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April 10, 2026 16 mins
Today's Top Stories - April 10th, 2026
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Your new day starts with the Brian Mud Show, the
news you need to start your morning in the Palm
Beaches and the Treasure Coast.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
Happy Harrod Day, Happy Friday.

Speaker 1 (00:16):
Are you happier now than you are a couple hours ago? Joel?
What's oil doing? It's basically flat now.

Speaker 2 (00:24):
It's when we came on at five this morning, it
was at just over one hundred.

Speaker 1 (00:29):
Yeah it is.

Speaker 2 (00:30):
It's back in ninety eight. So does that change your
your mood? All right, We're pretty much in a place
with you where as oil goes, you go.

Speaker 1 (00:39):
Is that well?

Speaker 2 (00:40):
I am?

Speaker 3 (00:40):
I am happy to see that the Florida's average has
been going down gas presently. You're right, gas price, so
that I just worry how long that's going to last
if oil goes in the other direction. So yeah, but
I'm okay, I'm all right, It's Friday.

Speaker 1 (00:56):
I was a long way of getting to that answer.

Speaker 2 (00:59):
I'm op I'm okay, because that actually was the question.

Speaker 1 (01:08):
I'm trying to decide.

Speaker 2 (01:12):
Happy Friday, even to our buddy Joel, who's probably hanging
on a little too ard to the volatility in the
oil market, which is flat with where we closed yesterday
and around ninety eight dollars of barrel. Now, of course,
as we take a look what's going on, we will
start with Iran and what's doing in the straight or

(01:34):
of horror Moose, and I have a glass half full
analysis for you. The reality is what you make of
it right now. But Fox's Shackie Heinrich kind of sending things.

Speaker 1 (01:45):
Up for us.

Speaker 4 (01:46):
Here an Indian flagged Llen G carrier passing through the
straight up horror Moose. Thursday, President Trump revealing he personally
played a part in facilitating Iran's demand that the ceasefire
also applied to israel strikes on Hespola targets in Lebanon,
telling NBC, I spoke with Phoebe and he's going to
low key it. I think we just have to be
sort of a little more low key. Trump also made

(02:06):
clear in a post the pause could be lifted at
any moment, saying, in part, all US ships, aircraft, and
military personnel with additional ammunition, weaponry, and anything else that
is appropriate and necessary will remain in place in and
around Iran until such time as the real agreement reached
is fully complied with if for any reason it is not,
which is highly unlikely.

Speaker 1 (02:27):
Then the shooting starts.

Speaker 3 (02:29):
I like how she nailed it too on the shed
to makes sure to say it the way that it's
actually written.

Speaker 1 (02:34):
Yeah, the shooting starts.

Speaker 2 (02:36):
Ever since that colorful Sunday Morning post by Trump with
the I n apostrophe, he's become prolific with that. That's
been his new thing. We are we'reout wording, we are
shooting shooting.

Speaker 1 (02:54):
There have been other.

Speaker 2 (02:54):
Ends, but anyway, so here's a glass half full thing.
First of all, we are through two days of the seasfire.
You're like, okay, whatever, now that we have had this
thing hold through the first two days, especially with Iran
being teed off about Israel going after his blah in Lebanon,

(03:16):
which they say was not part of the deal. US
and Israel say, yeah, Lebanon was outside.

Speaker 1 (03:22):
Of the deal.

Speaker 2 (03:24):
So with Iran teed off about that and the seasfire
still holding for two days, that is an exceedingly good sign.
Anytime you have seasfires break down, they tend to do
it quickly because remember, hostilities are our highest at that point.
These are people who have been fighting war, right, and
so the moment they put down their guns and put
down their launchers, and you know they can kind of

(03:47):
cool down.

Speaker 1 (03:49):
That helps.

Speaker 2 (03:50):
That helps, And so being over two days into a
seasfire at this point is constructive independent of the rest
of it. For my friend Joel, who was hanging on
uso tightly to the moment by moment volatility in the
oil market. I'm going to give you a few things
that may be encouraging, may not be.

Speaker 1 (04:15):
Versus.

Speaker 2 (04:15):
Okay, how many tankers per day we're getting through the
straight prior to the ceasefire?

Speaker 1 (04:22):
The answer was was.

Speaker 2 (04:23):
Two to three, two to three, or in the neighborhood
of just under two to three percent of what ordinarily would.

Speaker 1 (04:32):
Begin through there. Okay, So what happened day one of
the seasfire? Seven?

Speaker 5 (04:38):
Okay?

Speaker 1 (04:39):
Not exactly normal.

Speaker 2 (04:40):
And I do think there was an expectation by some
people It's like, oh, it straight to open.

Speaker 1 (04:43):
It's good. It's no.

Speaker 2 (04:45):
And that's why oil, which was at sixty five dollars
a barrel prior to this thing, ended up hanging in
the upper nineties after the seasfire, because we're still long
way from normal operations. Okay, well, yesterday we went from
seven to.

Speaker 1 (05:05):
Nine.

Speaker 2 (05:08):
You're like, that doesn't sound all that great, right, okay,
So two things about it. There were more takers getting
through importantly, importantly, one of those was energy.

Speaker 1 (05:21):
The other.

Speaker 2 (05:21):
In the first day of the ceaspar it was all
a dry cargo, so you finally did get some energy
through the strait. That's a good sign. The other thing
is the ships that got through held a lot of cargo,
so they represented eleven point seven percent of what ordinarily
would have gone through the strait. So you had just

(05:42):
under twelve percent of normal activity take place yesterday. Still
not good, but a lot better.

Speaker 1 (05:47):
Than next to no think.

Speaker 2 (05:49):
Moving in the right direction, in other words, But here's
a much bigger thing. And this has evolved quite a
bit this morning, actually, since you are looking at oil
prices one hundred dollars a barrel at five o'clock this morning, Joel,
and we're nervous about it. One of the things I've
been taking a look at is what if you're going
to be insured, if you're one of these these cargo

(06:13):
ships looking to get through that straight?

Speaker 1 (06:16):
How much do you have to pay to get insurance
to get through that straight? Right now?

Speaker 2 (06:21):
Do you know what the war premium was for a
policy two days ago?

Speaker 3 (06:27):
I would have no idea.

Speaker 2 (06:29):
Five percent of your claim to value, Okay, five percent
of what that is an enormous amount to have to
pay for insurance, five percent of the total value of
what you're trying to get through.

Speaker 1 (06:44):
And I assume that's gone down when.

Speaker 2 (06:46):
We came into the show this morning. And let me
put this in perspective for you. The normal rate is
zero point one five percent, okay, So point one five
is what you typically.

Speaker 1 (06:59):
Pay for insurance to get through the straight Okay.

Speaker 2 (07:01):
We were up to five percent at the worst coming
into the show this morning, we were at one and
a half percent, so we were still at a factor
that was ten times the norm, though a heck of
a lot better than five percent. Now where we are
in real time by far the lowest that we've been

(07:22):
at any point since the war began. The war risk
premium is under one percent in real time. It's at
point eight point eight now. That is still five times
norm but again, two days ago when the ceasefire first
hit five percent, coming into the this morning, one and
a half percent real time point eight percent. And by

(07:43):
the way, oil is back to where it closed yesterday
ninety eight. That tells you, I mean, you have all
kinds of people that say stuff and don't know things.

Speaker 1 (07:52):
Price is truth.

Speaker 2 (07:53):
Price is truth, and that tells you that there is
an increased comfort level in getting through that straight right now.
Uh so stand by for more news. And by the way,
also just this your economics of it. I know you
are not.

Speaker 1 (08:07):
That that that tanker captain Joel, that's like, come on, run,
revolutionary guard. I'm ready. You're not that guy.

Speaker 2 (08:16):
You're not gonna be the risk tickers like I'm going
to see what the heavy uh the heavy pet down
by the IRGC looks like getting through there.

Speaker 1 (08:24):
You're not that guy.

Speaker 2 (08:24):
But for the person who's like, you know what, I'm
tired of being here and I can I'll deal with
the IRGC. Some of it's been economics because maybe your
company's not going to pay that much for insurance to
get get your ship through. So maybe we're getting to
levels we're going to see activity pick up because they
can buy the insurance at a rate that economically is

(08:48):
more sustainable for him as well.

Speaker 1 (08:50):
So all these things are constructive. By the way. That
is real time.

Speaker 2 (08:55):
Three D kind of level analysis that I guarantee you
are not gonna get anywhere else because I don't think
there's anybody else that has direct analysis into what the
insurance rate is to get a tanker through the straight
offour moose real time.

Speaker 1 (09:08):
So there you go. I don't know if that excites
you or not, but just it is, it is.

Speaker 3 (09:13):
It is that makes me feel a little bit better
for what it's worth.

Speaker 1 (09:17):
Very good. Well, then mission accomplished.

Speaker 2 (09:21):
As for as for next step, So the whole Lebanon
hes Bla Israel thing, this is a big deal if
we're going to have a permanent peace deal negotiated with
a run and less obstruction with the IRGC getting through
the straight boxes.

Speaker 1 (09:40):
Mike Toven.

Speaker 6 (09:42):
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Night, Yeah, who So the goal
of the talks is to disarm hes bloh and to
create a historic piece agreement between Israel and Lebanon. The
obstacle is Iranian proxy hes Blop. Israel has intensified air
strikes into the south of Lebanon, in fact, all the
way up to by Root the intention of disarming hesblu
stopping the rocket fire. They claim to have killed some

(10:04):
two hundred hes BLA operatives. Aron says that's a violation
of the seasfire. But the US and Israel insists Lebanon
is not part of the Seasfire talks with Israel. Lebanon
will be handled by ambassadors for each country.

Speaker 1 (10:17):
Okay, So here is what I believe to be going on.

Speaker 2 (10:21):
And I ran this by our White House correspondent John Decker.

Speaker 1 (10:24):
He thought it was on point.

Speaker 2 (10:25):
My analogy here you could kind of look at what
goes on with Lebanon and HEZBLA the same way as
the Mexican government and insert awful drug cartels here. Does
Mexico really want the drug cartels operating the way they
do the government? You might be like, yeah, you know,

(10:49):
there are people in the tag I'm sure they are
corrupt Mexican officials that are on the take I'm not
talking about but the at large, principally like the President
of Mexico. Now, they don't want cartels in control of
whole parts of the country. Right, But why does it exist? Well,
because military may not necessarily have the wherewithal to be

(11:12):
able to deal with them. And in fact, a lot
of the Mexican drug cartels were special ops military personnel
prior to getting involved in these drug cartels, and so
they brought like they are these special ops guys that
taught special ops to all these games, and so they
might even be more skilled, let alone armed than the

(11:35):
Mexican military. Well, Lebanon is a similar situation. Lebanon has
no interest in his bla. They are in Iranian tarra proxy. However,
a mighty as the Lebanese army may be may not
be equipped to take on what his blaw is with
Iranian arms. So that's the reason that exists. So the

(11:58):
real hang up here with Israel. Lebanon is going to
be on board with Israel and saying yeah, this would
be great we get rid of Hesbah. The question is
how do you do it? How do you do it?
And so there is a there in this negotiation. The
question is going to be what this looks like through
the weekend, as we're supposed to engage in first steps
towards permanent peace talks with Iran while Ron is clear

(12:21):
that they're unhappy about the Hesbawl Lebanese situation, and those
talks are on going with Israel and Lebanon.

Speaker 1 (12:26):
So that will be what you should watch on that
this weekend.

Speaker 2 (12:30):
Meanwhile, you had this playout with the First Lady yesterday
Fox is Kevin Cork.

Speaker 7 (12:37):
First Lady of the United States of America Milania Trump,
forcefully denying online speculation she had any ties to convicted
sexfender the late Jeffrey Epstein or his accomplice, convicted Felon
Gallinn Maxwell.

Speaker 5 (12:50):
The lies linking knee with the disgrace for Jeffrey Epstein
need to end today.

Speaker 7 (12:57):
The First Lady called on Congressional lawmakers to hear the
testimony of Epstein's victims, give.

Speaker 5 (13:03):
The victims their opportunity to testify under oath in front
of Congress with the power of sowar and testimony.

Speaker 7 (13:13):
The President said he had no idea she was going
to make a statement about all this, but he backed
up her claim that she did not know Jeffrey Epstein.

Speaker 2 (13:21):
By the way, there's one thing about Millennia in particular,
continues to undermine the left's argument. You know how they
always like inflating illegal aliens with immigrants.

Speaker 1 (13:30):
They just like to call them immigrants. You know, we're undocumented.

Speaker 2 (13:33):
They're clearly not pro legal immigrants. They left to clearly
not be. I mean, take look what they say and
do with regards to Milania.

Speaker 1 (13:42):
Here you have here, you have a woman.

Speaker 2 (13:45):
That speaks many languages fluently and has brought a great
deal to our society and the party that claims to
be so pro immigrant and once again has proven with
her that they and pro women by the way, because
they love women or for the women, not millennia, not

(14:06):
legal So your anti immigration party, anti legal.

Speaker 1 (14:12):
Immigration party, would be your Democrat party.

Speaker 2 (14:14):
They are pro illegal immigrant, and I think the reason
is because legal immigrants are likely to take a look
at Democrats and go no way. It's only the illegal
aliens that have gone a ssay, That's what I say say.
And then they get all the government goodies, the NGOs
and all that. You know, your your typical bottom feeding

(14:36):
Democrat types.

Speaker 1 (14:37):
You know, it's the ones that take to get the handouts. Yes,
they live off of everybody else.

Speaker 2 (14:41):
Yes, So it's there you go, just public service in
terms of the lines of demarcation. There by the way
history off the coast of San Diego.

Speaker 8 (14:52):
Later today, Artemis two is coming home tonight.

Speaker 9 (14:56):
There will travel four hundred thousand miles that we'll have
seen with no living person a scene. It'll have tested
every system on the spacecraft in the environment it was
built for. And then we'll have given us ten days
of data that we'll shape every mission that comes.

Speaker 8 (15:07):
After NASA is a meet Shathria at the Johnson Space
Center in Houston. The crew of four journeyed to a
point in space never before reached by humans, more than
two hundred and fifty two thousand miles away and on
the far side of the Moon, the first humans to
visit in more than fifty years. Their spacecraft and orion
capsule they've named Integrity, will splash land in the Pacific

(15:31):
off San Diegos Coast.

Speaker 2 (15:34):
Look at that in real time oil and ninety seven
dollars a barrel and make you help in your Friday morning.

Speaker 1 (15:39):
Joel Oon Polkito, Senor.

Speaker 2 (15:42):
There is something that's doing in real time. I can't
tell you what it is, but for the insurance right
to have come down as much as it has over
the past couple of hours, as we've also seen the
price of oil incrementally come down to something constructive is happening,
or at least somebody with a lot of juice and
a lot of money to throw around. But also the

(16:04):
insurance companies, because the insurance companies, you know, I mean,
they're pricing it out again.

Speaker 1 (16:07):
Price is truth. That's more than just a bet that's
encouraging all Right coming up,
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