December 2, 2025 • 8 mins
Market & Air Travel Analyst Jay Ratliff explains why Thanksgiving air travel became a nightmare and explains TSA's new $45 no-REAL ID fee.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's go to the hotline and bring in our aviation analyst,
Jay Ratlift. Jay, thanks so much for joining us this morning.
And you know, the government shutdown ended, and we thought
crisis was averted for the Thanksgiving holiday, especially when it
comes to air travel, and it certainly would have been
a lot worse if that shutdown had continued. But wasn't
(00:20):
all that great for a lot of travelers across the country.
What happened.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Well, keep in mind you and I've discussed many times,
ran during the before the shutdown took place, we were
averaging about lessen just under four thousand flight delays to day.
That was because we have a shorted of air traffic controllers,
so that's the bar, that's the norm as we have
it right now. So when we looked at Friday's number
(00:44):
of delays, we hit five thousand, which was manageable. It
was just a little bit more than usual, which was good,
But we had the weather situation that kind of creeped
in on Saturday and Sunday. Saturday nine thousand flight delays. Sunday,
the single busiest travel day of the year, we had twelve,
four hundred and thirteen delays, and that's one of the
(01:04):
reasons that we had people on Sunday that were trying
to get to their destination that we are still We're
still trying yesterday and even today trying to get to
their destination on Tuesday. So it was just an absolute mess.
And one of the reasons that we had such a
problem was that TSA tells us that they had three
point one million people screened on Sunday the thirtieth, right,
(01:26):
and that is the single busiest day of travel ever
in the history of the United States. So when you
had that situation take place with the weather, we had
all kinds of problems. But look, it wasn't just that
we had some computer issues as well. Airbus announced on
Saturday their A three twenty aircraft needed a critical software update.
(01:46):
Now the weekend of Thanksgiving thanks for that. So they
had six thousand airplanes worldwide that required the upgrade. Now,
the good news is it didn't impact many US carriers.
We had I think United had sick deaths that had
to have received the critical software update dealt about fifty.
American Airline said some, but it was minimal. The Asian
(02:06):
market was the one that got impacted the most because
that region had dominated by those short haul A three
twenty planes, So we kind of dodged the bullet there.
But right I can't underestimate just how much of a
mess Sunday was because we had United Airlines had forty
three percent of their flights in their whole schedule that
(02:28):
were delayed in a single day, American forty four percent,
Southwest forty six percent of their flight were delayed on
that busy Sunday, that record setting Sunday on the thirtieth,
and that just created all kinds of problems. And we
almost made it through the busiest travel week of the
year without any problems. Had that stormed them a little
(02:48):
bit later, we would have made it. But it just
it hit us at the worst possible time. And look,
we had all hands on deck with a lot of
people had some big time headaches trying to get home
after that storm and all the computer issues that were
taking place.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
We're joined by our aviation analyst, Jay Ratliffe Triplea estimated
that around trip ticket for Thanksgiving travel ran about seven
hundred dollars this year. Is that about what we typically see?
Is that is that a bit higher?
Speaker 2 (03:17):
That's a bit higher. It is in fact one of
the reasons that the bit higher was because airlines knew
coming into it from the beginning of summer that the
advanced bookings were strong, even though there were economy worries
and you know, our people were going to be cutting back.
We saw a lot of what you call indicators that
the economy was kind of throttling back into areas, but
airlines were looking at their advanced bookings going, you know,
(03:39):
this looks pretty good. So because the demand was so high,
they were able to charge what the market would allow,
and as a result, they were able to charge some
incredibly high fares in some regards. Now, some people were
able to get some really good deals, and those at
bust their tickets nine, ten, eleven months in advance, double
gold star for you, because you were able to say
(04:00):
a great deal of money. Because the closer that we
got to Thanksgiving, the higher some of those fairs became.
And that was really an issue because so many people say, well, day,
you know, they didn't buy my tickets three months in advance,
so I'm going to wait because I read somewhere six
weeks out as the best time to buy a ticket,
and I'm like, well, yeah, but you're taking a gamble
because if the bookings are solid, all you're going to
(04:22):
do is the sick week market is pay a whole
lot more than you would have paid three months out.
And sadly, that's what happened this year because in most
markets we saw some incredibly high fare as the yie
old or the profit or passenger was up. For the airlines,
it's kind of like their Christmas in the October November
type of thing because they get a great deal of
revenue from that one week, and I'm telling you it
(04:45):
really paid off for him this year. Other than the
delays that occurred on that Sunday are going to eat
into those profits. But overall, I think the airline industry
would be very very pleased with what happened over that
Thanksgiving holiday.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
We're joined now by our aviation analyst, Jay Ratliffe. While
we're talking air travel, especially around the holidays, what's going
on with real id The TSA made a really important
announcement recently. Can you explain what exactly that is and
what this announcement laid out?
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Well, the real idea is the TSA approved government issued
driver's license that we all were supposed to have back
in May that was consistent that would allow us to
travel as that as our primary source of identification at
the airport. As parts going through the TSA line, there
are a number of people that didn't have their new,
(05:35):
updated TSA approved driver's license, and the ts they would
try to work with as many people as they could,
and they basically have said, okay, now what we're going
to do, because you still have a small percentage of
people that do not have this, we will let you
still use your you're inspired and not expired, but your
outdated driver's license that you get to renew without that
(05:57):
real ID, but we're going to charge you a forty
five dollars fee starting February first. Now they announced that
to this week and yesterday as a matter of fact,
and they're saying that this fee is going to help
kind of bring in the next phase of the real
ID implement implementation process and in essence, before we fly,
you go to TSA dot gov, you pay for your
(06:21):
at the TSA dot gov website, you pay for not
having that you know, real ID forty five bucks. It
was initially going to be eighteen dollars and they raised
it up to forty five dollars. Thing they had to
do that given some of the costs that are going
to be associated with this. But ran Is said, a
lot of people's mind at ease that say, look, I'm
freaking out because they don't have to relay team I'm
supposed to travel in January. Well, you can go online
(06:43):
at TSA dot gov, go through everything. You're still obviously
going to have to be screened and all that stuff
at the airport, but you get that done in advance.
Pay that forty five dollars, work with the TSA, you'll
be able to get through there. And it's kind of
alleviate a lot of stress because I've talked to so
many people for the last several months. Did have reached
out to me from across the country in an absolute
(07:04):
panic because they recognize, look, I don't have a passport
and I don't have one of the real IDs. I've
just got my driver's license, which is still valid, of course,
but you know what am I going to do when
I get to the airport. And of course, the DSA's
always worked with individuals, will continue to do so, and
this is the next step in that process. By again
going to TSA dot gov, you'll be able to pay
(07:26):
that forty five dollars fee. Fill out everything that you
need to so that when you get to the airport
you're ready to go. Now, for those that just go
up at the airport without doing that, they'll ask you
to get out of wine, go off to the side,
get online and pay it. So obviously this is something
you want to do anything else of arriving at the
airport if you do not have that real ID.
Speaker 1 (07:46):
And our aviation analyst Jay Rattlers with some really great
information for us this morning. Jay, Thanks so much. We'll
talk to you next week. Looking forward to it. So,
Ryan Gorman Show on NewsRadio WFLA, follow us on spook
an Instagram at Ryan Gorman Show, and find us online
at ryangormanshow dot com
Let's go to the hotline and bring in our aviation analyst,
Jay Ratlift. Jay, thanks so much for joining us this morning.
And you know, the government shutdown ended, and we thought
crisis was averted for the Thanksgiving holiday, especially when it
comes to air travel, and it certainly would have been
a lot worse if that shutdown had continued. But wasn't
(00:20):
all that great for a lot of travelers across the country.
What happened.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Well, keep in mind you and I've discussed many times,
ran during the before the shutdown took place, we were
averaging about lessen just under four thousand flight delays to day.
That was because we have a shorted of air traffic controllers,
so that's the bar, that's the norm as we have
it right now. So when we looked at Friday's number
(00:44):
of delays, we hit five thousand, which was manageable. It
was just a little bit more than usual, which was good,
But we had the weather situation that kind of creeped
in on Saturday and Sunday. Saturday nine thousand flight delays. Sunday,
the single busiest travel day of the year, we had twelve,
four hundred and thirteen delays, and that's one of the
(01:04):
reasons that we had people on Sunday that were trying
to get to their destination that we are still We're
still trying yesterday and even today trying to get to
their destination on Tuesday. So it was just an absolute mess.
And one of the reasons that we had such a
problem was that TSA tells us that they had three
point one million people screened on Sunday the thirtieth, right,
(01:26):
and that is the single busiest day of travel ever
in the history of the United States. So when you
had that situation take place with the weather, we had
all kinds of problems. But look, it wasn't just that
we had some computer issues as well. Airbus announced on
Saturday their A three twenty aircraft needed a critical software update.
(01:46):
Now the weekend of Thanksgiving thanks for that. So they
had six thousand airplanes worldwide that required the upgrade. Now,
the good news is it didn't impact many US carriers.
We had I think United had sick deaths that had
to have received the critical software update dealt about fifty.
American Airline said some, but it was minimal. The Asian
(02:06):
market was the one that got impacted the most because
that region had dominated by those short haul A three
twenty planes, So we kind of dodged the bullet there.
But right I can't underestimate just how much of a
mess Sunday was because we had United Airlines had forty
three percent of their flights in their whole schedule that
(02:28):
were delayed in a single day, American forty four percent,
Southwest forty six percent of their flight were delayed on
that busy Sunday, that record setting Sunday on the thirtieth,
and that just created all kinds of problems. And we
almost made it through the busiest travel week of the
year without any problems. Had that stormed them a little
(02:48):
bit later, we would have made it. But it just
it hit us at the worst possible time. And look,
we had all hands on deck with a lot of
people had some big time headaches trying to get home
after that storm and all the computer issues that were
taking place.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
We're joined by our aviation analyst, Jay Ratliffe Triplea estimated
that around trip ticket for Thanksgiving travel ran about seven
hundred dollars this year. Is that about what we typically see?
Is that is that a bit higher?
Speaker 2 (03:17):
That's a bit higher. It is in fact one of
the reasons that the bit higher was because airlines knew
coming into it from the beginning of summer that the
advanced bookings were strong, even though there were economy worries
and you know, our people were going to be cutting back.
We saw a lot of what you call indicators that
the economy was kind of throttling back into areas, but
airlines were looking at their advanced bookings going, you know,
(03:39):
this looks pretty good. So because the demand was so high,
they were able to charge what the market would allow,
and as a result, they were able to charge some
incredibly high fares in some regards. Now, some people were
able to get some really good deals, and those at
bust their tickets nine, ten, eleven months in advance, double
gold star for you, because you were able to say
(04:00):
a great deal of money. Because the closer that we
got to Thanksgiving, the higher some of those fairs became.
And that was really an issue because so many people say, well, day,
you know, they didn't buy my tickets three months in advance,
so I'm going to wait because I read somewhere six
weeks out as the best time to buy a ticket,
and I'm like, well, yeah, but you're taking a gamble
because if the bookings are solid, all you're going to
(04:22):
do is the sick week market is pay a whole
lot more than you would have paid three months out.
And sadly, that's what happened this year because in most
markets we saw some incredibly high fare as the yie
old or the profit or passenger was up. For the airlines,
it's kind of like their Christmas in the October November
type of thing because they get a great deal of
revenue from that one week, and I'm telling you it
(04:45):
really paid off for him this year. Other than the
delays that occurred on that Sunday are going to eat
into those profits. But overall, I think the airline industry
would be very very pleased with what happened over that
Thanksgiving holiday.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
We're joined now by our aviation analyst, Jay Ratliffe. While
we're talking air travel, especially around the holidays, what's going
on with real id The TSA made a really important
announcement recently. Can you explain what exactly that is and
what this announcement laid out?
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Well, the real idea is the TSA approved government issued
driver's license that we all were supposed to have back
in May that was consistent that would allow us to
travel as that as our primary source of identification at
the airport. As parts going through the TSA line, there
are a number of people that didn't have their new,
(05:35):
updated TSA approved driver's license, and the ts they would
try to work with as many people as they could,
and they basically have said, okay, now what we're going
to do, because you still have a small percentage of
people that do not have this, we will let you
still use your you're inspired and not expired, but your
outdated driver's license that you get to renew without that
(05:57):
real ID, but we're going to charge you a forty
five dollars fee starting February first. Now they announced that
to this week and yesterday as a matter of fact,
and they're saying that this fee is going to help
kind of bring in the next phase of the real
ID implement implementation process and in essence, before we fly,
you go to TSA dot gov, you pay for your
(06:21):
at the TSA dot gov website, you pay for not
having that you know, real ID forty five bucks. It
was initially going to be eighteen dollars and they raised
it up to forty five dollars. Thing they had to
do that given some of the costs that are going
to be associated with this. But ran Is said, a
lot of people's mind at ease that say, look, I'm
freaking out because they don't have to relay team I'm
supposed to travel in January. Well, you can go online
(06:43):
at TSA dot gov, go through everything. You're still obviously
going to have to be screened and all that stuff
at the airport, but you get that done in advance.
Pay that forty five dollars, work with the TSA, you'll
be able to get through there. And it's kind of
alleviate a lot of stress because I've talked to so
many people for the last several months. Did have reached
out to me from across the country in an absolute
(07:04):
panic because they recognize, look, I don't have a passport
and I don't have one of the real IDs. I've
just got my driver's license, which is still valid, of course,
but you know what am I going to do when
I get to the airport. And of course, the DSA's
always worked with individuals, will continue to do so, and
this is the next step in that process. By again
going to TSA dot gov, you'll be able to pay
(07:26):
that forty five dollars fee. Fill out everything that you
need to so that when you get to the airport
you're ready to go. Now, for those that just go
up at the airport without doing that, they'll ask you
to get out of wine, go off to the side,
get online and pay it. So obviously this is something
you want to do anything else of arriving at the
airport if you do not have that real ID.
Speaker 1 (07:46):
And our aviation analyst Jay Rattlers with some really great
information for us this morning. Jay, Thanks so much. We'll
talk to you next week. Looking forward to it. So,
Ryan Gorman Show on NewsRadio WFLA, follow us on spook
an Instagram at Ryan Gorman Show, and find us online
at ryangormanshow dot com
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