March 19, 2024 • 42 mins
March Madness is here! The bracket is out and Jon Jansen is breaking down the tournament with Mid Major Matt!
-How much of a juggernaut is UConn?
-How did Danny Hurley turn UConn into a powerhouse so quickly?
-Can Purdue finally get out of the first weekend of the tournament?
-12 seed to most likely move on?
-What lower seeded teams could make a run?
-NIT Preview
-How much of a juggernaut is UConn?
-How did Danny Hurley turn UConn into a powerhouse so quickly?
-Can Purdue finally get out of the first weekend of the tournament?
-12 seed to most likely move on?
-What lower seeded teams could make a run?
-NIT Preview
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
It's another episode of the Line ChangeFox Sports The Gambler. Well you're back.
Took a week off because Sean Bracehad to take a vacation, so
I'd to be Sean Brace for aweek. Line Change is back at it.
Wherever you get your podcasts, whetherthat is the Apple Store or wherever
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(00:21):
The Gambler. My name is JohnJansen. Follow me at Jay Jansen thirty
four. One of my favorite gueststhat I used to bring in the Line
Change all the time to talk somefootball, college basketball mostly. I mean,
his name is mid major Matt fora reason because well he nails mid
major college basketball and all college basketball. It is Matt Joseph's Matt. It
has been a while, it is. It's good to talk college basketball if
(00:43):
you again, Oh yeah today,I don't think there was a lot of
productivity around the country. Everybody fillingout brackets, n brackets, CBI brackets,
all that fun stuff. How manybrackets do you fill out? Uh,
I'll do three. Maybe I'm notin as many pools as I used
to be. I'll do one thatI fill out, like right after the
show and then I'll do one afterthinking a bunch, and then maybe like
one really close to the start,just in case something changes. Yeah.
(01:07):
Mine, I end up just fillingout brackets whenever I have time, So
I end up with at least maybeseven or eight. Not all of them
are in polls, but I justlike filling them out. I just like
to do chaotic ones, ones whereyou know, I just go with something
different. I don't know. It'sfun to fill out a bracket, but
it's also fun to bet on itas well, and I think that's starting
to take take priority now is morebetting. But I'm gonna start off right
(01:30):
away with the tournament. Usually itis, it's a lot of underdogs we
asked for what's the upsets? Ijust want to ask about Yukon. I
think I'm most fascinated coming into thistournament is how locked in Yukon is as
the number one team and how muchbetter they seem than ver everyone else.
So I ask that, I mean, how much better are they than everyone
(01:51):
else? And should we be lockingthem in for the most part as the
team to win it all? Onour brackets? Yeah, I think Yukon's
the best team in the country.I think it's pretty healthy margin before number
two comes along, and that's probablyHouston, I would say, as the
second best team. But I mean, Yukon's just deep. They've got a
great coach, they've been they havenot fallen prey to the whole like,
hey, we won last year,let's play a little lase fair. In
(02:14):
the second year they played that,they're arguably even better this year, it
feels like at times. And yeah, their bracket's a little tough. Auburn
will be interesting if they get therefor the Sweet sixteen, and then of
course, you know they may seesomebody good in the Elite eight, whether
it's Illinois or Iowa State. Butlike, nobody really scares me because they're
on the half of the bracket wherethe final four. I think there's gonna
be chaos in North Carolina's region.And then if they play Houston the championship
(02:38):
game, Like, Houston's defense isreally good, but I don't think their
offense can keep up with Yukon.How did that happen with Yukon, Because
I mean, I look at thatroster, it's not full of a bunch
of NBA talent. Usually some ofthe one done guys like, you know,
we've seen Anthony Davis Carey team,but even just locally the Villanova teams.
I mean, we found out there'sa bunch of NBA players on that
team, and it was really goodback in twenty eighteen. But this this
(03:00):
is different. I don't know,it just it feels like this team is
a machine. Why is that whathappened with Yukon for the past couple of
seasons that has made them sort ofthis juggernaut all the while not I think
having It's not to say they don'thave talent. It's not overwhelming talent.
It's just they're well coached, theyplay well, everything works together. How
did that all kind of come togetherfor Danny Hurley? I mean, I
(03:21):
think you look, they brought backa lot of the talent. Tristan Newton
came back, Alex Caraban came back, donov and Klingen came back. They
were good, but they weren't goodenough for the minute for the NBA.
And then you bring in a freshmanlike Stefan Castle, and then you addvocate
like Cam Spencer who was pretty goodat Rutgers and now has taken in another
level. I think that's kind ofhow how you have to be in college
basketball nowadays? You have to havethe right returnees, you sprinkle in some
(03:44):
freshmen, and you sprinkle in theright transfers. And I think that's how
you make a roster. And that'sexactly what U constune this year. How
strongly will this program be moving forward? I mean, is Danny Hurley building
kind of a dynasty here? Dynasty? They have to still win this tour
and they have to do a lotof things to be that. But is
that kind of what we're on thecusp of with Yukon? I would think
(04:06):
so. I mean, I'm notfamiliar with what their NIL stuff is,
but I imagine they probably have areally good NIL program. And I would
yeah, I would imagine that thisis a team that's gonna be up there
for a while now. If youlook, you know, Tristan Newton's probably
gonna be gone. It's funny becauseyou look at the guys who are seniors,
but are they really seniors because we'restill dealing with the Covid year stuff.
You know, Donovid klingon how muchlonger is he gonna be there?
(04:27):
Caravan? Is he coming back?Cam Spencer's a senior so like they you
know, is Castle going to comeback? So I think there's a you
know, some question marks for thisroster. But if you're Danny Hurley and
you come into a kid's living room, like you're gonna he's gonna get some
good recruits and he's gonna get theright transfers. So I think that they
this is a very important offseason becausethey're gonna have some holes to fill.
But yeah, if he does theright job, then like, yes,
(04:48):
this is gonna be a team that'sgona be around for quite a while.
Can he take the mantle now asthe best coach in college basketball? I
mean that's a that's a good question. You know. Look, I think
he's up there. I think CalvinSampson's up there. I think Bruce Pearl
is up there. I think,you know, there's a couple of guys
who are on the cusp of beingthe best. You know, if he
(05:08):
could do the back to back thing, you'd have to say yes. But
until he does the back to backthing, I think he's you know,
top five. Ish Calipari's up there, even though you know Kentucky's had their
issues the last couple of years.I would say he's definitely top five,
and if he wins the back toback, then yeah, he's probably the
best. Since you mentioned Kentucky,I'll go that route. They've been one
of the teams that I think I'veseen a lot of betters kind of gravitate
(05:29):
towards that can win the national championship. You know, they had a little
bit longer odds. I know they'vegotten shorter as the season has gone along,
but Kentucky seems to be loved andit's it's odd to me because usually
that's not the kind of team wego for. They're not good defensively.
They're a really good offensive team,but we know sometimes it doesn't play well
in the tournament. Your thoughts onKentucky and why did everybody during the season
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kind of fall in love with thisteam as a potential contender. Kentucky is
a team that I do have.I don't remember when I put it down.
I put a couple down in Kentuckyto win at all when they were
like twenty to one or something.You know, it's not one of my
favorite futures, but you kind ofas the season goes along, you take
some you know, speculative chances andthings like that. But Kentucky's offense is
(06:12):
as good as anybody else's in thecountry. And when Kentucky's on, they
could beat almost anybody else in thecountry. And as you just mentioned,
though, the defense is the problem. You know, you look at some
of these games where they lose.You give up ninety seven, the Texas
A and M, you give upyou know nine, They beat Vanderbilt ninety
three to seventy seven. You know, giving up seventy seven points. The
Vanderbilt is still a lot. Theninety one eighty nine game at Mississippi State.
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These are not exactly world class offenses. So the problem will come in
the tournament when they face an offensewho can keep up and then Kentucky goes
cold and they don't play defense,and they're not hitting their shots and they
can't rely on getting a stop.And you know, I think it'll be
interesting because Oakland's offense isn't terrible.Now, I'm not saying that the Golden
Grizzlies are going to win. Ido like what Greg Camp He's done in
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Oakland, but like you know,this will be a higher scoring game,
and if Kentucky does have a littlebit of a lull. It could be
a little bit of a close game. Now, the problem is if Kentucky
comes out firing and they you know, they're making everything, this game will
be not even close. But theWildcats are gonna be that team. I
think that you're gonna either put toofar in your bracket or not far enough.
So Kentucky one of the teams Iknow everybody's falling in love with and
(07:16):
one team that nobody trusts Purdue.Is this is this the year they are
well equipped enough to avoid a letdownearly in the early rounds? And is
this a team that can finally makea run after being good for what the
last few years? And number oneseed again? Are they are they better
equipped this year to make a runof the tour? So I think Purdue
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is an interesting story because they couldbe on the UVA redemption arc where UVA
loses to UNBC and wins the championshipthe next year. And if you remember
in that next year when UVA wasa one seed or when they were a
higher seed, they were down tothe lower seed in that first half,
and everybody's wondering, well, waita second, is it really in their
head? So like Purdue's gonna haveto deal with the fact that their one
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sixteen game will be one of themost watched of all the one sixteens because
they lost to US sixteen last year. So I wonder how Purdue's gonna handle
that. I'm not a Matt Painterguy. I think Matt Painter is a
little bit of the issue with regardsto Purdue. I mean, look,
you got Zach Edy in a way. You should just throw it up to
Zach Edy every time if there wasa way, and you could probably win
a lot of basketball games, andthey feel like at times they get away
(08:20):
from that. You know. Ithink Purdue's got an interesting bracket. You
know, Kansas with mccullar and Dickinson'sstatus being a little questionable if they play
Kansas as a different team. CanZaga I think is pretty good this year.
And then you look at that bottomwhen you look at Creyton. I
think Crayton could beat anybody. They'rea three point shooting team. And the
great thing about a three point shootingteam is if they're hot, they could
beat anybody. The problem is ifthey're cold, they could lose to anybody.
(08:43):
So I think Purdue can win acouple of games. But how are
they going to handle the focus thatthey're going to need for that one to
sixteen that a North Carolina's not gonnaneed that, A Houston's not gonna need
that, A Connecticut's not gonna need. They're just going to dispatch their six
teams pretty quickly. How will Purduehandle the extra attention? Yeah, it's
it's gonna be interesting early on.They just see how they handle that pressure.
(09:03):
I mean, it's been three straightyears now that they've had early exits,
and that's that has to be ontheir mind. And you mentioned sort
of the rest of that. Thatregion Crighton's the one that interests me the
most. Tennessee though. Tennessee haslooked good at times, very good at
times this season. I thought theywere in line to get a number one
seed. They end up not doingwell in the SEC tournament and they end
(09:24):
up falling out and getting a numbertwo seed. But is Tennessee how strong
are they in your opinion? Ormaybe not at all? In this region.
I don't like Tennessee. I've neverbeen a Rick Barnes guy, you
know, go back to his timein Texas. Look at what the Tennessee
has done in March. Rick Barnesis the type of guy like when it
comes to March madness, I wantto back up coaches and players. That's
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why I like it. Danny Hurley, That's why I like it. Calvin
Sampson, That's why I like someof the other coaches that you know,
we may talk about. Rick Barnesis not a guy I want to back.
Now. I think they're gonna beatSaint Peter's. Of course, last
year we said, you know,I think Purdue's gonna beat Saint Peter's.
And then I think that you lookat that next game against Texas or Colorado
State or UVA, like that's gonnabe an interesting game for Tennessee. And
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then you know, once again,they might see Crayton, and this Tennessee
team's a little bit better equipped offensively, but like you know, Creyton could
shoot them out of the gym rathereasily. So I don't want to trust
Tennessee. My futures money's not goingon Tennessee because I just don't like Rick
Barnes. When you saw the bracketfilled out and revealed on Selection Sunday,
was there a team that you sawthe roadmap four and went okay, because
(10:30):
I think we were waiting for alot of that. There's not a team
only Yukon, really Houston that arevery good, we know are gonna make
deep runs, not really matchup dependent, especially Yukon, so we know them,
but there were some other teams becausethe year was kind of weird.
Where you go, okay, wherecan we find maybe a good region or
a good path to get to aSweet sixteen a Final four? Do you
think was there a team that kindof everything fell into place and you identified
(10:54):
and go okay, that team certainlycan make a run here. So as
a fan of gat Zaga, Ihate to say this, but I think
things line up decently for Saint Mary's. You know, that Grand Canyon game
is going to be really tough,but I think that Randy Bennett is a
guy I don't like, as youknow, as a Gonzaga guy, but
like Randy Bennett's a pretty good coach. And you know, obviously what Grand
Canyon has done is tremendous and it'sgoing to be an interesting game. But
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I think Saint Mary's playing Alabama mostlikely in that second round. Like Saint
Mary's style is going to frustrate thecrap out of Alabama. Like it's just
gonna be one of those things whereAlabama wants to run, run, run,
run run, and Saint Mary's justgonna be like, no, we
are not running. We're going toplay this game at our half core pace.
We're gonna make you work on defenseand everything. And I think that's
the right type of thing when you'relooking at the gals. And then look
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if Saint Mary's plays in North Carolina, same thing. North Carolina wants to
run, you know, Saint Mary'sdoesn't want to run. And remember last
year Saint Mary's played nor Yukon prettywell, was even beating them until they
had an injury in that game andthen things went to hell. But like
I think, I think Saint Mary'shas a nice little path and could be
that sleeper team if you want tofind somebody ouse the ones, the twos,
(12:01):
the threes to make a final fourrun. I was really surprised that
I kind of landed on the samething when I'm filling out the bracket,
just kind of the first initial reactionsand just kind of clicking and seeing how
things kind of fall into place.I was really shocked that Saint Mary's to
me, I think I had themgoing to like a final four. I
really liked how kind of that thatregion falls for Saint Mary's. But then
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I also have been seeing a lotof Grand Canyon love. Tell me about
this Grand Canyon team and this matchupin particular. We do like five twelve
matchups, We like those for upsets. But why maybe is Grand Canyon for
you? And again you did mentionit was a tough matchup, not an
easy one. But what is thismatchup like for Saint Mary's in the first
round, because I think a lotof people identify that as the twelve seed
to potentially get the upset. Imean, you know, Grand Canyon is
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a team coached by Bryce Drew whowent twenty nine and four. Now,
one of the things I always liketo do when you look at some of
these twelves and these thirteen so thateverybody's like, oh, they're gonna beat
somebody. Oh they're gonna do this, Like you kind of have to look
at their non conference schedule and seebecause if they you know, they beat
a bunch of nobodies and they lostto the tough teams on their schedule,
like that's going to kind of downgradeyou a little bit. And you look
at Grand Canyon. They lost byseven in a neutral court game against South
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Carolina, and I would say theirbest win is San Francisco. They did
beat San Diego State at home,but that was a home game, and
so San Diego State's not going tohave to play a home game and Grand
Kenyon is not going to play ahome game. But you look at this
Lopes team. They play really gooddefense. They're tenth in the country in
two point percentage. They want togo a little quicker, so I think
it'll be a style contrast here.Who's going to want to go? And
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you rarely see Saint Mary's run.You just look at the possession numbers for
Saint Mary's so far this season.They rarely go seventy possessions. They've gone
seventy possessions or more twice the firstgame against somebody named Cal Saint Stanislass and
then they went in double overtime againstUNLV and that was a seventy seven possession
game in double overtime. So nobody'sbeen able to make this Saint Mary's team
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run. And I think Grand Canyoncould struggle a little bit in a half
court and we'll see. It'll bea tight game, but I think Saint
Mary's gets the win there. Yeah, twelve seeds usually are the upset that
people are looking at the most.It's happened in almost every tournament for the
last I think I just saw thatstat. It's the last thirty two of
the last thirty eight tournaments, andtwelve is beat to five. What's one
(14:16):
for you? Most qualifies for thatas a twelve to be to five.
So it's it's an easy answer forme because I've covered this team all season
here in Virginia. It's James Madison. When I you know, I just
mentioned the non conferencing Jamu's first gameof the year way back in the first
Monday of the year, they wentto Michigan State and won. Now,
granted, the Michigan State's not whatthey used to be, but like we
didn't know that at the time.We expected a great Michigan State team and
(14:37):
JAMU went there in overtime and beatthem. And then ever since that day,
they've gotten more attention from everybody.They've gotten a lot more focused.
The stat was every road game inthe Sun Belt they had the most attendance.
Now, granted, it's the sunBelt. But like everybody wanted a
piece of James Madison. It's funnybecause when you watch the selection show and
they had Wisconsin up there and theyrevealed the opponent, Wisconsin didn't look thrilled
(15:01):
to see James Madison there. SoJAMU will not be intimidated. JMU shoots
threes really well. Wisconsin doesn't defendthe three point line well. JMU has
the size to match up with Wisconsin. And remember this is a Wisconsin team
the beginning of February that lost toRutgers, that lost to Michigan. Like,
I'm not scared of a Badger's teamwho might not have made the tournament
or might have been a little bitlower seed if they didn't go on the
big ten tournament run that they did. So I'm gonna get to the first
(15:24):
four games. Usually we do seeat least, you know, either the
eleven in this case this year it'sthe ten seeds. We do kind of
see at least one of these teamsend up making some sort of run.
I know, Colorado to me,I like Colorado. I do think they
win that matchup against Boise State.And then we got Virginia and Colorado State,
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any of the play in teams,the first four teams that you like
or could potentially win a couple ofgames here in the tournament. Well,
I'm not going to the Virginia routeagain. I've lost way too much with
Virginia. I mean I've covered themas well and talked about them. I
mean, they're one of the worstfree throw shooting team in America, and
if they make their free throws,they probably have a couple more wins and
their seed is a whole lot better. They're aesthetically unpleasing. You know,
(16:07):
you watch them play basketball. It'shalf the possession. You don't know what
they're doing exactly. You're right,you can't. You can't figure them out.
Here's the thing, though, I'manti Mountain West until they do something.
You know, the last two years, outside of San Diego State run,
the Mountain West has gone over.They've lost to all the game all
the other games pretty much. Soto me, you're looking at Colorado State,
who thinks they were underseated and mayhave been underseated, But to me,
(16:30):
that was the one thing the committeegot right. Like, I understand
everybody's unhappy the mount West teams areunderseeded well win some games show us that
this conference is more than just beatingeach other up. So I think Colorado
State maybe wins that game. It'salmost weird. It's like Virginia, who
doesn't win games in the first roundlately, against Colorado State from the Mountain
West, who also doesn't win alot of games lately. So it's two
teams that are trying to change thepedigree of either their conference or their program
(16:55):
and Colorado. Does that mean you'vekind of favored them in that one?
Yeah? I think so. Onceagain, it's kind of one of these
things where like I'm fading the MountainWest until they show me something, and
Colorado shoots the three really well andthey play some good defense. So yeah,
I do lean Colorado in this situationbecause I just I can't. Until
the Mountain West wins more games,I can't back them. We've been seeing
(17:17):
it more and more every year.Lower seeds, the lowest seeds end up
actually being competitive. Sometimes they've stolensome wins. We've seen fifteen seeds win,
We've seen sixteen seed wins. Howwhat's the lowest seed you have that
could potentially win that you think,Okay, here's a fifteen seed out like
a sixteen seed. Not to saythey will, but is there potential for
(17:38):
any of that this year from thematchups that you've seen. So it's interesting.
The fourteens have the most potential,but they also have the tougher matchups.
Morehead State's gonna make things interesting forIllinois. Morehead States problem is they
turn the ball over a lot.Illinois doesn't force any turnovers, and Morehead
State. I think it's going tofrustrate Illinois, and I think Illinois is
gonna win, but I still thinkit'll be closer than you think. Oakland
(18:00):
just talk about if Kentucky plays nodefense, that one's gonna be like ninety
nine ninety one, Creighton and Akron. If Creighton's cold, Akron plays pretty
good defense. It's not as goodas an Acro team as it was last
year, but like, that'll beinteresting. And then Baylor Colgate. One
of these years, Colgate's gonna playlike the team that they were during the
regular season. Baylor, I don'tthink is a good matchup for them.
So like, it's a really goodgroup of four teams, but I don't
(18:22):
know if any of them are gonnawin because we got a really, really,
really good group of threes. Yeah, we do. Some of the
division or conference winners. Excuse me, uh, they're in Ducane, Yale
UAB. How do you kind ofhandle conference winners? N T State also
a good example of this, ateam that didn't really they didn't know if
they were gonna get into the tournament. It was gonna be tough for them.
(18:44):
They end up just winning the wholething and beating North Carolina in the
ACC championship game. How do youkind of handle conference winners? I know,
it's not always a guarantee that theycontinue to play that well heading into
the tournament. They just went ina deep run in their conference tournament,
so not to say they have anyfatigue, but it's it takes a lot
to keep that level of play up. How do you handle conference tournament winners?
You know, it's funny. Wealways used to make fun of and
(19:07):
we always used to comment on Xavierwhen they were in the A ten and
they had David West. Yeah,I think it's David West. You know,
when they had their really good teams, they lost really early in the
A ten and we always used tosay, boy that that was never good.
But then they always showed up inthe in the nc DOUBLEA tournament.
And so when you look at ateam like NC State who won five games
(19:27):
and five days, like, whatare the what kind of practice are they
going to have this week? Youknow, their game is on the twenty
first, so they have one lessday to prepare, one less day to
rest. So I almost wonder ifNC State's out of gas by like the
second half, because you can playon emotion every single night when your NCAA
tournament lives are on the line,But once you make the NCAA tournament,
(19:49):
do you still have that same fire? Are you still hot? There is
the case of point where you couldthink like, hey, NC State's gonna
win and keep winning because they playedreally well. Or there's the thing that
like their tank is on e andthey're just done and they're gonna lose and
they're gonna be happy they made itand they're gonna be happy. They're gonna
look back at that five games offive days thing, but like they just
might not have any energy. SoI'll be looking at that. You know,
(20:11):
Ducane getting a BYU team that's veryphysical, that wants to play a
little bit. You know, now, they're in the Big twelve. They're
very physical, so that's not agood matchup for Ducane, who was a
good basketball team, but not agreat one. I was surprised they got
an eleven. I thought maybe they'dget a twelve or thirteen or something like
that, but there were so manyupsets behind them that kind of pushed them
up on the seed line. Thingsgot kind of crazy last year for the
(20:33):
NCAA Tournament. Not a lot ofone seeds moved on. It was chaotic.
We saw I think five seeds,nine seeds. How crazy or not
crazy? Do you think this yearis going to get? Is their potential
for any of the lower seeds orthe middle seeds to make a run here
kind of like what happened last year. So I think, you know,
Saint Mary's, we talked about them. I think they're possible. I think
(20:56):
there's a chance that whoever wins atClemson New Mexico could go far. I
really like Clemson. I like theirguard play. I like, even though
he left my score, Joe Girard, I like what he does. He
shoots it really well. PJ.Hall is a really good player inside for
Clemson. Brad Brownell as a decentcoach. He's a guy I want to
back. And then there's New Mexico, who is so chaotic, like they
(21:18):
could go to the final four orthey could lose in the first round.
That's just kind of the way theyplay. They've got really good guard play.
But once again, it's a MountWest team and they made a run
in the Mount West tournament, playeda bunch of games in a row,
so you wonder where their energy's at. I feel like that game, whoever
wins that game, could potentially beatBaylor and certainly beat Arizona. So I
think that one's the one to watch. Now. The question is, I
(21:40):
don't know who's gonna win. Igot to dive into the matchup a little
bit more, but Clemson New Mexico, that winner could certainly make a run.
Who's your final four? So Ihave I have Yukon, I have
Houston, I have Creighton, andI have uh who did I pick in
this one? Oh? Yeah,I have Mary's as my as my Yeah,
(22:03):
I'm really I'm really shocked by thatthat I kind of landed on that
with Saint Mary's. But yeah,I think, like you mentioned that,
the road map is kind of therefor them yeah, and I think their
style will frustrate Alabama if they getthere, or Charleston, and I think
they'll frustrate North Carolina. And thenyou know, once they get to that
Arizona game potentially, or whoever comesout of that bottom group, whether it's
Clemson or New Mexico. I justthink that they've got a great bracket to
(22:26):
line up and frustrate the heck outof everybody that they play there. Yeah,
it's gonna be really interesting. Sothat's your final four, eventual champion,
do you have. I'm assuming it'sjust Yukon. Yeah, it's Yukon.
I mean I'm not I'm not gonnasit here and try and explain,
you know, somebody else. Look, an injury could happen, a cold
night shooting could happen. But like, I just don't see if Yukon's fully
(22:49):
focused, which they should be.It's the NCAA tournament. They're just there's
nobody who can beat them, No, nobody at all. I truly believe
that it's really you're right thing forthem. If they go cold or whatever,
so be it. But that teamis it just seems like a machine.
Danny Hurley has done an excellent job. So I I think it's Yukon
(23:10):
as well. I want to moveon to actually because everybody's talking about the
NCAA Tournament, and I'm sure we'regonna bet the NCUBA Tournament. We're gonna
fill out all the brackets, butthat's not the only tournament that's around.
We of course have the n IT. What is betting the NIT like
for you? What? What aresome things you look for in the n
I T. Is betting on nI T profitable even though obviously not as
(23:30):
many eyeballs are kind of on thatproduct. Yeah, I think it is
profitable. I think first off,you have to read quotes from like the
coaches and the you know, thehead coach and some of the star players.
Are they happy to be there?If they're not happy to be there,
you'll see it. Like, youknow, Providence was you know,
Kim English came out and he hadsome very choice words for the committee.
(23:51):
They already said they're gonna hold outDevin Carter for the first game. Province
has Boston College. Do you knowhow excited Boston College will be to go
into Providence a team that they probablyhave and played very often? Like that's
The great thing about the NIT.You have Providence, Boston College, Virginia
Tech, Richmond, UCF against SouthFlorida. Butler and Minnesota are somewhat close
by for each other. Bradley andLoula Chicago used to play in the Missouri
(24:12):
Valley. So like there are intriguingmatchups. The one thing you have to
handicap here is motivation. These arenot December twelfth games where you would handicap
this thing one way. These areMarch nineteenth, March twentieth games, which
basically one team may not want tobe there. You know, is Seaton
Hall interested in playing in the Niitis Indiana State interested. I would think
Indiana State would be. You've gotthe interesting case of UNLV who has to
(24:36):
travel cross country to play Princeton.You know, this is UNLV interested in
flying this far as Princeton interested afterlosing in the first round of the Ivy
League tournament. So you really haveto look this first round at motivation and
then kind of decide who you thinkwants to be there, and more often
than not that's going to be thecase. And then once we have to
get to the second round, thenyou start handicapping the matchups because these teams
(24:59):
say, well, we won firstgame, let's just go and try and
win this whole thing. Any gamesthat kind of fit the bill there of
what you're saying, because I thinkthe Seaton Hall Saint Joe's one. Obviously
Saint Joe's local here. That's intriguing, honestly, And I think Saint Joe's
is a is a tough team.It's not my favorite team to watch.
I don't think they're, you know, all that great offensively. Sometimes they're
just skilled enough to find shots.But Saint Joe's is still kind of a
(25:22):
tough team. But what does fitthe bill there of what you're talking about?
Any any games that you've kind ofidentified. So I like Richmond.
I think Richmond will be that wantto be there more than Virginia Tech.
Castle Coliseum is a very tough placeto play. But I just I can't
imagine, and you know, rememberwe're starting to get around spring break a
little bit on certain campuses, soyou may not have that a great atmosphere
(25:45):
that you have for certain games.Richmond doesn't get to play Virginia Tech very
often. You know, Seth Greenbergnever wanted to play Richmond, never wanted
to play VCU. It's now MikeYoung and he still doesn't play a lot
of the state schools. So Ithink Richmond plus five and a half or
six, I think they're certainly wortha look here. And then I think,
you know, the interesting thing iswhen you kind of look at motivation,
like app State going to wake Forest. App State is a team that
(26:07):
rarely gets the chance to play wakeForest, and if wake Forest is not
one hundred percent focused, I sawthey had a couple of players now not
as meaningful players, but a coupleplayers enter the transfer portal already, So
maybe that kind of tells you somethingin terms of where the team's head's at.
I think Indiana State is gonna wantto be there. I think Indiana
State is highly motivated, especially sincethey kind of know their coaches leaving.
(26:29):
It looks like Josh Shurtz won't bethere at the end of the year.
And then, of course, inyour neck of the woods, the team
that I don't like, Villanova,they play VCU, and I think that's
an interesting matchup because you have aVCU team that I think will still be
motivated to go play Villanova, andI don't know if Villanova wants to be
in this thing. I don't knowwhat Kyle Neptune's huddles are like. I
don't know how much they've tuned himout. I think it's interesting that Tyler
(26:52):
Burton, the former Richmond Spider,is gonna play VCU once again, and
I think it's gonna be interesting.VCU's offense. I mean, you watch
that game on Sunday against Ducaine.It was horrendous and they still nearly won.
They don't play the Havoc style anymore, so, they don't press as
much as they used to. They'vegot guys who are really good Max Shuala,
Sean Bear Style, Jo Bamacial like. These are guys that have been
(27:14):
through the battles and things like that. They're veteran. I think VCU will
be very motivated to go to Villanova. If Villanova is not, VCU could
win this game out right, butthey could certainly cover if Villanov is not
at one hundred percent. Yeah,Villanov is just not shooting well, and
I think Villanov's very good defensively.I think, but that matchup kind of
bodes well for VCU. They VCU'soffense isn't the best they like to keep
(27:37):
it a little bit slow, theylike to play good defense. I think
this that game's going to be reallylow scoring. I haven't seen the total
to that yet, it's one thirtyand a half. I have a feeling
that one's going to be really lowscoring, that that could end in the
fifties for both teams. So yeah, I do think you're onto something.
Villanova. Last year they took onliberty and we're not. We're not in
that game at all, not reallymotivated. So I think that is something
(28:00):
It's going to be a little bittough for them. Last question on college
basketball, and then I do wantto ask a couple of major League Baseball
questions. But first last one forcollege basketball. Should they expand the tournament?
So the answer is no, Butfor me, the NCAA can expand
the tournament if they do one thing, and that is turned Dayton aka the
(28:22):
first four into a mid major bubbleversus Power five bubble. Let the sixteens
go in, let them enjoy theirgame against the ones. Like take the
sixteens out of Dayton and just makeDayton and the preseason, part of the
pre tournament, part of this justall bubble teams and make it mid major
bubbles. So at Indiana State versusVirginia, A you know, a Colorado
(28:44):
State versus a Pittsburgh, A SaintJohn's versus whoever, Like, have the
mid majors who nobody wants to see, you know, nobody admits to liking
play the Power five schools. Andthen that's the only way I want to
see this tournament expanded is if wedon't expand to the actual tournament, keep
that at sixty eight or keep itto sixty four, but let's expand the
(29:06):
pre part of it and get theright bubble teams in there and let them
play each other for the chance toget in. Yeah. I love that
idea because I still think with expansion, everybody's all the mid majors will win
too. The mid majors now willbe able to get in, I don't
think so. Like I think they'rethey're going to try and get every Big
East team they can in there,try and get every SEC team they can
in there, and they're still goingto take and take priority over the mid
(29:29):
major school So I like that ideaof you know, put the mid major
schools in the bubble with a majorschool and have them kind of duke it
out for some of these spots inthe NCAA tournament. So I really liked
that idea. That actually intrigues mea lot. I never really thought of
that. That's a good way toexpand, but want to move over to
baseball though you do a lot ofbaseball as well. I see a future
on the top of your page.How many futures do you have so far
(29:51):
for Julie, I think ten oreleven. I haven't even looked at the
win totals yet. I kind ofwait till the end of spring training because
you know, injuries and this sortof stuff that you know, the Garrett
Cole stuff is interesting and so like, there's still some free agents out there.
So I'm just doing mostly individual playerprops for now, and then I'll
do some of the wind totals oncespring training is over. So, is
there is there one that you do, like right now, off the top
(30:12):
of your head that you can thinkof from Major League Baseball? So I
think Tyler Glass now over ten anda half wins on Bette Rivers is the
way to go because he's on areally good team now and you know he's
going to have an opportunity. Look, he played for the Raise. Injuries
are a factor and a lot ofmy futures that I put in, I
have a lot of injury risks.I have a future on Royce Lewis,
(30:33):
I have a future on Luis Robert, I have a future in Treigue School.
Well, all these guys have injuryrisks that come with it. But
if Tyler Glass now pitches his thirtythirty three, thirty four to thirty five
starts for the Dodgers, I thinkhe's going to get eleven wins or more
so I jumped on that. Andthe funny thing is, I think on
DraftKings it was twelve and a half. So and this is the key where
(30:55):
you have to make sure to shoparound to different books because ten and a
half is a fantastic The juice wasonly minus one fourteen. So yeah,
Tyler Glass now over ten and ahalf wins. I think that's a really
good number to get on Bette Rivers. Yeah, And I think one thing
I'm struggling with this year is acouple of years ago, I had the
Phillies making a deep run. Ithought they could get to the World Series.
(31:15):
Last year, I love the Rangerscoming into the year, I thought
they could get to the World Series. They just had to get in and
I like the talent this year,I'm having kind of a hard time identifying
that team. I think maybe tome Seattle is one. But is there
a team that you're coming into thisseason kind of liking to make a run
somebody that's kind of off the board. I hate to stay off the board,
(31:37):
but not the usual, not theyou know, the Yankees or the
Dodgers. Is there a team thatyou think could could surprise this year?
I think it's Cleveland. You knowCleveland keeping well, I've class a I
think is the Yeah, yeah,yeah, Manual. You know, as
a Phillies fan, I wanted thePhillies to trade for him, and I
guess there are reports, but theywanted Crawford and I wouldn't have given up
(31:59):
Crawford either. But like, theGuardians have a great rotation. Now their
lineup is not great. That's kindof a scary thing, and they're gonna
play a lot of three to one, three two type of games. But
I think that rotation if it stayshealthy. Bieber looks good in spring so
far. McKenzie. You know,coming off the injury, it's a little
bit of a concern and some ofthe other guys in that rotation. If
they keep everybody together, I thinkthey can win that division. I think
(32:22):
they can win a round or twomaybe, so I think it's the Guardians,
but I also think, you know, somewhat cliche, but the Orioles,
I think last year used last yearas that getting their feet wet for
that first round. I think theygo a little bit further because that young
talent and there's still more to comeif Holiday starts the season up there.
I think the Orioles getting Corbyn Burns, that's so nice for their rotation.
(32:42):
So Oriols and Guardians are the twoteams that I think go a little further
than people think. I haven't heardthe Guardians yet. I really like that
now. I think you highlighted oneof the reservations I would have. It's
not a lot of pop in thatlineup, not really the best lineup,
but the pitching staff is great.So that's one. That's what I'm definitely
gonna look into more. I didn'treally think to look into Cleveland all that
much, but I'm very intrigued bythat and I'll go the opposite direction a
(33:06):
team. Maybe people are talking aboutthink highly of that. You just look
at and go, I don't getit. So I'm a little worried about
our pellies. Like I am alittle bit worried, you know. I
mean, I'm just saying, likeAaron Nola got paid, and Aaron Nola
drove me nuts went last year whenhe wasn't paid yet and was playing for
his contract. Now he got paid, And you know, I don't want
(33:28):
Taiwan Walker starting games. And look, I love Ranger. I think Rangers
arguably their second best pitcher. Likeif you take everything into account, obviously
Wheels is one, but like Rangerin big games, Ranger when you need
him shows up for the most part. I think that I can't say the
same for Aaron Nola. So Ithink Ranger's nice. And look, can
Sanchez take this step up? Andthen you look at this lineup. You
(33:49):
know, Harper's already got some backspasms. They've shown that they can go really
cold as a group. I stilldon't agree with Schwarber's the leadoff hitter.
I think it should be Turner orStott. I think those two guys.
I think you need speed at thetop and put you know, Schwarber at
four or five. And the thingthat annoys me the most real quick on
a quick tangent is the people whocite the lineup record with Schwarber as the
leadof hitters the reason why he shouldbe there. It's the same record as
(34:13):
you know so and so number twoand Harper number three, and you know,
go down the line, Like,Schwarber is not the only reason why
they had a really good record atleadoff. So I like Turner or stot
there, but like and then thebullpen kind of scares me a little bit.
So it could also be the Phillyand me who can't accept any sort
of success whatsoever. But like,I think the Phillies scare me a little
bit. No, I think you'reright because of the trajectory of what a
(34:37):
player, you know, how manyyears into a contract starts to go.
G t Romuto is going to declineat some point. I don't think Nick
Cassianos is going to decline at somepoint. Kyle Schwarber has at his two
best home run seasons with the Phillies. At some point that's not going to
happen. And I think you're right. I've actually been I've been very strong
on I kind of like Kyle Schworberin the lead off. He seems comfortable
there. I get it. ButI think this is the year that they
(35:00):
kind of have to change things upa little bit. There needs to be
an evolution with the lineup. Youcan't just continue to roll out the same
lineup that you have for the pasttwo years and think it's just going to
yield the same results. I thinkthings are going to change. This is
where the young guys are probably goingto be a little bit better. Bryce
Harpery still think it's going to begood trade turners. I think going to
be their best player this year.But this is the year that I'm kind
(35:20):
of worried about the guys that theysigned a few years ago. I'm worried
about schue Werber, I'm worried aboutCastianos, I'm worried about j tiro Muto.
I'm worried about the back end ofthe rotation. And also I don't
know what the bullpen's going to belike. They got a lot of quality
innings from arms that I didn't evenknow existed in Ryan Kirkering, and then
also quality from a guy like JeffHoffman who hasn't really been quality his entire
(35:42):
career and all of a sudden becomesthis really good relief pitcher. So yeah,
I kind of agree with you thatit is. We're in a weird
spot with the Phillies, I guess, right. And you know Topper who
doesn't really apologize for the Kimberl stufffrom last year, like he acknowledges that
he may have made a mistake,but he said like I would have done
it again. Like that's just alittle bit of a worry for me when
it comes to especially a bullpen wherethere are no defined roles, like there
(36:06):
is no defined closer. There isguys who will be eighth inning guys,
and then there's guys who will beseventh inning guys, and ideally guys who
will pitch in the ninth But likeTopper has shown at times that he makes
wrong decisions and he gets stubborn withcertain guys even when they're not pitching very
well. Yeah, I like topI think that's where also, I'm just
not sure of what it's going tobe like because you can't continue to raw
(36:28):
out the same lineup through the samethings you do year after year and they've
done two years of this. Ihave a feeling there needs to be an
evolution I just don't know what thatlooks like under Rob Thompson, or like
you just said, he does seempretty stubborn in keeping Kyle Shuver the lead
off in some of the bullpen decisionsthat he's made. Is he going to
be able to facilitate a kind ofdifferent lineup or an evolution for the Phillies
(36:50):
for the season. I don't know. I don't know the answer to that.
Again, I've liked everything I've seenso far from Rob Thompson. I
think he's been excellent as a clubhouseleader, and they've gotten to places the
past couple of years that have beenvery good. There is eventually going to
be a change, though, andsomething different that they need to do,
and I don't know what that lookslike for Rob Thompson. So yeah,
I like that, don't worry.I'm also a little bit concerned about the
(37:12):
Phillies. Matt. I'm again gladto talk to you again. It's been
a long time. I love talkingcollege basketball with you, even baseball too.
The baseball season's coming up, soexcited for that. But where can
everybody find your work and find whatyou do. Yeah, follow me on
Twitter at mid Major Matt, andhopefully you be writing some articles for ftmbets
dot com. That's where I domy stuff. Ye tracker. It's great.
(37:37):
Yeah, it's a very nice site. There's a lot of smart people
on that site. And I poston a bet tracker and you can find
my picks there on a day today basis. That's amazing FT and Betsy.
They have piled up a great rosterof talent, including yourself now,
so glad to see that. Also, very excited for strikeout props for the
Major League Baseball season. Really excited. But Matt, thanks for joining me.
(37:58):
Appreciate that, no problem, Thanksfor having me mid Major, Matt
for coming on the line. Change. I got a couple of bets for
you before I head out and endof another episode here on the line Change.
So a couple of n games fortomorrow that I like. I'm gonna
kind of piggyback off of what Mattsaid there. I like Richmond getting five
(38:19):
and a half against Virginia Tech.In state schools don't get to play a
lot because Virginia Tech doesn't want to. But I like the idea of Richmond
going in there kind of sticking itto them. I like Richmond getting the
five and a half. Also likeKansas State getting the points against Iowa.
I don't like this Iowa team atall. They're really good offensively, terrible
defensively. I'm not sure what theirmotivation is going to be. To me,
(38:39):
they weren't really all that good.I gonna like this Kansas State squad,
and I think they will take thistournament seriously. They're a tough team
and they have been all year.And if they're not great offensively, defensively
they're very very strong. But Ijust think they're gonna play that game very
tough. I think they're gonna bephysically a little bit too much for Iowa.
It's just gonna be Kansas State knockdownenough shots, create enough offense,
(39:00):
but against Iowa, everybody is ableto create offense against Iowa. So I
do like Kansas State as well.They're getting five and a half, so
I like that. So just acouple of plays for the nit as we
do head into as well the NCAATournament. For the NCAA Tournament, not
really sure about Howard and Wagner notgoing to bet that the interesting one more
(39:21):
is Colorado State Virginia, and asMatt mentioned, Colorado State and the Mountain
West have really struggled in the NCAATournament, so as Virginia. Honestly,
this Virginia team has been ugly towatch. I hate them more and more
as they watch them. I don'tthink it's not only just not esthetically pleasing,
it just doesn't work. They're abad free throw shooting team that is
(39:43):
in low scoring games. It playsgreat defense, but not good enough.
They're One way to generate offense wouldbe free throw shooting, get easy points
when you can, but they can'teven do that. There is no easy
way to get points for that Virginiaoffense. Colorado State isn't the best.
I'd like Colorado State laying the twoand a half against Virginia, so I'll
(40:04):
take the favorite there Again, HowardWagner have no play in that one real
quick. Didn't get to talk aboutthe Oscars here on the line change.
We did a huge Oscars preview,but they got it all right. I'd
like mostly that Oppenheimer was able toclean the awards. Really happy that poor
things had a great showing. Poorthings are great showing for a lot of
this secondary awards a costume design andset design. They really cleaned up there,
(40:29):
and I thought they did that rightbecause that, to me was one
of the best looking movies, oneof the more original sort of styles,
and the way that they set youknow, the set design and the makeup,
it was great. So I'm gladthat they were able to clean up
some awards there. I do wantto mention one movie that is going to
be out that is out I thinkright now. I'm going to check it
(40:52):
out soon. Want to check itout soon, hopefully I get there,
but pay attention to Love Lies Bleedingstarring Kristen Stewart. It looks gory,
it looks very it looks great,grimy, it's it looks awesome. So
that's one if you haven't checked itout yet. Want to check something out
in theaters this week? To me, the movie to do it with is
(41:13):
Love Lives Pleading, and hope hopefullyI will be able to watch that movie
before we record the next line change, which is going to be on Thursday
or come out on Thursday, Sohopefully I will have watched that movie by
then, maybe have a little bitof a review for you. But that
is it for the line change.Thanks again to me Major Matt for joining
me. Always love talking college basketballwith him, so follow him at mid
(41:36):
Major Matt for college basketball and baseballas well. We'll have more tournament bets.
We'll have more on the NCAA tournamentall on the next line change.
Again, make sure to follow usand subscribe Fox Sports The Gambler. Go
on the Apple podcast. There you'llbe able to find the line change,
rate review, subscribe, search upthe line Change with John Jansen. You
should be able to see it,and once you do, please please subscribe,
(42:00):
rate review. Everything you can totry and help build the podcast up
would be very, very greatly appreciated. That is it for the line Change.
We'll be back for more on TheGambler.
It's another episode of the Line ChangeFox Sports The Gambler. Well you're back.
Took a week off because Sean Bracehad to take a vacation, so
I'd to be Sean Brace for aweek. Line Change is back at it.
Wherever you get your podcasts, whetherthat is the Apple Store or wherever
you go for your podcast also Spotifyand their YouTube channel. Subscribe Fox Sports
(00:21):
The Gambler. My name is JohnJansen. Follow me at Jay Jansen thirty
four. One of my favorite gueststhat I used to bring in the Line
Change all the time to talk somefootball, college basketball mostly. I mean,
his name is mid major Matt fora reason because well he nails mid
major college basketball and all college basketball. It is Matt Joseph's Matt. It
has been a while, it is. It's good to talk college basketball if
(00:43):
you again, Oh yeah today,I don't think there was a lot of
productivity around the country. Everybody fillingout brackets, n brackets, CBI brackets,
all that fun stuff. How manybrackets do you fill out? Uh,
I'll do three. Maybe I'm notin as many pools as I used
to be. I'll do one thatI fill out, like right after the
show and then I'll do one afterthinking a bunch, and then maybe like
one really close to the start,just in case something changes. Yeah.
(01:07):
Mine, I end up just fillingout brackets whenever I have time, So
I end up with at least maybeseven or eight. Not all of them
are in polls, but I justlike filling them out. I just like
to do chaotic ones, ones whereyou know, I just go with something
different. I don't know. It'sfun to fill out a bracket, but
it's also fun to bet on itas well, and I think that's starting
to take take priority now is morebetting. But I'm gonna start off right
(01:30):
away with the tournament. Usually itis, it's a lot of underdogs we
asked for what's the upsets? Ijust want to ask about Yukon. I
think I'm most fascinated coming into thistournament is how locked in Yukon is as
the number one team and how muchbetter they seem than ver everyone else.
So I ask that, I mean, how much better are they than everyone
(01:51):
else? And should we be lockingthem in for the most part as the
team to win it all? Onour brackets? Yeah, I think Yukon's
the best team in the country.I think it's pretty healthy margin before number
two comes along, and that's probablyHouston, I would say, as the
second best team. But I mean, Yukon's just deep. They've got a
great coach, they've been they havenot fallen prey to the whole like,
hey, we won last year,let's play a little lase fair. In
(02:14):
the second year they played that,they're arguably even better this year, it
feels like at times. And yeah, their bracket's a little tough. Auburn
will be interesting if they get therefor the Sweet sixteen, and then of
course, you know they may seesomebody good in the Elite eight, whether
it's Illinois or Iowa State. Butlike, nobody really scares me because they're
on the half of the bracket wherethe final four. I think there's gonna
be chaos in North Carolina's region.And then if they play Houston the championship
(02:38):
game, Like, Houston's defense isreally good, but I don't think their
offense can keep up with Yukon.How did that happen with Yukon, Because
I mean, I look at thatroster, it's not full of a bunch
of NBA talent. Usually some ofthe one done guys like, you know,
we've seen Anthony Davis Carey team,but even just locally the Villanova teams.
I mean, we found out there'sa bunch of NBA players on that
team, and it was really goodback in twenty eighteen. But this this
(03:00):
is different. I don't know,it just it feels like this team is
a machine. Why is that whathappened with Yukon for the past couple of
seasons that has made them sort ofthis juggernaut all the while not I think
having It's not to say they don'thave talent. It's not overwhelming talent.
It's just they're well coached, theyplay well, everything works together. How
did that all kind of come togetherfor Danny Hurley? I mean, I
(03:21):
think you look, they brought backa lot of the talent. Tristan Newton
came back, Alex Caraban came back, donov and Klingen came back. They
were good, but they weren't goodenough for the minute for the NBA.
And then you bring in a freshmanlike Stefan Castle, and then you addvocate
like Cam Spencer who was pretty goodat Rutgers and now has taken in another
level. I think that's kind ofhow how you have to be in college
basketball nowadays? You have to havethe right returnees, you sprinkle in some
(03:44):
freshmen, and you sprinkle in theright transfers. And I think that's how
you make a roster. And that'sexactly what U constune this year. How
strongly will this program be moving forward? I mean, is Danny Hurley building
kind of a dynasty here? Dynasty? They have to still win this tour
and they have to do a lotof things to be that. But is
that kind of what we're on thecusp of with Yukon? I would think
(04:06):
so. I mean, I'm notfamiliar with what their NIL stuff is,
but I imagine they probably have areally good NIL program. And I would
yeah, I would imagine that thisis a team that's gonna be up there
for a while now. If youlook, you know, Tristan Newton's probably
gonna be gone. It's funny becauseyou look at the guys who are seniors,
but are they really seniors because we'restill dealing with the Covid year stuff.
You know, Donovid klingon how muchlonger is he gonna be there?
(04:27):
Caravan? Is he coming back?Cam Spencer's a senior so like they you
know, is Castle going to comeback? So I think there's a you
know, some question marks for thisroster. But if you're Danny Hurley and
you come into a kid's living room, like you're gonna he's gonna get some
good recruits and he's gonna get theright transfers. So I think that they
this is a very important offseason becausethey're gonna have some holes to fill.
But yeah, if he does theright job, then like, yes,
(04:48):
this is gonna be a team that'sgona be around for quite a while.
Can he take the mantle now asthe best coach in college basketball? I
mean that's a that's a good question. You know. Look, I think
he's up there. I think CalvinSampson's up there. I think Bruce Pearl
is up there. I think,you know, there's a couple of guys
who are on the cusp of beingthe best. You know, if he
(05:08):
could do the back to back thing, you'd have to say yes. But
until he does the back to backthing, I think he's you know,
top five. Ish Calipari's up there, even though you know Kentucky's had their
issues the last couple of years.I would say he's definitely top five,
and if he wins the back toback, then yeah, he's probably the
best. Since you mentioned Kentucky,I'll go that route. They've been one
of the teams that I think I'veseen a lot of betters kind of gravitate
(05:29):
towards that can win the national championship. You know, they had a little
bit longer odds. I know they'vegotten shorter as the season has gone along,
but Kentucky seems to be loved andit's it's odd to me because usually
that's not the kind of team wego for. They're not good defensively.
They're a really good offensive team,but we know sometimes it doesn't play well
in the tournament. Your thoughts onKentucky and why did everybody during the season
(05:51):
kind of fall in love with thisteam as a potential contender. Kentucky is
a team that I do have.I don't remember when I put it down.
I put a couple down in Kentuckyto win at all when they were
like twenty to one or something.You know, it's not one of my
favorite futures, but you kind ofas the season goes along, you take
some you know, speculative chances andthings like that. But Kentucky's offense is
(06:12):
as good as anybody else's in thecountry. And when Kentucky's on, they
could beat almost anybody else in thecountry. And as you just mentioned,
though, the defense is the problem. You know, you look at some
of these games where they lose.You give up ninety seven, the Texas
A and M, you give upyou know nine, They beat Vanderbilt ninety
three to seventy seven. You know, giving up seventy seven points. The
Vanderbilt is still a lot. Theninety one eighty nine game at Mississippi State.
(06:32):
These are not exactly world class offenses. So the problem will come in
the tournament when they face an offensewho can keep up and then Kentucky goes
cold and they don't play defense,and they're not hitting their shots and they
can't rely on getting a stop.And you know, I think it'll be
interesting because Oakland's offense isn't terrible.Now, I'm not saying that the Golden
Grizzlies are going to win. Ido like what Greg Camp He's done in
(06:54):
Oakland, but like you know,this will be a higher scoring game,
and if Kentucky does have a littlebit of a lull. It could be
a little bit of a close game. Now, the problem is if Kentucky
comes out firing and they you know, they're making everything, this game will
be not even close. But theWildcats are gonna be that team. I
think that you're gonna either put toofar in your bracket or not far enough.
So Kentucky one of the teams Iknow everybody's falling in love with and
(07:16):
one team that nobody trusts Purdue.Is this is this the year they are
well equipped enough to avoid a letdownearly in the early rounds? And is
this a team that can finally makea run after being good for what the
last few years? And number oneseed again? Are they are they better
equipped this year to make a runof the tour? So I think Purdue
(07:38):
is an interesting story because they couldbe on the UVA redemption arc where UVA
loses to UNBC and wins the championshipthe next year. And if you remember
in that next year when UVA wasa one seed or when they were a
higher seed, they were down tothe lower seed in that first half,
and everybody's wondering, well, waita second, is it really in their
head? So like Purdue's gonna haveto deal with the fact that their one
(07:58):
sixteen game will be one of themost watched of all the one sixteens because
they lost to US sixteen last year. So I wonder how Purdue's gonna handle
that. I'm not a Matt Painterguy. I think Matt Painter is a
little bit of the issue with regardsto Purdue. I mean, look,
you got Zach Edy in a way. You should just throw it up to
Zach Edy every time if there wasa way, and you could probably win
a lot of basketball games, andthey feel like at times they get away
(08:20):
from that. You know. Ithink Purdue's got an interesting bracket. You
know, Kansas with mccullar and Dickinson'sstatus being a little questionable if they play
Kansas as a different team. CanZaga I think is pretty good this year.
And then you look at that bottomwhen you look at Creyton. I
think Crayton could beat anybody. They'rea three point shooting team. And the
great thing about a three point shootingteam is if they're hot, they could
beat anybody. The problem is ifthey're cold, they could lose to anybody.
(08:43):
So I think Purdue can win acouple of games. But how are
they going to handle the focus thatthey're going to need for that one to
sixteen that a North Carolina's not gonnaneed that, A Houston's not gonna need
that, A Connecticut's not gonna need. They're just going to dispatch their six
teams pretty quickly. How will Purduehandle the extra attention? Yeah, it's
it's gonna be interesting early on.They just see how they handle that pressure.
(09:03):
I mean, it's been three straightyears now that they've had early exits,
and that's that has to be ontheir mind. And you mentioned sort
of the rest of that. Thatregion Crighton's the one that interests me the
most. Tennessee though. Tennessee haslooked good at times, very good at
times this season. I thought theywere in line to get a number one
seed. They end up not doingwell in the SEC tournament and they end
(09:24):
up falling out and getting a numbertwo seed. But is Tennessee how strong
are they in your opinion? Ormaybe not at all? In this region.
I don't like Tennessee. I've neverbeen a Rick Barnes guy, you
know, go back to his timein Texas. Look at what the Tennessee
has done in March. Rick Barnesis the type of guy like when it
comes to March madness, I wantto back up coaches and players. That's
(09:46):
why I like it. Danny Hurley, That's why I like it. Calvin
Sampson, That's why I like someof the other coaches that you know,
we may talk about. Rick Barnesis not a guy I want to back.
Now. I think they're gonna beatSaint Peter's. Of course, last
year we said, you know,I think Purdue's gonna beat Saint Peter's.
And then I think that you lookat that next game against Texas or Colorado
State or UVA, like that's gonnabe an interesting game for Tennessee. And
(10:07):
then you know, once again,they might see Crayton, and this Tennessee
team's a little bit better equipped offensively, but like you know, Creyton could
shoot them out of the gym rathereasily. So I don't want to trust
Tennessee. My futures money's not goingon Tennessee because I just don't like Rick
Barnes. When you saw the bracketfilled out and revealed on Selection Sunday,
was there a team that you sawthe roadmap four and went okay, because
(10:30):
I think we were waiting for alot of that. There's not a team
only Yukon, really Houston that arevery good, we know are gonna make
deep runs, not really matchup dependent, especially Yukon, so we know them,
but there were some other teams becausethe year was kind of weird.
Where you go, okay, wherecan we find maybe a good region or
a good path to get to aSweet sixteen a Final four? Do you
think was there a team that kindof everything fell into place and you identified
(10:54):
and go okay, that team certainlycan make a run here. So as
a fan of gat Zaga, Ihate to say this, but I think
things line up decently for Saint Mary's. You know, that Grand Canyon game
is going to be really tough,but I think that Randy Bennett is a
guy I don't like, as youknow, as a Gonzaga guy, but
like Randy Bennett's a pretty good coach. And you know, obviously what Grand
Canyon has done is tremendous and it'sgoing to be an interesting game. But
(11:16):
I think Saint Mary's playing Alabama mostlikely in that second round. Like Saint
Mary's style is going to frustrate thecrap out of Alabama. Like it's just
gonna be one of those things whereAlabama wants to run, run, run,
run run, and Saint Mary's justgonna be like, no, we
are not running. We're going toplay this game at our half core pace.
We're gonna make you work on defenseand everything. And I think that's
the right type of thing when you'relooking at the gals. And then look
(11:39):
if Saint Mary's plays in North Carolina, same thing. North Carolina wants to
run, you know, Saint Mary'sdoesn't want to run. And remember last
year Saint Mary's played nor Yukon prettywell, was even beating them until they
had an injury in that game andthen things went to hell. But like
I think, I think Saint Mary'shas a nice little path and could be
that sleeper team if you want tofind somebody ouse the ones, the twos,
(12:01):
the threes to make a final fourrun. I was really surprised that
I kind of landed on the samething when I'm filling out the bracket,
just kind of the first initial reactionsand just kind of clicking and seeing how
things kind of fall into place.I was really shocked that Saint Mary's to
me, I think I had themgoing to like a final four. I
really liked how kind of that thatregion falls for Saint Mary's. But then
(12:22):
I also have been seeing a lotof Grand Canyon love. Tell me about
this Grand Canyon team and this matchupin particular. We do like five twelve
matchups, We like those for upsets. But why maybe is Grand Canyon for
you? And again you did mentionit was a tough matchup, not an
easy one. But what is thismatchup like for Saint Mary's in the first
round, because I think a lotof people identify that as the twelve seed
to potentially get the upset. Imean, you know, Grand Canyon is
(12:46):
a team coached by Bryce Drew whowent twenty nine and four. Now,
one of the things I always liketo do when you look at some of
these twelves and these thirteen so thateverybody's like, oh, they're gonna beat
somebody. Oh they're gonna do this, Like you kind of have to look
at their non conference schedule and seebecause if they you know, they beat
a bunch of nobodies and they lostto the tough teams on their schedule,
like that's going to kind of downgradeyou a little bit. And you look
at Grand Canyon. They lost byseven in a neutral court game against South
(13:09):
Carolina, and I would say theirbest win is San Francisco. They did
beat San Diego State at home,but that was a home game, and
so San Diego State's not going tohave to play a home game and Grand
Kenyon is not going to play ahome game. But you look at this
Lopes team. They play really gooddefense. They're tenth in the country in
two point percentage. They want togo a little quicker, so I think
it'll be a style contrast here.Who's going to want to go? And
(13:31):
you rarely see Saint Mary's run.You just look at the possession numbers for
Saint Mary's so far this season.They rarely go seventy possessions. They've gone
seventy possessions or more twice the firstgame against somebody named Cal Saint Stanislass and
then they went in double overtime againstUNLV and that was a seventy seven possession
game in double overtime. So nobody'sbeen able to make this Saint Mary's team
(13:54):
run. And I think Grand Canyoncould struggle a little bit in a half
court and we'll see. It'll bea tight game, but I think Saint
Mary's gets the win there. Yeah, twelve seeds usually are the upset that
people are looking at the most.It's happened in almost every tournament for the
last I think I just saw thatstat. It's the last thirty two of
the last thirty eight tournaments, andtwelve is beat to five. What's one
(14:16):
for you? Most qualifies for thatas a twelve to be to five.
So it's it's an easy answer forme because I've covered this team all season
here in Virginia. It's James Madison. When I you know, I just
mentioned the non conferencing Jamu's first gameof the year way back in the first
Monday of the year, they wentto Michigan State and won. Now,
granted, the Michigan State's not whatthey used to be, but like we
didn't know that at the time.We expected a great Michigan State team and
(14:37):
JAMU went there in overtime and beatthem. And then ever since that day,
they've gotten more attention from everybody.They've gotten a lot more focused.
The stat was every road game inthe Sun Belt they had the most attendance.
Now, granted, it's the sunBelt. But like everybody wanted a
piece of James Madison. It's funnybecause when you watch the selection show and
they had Wisconsin up there and theyrevealed the opponent, Wisconsin didn't look thrilled
(15:01):
to see James Madison there. SoJAMU will not be intimidated. JMU shoots
threes really well. Wisconsin doesn't defendthe three point line well. JMU has
the size to match up with Wisconsin. And remember this is a Wisconsin team
the beginning of February that lost toRutgers, that lost to Michigan. Like,
I'm not scared of a Badger's teamwho might not have made the tournament
or might have been a little bitlower seed if they didn't go on the
big ten tournament run that they did. So I'm gonna get to the first
(15:24):
four games. Usually we do seeat least, you know, either the
eleven in this case this year it'sthe ten seeds. We do kind of
see at least one of these teamsend up making some sort of run.
I know, Colorado to me,I like Colorado. I do think they
win that matchup against Boise State.And then we got Virginia and Colorado State,
(15:45):
any of the play in teams,the first four teams that you like
or could potentially win a couple ofgames here in the tournament. Well,
I'm not going to the Virginia routeagain. I've lost way too much with
Virginia. I mean I've covered themas well and talked about them. I
mean, they're one of the worstfree throw shooting team in America, and
if they make their free throws,they probably have a couple more wins and
their seed is a whole lot better. They're aesthetically unpleasing. You know,
(16:07):
you watch them play basketball. It'shalf the possession. You don't know what
they're doing exactly. You're right,you can't. You can't figure them out.
Here's the thing, though, I'manti Mountain West until they do something.
You know, the last two years, outside of San Diego State run,
the Mountain West has gone over.They've lost to all the game all
the other games pretty much. Soto me, you're looking at Colorado State,
who thinks they were underseated and mayhave been underseated, But to me,
(16:30):
that was the one thing the committeegot right. Like, I understand
everybody's unhappy the mount West teams areunderseeded well win some games show us that
this conference is more than just beatingeach other up. So I think Colorado
State maybe wins that game. It'salmost weird. It's like Virginia, who
doesn't win games in the first roundlately, against Colorado State from the Mountain
West, who also doesn't win alot of games lately. So it's two
teams that are trying to change thepedigree of either their conference or their program
(16:55):
and Colorado. Does that mean you'vekind of favored them in that one?
Yeah? I think so. Onceagain, it's kind of one of these
things where like I'm fading the MountainWest until they show me something, and
Colorado shoots the three really well andthey play some good defense. So yeah,
I do lean Colorado in this situationbecause I just I can't. Until
the Mountain West wins more games,I can't back them. We've been seeing
(17:17):
it more and more every year.Lower seeds, the lowest seeds end up
actually being competitive. Sometimes they've stolensome wins. We've seen fifteen seeds win,
We've seen sixteen seed wins. Howwhat's the lowest seed you have that
could potentially win that you think,Okay, here's a fifteen seed out like
a sixteen seed. Not to saythey will, but is there potential for
(17:38):
any of that this year from thematchups that you've seen. So it's interesting.
The fourteens have the most potential,but they also have the tougher matchups.
Morehead State's gonna make things interesting forIllinois. Morehead States problem is they
turn the ball over a lot.Illinois doesn't force any turnovers, and Morehead
State. I think it's going tofrustrate Illinois, and I think Illinois is
gonna win, but I still thinkit'll be closer than you think. Oakland
(18:00):
just talk about if Kentucky plays nodefense, that one's gonna be like ninety
nine ninety one, Creighton and Akron. If Creighton's cold, Akron plays pretty
good defense. It's not as goodas an Acro team as it was last
year, but like, that'll beinteresting. And then Baylor Colgate. One
of these years, Colgate's gonna playlike the team that they were during the
regular season. Baylor, I don'tthink is a good matchup for them.
So like, it's a really goodgroup of four teams, but I don't
(18:22):
know if any of them are gonnawin because we got a really, really,
really good group of threes. Yeah, we do. Some of the
division or conference winners. Excuse me, uh, they're in Ducane, Yale
UAB. How do you kind ofhandle conference winners? N T State also
a good example of this, ateam that didn't really they didn't know if
they were gonna get into the tournament. It was gonna be tough for them.
(18:44):
They end up just winning the wholething and beating North Carolina in the
ACC championship game. How do youkind of handle conference winners? I know,
it's not always a guarantee that theycontinue to play that well heading into
the tournament. They just went ina deep run in their conference tournament,
so not to say they have anyfatigue, but it's it takes a lot
to keep that level of play up. How do you handle conference tournament winners?
You know, it's funny. Wealways used to make fun of and
(19:07):
we always used to comment on Xavierwhen they were in the A ten and
they had David West. Yeah,I think it's David West. You know,
when they had their really good teams, they lost really early in the
A ten and we always used tosay, boy that that was never good.
But then they always showed up inthe in the nc DOUBLEA tournament.
And so when you look at ateam like NC State who won five games
(19:27):
and five days, like, whatare the what kind of practice are they
going to have this week? Youknow, their game is on the twenty
first, so they have one lessday to prepare, one less day to
rest. So I almost wonder ifNC State's out of gas by like the
second half, because you can playon emotion every single night when your NCAA
tournament lives are on the line,But once you make the NCAA tournament,
(19:49):
do you still have that same fire? Are you still hot? There is
the case of point where you couldthink like, hey, NC State's gonna
win and keep winning because they playedreally well. Or there's the thing that
like their tank is on e andthey're just done and they're gonna lose and
they're gonna be happy they made itand they're gonna be happy. They're gonna
look back at that five games offive days thing, but like they just
might not have any energy. SoI'll be looking at that. You know,
(20:11):
Ducane getting a BYU team that's veryphysical, that wants to play a
little bit. You know, now, they're in the Big twelve. They're
very physical, so that's not agood matchup for Ducane, who was a
good basketball team, but not agreat one. I was surprised they got
an eleven. I thought maybe they'dget a twelve or thirteen or something like
that, but there were so manyupsets behind them that kind of pushed them
up on the seed line. Thingsgot kind of crazy last year for the
(20:33):
NCAA Tournament. Not a lot ofone seeds moved on. It was chaotic.
We saw I think five seeds,nine seeds. How crazy or not
crazy? Do you think this yearis going to get? Is their potential
for any of the lower seeds orthe middle seeds to make a run here
kind of like what happened last year. So I think, you know,
Saint Mary's, we talked about them. I think they're possible. I think
(20:56):
there's a chance that whoever wins atClemson New Mexico could go far. I
really like Clemson. I like theirguard play. I like, even though
he left my score, Joe Girard, I like what he does. He
shoots it really well. PJ.Hall is a really good player inside for
Clemson. Brad Brownell as a decentcoach. He's a guy I want to
back. And then there's New Mexico, who is so chaotic, like they
(21:18):
could go to the final four orthey could lose in the first round.
That's just kind of the way theyplay. They've got really good guard play.
But once again, it's a MountWest team and they made a run
in the Mount West tournament, playeda bunch of games in a row,
so you wonder where their energy's at. I feel like that game, whoever
wins that game, could potentially beatBaylor and certainly beat Arizona. So I
think that one's the one to watch. Now. The question is, I
(21:40):
don't know who's gonna win. Igot to dive into the matchup a little
bit more, but Clemson New Mexico, that winner could certainly make a run.
Who's your final four? So Ihave I have Yukon, I have
Houston, I have Creighton, andI have uh who did I pick in
this one? Oh? Yeah,I have Mary's as my as my Yeah,
(22:03):
I'm really I'm really shocked by thatthat I kind of landed on that
with Saint Mary's. But yeah,I think, like you mentioned that,
the road map is kind of therefor them yeah, and I think their
style will frustrate Alabama if they getthere, or Charleston, and I think
they'll frustrate North Carolina. And thenyou know, once they get to that
Arizona game potentially, or whoever comesout of that bottom group, whether it's
Clemson or New Mexico. I justthink that they've got a great bracket to
(22:26):
line up and frustrate the heck outof everybody that they play there. Yeah,
it's gonna be really interesting. Sothat's your final four, eventual champion,
do you have. I'm assuming it'sjust Yukon. Yeah, it's Yukon.
I mean I'm not I'm not gonnasit here and try and explain,
you know, somebody else. Look, an injury could happen, a cold
night shooting could happen. But like, I just don't see if Yukon's fully
(22:49):
focused, which they should be.It's the NCAA tournament. They're just there's
nobody who can beat them, No, nobody at all. I truly believe
that it's really you're right thing forthem. If they go cold or whatever,
so be it. But that teamis it just seems like a machine.
Danny Hurley has done an excellent job. So I I think it's Yukon
(23:10):
as well. I want to moveon to actually because everybody's talking about the
NCAA Tournament, and I'm sure we'regonna bet the NCUBA Tournament. We're gonna
fill out all the brackets, butthat's not the only tournament that's around.
We of course have the n IT. What is betting the NIT like
for you? What? What aresome things you look for in the n
I T. Is betting on nI T profitable even though obviously not as
(23:30):
many eyeballs are kind of on thatproduct. Yeah, I think it is
profitable. I think first off,you have to read quotes from like the
coaches and the you know, thehead coach and some of the star players.
Are they happy to be there?If they're not happy to be there,
you'll see it. Like, youknow, Providence was you know,
Kim English came out and he hadsome very choice words for the committee.
(23:51):
They already said they're gonna hold outDevin Carter for the first game. Province
has Boston College. Do you knowhow excited Boston College will be to go
into Providence a team that they probablyhave and played very often? Like that's
The great thing about the NIT.You have Providence, Boston College, Virginia
Tech, Richmond, UCF against SouthFlorida. Butler and Minnesota are somewhat close
by for each other. Bradley andLoula Chicago used to play in the Missouri
(24:12):
Valley. So like there are intriguingmatchups. The one thing you have to
handicap here is motivation. These arenot December twelfth games where you would handicap
this thing one way. These areMarch nineteenth, March twentieth games, which
basically one team may not want tobe there. You know, is Seaton
Hall interested in playing in the Niitis Indiana State interested. I would think
Indiana State would be. You've gotthe interesting case of UNLV who has to
(24:36):
travel cross country to play Princeton.You know, this is UNLV interested in
flying this far as Princeton interested afterlosing in the first round of the Ivy
League tournament. So you really haveto look this first round at motivation and
then kind of decide who you thinkwants to be there, and more often
than not that's going to be thecase. And then once we have to
get to the second round, thenyou start handicapping the matchups because these teams
(24:59):
say, well, we won firstgame, let's just go and try and
win this whole thing. Any gamesthat kind of fit the bill there of
what you're saying, because I thinkthe Seaton Hall Saint Joe's one. Obviously
Saint Joe's local here. That's intriguing, honestly, And I think Saint Joe's
is a is a tough team.It's not my favorite team to watch.
I don't think they're, you know, all that great offensively. Sometimes they're
just skilled enough to find shots.But Saint Joe's is still kind of a
(25:22):
tough team. But what does fitthe bill there of what you're talking about?
Any any games that you've kind ofidentified. So I like Richmond.
I think Richmond will be that wantto be there more than Virginia Tech.
Castle Coliseum is a very tough placeto play. But I just I can't
imagine, and you know, rememberwe're starting to get around spring break a
little bit on certain campuses, soyou may not have that a great atmosphere
(25:45):
that you have for certain games.Richmond doesn't get to play Virginia Tech very
often. You know, Seth Greenbergnever wanted to play Richmond, never wanted
to play VCU. It's now MikeYoung and he still doesn't play a lot
of the state schools. So Ithink Richmond plus five and a half or
six, I think they're certainly wortha look here. And then I think,
you know, the interesting thing iswhen you kind of look at motivation,
like app State going to wake Forest. App State is a team that
(26:07):
rarely gets the chance to play wakeForest, and if wake Forest is not
one hundred percent focused, I sawthey had a couple of players now not
as meaningful players, but a coupleplayers enter the transfer portal already, So
maybe that kind of tells you somethingin terms of where the team's head's at.
I think Indiana State is gonna wantto be there. I think Indiana
State is highly motivated, especially sincethey kind of know their coaches leaving.
(26:29):
It looks like Josh Shurtz won't bethere at the end of the year.
And then, of course, inyour neck of the woods, the team
that I don't like, Villanova,they play VCU, and I think that's
an interesting matchup because you have aVCU team that I think will still be
motivated to go play Villanova, andI don't know if Villanova wants to be
in this thing. I don't knowwhat Kyle Neptune's huddles are like. I
don't know how much they've tuned himout. I think it's interesting that Tyler
(26:52):
Burton, the former Richmond Spider,is gonna play VCU once again, and
I think it's gonna be interesting.VCU's offense. I mean, you watch
that game on Sunday against Ducaine.It was horrendous and they still nearly won.
They don't play the Havoc style anymore, so, they don't press as
much as they used to. They'vegot guys who are really good Max Shuala,
Sean Bear Style, Jo Bamacial like. These are guys that have been
(27:14):
through the battles and things like that. They're veteran. I think VCU will
be very motivated to go to Villanova. If Villanova is not, VCU could
win this game out right, butthey could certainly cover if Villanov is not
at one hundred percent. Yeah,Villanov is just not shooting well, and
I think Villanov's very good defensively.I think, but that matchup kind of
bodes well for VCU. They VCU'soffense isn't the best they like to keep
(27:37):
it a little bit slow, theylike to play good defense. I think
this that game's going to be reallylow scoring. I haven't seen the total
to that yet, it's one thirtyand a half. I have a feeling
that one's going to be really lowscoring, that that could end in the
fifties for both teams. So yeah, I do think you're onto something.
Villanova. Last year they took onliberty and we're not. We're not in
that game at all, not reallymotivated. So I think that is something
(28:00):
It's going to be a little bittough for them. Last question on college
basketball, and then I do wantto ask a couple of major League Baseball
questions. But first last one forcollege basketball. Should they expand the tournament?
So the answer is no, Butfor me, the NCAA can expand
the tournament if they do one thing, and that is turned Dayton aka the
(28:22):
first four into a mid major bubbleversus Power five bubble. Let the sixteens
go in, let them enjoy theirgame against the ones. Like take the
sixteens out of Dayton and just makeDayton and the preseason, part of the
pre tournament, part of this justall bubble teams and make it mid major
bubbles. So at Indiana State versusVirginia, A you know, a Colorado
(28:44):
State versus a Pittsburgh, A SaintJohn's versus whoever, Like, have the
mid majors who nobody wants to see, you know, nobody admits to liking
play the Power five schools. Andthen that's the only way I want to
see this tournament expanded is if wedon't expand to the actual tournament, keep
that at sixty eight or keep itto sixty four, but let's expand the
(29:06):
pre part of it and get theright bubble teams in there and let them
play each other for the chance toget in. Yeah. I love that
idea because I still think with expansion, everybody's all the mid majors will win
too. The mid majors now willbe able to get in, I don't
think so. Like I think they'rethey're going to try and get every Big
East team they can in there,try and get every SEC team they can
in there, and they're still goingto take and take priority over the mid
(29:29):
major school So I like that ideaof you know, put the mid major
schools in the bubble with a majorschool and have them kind of duke it
out for some of these spots inthe NCAA tournament. So I really liked
that idea. That actually intrigues mea lot. I never really thought of
that. That's a good way toexpand, but want to move over to
baseball though you do a lot ofbaseball as well. I see a future
on the top of your page.How many futures do you have so far
(29:51):
for Julie, I think ten oreleven. I haven't even looked at the
win totals yet. I kind ofwait till the end of spring training because
you know, injuries and this sortof stuff that you know, the Garrett
Cole stuff is interesting and so like, there's still some free agents out there.
So I'm just doing mostly individual playerprops for now, and then I'll
do some of the wind totals oncespring training is over. So, is
there is there one that you do, like right now, off the top
(30:12):
of your head that you can thinkof from Major League Baseball? So I
think Tyler Glass now over ten anda half wins on Bette Rivers is the
way to go because he's on areally good team now and you know he's
going to have an opportunity. Look, he played for the Raise. Injuries
are a factor and a lot ofmy futures that I put in, I
have a lot of injury risks.I have a future on Royce Lewis,
(30:33):
I have a future on Luis Robert, I have a future in Treigue School.
Well, all these guys have injuryrisks that come with it. But
if Tyler Glass now pitches his thirtythirty three, thirty four to thirty five
starts for the Dodgers, I thinkhe's going to get eleven wins or more
so I jumped on that. Andthe funny thing is, I think on
DraftKings it was twelve and a half. So and this is the key where
(30:55):
you have to make sure to shoparound to different books because ten and a
half is a fantastic The juice wasonly minus one fourteen. So yeah,
Tyler Glass now over ten and ahalf wins. I think that's a really
good number to get on Bette Rivers. Yeah, And I think one thing
I'm struggling with this year is acouple of years ago, I had the
Phillies making a deep run. Ithought they could get to the World Series.
(31:15):
Last year, I love the Rangerscoming into the year, I thought
they could get to the World Series. They just had to get in and
I like the talent this year,I'm having kind of a hard time identifying
that team. I think maybe tome Seattle is one. But is there
a team that you're coming into thisseason kind of liking to make a run
somebody that's kind of off the board. I hate to stay off the board,
(31:37):
but not the usual, not theyou know, the Yankees or the
Dodgers. Is there a team thatyou think could could surprise this year?
I think it's Cleveland. You knowCleveland keeping well, I've class a I
think is the Yeah, yeah,yeah, Manual. You know, as
a Phillies fan, I wanted thePhillies to trade for him, and I
guess there are reports, but theywanted Crawford and I wouldn't have given up
(31:59):
Crawford either. But like, theGuardians have a great rotation. Now their
lineup is not great. That's kindof a scary thing, and they're gonna
play a lot of three to one, three two type of games. But
I think that rotation if it stayshealthy. Bieber looks good in spring so
far. McKenzie. You know,coming off the injury, it's a little
bit of a concern and some ofthe other guys in that rotation. If
they keep everybody together, I thinkthey can win that division. I think
(32:22):
they can win a round or twomaybe, so I think it's the Guardians,
but I also think, you know, somewhat cliche, but the Orioles,
I think last year used last yearas that getting their feet wet for
that first round. I think theygo a little bit further because that young
talent and there's still more to comeif Holiday starts the season up there.
I think the Orioles getting Corbyn Burns, that's so nice for their rotation.
(32:42):
So Oriols and Guardians are the twoteams that I think go a little further
than people think. I haven't heardthe Guardians yet. I really like that
now. I think you highlighted oneof the reservations I would have. It's
not a lot of pop in thatlineup, not really the best lineup,
but the pitching staff is great.So that's one. That's what I'm definitely
gonna look into more. I didn'treally think to look into Cleveland all that
much, but I'm very intrigued bythat and I'll go the opposite direction a
(33:06):
team. Maybe people are talking aboutthink highly of that. You just look
at and go, I don't getit. So I'm a little worried about
our pellies. Like I am alittle bit worried, you know. I
mean, I'm just saying, likeAaron Nola got paid, and Aaron Nola
drove me nuts went last year whenhe wasn't paid yet and was playing for
his contract. Now he got paid, And you know, I don't want
(33:28):
Taiwan Walker starting games. And look, I love Ranger. I think Rangers
arguably their second best pitcher. Likeif you take everything into account, obviously
Wheels is one, but like Rangerin big games, Ranger when you need
him shows up for the most part. I think that I can't say the
same for Aaron Nola. So Ithink Ranger's nice. And look, can
Sanchez take this step up? Andthen you look at this lineup. You
(33:49):
know, Harper's already got some backspasms. They've shown that they can go really
cold as a group. I stilldon't agree with Schwarber's the leadoff hitter.
I think it should be Turner orStott. I think those two guys.
I think you need speed at thetop and put you know, Schwarber at
four or five. And the thingthat annoys me the most real quick on
a quick tangent is the people whocite the lineup record with Schwarber as the
leadof hitters the reason why he shouldbe there. It's the same record as
(34:13):
you know so and so number twoand Harper number three, and you know,
go down the line, Like,Schwarber is not the only reason why
they had a really good record atleadoff. So I like Turner or stot
there, but like and then thebullpen kind of scares me a little bit.
So it could also be the Phillyand me who can't accept any sort
of success whatsoever. But like,I think the Phillies scare me a little
bit. No, I think you'reright because of the trajectory of what a
(34:37):
player, you know, how manyyears into a contract starts to go.
G t Romuto is going to declineat some point. I don't think Nick
Cassianos is going to decline at somepoint. Kyle Schwarber has at his two
best home run seasons with the Phillies. At some point that's not going to
happen. And I think you're right. I've actually been I've been very strong
on I kind of like Kyle Schworberin the lead off. He seems comfortable
there. I get it. ButI think this is the year that they
(35:00):
kind of have to change things upa little bit. There needs to be
an evolution with the lineup. Youcan't just continue to roll out the same
lineup that you have for the pasttwo years and think it's just going to
yield the same results. I thinkthings are going to change. This is
where the young guys are probably goingto be a little bit better. Bryce
Harpery still think it's going to begood trade turners. I think going to
be their best player this year.But this is the year that I'm kind
(35:20):
of worried about the guys that theysigned a few years ago. I'm worried
about schue Werber, I'm worried aboutCastianos, I'm worried about j tiro Muto.
I'm worried about the back end ofthe rotation. And also I don't
know what the bullpen's going to belike. They got a lot of quality
innings from arms that I didn't evenknow existed in Ryan Kirkering, and then
also quality from a guy like JeffHoffman who hasn't really been quality his entire
(35:42):
career and all of a sudden becomesthis really good relief pitcher. So yeah,
I kind of agree with you thatit is. We're in a weird
spot with the Phillies, I guess, right. And you know Topper who
doesn't really apologize for the Kimberl stufffrom last year, like he acknowledges that
he may have made a mistake,but he said like I would have done
it again. Like that's just alittle bit of a worry for me when
it comes to especially a bullpen wherethere are no defined roles, like there
(36:06):
is no defined closer. There isguys who will be eighth inning guys,
and then there's guys who will beseventh inning guys, and ideally guys who
will pitch in the ninth But likeTopper has shown at times that he makes
wrong decisions and he gets stubborn withcertain guys even when they're not pitching very
well. Yeah, I like topI think that's where also, I'm just
not sure of what it's going tobe like because you can't continue to raw
(36:28):
out the same lineup through the samethings you do year after year and they've
done two years of this. Ihave a feeling there needs to be an
evolution I just don't know what thatlooks like under Rob Thompson, or like
you just said, he does seempretty stubborn in keeping Kyle Shuver the lead
off in some of the bullpen decisionsthat he's made. Is he going to
be able to facilitate a kind ofdifferent lineup or an evolution for the Phillies
(36:50):
for the season. I don't know. I don't know the answer to that.
Again, I've liked everything I've seenso far from Rob Thompson. I
think he's been excellent as a clubhouseleader, and they've gotten to places the
past couple of years that have beenvery good. There is eventually going to
be a change, though, andsomething different that they need to do,
and I don't know what that lookslike for Rob Thompson. So yeah,
I like that, don't worry.I'm also a little bit concerned about the
(37:12):
Phillies. Matt. I'm again gladto talk to you again. It's been
a long time. I love talkingcollege basketball with you, even baseball too.
The baseball season's coming up, soexcited for that. But where can
everybody find your work and find whatyou do. Yeah, follow me on
Twitter at mid Major Matt, andhopefully you be writing some articles for ftmbets
dot com. That's where I domy stuff. Ye tracker. It's great.
(37:37):
Yeah, it's a very nice site. There's a lot of smart people
on that site. And I poston a bet tracker and you can find
my picks there on a day today basis. That's amazing FT and Betsy.
They have piled up a great rosterof talent, including yourself now,
so glad to see that. Also, very excited for strikeout props for the
Major League Baseball season. Really excited. But Matt, thanks for joining me.
(37:58):
Appreciate that, no problem, Thanksfor having me mid Major, Matt
for coming on the line. Change. I got a couple of bets for
you before I head out and endof another episode here on the line Change.
So a couple of n games fortomorrow that I like. I'm gonna
kind of piggyback off of what Mattsaid there. I like Richmond getting five
(38:19):
and a half against Virginia Tech.In state schools don't get to play a
lot because Virginia Tech doesn't want to. But I like the idea of Richmond
going in there kind of sticking itto them. I like Richmond getting the
five and a half. Also likeKansas State getting the points against Iowa.
I don't like this Iowa team atall. They're really good offensively, terrible
defensively. I'm not sure what theirmotivation is going to be. To me,
(38:39):
they weren't really all that good.I gonna like this Kansas State squad,
and I think they will take thistournament seriously. They're a tough team
and they have been all year.And if they're not great offensively, defensively
they're very very strong. But Ijust think they're gonna play that game very
tough. I think they're gonna bephysically a little bit too much for Iowa.
It's just gonna be Kansas State knockdownenough shots, create enough offense,
(39:00):
but against Iowa, everybody is ableto create offense against Iowa. So I
do like Kansas State as well.They're getting five and a half, so
I like that. So just acouple of plays for the nit as we
do head into as well the NCAATournament. For the NCAA Tournament, not
really sure about Howard and Wagner notgoing to bet that the interesting one more
(39:21):
is Colorado State Virginia, and asMatt mentioned, Colorado State and the Mountain
West have really struggled in the NCAATournament, so as Virginia. Honestly,
this Virginia team has been ugly towatch. I hate them more and more
as they watch them. I don'tthink it's not only just not esthetically pleasing,
it just doesn't work. They're abad free throw shooting team that is
(39:43):
in low scoring games. It playsgreat defense, but not good enough.
They're One way to generate offense wouldbe free throw shooting, get easy points
when you can, but they can'teven do that. There is no easy
way to get points for that Virginiaoffense. Colorado State isn't the best.
I'd like Colorado State laying the twoand a half against Virginia, so I'll
(40:04):
take the favorite there Again, HowardWagner have no play in that one real
quick. Didn't get to talk aboutthe Oscars here on the line change.
We did a huge Oscars preview,but they got it all right. I'd
like mostly that Oppenheimer was able toclean the awards. Really happy that poor
things had a great showing. Poorthings are great showing for a lot of
this secondary awards a costume design andset design. They really cleaned up there,
(40:29):
and I thought they did that rightbecause that, to me was one
of the best looking movies, oneof the more original sort of styles,
and the way that they set youknow, the set design and the makeup,
it was great. So I'm gladthat they were able to clean up
some awards there. I do wantto mention one movie that is going to
be out that is out I thinkright now. I'm going to check it
(40:52):
out soon. Want to check itout soon, hopefully I get there,
but pay attention to Love Lies Bleedingstarring Kristen Stewart. It looks gory,
it looks very it looks great,grimy, it's it looks awesome. So
that's one if you haven't checked itout yet. Want to check something out
in theaters this week? To me, the movie to do it with is
(41:13):
Love Lives Pleading, and hope hopefullyI will be able to watch that movie
before we record the next line change, which is going to be on Thursday
or come out on Thursday, Sohopefully I will have watched that movie by
then, maybe have a little bitof a review for you. But that
is it for the line change.Thanks again to me Major Matt for joining
me. Always love talking college basketballwith him, so follow him at mid
(41:36):
Major Matt for college basketball and baseballas well. We'll have more tournament bets.
We'll have more on the NCAA tournamentall on the next line change.
Again, make sure to follow usand subscribe Fox Sports The Gambler. Go
on the Apple podcast. There you'llbe able to find the line change,
rate review, subscribe, search upthe line Change with John Jansen. You
should be able to see it,and once you do, please please subscribe,
(42:00):
rate review. Everything you can totry and help build the podcast up
would be very, very greatly appreciated. That is it for the line Change.
We'll be back for more on TheGambler.
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