January 21, 2026 • 45 mins
Welcome to 2026. It's going to be a good era for your retirement plan. Together, we recap 2025 and all the highlights it's provided. Plus, hosts John and Giuseppe model and project out over the next 12 months. Let's get your portfolio in order. The Wise Money Guys!
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Good morning, and welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show,
our first one of twenty twenty six. I'm your co
host John Scambray, and I'm here with my partner Visconti.
And if you're listening to us for the first time,
we probably should mention who we are and why you
should listen. So both Giuseppe and I are certified portfolio managers.
We operate a registered investment advisory firm. We primarily use
(00:36):
Charles Schwab to custody our client's accounts. But the most
important thing is is we've been doing this a very
long time. We specialize in helping people who are retired
or about to retire manage their money. Mainly, and I
should say when I say manage their money, we help
them create a plan to manage their money, and then
(00:57):
we help them stick to that plan and check in
and make sure we're achieving the goals and objectives that
we help you create. Today is geez, I mean it
feels like the first day of business for me. I
don't know about you, but last.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
Yea, I have a hangover from the holidays.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
Well, last week was kind of kind of quiet, right,
I mean, just the way the holidays came. But so
here we are, Here we go. We did mention on
our show a couple of weeks ago some of the themes
that we thought we're going to happen in twenty twenty six.
We'll talk about those themes again because they're super important,
especially when it comes to how you may be rebalancing
(01:41):
your portfolio or hope, hopefully you're rebalancing your portfolio or
have done some adjusting based on how things ended in
twenty five, based on how things look in twenty six.
So that's what we're going to talk about. We'll do
a little recap I see here in your notes, and
then we'll talk about twenty twenty six, and hopefully you'll
(02:02):
get some good advice and well not advice, but information
that can help you make a decision when it comes
to who's going to help you in twenty twenty six
manage your money. Our number is nine one six ninety
six seven thirty five hundred. Again that number is nine
(02:22):
one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. You can
find our website and lots of information and the disclosures
that were required to put on our advertisements down at
the bottom of the page, so you can go to
wisemoney guys dot com. And as always when we talk
about investments, it is not intended to be advice, And
(02:44):
of course past performance is not a guarantee future results,
and all investments can lose money. So in fact, if
you ever hear anybody say this is absolutely guarantee you
cannot lose a dime, we always say, run and run
fast from that person and then call us at nine
(03:04):
on six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
Speaker 4 (03:08):
We had another positive year in twenty twenty five, so
three years in a row we had coming off of
twenty twenty two, which seems like some people.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
Already forgot about. But it was a rough year.
Speaker 4 (03:20):
It wasn't recession, but a lot of people and investment
analysts and economists were calling for recession in twenty two
and twenty three because we had a bear market. In
twenty twenty two, markets were down twenty to plus thirty percent,
bonds were down ten percent, and then twenty twenty three
came out with a bang, had a healthy double digit return,
(03:40):
twenty twenty four another double digit return, and last year
another double digit return, called.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
That super double digit return.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Well it was three years in a row.
Speaker 4 (03:50):
So you know, do we have another double digit return
or another healthy market in twenty twenty six, Well we'll
come to find out. We'll talk a little bit more
on what our thoughts are a little bit later, but
twenty five S and P five hundred finished at just
above sixteen percent, And we track that because we use
(04:12):
it not solely as just just the only benchmark, but
we look at it because it's.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
The body be sure of the stock market, right I get?
I mean, I guess you could use the wrestle two
thousand or something like or the ideal we'll trire or
five five thousand, we'll try.
Speaker 4 (04:26):
That's a that's a basket of everything in the that
SMP five hundred, because it has you know, five hundred
or just about five hundred stocks in US companies within it.
But it's just so it's been so out of balance
the past few years because because of seven it's seven
or ten names of that of the five hundred that
really and We've talked plenty about it that really carry
(04:47):
the big weight of the index. Nevertheless, when you're watching
financial news or news in general and they're talking about
the stock market and the stock market all time high,
they're either talking about the Dow Jones, which is the
oldest that's P five hundred, or NASDAC and a lot
of times when you look in at something like you
said earlier abroad, typically it's reference of the overall market
(05:08):
is S and P five hundred, so a little above
sixteen percent, which is a great year in the market,
not as good as it had been the previous two years,
which were in the twenty plus range in the previous
two years is what the S and P five hundred performed.
But we're very happy with our models that we've been tracking.
There's two in particular, one that's built around just growth
(05:31):
and been tracking it. Built a mid twenty twenty two,
been tracking it and then starting adding some clients that
it made sense for them.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
And their portfolios and the risk tolerance.
Speaker 4 (05:42):
Last year finished and it's only ten names, so basically
it pulls from the S and P five hundred it
only it only picks ten names from that you're only
invested in ten stocks at one time. It takes a
look at it every month to see if there needs
to be any changes, if we need to humor it's
we I mean base speaking French like we we we yes, well,
(06:05):
you know, saying it pulls it does this? I mean
it's our model hour yes, hour, So not it like
it's some standone you know, uh mind like yeah, But anyway,
it reminds me of a some cartoon that my kids
watched and there's like a bunch of seagulls.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
I'm trying to think of what it is. Anyways, there's
a bunch of seagulls that come in.
Speaker 4 (06:29):
There's like this object, and everybody wants to go after
this object, and then the seagulls all end all.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Mine Mine, Mine, Mine, Mine mine.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
This is the type of value you can get from
this show.
Speaker 4 (06:41):
When I think about the when I think about the movie,
I'll come back to it.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Anyways.
Speaker 4 (06:47):
Uh so our model that's growth oriented, trying to go
after just the gusto. Albeit it has volatility, but it
goes after the gusto finished a little about forty seven
percent last year, comparative to the S and P five hundred,
which finished at just above sixteen percent, So very proud
(07:07):
of that. Leaps and bounds above what the S and
P five hundred did.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
And here's here's go ahead. Finish your thought, because then
I have one go ahead, well more than one.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
I'm more curious to hear what you have to say.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
Well, you know, when you talk about those kinds of numbers,
even the sixteen percent and three years in a row
of double digits, this is the danger zone for people.
This is where people make just gigantic mistakes, get their comfortable,
they start wanting to get on the bandwagon, and they
want to buy you know, the investments that helped, you know,
(07:40):
drive such lofty, great you know, three year, multi year returns,
And it's not going to be the same companies that
this year. Yeah, some of them might do well. I
think I think there's some upside to Amazon and Microsoft
and Google so on and so forth, But I don't
know is Nvidia going to have the.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
Same sort of Is tech gonna lead lead lead the
market this year like it did the last few years.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
And it might be energy that is going to be
needed to drive tech as far as utilization, right, I mean,
tech is great, but but again you have to put
the application to use, and in order to put the
application to use, when you're talking about AI and data
centers and all that they need power and power was
(08:29):
kind of a forgotten sector last year.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Well, it's been talked about back half of last year.
It's been starting.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
Now you're starting to see some lift and clients are
starting to you know, notice that. Okay, yeah, hey, maybe
John did know what he was talking about when he said,
you know, energy, everything begins and ends with energy, and
every type of energy to power today, which is tomorrow
(08:56):
because yesterday's tomorrow is today, by the way. Confusing, but
but you can't do anything without energy. So where I
was going with that is, I think the mistakes that
that are made here when it comes to portfolio, uh,
construction and management and ongoing management of your investments is
(09:17):
to not do anything to just think that that wave
is going to be the same wave that it was
last year. No, I think there's definitely, you know, going
to be more of a shift as far as what
are the high flyers from from a stock you know,
multiple this year versus last year, and it was all
(09:38):
about the AI chips, right and semiconductors last year. This year,
I think it's going to be more about auto automation, robotics,
things of that nature versus you know, the things that
are underpinning UH are technology and the power that it
(09:59):
will take well to put all of this new technology.
Speaker 3 (10:03):
And the other thing is it doesn't always have.
Speaker 4 (10:05):
To revolve around AI. I mean, so far this year,
what's been doing very well is some energy names, healthcare, biotech.
I've been actually doing better than some of the tech
names out there so far this year. I mean we're
only you know, like ten days into it so far,
but we'll see if that continues. And it doesn't mean
that technologies. I'm just going to focus on that and
(10:27):
have my portfolio, you know, amongst several different names. But
then you're all in the technology sector. You're not diversified, right.
You could be in a bunch of different names and
maybe you have this company and that company and that company,
but all revolves around AI.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
You're not going to be.
Speaker 4 (10:42):
Totally diversified because if the AI thing turns around or
it gets disrupted, then all those all those stocks that
you have in companies you know can take it hit so.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
Well, or if the if the institutions that you know,
wield the money especially money in retirement plans and things
like that are primarily in funds and models, and all
of a sudden you start mathematically coming to the realization that, okay,
there was probably a trillion dollars of spend in the
(11:13):
development of spend investment of AI, but no revenue at
least not revenue proportion to the spend. And so when
you start going, okay, the fact that companies went up
double and in some cases triple digits because they decided
(11:34):
to spend and invest in AI. But then from a
profitability perspective, when you take on those expenses and you
don't get your there's no immediate return on investment, there's
no immediate revenue will shoot. You know your share price
is going to come under pressure when those numbers start
hitting this year, and by the way, it's a it's
(11:56):
an earnings month, and so you know, you need to
stay tuned because we're just getting into tidbits of what
could really be a good year or a bad year
for a lot of people if they make mistakes. So
stay tuned. You're listening to the wise money guys, John
Scambray and j Seppe vescani Here Certified Portfolio managers who
specialize in helping people who are retired are about to
(12:18):
retire manage their money. If you like the show and
want to have a conversation with us with no obligation,
give us a call at nine one six ninety six
seven thirty five hundred. Again that numbers nine one six
ninety six seven thirty five hundred. So yes, things were
a little bit topsy turvy and one sided in twenty
twenty five. But even with that, you know, the core model.
Speaker 4 (12:42):
On the downside, on the upside, because we had April
in May, and you know, market came down because of
the tariff, but a lot of the tech names had
some big hits too.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
Oh some were down fifty percent right in April, and
the market went down overall twenty percent.
Speaker 4 (12:57):
But yeah, there's some names that were forty fifty percent.
A lot more tech names had run up quite a bit.
But on the flip side, when things started coming back,
FEDS were talking about potentially starting to cut rates again and.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
Tariffs were starting to get delayed and relaxed.
Speaker 4 (13:13):
Then AIU Fouria came back and we saw some big names.
Case in point, one candidate within our not candidate, but
one position that's still a position within our S and
P top ten. The growth oriented portfolio triggered WDC Western
Digital and August beginning of August and since then just
(13:35):
from August until now, since then it's up to I
think it's last I check was around one hundred and
sixty percent.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
Yeah, it's been from August, but that's crazy. But then
there's even way bigger ones like the Pallanteer.
Speaker 4 (13:48):
Grow Pallenteer was from that's been in there longer I
want to say October of twenty five, actually maybe twenty four.
It might be then there for almost definitely more than
a year, and that's up over three hundred percent. That's
had some volatility, but I mean still we'll think about
a Palenteer. For example, when I first introduced you to
(14:10):
the radio show, we were talking about that in early
twenty twenty four when it was like a twelve to
twenty dollars.
Speaker 3 (14:17):
Stock and gold.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
So you mentioned that was gold, gold, gold, buy gold,
buy palunteer, by this, by that, the other. But that's
neither here nor there. At the point is that themes
are important and recognizing, you know, themes is a big
part of our job and the way that we come
up with these themes is through research, through reading, and
(14:43):
through process and through being students and full more than
full time students of this game. You can't expect the
same level of return every year from doing the same
idea cole thing. The market as a whole, the stock
market as a whole has averaged over the last fifty
(15:07):
years about an eight nine percent return. So if you're
now getting greedy.
Speaker 4 (15:13):
And because you're used to the market for the last years,
the last three years where double you know, good sized
double digit returns, it's going to bite you and we
don't want to see that happen.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
Come in, let us put eyes on what you have
and what what what you're doing, and make some suggestions
on what we think you should do to improve your portfolio.
Speaker 4 (15:36):
Well more importantly, put a plan together so you have
something you have a roadmap to then figure out what
your portfolio and your investment assets and how they should
be and the hard money that you've earned right over
your lifetime and how it should be allocated based on
your actual roadmap and your plan to ligne.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
Now.
Speaker 4 (15:55):
A lot of times you know and what you're getting
at I'm guessing is you know you just had a
great twenty three, twenty four and even last year, and
so you're just you're just throwing it and saying, I'm
gonna invest right, I'm investing in this fund or a
tech fund or this or that or whatever, and I'm
just going to continue to Well, do you need twenty
percent a year return?
Speaker 3 (16:15):
You know?
Speaker 4 (16:15):
And along with that, do you need the risk that
comes along with twenty per because it's not going to
be a double digit return every year. There's going to
be downes like we just you know, recently went through
in twenty twenty two that a lot of people forget
because we've had, you know, such good returns in the
past few years.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
So do you need that? Is that what you're needing.
Speaker 4 (16:33):
And asking for in order to obtain all of your
financial goals that are important to you and your family.
If not, then that's where we can go through do
an analysis and say, hey, you need to make some
changes here, either to your overa allocation, to the granular
steps of here's some positions, so on and so forth.
This is what it's going to mean. And if you
do these different adjustments, then this is how it's going
(16:55):
to align better with your plan. Reduce some risk, take
unnecessary risk off the table, not that you're not making
any returns, but you're making the returns that you need
to make based off of your plan and your trajectory
and your timeline without just throwing risk risk out there
just for the sake of Hey, I want to try
and do a hundred you know, double my money in
the next two years or three years.
Speaker 2 (17:16):
Which would be lovely but not reality.
Speaker 3 (17:18):
And people have done it.
Speaker 4 (17:19):
And we just gave you an example of one position
within our growth portfolio that you know, you've already more
than doubled your money, but that's not But again, even
though we are able to do that, we've tracked it
and the portfolio did forty seven percent last year.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
I'm not banking on it to do I'm not. I'm not.
Speaker 4 (17:39):
I don't have the goal or trajectory. You say, like, oh,
did forty seven last year. I'm I'm I'm I'm going
to bet that this thing's going to do forty seven
percent or better this year.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
And that doesn't mean the person's account grew by forty
seven percent last year, because again, it would still come
out not investing all in one, you know, or over
investing in one segment opportunity or asset class of the market,
and correlation is important. So again, when you do the
(18:07):
plans that you're speaking of, it might say that, hey,
you know, a realistic return for you to accomplish your needs,
not the wants and wishes, because that's the other thing
will help you identify. But what is it you need
from a return perspective that I call minimum return to objective?
And if that says six seven, eight percent, well that's
(18:28):
what your core portfolio should be. And then you might
have a portion that's in a more aggressive stock model
where it's individual stocks that are designed to, you know,
go for a more aggressive growth rate of return on
your money. But when it's only a piece and a
(18:50):
very calculated piece, then it's appropriate from a risk perspective
because it shouldn't throw off your plans and and your
goals to accomplish your needs first because of you, right,
if you have way too much money and something that's
too risky, if that blows up, it blows up your
whole entire potential retirement plan and your future during retirement,
(19:16):
and we won't let you do that. So a lot
of people, you know, they see the types of returns
on certain positions and they're, well, why didn't we put
all of our money in that, Well, because nobody has
a crystal ball, you know. So it's important. And that's
why I said at the beginning, this is a really
(19:36):
risky timeframe right here, because people's objectives start getting skewed,
they start getting skewed with what's right. Yeah, the execute
just done it for the past few years.
Speaker 4 (19:48):
I'm expecting it to continue on. You know, it's it
becomes in distress. It's like when you know me and you,
when we're like in our teenage or young twenties, we're indestructible. Yeah,
we could do anything, jump off anything, roll drive anything,
get into a motorcycle, you know, and you can recover.
And you know, now I'm in my forties, year in year,
in your fifties and totally different game.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
Now. Yeah, everything hurts now more so for.
Speaker 3 (20:13):
Me behindsight's twenty twenty.
Speaker 4 (20:15):
And so that's what we do, is we use not
only our combined experience O over fifty years personally, but
then also the experience that we have with all of
our clients, right because everybody has a different story, everybody
has a different background, and so we know, you know, well,
the culmination of everybody's experiences are personally with all the
clients that we have been able.
Speaker 3 (20:34):
To service over the years, we take that and.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
Are able to tell our clients, you know, when we're
drawing out a plan, answering some of the questions and
what ifs, especially is what might be around that corner
right ahead in time? What are some of the things
that you want to potentially prepare for of the what ifs?
Speaker 2 (20:54):
Right So here's here's some of the things in twenty
twenty six that we I mean, again, if you're not
looking out for these things for yourself, hopefully your advisor,
your advisory team, you know, whoever you're working with is
looking for these, you know, challenges that will make twenty
(21:14):
twenty six rocky. And once again it's it's all tied
to interest, inflation and employment is some of the biggest
headwinds potentially out there that could be tailwinds. It just
depends on how the how things shape up early here
in the in the first quarter. And then on top
of that, you still have you know, geopolitical issues Nowezuela, Venezuela, Cuba,
(21:42):
Russia's been you know, following Cuban oil tankers with subbs,
and so to another Cuban missile crisis type thing. In
the Latin America areas seems to expand instead of shrink. Yes,
and so tariffs are still a big thing. But here's
the other thing that's coming right around the corner. Let
(22:05):
me guess guess what it is. I want to hear
you say, because you're just so emphatic about another government
shut down, and that's going to cause volatility. I think
not only that, not only.
Speaker 4 (22:18):
That, but we have earnings, So we have all the
big max seven names, some of the big seven names
that are going to be reported. We have FOMC at
the end of the months, which is going to be
interest rate decision. And in May, fed pal is going
to be gone. So who's going to replace them? Maybe maybe, Yeah,
we'll see who's going to replace them? And how's that
(22:38):
going to impact the market.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
Well, hopefully, And this is one of my favorite topics,
as you know, is that we see some sort of
revamping of the structure of the FED. Right, I mean,
the the dual mandate, the dot plot, I mean that
is such an antiquated philosophical view of our economy.
Speaker 4 (22:58):
But the dual mandate doesn't really matter if there's sitting
and they're sitting there and they're forecasting, because if they
just go based off of the dual mandate, that's thrown
out the window. That's thrown out the window. Dual mandate's fine,
but it's used differently now. Back then Alan Greenspan days
and prior, it was if one of these things or
both of these things get.
Speaker 3 (23:17):
Out of whack, then we have to act, right.
Speaker 4 (23:19):
But when they were at a whack during we had
when we had inflation, it was, oh, we see that
inflation is above where we're comfortable. But we think in
the next six to twelve months, because of supply chain
and this and that and big bird and R two
D two, it's going to come back and then we'll right,
that's the problem.
Speaker 2 (23:38):
Well, the real the biggest problem of the FED is
that they think growth is the problem. Right, Since when
is a growing economy a problem, but a growing economy
could leave to lead to some inflationary pressure. If productivity
is it becomes an issue, right. And then and obviously
(23:58):
the supply side issues. If if you know, demand starts
out pacing supply, then once again you know it's those
things or if you don't manage your checkbook well the
next few years, then you're going to put pressure on
the dollar. The dollar is going to be worth less
and i e. Hyper inflation. So there's a lots of
(24:20):
those same themes that if you're mismanaging your money, or
if it's being mismanaged for you from a risk perspective,
you absolutely need to give us a call at nine
one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. John'scambray and
Jaseepi Vescani here certified portfolio managers who specialize in helping
(24:40):
people who are retired are about to retire manage their money.
If you like the show and have a want to
have a conversation with us with no obligation, give us
a call at nine one six nine six seven thirty
five hundred. Again that numbers nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred. So just to recap a little bit,
we have two portfolios that are are our main love
(25:00):
if you will, as far as on the stock side,
and then of course our our new love is structured notes,
which we run two models that are when people have
you know, a moderate or moderate aggressive or aggressive risk tolerance,
then we'll put you in a portion in the the
(25:22):
growth portfolio when you're more aggressive. If you're less aggressive,
then we'll put you in the moderate growth and income portfolio.
Speaker 4 (25:30):
But well, let me take let's take it a step
back just in case, you know, put in Layman's terms
in general.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
Uh, when we're when.
Speaker 2 (25:40):
We're working with we're layman or just people are laymen?
Where are where are Laman? Is what country is up from? Anyways?
Speaker 3 (25:47):
Layman?
Speaker 2 (25:48):
Oh yeah, that makes sense. It's from Laymany. Sorry I
don't it's the first one of the year.
Speaker 4 (25:57):
So in general, we're working with clients and we're figuring out,
we put together a plan and figure out, okay, what's
needed from the assets that you've grown or maybe you
already have some of them invested or not. How do
we allocate this? You can be anywhere from conservative to aggressive.
And then within that assets are going to be diversified
through different asset classes. So one of them is stocks.
(26:20):
That's the two models that we're talking about right that
is focused on stocks that we've talked about in the
beginning and kind of the performance and how it's done
against S and P five hundred. But then there's other
asset classes too, So it's not just that it's bonds,
it's alternatives, it's real estate holdings. And when you think
of real estate, you could have We have clients that
(26:41):
have hard real estate where they own them. It's very common,
but it could be that, Hey, I want to own
real estate, but I don't want to actually buy the
hard asset, manage it, find a.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
Tent, or I don't want to single property, or I
don't want to sing a property, but I want to
be able to hold a property.
Speaker 3 (26:55):
Yeah, I want to be invested in.
Speaker 4 (26:56):
So we have investments both public and private, that we
have access to that we put a little sliver within
their portfolio. And so now you have different asset classes
within your portfolio. Right, that kind of act act as
a balancing act. And it's not all in one type
of thing, not all eggs in one basket, because you
can't predict exactly what's going to be doing well at
(27:16):
the end of you know, this year, for example, or
the next year, stock's going to do well, or fixed
income or real estate.
Speaker 3 (27:22):
So on and so forth.
Speaker 4 (27:23):
So depending on if you're conservative, you know then you're
going to have most likely less exposure to stocks.
Speaker 3 (27:30):
And these couple of models that we've been talking about.
Speaker 4 (27:33):
Versus if you're more aggressive, you can have more exposure
to stocks because that's the more growth component to get
you that extra growth in the higher potential returns within
the portfolio. But one is purely growth oriented, more volatile
going after the gusta which is what we talked about before.
(27:54):
That performed just above forty seven percent right last year.
The other, which is more common in our clients because
more of our clients aren't aggressive and trying to just
grow their assets, right, They're either nearing retirement or in
retirement and trying to generate some cash flow. So how
do you do that with a stock portfolio and still
(28:15):
generate cash flow but have a you know, attractive return
or not giving up the overall average return just for
cash flow. And so we've built a model. And you know,
when I partnered with John the beginning of twenty twenty four,
that was kind of the project that I got excited about,
(28:35):
was build something that's custom that we can replicate and
put in client portfolios that makes sense that they can
to have exposure stocks but will generate a decent cash flow.
So the other one we call our core stock portfolio.
And this has thirty holdings. But the the caveat to
it is that a majority of them, you know, twenty
(28:58):
of the thirty names have to be some sort of
dividend paying stock.
Speaker 3 (29:03):
And the average that.
Speaker 4 (29:04):
It's been averaging over the past year is north of
three percent. Sometimes it's three point one, sometimes it's three
point three percent as far as.
Speaker 3 (29:13):
A dividend yield now dividend yield.
Speaker 4 (29:15):
And we're saying that that is the cash flow that
that stock or portfolio generates, that you know, spits out
that you can either reinvest in the stock and buy
more of the stock, or some of our clients take
those dividends out and they use that as basically their
income right to pay for things, pay for expenses.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
What have you.
Speaker 4 (29:35):
Wasn't built to try and beat S and P. Five hundred,
but so far it's done a good job. And last year,
the overall return of that portfolio has performed at just
over twenty and a half percent last year while averaging.
Speaker 3 (29:50):
North of a three percent dividend yield on the portfolio.
So proud of that as well.
Speaker 4 (29:56):
Again, past performance is not indicative of future results, but
we continue to monitor that and make any necessary adjustments.
Definitely reviewed on a monthly basis to see if there
is any tweaks that we need to make of it
and haven't built to just beat the S and P
five hundred for growth because it's income first, growth second,
(30:17):
but been pretty proud of where it's going and we're
going to continue.
Speaker 2 (30:20):
To work and we do this. We're fiduciaries. So since
it's the first part of the year and we're talking
a little bit about, you know what we do, so
obviously how we do it is important. So we are
discretionary money managers. We're fiduciaries, means we don't work on
a commission. We are fee only, so that's important. At
(30:43):
least we strongly believe that whoever is manager money and
and help you create and maintain and hopefully achieve your
plan is that they're doing it on a non commission basis.
We think that's super important. So just to let you
know that's what we are is a fiduciary firm and
(31:06):
a fee based firm like Fisher Investments. Fisher Investments, I
love it, he he he says it like there's something
you know unique about what they do. By the way,
we do good. When you do good, all that means
is they're a fee based fiduciary firm as well, So.
Speaker 3 (31:24):
It's true, it's true with us as well.
Speaker 4 (31:26):
But the other but the other thing that I think
is important to note is that we're agnostic. So we
we because number one, we're not focusing on selling products
and solutions that pick an upfront commission to us. We're
agnostic of what's inside of your portfolio. We don't care, right,
We're not. We're not tied to any specific investment firm
(31:49):
and mutual fund company or anything like that.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
We don't get any kickbacks or anything like that.
Speaker 4 (31:54):
We use Schwab as a custodian, We have interactive brokers,
we have Fidelity as custodians, So it doesn't really matter
to us.
Speaker 3 (32:02):
What matters is what is needed per your.
Speaker 4 (32:05):
Plan after we design it, and then what makes sense
of the portfolio and how can we basically give best
bang for the bucks or you're getting the returns that
you need to over time without taking any unnecessary risk.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
Speaking of unnecessary risk, I really love these structured notes
that we've been working with a partner to have created
that we've put a lot of clients' assets in, and
the reason being so when they're kind of on the
fence or in the middle of the road from a
risk perspective. Okay, they're not aggressive, they're not conservative, but
(32:42):
they want more of a stock like return without having
one hundred percent stock like risk. Well, that's where a
structured investment comes in. And again we don't put you
all of people's money into any one thing or into
anyone category, as we mentioned before, but these structured notes
(33:03):
are really kind of a fixed income not kind of,
but are a fixed income investment that has a stock
like return. And so the one that we're going to
put some of our client's money in this next week
is a three year investment and it has a coupon
which is paid by the issuer. In this case the
(33:24):
issuer is City Group, and the coupon was nine point
was it annually? Yeah, nine point seven percent annually, paid
out one twelfth a month as long as the indices
that it tracks and it tracks three main ones aren't
down any given month from your starting point thirty percent
(33:49):
or more. Now, think about that. If I'm just in
a regular stock fund or individual stock and I'm looking
for a eight or nine percent return on average that
the stock market has has has done over any given decade,
(34:09):
over a long term, I can get this with a
thirty percent kind of cushion barrier, which is a cushion.
That just means that as long as the S and
P five hundred or the NASDAC again, each one tracks
different indices, so it's just we're talking at a high
(34:30):
level right now. Then you know, I've got a pretty
good comfort level and a pretty good probability not guaranteed. Again,
remember I said in the beginning, if somebody says this
is guaranteed, run away, and I hate to say this,
but you could think of an index annuity if you will.
They use the same sort of strategy to you know,
(34:51):
get you a high return with reducing your exposure on
the downside. And so nine point seven you know, annually
for three years. That is that is fixed and written
on the note, and as long as the indices, as
I said that it tracks, stay above its minus, stay
(35:14):
above minus thirty percent, you get paid that nine point
seven percent each of the three years. Now, the only
other downside to it is it could go below minus
thirty percent, but you'd be going below minus thirty percent
your stock fund or stock potentially anyway, and you don't really.
Speaker 3 (35:35):
You don't get paid out that month, but it just
goes on to the next month, and if it's.
Speaker 2 (35:38):
Might get paid that.
Speaker 3 (35:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (35:39):
If the market recovers, but it's down twenty seven percent,
it's not down thirty more, you get paid up.
Speaker 2 (35:44):
Yeah, that's the beauty. But the real thing that we
keep experiencing is that they get called early. So as
rates continue to go down or be volatile, a lot
of the issuers in this case, the one that we're
doing next week, City Group, they can refinance, they can
pay back investors early, and then all of a sudden,
(36:05):
you were so excited about the nine point seven percent
and then we got to find uh something else for you.
That's that's as good. So that's the other downside of
it is that it could be called early, which is
the downside of fixed income investments in general, bonds in general.
Speaker 4 (36:21):
Yeah, the ultimate risk would be something financially happens with
City and then you know they're not paying the nine
point seven or your principle.
Speaker 2 (36:28):
Back boy, And if a bank the size of City
Group defaults, Well, we already saw that two thousand bonds,
and I.
Speaker 4 (36:35):
Mean and look, we saw that in two thousand and
eight right, and look, didn't want to let anything default
that happens.
Speaker 2 (36:42):
So but that's that is that is the ultimate risk.
But but let's face it that we're talking about today
that you know, people are going to want, you know,
high returns because that's what they've been used to now
the last three.
Speaker 4 (36:57):
Other ways to achieve a a good, healthy return.
Speaker 3 (37:01):
But how do I do it without taking unnecessary risk?
Speaker 4 (37:04):
And these are just some of the things that we
look at outside of just the plain vanilla stocks and bombs.
Speaker 2 (37:09):
It's just one additional arrow in our quiver of arrows
to help people, you know, achieve whatever their goals and
objectives are for their money each year. So our number
is nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. Again,
that numbers nine one six, nine six seven thirty five hundred.
(37:30):
We got more to talk about. If you like the
show and want to have a conversation with us with
no obligation, give us a call at nine one six
nine six seven thirty five hundred. Again, that numbers nine
one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. And this
is the uh the time where you know, we can
talk about some of the themes again.
Speaker 3 (37:50):
That you're gonna saying like the final kid.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
I didn't know what we were going to talk about. That's
the thing about doing a live show.
Speaker 4 (38:00):
Yeah, but so final countdown.
Speaker 2 (38:03):
But let's let's let's let's relook at the things in
twenty twenty six. Now we mentioned them briefly, but they're important,
so they're worth mentioning again because it really is, as
we were discussing during the break, Uh, we're seeing mark
and we're seeing a rotation, right, and we're we're seeing
market movers be different, as already mentioned than what the
(38:25):
market movers were in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 4 (38:28):
So you know, again, so there's been a little bit,
you know, a little so far at the beginning this
year has been a shift out of tech stocks and
into other sectors. DAL is out performing NASZAC, which is,
you know, completely different from last year. It was all
about the NASDAC and the tech stocks within the Nasdaq,
and this is broadening, broadening out beyond AI themes, healthcare, energy, biotech.
(38:55):
I've all been seeing pretty positive you know, returns and spikes.
Small cap we haven't mentioned that yet, but small cap stocks,
which all that means is just smaller sized companies, and
I've been seeing some of the biotech pharmaceuticals that have
been getting some good momentum this year. But small cap
(39:18):
stocks can have been doing fairly well. They did some
They did well back half of last year, and primarily
that was driven from the Feder rate, the Federal Reserve
cutting rates again. Now if that theme continues this year,
where there's more cutting, whether it be from Jerome Pale
or the new FED chairman that's going to be coming in,
whoever that might be, and maybe they favor and is
(39:42):
more onside with the Trump and they decided to cut
another one percent of interest overnight interest rates this year.
That could be favorable to small cap stocks. So that's
a sector to look for as well. And emerging markets
actually have been surging outside of China, not only just
general but more on the AI theme and revolving around that,
(40:06):
and then emerging markets they did actually fairly well last year.
International did, but emerging markets have been kind of coming
out of the world work. So there could be different areas,
like we said before, outside of the typical names you
hear about all the time in video, Tesla, so on
and so forth. Although we are excited about Tesla and SpaceX,
which SpaceX just announced and they are going to be
(40:29):
going IPO here trying to and there's some offerings. Actually
we're trying to get some clients, a couple of clients
into SpaceX specifically.
Speaker 3 (40:39):
But those are things that we look at as well
as you know, private.
Speaker 4 (40:42):
Equity, alternatives, real estate, all these different asset classes or
or different investments within asset classes you typically don't have
access to, you can't get access to as a real
retail trader, and further diversify your portfolio outside of just
a vanilla stocks and bonds realm that most people have
(41:04):
when they're just trading and they have a portfolio of
mutual funds or etops.
Speaker 2 (41:07):
Yeah, I think it's worth mentioning. We had a client,
she had family partners on a property. Property sold. There
was no debt on the property for you know, six
million dollars ish. You know, each of the family members
I believe there was four, got about a million and
a half dollars. Gosh. It was an inherited property, so
(41:31):
there was almost no cost base to the property and
low cottages depreciated, so you know, cap gains were going
to potentially be huge, and we helped that client put
it into a private real estate investment trust a very
(41:51):
good one where it was ten thirty one. We helped
them set up the intermediary that's one of the nation's best,
at least one of the nation's largest, where the money
transferred from title to the intermediary and then from the
intermediary to the new real estate investment for the client
(42:13):
and the client.
Speaker 4 (42:14):
This is an investment where it's another hard asset that
they need to manage.
Speaker 3 (42:17):
It's a portfolio that's professional managed particular institutional basis.
Speaker 2 (42:22):
This particular real estate investment trust has around three hundred
properties in it and you know, very high occupancy in
the in the ninety percent occupancy rate, which is very good.
But the other part that's just fantastic when you look
(42:42):
at the the potential cash flow it was it was
higher for this client on her cut than what she
was receiving on the bigger property with the rest of
the family members when they divvied it all up. And
here's the real wonderful thing about these because the overall
(43:05):
portfolio passes on its overhead and expense and depreciation and
costs to each of the owners and shareholders of the investment.
The six point one two percent annualized rate of return
or distribution rate is mostly not taxable. You heard that right,
(43:30):
So mostly not taxable six point one two percent. Now,
that might fluctuate a little bit as far as what
the annualized cash flow is. But we can help you
literally with liquidating a property. It has to be an
investment property. It can't be a primary residence and where
(43:53):
you it's highly appreciated over you know, whatever the timeframe is,
and you don't want to pay cap gains. There are
wonderful investments out there. We set up pretty one. We
do all the heavy lifting for you. It gets networked
into your you know, your trust, your joint account, your
(44:13):
individual account, whatever the case may be. Can't be in IRA.
And the income off of it is almost all of
it not taxed. Over ninety percent of the income paid
out to the owners of the shares and the properties
aren't getting taxed on that cash flow.
Speaker 3 (44:35):
Yeah, that's all they've been able to manage it.
Speaker 4 (44:37):
And that's not a guarantee, but they've been doing such
a good job of passing along, you know, the expenses
and the depreciation and ten thirty one their own properties
into other properties with the portfolios and passing those tax
savings on to their owners and investors.
Speaker 2 (44:53):
So if you like more information on anything that we
talked about, or more importantly, want to meet for a
no obligation consultation, and I recommend doing it early this year.
I think we can help you set up a pretty
good year. We don't know. We think it's going to
be challenging, but overall we both think the year should
be a good one. So let us help you take
(45:13):
advantage of the themes that are out there and let
us help you not make mistakes in twenty twenty six.
Give us a call at nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred. Hope you enjoyed listening to the
wise money guys, John scambray a Giuseppe Vescani. Have a
happy Saturday and come back and listen to us next weekend.
Speaker 3 (45:31):
Bye, I have a great weekend.
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Good morning, and welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show,
our first one of twenty twenty six. I'm your co
host John Scambray, and I'm here with my partner Visconti.
And if you're listening to us for the first time,
we probably should mention who we are and why you
should listen. So both Giuseppe and I are certified portfolio managers.
We operate a registered investment advisory firm. We primarily use
(00:36):
Charles Schwab to custody our client's accounts. But the most
important thing is is we've been doing this a very
long time. We specialize in helping people who are retired
or about to retire manage their money. Mainly, and I
should say when I say manage their money, we help
them create a plan to manage their money, and then
(00:57):
we help them stick to that plan and check in
and make sure we're achieving the goals and objectives that
we help you create. Today is geez, I mean it
feels like the first day of business for me. I
don't know about you, but last.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
Yea, I have a hangover from the holidays.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
Well, last week was kind of kind of quiet, right,
I mean, just the way the holidays came. But so
here we are, Here we go. We did mention on
our show a couple of weeks ago some of the themes
that we thought we're going to happen in twenty twenty six.
We'll talk about those themes again because they're super important,
especially when it comes to how you may be rebalancing
(01:41):
your portfolio or hope, hopefully you're rebalancing your portfolio or
have done some adjusting based on how things ended in
twenty five, based on how things look in twenty six.
So that's what we're going to talk about. We'll do
a little recap I see here in your notes, and
then we'll talk about twenty twenty six, and hopefully you'll
(02:02):
get some good advice and well not advice, but information
that can help you make a decision when it comes
to who's going to help you in twenty twenty six
manage your money. Our number is nine one six ninety
six seven thirty five hundred. Again that number is nine
(02:22):
one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. You can
find our website and lots of information and the disclosures
that were required to put on our advertisements down at
the bottom of the page, so you can go to
wisemoney guys dot com. And as always when we talk
about investments, it is not intended to be advice, And
(02:44):
of course past performance is not a guarantee future results,
and all investments can lose money. So in fact, if
you ever hear anybody say this is absolutely guarantee you
cannot lose a dime, we always say, run and run
fast from that person and then call us at nine
(03:04):
on six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
Speaker 4 (03:08):
We had another positive year in twenty twenty five, so
three years in a row we had coming off of
twenty twenty two, which seems like some people.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
Already forgot about. But it was a rough year.
Speaker 4 (03:20):
It wasn't recession, but a lot of people and investment
analysts and economists were calling for recession in twenty two
and twenty three because we had a bear market. In
twenty twenty two, markets were down twenty to plus thirty percent,
bonds were down ten percent, and then twenty twenty three
came out with a bang, had a healthy double digit return,
(03:40):
twenty twenty four another double digit return, and last year
another double digit return, called.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
That super double digit return.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Well it was three years in a row.
Speaker 4 (03:50):
So you know, do we have another double digit return
or another healthy market in twenty twenty six, Well we'll
come to find out. We'll talk a little bit more
on what our thoughts are a little bit later, but
twenty five S and P five hundred finished at just
above sixteen percent, And we track that because we use
(04:12):
it not solely as just just the only benchmark, but
we look at it because it's.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
The body be sure of the stock market, right I get?
I mean, I guess you could use the wrestle two
thousand or something like or the ideal we'll trire or
five five thousand, we'll try.
Speaker 4 (04:26):
That's a that's a basket of everything in the that
SMP five hundred, because it has you know, five hundred
or just about five hundred stocks in US companies within it.
But it's just so it's been so out of balance
the past few years because because of seven it's seven
or ten names of that of the five hundred that
really and We've talked plenty about it that really carry
(04:47):
the big weight of the index. Nevertheless, when you're watching
financial news or news in general and they're talking about
the stock market and the stock market all time high,
they're either talking about the Dow Jones, which is the
oldest that's P five hundred, or NASDAC and a lot
of times when you look in at something like you
said earlier abroad, typically it's reference of the overall market
(05:08):
is S and P five hundred, so a little above
sixteen percent, which is a great year in the market,
not as good as it had been the previous two years,
which were in the twenty plus range in the previous
two years is what the S and P five hundred performed.
But we're very happy with our models that we've been tracking.
There's two in particular, one that's built around just growth
(05:31):
and been tracking it. Built a mid twenty twenty two,
been tracking it and then starting adding some clients that
it made sense for them.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
And their portfolios and the risk tolerance.
Speaker 4 (05:42):
Last year finished and it's only ten names, so basically
it pulls from the S and P five hundred it
only it only picks ten names from that you're only
invested in ten stocks at one time. It takes a
look at it every month to see if there needs
to be any changes, if we need to humor it's
we I mean base speaking French like we we we yes, well,
(06:05):
you know, saying it pulls it does this? I mean
it's our model hour yes, hour, So not it like
it's some standone you know, uh mind like yeah, But anyway,
it reminds me of a some cartoon that my kids
watched and there's like a bunch of seagulls.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
I'm trying to think of what it is. Anyways, there's
a bunch of seagulls that come in.
Speaker 4 (06:29):
There's like this object, and everybody wants to go after
this object, and then the seagulls all end all.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Mine Mine, Mine, Mine, Mine mine.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
This is the type of value you can get from
this show.
Speaker 4 (06:41):
When I think about the when I think about the movie,
I'll come back to it.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Anyways.
Speaker 4 (06:47):
Uh so our model that's growth oriented, trying to go
after just the gusto. Albeit it has volatility, but it
goes after the gusto finished a little about forty seven
percent last year, comparative to the S and P five hundred,
which finished at just above sixteen percent, So very proud
(07:07):
of that. Leaps and bounds above what the S and
P five hundred did.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
And here's here's go ahead. Finish your thought, because then
I have one go ahead, well more than one.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
I'm more curious to hear what you have to say.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
Well, you know, when you talk about those kinds of numbers,
even the sixteen percent and three years in a row
of double digits, this is the danger zone for people.
This is where people make just gigantic mistakes, get their comfortable,
they start wanting to get on the bandwagon, and they
want to buy you know, the investments that helped, you know,
(07:40):
drive such lofty, great you know, three year, multi year returns,
And it's not going to be the same companies that
this year. Yeah, some of them might do well. I
think I think there's some upside to Amazon and Microsoft
and Google so on and so forth, But I don't
know is Nvidia going to have the.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
Same sort of Is tech gonna lead lead lead the
market this year like it did the last few years.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
And it might be energy that is going to be
needed to drive tech as far as utilization, right, I mean,
tech is great, but but again you have to put
the application to use, and in order to put the
application to use, when you're talking about AI and data
centers and all that they need power and power was
(08:29):
kind of a forgotten sector last year.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Well, it's been talked about back half of last year.
It's been starting.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
Now you're starting to see some lift and clients are
starting to you know, notice that. Okay, yeah, hey, maybe
John did know what he was talking about when he said,
you know, energy, everything begins and ends with energy, and
every type of energy to power today, which is tomorrow
(08:56):
because yesterday's tomorrow is today, by the way. Confusing, but
but you can't do anything without energy. So where I
was going with that is, I think the mistakes that
that are made here when it comes to portfolio, uh,
construction and management and ongoing management of your investments is
(09:17):
to not do anything to just think that that wave
is going to be the same wave that it was
last year. No, I think there's definitely, you know, going
to be more of a shift as far as what
are the high flyers from from a stock you know,
multiple this year versus last year, and it was all
(09:38):
about the AI chips, right and semiconductors last year. This year,
I think it's going to be more about auto automation, robotics,
things of that nature versus you know, the things that
are underpinning UH are technology and the power that it
(09:59):
will take well to put all of this new technology.
Speaker 3 (10:03):
And the other thing is it doesn't always have.
Speaker 4 (10:05):
To revolve around AI. I mean, so far this year,
what's been doing very well is some energy names, healthcare, biotech.
I've been actually doing better than some of the tech
names out there so far this year. I mean we're
only you know, like ten days into it so far,
but we'll see if that continues. And it doesn't mean
that technologies. I'm just going to focus on that and
(10:27):
have my portfolio, you know, amongst several different names. But
then you're all in the technology sector. You're not diversified, right.
You could be in a bunch of different names and
maybe you have this company and that company and that company,
but all revolves around AI.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
You're not going to be.
Speaker 4 (10:42):
Totally diversified because if the AI thing turns around or
it gets disrupted, then all those all those stocks that
you have in companies you know can take it hit so.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
Well, or if the if the institutions that you know,
wield the money especially money in retirement plans and things
like that are primarily in funds and models, and all
of a sudden you start mathematically coming to the realization that, okay,
there was probably a trillion dollars of spend in the
(11:13):
development of spend investment of AI, but no revenue at
least not revenue proportion to the spend. And so when
you start going, okay, the fact that companies went up
double and in some cases triple digits because they decided
(11:34):
to spend and invest in AI. But then from a
profitability perspective, when you take on those expenses and you
don't get your there's no immediate return on investment, there's
no immediate revenue will shoot. You know your share price
is going to come under pressure when those numbers start
hitting this year, and by the way, it's a it's
(11:56):
an earnings month, and so you know, you need to
stay tuned because we're just getting into tidbits of what
could really be a good year or a bad year
for a lot of people if they make mistakes. So
stay tuned. You're listening to the wise money guys, John
Scambray and j Seppe vescani Here Certified Portfolio managers who
specialize in helping people who are retired are about to
(12:18):
retire manage their money. If you like the show and
want to have a conversation with us with no obligation,
give us a call at nine one six ninety six
seven thirty five hundred. Again that numbers nine one six
ninety six seven thirty five hundred. So yes, things were
a little bit topsy turvy and one sided in twenty
twenty five. But even with that, you know, the core model.
Speaker 4 (12:42):
On the downside, on the upside, because we had April
in May, and you know, market came down because of
the tariff, but a lot of the tech names had
some big hits too.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
Oh some were down fifty percent right in April, and
the market went down overall twenty percent.
Speaker 4 (12:57):
But yeah, there's some names that were forty fifty percent.
A lot more tech names had run up quite a bit.
But on the flip side, when things started coming back,
FEDS were talking about potentially starting to cut rates again and.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
Tariffs were starting to get delayed and relaxed.
Speaker 4 (13:13):
Then AIU Fouria came back and we saw some big names.
Case in point, one candidate within our not candidate, but
one position that's still a position within our S and
P top ten. The growth oriented portfolio triggered WDC Western
Digital and August beginning of August and since then just
(13:35):
from August until now, since then it's up to I
think it's last I check was around one hundred and
sixty percent.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
Yeah, it's been from August, but that's crazy. But then
there's even way bigger ones like the Pallanteer.
Speaker 4 (13:48):
Grow Pallenteer was from that's been in there longer I
want to say October of twenty five, actually maybe twenty four.
It might be then there for almost definitely more than
a year, and that's up over three hundred percent. That's
had some volatility, but I mean still we'll think about
a Palenteer. For example, when I first introduced you to
(14:10):
the radio show, we were talking about that in early
twenty twenty four when it was like a twelve to
twenty dollars.
Speaker 3 (14:17):
Stock and gold.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
So you mentioned that was gold, gold, gold, buy gold,
buy palunteer, by this, by that, the other. But that's
neither here nor there. At the point is that themes
are important and recognizing, you know, themes is a big
part of our job and the way that we come
up with these themes is through research, through reading, and
(14:43):
through process and through being students and full more than
full time students of this game. You can't expect the
same level of return every year from doing the same
idea cole thing. The market as a whole, the stock
market as a whole has averaged over the last fifty
(15:07):
years about an eight nine percent return. So if you're
now getting greedy.
Speaker 4 (15:13):
And because you're used to the market for the last years,
the last three years where double you know, good sized
double digit returns, it's going to bite you and we
don't want to see that happen.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
Come in, let us put eyes on what you have
and what what what you're doing, and make some suggestions
on what we think you should do to improve your portfolio.
Speaker 4 (15:36):
Well more importantly, put a plan together so you have
something you have a roadmap to then figure out what
your portfolio and your investment assets and how they should
be and the hard money that you've earned right over
your lifetime and how it should be allocated based on
your actual roadmap and your plan to ligne.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
Now.
Speaker 4 (15:55):
A lot of times you know and what you're getting
at I'm guessing is you know you just had a
great twenty three, twenty four and even last year, and
so you're just you're just throwing it and saying, I'm
gonna invest right, I'm investing in this fund or a
tech fund or this or that or whatever, and I'm
just going to continue to Well, do you need twenty
percent a year return?
Speaker 3 (16:15):
You know?
Speaker 4 (16:15):
And along with that, do you need the risk that
comes along with twenty per because it's not going to
be a double digit return every year. There's going to
be downes like we just you know, recently went through
in twenty twenty two that a lot of people forget
because we've had, you know, such good returns in the
past few years.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
So do you need that? Is that what you're needing.
Speaker 4 (16:33):
And asking for in order to obtain all of your
financial goals that are important to you and your family.
If not, then that's where we can go through do
an analysis and say, hey, you need to make some
changes here, either to your overa allocation, to the granular
steps of here's some positions, so on and so forth.
This is what it's going to mean. And if you
do these different adjustments, then this is how it's going
(16:55):
to align better with your plan. Reduce some risk, take
unnecessary risk off the table, not that you're not making
any returns, but you're making the returns that you need
to make based off of your plan and your trajectory
and your timeline without just throwing risk risk out there
just for the sake of Hey, I want to try
and do a hundred you know, double my money in
the next two years or three years.
Speaker 2 (17:16):
Which would be lovely but not reality.
Speaker 3 (17:18):
And people have done it.
Speaker 4 (17:19):
And we just gave you an example of one position
within our growth portfolio that you know, you've already more
than doubled your money, but that's not But again, even
though we are able to do that, we've tracked it
and the portfolio did forty seven percent last year.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
I'm not banking on it to do I'm not. I'm not.
Speaker 4 (17:39):
I don't have the goal or trajectory. You say, like, oh,
did forty seven last year. I'm I'm I'm I'm going
to bet that this thing's going to do forty seven
percent or better this year.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
And that doesn't mean the person's account grew by forty
seven percent last year, because again, it would still come
out not investing all in one, you know, or over
investing in one segment opportunity or asset class of the market,
and correlation is important. So again, when you do the
(18:07):
plans that you're speaking of, it might say that, hey,
you know, a realistic return for you to accomplish your needs,
not the wants and wishes, because that's the other thing
will help you identify. But what is it you need
from a return perspective that I call minimum return to objective?
And if that says six seven, eight percent, well that's
(18:28):
what your core portfolio should be. And then you might
have a portion that's in a more aggressive stock model
where it's individual stocks that are designed to, you know,
go for a more aggressive growth rate of return on
your money. But when it's only a piece and a
(18:50):
very calculated piece, then it's appropriate from a risk perspective
because it shouldn't throw off your plans and and your
goals to accomplish your needs first because of you, right,
if you have way too much money and something that's
too risky, if that blows up, it blows up your
whole entire potential retirement plan and your future during retirement,
(19:16):
and we won't let you do that. So a lot
of people, you know, they see the types of returns
on certain positions and they're, well, why didn't we put
all of our money in that, Well, because nobody has
a crystal ball, you know. So it's important. And that's
why I said at the beginning, this is a really
(19:36):
risky timeframe right here, because people's objectives start getting skewed,
they start getting skewed with what's right. Yeah, the execute
just done it for the past few years.
Speaker 4 (19:48):
I'm expecting it to continue on. You know, it's it
becomes in distress. It's like when you know me and you,
when we're like in our teenage or young twenties, we're indestructible. Yeah,
we could do anything, jump off anything, roll drive anything,
get into a motorcycle, you know, and you can recover.
And you know, now I'm in my forties, year in year,
in your fifties and totally different game.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
Now. Yeah, everything hurts now more so for.
Speaker 3 (20:13):
Me behindsight's twenty twenty.
Speaker 4 (20:15):
And so that's what we do, is we use not
only our combined experience O over fifty years personally, but
then also the experience that we have with all of
our clients, right because everybody has a different story, everybody
has a different background, and so we know, you know, well,
the culmination of everybody's experiences are personally with all the
clients that we have been able.
Speaker 3 (20:34):
To service over the years, we take that and.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
Are able to tell our clients, you know, when we're
drawing out a plan, answering some of the questions and
what ifs, especially is what might be around that corner
right ahead in time? What are some of the things
that you want to potentially prepare for of the what ifs?
Speaker 2 (20:54):
Right So here's here's some of the things in twenty
twenty six that we I mean, again, if you're not
looking out for these things for yourself, hopefully your advisor,
your advisory team, you know, whoever you're working with is
looking for these, you know, challenges that will make twenty
(21:14):
twenty six rocky. And once again it's it's all tied
to interest, inflation and employment is some of the biggest
headwinds potentially out there that could be tailwinds. It just
depends on how the how things shape up early here
in the in the first quarter. And then on top
of that, you still have you know, geopolitical issues Nowezuela, Venezuela, Cuba,
(21:42):
Russia's been you know, following Cuban oil tankers with subbs,
and so to another Cuban missile crisis type thing. In
the Latin America areas seems to expand instead of shrink. Yes,
and so tariffs are still a big thing. But here's
the other thing that's coming right around the corner. Let
(22:05):
me guess guess what it is. I want to hear
you say, because you're just so emphatic about another government
shut down, and that's going to cause volatility. I think
not only that, not only.
Speaker 4 (22:18):
That, but we have earnings, So we have all the
big max seven names, some of the big seven names
that are going to be reported. We have FOMC at
the end of the months, which is going to be
interest rate decision. And in May, fed pal is going
to be gone. So who's going to replace them? Maybe maybe, Yeah,
we'll see who's going to replace them? And how's that
(22:38):
going to impact the market.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
Well, hopefully, And this is one of my favorite topics,
as you know, is that we see some sort of
revamping of the structure of the FED. Right, I mean,
the the dual mandate, the dot plot, I mean that
is such an antiquated philosophical view of our economy.
Speaker 4 (22:58):
But the dual mandate doesn't really matter if there's sitting
and they're sitting there and they're forecasting, because if they
just go based off of the dual mandate, that's thrown
out the window. That's thrown out the window. Dual mandate's fine,
but it's used differently now. Back then Alan Greenspan days
and prior, it was if one of these things or
both of these things get.
Speaker 3 (23:17):
Out of whack, then we have to act, right.
Speaker 4 (23:19):
But when they were at a whack during we had
when we had inflation, it was, oh, we see that
inflation is above where we're comfortable. But we think in
the next six to twelve months, because of supply chain
and this and that and big bird and R two
D two, it's going to come back and then we'll right,
that's the problem.
Speaker 2 (23:38):
Well, the real the biggest problem of the FED is
that they think growth is the problem. Right, Since when
is a growing economy a problem, but a growing economy
could leave to lead to some inflationary pressure. If productivity
is it becomes an issue, right. And then and obviously
(23:58):
the supply side issues. If if you know, demand starts
out pacing supply, then once again you know it's those
things or if you don't manage your checkbook well the
next few years, then you're going to put pressure on
the dollar. The dollar is going to be worth less
and i e. Hyper inflation. So there's a lots of
(24:20):
those same themes that if you're mismanaging your money, or
if it's being mismanaged for you from a risk perspective,
you absolutely need to give us a call at nine
one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. John'scambray and
Jaseepi Vescani here certified portfolio managers who specialize in helping
(24:40):
people who are retired are about to retire manage their money.
If you like the show and have a want to
have a conversation with us with no obligation, give us
a call at nine one six nine six seven thirty
five hundred. Again that numbers nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred. So just to recap a little bit,
we have two portfolios that are are our main love
(25:00):
if you will, as far as on the stock side,
and then of course our our new love is structured notes,
which we run two models that are when people have
you know, a moderate or moderate aggressive or aggressive risk tolerance,
then we'll put you in a portion in the the
(25:22):
growth portfolio when you're more aggressive. If you're less aggressive,
then we'll put you in the moderate growth and income portfolio.
Speaker 4 (25:30):
But well, let me take let's take it a step
back just in case, you know, put in Layman's terms
in general.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
Uh, when we're when.
Speaker 2 (25:40):
We're working with we're layman or just people are laymen?
Where are where are Laman? Is what country is up from? Anyways?
Speaker 3 (25:47):
Layman?
Speaker 2 (25:48):
Oh yeah, that makes sense. It's from Laymany. Sorry I
don't it's the first one of the year.
Speaker 4 (25:57):
So in general, we're working with clients and we're figuring out,
we put together a plan and figure out, okay, what's
needed from the assets that you've grown or maybe you
already have some of them invested or not. How do
we allocate this? You can be anywhere from conservative to aggressive.
And then within that assets are going to be diversified
through different asset classes. So one of them is stocks.
(26:20):
That's the two models that we're talking about right that
is focused on stocks that we've talked about in the
beginning and kind of the performance and how it's done
against S and P five hundred. But then there's other
asset classes too, So it's not just that it's bonds,
it's alternatives, it's real estate holdings. And when you think
of real estate, you could have We have clients that
(26:41):
have hard real estate where they own them. It's very common,
but it could be that, Hey, I want to own
real estate, but I don't want to actually buy the
hard asset, manage it, find a.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
Tent, or I don't want to single property, or I
don't want to sing a property, but I want to
be able to hold a property.
Speaker 3 (26:55):
Yeah, I want to be invested in.
Speaker 4 (26:56):
So we have investments both public and private, that we
have access to that we put a little sliver within
their portfolio. And so now you have different asset classes
within your portfolio. Right, that kind of act act as
a balancing act. And it's not all in one type
of thing, not all eggs in one basket, because you
can't predict exactly what's going to be doing well at
(27:16):
the end of you know, this year, for example, or
the next year, stock's going to do well, or fixed
income or real estate.
Speaker 3 (27:22):
So on and so forth.
Speaker 4 (27:23):
So depending on if you're conservative, you know then you're
going to have most likely less exposure to stocks.
Speaker 3 (27:30):
And these couple of models that we've been talking about.
Speaker 4 (27:33):
Versus if you're more aggressive, you can have more exposure
to stocks because that's the more growth component to get
you that extra growth in the higher potential returns within
the portfolio. But one is purely growth oriented, more volatile
going after the gusta which is what we talked about before.
(27:54):
That performed just above forty seven percent right last year.
The other, which is more common in our clients because
more of our clients aren't aggressive and trying to just
grow their assets, right, They're either nearing retirement or in
retirement and trying to generate some cash flow. So how
do you do that with a stock portfolio and still
(28:15):
generate cash flow but have a you know, attractive return
or not giving up the overall average return just for
cash flow. And so we've built a model. And you know,
when I partnered with John the beginning of twenty twenty four,
that was kind of the project that I got excited about,
(28:35):
was build something that's custom that we can replicate and
put in client portfolios that makes sense that they can
to have exposure stocks but will generate a decent cash flow.
So the other one we call our core stock portfolio.
And this has thirty holdings. But the the caveat to
it is that a majority of them, you know, twenty
(28:58):
of the thirty names have to be some sort of
dividend paying stock.
Speaker 3 (29:03):
And the average that.
Speaker 4 (29:04):
It's been averaging over the past year is north of
three percent. Sometimes it's three point one, sometimes it's three
point three percent as far as.
Speaker 3 (29:13):
A dividend yield now dividend yield.
Speaker 4 (29:15):
And we're saying that that is the cash flow that
that stock or portfolio generates, that you know, spits out
that you can either reinvest in the stock and buy
more of the stock, or some of our clients take
those dividends out and they use that as basically their
income right to pay for things, pay for expenses.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
What have you.
Speaker 4 (29:35):
Wasn't built to try and beat S and P. Five hundred,
but so far it's done a good job. And last year,
the overall return of that portfolio has performed at just
over twenty and a half percent last year while averaging.
Speaker 3 (29:50):
North of a three percent dividend yield on the portfolio.
So proud of that as well.
Speaker 4 (29:56):
Again, past performance is not indicative of future results, but
we continue to monitor that and make any necessary adjustments.
Definitely reviewed on a monthly basis to see if there
is any tweaks that we need to make of it
and haven't built to just beat the S and P
five hundred for growth because it's income first, growth second,
(30:17):
but been pretty proud of where it's going and we're
going to continue.
Speaker 2 (30:20):
To work and we do this. We're fiduciaries. So since
it's the first part of the year and we're talking
a little bit about, you know what we do, so
obviously how we do it is important. So we are
discretionary money managers. We're fiduciaries, means we don't work on
a commission. We are fee only, so that's important. At
(30:43):
least we strongly believe that whoever is manager money and
and help you create and maintain and hopefully achieve your
plan is that they're doing it on a non commission basis.
We think that's super important. So just to let you
know that's what we are is a fiduciary firm and
(31:06):
a fee based firm like Fisher Investments. Fisher Investments, I
love it, he he he says it like there's something
you know unique about what they do. By the way,
we do good. When you do good, all that means
is they're a fee based fiduciary firm as well, So.
Speaker 3 (31:24):
It's true, it's true with us as well.
Speaker 4 (31:26):
But the other but the other thing that I think
is important to note is that we're agnostic. So we
we because number one, we're not focusing on selling products
and solutions that pick an upfront commission to us. We're
agnostic of what's inside of your portfolio. We don't care, right,
We're not. We're not tied to any specific investment firm
(31:49):
and mutual fund company or anything like that.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
We don't get any kickbacks or anything like that.
Speaker 4 (31:54):
We use Schwab as a custodian, We have interactive brokers,
we have Fidelity as custodians, So it doesn't really matter
to us.
Speaker 3 (32:02):
What matters is what is needed per your.
Speaker 4 (32:05):
Plan after we design it, and then what makes sense
of the portfolio and how can we basically give best
bang for the bucks or you're getting the returns that
you need to over time without taking any unnecessary risk.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
Speaking of unnecessary risk, I really love these structured notes
that we've been working with a partner to have created
that we've put a lot of clients' assets in, and
the reason being so when they're kind of on the
fence or in the middle of the road from a
risk perspective. Okay, they're not aggressive, they're not conservative, but
(32:42):
they want more of a stock like return without having
one hundred percent stock like risk. Well, that's where a
structured investment comes in. And again we don't put you
all of people's money into any one thing or into
anyone category, as we mentioned before, but these structured notes
(33:03):
are really kind of a fixed income not kind of,
but are a fixed income investment that has a stock
like return. And so the one that we're going to
put some of our client's money in this next week
is a three year investment and it has a coupon
which is paid by the issuer. In this case the
(33:24):
issuer is City Group, and the coupon was nine point
was it annually? Yeah, nine point seven percent annually, paid
out one twelfth a month as long as the indices
that it tracks and it tracks three main ones aren't
down any given month from your starting point thirty percent
(33:49):
or more. Now, think about that. If I'm just in
a regular stock fund or individual stock and I'm looking
for a eight or nine percent return on average that
the stock market has has has done over any given decade,
(34:09):
over a long term, I can get this with a
thirty percent kind of cushion barrier, which is a cushion.
That just means that as long as the S and
P five hundred or the NASDAC again, each one tracks
different indices, so it's just we're talking at a high
(34:30):
level right now. Then you know, I've got a pretty
good comfort level and a pretty good probability not guaranteed. Again,
remember I said in the beginning, if somebody says this
is guaranteed, run away, and I hate to say this,
but you could think of an index annuity if you will.
They use the same sort of strategy to you know,
(34:51):
get you a high return with reducing your exposure on
the downside. And so nine point seven you know, annually
for three years. That is that is fixed and written
on the note, and as long as the indices, as
I said that it tracks, stay above its minus, stay
(35:14):
above minus thirty percent, you get paid that nine point
seven percent each of the three years. Now, the only
other downside to it is it could go below minus
thirty percent, but you'd be going below minus thirty percent
your stock fund or stock potentially anyway, and you don't really.
Speaker 3 (35:35):
You don't get paid out that month, but it just
goes on to the next month, and if it's.
Speaker 2 (35:38):
Might get paid that.
Speaker 3 (35:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (35:39):
If the market recovers, but it's down twenty seven percent,
it's not down thirty more, you get paid up.
Speaker 2 (35:44):
Yeah, that's the beauty. But the real thing that we
keep experiencing is that they get called early. So as
rates continue to go down or be volatile, a lot
of the issuers in this case, the one that we're
doing next week, City Group, they can refinance, they can
pay back investors early, and then all of a sudden,
(36:05):
you were so excited about the nine point seven percent
and then we got to find uh something else for you.
That's that's as good. So that's the other downside of
it is that it could be called early, which is
the downside of fixed income investments in general, bonds in general.
Speaker 4 (36:21):
Yeah, the ultimate risk would be something financially happens with
City and then you know they're not paying the nine
point seven or your principle.
Speaker 2 (36:28):
Back boy, And if a bank the size of City
Group defaults, Well, we already saw that two thousand bonds,
and I.
Speaker 4 (36:35):
Mean and look, we saw that in two thousand and
eight right, and look, didn't want to let anything default
that happens.
Speaker 2 (36:42):
So but that's that is that is the ultimate risk.
But but let's face it that we're talking about today
that you know, people are going to want, you know,
high returns because that's what they've been used to now
the last three.
Speaker 4 (36:57):
Other ways to achieve a a good, healthy return.
Speaker 3 (37:01):
But how do I do it without taking unnecessary risk?
Speaker 4 (37:04):
And these are just some of the things that we
look at outside of just the plain vanilla stocks and bombs.
Speaker 2 (37:09):
It's just one additional arrow in our quiver of arrows
to help people, you know, achieve whatever their goals and
objectives are for their money each year. So our number
is nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. Again,
that numbers nine one six, nine six seven thirty five hundred.
(37:30):
We got more to talk about. If you like the
show and want to have a conversation with us with
no obligation, give us a call at nine one six
nine six seven thirty five hundred. Again, that numbers nine
one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. And this
is the uh the time where you know, we can
talk about some of the themes again.
Speaker 3 (37:50):
That you're gonna saying like the final kid.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
I didn't know what we were going to talk about. That's
the thing about doing a live show.
Speaker 4 (38:00):
Yeah, but so final countdown.
Speaker 2 (38:03):
But let's let's let's let's relook at the things in
twenty twenty six. Now we mentioned them briefly, but they're important,
so they're worth mentioning again because it really is, as
we were discussing during the break, Uh, we're seeing mark
and we're seeing a rotation, right, and we're we're seeing
market movers be different, as already mentioned than what the
(38:25):
market movers were in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 4 (38:28):
So you know, again, so there's been a little bit,
you know, a little so far at the beginning this
year has been a shift out of tech stocks and
into other sectors. DAL is out performing NASZAC, which is,
you know, completely different from last year. It was all
about the NASDAC and the tech stocks within the Nasdaq,
and this is broadening, broadening out beyond AI themes, healthcare, energy, biotech.
(38:55):
I've all been seeing pretty positive you know, returns and spikes.
Small cap we haven't mentioned that yet, but small cap stocks,
which all that means is just smaller sized companies, and
I've been seeing some of the biotech pharmaceuticals that have
been getting some good momentum this year. But small cap
(39:18):
stocks can have been doing fairly well. They did some
They did well back half of last year, and primarily
that was driven from the Feder rate, the Federal Reserve
cutting rates again. Now if that theme continues this year,
where there's more cutting, whether it be from Jerome Pale
or the new FED chairman that's going to be coming in,
whoever that might be, and maybe they favor and is
(39:42):
more onside with the Trump and they decided to cut
another one percent of interest overnight interest rates this year.
That could be favorable to small cap stocks. So that's
a sector to look for as well. And emerging markets
actually have been surging outside of China, not only just
general but more on the AI theme and revolving around that,
(40:06):
and then emerging markets they did actually fairly well last year.
International did, but emerging markets have been kind of coming
out of the world work. So there could be different areas,
like we said before, outside of the typical names you
hear about all the time in video, Tesla, so on
and so forth. Although we are excited about Tesla and SpaceX,
which SpaceX just announced and they are going to be
(40:29):
going IPO here trying to and there's some offerings. Actually
we're trying to get some clients, a couple of clients
into SpaceX specifically.
Speaker 3 (40:39):
But those are things that we look at as well
as you know, private.
Speaker 4 (40:42):
Equity, alternatives, real estate, all these different asset classes or
or different investments within asset classes you typically don't have
access to, you can't get access to as a real
retail trader, and further diversify your portfolio outside of just
a vanilla stocks and bonds realm that most people have
(41:04):
when they're just trading and they have a portfolio of
mutual funds or etops.
Speaker 2 (41:07):
Yeah, I think it's worth mentioning. We had a client,
she had family partners on a property. Property sold. There
was no debt on the property for you know, six
million dollars ish. You know, each of the family members
I believe there was four, got about a million and
a half dollars. Gosh. It was an inherited property, so
(41:31):
there was almost no cost base to the property and
low cottages depreciated, so you know, cap gains were going
to potentially be huge, and we helped that client put
it into a private real estate investment trust a very
(41:51):
good one where it was ten thirty one. We helped
them set up the intermediary that's one of the nation's best,
at least one of the nation's largest, where the money
transferred from title to the intermediary and then from the
intermediary to the new real estate investment for the client
(42:13):
and the client.
Speaker 4 (42:14):
This is an investment where it's another hard asset that
they need to manage.
Speaker 3 (42:17):
It's a portfolio that's professional managed particular institutional basis.
Speaker 2 (42:22):
This particular real estate investment trust has around three hundred
properties in it and you know, very high occupancy in
the in the ninety percent occupancy rate, which is very good.
But the other part that's just fantastic when you look
(42:42):
at the the potential cash flow it was it was
higher for this client on her cut than what she
was receiving on the bigger property with the rest of
the family members when they divvied it all up. And
here's the real wonderful thing about these because the overall
(43:05):
portfolio passes on its overhead and expense and depreciation and
costs to each of the owners and shareholders of the investment.
The six point one two percent annualized rate of return
or distribution rate is mostly not taxable. You heard that right,
(43:30):
So mostly not taxable six point one two percent. Now,
that might fluctuate a little bit as far as what
the annualized cash flow is. But we can help you
literally with liquidating a property. It has to be an
investment property. It can't be a primary residence and where
(43:53):
you it's highly appreciated over you know, whatever the timeframe is,
and you don't want to pay cap gains. There are
wonderful investments out there. We set up pretty one. We
do all the heavy lifting for you. It gets networked
into your you know, your trust, your joint account, your
(44:13):
individual account, whatever the case may be. Can't be in IRA.
And the income off of it is almost all of
it not taxed. Over ninety percent of the income paid
out to the owners of the shares and the properties
aren't getting taxed on that cash flow.
Speaker 3 (44:35):
Yeah, that's all they've been able to manage it.
Speaker 4 (44:37):
And that's not a guarantee, but they've been doing such
a good job of passing along, you know, the expenses
and the depreciation and ten thirty one their own properties
into other properties with the portfolios and passing those tax
savings on to their owners and investors.
Speaker 2 (44:53):
So if you like more information on anything that we
talked about, or more importantly, want to meet for a
no obligation consultation, and I recommend doing it early this year.
I think we can help you set up a pretty
good year. We don't know. We think it's going to
be challenging, but overall we both think the year should
be a good one. So let us help you take
(45:13):
advantage of the themes that are out there and let
us help you not make mistakes in twenty twenty six.
Give us a call at nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred. Hope you enjoyed listening to the
wise money guys, John scambray a Giuseppe Vescani. Have a
happy Saturday and come back and listen to us next weekend.
Speaker 3 (45:31):
Bye, I have a great weekend.
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