February 25, 2026 • 43 mins
It's everything... From Health care to Estate Planning, plus Government debt and spending. Add AI strategies and Structured notes to that. Hosts John and Giuseppe take a wide-angle view of your full portfolio before personaling a plan for you. It's wise investing for you. The Wise Money Guys.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seventy eight. For disclosures and more information, and
visit our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show.
I'm your co host John Scambray and I'm here with
my partner Jesseeppa Visconti, and we are certified portfolio managers
that specialize in helping people who are retired are about
to retire manage their money. If you like our show,
want to get a hold of us, have comments, want
us to talk about something specific next show, Want to
(00:35):
come in for a no obligation consultation, give us a
call at nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
So this morning we're going to be talking about something
that's it's it's sad.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
But it needs to be. It's hoal.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
It does hit home and is very personal that before
we get into that, I do want to announce and
and mention, and I'll mention it a couple of times
that you can come see us in person. Our seminar
is in two weeks two weeks from this last week here.
(01:12):
So it's on March fourth at and it's a seminar
for people who are retired are about to retire, that
are concerned about, you know, where's where's the country going,
where's inflation going, where's interest rates going, Where's the cost
of health insurance, where's goods and services? You know, basically,
(01:33):
how does this affect my money? How does this affect
our financial lives long term? And that's what we're going
to be talking about at our seminar on March fourth
at Wood Creek Golf Club from five point thirty to seven.
You'll call nine one six ninety six seven thirty five
hundred to sign up for it. We are getting a
(01:54):
lot of early people signing up, so don't wait. We
don't know in fact, since it's our first time at
this golf course, we don't know how many people it holds.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Actually, yeah, holds quite a bit, but there is capacity
for sure, so you don't know it to a last minute.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
So nevertheless, you know, give us a call whether you
want to come in for a no obligation consultation or
sign up for.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
Our first of the year.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
That's right, it is our first of the year seminar,
and that's going to be at Wood Creek Golf Club
again from five point thirty to seven on March fourth,
which is a Wednesday called nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
So if you listen.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Last week, I was not doing the show, just set
Pete was was doing it for us flying solo. You
did a good job. So, by the way, and the
reason being is because I was at a friend's funeral.
(02:59):
His name was Braden. He was fifty eight years old
and was was in great health and certainly on the
outside and just based on you know, what he looked like,
the activities that he did, he and his wife of
you know, thirty plus years, I think around thirty five
(03:21):
years just all of a sudden had a stroke and
ended up, you know, with no brain activity. And one
week later they they pulled the plug, I guess for
lack of a better they took him off life support
and he was gone. And the reason why I mentioned
(03:41):
that is because you know, he wasn't expecting it. Obviously,
his family wasn't expecting it. His sons both they just
married or saw their second son get married. And he's
he's in our industry and just a great guy. I
started with him he started a little before me, but
(04:04):
in the late nineties I had been at another firm
and then moved over to Dean Witter, which became Morgan
Stanley Dean Witter and had known him and his family
for thirty plus years. And in fact, my parents were
with him just before that, and you know, and then
(04:26):
and then you're no longer here. So the point of
that is, it's a big shocker. It's it's a big shocker.
And even for somebody as successful as he was, as
successful as his family is, you got to have a plan.
And I hate to tie it to that, but that's
the reality, you.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
Know, because you don't you don't know. Nobody has a
crystal ball, and sometimes there's something around the corner that
is totally unpredicted. And I shared a little bit about
you know, my father had passed away last year, who
was older granted seventy one, but was totally unexpected and
left my mom. You know, my mom survived my dad.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
But the.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
Big shock is the shock itself, like your friend or
my dad, because it wasn't you know, it's not something
like somebody was sick. For example, right, I had a
cancer and it was battling cancer for three years off
and on, and you're like, oh, I should start getting
my ducks in a row. I should start thinking about this,
I should start thinking about the finances, or you know,
(05:28):
where do we have a trust set up? Or all
these different things right that we normally talk about, or
maybe if you've heard either through our radio show or
maybe through a professional that you work with, whether it's
an accountant, a lawyer, a financial advisor. But you you know,
I tend to feel like, eh, I have plenty of
time I can put I'll push that off, and that's
(05:48):
in the back burner. I'll do it later. I'll do
it later. I'll do it later. But you know, come
to find out some of the things. And even like
I think you said, your friend Brayden, you know, you
weren't even sure if he had a succession plan for
his business. My mom and her case, my parents did
not have a trust. And I'm their son. And I've
been in this industry for you know, over seventeen years,
(06:09):
and I've talked about it a bunch. But it's not like,
you know, you don't take the urgency to do something.
There's no urgency around it when it's not planned for.
But those are the things that we talk about and
bring up, you know, when we do a financial plan
with our clients and our prospect and we don't want
to make it insincere to like try and turn this
and saying like, oh, you know, this is this is
(06:31):
what we do, and this is what we're trying to
sell you a pitch. You know. It's just reality of life.
And I think when it hits you know, John recently
on a personal right level, I mean, we had a conversation,
He's like, crap, I'm I'm a year younger than him, Like,
this could very well be me, and I have you know,
(06:51):
do I have all my ducks in a row, because
you're not expecting a fifty seven or fifth or next
year that your time is up? Right. My father, I
remember having conversations with him of, hey, you should probably
put a trust together, Hey you should you know, maybe
think about this, think about it, and he's like, ah,
don't worry about it. I'm gonna be okay. We can
do that later. You know, I can be you know,
and it's not it's normal, it's common. We get a
(07:13):
lot of it from our clients, even sometimes prospects. I
know I've had clients for a number of years and
have had every review meeting, you know, annual review meeting,
have talked about Hey, we talked about a trust last
year in your annual review meeting. Have you gone through
and done a trust? Have you put your house under
(07:34):
your trust? Have you thought about you know, who your
durable power of attorney is in case maybe you get
a stroke. I have a really close friend of mine.
His father actually had a stroke, but he survived, but
he's been incapacitated and he was incapacitated for a few
months in the hospital. He's in ICU. You know, what
does his mom do? Who takes care of the finances,
who has the power of taking over the finances? Those
(07:57):
are sort of the things that you have to think about,
and that all ties with the financial planning.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Yeah, it is important to to tie it to financial planning.
And again, you know that's what we do. But nowadays,
you know, the advisory firm or the advisors you're working
with aren't financial planning based. Don't talk about estate planning
or the what ifs. Don't talk about you know, uh,
(08:23):
things as simple as insurance. You know, even though we
don't sell insurance, it's still important to have that.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
We have the capacity to sell insurance. We're just not
huge insurance and big ticket you know, one one hit
wonder commission salesman. But insurance does play an important role
unless you're self insured, and we can talk more about
what that means.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
Well, again, the the the reality is is that the
person that you're getting financial advice, they need to look
at a broad brush at least initially of topics and
concerns and then and then narrow it down to the
things that need to be done, you know, most urgently,
(09:11):
things that can be put off a little bit later.
But but really it all starts with basically having that
consultation and conversation, uh, with your with your financial advisor.
Speaker 3 (09:25):
And and if you're not and your loved ones really
and your family.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Well hopefully when you do your plan and all of that,
you're you're bringing in your your you know, it's you
and your spouse together.
Speaker 3 (09:34):
Well, it's you know, it's it's that is having the
conversation with your spouse right or significant other, your kids
and and and having those conversations and not only that,
but then you trusted. I mean, I have my cousin
who reached out to me you know, I think a
number of months ago saying hey, you know, I want
to know if it's okay should something happen to me
(09:54):
that you're the executor to handle the trust in all
the finances, you know, for my family. Those are the
things that are uncomfortable to talk about, but it's necessary
because if those things aren't lined up and not talked
about and planned for, that is the last thing that
you want to do when you're grieving, you know, a loss. Yeah,
it's having this pile of paperwork and all these to
(10:17):
do lists and task It's just it's already overwhelming as
it is just reading for the loss.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
It's not to make light of the topic. But there
is that insurance commercial. I don't know if you've seen it.
It's not intended to be humorous by any stretch, but
it's it's one of those and there it's a husband
and wife having a conversation and the husband mentions that
some friend died unexpectedly and doesn't have it and didn't
(10:44):
have insurance. And then the spouse goes to the husband,
John had his name happens to be John commercial. We
have insurance, right, And he goes and the husband basically goes,
I've been meaning to get it, and she goes, John,
we don't have life insurance, and so again, life insurance
isn't you know, what we specialize in, As Jo Seppi said,
(11:08):
it's possible, but I would uh, we would refer it
to experts if it uncovered, If we uncovered in the
conversation that you know, insurance is something that you don't have,
is out of date, you know, so on and so forth,
just like we can cover you know, looking at trusts
(11:30):
and getting those reviews and helping you and point you
in the right direction for getting those things amended or
in fact helping you to get them put in place
if you don't have, you know, a basic family living trust.
So call us at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred and we were talking about the importance
(11:52):
of financial planning with respect to being prepared for the unexpected.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
So if you're just tuning in, both.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Giuseppe and I have had some recent friends and more
drastically in his case, family pass unexpectedly, and it does
hie to your investment goals and objectives that should all
be in your financial plan. And when we do a
(12:22):
financial plan or have a financial planning consultation, which by
the way, we do do that with a no obligation.
We're going to talk about those things, and I know
they're uncomfortable, but it's important, you know, as.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
It's important to go beyond just the portfolio and investments
and just the performance of like, hey, my portfolio did
this last year, what is it going to do next year?
It's beyond the scope of that.
Speaker 2 (12:48):
Yeah, it really is. And in fact, I'm thinking we
should get on the trust side, Alesandra, to talk more
about trusts and some of the protection basics that trusts
afford families that are high net worth, and then tax
mitigation too, the tax mitigation strategies, and then also just
what a basic financial or excuse me, a basic trust
(13:13):
does for you, which is sometimes just simply wanting to
make sure that again, as you said, when you're grieving,
the last thing you want to worry about is, you know,
is my beneficiaries or are probate.
Speaker 3 (13:28):
And all those things? Yeah, yeah, I mean if my luckily,
you know, when my father passed, luckily my mother survived him,
but had something happened to my mom at the same
time and they both passed, they didn't have a trust
it would have been a financial mess for me and
my sister to handle. Luckily I have enough experience so
(13:52):
I would know, you know, where to go, but it
would have been a lot of work. It's been quite
a bit of work actually with me helping my mom
get things more organized, get a trust put in place
for her, have her you know, her property put under
and recorder under the name of her trust. Also also
it's basically your playbook. You know, we're not a state attorneys,
(14:16):
but we've dealt with this enough and had enough experiences
with with clients and unfortunately enough experience with clients and
spouses of those clients passing away that we would that
we have to go in and become basically the organizers
and say, okay, you know, do you have a trust?
Yes or no? What happens is when somebody does have
(14:38):
a trust. I mean, I don't know about you, but
it's like this sigh of relief almost, because that essentially
is the playbook. Yes, well when something when the event happens,
when somebody does pass and say, oh, you know, my husband,
my husband pass Unfortunately, all right, do you have a trust?
You know, if they have a trust, it goes a
lot smoother because that is a playbook, because everything is
(14:58):
spelled out how the assets are supposed to be distributed,
spread out. If there's different kids, you know to you know,
even my like my mom, me and my sister. Had
a conversation with my mom of you know, her wishes
when she passes away. What happens if she is incapacitated,
she goes in a coma who takes over, who has
(15:20):
authority on which accounts to be able to make sure
that her taxes are taken care of, her bills are paid,
so on and so forth. What should happen to the house?
Do you want that? Do you want your house to
be sold? Some some of our clients say, hey, I
have multiple homes and I don't want these to go
to my kids and just sell them all right away.
Or these different assets, I want some of them to
be They could be sold, but the others I want
(15:42):
them to continue to be managed. There's a process and
things that we can implore too to have that. Basically,
it's managing your assets from from your grave to carry out.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
Oh, go ahead, I was just going to say, you
know what the biggest mistake is that we see over
and over it again when it comes to trust. Not
that our clients don't have them, because usually they do.
Our higher net worth clients have them, but then they
don't have their accounts actually named in the trust, or
they haven't even recorded their properties. And sometimes understand of
(16:19):
the trust A.
Speaker 3 (16:19):
Lot of times don't understand that. You think that, you think.
I think a lot of times what happens is what
I've come across and probably you too, is Yeah, they've
done the trust and so therefore it takes care of everything,
or they've listed their accounts like, oh, I have accounts
at Bank of America, I have an account over here,
I have an account at Fidela, I have an account
with you guys with Schwab, and they've written it down
on the back of the trust. No, that does not
(16:42):
mean that it's under the trust. You have to actually,
if you have a brokerage account of taxable now all
retirement accounts and insurance, life insurance and duties, they don't
have a trust named that. You don't need it because
they already have a beneficiary listed. It's protected from probate.
But your savings accounts, your properties, you're you know, taxable
(17:03):
non qualified is what they're called. Investment accounts or bank accounts,
or any assets that you have cash in those you
want to go to entity itself. For example, I took
my mom to US bank. She had got a couple
of banks, and I took her to both banks, brought
in a copy of trust. They have their own respective paperwork,
(17:24):
and then we're able to put her account instead of
saying her her name or at the time was her
and my father as a joint changed it to under
the name of the trust. Same thing with the house,
went through the county and had her property recorded under
the name of the trust.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
You know, bare minimum if you just you don't know,
and maybe you're just don't want to have a trust done.
I know, you know, we have some family members that
the exact comment from this particular family member was, what
do I care when I'm gone?
Speaker 3 (17:57):
You know, you don't have any anybody to leave it to.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Well, no, they have people to leave it too, but
it just doesn't care about what happens after they're gone.
But bare minimum. One of the simplest things you can
do if you have accounts is you can add a beneficiary,
even to a taxable regular account like an individual account
(18:21):
or a joint account, you could add a designated beneficiary account.
In fact, some firms call them to D accounts transfer
on death, other firms call them designated beneficiary account. So
you know, that's something that again when you're when you're
working with us and we're doing your plan and we're
managing your investments, we're going to make sure they're titled
(18:45):
in the best way possible for you and your family
and your legacy and those things you know often are
overlooked or underappreciated. And then certainly, as I said that,
the type of advisor or advisory firm you are with,
(19:06):
in my opinion, if these aren't the types of conversations
you're you're having and it's just about, oh, here's my
portfolio and what return did it get me, You're you're
you're you're missing out, and I think you're being underserved
and not getting the value that you should be getting
out of the firm that that is representing you. And
(19:27):
I think the wave of the future is really advisors
that help and we do help with you know, helping
you find the right people to help you with your
tax returns. We help on tax mitigation ideas and strategies,
helping you get to the right, uh folks, for you know,
your estate planning needs that the trust actual you know,
(19:51):
uh documents and putting those into place. In fact, we've
we've had Alessandro on the car before and we'll have them,
I mean on the show and we'll have them again.
But again, these are all the things that we can
talk about in a consultation and there is absolutely no
obligation for that consultation. Of course, reviewing your investment portfolios
(20:16):
and giving you some ideas and letting you know how
we would do things differently and how that might be
better for you is going to be part of that conversation.
And if you're not ready to do that and want
to come to a free dinner workshop or first of
the year, you can call nine one six ninety six
(20:37):
seven thirty five hundred and sign up for our March
fourth dinner workshop at Wood Creek Golf Club in Roosevelt
in Roseville from five thirty to seven. Space is filling up,
so don't wait. And who should attend, Well, somebody who has,
you know, concerns about their investments. They're a state their legacy,
(21:01):
people where you know, your financial lives matter. People that
have you know, concerns about their portfolios and and everything
that's going on. In fact, we'll talk about uh in
our next uh uh conversation, you know, the government shut down, inflation,
the economy, you know, the markets in general, and always
(21:23):
we will give you tips and and and and ideas
on how we're doing things and why we think that's
the right uh process. So as always we like to
also talk about things that are going on that affect
investment and your portfolios potentially. And and here we are again.
I mean, we're getting to be a broken record on
(21:46):
these things. But that the government shut down just continues
to be a conversation. I think even if we get
back past this partial shutdown, it'll happen again. They're just
you know, they're in recess until the twenty third.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
You know.
Speaker 2 (22:02):
And that's a good point. I don't know what politicians
quite frankly do anymore for the most part, as far
as Congress and laws and making our economy and our
country better and safer and more prosperous. I think they
spend more time just fighting each other.
Speaker 3 (22:23):
And trying to stick their ground and you know, battling
the biggest issue of all which could drastically they're battling
the debate, right, yeah, and debate to just a debate
and trying to stick to their sides and have an
importance on that more so than what's going to be,
you know, best for the citizens of our country that
(22:46):
we represent.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
Politicians seem to care about the burgeoninge debt. I mean,
I shouldn't say burgeoning exploding debt. I mean, now you
know projections are fifty trillion dollars and then in the
next three to five years, that's ridiculous. I mean, it's
it's well, I mean, just two years ago when when
you join the show, you know, we were in probably
(23:13):
the mid to high twenties in trillions, which coaching forty.
And now we're right there at forty trillion. So fifty trillion,
one hundred trillion, I mean, where does it end? And
if you're thinking that bad budgeting, you know that it
won't have an effect. It will eventually have an effect. Why,
(23:33):
because the value of the dollar against other currencies will
be so low that prices will be drastically higher because
your purchasing power is drastically lower. And then how does
that affect your portfolio? It affects it drastically because if
(23:54):
we take the dollar right now, just we're not going
to use you know, scientific methods of compare garrison right now.
But if it goes down fifty percent from where it
is right now, as far as you know, marking it
to again or the UoN or the YEU ro.
Speaker 3 (24:12):
We'll have a lot of tours from from Europe and
UK and coming over right because you'll be cheap.
Speaker 2 (24:17):
Everybody would be coming here. Uh you know. But that
but again, our buying power to maintain your lifestyle will
cost you drastically more so, once again, it comes back
to are you prepared for that? If you don't have
a baseline inflation rate of at least two and a
(24:39):
half percent in in your plan that your portfolio has
to keep up with plus fees, you're you're going to potentially.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
Run out of money.
Speaker 2 (24:51):
You might be thinking, oh, you know, we're sixty five
years old, we're getting some social security, we have a
million dollars, we have no debt, and and that million
dollars is going to last us forever, and we're going
to keep doing our travel and buy our groceries and
going out to the meals we like to go out to,
and so on. And so forth. We'll guess what ten
(25:12):
years from now that million dollars.
Speaker 3 (25:14):
Everything's just got more. I mean I just did. I
just had some I had a painter at my house
paint this blew me away, Yeah, paint both of my
girls' rooms. And you know, and I'm pretty you're frugal. Yeah,
you're frugal. Let's let's just admit it. Well, don't you
want your advisor to be too? But I try, and look,
(25:36):
you know, I just go out and just like the
first guy that comes by and just gives a quote.
I mean I've had four people give me quotes just
because it's like, wow, the the hour, you know, the
per reat hour is just insane. I mean some of
the quotes well painting, and some wouldwork right, some like
(25:57):
I forget we call it.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Not Yeah, wouldwork is more skilled labor. I don't think
paint bord and gild. Yeah, don't. I apologize to any
painters listening, but well, I can't. I can't paint like
he painted.
Speaker 3 (26:09):
No you can't. But his lines were yes, exactly, yeah, yeah,
that's the point. And so I found a reasonable one
for an hourly rate. He did a great job, but
it ended up being a little more than I anticipated
because he just charged by the hour. Some of the
other guys that I got, they charged by the by
(26:29):
the job. But the ones that charged a couple of
them that charged by the job. When I broke it
down and asked him, like how how long is it
going to take? And so on and so forth, it
broke down to about two hundred dollars per hour was
an hourly rate just for the labor, not not including
the materials itself. And I just have a hard time
unless you have a pH d. And painting but point
(26:52):
point made, which stands for piled high and deeper, Like
you better be Bob Ross, and I should have a
happy little tree on my wall, right and that like, okay,
i'll pay, I'll pay two nd do Yeah, I'll pay
two hundred dollars an hour for that, right, but just
a paint of color and maybe another color and another
you know, like two tone, and some chair rel and
what have you. Nevertheless, it got done. But my point
(27:13):
is is even with me and trying to find a
reasonable deal out there or reasonable you know, reasonable work,
as far as quality work for reasonable rate, it still
is way more. So I'll just tell you to two bedrooms,
both to two tone or two colors of paint, right,
(27:34):
two different types of color of paint, chair relling one
and then some Ordon Batton. I don't even know if
that's how you call it. Yeah, but he did.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
He did mudd work and everything on the outside of
a house typically, but.
Speaker 3 (27:46):
Yeah, so it's in the inside with we're working.
Speaker 2 (27:48):
So it was.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
Yeah, it was a lot, a lot longer process with that.
Did a really really good job. But it cost me
four thousand dollars. Okay, rewind time. I know this is
a while ago, but I had a rental prop about
in twenty nineteen, okay, a house, single family residents with
vaulted ceilings, skylights, right, I had two. I had the
(28:10):
walls painted one color, the ceiling painted white. I had
all the trim painted. I had you know, the doors,
the moldings, all that stuff done and it took them
a couple of weeks for nineteen hundred dollars. Yeah, nineteen
hundred dollars.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
Yeah, I mean, And the reality is is that we
could see another leg up in prices again based on
debt and deficit, and it's it's it's again, it's almost
straight math for every trillion dollars of debt take on.
You see the value of the dollar shrink by a
(28:47):
proportional amount. Again, is it just an exact measurement. No,
But the worse and the higher risk our country becomes
from a credit quality from an investability type UH measure
on treasuries and other government UH type bonds, the the
(29:12):
higher that the prices of things are going to go.
Because it's just simple simple, I mean, nobody's gonna want
our our our treasuries to help, you know, print more
money and and keep paying for all these things.
Speaker 3 (29:27):
Well in order to budget risk. And if we don't
budget and if the debt continues to go higher, then
our credit rating of a country is going to continue
to be compromised. And then that's going to increase the
rate exactly of the treasury because it's becoming viewed as
more of a riskier.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
As riskier asset exactly right. And then when when the
the the payment on that debt at those interest rates
goes even higher, guess what happens, taxes will have to
go higher. And so it's a domino effect. And so
your financial planning and your preparedness for high inflation, you know,
(30:11):
is so crucial.
Speaker 3 (30:12):
Again, testing is stress testing it. I mean, I just
did this with a client and a review and he's
a and we had this conversation and he says, you know,
here's some of the things he's worried about. His concerns
is what if inflation continues to go up and costs
of everything goes up and so on and so forth.
So I said, okay, let's take your plan. You're you're
(30:33):
you know, ahead of the game. You're at like you're
at like ninety one percent probability success, which is a
great probability success to achieve all of his goals until
he's ninety four years old. But let's say let's so
I stress tested. I created a separate scenario and said, okay,
let's use this scenario, but we're going to increase the
rate of inflation from here on out and see how
(30:56):
it stresses your your overall plans from two and a
half after what I increased it to two and a
half to three. And he still was that little bit
and it was he still was fine. But we did
this exercise. Well, another client or prospect actually right, because
they thought, what if I just put my money in
a SMP index fund, that tracks the S and P
(31:18):
five hundred. It's done very very well, and I'll just
pull a little bit less out than the average return
of the S and P five hundred. And we gave
him a couple of different scenarios. He actually ran out
of money that he started in two thousand and six
because he had two thousand and eight. That happened. But
then we also ran a different scenario and says, Okay,
what if we just increased the inflation by a half
a percent, it lowered his probability success to less than
(31:44):
where we wanted to because if it's less than seventy
five percent, then we start having some concerns. And I
think it brought him to like sixty percent tile or
something like that, just a half a percent of inflation,
because yeah, I think it's compounded over the course of retirement,
which could be you know, twenty or thirty years. So
maybe in the very beginning years, like oh, my first
three years or five years of retirement, yeah, not going
(32:06):
to have much of impact. But if it continues on
the rate of inflation stays around there and it's higher
and higher for ten, fifteen, twenty thirty years, it has impact.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
Yeah, I mean it used to be the reality was,
you know, if I could get a three four percent
return on my seven figures withdrawal investment portfolio and withdrawal rate,
and if I kept at least that number and higher,
then I wouldn't run out of I wouldn't run out
(32:36):
of principle or have to reduce your lifestyle or exactly.
But now I think unless you're you know, really planning
for a six seven eight percent return during retirement and
getting to the amount of assets that will replace the
income for like you said, till age ninety four, ninety two,
(33:01):
ninety really at a minimum, but we like to go
to ninety two for men and ninety four for women.
Speaker 3 (33:07):
Yeah, the default in the plan is that sometimes some
of our clients laugh, I'm not going to last that long,
But we like to air on the conservative side and
say what if you do? Right? What if you do?
Speaker 2 (33:17):
I mean again, technology hopefully is changing enough that will
keep living longer and longer.
Speaker 3 (33:23):
Everybody will just have an AI chip in them and
it'll enhance Like if your cholesterol's two thirty is, it'll
just reduce it to the Wisemighty.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
Guys are brought to you by one source wealth Management
sec Number three one nine zero seven eight. For more information,
you can always visit our website. Our websitewisemighteyguys dot com.
You can scroll down to the bottom of the page
for important disclosures. There's literally dozens and dozens and dozens
of articles and videos and content if you want to
(33:56):
just explore get a little more information before you decide
to give us a call at nine one six ninety six,
seven thirty five hundred and again, don't forget if you're
you know, near retirement or already retired, come to our
workshop from five point thirty to seven at Wood Creek
Golf Club in Roseville on Wednesday, March fourth. Call us
(34:20):
again to get registered for that. Our SVP for it
at nine one six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred
and Uh. Let's talk a little bit about just you know,
this year. I think it's going the way we thought
it would be going as far as we knew there
would be volatility. We think we think it's going to
(34:43):
be a good year overall, but not without you know
some scary well, I don't peaks and valleys.
Speaker 3 (34:49):
I don't think it's Yeah, I think it would be
too high of an expectation to think it's going to
be as good as last twenty twenty especially twenty twenty three,
twenty twenty four, twenty twenty five, I.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
Mean three years in a row.
Speaker 3 (35:03):
Think about that, double digit turns and no, no, just
well last year we had we had a pretty big
draw down in April, but it was short lived. But yeah,
the S and P five hundred had healthy double digit
returns in twenty three, twenty four, and twenty five. So
to expect that we're gonna have healthy again, another healthy
double digit return this year without you know, volatility, I mean,
(35:27):
can have a double digit return, yes, but as we've
talked about in some previous recent episodes, you know, the
market on what is giving those returns is looking different
now than what it has in the past few years.
And so you know, it's it's paying attention of where
you need to shift and rebalance your assets within your
(35:50):
portfolio because some of the some of the winners in
the last few years are not the winners so far
this year, because it's it's broadening out into other areas
in different sectors of the market.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
Well, and if you if you look at the mag
seven here just you know, over over the course of
the last year.
Speaker 3 (36:09):
BAG seven. When is that gonna die?
Speaker 2 (36:11):
I know, but but I'm gonna get some wheels from
a car down.
Speaker 3 (36:14):
I'm gonna get some wheels from my car. It's going
to say MAG seven and they're going to be seven
spoke rims.
Speaker 2 (36:21):
But most of them are down double digits, you know,
from their highs, and so that we're already seeing that
that shift out of exhaustion.
Speaker 3 (36:32):
It's exhaust it's exhaustion, really it is. And they've gone
up so much in a relatively short period of time
that they've reached an exhaustive point. And now it's more
of like we've said before, you know, where does a
rubber meets the road. As far as all of this
AI euphoria and investing, that's all spend future. Yeah, it's
not profit. It's all spending for future potential, you know,
(36:56):
profits and growth. And now as we're well into it,
it's okay, let's start seeing how those profits are turning
out and do they turn out as fast as we think?
And then can all of this AI and investing be
supported by our infrastructure? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (37:14):
Reality is is that I think if you try to
narrow your scope so meaning, you know, diversification comes from
not only what type of sectors you're in within the
stock market, but it also comes from being in other
investment types outside of the stock market. And the focus
(37:35):
was so narrow in that period of time twenty three,
twenty four, twenty five to you know, chip makers, software companies,
you know, communication companies. Now it's getting back to at
least within the stock market category of investing. You're seeing
(37:57):
much better upside opportunities along with great dividends in healthcare,
pharma industrials, materials, your favorite one, you miss, I was
going there, energy and I just love that that, you know,
(38:19):
the the industry, especially the the you know, the shows
out there, the the television financial shows are relate to
the game. I mean, I've been saying and talking about
the importance of dividends and interests, true diversification into other
(38:39):
categories of investment to find you know, risk for the
best possible UH reward and and balancing that out through
the use of looking for things that pay you while
you're in the dividends and interests versus just going for
appreciation of price growth, you know. And now all of
(39:02):
a sudden, you see all these shows, articles going, oh,
look look for look for dividends, look for interest. Well
it's looked for, you know, other sectors, and it's it's always.
Speaker 3 (39:14):
Been one versus the other. And where is the total
return to you know, to go after or where is
it right now? Right? And so after after the dot
Com bust of two thousand, value actually superseded growth and
that was the area to be in until inflation and
things started to pop up, and then it was growth.
(39:37):
And then we had two thousand and eight happen and
interest rates were at zero, and so growth was the
name of the game for a long period time. And
some of that had to do with, you know, the
the interest rate environment and low inflationary environment that we're in. Right,
we had twenty twenty, which then reset it. Right, We
(39:57):
started raising interest rates from twenty fifteen and then started
and then paused it in twenty nineteen. And then in
twenty twenty we had COVID and they dropped it all
the way down to the Feds dropped all the way
down zero, and inflation was very very low until it
wasn't because of all the spending that they did, right,
But it created the environment, and then now you have
some of the new technology, the new I always want
(40:21):
to say revolution, but it's industrial revolution. Yeah, yeah, I
guess you can call it that. Fourth Industrial revolution is
what it was. The last one was the Internet, not
the Fourth kind. No, that's a scary movie. By the way,
you want to hear a funny story, real quick.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
Aliens are a great thing. Watch that.
Speaker 3 (40:39):
So here's a quick, thirty seconds funny story. So I've
you know, I like watching some of those movies, movies
sometimes just for entertainment. I have a heavy buddy of mine.
He's like, oh, I love that stuff. So I told him,
have you watched The Fourth Kind? And he's like no.
So it's like, you gotta watch you gotta watch it,
and put it off, put it off. Finally he put it.
He watched it, he says. All the family was in bed.
He watched it. He was in the family room by himself, right,
(41:02):
and he's like, holy cow, he says. But here's the kicker.
He says, it was about midnight the movie ended. I
turned my TV off. I'm already kind of in my
head right like, oh my gosh, he says. But then
I started walking out, shut everything down. The TV turned
on by itself and he looked at it, like what
the heck? He went and he turned it back off,
and like ten seconds later it turned back on again.
(41:25):
He's like, I could not sleep for like two to
three hours.
Speaker 2 (41:29):
Hey, you know, the the thing is is even presidents.
But I don't know if you saw that Obama was
talking about that. You know, he thinks there's alien life
you know.
Speaker 3 (41:43):
Well, I mean Earth. Yeah, well they know, they all
know more than we know. So but of what what
they've researched or found out or whatever. But and how
we got on that, I have no idea. But you
said the fourth the fourth revolution, he said, the fourth kind.
But yeah, so the euphoria of the new technology and
revolution of of what's what's to be had, you know,
(42:05):
help to bolster and go back into growth again, right,
and growth names. So now it's changing and the end
of last year and so far the beginning of this
year values back at play. Let's see if it continues on.
Speaker 2 (42:19):
But I don't think dividends, you know, making sure, especially
with dividends and interest in retirement ever goes out of favor. Right,
I don't think there's ever a time if you're if
you've got all the money you're actually going to earn
yes retirement from retirement that you go, oh, let me
go purely your growth.
Speaker 3 (42:36):
If you're younger and you got ten fifteen years before retirement,
you're probably still going after growth names.
Speaker 2 (42:42):
And you know what the best part about the plan
is or having a plan is it really aligns your
expectations for the radar return. You need to make what
the portfolio design should be and therefore what type of
return that portfolio would typically produce for you, and then
how that would help you sustain your life for the
(43:03):
next twenty thirty years in retirement. And to learn more
about that and to see us in person, you can
call nine one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred
to register for our Wednesday, March fourth seminar or give
us a call to come in for a no obligation
consultation and portfolio and financial planning review. Hope you enjoyed
(43:26):
listening to the Wise money guys, John Scambray and Giuseppe Baskani.
Have a wonderful Saturday afternoon and come back and listen
to us next weekend.
Speaker 3 (43:33):
By all, have a great weekend.
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seventy eight. For disclosures and more information, and
visit our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show.
I'm your co host John Scambray and I'm here with
my partner Jesseeppa Visconti, and we are certified portfolio managers
that specialize in helping people who are retired are about
to retire manage their money. If you like our show,
want to get a hold of us, have comments, want
us to talk about something specific next show, Want to
(00:35):
come in for a no obligation consultation, give us a
call at nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
So this morning we're going to be talking about something
that's it's it's sad.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
But it needs to be. It's hoal.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
It does hit home and is very personal that before
we get into that, I do want to announce and
and mention, and I'll mention it a couple of times
that you can come see us in person. Our seminar
is in two weeks two weeks from this last week here.
(01:12):
So it's on March fourth at and it's a seminar
for people who are retired are about to retire, that
are concerned about, you know, where's where's the country going,
where's inflation going, where's interest rates going, Where's the cost
of health insurance, where's goods and services? You know, basically,
(01:33):
how does this affect my money? How does this affect
our financial lives long term? And that's what we're going
to be talking about at our seminar on March fourth
at Wood Creek Golf Club from five point thirty to seven.
You'll call nine one six ninety six seven thirty five
hundred to sign up for it. We are getting a
(01:54):
lot of early people signing up, so don't wait. We
don't know in fact, since it's our first time at
this golf course, we don't know how many people it holds.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Actually, yeah, holds quite a bit, but there is capacity
for sure, so you don't know it to a last minute.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
So nevertheless, you know, give us a call whether you
want to come in for a no obligation consultation or
sign up for.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
Our first of the year.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
That's right, it is our first of the year seminar,
and that's going to be at Wood Creek Golf Club
again from five point thirty to seven on March fourth,
which is a Wednesday called nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
So if you listen.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Last week, I was not doing the show, just set
Pete was was doing it for us flying solo. You
did a good job. So, by the way, and the
reason being is because I was at a friend's funeral.
(02:59):
His name was Braden. He was fifty eight years old
and was was in great health and certainly on the
outside and just based on you know, what he looked like,
the activities that he did, he and his wife of
you know, thirty plus years, I think around thirty five
(03:21):
years just all of a sudden had a stroke and
ended up, you know, with no brain activity. And one
week later they they pulled the plug, I guess for
lack of a better they took him off life support
and he was gone. And the reason why I mentioned
(03:41):
that is because you know, he wasn't expecting it. Obviously,
his family wasn't expecting it. His sons both they just
married or saw their second son get married. And he's
he's in our industry and just a great guy. I
started with him he started a little before me, but
(04:04):
in the late nineties I had been at another firm
and then moved over to Dean Witter, which became Morgan
Stanley Dean Witter and had known him and his family
for thirty plus years. And in fact, my parents were
with him just before that, and you know, and then
(04:26):
and then you're no longer here. So the point of
that is, it's a big shocker. It's it's a big shocker.
And even for somebody as successful as he was, as
successful as his family is, you got to have a plan.
And I hate to tie it to that, but that's
the reality, you.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
Know, because you don't you don't know. Nobody has a
crystal ball, and sometimes there's something around the corner that
is totally unpredicted. And I shared a little bit about
you know, my father had passed away last year, who
was older granted seventy one, but was totally unexpected and
left my mom. You know, my mom survived my dad.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
But the.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
Big shock is the shock itself, like your friend or
my dad, because it wasn't you know, it's not something
like somebody was sick. For example, right, I had a
cancer and it was battling cancer for three years off
and on, and you're like, oh, I should start getting
my ducks in a row. I should start thinking about this,
I should start thinking about the finances, or you know,
(05:28):
where do we have a trust set up? Or all
these different things right that we normally talk about, or
maybe if you've heard either through our radio show or
maybe through a professional that you work with, whether it's
an accountant, a lawyer, a financial advisor. But you you know,
I tend to feel like, eh, I have plenty of
time I can put I'll push that off, and that's
(05:48):
in the back burner. I'll do it later. I'll do
it later. I'll do it later. But you know, come
to find out some of the things. And even like
I think you said, your friend Brayden, you know, you
weren't even sure if he had a succession plan for
his business. My mom and her case, my parents did
not have a trust. And I'm their son. And I've
been in this industry for you know, over seventeen years,
(06:09):
and I've talked about it a bunch. But it's not like,
you know, you don't take the urgency to do something.
There's no urgency around it when it's not planned for.
But those are the things that we talk about and
bring up, you know, when we do a financial plan
with our clients and our prospect and we don't want
to make it insincere to like try and turn this
and saying like, oh, you know, this is this is
(06:31):
what we do, and this is what we're trying to
sell you a pitch. You know. It's just reality of life.
And I think when it hits you know, John recently
on a personal right level, I mean, we had a conversation,
He's like, crap, I'm I'm a year younger than him, Like,
this could very well be me, and I have you know,
(06:51):
do I have all my ducks in a row, because
you're not expecting a fifty seven or fifth or next
year that your time is up? Right. My father, I
remember having conversations with him of, hey, you should probably
put a trust together, Hey you should you know, maybe
think about this, think about it, and he's like, ah,
don't worry about it. I'm gonna be okay. We can
do that later. You know, I can be you know,
and it's not it's normal, it's common. We get a
(07:13):
lot of it from our clients, even sometimes prospects. I
know I've had clients for a number of years and
have had every review meeting, you know, annual review meeting,
have talked about Hey, we talked about a trust last
year in your annual review meeting. Have you gone through
and done a trust? Have you put your house under
(07:34):
your trust? Have you thought about you know, who your
durable power of attorney is in case maybe you get
a stroke. I have a really close friend of mine.
His father actually had a stroke, but he survived, but
he's been incapacitated and he was incapacitated for a few
months in the hospital. He's in ICU. You know, what
does his mom do? Who takes care of the finances,
who has the power of taking over the finances? Those
(07:57):
are sort of the things that you have to think about,
and that all ties with the financial planning.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Yeah, it is important to to tie it to financial planning.
And again, you know that's what we do. But nowadays,
you know, the advisory firm or the advisors you're working
with aren't financial planning based. Don't talk about estate planning
or the what ifs. Don't talk about you know, uh,
(08:23):
things as simple as insurance. You know, even though we
don't sell insurance, it's still important to have that.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
We have the capacity to sell insurance. We're just not
huge insurance and big ticket you know, one one hit
wonder commission salesman. But insurance does play an important role
unless you're self insured, and we can talk more about
what that means.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
Well, again, the the the reality is is that the
person that you're getting financial advice, they need to look
at a broad brush at least initially of topics and
concerns and then and then narrow it down to the
things that need to be done, you know, most urgently,
(09:11):
things that can be put off a little bit later.
But but really it all starts with basically having that
consultation and conversation, uh, with your with your financial advisor.
Speaker 3 (09:25):
And and if you're not and your loved ones really
and your family.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Well hopefully when you do your plan and all of that,
you're you're bringing in your your you know, it's you
and your spouse together.
Speaker 3 (09:34):
Well, it's you know, it's it's that is having the
conversation with your spouse right or significant other, your kids
and and and having those conversations and not only that,
but then you trusted. I mean, I have my cousin
who reached out to me you know, I think a
number of months ago saying hey, you know, I want
to know if it's okay should something happen to me
(09:54):
that you're the executor to handle the trust in all
the finances, you know, for my family. Those are the
things that are uncomfortable to talk about, but it's necessary
because if those things aren't lined up and not talked
about and planned for, that is the last thing that
you want to do when you're grieving, you know, a loss. Yeah,
it's having this pile of paperwork and all these to
(10:17):
do lists and task It's just it's already overwhelming as
it is just reading for the loss.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
It's not to make light of the topic. But there
is that insurance commercial. I don't know if you've seen it.
It's not intended to be humorous by any stretch, but
it's it's one of those and there it's a husband
and wife having a conversation and the husband mentions that
some friend died unexpectedly and doesn't have it and didn't
(10:44):
have insurance. And then the spouse goes to the husband,
John had his name happens to be John commercial. We
have insurance, right, And he goes and the husband basically goes,
I've been meaning to get it, and she goes, John,
we don't have life insurance, and so again, life insurance
isn't you know, what we specialize in, As Jo Seppi said,
(11:08):
it's possible, but I would uh, we would refer it
to experts if it uncovered, If we uncovered in the
conversation that you know, insurance is something that you don't have,
is out of date, you know, so on and so forth,
just like we can cover you know, looking at trusts
(11:30):
and getting those reviews and helping you and point you
in the right direction for getting those things amended or
in fact helping you to get them put in place
if you don't have, you know, a basic family living trust.
So call us at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred and we were talking about the importance
(11:52):
of financial planning with respect to being prepared for the unexpected.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
So if you're just tuning in, both.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Giuseppe and I have had some recent friends and more
drastically in his case, family pass unexpectedly, and it does
hie to your investment goals and objectives that should all
be in your financial plan. And when we do a
(12:22):
financial plan or have a financial planning consultation, which by
the way, we do do that with a no obligation.
We're going to talk about those things, and I know
they're uncomfortable, but it's important, you know, as.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
It's important to go beyond just the portfolio and investments
and just the performance of like, hey, my portfolio did
this last year, what is it going to do next year?
It's beyond the scope of that.
Speaker 2 (12:48):
Yeah, it really is. And in fact, I'm thinking we
should get on the trust side, Alesandra, to talk more
about trusts and some of the protection basics that trusts
afford families that are high net worth, and then tax
mitigation too, the tax mitigation strategies, and then also just
what a basic financial or excuse me, a basic trust
(13:13):
does for you, which is sometimes just simply wanting to
make sure that again, as you said, when you're grieving,
the last thing you want to worry about is, you know,
is my beneficiaries or are probate.
Speaker 3 (13:28):
And all those things? Yeah, yeah, I mean if my luckily,
you know, when my father passed, luckily my mother survived him,
but had something happened to my mom at the same
time and they both passed, they didn't have a trust
it would have been a financial mess for me and
my sister to handle. Luckily I have enough experience so
(13:52):
I would know, you know, where to go, but it
would have been a lot of work. It's been quite
a bit of work actually with me helping my mom
get things more organized, get a trust put in place
for her, have her you know, her property put under
and recorder under the name of her trust. Also also
it's basically your playbook. You know, we're not a state attorneys,
(14:16):
but we've dealt with this enough and had enough experiences
with with clients and unfortunately enough experience with clients and
spouses of those clients passing away that we would that
we have to go in and become basically the organizers
and say, okay, you know, do you have a trust?
Yes or no? What happens is when somebody does have
(14:38):
a trust. I mean, I don't know about you, but
it's like this sigh of relief almost, because that essentially
is the playbook. Yes, well when something when the event happens,
when somebody does pass and say, oh, you know, my husband,
my husband pass Unfortunately, all right, do you have a trust?
You know, if they have a trust, it goes a
lot smoother because that is a playbook, because everything is
(14:58):
spelled out how the assets are supposed to be distributed,
spread out. If there's different kids, you know to you know,
even my like my mom, me and my sister. Had
a conversation with my mom of you know, her wishes
when she passes away. What happens if she is incapacitated,
she goes in a coma who takes over, who has
(15:20):
authority on which accounts to be able to make sure
that her taxes are taken care of, her bills are paid,
so on and so forth. What should happen to the house?
Do you want that? Do you want your house to
be sold? Some some of our clients say, hey, I
have multiple homes and I don't want these to go
to my kids and just sell them all right away.
Or these different assets, I want some of them to
be They could be sold, but the others I want
(15:42):
them to continue to be managed. There's a process and
things that we can implore too to have that. Basically,
it's managing your assets from from your grave to carry out.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
Oh, go ahead, I was just going to say, you
know what the biggest mistake is that we see over
and over it again when it comes to trust. Not
that our clients don't have them, because usually they do.
Our higher net worth clients have them, but then they
don't have their accounts actually named in the trust, or
they haven't even recorded their properties. And sometimes understand of
(16:19):
the trust A.
Speaker 3 (16:19):
Lot of times don't understand that. You think that, you think.
I think a lot of times what happens is what
I've come across and probably you too, is Yeah, they've
done the trust and so therefore it takes care of everything,
or they've listed their accounts like, oh, I have accounts
at Bank of America, I have an account over here,
I have an account at Fidela, I have an account
with you guys with Schwab, and they've written it down
on the back of the trust. No, that does not
(16:42):
mean that it's under the trust. You have to actually,
if you have a brokerage account of taxable now all
retirement accounts and insurance, life insurance and duties, they don't
have a trust named that. You don't need it because
they already have a beneficiary listed. It's protected from probate.
But your savings accounts, your properties, you're you know, taxable
(17:03):
non qualified is what they're called. Investment accounts or bank accounts,
or any assets that you have cash in those you
want to go to entity itself. For example, I took
my mom to US bank. She had got a couple
of banks, and I took her to both banks, brought
in a copy of trust. They have their own respective paperwork,
(17:24):
and then we're able to put her account instead of
saying her her name or at the time was her
and my father as a joint changed it to under
the name of the trust. Same thing with the house,
went through the county and had her property recorded under
the name of the trust.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
You know, bare minimum if you just you don't know,
and maybe you're just don't want to have a trust done.
I know, you know, we have some family members that
the exact comment from this particular family member was, what
do I care when I'm gone?
Speaker 3 (17:57):
You know, you don't have any anybody to leave it to.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Well, no, they have people to leave it too, but
it just doesn't care about what happens after they're gone.
But bare minimum. One of the simplest things you can
do if you have accounts is you can add a beneficiary,
even to a taxable regular account like an individual account
(18:21):
or a joint account, you could add a designated beneficiary account.
In fact, some firms call them to D accounts transfer
on death, other firms call them designated beneficiary account. So
you know, that's something that again when you're when you're
working with us and we're doing your plan and we're
managing your investments, we're going to make sure they're titled
(18:45):
in the best way possible for you and your family
and your legacy and those things you know often are
overlooked or underappreciated. And then certainly, as I said that,
the type of advisor or advisory firm you are with,
(19:06):
in my opinion, if these aren't the types of conversations
you're you're having and it's just about, oh, here's my
portfolio and what return did it get me, You're you're
you're you're missing out, and I think you're being underserved
and not getting the value that you should be getting
out of the firm that that is representing you. And
(19:27):
I think the wave of the future is really advisors
that help and we do help with you know, helping
you find the right people to help you with your
tax returns. We help on tax mitigation ideas and strategies,
helping you get to the right, uh folks, for you know,
your estate planning needs that the trust actual you know,
(19:51):
uh documents and putting those into place. In fact, we've
we've had Alessandro on the car before and we'll have them,
I mean on the show and we'll have them again.
But again, these are all the things that we can
talk about in a consultation and there is absolutely no
obligation for that consultation. Of course, reviewing your investment portfolios
(20:16):
and giving you some ideas and letting you know how
we would do things differently and how that might be
better for you is going to be part of that conversation.
And if you're not ready to do that and want
to come to a free dinner workshop or first of
the year, you can call nine one six ninety six
(20:37):
seven thirty five hundred and sign up for our March
fourth dinner workshop at Wood Creek Golf Club in Roosevelt
in Roseville from five thirty to seven. Space is filling up,
so don't wait. And who should attend, Well, somebody who has,
you know, concerns about their investments. They're a state their legacy,
(21:01):
people where you know, your financial lives matter. People that
have you know, concerns about their portfolios and and everything
that's going on. In fact, we'll talk about uh in
our next uh uh conversation, you know, the government shut down, inflation,
the economy, you know, the markets in general, and always
(21:23):
we will give you tips and and and and ideas
on how we're doing things and why we think that's
the right uh process. So as always we like to
also talk about things that are going on that affect
investment and your portfolios potentially. And and here we are again.
I mean, we're getting to be a broken record on
(21:46):
these things. But that the government shut down just continues
to be a conversation. I think even if we get
back past this partial shutdown, it'll happen again. They're just
you know, they're in recess until the twenty third.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
You know.
Speaker 2 (22:02):
And that's a good point. I don't know what politicians
quite frankly do anymore for the most part, as far
as Congress and laws and making our economy and our
country better and safer and more prosperous. I think they
spend more time just fighting each other.
Speaker 3 (22:23):
And trying to stick their ground and you know, battling
the biggest issue of all which could drastically they're battling
the debate, right, yeah, and debate to just a debate
and trying to stick to their sides and have an
importance on that more so than what's going to be,
you know, best for the citizens of our country that
(22:46):
we represent.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
Politicians seem to care about the burgeoninge debt. I mean,
I shouldn't say burgeoning exploding debt. I mean, now you
know projections are fifty trillion dollars and then in the
next three to five years, that's ridiculous. I mean, it's
it's well, I mean, just two years ago when when
you join the show, you know, we were in probably
(23:13):
the mid to high twenties in trillions, which coaching forty.
And now we're right there at forty trillion. So fifty trillion,
one hundred trillion, I mean, where does it end? And
if you're thinking that bad budgeting, you know that it
won't have an effect. It will eventually have an effect. Why,
(23:33):
because the value of the dollar against other currencies will
be so low that prices will be drastically higher because
your purchasing power is drastically lower. And then how does
that affect your portfolio? It affects it drastically because if
(23:54):
we take the dollar right now, just we're not going
to use you know, scientific methods of compare garrison right now.
But if it goes down fifty percent from where it
is right now, as far as you know, marking it
to again or the UoN or the YEU ro.
Speaker 3 (24:12):
We'll have a lot of tours from from Europe and
UK and coming over right because you'll be cheap.
Speaker 2 (24:17):
Everybody would be coming here. Uh you know. But that
but again, our buying power to maintain your lifestyle will
cost you drastically more so, once again, it comes back
to are you prepared for that? If you don't have
a baseline inflation rate of at least two and a
(24:39):
half percent in in your plan that your portfolio has
to keep up with plus fees, you're you're going to potentially.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
Run out of money.
Speaker 2 (24:51):
You might be thinking, oh, you know, we're sixty five
years old, we're getting some social security, we have a
million dollars, we have no debt, and and that million
dollars is going to last us forever, and we're going
to keep doing our travel and buy our groceries and
going out to the meals we like to go out to,
and so on. And so forth. We'll guess what ten
(25:12):
years from now that million dollars.
Speaker 3 (25:14):
Everything's just got more. I mean I just did. I
just had some I had a painter at my house
paint this blew me away, Yeah, paint both of my
girls' rooms. And you know, and I'm pretty you're frugal. Yeah,
you're frugal. Let's let's just admit it. Well, don't you
want your advisor to be too? But I try, and look,
(25:36):
you know, I just go out and just like the
first guy that comes by and just gives a quote.
I mean I've had four people give me quotes just
because it's like, wow, the the hour, you know, the
per reat hour is just insane. I mean some of
the quotes well painting, and some wouldwork right, some like
(25:57):
I forget we call it.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Not Yeah, wouldwork is more skilled labor. I don't think
paint bord and gild. Yeah, don't. I apologize to any
painters listening, but well, I can't. I can't paint like
he painted.
Speaker 3 (26:09):
No you can't. But his lines were yes, exactly, yeah, yeah,
that's the point. And so I found a reasonable one
for an hourly rate. He did a great job, but
it ended up being a little more than I anticipated
because he just charged by the hour. Some of the
other guys that I got, they charged by the by
(26:29):
the job. But the ones that charged a couple of
them that charged by the job. When I broke it
down and asked him, like how how long is it
going to take? And so on and so forth, it
broke down to about two hundred dollars per hour was
an hourly rate just for the labor, not not including
the materials itself. And I just have a hard time
unless you have a pH d. And painting but point
(26:52):
point made, which stands for piled high and deeper, Like
you better be Bob Ross, and I should have a
happy little tree on my wall, right and that like, okay,
i'll pay, I'll pay two nd do Yeah, I'll pay
two hundred dollars an hour for that, right, but just
a paint of color and maybe another color and another
you know, like two tone, and some chair rel and
what have you. Nevertheless, it got done. But my point
(27:13):
is is even with me and trying to find a
reasonable deal out there or reasonable you know, reasonable work,
as far as quality work for reasonable rate, it still
is way more. So I'll just tell you to two bedrooms,
both to two tone or two colors of paint, right,
(27:34):
two different types of color of paint, chair relling one
and then some Ordon Batton. I don't even know if
that's how you call it. Yeah, but he did.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
He did mudd work and everything on the outside of
a house typically, but.
Speaker 3 (27:46):
Yeah, so it's in the inside with we're working.
Speaker 2 (27:48):
So it was.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
Yeah, it was a lot, a lot longer process with that.
Did a really really good job. But it cost me
four thousand dollars. Okay, rewind time. I know this is
a while ago, but I had a rental prop about
in twenty nineteen, okay, a house, single family residents with
vaulted ceilings, skylights, right, I had two. I had the
(28:10):
walls painted one color, the ceiling painted white. I had
all the trim painted. I had you know, the doors,
the moldings, all that stuff done and it took them
a couple of weeks for nineteen hundred dollars. Yeah, nineteen
hundred dollars.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
Yeah, I mean, And the reality is is that we
could see another leg up in prices again based on
debt and deficit, and it's it's it's again, it's almost
straight math for every trillion dollars of debt take on.
You see the value of the dollar shrink by a
(28:47):
proportional amount. Again, is it just an exact measurement. No,
But the worse and the higher risk our country becomes
from a credit quality from an investability type UH measure
on treasuries and other government UH type bonds, the the
(29:12):
higher that the prices of things are going to go.
Because it's just simple simple, I mean, nobody's gonna want
our our our treasuries to help, you know, print more
money and and keep paying for all these things.
Speaker 3 (29:27):
Well in order to budget risk. And if we don't
budget and if the debt continues to go higher, then
our credit rating of a country is going to continue
to be compromised. And then that's going to increase the
rate exactly of the treasury because it's becoming viewed as
more of a riskier.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
As riskier asset exactly right. And then when when the
the the payment on that debt at those interest rates
goes even higher, guess what happens, taxes will have to
go higher. And so it's a domino effect. And so
your financial planning and your preparedness for high inflation, you know,
(30:11):
is so crucial.
Speaker 3 (30:12):
Again, testing is stress testing it. I mean, I just
did this with a client and a review and he's
a and we had this conversation and he says, you know,
here's some of the things he's worried about. His concerns
is what if inflation continues to go up and costs
of everything goes up and so on and so forth.
So I said, okay, let's take your plan. You're you're
(30:33):
you know, ahead of the game. You're at like you're
at like ninety one percent probability success, which is a
great probability success to achieve all of his goals until
he's ninety four years old. But let's say let's so
I stress tested. I created a separate scenario and said, okay,
let's use this scenario, but we're going to increase the
rate of inflation from here on out and see how
(30:56):
it stresses your your overall plans from two and a
half after what I increased it to two and a
half to three. And he still was that little bit
and it was he still was fine. But we did
this exercise. Well, another client or prospect actually right, because
they thought, what if I just put my money in
a SMP index fund, that tracks the S and P
(31:18):
five hundred. It's done very very well, and I'll just
pull a little bit less out than the average return
of the S and P five hundred. And we gave
him a couple of different scenarios. He actually ran out
of money that he started in two thousand and six
because he had two thousand and eight. That happened. But
then we also ran a different scenario and says, Okay,
what if we just increased the inflation by a half
a percent, it lowered his probability success to less than
(31:44):
where we wanted to because if it's less than seventy
five percent, then we start having some concerns. And I
think it brought him to like sixty percent tile or
something like that, just a half a percent of inflation,
because yeah, I think it's compounded over the course of retirement,
which could be you know, twenty or thirty years. So
maybe in the very beginning years, like oh, my first
three years or five years of retirement, yeah, not going
(32:06):
to have much of impact. But if it continues on
the rate of inflation stays around there and it's higher
and higher for ten, fifteen, twenty thirty years, it has impact.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
Yeah, I mean it used to be the reality was,
you know, if I could get a three four percent
return on my seven figures withdrawal investment portfolio and withdrawal rate,
and if I kept at least that number and higher,
then I wouldn't run out of I wouldn't run out
(32:36):
of principle or have to reduce your lifestyle or exactly.
But now I think unless you're you know, really planning
for a six seven eight percent return during retirement and
getting to the amount of assets that will replace the
income for like you said, till age ninety four, ninety two,
(33:01):
ninety really at a minimum, but we like to go
to ninety two for men and ninety four for women.
Speaker 3 (33:07):
Yeah, the default in the plan is that sometimes some
of our clients laugh, I'm not going to last that long,
But we like to air on the conservative side and
say what if you do? Right? What if you do?
Speaker 2 (33:17):
I mean again, technology hopefully is changing enough that will
keep living longer and longer.
Speaker 3 (33:23):
Everybody will just have an AI chip in them and
it'll enhance Like if your cholesterol's two thirty is, it'll
just reduce it to the Wisemighty.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
Guys are brought to you by one source wealth Management
sec Number three one nine zero seven eight. For more information,
you can always visit our website. Our websitewisemighteyguys dot com.
You can scroll down to the bottom of the page
for important disclosures. There's literally dozens and dozens and dozens
of articles and videos and content if you want to
(33:56):
just explore get a little more information before you decide
to give us a call at nine one six ninety six,
seven thirty five hundred and again, don't forget if you're
you know, near retirement or already retired, come to our
workshop from five point thirty to seven at Wood Creek
Golf Club in Roseville on Wednesday, March fourth. Call us
(34:20):
again to get registered for that. Our SVP for it
at nine one six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred
and Uh. Let's talk a little bit about just you know,
this year. I think it's going the way we thought
it would be going as far as we knew there
would be volatility. We think we think it's going to
(34:43):
be a good year overall, but not without you know
some scary well, I don't peaks and valleys.
Speaker 3 (34:49):
I don't think it's Yeah, I think it would be
too high of an expectation to think it's going to
be as good as last twenty twenty especially twenty twenty three,
twenty twenty four, twenty twenty five, I.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
Mean three years in a row.
Speaker 3 (35:03):
Think about that, double digit turns and no, no, just
well last year we had we had a pretty big
draw down in April, but it was short lived. But yeah,
the S and P five hundred had healthy double digit
returns in twenty three, twenty four, and twenty five. So
to expect that we're gonna have healthy again, another healthy
double digit return this year without you know, volatility, I mean,
(35:27):
can have a double digit return, yes, but as we've
talked about in some previous recent episodes, you know, the
market on what is giving those returns is looking different
now than what it has in the past few years.
And so you know, it's it's paying attention of where
you need to shift and rebalance your assets within your
(35:50):
portfolio because some of the some of the winners in
the last few years are not the winners so far
this year, because it's it's broadening out into other areas
in different sectors of the market.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
Well, and if you if you look at the mag
seven here just you know, over over the course of
the last year.
Speaker 3 (36:09):
BAG seven. When is that gonna die?
Speaker 2 (36:11):
I know, but but I'm gonna get some wheels from
a car down.
Speaker 3 (36:14):
I'm gonna get some wheels from my car. It's going
to say MAG seven and they're going to be seven
spoke rims.
Speaker 2 (36:21):
But most of them are down double digits, you know,
from their highs, and so that we're already seeing that
that shift out of exhaustion.
Speaker 3 (36:32):
It's exhaust it's exhaustion, really it is. And they've gone
up so much in a relatively short period of time
that they've reached an exhaustive point. And now it's more
of like we've said before, you know, where does a
rubber meets the road. As far as all of this
AI euphoria and investing, that's all spend future. Yeah, it's
not profit. It's all spending for future potential, you know,
(36:56):
profits and growth. And now as we're well into it,
it's okay, let's start seeing how those profits are turning
out and do they turn out as fast as we think?
And then can all of this AI and investing be
supported by our infrastructure? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (37:14):
Reality is is that I think if you try to
narrow your scope so meaning, you know, diversification comes from
not only what type of sectors you're in within the
stock market, but it also comes from being in other
investment types outside of the stock market. And the focus
(37:35):
was so narrow in that period of time twenty three,
twenty four, twenty five to you know, chip makers, software companies,
you know, communication companies. Now it's getting back to at
least within the stock market category of investing. You're seeing
(37:57):
much better upside opportunities along with great dividends in healthcare,
pharma industrials, materials, your favorite one, you miss, I was
going there, energy and I just love that that, you know,
(38:19):
the the industry, especially the the you know, the shows
out there, the the television financial shows are relate to
the game. I mean, I've been saying and talking about
the importance of dividends and interests, true diversification into other
(38:39):
categories of investment to find you know, risk for the
best possible UH reward and and balancing that out through
the use of looking for things that pay you while
you're in the dividends and interests versus just going for
appreciation of price growth, you know. And now all of
(39:02):
a sudden, you see all these shows, articles going, oh,
look look for look for dividends, look for interest. Well
it's looked for, you know, other sectors, and it's it's always.
Speaker 3 (39:14):
Been one versus the other. And where is the total
return to you know, to go after or where is
it right now? Right? And so after after the dot
Com bust of two thousand, value actually superseded growth and
that was the area to be in until inflation and
things started to pop up, and then it was growth.
(39:37):
And then we had two thousand and eight happen and
interest rates were at zero, and so growth was the
name of the game for a long period time. And
some of that had to do with, you know, the
the interest rate environment and low inflationary environment that we're in. Right,
we had twenty twenty, which then reset it. Right, We
(39:57):
started raising interest rates from twenty fifteen and then started
and then paused it in twenty nineteen. And then in
twenty twenty we had COVID and they dropped it all
the way down to the Feds dropped all the way
down zero, and inflation was very very low until it
wasn't because of all the spending that they did, right,
But it created the environment, and then now you have
some of the new technology, the new I always want
(40:21):
to say revolution, but it's industrial revolution. Yeah, yeah, I
guess you can call it that. Fourth Industrial revolution is
what it was. The last one was the Internet, not
the Fourth kind. No, that's a scary movie. By the way,
you want to hear a funny story, real quick.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
Aliens are a great thing. Watch that.
Speaker 3 (40:39):
So here's a quick, thirty seconds funny story. So I've
you know, I like watching some of those movies, movies
sometimes just for entertainment. I have a heavy buddy of mine.
He's like, oh, I love that stuff. So I told him,
have you watched The Fourth Kind? And he's like no.
So it's like, you gotta watch you gotta watch it,
and put it off, put it off. Finally he put it.
He watched it, he says. All the family was in bed.
He watched it. He was in the family room by himself, right,
(41:02):
and he's like, holy cow, he says. But here's the kicker.
He says, it was about midnight the movie ended. I
turned my TV off. I'm already kind of in my
head right like, oh my gosh, he says. But then
I started walking out, shut everything down. The TV turned
on by itself and he looked at it, like what
the heck? He went and he turned it back off,
and like ten seconds later it turned back on again.
(41:25):
He's like, I could not sleep for like two to
three hours.
Speaker 2 (41:29):
Hey, you know, the the thing is is even presidents.
But I don't know if you saw that Obama was
talking about that. You know, he thinks there's alien life
you know.
Speaker 3 (41:43):
Well, I mean Earth. Yeah, well they know, they all
know more than we know. So but of what what
they've researched or found out or whatever. But and how
we got on that, I have no idea. But you
said the fourth the fourth revolution, he said, the fourth kind.
But yeah, so the euphoria of the new technology and
revolution of of what's what's to be had, you know,
(42:05):
help to bolster and go back into growth again, right,
and growth names. So now it's changing and the end
of last year and so far the beginning of this
year values back at play. Let's see if it continues on.
Speaker 2 (42:19):
But I don't think dividends, you know, making sure, especially
with dividends and interest in retirement ever goes out of favor. Right,
I don't think there's ever a time if you're if
you've got all the money you're actually going to earn
yes retirement from retirement that you go, oh, let me
go purely your growth.
Speaker 3 (42:36):
If you're younger and you got ten fifteen years before retirement,
you're probably still going after growth names.
Speaker 2 (42:42):
And you know what the best part about the plan
is or having a plan is it really aligns your
expectations for the radar return. You need to make what
the portfolio design should be and therefore what type of
return that portfolio would typically produce for you, and then
how that would help you sustain your life for the
(43:03):
next twenty thirty years in retirement. And to learn more
about that and to see us in person, you can
call nine one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred
to register for our Wednesday, March fourth seminar or give
us a call to come in for a no obligation
consultation and portfolio and financial planning review. Hope you enjoyed
(43:26):
listening to the Wise money guys, John Scambray and Giuseppe Baskani.
Have a wonderful Saturday afternoon and come back and listen
to us next weekend.
Speaker 3 (43:33):
By all, have a great weekend.
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