March 27, 2026 • 45 mins
There are a lot of Financial reactions and Political influences in the investment market as we enter the 3rd week of military action in Iran. Hosts John and Giuseppe see it all and take a step back. It's part of their process of taking advantage in a volatile market. Plus, an overview of the Interest Rates, Structured notes, Energy Investments, and our seminar announced for April 29th in the East Bay. The Wise Money Guys.
Listen
Watch
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management, SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight for disclosures and more information, and
visit our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys radio Show.
I'm your co host John Scambray. I'm here with my
partner Jaseethe Visconti, and we are certified portfolio managers and
longtime investment advisors that specialize in helping people who are retired,
are about to retire and manage their money. As always,
if you like the show and want to get together
for a no obligation consultation or have questions of any kind,
(00:35):
you can give us a call at nine one six
ninety six seven thirty five hundred, or you can visit
our website Wisemoneyguys dot com for more information and important disclosures.
This show is sponsored by One Source Wealth Management. We
are a registered investment advisory firm licensed three to one
nine zero seven eight. Our main office is out of
(00:56):
Grant Bay, California, but we also have office office locations
that could be near you, either in the Bay area
or the Tahoe Reno area as well, so we've got
a pretty big agenda today. Obviously, there's a lot that
has been happening, whether it's the conflict in the Middle East.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
Yeah, still uncertainty out there.
Speaker 4 (01:19):
Nothing, nothing's been resolved, and we're just kind of a
wait and see, and markets are in that same predicament, right,
wait and see. What's going on with with the war,
especially oil. There's been some fluctuation with gold. We'll touch
on how the stock market's been reacting, what the stock
(01:40):
market might be telling us as far as what the
stock market thinks is going to be going on with
the war. Is there going to be long term is
it going to be short term? Also bonds, which is
affecting interest rates, so bond yields or interest rates of bonds,
the tenure treasury especially we've talked plenty about in previous
shows and how that's moving, borrowing costs up like mortgages
(02:04):
and car loans and so on and so forth, and
touch on.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
All of it.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
Yeah, hopefully after listening to this show today we will
instill some calm. I think overall, Yes, there's all these
different things going on, but no need to panic in
my opinion. But we'll we'll talk more specifically about why
you shouldn't panic and more importantly what to do in
(02:32):
what we're doing as far as in in reaction to
all the different things that that you just mentioned. But
let's get started, you know, And it just drives me crazy.
I think the sensationalism.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
You take a car and to get repaired.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Yeah, so we don't we don't want to get you
fired up after what you experienced a Mortga dealership. Oh
it's fine morning, But but where I was going is
that I think that the reaction is an overreaction.
Speaker 5 (03:04):
The yes, the oil.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Reactioning wildly, clearly after a month of the you know,
the conflict uh in the Middle East with Iran. Clearly
it's done nothing to impact our supply of it. It
really hasn't done anything to impact world supply. Russia and
(03:30):
China are still unfortunately getting their oil delivered through the
straight of horror moves. Saudi Arabia and other big OPEC
countries are delivering their oil through pipelines and other means.
The US, of course, is is net exporter of natural
gas and and and barely imports any oil. I mean,
(03:54):
we have more oil than we even know what to
do with, and we've ramped up our production, don't forget.
We've also you know, now have unfettered access to Venezuelan oil.
And so it's really just not Cuba though, Well that's
the whole point. Cuba, and I think the regime is
going to fall there. I think communism is going to fall,
(04:18):
just like it did, you know during the Reagan years
in eastern Germany, and I think it's going to fall
in Cuba.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (04:27):
The big thing is just the the freeways, right, the
highways for the supply to be distributed amongst the world.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
Now, so much of impact for us.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
Because we don't rely a whole lot on oil from Iran,
but there's other nations especially that they're obstructing, which is
the Strait of Hormuz. And then now they're also threatening
with the negotiations back and forth with you know, the
fifteen point you know plan that Trump sent them. Then
(05:00):
they're sending back and we can get into you know,
their five point I think plan back. But now they're
threatening that they're going to block I guess it was
the Red Sea, right, So it's just the supply chain,
highways of the supply going out, the speculation highways, just
a what is it, like twenty percent of oil travels
(05:24):
through that passage.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
So that's what that's the bigger and it's it's not the.
Speaker 4 (05:28):
Impact of that oil traveling through that passage that makes
it to United States, which is we're directly impacted. It's
the other nations and the speculation of well, how long
is it going to be held up for? And if
it's held up for you know, the i we talked
I think it was last week's show on the release
of supply right through the ie A International Energy Association.
(05:53):
But that supply I think was going to grant another
twenty days worth of oil. So then does that highway
you know, straight of her moves get freed up in
twenty days or now it's less than that, it's like
twelve days, or does it drag on for another month?
Speaker 3 (06:11):
Right?
Speaker 4 (06:11):
And so that's the whole speculation, just like anything else.
I mean, we see it all the time with just
earnings calls on like Nvidia or other stocks where they've
had killer earnings, they've crushed you know, top and bottom
line revenue, and Ford guidance is promising, but then the
stock goes down, right, or the stock goes up or whatever.
(06:31):
If there's some sort of news out and that that
pressure is if the per barrel you know, cost of
oil stays on one hundred dollars range or close to it,
and it just sustains at that level for a sustained
period of time, that's where it starts putting pressure on
the overall market. And you see it across all different sectors.
(06:54):
Sectors have nothing to do with oil. Eve well, well,
you're right, I mean, is it affecting the supply in
the production of especially here in the United States of
not at all the producers.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
Or increasing supply to beyond what we even need. So
it's just.
Speaker 3 (07:09):
By millions of barrels.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
It's it's ridiculous. And but we see that the pump nevertheless,
exactly exactly. But what I'm saying is, as a reaction,
don't overreact. That's what That's what I'm calling for, is that, yes,
you see this, you know, affecting the speculative side of things,
(07:31):
and therefore because of that, now everything.
Speaker 5 (07:34):
Is selling off.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
And and again it's an over reaction and and and
it's again to me, it's a buying opertion.
Speaker 4 (07:43):
You got to you got to digest and and and
and and take it.
Speaker 3 (07:47):
What's try?
Speaker 4 (07:48):
And I think I was on a call with one
of our clients this morning. He needed to raise some
capital because he's buying a house. But we got on
a side note and he was talking about everything that's
going on in the world, and I said, you know what,
I said, I go on social media once in a
while and just kind of see what's out there. I said,
but it's hard to trust the information that's out there.
(08:11):
I'll see videos and you and I had talked about it,
of the aircraft carriers that are out there, and there'll
be a video via AI obviously now, which is kind
of the negative side of AI, that they're blown up
Israel and Tel Aviv on fire, that they've just been bombed,
all these different things.
Speaker 5 (08:29):
Or the well our own media, the.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Supreme Leader's son is still alive and you know he's
in the hospital. Bet it's like, you can't try, I said,
If I just sat there and watched the news in
social media, I'd be so stressed out. I'd be planning
on how to build a bunker and go live under
the ground for a few months, right, And that's the problem.
So I just try and stick to financial news charts,
(08:54):
economic data and that's it. And if I see something
filtering through economic days and charts and what have you,
there's no narrative, right, there's no.
Speaker 2 (09:04):
Here's my advice, absolutely, do not panic. I think this is,
like I said, overblown, over sensationalized. Especially our own media,
the left wing media is rooting for America to fail.
That should tell you everything you need to know right
there that our own you know people, our own politicians
(09:29):
are hoping that this destroys you know, our country economically,
not because they have any any care about, you know,
the wealth and prosperity of the of this country. It's
just about trying to take power back in the midterms.
So you see ABC, NBC, CBS, MSN, MSNBC, CNN, CNNBC, Bloomberg, Doesn't, Yahoo, Finance,
(09:57):
on and on and on. A lot of the big
sources is doing everything they can to disrupt how good
and how strong and how capable the US our economy,
our prosperity, our productivity, everything that has been a one
hundred and eighty degree turnaround since the last administration. And
(10:22):
try to go back to you know what, we had
a country in chaos, losing all of our manufacturing to
other countries around the world, you know, being dependent on
countries like Iran for oil, well mid general and Middle
East in general, and letting them take it to us
(10:42):
and beat us up at every turn, whether it was uh,
you know, trade imbalances, energy, you know, production not being
done here open borders, hundreds you know, hundreds of millions
of people around the world taking advantage of those imbalances
(11:03):
and our dollar destruction by our own people, by our
own politicians whose agenda is to destroy, in my opinion,
the value of our economy so that again they get
back in power. And unemployment is still low.
Speaker 3 (11:22):
Well, there you go, on, there you go.
Speaker 4 (11:25):
So the data, right, so everything to just explain is
your opinion. Do we have evidence of that?
Speaker 3 (11:32):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (11:33):
There's going to be one side's going to say one thing,
the other side is going to say the other thing.
But where you're not going to get that narrative and
beared into it and get into opinions and I think
this and that and blah blah. Is unemployment, like you
just said, is low. The tuck market, yes, volatile, but
it's not completely way off from its highs. I mean,
single digits, five six percent, maybe ten percent. From its
(11:56):
highs this year. And this is what the war going
on right This is with the Fed. Fed's just meeting
recently and saying that we're going to take a pause
and inflation whereries come back. So what that tells you
is that the resilience of the US stock market and
economy is saying pretty much what you said so far,
(12:18):
not overreact. We think this is going to be a
shorter term. This is not going to be long drawn
out and become a systemic risk. And that's why you're
seeing the market be as resilient as it is.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
You're listening to the wise mindy guys, John Scamber. I'm
here with my partner to Steppe Veskani, and we were
talking about obviously the conflict in the Middle East and
how it's impacting the stock market, which is why we
talk about these things because we care about people's money,
their investments, and their overall you know, ability to retire
(12:51):
comfortably and be happy and not stressed no matter what's
going on. And that's really what I see our job as,
whether it's just talking on this radio show or you've
hired us at a client as a client is to
you know, do that heavy lifting so that you don't
have to and I mean you the client don't have
(13:13):
to because.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
We do this. We do all the stress, we do.
Speaker 5 (13:16):
The worry, we go bald worrying for you know.
Speaker 4 (13:19):
I just thinking what we should do is just set
up our office more like a spa, you know, when
you go in to get it, like massage, it's like
the lights are a little bit more dimmed. They have
some soothing, really soothing, and can't have some they have
some fragrant aromatic like lavender and some things that really
just you know, do you stress, you and calming, and
that's what we should do here, and.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
That's what we're calling for, right, I mean again, like
like you said, the facts, the data, yes, a lot
of this as far as you know, whether or not
you believe, you know this is one side versus the other,
which I one hundred percent believe. And I don't think
that's opinion at all, because you see it in how
you know our institutions and what they support, and how
(14:02):
our politicians vote, and what the news is on a
particular a slant from one side of the aisle and
how it is on the other side. So you know,
those those things are more than opinion. But at the
end of the day, like Joseppi said, the market is
only you know, single digits off of its all time highs,
(14:25):
and in fact, some of some of ouch.
Speaker 4 (14:29):
What's the all time highs is very high.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
I saw a study that if we.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
Have fifty thousand, and now it's you know forty what
is it forty five thousand ish?
Speaker 4 (14:39):
Well, I saw a study that if we have a
great depression like reaction, Let's say this all blows up
and it causes recession or depression and we have a
reaction back like when we had the Great Depression, that
draw down in the stock market would bring us back
to not even to the lows of COVID twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
I mean, it's all about just we get spoiled, right,
we have short term memory issues. You know, if you're
not making new highs all the time, then then then
with that euphoria. That's one side, fear is greater than
the four right, So on the other side, it's like,
oh my god, that you know, the sky is falling
(15:25):
and the dow you know, is in the forty six
thousands roughly, and you know, it's all time record high
was fifty thousand, just a couple of months ago. So
you're talking, it's off by about four thousand points, which
is eight percent, still single digits. You know, the nasdaqs
at twenty one thousand roughly, and it's all time high
(15:49):
is twenty four thousand, so again off by about three thousand,
which is you know, what is that seven percent roughly,
so again still single digits. And the Nasdaq's the worst,
you know, of the big three, the Dow, the Nasdaq,
and the S and.
Speaker 5 (16:07):
P five hundred.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
The S and P five hundred, you know, you're looking
at seven thousand and two as as the old time high,
and it's at call it sixty five hundred, depending on
you know, how we open up on Monday.
Speaker 5 (16:26):
So most of them are right.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
In line with about seven eight percent at the worst,
which is single digits.
Speaker 3 (16:34):
Well, this is the high, so it's off of the
all time high.
Speaker 4 (16:37):
Yeah, it's the peak to the trough, and the typical
average peak to trough, meaning that in the calendar year,
let's say the market stock market, whether it's S and
P five hundred or NASDAK or whatever it is that
you follow, hit a high in February and then something
happened with the market or the world and everything sold
(16:59):
off and it's absolutely low in June, and then it
started rallying back up and finished the year. Let's say
positive that measurement from the peak in February to the
very low the valley in June, that's the maximum draw
down and the typical The typical draw down in a
given year when you look at averages is about fourteen percent.
(17:22):
So we haven't even had the typical draw down in
an average year at this point. But when you just
focus on the news and everything that's going on and
what could be and what if this happens, and what
if this escalates and what if that? You start worrying
and it's almost like we dropped twenty five percent, and yeah,
short term memory April last year, it's been less than
(17:45):
a year, right that we had a situation where markets
dropped twenty percent when we had the Great Liberation Day,
right and all the tariff policies went out. So is
this going to be something similar to that where Trump
comes out hard, you know, with negotiation tactics and says
(18:07):
we're going to do this, we hit Iran hard, We're
going to do that. Well, then maybe now there's now
it's being digested a little bit. There's more negotiation, there's
some delays to some of these threats of if you
don't do this, then we're going to blow that up,
and so on and so forth. Now he's got, from
what I heard, a meeting with Jijing ping to see
if they can figure something out to de escalate.
Speaker 3 (18:30):
So I think my opinion is we'll.
Speaker 4 (18:34):
Probably see somewhat similar to what we experienced in the tariffs.
He came out hard, put it out there and just went,
you know, hi, It's just like you go to a
car dealer and you say, hey, I want to buy
this fifty thousand dollars car out I'm going to give
you thirty five grand.
Speaker 2 (18:49):
I don't know why they're not realizing meaning when I
say there, I mean the United States. It's pretty simple.
We should fully block the straight of horror moves, and
you're here that here first. That's my opinion. Let me
tell you why, because Russia and Iran rely on Iran.
(19:09):
Russia and China rely on Iran for a massive chunk
of their energy needs, and they're still getting their tankers
freely flowing in and out of the strait of horror moves.
You block the straight of horror moves completely. Now all
(19:29):
of a sudden, watch how quickly this gets de escalated,
because now China all of a sudden would be going Iran.
Speaker 3 (19:39):
You need to China and Russia putting pressure in ir.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
Right exactly, And there's no they don't care because there's
unless Trump is going to Jijingping and doing something like that,
or going to Jijingping and putin and going uh okay,
maybe it's not block it for you know other or worse,
let's take out that Kanga. I think it's Kanga Island
(20:06):
where the main.
Speaker 4 (20:08):
Is that the isn't that the baby kangaroo like.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Well, somebody will well, I'm sure is going to email
us or call us or what to say. Oh no, No,
it's the island where it's their main where they fill
up all the tankers and and a huge refinery of Iran,
and and it's it's the main artery at the you know,
(20:36):
the top of the straight horse moves right there, and
you take that out and then it does the same thing. Now,
all of a sudden, China and Russia aren't getting any
oil out of out of the Middle East either, and
so you know that that would change everything directly. But
as long as you have the two countries that get
(21:00):
you know, a fourth or fifth of their oil from.
Speaker 3 (21:06):
China.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
Yeah, I mean, so you want you want to end
this even early and you want to cut off the
stickett to all money too. I ran to, you know,
hobble along trying to you know, here's trying to block
the So here's the straight still just just block block
it all together.
Speaker 5 (21:27):
Here's just the opposite it. It won't hurt us.
Speaker 2 (21:30):
In fact, now people will be coming to the US
and Venezuela, Canada's other countries even more.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
I think that's why we're doing this actually, right, that's
just my opinion.
Speaker 4 (21:42):
So but on the other side, being playing devil's advocate, and.
Speaker 5 (21:46):
I know you live when I do this is when
your liberal side comes out.
Speaker 3 (21:50):
No, it's just playing devil's advocate. There's two there's two
sides to everything. Right.
Speaker 4 (21:54):
If we're going in there and just taking over this
and taking over that, and then just controlling this and
controlling that of international waters, then what what what is
that put out there for other big nations to later
at some point in time do the very same thing.
Right with the international water we need that impacts our.
Speaker 5 (22:14):
Trade, What do we need what do we need from
other countries?
Speaker 4 (22:17):
Well, specifically with trade or hermus not as much as
other nations, but there are other passageways where we do
need that, right and their internet. They're also claimed as
international water, like the South China Sea, right, and there's
been and there's been issues without well they're making islands
out there anywhere, and there's been and there's been some interference.
So now if all of a sudden they level up
(22:40):
and then they start saying, well, okay, you guys blocked
it over there, impacted us and then tried to do
some negotianswers, We're going to do it with your trade
paths international waters. So that's the only problem that I
see with it. I understand your point to get like.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
A quick resolveau listen as the greatest country in the world,
who for the last you know, fifty years plus has
been offshoring, you know, things, to be reliant on all
these other adversarial countries. Yeah, this is exactly what we need.
(23:12):
In my opinion, that's our own fault, right, it is
our own fault.
Speaker 4 (23:15):
We don't need We should have the whole time just
connected ourselves with allied countries or neutral countries to be that,
but to have our manufacturing and our pharma and stuff
like we realized in COVID, And that really stems from
these twisted leaders and politicians that line their pockets that
(23:35):
we don't see that go through shell companies and so
and so forth that make.
Speaker 2 (23:38):
Me thesellions of dollars that allow.
Speaker 4 (23:41):
These policies and laws and all these different direction trades
and manufacturing here and there with adversarial countries, and now
we're in the predicament that we're in.
Speaker 5 (23:49):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (23:49):
So again in my long view, humble opinion, in my
humble long view opinion, this this just puts more pressure
on us to realize that the lane we're in, the
way we're traveling is the right way. This again helps,
(24:12):
you know, reassure us that this is what needed to happen,
This is the right approach. This will again stimulate us
doing more things at home for ourselves and protecting ourselves
at home and our way of life, because again, it
just proves more and more and more how unreliable other
(24:37):
countries are and actually how adversarial they are, and.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
The well it's been used as leverage, right, right.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
If we can block giving money to any of these
countries around the world, and now just start taking care
of our own. Not only would the dollar go up
in value, you know, our debt and deficit we could
start paying off and balancing our budget puts. Unemployment would
reach the lowest levels in the in the history of measuring,
(25:08):
you know from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment would
go there would be like back in the you know,
the the the Roosevelt. You know, a chicken in every pot,
you know. And and so this in a way is
a good thing because it's making us realize and politicians
(25:29):
will start running on, Hey, we've got to protect the homeland,
protect our jobs, protect our infrastructure, protect our way of life.
And this is just another thing that proves that that's
the right path to be on. And it will make
everybody more prosperous. The more stuff we bring back to
our own shores, the better off will make sense. And
(25:52):
again you're listening to the wise buddy guys, John Scambray
into Septive Scotty. When we'll come back, we'll talk about
again how it's not time to panic and how this
may be a great time to take advantage of some
of the dips and the big names, and how patriotic
we are.
Speaker 5 (26:09):
I am are firm.
Speaker 2 (26:11):
Especially passionate about, you know, helping our clients, you know,
really take advantage of all the decades they put into
saving and accumulating and wanting to you know, have a
good of as good of a life as you could
have for their families and their kids. And ultimately, that's
(26:32):
what we feel our job is because without your wealth,
without you know, your your hard earned savings and all
the work you put into it, you know, we're here
to help defend that. And so that's what I feel
our job really is. And the way we do that
and create is by having a plan, a written plan,
(26:55):
having goals and objectives, your goals and objectives put in
to writing so that we can manage you know, your
the portion of your financial lives that we manage, that
we can manage to that plan. And when you have
a plan and you have goals and objectives, it makes
our job easier to help you not make mistakes. And
(27:17):
that's what I'm really worried about, and that's what I'm
fired up about, and that's why I get off on
these tangents about the news. And you know, some of
these things and the adversaries that we now have and
and have known for a while but weren't doing anything
about it. And hopefully the long game for us is
even greater wealth and prosperity and better uh you know,
(27:40):
uh employment numbers and being able to lower taxes and
so on and so forth.
Speaker 3 (27:46):
And so far, taxes have been lowered, taxes have been lowered.
People who are doing people.
Speaker 4 (27:51):
Who are doing taxes for last year should be noticing
a little bit of a bump up. Yeah, Unemployment is
still low. It's higher than what it was, but still
in a great zone right now.
Speaker 2 (28:02):
And interest rates are out of control. You know, early
on you mentioned tariffs and the and the what we
saw at the beginning of last year where we had
a major UH crash and the values of the indices
and and the value overall in the stock market. But
no inflation came. No out of control inflation came from
(28:23):
from tariffs.
Speaker 3 (28:24):
Right now, now we're.
Speaker 2 (28:26):
Going to see a little bit of energy inflation right
obviously with gas prices. But you know what it depends on.
It depends more so in the state of California than
in the rest of the nations.
Speaker 3 (28:37):
California has had perpetual gas.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
It's not going to impact the nation as a whole
as much as it's going to impact Californians. All the
more reason why to either come to our seminar coming
up that I haven't mentioned and I will in California,
or call us for a no obligation consultation because we're
not panicking. We are the defenders of your retirement and
your investments and your wealth. And if you've been following
(29:06):
us or if you're a client of us, you aren't panicking.
And in fact, you know you're you're wondering what we're
buying and what we're doing, and looking at your accounts
and each day and seeing that, uh, you know, we're
not experience. It's not as what you would think we
were experience watching on the news. So call us at
(29:27):
nine six ninety six seven thirty five hundred to come
in for a no obligation consultation. We'll do a free
retirement plan analysis for you. If you don't have a
plan or have it done a plan in a long time,
We're going to do one absolutely no obligation and free
of free of charge, so that you can decide if
(29:47):
the planning process and the way we manage and actively
managed money is the right way for you again called
nine one six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. The
other opportunity, uh, if you're listening, is to join us
for our seminar in Walnut Creek at Diablo Hills Golf
Course from six to seven thirty pm on April twenty ninth,
(30:12):
which is a Wednesday again at Diablo Hills Golf Course
from six to seven thirty pm on Wednesday, April twenty ninth.
Call to register. We're already just started, you know, talking
about that and putting that out there that we're going
to have that, and it is so timely to make
sure that you know, you've got the best plan of
(30:35):
action going forward, the best roadmap, you know, the best
people at your side working for you to get you
through you know, these turbulent financial times called nine one
six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. I was just
looking at, you know, the ten year treasury and it
(30:56):
hasn't broken through four point five. It's flirted with four
point five a little bit. And that that four point
five is kind of a barometer of interest rates starting
to really impact you know, access to capital because people
quite frankly, will maybe kind of consider well, when it
(31:18):
gets to five percent, I was just gonna say, it's
really the five. But once you break the four point five,
then it's like, oh god, are we going to hit five?
Speaker 3 (31:26):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (31:27):
Four and a quarter I mean some of the commonists
that I follow, you know, four and a quarter to
four point seventy five right now is a normal range,
you'd call it, you know, once you start going beyond that,
and especially when you get to five percent, and what
we're talking about if you're saying, like what are you
interest rate of? What is the ten year treasury bond?
The US Treasury bond, And there's two years, five years,
(31:50):
ten that goes all the way to thirty, but the
ten year Treasury bond is really what's used as a
barometer to see where interest rates are at. And you know,
is the bond market signaling inflation or is it signaling
a calming environment? And right now it's been spiking up,
(32:11):
which is the worry for some inflation.
Speaker 3 (32:13):
And how does that directly impact you?
Speaker 4 (32:15):
Well, if you're going out there and trying to get
a mortgage or refinancing a house, those interest rates have
gone up, you know, before they dipped below six percent
and now they're approaching from what I've seen last was
around six point four percent for a thirty year mortgage.
That also impacts you if you're getting any other loans
out there, like a car loan or so on and
so forth. So that's how it really impacts you, on
(32:36):
top of the energy increase on you know, going to
the gas pump, especially here in California. But we're in
a normal range, so there's no red flag or signal
when we're saying, hey, interest rates are going up or
the ten year Treasury is going.
Speaker 3 (32:51):
Up, not at this point.
Speaker 4 (32:53):
And so far the stock market that we talked about
being not so off their all time highs, and know
long term bullish, we're not in a bear market or
worried about any type of systemic risk. Really, the only
thing I think we're watching right now that what I'm
concerned with to see if it becomes a bigger problem
(33:13):
as a private credit market that has shown some financial cracks. Now,
if the oil stays at a higher level, puts more
pressures on the market, put some pressure on inflation, and
some of the upcoming inflation data, and this sustains at
a longer period of time or than the FEDS or
can continue to have to pause and not cut rates
(33:35):
any further, but then also put some pressure and interest
rates go up and put some pressure on private credit markets.
That's where it can cause some more volatility, even outside
this Iran deal. But so far, we're not seeing any
major red flags, right, especially not to the point where
(33:55):
some of these news and media that are putting out
there of like, oh no, well, this is what's going on,
and this is what could happen, and if this doesn't happen,
and that could happen, and so on and so forth,
it's not We don't see any major red flags in
that area.
Speaker 3 (34:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (34:10):
The good news is is that we really liked fixed income,
you know, over the last couple of years, especially when
when interest rates went up, because when interest rates go up,
as long as you don't have a lot of debt,
and most of our retired clients have no debt, then
then it's an investment opportunity, right because bond devices are down.
(34:32):
Typically when interest rates go up and you're getting things
at par or at a discount, and we're still buying bonds.
We still like that because C bonds are in the
mid mid and even seeing some in the high fives.
Speaker 4 (34:45):
Yeah, And to put it, to put it plainly in
Layman's terms, is if you're retired and you're retired in
your in your savior and you're living on a fixed
income at this point in time where you've saved what
you saved and you're not accumulating anymore, interest rates are high.
Speaker 3 (34:59):
You can go walk.
Speaker 4 (34:59):
Into right now and get a CD or promo savings account.
You see them, even American Express and Poppy Bank and
some man the smaller banks are giving four plus percent
interest on a high yield savings and so so we
haven't had that, I mean recently, it's been here for
the past couple of years, but prior to twenty twenty
two when inflation really it was went through the roof. Yeah,
(35:23):
it was a fraction of a percent, and so it's
been a long time since we've seen that.
Speaker 5 (35:27):
So CD was a half a one percent for a year.
Speaker 4 (35:30):
Right, So people who have accumulated and savers and retired
and people are on fixed income, that's great. And so
that translates not only on high yield savings CDs, but
also like John was saying, fixed income, which are bonds,
which are the same thing, which then you get even
higher interest rate that you can lock in because when
you're buying individual bonds, then you have actual maturity dates,
(35:53):
so it's spelled out. You know how much money you
put in, you know how much interest you're getting because
it's basically a contract. Let's say you get a AP
Morgan bond or Wells Fargo bond or anything out there
that says we're paying five percent in interest. They've collected
your money you now have, they have your money in return,
they're giving you five percent every year. Now, it doesn't
matter what the market's doing or interest rate environment, whether
(36:15):
it's going up or down, you're getting five percent every
year on that money that you gave them. And then
when it matures, you get principal back and you already
know that's going to be and everything is spelled out.
Speaker 3 (36:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (36:25):
My advice, especially with rates still being decent from an
investment perspective and a price perspective, is that you know,
focus on what things pay as far as what cash
flow you'll get, you know, on the time off the
top from the investment, focus on dividends, focus on interest rates,
(36:47):
don't focus so much on trying to you know, beat
the one of the indexes winning stock be a stock picker,
because that's where you know, right now, you're really worried.
Because if the only way that you're making money is that, Okay,
I paid you know, a certain price for a particular investment,
(37:09):
and I'm going to sell it when it hits a
higher price, and then that's the only return on investment
I get from that.
Speaker 5 (37:17):
That's tough to do.
Speaker 2 (37:19):
Especially in the volatility of the last couple of years,
where yeah, unless you've got you know, really a strong
gut right to buy when things are down and then
rebalance and sell when things are up, and most people don't,
you know, they buy high and sell low.
Speaker 4 (37:40):
Me I mean investing without having emotion getting exactly So.
Speaker 2 (37:46):
One of the things that I highly recommend is that
when you are working with an advisor, hopefully they have
a plan in place for you, and hopefully you have
good goals and objectives and a realistic under standing of
what you need to make versus you know, just hearing that,
oh the S and P went up, you know, twenty
(38:06):
percent last year, and god, I want to make twenty percent.
Speaker 5 (38:10):
Beat that.
Speaker 2 (38:11):
If you know that you only need a six or
seven percent return each year to have a lifelong income
in retirement on you know, the assets that you've you know,
accumulated and the other resources that you have, which might
be income from rental properties or of course social security
as well as I might have a pension to so
(38:35):
on and so forth. But once you know that, hey,
based on the five hundred thousand, the million, the two million,
the five million, whatever you have, if you only need
you know, a four or five six, seven percent return,
then why risk going for a twenty percent return and
only getting that return if you buy your something was
(38:57):
bought at one price and you need to sell it
at a higher price to get that return on your money,
focus on dividends and interest and what investments pay you
right now, That's that's my two cents. If you would
like to come in for a no obligation consultation called
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred, if
(39:18):
you want to see us live and see how we
are addressing and helping our clients address and deal with
volatility and staying you know, on track, on track, that's
the word I was looking for. Come to our workshop,
our workshop for retirees. So we're assuming you're retired or
(39:40):
about to retire. If you register and you have investments
and means that you're concerned about, that's who would sign
up and attend. It's in Walnut Creek. We are listened
to in the Bay area all the way pretty much
over to Reno and down to the Central Valley, so
(40:00):
we do have offices potentially near you in those areas.
But come to our Walnut Creek seminar on April twenty
ninth from six to seven thirty pm. That's a Wednesday,
called nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
At that seminar, we'll show you more specifically strategies that
(40:25):
we're employing, how they've worked, how we think they're going
to work, types of investments that are are very timely
and helpful to most of our clients and could be
helpful to you as well to reaching your goals with
the least amount of risk that you possibly could take based.
Speaker 5 (40:45):
On those goals.
Speaker 2 (40:47):
Again called nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
You can also go to our website to contact us
or to just get more information about us. Our disclosures
are at the bottom of the page, but there's also
regular videos that we put out on our website and
social media. You can watch the show on our YouTube
(41:08):
channel Wise Money Guys, or just search for our names
or search for Wise Money Guys and when you see
the one that has our names, you'll see this show
on YouTube as well. But lots of resources. We're willing
to give lots of information and advice specifically to you
if you come in and sit down for a no
(41:29):
obligation consultation. As I said already, we'll even do a
free retirement plan that you can that we can put
in writing for you, no obligation whatsoever. And if you
like that conversation and think we're the right fit, well,
then decide to hire us. If not, no pressure whatsoever.
Again called nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
Speaker 4 (41:51):
So we've talked quite a bit, especially on the Iran
situation and the pressures that it's putting on the market.
You know how the media is portraying it, the economy.
Where do we go from here? There's still uncertainty, is
the bottom line. Nobody's got a crystal ball.
Speaker 5 (42:09):
There lots of volatility.
Speaker 4 (42:11):
Yeah, nobody has a crystal ball on how this is
all going to unfold. I think you know this is
probably taking longer than anticipated on Trump's end, hopefully, but
you hopefully we'll find.
Speaker 2 (42:23):
The absurdness of that. A major escalation between multiple countries,
and the expectation is that it was only going to
be a few days, maybe a week or two.
Speaker 4 (42:37):
There's no way absurd Well, especially since you know, the
whole kind of premise was for forty seven years Iran
has been against us, and so then we're going to
win against the world, and we're gonna and we're going
to resolve.
Speaker 3 (42:49):
It in two weeks. No, it's not going to happen.
Speaker 4 (42:50):
So the big thing is figuring out these pathways, these
highways right straight off hor Moose and what have you
that's impacting impacting oil. Well, all that being said, you
know where markets are right now, how they have been
reacting to all of this news and data that's been
coming in has been very resilient. Our economy, our stock
(43:12):
market in the US has employment are yeah, is all
still intact, all showing resilience, which is a good sign
for the US markets. You know, we're seeing signs both
on Trump and potentially maybe in other nations of negotiations
or even just open to talking. So that means that
(43:32):
there's at least pathways of finding some de escalation and
all this.
Speaker 2 (43:36):
Well, pathways just real quickly, new pathways to getting oil
out of the Middle East are going to be one
of the results of this that we're you're already seeing
you know, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations going, oh,
we're going to put more through our pipelines and other
ways to distribute our energy versus being reliant on the
(43:59):
ease of just going through the straight So right, that's
a positive thing that's going to come out of this
as well.
Speaker 4 (44:05):
Yeah, and hopefully again sooner rather than later. But you know,
the structural how the market in the economy is set
up structurally is still bullish, meaning still pointing.
Speaker 3 (44:18):
Positive not negative.
Speaker 4 (44:20):
I think these geopolitical like most geopolitical events, like we've
seen with Russia and Ukraine before Russian Crimea and other
geopolitical events have taken place, is that it ends up
being a bump in the road rather than.
Speaker 3 (44:34):
A total crash.
Speaker 4 (44:35):
And so we think ultimately that's what will happen. And
so how long is this bump in the road going
to take place? Is it going to be another couple
of months or so? Who knows, but you want to
pay attention to you know, what are you looking for?
Piece talks, the FED response, and the signals that the
Federal Reserve puts out there inflation data, right, those are
going to be the important parts.
Speaker 2 (44:56):
More importantly, you've been listening to the wise many guys, Johns,
i'mbry Into Seppi Vescani, please give us a call at
nine one six nine sixty seven thirty five hundred to
arrange that no obligation consultation or to register for our
April twenty ninth seminar for retirees or people about to
retire in Walnut Creek. I hope you have enjoyed listening
(45:17):
to the show. Come back and listen to us next weekend.
Have a wonderful Saturday.
Speaker 3 (45:21):
Bye all, have a great weekends.
The Wise Money Guys Radio show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management, SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight for disclosures and more information, and
visit our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys radio Show.
I'm your co host John Scambray. I'm here with my
partner Jaseethe Visconti, and we are certified portfolio managers and
longtime investment advisors that specialize in helping people who are retired,
are about to retire and manage their money. As always,
if you like the show and want to get together
for a no obligation consultation or have questions of any kind,
(00:35):
you can give us a call at nine one six
ninety six seven thirty five hundred, or you can visit
our website Wisemoneyguys dot com for more information and important disclosures.
This show is sponsored by One Source Wealth Management. We
are a registered investment advisory firm licensed three to one
nine zero seven eight. Our main office is out of
(00:56):
Grant Bay, California, but we also have office office locations
that could be near you, either in the Bay area
or the Tahoe Reno area as well, so we've got
a pretty big agenda today. Obviously, there's a lot that
has been happening, whether it's the conflict in the Middle East.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
Yeah, still uncertainty out there.
Speaker 4 (01:19):
Nothing, nothing's been resolved, and we're just kind of a
wait and see, and markets are in that same predicament, right,
wait and see. What's going on with with the war,
especially oil. There's been some fluctuation with gold. We'll touch
on how the stock market's been reacting, what the stock
(01:40):
market might be telling us as far as what the
stock market thinks is going to be going on with
the war. Is there going to be long term is
it going to be short term? Also bonds, which is
affecting interest rates, so bond yields or interest rates of bonds,
the tenure treasury especially we've talked plenty about in previous
shows and how that's moving, borrowing costs up like mortgages
(02:04):
and car loans and so on and so forth, and
touch on.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
All of it.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
Yeah, hopefully after listening to this show today we will
instill some calm. I think overall, Yes, there's all these
different things going on, but no need to panic in
my opinion. But we'll we'll talk more specifically about why
you shouldn't panic and more importantly what to do in
(02:32):
what we're doing as far as in in reaction to
all the different things that that you just mentioned. But
let's get started, you know, And it just drives me crazy.
I think the sensationalism.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
You take a car and to get repaired.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Yeah, so we don't we don't want to get you
fired up after what you experienced a Mortga dealership. Oh
it's fine morning, But but where I was going is
that I think that the reaction is an overreaction.
Speaker 5 (03:04):
The yes, the oil.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Reactioning wildly, clearly after a month of the you know,
the conflict uh in the Middle East with Iran. Clearly
it's done nothing to impact our supply of it. It
really hasn't done anything to impact world supply. Russia and
(03:30):
China are still unfortunately getting their oil delivered through the
straight of horror moves. Saudi Arabia and other big OPEC
countries are delivering their oil through pipelines and other means.
The US, of course, is is net exporter of natural
gas and and and barely imports any oil. I mean,
(03:54):
we have more oil than we even know what to
do with, and we've ramped up our production, don't forget.
We've also you know, now have unfettered access to Venezuelan oil.
And so it's really just not Cuba though, Well that's
the whole point. Cuba, and I think the regime is
going to fall there. I think communism is going to fall,
(04:18):
just like it did, you know during the Reagan years
in eastern Germany, and I think it's going to fall
in Cuba.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (04:27):
The big thing is just the the freeways, right, the
highways for the supply to be distributed amongst the world.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
Now, so much of impact for us.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
Because we don't rely a whole lot on oil from Iran,
but there's other nations especially that they're obstructing, which is
the Strait of Hormuz. And then now they're also threatening
with the negotiations back and forth with you know, the
fifteen point you know plan that Trump sent them. Then
(05:00):
they're sending back and we can get into you know,
their five point I think plan back. But now they're
threatening that they're going to block I guess it was
the Red Sea, right, So it's just the supply chain,
highways of the supply going out, the speculation highways, just
a what is it, like twenty percent of oil travels
(05:24):
through that passage.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
So that's what that's the bigger and it's it's not the.
Speaker 4 (05:28):
Impact of that oil traveling through that passage that makes
it to United States, which is we're directly impacted. It's
the other nations and the speculation of well, how long
is it going to be held up for? And if
it's held up for you know, the i we talked
I think it was last week's show on the release
of supply right through the ie A International Energy Association.
(05:53):
But that supply I think was going to grant another
twenty days worth of oil. So then does that highway
you know, straight of her moves get freed up in
twenty days or now it's less than that, it's like
twelve days, or does it drag on for another month?
Speaker 3 (06:11):
Right?
Speaker 4 (06:11):
And so that's the whole speculation, just like anything else.
I mean, we see it all the time with just
earnings calls on like Nvidia or other stocks where they've
had killer earnings, they've crushed you know, top and bottom
line revenue, and Ford guidance is promising, but then the
stock goes down, right, or the stock goes up or whatever.
(06:31):
If there's some sort of news out and that that
pressure is if the per barrel you know, cost of
oil stays on one hundred dollars range or close to it,
and it just sustains at that level for a sustained
period of time, that's where it starts putting pressure on
the overall market. And you see it across all different sectors.
(06:54):
Sectors have nothing to do with oil. Eve well, well,
you're right, I mean, is it affecting the supply in
the production of especially here in the United States of
not at all the producers.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
Or increasing supply to beyond what we even need. So
it's just.
Speaker 3 (07:09):
By millions of barrels.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
It's it's ridiculous. And but we see that the pump nevertheless,
exactly exactly. But what I'm saying is, as a reaction,
don't overreact. That's what That's what I'm calling for, is that, yes,
you see this, you know, affecting the speculative side of things,
(07:31):
and therefore because of that, now everything.
Speaker 5 (07:34):
Is selling off.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
And and again it's an over reaction and and and
it's again to me, it's a buying opertion.
Speaker 4 (07:43):
You got to you got to digest and and and
and and take it.
Speaker 3 (07:47):
What's try?
Speaker 4 (07:48):
And I think I was on a call with one
of our clients this morning. He needed to raise some
capital because he's buying a house. But we got on
a side note and he was talking about everything that's
going on in the world, and I said, you know what,
I said, I go on social media once in a
while and just kind of see what's out there. I said,
but it's hard to trust the information that's out there.
(08:11):
I'll see videos and you and I had talked about it,
of the aircraft carriers that are out there, and there'll
be a video via AI obviously now, which is kind
of the negative side of AI, that they're blown up
Israel and Tel Aviv on fire, that they've just been bombed,
all these different things.
Speaker 5 (08:29):
Or the well our own media, the.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Supreme Leader's son is still alive and you know he's
in the hospital. Bet it's like, you can't try, I said,
If I just sat there and watched the news in
social media, I'd be so stressed out. I'd be planning
on how to build a bunker and go live under
the ground for a few months, right, And that's the problem.
So I just try and stick to financial news charts,
(08:54):
economic data and that's it. And if I see something
filtering through economic days and charts and what have you,
there's no narrative, right, there's no.
Speaker 2 (09:04):
Here's my advice, absolutely, do not panic. I think this is,
like I said, overblown, over sensationalized. Especially our own media,
the left wing media is rooting for America to fail.
That should tell you everything you need to know right
there that our own you know people, our own politicians
(09:29):
are hoping that this destroys you know, our country economically,
not because they have any any care about, you know,
the wealth and prosperity of the of this country. It's
just about trying to take power back in the midterms.
So you see ABC, NBC, CBS, MSN, MSNBC, CNN, CNNBC, Bloomberg, Doesn't, Yahoo, Finance,
(09:57):
on and on and on. A lot of the big
sources is doing everything they can to disrupt how good
and how strong and how capable the US our economy,
our prosperity, our productivity, everything that has been a one
hundred and eighty degree turnaround since the last administration. And
(10:22):
try to go back to you know what, we had
a country in chaos, losing all of our manufacturing to
other countries around the world, you know, being dependent on
countries like Iran for oil, well mid general and Middle
East in general, and letting them take it to us
(10:42):
and beat us up at every turn, whether it was uh,
you know, trade imbalances, energy, you know, production not being
done here open borders, hundreds you know, hundreds of millions
of people around the world taking advantage of those imbalances
(11:03):
and our dollar destruction by our own people, by our
own politicians whose agenda is to destroy, in my opinion,
the value of our economy so that again they get
back in power. And unemployment is still low.
Speaker 3 (11:22):
Well, there you go, on, there you go.
Speaker 4 (11:25):
So the data, right, so everything to just explain is
your opinion. Do we have evidence of that?
Speaker 3 (11:32):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (11:33):
There's going to be one side's going to say one thing,
the other side is going to say the other thing.
But where you're not going to get that narrative and
beared into it and get into opinions and I think
this and that and blah blah. Is unemployment, like you
just said, is low. The tuck market, yes, volatile, but
it's not completely way off from its highs. I mean,
single digits, five six percent, maybe ten percent. From its
(11:56):
highs this year. And this is what the war going
on right This is with the Fed. Fed's just meeting
recently and saying that we're going to take a pause
and inflation whereries come back. So what that tells you
is that the resilience of the US stock market and
economy is saying pretty much what you said so far,
(12:18):
not overreact. We think this is going to be a
shorter term. This is not going to be long drawn
out and become a systemic risk. And that's why you're
seeing the market be as resilient as it is.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
You're listening to the wise mindy guys, John Scamber. I'm
here with my partner to Steppe Veskani, and we were
talking about obviously the conflict in the Middle East and
how it's impacting the stock market, which is why we
talk about these things because we care about people's money,
their investments, and their overall you know, ability to retire
(12:51):
comfortably and be happy and not stressed no matter what's
going on. And that's really what I see our job as,
whether it's just talking on this radio show or you've
hired us at a client as a client is to
you know, do that heavy lifting so that you don't
have to and I mean you the client don't have
(13:13):
to because.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
We do this. We do all the stress, we do.
Speaker 5 (13:16):
The worry, we go bald worrying for you know.
Speaker 4 (13:19):
I just thinking what we should do is just set
up our office more like a spa, you know, when
you go in to get it, like massage, it's like
the lights are a little bit more dimmed. They have
some soothing, really soothing, and can't have some they have
some fragrant aromatic like lavender and some things that really
just you know, do you stress, you and calming, and
that's what we should do here, and.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
That's what we're calling for, right, I mean again, like
like you said, the facts, the data, yes, a lot
of this as far as you know, whether or not
you believe, you know this is one side versus the other,
which I one hundred percent believe. And I don't think
that's opinion at all, because you see it in how
you know our institutions and what they support, and how
(14:02):
our politicians vote, and what the news is on a
particular a slant from one side of the aisle and
how it is on the other side. So you know,
those those things are more than opinion. But at the
end of the day, like Joseppi said, the market is
only you know, single digits off of its all time highs,
(14:25):
and in fact, some of some of ouch.
Speaker 4 (14:29):
What's the all time highs is very high.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
I saw a study that if we.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
Have fifty thousand, and now it's you know forty what
is it forty five thousand ish?
Speaker 4 (14:39):
Well, I saw a study that if we have a
great depression like reaction, Let's say this all blows up
and it causes recession or depression and we have a
reaction back like when we had the Great Depression, that
draw down in the stock market would bring us back
to not even to the lows of COVID twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
I mean, it's all about just we get spoiled, right,
we have short term memory issues. You know, if you're
not making new highs all the time, then then then
with that euphoria. That's one side, fear is greater than
the four right, So on the other side, it's like,
oh my god, that you know, the sky is falling
(15:25):
and the dow you know, is in the forty six
thousands roughly, and you know, it's all time record high
was fifty thousand, just a couple of months ago. So
you're talking, it's off by about four thousand points, which
is eight percent, still single digits. You know, the nasdaqs
at twenty one thousand roughly, and it's all time high
(15:49):
is twenty four thousand, so again off by about three thousand,
which is you know, what is that seven percent roughly,
so again still single digits. And the Nasdaq's the worst,
you know, of the big three, the Dow, the Nasdaq,
and the S and.
Speaker 5 (16:07):
P five hundred.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
The S and P five hundred, you know, you're looking
at seven thousand and two as as the old time high,
and it's at call it sixty five hundred, depending on
you know, how we open up on Monday.
Speaker 5 (16:26):
So most of them are right.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
In line with about seven eight percent at the worst,
which is single digits.
Speaker 3 (16:34):
Well, this is the high, so it's off of the
all time high.
Speaker 4 (16:37):
Yeah, it's the peak to the trough, and the typical
average peak to trough, meaning that in the calendar year,
let's say the market stock market, whether it's S and
P five hundred or NASDAK or whatever it is that
you follow, hit a high in February and then something
happened with the market or the world and everything sold
(16:59):
off and it's absolutely low in June, and then it
started rallying back up and finished the year. Let's say
positive that measurement from the peak in February to the
very low the valley in June, that's the maximum draw
down and the typical The typical draw down in a
given year when you look at averages is about fourteen percent.
(17:22):
So we haven't even had the typical draw down in
an average year at this point. But when you just
focus on the news and everything that's going on and
what could be and what if this happens, and what
if this escalates and what if that? You start worrying
and it's almost like we dropped twenty five percent, and yeah,
short term memory April last year, it's been less than
(17:45):
a year, right that we had a situation where markets
dropped twenty percent when we had the Great Liberation Day,
right and all the tariff policies went out. So is
this going to be something similar to that where Trump
comes out hard, you know, with negotiation tactics and says
(18:07):
we're going to do this, we hit Iran hard, We're
going to do that. Well, then maybe now there's now
it's being digested a little bit. There's more negotiation, there's
some delays to some of these threats of if you
don't do this, then we're going to blow that up,
and so on and so forth. Now he's got, from
what I heard, a meeting with Jijing ping to see
if they can figure something out to de escalate.
Speaker 3 (18:30):
So I think my opinion is we'll.
Speaker 4 (18:34):
Probably see somewhat similar to what we experienced in the tariffs.
He came out hard, put it out there and just went,
you know, hi, It's just like you go to a
car dealer and you say, hey, I want to buy
this fifty thousand dollars car out I'm going to give
you thirty five grand.
Speaker 2 (18:49):
I don't know why they're not realizing meaning when I
say there, I mean the United States. It's pretty simple.
We should fully block the straight of horror moves, and
you're here that here first. That's my opinion. Let me
tell you why, because Russia and Iran rely on Iran.
(19:09):
Russia and China rely on Iran for a massive chunk
of their energy needs, and they're still getting their tankers
freely flowing in and out of the strait of horror moves.
You block the straight of horror moves completely. Now all
(19:29):
of a sudden, watch how quickly this gets de escalated,
because now China all of a sudden would be going Iran.
Speaker 3 (19:39):
You need to China and Russia putting pressure in ir.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
Right exactly, And there's no they don't care because there's
unless Trump is going to Jijingping and doing something like that,
or going to Jijingping and putin and going uh okay,
maybe it's not block it for you know other or worse,
let's take out that Kanga. I think it's Kanga Island
(20:06):
where the main.
Speaker 4 (20:08):
Is that the isn't that the baby kangaroo like.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Well, somebody will well, I'm sure is going to email
us or call us or what to say. Oh no, No,
it's the island where it's their main where they fill
up all the tankers and and a huge refinery of Iran,
and and it's it's the main artery at the you know,
(20:36):
the top of the straight horse moves right there, and
you take that out and then it does the same thing. Now,
all of a sudden, China and Russia aren't getting any
oil out of out of the Middle East either, and
so you know that that would change everything directly. But
as long as you have the two countries that get
(21:00):
you know, a fourth or fifth of their oil from.
Speaker 3 (21:06):
China.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
Yeah, I mean, so you want you want to end
this even early and you want to cut off the
stickett to all money too. I ran to, you know,
hobble along trying to you know, here's trying to block
the So here's the straight still just just block block
it all together.
Speaker 5 (21:27):
Here's just the opposite it. It won't hurt us.
Speaker 2 (21:30):
In fact, now people will be coming to the US
and Venezuela, Canada's other countries even more.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
I think that's why we're doing this actually, right, that's
just my opinion.
Speaker 4 (21:42):
So but on the other side, being playing devil's advocate, and.
Speaker 5 (21:46):
I know you live when I do this is when
your liberal side comes out.
Speaker 3 (21:50):
No, it's just playing devil's advocate. There's two there's two
sides to everything. Right.
Speaker 4 (21:54):
If we're going in there and just taking over this
and taking over that, and then just controlling this and
controlling that of international waters, then what what what is
that put out there for other big nations to later
at some point in time do the very same thing.
Right with the international water we need that impacts our.
Speaker 5 (22:14):
Trade, What do we need what do we need from
other countries?
Speaker 4 (22:17):
Well, specifically with trade or hermus not as much as
other nations, but there are other passageways where we do
need that, right and their internet. They're also claimed as
international water, like the South China Sea, right, and there's
been and there's been issues without well they're making islands
out there anywhere, and there's been and there's been some interference.
So now if all of a sudden they level up
(22:40):
and then they start saying, well, okay, you guys blocked
it over there, impacted us and then tried to do
some negotianswers, We're going to do it with your trade
paths international waters. So that's the only problem that I
see with it. I understand your point to get like.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
A quick resolveau listen as the greatest country in the world,
who for the last you know, fifty years plus has
been offshoring, you know, things, to be reliant on all
these other adversarial countries. Yeah, this is exactly what we need.
(23:12):
In my opinion, that's our own fault, right, it is
our own fault.
Speaker 4 (23:15):
We don't need We should have the whole time just
connected ourselves with allied countries or neutral countries to be that,
but to have our manufacturing and our pharma and stuff
like we realized in COVID, And that really stems from
these twisted leaders and politicians that line their pockets that
(23:35):
we don't see that go through shell companies and so
and so forth that make.
Speaker 2 (23:38):
Me thesellions of dollars that allow.
Speaker 4 (23:41):
These policies and laws and all these different direction trades
and manufacturing here and there with adversarial countries, and now
we're in the predicament that we're in.
Speaker 5 (23:49):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (23:49):
So again in my long view, humble opinion, in my
humble long view opinion, this this just puts more pressure
on us to realize that the lane we're in, the
way we're traveling is the right way. This again helps,
(24:12):
you know, reassure us that this is what needed to happen,
This is the right approach. This will again stimulate us
doing more things at home for ourselves and protecting ourselves
at home and our way of life, because again, it
just proves more and more and more how unreliable other
(24:37):
countries are and actually how adversarial they are, and.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
The well it's been used as leverage, right, right.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
If we can block giving money to any of these
countries around the world, and now just start taking care
of our own. Not only would the dollar go up
in value, you know, our debt and deficit we could
start paying off and balancing our budget puts. Unemployment would
reach the lowest levels in the in the history of measuring,
(25:08):
you know from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment would
go there would be like back in the you know,
the the the Roosevelt. You know, a chicken in every pot,
you know. And and so this in a way is
a good thing because it's making us realize and politicians
(25:29):
will start running on, Hey, we've got to protect the homeland,
protect our jobs, protect our infrastructure, protect our way of life.
And this is just another thing that proves that that's
the right path to be on. And it will make
everybody more prosperous. The more stuff we bring back to
our own shores, the better off will make sense. And
(25:52):
again you're listening to the wise buddy guys, John Scambray
into Septive Scotty. When we'll come back, we'll talk about
again how it's not time to panic and how this
may be a great time to take advantage of some
of the dips and the big names, and how patriotic
we are.
Speaker 5 (26:09):
I am are firm.
Speaker 2 (26:11):
Especially passionate about, you know, helping our clients, you know,
really take advantage of all the decades they put into
saving and accumulating and wanting to you know, have a
good of as good of a life as you could
have for their families and their kids. And ultimately, that's
(26:32):
what we feel our job is because without your wealth,
without you know, your your hard earned savings and all
the work you put into it, you know, we're here
to help defend that. And so that's what I feel
our job really is. And the way we do that
and create is by having a plan, a written plan,
(26:55):
having goals and objectives, your goals and objectives put in
to writing so that we can manage you know, your
the portion of your financial lives that we manage, that
we can manage to that plan. And when you have
a plan and you have goals and objectives, it makes
our job easier to help you not make mistakes. And
(27:17):
that's what I'm really worried about, and that's what I'm
fired up about, and that's why I get off on
these tangents about the news. And you know, some of
these things and the adversaries that we now have and
and have known for a while but weren't doing anything
about it. And hopefully the long game for us is
even greater wealth and prosperity and better uh you know,
(27:40):
uh employment numbers and being able to lower taxes and
so on and so forth.
Speaker 3 (27:46):
And so far, taxes have been lowered, taxes have been lowered.
People who are doing people.
Speaker 4 (27:51):
Who are doing taxes for last year should be noticing
a little bit of a bump up. Yeah, Unemployment is
still low. It's higher than what it was, but still
in a great zone right now.
Speaker 2 (28:02):
And interest rates are out of control. You know, early
on you mentioned tariffs and the and the what we
saw at the beginning of last year where we had
a major UH crash and the values of the indices
and and the value overall in the stock market. But
no inflation came. No out of control inflation came from
(28:23):
from tariffs.
Speaker 3 (28:24):
Right now, now we're.
Speaker 2 (28:26):
Going to see a little bit of energy inflation right
obviously with gas prices. But you know what it depends on.
It depends more so in the state of California than
in the rest of the nations.
Speaker 3 (28:37):
California has had perpetual gas.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
It's not going to impact the nation as a whole
as much as it's going to impact Californians. All the
more reason why to either come to our seminar coming
up that I haven't mentioned and I will in California,
or call us for a no obligation consultation because we're
not panicking. We are the defenders of your retirement and
your investments and your wealth. And if you've been following
(29:06):
us or if you're a client of us, you aren't panicking.
And in fact, you know you're you're wondering what we're
buying and what we're doing, and looking at your accounts
and each day and seeing that, uh, you know, we're
not experience. It's not as what you would think we
were experience watching on the news. So call us at
(29:27):
nine six ninety six seven thirty five hundred to come
in for a no obligation consultation. We'll do a free
retirement plan analysis for you. If you don't have a
plan or have it done a plan in a long time,
We're going to do one absolutely no obligation and free
of free of charge, so that you can decide if
(29:47):
the planning process and the way we manage and actively
managed money is the right way for you again called
nine one six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. The
other opportunity, uh, if you're listening, is to join us
for our seminar in Walnut Creek at Diablo Hills Golf
Course from six to seven thirty pm on April twenty ninth,
(30:12):
which is a Wednesday again at Diablo Hills Golf Course
from six to seven thirty pm on Wednesday, April twenty ninth.
Call to register. We're already just started, you know, talking
about that and putting that out there that we're going
to have that, and it is so timely to make
sure that you know, you've got the best plan of
(30:35):
action going forward, the best roadmap, you know, the best
people at your side working for you to get you
through you know, these turbulent financial times called nine one
six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. I was just
looking at, you know, the ten year treasury and it
(30:56):
hasn't broken through four point five. It's flirted with four
point five a little bit. And that that four point
five is kind of a barometer of interest rates starting
to really impact you know, access to capital because people
quite frankly, will maybe kind of consider well, when it
(31:18):
gets to five percent, I was just gonna say, it's
really the five. But once you break the four point five,
then it's like, oh god, are we going to hit five?
Speaker 3 (31:26):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (31:27):
Four and a quarter I mean some of the commonists
that I follow, you know, four and a quarter to
four point seventy five right now is a normal range,
you'd call it, you know, once you start going beyond that,
and especially when you get to five percent, and what
we're talking about if you're saying, like what are you
interest rate of? What is the ten year treasury bond?
The US Treasury bond, And there's two years, five years,
(31:50):
ten that goes all the way to thirty, but the
ten year Treasury bond is really what's used as a
barometer to see where interest rates are at. And you know,
is the bond market signaling inflation or is it signaling
a calming environment? And right now it's been spiking up,
(32:11):
which is the worry for some inflation.
Speaker 3 (32:13):
And how does that directly impact you?
Speaker 4 (32:15):
Well, if you're going out there and trying to get
a mortgage or refinancing a house, those interest rates have
gone up, you know, before they dipped below six percent
and now they're approaching from what I've seen last was
around six point four percent for a thirty year mortgage.
That also impacts you if you're getting any other loans
out there, like a car loan or so on and
so forth. So that's how it really impacts you, on
(32:36):
top of the energy increase on you know, going to
the gas pump, especially here in California. But we're in
a normal range, so there's no red flag or signal
when we're saying, hey, interest rates are going up or
the ten year Treasury is going.
Speaker 3 (32:51):
Up, not at this point.
Speaker 4 (32:53):
And so far the stock market that we talked about
being not so off their all time highs, and know
long term bullish, we're not in a bear market or
worried about any type of systemic risk. Really, the only
thing I think we're watching right now that what I'm
concerned with to see if it becomes a bigger problem
(33:13):
as a private credit market that has shown some financial cracks. Now,
if the oil stays at a higher level, puts more
pressures on the market, put some pressure on inflation, and
some of the upcoming inflation data, and this sustains at
a longer period of time or than the FEDS or
can continue to have to pause and not cut rates
(33:35):
any further, but then also put some pressure and interest
rates go up and put some pressure on private credit markets.
That's where it can cause some more volatility, even outside
this Iran deal. But so far, we're not seeing any
major red flags, right, especially not to the point where
(33:55):
some of these news and media that are putting out
there of like, oh no, well, this is what's going on,
and this is what could happen, and if this doesn't happen,
and that could happen, and so on and so forth,
it's not We don't see any major red flags in
that area.
Speaker 3 (34:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (34:10):
The good news is is that we really liked fixed income,
you know, over the last couple of years, especially when
when interest rates went up, because when interest rates go up,
as long as you don't have a lot of debt,
and most of our retired clients have no debt, then
then it's an investment opportunity, right because bond devices are down.
(34:32):
Typically when interest rates go up and you're getting things
at par or at a discount, and we're still buying bonds.
We still like that because C bonds are in the
mid mid and even seeing some in the high fives.
Speaker 4 (34:45):
Yeah, And to put it, to put it plainly in
Layman's terms, is if you're retired and you're retired in
your in your savior and you're living on a fixed
income at this point in time where you've saved what
you saved and you're not accumulating anymore, interest rates are high.
Speaker 3 (34:59):
You can go walk.
Speaker 4 (34:59):
Into right now and get a CD or promo savings account.
You see them, even American Express and Poppy Bank and
some man the smaller banks are giving four plus percent
interest on a high yield savings and so so we
haven't had that, I mean recently, it's been here for
the past couple of years, but prior to twenty twenty
two when inflation really it was went through the roof. Yeah,
(35:23):
it was a fraction of a percent, and so it's
been a long time since we've seen that.
Speaker 5 (35:27):
So CD was a half a one percent for a year.
Speaker 4 (35:30):
Right, So people who have accumulated and savers and retired
and people are on fixed income, that's great. And so
that translates not only on high yield savings CDs, but
also like John was saying, fixed income, which are bonds,
which are the same thing, which then you get even
higher interest rate that you can lock in because when
you're buying individual bonds, then you have actual maturity dates,
(35:53):
so it's spelled out. You know how much money you
put in, you know how much interest you're getting because
it's basically a contract. Let's say you get a AP
Morgan bond or Wells Fargo bond or anything out there
that says we're paying five percent in interest. They've collected
your money you now have, they have your money in return,
they're giving you five percent every year. Now, it doesn't
matter what the market's doing or interest rate environment, whether
(36:15):
it's going up or down, you're getting five percent every
year on that money that you gave them. And then
when it matures, you get principal back and you already
know that's going to be and everything is spelled out.
Speaker 3 (36:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (36:25):
My advice, especially with rates still being decent from an
investment perspective and a price perspective, is that you know,
focus on what things pay as far as what cash
flow you'll get, you know, on the time off the
top from the investment, focus on dividends, focus on interest rates,
(36:47):
don't focus so much on trying to you know, beat
the one of the indexes winning stock be a stock picker,
because that's where you know, right now, you're really worried.
Because if the only way that you're making money is that, Okay,
I paid you know, a certain price for a particular investment,
(37:09):
and I'm going to sell it when it hits a
higher price, and then that's the only return on investment
I get from that.
Speaker 5 (37:17):
That's tough to do.
Speaker 2 (37:19):
Especially in the volatility of the last couple of years,
where yeah, unless you've got you know, really a strong
gut right to buy when things are down and then
rebalance and sell when things are up, and most people don't,
you know, they buy high and sell low.
Speaker 4 (37:40):
Me I mean investing without having emotion getting exactly So.
Speaker 2 (37:46):
One of the things that I highly recommend is that
when you are working with an advisor, hopefully they have
a plan in place for you, and hopefully you have
good goals and objectives and a realistic under standing of
what you need to make versus you know, just hearing that,
oh the S and P went up, you know, twenty
(38:06):
percent last year, and god, I want to make twenty percent.
Speaker 5 (38:10):
Beat that.
Speaker 2 (38:11):
If you know that you only need a six or
seven percent return each year to have a lifelong income
in retirement on you know, the assets that you've you know,
accumulated and the other resources that you have, which might
be income from rental properties or of course social security
as well as I might have a pension to so
(38:35):
on and so forth. But once you know that, hey,
based on the five hundred thousand, the million, the two million,
the five million, whatever you have, if you only need
you know, a four or five six, seven percent return,
then why risk going for a twenty percent return and
only getting that return if you buy your something was
(38:57):
bought at one price and you need to sell it
at a higher price to get that return on your money,
focus on dividends and interest and what investments pay you
right now, That's that's my two cents. If you would
like to come in for a no obligation consultation called
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred, if
(39:18):
you want to see us live and see how we
are addressing and helping our clients address and deal with
volatility and staying you know, on track, on track, that's
the word I was looking for. Come to our workshop,
our workshop for retirees. So we're assuming you're retired or
(39:40):
about to retire. If you register and you have investments
and means that you're concerned about, that's who would sign
up and attend. It's in Walnut Creek. We are listened
to in the Bay area all the way pretty much
over to Reno and down to the Central Valley, so
(40:00):
we do have offices potentially near you in those areas.
But come to our Walnut Creek seminar on April twenty
ninth from six to seven thirty pm. That's a Wednesday,
called nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
At that seminar, we'll show you more specifically strategies that
(40:25):
we're employing, how they've worked, how we think they're going
to work, types of investments that are are very timely
and helpful to most of our clients and could be
helpful to you as well to reaching your goals with
the least amount of risk that you possibly could take based.
Speaker 5 (40:45):
On those goals.
Speaker 2 (40:47):
Again called nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
You can also go to our website to contact us
or to just get more information about us. Our disclosures
are at the bottom of the page, but there's also
regular videos that we put out on our website and
social media. You can watch the show on our YouTube
(41:08):
channel Wise Money Guys, or just search for our names
or search for Wise Money Guys and when you see
the one that has our names, you'll see this show
on YouTube as well. But lots of resources. We're willing
to give lots of information and advice specifically to you
if you come in and sit down for a no
(41:29):
obligation consultation. As I said already, we'll even do a
free retirement plan that you can that we can put
in writing for you, no obligation whatsoever. And if you
like that conversation and think we're the right fit, well,
then decide to hire us. If not, no pressure whatsoever.
Again called nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
Speaker 4 (41:51):
So we've talked quite a bit, especially on the Iran
situation and the pressures that it's putting on the market.
You know how the media is portraying it, the economy.
Where do we go from here? There's still uncertainty, is
the bottom line. Nobody's got a crystal ball.
Speaker 5 (42:09):
There lots of volatility.
Speaker 4 (42:11):
Yeah, nobody has a crystal ball on how this is
all going to unfold. I think you know this is
probably taking longer than anticipated on Trump's end, hopefully, but
you hopefully we'll find.
Speaker 2 (42:23):
The absurdness of that. A major escalation between multiple countries,
and the expectation is that it was only going to
be a few days, maybe a week or two.
Speaker 4 (42:37):
There's no way absurd Well, especially since you know, the
whole kind of premise was for forty seven years Iran
has been against us, and so then we're going to
win against the world, and we're gonna and we're going
to resolve.
Speaker 3 (42:49):
It in two weeks. No, it's not going to happen.
Speaker 4 (42:50):
So the big thing is figuring out these pathways, these
highways right straight off hor Moose and what have you
that's impacting impacting oil. Well, all that being said, you
know where markets are right now, how they have been
reacting to all of this news and data that's been
coming in has been very resilient. Our economy, our stock
(43:12):
market in the US has employment are yeah, is all
still intact, all showing resilience, which is a good sign
for the US markets. You know, we're seeing signs both
on Trump and potentially maybe in other nations of negotiations
or even just open to talking. So that means that
(43:32):
there's at least pathways of finding some de escalation and
all this.
Speaker 2 (43:36):
Well, pathways just real quickly, new pathways to getting oil
out of the Middle East are going to be one
of the results of this that we're you're already seeing
you know, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations going, oh,
we're going to put more through our pipelines and other
ways to distribute our energy versus being reliant on the
(43:59):
ease of just going through the straight So right, that's
a positive thing that's going to come out of this
as well.
Speaker 4 (44:05):
Yeah, and hopefully again sooner rather than later. But you know,
the structural how the market in the economy is set
up structurally is still bullish, meaning still pointing.
Speaker 3 (44:18):
Positive not negative.
Speaker 4 (44:20):
I think these geopolitical like most geopolitical events, like we've
seen with Russia and Ukraine before Russian Crimea and other
geopolitical events have taken place, is that it ends up
being a bump in the road rather than.
Speaker 3 (44:34):
A total crash.
Speaker 4 (44:35):
And so we think ultimately that's what will happen. And
so how long is this bump in the road going
to take place? Is it going to be another couple
of months or so? Who knows, but you want to
pay attention to you know, what are you looking for?
Piece talks, the FED response, and the signals that the
Federal Reserve puts out there inflation data, right, those are
going to be the important parts.
Speaker 2 (44:56):
More importantly, you've been listening to the wise many guys, Johns,
i'mbry Into Seppi Vescani, please give us a call at
nine one six nine sixty seven thirty five hundred to
arrange that no obligation consultation or to register for our
April twenty ninth seminar for retirees or people about to
retire in Walnut Creek. I hope you have enjoyed listening
(45:17):
to the show. Come back and listen to us next weekend.
Have a wonderful Saturday.
Speaker 3 (45:21):
Bye all, have a great weekends.
Popular Podcasts
Hey Jonas!
Hey Jonas! The official Jonas Brothers podcast. Hosted by Kevin, Joe, and Nick Jonas. It’s the Jonas Brothers you know... musicians, actors, and well, yes, brothers. Now, they’re sharing another side of themselves in the playful, intimate, and irreverent way only they can. Spend time with the Jonas Brothers here and stay a little bit longer for deep conversations like never before.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com