Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Night Michael Brown joins me here the former FEMA
director of talk show host Michael Brown.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Rownie, no, Brownie, You're doing a heck of a job
the Weekend with Michael Brown.
Speaker 3 (00:09):
Hey, we're broadcasting live from Denver, Colorado. You've turned into
the Weekend with Michael Brown. I don't know why, but
I'm glad that you have. Very happy to have you
joining the program today. So you know, we got rules
of engagement. They're pretty easy to follow. I think even
you num skulls can follow the rules of engagement for
this program. If you want to send me a message,
it's real easy to do. On your message app use
(00:30):
this number three three one zero three three three one
zero three, keyword Mike or Michael, and that you can
tell me anything or ask mean thing. And it was
kind of funny because I always tell people and I
mean this. I read every single text message and I'm
reading them all the time, and this week I forget
what day. It really doesn't make any difference. And I
was I sat down and I was getting ready to
(00:52):
watch something on television, and I thought, oh, I haven't
looked at text messages in a while. And somebody asked
me a question, and I don't respond to all of them,
but this was a fairly personal question, and so I
responded to it. And the reply was, oh, you really
do read all of your text messages? Well, duh? Do
you think I come out here and just lie about
(01:12):
it whole so many a text message and then never
look at them. Of course I look at them, and
then do me a favor, you know. Actually, and actually
I'm going to grovel a little bit here. X formerly
known as Twitter, is going through, which is fine with me,
Don't get me wrong. I'm happy they're doing this, but
it secures my numbers. They they've changed their algorithms such
(01:33):
that account. They've done two things. They've when you hover over,
for example, on my account at Michael Brown USA, when
you hover over the date that I joined X, it
will show you the country of origin, the country where
I downloaded the app, and whether I'm using the mobile
(01:55):
or the desktop app, and it'll give you all sorts
of location information, so that now you can actually see
that there are a lot of foreign accounts that present
themselves as US accounts and they're clearly bots or it's
a sort of counterintelligence operation going on, you know, out
(02:18):
of Yemen or Bangkok or you know, lord knows where,
trying to influence how Americans think about particular issues. So
I'm really glad they've done that. But also in the
process they're starting to look for and eliminate bots or
fake accounts.
Speaker 4 (02:35):
You know.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
Now, a bot is just an account that is designed
as a computer program to just automatically, you know, go
follow somebody and then you know, respond like or you know,
say stupid things, and they can just send it out
to millions of people and it becomes it secures everything. Well,
(02:57):
Musk has changed the algorithm and they're starting to get
rid of them, which I'm happy with, but that also
means I've lost probably about one thousand followers, just about
a thousand followers, which is fine because that means that
it's cleaning up the people that they interact with me.
And I'd rather interact with you know, legitimate goobers as
(03:18):
opposed to fake goobers. So if you want to follow me,
please do that and let's get those numbers back up.
It's at Michael Brown USA, at Michael Brown USA. So
this week, after what five plus years, almost six years now,
they found the bomber. Yes, they found the bomber, and
Jake Tapper couldn't wait to talk about it.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
Welcome to the lead. I'm Jake Tappler. After nearly five
years of investigation, the FBI finally announced that they had
arrested a suspect. A suspect accused of planting pipe bonds
near the Republican and Democratic National Committee headquarters the night
before the January sixth, twenty twenty one capital attack. Brian
Cole Junior, a thirty year old white man from the
(04:00):
DC suburbs, is charged with transporting an explosive device.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
Hmmm, a thirty year old white man from Woodbridge, Virginia.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
Hm.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
That's interesting because they flash a photograph of this suspect
and he's a black person. Now, Am I going to
impute some sort of malicious activity on the part of
Jake Tapper? Damn right, I am. You absolutely better believe
I am, because this is the same guy that for
(04:38):
four years covered the Biden administration, even interviewed Biden personally,
and then at the end of the Biden term, well, shazam,
he may have been he may have been asleep at
the switch. So I think I'll write a book about it.
I'll get me a co author, somebody to do all
the heavy lifting, and we'll write a book, you know,
we'll splash my name on it, and I'll go out
(04:58):
and I'll do all of the interview he was about
and sell this book about how Biden for four years
was incapable of doing the job. So, yeah, Jake Caaber
doesn't have any credibility with me whatsoever. And so I
do impune that here he or his producers either knew
what they were doing or they weren't paying any attention.
And if you're not paying any attention when you're doing
(05:21):
a newscast, then shame on you. And I've been in
those rooms when they do newscasts. I've been sitting right
next to an anchor on Fox News or Newsmax or
CNN somewhere where you know you're sitting there in the
cant you know you're off camera, but you're still sitting
at the anchor desk, and you can see what they're
reading on the teleprompter, and you can see, based on
the monitors in front of you, is what is being
(05:42):
fed out to the audience. So Jake Tapper and his producers,
he's reading from a teleprompter. He announces that they've arrested
a white guy, and then they put up a picture
of the actual suspect and huh, he's a black man.
Where was the producer? Where was Jake? Why didn't anybody say, oh,
I'm sorry, I meant to say a black suspect, not
(06:06):
a white suspect. Yeah. I don't trust I just I
literally do not trust them, having seen what they did
to or tried to do anyway to my life, and
then watching stories like this. Then I got to tell you, no,
I don't believe. I don't believe it for a second.
But beyond that, listen to something I want you to
(06:26):
think about. Do you think at the time of this
bombing back on, you know, when the day the music
almost died, the day that the Republic almost failed, the
director of the FBI was Christopher Ray. Do you think
that the FBI failed in pursuing and finding this suspect?
(06:50):
All of you who thinks, I'll raise your hands, Okay,
Now the next question is do you think the FBI
betray us? Raise your hand? Yeah, that's kind of what
I think too. Four years of so called failure in
the DC pipe bomber case, I think suggests an honest
(07:10):
but incompetent effort on behalf of the world's foremost investigative agency.
Define the person who planted a functioning and potentially dead
pipe bomb just outside the headquarters of both the Democrat
National Committee and the Republican National Committees on the night
of January five, twenty twenty one, the night before the attack,
(07:32):
as Jake Tapper calls it, or the riots on January sixth.
The reality, however, I think, is that the FBI spent
years persecuting every grandmother, every tourist, every innocent person who
just happened to be at the Capitol grounds who wandered
(07:53):
into the Capitol in January sixth. Now, those who actually,
you know, committed smacks of violence or vandalism, I believe
they should have been charged and should have been prosecuted.
But I don't think that was the FBI's I don't think.
I think the FBI was more interested in going after
the grandmothers than they were actually going after the people that,
(08:14):
uh oh, may have planned functioning pipe bombs outside the
headquarters of the two major parties that operate this country. Yes,
I think it was actually a betrayal, and I'll explain
why next it's the Weekend with Michael Brown. Be sure
(08:34):
and follow me in X at Michael Brown USA. Text
lines always opened three three one zero three, keyword micro Michael.
I'll be right back. Hey, welcome back to the Welcome
back to the Weekend with Michael Brown. Glad to have
you with me. Text lines always opened, three three one
zero three, keyword micro Michael. And then on your podcast app,
(08:57):
be sure and subscribe to the program. It's the Situation
with Michael Brown. And I know that's different than the
Weekend with Michael Brown, but we just have one podcast,
the Situation with Michael Brown. If you hit that subscribe button,
leave a five star review, then that will download all
five days of my weekday program that also broadcasts from Denver,
plus the Weekend program, which we broadcast out of Denver, Colorado.
(09:20):
So be sure and sub subscribe to the podcast. So
I want you to think about this. Cash Bettel says
that we did not discover any new information. Oh. Then
he goes on to say, we re examined every piece
of evidence, sifted through all the data, something that the
prior administration refused and failed to do. Wow, let that
(09:46):
sink in for a moment. So the pipe bomber committed
his crime in the most heavily surveiled area of probably
the most heavily surveiled city in the entire world, and
nothing happened. I've been to both the DNC and the
r n C. I've actually walked through those doors. You know,
(10:06):
don't ask me why I was the Democrat National Committee,
but yes, I've had to go there for meetings. But
it is one of those places where if you're like
me with you know my background is the undersecretary, you'll
you'll soon learn. And it's pretty easy now to recognize
that everywhere you go, we're being surveilled, We're being watched.
(10:28):
So that occurs a little over five years ago, and
the FBI was able to within days of January sixth,
positively identify hundreds of Trump supporters who were at the
Capitol that day and then branch out all across the
fruited plane to conduct armed raids pre non at the
(10:54):
homes of people that were on the Capitol grounds. And
yet while they were able to do that, the rotten
at the top FBI and the Biden two tier Justice
Department somehow couldn't manage to find this one guy. We
find hundreds of others, but we can't find the one guy.
And the surveillance was just as heavy at the RNC
(11:17):
and DNC as it is at the United States Capital. Wow. Now,
the guy's apparently thirty year old Brian Cole. He's from Woodbridge, Virginia.
That's a suburb of the DC area that just south
on I ninety five. He'll be arraigned in the DC
federal court here, or has been arigned in DC federal court.
(11:37):
He is a black man, and he's apparently apparently a
Trump hating social justice advocate, not some fringy, bearded, knuckle dragging,
you know, white Trumper that they were all trying to arrest,
you know, based on their January sixth tour of the
Capital Rotunda. So he doesn't fit the narrative, does he No,
he doesn't fit the narrative, which is that's why Cash
(12:00):
Battail and Pam Bondi and the President need to be
out front emphasizing what a great job was done here,
because I think they did do a good job. Democrat
Senator Mark Warner from Virginia where the suspect lives, was
really desperate to try to attempt and divert attention from
(12:21):
this dirt bag's political affiliation to chart to you know,
and change his step. Well, everything the Patel and Donald
Trump are doing. If the FBI are really bad, because
he says, quote is a Senator Warner? How much earlier
could we have caught this guy if resources haven't been diverted? Okay,
(12:42):
let's think about the timeline. This shows you how stupid
sometimes you as senators are. How much earlier could we
have caught this guy if resources had not been diverted?
So this occurred on January five, twenty twenty one. Trump
gets elected in November of twenty twenty four and doesn't
(13:03):
take office until oh about eleven months ago on January twentieth,
twenty twenty five. So they had five years to try
and find this guy, and Trump's found the guy, or
cash Betel the FBI in the Department of Justice have
found the guy in let's span one year. Well, if
(13:27):
you really want to ask, how much earlier, Senator Warner,
can we have caught this guy if the resources hadn't
been diverted, well about four years earlier, as it turns out,
which gets back to my question about did the FBI
fail us or did the FBI betray us. Now the
smoking gun of the pre Trump fbis lie. That's easy
(13:50):
and it's pretty clear. Georgia Republican Congressman Barry Laudermilk's House
Administration over Site Subcommittee said more than a year ago
that the cell phone carriers Verizon AT and T T
Mobile that quote, they have told Congress they possess intact
phone usage data from the vicinity where two pipe bombs
(14:13):
were planted just before the January sixth Capitol riot. And
this revelation is quote directly disputing FBI testimony that agents
could not identify as suspect because the phone data was corrupted. Oh,
turns out that that was a lie. They didn't fail us,
(14:36):
they betrayed us. So, as cash Battel put it in
his press conference, we went back, he said, and looked
at the cell phone towered data dumps. We went back
and looked at the providers and what information they provided
pursued to every single search mort at the time and
asked questions such as why weren't all these phone numbers scrubbed,
(14:57):
why aren't they connected? And why wasn't there any geolocation
data done? Now that is he said, I love this
sentence he said, quote that is either sheer incompetence or
complete intentional negligence, and neither of which is acceptable for
(15:19):
this FBI. If there was ever a great moment for Cash, Betel,
Dan Bongino and the entire FBI, this is it. And
that was precisely an almost perfect thing to say. It's
a good thing I wasn't the FBI director because I
(15:40):
probably would have taken a step further and really called
out Christopher Ray and everybody else. But that's why I'm
not the FBI director, because you don't you don't want
to give away too much, but you do want to
send a signal to all the politicians out there, and
send a signal to everybody that works in the bureaucracy
of the FBI that, hmm, this looks like either sheer
(16:03):
incompetence or complete intentional negligence, because that sends a signal
to all the current employees of the FBI that we
may just try to look at how did you handle
this investigation and maybe we can find some people in
here now that there is or is not. I'm just
saying we should go look. Maybe there were some people
that were trying to intentionally not find this particular guy. Now,
(16:30):
apparently the FBI is also had also foraged through all
the purchases of the necessary bomb making equipment, which included
more than two hundred thousand purchases of the type of
pipe in caps that were used in the DC pipe bombs.
You know, when you step back from this story, you
soon begin to realize that what really took place here
(16:53):
was true gum shoe detective work. BI doing what the
FBI really is good at, and that is conducting criminal
investigations based on the evidence and letting the evidence take
you where you need to go, as opposed to, oh,
(17:17):
let's just go find some people and then find the
evidence to back up the case. Here's just an armchair
investigative tip. Instead of pouring over the purchase receipts of
umpteen thousand pipe in caps at home depot, Low's or
Ace Hardware or where else, why not first narrow your
search to say, oh, all the purchasers of an exceedingly
(17:40):
rare pair of Nike Airmac Speed turf shoes in the blaye,
in the black, gray, yellow, and in the size fitting
the profile of a five seven person that they've been
looking for years. That was right there in that videotape.
How about that. I'll be right back tonight.
Speaker 1 (18:06):
Michael Brown joins me here, the former FEMA director of
talk show host Michael Brown.
Speaker 4 (18:10):
Brownie, No, Brownie, You're doing a heck of a job
the Weekend with Michael Brown.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
Hey, welcome back to the Weekend with Michael Brown. Glad
to have you with me. Well, it was a crazy
week in politics. Politics is crazy anyway. But Congressman Henry Quayar,
a congressman from South Texas, he had been indicted, and
he had been charged, indicted, charged and convicted some sort
(18:35):
of bribery scheme. I forget what it was, and it
doesn't really matter to the story. But after the conviction,
Trump pardoned him.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
First of all, I want to thank President Trump for this. Actually, yeah,
he took be having my wife and my family. I
want to say thank you.
Speaker 4 (18:57):
I think the facts have been very clear about this.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
But I would also say I want to thank God
for standing during this very difficult time with my family
and I.
Speaker 4 (19:07):
Now we can get back to work and nothing has changed.
We will continue working hard. In fact, right now I've
got another congressman. We we're working on some legislation but
I just wonder for now.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
That is my statement.
Speaker 3 (19:20):
Yeah, and he's not going to change parties either. Don't
get don't get excited and think that he's going to
change parties.
Speaker 2 (19:26):
So I'm just going to ask you about the pardon
and how it came about and your reaction to what
the president decided to do. Well, you know, first of all,
I was being asked by the media what I thought
about the part and sod what parton on it? And uh.
From there they told me it was minus oh and
(19:48):
so I said.
Speaker 4 (19:49):
I'll call back and we read it.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
So I read it.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
Uh, And I'm surely very thankful to the president, very
thankful to the President, and also very thankful to God.
Speaker 3 (20:02):
You know, it was a very.
Speaker 2 (20:03):
Difficult time for my family, my daughters, my wife, a
very difficult time, but we came through this. We're going
to focus on continue to focusing on work, and we're
going to focus on work, and we're ready to move
forward on work again.
Speaker 4 (20:19):
I certainly want to thank the President for this part.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
Do you think you might change parties after another?
Speaker 3 (20:26):
Nothing has changed.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
I'm a conservative blue dog. I will work with the president.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
Like I'm a conservative blue dog Democrat and I ain't
going to change parties. So Trump's decision to pardon this
particular congressman from Texas has really stunned a lot of people,
especially those who have followed Quaar's corruption for years. There
are people who were involved in uncovering key pieces of
(20:53):
Quaar's misconduct during his indictment by the Department of Justice,
and lots of people helped expose the foreign bribes that
he took from Azerbaijan and Mexico, and they've documented all
the disturbing irregularities in his twenty twenty four congressional race
against a Republican down in Texas by the name of
Jay Furman. Now, Quayar's record is not misunderstood, it is
(21:19):
not exaggerated. It is exactly what it looks like, the
record of a profoundly corrupt politician. And I think that's
why the Trump pardon feels, at least on the surface,
kind of impossible to justify. But politics is rarely clean,
and in this case, it's pretty clear. As uncomfortable as
(21:40):
it is, that, I think Trump made the right strategic call.
The charges against Kuayar remained some of the most serious
that have ever been sought against the sitting member of Congress.
According to the indictment, Quayar and his wife accepted about
six hundred thousand dollars in bribes from an Ozerbrajean state
owned oil company Socar and from Mexico's Monco as Teca,
(22:04):
and that money was funneled through shell companies that were
owned by Kwaar's wife, and they were disguised as consulting fees.
And the prosecutors in the case say that nobody, nobody
really performed or they performed little or no work for
those massive payouts. That kind of corruption started, or that
particular scheme, I should say, began probably about more than
(22:28):
a decade ago. That was after they had traveled on
a codell A congressional trip to Turkey and Azerbaijan on
a trip that was funded by a nonprofit out of Houston,
and what looked like routine travel then started to evolve
into a year's long exchange of influence, cash, and policy favors.
(22:49):
Prosecutors detailed the direct communications between Quaar and Azerbaijan's ambassador
to the United States, including discussions about contracts and legislation
that would benefit the Augibijan government. One of the contracts
alone provided about twenty thousand dollars a month through Quaar's wife,
(23:13):
one of the companies up through about twenty nineteen. Now,
let's go to Mexico, because Quaar's work for Mexican interests
was it wasn't any better. It's actually just as bad.
Banco Azteca agreed to pay Quaar's wife twelve thousand dollars
per month, plus potential bonuses up to half a million
dollars in return for Quaar's help in weakening US regulations.
(23:37):
And then he pushed to soften anti money laundering language,
offering insider updates to bank executives and even texted them
while looking at legislation that was moving through Congress. So
to hide all these operations, what Quaar did was he
he used intermediaries who later pleaded guilty to money laundry,
(23:58):
including his longtime associate Florencio Lentil Rendon and his former
chief of staff. And when the FBI rated Quaar's home
in Loreto, Texas, back in twenty twenty two, the depth
of the scheme became unavoidable. Corruption doesn't get much clearer
than this, and still Trump issued a full and complete
(24:20):
pardon It wasn't a commutation, it wasn't you know a
it was just a complete pardon. That begs the question
why would Trump do this? Why in the world would
Trump do something like this? Because Quaar is not a
typical Democrat. Now, what I'm about to talk about is
(24:42):
just pure inside the beltwagh politics. May not like it.
Not asking you to like it or dislike it. I'm
just telling you what it is. He is. Quaar is
probably one of the if not the only, remain being
moderate in the Democrat Party. He's probe order security, he's
(25:04):
critical of the far left nut jobs, and he's increasingly
isolated within the Democrat caucus. And Trump understands political realignment
better than any figure in American politics. Today. South Texas
is already shifting toward the Republican Party, and a figure
like Henry Quayar, who has until Monday to change his
(25:27):
party registration for the next election cycle, could accelerate that
shift dramatically. Now he has said he's not going to
do it, but I don't think he needs to do it.
If Trump can flip even a single Democrat of Quaar's
stature or simply secure his open support, that sends a
(25:47):
national message. The national message. The national message is the
realignment is growing and the Democrat coalition is cracking from within. Now.
I don't like seeing Henry Quaar walk away from accountability,
and based on everything that I've read his dealings with
(26:08):
foreign governments, the money laundering, the election inconsistencies, he deserves consequences,
not clemency. But the pardon was needed for a broader
strategy because in the balance of power in Congress South
Texas and in the broader political landscape, Trump made a
very difficult but ultimately correct political calculation. And sometimes leadership,
(26:31):
unfortunately requires choosing the move that feels wrong but strengthens
the future of the country. And Trump's pardon hen of
Henry Quayar could be one of those moments. Playing that
forty chess and playing it from a thirty thousand foot level,
which looks okay, but when you look down just at
(26:55):
the nitty gritty ooh, it just kind of makes you
feel dirty. But what about that realignment? Is it real?
Hang tight, I'll be right back. Hey, Welcome back to
the Weekend with Michael Brown. Glad to have you with me.
So as usual, text line is always open three three,
(27:17):
one zero three keyword, Michael, Michael, go follow me on
except Michael Brown USA. So while this doesn't necessarily involve
Texas because Texas is mostly a red state, I know
that in the urban area San Antonio, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, Houston,
I know it's beginning to shift some. But to show
(27:37):
you this realignment that's going on, let's go to some
of the battleground states. Let's go to Florida. Just start,
and I want to talk about how the shift is
moving from blue to red, and in some cases, even
in blue states, the red is beginning to increase. I'll
(28:03):
just start with Florida. So party ID Between November of
last year and December of this year, in Florida, Republicans
have gone from A plus seven point eight percent, which
equates to about one point one million voters, to a
(28:25):
Republican plus ten point five percent that equates to about
one point four Republican voters. So they've made another gain
in November, pushing the state to R plus ten and
a half percent, nearly three points right of where it
was in November of last year, when Trump won the
(28:46):
state by thirteen points. Duval County in Florida has shifted
to within a single point for the fading Democrat registration advantage,
which suggests that, oh, even down in Georgia, it's beginning
to get redder. Because Florida's drift is predictive for both
(29:08):
Pennsylvania and Michigan and has been since like nineteen fifty two,
So this is good news for Republicans. Let's go to Iowa.
The net shift since November is November of twenty four
to December twenty five, is Republicans are up about four
hundred and twenty two voters. Doesn't sound like a lot,
(29:30):
but listen to the percentages in Iowa. In November twenty
twenty four, Republicans held the Republicans were up ten point
three percent. Republicans are now up ten point nine percent.
That's it's not much changed from the previous month. But
here's the way to look at it. There's no signs
(29:53):
of slippage in the Upper Midwest because Iowa is a
reliable proxy for both minutes and even more importantly for Wisconsin.
So you see this is these are the types of
numbers that the RNC and Trump, being the business guy
that he is, he sees this shift and he understands
(30:16):
that the shifts in Florida and in Iowa are predictors
for other battleground states. That's why I think that the
Texas move was a strategic move. Yes, dirty politically yeah,
kind of icky, yes, but for the all overall health
(30:36):
of the country and trying to keep this realignment moving.
I understand why he did it. You may not like it,
and that's fine, but I understand it. This go to Pennsylvania,
which truly delivered the presidency to Trump last November. So
what's happened in Pennsylvania. In November of twenty twenty four,
Democrats held a three point one percent advantage. They were
(30:59):
up by about a little over a quarter of a
million voters. In December this month, Democrats are down to
only a one point nine percent advantage. They've dropped from
a two hundred and eighty six thousand voter advantage down
to only a one hundred and seventy thousand voter advantage.
And when you look at some of the key counties
(31:22):
like Philadelphia, for example, Philadelphia has dropped by about half
a percentage point. Alleghany County has dropped from twenty six
point five percent down to twenty five point nine percent.
Montgomery County has dropped from fifteen point two percent down
to fifteen point one percent, and Northampton County has dropped
from five point one percent down to three point six percent.
(31:45):
So Scott Presler, who is out talking about what's going
on in Pennsylvania, he's sounding the alarm. But he's doing
that because he's trying to keep reving up the base.
But I think the alarm. While I would not criticize
Scott Watson whoever, for doing so, I would look at
it and say, the net change the voter rolls shows
the slightest of Democrat gains, but when you investigate the
(32:10):
sixty seven counties, it suggests the change was probably because
of just registration maintenance. After the November elections, Democrats have
lost over forty percent of the registration advantage they held
in November of twenty twenty four when Trump won the
state comfortably. That shows that's the realignment that I'm talking
(32:32):
about from Texas that's playing out in other states. Go
to North Carolina. Remember how everybody was all concerned about
North Carolina. In November of twenty twenty four, North Carolina
held a Democrat advantage of about one point three percent.
They had one hundred and five thou a little over
one hundred and five thousand registered Democrat advantage over Republicans.
(32:57):
This month, that has dropped to zero percent advantage. Democrats
are only up about three thousand votes. They've gone from
one hundred and five thousand vote advantage. I should say registration,
not voter registration. That's a more precise word to use.
So in North Carolina, Democrats have gone from one hundred
(33:19):
and five thousand registration advantage down to only a three
thousand registration advantage. And when you look at some of
the key counties, Mecklenburg County, for example, they've dropped from
a twenty point three advantage down to a nine point
nineteen point eight percent. And in Wake County they've gone
from thirteen point one percent Democrats have down to a
twelve point six percent. So their Democrats are moving in
(33:43):
the wrong direction, Republicans are moving in the right direction.
Democrats still have an overall voter registration advantage. For example,
the overall voter registration I said in North Carolina is
still an advantage to the Democrats, but it's gone from
a high hundred and five thousand down to only three thousand.
(34:04):
So the North Carolina's first December update, which will get
later in the month, puts Democrats below two thousand for
overall registration advantage. I think there's a possibility that North
Carolina will flip Republican by the end of the year
(34:24):
and that will continue on into the next year. Now
whether former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper who's running for the
US Senate North Carolina, it might make a difference. The
Republicans need all the help they can that they can get.
I think that the Republican held seat in North Carolina
is one of two Republican seats Senate seats at risk
(34:46):
in the midterms, and the next Republican presidential candidate, if
those trends persist, could carry North Carolina by at least
five points. This is the realignment that's taking place that
Trump is paying attention to. Let's go up to New Hampshire.
New Hampshire is interesting because in November of twenty twenty four,
(35:09):
Republicans held a four point three percent advantage. This month
that has gone to a five point two percent advantage.
In other words, they've increased Republican registration from a little
over thirty eight thousand to almost fifty thousand. So New
Hampshire remains the most likely Republican flip for the twenty
(35:34):
twenty eight presidential election. And in the meantime, they've got
several important races on the ballot in twenty twenty six,
like a US Senate seat and the battle for the
first Congressional district, which Democrat Chris Pappus will vacate to
run for that Senate seat, leading an open house seat
in the Senate seat. If those numbers continue, New Hampshire
(35:57):
could become pivotal. I know, small state, but when you're counting,
you know, every electoral vote that you can get, Yeah,
it becomes incredibly important. Arizona. I love Arizona not only
because my daughter lives there. I just love Arizona because
it's politics is so screwed up. But look at these numbers.
(36:19):
In November twenty twenty four, Republicans held a six point
eight percent advantage, a two hundred almost almost three hundred
thousand voter registration advantage that has now gone to a
Republican seven point five percent, and an almost three hundred
and twenty eight thousand Republican advantage. That's a shift, a
(36:40):
very significant shift in Arizona, and that's what Trump is
watching in Texas too. Hang tight, I'll be right back.
The Night Michael Brown joins me here the former FEMA
director of talk show host Michael Brown.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Rownie, no, Brownie, You're doing a heck of a job
the Weekend with Michael Brown.
Speaker 3 (00:09):
Hey, we're broadcasting live from Denver, Colorado. You've turned into
the Weekend with Michael Brown. I don't know why, but
I'm glad that you have. Very happy to have you
joining the program today. So you know, we got rules
of engagement. They're pretty easy to follow. I think even
you num skulls can follow the rules of engagement for
this program. If you want to send me a message,
it's real easy to do. On your message app use
(00:30):
this number three three one zero three three three one
zero three, keyword Mike or Michael, and that you can
tell me anything or ask mean thing. And it was
kind of funny because I always tell people and I
mean this. I read every single text message and I'm
reading them all the time, and this week I forget
what day. It really doesn't make any difference. And I
was I sat down and I was getting ready to
(00:52):
watch something on television, and I thought, oh, I haven't
looked at text messages in a while. And somebody asked
me a question, and I don't respond to all of them,
but this was a fairly personal question, and so I
responded to it. And the reply was, oh, you really
do read all of your text messages? Well, duh? Do
you think I come out here and just lie about
(01:12):
it whole so many a text message and then never
look at them. Of course I look at them, and
then do me a favor, you know. Actually, and actually
I'm going to grovel a little bit here. X formerly
known as Twitter, is going through, which is fine with me,
Don't get me wrong. I'm happy they're doing this, but
it secures my numbers. They they've changed their algorithms such
(01:33):
that account. They've done two things. They've when you hover over,
for example, on my account at Michael Brown USA, when
you hover over the date that I joined X, it
will show you the country of origin, the country where
I downloaded the app, and whether I'm using the mobile
(01:55):
or the desktop app, and it'll give you all sorts
of location information, so that now you can actually see
that there are a lot of foreign accounts that present
themselves as US accounts and they're clearly bots or it's
a sort of counterintelligence operation going on, you know, out
(02:18):
of Yemen or Bangkok or you know, lord knows where,
trying to influence how Americans think about particular issues. So
I'm really glad they've done that. But also in the
process they're starting to look for and eliminate bots or
fake accounts.
Speaker 4 (02:35):
You know.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
Now, a bot is just an account that is designed
as a computer program to just automatically, you know, go
follow somebody and then you know, respond like or you know,
say stupid things, and they can just send it out
to millions of people and it becomes it secures everything. Well,
(02:57):
Musk has changed the algorithm and they're starting to get
rid of them, which I'm happy with, but that also
means I've lost probably about one thousand followers, just about
a thousand followers, which is fine because that means that
it's cleaning up the people that they interact with me.
And I'd rather interact with you know, legitimate goobers as
(03:18):
opposed to fake goobers. So if you want to follow me,
please do that and let's get those numbers back up.
It's at Michael Brown USA, at Michael Brown USA. So
this week, after what five plus years, almost six years now,
they found the bomber. Yes, they found the bomber, and
Jake Tapper couldn't wait to talk about it.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
Welcome to the lead. I'm Jake Tappler. After nearly five
years of investigation, the FBI finally announced that they had
arrested a suspect. A suspect accused of planting pipe bonds
near the Republican and Democratic National Committee headquarters the night
before the January sixth, twenty twenty one capital attack. Brian
Cole Junior, a thirty year old white man from the
(04:00):
DC suburbs, is charged with transporting an explosive device.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
Hmmm, a thirty year old white man from Woodbridge, Virginia.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
Hm.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
That's interesting because they flash a photograph of this suspect
and he's a black person. Now, Am I going to
impute some sort of malicious activity on the part of
Jake Tapper? Damn right, I am. You absolutely better believe
I am, because this is the same guy that for
(04:38):
four years covered the Biden administration, even interviewed Biden personally,
and then at the end of the Biden term, well, shazam,
he may have been he may have been asleep at
the switch. So I think I'll write a book about it.
I'll get me a co author, somebody to do all
the heavy lifting, and we'll write a book, you know,
we'll splash my name on it, and I'll go out
(04:58):
and I'll do all of the interview he was about
and sell this book about how Biden for four years
was incapable of doing the job. So, yeah, Jake Caaber
doesn't have any credibility with me whatsoever. And so I
do impune that here he or his producers either knew
what they were doing or they weren't paying any attention.
And if you're not paying any attention when you're doing
(05:21):
a newscast, then shame on you. And I've been in
those rooms when they do newscasts. I've been sitting right
next to an anchor on Fox News or Newsmax or
CNN somewhere where you know you're sitting there in the
cant you know you're off camera, but you're still sitting
at the anchor desk, and you can see what they're
reading on the teleprompter, and you can see, based on
the monitors in front of you, is what is being
(05:42):
fed out to the audience. So Jake Tapper and his producers,
he's reading from a teleprompter. He announces that they've arrested
a white guy, and then they put up a picture
of the actual suspect and huh, he's a black man.
Where was the producer? Where was Jake? Why didn't anybody say, oh,
I'm sorry, I meant to say a black suspect, not
(06:06):
a white suspect. Yeah. I don't trust I just I
literally do not trust them, having seen what they did
to or tried to do anyway to my life, and
then watching stories like this. Then I got to tell you, no,
I don't believe. I don't believe it for a second.
But beyond that, listen to something I want you to
(06:26):
think about. Do you think at the time of this
bombing back on, you know, when the day the music
almost died, the day that the Republic almost failed, the
director of the FBI was Christopher Ray. Do you think
that the FBI failed in pursuing and finding this suspect?
(06:50):
All of you who thinks, I'll raise your hands, Okay,
Now the next question is do you think the FBI
betray us? Raise your hand? Yeah, that's kind of what
I think too. Four years of so called failure in
the DC pipe bomber case, I think suggests an honest
(07:10):
but incompetent effort on behalf of the world's foremost investigative agency.
Define the person who planted a functioning and potentially dead
pipe bomb just outside the headquarters of both the Democrat
National Committee and the Republican National Committees on the night
of January five, twenty twenty one, the night before the attack,
(07:32):
as Jake Tapper calls it, or the riots on January sixth.
The reality, however, I think, is that the FBI spent
years persecuting every grandmother, every tourist, every innocent person who
just happened to be at the Capitol grounds who wandered
(07:53):
into the Capitol in January sixth. Now, those who actually,
you know, committed smacks of violence or vandalism, I believe
they should have been charged and should have been prosecuted.
But I don't think that was the FBI's I don't think.
I think the FBI was more interested in going after
the grandmothers than they were actually going after the people that,
(08:14):
uh oh, may have planned functioning pipe bombs outside the
headquarters of the two major parties that operate this country. Yes,
I think it was actually a betrayal, and I'll explain
why next it's the Weekend with Michael Brown. Be sure
(08:34):
and follow me in X at Michael Brown USA. Text
lines always opened three three one zero three, keyword micro Michael.
I'll be right back. Hey, welcome back to the Welcome
back to the Weekend with Michael Brown. Glad to have
you with me. Text lines always opened, three three one
zero three, keyword micro Michael. And then on your podcast app,
(08:57):
be sure and subscribe to the program. It's the Situation
with Michael Brown. And I know that's different than the
Weekend with Michael Brown, but we just have one podcast,
the Situation with Michael Brown. If you hit that subscribe button,
leave a five star review, then that will download all
five days of my weekday program that also broadcasts from Denver,
plus the Weekend program, which we broadcast out of Denver, Colorado.
(09:20):
So be sure and sub subscribe to the podcast. So
I want you to think about this. Cash Bettel says
that we did not discover any new information. Oh. Then
he goes on to say, we re examined every piece
of evidence, sifted through all the data, something that the
prior administration refused and failed to do. Wow, let that
(09:46):
sink in for a moment. So the pipe bomber committed
his crime in the most heavily surveiled area of probably
the most heavily surveiled city in the entire world, and
nothing happened. I've been to both the DNC and the
r n C. I've actually walked through those doors. You know,
(10:06):
don't ask me why I was the Democrat National Committee,
but yes, I've had to go there for meetings. But
it is one of those places where if you're like
me with you know my background is the undersecretary, you'll
you'll soon learn. And it's pretty easy now to recognize
that everywhere you go, we're being surveilled, We're being watched.
(10:28):
So that occurs a little over five years ago, and
the FBI was able to within days of January sixth,
positively identify hundreds of Trump supporters who were at the
Capitol that day and then branch out all across the
fruited plane to conduct armed raids pre non at the
(10:54):
homes of people that were on the Capitol grounds. And
yet while they were able to do that, the rotten
at the top FBI and the Biden two tier Justice
Department somehow couldn't manage to find this one guy. We
find hundreds of others, but we can't find the one guy.
And the surveillance was just as heavy at the RNC
(11:17):
and DNC as it is at the United States Capital. Wow. Now,
the guy's apparently thirty year old Brian Cole. He's from Woodbridge, Virginia.
That's a suburb of the DC area that just south
on I ninety five. He'll be arraigned in the DC
federal court here, or has been arigned in DC federal court.
(11:37):
He is a black man, and he's apparently apparently a
Trump hating social justice advocate, not some fringy, bearded, knuckle dragging,
you know, white Trumper that they were all trying to arrest,
you know, based on their January sixth tour of the
Capital Rotunda. So he doesn't fit the narrative, does he No,
he doesn't fit the narrative, which is that's why Cash
(12:00):
Battail and Pam Bondi and the President need to be
out front emphasizing what a great job was done here,
because I think they did do a good job. Democrat
Senator Mark Warner from Virginia where the suspect lives, was
really desperate to try to attempt and divert attention from
(12:21):
this dirt bag's political affiliation to chart to you know,
and change his step. Well, everything the Patel and Donald
Trump are doing. If the FBI are really bad, because
he says, quote is a Senator Warner? How much earlier
could we have caught this guy if resources haven't been diverted? Okay,
(12:42):
let's think about the timeline. This shows you how stupid
sometimes you as senators are. How much earlier could we
have caught this guy if resources had not been diverted?
So this occurred on January five, twenty twenty one. Trump
gets elected in November of twenty twenty four and doesn't
(13:03):
take office until oh about eleven months ago on January twentieth,
twenty twenty five. So they had five years to try
and find this guy, and Trump's found the guy, or
cash Betel the FBI in the Department of Justice have
found the guy in let's span one year. Well, if
(13:27):
you really want to ask, how much earlier, Senator Warner,
can we have caught this guy if the resources hadn't
been diverted, well about four years earlier, as it turns out,
which gets back to my question about did the FBI
fail us or did the FBI betray us. Now the
smoking gun of the pre Trump fbis lie. That's easy
(13:50):
and it's pretty clear. Georgia Republican Congressman Barry Laudermilk's House
Administration over Site Subcommittee said more than a year ago
that the cell phone carriers Verizon AT and T T
Mobile that quote, they have told Congress they possess intact
phone usage data from the vicinity where two pipe bombs
(14:13):
were planted just before the January sixth Capitol riot. And
this revelation is quote directly disputing FBI testimony that agents
could not identify as suspect because the phone data was corrupted. Oh,
turns out that that was a lie. They didn't fail us,
(14:36):
they betrayed us. So, as cash Battel put it in
his press conference, we went back, he said, and looked
at the cell phone towered data dumps. We went back
and looked at the providers and what information they provided
pursued to every single search mort at the time and
asked questions such as why weren't all these phone numbers scrubbed,
(14:57):
why aren't they connected? And why wasn't there any geolocation
data done? Now that is he said, I love this
sentence he said, quote that is either sheer incompetence or
complete intentional negligence, and neither of which is acceptable for
(15:19):
this FBI. If there was ever a great moment for Cash, Betel,
Dan Bongino and the entire FBI, this is it. And
that was precisely an almost perfect thing to say. It's
a good thing I wasn't the FBI director because I
(15:40):
probably would have taken a step further and really called
out Christopher Ray and everybody else. But that's why I'm
not the FBI director, because you don't you don't want
to give away too much, but you do want to
send a signal to all the politicians out there, and
send a signal to everybody that works in the bureaucracy
of the FBI that, hmm, this looks like either sheer
(16:03):
incompetence or complete intentional negligence, because that sends a signal
to all the current employees of the FBI that we
may just try to look at how did you handle
this investigation and maybe we can find some people in
here now that there is or is not. I'm just
saying we should go look. Maybe there were some people
that were trying to intentionally not find this particular guy. Now,
(16:30):
apparently the FBI is also had also foraged through all
the purchases of the necessary bomb making equipment, which included
more than two hundred thousand purchases of the type of
pipe in caps that were used in the DC pipe bombs.
You know, when you step back from this story, you
soon begin to realize that what really took place here
(16:53):
was true gum shoe detective work. BI doing what the
FBI really is good at, and that is conducting criminal
investigations based on the evidence and letting the evidence take
you where you need to go, as opposed to, oh,
(17:17):
let's just go find some people and then find the
evidence to back up the case. Here's just an armchair
investigative tip. Instead of pouring over the purchase receipts of
umpteen thousand pipe in caps at home depot, Low's or
Ace Hardware or where else, why not first narrow your
search to say, oh, all the purchasers of an exceedingly
(17:40):
rare pair of Nike Airmac Speed turf shoes in the blaye,
in the black, gray, yellow, and in the size fitting
the profile of a five seven person that they've been
looking for years. That was right there in that videotape.
How about that. I'll be right back tonight.
Speaker 1 (18:06):
Michael Brown joins me here, the former FEMA director of
talk show host Michael Brown.
Speaker 4 (18:10):
Brownie, No, Brownie, You're doing a heck of a job
the Weekend with Michael Brown.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
Hey, welcome back to the Weekend with Michael Brown. Glad
to have you with me. Well, it was a crazy
week in politics. Politics is crazy anyway. But Congressman Henry Quayar,
a congressman from South Texas, he had been indicted, and
he had been charged, indicted, charged and convicted some sort
(18:35):
of bribery scheme. I forget what it was, and it
doesn't really matter to the story. But after the conviction,
Trump pardoned him.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
First of all, I want to thank President Trump for this. Actually, yeah,
he took be having my wife and my family. I
want to say thank you.
Speaker 4 (18:57):
I think the facts have been very clear about this.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
But I would also say I want to thank God
for standing during this very difficult time with my family
and I.
Speaker 4 (19:07):
Now we can get back to work and nothing has changed.
We will continue working hard. In fact, right now I've
got another congressman. We we're working on some legislation but
I just wonder for now.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
That is my statement.
Speaker 3 (19:20):
Yeah, and he's not going to change parties either. Don't
get don't get excited and think that he's going to
change parties.
Speaker 2 (19:26):
So I'm just going to ask you about the pardon
and how it came about and your reaction to what
the president decided to do. Well, you know, first of all,
I was being asked by the media what I thought
about the part and sod what parton on it? And uh.
From there they told me it was minus oh and
(19:48):
so I said.
Speaker 4 (19:49):
I'll call back and we read it.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
So I read it.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
Uh, And I'm surely very thankful to the president, very
thankful to the President, and also very thankful to God.
Speaker 3 (20:02):
You know, it was a very.
Speaker 2 (20:03):
Difficult time for my family, my daughters, my wife, a
very difficult time, but we came through this. We're going
to focus on continue to focusing on work, and we're
going to focus on work, and we're ready to move
forward on work again.
Speaker 4 (20:19):
I certainly want to thank the President for this part.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
Do you think you might change parties after another?
Speaker 3 (20:26):
Nothing has changed.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
I'm a conservative blue dog. I will work with the president.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
Like I'm a conservative blue dog Democrat and I ain't
going to change parties. So Trump's decision to pardon this
particular congressman from Texas has really stunned a lot of people,
especially those who have followed Quaar's corruption for years. There
are people who were involved in uncovering key pieces of
(20:53):
Quaar's misconduct during his indictment by the Department of Justice,
and lots of people helped expose the foreign bribes that
he took from Azerbaijan and Mexico, and they've documented all
the disturbing irregularities in his twenty twenty four congressional race
against a Republican down in Texas by the name of
Jay Furman. Now, Quayar's record is not misunderstood, it is
(21:19):
not exaggerated. It is exactly what it looks like, the
record of a profoundly corrupt politician. And I think that's
why the Trump pardon feels, at least on the surface,
kind of impossible to justify. But politics is rarely clean,
and in this case, it's pretty clear. As uncomfortable as
(21:40):
it is, that, I think Trump made the right strategic call.
The charges against Kuayar remained some of the most serious
that have ever been sought against the sitting member of Congress.
According to the indictment, Quayar and his wife accepted about
six hundred thousand dollars in bribes from an Ozerbrajean state
owned oil company Socar and from Mexico's Monco as Teca,
(22:04):
and that money was funneled through shell companies that were
owned by Kwaar's wife, and they were disguised as consulting fees.
And the prosecutors in the case say that nobody, nobody
really performed or they performed little or no work for
those massive payouts. That kind of corruption started, or that
particular scheme, I should say, began probably about more than
(22:28):
a decade ago. That was after they had traveled on
a codell A congressional trip to Turkey and Azerbaijan on
a trip that was funded by a nonprofit out of Houston,
and what looked like routine travel then started to evolve
into a year's long exchange of influence, cash, and policy favors.
(22:49):
Prosecutors detailed the direct communications between Quaar and Azerbaijan's ambassador
to the United States, including discussions about contracts and legislation
that would benefit the Augibijan government. One of the contracts
alone provided about twenty thousand dollars a month through Quaar's wife,
(23:13):
one of the companies up through about twenty nineteen. Now,
let's go to Mexico, because Quaar's work for Mexican interests
was it wasn't any better. It's actually just as bad.
Banco Azteca agreed to pay Quaar's wife twelve thousand dollars
per month, plus potential bonuses up to half a million
dollars in return for Quaar's help in weakening US regulations.
(23:37):
And then he pushed to soften anti money laundering language,
offering insider updates to bank executives and even texted them
while looking at legislation that was moving through Congress. So
to hide all these operations, what Quaar did was he
he used intermediaries who later pleaded guilty to money laundry,
(23:58):
including his longtime associate Florencio Lentil Rendon and his former
chief of staff. And when the FBI rated Quaar's home
in Loreto, Texas, back in twenty twenty two, the depth
of the scheme became unavoidable. Corruption doesn't get much clearer
than this, and still Trump issued a full and complete
(24:20):
pardon It wasn't a commutation, it wasn't you know a
it was just a complete pardon. That begs the question
why would Trump do this? Why in the world would
Trump do something like this? Because Quaar is not a
typical Democrat. Now, what I'm about to talk about is
(24:42):
just pure inside the beltwagh politics. May not like it.
Not asking you to like it or dislike it. I'm
just telling you what it is. He is. Quaar is
probably one of the if not the only, remain being
moderate in the Democrat Party. He's probe order security, he's
(25:04):
critical of the far left nut jobs, and he's increasingly
isolated within the Democrat caucus. And Trump understands political realignment
better than any figure in American politics. Today. South Texas
is already shifting toward the Republican Party, and a figure
like Henry Quayar, who has until Monday to change his
(25:27):
party registration for the next election cycle, could accelerate that
shift dramatically. Now he has said he's not going to
do it, but I don't think he needs to do it.
If Trump can flip even a single Democrat of Quaar's
stature or simply secure his open support, that sends a
(25:47):
national message. The national message. The national message is the
realignment is growing and the Democrat coalition is cracking from within. Now.
I don't like seeing Henry Quaar walk away from accountability,
and based on everything that I've read his dealings with
(26:08):
foreign governments, the money laundering, the election inconsistencies, he deserves consequences,
not clemency. But the pardon was needed for a broader
strategy because in the balance of power in Congress South
Texas and in the broader political landscape, Trump made a
very difficult but ultimately correct political calculation. And sometimes leadership,
(26:31):
unfortunately requires choosing the move that feels wrong but strengthens
the future of the country. And Trump's pardon hen of
Henry Quayar could be one of those moments. Playing that
forty chess and playing it from a thirty thousand foot level,
which looks okay, but when you look down just at
(26:55):
the nitty gritty ooh, it just kind of makes you
feel dirty. But what about that realignment? Is it real?
Hang tight, I'll be right back. Hey, Welcome back to
the Weekend with Michael Brown. Glad to have you with me.
So as usual, text line is always open three three,
(27:17):
one zero three keyword, Michael, Michael, go follow me on
except Michael Brown USA. So while this doesn't necessarily involve
Texas because Texas is mostly a red state, I know
that in the urban area San Antonio, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, Houston,
I know it's beginning to shift some. But to show
(27:37):
you this realignment that's going on, let's go to some
of the battleground states. Let's go to Florida. Just start,
and I want to talk about how the shift is
moving from blue to red, and in some cases, even
in blue states, the red is beginning to increase. I'll
(28:03):
just start with Florida. So party ID Between November of
last year and December of this year, in Florida, Republicans
have gone from A plus seven point eight percent, which
equates to about one point one million voters, to a
(28:25):
Republican plus ten point five percent that equates to about
one point four Republican voters. So they've made another gain
in November, pushing the state to R plus ten and
a half percent, nearly three points right of where it
was in November of last year, when Trump won the
(28:46):
state by thirteen points. Duval County in Florida has shifted
to within a single point for the fading Democrat registration advantage,
which suggests that, oh, even down in Georgia, it's beginning
to get redder. Because Florida's drift is predictive for both
(29:08):
Pennsylvania and Michigan and has been since like nineteen fifty two,
So this is good news for Republicans. Let's go to Iowa.
The net shift since November is November of twenty four
to December twenty five, is Republicans are up about four
hundred and twenty two voters. Doesn't sound like a lot,
(29:30):
but listen to the percentages in Iowa. In November twenty
twenty four, Republicans held the Republicans were up ten point
three percent. Republicans are now up ten point nine percent.
That's it's not much changed from the previous month. But
here's the way to look at it. There's no signs
(29:53):
of slippage in the Upper Midwest because Iowa is a
reliable proxy for both minutes and even more importantly for Wisconsin.
So you see this is these are the types of
numbers that the RNC and Trump, being the business guy
that he is, he sees this shift and he understands
(30:16):
that the shifts in Florida and in Iowa are predictors
for other battleground states. That's why I think that the
Texas move was a strategic move. Yes, dirty politically yeah,
kind of icky, yes, but for the all overall health
(30:36):
of the country and trying to keep this realignment moving.
I understand why he did it. You may not like it,
and that's fine, but I understand it. This go to Pennsylvania,
which truly delivered the presidency to Trump last November. So
what's happened in Pennsylvania. In November of twenty twenty four,
Democrats held a three point one percent advantage. They were
(30:59):
up by about a little over a quarter of a
million voters. In December this month, Democrats are down to
only a one point nine percent advantage. They've dropped from
a two hundred and eighty six thousand voter advantage down
to only a one hundred and seventy thousand voter advantage.
And when you look at some of the key counties
(31:22):
like Philadelphia, for example, Philadelphia has dropped by about half
a percentage point. Alleghany County has dropped from twenty six
point five percent down to twenty five point nine percent.
Montgomery County has dropped from fifteen point two percent down
to fifteen point one percent, and Northampton County has dropped
from five point one percent down to three point six percent.
(31:45):
So Scott Presler, who is out talking about what's going
on in Pennsylvania, he's sounding the alarm. But he's doing
that because he's trying to keep reving up the base.
But I think the alarm. While I would not criticize
Scott Watson whoever, for doing so, I would look at
it and say, the net change the voter rolls shows
the slightest of Democrat gains, but when you investigate the
(32:10):
sixty seven counties, it suggests the change was probably because
of just registration maintenance. After the November elections, Democrats have
lost over forty percent of the registration advantage they held
in November of twenty twenty four when Trump won the
state comfortably. That shows that's the realignment that I'm talking
(32:32):
about from Texas that's playing out in other states. Go
to North Carolina. Remember how everybody was all concerned about
North Carolina. In November of twenty twenty four, North Carolina
held a Democrat advantage of about one point three percent.
They had one hundred and five thou a little over
one hundred and five thousand registered Democrat advantage over Republicans.
(32:57):
This month, that has dropped to zero percent advantage. Democrats
are only up about three thousand votes. They've gone from
one hundred and five thousand vote advantage. I should say registration,
not voter registration. That's a more precise word to use.
So in North Carolina, Democrats have gone from one hundred
(33:19):
and five thousand registration advantage down to only a three
thousand registration advantage. And when you look at some of
the key counties, Mecklenburg County, for example, they've dropped from
a twenty point three advantage down to a nine point
nineteen point eight percent. And in Wake County they've gone
from thirteen point one percent Democrats have down to a
twelve point six percent. So their Democrats are moving in
(33:43):
the wrong direction, Republicans are moving in the right direction.
Democrats still have an overall voter registration advantage. For example,
the overall voter registration I said in North Carolina is
still an advantage to the Democrats, but it's gone from
a high hundred and five thousand down to only three thousand.
(34:04):
So the North Carolina's first December update, which will get
later in the month, puts Democrats below two thousand for
overall registration advantage. I think there's a possibility that North
Carolina will flip Republican by the end of the year
(34:24):
and that will continue on into the next year. Now
whether former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper who's running for the
US Senate North Carolina, it might make a difference. The
Republicans need all the help they can that they can get.
I think that the Republican held seat in North Carolina
is one of two Republican seats Senate seats at risk
(34:46):
in the midterms, and the next Republican presidential candidate, if
those trends persist, could carry North Carolina by at least
five points. This is the realignment that's taking place that
Trump is paying attention to. Let's go up to New Hampshire.
New Hampshire is interesting because in November of twenty twenty four,
(35:09):
Republicans held a four point three percent advantage. This month
that has gone to a five point two percent advantage.
In other words, they've increased Republican registration from a little
over thirty eight thousand to almost fifty thousand. So New
Hampshire remains the most likely Republican flip for the twenty
(35:34):
twenty eight presidential election. And in the meantime, they've got
several important races on the ballot in twenty twenty six,
like a US Senate seat and the battle for the
first Congressional district, which Democrat Chris Pappus will vacate to
run for that Senate seat, leading an open house seat
in the Senate seat. If those numbers continue, New Hampshire
(35:57):
could become pivotal. I know, small state, but when you're counting,
you know, every electoral vote that you can get, Yeah,
it becomes incredibly important. Arizona. I love Arizona not only
because my daughter lives there. I just love Arizona because
it's politics is so screwed up. But look at these numbers.
(36:19):
In November twenty twenty four, Republicans held a six point
eight percent advantage, a two hundred almost almost three hundred
thousand voter registration advantage that has now gone to a
Republican seven point five percent, and an almost three hundred
and twenty eight thousand Republican advantage. That's a shift, a
(36:40):
very significant shift in Arizona, and that's what Trump is
watching in Texas too. Hang tight, I'll be right back.
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