September 9, 2024 • 3 mins
The downside risk is 43% based on earnings multiples right now from current levels.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Facts, facts, details, freedom by the exercise. It's up to them, Florida.
This is the Brian Mud Show. Hello, can cryptos and
stocks go? My first role money is you never let
your money in emotions cross paths unless you want want
less of it, which is certainly not what you're going
for when you are investing. Yet, over ninety percent of
the time that people jump into now they try to
(00:21):
time stocks, they try to time markets. Guess what, they
end up worse off than if they just left their
money alone. Yeah, Ever, ninety percent of the time, you'd
be better off just leaving your money where you put
it originally than messing around with it. That's because we
tend to be emotional creatures. We tend to make mistakes
with that. The US stock market the greatest wealth creation
machine in the history of the world. I want you
to be able to take advantage of it without making
(00:43):
emotional mistakes. So as we take a look at what's
going on in the market, it's getting set for this week.
The now the S and P five hundred NAZAK had
quite the awful week last week. The losses anywhere from
three to five percent based upon the index. The now
three percent away from highs now at the SMP five
hundred and five, the NASAK now eleven percent away from highs.
What a difference a week made in the stock market
(01:05):
has Significant selling ensued following two concerning jobs reports, the
ADP and government Jobs Report, which both showed far fewer
jobs being added than what is needed to keep pace
with population growth for the second consecutive month. For the
s and P five hundred, it was the worst week
in a year. For the NASZAC, it was the worst
week in two years, and the Tech heavy index has
(01:28):
entered back into correction territory. Yet again, that's the kind
of ten percent or more from highs and yet the
jobs reports and the price action for stocks felt kind
of highly predictable heading into the week. The bottom line
is that stocks have been priced for protect perfection. A
twenty five basis point interest rate cup by the Federal
Reserve had already been priced into stocks for September, and
(01:50):
there were several indications the labor market has been weakening
in that last month's reports weren't outliers working against stocks.
A seasonality, September and October have historically been the two
worst months of the year for stocks, so this is
where we are and what's going to happen this week
purgatory until the Federal Reserves policy meeting next week. The
(02:13):
biggest market mover over might be the outcome of tomorrow
night's presidential debate. As for cryptos, what was bad for
tech socks once getting worse for digital currencies. They continue
to trade a lockstep with a Nassik, but with exaggerated moves.
Bitcoin was off about four thousand dollars last week to
fifty four thousand. Etherium likewise dropped about two hundred bucks
to trade around twenty three hundred. Meanwhile, the bill wiz
(02:34):
z etf to represents the top ten cryptos lost over
eleven percent on the week, so they are not holding
when there is selling, when there's speculation that is selling off.
As we take a look, I cannot provide any value analysis.
Value analysis for cryptos because they have no inherent value.
Can for socks because they do using the S and
(02:55):
P five hundred as the benchmark. If only fundamentals and
nothing else mattered. The downside RUS is forty three percent
where we sit today. That is three percent lower over
the past week as fundamentals were slightly lower, but stock
price is dropped faster than fundamentals. We currently have the
most fundamental risk that's been priced into the market in
this cycle since April of twenty twenty one. We are
(03:19):
in one of the three or four most expensive markets
that we've been in over the past twenty years. So
it's still not cheap out there now, even if we
continue to see selling. Do I think we're going to
get like a forty three percent sell off from here? No?
Is it possible? Yes, Let's say it happened over the
short run. If it wouldn't negatively impact your daily life, Okay, great,
you're probably well positioned. If would, at that point, you
(03:40):
probably need a new plan and, if necessary, a pro
to help you with it.
Facts, facts, details, freedom by the exercise. It's up to them, Florida.
This is the Brian Mud Show. Hello, can cryptos and
stocks go? My first role money is you never let
your money in emotions cross paths unless you want want
less of it, which is certainly not what you're going
for when you are investing. Yet, over ninety percent of
the time that people jump into now they try to
(00:21):
time stocks, they try to time markets. Guess what, they
end up worse off than if they just left their
money alone. Yeah, Ever, ninety percent of the time, you'd
be better off just leaving your money where you put
it originally than messing around with it. That's because we
tend to be emotional creatures. We tend to make mistakes
with that. The US stock market the greatest wealth creation
machine in the history of the world. I want you
to be able to take advantage of it without making
(00:43):
emotional mistakes. So as we take a look at what's
going on in the market, it's getting set for this week.
The now the S and P five hundred NAZAK had
quite the awful week last week. The losses anywhere from
three to five percent based upon the index. The now
three percent away from highs now at the SMP five
hundred and five, the NASAK now eleven percent away from highs.
What a difference a week made in the stock market
(01:05):
has Significant selling ensued following two concerning jobs reports, the
ADP and government Jobs Report, which both showed far fewer
jobs being added than what is needed to keep pace
with population growth for the second consecutive month. For the
s and P five hundred, it was the worst week
in a year. For the NASZAC, it was the worst
week in two years, and the Tech heavy index has
(01:28):
entered back into correction territory. Yet again, that's the kind
of ten percent or more from highs and yet the
jobs reports and the price action for stocks felt kind
of highly predictable heading into the week. The bottom line
is that stocks have been priced for protect perfection. A
twenty five basis point interest rate cup by the Federal
Reserve had already been priced into stocks for September, and
(01:50):
there were several indications the labor market has been weakening
in that last month's reports weren't outliers working against stocks.
A seasonality, September and October have historically been the two
worst months of the year for stocks, so this is
where we are and what's going to happen this week
purgatory until the Federal Reserves policy meeting next week. The
(02:13):
biggest market mover over might be the outcome of tomorrow
night's presidential debate. As for cryptos, what was bad for
tech socks once getting worse for digital currencies. They continue
to trade a lockstep with a Nassik, but with exaggerated moves.
Bitcoin was off about four thousand dollars last week to
fifty four thousand. Etherium likewise dropped about two hundred bucks
to trade around twenty three hundred. Meanwhile, the bill wiz
(02:34):
z etf to represents the top ten cryptos lost over
eleven percent on the week, so they are not holding
when there is selling, when there's speculation that is selling off.
As we take a look, I cannot provide any value analysis.
Value analysis for cryptos because they have no inherent value.
Can for socks because they do using the S and
(02:55):
P five hundred as the benchmark. If only fundamentals and
nothing else mattered. The downside RUS is forty three percent
where we sit today. That is three percent lower over
the past week as fundamentals were slightly lower, but stock
price is dropped faster than fundamentals. We currently have the
most fundamental risk that's been priced into the market in
this cycle since April of twenty twenty one. We are
(03:19):
in one of the three or four most expensive markets
that we've been in over the past twenty years. So
it's still not cheap out there now, even if we
continue to see selling. Do I think we're going to
get like a forty three percent sell off from here? No?
Is it possible? Yes, Let's say it happened over the
short run. If it wouldn't negatively impact your daily life, Okay, great,
you're probably well positioned. If would, at that point, you
(03:40):
probably need a new plan and, if necessary, a pro
to help you with it.
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