October 14, 2025 • 11 mins
Market and Air Travel Analyst Jay Ratliff joins the show to address growing rumors of a looming market crash and what’s really driving investor anxiety. He also breaks down how the ongoing government shutdown is affecting airports, flights, and traveler safety across the U.S.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now let's come to the hotline and bring in our
market and aviation analyst, Jay Ratliff. You can find him
online at Daytrade Fun dot com. That's Daytrade fun dot com. Jay.
It's been interesting few days for the markets. You had
the threat of more tariffs on China Friday that sent
the markets tanking, a bounce back yesterday on news that
(00:22):
well maybe Trump wasn't quite going to do what he
had threatened to do the other day. What do you
make of some of the turbulence that we've seen.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
I'd say turbulence is right and break out the drama, mean,
because it's like somebody that's, you know, trying to learn
how to drive a clutch and get thrown into the
dash and you're thrown them back into your seat. And
that's kind of how Wall Street and investors have been
doing the last few days. And you know, everything's kind
of writing itself as we progress, and you know, the
track record is that these things tend to work out.
We all remember the overreaction that we had many many
(00:51):
months ago when the tariff you know, first you know,
eight peas the pass with everybody panicking that the world
was you and obviously that was an overreaction, But that
doesn't mean we're still not going to see some market
minor fluctuations back and forth when they're concerned or released
based on what is perceived from some of the different
(01:12):
pieces of communication that come from the president or from others.
And you know, I'm pretty well centered based thinking that
they're going to get things worked out because it's kind
of for their best interests. They're not exactly firing on
all cylinders at this point in time, and they need
the world and the last thing that you see them
doing probably is trying to alienate a good portion of it.
(01:34):
And I honestly think that the you know, commer heads
are going to prevail here as we've moved forwards, and
I think that the market's starting to settle in with that.
And that's not to say that we're not going to
see these guy rations back and forth, that some of
the different things, you know, come to light. But I'm
not worried that they won't get a deal done. It's
just hopefully we want to too many of these turbulent
(01:55):
events as you called them, between now and then, and.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
I wonder how much of these fluctuatings are also investors
essentially communicating with the president because they know when there
is a big downturn in the market over something that
he's announced, that there's a chance that he might adjust
his his thinking a little bit or his policy.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Well, it would be an excellent points if you can
communicate to the president in that kind of way, because
you know, President Trump always very very quick to take
credit when the market threaping all time hives would would
lead me to believe that he would also have to
take the blame. It's thinks down, but not in his
still not necessarily. I don't think he would rush to
(02:36):
the microphone to make that particular a comment. But you've
got to own it both ways. And certainly you want
you want to calm hand and even keel approach from
the leader of our country. As I mean, can you
imagine if the Fed chair acted in the way that
President Trump has been doing, I mean, it would everything
would be a mess. And you know, Jerome pal for
(02:57):
all the people that had issues with him one way
or another, to remain a firm fan of his, because
I think that he has weathered the storm and he
has done exactly as he needs to do. And of
course right now I think people are starting to get
the idea that instead of two more interest rate touch
this year, we're looking at one. Probably is where things
(03:17):
are going to be going at this point in time,
and I think that that reality is setting in and
causing the markets good just a slight bit. And some
of these are the concerns that we're talking about. But
I would love to think that the President could cone
things down, but he's not done it in all these years,
and I think none of us really expecting to change,
although it would be it would be be nice to
see him do it.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
We're joined now by our market analyst, Jay Ratliff. Let
me ask you about what CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin
and JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond said recently. Both
of them indicated that they think that a market correction
could be coming. Do you view predictions like that the
same way.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
Well, I think that they're based in in data. I mean,
when you look at the price earnings ratio and you
you a factor for inflation going back. I think this
is the second biggest gap, if you will, between the
two that we've seen in the last one hundred and
fifty years or so and the thought being that you know,
markets go through natural course corrections, and the thought is,
(04:19):
you know, if it's they said that it's two months
or two years, we're headed in that direction. And certainly
I think that that's that's a logical position to take,
because the market never goes up and up and up
and up. There's always a droppters of recovery, you know,
those types of things. We go through that on a
regular basis, and it's been a while since we've seen
one that's not been driven by a you know, an
(04:41):
event of some time, and that's kind of insulated investors
to thinking that it's not going to happen. So that's
one of the reasons that I really questioned a lot
of people that I talk through that are rushing into
this market where a lot of these docks are incredibly priced,
some of them at all time high jumping into these
things instead of doing what Warren Buffett does, and that
is pick your favorite stocks, pick a very nice sale
(05:03):
price you'd like to buy a mapp and sit back
and wait so that when the market does adjust itself
to one extent or another, you're in a position free
of emotion. You got your checklists ready as those stocks
drop into place you buy the share, so you buy
them at a twenty twenty five, twenty three percent discount,
whatever it happens to be, and it's free of emotion.
And emotion is the one thing that just tears people
(05:24):
apart because as the market starts to dip, instead of
people saying, hey, there might could be a buying opportunity here,
people are panicking and selling it all time lows, only
to see the market later respond. So the idea now
is just have that game plan, because I do think
the market's going to be looking at something like that
in the somewhat near future. That doesn't mean it's going
to crash. It doesn't mean anything's going to happen. It's
(05:45):
certainly going to give some political fodder if something happens
between now and next year's elected. But the bottom line
is as an investor, you could do what the successful
people do, and that is prepared for it, anticipating it's
going to happen, and going from there. But remember, Jamie
down and others have talked about for a number of
years that this type of event was not imminent. Very
(06:09):
close in year after year after year of the year
it failed to happen. But I really think when you
look at the data, that we're certainly closer to that
than we've ever been. And I wouldn't be surprised, I
wouldn't be panicked to see it happen.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
Aviation analyst Jay Ratliff, So, Jay, I want to talk
about how the government shut down is impacting air travel.
Last week, we had air traffic controllers calling out sick
and impacted a number of big airports, huge staffing shortages
to the point where they didn't have anybody in the
air traffic control tower at certain points. What have we
seen in recent days. Has that trend continued?
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Well, it's pretty much. I don't want to use some
business as usual because that's not a complete and accurate
character as they can. But you know, Ryan, one of
the things I look at is, Okay, I see all
the headlines. Let me look at how many flights directfully
like hanfled or delayed in a given day. And you
look at Friday, and we had a thirty seven hundred
(07:05):
plates in the United States domestic flights that were delayed.
According to the tracking data that we have, we're averaging
over forty one hundred today. So you can actually say
that in some regards things are better now than they
have been historically this year, but obviously we have many
of the air traffic control centers that are still seeing
the staffing issues that are taking place. And sadly, what
(07:28):
we have now is the fact that we have today
it being the day that the aircraftic controllers are going
to be getting a partial paycheck, and then two weeks
from today on the twenty eighth, no paycheck. So the
longer this goes, the more they're going to be under pressure.
And a lot of those individuals have secondary jobs they
fall back on. So we're continuing to see a growing
(07:49):
number of air traffic controllers that are calling in sick now.
Leadership the dot you've got some transportation secretary and others
all but threatening these individuals to report to work. But look,
the bottom line is, if they've got a way to
make money and they've got sick time build up, you
can see that. You know why some people would end
up doing that. I totally understand. If they've got to
(08:09):
put food on the table and pay bills, they've got
to do what they've got to do to keep that
money coming in versus waiting four or five six weeks
or whatever it's going to be before some of these
funds are going to end up being paid to them.
So I think that we're going to still the isolated
incidents Ryan, But across the boards, if we go another week,
week and a half, I don't think we're going to
see measurable issues. But I can tell you this, if
(08:32):
we go into two weeks into three and we start
approaching the Thanksgiving week, all best are off at that
point in time, which is obviously one of the driving
pressure points here that we've got to get this result
and soon. We don't want to get anywhere near Thanksgiving
travel week with the issues that we have right now.
Speaker 1 (08:48):
We're joined by our air travel analyst, Jay Ratliff. These
threats that we're hearing from the Transportation Secretary that he
might fire those who are calling out sick air traffic controllers.
Is that something that he can really do given the
shortage of air traffic controllers that we already have aside
(09:10):
from what we're experiencing now during this government shutdown. I
know a lot of people look back to what then
President Ronald Reagan did, but it also took a while
to get things back to where they needed to be
in the aftermath of that that mass firing, and again
we're already dealing with a shortage as it is.
Speaker 2 (09:31):
Well, when you've got thousands of air traffic controller shortages
and you've got a shortage of instructors that you can,
you know, throw into the pipeline to try to build
things back up quickly, the last thing that you would
want to do would be to fire any qualified air
traffic controller at this point. And I understand that you
want all hands on deck, and I understand the frustration
(09:52):
when you have people that know that you know your
short staff at your facility, but you're going to call
in stick and leave the others that are there even
more shorthanded. But you know, it comes down to family
or the people I work with who's going to get
the priority. And typically the family's gonna went out every
single time. I would be stocked to see and disappointed
(10:13):
to see if they ended up acting on any of
those things, because then you've got to determine subjectively what
is an okay time to call off and what is not?
What do you have a doctor's note, what do you
have you know, how sick do you have to be?
It's so incredibly subjective that it I think would be
just a nightmare. So I'm I don't want to call
them idle threat because this is not the administration to
(10:34):
use that com with, but I would say that it
would be highly unlikely, given everything that we are facing
right now, for them to kick a bunch of them
right out the door just to try to make a point,
to try to get others to go up and do
their job.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
Our market and air travel analyst Jay Ratliffe with us
this morning. You can find them online at Daytrade fund
dot com. Again, that's Daytradefun dot com.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Jay.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
Always appreciate time and insight. We'll talk to you next week.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Wow, my pleasure.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
The Ryan Gorman Show five to nine every weekday morning
on news radio w f L A
Now let's come to the hotline and bring in our
market and aviation analyst, Jay Ratliff. You can find him
online at Daytrade Fun dot com. That's Daytrade fun dot com. Jay.
It's been interesting few days for the markets. You had
the threat of more tariffs on China Friday that sent
the markets tanking, a bounce back yesterday on news that
(00:22):
well maybe Trump wasn't quite going to do what he
had threatened to do the other day. What do you
make of some of the turbulence that we've seen.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
I'd say turbulence is right and break out the drama, mean,
because it's like somebody that's, you know, trying to learn
how to drive a clutch and get thrown into the
dash and you're thrown them back into your seat. And
that's kind of how Wall Street and investors have been
doing the last few days. And you know, everything's kind
of writing itself as we progress, and you know, the
track record is that these things tend to work out.
We all remember the overreaction that we had many many
(00:51):
months ago when the tariff you know, first you know,
eight peas the pass with everybody panicking that the world
was you and obviously that was an overreaction, But that
doesn't mean we're still not going to see some market
minor fluctuations back and forth when they're concerned or released
based on what is perceived from some of the different
(01:12):
pieces of communication that come from the president or from others.
And you know, I'm pretty well centered based thinking that
they're going to get things worked out because it's kind
of for their best interests. They're not exactly firing on
all cylinders at this point in time, and they need
the world and the last thing that you see them
doing probably is trying to alienate a good portion of it.
(01:34):
And I honestly think that the you know, commer heads
are going to prevail here as we've moved forwards, and
I think that the market's starting to settle in with that.
And that's not to say that we're not going to
see these guy rations back and forth, that some of
the different things, you know, come to light. But I'm
not worried that they won't get a deal done. It's
just hopefully we want to too many of these turbulent
(01:55):
events as you called them, between now and then, and.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
I wonder how much of these fluctuatings are also investors
essentially communicating with the president because they know when there
is a big downturn in the market over something that
he's announced, that there's a chance that he might adjust
his his thinking a little bit or his policy.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Well, it would be an excellent points if you can
communicate to the president in that kind of way, because
you know, President Trump always very very quick to take
credit when the market threaping all time hives would would
lead me to believe that he would also have to
take the blame. It's thinks down, but not in his
still not necessarily. I don't think he would rush to
(02:36):
the microphone to make that particular a comment. But you've
got to own it both ways. And certainly you want
you want to calm hand and even keel approach from
the leader of our country. As I mean, can you
imagine if the Fed chair acted in the way that
President Trump has been doing, I mean, it would everything
would be a mess. And you know, Jerome pal for
(02:57):
all the people that had issues with him one way
or another, to remain a firm fan of his, because
I think that he has weathered the storm and he
has done exactly as he needs to do. And of
course right now I think people are starting to get
the idea that instead of two more interest rate touch
this year, we're looking at one. Probably is where things
(03:17):
are going to be going at this point in time,
and I think that that reality is setting in and
causing the markets good just a slight bit. And some
of these are the concerns that we're talking about. But
I would love to think that the President could cone
things down, but he's not done it in all these years,
and I think none of us really expecting to change,
although it would be it would be be nice to
see him do it.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
We're joined now by our market analyst, Jay Ratliff. Let
me ask you about what CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin
and JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond said recently. Both
of them indicated that they think that a market correction
could be coming. Do you view predictions like that the
same way.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
Well, I think that they're based in in data. I mean,
when you look at the price earnings ratio and you
you a factor for inflation going back. I think this
is the second biggest gap, if you will, between the
two that we've seen in the last one hundred and
fifty years or so and the thought being that you know,
markets go through natural course corrections, and the thought is,
(04:19):
you know, if it's they said that it's two months
or two years, we're headed in that direction. And certainly
I think that that's that's a logical position to take,
because the market never goes up and up and up
and up. There's always a droppters of recovery, you know,
those types of things. We go through that on a
regular basis, and it's been a while since we've seen
one that's not been driven by a you know, an
(04:41):
event of some time, and that's kind of insulated investors
to thinking that it's not going to happen. So that's
one of the reasons that I really questioned a lot
of people that I talk through that are rushing into
this market where a lot of these docks are incredibly priced,
some of them at all time high jumping into these
things instead of doing what Warren Buffett does, and that
is pick your favorite stocks, pick a very nice sale
(05:03):
price you'd like to buy a mapp and sit back
and wait so that when the market does adjust itself
to one extent or another, you're in a position free
of emotion. You got your checklists ready as those stocks
drop into place you buy the share, so you buy
them at a twenty twenty five, twenty three percent discount,
whatever it happens to be, and it's free of emotion.
And emotion is the one thing that just tears people
(05:24):
apart because as the market starts to dip, instead of
people saying, hey, there might could be a buying opportunity here,
people are panicking and selling it all time lows, only
to see the market later respond. So the idea now
is just have that game plan, because I do think
the market's going to be looking at something like that
in the somewhat near future. That doesn't mean it's going
to crash. It doesn't mean anything's going to happen. It's
(05:45):
certainly going to give some political fodder if something happens
between now and next year's elected. But the bottom line
is as an investor, you could do what the successful
people do, and that is prepared for it, anticipating it's
going to happen, and going from there. But remember, Jamie
down and others have talked about for a number of
years that this type of event was not imminent. Very
(06:09):
close in year after year after year of the year
it failed to happen. But I really think when you
look at the data, that we're certainly closer to that
than we've ever been. And I wouldn't be surprised, I
wouldn't be panicked to see it happen.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
Aviation analyst Jay Ratliff, So, Jay, I want to talk
about how the government shut down is impacting air travel.
Last week, we had air traffic controllers calling out sick
and impacted a number of big airports, huge staffing shortages
to the point where they didn't have anybody in the
air traffic control tower at certain points. What have we
seen in recent days. Has that trend continued?
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Well, it's pretty much. I don't want to use some
business as usual because that's not a complete and accurate
character as they can. But you know, Ryan, one of
the things I look at is, Okay, I see all
the headlines. Let me look at how many flights directfully
like hanfled or delayed in a given day. And you
look at Friday, and we had a thirty seven hundred
(07:05):
plates in the United States domestic flights that were delayed.
According to the tracking data that we have, we're averaging
over forty one hundred today. So you can actually say
that in some regards things are better now than they
have been historically this year, but obviously we have many
of the air traffic control centers that are still seeing
the staffing issues that are taking place. And sadly, what
(07:28):
we have now is the fact that we have today
it being the day that the aircraftic controllers are going
to be getting a partial paycheck, and then two weeks
from today on the twenty eighth, no paycheck. So the
longer this goes, the more they're going to be under pressure.
And a lot of those individuals have secondary jobs they
fall back on. So we're continuing to see a growing
(07:49):
number of air traffic controllers that are calling in sick now.
Leadership the dot you've got some transportation secretary and others
all but threatening these individuals to report to work. But look,
the bottom line is, if they've got a way to
make money and they've got sick time build up, you
can see that. You know why some people would end
up doing that. I totally understand. If they've got to
(08:09):
put food on the table and pay bills, they've got
to do what they've got to do to keep that
money coming in versus waiting four or five six weeks
or whatever it's going to be before some of these
funds are going to end up being paid to them.
So I think that we're going to still the isolated
incidents Ryan, But across the boards, if we go another week,
week and a half, I don't think we're going to
see measurable issues. But I can tell you this, if
(08:32):
we go into two weeks into three and we start
approaching the Thanksgiving week, all best are off at that
point in time, which is obviously one of the driving
pressure points here that we've got to get this result
and soon. We don't want to get anywhere near Thanksgiving
travel week with the issues that we have right now.
Speaker 1 (08:48):
We're joined by our air travel analyst, Jay Ratliff. These
threats that we're hearing from the Transportation Secretary that he
might fire those who are calling out sick air traffic controllers.
Is that something that he can really do given the
shortage of air traffic controllers that we already have aside
(09:10):
from what we're experiencing now during this government shutdown. I
know a lot of people look back to what then
President Ronald Reagan did, but it also took a while
to get things back to where they needed to be
in the aftermath of that that mass firing, and again
we're already dealing with a shortage as it is.
Speaker 2 (09:31):
Well, when you've got thousands of air traffic controller shortages
and you've got a shortage of instructors that you can,
you know, throw into the pipeline to try to build
things back up quickly, the last thing that you would
want to do would be to fire any qualified air
traffic controller at this point. And I understand that you
want all hands on deck, and I understand the frustration
(09:52):
when you have people that know that you know your
short staff at your facility, but you're going to call
in stick and leave the others that are there even
more shorthanded. But you know, it comes down to family
or the people I work with who's going to get
the priority. And typically the family's gonna went out every
single time. I would be stocked to see and disappointed
(10:13):
to see if they ended up acting on any of
those things, because then you've got to determine subjectively what
is an okay time to call off and what is not?
What do you have a doctor's note, what do you
have you know, how sick do you have to be?
It's so incredibly subjective that it I think would be
just a nightmare. So I'm I don't want to call
them idle threat because this is not the administration to
(10:34):
use that com with, but I would say that it
would be highly unlikely, given everything that we are facing
right now, for them to kick a bunch of them
right out the door just to try to make a point,
to try to get others to go up and do
their job.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
Our market and air travel analyst Jay Ratliffe with us
this morning. You can find them online at Daytrade fund
dot com. Again, that's Daytradefun dot com.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Jay.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
Always appreciate time and insight. We'll talk to you next week.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Wow, my pleasure.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
The Ryan Gorman Show five to nine every weekday morning
on news radio w f L A
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