9-17-24 - 8am - Trump Yes or Trump No

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Michael.

Speaker 2 (00:01):
Instead of calling them the mainstream media, I think we
need to call them the millennial media.

Speaker 1 (00:07):
They don't work.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
Very hard, they don't try very hard.

Speaker 1 (00:10):
They're true millennial.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
Media can quite often be debunched by about a five
minute Google search.

Speaker 1 (00:22):
I don't think I could find it. But someone on
x formerly Twitter yesterday had a study about the collapse
of two parent households and the the feminization of males,

(00:46):
and then it had a graph going over the past
and they and they were focused on thirty year olds.
This is where I'm chasing a squirrel, and I shouldn't
because I don't have it in front of me. But
imagine a graph that went back thirty years of thirty
year olds. And so you go back thirty years to

(01:11):
and I think the most recent data was for twenty
twenty three. The number of thirty year olds who lived
with their who lived independently at thirty years old was
like in their it was like in the sixties seventy
percent range thirty years ago, and that's now dropped down

(01:34):
to you know, like less than thirty percent, and those
who had children had dropped an equal All four graphs
were essentially the same. The downward trend was just downward.
The number that lived with their parents, that number had increased,
the number without children, the number that not married, all

(01:57):
downward trends. And I think that is a reflection of
social media. It's the feminization of I mean, toxic masculinity.
All of those things just are destroying the country from within.

(02:17):
But that's as far as I'm going to chase that
squirrel right now. So where are we? How many days
are we dragging? We are? We? Are we under fifty
days yet? Yeah?

Speaker 2 (02:28):
I think she said that this morning. I can't recall exactly.

Speaker 1 (02:30):
It's forty nine or forty eight or something like that.
What are the number is? But anyway, the days are
dwindling down to a precious view and unfortunately, whatever precious
few days we have left are going to be spent
discussing well, I apologize for blowing my nose on air,

(02:51):
but good grief, my allergies are just can we just
get a freeze and kill whatever's in the air, or
can we just get like a nuclear holocostumes destroy everything
that's in the air. Huh? Live radio great, live radio
is just wonderful, and just you know, just a thermal
nuclear lay down and just destroy every living thing so

(03:13):
that I can breathe again. It'd be wonderful, it'd be fantastic.
So the days are dwindling down, that we're getting closer
and closer. But as we get closer and closer, the
amount of time we have to spend talking about the
fact that the days are dwindling down and we're getting
closer and closer means we're gonna have to spend more
time talking about the days dwinlling down and we're getting
closer and closer. The unavoidable and sometimes I think the

(03:38):
unpleasant reality of this particular presidential campaign is that it's
going to be reduced to those voters who are listening closely,
because if you don't listen closer, you may think I'm
not making any sense here, which would be like a
furse mean to not make any sense as we get closer.

(04:06):
The unavoidable reality is that this presidential campaign can be
reduced to those voters who are for Donald Trump and
those who are voting against Donald Trump. In short, this
campaign is Trump Yes or Trump No. Because the relative

(04:27):
unimportance of Kamala Harris is that her name Kamala Harris,
That is that who the Dominium. The Democrats side is
I'm not sure the relative unimportance of the Democrat candidate
is the fact that they change candidates in mid stream,
and the alteration of candidates did not materially affect the

(04:49):
campaign's likely trajectory or its terminal point. I think it's well.
The changing candidate did affect the recent debate. We didn't
have a Joe Biden two point zero Voters unable to

(05:12):
see their clear way to voting for Donald Trump, needed
some reassurance that Kamala Harris was not the giggling, cackling
airhead schoolgirl that she more often than not appears to be,

(05:33):
and somehow that she was in fact a credible alternaty
for the presidency. Now, I know that I'm biased, but
I don't think we have faced a more I mean,
take Jimmy Carter. Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden. When he
was Joe Biden, Joe Biden was still was he himself

(05:54):
was a DIPTS, but nonetheless he was a uh. I
wanted to say masterful politician, But when I think of
masterful politicians, I think of Sam Rayburn, I think of
Lyndon Baines, Johnson I do not think. I think of
Donald Trump too, he's a master or Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan.

(06:17):
I do not think of Joe Biden, but nonetheless he
was a good politician, He was a solid politician. Team Trump,
I think, also was clearly hoping that their candidate would
spend the debate informing voters about Pamela Harris's prior or

(06:41):
whatever our current positions are, if we know what those are.
On gun confiscation, abortion without any restriction, by the way,
you know, as a footnote right here, I never really
really fully comprehended how many states have zero limitations on abortion.
This whole idea of abortion up to and including birth

(07:06):
is actually legitimate like nine different states in this country.
So how in the hell are Democrats bitching about abortion?
Good grief, you you pretty much got what you want.
Is that what you want in all fifty seven states?
Is that what you're after? Or or going back to
my list that I may here of topics, Kamala Harris's

(07:28):
position on gun confiscation, which she clearly is for abortion
without restrictions, which she is clearly for racial reparations, where
she is clearly for taxing unrealized games, which she was
clearly for and I think still is, but realize that
she just can't talk about it. Electric vehicle mandates, which
she is clearly for, but she doesn't want to mention it.

(07:49):
Defunding the police, which he is clearly for but doesn't
want to mention it, the southern border, and blah blah
blah blah blah, just goes on and on and on
and on. Now, let's go back to the debate. What's
a bit now two weeks ago today, I think, isn't it?
Trump has successfully avoided damaging a seal himself. During the debate.
He managed to remind voters that Kamala Harris has become

(08:13):
unburdened from whatever has been and unburdened from the issues
that had been previously important to her, and even noticed
at least a couple of times during the debate that
Kamala Harris is the very same Kamala Harris who is
President Biden's vice president. That's actually an accomplishment, believe it,
or I think can considering how bad the moderators were,

(08:37):
that is an amazing accomplishment. Now, did Trump wonder a
bit at times? Yes, But all of Trump's wanderings and
his stream of consciousness, thinking that's all within the acceptable
range of Trump's meanderings. There was nothing like, he didn't

(08:58):
completely go off the rail. So all things considered, maybe
just maybe from the debate itself, there was maybe a
slight temporary advantage to Kamala Harris. But does that matter.
I don't think it does. And I think whatever slight

(09:19):
advantage you may have had after the debate has now
completely dissipated. In Oxwayne Wine just a second, So where
are we now, less than fifty days away from election
day or from the election month, whatever it is, I
think the race remains centered on about half a million

(09:39):
votes in seven states. Now, I think very importantly many
of those voters, those half a million voters in seven
states are blue collar, working class Americans. Now, those are
also voters that really do not always turn out as

(09:59):
innergect as voters that are educated to the college level,
but still blue collar workers. Comprise sixty percent six zero
percent of all voters on election day. Now that's ominous
for Kamala Harris because in all seven of those states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada,

(10:24):
North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In all seven of those states.
Working class blue collar voters are a higher percentage of
the voters in those seven states than the national average,
and with the economy sucking wind as much as it
is right now, those voters will turn out. So among

(10:49):
those blue collar working class voters, guess where we are now.
I picked the absolute most biased poll numbers just to
give you a sense of confidence that this is a

(11:10):
winning election. According to the most recent New York Times
Sienna survey, Kamala Harris trails Donald Trump by seventeen points
among blue collar working class voters. And remember, those comprise

(11:31):
a greater percentage of voters in those seven swing states.
And now, even though they don't normally turn out in
as grade A numbers as do those so called college
educated voters, they're now more motivated to do so than
are the college educated voters, other than those who want
to turn out simply because they want to vote for

(11:53):
a vagina versus voting for a penis. Excuse me for
being blunt, but that's what it boils down to. Now,
let's give us some context. That is about the same
as Joe Biden's performance among working class voters as measured

(12:14):
just before he dropped out of the race. In twenty twenty,
Biden lost that group by four points. Now I mention
all of that because a again, let's go to not
necessarily a pro Trump survey, a CNN survey. A survey

(12:36):
conducted by CNN after the debate found that Donald Trump
had a solid twenty point advantage with respect to who
voters trusted most to manage the economy. That is an
increase from the sixteen point lead that he had prior

(12:57):
to the debate. We have two polls New York Times
Sienna that shows that Trump is ahead seventeen points among
blue collar working class voters. That's well beyond Oh hang on,

(13:17):
you know, Dragon, could one more thing go wrong this morning?
I'm blowing my nose on air. I'm the middle of
I don't know why I feel like I have to
do this right now. Bete for you, I won't know
when the break comes up other than in fact you
remind me. So we got New York Times Sienna Trump's
leading among those voters by seventeen points. Then, CNN says

(13:40):
that Trump has a solid twenty point advantage among voters
who trust him better to lead the economy than they
do Kamala Harris, and that's an increase from the sixteen
point lead that he had before the debate. Among working
class voters, Trump's advantage with respect to the economy is

(14:00):
a solid thirty two points. His advantage with respect to
immigration is they solid thirty seven points. The two most
important issues they're facing voters right now, Trump has respectively
a thirty two point lead on the economy and a
thirty seven point lead on immigration. Now, to most voters,

(14:23):
the debate, it didn't change anything. It really didn't change anything.
The race has been a referendum with respect to mister
Trump for at least the term of a pregnancy nine months,

(14:47):
give or take. They still see Donald Trump is the
right answer on the two most important issues, economy and immigration.
There's another way of thinking about the campaign is that
in the remaining few weeks, the voters will finally face

(15:09):
the actual choices. Keep going down the same path with
Kamala Harris that we've been traveling for most of the
last fifteen years or more, or vote for Donald Trump
and change of an uncertain magnitude, an uncertain direction, but

(15:30):
nonetheless a change from what we've been seeing, just this slow,
rotting dit that we've been in since Bill Clinton or
maybe Barack Obama. I pick your poison. I don't care
now to throw a little bit of cold water on

(15:50):
what I've said. The candidates themselves, Trump and Harris really
aren't making the choice any easier because they drift in
that of policy positions that I really think most people
don't be. Like this whole idea that we're now not
going to tax over time. I mean that's nothing more

(16:11):
than a throwaway line under what economic rationale?

Speaker 2 (16:15):
Free pizza on Fridays?

Speaker 1 (16:17):
Yeah, I mean that that's exactly what it is, pre
pizza on Friday and no homework. Is Kamala Harris now
really in flavor in favor of the most plentiful production
of oil and natural gas? Is she really against gun confiscation?

(16:37):
Is she against the complete evisceration of the southern border?
And is Donald Trump now really in favor of tax
credits for evs? Can you play Karma Chameleon at my
culture Club? Is bumper music? Castaskan? No, we don't take requests,
so no, we're not going to do that, right dragon. Absolutely,

(17:01):
we can't go down this path of starting to, you know,
comply with every stupid little request for every stupid little
song of the that that you know.

Speaker 2 (17:11):
We just don't have time. We don't have time for that,
and we don't want to play favorites.

Speaker 1 (17:14):
And we don't want play favorites, and and quite frankly,
while that song's got to kind of catchy little tune
to it, it's it's totally irrelevant to what we're talking about.
I mean, what are you trying to imply there? What? What? What?
What were you trying to imply by getting us We're
trying to get us to play com a chameleon?

Speaker 2 (17:32):
What?

Speaker 1 (17:32):
What? What? What's the point? I'm at a loss. I
sometimes this audience just completely befuddles me. Their their lack
of intellect and trying to tie things together. It's just
like it's a munch of kindergartner's out there. You're just
trying to herd cats like a bunch of Haitians, which

(17:54):
leads to bomb threats, which it leads to assassination attempts
on Donald Trump. Question then leads me to snorting on
the air because I got it cut. Now someone's trying
to tell me I got to take some sort of
medicinal tea. Now they think they're doctors too that you know,
they're allergies. They're gonna treat my allergy somehow. Maybe I

(18:16):
got the COVID. You know we have somebody in the
building had COVID. Yeah, maybe I got the COVID.

Speaker 2 (18:22):
He's right outside door right now.

Speaker 1 (18:25):
Who are you talking about?

Speaker 2 (18:27):
Brian Schuestring.

Speaker 1 (18:29):
He had the COVID? He did? Did he have it bad?
And take a couple of days off? It was that bad?
Oh to go? How do you know when Ryan's working
or not working? You do? Can you tell the difference?
The good thing is he can't hear me right now.
He's out there. He's out there with an O. S U.
T shirt on. How where the hell he got that?
At him? And so have you seen that? There's been

(18:54):
a copy of the Sunday comics from some I think
something called a newspaper laying out there on one of
the cubicles too. So I picked them up and I
threw it, threw him at him and said, here's your
show prep for the day. Why do people in the
building hate me? I don't understand it. I don't know.

(19:15):
I don't understand why people hate me. I try to
be helpful and he just looks at me like, go
to hell, And I'm like, I'm just trying, buddy, I'm
just trying to help you. I'm trying to I'm trying
to improve you know your your skill set here, you're thoughtful,
just I am thoughtful. Just go in there, read the
comics and that'll be better than whatever you're trying to
prep for right now. Oh, good grief. Can I go

(19:38):
home now? Almost? I how many words do I have
left here that I want to get through? Let me
get back to my notes, so eat me. Let me.
Let me reiterate these two surveys. The New York Times

(20:02):
Ciena survey had Trump up seventeen points on the economy.
CNN had Trump up twenty points. I take that back.
I turn around New York Times Cienna had Trump up
seventeen points. Now, gobbledee, goot my notes here. Yes, CNN

(20:34):
has Trump up twenty points on the economy. And that's
an increase from the sixteen point lead he had before
the debate. The debate. When it came to the blue collar,
working class Americans, Trump was up seventeen points on that.

(20:56):
And so you take everything together. Among working class voters,
Trump has an advantage of thirty two points on the
economy and thirty seven points on immigration. So you go
back to two weeks ago, the debate was I don't
even think it was a wash. I actually think the

(21:19):
debate and then the couple of interviews that Kamala Harris
has done she's losing ground. Those are the kind of
trend lines that we want to see when we're forty
nine days out of way from the election. And as
I said before the break, they're now kind of to

(21:40):
Dragon's point. Promising, you know, pizza every Friday and no homework,
but committing to an action is not easy for any
candidate for any elected office, mostly because when you make
a specif promise that tends to be a clarifying moment.

(22:06):
It allows people to actually make an informed decision with
respect to an issue about which they care. And then
that provides that the additional peek into a candidate's genuine beliefs,
and that can be dangerous for a campaign. On the
other hand, if you do it right, specificity can actually

(22:29):
help a candidate, allowing the candidates to draw a distinction
between their opponent and employ a nuance. Let me give
you an example. Here's I thought about this what if
Trump concluded that we should all be able to agree
that abortions should be as rare as possible, and that

(22:50):
mothers should be given the support, whether health care or
education or simply financial that they need so they can
make the air quote here right decision. And in suppose
that Trump committed to use the full resources of the
federal government to ensure that mothers are encouraged to carry
their children to term, much as the federal government now

(23:12):
exerts steady influence to reduce smoking. Not that I'm trying
to compare abortion to smoking, but trying to use a
parallel example of who doesn't now know that smoking's bad
for them, even people that smoke. At least we would
be talking about something that is material rather than something's

(23:33):
kind of ephemeral, that something that's kind of in the
ether out there somebody is not really very well defined.
Or if you would like a different example, one of
the candidates could choose to directly address the contextual overhang
of the entire election, and that would be the distinct

(23:54):
possibility that the winners will use the legal system against
the losers lawfare. What if one of the candidates committed
to a general amnesty for everyone who asked everyone with
respect to a violation of campaign finance laws or Ford
Agent Registration Act, or which is whatever, pick whatever your

(24:17):
favorite cause is. There's actually a lot of historical precedent
in the range Wars of the West, and obviously in
the aftermath of the Civil War, we didn't hunt down
the Southern rebels. We didn't hunt them down, we didn't
execute them, we didn't need punished generally, we didn't even

(24:38):
to punish the leaders. If both candidates Frankie frank, I
think if just one of the candidates made that commitment,
that would change the tone and the tenor of the
campaign immediately, and that would give the candidate who committed
to that the moral and I think the political high ground.

(25:01):
And then I think, even more importantly, and I think
a lot of you might disagree with this, I think
that might actually be the right thing to do for
a country that needs to step away from the abyss.
I actually disagree with Trump about going after his enemies.
They're going to be there regardless, and you go after them,

(25:22):
you just make more of them, You just make them
more determined than ever. If I were Trump, I wouldn't
necessarily say that I'm going to go after my enemies.
If I were asked the question, I would say, I
don't care. All I care about is winning and then
implementing these policies that I think are going to be

(25:43):
good to secure the sovereignty of this nation, to get
us out of another potential forever war, that we're going
to improve this economy by first reducing energy costs and
then by imposing terrorists. Way, I want you to hear
something maybe the next hour about tariffs, where the best
explanations of tariffs, which I'm generally opposed to one of

(26:07):
his campaign managers talking about how Trump intends to use tariffs.
But go back to my point about this general amnesty
rather than Trump suggesting a general amnesty and he's not
going to go after his enemies. Just focus instand on.
I'm going to do the right thing for the American people,

(26:28):
and I'm going to, you know, whatever those particular issues
might be. I'm going to secure the border. I'm going
to drill, baby, drill. I'm going to you know, I'm
going to maybe I'll let you hear the tariff story
sooner rather than later on the eve of the go
back to twenty sixteen. On the eve of that election,

(26:54):
the average of all the survey results from Real Clear
Politics projected that Trump would receive about forty two percent
of the popular vote and two hundred and sixty six
electoral votes. He wound up with forty six point seven
percent of the popular vote and three hundred and six
electoral votes. The twenty twenty election looked similar, with surveys

(27:19):
predicting that he would lose the popular vote by as
much as ten points rather than the four points he
actually lost by. Some state level predictions were even less accurate.
Go back to twenty sixteen, surveys indicated that Trump would
lose Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by six, four and three points, respectively.

(27:39):
But what happened. He won those three states by point
eight point two and point seven points. In twenty twenty,
Real Clear Politics indicated that Biden would win Wisconsin, Michigan,
and Pennsylvania by eight, six and three points, one by

(28:01):
zero point six, three and one point two. Now posters
are going to be posters. Campaign outcomes, especially for those
campaigns in which one side has been disqualified in so
many social settings, can be very predictable, difficult to predict

(28:22):
how many people do you know that are closet Trump supporters?
But because it's literally dangerous to be a Trump supporter,
you don't answer surveys, you don't answer posters, you don't
fly a Trump flag, you don't have a Trump bumper sticker,

(28:42):
and you'll take race on time. How many people out
there are like that? If these current surveys and polls
are any indication at all, Trump will win, and he
will win to the point that in the Senate races
we see essentially the same thing. I don't know about you,

(29:04):
but I bet you all the fans of the show
would love to hear Afternoon Delight. So if you could see,
if you could see my face when that song started,
I looked up at Dragon, like, what that death is
going on? What does that have to do with anything? Nothing?

(29:25):
Nothing at all? And then I understand, you know what
you You're in an enabler, not you. You only buy
their love. I earn it, You buy it, you pathetic sloth.
Back there, Just okay, here's what I was going to do.

(29:48):
I was going to go straight to the tariffs as
the segue into the next hour, but I don't have
time for that because I'm not a very good manager
of my time in more ways than one. But let
me just say this about the Senate races, and then
it will get more in depth. For a long time,

(30:11):
and actually somebody pointed out, do you know the debate
was only a week ago? It wasn't two weeks ago?
I know I did. When I saw the text message,
I was like, are you pulling my leg? I did
look at the temps. It does seem like at least
two weeks ago, doesn't it. I mean, we have a debate.
Did they have an assassination attempt? So is there a

(30:31):
debate tomorrow than an assassination attempt to day after? I mean,
I can't keep up with all these things. So for
a long time, and even as recently as a month ago,
in the Senate races, there's there was very little movement whatsoever.
The Democrat candidates, the incumbents, and the newcomers really did

(30:53):
hold modest but consistent leads, even in places where Trump
was a head by double dugis, like in Ohio Montana.
Well guess what that seems to be changing too. I
guess the bottom line I'm trying to get through to
you is this the trend lines are in our favor,

(31:14):
so don't let Because the stronger and the longer the
trend lines remain in our favor, the worst