk about that, incidentally, Adam and Joe, you had
mentioned gold and silver. Silver has been interesting to watch lately.
And any quick thoughts about silver?
Speaker 3 (25:35):
Yeah, it's interesting. It's gone parabolic on the chart. Yeah.
Meaning straight up.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
Let me look that word up. How do you spell parabolic?
Speaker 3 (25:45):
That's the word of the day.
Speaker 4 (25:46):
Not only get financial advice, you get your vocabulary.
Speaker 3 (25:51):
Parabolic means it's kind of going along at a normal pace,
and then it goes straight up, right? I mean, if
you look at a chart from October of 2014, I
can't remember when in 14, but and then to October
of 25, it was basically you got your money back.
Speaker 2 (26:05):
Yeah, right.
Speaker 3 (26:06):
Long periods of nothing. Right. Precious metals. Yeah. And then
it went all. Yeah. Parabolic. Is that what she's in? Parabolic. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (26:14):
You're impressed by that, too, aren't you? I don't want
to use those big words.
Speaker 3 (26:17):
I'm going to use it. No less than 20 more times.
All right, you guys can use it.
Speaker 2 (26:21):
Go ahead. Wait till I go home tonight, and I'm
going to say something about parabolic. I'll work it into
something with my wife, and she'll be impressed. Say, if
you're looking for trusted financial guidance, contact Joe and Adam
at Rockport Wealth Advisors by calling the office. They're located
at 7227 Glenwood Avenue here in Boardman. And the number
(26:42):
for the office is 330-965-9890, 330-965-9890. So if you're looking
for more insight like these, reach out to the team
at Rockport Wealth Advisors, 330-965-9890, 330-965-9890.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
This is the.
Speaker 2 (26:49):
Rockport Wealth Truth in Investing program here on NewsRadio 570 WKBN.
And we'll be back. I'm NewsRadio 570, WKVN, and Ron Verb.
(27:12):
This is the Rockport Wealth Truth and Investing Program, where
we bring in our fiduciaries and certified financial planners. You
heard me right, fiduciaries and certified financial planners. Joe Kovach
is with us. Adam Stalnaker is with us as well,
both certified financial planners. with the Rockport Wealth Advisors and
the Truth Investing Program. By the way, you can find
(27:34):
them at 7227 Glenwood Avenue in Boardman, 7227 Glenwood Avenue
in Boardman. And the phone number for the Boardman office
is 330-965-9890, 330-965-9890. One more time, slowly for you, 330-965-9890.
(27:54):
And so Joe and Adam are all about helping clients
make informed financial decisions. Learn more by giving them a
call today, 330-965-9890. All right, so I want to talk
to you guys in this segment about cash flow during retirement.
It's something that a lot of people worry about. You
seem to have like two ends of things that you think.
(28:16):
Some people think they can never save enough for retirement.
And perhaps they save way too much, and some people
don't save nearly enough. But I would say you would
have to have a good analysis to say, here's what
you got, and here's pretty much what can help supplement
your Social Security. Talk to me a little bit about
(28:36):
what you look for and the advice you.
Speaker 3 (28:38):
Give, guys. One question I think that we get quite
often is, you know, I've saved all this money. How
do I get it out, right? Oh, yeah. And there's
so many different ways to skin the cat. And one
way for one person may not be the right way
for another person, right? So there's different methods behind this
(29:02):
that we'll kind of cover today. And I think it just, again,
depends on your plan.
Speaker 2 (29:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (29:10):
And in your situation, kind of give you some standards,
some some examples of clients that we've worked with. But ultimately,
all these things usually come down to, you know, the
person's personal situation and, you know, what what they're trying
to accomplish.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (29:25):
So it's so we get into this. Let's take a
look at. So the basics behind this are, you know,
you're working years. What are you doing? You're accumulating. Right.
Speaker 2 (29:37):
Sure.
Speaker 3 (29:37):
And then your retirement years, you're distributing. Well, that's super simple.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
Right, right.
Speaker 3 (29:43):
That's the basics, right? That's where you start the conversation, right? Because,
you know, if everything works out like the way it's
supposed to, that's kind of the general theory. But then
it's like, okay, so now how do I get this out? Well,
I think one of the more common theories, and Adam,
you can get into this quite a bit is what
we call the bucket strategy, the bucket theory, right? So
(30:03):
what does that entail for somebody if they wanted to
utilize that strategy for their money?
Speaker 2 (30:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (30:07):
So you talk to people and everybody wants max returns,
max returns all the time. And then I go, okay,
what is this money earmarked for? Well, we're going to
buy a house.
Speaker 3 (30:17):
Okay. What's your timeframe?
Speaker 4 (30:19):
Probably within the next two years. Well, okay, we're not
maximizing returns because we go back to, you know, what
we talked about in the first segment about volatility. You know,
if there's volatility in the marketplace and you need that money, okay,
let's mark it down. Ron, when's the best time to sell?
Speaker 2 (30:34):
Not low. Yeah, usually. I always thought it was. Now,
help me out here. It's like a formula. I got
it on a chalkboard. You sell high and buy low.
Speaker 3 (30:44):
Yeah, exactly. Number one principle right there.
Speaker 4 (30:49):
If anything in here, that's when we want to get
money out, that's when we want to do it. But
I think what people don't realize then is you want
to take less risk when you've got a short-term one
to three years. Because if that volatility does take place
and you get hit with something and you've got to
sell into a down market, that's not a great thing.
Speaker 2 (31:11):
Right?
Speaker 3 (31:12):
Is my money going to be there for that one
to three years that I need at that period of time? Can,
can I maybe make a little depend on it? Right. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 4 (31:19):
So that's where the money markets, short-term bond funds come
into play. I mean, even some CDs in the past,
they're a little bit less in favor now and some
T bills and things like that, where you can kind
of predict a little bit more, uh, on your timeframes. Um,
now if you go to the midterm three to 10 years,
and this can get you closer to retirement, right? So
(31:40):
if you're, you're, You might want to relook at what
your volatility is or what your amount of risk that
you have in that portfolio. And you might want to
look at middle, more middle range, you know, growth or risk,
depending on what your time frame is.
Speaker 3 (31:56):
So more like a moderate or balanced, something like that? No, absolutely. Absolutely.
Speaker 4 (32:00):
And that way you can shift because 3 to 10, right,
you're going to then shift into the 1 to 3 eventually.
And you might want to shift down, you know, a
little bit more, a little less on the risk scale.
And then you've got your long-term, which is your 10 plus,
which that's your growth assets. That's your, Hey, I'm going to,
you know, if I'm in a 401k, I'm setting it
(32:22):
and forgetting it. Right. I'm taking the risk. Uh, there's
not a whole lot of active strategy in it. Or
if you come to people like us, you say, Hey,
I want to be in the growth. You know, I
want you guys looking in those spots where the opportunities
are and I'm willing to take on some risk, some volatility, uh,
because I've got time. And the people that already emailed
(32:42):
us this week, maybe they aren't growth investors.
Speaker 3 (32:47):
Maybe by default. Yeah. They got to rethink it. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 4 (32:51):
But there's nothing wrong with volatility in that 10 plus.
And that's what people, as they're looking at their money
and they're looking at their timeframes, need to understand. And
I think as a whole, a good amount of people do.
I think as they look at their timeframes, they're like,
you know what, I can take some more risk. I
can take some ups and downs because maybe they lived through,
(33:13):
you know, 08.
Speaker 3 (33:14):
Sure. They've been doing it for a while. Absolutely, yeah.
Speaker 4 (33:17):
11, you know, all those different years that have had
large amounts of volatility, they've gotten through it and come
out on the other side and have been better.
Speaker 3 (33:26):
Well, and I think this all ties back a little
bit to what we talked about in segment one, right,
which is it kind of takes some of the emotion
out out of these decisions, right? You know, it's, oh gosh,
things are down. I got to sell. Well, if you
got your next one to three years covered in something
that's not getting hit from crazy headlines, just take a
(33:48):
deep breath. You step back, you know, you got that.
Speaker 4 (33:50):
It doesn't feel good, but no, but ultimately when you
do the math problem and you look at it over time, it's,
it's the right thing.
Speaker 3 (33:56):
For you to do. Yeah, no question. So, so when
you look at this kind of thing and you look
at a bucket strategy, what, Adam, what kind of mistakes
do you see typically for people that are trying to
do these strategies?
Speaker 4 (34:08):
So we've got a lot of people that come to
us and maybe some people that have first time ever
had financial planning.
Speaker 3 (34:14):
So looking at all of everything in one spot and
I'm like, okay, you know, you're doing this, you're doing that.
How much cash do you have on hand? 300,000. Whoa.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
Right. I think, I think ultimately, yeah, but like.
Speaker 4 (34:30):
You know you're losing purchasing power of those dollars, right?
Because inflation is going up and the interest that you're
getting in your checking account is 0.1. So you're literally
losing money in purchasing power by keeping it in there.
Speaker 2 (34:45):
Right.
Speaker 3 (34:45):
And a quick word on inflation is if you have
an inflation rate of, let's just call it 2.5% where
it looks like it's probably trending to, that's not deflation. No.
Prices are going down. They're not going down. They're just
going up slower. So they were going up at 9.5%
rate back in 22. Now it's only 2.5%. So you
(35:06):
still have to keep pace with prices going up.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
Right.
Speaker 3 (35:09):
It's not like they're deflating. No. Right. We haven't had
much deflation. I can't remember the last time. It was
probably 08. I don't know what you consider. Do you
consider gas?
Speaker 4 (35:19):
I'm going off on a tangent here a little bit.
But if gas prices come down, it's not really deflation, right?
Speaker 3 (35:24):
It's just. they're deflating, but it's a contributor, but everything
else is not deflating. So it's a component. That's how
I would view that. What about taxes? We've got to
pay attention to taxes? Not at all, right? No, never. Ron,
you don't pay taxes, do you?
Speaker 2 (35:43):
Oh, yeah. One day I would like to see that happen.
But I want to ask you, before you go into taxes,
when you guys talk about down markets and selling, just
as a side note, The time I think that it
burns a lot of people is when you've got to
take your required distributions. You know, you have that time frame. Now,
I'm going beyond when you're talking about, you know, getting
(36:04):
ready for retirement. I'm talking if you're retired and you
fall into that required minimum distributions and you have that
one year to do it. And sometimes you look at
your time frame or whatever and say, Sometimes you got
to sell when the market's down because of those required
minimum distributions. That's what's depressing.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Yeah, I think people ask us all the time, well,
should I just keep it into the end and grow?
And it's like, well, are you going to spend it?
That's number one.
Speaker 4 (36:37):
If you're not going to spend it, what we do
with a lot of people is we take the taxes out,
transfer it over to another joint investment account and it's,
it's invested the next day. So you don't really lose
that market capability, right?
Speaker 3 (36:51):
Statistically over long periods of time, doesn't apply every year. You're,
you're best off making what contributions at the beginning of
the year and distributions at the end of the year, right?
Because you're putting the contribution in and catching the extra
year of growth and you're getting the distribution out after
you caught that growth. It doesn't hold true every single year,
but generally speaking, that's, that's kind of the best mindset
(37:14):
to have, right?
Speaker 4 (37:15):
And if you just need to take it out and
you don't need to spend it, right? If we're talking
about somebody that says, okay, I need my RMD, I
need to pay my mortgage, I need to make my
car payment, let's look at those in timeframes and make
sure that you got the money in your account to
get that done and not time it up.
Speaker 3 (37:32):
And then sit with a planner, sit with your CPA,
whoever it is, to tax plan this thing out. I mean,
that's important. You've got to know... what you're going to
have to owe on these things at your end. Do
you want to do withholdings and pay as you go?
Do you have to pay quarterlies? These all come into play.
You've got to have some kind of tax planning in
your life. Medicare, right? If you're on Medicare, maybe you
(37:55):
want to take a certain amount of income from one
source like IRAs and take the rest from another source
that doesn't have as much tax to keep you from
getting a bump up in Medicare premium, right? So you've
got to be able to plan these things out a
little bit or at least make an attempt at knowing
what you might owe your rent.
Speaker 4 (38:11):
Well, I think another one that not a lot of
people think of is when they retire early, right? When
they retire early, sometimes your medical premiums are based on
your income. So if you're tapping into IRAs to pay
for that, you know, you could be making your medical
premiums before Medicare go through the roof. And we've had
(38:33):
some of those conversations where as we're planning, and having conversations,
they say, oh.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
No, no big deal.
Speaker 4 (38:39):
And then we talk to the CPA and they're like, well,
they're under Obamacare and they need to keep their income
under a certain level. Well, if you have a non-qualified
joint account that you've got sitting over there, it's more
capital gain than it is ordinary income, you can kind
of balance out.
Speaker 3 (38:56):
Those taxes in that aspect.
Speaker 4 (38:58):
And you can kind of plan through to make sure
you're taken from the right bucket and saving yourself some
extra premium where you could get hit if you take
it out of the wrong bucket.
Speaker 3 (39:09):
And so a lot of this run, so I don't
know if you've ever heard this term before, but there's
a thing called sequences return risk, which is what? That
means you step out the door for retirement, the market
gets throttled down 20% in the first year you're retired
and your plan never recovers, right? That's what we're trying.
So a lot of the bucket theory, what it's trying
to do is negate or reduce the chances of a
(39:34):
sequence of return risk event happening. So Adam, maybe give
five minutes on just sequence return risk and what it is.
Speaker 4 (39:45):
Yeah, so the first year that you come out, right,
and you're taking money out of your account, let's say
you're taking 5%, but the market's down 20%.
Speaker 2 (39:53):
Ouch, yeah.
Speaker 4 (39:55):
It's going to take a long time to recover because
that 5% is taking it at a downside of 20%.
And what is the return needed to get back that 20?
Speaker 3 (40:04):
It's like 33? Yeah. Something like that?
Speaker 2 (40:06):
That's a lot. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (40:07):
More than right. Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 4 (40:08):
But then if you're taking an extra 5% out, now
you're talking probably close to 40% to get that back.
When in all reality, if you plan it out properly,
and sometimes we'll do this with people too, is we'll
set a year's worth of income aside. Um, so it's
not subject to any volatility. Now, is it going to
get major gains?
Speaker 2 (40:27):
No.
Speaker 3 (40:27):
You know, maybe it's sitting in a short-term bond fund
that can get you a couple percent. Bucket one.
Speaker 2 (40:32):
Yeah. Right.
Speaker 3 (40:32):
Bucket one. There you go.
Speaker 2 (40:34):
Right. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (40:35):
So you put that money that you need to live
off of in bucket one, you know, and you can
still keep the other, other pieces, uh, in long-term, uh,
There's nothing to say that you need to have every
single bucket, but what these buckets do is gives you flexibility.
And ultimately, balance and flexibility is what one needs to
have the best plan, in my mind.
Speaker 4 (40:56):
And if you've got the flexibility where you can take,
you know, sequence of returns and take a down year
and not affect your total outcome because you've got that
money set aside, you win.
Speaker 2 (41:10):
Right.
Speaker 3 (41:10):
What if I get a hole in my bucket? Then
you've got to refill it. I don't even. Get off
the welding guy. Is it a metal bucket?
Speaker 2 (41:20):
Some type of trick question Joe's trying to pull on you, Adam.
Speaker 3 (41:24):
Point being, you're replacing the short-term bucket with assets from
the other buckets as they grow. That's how you refill
your bucket. But it gives you that time and that
flexibility to be able to do that and not have
to run, like you said, sell into a down market
if you got your RMDs or whatever it might be.
The worst mistake is selling into a down market. It
(41:48):
is punishing emotionally and your portfolio. Sure.
Speaker 2 (41:52):
On those RMDs, when you're required to take them, let's
say when you're 73, you perhaps want to look over
that year. You have a year, I think. Do you not, Joe,
to take it and say, well, maybe I'll take it
now when the market's up as opposed to waiting and
waiting and waiting, and maybe it'll be down at the
end of the year, and then I have to do it.
I mean, you have some degree of flexibility over that
(42:15):
time as to when you have to take it as
far as the timeframe. Is that accurate? You do.
Speaker 3 (42:22):
Yeah, there's no question about it. And you also, it's
kind of like we always, we've made the comment on
the show in the past, like don't retire by the calendar.
don't take your distributions based on the calendar either. You know,
maybe it's one of those years where the market just
has a really good three to six months to start out. Well,
what's wrong in selling off a little bit and scraping
(42:42):
some off to cover your RMD later in the year, right?
That's active management, that's planning. These are things that you
need somebody to look at. If you're not going to
do it on your own, you need somebody to look
after that for you. So I think the other point
I want to make on this too is, You can
take this, any distributions you can take any way you want,
(43:02):
and it's flexible.
Speaker 2 (43:03):
Right, Adam?
Speaker 3 (43:04):
So I could take mine once a year, my RMD.
Or I could take it monthly. I could divide it
out and take it monthly if I want to do
it that way for better cash flow. Or I could
take it quarterly. There's no rules. As long as you
get it out, you're okay. Don't wait until the last
day of the year. That's tough. We'll not be happy.
Speaker 2 (43:22):
I got to tell you, though, guys, there's two, I think,
dreams we all have. Let me put it that way.
Number one is we all want to die at a
ripe old age of a heart attack when we're 100
years old, right? I mean, when we go, we don't
want to suffer from a stroke or cancer. I'm just
(43:43):
talking dreams. We all want to have that heart attack
when we're very old and die healthy but at a
ripe old age. Maybe that's, you know, dream number one
that we all have. And can I tell you what
dream number two is? I'm ready. Joe, are you ready
for this? Dream number two that most of us have,
all right, is that when we retire, we want to
take out whatever we feel we need to supplement our
(44:08):
social security and have a reasonable lifestyle, if you will.
And let's say that might be $ 2, 000 a month. I'm just,
as a ballpark, just, you know, everything's individual. You would
like to say, okay, I would like to be able
to take this money out and not affect my initial
investment money. You follow me? I want to take it
(44:28):
out of hopefully the gains, and then I'm not going
into what I invested. And if we have a good year,
then I'll make that money up so that I can
do that again the year after that, the year after that.
Isn't that traditionally a lot of people's retirement dream?
Speaker 3 (44:47):
Yeah, absolutely. And you can do that a couple, you know,
one strategy is the bucket strategy. You can also set
up your portfolio to crank out, what, a bunch of
income and dividends. Right. Either through bonds, dividend-paying stocks, and
try to live off the income. So in theory, then,
you're not touching principal if you're able to stay within
(45:07):
the guidelines of spending that your portfolio is generating an income.
And again, just a different strategy. Everything fits everybody a
little bit different. You know, we've got people doing both. Okay.
We've got bucket, bucket theory users. We've got people who
live off income. Um, until you kind of sit down
(45:29):
with a planner and get, get the feel for, they
get the feel for what you're trying to accomplish and
explain it to you. Um, you know, it, there's no
wrong answer. There just isn't. It's just whatever fits you best.
Speaker 2 (45:41):
Yeah. It reminds me. What John Arnold would say quite
often is, okay, let's say we got a strategy like that,
but let's say we're into a down market, just as
an example. Well, maybe on that particular year, you have
to adjust how much you would normally want to take
out or your lifestyle for that year because the market
is down. So there's many ways that you can make adjustments,
(46:02):
including on your withdrawals or your spending end. Would you
give me an aye-aye, Captain, on that? Aye.
Speaker 3 (46:09):
No, I think..
Speaker 4 (46:11):
What people need to do is they need to figure
out their plan by their spending, not by their return.
For example, somebody came in, and I'm just.
Speaker 3 (46:19):
Using these numbers.
Speaker 4 (46:20):
These are not numbers that are returns, but let's say
somebody came in and had a return of 10% last year.
They're like, I don't want to take principal, but I
want to take that 10%. Okay, you're not taking.
Speaker 3 (46:30):
Principal, but... What if the next year is down minus two? Yeah. Right.
Are you giving money back?
Speaker 2 (46:36):
Right.
Speaker 3 (46:36):
Right. So it's got, there's gotta.
Speaker 4 (46:39):
Be balance in there and what you take and understanding,
you know, what you spend and what you need to spend. Um,
I think that's a lot of the conversations we have
around with people because, you know, if you, if you
try to take every single gain out, there will be
a down year at some point. And if you take
all the gains out and then you still need to live, um,
(47:00):
there's no balance in there. So I think, I think
those are conversations that we have that are very common. And,
you know, I think Ron, you bring up good points
that people want to take out their gains, not affect
their principle.
Speaker 2 (47:13):
But not, but not all their gains, as you're saying, Adam.
Speaker 3 (47:16):
Correct. Correct. You're right. Because that, that can be dangerous ultimately. Right.
Speaker 2 (47:22):
But I mean, it's, it's like almost a formula you
guys were saying, because how much do you have coming
in with social security once they take out your, Medicare
costs once you take out of your checking your supplements
and the expenses you have as far as health care
is concerned. And then you look at what do you
have coming in and Social Security and what kind of
(47:44):
supplement do you need to have maybe maintain your lifestyle
or even not necessarily the same type lifestyle. I think
as we get older, you guys know this better than anyone,
I think we kind of spend less, not more, particularly
depending on the age you're at. Because you're not driving
to work all the time. Things just kind of change
(48:05):
as you grow old, expenditure-wise, with the exception of medical, maybe.
Speaker 3 (48:11):
Right, and we tell so many people that. It's like
you're going to spend so much more between 65 and
75 on travel and things you want to do.
Speaker 2 (48:19):
If that's what you want to do. If that's what
you want to do, right.
Speaker 3 (48:22):
Yeah, I mean, it could be anything. I mean, you're
going to feel like doing more when you're younger, when
you're 80, 85. you just maybe not have the energy
level to do it. But then to your point, Ron,
you might be spending more on healthcare, right? Or whatever
it might be. So maybe it ultimately washes out over
time to be about equal. But I think the point
(48:43):
you pull from that is that you set up your plans.
When we do plans for people, we ask them questions like,
what do you want to do in the next five
or 10 years. Let's budget it in. Let's put it
in and see how it affects the plan, right? You
got to account for it. And then we can also
build in long-term care expenses starting at a certain age, right?
(49:04):
To kind of see how it affects the end outcome
on these things. So I think it all goes back
to taking some time to plan. And a plan is
a plan, right? It's not necessarily the way it may
work out, but at least you're taking a shot at, hey,
this is what I think I want this to look like.
Speaker 4 (49:22):
Well, I think that's why we meet with people every year, right?
And ultimately, you know, just had a retiree recently, like,
he was like, well, when do I get money?
Speaker 3 (49:31):
When do I do that?
Speaker 4 (49:31):
I go, let me give you some money, spend it down. Basically,
I'm saying, Try on retirement. Walk around with it. See
how it feels. If you need more money, feel how
it is. Do what you want to do and then
come back to me. Let's talk about this. Let me
lay this on you guys. I got an email the
other day and I could really relate to this. Let
(49:53):
me just read this to you.
Speaker 2 (49:54):
I have been retired for three years now and I
love every second of my very simple, boring life. The
thing for me, I haven't been bored for one second.
I love short weekend trips. and I am better without
a large social network. So I do not feel compelled
to do the things 99.9% of professionals and families say
I do. I most likely will leave a large sum
(50:15):
of money to my only child and to charities I
am passionate about in my view that would be a
success and not a failure. In my view, money is
a tool to live this way while I'm alive. I'm
not frugal at this point, But I just don't desire
(50:36):
most things money can buy. A long walk, which I
take daily, is something I would pay a lot for,
but it just happens to be free. And I think
that describes a lot of people in their retirements, in
my opinion.
Speaker 3 (50:50):
Yeah. Are you happy? If you're happy, great. That's where
it all goes back to personal.
Speaker 2 (50:55):
Because as you guys talk, you know, I sit here
and I reflect on my mother. I got to just
tell you guys, I have no desire to go to
Australia or travel the world. I mean, when I hear
people talk about traveling, it's just not something for me.
But I do enjoy the simple things in life. I
can sit and have my time is mine. I can
be happy. I can take these walks and I can
(51:17):
do things within an hour or two that I always
wanted to do. And it's not necessary frugality. It's just
enjoying and being at comfort with your life. And that
doesn't necessarily cost a lot of money in retirement. How's
that for philosophy, boys?
Speaker 3 (51:32):
Amen. That was deep, Ron. That was deep.
Speaker 2 (51:36):
Well, no, I mean, as we talk, I mean, that's
just kind of, when I got that email, that's kind
of my perspective, too. I mean, just from that.
Speaker 4 (51:44):
I don't think retirement's all about spending money. It's about
coming up with what you want to do and what
your ideal life is.
Speaker 2 (51:52):
It's staying healthy. The most important thing is to stay healthy,
stay somewhat active, you know, socially and to be able
to take those nice walks on a beautiful day. And
your time is yours. If you want to read a book,
you want to watch television, you want to go to
a restaurant every day.
Speaker 3 (52:09):
Price is right.
Speaker 2 (52:12):
Hey, don't forget the Wheel of Fortune as well, Adam,
if you're going to go after me on that kind
of stuff. I tell you. I love it. There you go.
Let me tell you something. These guys here, they're giving
me a hard time today, but I don't know. Joe
and Adam are all about helping clients make informed financial decisions.
Learn more by giving them a call today. You can
do so at 330-965-9890, 330-965-9890. The office for Rockport is
(52:32):
at 7227 Glenwood Avenue in Boardman. Thank you, Joe. Thank you, Adam,
for this edition of Truth in Investing Rockport Wealth on
NewsRadio 570 WKBN.
Rockport Wealth LLC, doing business as Rockport Wealth Advisors and J.
Arnold Wealth Management, is an investment advisor registered with the
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is properly registered. Registration as an investment advisor is not
an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators and does
not mean that the advisor has attained a particular skill
or ability. Rockport Wealth compensates this radio station for airing
(00:20):
the Rockport Wealth Truth and Investing Show. Ron Verb is
a paid moderator of this program and not a client
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Information presented on this program is believed to be factual
and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and
it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
The subjects discussed.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
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or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy
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of risk, and there can be no assurance that any
(01:00):
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a client's portfolio. Historical performance returns for investment indexes or
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(01:22):
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Speaker 2 (01:36):
Ron Firm from News Radio 570 WKBN. Time now for
the Rockport Wealth Truth in Investing program. Always a joy
to join us is Joe Kovach, Certified Financial Planner. Always
a pleasure to have you on with us, Joe. Appreciate
you being here. In addition to Adam... Adam is joining
us as well. Adam Stalnaker. He is also a certified
(01:57):
financial planner with the Rockport Welder. Boy, I tell you what,
I got two certified financial planners with some great input
that we have and information that we have to share
with all of you. So I encourage you to stay
tuned as we go along here. Hey, I remind you
guys in the beginning as you listen to our broadcast,
if you're looking for trusted financial guidance, contact Joe and
(02:19):
Adam at Rockport Wealth Advisors by calling their office here
at 330-965-9890. They're at 7227 Glenwood Avenue here in Boardman. Well,
we always like to start, guys, with a stock markets
update and kind of a review. And Joe, Adam, give
us your thoughts.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
Yeah. Adam, nothing really happened. No, it's pretty calm. Yeah,
it's pretty calm. No, nothing going on in the headlines.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Son of a gun, are you sure? Are you sure?
I thought yesterday I saw something in the headlines.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
There you go.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
There you go.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
No, so we'll give you a couple different perspectives on this, right?
So through last Friday, you had an S & P
that was up a little over 1.3%. This would be
through the 16th, okay?
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Uh, you know, Dow was up a couple of percent,
you know, two, two and a half or so, a
little bit more than that. NASDAQ up 1.1 Russell, which
is small cap stocks. The Russell 2000 was actually up
almost 8% through Friday of last week, which is, you know, that's,
that's kind of, kind of different. So small caps are
really outperformed this year. And of course, old friends, gold
(03:28):
and silver, uh, gold was up 6% for the year, uh,
Silver is up 25% for the year. So the story continues.
Now we get through Martin Luther King Day and whammo. Yesterday,
would you remember, we always record on Wednesdays. Tuesday was
(03:52):
a noticeable down day.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
The key word being noticeable. You think that was noticeable, Joe?
Speaker 3 (03:58):
It was noticeable. It caught a lot of people's attention,
that's for sure, right? So you had an S &
P that was down a little over 2% on the day.
You had an ad deck that was down close to 2.5%
on the day. And it was a combination of, and
we'll get into this in a little bit more, Adam
(04:19):
and I will, but it's a lot of headline news.
news hitting the hitting the tape over the you know
long weekend right and i think when sometimes when these
things happen over long weekends especially it gives individuals and
institutions a lot of times to kind of stew on
it you know and and create this kind of narrative
(04:43):
around these things that you know they a certain thing
is going to happen and and and we call it
headline risk that that's kind of the word that we
use on these things so you know so if you
kind of stretch this out a little bit for, you know,
we're only on the 20, 20 something of January right now,
21st as of, as of today.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Right.
Speaker 3 (05:01):
And we've got a long way to go this year
and we're going to have other events this year. They're
going to create days like we had, right. I mean,
a 2% down day in the S and P is,
I don't want, it's not common, but it probably happens.
I don't know what Adam, what do you think? Five,
six times a year. I mean, you get at least right.
They happen. And And how you react to them or,
(05:23):
I think more importantly, do not react to these things
is extraordinarily important. We did get emails and calls yesterday.
I knew where you were going with this, though. Yeah. Yeah.
Which was like, what are you guys doing? And the
answer is nothing. Okay. First of all, you don't want
(05:44):
to react on the day that something's happening. The second
thing is you want to look at, though, is what
really changed.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Right.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
And, right, you know, Ron, you see these things, but
did anything really change yesterday?
Speaker 2 (05:56):
Right, as you talk about that, and I would like
to hear your comments about that, but what, I mean,
what's your assessment, like when you see the market go
down that much, what triggered it? I mean, what event
or news story caused it to go down that significant
in that day? And if you could explain that to
me and then go further with what you were saying.
Speaker 3 (06:16):
Yeah, well, it appeared to be a combination of headlines, right?
I mean, the first one was this uh... a lot
around you read about greenland right yes and and uh...
in the care of so the care of fears kinda
came back out okay and you had this the the
the tariff around greenland and if it's not sold to
the u.s which i didn't know you could really buy
(06:36):
a country but apparently it's available.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
For purchase louisiana purchase that's not true yet to go
back to remember my history so.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Study black and black quickly middle school so anyway you
if if this depending on how this played out which
could take you know, a significant period of time, who knows,
but there, there could be additional, uh, tariff taxes on Greenland.
That was one, I think just kind of the overall
mood around that situation, which it's somewhat European countries, right?
Speaker 4 (07:04):
I mean, there's a big old basket of them that
we're going to get tariffed if this didn't happen.
Speaker 3 (07:09):
Absolutely. Right. So, so what kind of, kind of deeper
than you had, uh, you know, that's really to the
whole NATO thing, right. And all that kind of stuff
and who's friends and who's not. So then you had, um,
It's been brewing for a while. The Iran kind of,
are we loading up troops to do something to Iran
or in Iran? There's a lot of unrest in Iran. Well,
(07:31):
I think you see a lot of their citizens uprising.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
I think they've taken a lot. And if you look
at their inflations. We were whining about our inflation.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
About 9%, yeah. This is, what, 48 year-over-year? It's an
astronomical number. I mean, eggs are a lot, right? Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 4 (07:51):
Their currency is collapsing, rise of living costs. They just
don't have the levers to pull like we do.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
Right.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
They don't.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
As a nation, and it's affecting them.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
I don't know if this is the right way to
say it, but it's a good thing. I'm glad to
see them kind of finding back, because I feel like
they're in a press situation.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
Right. Right.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
Yeah, absolutely. So they're they're they're starting to fight their
way back. And then, you know, the third one is
so let me let me back up on this before
we go into the third thing. But I think this
is this is worth worth mentioning. So I made the
mistake of going on to Twitter now called now called
X right over the weekend. And just to get some
(08:34):
casual news, just to get some casual news. And and
I I was scared to death. I mean, World War
III was starting. Greenland was going to be taken over
by force. And my personal favorite in this whole thing
that was all over Twitter was there was going to
be an alien invasion. So these things are all kind
of just– Now what you're going to have is everybody
(08:55):
that's listening, they're going to start Googling this. They are.
And see if they can find these stories. So, Ron,
this is a long-winded answer to your question of what
kind of triggered this. And I think it was just
a conglomeration of events. a conglomeration of headlines, a market
that was really kind of stretched a little bit on,
(09:15):
you know, on valuation side, maybe, you know, we haven't
really had a day like this since, I don't even
know if we had a 2% down day in early November.
I don't know if we did. I mean, we only
fell 5% or something in early November. So I think
all these things kind of hit it once and it
creates fear, right? Which is what headlines are kind of
designed to do nowadays. And you don't, The worst thing
(09:37):
to do is react to these things because it is
purely a reaction if you do something. You don't know.
We don't know. Anybody doesn't know how these are really
going to work out. But I can tell you one thing.
The things we look at haven't changed. Inflation is still
coming down. Let's give that a checkmark. That's good. Growth,
GDP is still going up. Let's give that a checkmark.
(09:58):
That's good. Interest rates are doing what? Probably coming down.
Staying level or coming down. That's a checkmark. That's a
good thing. So the big picture didn't change, which tells
you it was emotion and fear that drove the sell-off yesterday.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
It was basically news-driven based on what you just said.
that brought it down. I mean, but you understand from
a standpoint when you bring up CNBC and you look
at across the top there and you see all that red,
that's why clients start calling saying, whoa, what's going on here?
But I thought you handled it well by saying you
(10:34):
don't want to react based on emotions. Did I hear
that correctly, Joe?
Speaker 3 (10:39):
You heard it absolutely correct. We didn't do anything yesterday.
In fact, if anything, we were looking to buy a
little bit. We never ended up ultimately doing that. Just
to add a few positions that might have been down.
But until we get hardcore fundamental evidence that the fundamentals
have changed or something fundamentally has changed, it's all going
(11:03):
to be driven on emotions and speculation. And speculation is
a horrible thing to base your investment strategy off of. Horrible. Right?
If you go by emotions and speculation, you're going to
probably decide wrong almost every time.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Right?
Speaker 3 (11:18):
Especially on the emotional front. And like I said, we
did get some calls yesterday. We got some emails. It's like,
what are you guys doing? Well, we didn't do anything.
We just You know, I hate to be such a
Debbie Downer on it and say it's like, oh, we
moved this, we did that. I mean, you could have
been a little bit more sensitive and say we're monitoring this.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
Sensitivity is not my strong point. It isn't. Sorry. It's true.
But so, you know, so we'll keep watching. We'll monitor. Now, today,
you know, as we speak, markets back up a little bit. Fine.
So maybe it's a one-day event. Who knows? You know,
we'll see how this unfolds. But until we get some
hardcore evidence that that the real fundamental picture has changed.
(12:01):
You know, we're just going to keep going with our process.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
As you like to say, we're taping this on Wednesday,
January 21st, as we speak about all of this. And
what Trump was speaking at, is it Davos? Did I
say that properly?
Speaker 3 (12:15):
Davos, yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
And who knows what effect that will have on the markets,
whether that's today or in the days ahead, whether that's
positive or negative. But you so often talk, both Joe
and Adam, about volatility. Volatility can be up. Volatility can
be down. But that is the stock market. I mean,
volatility or ups and downs, always has been and always
(12:39):
will be the stock markets. I looked at that yesterday
and said, OK, take a look at all that red.
But I thought, hey, could it stay there? Yeah. Could
it go halfway back up the next day or whatever?
That's just how the market always has functioned. Right.
Speaker 3 (12:56):
And volatility is measured by what we call the VIX.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
Right.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
We talked about this in shows past. So the VIX
is a a numerical calculation based on how options trade.
And the higher the VIX, and I'll get to that
in a minute, the number on it, the more volatile,
you know, you're in a period of high volatility. Well,
we broke through 19 yesterday on the VIX, which is
(13:20):
kind of, it's kind of an in-between number between like
any below 19, you want to view the VIX as,
so if you're kind of looking to track this at home,
if you could put it right into Yahoo Finance or
anything like that, the VIX, just like it sounds, broke
above 19 yesterday. Anything below 19 and lower, that's like
(13:40):
a buy sign for stocks. That's a good thing for stocks.
You're kind of like right now above 19. It's not
a sell zone. You're just kind of in the middle
of like where the market would typically chop around a lot.
And you get above, say, 28, 29 on the VIX.
Now that becomes more of a distress signal, right? Where
(14:01):
you've had a lot of heavy selling stocks volatility that
it's high. So right now we're just kind of in
the middle, you know, working our way through after a
down day. Not uncommon. These things don't resolve themselves in
a day or two. Sometimes it takes a week or two.
But keep an eye on the VIX. That's going to
give you an idea of how much volatility you're going
to see going back and forth. Again, Ron, could be
up or down. Um, you know, in this case, the
(14:23):
downside really triggered the VIX moving up. Uh, typically when
you get big updates in the market, the VIX actually
moves down because the, you know, it's a, it's a
VIX is really kind of more of a volatility indicator.
I think, you know, I personally look at it for
more down on the downside, not the upside, but, but
technically it kind of covers both. So if you're kind
of looking at these things saying, Hey, when are things
are going to settle down? Just watch the VIX. And
(14:46):
when I looked at it earlier today, it was like
18 and a half down a little bit. Um, and it,
You know, that's a good thing, right? We got it
back below 19. Maybe volatility starts to die down a
little bit. Everybody feels a little bit more comfortable. But, Ron,
I love the way you say it. Volatility is the
stock market, right? That is such a true comment.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
Always has been and always, always will be. I mean,
that's just how it is. Let me ask both of you,
Joe and Adam, are joining us. This is the Rockport
Wealth Truth in Investing program. I have Certified Financial Planner
Joe Kovach with me, and Adam Stahlnaker is with me
as well on the Rockport Truth in Investing program on
NewsRadio 570 WKBN. As we go along, and many things
(15:31):
to cover here today, Joe and Adam help clients build
personalized financial plans, call the office to learn more. They're
in Boardman at 7227 Glenwood Avenue. Their phone number is 330-965-9000.
9 8 9 0 3 3 0 9 6 5
9 8 9 0. I want to ask you about
some of the sectors that we talk about, you know,
(15:51):
the best performers as far as year to date sectors
and the worst performers year to date as far as
sectors are concerned, guys. What does that tell us anything?
It does. Right.
Speaker 3 (16:02):
So, again, prior to yesterday. Right. You know, so it
should be no surprise to you. anybody that yesterday's best
sectors in it is a one-day representation where what the
defensive stuff utilities consumer staples stuff you need right right
around that that our buddy Joe bag of donuts needs
um but year to date prior to that technology was
(16:24):
doing really well industrials were doing really well basic materials
were doing really well gold silver of course on the
commodity side we're doing really well um And I would– again,
if nothing changes fundamentally, I would expect that kind of
trend to continue, whereas the underperformers will probably continue to underperform,
(16:45):
which will be more like financials, real estate, in this
case communication services. Those are the laggards here today, right? So–
Is that– or are you talking more commercial real estate?
(17:06):
Are you saying what– Yeah, real estate investment trust. REITs. Yeah,
they're called REITs, which are generally not going to be housing.
Some of them could be housing-related, but this is going
to be more industrial, commercial-type real estate. And they're not
in a good place right.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Now or– because of what people working from home or
what's your thoughts?
Speaker 3 (17:28):
I think it's a combo.
Speaker 4 (17:30):
If you look at downtown Cleveland, there's like three buildings
in receivership right now.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
Is there really?
Speaker 4 (17:36):
I think you've got a combo of people that have
bought buildings thinking that they can rehab them. and make
some money. And then there's just, the money's not there
in it. Like, I mean, even you look at downtown Cleveland,
it's not even commercial anymore. They're taking all the commercial
buildings and making residential residential. When I worked downtown in
oh one, like there was one building of people that
(17:59):
lived downtown.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
It's like no one. And it was everybody that worked. Right.
Speaker 4 (18:02):
And then at five o'clock, everybody went home and there's
nobody there. And now, you know, Megan's out on the town,
seeing all these people walking around town.
Speaker 3 (18:11):
Sorry, Megan. Megan's in with us, so we're going to
harass her.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
Well, she's a party animal.
Speaker 3 (18:18):
She is. She is. I mean, as she should be
at 23, 24, 23, 24, 24.
Speaker 4 (18:22):
Younger than us.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
Speak for yourself, guys.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
That's right. That's right. It's what's in your heart, Ron, right?
It's not the age on your driver's license.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
But like when you guys talk about the worst sectors,
I just was surprised. I think you made an interesting
observation on that. I want to pick your brain a
little bit on financial services. Now, when I think of
financial services, I usually think of banks. Am I in
the right arena here?
Speaker 3 (18:49):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (18:50):
And why are they, you consider, to be one of
the worst performers?
Speaker 3 (18:56):
They're generally a defensive sector, financials are, right? So what's
your defensive sectors? Let's outline that for a second. That's
going to be consumer staples, which are things you need, utilities, healthcare,
and financials, generally speaking, right? And you've had, up until yesterday...
Pretty much a market that just kind of, it had
(19:17):
moved up early in the year and then just kind
of flattened out a little bit. But we were up
for the year. I mean, it was funny. I'll give
you another quick story real quick. So remember, we said
the S & P was up 1.38% for the year
through January 16th. And I had a client call and ask,
what's wrong with the market? And I said, well, if
you got 1% per month, that would be pretty darn good.
(19:42):
right last time i checked that's 12 a year right
and so the answer was there's none of wrong with
the market. It's just that, again, expectations can get out
of whack when you have these kind of bull markets
that have just kind of gone on. And really, we've
been in a bull market other than some minor pauses
since last March, right? You know, in early April, let's
(20:06):
call it. So Memories are short on a lot of
this stuff. But bottom line is, if somebody came to
me and said, hey, the market's going to be up 1%
per month, I'd be like, hey. Where do I sign up? Yeah, exactly.
That's pretty good, right? So some of it's perspective and expectations.
And I don't know. I mean, remember last year, we
got off to a blistering start in January by 10%.
(20:30):
April 9th, we were down 10% for the year after
being up nearly 10% or something like 8%. So it's been–
you could see a similar pattern this year. You could not.
I don't know. I know I'm smart enough to tell
you I don't know, but I can tell you that
the pieces are in place that don't bother us.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
Sure.
Speaker 3 (20:49):
And we'll go back to it. Growth going up, inflation
coming down. Go ahead, Ron.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
Yeah, just to go to another arena, when you talk
about best performers, and one of them is technology, I mean,
when you look at all of the conversation in our
community here about AI and data centers and that kind
of stuff, can I say that doesn't surprise me? Would
you be comfortable with me saying it doesn't surprise me
when you talk about technology? Because they're talking about this everywhere,
(21:18):
AI centers. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (21:19):
They are, yeah. And I think that what has happened
with technology, and Adam, tell me if you agree with this,
is it has now been defined to mean the Mag 7. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (21:30):
Right?
Speaker 3 (21:31):
And everybody at Google, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, you know, so
on and so forth. But technology is way wider than that, right?
And actually, if you look at the net income of
the Mag 7 stocks, it's actually been declining for some time.
Speaker 2 (21:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (21:47):
Okay, so... Maybe, maybe, and again, who knows, we'll see
how it plays over the next year, three years, five years,
but maybe that group of seven has seen their, their
best days, not that they're going away and maybe it's
going to be replaced by other companies. Right, quicker growers.
Speaker 4 (22:04):
Well, I think what you have is you're seeing it, right?
That MAG-7 is lagging, but you see those small caps hitting.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
Right, the IWM, right?
Speaker 4 (22:13):
So a lot of those small caps might be these
up-and-comer technologies, and maybe the MAG-7 will absorb them at
some point because that's what they like to do.
Speaker 3 (22:21):
Could be. Innovation may not be the best underneath those companies.
Speaker 4 (22:25):
They may need to purchase some of these smaller companies,
but I think these smaller companies are starting with interest
rates dropping. cash becomes a little bit more available to them.
And that's why small caps are starting to, I think,
rock it off.
Speaker 3 (22:39):
Right. And tech is very broad, right? Tech could be
defined as the Mag 7. Tech could be robotics, cybersecurity.
I'm just trying to give different areas. If we say tech,
don't go jumping automatically to say Oh, Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, right?
(23:00):
It's just not those. It's just not those.
Speaker 4 (23:01):
It's way wider than that, Ron. Yeah, because I think,
I mean, you made the point. The Mag 7 is lagging.
So if you look at technology being up overall, it's
others that are posting that up instead of the normal
names that everybody sees.
Speaker 2 (23:16):
Right, right. I heard Adam know, Joe, talking about small
caps and what's going on there. So do you think
investors should move into small caps?
Speaker 3 (23:25):
Boy, no advice, please. It's called Jason. I will say
that in the environment, small caps should do pretty well, right? Again,
when you've got the environment of.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
Well, let me put it this way. It's part of diversity.
It would be part of diversity. I mean, maybe that's
how I should word the question. It might be part
of a diversified portfolio.
Speaker 3 (23:51):
Yeah, don't plow all your eggs.
Speaker 4 (23:52):
No, I think there's nothing wrong with having a little
bit in there all the time, just as a diversified portfolio.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
Right. Even with yesterday, and I'll reemphasize that I said
a couple times already today, even with yesterday's event, the
big picture has not changed, at least not yet. Right.
Are we still expecting inflation to come down?
Speaker 1 (24:12):
Yes.
Speaker 3 (24:13):
Are we still expecting growth to go up?
Speaker 2 (24:15):
Yes.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
Are we still expecting interest rates to go down or
stay flat? Yes. Is the Fed still embarking on buying
back bonds and creating what we call QE5, like quantitative
easing five? They're not naming it that yet, but yes,
that's happening. So those are favorable pieces for stocks. And
(24:36):
if the favorable pieces are in play, I got four
check marks out of four on that. By the way,
nothing has to happen. Just because those are in play
doesn't mean that An outside event can't deflect. It doesn't
mean that emotions can't take over and fear can't take
over for short periods of time. These are common events.
(24:58):
All we can do is give you the broader picture
and say, hey, we'd rather see these four in play
than to see inflation going up, growth slowing down, and
interest rates going up.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
I think what you're.
Speaker 4 (25:12):
Saying is more of a foundation to go up than
go down at this point.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
But we always talk about diversity and volatility. And when
I talk about that, incidentally, Adam and Joe, you had
mentioned gold and silver. Silver has been interesting to watch lately.
And any quick thoughts about silver?
Speaker 3 (25:35):
Yeah, it's interesting. It's gone parabolic on the chart. Yeah.
Meaning straight up.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
Let me look that word up. How do you spell parabolic?
Speaker 3 (25:45):
That's the word of the day.
Speaker 4 (25:46):
Not only get financial advice, you get your vocabulary.
Speaker 3 (25:51):
Parabolic means it's kind of going along at a normal pace,
and then it goes straight up, right? I mean, if
you look at a chart from October of 2014, I
can't remember when in 14, but and then to October
of 25, it was basically you got your money back.
Speaker 2 (26:05):
Yeah, right.
Speaker 3 (26:06):
Long periods of nothing. Right. Precious metals. Yeah. And then
it went all. Yeah. Parabolic. Is that what she's in? Parabolic. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (26:14):
You're impressed by that, too, aren't you? I don't want
to use those big words.
Speaker 3 (26:17):
I'm going to use it. No less than 20 more times.
All right, you guys can use it.
Speaker 2 (26:21):
Go ahead. Wait till I go home tonight, and I'm
going to say something about parabolic. I'll work it into
something with my wife, and she'll be impressed. Say, if
you're looking for trusted financial guidance, contact Joe and Adam
at Rockport Wealth Advisors by calling the office. They're located
at 7227 Glenwood Avenue here in Boardman. And the number
(26:42):
for the office is 330-965-9890, 330-965-9890. So if you're looking
for more insight like these, reach out to the team
at Rockport Wealth Advisors, 330-965-9890, 330-965-9890.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
This is the.
Speaker 2 (26:49):
Rockport Wealth Truth in Investing program here on NewsRadio 570 WKBN.
And we'll be back. I'm NewsRadio 570, WKVN, and Ron Verb.
(27:12):
This is the Rockport Wealth Truth and Investing Program, where
we bring in our fiduciaries and certified financial planners. You
heard me right, fiduciaries and certified financial planners. Joe Kovach
is with us. Adam Stalnaker is with us as well,
both certified financial planners. with the Rockport Wealth Advisors and
the Truth Investing Program. By the way, you can find
(27:34):
them at 7227 Glenwood Avenue in Boardman, 7227 Glenwood Avenue
in Boardman. And the phone number for the Boardman office
is 330-965-9890, 330-965-9890. One more time, slowly for you, 330-965-9890.
(27:54):
And so Joe and Adam are all about helping clients
make informed financial decisions. Learn more by giving them a
call today, 330-965-9890. All right, so I want to talk
to you guys in this segment about cash flow during retirement.
It's something that a lot of people worry about. You
seem to have like two ends of things that you think.
(28:16):
Some people think they can never save enough for retirement.
And perhaps they save way too much, and some people
don't save nearly enough. But I would say you would
have to have a good analysis to say, here's what
you got, and here's pretty much what can help supplement
your Social Security. Talk to me a little bit about
(28:36):
what you look for and the advice you.
Speaker 3 (28:38):
Give, guys. One question I think that we get quite
often is, you know, I've saved all this money. How
do I get it out, right? Oh, yeah. And there's
so many different ways to skin the cat. And one
way for one person may not be the right way
for another person, right? So there's different methods behind this
(29:02):
that we'll kind of cover today. And I think it just, again,
depends on your plan.
Speaker 2 (29:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (29:10):
And in your situation, kind of give you some standards,
some some examples of clients that we've worked with. But ultimately,
all these things usually come down to, you know, the
person's personal situation and, you know, what what they're trying
to accomplish.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (29:25):
So it's so we get into this. Let's take a
look at. So the basics behind this are, you know,
you're working years. What are you doing? You're accumulating. Right.
Speaker 2 (29:37):
Sure.
Speaker 3 (29:37):
And then your retirement years, you're distributing. Well, that's super simple.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
Right, right.
Speaker 3 (29:43):
That's the basics, right? That's where you start the conversation, right? Because,
you know, if everything works out like the way it's
supposed to, that's kind of the general theory. But then
it's like, okay, so now how do I get this out? Well,
I think one of the more common theories, and Adam,
you can get into this quite a bit is what
we call the bucket strategy, the bucket theory, right? So
(30:03):
what does that entail for somebody if they wanted to
utilize that strategy for their money?
Speaker 2 (30:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (30:07):
So you talk to people and everybody wants max returns,
max returns all the time. And then I go, okay,
what is this money earmarked for? Well, we're going to
buy a house.
Speaker 3 (30:17):
Okay. What's your timeframe?
Speaker 4 (30:19):
Probably within the next two years. Well, okay, we're not
maximizing returns because we go back to, you know, what
we talked about in the first segment about volatility. You know,
if there's volatility in the marketplace and you need that money, okay,
let's mark it down. Ron, when's the best time to sell?
Speaker 2 (30:34):
Not low. Yeah, usually. I always thought it was. Now,
help me out here. It's like a formula. I got
it on a chalkboard. You sell high and buy low.
Speaker 3 (30:44):
Yeah, exactly. Number one principle right there.
Speaker 4 (30:49):
If anything in here, that's when we want to get
money out, that's when we want to do it. But
I think what people don't realize then is you want
to take less risk when you've got a short-term one
to three years. Because if that volatility does take place
and you get hit with something and you've got to
sell into a down market, that's not a great thing.
Speaker 2 (31:11):
Right?
Speaker 3 (31:12):
Is my money going to be there for that one
to three years that I need at that period of time? Can,
can I maybe make a little depend on it? Right. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 4 (31:19):
So that's where the money markets, short-term bond funds come
into play. I mean, even some CDs in the past,
they're a little bit less in favor now and some
T bills and things like that, where you can kind
of predict a little bit more, uh, on your timeframes. Um,
now if you go to the midterm three to 10 years,
and this can get you closer to retirement, right? So
(31:40):
if you're, you're, You might want to relook at what
your volatility is or what your amount of risk that
you have in that portfolio. And you might want to
look at middle, more middle range, you know, growth or risk,
depending on what your time frame is.
Speaker 3 (31:56):
So more like a moderate or balanced, something like that? No, absolutely. Absolutely.
Speaker 4 (32:00):
And that way you can shift because 3 to 10, right,
you're going to then shift into the 1 to 3 eventually.
And you might want to shift down, you know, a
little bit more, a little less on the risk scale.
And then you've got your long-term, which is your 10 plus,
which that's your growth assets. That's your, Hey, I'm going to,
you know, if I'm in a 401k, I'm setting it
(32:22):
and forgetting it. Right. I'm taking the risk. Uh, there's
not a whole lot of active strategy in it. Or
if you come to people like us, you say, Hey,
I want to be in the growth. You know, I
want you guys looking in those spots where the opportunities
are and I'm willing to take on some risk, some volatility, uh,
because I've got time. And the people that already emailed
(32:42):
us this week, maybe they aren't growth investors.
Speaker 3 (32:47):
Maybe by default. Yeah. They got to rethink it. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 4 (32:51):
But there's nothing wrong with volatility in that 10 plus.
And that's what people, as they're looking at their money
and they're looking at their timeframes, need to understand. And
I think as a whole, a good amount of people do.
I think as they look at their timeframes, they're like,
you know what, I can take some more risk. I
can take some ups and downs because maybe they lived through,
(33:13):
you know, 08.
Speaker 3 (33:14):
Sure. They've been doing it for a while. Absolutely, yeah.
Speaker 4 (33:17):
11, you know, all those different years that have had
large amounts of volatility, they've gotten through it and come
out on the other side and have been better.
Speaker 3 (33:26):
Well, and I think this all ties back a little
bit to what we talked about in segment one, right,
which is it kind of takes some of the emotion
out out of these decisions, right? You know, it's, oh gosh,
things are down. I got to sell. Well, if you
got your next one to three years covered in something
that's not getting hit from crazy headlines, just take a
(33:48):
deep breath. You step back, you know, you got that.
Speaker 4 (33:50):
It doesn't feel good, but no, but ultimately when you
do the math problem and you look at it over time, it's,
it's the right thing.
Speaker 3 (33:56):
For you to do. Yeah, no question. So, so when
you look at this kind of thing and you look
at a bucket strategy, what, Adam, what kind of mistakes
do you see typically for people that are trying to
do these strategies?
Speaker 4 (34:08):
So we've got a lot of people that come to
us and maybe some people that have first time ever
had financial planning.
Speaker 3 (34:14):
So looking at all of everything in one spot and
I'm like, okay, you know, you're doing this, you're doing that.
How much cash do you have on hand? 300,000. Whoa.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
Right. I think, I think ultimately, yeah, but like.
Speaker 4 (34:30):
You know you're losing purchasing power of those dollars, right?
Because inflation is going up and the interest that you're
getting in your checking account is 0.1. So you're literally
losing money in purchasing power by keeping it in there.
Speaker 2 (34:45):
Right.
Speaker 3 (34:45):
And a quick word on inflation is if you have
an inflation rate of, let's just call it 2.5% where
it looks like it's probably trending to, that's not deflation. No.
Prices are going down. They're not going down. They're just
going up slower. So they were going up at 9.5%
rate back in 22. Now it's only 2.5%. So you
(35:06):
still have to keep pace with prices going up.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
Right.
Speaker 3 (35:09):
It's not like they're deflating. No. Right. We haven't had
much deflation. I can't remember the last time. It was
probably 08. I don't know what you consider. Do you
consider gas?
Speaker 4 (35:19):
I'm going off on a tangent here a little bit.
But if gas prices come down, it's not really deflation, right?
Speaker 3 (35:24):
It's just. they're deflating, but it's a contributor, but everything
else is not deflating. So it's a component. That's how
I would view that. What about taxes? We've got to
pay attention to taxes? Not at all, right? No, never. Ron,
you don't pay taxes, do you?
Speaker 2 (35:43):
Oh, yeah. One day I would like to see that happen.
But I want to ask you, before you go into taxes,
when you guys talk about down markets and selling, just
as a side note, The time I think that it
burns a lot of people is when you've got to
take your required distributions. You know, you have that time frame. Now,
I'm going beyond when you're talking about, you know, getting
(36:04):
ready for retirement. I'm talking if you're retired and you
fall into that required minimum distributions and you have that
one year to do it. And sometimes you look at
your time frame or whatever and say, Sometimes you got
to sell when the market's down because of those required
minimum distributions. That's what's depressing.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Yeah, I think people ask us all the time, well,
should I just keep it into the end and grow?
And it's like, well, are you going to spend it?
That's number one.
Speaker 4 (36:37):
If you're not going to spend it, what we do
with a lot of people is we take the taxes out,
transfer it over to another joint investment account and it's,
it's invested the next day. So you don't really lose
that market capability, right?
Speaker 3 (36:51):
Statistically over long periods of time, doesn't apply every year. You're,
you're best off making what contributions at the beginning of
the year and distributions at the end of the year, right?
Because you're putting the contribution in and catching the extra
year of growth and you're getting the distribution out after
you caught that growth. It doesn't hold true every single year,
but generally speaking, that's, that's kind of the best mindset
(37:14):
to have, right?
Speaker 4 (37:15):
And if you just need to take it out and
you don't need to spend it, right? If we're talking
about somebody that says, okay, I need my RMD, I
need to pay my mortgage, I need to make my
car payment, let's look at those in timeframes and make
sure that you got the money in your account to
get that done and not time it up.
Speaker 3 (37:32):
And then sit with a planner, sit with your CPA,
whoever it is, to tax plan this thing out. I mean,
that's important. You've got to know... what you're going to
have to owe on these things at your end. Do
you want to do withholdings and pay as you go?
Do you have to pay quarterlies? These all come into play.
You've got to have some kind of tax planning in
your life. Medicare, right? If you're on Medicare, maybe you
(37:55):
want to take a certain amount of income from one
source like IRAs and take the rest from another source
that doesn't have as much tax to keep you from
getting a bump up in Medicare premium, right? So you've
got to be able to plan these things out a
little bit or at least make an attempt at knowing
what you might owe your rent.
Speaker 4 (38:11):
Well, I think another one that not a lot of
people think of is when they retire early, right? When
they retire early, sometimes your medical premiums are based on
your income. So if you're tapping into IRAs to pay
for that, you know, you could be making your medical
premiums before Medicare go through the roof. And we've had
(38:33):
some of those conversations where as we're planning, and having conversations,
they say, oh.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
No, no big deal.
Speaker 4 (38:39):
And then we talk to the CPA and they're like, well,
they're under Obamacare and they need to keep their income
under a certain level. Well, if you have a non-qualified
joint account that you've got sitting over there, it's more
capital gain than it is ordinary income, you can kind
of balance out.
Speaker 3 (38:56):
Those taxes in that aspect.
Speaker 4 (38:58):
And you can kind of plan through to make sure
you're taken from the right bucket and saving yourself some
extra premium where you could get hit if you take
it out of the wrong bucket.
Speaker 3 (39:09):
And so a lot of this run, so I don't
know if you've ever heard this term before, but there's
a thing called sequences return risk, which is what? That
means you step out the door for retirement, the market
gets throttled down 20% in the first year you're retired
and your plan never recovers, right? That's what we're trying.
So a lot of the bucket theory, what it's trying
to do is negate or reduce the chances of a
(39:34):
sequence of return risk event happening. So Adam, maybe give
five minutes on just sequence return risk and what it is.
Speaker 4 (39:45):
Yeah, so the first year that you come out, right,
and you're taking money out of your account, let's say
you're taking 5%, but the market's down 20%.
Speaker 2 (39:53):
Ouch, yeah.
Speaker 4 (39:55):
It's going to take a long time to recover because
that 5% is taking it at a downside of 20%.
And what is the return needed to get back that 20?
Speaker 3 (40:04):
It's like 33? Yeah. Something like that?
Speaker 2 (40:06):
That's a lot. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (40:07):
More than right. Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 4 (40:08):
But then if you're taking an extra 5% out, now
you're talking probably close to 40% to get that back.
When in all reality, if you plan it out properly,
and sometimes we'll do this with people too, is we'll
set a year's worth of income aside. Um, so it's
not subject to any volatility. Now, is it going to
get major gains?
Speaker 2 (40:27):
No.
Speaker 3 (40:27):
You know, maybe it's sitting in a short-term bond fund
that can get you a couple percent. Bucket one.
Speaker 2 (40:32):
Yeah. Right.
Speaker 3 (40:32):
Bucket one. There you go.
Speaker 2 (40:34):
Right. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (40:35):
So you put that money that you need to live
off of in bucket one, you know, and you can
still keep the other, other pieces, uh, in long-term, uh,
There's nothing to say that you need to have every
single bucket, but what these buckets do is gives you flexibility.
And ultimately, balance and flexibility is what one needs to
have the best plan, in my mind.
Speaker 4 (40:56):
And if you've got the flexibility where you can take,
you know, sequence of returns and take a down year
and not affect your total outcome because you've got that
money set aside, you win.
Speaker 2 (41:10):
Right.
Speaker 3 (41:10):
What if I get a hole in my bucket? Then
you've got to refill it. I don't even. Get off
the welding guy. Is it a metal bucket?
Speaker 2 (41:20):
Some type of trick question Joe's trying to pull on you, Adam.
Speaker 3 (41:24):
Point being, you're replacing the short-term bucket with assets from
the other buckets as they grow. That's how you refill
your bucket. But it gives you that time and that
flexibility to be able to do that and not have
to run, like you said, sell into a down market
if you got your RMDs or whatever it might be.
The worst mistake is selling into a down market. It
(41:48):
is punishing emotionally and your portfolio. Sure.
Speaker 2 (41:52):
On those RMDs, when you're required to take them, let's
say when you're 73, you perhaps want to look over
that year. You have a year, I think. Do you not, Joe,
to take it and say, well, maybe I'll take it
now when the market's up as opposed to waiting and
waiting and waiting, and maybe it'll be down at the
end of the year, and then I have to do it.
I mean, you have some degree of flexibility over that
(42:15):
time as to when you have to take it as
far as the timeframe. Is that accurate? You do.
Speaker 3 (42:22):
Yeah, there's no question about it. And you also, it's
kind of like we always, we've made the comment on
the show in the past, like don't retire by the calendar.
don't take your distributions based on the calendar either. You know,
maybe it's one of those years where the market just
has a really good three to six months to start out. Well,
what's wrong in selling off a little bit and scraping
(42:42):
some off to cover your RMD later in the year, right?
That's active management, that's planning. These are things that you
need somebody to look at. If you're not going to
do it on your own, you need somebody to look
after that for you. So I think the other point
I want to make on this too is, You can
take this, any distributions you can take any way you want,
(43:02):
and it's flexible.
Speaker 2 (43:03):
Right, Adam?
Speaker 3 (43:04):
So I could take mine once a year, my RMD.
Or I could take it monthly. I could divide it
out and take it monthly if I want to do
it that way for better cash flow. Or I could
take it quarterly. There's no rules. As long as you
get it out, you're okay. Don't wait until the last
day of the year. That's tough. We'll not be happy.
Speaker 2 (43:22):
I got to tell you, though, guys, there's two, I think,
dreams we all have. Let me put it that way.
Number one is we all want to die at a
ripe old age of a heart attack when we're 100
years old, right? I mean, when we go, we don't
want to suffer from a stroke or cancer. I'm just
(43:43):
talking dreams. We all want to have that heart attack
when we're very old and die healthy but at a
ripe old age. Maybe that's, you know, dream number one
that we all have. And can I tell you what
dream number two is? I'm ready. Joe, are you ready
for this? Dream number two that most of us have,
all right, is that when we retire, we want to
take out whatever we feel we need to supplement our
(44:08):
social security and have a reasonable lifestyle, if you will.
And let's say that might be $ 2, 000 a month. I'm just,
as a ballpark, just, you know, everything's individual. You would
like to say, okay, I would like to be able
to take this money out and not affect my initial
investment money. You follow me? I want to take it
(44:28):
out of hopefully the gains, and then I'm not going
into what I invested. And if we have a good year,
then I'll make that money up so that I can
do that again the year after that, the year after that.
Isn't that traditionally a lot of people's retirement dream?
Speaker 3 (44:47):
Yeah, absolutely. And you can do that a couple, you know,
one strategy is the bucket strategy. You can also set
up your portfolio to crank out, what, a bunch of
income and dividends. Right. Either through bonds, dividend-paying stocks, and
try to live off the income. So in theory, then,
you're not touching principal if you're able to stay within
(45:07):
the guidelines of spending that your portfolio is generating an income.
And again, just a different strategy. Everything fits everybody a
little bit different. You know, we've got people doing both. Okay.
We've got bucket, bucket theory users. We've got people who
live off income. Um, until you kind of sit down
(45:29):
with a planner and get, get the feel for, they
get the feel for what you're trying to accomplish and
explain it to you. Um, you know, it, there's no
wrong answer. There just isn't. It's just whatever fits you best.
Speaker 2 (45:41):
Yeah. It reminds me. What John Arnold would say quite
often is, okay, let's say we got a strategy like that,
but let's say we're into a down market, just as
an example. Well, maybe on that particular year, you have
to adjust how much you would normally want to take
out or your lifestyle for that year because the market
is down. So there's many ways that you can make adjustments,
(46:02):
including on your withdrawals or your spending end. Would you
give me an aye-aye, Captain, on that? Aye.
Speaker 3 (46:09):
No, I think..
Speaker 4 (46:11):
What people need to do is they need to figure
out their plan by their spending, not by their return.
For example, somebody came in, and I'm just.
Speaker 3 (46:19):
Using these numbers.
Speaker 4 (46:20):
These are not numbers that are returns, but let's say
somebody came in and had a return of 10% last year.
They're like, I don't want to take principal, but I
want to take that 10%. Okay, you're not taking.
Speaker 3 (46:30):
Principal, but... What if the next year is down minus two? Yeah. Right.
Are you giving money back?
Speaker 2 (46:36):
Right.
Speaker 3 (46:36):
Right. So it's got, there's gotta.
Speaker 4 (46:39):
Be balance in there and what you take and understanding,
you know, what you spend and what you need to spend. Um,
I think that's a lot of the conversations we have
around with people because, you know, if you, if you
try to take every single gain out, there will be
a down year at some point. And if you take
all the gains out and then you still need to live, um,
(47:00):
there's no balance in there. So I think, I think
those are conversations that we have that are very common. And,
you know, I think Ron, you bring up good points
that people want to take out their gains, not affect
their principle.
Speaker 2 (47:13):
But not, but not all their gains, as you're saying, Adam.
Speaker 3 (47:16):
Correct. Correct. You're right. Because that, that can be dangerous ultimately. Right.
Speaker 2 (47:22):
But I mean, it's, it's like almost a formula you
guys were saying, because how much do you have coming
in with social security once they take out your, Medicare
costs once you take out of your checking your supplements
and the expenses you have as far as health care
is concerned. And then you look at what do you
have coming in and Social Security and what kind of
(47:44):
supplement do you need to have maybe maintain your lifestyle
or even not necessarily the same type lifestyle. I think
as we get older, you guys know this better than anyone,
I think we kind of spend less, not more, particularly
depending on the age you're at. Because you're not driving
to work all the time. Things just kind of change
(48:05):
as you grow old, expenditure-wise, with the exception of medical, maybe.
Speaker 3 (48:11):
Right, and we tell so many people that. It's like
you're going to spend so much more between 65 and
75 on travel and things you want to do.
Speaker 2 (48:19):
If that's what you want to do. If that's what
you want to do, right.
Speaker 3 (48:22):
Yeah, I mean, it could be anything. I mean, you're
going to feel like doing more when you're younger, when
you're 80, 85. you just maybe not have the energy
level to do it. But then to your point, Ron,
you might be spending more on healthcare, right? Or whatever
it might be. So maybe it ultimately washes out over
time to be about equal. But I think the point
(48:43):
you pull from that is that you set up your plans.
When we do plans for people, we ask them questions like,
what do you want to do in the next five
or 10 years. Let's budget it in. Let's put it
in and see how it affects the plan, right? You
got to account for it. And then we can also
build in long-term care expenses starting at a certain age, right?
(49:04):
To kind of see how it affects the end outcome
on these things. So I think it all goes back
to taking some time to plan. And a plan is
a plan, right? It's not necessarily the way it may
work out, but at least you're taking a shot at, hey,
this is what I think I want this to look like.
Speaker 4 (49:22):
Well, I think that's why we meet with people every year, right?
And ultimately, you know, just had a retiree recently, like,
he was like, well, when do I get money?
Speaker 3 (49:31):
When do I do that?
Speaker 4 (49:31):
I go, let me give you some money, spend it down. Basically,
I'm saying, Try on retirement. Walk around with it. See
how it feels. If you need more money, feel how
it is. Do what you want to do and then
come back to me. Let's talk about this. Let me
lay this on you guys. I got an email the
other day and I could really relate to this. Let
(49:53):
me just read this to you.
Speaker 2 (49:54):
I have been retired for three years now and I
love every second of my very simple, boring life. The
thing for me, I haven't been bored for one second.
I love short weekend trips. and I am better without
a large social network. So I do not feel compelled
to do the things 99.9% of professionals and families say
I do. I most likely will leave a large sum
(50:15):
of money to my only child and to charities I
am passionate about in my view that would be a
success and not a failure. In my view, money is
a tool to live this way while I'm alive. I'm
not frugal at this point, But I just don't desire
(50:36):
most things money can buy. A long walk, which I
take daily, is something I would pay a lot for,
but it just happens to be free. And I think
that describes a lot of people in their retirements, in
my opinion.
Speaker 3 (50:50):
Yeah. Are you happy? If you're happy, great. That's where
it all goes back to personal.
Speaker 2 (50:55):
Because as you guys talk, you know, I sit here
and I reflect on my mother. I got to just
tell you guys, I have no desire to go to
Australia or travel the world. I mean, when I hear
people talk about traveling, it's just not something for me.
But I do enjoy the simple things in life. I
can sit and have my time is mine. I can
be happy. I can take these walks and I can
(51:17):
do things within an hour or two that I always
wanted to do. And it's not necessary frugality. It's just
enjoying and being at comfort with your life. And that
doesn't necessarily cost a lot of money in retirement. How's
that for philosophy, boys?
Speaker 3 (51:32):
Amen. That was deep, Ron. That was deep.
Speaker 2 (51:36):
Well, no, I mean, as we talk, I mean, that's
just kind of, when I got that email, that's kind
of my perspective, too. I mean, just from that.
Speaker 4 (51:44):
I don't think retirement's all about spending money. It's about
coming up with what you want to do and what
your ideal life is.
Speaker 2 (51:52):
It's staying healthy. The most important thing is to stay healthy,
stay somewhat active, you know, socially and to be able
to take those nice walks on a beautiful day. And
your time is yours. If you want to read a book,
you want to watch television, you want to go to
a restaurant every day.
Speaker 3 (52:09):
Price is right.
Speaker 2 (52:12):
Hey, don't forget the Wheel of Fortune as well, Adam,
if you're going to go after me on that kind
of stuff. I tell you. I love it. There you go.
Let me tell you something. These guys here, they're giving
me a hard time today, but I don't know. Joe
and Adam are all about helping clients make informed financial decisions.
Learn more by giving them a call today. You can
do so at 330-965-9890, 330-965-9890. The office for Rockport is
(52:32):
at 7227 Glenwood Avenue in Boardman. Thank you, Joe. Thank you, Adam,
for this edition of Truth in Investing Rockport Wealth on
NewsRadio 570 WKBN.
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