March 19, 2026 • 44 mins
Politcs are affecting the markets. What does that mean for your retirement and investment portfolio? Hosts John and Giuseppe walk us through the Iran factor. Plus, a study of California's $20 minimum fast food wage, and the 'innovation revolution'. Don't forget to sign up for our April 29th workshop and seminar in the East Bay. The Wise Money Guys.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
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visit our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show.
I'm your co host, John Scambray and I'm here with
my partner extraordinaire just Up Visconti, and we are certified
portfolio managers and we love helping people who are retired
or about to retire manage their money. If you like
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(00:34):
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(01:18):
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(03:09):
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(03:33):
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(03:56):
in a while called nine to one six nine six,
seven thirty five five hundred, So let's dive in. We've got,
of course a lot of economic things going on a
lot of geopolitical things happening around the world that are
affecting our markets. As you all know the Federal Reserve
meeting that just happened this week. Ye Jerome Palell my
(04:17):
favorite not really person who is way out of his
roles and responsibilities in my opinion.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
We'll dive into that, get into the die tribe and
get you all work out there. We go get my
as long as you take you blood pressure medicine today.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
Oh by the way, this show is brought to you
by One Source Wealth Management. We are a redored investment
advisory firm A. Our license number is three one nine
zero seven eight and again for more information and disclosures,
you can visit our website, go.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
On so FMC meeting and we'll dive into that throughout
the segments. What's going on in the latest with the
Middle East conflicts, how's that impacting the market and the economy.
And then a fun fun thing, I don't know if
it's fun, but listening on the radio and New York's
new governor, Mom Donnie proposing a thirty dollars minimum wage.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
So I thought he calls them cammy mom Donniemi Mom Donnie.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
But he's proposing a thirty dollars minimum wage for New York.
So I thought it'd be fun to look at some
of the data and how and use California as an example,
since a couple of years ago we had put out
not we, but you know, the powers that be within
California put out a twenty dollars minimum wage for the
fast food chain. So I pulled up some data and
(05:45):
how that's impacted the small business environment industry within California
specifically in the past couple of years.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
That will be able to dive into just real quick
along those lines. I was watching Fox Business the other morning,
the Stuart Varney Show, and on the Stuart Vanni Show,
they were talking about the governor and uh and it
was the Governor Hogel of New York and it was
related to Commune Mom Donnie and his wanting to increase
(06:15):
minimum wage to thirty dollars. And what they were talking
about that the regular guests on and the co hosts
of the Stuart Varney Show, was that since COVID, New
York has lost one point seven million people in population movement,
moving from New York to Florida, to Tennessee to Texas.
(06:40):
You know, to the Carolinas, to what we've seen in
California two one. I had no idea it was that
that number, I mean one point seven million. The whole
state is like fifteen million, you know or whatever it
is with you know, well.
Speaker 3 (06:55):
Twelve of it in New York and could could continue
to get worse if some of these you know proposed.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
That's what made me think of it, that thirty use.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Well not only that, but then just like wealth tax
and all these other additional taxes on the wealthy and
what have you. I mean, we're we're battling it here
in this state with the five percent wealth tax for.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
Is it billionaires? Right?
Speaker 3 (07:17):
For billionaires? Sergey I forgot his last name, but the
Google the Google exec's Brandon and Brannon, but he put yeah,
Brandon right, he put twenty or twenty five million additionally
preference to try and block that, he just put in
another I read another forty to forty five million of
(07:37):
his own money to campaign against.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
The Well, hopefully they block any effort. And again this
isn't this isn't read anywhere or but I've I've seen
and heard squealings of wanting to try to repeal prop
thirteen again in California, which like New York, would be
just devastating. You know, if you property tag mass with
(08:02):
people's property taxes, especially ones that.
Speaker 3 (08:05):
Yeah, why don't you break down Prop thirteen? Some of
those that aren't, they were familiar with it.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
One hundred pers literally just cause a collapse to the
value of real estate and wealth in California.
Speaker 3 (08:18):
Well, it's based off of your purchase price. You buy home,
and then your your property taxes are based off of
that purchase price, and then it gets assessed every year.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
Think of parents, grandparents, great grandparents, where you know they've
owned the same and lived in the same house or
owned the same rental or retitt right for thirty forty
fifty sixty years, paid pennies on the dollar based on
what the value is today, and then all of a sudden,
(08:47):
you go, oh, you're all getting reassessed to current value.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Based off of value when they bought it and inflated
like two percent or so per year, and then revert
and then taking that away and reverting to current market
values which have skyrocketed. It would just stretch, especially after
the five well Canada I had. There was an article
I read last year Canada does that. I think it's
in Toronto, and people were complaining about it, especially the
(09:15):
all of the retired community because they're living on fixed income, right,
they're not earning more additional income or bonuses or anything
like that. Get the property taxes and values of skyrocketed over,
you know, the last decade, and they're not even able
to afford to stand in their own health.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Well, what's so funny is think of all these people
that do have, you know, the means to leave the country,
especially there's so it's funny how many actors are country
what's that leave the country, leave the US and they
threaten I'm going back to Canada for the healthcare system
or the and you know, because you know, whatever whatever
(09:58):
they think Trump is doing or not doing this that
or the other. And believe there's like two that I
can think of, but yeah, we should do studying Ellen
and and her her girlfriend and then actually left. Well,
the other one that the heavier set comedian lady Rosie o'donnald.
(10:21):
She went to Ireland is O'Donnell and she left because.
Speaker 3 (10:26):
Hopefully she's drinking some good scotch there.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
I don't know what she's drinking, but she is, she's
a little on the crazy side.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
Well, when we come back, we'll dive into Middle East,
what's what's the updates and what's going on there, how
it's impacting the market and the economy, and then dive
in more into the Federal Reserve.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
And how I believe it's creating opportunity.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
Last last half full, last half.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
Full, because we focus on what your plan says, you
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you the level of returns that will be success for
(11:18):
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Diablo Hills Golf Course from six to seven thirty pm
(11:38):
on April twenty ninth, which is a Wednesday, last Wednesday
of the month. Again, give us a call at nine
one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. You're listening
to John Scambra here with my partner Joseppe Vescani, and
how do you talk about the economy, you know, geopolitics,
the world investments, anything without talking about out and gosh,
(12:01):
it's kind of getting, you know, nauseating. But it's a
lot like the FED to me in every meeting, which
is nauseating because no man should have that much power
over world markets by him just speaking what they discussed
in their FMC meeting, which they were never doing before.
Jerome Powell, by the way, they should stick to their script,
(12:24):
in my humble opinion, and stay out of politics, stay out.
Speaker 3 (12:29):
Of stay away from the cameras as much, stay.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
Away, way too much time in front of the camera
and just trying to feel your egos because that's all
that is. Their job isn't to be in front of
a camera. So that's neither here nor there. But but again,
a lot of the conversation around Iran is starting to
(12:52):
feel like that. Thank god we haven't had, you know,
a lot of deaths, because that would really just make
this even more horrible. But you know, so really and hopefully.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
Hopefully we don't, because it doesn't look like it's short
of a term conflict as we had hoped from the beginning.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
And think about that for a second. Really, are we
that spoiled that we think that what three weeks and
everybody's going, oh my god, this is it's going to
be a forever war forever. We hope. We hope it's
not right. That's the thing is. We hope it's not
going to be. I know it's not going to be.
(13:33):
I mean, there's there's listen, we're getting a lot of
fake news. This is this is our opinion. But I
watch the news every morning, every afternoon. I read constantly
everything I can get my hands on on things that
I think are going to affect our clients and our lives,
(13:55):
especially financially. And there's so much information and tell coming
out and actual people who you know are Iranian and
have fled Iran or are still going back in various ways,
you know, to try to really help this cause and
now are trying to get to regime change. I think
(14:18):
that would be the best thing for the world, you know, financially,
you know, humanitarian. So how long does that take? Question?
So again, but again based on based on people that
I would tend to error that they are credible. Time
(14:39):
is running out, that the resources are running out we're
now going and this was again I'm this is this
is not in writing. This is listening to the various
news shows on TV, you know, and specific ones, because
you'll get just the opposite from you know, counter political
(14:59):
show meaning right of CNN, and you're part of that party,
you're gonna get something very different than if you're listening
to Fox and and and that party. But on the
side that I listened to, you know, we're now we're
now dropping five thousand pound bombs on the installations, the
(15:19):
military installations, and mining capabilities and drone launching capabilities on
the on the the coastline of the straight to horror moves,
and things are drastically different. The retaliation you know from
Iran is it's in single digit numbers as far as percent,
(15:45):
you know, of decrease from just twenty some odd days
ago when this began. The amount of of countermeasures gone,
the amount of you know, missiles going into uh uh
Israel a fraction of what it was, and on and
on and on. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (16:05):
Well now no recently, uh this week uh Qatar reported
irony missile strikes to their LGN or LNG facility rass
laughin and that we saw and that's This is interesting though,
is because we've been which is good for we've been.
We've been, we've been tied, strongly tied with Israel.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
The net exporter of LNG right.
Speaker 3 (16:29):
Right, but Israel attacked Iran's largest gas processing facility without
a South pars Field. Trump put out.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
If you do this again, we're going to take yours
out right.
Speaker 3 (16:40):
No, Trump put out that, which was interesting. He's and
he put out there that Israel did that did it
out of most likely anger. It was not the US.
Israel is not going to be attacking that. Iran put
missile strikes towards Katar. So then now the the rhetoric
(17:01):
there coming from Trump was essentially leave Qatar a loan.
It wasn't US. We're not going to be doing this anymore.
Israel is not going to be doing this anymore.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
So it was interesting. No, but he also had an
if and a butt right in there if you do.
But it was interesting to see loan we won't. There's
that island, right, what's the island called for Iran? Where
it's in Kong Island. No, it's their main campo of
where they they load the the oil tankers and all
(17:32):
of that. There's his threat was, we will not do
this oil, but if you continue to do these things,
we will because it will not impact it will impact
world prices, but it will not prevent you know, uh,
GDP in the US. In fact, it will increase GDP
(17:54):
in the US because we'll have to step up our
production even more to become a net exporter of oil,
not just natural gas and liquefied natural.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
But the markets are looking at this as a global
they're not looking at this as just US.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
And what can you or not I did on Russia.
Speaker 3 (18:13):
Yeah, well we'll see, we'll see, you know, we'll see.
But I mean, so far this is you know, you
saw crude after the fm C meeting and some of
these attacks and Qatar and so on and so forth
go above one hundred dollars again. So because because these
which is not it's not healthy. It's not healthy for
the market.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
Saying a word, now, all of a sudden, there commodities.
It's not FMC by itself, I know, that's what I'm saying.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
It's the it's the strikes that have happened between Iran
Israel and now you know, no.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
Guitar there but from a hole in the walls as
you know, I mean the f O m C. I'm
not saying. But know what I'm saying is to even
if anything Powell actually kind of downplayed, right, but to
even go on the camera and say anything positive or negative.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
They downplayed it, which would be a positive. It wasn't
in his It wasn't so much in his speech. It
was the questioning afterwards, and they were continuing to question
on Iran and inflation and the war and oil and.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
So and so.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
He has so he has to he has to answer it,
I mean, just in defense to him. He has to
answer it.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
But he downplayed.
Speaker 3 (19:22):
He just says, basically, there's uncertainty and we don't know
how it's going to play out. Point BLA.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
So not a fan of anything that comes out of
that person's mouth.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
I don't think it's specifically the person. I think it's
just the production. It's like what you said before, there
shouldn't be so much media attention, production, so many speeches,
interviews with Powell, interviews with FED presidents, social media, uh,
them going on social media. It should just be like
it had been two decades ago, where it was just
(19:56):
the FEDS reacted based off of unemployment and inflation.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
They use your tools necessary.
Speaker 3 (20:03):
They came out and when you heard something is when
they came out and they had their FMC speech letting
people know what they did and what they decided and why.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
And that was it. Yeah, it's pretty simple. Stay out
of free markets. That's it, end of story. How do
you feel about that? Right? I mean, that's what all
the media sensationalism is is getting involved in manipulation of
free markets. And that's what the FED has been doing,
which is not part of their responsibility.
Speaker 3 (20:32):
Part of the problem is that what's different also now
from back then as well as that the market moves
second by second because of the speed of information.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
It doesn't move at the fmcs when they're when they're
when they're speaking.
Speaker 3 (20:49):
Yeah. Right, So there's instant reactions not only by investors,
but more so algorithmic computer trading and hedge funds and
things like that that move things. I mean, as soon
as the speech comes out, everything is being digested, and
now with AI everything's being interpretated and trades and activities happening,
(21:10):
and you'll see the market just whereas before when when
there wasn't all of this right in computer training and
algorithms and so on and so forth.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
You didn't see it move.
Speaker 3 (21:19):
Around as much, right, there was there was a delay,
so you had time to digest the information versus making
like knee jerk or instantaneous reactions.
Speaker 2 (21:28):
So here's my two cents about it, which I've probably
given more like ninety nine cents. Two cents. But the
reality is these are things that you have to be
paying attention to, right and you hope that your investment
advisory firm, if it's not us, or you're doing yourself,
that you're paying attention to how these things affect your
(21:51):
investments and your financial life. That's what it all boils
down to. The reason why we even get into these,
you know, debates or conversations about these things, is because
you know it. It makes us we don't want to react,
you know, but we will use us.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
Think of us as the filter, right, We're we're the
filter of all this mass amounts of information through all
sources of media and what's being said. To to take
all this information, digest it, use our knowledge, use our background,
use our credentials, use our years of experience to then
say is this something to.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
Take action on?
Speaker 3 (22:32):
Or is this is this over over exaggeration, overreaction of
what we're seeing in the markets right now do we
have do we hold steadfast or should there be a
move or a pivot or rebounce.
Speaker 2 (22:43):
And that's where I think tremendous, So tremendous mistakes can
be avoided and not you know, getting emotional or painicking
about you know, what's going on, and just making sure
that you know you're not overly exposed to any one
of some level of risk in any one specific area,
(23:07):
and then you won't have to, you know, uh, get
fearful and panic and make potentially bad decisions. So give
us a call at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred to learn more about how we help
people and to set up a no obligation consultation. Let
us show you why we think we're different and and
(23:28):
and better quite frankly, uh then then most and we'll
then leave it up to you to decide. So we
started the show talking about New York. I got on
a little bit of a die tribe about hogel and
and the mass exodus of people, you know, voting with
their feet. But this this thing, you know, uh, it
(23:52):
just amazes me, the minimum wage thing that they're not
going to take California as an example. In fact, think
that what can you glean from California doing the same
thing raising minimum wage to what is it twenty or
twenty five?
Speaker 3 (24:09):
Twenty yeah, April of twenty twenty four, twenty dollars we raised, well,
California raised fast food chains which included like included national
chains with sixty plus locations to bump up them in
ways to twenty dollars. So I pulled the data.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
For California's economy.
Speaker 3 (24:32):
And right, yeah, So I pulled a bunch of data
of what's taking place so far, negative and positive, try
to do both sides. What's funny is the only studies
that came out that showed positive. Right, There's multiple like Harvard,
you see Santa Cruz, who else? Or franchise owners themselves,
(25:01):
the National Board of Economics resources, There's multiple sources of
the negative impacts of what this minimum wage in the
fast food chain took place within California. The ones that
come out with positive studies was primarily one university, California
University that came out with positive.
Speaker 2 (25:22):
Studies on all this don't tell right in La probably right? No, Berkeley, Okay,
northern California. Yeah, for sure, Berkeley, you know, United Communist
College of Berkeley, So.
Speaker 3 (25:37):
Which is you know they have I mean Einstein came
out of Berkeley, right, he studied in Berkeley science and physics, right.
Speaker 2 (25:43):
For a little bit, Yeah, I think so. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (25:47):
So the positive aspect obviously in the initial was that
pay rose eight to eighteen percent for you know, for
existing employees within those that were impacted with the fast
food change, so boosting retention, cutting turnover. There was a
lot of applications that came in initially, right because everybody
(26:10):
want to go and work for fast food because you're
getting paid twenty dollars an hour. The negatives eighteen thousand
jobs lost. There was a study that you see Santa
Cruz put out there reports of reduced hours twelve percent
drop and sampled McDonald's as far as full time versus
(26:31):
part time. There was dozens of full time jobs lost,
hiring freezes. EPI analysis site fifteen to twenty thousand in
job losses.
Speaker 2 (26:41):
You know, backing up a little bit to McDonald's, I
wonder if that was the reason. Why is when California kids,
you you see recently, well over the last several years,
that in McDonald's as an example, all of a sudden,
now they don't even take orders right right. Used to
have three four people at the counter that would say,
welcome to McDonald's. Can I take your order? And now
(27:03):
it's it's four kiosks that you see and one person
might come up and put your food around the counter,
or if you just can't figure out how to do
the kiosk because but it's a skeleton crew up at
the front. It's nobody.
Speaker 3 (27:19):
So there's there's more of that.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
So probably minimum wage and technology is guess what getting
rid of you know, Josh, human, rid of human.
Speaker 3 (27:30):
There's so there's been reports of more of that going
on with franchise owners, you know, replacing the the entry
level right order takers and putting the digitized screens and
automated orders in. There's been business closers Rubios.
Speaker 2 (27:48):
Which I haven't been to Rubio's a long time. I
forgot about. That's my great stuff. All of my kids,
all three during high school, all worked for Rubios because
it was in the bel Air shopping center in Fulsome
and we live literally in the neighbor.
Speaker 3 (28:01):
Yeah, there's some goods, had some good food right there.
Speaker 2 (28:03):
They did, and all through. I think Jessica may have
worked there the longest. And yeah, all of them. They
get so mad at me when when Stace and I
their mom and I would go in in order when
they were working, Hi, honey, and that's that's my daughter
right there, and then they would just give us the
dirty It looks.
Speaker 3 (28:24):
So Rubius shut down forty eight locations in twenty twenty
four amid rising crisis. You see Santa Cruz wh In
their study they say, you know, the pressure was really
on profits, leading to selective closures and paused expansions. UC
Berkeley came out saying that faster faster food establishments growth
(28:47):
in California versus US. I don't know the validity of that,
but that's that's their that's their positives.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
I can't believe anything.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
Later, costs went up about twenty five percent for covered operators,
prompting eight to twelve percent menu price increases. Right, So
that's inflationary and that's what we've seen, right. You see
those like value meals and stuff, all of them are
gone out.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
I mean think about it. You go to thirty dollars
minimum wage, I mean that impacts what labor jobs are
left that were right. Skilled labor is already above minimum wage.
So there's no plumbers or electricians or welders or framers
or you know, programmers or whatever it is that are
below thirty dollars an hour. But jobs non California, right
(29:31):
is the is the McDonald's worker.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
Well, and it's spilled, so there's spillover the bar back well,
they're spillover too. So the so even though the twenty
dollars minimum wage mail person took place within just the
you know, fast food chains, there's spillover in non covered
small businesses. And we've talked to our own clients that
have small businesses that they've had challenges and they've had
(29:54):
to raise their wages, even though it has nothing to
do with the fast food because their employees are paid
sixteen bucks an Now.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Go to in and out Burger and get thirty dollars
an hour, and well, and thirty dollars an hour. By
the way, what is that, well, I think in and
out already it's twelve hundred dollars in and out, I
think already paid a little bit time. Then it's staying
near sixty thousand dollars a year to flip burgers, or
to be a you know, a a attendant that walks
(30:21):
around a retail clothing store, or I mean it's just
it's ridiculous, or somebody to answer the phone, which you know,
we found in expectations when we were looking. I don't
know if you were involved, but when I was looking
for a receptionist, people would come in and go and
want seventy five thousand or one hundred thousand dollars a
(30:43):
receptionist to be a receptionist.
Speaker 3 (30:45):
Yeah, well that's what you get sometimes with some of
the you know, not all, but some of the younger generation.
They have these expectations.
Speaker 2 (30:53):
I do I deserve college in California. I deserve, I deserve. Hey,
I went to college in California. I know, and I
I did too. And I think a lot, So you're worthless, well,
I think now, unfortunately, no, I think a lot of
the degrees and when you, you know, compare it to the
cost of what those degrees are, the costs, it is worthless.
Speaker 3 (31:14):
It is at the cost has gone up, well, the
cost has gone up so much you gotta you gotta
well the benefit versus a cost.
Speaker 2 (31:23):
I just was talking about, and I know I'm getting
you off topic, but but it's relevant. It's relevant investments
and and and how this is going to affect people
who are on fixed incomes, which is the majority of
our client base. Is his daughter, my cousin's daughter. Uh,
she's senior. She got accepted to several different schools. One
(31:45):
of the nice ones is a private school, loyal of Marrimont.
And do you know what they raised their tuitions? It
used to be like the University of San Diego, the
private school that was probably one of the most expensive
princeton you know, another are super expensive. One private ninety
(32:05):
thousand dollars a year. Now I don't know if that's
special room and board and everything. Yeah, your room, board,
books tuition ninety grand a year. Crazy is the estimate
that he received from.
Speaker 3 (32:19):
The better be studying some like the fabsa AI or financial.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
Engineering AI or something. Again, there's nothing, and you know,
unless you want to be something, you want to come
out hopefully with, you know, going after a becoming an
attorney or a surgeon. Attorneys who knows, I wouldn't do
programming or tech because all of that that's all going
(32:44):
to be replaced, right.
Speaker 3 (32:46):
Even even some of the attorney you're seeing online stuff,
especially like a state attorney. Right, Yeah, some of that
stuff is being all digitized.
Speaker 2 (32:53):
So what all boils down to is that you got
to really make sure that your investments are going to
help you, you know, grow your overall capabilities to keep
up with you know, the price of things. And more importantly, Shoot,
(33:13):
if we crash things economically, because think about that, and
get rid of employment, even at the technical level and
the skilled level, then there's no more demand. Yeah. And
if there's no more demand, well, then there's no more
profits for these publicly treated companies.
Speaker 3 (33:31):
So you're saying, if you walk into McDonald's and you
order a big mac meal and you ordered it through
the digitized screen and then the robots in the back
made that meal for you, Yeah, McDonald's isn't making any profit.
Speaker 2 (33:47):
No, No, that that's where you missed a part.
Speaker 3 (33:51):
The twenty dollars an hour employee doesn't have money to
pay for that.
Speaker 2 (33:54):
It's simpler meal because you're unemployed. You're not you're making
no income. So I mean you don't walk into McDonald's.
That's the part you missed. There's nobody. So if we
put the mcment thousand people on average way McDonald's. But
the government will give you money. Where do they get
their money? The government? But people aren't working. Still, there'll
be a new program where you're dependent on the government,
(34:16):
But where does it get its tax revenue to create
and pay for that.
Speaker 3 (34:20):
Until tax McDonald's because there's McDonald Robotics is.
Speaker 2 (34:24):
Now going out of business. See that's that's that's the
evolution of this. That on the on the worst case
scenario because people don't know, Okay, if we replace all jobs,
all human.
Speaker 3 (34:38):
Well not to not to butt in, but on the
same subject, Jensen Wong was just interviewed and he had
something to say about all of this, which is an
interesting take on it.
Speaker 2 (34:48):
Give us a call at nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred to learn more about how we
help people and to set up a no obligation consultation.
Let us show you why we think we're different and
and better than most. Will then leave it up to
you to decide. So we were getting onto a very
important topic. And you know, and I think to survive
(35:12):
the coming collapse of the way we are used to
doing things. And that's my prediction, the coming collapse, that
there is a collapse coming because of a labor collapse
because we in this Industrial revolution, which is automation, robotics,
(35:33):
artificial intelligence, so on, and so forth. The difference between
this Industrial Revolution and say, you know, the automobile, or
the cell phone, or the internet or television going way back,
is that all of those things were created, derived, and
delivered by humans. This Industrial revolution is all about replacing humans.
(35:59):
That you don't need humans to do anything. And therefore,
if you replace humans and our traditional means of creating
capital to use for bartering a good or a service,
well guess what. Then there's no capital being created because
humans aren't aren't earning it and creating it for themselves.
(36:23):
And then nobody's walking into McDonald's, nobody's buying a new computer,
nobody's traveling to on vacation because they have no money.
And so I don't see that's the that's there, that's
the dire. So that time we start figuring out and
it's not me saying these things. He's got an example
(36:43):
of the nvidia's CEO on the other side, you know,
saying that, oh this is going to improve.
Speaker 3 (36:50):
No, he's calling he's calling out in his interview Jensen Wong,
who's the CEO of Nvidia. He's calling where was this posted?
By the way, I found this on x So this
was a Twitter This was an interview that he had
and there was just summarizing.
Speaker 2 (37:06):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (37:09):
So Jim Kramer asked him why companies are laying people
off and if AI is supposed to make everyone more productive.
He's kind of calling out CEOs and he said, for
companies with imagination, you will do more with more. For
companies where the leadership is just out of ideas, they
have nothing else to do, they have no reason to
imagine greater than they are.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
When they have more capability, they don't do more.
Speaker 3 (37:33):
So essentially he's saying companies are saying AI, and let's
go ahead and replace a human and just keep thinking
status quo right, and not use it as a tool
to find ways to do more, become either more efficient,
so then you have other ideas and further innovations and
so on and so forth, like us.
Speaker 2 (37:50):
We use How does a human outthink supercomputers and quantum computers?
Who thought of AI?
Speaker 3 (37:58):
Computer did?
Speaker 2 (37:59):
But now does the computer think of AI and create
a human now that it's done the speed of of
But you can't but.
Speaker 3 (38:08):
AI AI AI at the end of it is just
a computer. So it's never going to fully replace a human, right,
Like we talked about this before. But again the emotions,
the emotions, the soul, the gut intuition.
Speaker 2 (38:23):
That's that's where that's my prediction.
Speaker 3 (38:26):
The imagina, the imagination, I mean, does a computer imagine things?
Does a computer right? It's it has inputs, well, we
don't know outputs. Artificial intelligence could evolve too. But here's
my ultimate production. First, I think we're going to have
to crash before we you.
Speaker 2 (38:43):
Know, recreate and and and absolutely the next recreation you know,
when of course, we we moved offshore all you know, manufacturing,
and it became a thing to go made in America,
can buy Americans, you know. And and then that became what.
Speaker 3 (39:03):
If we have manufacturing here with robotics, right making socks
for example, We're not going to make We're not going
to make socks here. Like how profitable is it for.
Speaker 2 (39:13):
Something I think the next credible or not credible? But
why would well, why would it have to why would
the market have to craft humans delivered by humans? Organic? Yes,
that it's a human touch experience, an empathetic one things
that to your point a computer, a robot can't deliver
(39:34):
because it doesn't have a soul, it doesn't have empathy.
It can fake empathy maybe in the future, but people
will know it's fake because it's not delivered, you know,
by a soul. And so I think that you know, eventually, yes,
things will become more productive, things will become more profitable,
and we have a widow of opportunity to make a
(39:56):
lot of money. But twenty years from now, maybe even ten,
that there will be a massive correction in the way
that you know, profitability and value is determined, especially in
the equity markets. So then what these tech companies are
going to have to pull the plug at some point. Well,
think about it. If you're a CEO of a company
(40:18):
focused on simple supply side, supply and demand economics, you're
just focused on you know, your your your revolutionary product
and hire because you're not looking out ten years and
the fact that your your computers may be getting rid
of every coder, for example, every I person, the CEO,
(40:43):
you know, every your CFO, your COO, all these officers
that make a lot of money, and they're going to
be jobless. So their their creation is creating lack of
a job for them as CEO or or manager of
their particular company and.
Speaker 3 (41:02):
Replacing us with AI voices and our radio show podcasts.
Speaker 2 (41:05):
They're doing that now, right, I mean, how many people
are being faked? Celebrities, news being faked? Right? I watched
on TV and then they were saying, you know, this
was discovered to be a I well, of course it
was that I ran took out. I'm not sure which
carrier it was. I think it was. They were showing
that they took the aircrafts Abraham link and again it looked,
(41:29):
it looked so real. You know.
Speaker 3 (41:32):
Well, the other the other conspiracy that's flown around to
is Yah Who's dead. I've seen a bunch of stuff
out there, and then you know, current videos. But then
they're you know, critiquing the video saying, no, this is AI,
this is not actually him in an interview, and.
Speaker 2 (41:47):
Well, I think he's underground, not maybe maybe even literally
just because of obviously there's a you know, he's a
big target, you know, for for Iran, just as Trump is,
just as the Iranian leaders are in this in this conflict.
But nevertheless, I think again, let's let's bring this all
(42:10):
back to what this show is about. All the types
of things that we're constantly looking into. We're trying to
absorb as much information as we possibly can handle while
we lose more hair, Right with more, you're you're losing hair,
but you're not fault yet. The more information we take
(42:31):
and absorbent because we, as your advisors, want to worry
about this for you, want to help you have a
great retirement where you're not having to watch the television,
watch oil prices, watch interest rates screens, watch metal's decisions,
watch what you know earnings are doing, watch what elections
(42:52):
are doing, on and on and on, because we focus
on what your plan says. You need to accomplish all
your goals and objectives, and then we'll build and routinely
review and maintain the best possible portfolio we can to
reduce risk, mitigate taxes and get you the level of
(43:15):
returns that will be success for you and give you
confidence and how do you set that up? By calling
nine six ninety six seven thirty five hundred for a
new obligation consultation or to register for our seminar our
dinner Seminar in Walnut Creek at Diablo Hills Golf Course
(43:36):
from six to seven thirty pm on April twenty ninth,
which is a Wednesday, last Wednesday of the month. Again,
give us a call at nine one six ninety six
seven thirty five hundred. Any final thoughts. No, I think
we covered love.
Speaker 3 (43:51):
We have just wanted this one by fast.
Speaker 2 (43:54):
We had a lot of tops. Oh, by the way,
you can watch this show on a YouTube channel which
is I always forget is it at? Why so many
guys to find it? Or just no, you're just search
Yeah that's right.
Speaker 3 (44:10):
So you just searched John Scambray, just Happy, Wisconte or
the Wise Money guys and it should pop up.
Speaker 2 (44:15):
Yeah. So our show from the weekend usually comes out
around Monday or so. If you want to re listen
to anything we talked about or just see our lovely faces,
you know, go to YouTube and you can watch us there.
And you can also find these shows on our podcast,
which you can find on our website, you can find
on the iHeartMedia app. You can find all over the internet.
(44:39):
If again, you just search our names, John Scambraene, just
happyp Scani, have a wonderful Saturday. Come back and listen
to us next weekend.
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight for disclosures and more information, and
visit our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show.
I'm your co host, John Scambray and I'm here with
my partner extraordinaire just Up Visconti, and we are certified
portfolio managers and we love helping people who are retired
or about to retire manage their money. If you like
our show, as always, please give us a call anytime
(00:34):
at nine one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred
for any reason, but if you're just looking to have
some initial questions answered, some of those can be answered
by visiting our website, which is wisemoneyguys dot com. Important
disclosures are there. You can scroll down to the end
of the page and see all of our important disclosures
(00:56):
as well as a visit around the various reason sources
that are there. There's always great and current content in
the form of newsletters and articles and videos that are
routinely updated and posted there for you to get some
of your questions answered. Also if you want to arrange
(01:18):
a no obligation computation, which we highly recommend you do,
especially with everything we're going to talk about today and
everything going on. Plus it's tax time, so on and
so forth, give us a call again at nine one
six nine sixty seven thirty five hundred. Lastly, if you're
listening in the East Bay area, we are having our
(01:43):
first seminar dinner seminar for retirees and people about to retire,
especially if you are considering whether or not you can
afford to retire. That's some of the answers that we
will provide for you at that seminar or specifically at
(02:04):
a consultation. But that will be on April twenty ninth,
from six to seven thirty p n April, yeah, last
Wednesday in April, from six to seven thirty pm at
Diablo Hills Country Club. Well it's not a country club,
golf course really is pretty enough to be a country
(02:26):
club quite frankly, which is just off the six point
eighty kind of between Pleasant Hill and Walnut Creek in
the East Bay. So give us a call to sign
up for that. We're talking about it now because we
get way more sign ups than there is space. So
(02:46):
if you're one who's already retired, you've been really concerned
about the volatility, all the things that are going on
in the world, how to potentially and look at how
rebalancing might help you de risk your portfolio a bit.
Just if you're on track or not. Yeah, if you're
(03:09):
on track, hopefully, if you're on track, you're you're looking
to see if you're on track based on a financial plan.
If you don't have a financial plan, again, another reason
to call us for a new obligation consultation. We will
do a financial plan for you no obligation, as well
as show you why planning and having professionals who have
(03:33):
been doing this a very long time, I like to
say we're battle tested since we've been doing this fifty
years ish combined. And so once again, if you want
to come to that seminar on April twenty ninth because
you're retired or about to retire, and you're concerned about
your investments and have or have not updated your plan
(03:56):
in a while called nine to one six nine six,
seven thirty five five hundred, So let's dive in. We've got,
of course a lot of economic things going on a
lot of geopolitical things happening around the world that are
affecting our markets. As you all know the Federal Reserve
meeting that just happened this week. Ye Jerome Palell my
(04:17):
favorite not really person who is way out of his
roles and responsibilities in my opinion.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
We'll dive into that, get into the die tribe and
get you all work out there. We go get my
as long as you take you blood pressure medicine today.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
Oh by the way, this show is brought to you
by One Source Wealth Management. We are a redored investment
advisory firm A. Our license number is three one nine
zero seven eight and again for more information and disclosures,
you can visit our website, go.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
On so FMC meeting and we'll dive into that throughout
the segments. What's going on in the latest with the
Middle East conflicts, how's that impacting the market and the economy.
And then a fun fun thing, I don't know if
it's fun, but listening on the radio and New York's
new governor, Mom Donnie proposing a thirty dollars minimum wage.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
So I thought he calls them cammy mom Donniemi Mom Donnie.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
But he's proposing a thirty dollars minimum wage for New York.
So I thought it'd be fun to look at some
of the data and how and use California as an example,
since a couple of years ago we had put out
not we, but you know, the powers that be within
California put out a twenty dollars minimum wage for the
fast food chain. So I pulled up some data and
(05:45):
how that's impacted the small business environment industry within California
specifically in the past couple of years.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
That will be able to dive into just real quick
along those lines. I was watching Fox Business the other morning,
the Stuart Varney Show, and on the Stuart Vanni Show,
they were talking about the governor and uh and it
was the Governor Hogel of New York and it was
related to Commune Mom Donnie and his wanting to increase
(06:15):
minimum wage to thirty dollars. And what they were talking
about that the regular guests on and the co hosts
of the Stuart Varney Show, was that since COVID, New
York has lost one point seven million people in population movement,
moving from New York to Florida, to Tennessee to Texas.
(06:40):
You know, to the Carolinas, to what we've seen in
California two one. I had no idea it was that
that number, I mean one point seven million. The whole
state is like fifteen million, you know or whatever it
is with you know, well.
Speaker 3 (06:55):
Twelve of it in New York and could could continue
to get worse if some of these you know proposed.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
That's what made me think of it, that thirty use.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Well not only that, but then just like wealth tax
and all these other additional taxes on the wealthy and
what have you. I mean, we're we're battling it here
in this state with the five percent wealth tax for.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
Is it billionaires? Right?
Speaker 3 (07:17):
For billionaires? Sergey I forgot his last name, but the
Google the Google exec's Brandon and Brannon, but he put yeah,
Brandon right, he put twenty or twenty five million additionally
preference to try and block that, he just put in
another I read another forty to forty five million of
(07:37):
his own money to campaign against.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
The Well, hopefully they block any effort. And again this
isn't this isn't read anywhere or but I've I've seen
and heard squealings of wanting to try to repeal prop
thirteen again in California, which like New York, would be
just devastating. You know, if you property tag mass with
(08:02):
people's property taxes, especially ones that.
Speaker 3 (08:05):
Yeah, why don't you break down Prop thirteen? Some of
those that aren't, they were familiar with it.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
One hundred pers literally just cause a collapse to the
value of real estate and wealth in California.
Speaker 3 (08:18):
Well, it's based off of your purchase price. You buy home,
and then your your property taxes are based off of
that purchase price, and then it gets assessed every year.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
Think of parents, grandparents, great grandparents, where you know they've
owned the same and lived in the same house or
owned the same rental or retitt right for thirty forty
fifty sixty years, paid pennies on the dollar based on
what the value is today, and then all of a sudden,
(08:47):
you go, oh, you're all getting reassessed to current value.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Based off of value when they bought it and inflated
like two percent or so per year, and then revert
and then taking that away and reverting to current market
values which have skyrocketed. It would just stretch, especially after
the five well Canada I had. There was an article
I read last year Canada does that. I think it's
in Toronto, and people were complaining about it, especially the
(09:15):
all of the retired community because they're living on fixed income, right,
they're not earning more additional income or bonuses or anything
like that. Get the property taxes and values of skyrocketed over,
you know, the last decade, and they're not even able
to afford to stand in their own health.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Well, what's so funny is think of all these people
that do have, you know, the means to leave the country,
especially there's so it's funny how many actors are country
what's that leave the country, leave the US and they
threaten I'm going back to Canada for the healthcare system
or the and you know, because you know, whatever whatever
(09:58):
they think Trump is doing or not doing this that
or the other. And believe there's like two that I
can think of, but yeah, we should do studying Ellen
and and her her girlfriend and then actually left. Well,
the other one that the heavier set comedian lady Rosie o'donnald.
(10:21):
She went to Ireland is O'Donnell and she left because.
Speaker 3 (10:26):
Hopefully she's drinking some good scotch there.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
I don't know what she's drinking, but she is, she's
a little on the crazy side.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
Well, when we come back, we'll dive into Middle East,
what's what's the updates and what's going on there, how
it's impacting the market and the economy, and then dive
in more into the Federal Reserve.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
And how I believe it's creating opportunity.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
Last last half full, last half.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
Full, because we focus on what your plan says, you
need to accomplish all your goals and objectives, and then
we'll build and routinely review and maintain the best possible
portfolio we can to reduce risk, mitigate taxes and get
you the level of returns that will be success for
(11:18):
you and give you confidence. And how do you set
that up? By calling nine six ninety six seven thirty
five hundred for a new obligation consultation or to register
for our seminar our dinner seminar in Walnut Creek at
Diablo Hills Golf Course from six to seven thirty pm
(11:38):
on April twenty ninth, which is a Wednesday, last Wednesday
of the month. Again, give us a call at nine
one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. You're listening
to John Scambra here with my partner Joseppe Vescani, and
how do you talk about the economy, you know, geopolitics,
the world investments, anything without talking about out and gosh,
(12:01):
it's kind of getting, you know, nauseating. But it's a
lot like the FED to me in every meeting, which
is nauseating because no man should have that much power
over world markets by him just speaking what they discussed
in their FMC meeting, which they were never doing before.
Jerome Powell, by the way, they should stick to their script,
(12:24):
in my humble opinion, and stay out of politics, stay out.
Speaker 3 (12:29):
Of stay away from the cameras as much, stay.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
Away, way too much time in front of the camera
and just trying to feel your egos because that's all
that is. Their job isn't to be in front of
a camera. So that's neither here nor there. But but again,
a lot of the conversation around Iran is starting to
(12:52):
feel like that. Thank god we haven't had, you know,
a lot of deaths, because that would really just make
this even more horrible. But you know, so really and hopefully.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
Hopefully we don't, because it doesn't look like it's short
of a term conflict as we had hoped from the beginning.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
And think about that for a second. Really, are we
that spoiled that we think that what three weeks and
everybody's going, oh my god, this is it's going to
be a forever war forever. We hope. We hope it's
not right. That's the thing is. We hope it's not
going to be. I know it's not going to be.
(13:33):
I mean, there's there's listen, we're getting a lot of
fake news. This is this is our opinion. But I
watch the news every morning, every afternoon. I read constantly
everything I can get my hands on on things that
I think are going to affect our clients and our lives,
(13:55):
especially financially. And there's so much information and tell coming
out and actual people who you know are Iranian and
have fled Iran or are still going back in various ways,
you know, to try to really help this cause and
now are trying to get to regime change. I think
(14:18):
that would be the best thing for the world, you know, financially,
you know, humanitarian. So how long does that take? Question?
So again, but again based on based on people that
I would tend to error that they are credible. Time
(14:39):
is running out, that the resources are running out we're
now going and this was again I'm this is this
is not in writing. This is listening to the various
news shows on TV, you know, and specific ones, because
you'll get just the opposite from you know, counter political
(14:59):
show meaning right of CNN, and you're part of that party,
you're gonna get something very different than if you're listening
to Fox and and and that party. But on the
side that I listened to, you know, we're now we're
now dropping five thousand pound bombs on the installations, the
(15:19):
military installations, and mining capabilities and drone launching capabilities on
the on the the coastline of the straight to horror moves,
and things are drastically different. The retaliation you know from
Iran is it's in single digit numbers as far as percent,
(15:45):
you know, of decrease from just twenty some odd days
ago when this began. The amount of of countermeasures gone,
the amount of you know, missiles going into uh uh
Israel a fraction of what it was, and on and
on and on. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (16:05):
Well now no recently, uh this week uh Qatar reported
irony missile strikes to their LGN or LNG facility rass
laughin and that we saw and that's This is interesting though,
is because we've been which is good for we've been.
We've been, we've been tied, strongly tied with Israel.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
The net exporter of LNG right.
Speaker 3 (16:29):
Right, but Israel attacked Iran's largest gas processing facility without
a South pars Field. Trump put out.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
If you do this again, we're going to take yours
out right.
Speaker 3 (16:40):
No, Trump put out that, which was interesting. He's and
he put out there that Israel did that did it
out of most likely anger. It was not the US.
Israel is not going to be attacking that. Iran put
missile strikes towards Katar. So then now the the rhetoric
(17:01):
there coming from Trump was essentially leave Qatar a loan.
It wasn't US. We're not going to be doing this anymore.
Israel is not going to be doing this anymore.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
So it was interesting. No, but he also had an
if and a butt right in there if you do.
But it was interesting to see loan we won't. There's
that island, right, what's the island called for Iran? Where
it's in Kong Island. No, it's their main campo of
where they they load the the oil tankers and all
(17:32):
of that. There's his threat was, we will not do
this oil, but if you continue to do these things,
we will because it will not impact it will impact
world prices, but it will not prevent you know, uh,
GDP in the US. In fact, it will increase GDP
(17:54):
in the US because we'll have to step up our
production even more to become a net exporter of oil,
not just natural gas and liquefied natural.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
But the markets are looking at this as a global
they're not looking at this as just US.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
And what can you or not I did on Russia.
Speaker 3 (18:13):
Yeah, well we'll see, we'll see, you know, we'll see.
But I mean, so far this is you know, you
saw crude after the fm C meeting and some of
these attacks and Qatar and so on and so forth
go above one hundred dollars again. So because because these
which is not it's not healthy. It's not healthy for
the market.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
Saying a word, now, all of a sudden, there commodities.
It's not FMC by itself, I know, that's what I'm saying.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
It's the it's the strikes that have happened between Iran
Israel and now you know, no.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
Guitar there but from a hole in the walls as
you know, I mean the f O m C. I'm
not saying. But know what I'm saying is to even
if anything Powell actually kind of downplayed, right, but to
even go on the camera and say anything positive or negative.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
They downplayed it, which would be a positive. It wasn't
in his It wasn't so much in his speech. It
was the questioning afterwards, and they were continuing to question
on Iran and inflation and the war and oil and.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
So and so.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
He has so he has to he has to answer it,
I mean, just in defense to him. He has to
answer it.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
But he downplayed.
Speaker 3 (19:22):
He just says, basically, there's uncertainty and we don't know
how it's going to play out. Point BLA.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
So not a fan of anything that comes out of
that person's mouth.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
I don't think it's specifically the person. I think it's
just the production. It's like what you said before, there
shouldn't be so much media attention, production, so many speeches,
interviews with Powell, interviews with FED presidents, social media, uh,
them going on social media. It should just be like
it had been two decades ago, where it was just
(19:56):
the FEDS reacted based off of unemployment and inflation.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
They use your tools necessary.
Speaker 3 (20:03):
They came out and when you heard something is when
they came out and they had their FMC speech letting
people know what they did and what they decided and why.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
And that was it. Yeah, it's pretty simple. Stay out
of free markets. That's it, end of story. How do
you feel about that? Right? I mean, that's what all
the media sensationalism is is getting involved in manipulation of
free markets. And that's what the FED has been doing,
which is not part of their responsibility.
Speaker 3 (20:32):
Part of the problem is that what's different also now
from back then as well as that the market moves
second by second because of the speed of information.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
It doesn't move at the fmcs when they're when they're
when they're speaking.
Speaker 3 (20:49):
Yeah. Right, So there's instant reactions not only by investors,
but more so algorithmic computer trading and hedge funds and
things like that that move things. I mean, as soon
as the speech comes out, everything is being digested, and
now with AI everything's being interpretated and trades and activities happening,
(21:10):
and you'll see the market just whereas before when when
there wasn't all of this right in computer training and
algorithms and so on and so forth.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
You didn't see it move.
Speaker 3 (21:19):
Around as much, right, there was there was a delay,
so you had time to digest the information versus making
like knee jerk or instantaneous reactions.
Speaker 2 (21:28):
So here's my two cents about it, which I've probably
given more like ninety nine cents. Two cents. But the
reality is these are things that you have to be
paying attention to, right and you hope that your investment
advisory firm, if it's not us, or you're doing yourself,
that you're paying attention to how these things affect your
(21:51):
investments and your financial life. That's what it all boils
down to. The reason why we even get into these,
you know, debates or conversations about these things, is because
you know it. It makes us we don't want to react,
you know, but we will use us.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
Think of us as the filter, right, We're we're the
filter of all this mass amounts of information through all
sources of media and what's being said. To to take
all this information, digest it, use our knowledge, use our background,
use our credentials, use our years of experience to then
say is this something to.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
Take action on?
Speaker 3 (22:32):
Or is this is this over over exaggeration, overreaction of
what we're seeing in the markets right now do we
have do we hold steadfast or should there be a
move or a pivot or rebounce.
Speaker 2 (22:43):
And that's where I think tremendous, So tremendous mistakes can
be avoided and not you know, getting emotional or painicking
about you know, what's going on, and just making sure
that you know you're not overly exposed to any one
of some level of risk in any one specific area,
(23:07):
and then you won't have to, you know, uh, get
fearful and panic and make potentially bad decisions. So give
us a call at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred to learn more about how we help
people and to set up a no obligation consultation. Let
us show you why we think we're different and and
(23:28):
and better quite frankly, uh then then most and we'll
then leave it up to you to decide. So we
started the show talking about New York. I got on
a little bit of a die tribe about hogel and
and the mass exodus of people, you know, voting with
their feet. But this this thing, you know, uh, it
(23:52):
just amazes me, the minimum wage thing that they're not
going to take California as an example. In fact, think
that what can you glean from California doing the same
thing raising minimum wage to what is it twenty or
twenty five?
Speaker 3 (24:09):
Twenty yeah, April of twenty twenty four, twenty dollars we raised, well,
California raised fast food chains which included like included national
chains with sixty plus locations to bump up them in
ways to twenty dollars. So I pulled the data.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
For California's economy.
Speaker 3 (24:32):
And right, yeah, So I pulled a bunch of data
of what's taking place so far, negative and positive, try
to do both sides. What's funny is the only studies
that came out that showed positive. Right, There's multiple like Harvard,
you see Santa Cruz, who else? Or franchise owners themselves,
(25:01):
the National Board of Economics resources, There's multiple sources of
the negative impacts of what this minimum wage in the
fast food chain took place within California. The ones that
come out with positive studies was primarily one university, California
University that came out with positive.
Speaker 2 (25:22):
Studies on all this don't tell right in La probably right? No, Berkeley, Okay,
northern California. Yeah, for sure, Berkeley, you know, United Communist
College of Berkeley, So.
Speaker 3 (25:37):
Which is you know they have I mean Einstein came
out of Berkeley, right, he studied in Berkeley science and physics, right.
Speaker 2 (25:43):
For a little bit, Yeah, I think so. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (25:47):
So the positive aspect obviously in the initial was that
pay rose eight to eighteen percent for you know, for
existing employees within those that were impacted with the fast
food change, so boosting retention, cutting turnover. There was a
lot of applications that came in initially, right because everybody
(26:10):
want to go and work for fast food because you're
getting paid twenty dollars an hour. The negatives eighteen thousand
jobs lost. There was a study that you see Santa
Cruz put out there reports of reduced hours twelve percent
drop and sampled McDonald's as far as full time versus
(26:31):
part time. There was dozens of full time jobs lost,
hiring freezes. EPI analysis site fifteen to twenty thousand in
job losses.
Speaker 2 (26:41):
You know, backing up a little bit to McDonald's, I
wonder if that was the reason. Why is when California kids,
you you see recently, well over the last several years,
that in McDonald's as an example, all of a sudden,
now they don't even take orders right right. Used to
have three four people at the counter that would say,
welcome to McDonald's. Can I take your order? And now
(27:03):
it's it's four kiosks that you see and one person
might come up and put your food around the counter,
or if you just can't figure out how to do
the kiosk because but it's a skeleton crew up at
the front. It's nobody.
Speaker 3 (27:19):
So there's there's more of that.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
So probably minimum wage and technology is guess what getting
rid of you know, Josh, human, rid of human.
Speaker 3 (27:30):
There's so there's been reports of more of that going
on with franchise owners, you know, replacing the the entry
level right order takers and putting the digitized screens and
automated orders in. There's been business closers Rubios.
Speaker 2 (27:48):
Which I haven't been to Rubio's a long time. I
forgot about. That's my great stuff. All of my kids,
all three during high school, all worked for Rubios because
it was in the bel Air shopping center in Fulsome
and we live literally in the neighbor.
Speaker 3 (28:01):
Yeah, there's some goods, had some good food right there.
Speaker 2 (28:03):
They did, and all through. I think Jessica may have
worked there the longest. And yeah, all of them. They
get so mad at me when when Stace and I
their mom and I would go in in order when
they were working, Hi, honey, and that's that's my daughter
right there, and then they would just give us the
dirty It looks.
Speaker 3 (28:24):
So Rubius shut down forty eight locations in twenty twenty
four amid rising crisis. You see Santa Cruz wh In
their study they say, you know, the pressure was really
on profits, leading to selective closures and paused expansions. UC
Berkeley came out saying that faster faster food establishments growth
(28:47):
in California versus US. I don't know the validity of that,
but that's that's their that's their positives.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
I can't believe anything.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
Later, costs went up about twenty five percent for covered operators,
prompting eight to twelve percent menu price increases. Right, So
that's inflationary and that's what we've seen, right. You see
those like value meals and stuff, all of them are
gone out.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
I mean think about it. You go to thirty dollars
minimum wage, I mean that impacts what labor jobs are
left that were right. Skilled labor is already above minimum wage.
So there's no plumbers or electricians or welders or framers
or you know, programmers or whatever it is that are
below thirty dollars an hour. But jobs non California, right
(29:31):
is the is the McDonald's worker.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
Well, and it's spilled, so there's spillover the bar back well,
they're spillover too. So the so even though the twenty
dollars minimum wage mail person took place within just the
you know, fast food chains, there's spillover in non covered
small businesses. And we've talked to our own clients that
have small businesses that they've had challenges and they've had
(29:54):
to raise their wages, even though it has nothing to
do with the fast food because their employees are paid
sixteen bucks an Now.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Go to in and out Burger and get thirty dollars
an hour, and well, and thirty dollars an hour. By
the way, what is that, well, I think in and
out already it's twelve hundred dollars in and out, I
think already paid a little bit time. Then it's staying
near sixty thousand dollars a year to flip burgers, or
to be a you know, a a attendant that walks
(30:21):
around a retail clothing store, or I mean it's just
it's ridiculous, or somebody to answer the phone, which you know,
we found in expectations when we were looking. I don't
know if you were involved, but when I was looking
for a receptionist, people would come in and go and
want seventy five thousand or one hundred thousand dollars a
(30:43):
receptionist to be a receptionist.
Speaker 3 (30:45):
Yeah, well that's what you get sometimes with some of
the you know, not all, but some of the younger generation.
They have these expectations.
Speaker 2 (30:53):
I do I deserve college in California. I deserve, I deserve. Hey,
I went to college in California. I know, and I
I did too. And I think a lot, So you're worthless, well,
I think now, unfortunately, no, I think a lot of
the degrees and when you, you know, compare it to the
cost of what those degrees are, the costs, it is worthless.
Speaker 3 (31:14):
It is at the cost has gone up, well, the
cost has gone up so much you gotta you gotta
well the benefit versus a cost.
Speaker 2 (31:23):
I just was talking about, and I know I'm getting
you off topic, but but it's relevant. It's relevant investments
and and and how this is going to affect people
who are on fixed incomes, which is the majority of
our client base. Is his daughter, my cousin's daughter. Uh,
she's senior. She got accepted to several different schools. One
(31:45):
of the nice ones is a private school, loyal of Marrimont.
And do you know what they raised their tuitions? It
used to be like the University of San Diego, the
private school that was probably one of the most expensive
princeton you know, another are super expensive. One private ninety
(32:05):
thousand dollars a year. Now I don't know if that's
special room and board and everything. Yeah, your room, board,
books tuition ninety grand a year. Crazy is the estimate
that he received from.
Speaker 3 (32:19):
The better be studying some like the fabsa AI or financial.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
Engineering AI or something. Again, there's nothing, and you know,
unless you want to be something, you want to come
out hopefully with, you know, going after a becoming an
attorney or a surgeon. Attorneys who knows, I wouldn't do
programming or tech because all of that that's all going
(32:44):
to be replaced, right.
Speaker 3 (32:46):
Even even some of the attorney you're seeing online stuff,
especially like a state attorney. Right, Yeah, some of that
stuff is being all digitized.
Speaker 2 (32:53):
So what all boils down to is that you got
to really make sure that your investments are going to
help you, you know, grow your overall capabilities to keep
up with you know, the price of things. And more importantly, Shoot,
(33:13):
if we crash things economically, because think about that, and
get rid of employment, even at the technical level and
the skilled level, then there's no more demand. Yeah. And
if there's no more demand, well, then there's no more
profits for these publicly treated companies.
Speaker 3 (33:31):
So you're saying, if you walk into McDonald's and you
order a big mac meal and you ordered it through
the digitized screen and then the robots in the back
made that meal for you, Yeah, McDonald's isn't making any profit.
Speaker 2 (33:47):
No, No, that that's where you missed a part.
Speaker 3 (33:51):
The twenty dollars an hour employee doesn't have money to
pay for that.
Speaker 2 (33:54):
It's simpler meal because you're unemployed. You're not you're making
no income. So I mean you don't walk into McDonald's.
That's the part you missed. There's nobody. So if we
put the mcment thousand people on average way McDonald's. But
the government will give you money. Where do they get
their money? The government? But people aren't working. Still, there'll
be a new program where you're dependent on the government,
(34:16):
But where does it get its tax revenue to create
and pay for that.
Speaker 3 (34:20):
Until tax McDonald's because there's McDonald Robotics is.
Speaker 2 (34:24):
Now going out of business. See that's that's that's the
evolution of this. That on the on the worst case
scenario because people don't know, Okay, if we replace all jobs,
all human.
Speaker 3 (34:38):
Well not to not to butt in, but on the
same subject, Jensen Wong was just interviewed and he had
something to say about all of this, which is an
interesting take on it.
Speaker 2 (34:48):
Give us a call at nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred to learn more about how we
help people and to set up a no obligation consultation.
Let us show you why we think we're different and
and better than most. Will then leave it up to
you to decide. So we were getting onto a very
important topic. And you know, and I think to survive
(35:12):
the coming collapse of the way we are used to
doing things. And that's my prediction, the coming collapse, that
there is a collapse coming because of a labor collapse
because we in this Industrial revolution, which is automation, robotics,
(35:33):
artificial intelligence, so on, and so forth. The difference between
this Industrial Revolution and say, you know, the automobile, or
the cell phone, or the internet or television going way back,
is that all of those things were created, derived, and
delivered by humans. This Industrial revolution is all about replacing humans.
(35:59):
That you don't need humans to do anything. And therefore,
if you replace humans and our traditional means of creating
capital to use for bartering a good or a service,
well guess what. Then there's no capital being created because
humans aren't aren't earning it and creating it for themselves.
(36:23):
And then nobody's walking into McDonald's, nobody's buying a new computer,
nobody's traveling to on vacation because they have no money.
And so I don't see that's the that's there, that's
the dire. So that time we start figuring out and
it's not me saying these things. He's got an example
(36:43):
of the nvidia's CEO on the other side, you know,
saying that, oh this is going to improve.
Speaker 3 (36:50):
No, he's calling he's calling out in his interview Jensen Wong,
who's the CEO of Nvidia. He's calling where was this posted?
By the way, I found this on x So this
was a Twitter This was an interview that he had
and there was just summarizing.
Speaker 2 (37:06):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (37:09):
So Jim Kramer asked him why companies are laying people
off and if AI is supposed to make everyone more productive.
He's kind of calling out CEOs and he said, for
companies with imagination, you will do more with more. For
companies where the leadership is just out of ideas, they
have nothing else to do, they have no reason to
imagine greater than they are.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
When they have more capability, they don't do more.
Speaker 3 (37:33):
So essentially he's saying companies are saying AI, and let's
go ahead and replace a human and just keep thinking
status quo right, and not use it as a tool
to find ways to do more, become either more efficient,
so then you have other ideas and further innovations and
so on and so forth, like us.
Speaker 2 (37:50):
We use How does a human outthink supercomputers and quantum computers?
Who thought of AI?
Speaker 3 (37:58):
Computer did?
Speaker 2 (37:59):
But now does the computer think of AI and create
a human now that it's done the speed of of
But you can't but.
Speaker 3 (38:08):
AI AI AI at the end of it is just
a computer. So it's never going to fully replace a human, right,
Like we talked about this before. But again the emotions,
the emotions, the soul, the gut intuition.
Speaker 2 (38:23):
That's that's where that's my prediction.
Speaker 3 (38:26):
The imagina, the imagination, I mean, does a computer imagine things?
Does a computer right? It's it has inputs, well, we
don't know outputs. Artificial intelligence could evolve too. But here's
my ultimate production. First, I think we're going to have
to crash before we you.
Speaker 2 (38:43):
Know, recreate and and and absolutely the next recreation you know,
when of course, we we moved offshore all you know, manufacturing,
and it became a thing to go made in America,
can buy Americans, you know. And and then that became what.
Speaker 3 (39:03):
If we have manufacturing here with robotics, right making socks
for example, We're not going to make We're not going
to make socks here. Like how profitable is it for.
Speaker 2 (39:13):
Something I think the next credible or not credible? But
why would well, why would it have to why would
the market have to craft humans delivered by humans? Organic? Yes,
that it's a human touch experience, an empathetic one things
that to your point a computer, a robot can't deliver
(39:34):
because it doesn't have a soul, it doesn't have empathy.
It can fake empathy maybe in the future, but people
will know it's fake because it's not delivered, you know,
by a soul. And so I think that you know, eventually, yes,
things will become more productive, things will become more profitable,
and we have a widow of opportunity to make a
(39:56):
lot of money. But twenty years from now, maybe even ten,
that there will be a massive correction in the way
that you know, profitability and value is determined, especially in
the equity markets. So then what these tech companies are
going to have to pull the plug at some point. Well,
think about it. If you're a CEO of a company
(40:18):
focused on simple supply side, supply and demand economics, you're
just focused on you know, your your your revolutionary product
and hire because you're not looking out ten years and
the fact that your your computers may be getting rid
of every coder, for example, every I person, the CEO,
(40:43):
you know, every your CFO, your COO, all these officers
that make a lot of money, and they're going to
be jobless. So their their creation is creating lack of
a job for them as CEO or or manager of
their particular company and.
Speaker 3 (41:02):
Replacing us with AI voices and our radio show podcasts.
Speaker 2 (41:05):
They're doing that now, right, I mean, how many people
are being faked? Celebrities, news being faked? Right? I watched
on TV and then they were saying, you know, this
was discovered to be a I well, of course it
was that I ran took out. I'm not sure which
carrier it was. I think it was. They were showing
that they took the aircrafts Abraham link and again it looked,
(41:29):
it looked so real. You know.
Speaker 3 (41:32):
Well, the other the other conspiracy that's flown around to
is Yah Who's dead. I've seen a bunch of stuff
out there, and then you know, current videos. But then
they're you know, critiquing the video saying, no, this is AI,
this is not actually him in an interview, and.
Speaker 2 (41:47):
Well, I think he's underground, not maybe maybe even literally
just because of obviously there's a you know, he's a
big target, you know, for for Iran, just as Trump is,
just as the Iranian leaders are in this in this conflict.
But nevertheless, I think again, let's let's bring this all
(42:10):
back to what this show is about. All the types
of things that we're constantly looking into. We're trying to
absorb as much information as we possibly can handle while
we lose more hair, Right with more, you're you're losing hair,
but you're not fault yet. The more information we take
(42:31):
and absorbent because we, as your advisors, want to worry
about this for you, want to help you have a
great retirement where you're not having to watch the television,
watch oil prices, watch interest rates screens, watch metal's decisions,
watch what you know earnings are doing, watch what elections
(42:52):
are doing, on and on and on, because we focus
on what your plan says. You need to accomplish all
your goals and objectives, and then we'll build and routinely
review and maintain the best possible portfolio we can to
reduce risk, mitigate taxes and get you the level of
(43:15):
returns that will be success for you and give you
confidence and how do you set that up? By calling
nine six ninety six seven thirty five hundred for a
new obligation consultation or to register for our seminar our
dinner Seminar in Walnut Creek at Diablo Hills Golf Course
(43:36):
from six to seven thirty pm on April twenty ninth,
which is a Wednesday, last Wednesday of the month. Again,
give us a call at nine one six ninety six
seven thirty five hundred. Any final thoughts. No, I think
we covered love.
Speaker 3 (43:51):
We have just wanted this one by fast.
Speaker 2 (43:54):
We had a lot of tops. Oh, by the way,
you can watch this show on a YouTube channel which
is I always forget is it at? Why so many
guys to find it? Or just no, you're just search
Yeah that's right.
Speaker 3 (44:10):
So you just searched John Scambray, just Happy, Wisconte or
the Wise Money guys and it should pop up.
Speaker 2 (44:15):
Yeah. So our show from the weekend usually comes out
around Monday or so. If you want to re listen
to anything we talked about or just see our lovely faces,
you know, go to YouTube and you can watch us there.
And you can also find these shows on our podcast,
which you can find on our website, you can find
on the iHeartMedia app. You can find all over the internet.
(44:39):
If again, you just search our names, John Scambraene, just
happyp Scani, have a wonderful Saturday. Come back and listen
to us next weekend.
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