March 19, 2026 • 43 mins
Should I be panicking? Iran, Israel, and the US are in the middle of a dust-up. Where will this take us? Hosts John and Giuseppe re-assure us the US economy will be ok. Plus, Diversified markets, Alternate Investments, and our new April workshop seminar. The Wise Money Guys.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight for disclosures and more information, and
visit our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys radio Show.
I'm your co host John Scambray and I'm here with
my partner Jaseea Visconti, and we are certified portfolio managers
that love helping people who are retired or about to
retire and manage their money. If you like our show
and have any questions or want to come in for
no obligation consultation, give us a call at nine one
(00:34):
six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. For more information
about our company and about us. You can always visit
our website Wysemoneyguys dot com. Again, that's Whysmoneyguys dot com.
As always anything that you hear on the radio or
advertisements or shows like this, keep in mind that there
(00:56):
are no guarantees when it comes to investing. Always consult
your tax advisor and other professionals for specific investment advice,
and keep in mind that past performance is not a
guarantee of future results. And once again, if you have
any questions or want to set up a consultation with
(01:17):
us for specific investment advice, give us a call at
nine one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. If
you're listening for the first time, a little bit of
our background. Giuseppe and I have been in this industry
a very long time, especially when you combined the two
of our experiences together the business. I mean yeah, I
(01:38):
mean we're talking over fifty years combined, so that makes
us battle tested, John, and clearly we haven't learned enough
to call each other before we come into the office
each morning or do a radio show because we're wearing
the exact same thing, exact same shirt. So if you
(02:00):
want to get a kick out of that, you know,
once the show airs and then turns into our YouTube channel,
you could see us doing this show, which is, you know,
pretty comical.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
But yeah, you can switch on YouTube, John Scambra, I
just have to bescone to you wise money guys, and
you'll be able to see all of our previous postings
and shorts and catch up.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
And lastly, this show is sponsored by One Source Wealth Management,
our registered investment advisory firm, and you can also visit
the SEC or FINRA for more disclosures on us and
our license is SEC number three one nine zero seven eight.
So we got a pretty good.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
Fun stuff out of all that information. Is oil, right,
these are the big things as straight of horn moves. Yeah,
I don't know if we're pronouncing it right, but or
move that's alre we pronounce it, and private credit and
these are all being stressed right now. So we'll touch
base on that throughout the different segments. Some thoughts, you know,
(03:15):
where where this can take things, How it can affect
the overall economy, the stock markets, the gas pump, especially
here in California, how it relates to your investments, and
how it's impacting you know, and what we look for
look out for for our clients specifically.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
Yeah, and I like the question that would really be
a good basis for this show today. It came from
our our radio show producer, Should I panic or should
we panic?
Speaker 3 (03:47):
He said, Holy crap? Should picking? John said no? And
then I replied, definitely for California gas prices.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
Yeah, So that will be a lot of what we're
sharing because quite frankly, you know, if you're working with
the right I guess professionals and have the right strategy
and and proper diversification, and and you're not over invested
in in any particular thing or category, you wouldn't be
(04:19):
panicking at all. And just to set the stage, I
believe that this is any sort of major dips and
we've we're down about five.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
We're not that far down.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
That's that's what's funny. We're pretty close.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
To the all time highs is what it is. It
seems worse than what it is, and it's more so
because of the Magnificent Seven who were who was a
shining light in the past three years has not been
shining very bright lately, and so people have been filling
the pinch on that and then everything, you know, you
(04:55):
turn on the news, it just seems everything's dire.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Yeah, we really needed I mean it's hard to especially
when you're going it alone, especially when you're retired. And
you know, we met with a person who came to
our seminar last week yesterday, and and admittedly.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
There you go again, yesterday or last week? Are we
in next week?
Speaker 2 (05:17):
Yeah? Well, I don't know why I always feel like
that we should just switch to Sundays, is because then
that's officially next week.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
Next week.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Yeah, I never get that straight. But reality is is,
here's a person contummating retirement and already admittedly by them
they don't keep a watchful eye on their investments.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
Yeah, I don't know exactly what's going on and diving
into their statements and kind of what's what.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
And so to lay fears a point that you were
making is, yeah, the market's really only down about five percent.
When I say the market, I'm talking about the stock market.
Been a little bit of movement in the bond market
with some fears of you know, energy impacting inflation, which
would then keep you know, the government that the Fed
(06:08):
in this case, from trying to manipulate short term interest
rates where they would leave them the same or dare
I say it, even possibly increase short term you know,
lending rates from the federal government. And so that's why
you get a pullback in this situation when you see
oil go drastically higher, and then you also then start
(06:31):
extrapulating that into something bigger like, oh, we're going to
have inflation. But the reality is, and California aside, is
that you know, you're talking fifty six, fifty to sixty
cents a gallon, you know, increase, but still way lower
than some of the previous times where we've had some
(06:52):
big geopolitical, some big confrontations in the Middle East.
Speaker 3 (06:57):
Twenty twenty two is the last time we've had oil
prices and then we saw uh I saw that at
the pump as well, where LA was selling a gallon
of gas I think for like seven bucks. And actually
it's touched that. I've sawn some things on social media
and l A. I haven't personally seen it. I've seen
it locally get up to in the six dollar range
(07:18):
for especially premium gas.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Yeah, the reality is is that California is very different
than the rest of the nation. We are we are
an exporter. Again. I watched and read a lot on
oil on on well this week since it's still this week,
(07:42):
and you know, we're going to be a net exporter
of oil. So this, this oil restrictions and flow restrictions
and movement restrictions has zero impact on our needs in
the US. And yet you would think that, you know,
(08:03):
it still is you know some of the previous times
where the movement and restriction of oil movement in the
Middle East, you know, did have a drastic impact on
our gas prices. But that's not the case right now.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
Well it does, right, I mean, even though we're a
net exporter, what's going on in the Middle East and
we see oil and the price of oil is just
what it's projected. Right, Something goes on, there's a tanker
that got attacked and boom, it goes up. Right, it's
not calculating, well, we lost this many barrows of oil,
(08:38):
so therefore it's going to go down three. It's all projection,
and it's really the speculation, and it's it's the straight
of or moves. And when is it going to freely
flow again? That's really the question. That's really what's holding
and restricting and putting pressure on the price of oil
therefore the price of energy and the gas pump and
(08:59):
what you see at the gas pumps. It's when is
it going to freely flow again? And we don't have
to worry about the threat of something, whether it's a
some sort of attack from somewhere right, and and numbers wise,
the strait of Hormuze supplies being closed down, it's basically
losing twenty million barrels a day, that's what it amounts to. Right.
(09:22):
So the I i e. A I A E I
AE Can I buy? Can I buy A? Bel A
E I owe you?
Speaker 2 (09:31):
I E A right International Energy Association I E A. Yeah,
yeah you got it? Are you okay? Yeah? I'm okay?
Are you are you? Yes? Yes? I owe you.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
They released four hundred million barrels and so what is
that equate to. It's about twenty days relief. So when
you see the interest rates go up and the price
of barrel go up, what the market is saying is
it believes that they don't think this is going to
be solved in the next twenty days. They think it's
going to take This thing's going to drag out longer.
(10:07):
And that's why you see doesn't necessarily mean that oil
tanker got caught up and the straight of her moves.
But then you take the data of or net exporter,
which puts us in a good place. But just like stocks,
if a company comes out and they have their earnings
call and they say, oh, blah blah blah blah blah,
we're implementing artificial intelligence or we're going to develop our
(10:30):
own artificial intelligence chip boom, that stock the next day
is going to start flying because of what it could
be with this new technology. So same thing with oil.
Oil spiking up and you see the ten year treasury
spike up interest rates right and affecting the bomb market
because of well we heard of an attack on a
tanker straight of her moves is still bottled up, it's
(10:53):
not freely flowing. Is it going to okay that i
EA came out and said we're going to release more
oil to circumvent right? The problem, Well, the elevation in
the price of oil right now is saying, well, we
don't believe it's going to take just twenty days for
to resolve. It could take thirty days or longer than that.
And that's really the unknown. How long will this be
(11:15):
really resolved? Right? Is it going to be a couple
of weeks? Is it going to be much longer than that?
And then how much stress does that put on the market.
And we can talk about in our next segment kind
of what that is going to be doing and what
it's taken place in the market reaction and showing financial
cracks in other area.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
Again, I think in a lot of these situations, you know,
ultimately it helps the world. The reality is we don't
need Iranian oil, we don't want Iranian oil. The world
should not be buying Iranian oil. You know what's interesting
is right through the straight of horror moves is Chinese
(11:53):
oil tankers are still flowing freely. And so if that
doesn't make you realize that China is a sure start adversary,
more so.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
Starting, I mean they they were backing and helping Iran, right,
they had agreements with Iran. So yeah, not not overly
surprising so to me.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
As as as you say, as this UH gets longer
and more, I think the the prices on fear of inflation,
fear of a bigger, longer conflict, will knock stock prices
down across the board. And that's why I believe that
(12:34):
again this I one hundred percent believe that this isn't
going to be a ten year Afghanistan type you know
war Temperara. And if you look on how markets reacted,
and we'll talk more about how markets reacted and why,
I think that's a good sign. When we come back,
(12:55):
diversify your portfolio by calling nine six nine six seven
thirty five hundred and we were talking about, you know,
really the most current economic things going on. And why
I say economic because that's what this show is about
how these crises and this is just another crisis, and
(13:17):
a long list of crises, you know, over the last
seventy five years. I mean, if we go back to
the nineteen forties, you know, when we were basically in
World War Two, and obviously there was crises even before that,
but really since World War Two, gosh, there's been dozens
(13:38):
and most of the time, and what people don't know,
but this is easily found, is that when when the thing,
whatever the thing is, initially happens, it causes a pullback
because of panic, because of uncertainty, short term concerns and
(14:00):
the worry that they might be long term concerns. But
most of the data, and again you can find this
by just searching.
Speaker 3 (14:09):
We actually talked about in our last segment. Yeah, sixty
four percent of the time out of the twelve you.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Mean our last weeks.
Speaker 3 (14:16):
Oh, you haven't talked about it yet. I mean there
are four segments today, so last segment would be the
one we just finished, yes, last week's show. Yeah, we
went over some data of the twelve May there's been
a lot more conflicts, but the ones that the US
have actually been directly involved when involved in deploying our
own military sixty four percent of the time. It turned
(14:39):
out to be a positive market reaction at the end
of the year. Short term was temporary volatility and some pullback,
but then it ended up becoming positive.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
And that's really what I believe. This is. I think
there's specific areas You'll be sixty four percent right and
I'll be sixty four percent right. You're right. But you know, again,
a lot of investing is following the conditions that especially
when you first start putting money in or adding money in,
(15:11):
or moving money off the sidelines, it's based on what
currently is happening. And if you take what's currently happening
and then move money based on that, whether it's positive
or negative. The problem is is that most people tend
to turn around and then react and overreact based off
another short term based off emotion. So to me, this
(15:35):
is and as and as we were setting up what
we were going to talk about today, not a time
to panic and take this potentially short term event, even
if it's long term, let's just say that it does
go more to boots back on the ground.
Speaker 3 (15:51):
Well, Iraq war, how long are that last war?
Speaker 2 (15:54):
Or But I think the fear is in Russia, Ukraine
right now being put in four years in.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
But even that that Afghanistan was tenures. That's that's yes,
and Afghanistan were directly involved in. But the Iraq War
was more of a I don't want to say glamorous
because that's not really the right word for war, but
I mean, I I clearly remember in like desert storm, right,
I mean you saw the stuff on TV and bombs
and missiles flying and everything, and you're like, wow, this
(16:24):
is this is crazy, But it ended up being a
positive year at the end of the year with the
stock market. So yeah, sound advice. Don't react based off
of your initial emotions and panic and then take action
based off of those panic and initial emotions of everything
that you're seeing on TV right now, because the TV
(16:44):
and the news is going to glamorize everything and say,
oh my gosh, because bad news sells. You have to
look at the data, you know. But if if oil
it sustains one hundred dollars a barrel, let's say, and
that sustains for a period of time, it will have
an impact.
Speaker 2 (17:03):
Right. It's inflationary first.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
We've had that in twenty twenty two. But at the
same time, in twenty twenty two, we were battling inflation,
really bad inflate. The globe was battling inflation, and we
were battling inflation like we haven't seen since the seventies,
and the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates like crazy.
There was a lot of people calling for a recession
(17:25):
in twenty two and twenty three. We didn't have it.
We had a bear market. It definitely was uncomfortable, and
also with the worst stock market that we had since
two thousand and eight and the worst bond market that
we had in forty years. But then we had twenty three,
twenty four and twenty five great years in the stock market.
And I wish I could measure just the the client,
(17:49):
our client emotions during twenty twenty two and then how
long it took them to flip flop and say, how
can we get into in video, How can we get
more aggressive? How can I my portfolio more aggressive than
what it is right?
Speaker 2 (18:02):
And that's another thing that I wouldn't do here is
run out and go and bet now that the rise
in stocks like Chevron or Exon or Occidental or oil
Base or any of them, tanker stocks whatever. I wouldn't
(18:24):
go buying here at these prices, thinking that you're going
to see another leg up of twenty thirty percent. In fact,
I believe you might see a major pullback in the
immediate prices. Because what's interesting is oil, and at least
(18:44):
the commodity side of it. Oil per barrel will go
up like a rocket, but it does come down like
a feather.
Speaker 3 (18:51):
So well, we saw actually in one day it was
like what one hundred and twenty and then went down
into the eighties.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
But stocks, on the other hand, go both up and
down in similar speed. And so and that's one of
the things that I mentioned that I would talk about
right now is you know, when we saw, like you said,
the oil pulled back from basically where it is now
one hundred to about you know, the low eighties. Actually
(19:19):
it even touched seventy nine. You know, we had twenty
We had had a eight hundred down dow day, and
then we had an eight hundred dow up day. And
so you know, they go up. Stocks can go up
and down at the same speed, whereas oil tends to
go up and down, except for you know this particular
(19:43):
case where you know, again it's it's it's an event
that could make it be that wild. The straight of
horror moves being closed closed, the straight of horror moves
now being open. So again I would call it. And
because the breath of of the of the downturn is
wider than just energy stocks. Uh. It's now impacting airlines
(20:09):
and and and other uh companies. It's infecting the the
tech sector, so on and so forth. That's where you
can find quality that isn't really dependent on what energy
prices are, but but are still reacting and going down
with the overall drawdown of the market.
Speaker 3 (20:30):
And to me, that's a buying if there's a company
or a business that's not fundamentally tied to these current
events that are going on in the world. It's just
a byproduct of the market as itself going and people
just profit taking because of fear. Yeah, those those are
areas to look into and say, all right, now it's
(20:52):
maybe I've been watching this company or the stock of
a company and it was a little lofty. Now it's
pulled back. Has nothing to do with oil, has nothing
to do with energy. This is a better entry point
for me.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
What an opportunity for pipeline companies too, I mean, think
about that if you've just not wanted to spend the
money you're you're an OPEC nation or you're a Middle
East country that that primarily gets its revenue from oil
and you've been reliant on the transport of that oil
via ship in the in the straight Ofhorn moves there.
(21:25):
What a good time and a good reason. You know,
if your main customer is you know, other parts of
Asia or Africa, you know, or or or even parts
of Europe, I would build a pipeline, right, think about it,
because then you take you take the control that Iran
(21:47):
as clearly has right now and should not. I mean,
come on, for forty seven years we've led a terrorist
country control. You know, the one of the most important
resource of our lives of humanities existed so far. I
think it was a choice because obviously or not, even
(22:09):
with new tech, new green sources of energy bar none,
oil is still the number one way to the black
gold that we power everything. And we've let well, we've
seen most evil empire' you've.
Speaker 3 (22:24):
Seen it with Germany. Right, Germany did away a few
years back, right or even longer than that, did away
with oil and coal and whatever and tried to go
towards green and then they had a cold winter and
they were worried because then they shut down all these
class right, and they were panicking and needed it. And
then they were dependent on uh, you know, energy being
(22:46):
imported from Russia. But then Russia was an adversary and
having some conflict with them because of Ukraine and Crimea
and all that.
Speaker 2 (22:53):
So so then what did all these countries fire up?
Speaker 3 (22:57):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (22:58):
Right, it's called the dirtiest energy of all, even though
we call it clean coal because at least we do
produce it cleaner as far as how we mine it.
Speaker 3 (23:08):
And then well, in the technology, right we have well
we you know, deploy and implement a bunch of technology
to create more efficiency. And I mean I've talked about
this before, but there's like these drones that fly around
refineries and plants that detect leaks methane leaks, right, and
(23:31):
then they can just target these different areas whereas before
we didn't have that. And we have a lot more
red tape and guidelines than these other especially just through
world countries that are producing energy.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
Right, yeah, absolutely, So you know I would also use
this opportunity to potentially take some profit off the table.
I mean, especially again if you're sitting on a chevron
and you've watched chevron go from the one thirties to
two hundred almost, I would lock some of that in.
I'd take some the position off the table.
Speaker 3 (24:02):
And if you don't, if you don't know on a
more macro pictures, meet with somebody like us, you know,
reach out to reach out to us and say like, hey,
I have some of these positions, which which ones should
I take profit? Or should I rebalance? Is this even
aligning with my financial plan and my overall goals and timeline?
Do you even have a plan? Right? And those things
(24:24):
those are the starting points, right, do you have a plan?
Do you know what's in your portfolio? And if you
don't know what's in your portfolio, that's a starting point,
and then align that, put a plan together and align
that and then figure out this is a great time
to rebalance.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
Yeah, that the particular person, and we'll talk more about,
you know, some of the things we discovered and some
of the basic mistakes that that people make with their
portfolios when we come back, and if you like the
way we do things versus how you're currently doing things,
or maybe how things are currently being done for you,
(24:57):
again called nine one SI seven thirty five hundred because
again the most important thing to have right now is
professional guidance, and that guidance should be based on your
goals and objectives that are discovered and put in place
through the planning process, because I believe again this is
(25:18):
a big opportunity to rebalance, to lock in profit, to
find investments that still have value, investments that what we
really like when it comes to investing, ones that pay
a dividend or interest. So if the market is flat,
(25:38):
whether it's stocks or bonds, but you have interest and dividends,
then you're still making money or at least have cash
flow from your portfolio. And when you're taking income in
retirement from portfolio, it's crucial in our opinions to have
that cash flow come from dividends and interests versus I'm
(26:01):
hoping that the price of my investment goes up, then
I sell a little bit, and then I take that
out as income, and that just is a lot tougher
position pun intended to be in versus having investments that
pay a good dividend, were bought at a good value,
(26:23):
or have a good cube on or interest rate. And
there's incredible fixed income and alternative investments out there now
that we would love to tell you about and show
you how those can help diversify, truly diversify your portfolio
by calling nine six ninety six seven thirty five hundred.
(26:44):
So I was mentioning the person that we met with
this week and that came to our seminar, and one
of the things that never ceases to amaze me is
this person had well over one hundred different bonds, positions
on funds and stock funds. And when you have that many,
(27:08):
not only does your advisor, in my guestimate, not know
what's in those or is keeping track of hundreds of
different investments, and then each client has thousands of variations
of those hundreds of different investments. I mean, that's just
not the way, in our opinion, to do things well.
(27:31):
It should be.
Speaker 3 (27:31):
And what we found is that he didn't have any
alternatives within his acid classes. You just had stocks and
bonds and some cash. So he didn't have any alternative
investments in there, which we feel is important, especially during
times like these, when there's something going on around the world,
there's some uncertainty out there, and we saw in twenty
twenty two where both bonds and stocks were down by
(27:52):
double digits, and alternatives really shine.
Speaker 2 (27:55):
Alternatives like the one, some of the ones we really
liked were still up.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
They shined in twenty twenty two, even though he had
over one hundred different positions and is or.
Speaker 2 (28:06):
And you know what the other So that we believe
that's a mistake to be to have way too many
positions that you can't keep track of, your advisor can't
keep track of, and it gets to a point you
don't even know what you have. And especially we find
that when you have a ton of different bond funds
and stock funds or bond ETFs or stock ETFs and
(28:31):
your paying and advisory fee, This person on a seven
figure account is paying one in a quarter. He used
to be one, and then when he re climbed threshold,
it went down to one. Our our fee for the
same size account was point seventy five, by the way.
(28:51):
But interestingly, and again another mistake that we think people
have and make is you have all the money you
need for your lifetime potentially, and your paying an advisory
fee to manage an unmanageable amount of different investments, and
on top of that, a good chunk hundreds of thousands
(29:14):
of dollars are in funds and you don't realize that
you have an embedded expense you know, potentially.
Speaker 3 (29:22):
Uh uh within the funds itself costing.
Speaker 2 (29:24):
You money and the advisors fee on top of it.
And some of the funds we pulled up, you know,
had almost what our advisory fee is annually also included
in their fee inside of the fund. So in essence,
you're you're basically, you know, over paying for advisory services
(29:49):
by also having funds when you have enough and and
have put yourself in a position to have a custom
portfolio of individual dual positions that don't have an embedded
expense that you're basically paying for on top of the
advisory fee.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
Right, breath, you gotta take a breath there, I do.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
I'm going to take some water. But I mean, we
see it over and over and over, and I knew it.
Speaker 3 (30:18):
I think the sad thing that we see them, you know,
from time to time is somebody who has a meaningful
account that they can essentially create their own mutual fund
with direct investment, meaning in individual bonds, and they have
primarily just funds in their portfolio, and they have seven
figure account which doesn't make any sense at all, touch
(30:40):
and base back on oil and then more specifically on
the US because you know, Trump's has also mentioned that
we can release some.
Speaker 2 (30:53):
Of our reserves SEV.
Speaker 3 (30:57):
Yeah. So, our our strategic petroleum reserve currently holds four
hundred and fifteen million barrels. Right in twenty twenty three,
it was three hundred and forty seven million, So it's
it's gone up from right right there. It's not at
the top. If it was at the top, it'd be
seven hundred and fourteen million barrels.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
And Trump was right when they when they had that,
they drew down, drew it down, and oil went. Oil
was forty dollars a barrel. They should have filled it
back up. Now if you fill it back up, it's
one hundred dollars a barrel and a much bigger cost
to tax payers.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
I mean, the average acquisition costs per barrel of the
strategic recurrent reserves yep twenty nine dollars and seventy cents
a barrel.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
Yeah. So yeah, because some of it has been there
for decades.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
Yeah, right, Well in twenty twenty when oil was like crashed, Yeah,
because there was no dimate at the time ever, that's
the time to fill it up the teens.
Speaker 2 (31:50):
If I recall, yeah, I mean because too bad, I
can't do oil.
Speaker 3 (31:54):
You know, a few barrels of oil in my backyard, yeah.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
Right now at one hundred dollars a barrel.
Speaker 3 (32:01):
But if you know, with presidential approval, oil you know,
being released, it takes thirteen days to reach the market, right,
So it's not like you just turn on a switch
in all of a Senators.
Speaker 2 (32:10):
It's just the speculation of there will be additional supply
that starts impacting oil prices.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
Yes, exactly, exactly, just like the opposite.
Speaker 2 (32:20):
Just even though you know supply maybe now is starting
to be impacted, but we're off set. Still, the speculation is,
oh my god, we're going to run out of oil
and so therefore, which is just absolutely ridiculous. North America
has the largest deposits of oil, more so than any
(32:43):
other place in the world, proven studied by many different
agencies and resources. You can look it up and confirm it.
Yet you know, here we are reacting, our stocks are reacting,
you know, everything is overreacting in my opinion for an
area of the world that we don't need a drip
(33:04):
of anything from.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
Luckily, luckily because it hasn't it hasn't always been that
way it was, and that it wasn't.
Speaker 2 (33:10):
Well, we've for millions of years the resource was there,
but for you know, decades, we wouldn't allow our country
to use the resources that we had. And then that's
where we ended up, and thank god for Trump, ended up,
you know, with all these terrible deals around the world
where because we wouldn't you know, heck, we got rid
(33:31):
of all of our factories, we got rid of all
of our drilling, we got rid of all of our
you know, crucial minerals and natural resources and metals, and
relied on every other nation to produce things for us.
It's amazing that our unemployment you know, didn't go through
the roof over the last you know, to and stay
(33:55):
elevated when we got rid of in America basically.
Speaker 3 (33:58):
You know why, because a big portion of contributing factor
to get the unemployment low was was a lot of oh.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
Government jobs, exactly government jobs, right. We replaced private jobs
with government jobs, which was pretty good news. What two
or just a couple of weeks ago, where you know,
the jobs that were created were private sector and the
reduction the jobs lost were government sector where it costs
(34:24):
taxpayers money. So the government produces no output, no economic benefit.
It is a detriment to economic output and benefits to
private private parties and growth and Americans. And so that
was that was that was nice to see, right, And
(34:45):
if you like the way we do things versus how
you're currently doing things, or maybe how things are currently
being done for you called nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred, you'd like to come in for
a no obligation consultation. And and by the way, if
you're about to retire, super important that you do that
before you retire, or if you're already retired and want
(35:08):
a second opinion or want to update your financial plan,
or maybe you don't even have a financial plan called
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. So
the other real pressure right now, other than obviously oil
causing you know, potentially inflation so on and so forth, well,
(35:32):
it's the credit markets.
Speaker 3 (35:33):
An immediate, immediate, immediate concern pressure on cost, especially if
you commute a lot for work or maybe you transport
things for a living. Right, there's the immediate impact right
at the gas pumps. Private credit It's been on the TV.
I don't watch much TV, but it's all over and
(35:55):
it's it's starting to show kind of a stress crack
in the financial system. About two trillion of assets center
management and retail now, which is about one third of
US direct lending and private credit all up, just means
is just lending companies lending to other companies right private.
(36:16):
So instead of companies getting lending from banks, traditional banks,
it's going through other private entities to get that money.
But start we've been seeing a rising of the defaults.
So a couple names out there, Tricolor, First Brands, maybe
doesn't mean anything to you. But where it's starting to
(36:39):
create some stress amongst retail or consumers is the exposure
to private credit investments. We actually have some private credit investments.
I reached out to our counterpart who is tied to that,
saying like, hey, how much within the investments that we
(37:00):
have that some of our clients are exposed to. How
much is it impacting it? He says, not much at all.
It's not in the same areas as some of these
other institutions that are seeing some of the defaults and pressure. Nevertheless,
it is building the two bigger ones that people might
have heard of, especially one of them, Blue Owl, which
(37:24):
is big in the alternative space and private credit and
private debt. And then Blackrock which Blackrock is very large,
is one of the largest, you know, investment institutions out there.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
The largest, actually black Rock, I mean as far as
au M and yeah, I think it is.
Speaker 3 (37:40):
Yeah, I think it's the biggest. And then Vanguard. But
they're gating funds, meaning that people who have or investment
firms that have investments within private credit they're trying to liquidate.
And then they're putting a stop and saying or you
can say or they're telling investors you can only liquidate
(38:03):
x amount. The rest of it is locked up for
now until further notice. So that's taking place right now.
JP Morgan is starting to mark down software my expose
loans and this is where you're seeing a lot of
this stress happening. And then you're hearing, you know, Jamie Diamond,
(38:24):
who's the CEO for JP Morgan, another gentleman, Lloyd Blank
find is coming out and they're putting, you know, some
fear out there in the markets. Now, how big is
this going to build to, how is it going to impact?
Is it going to create a systemic risk to the
market along with the oil pressure that has taking place
(38:44):
in the market. We'll come to find out. Jamie Diamond
is saying, well, that's a cockroach. Wherever you find a cockroach,
there's others. But he said that in twenty twenty two.
He said that in twenty twenty three he was calling
for a ton of recession. Fine is coming out and
saying this is uh, this looks like a precursor, like
much like two thousand and eight. Same thing with him.
(39:07):
If you look at his past track record of what
he called, you know, crying wolf, it's mixed. He's he's
called some corrections and bear markets within cryptocurrency, but then
when it comes to the stock market and economy when
you look back, you know, in twenty twenty two also
he was also calling for a recession as well. Never happened,
(39:27):
So I would take some of that with a grain
of salt. Again, going back to the first segment where
John was saying, you know, don't overreact, don't panic, right
if you're on if you're looking at CNBC, MSN, MSNBC
or Fox or any of these you know, financial networks
that are going out there and they're putting some of
these figures out there and they're saying recession or two
(39:49):
thousand and eight or whatever. Don't make a quick reaction, right,
especially if you're not invested directly in these segments that
are being very you know, impacted. But it is good
to pay attention to, right. You don't want to be so,
you know, relaxed or complacent that well, oh Marcus down
two percent, or you know, I'm just gonna go buy
(40:10):
a bunch of tech stocks because that killed it the
last three years. And here's my opportunity now I did.
I wasn't able to make one hundred percent of my
tech stocks, you know when everything was booming because I
waited too long. So now I'm gonna do it now. No,
it's not a good time.
Speaker 2 (40:23):
Really.
Speaker 3 (40:24):
What it's a good time for if you haven't done it,
like we talked about earlier, is have a plan. If
you don't have a plan, and if you don't know
where to start, that's where you give us a call,
a nine one six, nine six, seven thirty five hundred
or a review, second set of eyes.
Speaker 2 (40:38):
Hey, here's my portfolio.
Speaker 3 (40:39):
Had these investments for a long time, or I've managed them,
or or I've had them managed, but I don't even
know what's inside of them. Are they aligned with my plan?
That's where you want to come to people like ourselves,
John and myself or another professional. We prefer that you
guys come to us, obviously, but you you meet up
with a professional to have a another set of eyes
(41:01):
to say, yeah, here's where you want to reposition, or
you're a little overweight in this. One of the areas.
For example, sectors that are getting hit because of the
private credit stress is financials. So you're seeing financials. It
took a twelve percent drop recently and they're getting hit.
Do you bust out of them? Do you keep some
of the names or buy more right? Or do you
(41:23):
buy more because maybe they're going down but they really
don't have much exposure to private credit or on their
balance sheet. So these are the things that you need
to look into. And this is where having professional help
really makes the difference. Instead of making emotional reactions and
then taking action to those emotional reactions.
Speaker 2 (41:44):
I'm going to take a drink by the way. For
more information, As Joseeppe said, you can call us, but
we are and have scheduled our next seminar. So if
you're listening in the Bay area, and also give us
a call. It's going to be at the end of April,
(42:05):
and always on a Wednesday. And I don't know off
the top of my head what the last Wednesday of
April is, but it is. What is the last twenty ninth?
It is the twenty ninth, so the.
Speaker 3 (42:18):
Very it's the second to the last day of the month.
Speaker 2 (42:21):
Actually, Yeah, So to come see us in person and
see why we think we're the best mouse trap, especially
for these turbulent times. You can call and get registered
and signed up, and who should call.
Speaker 3 (42:37):
It's the early bird registration.
Speaker 2 (42:39):
This is the early bird registration because normally we announced
it about a month out, weeks few weeks, so we're
about six weeks out. But nevertheless, if you're close to retirement,
like the person we just met with that went to
our previous seminar that just there, there's so many opportunities
in his portfolio for rebalancing and getting back on tracks,
(43:04):
playing and simplifying and so on and so forth. We'll
show you how we do things and it will be
a good use of your time. We know that from feedback,
so we'd love to see you there again. Called nine
one six nine six seven thirty five hundred to come
in for a no obligation consultation or sign up for
our April workshop that's going to be in the East
(43:26):
Bay area. So hope you enjoyed listening to the Wise
money guys. Have a wonderful Saturday, and come back and
listen to us again next weekend. Bye all, have a
great weekend.
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight for disclosures and more information, and
visit our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys radio Show.
I'm your co host John Scambray and I'm here with
my partner Jaseea Visconti, and we are certified portfolio managers
that love helping people who are retired or about to
retire and manage their money. If you like our show
and have any questions or want to come in for
no obligation consultation, give us a call at nine one
(00:34):
six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. For more information
about our company and about us. You can always visit
our website Wysemoneyguys dot com. Again, that's Whysmoneyguys dot com.
As always anything that you hear on the radio or
advertisements or shows like this, keep in mind that there
(00:56):
are no guarantees when it comes to investing. Always consult
your tax advisor and other professionals for specific investment advice,
and keep in mind that past performance is not a
guarantee of future results. And once again, if you have
any questions or want to set up a consultation with
(01:17):
us for specific investment advice, give us a call at
nine one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. If
you're listening for the first time, a little bit of
our background. Giuseppe and I have been in this industry
a very long time, especially when you combined the two
of our experiences together the business. I mean yeah, I
(01:38):
mean we're talking over fifty years combined, so that makes
us battle tested, John, and clearly we haven't learned enough
to call each other before we come into the office
each morning or do a radio show because we're wearing
the exact same thing, exact same shirt. So if you
(02:00):
want to get a kick out of that, you know,
once the show airs and then turns into our YouTube channel,
you could see us doing this show, which is, you know,
pretty comical.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
But yeah, you can switch on YouTube, John Scambra, I
just have to bescone to you wise money guys, and
you'll be able to see all of our previous postings
and shorts and catch up.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
And lastly, this show is sponsored by One Source Wealth Management,
our registered investment advisory firm, and you can also visit
the SEC or FINRA for more disclosures on us and
our license is SEC number three one nine zero seven eight.
So we got a pretty good.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
Fun stuff out of all that information. Is oil, right,
these are the big things as straight of horn moves. Yeah,
I don't know if we're pronouncing it right, but or
move that's alre we pronounce it, and private credit and
these are all being stressed right now. So we'll touch
base on that throughout the different segments. Some thoughts, you know,
(03:15):
where where this can take things, How it can affect
the overall economy, the stock markets, the gas pump, especially
here in California, how it relates to your investments, and
how it's impacting you know, and what we look for
look out for for our clients specifically.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
Yeah, and I like the question that would really be
a good basis for this show today. It came from
our our radio show producer, Should I panic or should
we panic?
Speaker 3 (03:47):
He said, Holy crap? Should picking? John said no? And
then I replied, definitely for California gas prices.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
Yeah, So that will be a lot of what we're
sharing because quite frankly, you know, if you're working with
the right I guess professionals and have the right strategy
and and proper diversification, and and you're not over invested
in in any particular thing or category, you wouldn't be
(04:19):
panicking at all. And just to set the stage, I
believe that this is any sort of major dips and
we've we're down about five.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
We're not that far down.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
That's that's what's funny. We're pretty close.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
To the all time highs is what it is. It
seems worse than what it is, and it's more so
because of the Magnificent Seven who were who was a
shining light in the past three years has not been
shining very bright lately, and so people have been filling
the pinch on that and then everything, you know, you
(04:55):
turn on the news, it just seems everything's dire.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Yeah, we really needed I mean it's hard to especially
when you're going it alone, especially when you're retired. And
you know, we met with a person who came to
our seminar last week yesterday, and and admittedly.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
There you go again, yesterday or last week? Are we
in next week?
Speaker 2 (05:17):
Yeah? Well, I don't know why I always feel like
that we should just switch to Sundays, is because then
that's officially next week.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
Next week.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Yeah, I never get that straight. But reality is is,
here's a person contummating retirement and already admittedly by them
they don't keep a watchful eye on their investments.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
Yeah, I don't know exactly what's going on and diving
into their statements and kind of what's what.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
And so to lay fears a point that you were
making is, yeah, the market's really only down about five percent.
When I say the market, I'm talking about the stock market.
Been a little bit of movement in the bond market
with some fears of you know, energy impacting inflation, which
would then keep you know, the government that the Fed
(06:08):
in this case, from trying to manipulate short term interest
rates where they would leave them the same or dare
I say it, even possibly increase short term you know,
lending rates from the federal government. And so that's why
you get a pullback in this situation when you see
oil go drastically higher, and then you also then start
(06:31):
extrapulating that into something bigger like, oh, we're going to
have inflation. But the reality is, and California aside, is
that you know, you're talking fifty six, fifty to sixty
cents a gallon, you know, increase, but still way lower
than some of the previous times where we've had some
(06:52):
big geopolitical, some big confrontations in the Middle East.
Speaker 3 (06:57):
Twenty twenty two is the last time we've had oil
prices and then we saw uh I saw that at
the pump as well, where LA was selling a gallon
of gas I think for like seven bucks. And actually
it's touched that. I've sawn some things on social media
and l A. I haven't personally seen it. I've seen
it locally get up to in the six dollar range
(07:18):
for especially premium gas.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Yeah, the reality is is that California is very different
than the rest of the nation. We are we are
an exporter. Again. I watched and read a lot on
oil on on well this week since it's still this week,
(07:42):
and you know, we're going to be a net exporter
of oil. So this, this oil restrictions and flow restrictions
and movement restrictions has zero impact on our needs in
the US. And yet you would think that, you know,
(08:03):
it still is you know some of the previous times
where the movement and restriction of oil movement in the
Middle East, you know, did have a drastic impact on
our gas prices. But that's not the case right now.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
Well it does, right, I mean, even though we're a
net exporter, what's going on in the Middle East and
we see oil and the price of oil is just
what it's projected. Right, Something goes on, there's a tanker
that got attacked and boom, it goes up. Right, it's
not calculating, well, we lost this many barrows of oil,
(08:38):
so therefore it's going to go down three. It's all projection,
and it's really the speculation, and it's it's the straight
of or moves. And when is it going to freely
flow again? That's really the question. That's really what's holding
and restricting and putting pressure on the price of oil
therefore the price of energy and the gas pump and
(08:59):
what you see at the gas pumps. It's when is
it going to freely flow again? And we don't have
to worry about the threat of something, whether it's a
some sort of attack from somewhere right, and and numbers wise,
the strait of Hormuze supplies being closed down, it's basically
losing twenty million barrels a day, that's what it amounts to. Right.
(09:22):
So the I i e. A I A E I
AE Can I buy? Can I buy A? Bel A
E I owe you?
Speaker 2 (09:31):
I E A right International Energy Association I E A. Yeah,
yeah you got it? Are you okay? Yeah? I'm okay?
Are you are you? Yes? Yes? I owe you.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
They released four hundred million barrels and so what is
that equate to. It's about twenty days relief. So when
you see the interest rates go up and the price
of barrel go up, what the market is saying is
it believes that they don't think this is going to
be solved in the next twenty days. They think it's
going to take This thing's going to drag out longer.
(10:07):
And that's why you see doesn't necessarily mean that oil
tanker got caught up and the straight of her moves.
But then you take the data of or net exporter,
which puts us in a good place. But just like stocks,
if a company comes out and they have their earnings
call and they say, oh, blah blah blah blah blah,
we're implementing artificial intelligence or we're going to develop our
(10:30):
own artificial intelligence chip boom, that stock the next day
is going to start flying because of what it could
be with this new technology. So same thing with oil.
Oil spiking up and you see the ten year treasury
spike up interest rates right and affecting the bomb market
because of well we heard of an attack on a
tanker straight of her moves is still bottled up, it's
(10:53):
not freely flowing. Is it going to okay that i
EA came out and said we're going to release more
oil to circumvent right? The problem, Well, the elevation in
the price of oil right now is saying, well, we
don't believe it's going to take just twenty days for
to resolve. It could take thirty days or longer than that.
And that's really the unknown. How long will this be
(11:15):
really resolved? Right? Is it going to be a couple
of weeks? Is it going to be much longer than that?
And then how much stress does that put on the market.
And we can talk about in our next segment kind
of what that is going to be doing and what
it's taken place in the market reaction and showing financial
cracks in other area.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
Again, I think in a lot of these situations, you know,
ultimately it helps the world. The reality is we don't
need Iranian oil, we don't want Iranian oil. The world
should not be buying Iranian oil. You know what's interesting
is right through the straight of horror moves is Chinese
(11:53):
oil tankers are still flowing freely. And so if that
doesn't make you realize that China is a sure start adversary,
more so.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
Starting, I mean they they were backing and helping Iran, right,
they had agreements with Iran. So yeah, not not overly
surprising so to me.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
As as as you say, as this UH gets longer
and more, I think the the prices on fear of inflation,
fear of a bigger, longer conflict, will knock stock prices
down across the board. And that's why I believe that
(12:34):
again this I one hundred percent believe that this isn't
going to be a ten year Afghanistan type you know
war Temperara. And if you look on how markets reacted,
and we'll talk more about how markets reacted and why,
I think that's a good sign. When we come back,
(12:55):
diversify your portfolio by calling nine six nine six seven
thirty five hundred and we were talking about, you know,
really the most current economic things going on. And why
I say economic because that's what this show is about
how these crises and this is just another crisis, and
(13:17):
a long list of crises, you know, over the last
seventy five years. I mean, if we go back to
the nineteen forties, you know, when we were basically in
World War Two, and obviously there was crises even before that,
but really since World War Two, gosh, there's been dozens
(13:38):
and most of the time, and what people don't know,
but this is easily found, is that when when the thing,
whatever the thing is, initially happens, it causes a pullback
because of panic, because of uncertainty, short term concerns and
(14:00):
the worry that they might be long term concerns. But
most of the data, and again you can find this
by just searching.
Speaker 3 (14:09):
We actually talked about in our last segment. Yeah, sixty
four percent of the time out of the twelve you.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Mean our last weeks.
Speaker 3 (14:16):
Oh, you haven't talked about it yet. I mean there
are four segments today, so last segment would be the
one we just finished, yes, last week's show. Yeah, we
went over some data of the twelve May there's been
a lot more conflicts, but the ones that the US
have actually been directly involved when involved in deploying our
own military sixty four percent of the time. It turned
(14:39):
out to be a positive market reaction at the end
of the year. Short term was temporary volatility and some pullback,
but then it ended up becoming positive.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
And that's really what I believe. This is. I think
there's specific areas You'll be sixty four percent right and
I'll be sixty four percent right. You're right. But you know, again,
a lot of investing is following the conditions that especially
when you first start putting money in or adding money in,
(15:11):
or moving money off the sidelines, it's based on what
currently is happening. And if you take what's currently happening
and then move money based on that, whether it's positive
or negative. The problem is is that most people tend
to turn around and then react and overreact based off
another short term based off emotion. So to me, this
(15:35):
is and as and as we were setting up what
we were going to talk about today, not a time
to panic and take this potentially short term event, even
if it's long term, let's just say that it does
go more to boots back on the ground.
Speaker 3 (15:51):
Well, Iraq war, how long are that last war?
Speaker 2 (15:54):
Or But I think the fear is in Russia, Ukraine
right now being put in four years in.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
But even that that Afghanistan was tenures. That's that's yes,
and Afghanistan were directly involved in. But the Iraq War
was more of a I don't want to say glamorous
because that's not really the right word for war, but
I mean, I I clearly remember in like desert storm, right,
I mean you saw the stuff on TV and bombs
and missiles flying and everything, and you're like, wow, this
(16:24):
is this is crazy, But it ended up being a
positive year at the end of the year with the
stock market. So yeah, sound advice. Don't react based off
of your initial emotions and panic and then take action
based off of those panic and initial emotions of everything
that you're seeing on TV right now, because the TV
(16:44):
and the news is going to glamorize everything and say,
oh my gosh, because bad news sells. You have to
look at the data, you know. But if if oil
it sustains one hundred dollars a barrel, let's say, and
that sustains for a period of time, it will have
an impact.
Speaker 2 (17:03):
Right. It's inflationary first.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
We've had that in twenty twenty two. But at the
same time, in twenty twenty two, we were battling inflation,
really bad inflate. The globe was battling inflation, and we
were battling inflation like we haven't seen since the seventies,
and the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates like crazy.
There was a lot of people calling for a recession
(17:25):
in twenty two and twenty three. We didn't have it.
We had a bear market. It definitely was uncomfortable, and
also with the worst stock market that we had since
two thousand and eight and the worst bond market that
we had in forty years. But then we had twenty three,
twenty four and twenty five great years in the stock market.
And I wish I could measure just the the client,
(17:49):
our client emotions during twenty twenty two and then how
long it took them to flip flop and say, how
can we get into in video, How can we get
more aggressive? How can I my portfolio more aggressive than
what it is right?
Speaker 2 (18:02):
And that's another thing that I wouldn't do here is
run out and go and bet now that the rise
in stocks like Chevron or Exon or Occidental or oil
Base or any of them, tanker stocks whatever. I wouldn't
(18:24):
go buying here at these prices, thinking that you're going
to see another leg up of twenty thirty percent. In fact,
I believe you might see a major pullback in the
immediate prices. Because what's interesting is oil, and at least
(18:44):
the commodity side of it. Oil per barrel will go
up like a rocket, but it does come down like
a feather.
Speaker 3 (18:51):
So well, we saw actually in one day it was
like what one hundred and twenty and then went down
into the eighties.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
But stocks, on the other hand, go both up and
down in similar speed. And so and that's one of
the things that I mentioned that I would talk about
right now is you know, when we saw, like you said,
the oil pulled back from basically where it is now
one hundred to about you know, the low eighties. Actually
(19:19):
it even touched seventy nine. You know, we had twenty
We had had a eight hundred down dow day, and
then we had an eight hundred dow up day. And
so you know, they go up. Stocks can go up
and down at the same speed, whereas oil tends to
go up and down, except for you know this particular
(19:43):
case where you know, again it's it's it's an event
that could make it be that wild. The straight of
horror moves being closed closed, the straight of horror moves
now being open. So again I would call it. And
because the breath of of the of the downturn is
wider than just energy stocks. Uh. It's now impacting airlines
(20:09):
and and and other uh companies. It's infecting the the
tech sector, so on and so forth. That's where you
can find quality that isn't really dependent on what energy
prices are, but but are still reacting and going down
with the overall drawdown of the market.
Speaker 3 (20:30):
And to me, that's a buying if there's a company
or a business that's not fundamentally tied to these current
events that are going on in the world. It's just
a byproduct of the market as itself going and people
just profit taking because of fear. Yeah, those those are
areas to look into and say, all right, now it's
(20:52):
maybe I've been watching this company or the stock of
a company and it was a little lofty. Now it's
pulled back. Has nothing to do with oil, has nothing
to do with energy. This is a better entry point
for me.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
What an opportunity for pipeline companies too, I mean, think
about that if you've just not wanted to spend the
money you're you're an OPEC nation or you're a Middle
East country that that primarily gets its revenue from oil
and you've been reliant on the transport of that oil
via ship in the in the straight Ofhorn moves there.
(21:25):
What a good time and a good reason. You know,
if your main customer is you know, other parts of
Asia or Africa, you know, or or or even parts
of Europe, I would build a pipeline, right, think about it,
because then you take you take the control that Iran
(21:47):
as clearly has right now and should not. I mean,
come on, for forty seven years we've led a terrorist
country control. You know, the one of the most important
resource of our lives of humanities existed so far. I
think it was a choice because obviously or not, even
(22:09):
with new tech, new green sources of energy bar none,
oil is still the number one way to the black
gold that we power everything. And we've let well, we've
seen most evil empire' you've.
Speaker 3 (22:24):
Seen it with Germany. Right, Germany did away a few
years back, right or even longer than that, did away
with oil and coal and whatever and tried to go
towards green and then they had a cold winter and
they were worried because then they shut down all these
class right, and they were panicking and needed it. And
then they were dependent on uh, you know, energy being
(22:46):
imported from Russia. But then Russia was an adversary and
having some conflict with them because of Ukraine and Crimea
and all that.
Speaker 2 (22:53):
So so then what did all these countries fire up?
Speaker 3 (22:57):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (22:58):
Right, it's called the dirtiest energy of all, even though
we call it clean coal because at least we do
produce it cleaner as far as how we mine it.
Speaker 3 (23:08):
And then well, in the technology, right we have well
we you know, deploy and implement a bunch of technology
to create more efficiency. And I mean I've talked about
this before, but there's like these drones that fly around
refineries and plants that detect leaks methane leaks, right, and
(23:31):
then they can just target these different areas whereas before
we didn't have that. And we have a lot more
red tape and guidelines than these other especially just through
world countries that are producing energy.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
Right, yeah, absolutely, So you know I would also use
this opportunity to potentially take some profit off the table.
I mean, especially again if you're sitting on a chevron
and you've watched chevron go from the one thirties to
two hundred almost, I would lock some of that in.
I'd take some the position off the table.
Speaker 3 (24:02):
And if you don't, if you don't know on a
more macro pictures, meet with somebody like us, you know,
reach out to reach out to us and say like, hey,
I have some of these positions, which which ones should
I take profit? Or should I rebalance? Is this even
aligning with my financial plan and my overall goals and timeline?
Do you even have a plan? Right? And those things
(24:24):
those are the starting points, right, do you have a plan?
Do you know what's in your portfolio? And if you
don't know what's in your portfolio, that's a starting point,
and then align that, put a plan together and align
that and then figure out this is a great time
to rebalance.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
Yeah, that the particular person, and we'll talk more about,
you know, some of the things we discovered and some
of the basic mistakes that that people make with their
portfolios when we come back, and if you like the
way we do things versus how you're currently doing things,
or maybe how things are currently being done for you,
(24:57):
again called nine one SI seven thirty five hundred because
again the most important thing to have right now is
professional guidance, and that guidance should be based on your
goals and objectives that are discovered and put in place
through the planning process, because I believe again this is
(25:18):
a big opportunity to rebalance, to lock in profit, to
find investments that still have value, investments that what we
really like when it comes to investing, ones that pay
a dividend or interest. So if the market is flat,
(25:38):
whether it's stocks or bonds, but you have interest and dividends,
then you're still making money or at least have cash
flow from your portfolio. And when you're taking income in
retirement from portfolio, it's crucial in our opinions to have
that cash flow come from dividends and interests versus I'm
(26:01):
hoping that the price of my investment goes up, then
I sell a little bit, and then I take that
out as income, and that just is a lot tougher
position pun intended to be in versus having investments that
pay a good dividend, were bought at a good value,
(26:23):
or have a good cube on or interest rate. And
there's incredible fixed income and alternative investments out there now
that we would love to tell you about and show
you how those can help diversify, truly diversify your portfolio
by calling nine six ninety six seven thirty five hundred.
(26:44):
So I was mentioning the person that we met with
this week and that came to our seminar, and one
of the things that never ceases to amaze me is
this person had well over one hundred different bonds, positions
on funds and stock funds. And when you have that many,
(27:08):
not only does your advisor, in my guestimate, not know
what's in those or is keeping track of hundreds of
different investments, and then each client has thousands of variations
of those hundreds of different investments. I mean, that's just
not the way, in our opinion, to do things well.
(27:31):
It should be.
Speaker 3 (27:31):
And what we found is that he didn't have any
alternatives within his acid classes. You just had stocks and
bonds and some cash. So he didn't have any alternative
investments in there, which we feel is important, especially during
times like these, when there's something going on around the world,
there's some uncertainty out there, and we saw in twenty
twenty two where both bonds and stocks were down by
(27:52):
double digits, and alternatives really shine.
Speaker 2 (27:55):
Alternatives like the one, some of the ones we really
liked were still up.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
They shined in twenty twenty two, even though he had
over one hundred different positions and is or.
Speaker 2 (28:06):
And you know what the other So that we believe
that's a mistake to be to have way too many
positions that you can't keep track of, your advisor can't
keep track of, and it gets to a point you
don't even know what you have. And especially we find
that when you have a ton of different bond funds
and stock funds or bond ETFs or stock ETFs and
(28:31):
your paying and advisory fee, This person on a seven
figure account is paying one in a quarter. He used
to be one, and then when he re climbed threshold,
it went down to one. Our our fee for the
same size account was point seventy five, by the way.
(28:51):
But interestingly, and again another mistake that we think people
have and make is you have all the money you
need for your lifetime potentially, and your paying an advisory
fee to manage an unmanageable amount of different investments, and
on top of that, a good chunk hundreds of thousands
(29:14):
of dollars are in funds and you don't realize that
you have an embedded expense you know, potentially.
Speaker 3 (29:22):
Uh uh within the funds itself costing.
Speaker 2 (29:24):
You money and the advisors fee on top of it.
And some of the funds we pulled up, you know,
had almost what our advisory fee is annually also included
in their fee inside of the fund. So in essence,
you're you're basically, you know, over paying for advisory services
(29:49):
by also having funds when you have enough and and
have put yourself in a position to have a custom
portfolio of individual dual positions that don't have an embedded
expense that you're basically paying for on top of the
advisory fee.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
Right, breath, you gotta take a breath there, I do.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
I'm going to take some water. But I mean, we
see it over and over and over, and I knew it.
Speaker 3 (30:18):
I think the sad thing that we see them, you know,
from time to time is somebody who has a meaningful
account that they can essentially create their own mutual fund
with direct investment, meaning in individual bonds, and they have
primarily just funds in their portfolio, and they have seven
figure account which doesn't make any sense at all, touch
(30:40):
and base back on oil and then more specifically on
the US because you know, Trump's has also mentioned that
we can release some.
Speaker 2 (30:53):
Of our reserves SEV.
Speaker 3 (30:57):
Yeah. So, our our strategic petroleum reserve currently holds four
hundred and fifteen million barrels. Right in twenty twenty three,
it was three hundred and forty seven million, So it's
it's gone up from right right there. It's not at
the top. If it was at the top, it'd be
seven hundred and fourteen million barrels.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
And Trump was right when they when they had that,
they drew down, drew it down, and oil went. Oil
was forty dollars a barrel. They should have filled it
back up. Now if you fill it back up, it's
one hundred dollars a barrel and a much bigger cost
to tax payers.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
I mean, the average acquisition costs per barrel of the
strategic recurrent reserves yep twenty nine dollars and seventy cents
a barrel.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
Yeah. So yeah, because some of it has been there
for decades.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
Yeah, right, Well in twenty twenty when oil was like crashed, Yeah,
because there was no dimate at the time ever, that's
the time to fill it up the teens.
Speaker 2 (31:50):
If I recall, yeah, I mean because too bad, I
can't do oil.
Speaker 3 (31:54):
You know, a few barrels of oil in my backyard, yeah.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
Right now at one hundred dollars a barrel.
Speaker 3 (32:01):
But if you know, with presidential approval, oil you know,
being released, it takes thirteen days to reach the market, right,
So it's not like you just turn on a switch
in all of a Senators.
Speaker 2 (32:10):
It's just the speculation of there will be additional supply
that starts impacting oil prices.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
Yes, exactly, exactly, just like the opposite.
Speaker 2 (32:20):
Just even though you know supply maybe now is starting
to be impacted, but we're off set. Still, the speculation is,
oh my god, we're going to run out of oil
and so therefore, which is just absolutely ridiculous. North America
has the largest deposits of oil, more so than any
(32:43):
other place in the world, proven studied by many different
agencies and resources. You can look it up and confirm it.
Yet you know, here we are reacting, our stocks are reacting,
you know, everything is overreacting in my opinion for an
area of the world that we don't need a drip
(33:04):
of anything from.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
Luckily, luckily because it hasn't it hasn't always been that
way it was, and that it wasn't.
Speaker 2 (33:10):
Well, we've for millions of years the resource was there,
but for you know, decades, we wouldn't allow our country
to use the resources that we had. And then that's
where we ended up, and thank god for Trump, ended up,
you know, with all these terrible deals around the world
where because we wouldn't you know, heck, we got rid
(33:31):
of all of our factories, we got rid of all
of our drilling, we got rid of all of our
you know, crucial minerals and natural resources and metals, and
relied on every other nation to produce things for us.
It's amazing that our unemployment you know, didn't go through
the roof over the last you know, to and stay
(33:55):
elevated when we got rid of in America basically.
Speaker 3 (33:58):
You know why, because a big portion of contributing factor
to get the unemployment low was was a lot of oh.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
Government jobs, exactly government jobs, right. We replaced private jobs
with government jobs, which was pretty good news. What two
or just a couple of weeks ago, where you know,
the jobs that were created were private sector and the
reduction the jobs lost were government sector where it costs
(34:24):
taxpayers money. So the government produces no output, no economic benefit.
It is a detriment to economic output and benefits to
private private parties and growth and Americans. And so that
was that was that was nice to see, right, And
(34:45):
if you like the way we do things versus how
you're currently doing things, or maybe how things are currently
being done for you called nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred, you'd like to come in for
a no obligation consultation. And and by the way, if
you're about to retire, super important that you do that
before you retire, or if you're already retired and want
(35:08):
a second opinion or want to update your financial plan,
or maybe you don't even have a financial plan called
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. So
the other real pressure right now, other than obviously oil
causing you know, potentially inflation so on and so forth, well,
(35:32):
it's the credit markets.
Speaker 3 (35:33):
An immediate, immediate, immediate concern pressure on cost, especially if
you commute a lot for work or maybe you transport
things for a living. Right, there's the immediate impact right
at the gas pumps. Private credit It's been on the TV.
I don't watch much TV, but it's all over and
(35:55):
it's it's starting to show kind of a stress crack
in the financial system. About two trillion of assets center
management and retail now, which is about one third of
US direct lending and private credit all up, just means
is just lending companies lending to other companies right private.
(36:16):
So instead of companies getting lending from banks, traditional banks,
it's going through other private entities to get that money.
But start we've been seeing a rising of the defaults.
So a couple names out there, Tricolor, First Brands, maybe
doesn't mean anything to you. But where it's starting to
(36:39):
create some stress amongst retail or consumers is the exposure
to private credit investments. We actually have some private credit investments.
I reached out to our counterpart who is tied to that,
saying like, hey, how much within the investments that we
(37:00):
have that some of our clients are exposed to. How
much is it impacting it? He says, not much at all.
It's not in the same areas as some of these
other institutions that are seeing some of the defaults and pressure. Nevertheless,
it is building the two bigger ones that people might
have heard of, especially one of them, Blue Owl, which
(37:24):
is big in the alternative space and private credit and
private debt. And then Blackrock which Blackrock is very large,
is one of the largest, you know, investment institutions out there.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
The largest, actually black Rock, I mean as far as
au M and yeah, I think it is.
Speaker 3 (37:40):
Yeah, I think it's the biggest. And then Vanguard. But
they're gating funds, meaning that people who have or investment
firms that have investments within private credit they're trying to liquidate.
And then they're putting a stop and saying or you
can say or they're telling investors you can only liquidate
(38:03):
x amount. The rest of it is locked up for
now until further notice. So that's taking place right now.
JP Morgan is starting to mark down software my expose
loans and this is where you're seeing a lot of
this stress happening. And then you're hearing, you know, Jamie Diamond,
(38:24):
who's the CEO for JP Morgan, another gentleman, Lloyd Blank
find is coming out and they're putting, you know, some
fear out there in the markets. Now, how big is
this going to build to, how is it going to impact?
Is it going to create a systemic risk to the
market along with the oil pressure that has taking place
(38:44):
in the market. We'll come to find out. Jamie Diamond
is saying, well, that's a cockroach. Wherever you find a cockroach,
there's others. But he said that in twenty twenty two.
He said that in twenty twenty three he was calling
for a ton of recession. Fine is coming out and
saying this is uh, this looks like a precursor, like
much like two thousand and eight. Same thing with him.
(39:07):
If you look at his past track record of what
he called, you know, crying wolf, it's mixed. He's he's
called some corrections and bear markets within cryptocurrency, but then
when it comes to the stock market and economy when
you look back, you know, in twenty twenty two also
he was also calling for a recession as well. Never happened,
(39:27):
So I would take some of that with a grain
of salt. Again, going back to the first segment where
John was saying, you know, don't overreact, don't panic, right
if you're on if you're looking at CNBC, MSN, MSNBC
or Fox or any of these you know, financial networks
that are going out there and they're putting some of
these figures out there and they're saying recession or two
(39:49):
thousand and eight or whatever. Don't make a quick reaction, right,
especially if you're not invested directly in these segments that
are being very you know, impacted. But it is good
to pay attention to, right. You don't want to be so,
you know, relaxed or complacent that well, oh Marcus down
two percent, or you know, I'm just gonna go buy
(40:10):
a bunch of tech stocks because that killed it the
last three years. And here's my opportunity now I did.
I wasn't able to make one hundred percent of my
tech stocks, you know when everything was booming because I
waited too long. So now I'm gonna do it now. No,
it's not a good time.
Speaker 2 (40:23):
Really.
Speaker 3 (40:24):
What it's a good time for if you haven't done it,
like we talked about earlier, is have a plan. If
you don't have a plan, and if you don't know
where to start, that's where you give us a call,
a nine one six, nine six, seven thirty five hundred
or a review, second set of eyes.
Speaker 2 (40:38):
Hey, here's my portfolio.
Speaker 3 (40:39):
Had these investments for a long time, or I've managed them,
or or I've had them managed, but I don't even
know what's inside of them. Are they aligned with my plan?
That's where you want to come to people like ourselves,
John and myself or another professional. We prefer that you
guys come to us, obviously, but you you meet up
with a professional to have a another set of eyes
(41:01):
to say, yeah, here's where you want to reposition, or
you're a little overweight in this. One of the areas.
For example, sectors that are getting hit because of the
private credit stress is financials. So you're seeing financials. It
took a twelve percent drop recently and they're getting hit.
Do you bust out of them? Do you keep some
of the names or buy more right? Or do you
(41:23):
buy more because maybe they're going down but they really
don't have much exposure to private credit or on their
balance sheet. So these are the things that you need
to look into. And this is where having professional help
really makes the difference. Instead of making emotional reactions and
then taking action to those emotional reactions.
Speaker 2 (41:44):
I'm going to take a drink by the way. For
more information, As Joseeppe said, you can call us, but
we are and have scheduled our next seminar. So if
you're listening in the Bay area, and also give us
a call. It's going to be at the end of April,
(42:05):
and always on a Wednesday. And I don't know off
the top of my head what the last Wednesday of
April is, but it is. What is the last twenty ninth?
It is the twenty ninth, so the.
Speaker 3 (42:18):
Very it's the second to the last day of the month.
Speaker 2 (42:21):
Actually, Yeah, So to come see us in person and
see why we think we're the best mouse trap, especially
for these turbulent times. You can call and get registered
and signed up, and who should call.
Speaker 3 (42:37):
It's the early bird registration.
Speaker 2 (42:39):
This is the early bird registration because normally we announced
it about a month out, weeks few weeks, so we're
about six weeks out. But nevertheless, if you're close to retirement,
like the person we just met with that went to
our previous seminar that just there, there's so many opportunities
in his portfolio for rebalancing and getting back on tracks,
(43:04):
playing and simplifying and so on and so forth. We'll
show you how we do things and it will be
a good use of your time. We know that from feedback,
so we'd love to see you there again. Called nine
one six nine six seven thirty five hundred to come
in for a no obligation consultation or sign up for
our April workshop that's going to be in the East
(43:26):
Bay area. So hope you enjoyed listening to the Wise
money guys. Have a wonderful Saturday, and come back and
listen to us again next weekend. Bye all, have a
great weekend.
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