February 25, 2026 • 44 mins
The stock market has been Up, but some of the other indicies are down, or flat. What does that mean for your portfolio? Hosts John and Giuseppe give us a break-downof today's financial markets. Plus, the importance of Estate Planning, Government Debt, and AI Euphoria. The Wise Money Guys.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show.
I'm your co host, John Scambray, and I am here
with my partner this weekend to sub you Wisconsin. And
we are certified portfolio Managers, which means we're investment experts
and we love helping people who are about to retire
or are retired manage their money. As always, if you
(00:34):
want to get a hold of us for questions or
schedule a no obligation consultation, or better yet, register for
our March fourth seminar at Wood Creek Golf Club from
five point thirty to seven again on March fourth, which
is a Wednesday. Give us a call at nine one
six nine six seven thirty five hundred and we'll mention
(00:57):
that again later in the show and what you can
expect to get out of that food will be great,
information will be great, but learn more about that later
on in the show. First of all, if you haven't
tuned into us before, Giuseppe and I have been doing
this for a while, you could say almost fifty years combined,
(01:17):
me over thirty plus years, Giuseppe over sixteen.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Plus years, almost.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Twenty My goodness, and we're still spring chickens. That's what's great.
But honestly, experience, especially in times like right now, matter
because we've been hopefully educating the public, talking as much
as we can, putting out advice and ideas well, not advice,
(01:46):
but suggestions and ideas that exactly what is happening right
now would be happening. We started saying that this would
be a volatile year, albeit we thought it would be
a good year. Still think that, right, Yeah, not without
speed bumps, which we're not withsting out speed bumps. That's
a great way to put it. I talked a lot
about headwinds and tailwinds and speed bumps, and I said repeatedly,
(02:10):
look for these things to affect the profitability in your positions,
and you know, rebalance, you know, don't be afraid to
buy dips, don't be afraid to lock in you know,
some gains. And hopefully if you're not giving us a call,
if you're not a client already, you've been paying attention
(02:32):
and doing some of those things, and so.
Speaker 3 (02:35):
You can also, by the way, find out more information
about us on our website which you can go to
wisemoneyguys dot com, which currently is being revamped, so hopefully
pretty soon we'll have a new, fresh website, but in
the meantime you can find out more about us. There's
some tool you know, interesting tools in their retirement and calculators,
(02:58):
and then you can scroll down to those.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
Video there's educational videos on you know, how to dollar
cost average, how to do basic trades. There's a video
and a tutorial just about on every topic with respect
to financial services, including things like you know how much
debt you should have? Should you you know what what
what a mortgage cost you? As you said, calculators, but
(03:20):
there's newsletters and of course there's ways to just get
a hold of us from there as well, and also
there's our disclosures which we have to put up there
which just tell you a little bit more about our company,
which are at the bottom of the page. By the way,
the Wise Money Guys Show is brought to you by
One Source Wealth Management. That's our official SEC registered investment
(03:43):
advisory firm which is licensed three one nine zero seven
eight and keep in mind that there is no investment
that can't lose value. And I don't know how you
got me on this, but and past performance isn't a
guarantee of future result.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
I think that sounds I think the website. Yeah, the
website kicked off, that's what did it. We have We
have quite a bit, you know. I think we will
digest a little bit of what's going on with the
volatility that we've been what you're seeing recently going on,
a little bit of earnings, a lot of volatility in
the mag seven and some of the aid.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Software and tech that has just been getting hammered so
far this month. Crypt Bitcoin is absolutely getting hammered because
we've said and and and if you aren't aware, it
really is a risk asset. It is not a reserve currency.
(04:43):
It is not a stable investment. It is a risk asset.
And one of the first things people sell when there's
volatility is their highest risk assets. And guess what. Bitcoin
is one of the highest risk assets out there because
it's backed by nothing. It is nothing. So it always
(05:06):
cracks me up when people you know, or we read
or hear or watch on you know, uh, some of
the services that we as we watch. Yeah, I mean,
honest to God, and you get the people on there,
the sealers of the world, sailors. Yeah that, oh matter what,
put all your money in it.
Speaker 3 (05:27):
And my goodness, he's putting a lot of this, he's
put a lot of his company assets.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Well it's great if you made billions, you know, because
now you're only giving up some profit in the millions,
but you're still in the billions. Yeah, and so but
people you know buying it now, I don't think it's
I don't think it's at the bottom yet. And as
far as advice, which we always try to get on,
you know, just good principles and not telling you specifically
(05:53):
what investment to buy, but just good you know, investment
principles when it comes to managing your money. That that
we follow is you don't have to pick a bottom.
We made some changes to our stock portfolios this week,
and and you know, some we were selling, they weren't.
(06:13):
The two changes we made weren't selling at the very
top of what they had achieved. But still, I mean
great double digit returns on the things we sold, and
the two things that we replaced, the two stocks that
we were placed in our in our growth and our
income and growth portfolios weren't exactly at the bottom, although
(06:37):
one of them was was sand disc and it's it's
it's rallying up even though the market is down.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Now, yeah, you want to, you want the meat of it,
but more so you need to figure out it's risk management.
Really is. People will get into it because of stock
or cryptocurrency whatever, because of Hey, you know I saw
it or or I missed it. I missed the right
up last time it got meet up?
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Right?
Speaker 3 (07:00):
Now? You know I want to. I want to jump
into it, but you have to have a target for yourself.
When are you willing to take some profits off the
table or sell it? Right? What's your target? You bought
something for one hundred bucks and then it goes to
two hundred bucks? Is that enough? Does that meet your goals?
And then on the flip side, what's your risk management? Hey,
I bought it for one hundred bucks. If things don't
work out in my favor or doesn't pan out the
(07:22):
way I think it's going to pan out and it
starts going down, where do I where do I take
my losses? Right? You don't want a lot of times
people will get you know, in a situation or a
scenario where you're catching a falling knife and it goes
down and down, You're like, I'm just going to hold
on to it. Sometimes people just continue to add and
add and add. It could work for some stocks and
some strategies to continue to add and dollar cost average in,
(07:45):
but you have to really do your research and know
that it's you know, something that's not fundamentally going on
specifically with a company, and maybe it's some outside event
that is overreacting, but those you need to have a
risk management in place, right and you need to have
kind of your target on the top end, and you
have to have your risk your your risk line on
(08:05):
the bottom end to know when hey, this is enough,
this is going below or beyond my risk tolerance and threshold,
and I'm out and I'm looking for other opportunities out there.
It doesn't make any sense to get married to one
stock to think that that's going to be the home run.
There's thousands of companies out there to to invest in.
There's hundreds of different types of investments out there to
(08:26):
invest in.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
Well, if you see you know, and I'm thinking of
you know, a couple of days last week where the
market was substantially down, there were still companies that were up,
and especially some of the Dow Jones companies, some of
the more consumer staple type companies or things that people
need to have, you know, in our own portfolio for clients.
(08:47):
You saw Gilead, you know, was up, and then other
companies like Johnson and Johnson were up well, and bring
and you bring up a you bring up aerospace. There's
there's all kinds of sectors within each.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
And you're bringing up a good point. And what's happening.
What's happening and what we're seeing is there's a broadening
of the market. And we said, we were talked about
this in previous episodes.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
The last Vidia, Amazon, Google, Netflix, Tesla and Facebook and
Apple aren't gonna be you know, the way and just
the holy grail of making money this year. What there's
more companies they did. They did it for three years
in a row. So now it's time to pass on
the torch. And we're seeing a broadening, which is great.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
So you know the max seven of the S and
P five hundred, it's the other four hundred and ninety three.
So what we've been seeing is, you know, sectors specifically sectors,
like you're talking about communications, services, staples, energy, industrials, materials,
So those are all you off? Go ahead, what'd you
say in there? What communication? You know, staples, your avoid, industrials, materials, Nope,
(09:59):
and energy.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
I've loved the energy sector and have talked about it
for years on this radio show because again it the
world has to have it. There isn't anything we do
that you can't that you can't do it without energy.
Obviously in its different forms. You know, whether it's your
utilities at your house or your business, or whether it's
(10:25):
now powering data centers or you know, being able to
get from point A to point B and whatever transportation
mode you know, on and on and on. It just
goes up and down obviously with with with with the markets,
but never I mean, if you're in the right type
of companies, the right type of gas company, the right
(10:46):
type of oil company, the right type of you know,
different energy product, whether it's natural gas or companies goal
or nuclear supply equipment to energy companies, exactly right. I mean,
they're they're is always good investments to be had in
the energy sector. Now that doesn't mean take your portfolio
(11:07):
and put it all in energy because it is it
is volatile, but one of my favorite investments. I mean
it was volatile, but boy, I mean if you just
look at from when I first mentioned it probably five
years ago now on the radio, to where it is now.
You know, it was in the low teens and now
it's in the high twenties. I mean even since you
(11:30):
a T shirt, as they should, you made me a
T shirt as a joke. But I still like this investment.
Now the dividend isn't as great since the case is
gone because the price so literally doubled, doubled, but you're
buying it here. It's not as good. But we'll talk
more about you know, strategies and particular investments and our
(11:51):
thoughts on the economy, so on and so forth. And
you started to mention the broadening of the market and
and again when when tech has favored the market at people,
that's all they want to talk about, right, that's all,
you know, even our own clients they come in and go, hey,
should we should we add to this? And we say,
you know, no, we're sticking to your plan. We're sticking
(12:11):
to your portfolio because there will be times just like
this when you get bit if you chase you know,
uh a price of particular companies. And now we're seeing
really the broadening into smaller companies, small international, What are
some what are some of the companies.
Speaker 3 (12:30):
And how is the breath Actually, well, it's just some
of the you know, the sectors that I've already mentioned, communications, services, staples, energy, industrials, materials.
But then also there's been a shift to global equities
as well, so we're seeing a broadening out to you know,
international and global companies, not just US, along with other
(12:51):
sectors and then small caps. So smaller companies have had
a boost. Currently has been going through some volatility with
a market poollback right or what I mean to that,
But you've been seeing these smaller companies and more so
the value small cat value companies that have been coming
up as well, So you have a lot more choices
out there than just focusing on the max seven that's
(13:12):
been dragging the you know market up overall, and we'll
see if this continues on. I think overall that's better
for the market in the economy because it creates a
more fundamentally sound powl market rather than a handful of seven,
ten fifteen stocks that are really you know, the a
(13:35):
third or more of what the market is representative of.
So I think, you know, and how long how long
are the Max seven going to carry it? I mean
they've already had a run for three years, and I
think there's some realization coming into play of how much
investment has gone into AI. I mean recently Google came
out and.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
No profits, all expenses.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
Yeah, and Google came out and then just you know,
up to their cap back spending as far as what
they're putting into AI. So that's why you saw Google,
you know, this week take a little bit of a
hit with this volatility. It's when is it going to
actually turn into profit and is it soon enough? And
then also are they getting are they getting ahead of
(14:16):
themselves where you know, it can't be supported with all
these data centers and energy and infrastructure what have you,
because it's going to take time to build out. So
are all these different.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
Out going to take nuclear to power these data centers?
I mean there's there they can do enough refine of oil.
There's not enough infrastructure in place to to really keep
up with the demand for the power that these data
centers will take. It's really just nuclear that can keep
up with that demand currently and what a joke. It's
(14:47):
definitely not solar or wind that will you know, solve
any sort of energy shortfall because of data centers.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
So right, you know, part of the part of the
volatility you're seeing too is just we the sentiment has
been very bullish. Mean, there's a lot more optimistic and
positive traders on the market out there, and usually it's
a contrarian indicator saying that there's too many and so
once that starts calming down, then we're getting closer and
(15:18):
closer to this volatility and is pulled back to start
ending where it can flip around and start making its
way back up. And so that's where you look to, Hey,
if I've been heavy in some of the technology sector
because those were the previous winners, whether you've been in it,
or maybe you relate to the game and said I
need to get into it, or maybe you're seeing pulled
(15:38):
back now and saying like, well, maybe tech is gonna,
you know, have a year like it did in twenty
twenty four, and I want to ride that train again.
This is a good time where and we've talked about
before to rebalance, look at what's inside of your portfolio.
If you don't know, that's a good opportunity to call
guys like US nine one six nine six seven thirty
five hundred. But that's exactly can we do is look at,
(16:01):
you know, your overall portfolio, do an analysis, see what
you're in. But then more so, you know, put a
plan together if you don't have a plan, and then
make sure that those two things match up.
Speaker 2 (16:11):
You know, I started talking last week, and actually I
talked about this a lot, some of the mistakes that
people make when they're managing their own money. Sadly, some
of the mistakes that a lot of advisors make when
managing people's money. And nobody's perfect. There isn't a perfect system.
There isn't a perfect you know, advisory process. But you
(16:32):
try to get and and and try to establish and
stick to principles and strategies that work, you know, that
align with people's plans, as you said, and the reality
is right here. The mistakes that people make, this is
super important, is they try to time the market, so
you know, for whatever investments they have, they try to
(16:52):
get out at the very tippy tippy top and then
they're always holding on looking for more. That greed kicks
in or work. You know, once things go down, if
they have gotten out and have locked in profits, they
don't get back in. And so who did we have
just recently, I can't remember if it was a prospective
client or a current client, but they literally have been
(17:14):
keeping you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash
on the sideline and they just they just missed it
because they thought they could time a perfect bottom. You
don't have to you know, sell at the perfect top.
You don't have to buy at the perfect bottom to
make a lot of money in investments over you know,
(17:36):
any sort of normal period of time. And and people
just get you know, overly greedy or it. And and
the reality is the mistakes that you're going to make
right here are you probably already made them, not rebalancing,
not locking in some profit and then not buying you know, great,
(17:59):
call any names right here, because guess what, there's nothing
wrong with our economy. This sellof is is a normal
sort of market uh uh pull back, And it always
happens based on some sort of news. So the news
we've been talking about is there was going to be
another government shut down this year. There would be you know,
(18:23):
political ballot battles over the budget, check check the FOMC
and there you know mandate and how they approach you know,
interest rates as a result of inflation data. We've been
talking about these things. We've been telling people they're coming
(18:43):
and to properly diversify. And so I was we were
texting each other early this morning, you know, shortly after
the market opened that hey, good thing. Our clients have
fixed income alternatives, cash, real estate exposure, metal exposure, so
(19:04):
on and so forth, and not just stocks. You don't
need just stocks in your portfolio to make great returns
on your money. So please don't make more mistakes. Give
us a call at nine one, six ninety six, seven
thirty five hundred and let me mention again. You know,
(19:26):
we show people some of the things we actually have
in our client's portfolios. We we talk about the markets
and where we believe they're going and how you know,
a proper approach could help you not lose hundreds of
thousands or potentially make you hundreds of thousands over whatever
(19:49):
your your your your time horizon is. And you can
see that live on March fourth, from five thirty to
seven at Would Creek Golf Club that's a Wednesday. And
if you're way away from retirement or you're not currently
retired and you don't have an investment portfolio of any kind,
(20:14):
you probably shouldn't attend. But if you do and you're
concerned about, you know, continuing to have good years like
you may have had the last three, you definitely want
to be there.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
To have longevity within your portfolios, yeah, to not run
last throughout your retirement.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
The other thing we'll talk about, and I'm probably sharing
this with you right now, which you know we get
a lot and that we should be talking about it
more at our seminars is the question on again, if
you're about to retire and you have it, or you
are retired and you haven't started your social security, when
to take it? So we can definitely talk about that.
(20:54):
And then also the other thing that is often you know,
a question for a lot of people and prior to
seventy five, now should you convert to a Wroth? And
we've run dozens and dozens and dozens of calculations break
even analysis on social security because that's in our plan
(21:15):
Wroth conversion analysis, that's in our plans that answer those questions.
And when you work with us if you come to
that seminar, if you sit down for a no obligation consultation,
you become a client that's included in your financial plan,
which is included in your advisory fee. We don't charge
separate for planning. We only charge one fee for fiduciary
(21:39):
responsibilities to you. And I think we're probably, in my opinion,
and I try to be humble, I think we're the
best in the area. I really do. At the end
of the day, give us a call. You won't regret
registering for that seminar and coming in and sitting down
with us for a no obligation consultation. Again, the seminar
is on more Arch fourth. We feed you dinners included
(22:03):
you should be about to retire or are retired, and
the number is nine to one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred. Okay, you know we were talking about
broadening of the markets that we're seeing, you know, investment
dollars flow out of the tech names that have been
so profitable as far as trades over the last several years.
(22:27):
But really, don't don't forget that. There's as and I
think I mentioned it briefly, there's alternatives there's the fixed
income space, there's the real estate space, and we can
add and and and we think, you know, again, if
you have a basic goal and nothing unusual for although
(22:50):
we do have some people that have some unusual wealth
tied to things not in one of the five categories
that are very liquid stocks, bonds, real estate alternatives, and
and cash investments. You know, we have a client that
has a seven figure stamp collection, which you know blows
(23:12):
me away. But there's there's people that have silver. No, well,
gold has been collecting silver for for decades.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
Which has had a great run, but it has been
volatile along with gold recently.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
Yeah, been volatile. Gold and silver have been volatile. But
now I think it's me personally. I think it's a bible.
Speaker 3 (23:31):
They're always and they're always volatile. And we mentioned before,
you know, as volatile as stocks. Uh more actually yeah, more. Yeah,
it's got a misconception sold as you know, safe and
like put your money in gold and create safety because
who knows about the uncertain uncertainties of the market.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
I would say that's a lot smarter than thinking that
you're you're safer because you're putting your money in bitcoin. Right.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
No, but but The reality is, when you're looking at
a long, long term perspective, I think I ran it
for like twenty years. The volatility of gold has been
more so than stocks. So yeah, you put your portfolio
on a you know, in a stock portfolio or S
and P five hundred over twenty years versus gold, and
you're better off with a stock portfolio. Well, and who knows?
Speaker 2 (24:19):
I mean again, I started saying talking about gold, primarily
saying it would go to five thousand dollars an ounce.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
It did.
Speaker 2 (24:28):
I think over the next decade it'll be ten thousand
dollars an ounce.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
I mean again.
Speaker 2 (24:33):
Countries are trying to you know, shore up their currencies,
make their currencies more stable and lo and behold. How
do you do that? You tie it to a fixed,
shiny metal called gold. Now that doesn't mean you put
all your money in gold or silver, but I think
(24:54):
if you don't have gold or silver exposure, which again
we can help you with, you know, you should have
a percentage.
Speaker 3 (25:02):
We're not talking about actual hard hard gold or exposure.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
We can we can tie investments that are tied to
gold or silver, just like we can you know, get
investments that are tied to real estate and other alternatives
into your account that we manage. And so I think
this is a good time, you know, buy if you again,
you haven't had a gold or silver exposure in your portfolio.
Speaker 3 (25:30):
Did you want it?
Speaker 2 (25:30):
Buy it when when gold was at you know, fifty
four hundred dollars an ounce and now it's at forty
eight hundred ounce? Or did you want to buy silver
at one hundred almost one hundred and thirty dollars an
ounce and now it's at you know, seventy dollars an ounce.
Speaker 3 (25:42):
Crazy, So a matter of weeks, in a matter of weeks,
buy on these dips.
Speaker 2 (25:49):
And and then if you follow our rule of thumb
where you don't buy more than a five percent position,
let let it, you know, let other things run the
course before you rebalance.
Speaker 3 (26:03):
You know from there you'll be okay. Yeah, And it
has to it has to make sense, like we're we're mentioning,
you know, different sectors of the market or gold or silver.
So so take take some of this with a grain
of salt. We're just talking and in generality, but reality
is is, you know, we don't know who you are,
what your timeline is, what's your risk tolerance is, what
(26:25):
you know, if gold and silver, how much of it
makes sense in your portfolio? And that's why we say,
you know, the opportunities to give us a call to
have a no obligation consultation to come see us in
person at the March fourth you know workshop, a workshop
that we're going to have because then it gives an
opportunity to really uncover and look more specifically at the
(26:48):
different asset classes. Right, there's gold and silver, which is
the metals, there's other alternative investments, there's different stocks, sectors
of stocks. How much exposure do you have to different
asset classes? We still like bonds, don't forget bonds. How
you know how you know, how should it be constructed
based off of your plan. That's an individual thing and
(27:08):
that's what we work with our clients individually or the
families you know, at a time. We don't just put
together this portfolio and everybody gets the same portfolio, because
everybody's different. Ye, So just just keep that in mind.
But that's that's a crucial point to Seppie, because you know,
what we do is custom for our clients. Right.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
We don't just put you in a cookie cutter, you know,
basket of mutual funds, because we find that is the
worst diversification potentially out there when people just have different
brands of funds with different names as far as what
that fund is named, and then think they're diversified. We
find over and over again. Oh and my favorite is
(27:51):
that you know they're doing it for no cost. Mutual
funds ETFs, especially if they're actively managed mutual fund and ETFs,
we'll often have a fee embedded in them that could
be as much or more than what our fee is.
And you don't have a custom portfolio, and you probably
(28:13):
aren't diversified. And so if you're thinking you're saving money
by diversifying amongst different mutual fund or ETF brands, you
probably have expenses in there that you're not aware of.
And again, as j Seppi said, come in, let us
look at these things and just give you a second
(28:36):
opinion and show you what you may not know is
going on.
Speaker 3 (28:41):
And that's what I.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
Really like about our value proposition is because we take
a planning approach, because then that planning approach leads to
a custom portfolio where we do focus on diversification amongst
the different asset classes to get you to whatever your
minimum returns to objective are in the least risky way
(29:06):
that we can get you there. Now, that doesn't mean
there's no risk. It just means that, heck, if you
need a six seven eight percent return, that's going to
dictate what your portfolio looks like.
Speaker 3 (29:18):
If you need a.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
Ten eleven, twelve, thirteen percent return, that's an entirely different
portfolio and one that's going to have more risk than
the one that is only designed to make a six
seven eight percent you know, net return.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
So sometimes sometimes we'll come across clients or prospects that
all they need is even like six seven percent return
or less five percent, But then they're looking for and
they're like, well, my goal is I need to make
like at least ten or twelve percent a year. Why,
I mean, there are years you know that you know,
I've been, you know, having some client conversations and during
(29:54):
reviews and saying, you know, let's take a look at
last year. How did how did your overall port FO perform?
Has it lineup with the overall plan? Has there been
any changes? What's going on for this year in your
new term? Major things that are coming up in your life,
like purchases, things, to pay off or big changes and goals.
But last year was a great year, and you know,
(30:16):
they've outperformed the average return that we're trying to achieve. Great.
We didn't take any more risk in order to achieve
that greater return than what they need to achieve. And
we'll take that because there's gonna be some years that
might be a little bit off. But but what you
don't want to do is turn the dial up and
then increase a risk for the sake of just going
(30:37):
after a higher return because you're seeing, oh, the stock
market held all time high. Oh and Vidio hit this,
Oh this this stock Palenteer super microcomputer or whatever, Silver
hits you know, triple digits or whatever the case, and
you just want to go and try and run. Yeah.
But interesting fact, fun fact, a fun fact. Yeah, a
Time magazine fact. Fun fun f you win, what'd you say,
(31:02):
fund or fun time Time magazine. So the Time curse
hits the mag seven because Time magazine came out and
the whole thing about that it's over. It's Time magazine
magazine says it's over. It's over. No, it's it's usually
you know, it's contralling. Is there always wrong That's what
my sarcasm was. Yeah. Usually the usually the cover of
(31:24):
the magazine will have something, and if it's dealing with
like the economy or some sort of sector in the
stock market, usually the opposite happens. And they had a
they had a cover it said AI Race, AI Race
now Game of Thrones mag seven competing hard and so
and and now that's what we're seeing. We're seeing Obviously
(31:45):
there's been competition. I think there's a new new one
that kind of upended some companies. Anthropic and that one.
Speaker 2 (31:53):
Yes, and more more so because I'll mention something else
about it, more.
Speaker 3 (31:58):
Of the of the legal it's kind of turning turning
the legal sector or job market. It's kind of turning
that around. Whereas you know, all the AI stuff's been
really hitting the software engineers and programmers and what have you.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
What we're gonna say about Anthropic, I was just gonna go, well,
it makes me think that, you know again, talking about
all this AI stuff and how that led you know,
the Microsofts and the Googles and all of them to
double digit run ups.
Speaker 3 (32:27):
You know.
Speaker 2 (32:27):
The thing is and and the conversation around is robots
and artificial intelligence going to replace humans, And the reality
is it will never replace humans, right because it doesn't
have emotion. It doesn't have emotion, it doesn't have a conscious,
that doesn't have a soul. And so people need, you know, empathy,
(32:49):
People need somebody who cares about their their financial lives,
who cares about their personal lives, depending on what your
what your role is to families that to serve. And
the reality is is that they also computers will never
have instinct, right, It's just on and off switches. You know,
(33:14):
they're there, they're zeros in ones. That's all a computer does. Now,
it may get to the point and I believe supercomputers
or quantum computing has surpassed the you know, the electrical
chemical reactions that happen in the human brain by now
being able to do those on and off calculations and
(33:34):
the trillions of transactions per second. But the reality is,
artificial intelligence, robots, computers will never replace humanity. So if
you're thinking the end all be all is just that,
oh great, you know this is going to replace everything.
You know, my grandkids will be out of jobs, so
(33:57):
on and so forth. No, it will increase productivity, it'll
make us more efficient, but it will never replace us
and being able to have that human connection.
Speaker 3 (34:09):
Well, it's huge, it's a it's a big topic. I mean,
I just had this yesterday with a review probably ten minutes.
We were talking about this on pros and cons and
what we think is gonna how it's gonna unfold. But yeah,
I'll hear your ideas and then we can we can
chat back and forth and figure it out.
Speaker 2 (34:24):
Let's mention our number and the seminar one more time
for people who are retired or about to retire that
are concerned about their investments. Well, even if you're not concerned,
you just want to see why our mousetrap is better,
and we believe it is. We believe it'll be time
well spent. It's on March fourth, from five thirty to
seven at Wood Greek Golf Club called nine one, six
(34:47):
ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. So I was saying,
how you know, AI computers, robotics, all of that will
increase productivity, but will never replace the hu human condition,
the human soul, the human instinct, you know, the human empathy,
so on and so forth.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
So I agree, I agree. I guess the concern is
what aspect of the human is it going to replace?
And how much of is it going to replace? Right?
Like we're like I was mentioning before you're seeing and
I like, I have a chat with some of my
cousins and they're from other financial advisors to the financial
technology industry, within the within Silicon Valley and banking, and uh,
(35:31):
they're actually just chatting about it this morning. And one
of my cousins says that, you know, one of his
friends that works at Meta, he's seeing a lot of
just like the lower level program software engineers, they're just
getting let go, right because AI is replacing them. Right.
So it's it'll be interesting and it's hard to come
(35:52):
up with the answer of Okay, well then what replaces it?
Or what do those people now do and look for
a career, right, And so that's the scary part. But
what we can do is look back in history and
look back at all technological advancements, right, major technological advancements
and time and how society and life existed in jobs
(36:15):
that were existing back then. Like an elevator, right, there
used to be a guy that you'd have to go
in the elevator and there was an elevator operator.
Speaker 2 (36:23):
Well, don't forget, there was lamp lighters, right, people would
go around and light the fires and all of the
gas lamps.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Right. So all those things and then they went away.
Now that's pretty simple, right, But then it just continues
to move on.
Speaker 2 (36:34):
We had the closest thing is the Internet. Just right,
we had the Internet made commerce definitely a lot different
than right, we only had going somewhere physically to buy
something physical. And the Internet, you know, created a whole
new world of jobs.
Speaker 3 (36:54):
Well, and restaurants, right, because now you can DoorDash, yes,
as you have if you wanted to go out totally
went out to eat right, right, and now you're like, hey,
I feel like such and such food, And now you said,
well we can just eat at home and door dash
it right, And you have to. I think the big
key is that you have to find a way to
adapt to it because if you don't, then you get
left behind. Right. So the brick and mortar store like
(37:16):
you just brought up on e commerce, if they're just
continuing to rely on walk in customer traffic to buy
their goods products off the shelves. And now you have
the Amazons and all these other stores that are adapting
to shipping, you know, in the same day or next
day delivery on their goods or curb side pickup and
(37:37):
what have you. And you don't do that and you're
not adapting to it, then yeah, you're going to get
left behind. So I think part of it is how
can you best adapt to this change? But it will
be interesting to see, you know, is how many industries
and sectors out there where AI can or robotics or
the combination of both can replace the human and it
(38:00):
either is the opportunity for that human to now adapt
and tweak but still stay in the SA industry or
completely wipe out Like my father had a tile of
marble business, right a trade. YEA hard to think about that.
A robot's going to go ahead and replace somebody who
can do you know, tile or marble or grantite or
whatever that's that's going to be that. But I saw
(38:21):
that's going to be a way off. But I saw,
well you would think, but I saw literally a couple
months ago on some Instagram or whatever, that there's a
machine that literally goes row bi row, puts the fin
set and then behind it lays a tile exactly and
has lasers that just calculates everything and it tiles a
whole whole entire floor. Right, So maybe it's okay, it'll
(38:44):
do simple pattern and now now the tile setter and
the contractor is going to be left up to more
custom you know, batique type jobs. But then maybe they
catch up to that. So do they still tweak it
and now do you just have an operator of that machine. Yeah,
it'll be interesting to see how how certain certain certain jobs,
(39:06):
certain trades that get replaced, and how do you adapt
to that.
Speaker 2 (39:10):
Yeah, I think it's there is a a definitely a
considerable change to the real simple, non highly skilled right jobs,
especially you know, agriculture, maybe maybe tiling things of that nature,
(39:33):
and then coming but maybe not immediately, but some of
the routine procedures that that we have, I think, yeah,
I think all of that will be robotic assessed. At
least we have we already have robotic assisted. I wonder
(39:53):
you know, at some point will probably just be fully robotic.
You just kind of program and you stand in the
background and see it be done really right.
Speaker 3 (40:00):
Yeah, so's it'll be interesting to see how that is.
And then yeah, what do kids, what do kids like?
My kids? Right, my two daughters are eleven and twelve.
I'm sorry, there'll be eleven and thirteen here pretty soon.
What do they study? Do they what do they get into? Right?
Because some of the things that maybe I thought, or
you definitely you thought when you're growing up in different trades,
(40:23):
different areas of you know, where you should study and
get your degree in to apply to some sort of
job or career. What do they do now?
Speaker 2 (40:31):
So I have the slightest idea, I know, I mean
in the next the baby's being born right now. Yeah,
I don't think there'll be a similar job, you know,
twenty five years from now, and.
Speaker 3 (40:44):
Then what does what does school look like? Too? Even
for my daughters? Right, so they're going to go to
college here in the next my older daughter in like
five years, six years, you go.
Speaker 2 (40:55):
To school actually because they're just going to implant things
into your brain and you'll be everything.
Speaker 3 (41:01):
Well, and that's that's the other that's the other kind
of concern with.
Speaker 2 (41:03):
The eyes between organic and inorganic, right yeah.
Speaker 3 (41:07):
No, well, just just AI itself is how that's regulated
in a matter for school where kids are not just
getting lazy and doing their studies or papers or something
and then just using AI to do all the you
know what I mean, right, because AI AI is still
not perfect, and AI is only as good as the
(41:28):
information that it gets its source from, which is the internet. Right.
But then where does the information from the internet come from? Right?
I was actually having this debate with my uncle this
last weekend. We're talking about what were we talking about?
Some sort of drug or pharmaceutical or something, and he's like, oh, well, yeah,
I've done the research. Oh no, eggs, organic eggs, organic
(41:52):
pasture raised eggs, and then the regular conventional bleached white eggs.
Right when you crack the eggs, what do you what
do you immediately notice when you have an organic pasture
raise egg and you get like the conventional bleached white
egg you crack it up and put in the pan.
What do you what do you know? I think one
smaller than the other. Typically, well you get dark orange
yolk yoke, right versus it's like pale. Okay, it's like
(42:15):
a pale And so my uncle and then my cousin
was talking about it. The nutrients are better in the organic. Yeah,
so well, my my one of my cousins he has.
Speaker 2 (42:26):
Either way, this is not a nutrition show, but.
Speaker 3 (42:30):
My cousin has some chicken. So he's like, I was like,
how how is it, you know, because he's starting to
get eggs and I was like how they taste? And
he's like, oh yeah, and I noticed much darker blah blah.
And then you know, his dad comes in and starts talking.
He's like, yeah, I did some research on it, and
there's it's negible. I'm like, well, why does it look different?
Then that doesn't make sense. He should be more utrient dense,
and he goes well, I was like, well, what does
your researcher from. He's like, oh, I used AI. Yeah,
(42:53):
I get that.
Speaker 2 (42:54):
AI can scour information in a blink of here's my
quick more information it's scouring was still put out there
by human well study in means.
Speaker 3 (43:07):
Or it could be or it could be like maybe
the FDA or some big agricultural congloments put right information
put in. There's so much in like eighty percent of
information is more on the conventional egg side versus the
organic reality is so it could be skewed again.
Speaker 2 (43:24):
AI replacing humanity is not happening in the short term,
you know, in the in the next twenty five to
fifty years, one hundred years, I hope the planet is
still here. And I'm not talking about you know, man,
global warning and all those things.
Speaker 3 (43:42):
I'm talking more.
Speaker 2 (43:43):
About armageddon, you know, war, famine, things of that nature.
But but again, the good news is is that how
we do things and what humans do for people, at
least for the next couple of decades, are to stay.
And we hope you give us a call for that.
(44:03):
No obligation, consultation or come to our seminar on March fourth.
See Us in the Human Form, Yes, see Us in
Human Form Live. You've been listening to John Scambraye to
Seppi Vescani. Have a wonderful Saturday and come back and
listen to us next weekend.
Speaker 3 (44:17):
I have a your weekend
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show.
I'm your co host, John Scambray, and I am here
with my partner this weekend to sub you Wisconsin. And
we are certified portfolio Managers, which means we're investment experts
and we love helping people who are about to retire
or are retired manage their money. As always, if you
(00:34):
want to get a hold of us for questions or
schedule a no obligation consultation, or better yet, register for
our March fourth seminar at Wood Creek Golf Club from
five point thirty to seven again on March fourth, which
is a Wednesday. Give us a call at nine one
six nine six seven thirty five hundred and we'll mention
(00:57):
that again later in the show and what you can
expect to get out of that food will be great,
information will be great, but learn more about that later
on in the show. First of all, if you haven't
tuned into us before, Giuseppe and I have been doing
this for a while, you could say almost fifty years combined,
(01:17):
me over thirty plus years, Giuseppe over sixteen.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Plus years, almost.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Twenty My goodness, and we're still spring chickens. That's what's great.
But honestly, experience, especially in times like right now, matter
because we've been hopefully educating the public, talking as much
as we can, putting out advice and ideas well, not advice,
(01:46):
but suggestions and ideas that exactly what is happening right
now would be happening. We started saying that this would
be a volatile year, albeit we thought it would be
a good year. Still think that, right, Yeah, not without
speed bumps, which we're not withsting out speed bumps. That's
a great way to put it. I talked a lot
about headwinds and tailwinds and speed bumps, and I said repeatedly,
(02:10):
look for these things to affect the profitability in your positions,
and you know, rebalance, you know, don't be afraid to
buy dips, don't be afraid to lock in you know,
some gains. And hopefully if you're not giving us a call,
if you're not a client already, you've been paying attention
(02:32):
and doing some of those things, and so.
Speaker 3 (02:35):
You can also, by the way, find out more information
about us on our website which you can go to
wisemoneyguys dot com, which currently is being revamped, so hopefully
pretty soon we'll have a new, fresh website, but in
the meantime you can find out more about us. There's
some tool you know, interesting tools in their retirement and calculators,
(02:58):
and then you can scroll down to those.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
Video there's educational videos on you know, how to dollar
cost average, how to do basic trades. There's a video
and a tutorial just about on every topic with respect
to financial services, including things like you know how much
debt you should have? Should you you know what what
what a mortgage cost you? As you said, calculators, but
(03:20):
there's newsletters and of course there's ways to just get
a hold of us from there as well, and also
there's our disclosures which we have to put up there
which just tell you a little bit more about our company,
which are at the bottom of the page. By the way,
the Wise Money Guys Show is brought to you by
One Source Wealth Management. That's our official SEC registered investment
(03:43):
advisory firm which is licensed three one nine zero seven
eight and keep in mind that there is no investment
that can't lose value. And I don't know how you
got me on this, but and past performance isn't a
guarantee of future result.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
I think that sounds I think the website. Yeah, the
website kicked off, that's what did it. We have We
have quite a bit, you know. I think we will
digest a little bit of what's going on with the
volatility that we've been what you're seeing recently going on,
a little bit of earnings, a lot of volatility in
the mag seven and some of the aid.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Software and tech that has just been getting hammered so
far this month. Crypt Bitcoin is absolutely getting hammered because
we've said and and and if you aren't aware, it
really is a risk asset. It is not a reserve currency.
(04:43):
It is not a stable investment. It is a risk asset.
And one of the first things people sell when there's
volatility is their highest risk assets. And guess what. Bitcoin
is one of the highest risk assets out there because
it's backed by nothing. It is nothing. So it always
(05:06):
cracks me up when people you know, or we read
or hear or watch on you know, uh, some of
the services that we as we watch. Yeah, I mean,
honest to God, and you get the people on there,
the sealers of the world, sailors. Yeah that, oh matter what,
put all your money in it.
Speaker 3 (05:27):
And my goodness, he's putting a lot of this, he's
put a lot of his company assets.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Well it's great if you made billions, you know, because
now you're only giving up some profit in the millions,
but you're still in the billions. Yeah, and so but
people you know buying it now, I don't think it's
I don't think it's at the bottom yet. And as
far as advice, which we always try to get on,
you know, just good principles and not telling you specifically
(05:53):
what investment to buy, but just good you know, investment
principles when it comes to managing your money. That that
we follow is you don't have to pick a bottom.
We made some changes to our stock portfolios this week,
and and you know, some we were selling, they weren't.
(06:13):
The two changes we made weren't selling at the very
top of what they had achieved. But still, I mean
great double digit returns on the things we sold, and
the two things that we replaced, the two stocks that
we were placed in our in our growth and our
income and growth portfolios weren't exactly at the bottom, although
(06:37):
one of them was was sand disc and it's it's
it's rallying up even though the market is down.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Now, yeah, you want to, you want the meat of it,
but more so you need to figure out it's risk management.
Really is. People will get into it because of stock
or cryptocurrency whatever, because of Hey, you know I saw
it or or I missed it. I missed the right
up last time it got meet up?
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Right?
Speaker 3 (07:00):
Now? You know I want to. I want to jump
into it, but you have to have a target for yourself.
When are you willing to take some profits off the
table or sell it? Right? What's your target? You bought
something for one hundred bucks and then it goes to
two hundred bucks? Is that enough? Does that meet your goals?
And then on the flip side, what's your risk management? Hey,
I bought it for one hundred bucks. If things don't
work out in my favor or doesn't pan out the
(07:22):
way I think it's going to pan out and it
starts going down, where do I where do I take
my losses? Right? You don't want a lot of times
people will get you know, in a situation or a
scenario where you're catching a falling knife and it goes
down and down, You're like, I'm just going to hold
on to it. Sometimes people just continue to add and
add and add. It could work for some stocks and
some strategies to continue to add and dollar cost average in,
(07:45):
but you have to really do your research and know
that it's you know, something that's not fundamentally going on
specifically with a company, and maybe it's some outside event
that is overreacting, but those you need to have a
risk management in place, right and you need to have
kind of your target on the top end, and you
have to have your risk your your risk line on
(08:05):
the bottom end to know when hey, this is enough,
this is going below or beyond my risk tolerance and threshold,
and I'm out and I'm looking for other opportunities out there.
It doesn't make any sense to get married to one
stock to think that that's going to be the home run.
There's thousands of companies out there to to invest in.
There's hundreds of different types of investments out there to
(08:26):
invest in.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
Well, if you see you know, and I'm thinking of
you know, a couple of days last week where the
market was substantially down, there were still companies that were up,
and especially some of the Dow Jones companies, some of
the more consumer staple type companies or things that people
need to have, you know, in our own portfolio for clients.
(08:47):
You saw Gilead, you know, was up, and then other
companies like Johnson and Johnson were up well, and bring
and you bring up a you bring up aerospace. There's
there's all kinds of sectors within each.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
And you're bringing up a good point. And what's happening.
What's happening and what we're seeing is there's a broadening
of the market. And we said, we were talked about
this in previous episodes.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
The last Vidia, Amazon, Google, Netflix, Tesla and Facebook and
Apple aren't gonna be you know, the way and just
the holy grail of making money this year. What there's
more companies they did. They did it for three years
in a row. So now it's time to pass on
the torch. And we're seeing a broadening, which is great.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
So you know the max seven of the S and
P five hundred, it's the other four hundred and ninety three.
So what we've been seeing is, you know, sectors specifically sectors,
like you're talking about communications, services, staples, energy, industrials, materials,
So those are all you off? Go ahead, what'd you
say in there? What communication? You know, staples, your avoid, industrials, materials, Nope,
(09:59):
and energy.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
I've loved the energy sector and have talked about it
for years on this radio show because again it the
world has to have it. There isn't anything we do
that you can't that you can't do it without energy.
Obviously in its different forms. You know, whether it's your
utilities at your house or your business, or whether it's
(10:25):
now powering data centers or you know, being able to
get from point A to point B and whatever transportation
mode you know, on and on and on. It just
goes up and down obviously with with with with the markets,
but never I mean, if you're in the right type
of companies, the right type of gas company, the right
(10:46):
type of oil company, the right type of you know,
different energy product, whether it's natural gas or companies goal
or nuclear supply equipment to energy companies, exactly right. I mean,
they're they're is always good investments to be had in
the energy sector. Now that doesn't mean take your portfolio
(11:07):
and put it all in energy because it is it
is volatile, but one of my favorite investments. I mean
it was volatile, but boy, I mean if you just
look at from when I first mentioned it probably five
years ago now on the radio, to where it is now.
You know, it was in the low teens and now
it's in the high twenties. I mean even since you
(11:30):
a T shirt, as they should, you made me a
T shirt as a joke. But I still like this investment.
Now the dividend isn't as great since the case is
gone because the price so literally doubled, doubled, but you're
buying it here. It's not as good. But we'll talk
more about you know, strategies and particular investments and our
(11:51):
thoughts on the economy, so on and so forth. And
you started to mention the broadening of the market and
and again when when tech has favored the market at people,
that's all they want to talk about, right, that's all,
you know, even our own clients they come in and go, hey,
should we should we add to this? And we say,
you know, no, we're sticking to your plan. We're sticking
(12:11):
to your portfolio because there will be times just like
this when you get bit if you chase you know,
uh a price of particular companies. And now we're seeing
really the broadening into smaller companies, small international, What are
some what are some of the companies.
Speaker 3 (12:30):
And how is the breath Actually, well, it's just some
of the you know, the sectors that I've already mentioned, communications, services, staples, energy, industrials, materials.
But then also there's been a shift to global equities
as well, so we're seeing a broadening out to you know,
international and global companies, not just US, along with other
(12:51):
sectors and then small caps. So smaller companies have had
a boost. Currently has been going through some volatility with
a market poollback right or what I mean to that,
But you've been seeing these smaller companies and more so
the value small cat value companies that have been coming
up as well, So you have a lot more choices
out there than just focusing on the max seven that's
(13:12):
been dragging the you know market up overall, and we'll
see if this continues on. I think overall that's better
for the market in the economy because it creates a
more fundamentally sound powl market rather than a handful of seven,
ten fifteen stocks that are really you know, the a
(13:35):
third or more of what the market is representative of.
So I think, you know, and how long how long
are the Max seven going to carry it? I mean
they've already had a run for three years, and I
think there's some realization coming into play of how much
investment has gone into AI. I mean recently Google came
out and.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
No profits, all expenses.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
Yeah, and Google came out and then just you know,
up to their cap back spending as far as what
they're putting into AI. So that's why you saw Google,
you know, this week take a little bit of a
hit with this volatility. It's when is it going to
actually turn into profit and is it soon enough? And
then also are they getting are they getting ahead of
(14:16):
themselves where you know, it can't be supported with all
these data centers and energy and infrastructure what have you,
because it's going to take time to build out. So
are all these different.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
Out going to take nuclear to power these data centers?
I mean there's there they can do enough refine of oil.
There's not enough infrastructure in place to to really keep
up with the demand for the power that these data
centers will take. It's really just nuclear that can keep
up with that demand currently and what a joke. It's
(14:47):
definitely not solar or wind that will you know, solve
any sort of energy shortfall because of data centers.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
So right, you know, part of the part of the
volatility you're seeing too is just we the sentiment has
been very bullish. Mean, there's a lot more optimistic and
positive traders on the market out there, and usually it's
a contrarian indicator saying that there's too many and so
once that starts calming down, then we're getting closer and
(15:18):
closer to this volatility and is pulled back to start
ending where it can flip around and start making its
way back up. And so that's where you look to, Hey,
if I've been heavy in some of the technology sector
because those were the previous winners, whether you've been in it,
or maybe you relate to the game and said I
need to get into it, or maybe you're seeing pulled
(15:38):
back now and saying like, well, maybe tech is gonna,
you know, have a year like it did in twenty
twenty four, and I want to ride that train again.
This is a good time where and we've talked about
before to rebalance, look at what's inside of your portfolio.
If you don't know, that's a good opportunity to call
guys like US nine one six nine six seven thirty
five hundred. But that's exactly can we do is look at,
(16:01):
you know, your overall portfolio, do an analysis, see what
you're in. But then more so, you know, put a
plan together if you don't have a plan, and then
make sure that those two things match up.
Speaker 2 (16:11):
You know, I started talking last week, and actually I
talked about this a lot, some of the mistakes that
people make when they're managing their own money. Sadly, some
of the mistakes that a lot of advisors make when
managing people's money. And nobody's perfect. There isn't a perfect system.
There isn't a perfect you know, advisory process. But you
(16:32):
try to get and and and try to establish and
stick to principles and strategies that work, you know, that
align with people's plans, as you said, and the reality
is right here. The mistakes that people make, this is
super important, is they try to time the market, so
you know, for whatever investments they have, they try to
(16:52):
get out at the very tippy tippy top and then
they're always holding on looking for more. That greed kicks
in or work. You know, once things go down, if
they have gotten out and have locked in profits, they
don't get back in. And so who did we have
just recently, I can't remember if it was a prospective
client or a current client, but they literally have been
(17:14):
keeping you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash
on the sideline and they just they just missed it
because they thought they could time a perfect bottom. You
don't have to you know, sell at the perfect top.
You don't have to buy at the perfect bottom to
make a lot of money in investments over you know,
(17:36):
any sort of normal period of time. And and people
just get you know, overly greedy or it. And and
the reality is the mistakes that you're going to make
right here are you probably already made them, not rebalancing,
not locking in some profit and then not buying you know, great,
(17:59):
call any names right here, because guess what, there's nothing
wrong with our economy. This sellof is is a normal
sort of market uh uh pull back, And it always
happens based on some sort of news. So the news
we've been talking about is there was going to be
another government shut down this year. There would be you know,
(18:23):
political ballot battles over the budget, check check the FOMC
and there you know mandate and how they approach you know,
interest rates as a result of inflation data. We've been
talking about these things. We've been telling people they're coming
(18:43):
and to properly diversify. And so I was we were
texting each other early this morning, you know, shortly after
the market opened that hey, good thing. Our clients have
fixed income alternatives, cash, real estate exposure, metal exposure, so
(19:04):
on and so forth, and not just stocks. You don't
need just stocks in your portfolio to make great returns
on your money. So please don't make more mistakes. Give
us a call at nine one, six ninety six, seven
thirty five hundred and let me mention again. You know,
(19:26):
we show people some of the things we actually have
in our client's portfolios. We we talk about the markets
and where we believe they're going and how you know,
a proper approach could help you not lose hundreds of
thousands or potentially make you hundreds of thousands over whatever
(19:49):
your your your your time horizon is. And you can
see that live on March fourth, from five thirty to
seven at Would Creek Golf Club that's a Wednesday. And
if you're way away from retirement or you're not currently
retired and you don't have an investment portfolio of any kind,
(20:14):
you probably shouldn't attend. But if you do and you're
concerned about, you know, continuing to have good years like
you may have had the last three, you definitely want
to be there.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
To have longevity within your portfolios, yeah, to not run
last throughout your retirement.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
The other thing we'll talk about, and I'm probably sharing
this with you right now, which you know we get
a lot and that we should be talking about it
more at our seminars is the question on again, if
you're about to retire and you have it, or you
are retired and you haven't started your social security, when
to take it? So we can definitely talk about that.
(20:54):
And then also the other thing that is often you know,
a question for a lot of people and prior to
seventy five, now should you convert to a Wroth? And
we've run dozens and dozens and dozens of calculations break
even analysis on social security because that's in our plan
(21:15):
Wroth conversion analysis, that's in our plans that answer those questions.
And when you work with us if you come to
that seminar, if you sit down for a no obligation consultation,
you become a client that's included in your financial plan,
which is included in your advisory fee. We don't charge
separate for planning. We only charge one fee for fiduciary
(21:39):
responsibilities to you. And I think we're probably, in my opinion,
and I try to be humble, I think we're the
best in the area. I really do. At the end
of the day, give us a call. You won't regret
registering for that seminar and coming in and sitting down
with us for a no obligation consultation. Again, the seminar
is on more Arch fourth. We feed you dinners included
(22:03):
you should be about to retire or are retired, and
the number is nine to one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred. Okay, you know we were talking about
broadening of the markets that we're seeing, you know, investment
dollars flow out of the tech names that have been
so profitable as far as trades over the last several years.
(22:27):
But really, don't don't forget that. There's as and I
think I mentioned it briefly, there's alternatives there's the fixed
income space, there's the real estate space, and we can
add and and and we think, you know, again, if
you have a basic goal and nothing unusual for although
(22:50):
we do have some people that have some unusual wealth
tied to things not in one of the five categories
that are very liquid stocks, bonds, real estate alternatives, and
and cash investments. You know, we have a client that
has a seven figure stamp collection, which you know blows
(23:12):
me away. But there's there's people that have silver. No, well,
gold has been collecting silver for for decades.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
Which has had a great run, but it has been
volatile along with gold recently.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
Yeah, been volatile. Gold and silver have been volatile. But
now I think it's me personally. I think it's a bible.
Speaker 3 (23:31):
They're always and they're always volatile. And we mentioned before,
you know, as volatile as stocks. Uh more actually yeah, more. Yeah,
it's got a misconception sold as you know, safe and
like put your money in gold and create safety because
who knows about the uncertain uncertainties of the market.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
I would say that's a lot smarter than thinking that
you're you're safer because you're putting your money in bitcoin. Right.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
No, but but The reality is, when you're looking at
a long, long term perspective, I think I ran it
for like twenty years. The volatility of gold has been
more so than stocks. So yeah, you put your portfolio
on a you know, in a stock portfolio or S
and P five hundred over twenty years versus gold, and
you're better off with a stock portfolio. Well, and who knows?
Speaker 2 (24:19):
I mean again, I started saying talking about gold, primarily
saying it would go to five thousand dollars an ounce.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
It did.
Speaker 2 (24:28):
I think over the next decade it'll be ten thousand
dollars an ounce.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
I mean again.
Speaker 2 (24:33):
Countries are trying to you know, shore up their currencies,
make their currencies more stable and lo and behold. How
do you do that? You tie it to a fixed,
shiny metal called gold. Now that doesn't mean you put
all your money in gold or silver, but I think
(24:54):
if you don't have gold or silver exposure, which again
we can help you with, you know, you should have
a percentage.
Speaker 3 (25:02):
We're not talking about actual hard hard gold or exposure.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
We can we can tie investments that are tied to
gold or silver, just like we can you know, get
investments that are tied to real estate and other alternatives
into your account that we manage. And so I think
this is a good time, you know, buy if you again,
you haven't had a gold or silver exposure in your portfolio.
Speaker 3 (25:30):
Did you want it?
Speaker 2 (25:30):
Buy it when when gold was at you know, fifty
four hundred dollars an ounce and now it's at forty
eight hundred ounce? Or did you want to buy silver
at one hundred almost one hundred and thirty dollars an
ounce and now it's at you know, seventy dollars an ounce.
Speaker 3 (25:42):
Crazy, So a matter of weeks, in a matter of weeks,
buy on these dips.
Speaker 2 (25:49):
And and then if you follow our rule of thumb
where you don't buy more than a five percent position,
let let it, you know, let other things run the
course before you rebalance.
Speaker 3 (26:03):
You know from there you'll be okay. Yeah, And it
has to it has to make sense, like we're we're mentioning,
you know, different sectors of the market or gold or silver.
So so take take some of this with a grain
of salt. We're just talking and in generality, but reality
is is, you know, we don't know who you are,
what your timeline is, what's your risk tolerance is, what
(26:25):
you know, if gold and silver, how much of it
makes sense in your portfolio? And that's why we say,
you know, the opportunities to give us a call to
have a no obligation consultation to come see us in
person at the March fourth you know workshop, a workshop
that we're going to have because then it gives an
opportunity to really uncover and look more specifically at the
(26:48):
different asset classes. Right, there's gold and silver, which is
the metals, there's other alternative investments, there's different stocks, sectors
of stocks. How much exposure do you have to different
asset classes? We still like bonds, don't forget bonds. How
you know how you know, how should it be constructed
based off of your plan. That's an individual thing and
(27:08):
that's what we work with our clients individually or the
families you know, at a time. We don't just put
together this portfolio and everybody gets the same portfolio, because
everybody's different. Ye, So just just keep that in mind.
But that's that's a crucial point to Seppie, because you know,
what we do is custom for our clients. Right.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
We don't just put you in a cookie cutter, you know,
basket of mutual funds, because we find that is the
worst diversification potentially out there when people just have different
brands of funds with different names as far as what
that fund is named, and then think they're diversified. We
find over and over again. Oh and my favorite is
(27:51):
that you know they're doing it for no cost. Mutual
funds ETFs, especially if they're actively managed mutual fund and ETFs,
we'll often have a fee embedded in them that could
be as much or more than what our fee is.
And you don't have a custom portfolio, and you probably
(28:13):
aren't diversified. And so if you're thinking you're saving money
by diversifying amongst different mutual fund or ETF brands, you
probably have expenses in there that you're not aware of.
And again, as j Seppi said, come in, let us
look at these things and just give you a second
(28:36):
opinion and show you what you may not know is
going on.
Speaker 3 (28:41):
And that's what I.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
Really like about our value proposition is because we take
a planning approach, because then that planning approach leads to
a custom portfolio where we do focus on diversification amongst
the different asset classes to get you to whatever your
minimum returns to objective are in the least risky way
(29:06):
that we can get you there. Now, that doesn't mean
there's no risk. It just means that, heck, if you
need a six seven eight percent return, that's going to
dictate what your portfolio looks like.
Speaker 3 (29:18):
If you need a.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
Ten eleven, twelve, thirteen percent return, that's an entirely different
portfolio and one that's going to have more risk than
the one that is only designed to make a six
seven eight percent you know, net return.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
So sometimes sometimes we'll come across clients or prospects that
all they need is even like six seven percent return
or less five percent, But then they're looking for and
they're like, well, my goal is I need to make
like at least ten or twelve percent a year. Why,
I mean, there are years you know that you know,
I've been, you know, having some client conversations and during
(29:54):
reviews and saying, you know, let's take a look at
last year. How did how did your overall port FO perform?
Has it lineup with the overall plan? Has there been
any changes? What's going on for this year in your
new term? Major things that are coming up in your life,
like purchases, things, to pay off or big changes and goals.
But last year was a great year, and you know,
(30:16):
they've outperformed the average return that we're trying to achieve. Great.
We didn't take any more risk in order to achieve
that greater return than what they need to achieve. And
we'll take that because there's gonna be some years that
might be a little bit off. But but what you
don't want to do is turn the dial up and
then increase a risk for the sake of just going
(30:37):
after a higher return because you're seeing, oh, the stock
market held all time high. Oh and Vidio hit this,
Oh this this stock Palenteer super microcomputer or whatever, Silver
hits you know, triple digits or whatever the case, and
you just want to go and try and run. Yeah.
But interesting fact, fun fact, a fun fact. Yeah, a
Time magazine fact. Fun fun f you win, what'd you say,
(31:02):
fund or fun time Time magazine. So the Time curse
hits the mag seven because Time magazine came out and
the whole thing about that it's over. It's Time magazine
magazine says it's over. It's over. No, it's it's usually
you know, it's contralling. Is there always wrong That's what
my sarcasm was. Yeah. Usually the usually the cover of
(31:24):
the magazine will have something, and if it's dealing with
like the economy or some sort of sector in the
stock market, usually the opposite happens. And they had a
they had a cover it said AI Race, AI Race
now Game of Thrones mag seven competing hard and so
and and now that's what we're seeing. We're seeing Obviously
(31:45):
there's been competition. I think there's a new new one
that kind of upended some companies. Anthropic and that one.
Speaker 2 (31:53):
Yes, and more more so because I'll mention something else
about it, more.
Speaker 3 (31:58):
Of the of the legal it's kind of turning turning
the legal sector or job market. It's kind of turning
that around. Whereas you know, all the AI stuff's been
really hitting the software engineers and programmers and what have you.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
What we're gonna say about Anthropic, I was just gonna go, well,
it makes me think that, you know again, talking about
all this AI stuff and how that led you know,
the Microsofts and the Googles and all of them to
double digit run ups.
Speaker 3 (32:27):
You know.
Speaker 2 (32:27):
The thing is and and the conversation around is robots
and artificial intelligence going to replace humans, And the reality
is it will never replace humans, right because it doesn't
have emotion. It doesn't have emotion, it doesn't have a conscious,
that doesn't have a soul. And so people need, you know, empathy,
(32:49):
People need somebody who cares about their their financial lives,
who cares about their personal lives, depending on what your
what your role is to families that to serve. And
the reality is is that they also computers will never
have instinct, right, It's just on and off switches. You know,
(33:14):
they're there, they're zeros in ones. That's all a computer does. Now,
it may get to the point and I believe supercomputers
or quantum computing has surpassed the you know, the electrical
chemical reactions that happen in the human brain by now
being able to do those on and off calculations and
(33:34):
the trillions of transactions per second. But the reality is,
artificial intelligence, robots, computers will never replace humanity. So if
you're thinking the end all be all is just that,
oh great, you know this is going to replace everything.
You know, my grandkids will be out of jobs, so
(33:57):
on and so forth. No, it will increase productivity, it'll
make us more efficient, but it will never replace us
and being able to have that human connection.
Speaker 3 (34:09):
Well, it's huge, it's a it's a big topic. I mean,
I just had this yesterday with a review probably ten minutes.
We were talking about this on pros and cons and
what we think is gonna how it's gonna unfold. But yeah,
I'll hear your ideas and then we can we can
chat back and forth and figure it out.
Speaker 2 (34:24):
Let's mention our number and the seminar one more time
for people who are retired or about to retire that
are concerned about their investments. Well, even if you're not concerned,
you just want to see why our mousetrap is better,
and we believe it is. We believe it'll be time
well spent. It's on March fourth, from five thirty to
seven at Wood Greek Golf Club called nine one, six
(34:47):
ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. So I was saying,
how you know, AI computers, robotics, all of that will
increase productivity, but will never replace the hu human condition,
the human soul, the human instinct, you know, the human empathy,
so on and so forth.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
So I agree, I agree. I guess the concern is
what aspect of the human is it going to replace?
And how much of is it going to replace? Right?
Like we're like I was mentioning before you're seeing and
I like, I have a chat with some of my
cousins and they're from other financial advisors to the financial
technology industry, within the within Silicon Valley and banking, and uh,
(35:31):
they're actually just chatting about it this morning. And one
of my cousins says that, you know, one of his
friends that works at Meta, he's seeing a lot of
just like the lower level program software engineers, they're just
getting let go, right because AI is replacing them. Right.
So it's it'll be interesting and it's hard to come
(35:52):
up with the answer of Okay, well then what replaces it?
Or what do those people now do and look for
a career, right, And so that's the scary part. But
what we can do is look back in history and
look back at all technological advancements, right, major technological advancements
and time and how society and life existed in jobs
(36:15):
that were existing back then. Like an elevator, right, there
used to be a guy that you'd have to go
in the elevator and there was an elevator operator.
Speaker 2 (36:23):
Well, don't forget, there was lamp lighters, right, people would
go around and light the fires and all of the
gas lamps.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Right. So all those things and then they went away.
Now that's pretty simple, right, But then it just continues
to move on.
Speaker 2 (36:34):
We had the closest thing is the Internet. Just right,
we had the Internet made commerce definitely a lot different
than right, we only had going somewhere physically to buy
something physical. And the Internet, you know, created a whole
new world of jobs.
Speaker 3 (36:54):
Well, and restaurants, right, because now you can DoorDash, yes,
as you have if you wanted to go out totally
went out to eat right, right, and now you're like, hey,
I feel like such and such food, And now you said,
well we can just eat at home and door dash
it right, And you have to. I think the big
key is that you have to find a way to
adapt to it because if you don't, then you get
left behind. Right. So the brick and mortar store like
(37:16):
you just brought up on e commerce, if they're just
continuing to rely on walk in customer traffic to buy
their goods products off the shelves. And now you have
the Amazons and all these other stores that are adapting
to shipping, you know, in the same day or next
day delivery on their goods or curb side pickup and
(37:37):
what have you. And you don't do that and you're
not adapting to it, then yeah, you're going to get
left behind. So I think part of it is how
can you best adapt to this change? But it will
be interesting to see, you know, is how many industries
and sectors out there where AI can or robotics or
the combination of both can replace the human and it
(38:00):
either is the opportunity for that human to now adapt
and tweak but still stay in the SA industry or
completely wipe out Like my father had a tile of
marble business, right a trade. YEA hard to think about that.
A robot's going to go ahead and replace somebody who
can do you know, tile or marble or grantite or
whatever that's that's going to be that. But I saw
(38:21):
that's going to be a way off. But I saw,
well you would think, but I saw literally a couple
months ago on some Instagram or whatever, that there's a
machine that literally goes row bi row, puts the fin
set and then behind it lays a tile exactly and
has lasers that just calculates everything and it tiles a
whole whole entire floor. Right, So maybe it's okay, it'll
(38:44):
do simple pattern and now now the tile setter and
the contractor is going to be left up to more
custom you know, batique type jobs. But then maybe they
catch up to that. So do they still tweak it
and now do you just have an operator of that machine. Yeah,
it'll be interesting to see how how certain certain certain jobs,
(39:06):
certain trades that get replaced, and how do you adapt
to that.
Speaker 2 (39:10):
Yeah, I think it's there is a a definitely a
considerable change to the real simple, non highly skilled right jobs,
especially you know, agriculture, maybe maybe tiling things of that nature,
(39:33):
and then coming but maybe not immediately, but some of
the routine procedures that that we have, I think, yeah,
I think all of that will be robotic assessed. At
least we have we already have robotic assisted. I wonder
(39:53):
you know, at some point will probably just be fully robotic.
You just kind of program and you stand in the
background and see it be done really right.
Speaker 3 (40:00):
Yeah, so's it'll be interesting to see how that is.
And then yeah, what do kids, what do kids like?
My kids? Right, my two daughters are eleven and twelve.
I'm sorry, there'll be eleven and thirteen here pretty soon.
What do they study? Do they what do they get into? Right?
Because some of the things that maybe I thought, or
you definitely you thought when you're growing up in different trades,
(40:23):
different areas of you know, where you should study and
get your degree in to apply to some sort of
job or career. What do they do now?
Speaker 2 (40:31):
So I have the slightest idea, I know, I mean
in the next the baby's being born right now. Yeah,
I don't think there'll be a similar job, you know,
twenty five years from now, and.
Speaker 3 (40:44):
Then what does what does school look like? Too? Even
for my daughters? Right, so they're going to go to
college here in the next my older daughter in like
five years, six years, you go.
Speaker 2 (40:55):
To school actually because they're just going to implant things
into your brain and you'll be everything.
Speaker 3 (41:01):
Well, and that's that's the other that's the other kind
of concern with.
Speaker 2 (41:03):
The eyes between organic and inorganic, right yeah.
Speaker 3 (41:07):
No, well, just just AI itself is how that's regulated
in a matter for school where kids are not just
getting lazy and doing their studies or papers or something
and then just using AI to do all the you
know what I mean, right, because AI AI is still
not perfect, and AI is only as good as the
(41:28):
information that it gets its source from, which is the internet. Right.
But then where does the information from the internet come from? Right?
I was actually having this debate with my uncle this
last weekend. We're talking about what were we talking about?
Some sort of drug or pharmaceutical or something, and he's like, oh, well, yeah,
I've done the research. Oh no, eggs, organic eggs, organic
(41:52):
pasture raised eggs, and then the regular conventional bleached white eggs.
Right when you crack the eggs, what do you what
do you immediately notice when you have an organic pasture
raise egg and you get like the conventional bleached white
egg you crack it up and put in the pan.
What do you what do you know? I think one
smaller than the other. Typically, well you get dark orange
yolk yoke, right versus it's like pale. Okay, it's like
(42:15):
a pale And so my uncle and then my cousin
was talking about it. The nutrients are better in the organic. Yeah,
so well, my my one of my cousins he has.
Speaker 2 (42:26):
Either way, this is not a nutrition show, but.
Speaker 3 (42:30):
My cousin has some chicken. So he's like, I was like,
how how is it, you know, because he's starting to
get eggs and I was like how they taste? And
he's like, oh yeah, and I noticed much darker blah blah.
And then you know, his dad comes in and starts talking.
He's like, yeah, I did some research on it, and
there's it's negible. I'm like, well, why does it look different?
Then that doesn't make sense. He should be more utrient dense,
and he goes well, I was like, well, what does
your researcher from. He's like, oh, I used AI. Yeah,
(42:53):
I get that.
Speaker 2 (42:54):
AI can scour information in a blink of here's my
quick more information it's scouring was still put out there
by human well study in means.
Speaker 3 (43:07):
Or it could be or it could be like maybe
the FDA or some big agricultural congloments put right information
put in. There's so much in like eighty percent of
information is more on the conventional egg side versus the
organic reality is so it could be skewed again.
Speaker 2 (43:24):
AI replacing humanity is not happening in the short term,
you know, in the in the next twenty five to
fifty years, one hundred years, I hope the planet is
still here. And I'm not talking about you know, man,
global warning and all those things.
Speaker 3 (43:42):
I'm talking more.
Speaker 2 (43:43):
About armageddon, you know, war, famine, things of that nature.
But but again, the good news is is that how
we do things and what humans do for people, at
least for the next couple of decades, are to stay.
And we hope you give us a call for that.
(44:03):
No obligation, consultation or come to our seminar on March fourth.
See Us in the Human Form, Yes, see Us in
Human Form Live. You've been listening to John Scambraye to
Seppi Vescani. Have a wonderful Saturday and come back and
listen to us next weekend.
Speaker 3 (44:17):
I have a your weekend
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Kingdom of Fraud
It’s the unlikeliest of criminal partnerships: a devout polygamist from an insular Utah sect joining forces with a shadowy Armenian tycoon from LA. The result - a billion dollar fraud conspiracy. In Kingdom of Fraud, investigative reporter Michele McPhee traces the origins of the extraordinary alliance between Jacob Kingston and Levon Termendzhyan. Together, the two men trigger the largest tax investigation in American history and weave around themselves a web of dirty cops, influential political relationships and transnational money laundering. All this is set against the backdrop of Jacob Kingston’s clan – The Order. A powerful and secretive polygamist organization in Salt Lake City. To whom Jacob is desperate to prove his worth. Kingdom of Fraud is produced by Novel for iHeart Podcasts. For more from Novel, visit https://novel.audio/. You can listen to new episodes of Kingdom of Fraud completely ad-free and 1 week early with an iHeart True Crime+ subscription, available exclusively on Apple Podcasts. Open your Apple Podcasts app, search for “iHeart True Crime+, and subscribe today!