December 17, 2025 • 43 mins
2026 is coming... Are you ready? Hosts John and Guiseppe take you through the strategies and variations available for a successful portfolio in the next year. Plus, the Federal Reserve meeting, Boeing, and ETFs vs Direct Investments. Happy Holiday season from The Wise Money Guys.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Welcome back to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show. I'm
your co host John Scammer. I'm here with my partner
Giuseppe Visconti, and we are certified portfolio managers that specialize
in helping people who are retired are about to retire
manager their money. As always, if you like our show,
give us a call to arrange a no obligation consultation,
or ask questions, or for any reason for that matter,
(00:35):
just to say hi, I guess our number is nine
one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. Again that
numbers nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
One of the reasons why you might want to call
Jusepe is because you know, at the end of the year,
certain portfolio strategies become more prevalent than other times of
(00:56):
the year. Certainly, if you have positions that either have
a loss or large gains and maybe you're out of balance,
maybe those positions now you know, the ones that have
large gains are too much of your portfolio, and the
ones that have losses aren't enough or aren't the right position,
(01:19):
or should be removed. And so looking at the tax
consequence of your portfolio and your strategy, you only have,
you know, here a couple of more weeks left, which
I can't even believe. I mean, it was just two
years ago ago that you that you you joined me
(01:39):
and and and we we added you to the radio show.
And here we are definitely both balder. I'm a little
bit thinner than I was two years ago. You're a
little bit thinner than you were two years ago. But
but nevertheless, Uh, it's import or to set yourself up
(02:02):
at the end of the year to kick yourself off
in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Yeah, I think you're talking about tax loss harvesting and
rebalancing exactly.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
And so many people are afraid to, especially in their
taxable accounts, you know, liquid data position that might have
gains in it, because they just don't want to pay
any sort of tax or.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
Vice versa, sell something that has losses. But they're like,
I know it's coming back, I'm going to hold on
to it. Oh that's my favorite. That's my favorite. But
this is a good reason why you can sell it.
Doesn't mean that you have to not ever invest in
it again, but you can get rid of it, capture
the losses, offset some of the gains that maybe you
have throughout the year, just to benefit and improve a
(02:44):
little bit. You know what you're ten eighty nine is
going to show as far as at the end of
the year for taxes.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Yeah, And I bet you, like any year, the high
flyers of this year aren't necessarily going to be the
high flyers of next year. I mean, are we going
to get a thousand percent more growth in video?
Speaker 4 (03:02):
Is not going to be important right here?
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Are we going to get another you know, one hundred
percent growth in in Google? And you know, so on
and so forth. I mean Apple this time at points
of this year was down into the one eighties. Now
it's too eighty. It was lackluster, right, And so the real,
the real thing beyond rebalancing is also you know, does
(03:25):
your investments now that maybe it's been a year, maybe
it's been two years, maybe it's been since twenty twenty
two that you've actually looked at your portfolio to see
if it matches your goals and objectives. And I think
twenty twenty six is going to be definitely different. I
think this year was the year of the AI chip.
(03:46):
I think next year is going to be the year
of robotics. You know, uh, power for data centers still
data data center infrastructure, software to run these different you know,
supercomputers and all those things, automation, you know, many many things.
Speaker 3 (04:07):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
I think there's a lot of opportunity and a lot
of the things that Yeah, I got some attention in
this new industrial revolution we're in, but they didn't get
anywhere near what the chip, right, the A m d s,
the NVIDIAs, the Taiwan semiconductors and anybody mentioning AI. I
(04:27):
think that's over for next year. I don't think you're
going to be able to just go, you know, oh
we're meta Facebook and we're gonna we're gonna invest into
AI and your your your stock goes from three hundred
to six hundred. I think that that plays over.
Speaker 4 (04:44):
So for Kentucky Fried Chicken, then we're gonna we're.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
Introducing ordering and so now Kentucky Fried Chicken stock which
is part of Pizza Hut and so on and so forth. Yeah,
I think yeah, it's young or Dard and one or
the other. But my point is is that what were
the darlings this year aren't necessarily going to be the
(05:07):
darlings next year.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
And well, I mean, if you look at it the
returns of some of these darlings last year compared to
this year, I think last year was actually better than
this year, and primarily because we had the big dip
in April in May. Right, And if you look at
the S and P five hundred comparative to what it
did in twenty three and twenty four, I mean, yes,
it's positive, but it's nothing like what it did in
(05:31):
twenty three and twenty four.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
Yeah, I mean overall the S and P, I mean,
barring anything crazy with the FED. Right, So, just from
a which is next week, from a news perspective, we've
got our economy perspective. We have the FED, you know,
looking at interest rates again, which every month or every
other month when this happens, you know, I get a
(05:54):
little vomit in my mouth just because I'm so sick
of the FED and the FED having the power that
they have. Do I think they need to remain independent
of the executive branch, Yes.
Speaker 3 (06:08):
But I think they I think they need to go
back to the old school days, whether or not anti commo, No, No,
it's just they're not productivity.
Speaker 4 (06:17):
No, they're just not commenting.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
And going out, you know, and given their explanations or
opinions or you know, it's like they comment.
Speaker 4 (06:27):
I was just listening to.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
Radio and I forget who was but they were charting
it and they said, you know, the markets are betting.
At one point, it was like eighty ninety percent of
another rate cut in December. But then between you know,
a two to three week period, there was FED presence
that came out and were interviewed or comment commentated, either
(06:49):
on you know, the TV or social media or whatever.
And from all of that commentary, right, it went from
like eighty ninety percent down to like thirty percent. Now
it's back up to like eighty percent. It's it's crazy.
So I think going back to the old school ways
where we don't need to hear every little thought that's
(07:11):
coming out of a FED president right at any given
time and any point, at any point in the week,
just have the FED meeting, maybe there's a you know,
and then they have the meetings afterwards where they interview
Jerome Powell and the committee and what have you.
Speaker 4 (07:26):
And that's it, and then we wait on to the
next next meeting.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Well, and if you think about it, how long has
this mantra? I don't even know what a mantra technically is.
I mean that the Federal Reserve Board and its monetary
policy is given authority through congressional acts and laws. And
so now this this whatever, this this that, Oh, you know,
(07:51):
our mantra is two percent inflation year over year as
far as price increases and full employment. What does that
even mean? I mean, if you're going to have a
central bank that's part of trying to control your economy,
then the only thing they should be trying to do
(08:12):
is grow your economy. Their mantra should be pro growth,
that's it. It shouldn't be inflation. It shouldn't be unemployment
or full employment, because if your economy is growing and booming,
guess what you'll have full employment, you'll have low inflation,
(08:32):
you'll have wealth creation, people be able to buy house,
you know, on and on and on and on. So
this mantra of you know, oh, we're we're looking to
crush the economy to get inflation down to two percent
and make sure unemployment and it doesn't go hand in
hand and unemployment remains low or therefore you have full employment.
(08:54):
Makes no sense because if you make it so people
can't afford to do things well, then companies profits are
going to go down. And if companies profits go down,
guess what they do. They don't hire and they lay off,
and therefore you won't have full employment. So the mantra
of the FED needs to be completely revamped, rewritten. They're
(09:19):
One of the main things is they shouldn't be a
political body where they give these testimonies, you know too
mainly to the media. Now now they don't even give
testimony any worthwhile Texel, Yeah, it's it's not a fourth
branch of the government. And so I got off of
a tangent. And and really let's circle back on some
(09:41):
of the things where we'll we'll talk about throughout the show,
which is we've touched upon some strategy are are ready,
which is to rebalance, you know, now before the year
is up.
Speaker 4 (09:53):
Look at tax loss harvicing, yep.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
Tax loss harvesting, potentially locking in some gains that you
might not get any higher than they already are, especially
if you have chip the chips up that that have
just boomed inside of funds. And in fact, if you
have funds mutual funds and you've got hundreds of thousands
to millions of dollars, why that would be my first question.
(10:20):
I think you've graduated beyond the need for mutual funds.
But really strategy wise, and we'll keep talking about this
throughout the show, is you know, really positioning yourself from
you know, updating your plan, having your your your your
risk being in alignment with your goals and objectives, and
(10:42):
and really repositioning.
Speaker 4 (10:44):
And your portfolio to be aligned with your plans.
Speaker 3 (10:46):
So if you haven't had a plan or you haven't
reviewed your plan a long time and you think there
needs to be some updates and changes, then you should
do that with your plan and then you look at
your portfolio and your assets and say, hey, is this
lined up with my plan or my way off?
Speaker 2 (10:59):
And by the way, before we go to break, if
you call us now for not now, I mean we're
closed the next five minutes, call us in the next
five minutes. But if you give us a call to
set a no obligation consultation, we'll review these things for
you and there's no charge to do that. There's no pressure,
we'll take a look at what you've done. We'll give
(11:21):
you a second opinion. If you don't have a plan
in place, or it's been a long time since you
have at least done a retirement plan, we'll do that
for you. We'll give we'll send you a questionnaire which
will start your draft of your financial plan, and we'll
get that done for you as part of the no
(11:41):
obligation consultation. And I highly suggest you do that while
there's still time before the year's up. So keep listening
to the wise money guys. And we were talking about
the FED and some of the strategies for the end
of the year that are that are pretty important. We
didn't mention the meeting is actually next week. You know,
(12:03):
I think it's going to be a quarter Some think
that it might not be anything, and I guess it's
just because there's a lot of disagreement now amongst the
committee members, the Federal Open Market Committee members that you know,
some think there should be cuts and more drastic and
(12:26):
really Jerome Powell himself seems to think there shouldn't be
any because inflation is running at about you know, a
little over a three percent. By measures that we talked
about last week. You can't even trust the data. So
whether it's CPI or p p PI or what's the
PC personal consumption expenditures. That's Jerome Powell's I guess barometer
(12:53):
that he really likes to use, you know, which is
running a little over three percent. But again, I think
they're focused on the wrong things, the wrong things. If
you if you're worried about inflation, well don't keep destroying
the dollar. You know the real reason why there's inflation
is because it takes more dollars against other currencies to
(13:17):
buy the same good or service. If you strengthen your
dollar and it takes less dollars, well, guess what. That's
the true meaning of inflation. If it takes less dollars. Something.
Raise minimum wage, well right, that'll that'll solve everything. Just
make it, you know, fifty dollars an hour minimum wage
(13:38):
to you know, dig a ditch, or flip burgers or
or or or whatever to change a tire, work on
a house, you name it. Well, fifty dollars an hour
if you got skills is pretty much going wage these days.
These days, skilled labor I mean depends, I mean we're
little even higher. If you're like electrician or a welder.
Speaker 3 (14:02):
Or out here at least in California for sure, but yeah,
another state's mid America probably that's probably too high.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
But either way, I mean, so the FEDS, the FOMC
meeting next week, the FRB bet A Reserve Board Chairman
Jerome Powell is going to make a decision as far
as FED funds, which might even have the opposite impact.
So a lot of the FED cuts if the industry,
(14:30):
especially the powers that really control the bulk of the
wealth in investments in banking, you know, don't really feel
it was the right move. Interest rates could actually go
higher because right the long term treasury, the thirty year
(14:50):
treasury could sell off and then you'll see the yields
actually go higher. Same with the tenure and mortgages tend
to follow the ten year treasury. So treasury yields could
actually go higher because money comes out of treasuries, goes
into cash, or goes into stocks, or goes into something
(15:12):
at real estate, and then you see a yield spike
in the treasury market and mortgages and i e. You know, loans.
Speaker 4 (15:23):
Jerome, Jerome Pow would hate to see that.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
Yeah, no, he would love to see.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
Especially especially if he well it depends, but yeah, that
would that would if that if that were to take
place after they cut rates the third time this year
as they did last year. Yeah, that's just going to
put a world to hurt.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
Yeah. So as far as the economy next year, I
mean this this year was a pretty darn good year.
I mean I see based on just really the momentum
we have and the growth that we do have, and
and and now that now that data is coming in
about fact is being built, you know, manufacturing increasing here,
(16:04):
hiring increasing to the manufacturing sector of just about every
type of good and service. I mean, we could be
in for a major economic expansion in the US from
a resurgence of you know, manufacturing being done here of
(16:24):
goods and services. I mean you look at things like Boeing,
you know, Boeing just I mean they actually forecasted for
a law, you know, and it's been a long time,
more seven thirty seven sales and more seven eighty seven
sales than they anticipated, and less problems and less problems.
(16:46):
Now that that seven thirty seven max eight whatever it
was that was so yesterday.
Speaker 4 (16:53):
No, there was something else with a seven eighty seven.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
More recently, Well, don't remember, don't you remember, Like I
don't know if it was the seven eighty seven, but
really a door blew off.
Speaker 4 (17:02):
You know, that's kind of scared to death. That's kind
of important, especially flying out next week.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
But that's that's that's the blue chip of blue chips, right,
I mean Boeing, it's like ib well, I.
Speaker 5 (17:19):
Think it's more of an icon of of of of
the US, right, That's what I'm saying, because it's either
Boeing or air Bus, and you're flying on.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
Air Bus is a foreign competitor, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (17:32):
And you're flying on one of those planes.
Speaker 3 (17:36):
But I think I think as long as they continue
to learn from the mistakes and build quality products like
they used to way back when when it was ran
by literally engineers. Their their executive team was engineers back then.
Until the eighties, McDonald douglas, you know, merged with them
even though it looked like they bought them, and then
(17:58):
McDonald douglas ran it, ran it based off of an
Excel spreadsheet and just look at profits. Well, this is
why you have this is why you have this is
part of the reason why you have those problems with
the seven thirty seven and seven eighty seven, right, because you.
Speaker 2 (18:10):
Can't do cost cutting measures on safety when it comes
to flying people places, right.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
Right, So some of them they just have at some
point in time, as things change and things evolve and
technology evolved, sometimes you just have to come up with
a new design. But what they've been doing is it've
been taking an old design and then retrofitting it and
putting new, new pieces and new technology on old design.
Speaker 2 (18:32):
If that wasn't a good strategy, then the nine to
eleven wouldn't be a good car, because the nine to
eleven is the same car. I know, I'm going on
a segwe you calm down now, you're just saying that
they're just, you know, no, but continuing with design over
and over.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
Not true, Not true, because the nine to eleven, how
much bigger is a current portion nine to eleven to
a nineteen eighties it's definitely elevanded. Well, the footprints way bigger,
the footprint radig So that's the thing that sevent eighty seven.
The heights, the heights of the clearance from the wing
(19:06):
to the to the tarmac has been the same. They
needed to redesign that whole plane to make it higher
to fit bigger engines, but they didn't. That's why they That's.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
Another sector that I think you're going to see massive
changes too. In fact, I was watching a story on
the flight the Revolution and flight like drones and personal
drones and no now fully autumn, not even drones fully
artificial intelligence automated combat of jet planes where you know,
(19:42):
the thing about a drone is somebody's still behind the controls.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
Well, I was talking about personal personal passengers. That's going
to be a huge I mean, you look at whether
it's Joby Joby's Sargey boy Archer.
Speaker 4 (19:57):
You know, I think je jettis inner Jet something like that.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
I know who you're talking about. But I think the
way I think military but also personal transportation is going
to drastically change. I think the robo transportation sector is
going to boom starting. You know, I have not yet.
I have talked to friends who have been and they're like,
(20:25):
it's it's bizarre, you know it. But once you're not
paying attention to.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
Have friendship with yours and you're like, oh, yeah, it's cool.
I have friends in San Francisco and they use it
all the time. Way mow, Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's just
a car with a bunch of sensors and cameras and stuff,
and it's just way through.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
It's it's so crucial to rebalance and redeploy your capital.
I mean, if you want to see you know, massive
growth or growth in your portfolio. The things that we're
talking about this morning is what it's going to be
the next wave of just gigantic gains from you know,
(21:06):
revolutionizing just about anything that we do. And and so
I think we're at just a pivotal, crucial point from
financial services perspective that you know, it's really going to
take some skill and wherewithal and and forethought to basically
(21:30):
analyze and decide, you know, how to address that. So
many people wish would it could have should have right
invested into the Internet revolution, and they didn't. Well, now
here we are. We're in the next industrial revolution and
(21:51):
there's just going to be trillions of dollars to be made.
And it's a proven fact that people who work with
professional like you and I make far more money over
time and on average than they do without the help
and support and knowledge and skills of people like Giuseppe
(22:13):
and I who've been in the industry and have been
at the forefront of some of these things, and I'll
mention some of the ones that I started talking about
five six years ago and where those are today as
far as where you know, big big money was made
this year still will be important next year. But I
(22:33):
think a lot of the you know, the mag seven,
I think we'll see hopefully a little more broadening of
that to where, of.
Speaker 4 (22:42):
Course it's not just dependent upon them doing well.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
Yeah, but if you look at the S and P
five hundred, you know, the S and P five hundred
basically year to date here in December is up sixteen
point six percent year to date. And then you look at,
you know, our two main model portfolios, one which really
(23:06):
takes stocks from the S and P five hundred and
then on a monthly basis is rebalance, where we select
the model that we created, that Giuseppe created, selects on
a monthly basis to potentially rebalance the top ten or
what we feel or the top ten stocks based on
(23:28):
the parameters that Giuseppe built and puts into the model
out of the S and P five hundred companies. And
if we look at what that's done compared to what
the S and P five hundred has done. The S
and P five hundred, as I said, was up sixteen
point six and the model portfolio this year of the
(23:53):
S and two ten with ten stocks is up thirty
six percent year today. Now we always need to mention
past per four its is not a guarantee of future results.
But my point is is I think it's going to
be even more of a challenge.
Speaker 3 (24:08):
And by the way, there's no MAG seven names within
those ten nuys.
Speaker 2 (24:13):
Isn't that interesting? So the MAG seven really is what
has fueled almost I would say eighty percent of the nasdaqs.
Speaker 3 (24:23):
Well, it's just these growth a little more than a
third of the waiting of S and P five hundred.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
Yeah, but if you look at the return contributed of
those seven or ten stocks, I mean it's like eighty
percent of the return. You pull out any of the
MAG seven and the MAG ten's returns out of the
Nasdaq one hundred or the S and P five hundred,
and now all of a sudden, you know you're not
at sixteen percent in the S and P five hundred anymore.
(24:49):
And here here's here's what's just super impressive. The S
and P ten model doesn't include any of the MAG
seven stocks, But yeah, it doubled the performance year to date,
more than doubles more than doubled the year to date
performance of the index the S and P five hundred.
(25:10):
So if you're thinking the equal.
Speaker 3 (25:13):
Weight just for reference, meaning that if you didn't put
more of an emphasis on the MAG seven or any
one name the equal weights and P five hundred index
fund year today is up under ten percent nine point
five percent for example.
Speaker 4 (25:30):
So that's the difference between the.
Speaker 3 (25:31):
Waiting of the MAG seven, right, which is up would
you say sixteen point six versus nine point five right?
Speaker 2 (25:39):
Yeah, So if you're thinking you you're doing going to
do this part time, meaning or or you know, I'm
just going to throw my money into mutual funds and
I'm going to be fine next year and the year
after and so on and so forth. He mite. But
(26:00):
wouldn't you want somebody liked SEPPI and I in your
corner to do it for you instead, so that you
can enjoy the wealth that you created.
Speaker 3 (26:10):
Or maybe you've built your portfolio and originally was all
mutual funds and you've gotten to a point where it's
built big enough, or now you have a larger substantial
account size or you can go out and buy the
direct investments yourself and create your own mutual fund. When
you're starting your own account, you have maybe ten twenty
thousand mutual funds make sense. ETFs make sense because that's
(26:33):
the best way to diversify your assets when you're working
with a smaller account size. But now if you've amassed
two hundred and fifty five hundred seven fifty eight million
dollars in the account and you still have these ETFs
and funds, not to say that they're bad, because we
like some of them and use some of the.
Speaker 2 (26:52):
Portfolios and some alternative mutual funds.
Speaker 3 (26:56):
Yeah, but now you can actually create your own per
se mutual fund, right because now you can have direct
investment of individual stocks. And here's here's one key of
well why would I want that? Well, it's transparent. Number two.
You you could have put your money in a S
and P five hundred index fund and you're up sixteen
point six or you could have been more selective and
(27:18):
figured out what individual stocks would I want to own,
kind of like what we have in our model, right,
and you're up thirty six percent. On the other side
of things, you know, I just had a client review
meeting last week and they said, you know, there's a
few names in there that we don't agree.
Speaker 4 (27:34):
With the businesses the companies for whatever reasons.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
Right, is it possible for us to like substitute those
names out and be invested in something else? One hundred percent?
Because it's essentially your mutual fund, you could do whatever
you want, right, You don't have to own this, that
or the other thing. You can create it and customize
it based off of you know, your goals, your timeline,
your risk tolerance, and then also you know you're to
(28:00):
your liking in regards to you know, maybe things don't
align with you morally or politically or whatever the case
may be.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
Yeah, I mean the reality is that our clients know
what they're invested in and why we have them in it.
We just don't blindly put people in things that they
don't understand what it is and why it makes sense
for their portfolio.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
I got a great example I just talked to. One
of my old counterparts is also a financial advisor, works
for another firm, a large firm, and they use a
lot of SMAs SMAs just separately managed account This is
very common amongst other.
Speaker 4 (28:40):
Advisory firms and firms that we used to work for.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
Is they usually have their own portfolios that they run
with the portfolio managements, you know, whoever their brand name is,
whatever big firm they are. But then they also have
access to third party funds and portfolios out there as well,
a lot of big names.
Speaker 4 (28:59):
So there's one.
Speaker 3 (29:00):
That they touted because it just had a killer a
couple of years, you know, but part of that is
because they had Nvidian there and some of the other
MAC seven what have you. Well, this year it got
hit really hard in April and it's never recovered and
it's been underperforming the S and P five hundred like
(29:22):
on a pretty big margin. And he's kind of frustrated
because it came down through kind of management, right, and
then the wholesalers come out, And that's the biggest difference
is you know a lot of times when you're working
with somebody or firm, they'll put you in XYZ portfolio.
It could be their own brand name, right, Like there's
(29:45):
plenty out there, Merrial, Fidelity, Wells Fargo, you know, t
Rops whoever. And then they have a lot of third
parties and say, oh there's a third party separately managed
account we're going to put you in there, and they've
done this, that and whatever. But sometimes they change. They
can change the manager, they can change a strategy, whatever
the case may be, and then all of a sudden,
(30:05):
it's just going off kilter. And then you're saying, hey,
what's going on with my portfolio? And they'll say, well, okay,
let me go ahead and call them to figure out
what's going on and I can get back with you.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
Yeah. I mean, isn't that crazy? So and that's the
that's the There's two things I want to mention about that.
First of all, it's it is common. I mean, your
advisor for any and you're working at Fidelity, or you're
working at Schwab or Wells Farger Advisors or Morgan Stanley
or it doesn't matter, and you're charging an advisory fee.
(30:37):
And then you put people in investments that also have
embedded fees, like the separately managed accounts higher money managers
like Giuseppe and I that we're going to charge a fee,
and then you're going to pay the advisor a fee too.
So when you work with us, you're really cutting out
the middleman, whether you're paying for a separately managed account
(31:00):
portfolio or model that has a fee, and then you're
paying your advisor a fee, or you're using mutual funds
and you're paying an advisor who's putting you in these
mutual funds, and you're paying the advisor a fee. And
again you're paying embedded fees advisor management and expenses and
fees inside of the mutual fund. So again, when you
(31:22):
have you know, means, you know, hundreds of thousands to
millions of dollars, why you would be paying you know,
an advisor to then sell you somebody else's you know,
model or fund makes enough sense, right, And so many
times we find.
Speaker 3 (31:38):
That that, well, it makes sense for the advisor. It
makes sense for the advisor because they don't have to
do anything. And it's not that there's not good portfolio
managers out there, there's plenty, but you know, the advisor
they have to kind of pick and choose what they
do with their time.
Speaker 4 (31:52):
Number one and number two, they may not be capable
or they may not.
Speaker 3 (31:55):
Be approved to be able to discretion to be a
discretionary manager like we are.
Speaker 4 (31:58):
And that's exactly what we do here. That's that's what
we are.
Speaker 3 (32:02):
A representative one source wealth management or firm and we
are discretionary managers f duciaries to try and look out
for the best interest for the client. We're not beholden
to a brand name or some certain corporation or whatever.
We're agnostic to it. So we can put whatever we
wanted your portfolio and manage it as such based off
of like we had talked about earlier.
Speaker 4 (32:23):
You know, your plan, whatever.
Speaker 3 (32:24):
Your plan is set out to achieve over time, to
get you from point A to point B. That's what's
important to us. And then that's what we build a
portfolio around. But then you're talking with the actual individuals
that are pulling the levers and pushing the buttons, you know,
throughout time and as time changes, you know, things change
in life, things obviously change in the market and economy.
(32:46):
Then we make adjustments to the plan, and then we
make adjustments to.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
The portfolio exactly. And so at the end of the day,
you know the I mean performance does matter, cost does matter,
but really is is what's being done truly in your
best interest? Is it transparent? Uh, like you've you've mentioned,
(33:11):
and is it simple? Right? Our business model is simple.
We we work with people who you know, have have
built wealth whether it's you know, through uh self employment
or or W two employment. They've saved, they've done it,
they've done everything right. And and now you know, you
(33:32):
deserve the same sort of effort that it took you
to get to the wealth that you have to maintain
that wealth, grow that wealth, pass that wealth on, uh
you know, to your to whatever your aspirations are in
for the next generation, or to create your legacy, so
on and so forth. And all we do is planning
(33:54):
and money management. That's it. And so I guess right
now I should say that, and I haven't said, will
absolutely do a review of your portfolio, make some recommendations,
especially from a rebalancing, from a risk perspective, from a
(34:14):
cost perspective. We'll do that called nine one six nine
six seven thirty five hundred to get on our calendar.
There's still a few weeks left obviously in the year,
so there's still time to do some rebalancing and maybe
revising of your plans and your financial plans for next year.
(34:36):
And just to give you another example, so we talked
about our growth model, and you might be thinking, well,
you know that the one we were talking about, Wow,
that sounds really risky. Really aggressive. It is. It's an
aggressive stock portfolio, but it's designed for whatever portion of
your portfolio you want to have in stocks. Design for growth,
(34:58):
it's designed for growth. But we also have a more conservative,
not conservative, more conservative model called the we call it
the Core. It's a growth and income model. We call
it the one source Core and growth income and growth model.
And again, you know, if we go back to what
(35:18):
the weighted S and P year to date return is,
which is just under ten percent, and that's and that's
all stocks, which could you know, and probably has a
standard deviation of seventeen eighteen you know percent somewhere around there.
And then you look at the core model that once
(35:39):
again it's now more stocks than ten, it's thirty positions
instead of ten positions. It's rebalanced monthlys as well.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
Well, not no, it's not rebalanced monthly. It's reviewed monthly
to see if there's any changes that need to be
made and if so, then it's you know, rebalanced at
that point.
Speaker 2 (36:02):
But yep, and here we are it's return year to date.
And again past performance is in a guarantee of future results.
It doesn't mean well, it'll it'll have as good of
a year next year as it did this year. But
if we even look at the three year track record
of both of these, they're both double digits each year.
So but again that doesn't mean that's what it's going
(36:24):
to be in twenty six. I think twenty six is
going to be a good year for a variety of reasons,
some that we've already.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
But the important here's the important part that she left
out is that there's a heavier bias on this portfolio
of dividend paying stocks. So the first model, which is
up thirty six percent, that's just pure growth, that's just
going after the gusto, trying to beat the S and
P five hundred, whereas this one.
Speaker 4 (36:48):
Is thirty stocks.
Speaker 3 (36:50):
But the biases is there needs to be a good
portion of it of dividend paying stocks and getting paid
free time, which makes sense for a lot of our
retirement client.
Speaker 2 (37:00):
So this portfolio does have a little lower risk measure,
a little lower volatility and standard deviation as I already
mentioned than the S and P ten model, but the
performance is still there. It's still double digit with a dividend,
and so you're to date it's at eighteen point four
(37:21):
to three percent and pays on top of that has
paid out a three point two two percent dividend. So
the total return, you know, is it is closer to
twenty three percent than it is, you know, eighteen percent,
which is still more than double the weighted senal weight
(37:42):
the equal weighted s and P five hundred and so
now we're not we're not saying that because we want,
you know, everybody to come in and put all their
money in that and so on.
Speaker 4 (37:53):
Least can you least pat me on my back?
Speaker 2 (37:55):
But okay, that's one of the reasons why we're saying
it is it's a great and if you had mutual funds,
you had you know, broad based stock portfolios, you probably
had a good year as well. But it's how are
you going to do if next year isn't as good?
Are you going to have the proper diversification outside of
(38:16):
mutual funds where you have divid in pain stocks, you
have fixed income investments. There's fixed income investments that still
pay double digits. Do you have those in your portfolio? Okay?
Do you have alternatives? Do you have hedge funds? What
do you have in your portfolio that if the year
isn't great next year? Did you have any metals did
(38:39):
you have any crypto exposure? So on and so forth.
So there's so many different categories of investment. Crypto cryptos
had an awesome run, then got hammered, now it's coming
back up again. It really follows kind of the Nasdaq,
if you fix at least Bitcoin has a really close
correlation to the NASA. But my point is is that
(39:03):
there's more ways to make money than just stock and
stock mutual funds and stocks ETFs. The key is knowing
what your objectives are, knowing what your return needs are,
and then finding the least a risky way to achieve
those return needs. And so having a number, having a strategy,
(39:28):
having a benchmark to your wealth is crucial to not
taking on more risk than is needed. And that then
goes all the way circling back to the beginning of
the show, the importance of having a financial plan and
having one that's a living, breathing document. So, I mean,
(39:49):
you know, I worked for Amerorprize for about five years
long time ago, more than ten years ago, and planning
was their big thing. But that's they would sell plans
that would come in these fancy leather bound books, right
and be literally one hundred pages of stuff, and most
(40:12):
people wouldn't even read it. And the point of the
plan wasn't to just impress people. And I'm saying that now.
The point of the plan now isn't to impress people
with some fancy, actual book. No, it's to create a
working roadmap, as you like to say, GIUSEPPI to you know,
(40:34):
really benchmark where you're at each year, especially the years
in retirement, to make sure that you never run out
of money, and no matter what those goals are, no
matter what those risks are, that you're put in the
best possible position for success. Now, it doesn't guarantee things,
(40:57):
but it certainly makes life less stressful to have a plan,
to have two professionals like Giuseppe and I working with
best in class you know platforms. I mean, we love
the Charles Schwab platform. That's the main one we use
for our clients. And having those resources behind you in
(41:20):
a written plan that's reviewed and updated regularly, where your
portfolio is actively managed by two guys who have been
in this industry for combined almost fifty years now, so
we're battle tested, I like to say. And if that
doesn't sound like what you have and what you're doing
(41:41):
and you're not working with fiduciary, and you have no
idea what your true cost of things are. You have
no idea if you're truly diversified, you don't know what
you should be in. For twenty twenty six, I was
going to mention just some of the things that we
mentioned a couple of years ago on the growth side,
like Pallenteer and core Weave and UI Path and UH Symbiotic,
(42:04):
and and then on the non tech side, Frontline Albemarley
and you know, on and on and on, and there
was copper companies and so many things that we talked
about on this show. Oh gold, I mean I started
telling people to buy gold when it was, you know,
in the in the high one thousand range, and here
we are in the low four thousand, and I think
(42:25):
it's going to five thousand. Should you have gold in
your portfolio? That's a great point. If so, what type
of gold? Should you have? Gold mining stocks? Should you
have gold tracking stocks, should you have physical gold? So
on and so forth. I mean, those are all the
things that that could potentially be in your portfolio. So
let's just review real quick because we're out of time.
(42:49):
Rebalancing for the end of the year tax loss harvesting,
which I always kind of think that's an oxymoron. Right, Okay, well,
I guess if you have some position that have some
losses in it, you might as well use them to
your advantage. But it's not a strategy or a goal
to have, you know, investment losers. That are losers. So
(43:10):
have a plan, update your plan, look at you know,
a portfolio review before the end of the year, more
importantly called nine one six nine six seven thirty five
hundred for a no obligation consultation. I hope you've enjoyed
listening to John Scambray, jose Atpi Fiskani the wise money guys.
Have a wonderful Saturday, and come back and give us
a listen next weekend.
Speaker 4 (43:30):
I agree, weekend
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Welcome back to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show. I'm
your co host John Scammer. I'm here with my partner
Giuseppe Visconti, and we are certified portfolio managers that specialize
in helping people who are retired are about to retire
manager their money. As always, if you like our show,
give us a call to arrange a no obligation consultation,
or ask questions, or for any reason for that matter,
(00:35):
just to say hi, I guess our number is nine
one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. Again that
numbers nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
One of the reasons why you might want to call
Jusepe is because you know, at the end of the year,
certain portfolio strategies become more prevalent than other times of
(00:56):
the year. Certainly, if you have positions that either have
a loss or large gains and maybe you're out of balance,
maybe those positions now you know, the ones that have
large gains are too much of your portfolio, and the
ones that have losses aren't enough or aren't the right position,
(01:19):
or should be removed. And so looking at the tax
consequence of your portfolio and your strategy, you only have,
you know, here a couple of more weeks left, which
I can't even believe. I mean, it was just two
years ago ago that you that you you joined me
(01:39):
and and and we we added you to the radio show.
And here we are definitely both balder. I'm a little
bit thinner than I was two years ago. You're a
little bit thinner than you were two years ago. But
but nevertheless, Uh, it's import or to set yourself up
(02:02):
at the end of the year to kick yourself off
in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Yeah, I think you're talking about tax loss harvesting and
rebalancing exactly.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
And so many people are afraid to, especially in their
taxable accounts, you know, liquid data position that might have
gains in it, because they just don't want to pay
any sort of tax or.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
Vice versa, sell something that has losses. But they're like,
I know it's coming back, I'm going to hold on
to it. Oh that's my favorite. That's my favorite. But
this is a good reason why you can sell it.
Doesn't mean that you have to not ever invest in
it again, but you can get rid of it, capture
the losses, offset some of the gains that maybe you
have throughout the year, just to benefit and improve a
(02:44):
little bit. You know what you're ten eighty nine is
going to show as far as at the end of
the year for taxes.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Yeah, And I bet you, like any year, the high
flyers of this year aren't necessarily going to be the
high flyers of next year. I mean, are we going
to get a thousand percent more growth in video?
Speaker 4 (03:02):
Is not going to be important right here?
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Are we going to get another you know, one hundred
percent growth in in Google? And you know, so on
and so forth. I mean Apple this time at points
of this year was down into the one eighties. Now
it's too eighty. It was lackluster, right, And so the real,
the real thing beyond rebalancing is also you know, does
(03:25):
your investments now that maybe it's been a year, maybe
it's been two years, maybe it's been since twenty twenty
two that you've actually looked at your portfolio to see
if it matches your goals and objectives. And I think
twenty twenty six is going to be definitely different. I
think this year was the year of the AI chip.
(03:46):
I think next year is going to be the year
of robotics. You know, uh, power for data centers still
data data center infrastructure, software to run these different you know,
supercomputers and all those things, automation, you know, many many things.
Speaker 3 (04:07):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
I think there's a lot of opportunity and a lot
of the things that Yeah, I got some attention in
this new industrial revolution we're in, but they didn't get
anywhere near what the chip, right, the A m d s,
the NVIDIAs, the Taiwan semiconductors and anybody mentioning AI. I
(04:27):
think that's over for next year. I don't think you're
going to be able to just go, you know, oh
we're meta Facebook and we're gonna we're gonna invest into
AI and your your your stock goes from three hundred
to six hundred. I think that that plays over.
Speaker 4 (04:44):
So for Kentucky Fried Chicken, then we're gonna we're.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
Introducing ordering and so now Kentucky Fried Chicken stock which
is part of Pizza Hut and so on and so forth. Yeah,
I think yeah, it's young or Dard and one or
the other. But my point is is that what were
the darlings this year aren't necessarily going to be the
(05:07):
darlings next year.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
And well, I mean, if you look at it the
returns of some of these darlings last year compared to
this year, I think last year was actually better than
this year, and primarily because we had the big dip
in April in May. Right, And if you look at
the S and P five hundred comparative to what it
did in twenty three and twenty four, I mean, yes,
it's positive, but it's nothing like what it did in
(05:31):
twenty three and twenty four.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
Yeah, I mean overall the S and P, I mean,
barring anything crazy with the FED. Right, So, just from
a which is next week, from a news perspective, we've
got our economy perspective. We have the FED, you know,
looking at interest rates again, which every month or every
other month when this happens, you know, I get a
(05:54):
little vomit in my mouth just because I'm so sick
of the FED and the FED having the power that
they have. Do I think they need to remain independent
of the executive branch, Yes.
Speaker 3 (06:08):
But I think they I think they need to go
back to the old school days, whether or not anti commo, No, No,
it's just they're not productivity.
Speaker 4 (06:17):
No, they're just not commenting.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
And going out, you know, and given their explanations or
opinions or you know, it's like they comment.
Speaker 4 (06:27):
I was just listening to.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
Radio and I forget who was but they were charting
it and they said, you know, the markets are betting.
At one point, it was like eighty ninety percent of
another rate cut in December. But then between you know,
a two to three week period, there was FED presence
that came out and were interviewed or comment commentated, either
(06:49):
on you know, the TV or social media or whatever.
And from all of that commentary, right, it went from
like eighty ninety percent down to like thirty percent. Now
it's back up to like eighty percent. It's it's crazy.
So I think going back to the old school ways
where we don't need to hear every little thought that's
(07:11):
coming out of a FED president right at any given
time and any point, at any point in the week,
just have the FED meeting, maybe there's a you know,
and then they have the meetings afterwards where they interview
Jerome Powell and the committee and what have you.
Speaker 4 (07:26):
And that's it, and then we wait on to the
next next meeting.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Well, and if you think about it, how long has
this mantra? I don't even know what a mantra technically is.
I mean that the Federal Reserve Board and its monetary
policy is given authority through congressional acts and laws. And
so now this this whatever, this this that, Oh, you know,
(07:51):
our mantra is two percent inflation year over year as
far as price increases and full employment. What does that
even mean? I mean, if you're going to have a
central bank that's part of trying to control your economy,
then the only thing they should be trying to do
(08:12):
is grow your economy. Their mantra should be pro growth,
that's it. It shouldn't be inflation. It shouldn't be unemployment
or full employment, because if your economy is growing and booming,
guess what you'll have full employment, you'll have low inflation,
(08:32):
you'll have wealth creation, people be able to buy house,
you know, on and on and on and on. So
this mantra of you know, oh, we're we're looking to
crush the economy to get inflation down to two percent
and make sure unemployment and it doesn't go hand in
hand and unemployment remains low or therefore you have full employment.
(08:54):
Makes no sense because if you make it so people
can't afford to do things well, then companies profits are
going to go down. And if companies profits go down,
guess what they do. They don't hire and they lay off,
and therefore you won't have full employment. So the mantra
of the FED needs to be completely revamped, rewritten. They're
(09:19):
One of the main things is they shouldn't be a
political body where they give these testimonies, you know too
mainly to the media. Now now they don't even give
testimony any worthwhile Texel, Yeah, it's it's not a fourth
branch of the government. And so I got off of
a tangent. And and really let's circle back on some
(09:41):
of the things where we'll we'll talk about throughout the show,
which is we've touched upon some strategy are are ready,
which is to rebalance, you know, now before the year
is up.
Speaker 4 (09:53):
Look at tax loss harvicing, yep.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
Tax loss harvesting, potentially locking in some gains that you
might not get any higher than they already are, especially
if you have chip the chips up that that have
just boomed inside of funds. And in fact, if you
have funds mutual funds and you've got hundreds of thousands
to millions of dollars, why that would be my first question.
(10:20):
I think you've graduated beyond the need for mutual funds.
But really strategy wise, and we'll keep talking about this
throughout the show, is you know, really positioning yourself from
you know, updating your plan, having your your your your
risk being in alignment with your goals and objectives, and
(10:42):
and really repositioning.
Speaker 4 (10:44):
And your portfolio to be aligned with your plans.
Speaker 3 (10:46):
So if you haven't had a plan or you haven't
reviewed your plan a long time and you think there
needs to be some updates and changes, then you should
do that with your plan and then you look at
your portfolio and your assets and say, hey, is this
lined up with my plan or my way off?
Speaker 2 (10:59):
And by the way, before we go to break, if
you call us now for not now, I mean we're
closed the next five minutes, call us in the next
five minutes. But if you give us a call to
set a no obligation consultation, we'll review these things for
you and there's no charge to do that. There's no pressure,
we'll take a look at what you've done. We'll give
(11:21):
you a second opinion. If you don't have a plan
in place, or it's been a long time since you
have at least done a retirement plan, we'll do that
for you. We'll give we'll send you a questionnaire which
will start your draft of your financial plan, and we'll
get that done for you as part of the no
(11:41):
obligation consultation. And I highly suggest you do that while
there's still time before the year's up. So keep listening
to the wise money guys. And we were talking about
the FED and some of the strategies for the end
of the year that are that are pretty important. We
didn't mention the meeting is actually next week. You know,
(12:03):
I think it's going to be a quarter Some think
that it might not be anything, and I guess it's
just because there's a lot of disagreement now amongst the
committee members, the Federal Open Market Committee members that you know,
some think there should be cuts and more drastic and
(12:26):
really Jerome Powell himself seems to think there shouldn't be
any because inflation is running at about you know, a
little over a three percent. By measures that we talked
about last week. You can't even trust the data. So
whether it's CPI or p p PI or what's the
PC personal consumption expenditures. That's Jerome Powell's I guess barometer
(12:53):
that he really likes to use, you know, which is
running a little over three percent. But again, I think
they're focused on the wrong things, the wrong things. If
you if you're worried about inflation, well don't keep destroying
the dollar. You know the real reason why there's inflation
is because it takes more dollars against other currencies to
(13:17):
buy the same good or service. If you strengthen your
dollar and it takes less dollars, well, guess what. That's
the true meaning of inflation. If it takes less dollars. Something.
Raise minimum wage, well right, that'll that'll solve everything. Just
make it, you know, fifty dollars an hour minimum wage
(13:38):
to you know, dig a ditch, or flip burgers or
or or or whatever to change a tire, work on
a house, you name it. Well, fifty dollars an hour
if you got skills is pretty much going wage these days.
These days, skilled labor I mean depends, I mean we're
little even higher. If you're like electrician or a welder.
Speaker 3 (14:02):
Or out here at least in California for sure, but yeah,
another state's mid America probably that's probably too high.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
But either way, I mean, so the FEDS, the FOMC
meeting next week, the FRB bet A Reserve Board Chairman
Jerome Powell is going to make a decision as far
as FED funds, which might even have the opposite impact.
So a lot of the FED cuts if the industry,
(14:30):
especially the powers that really control the bulk of the
wealth in investments in banking, you know, don't really feel
it was the right move. Interest rates could actually go
higher because right the long term treasury, the thirty year
(14:50):
treasury could sell off and then you'll see the yields
actually go higher. Same with the tenure and mortgages tend
to follow the ten year treasury. So treasury yields could
actually go higher because money comes out of treasuries, goes
into cash, or goes into stocks, or goes into something
(15:12):
at real estate, and then you see a yield spike
in the treasury market and mortgages and i e. You know, loans.
Speaker 4 (15:23):
Jerome, Jerome Pow would hate to see that.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
Yeah, no, he would love to see.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
Especially especially if he well it depends, but yeah, that
would that would if that if that were to take
place after they cut rates the third time this year
as they did last year. Yeah, that's just going to
put a world to hurt.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
Yeah. So as far as the economy next year, I
mean this this year was a pretty darn good year.
I mean I see based on just really the momentum
we have and the growth that we do have, and
and and now that now that data is coming in
about fact is being built, you know, manufacturing increasing here,
(16:04):
hiring increasing to the manufacturing sector of just about every
type of good and service. I mean, we could be
in for a major economic expansion in the US from
a resurgence of you know, manufacturing being done here of
(16:24):
goods and services. I mean you look at things like Boeing,
you know, Boeing just I mean they actually forecasted for
a law, you know, and it's been a long time,
more seven thirty seven sales and more seven eighty seven
sales than they anticipated, and less problems and less problems.
(16:46):
Now that that seven thirty seven max eight whatever it
was that was so yesterday.
Speaker 4 (16:53):
No, there was something else with a seven eighty seven.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
More recently, Well, don't remember, don't you remember, Like I
don't know if it was the seven eighty seven, but
really a door blew off.
Speaker 4 (17:02):
You know, that's kind of scared to death. That's kind
of important, especially flying out next week.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
But that's that's that's the blue chip of blue chips, right,
I mean Boeing, it's like ib well, I.
Speaker 5 (17:19):
Think it's more of an icon of of of of
the US, right, That's what I'm saying, because it's either
Boeing or air Bus, and you're flying on.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
Air Bus is a foreign competitor, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (17:32):
And you're flying on one of those planes.
Speaker 3 (17:36):
But I think I think as long as they continue
to learn from the mistakes and build quality products like
they used to way back when when it was ran
by literally engineers. Their their executive team was engineers back then.
Until the eighties, McDonald douglas, you know, merged with them
even though it looked like they bought them, and then
(17:58):
McDonald douglas ran it, ran it based off of an
Excel spreadsheet and just look at profits. Well, this is
why you have this is why you have this is
part of the reason why you have those problems with
the seven thirty seven and seven eighty seven, right, because you.
Speaker 2 (18:10):
Can't do cost cutting measures on safety when it comes
to flying people places, right.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
Right, So some of them they just have at some
point in time, as things change and things evolve and
technology evolved, sometimes you just have to come up with
a new design. But what they've been doing is it've
been taking an old design and then retrofitting it and
putting new, new pieces and new technology on old design.
Speaker 2 (18:32):
If that wasn't a good strategy, then the nine to
eleven wouldn't be a good car, because the nine to
eleven is the same car. I know, I'm going on
a segwe you calm down now, you're just saying that
they're just, you know, no, but continuing with design over
and over.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
Not true, Not true, because the nine to eleven, how
much bigger is a current portion nine to eleven to
a nineteen eighties it's definitely elevanded. Well, the footprints way bigger,
the footprint radig So that's the thing that sevent eighty seven.
The heights, the heights of the clearance from the wing
(19:06):
to the to the tarmac has been the same. They
needed to redesign that whole plane to make it higher
to fit bigger engines, but they didn't. That's why they That's.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
Another sector that I think you're going to see massive
changes too. In fact, I was watching a story on
the flight the Revolution and flight like drones and personal
drones and no now fully autumn, not even drones fully
artificial intelligence automated combat of jet planes where you know,
(19:42):
the thing about a drone is somebody's still behind the controls.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
Well, I was talking about personal personal passengers. That's going
to be a huge I mean, you look at whether
it's Joby Joby's Sargey boy Archer.
Speaker 4 (19:57):
You know, I think je jettis inner Jet something like that.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
I know who you're talking about. But I think the
way I think military but also personal transportation is going
to drastically change. I think the robo transportation sector is
going to boom starting. You know, I have not yet.
I have talked to friends who have been and they're like,
(20:25):
it's it's bizarre, you know it. But once you're not
paying attention to.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
Have friendship with yours and you're like, oh, yeah, it's cool.
I have friends in San Francisco and they use it
all the time. Way mow, Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's just
a car with a bunch of sensors and cameras and stuff,
and it's just way through.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
It's it's so crucial to rebalance and redeploy your capital.
I mean, if you want to see you know, massive
growth or growth in your portfolio. The things that we're
talking about this morning is what it's going to be
the next wave of just gigantic gains from you know,
(21:06):
revolutionizing just about anything that we do. And and so
I think we're at just a pivotal, crucial point from
financial services perspective that you know, it's really going to
take some skill and wherewithal and and forethought to basically
(21:30):
analyze and decide, you know, how to address that. So
many people wish would it could have should have right
invested into the Internet revolution, and they didn't. Well, now
here we are. We're in the next industrial revolution and
(21:51):
there's just going to be trillions of dollars to be made.
And it's a proven fact that people who work with
professional like you and I make far more money over
time and on average than they do without the help
and support and knowledge and skills of people like Giuseppe
(22:13):
and I who've been in the industry and have been
at the forefront of some of these things, and I'll
mention some of the ones that I started talking about
five six years ago and where those are today as
far as where you know, big big money was made
this year still will be important next year. But I
(22:33):
think a lot of the you know, the mag seven,
I think we'll see hopefully a little more broadening of
that to where, of.
Speaker 4 (22:42):
Course it's not just dependent upon them doing well.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
Yeah, but if you look at the S and P
five hundred, you know, the S and P five hundred
basically year to date here in December is up sixteen
point six percent year to date. And then you look at,
you know, our two main model portfolios, one which really
(23:06):
takes stocks from the S and P five hundred and
then on a monthly basis is rebalance, where we select
the model that we created, that Giuseppe created, selects on
a monthly basis to potentially rebalance the top ten or
what we feel or the top ten stocks based on
(23:28):
the parameters that Giuseppe built and puts into the model
out of the S and P five hundred companies. And
if we look at what that's done compared to what
the S and P five hundred has done. The S
and P five hundred, as I said, was up sixteen
point six and the model portfolio this year of the
(23:53):
S and two ten with ten stocks is up thirty
six percent year today. Now we always need to mention
past per four its is not a guarantee of future results.
But my point is is I think it's going to
be even more of a challenge.
Speaker 3 (24:08):
And by the way, there's no MAG seven names within
those ten nuys.
Speaker 2 (24:13):
Isn't that interesting? So the MAG seven really is what
has fueled almost I would say eighty percent of the nasdaqs.
Speaker 3 (24:23):
Well, it's just these growth a little more than a
third of the waiting of S and P five hundred.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
Yeah, but if you look at the return contributed of
those seven or ten stocks, I mean it's like eighty
percent of the return. You pull out any of the
MAG seven and the MAG ten's returns out of the
Nasdaq one hundred or the S and P five hundred,
and now all of a sudden, you know you're not
at sixteen percent in the S and P five hundred anymore.
(24:49):
And here here's here's what's just super impressive. The S
and P ten model doesn't include any of the MAG
seven stocks, But yeah, it doubled the performance year to date,
more than doubles more than doubled the year to date
performance of the index the S and P five hundred.
(25:10):
So if you're thinking the equal.
Speaker 3 (25:13):
Weight just for reference, meaning that if you didn't put
more of an emphasis on the MAG seven or any
one name the equal weights and P five hundred index
fund year today is up under ten percent nine point
five percent for example.
Speaker 4 (25:30):
So that's the difference between the.
Speaker 3 (25:31):
Waiting of the MAG seven, right, which is up would
you say sixteen point six versus nine point five right?
Speaker 2 (25:39):
Yeah, So if you're thinking you you're doing going to
do this part time, meaning or or you know, I'm
just going to throw my money into mutual funds and
I'm going to be fine next year and the year
after and so on and so forth. He mite. But
(26:00):
wouldn't you want somebody liked SEPPI and I in your
corner to do it for you instead, so that you
can enjoy the wealth that you created.
Speaker 3 (26:10):
Or maybe you've built your portfolio and originally was all
mutual funds and you've gotten to a point where it's
built big enough, or now you have a larger substantial
account size or you can go out and buy the
direct investments yourself and create your own mutual fund. When
you're starting your own account, you have maybe ten twenty
thousand mutual funds make sense. ETFs make sense because that's
(26:33):
the best way to diversify your assets when you're working
with a smaller account size. But now if you've amassed
two hundred and fifty five hundred seven fifty eight million
dollars in the account and you still have these ETFs
and funds, not to say that they're bad, because we
like some of them and use some of the.
Speaker 2 (26:52):
Portfolios and some alternative mutual funds.
Speaker 3 (26:56):
Yeah, but now you can actually create your own per
se mutual fund, right because now you can have direct
investment of individual stocks. And here's here's one key of
well why would I want that? Well, it's transparent. Number two.
You you could have put your money in a S
and P five hundred index fund and you're up sixteen
point six or you could have been more selective and
(27:18):
figured out what individual stocks would I want to own,
kind of like what we have in our model, right,
and you're up thirty six percent. On the other side
of things, you know, I just had a client review
meeting last week and they said, you know, there's a
few names in there that we don't agree.
Speaker 4 (27:34):
With the businesses the companies for whatever reasons.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
Right, is it possible for us to like substitute those
names out and be invested in something else? One hundred percent?
Because it's essentially your mutual fund, you could do whatever
you want, right, You don't have to own this, that
or the other thing. You can create it and customize
it based off of you know, your goals, your timeline,
your risk tolerance, and then also you know you're to
(28:00):
your liking in regards to you know, maybe things don't
align with you morally or politically or whatever the case
may be.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
Yeah, I mean the reality is that our clients know
what they're invested in and why we have them in it.
We just don't blindly put people in things that they
don't understand what it is and why it makes sense
for their portfolio.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
I got a great example I just talked to. One
of my old counterparts is also a financial advisor, works
for another firm, a large firm, and they use a
lot of SMAs SMAs just separately managed account This is
very common amongst other.
Speaker 4 (28:40):
Advisory firms and firms that we used to work for.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
Is they usually have their own portfolios that they run
with the portfolio managements, you know, whoever their brand name is,
whatever big firm they are. But then they also have
access to third party funds and portfolios out there as well,
a lot of big names.
Speaker 4 (28:59):
So there's one.
Speaker 3 (29:00):
That they touted because it just had a killer a
couple of years, you know, but part of that is
because they had Nvidian there and some of the other
MAC seven what have you. Well, this year it got
hit really hard in April and it's never recovered and
it's been underperforming the S and P five hundred like
(29:22):
on a pretty big margin. And he's kind of frustrated
because it came down through kind of management, right, and
then the wholesalers come out, And that's the biggest difference
is you know a lot of times when you're working
with somebody or firm, they'll put you in XYZ portfolio.
It could be their own brand name, right, Like there's
(29:45):
plenty out there, Merrial, Fidelity, Wells Fargo, you know, t
Rops whoever. And then they have a lot of third
parties and say, oh there's a third party separately managed
account we're going to put you in there, and they've
done this, that and whatever. But sometimes they change. They
can change the manager, they can change a strategy, whatever
the case may be, and then all of a sudden,
(30:05):
it's just going off kilter. And then you're saying, hey,
what's going on with my portfolio? And they'll say, well, okay,
let me go ahead and call them to figure out
what's going on and I can get back with you.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
Yeah. I mean, isn't that crazy? So and that's the
that's the There's two things I want to mention about that.
First of all, it's it is common. I mean, your
advisor for any and you're working at Fidelity, or you're
working at Schwab or Wells Farger Advisors or Morgan Stanley
or it doesn't matter, and you're charging an advisory fee.
(30:37):
And then you put people in investments that also have
embedded fees, like the separately managed accounts higher money managers
like Giuseppe and I that we're going to charge a fee,
and then you're going to pay the advisor a fee too.
So when you work with us, you're really cutting out
the middleman, whether you're paying for a separately managed account
(31:00):
portfolio or model that has a fee, and then you're
paying your advisor a fee, or you're using mutual funds
and you're paying an advisor who's putting you in these
mutual funds, and you're paying the advisor a fee. And
again you're paying embedded fees advisor management and expenses and
fees inside of the mutual fund. So again, when you
(31:22):
have you know, means, you know, hundreds of thousands to
millions of dollars, why you would be paying you know,
an advisor to then sell you somebody else's you know,
model or fund makes enough sense, right, And so many
times we find.
Speaker 3 (31:38):
That that, well, it makes sense for the advisor. It
makes sense for the advisor because they don't have to
do anything. And it's not that there's not good portfolio
managers out there, there's plenty, but you know, the advisor
they have to kind of pick and choose what they
do with their time.
Speaker 4 (31:52):
Number one and number two, they may not be capable
or they may not.
Speaker 3 (31:55):
Be approved to be able to discretion to be a
discretionary manager like we are.
Speaker 4 (31:58):
And that's exactly what we do here. That's that's what
we are.
Speaker 3 (32:02):
A representative one source wealth management or firm and we
are discretionary managers f duciaries to try and look out
for the best interest for the client. We're not beholden
to a brand name or some certain corporation or whatever.
We're agnostic to it. So we can put whatever we
wanted your portfolio and manage it as such based off
of like we had talked about earlier.
Speaker 4 (32:23):
You know, your plan, whatever.
Speaker 3 (32:24):
Your plan is set out to achieve over time, to
get you from point A to point B. That's what's
important to us. And then that's what we build a
portfolio around. But then you're talking with the actual individuals
that are pulling the levers and pushing the buttons, you know,
throughout time and as time changes, you know, things change
in life, things obviously change in the market and economy.
(32:46):
Then we make adjustments to the plan, and then we
make adjustments to.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
The portfolio exactly. And so at the end of the day,
you know the I mean performance does matter, cost does matter,
but really is is what's being done truly in your
best interest? Is it transparent? Uh, like you've you've mentioned,
(33:11):
and is it simple? Right? Our business model is simple.
We we work with people who you know, have have
built wealth whether it's you know, through uh self employment
or or W two employment. They've saved, they've done it,
they've done everything right. And and now you know, you
(33:32):
deserve the same sort of effort that it took you
to get to the wealth that you have to maintain
that wealth, grow that wealth, pass that wealth on, uh
you know, to your to whatever your aspirations are in
for the next generation, or to create your legacy, so
on and so forth. And all we do is planning
(33:54):
and money management. That's it. And so I guess right
now I should say that, and I haven't said, will
absolutely do a review of your portfolio, make some recommendations,
especially from a rebalancing, from a risk perspective, from a
(34:14):
cost perspective. We'll do that called nine one six nine
six seven thirty five hundred to get on our calendar.
There's still a few weeks left obviously in the year,
so there's still time to do some rebalancing and maybe
revising of your plans and your financial plans for next year.
(34:36):
And just to give you another example, so we talked
about our growth model, and you might be thinking, well,
you know that the one we were talking about, Wow,
that sounds really risky. Really aggressive. It is. It's an
aggressive stock portfolio, but it's designed for whatever portion of
your portfolio you want to have in stocks. Design for growth,
(34:58):
it's designed for growth. But we also have a more conservative,
not conservative, more conservative model called the we call it
the Core. It's a growth and income model. We call
it the one source Core and growth income and growth model.
And again, you know, if we go back to what
(35:18):
the weighted S and P year to date return is,
which is just under ten percent, and that's and that's
all stocks, which could you know, and probably has a
standard deviation of seventeen eighteen you know percent somewhere around there.
And then you look at the core model that once
(35:39):
again it's now more stocks than ten, it's thirty positions
instead of ten positions. It's rebalanced monthlys as well.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
Well, not no, it's not rebalanced monthly. It's reviewed monthly
to see if there's any changes that need to be
made and if so, then it's you know, rebalanced at
that point.
Speaker 2 (36:02):
But yep, and here we are it's return year to date.
And again past performance is in a guarantee of future results.
It doesn't mean well, it'll it'll have as good of
a year next year as it did this year. But
if we even look at the three year track record
of both of these, they're both double digits each year.
So but again that doesn't mean that's what it's going
(36:24):
to be in twenty six. I think twenty six is
going to be a good year for a variety of reasons,
some that we've already.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
But the important here's the important part that she left
out is that there's a heavier bias on this portfolio
of dividend paying stocks. So the first model, which is
up thirty six percent, that's just pure growth, that's just
going after the gusto, trying to beat the S and
P five hundred, whereas this one.
Speaker 4 (36:48):
Is thirty stocks.
Speaker 3 (36:50):
But the biases is there needs to be a good
portion of it of dividend paying stocks and getting paid
free time, which makes sense for a lot of our
retirement client.
Speaker 2 (37:00):
So this portfolio does have a little lower risk measure,
a little lower volatility and standard deviation as I already
mentioned than the S and P ten model, but the
performance is still there. It's still double digit with a dividend,
and so you're to date it's at eighteen point four
(37:21):
to three percent and pays on top of that has
paid out a three point two two percent dividend. So
the total return, you know, is it is closer to
twenty three percent than it is, you know, eighteen percent,
which is still more than double the weighted senal weight
(37:42):
the equal weighted s and P five hundred and so
now we're not we're not saying that because we want,
you know, everybody to come in and put all their
money in that and so on.
Speaker 4 (37:53):
Least can you least pat me on my back?
Speaker 2 (37:55):
But okay, that's one of the reasons why we're saying
it is it's a great and if you had mutual funds,
you had you know, broad based stock portfolios, you probably
had a good year as well. But it's how are
you going to do if next year isn't as good?
Are you going to have the proper diversification outside of
(38:16):
mutual funds where you have divid in pain stocks, you
have fixed income investments. There's fixed income investments that still
pay double digits. Do you have those in your portfolio? Okay?
Do you have alternatives? Do you have hedge funds? What
do you have in your portfolio that if the year
isn't great next year? Did you have any metals did
(38:39):
you have any crypto exposure? So on and so forth.
So there's so many different categories of investment. Crypto cryptos
had an awesome run, then got hammered, now it's coming
back up again. It really follows kind of the Nasdaq,
if you fix at least Bitcoin has a really close
correlation to the NASA. But my point is is that
(39:03):
there's more ways to make money than just stock and
stock mutual funds and stocks ETFs. The key is knowing
what your objectives are, knowing what your return needs are,
and then finding the least a risky way to achieve
those return needs. And so having a number, having a strategy,
(39:28):
having a benchmark to your wealth is crucial to not
taking on more risk than is needed. And that then
goes all the way circling back to the beginning of
the show, the importance of having a financial plan and
having one that's a living, breathing document. So, I mean,
(39:49):
you know, I worked for Amerorprize for about five years
long time ago, more than ten years ago, and planning
was their big thing. But that's they would sell plans
that would come in these fancy leather bound books, right
and be literally one hundred pages of stuff, and most
(40:12):
people wouldn't even read it. And the point of the
plan wasn't to just impress people. And I'm saying that now.
The point of the plan now isn't to impress people
with some fancy, actual book. No, it's to create a
working roadmap, as you like to say, GIUSEPPI to you know,
(40:34):
really benchmark where you're at each year, especially the years
in retirement, to make sure that you never run out
of money, and no matter what those goals are, no
matter what those risks are, that you're put in the
best possible position for success. Now, it doesn't guarantee things,
(40:57):
but it certainly makes life less stressful to have a plan,
to have two professionals like Giuseppe and I working with
best in class you know platforms. I mean, we love
the Charles Schwab platform. That's the main one we use
for our clients. And having those resources behind you in
(41:20):
a written plan that's reviewed and updated regularly, where your
portfolio is actively managed by two guys who have been
in this industry for combined almost fifty years now, so
we're battle tested, I like to say. And if that
doesn't sound like what you have and what you're doing
(41:41):
and you're not working with fiduciary, and you have no
idea what your true cost of things are. You have
no idea if you're truly diversified, you don't know what
you should be in. For twenty twenty six, I was
going to mention just some of the things that we
mentioned a couple of years ago on the growth side,
like Pallenteer and core Weave and UI Path and UH Symbiotic,
(42:04):
and and then on the non tech side, Frontline Albemarley
and you know, on and on and on, and there
was copper companies and so many things that we talked
about on this show. Oh gold, I mean I started
telling people to buy gold when it was, you know,
in the in the high one thousand range, and here
we are in the low four thousand, and I think
(42:25):
it's going to five thousand. Should you have gold in
your portfolio? That's a great point. If so, what type
of gold? Should you have? Gold mining stocks? Should you
have gold tracking stocks, should you have physical gold? So
on and so forth. I mean, those are all the
things that that could potentially be in your portfolio. So
let's just review real quick because we're out of time.
(42:49):
Rebalancing for the end of the year tax loss harvesting,
which I always kind of think that's an oxymoron. Right, Okay, well,
I guess if you have some position that have some
losses in it, you might as well use them to
your advantage. But it's not a strategy or a goal
to have, you know, investment losers. That are losers. So
(43:10):
have a plan, update your plan, look at you know,
a portfolio review before the end of the year, more
importantly called nine one six nine six seven thirty five
hundred for a no obligation consultation. I hope you've enjoyed
listening to John Scambray, jose Atpi Fiskani the wise money guys.
Have a wonderful Saturday, and come back and give us
a listen next weekend.
Speaker 4 (43:30):
I agree, weekend
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