January 29, 2026 • 43 mins
As debt begins to pile up, the balance of the markets are shifting. You might need help with your retirement planning. Hosts John and Giuseppe share their view on the volitle stock market, corporate earnings, and strong economic data ahead. Plus, Reits and alternative investments. The Wise Money Guys!
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys radio show.
I'm your co host, John Scambra, and I'm here with
my partner just after Viscontin, and we are certified portfolio
managers that specialized in helping people who are retired are
about to retire manage their money. If you like our
show as always, you can give us a call to
schedule a no obligation consultation or just to shoot the
(00:33):
breeze by calling nine to one six ninety six seven
thirty five hundred. Also, you can visit our website Wysmoneyguys
dot com and there's all kinds of resources there as
well as important disclosures and information. By scrolling to the
bottom of the page. You can also arrange a no
(00:54):
obligation consultation from there as well by clicking on contact
us and just providing your name, email, and or phone number.
This show is brought to you by One Source Wealth
Management that's SEC number three one nine zero seven eight.
I want to start off the show by first saying, yep,
(01:15):
we are going to talk about things that we see
in the economy, things that we see in the data,
things that are affecting the stock market, the bond market,
investment performance overall. But first, you know, we've been warning
and cautioning that there were certain events that are going
(01:36):
to be similar this year to last year that caused
extreme volatility, and we saw just a little snippet of
it this week from some of those things that we've
been warning people to be cautious, that could really affect you,
especially if all of your money is in stocks, If
(01:58):
all of your money is in one's sort of sector
of stocks as well, then it would be even worse.
But we saw, you know, pressure on on markets and
profits when tariff conversations, you know, we're all over the screen,
all over the news again, which kind of and and
(02:20):
we mentioned this happened from negotiations surrounding talks about the
Greenland becoming part of North America, which it already is.
Quite frankly, nobody's been supporting Greenland more than us. Nobody's
part of North America. It really is.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
It's North American hemisphere going to go drive there next
week and have a little vacation.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Well, there's lots of places you can do, especially in Canada.
But but the point is is that we were saying
that here's some things to look for first, you know,
watch for FED meetings, Watch for inflation data still, watch
for tariff conversations, Watch for earnings results, watch for now
(03:08):
coming up government shut down conversation, because we we we
talked quite a bit about the continuing resolution, how that
the government shut down at the end of last year
was just canceled or the government was reopened with another
cr just a temporary continuing resolution of spending money to
(03:33):
fund the government. But no budget has actually been passed,
So that we don't keep bumping up against this absolutely
contravesty of politicians not doing their job. Their whole job
in Congress is to handle fiscal policy, you know, and
(03:54):
here we are that they can't even do that, and sadly,
when both sides have had a majority, they still don't
pass a budget, or they pass a budget that requires
trillions of spending beyond the revenues going into the federal government.
(04:14):
Which is why we have these big battles lately, is
because fiscally conservative politicians don't want to, you know, pass
a new budget for all the various departments and agencies
and so on and so forth and needs and entitlements
without you know, a serious look and a serious you
(04:38):
know accounting of where's all the money going and where's
all the waste going.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
While we're sitting in thirty eight trillion and debt.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
And debt, and soon in a blank, it'll be forty trillion.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
Hundreds of billions and service per month.
Speaker 2 (04:53):
And three four years from now it'll be fifty trillion.
And eventually, you know, conversations and again I'm gonna be
way out in front here, they'll start talking about a
debt jubilee where they'll just go, oh, the.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
Only this sounds like a fun party.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Yeah, because they'll try to make it, meaning when I
say they are leaders that we elect, will try to
make it sound like, oh, this is this is just
a debt jubilee. You know, you could just literally cancel
all your debt. It won't affect world markets, it won't
affect inflation, it won't affect your insurance's, your credit quality.
It will destroy affects your foundation everything that the United
(05:32):
States stands for, which is safety and security and the
best place to park your money in the world. That
will be gone overnight, just like it's been gone now
for more than a decade. With Greece did a debt jubilee.
You know, Italy throughout you know their recent history has
done what jubilee.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
Twenty tens area between those like twenty fifteen or twenty sixteen,
they had the pigs yep or Ireland, Greece, Italy, Spain.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
Exactly and guess where it led to the worst economies,
the worst recessions, the worst inflation their dollar, complete dollar destruction,
which is really what inflation is by the way you
destroy the value of your dollar. Well, obviously, whatever your
currency is then takes more of it to buy the
(06:25):
same thing, and that's what inflation here is really about.
The more we burden our dollar with debt and deficit,
the more we put pressure on the dollar's value against
other currencies. And the big ones are the yuon obviously,
and the Euro and the Canadian The rest of the
(06:47):
currencies out there, well, I guess you could say the
Pound is very important because obviously Brexit they broke off
and we do have separate trade agreements with the UK.
Other than that, the roob, the Russian currency, any of
the Middle Eastern currencies, you know, the Latin American currencies,
(07:09):
they're pretty much you know, without dollars are worthless.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
So everything's you know, everything kind of ties to dollar.
When there's you know, crisis or chaos. You know, Third
world countries typically go towards the US dollar, right and
especially like you know, Venezuela, Argentina, you know, all those
countries that they start having high inflation or hyperinflation. You
(07:35):
know a lot of people on the will go on
the black market to try and get US dollars, even China,
as big as China, and how much they've been trying
to push the U on and get getting rid of
the petro dollar. You know, I've heard, and I've heard
through some people, personal people and some clients that have
ties or been to China or lived in China's that
(07:55):
a lot of times people try and find ways to
shell out you know, money, your assets from China over
a targeted period of time and bring it to the U. US.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
Yeah, right now, don't mistake this kind of early conversation
we're having in the show that you know, we think
you should run out and put all your money you know,
in gold and hide it in a safe or a
safe deposit box somewhere. No, that's not what it means.
But it does mean that these events team tend to
repeat themselves, and there are ways to reduce your risk
(08:30):
and exposure to certain classes of assets that will get
hit harder than others. And so it doesn't mean that
you don't want, you know, investments in the various asset classes,
but you need to be prudent about how much you
have and and and how much in each you know,
position in a category to be thought that you have,
(08:51):
it's going.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
To be a thoughtful strategy. And like we've talked about
many times before, thoughtful strategy that ligns up with a
plan and and again and you know, to echo what
you said, Yeah, well, all these different events aren't being
discussed because we're worried about the market. Quite the contrary.
I mean, so far, we've had strong economic data and
(09:15):
to go over YEP and corporate earnings that have been
showing the resilience of the US economy and continued growth,
which is great. But a lot of times people, especially
when you're investing money on your own emotions, get involved
into it, and so what worked well for you last time.
You know, maybe you're keeping that process and strategy going,
(09:36):
or maybe there's not much of a process or strategy,
but like hey, I picked these different stocks or funds
and they're doing well. But then some of these events
take place. It can cost some short short term volatility,
some decent drawdowns, meaning that you see your portfolio going
down five, ten, fifteen, twenty percent, and then now you're
starting to panic. Emotions get involved, and then you start
making some rash decisions and changing some things within your portfolio.
(09:58):
There have to be a thoughtful process and strategy around
what these monies are doing for you that are invested,
and then how that aligns with your plan. And then
when these events take place, unless it's major, you don't panic.
You're not managing based off of emotion. You're managing based
off of strategy that has been thought out and put together,
(10:20):
and and you're you're looking at the overall picture, like hey,
tariff conversations arose again because of Greenland. Now they're gone
and everything seems to be, you know, quiet on the front,
but it could arise again. And we have the FEDS
meeting and all the other things that John had spoken
about and then in the next week's coming up. So
(10:40):
how do you go about and make sure that you're
on track? If you don't have a plan, how do
you know if you're on the right track? If these
events take place and you are down five or ten percent,
does that mean that you need to make adjustments? At
that point? You don't know unless you have a plan
right and until that point you can say, hey, I'm
on track? Are these things? Do I really need to
(11:00):
pay attention to these things? Do I really need to
make some adjustments? Or am I just overreacting and making
decisions based off of motion.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
You know, often we spend talking about our favorite subject
on this show, which is obviously the economy and how
it affects investments. I mean, we love investments, we love stocks,
you know, we love planning, and more importantly, we love
helping people with those things. But so many times we
forget to emphasize some of the bigger picture things that
(11:30):
we do for our clients, which is planning, but planning
to where we're also being in essence, your quarterback, you're
consultant that helps you and points you in the right
direction for you know, your trusts, your a state plan,
you know, helping you and pointing you in the right
direction for tax help, things like that. Now, we don't
(11:53):
do preparation, we're not attorneys, we don't do you know,
the trust work ourselves. But part of the plan, and
part of the the benefits of having us on your
team is that we're going to help guide you. We're
going to help make sure you have everything properly structured
so that you know whatever your goals ultimately are. Yes,
(12:16):
it's important what your cash flow goals are and your
cash flow needs are. But at the end of the day,
the most important thing is your legacy, and we will
help to make sure that we quarter back properly and
bring in all the right resources to have all of that,
you know, taken care of and watching out for you,
you and your best family and legacy interests overall. So,
(12:41):
if you want to learn more about you know, the
things we discussed on the show. More specifically, if you
want your portfolio reviewed, if you don't have a plan,
we'd be happy to do an initial retirement plan for you.
Once again, you know, no obligation to come in and
see us called ninety six seven thirty five hundred, Well, uh,
(13:04):
you're listening to the Wise Mony Guys radio show. I'm
her co host John Scambray. I'm here with my partner
just Happy Visconi. By the way, we're certified portfolio Managers,
which a lot of people may might not be as
familiar with that credential as they are CFP. CFP is
basically like diamonds. I mean, it's so marketed so that people, right, well,
(13:27):
diamonds are not rare, and really a CFP and cfps
that support us in the background are not rare. There's
I mean the channels that we're with they have hundreds
often of time cfps, and so what is more rare
is things like CPM, Certified Portfolio Manager CFAs, Chartered Financial Analysts,
(13:52):
so on and so forth. Now that's not saying that
CFP isn't good, but for what we do as an
investment expert in your corner, I think CPM is more
important because it is about portfolio construction that's tied to
your plan and your goals and your legacy. It is
about actively managing the harder part of one's you know,
(14:16):
financial plan, which is the actual investments and doing the
best job possible using our fifty years of experience combined
to get you to you know, the promised land. The
promised land meaning what it is that that you need,
wish and want and so as as your portfolio manager,
(14:38):
we feel, and quite frankly, I think a lot of
the industry also feels that that's that's where the rubber
meets the road. That's the harder part of of what
we do, and you just don't want to entrust that
to anyone. And some of the the research, the data,
the studying, the educational, the experience, the things that we
(15:02):
have to do and have under our belt to make
sure we're top of our gain is something that we
find most people aren't willing to do themselves. And more importantly, sadly,
most advisors that aren't you know, or don't have our credentials,
our experience, our background aren't doing for you and so.
Speaker 3 (15:26):
They're outsourcing the third parties to outsourcing the third party
actual fund companies or or what have you. But it
doesn't mean that we discount, you know, or or put
aside or no importance on the planning part, because we
do have robust planning tool and software.
Speaker 4 (15:42):
That yeah over the investment management that we do use,
you know, and you know, back then, having some of
these credentials really did mean a lot more than than
what And again it doesn't not that they don't mean
anything but a CFP back then, you know, thirty years ago,
they actually had to go through and handwrite out.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
Or use you know, you know, word not a word processor.
But basically they put a lot more elbow grease into
it of writing out the plan themselves, right, and you
have to do that to earn your CFP. I've taken
a couple of courses when I was doing my master's
in business and finance. I'm sorry, financing economics. I don't
even know what I took anymore. Too many classes and
(16:23):
you know, but but yeah, I want to do my
master's in finance and economics. I took a couple of
the CFP courses as electives, and they have you they
have you write out certain plans calculated you know, literally
pretty much by hand instead of using software and tools.
But the reality of it is kind of like when
(16:45):
you're going through school, right, you learn algebra and calculus, you.
Speaker 2 (16:49):
Learn how to hand and all that stuff. In an
elementary you don't learn how to write anymore. They don't
teach handwriting.
Speaker 3 (16:55):
Oh my girls, did they actually learned how to.
Speaker 2 (16:57):
Hit the cursive?
Speaker 3 (16:57):
Yeah? Okay, going through private Catholic schools, that might be
a difference, but you don't but you don't use it
in the real world, right, And so the same thing
you know c IFPs today and planners, pairer planners.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
Dance case designers, we have all that they use, all
software at our resources, our part of our fingertips fingertips,
thank you.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
But but they all have software and tools, and so
we also have that software and pay money for it
because we know, because we see an importance in it,
and that's just something that we include. And when we say,
you know, your portfolio has to line up WITHY plan,
that's what I mean. That plan is going through all
that planning process and questionnaire, putting that together from start
(17:40):
to finish, and then and then matching up a portfolio
that aligns with it. But then more importantly, it's your
plan can change, your goals, can change the market, the
economy changes, so then you also have to make certain
adjustments to your portfolio as well. And sometimes that's where
the disconnect happens.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
You know, what's funny is we try to get every
single person to have a written plan as part of
our goal for helping you, so that we have something
to follow that we can review back on and say,
here's how you're doing, here's how we're doing for you.
But at the end of the day, I've never had
(18:20):
anybody go and and and people with a lot of
money go wow, that was an incredible you know plan
that that you wrote. All they care about at the
end of the day is, you know, are we helping
them meet their goals objectives? Right?
Speaker 3 (18:35):
They can I can I retire that? The can I
can I you know, help out my fact, Can I
get my second home? Can I retire early? And it's
just it's simply answering these questions. But I think the
best part of the plan is it gives visual perspection perspective.
Instead of us writing or having calculations and numbers and
graphs and Excel spreadsheets, it actually gives you visual, visual
(18:57):
perspective and simple format of saying, yes, you can hit
your goal. Actually you can do a little bit more,
or there might be some things that we need to
plan for and and you know, you know things that
in the next few years you need to you know,
contribute in order to get to where you want to go,
or you need to make some adjustments or whatever the
(19:17):
case may be.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Yeah, that's that's my favorite. You you went over it
really quickly. But my favorite conversation, and when we're doing
our planning meetings and review and performance of reviews and
things of that nature, is the conversation that goes, you know, actually,
you could be spending more money, you could be you
(19:40):
could increase your monthly income or your quarterly income or
your annual withdrawals or whatever the case may be. And
that that's a pretty hard good thing, especially when then
you can, like you said, you have something that's visual
that you can show somebody, here's what we created for you,
here's how it's doing, and here's the good news. And well,
(20:03):
sometimes it's not that people come in and they obviously
haven't saved enough or they don't have enough income sources,
and it's not always good news. But then we make
the best of that situation too.
Speaker 3 (20:14):
Well.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
I find the way people make ends meet based on
you know, the investment returns that well they'll need and.
Speaker 3 (20:22):
Based on what they can contribute.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
And so either way, the most important thing you can do.
And we started the show off by by be saying,
you know, I wanted to say I told you so
that we're going to see volatility, and they're you know,
to be cautious, and the most important thing you can
do to you know, not be in a bad situation
(20:44):
knowing that we're going to have these different things happen
throughout the year and the years to come is having
that plan, having people like us who are the ones
helping you to weather you know, dips in the market,
corrections in the market, sometimes crashes in the markets. We
had a crash in the market last year that people
(21:07):
quickly forgot about. And if you were holding mag seven
stocks or just funds that primarily had yes eighty nine,
had mag seven as the as the top ten holdings,
you would have and if you didn't have somebody who's
had you properly diversified, had had you know, your your
(21:29):
goals kept in mind things like that, you would have
probably panicked and lost a substantial amount of money. When
you saw your Nvidia go from you know, one forty
or one fifty or whatever the high was last year
to eighty nine, I mean we're talking about a fifty percent,
you know drop, and many well known names did that
(21:53):
last year and starting at the end of the first
quarter or beginning of the second core, and I think
we're going to see exactly that. And I think you're
absolutely crazy if you're not coming in, especially if you're retired,
you're crazy. And you have all the money that you'll
(22:13):
ever have, and you know, and you want to you
want to not run out of money. You want to
pass it on to your family or your charities, whatever,
you want to create that legacy. And at the same time,
you need to give yourself raises every year because of
let's face it, everything's going to continue to get more expensive,
(22:34):
especially if our government doesn't keep its house in order.
Next year, things are going to be more than what
they cost this year and every year after that. And
so that's really a big job to do all on
your own, without somebody like us who does it full time.
And you know, the thing that's important about every quarter
(22:57):
is you know all this dame that comes out, whether
it's data about a specific company and it's earnings, or
it's various reports, you know, and economic indicators that then
kind of set the stage for whether we're going to
go hit a new high in the stock market, favor.
Speaker 3 (23:17):
Supporting the market and the bull market that we've been in.
Speaker 2 (23:20):
Maybe we're going to see interest rates come down in
the fixed income side, in the treasury market, in the
bond market, which would be nice, lending yep on the
lending side, so on and so forth. So you know,
I know there's a lot of headlines out there right now.
I mean, we're we're right in the heart of fourth
quarter earnings. You know. The last the great news is
(23:42):
really over the last three years, most quarters you know,
have been meeting or exceeding earnings estimates and except for
some periods where guidance might have been softer in some quarters,
but but lately even guidance has been good. So what
(24:03):
are some of the things that we're going to see
that will probably either hopefully smooth out volatility or make
volatility worse?
Speaker 3 (24:11):
Well coming up, Yeah, I think that's a good point.
Volatility I think is going to be well, nobody can
pretty in the future. But we know that this this
administration is really tied to the economy in the stock market, so.
Speaker 2 (24:29):
Especially, we're going to tear iff the heck out of
everybody until they give us screenland. But the market goes down. Nope,
I was just kidding.
Speaker 3 (24:42):
So I think there'll be volatility because of that, and
because of just the off the cuff, you know, the
way Trump is and his way about trying to negotiate
and the art of his deal, and.
Speaker 2 (24:54):
That's really all it is. Yeah, it's he's a negotiator
and and and as you see, he gets people force
or blunt to the table to have a conversation through
you know, some of the the tactics like saying we're
going to tear if the heck out of you it
but it works. I mean we're getting things done.
Speaker 3 (25:14):
Yeah, So challenging part on our end is yeah, it'll
come on, it'll go off, and like we don't like,
you know, we're not holding our breath because you know,
a week from now that can come back or whatever
the case may be, and there could be some retaliation
from Europe whatever the case may be. But what's important,
(25:34):
you know, and when you look at these headlines, because
there's all headlines in itself, right, that's what news is about.
It's clickbait. It's what are some hot topics What's going
to make people go on either social media channels or
watch the news on TV. Right, it's all these hot
topics and people want to, oh, what's going on? We
got tear, Oh the European or the Canadians are retaliate,
(25:55):
whatever the case may be. But the data. The nice
about data when it comes to corporate earnings, economic data,
what have you, is that there's no noise, there's no rhetoric.
People are going to talk about it. There's going to
be economists and pundits. But it's either good information, good
data that's coming out, or it's bad. It's one or
the other. So so far, we've had some good economic
(26:18):
data that's been coming out which is showing the resilience
of the US economy and as well as we have overall,
not everything as far as corporate earnings, but overall some
notable corporations out there that have provided some good good
news and beats. But just to go through some of
them and some of the important highlights, GDP growth, domestic products,
(26:39):
it's hey, what's the revenue stream of the US economy
and what does that look like. What's the health of that?
So far good? It was upgraded to four point four
percent annualized growth. When you look back before two thousand
and eight, we were on a trend and kind of
the goal and what makes everybody happy is a three
percent GDP growth rate thousand and eight happened, and it
(27:01):
just put a big dividend.
Speaker 4 (27:02):
It.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
Yeah, we're happy with a zero point one percent growth.
Speaker 3 (27:07):
Yeah, it was. It was very you know, slim and
paltry for like a decade. Uh then you know, it's
it started to come up a little bit, but then
we had COVID and then we'd had some good, good growth,
but then it's you know, for a lot of it's
from stimulus. So right now, since some of that you know,
(27:27):
stimulus is kind of gone, and and hopefully, like you
said earlier, the important part is that they budget right
and they don't continue the spending spree to create stimulus
for for the economy and the government and this data
and put that in check. But four point four percent
anulize growth, which is which is great. There's some projections
(27:48):
that can get up to five percent growth, which is phenomenal.
Outside of that, jobless claims did rise, but it's well
below expectations. And this basically just proves that we have
you know, continued labor market strength and low layoffs.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
And quite frankly, when you see four percent, wow, if
we get to five percent GDP numbers, and yet we're
seeing inflation cpis stay in check. Right, that's even more impressive,
and weirdly to what that adds up for me is that, Okay,
if you get a dip from volatility like we did,
(28:25):
you know, we we put some more capital that was
sitting in cash, you know, in that's in people's accounts
to work for them. You know, because again, part of
your part of a proper asset allocation to us is
there is some percentage of money that's in cash, cash
equivalents or money market, so that you know, you don't
(28:48):
always have one hundred percent of your money in in
in the market and whatever that may be the stock market,
the bond market, you know, alternatives really, so on and
so forth, so that when there are dips, especially if
your economy is still strong, you invest more money in
on the dips, and then when you get record highs,
(29:09):
then you pull some of that money off the table
back into cash.
Speaker 3 (29:12):
Or rebalance into other asset classes. Yeah, because you're a
little bit too heavy PC.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
The other yeah, PC.
Speaker 3 (29:19):
Inflation and personal data basically just inflation data on the
front pretty much came in line, which is great. So
that's in check, just as you were saying, as long
as staying in check, and then overall a couple of areas.
You know, the biggest component to GDP, as I was
talking about before, is consumers and consumer spending, which makes
(29:39):
up about seventy percent of all the calculations of how
they say, oh, we're growing at four point four percent
or so on and so forth. A big component of
that is how you know, what is the temperature of
the consumer? Are they going out and spending their money
on things or services? And data has come out as
far as retail sells, that's jumped by five and a
(30:01):
half percent. So people are spending a lot on shopping
and home projects right now, which is helping spur the
economy and keeping it going. Businesses are also pouring money
into tech and equipment. Not a lot of big news
there a AI and data yep, So they're spending on computers, servers, chips,
(30:22):
all the related gear is booming adder near all time high.
So that's feeling things on the business front, especially in
AI and data centers. Heavy factory data center building was
growing during the Biden era, kind of slowed down during
the beginning of Trump, but What the difference is now
(30:43):
is now we're seeing some of the manufacturing come back
to US and us zals.
Speaker 2 (30:49):
We're seeing plants reopen too. There's a Ford plant which
was big news that Ford had shut down because they
were going to build a plant and I don't know
Mexico or somewhere, don't quote me up on that, but
now they're reopening it. Yeah, you're right, Yeah, it was forward. Yeah,
at least I think it was. Might have been GM
but US.
Speaker 3 (31:09):
You're right. Yeah, So all that data, you know, and
it could be spun one way or another. But what
you want to see is that continuing to improve and
be positive impact to say, hey, overall, is the market
and a market or the economy and a good solid
(31:30):
solid foundation, and are we growing and moving in the
right direction or are we not the other which Larry
Cudlow coins as the mother the mother's milk of right profits.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
Corporate no just corporate.
Speaker 3 (31:44):
Profits, is the mother's milk of the overall market. Right,
that has to be very supportive. If corporations are profiting
and they're continuing to grow, then they're going to continue
to hire, right, which is going to continue to put
more money in consumers pockets and then consumers are going
to go out there and more money on things. You know.
Speaker 2 (32:01):
It's a service that have trickled down, right.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
So some of the notable corporate earnings we had Netflix,
which beat expectations slightly, huge subscriber growth three hundred and
twenty five million.
Speaker 2 (32:12):
By the way, speaking of Netflix, you know, I mean
we had a pretty interesting conversation on the plane or
was it after the plane we were down in Los
Angeles for a meeting for a plane to plan big
potential client partnership. Anyway, And one of the things we
have in our two main kind of equity sleeves that
(32:37):
clients who have you know and need or want equity exposure,
stock exposure. There's two main sleeves that we have. A
growth and income sleeve, which again is an individual income
and growth income and growth sleeve. It's mostly dividend stocks,
and then more aggressive but not purely speculative, which is growth. Yeah,
(33:00):
is the growth. Both of those have Warner Brothers in it,
and that's where Netflix ties in. You know, we did
our research, you more than me as far as looking
into who would be the better winner of the battle
to buy Warner Brothers, Netflix or Paramount, and basically.
Speaker 3 (33:21):
They're both buying to buy Warner Brothers Discovery.
Speaker 2 (33:24):
And here's stuff that we do that you probably don't
even know that it's happening. If you're a client of
ours or a client of another firm, hopefully they're putting
this level of effort into, you know, some sort of
investment model or portfolio that they that you have. But
we came up with really two strong scenarios. If we
(33:45):
started to feel that Paramount was going to be the
winner of buying Warner Brothers, we were going to sell
Warner Brothers. But now that we feel that Netflix is
going to be the winner of the battle to buy
Warner Brothers, that Netflix from a financial perspective is a strong,
is a very strong, much more and more fundamentally sound.
(34:10):
And so now we're going to keep Warner Brothers, which
is at the substantial profit unless something changes. But this
is just an example. And since you mentioned Netflix earnings,
that's when you know we started looking into the fundamentals
of Netflix versus Paramount and who you know would be
a better winner.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
Of how in fact, how in fact Warner I was
going to say effect, but you like to say, like
so that infected me to say that. But yeah, do
we keep Warner Brothers in client portfolios or do we
bust out of it? Because it's actually had some substantial run.
It's had a great run for for literally the months,
not years, but just the months that we've had it,
(34:51):
and it triggered to be added into our portfolio.
Speaker 2 (34:53):
But I just want to end that before I let
you go on. This is the level of things as
your portfolio manager, as your financial planner, as your quarterback,
that we're doing behind the scenes to make sure that, gosh,
we give you the best possible chance of success that
hour again combined fifty years can do. And that's and
(35:17):
it's not easy to do. It takes a lot. And
so we hope you give us a call at nine one,
six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. Gosh, just have
you These shows go by so fast. I mean I
was thinking, Okay, yeah, we'll get to all of these
things that we love to talk about, especially the economy
and things that in fact we like to say your investments.
(35:40):
But here we are, we're uh, we're coming down to
the end here. Keep in mind that all of this
is an effort to help you, you know, make better
decisions when it comes to managing your own money. Ultimately,
we hope that you you hire somebody to help you
manage your money, especially if you're retired, have millions of
(36:01):
dollars and maybe it's just the right amount to to
live the rest of your life, if that's twenty thirty,
maybe even forty years, but mistakes can still be made
that could cost you a substantial amount, that could take
one from you know who has three or four million,
(36:21):
or even a million or five hundred thousand, to being
you know, okay, good or great to in a terrible situation.
And we want to help you and to prevent that
from happening. So once again you can call us at
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. There's
no obligation of any kind. Well, we'd love to sit down,
(36:44):
happy to sit down with you and give you a
second opinion, put eyes on what you've done, what you have,
what we think could be areas of opportunity or areas
to improve, and maybe it's fantastic and you don't need
any help, but we would love to do that for you.
And again there's no obligation, So just give us a
(37:06):
call at nine one, six, nine, six, seven, thirty five hundred.
Let's finish your bullet points there.
Speaker 3 (37:11):
Corporate earnings. Yeah, so we touched on Netflix quite a bit,
but again beat expectations. Huge subscriber growths three hundred and
twenty five million ads doubled, and they expect a strong
twenty twenty six. So good news for Netflix and good
news apparently for Warner Brothers if that continues on and
they end up buying them.
Speaker 2 (37:31):
And so far we're just in the they I would
say early stage of earnings certainly getting close to like
you know, probably by mid February, all of the big
names will have reported. Any volatility that may come from
you know, a really big name will probably be done
by then. But it's funny, we'll still see certain names
(37:55):
that are kind of a bell weather for you know
how the quarter will will kind of transpire and it's
still the well, I have teams, like I have.
Speaker 3 (38:05):
Two names that are kind of bell Weathers, which ones
Johnson and Johnson, A Procter and Gamble right, because they
all those are make all kinds of stuff.
Speaker 2 (38:13):
There one hundred year old plus companies well.
Speaker 3 (38:15):
And they make all kinds of consumer you know, consumer
goods and consumer staples that people just have to have
no matter what's going on in the market economy. So
Johnson and Johnson solid cells this year, predicting one hundred
billion in revenue in twenty twenty six and good profits.
Procter and Gamble not as good. They barely grew, so
they did grow one percent.
Speaker 2 (38:36):
They do pass on a dividend.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
Profits. Yeah, profits are flat and they're keeping steady guidance,
So that's good. But those are you know why we
say those are bell Weathers is because Procter and Gamble
and Johnson Johnson. I mean, if you figure out or
if you think of the prop some of the products
that they make, it's, you know, things that we need.
It could be like deodorants, toothpaste, cleaning supply, things that
(39:01):
you just no matter what the economy is doing, you
just have to go out and buy it right and.
Speaker 2 (39:05):
Have it in your household. You didn't. You didn't set
me up to talk about energy, did you. So there's
no energy here, But there is there is one that
I love energy investments.
Speaker 3 (39:15):
Yeah, there is one company that we are familiar with
and that we do use as a custodian, which we
hadn't mentioned on the on the show. Even though we
are one source wealth management and our own independent firm
RIA registered with SEC, we use some of the big
names as far as custodians of where we house all
of our client's assets and trade institutional side when we
(39:38):
do the portfolio management, and one of them, the largest
one that we use is Charles Schwab. They reported record
revenue up nineteen percent, beat estimates and have a positive outlook.
Speaker 2 (39:47):
God it it was just I forget was it twenty
four or twenty three when man they were in a
big slump. I mean their stock it's sled off drastically.
And again it's those types of things that we look at.
The fundamental Giuseppe really is is more of a technical
uh and and pattern and and momentum expert than I am.
But you combine it together, you know, and you start
(40:10):
finding opportunities and in fact, you know this is it. Uh,
it's really Next week we have another structured note that
we we love, putting a small percentage in everyone's portfolios.
If you want more information on how a structured note
might benefit you, I mean we've also been putting some
(40:33):
private ate investments that you know, they're they they're they're
not ill liquid, They're not as liquid as you know. Uh,
A stock that might trade daily but quarterly tenders great
tax advantaged yields, great long term you know, growth rates
from a total return perspective. But so there's still lots
(40:54):
of exciting things beyond just stocks that will be uh
and and continue to be opportunities this year. So once again,
if if you want to learn more about you know,
the things we discussed on the show, more specifically, if
you want your portfolio reviewed, if you don't have a plan,
(41:16):
we'd be happy to do an initial retirement plan for you,
absolutely no no cost or obligation.
Speaker 3 (41:23):
Or general general financial plan if you're not close to
retirement and you're kind of figuring out like, hey, I
got ten years, can I retire? Or you know, I
have some other financial goals I don't want to try
and achieve. Am I on track? Or am I just
you know, not thinking about this right? And a lot
of times what happens, we'll meet some new prospects and
they have all this money and do some initial and
(41:43):
a lot of times you say, oh yeah, I already
did a plan through their four one K you know portal.
Oh yeah, one of the snap shot one. Yeah, and
it's like very basic, but then we include a lot
more than what you experienced on kind of the basic
And and also what if plans like what if this happens?
Speaker 2 (42:00):
If that shots don't don't stress right? You know, what
if you change your income needs, would have lost some money.
Speaker 3 (42:07):
What if when you retire the first two years or
bad years in the market, how does that change things?
Speaker 2 (42:13):
But if you have you know, health expenses go through
the roof. What if you start taking care of a
family you know, member, Well, we have all kinds of
scenarios what if scenarios that we can put into the
plan that then will really paint a different picture. It's
not intended to scare you, but it's just intended to say, okay,
even if some of these more negative situations happen, will
(42:36):
you be okay? Do you have enough to retire and
be comfortable? As I said and a little bit ago
for twenty thirty forty years. And that's really the power
of that consultation is will help you start, you know,
gaining confidence by knowing the answers to those questions. And
(42:58):
again we're not going to pressure you to you know,
hire us if it makes sense, if we like each other,
if you think our track record, our experience, how we
do things is something that's a good fit for you,
well then maybe then you decide to hire us. But
once again you know, no obligation to come in and
(43:19):
see us called nine one six ninety six seven thirty
five hundred. Well, I hope you enjoyed listening to John
Scambering to Seppi Vescani the wise money guys, we certainly
enjoy talking and as always, have a wonderful Saturday, have
great weekend.
The Wise Money Guys Radio show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys radio show.
I'm your co host, John Scambra, and I'm here with
my partner just after Viscontin, and we are certified portfolio
managers that specialized in helping people who are retired are
about to retire manage their money. If you like our
show as always, you can give us a call to
schedule a no obligation consultation or just to shoot the
(00:33):
breeze by calling nine to one six ninety six seven
thirty five hundred. Also, you can visit our website Wysmoneyguys
dot com and there's all kinds of resources there as
well as important disclosures and information. By scrolling to the
bottom of the page. You can also arrange a no
(00:54):
obligation consultation from there as well by clicking on contact
us and just providing your name, email, and or phone number.
This show is brought to you by One Source Wealth
Management that's SEC number three one nine zero seven eight.
I want to start off the show by first saying, yep,
(01:15):
we are going to talk about things that we see
in the economy, things that we see in the data,
things that are affecting the stock market, the bond market,
investment performance overall. But first, you know, we've been warning
and cautioning that there were certain events that are going
(01:36):
to be similar this year to last year that caused
extreme volatility, and we saw just a little snippet of
it this week from some of those things that we've
been warning people to be cautious, that could really affect you,
especially if all of your money is in stocks, If
(01:58):
all of your money is in one's sort of sector
of stocks as well, then it would be even worse.
But we saw, you know, pressure on on markets and
profits when tariff conversations, you know, we're all over the screen,
all over the news again, which kind of and and
(02:20):
we mentioned this happened from negotiations surrounding talks about the
Greenland becoming part of North America, which it already is.
Quite frankly, nobody's been supporting Greenland more than us. Nobody's
part of North America. It really is.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
It's North American hemisphere going to go drive there next
week and have a little vacation.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Well, there's lots of places you can do, especially in Canada.
But but the point is is that we were saying
that here's some things to look for first, you know,
watch for FED meetings, Watch for inflation data still, watch
for tariff conversations, Watch for earnings results, watch for now
(03:08):
coming up government shut down conversation, because we we we
talked quite a bit about the continuing resolution, how that
the government shut down at the end of last year
was just canceled or the government was reopened with another
cr just a temporary continuing resolution of spending money to
(03:33):
fund the government. But no budget has actually been passed,
So that we don't keep bumping up against this absolutely
contravesty of politicians not doing their job. Their whole job
in Congress is to handle fiscal policy, you know, and
(03:54):
here we are that they can't even do that, and sadly,
when both sides have had a majority, they still don't
pass a budget, or they pass a budget that requires
trillions of spending beyond the revenues going into the federal government.
(04:14):
Which is why we have these big battles lately, is
because fiscally conservative politicians don't want to, you know, pass
a new budget for all the various departments and agencies
and so on and so forth and needs and entitlements
without you know, a serious look and a serious you
(04:38):
know accounting of where's all the money going and where's
all the waste going.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
While we're sitting in thirty eight trillion and debt.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
And debt, and soon in a blank, it'll be forty trillion.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
Hundreds of billions and service per month.
Speaker 2 (04:53):
And three four years from now it'll be fifty trillion.
And eventually, you know, conversations and again I'm gonna be
way out in front here, they'll start talking about a
debt jubilee where they'll just go, oh, the.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
Only this sounds like a fun party.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Yeah, because they'll try to make it, meaning when I
say they are leaders that we elect, will try to
make it sound like, oh, this is this is just
a debt jubilee. You know, you could just literally cancel
all your debt. It won't affect world markets, it won't
affect inflation, it won't affect your insurance's, your credit quality.
It will destroy affects your foundation everything that the United
(05:32):
States stands for, which is safety and security and the
best place to park your money in the world. That
will be gone overnight, just like it's been gone now
for more than a decade. With Greece did a debt jubilee.
You know, Italy throughout you know their recent history has
done what jubilee.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
Twenty tens area between those like twenty fifteen or twenty sixteen,
they had the pigs yep or Ireland, Greece, Italy, Spain.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
Exactly and guess where it led to the worst economies,
the worst recessions, the worst inflation their dollar, complete dollar destruction,
which is really what inflation is by the way you
destroy the value of your dollar. Well, obviously, whatever your
currency is then takes more of it to buy the
(06:25):
same thing, and that's what inflation here is really about.
The more we burden our dollar with debt and deficit,
the more we put pressure on the dollar's value against
other currencies. And the big ones are the yuon obviously,
and the Euro and the Canadian The rest of the
(06:47):
currencies out there, well, I guess you could say the
Pound is very important because obviously Brexit they broke off
and we do have separate trade agreements with the UK.
Other than that, the roob, the Russian currency, any of
the Middle Eastern currencies, you know, the Latin American currencies,
(07:09):
they're pretty much you know, without dollars are worthless.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
So everything's you know, everything kind of ties to dollar.
When there's you know, crisis or chaos. You know, Third
world countries typically go towards the US dollar, right and
especially like you know, Venezuela, Argentina, you know, all those
countries that they start having high inflation or hyperinflation. You
(07:35):
know a lot of people on the will go on
the black market to try and get US dollars, even China,
as big as China, and how much they've been trying
to push the U on and get getting rid of
the petro dollar. You know, I've heard, and I've heard
through some people, personal people and some clients that have
ties or been to China or lived in China's that
(07:55):
a lot of times people try and find ways to
shell out you know, money, your assets from China over
a targeted period of time and bring it to the U. US.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
Yeah, right now, don't mistake this kind of early conversation
we're having in the show that you know, we think
you should run out and put all your money you know,
in gold and hide it in a safe or a
safe deposit box somewhere. No, that's not what it means.
But it does mean that these events team tend to
repeat themselves, and there are ways to reduce your risk
(08:30):
and exposure to certain classes of assets that will get
hit harder than others. And so it doesn't mean that
you don't want, you know, investments in the various asset classes,
but you need to be prudent about how much you
have and and and how much in each you know,
position in a category to be thought that you have,
(08:51):
it's going.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
To be a thoughtful strategy. And like we've talked about
many times before, thoughtful strategy that ligns up with a
plan and and again and you know, to echo what
you said, Yeah, well, all these different events aren't being
discussed because we're worried about the market. Quite the contrary.
I mean, so far, we've had strong economic data and
(09:15):
to go over YEP and corporate earnings that have been
showing the resilience of the US economy and continued growth,
which is great. But a lot of times people, especially
when you're investing money on your own emotions, get involved
into it, and so what worked well for you last time.
You know, maybe you're keeping that process and strategy going,
(09:36):
or maybe there's not much of a process or strategy,
but like hey, I picked these different stocks or funds
and they're doing well. But then some of these events
take place. It can cost some short short term volatility,
some decent drawdowns, meaning that you see your portfolio going
down five, ten, fifteen, twenty percent, and then now you're
starting to panic. Emotions get involved, and then you start
making some rash decisions and changing some things within your portfolio.
(09:58):
There have to be a thoughtful process and strategy around
what these monies are doing for you that are invested,
and then how that aligns with your plan. And then
when these events take place, unless it's major, you don't panic.
You're not managing based off of emotion. You're managing based
off of strategy that has been thought out and put together,
(10:20):
and and you're you're looking at the overall picture, like hey,
tariff conversations arose again because of Greenland. Now they're gone
and everything seems to be, you know, quiet on the front,
but it could arise again. And we have the FEDS
meeting and all the other things that John had spoken
about and then in the next week's coming up. So
(10:40):
how do you go about and make sure that you're
on track? If you don't have a plan, how do
you know if you're on the right track? If these
events take place and you are down five or ten percent,
does that mean that you need to make adjustments? At
that point? You don't know unless you have a plan
right and until that point you can say, hey, I'm
on track? Are these things? Do I really need to
(11:00):
pay attention to these things? Do I really need to
make some adjustments? Or am I just overreacting and making
decisions based off of motion.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
You know, often we spend talking about our favorite subject
on this show, which is obviously the economy and how
it affects investments. I mean, we love investments, we love stocks,
you know, we love planning, and more importantly, we love
helping people with those things. But so many times we
forget to emphasize some of the bigger picture things that
(11:30):
we do for our clients, which is planning, but planning
to where we're also being in essence, your quarterback, you're
consultant that helps you and points you in the right
direction for you know, your trusts, your a state plan,
you know, helping you and pointing you in the right
direction for tax help, things like that. Now, we don't
(11:53):
do preparation, we're not attorneys, we don't do you know,
the trust work ourselves. But part of the plan, and
part of the the benefits of having us on your
team is that we're going to help guide you. We're
going to help make sure you have everything properly structured
so that you know whatever your goals ultimately are. Yes,
(12:16):
it's important what your cash flow goals are and your
cash flow needs are. But at the end of the day,
the most important thing is your legacy, and we will
help to make sure that we quarter back properly and
bring in all the right resources to have all of that,
you know, taken care of and watching out for you,
you and your best family and legacy interests overall. So,
(12:41):
if you want to learn more about you know, the
things we discussed on the show. More specifically, if you
want your portfolio reviewed, if you don't have a plan,
we'd be happy to do an initial retirement plan for you.
Once again, you know, no obligation to come in and
see us called ninety six seven thirty five hundred, Well, uh,
(13:04):
you're listening to the Wise Mony Guys radio show. I'm
her co host John Scambray. I'm here with my partner
just Happy Visconi. By the way, we're certified portfolio Managers,
which a lot of people may might not be as
familiar with that credential as they are CFP. CFP is
basically like diamonds. I mean, it's so marketed so that people, right, well,
(13:27):
diamonds are not rare, and really a CFP and cfps
that support us in the background are not rare. There's
I mean the channels that we're with they have hundreds
often of time cfps, and so what is more rare
is things like CPM, Certified Portfolio Manager CFAs, Chartered Financial Analysts,
(13:52):
so on and so forth. Now that's not saying that
CFP isn't good, but for what we do as an
investment expert in your corner, I think CPM is more
important because it is about portfolio construction that's tied to
your plan and your goals and your legacy. It is
about actively managing the harder part of one's you know,
(14:16):
financial plan, which is the actual investments and doing the
best job possible using our fifty years of experience combined
to get you to you know, the promised land. The
promised land meaning what it is that that you need,
wish and want and so as as your portfolio manager,
(14:38):
we feel, and quite frankly, I think a lot of
the industry also feels that that's that's where the rubber
meets the road. That's the harder part of of what
we do, and you just don't want to entrust that
to anyone. And some of the the research, the data,
the studying, the educational, the experience, the things that we
(15:02):
have to do and have under our belt to make
sure we're top of our gain is something that we
find most people aren't willing to do themselves. And more importantly, sadly,
most advisors that aren't you know, or don't have our credentials,
our experience, our background aren't doing for you and so.
Speaker 3 (15:26):
They're outsourcing the third parties to outsourcing the third party
actual fund companies or or what have you. But it
doesn't mean that we discount, you know, or or put
aside or no importance on the planning part, because we
do have robust planning tool and software.
Speaker 4 (15:42):
That yeah over the investment management that we do use,
you know, and you know, back then, having some of
these credentials really did mean a lot more than than
what And again it doesn't not that they don't mean
anything but a CFP back then, you know, thirty years ago,
they actually had to go through and handwrite out.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
Or use you know, you know, word not a word processor.
But basically they put a lot more elbow grease into
it of writing out the plan themselves, right, and you
have to do that to earn your CFP. I've taken
a couple of courses when I was doing my master's
in business and finance. I'm sorry, financing economics. I don't
even know what I took anymore. Too many classes and
(16:23):
you know, but but yeah, I want to do my
master's in finance and economics. I took a couple of
the CFP courses as electives, and they have you they
have you write out certain plans calculated you know, literally
pretty much by hand instead of using software and tools.
But the reality of it is kind of like when
(16:45):
you're going through school, right, you learn algebra and calculus, you.
Speaker 2 (16:49):
Learn how to hand and all that stuff. In an
elementary you don't learn how to write anymore. They don't
teach handwriting.
Speaker 3 (16:55):
Oh my girls, did they actually learned how to.
Speaker 2 (16:57):
Hit the cursive?
Speaker 3 (16:57):
Yeah? Okay, going through private Catholic schools, that might be
a difference, but you don't but you don't use it
in the real world, right, And so the same thing
you know c IFPs today and planners, pairer planners.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
Dance case designers, we have all that they use, all
software at our resources, our part of our fingertips fingertips,
thank you.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
But but they all have software and tools, and so
we also have that software and pay money for it
because we know, because we see an importance in it,
and that's just something that we include. And when we say,
you know, your portfolio has to line up WITHY plan,
that's what I mean. That plan is going through all
that planning process and questionnaire, putting that together from start
(17:40):
to finish, and then and then matching up a portfolio
that aligns with it. But then more importantly, it's your
plan can change, your goals, can change the market, the
economy changes, so then you also have to make certain
adjustments to your portfolio as well. And sometimes that's where
the disconnect happens.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
You know, what's funny is we try to get every
single person to have a written plan as part of
our goal for helping you, so that we have something
to follow that we can review back on and say,
here's how you're doing, here's how we're doing for you.
But at the end of the day, I've never had
(18:20):
anybody go and and and people with a lot of
money go wow, that was an incredible you know plan
that that you wrote. All they care about at the
end of the day is, you know, are we helping
them meet their goals objectives? Right?
Speaker 3 (18:35):
They can I can I retire that? The can I
can I you know, help out my fact, Can I
get my second home? Can I retire early? And it's
just it's simply answering these questions. But I think the
best part of the plan is it gives visual perspection perspective.
Instead of us writing or having calculations and numbers and
graphs and Excel spreadsheets, it actually gives you visual, visual
(18:57):
perspective and simple format of saying, yes, you can hit
your goal. Actually you can do a little bit more,
or there might be some things that we need to
plan for and and you know, you know things that
in the next few years you need to you know,
contribute in order to get to where you want to go,
or you need to make some adjustments or whatever the
(19:17):
case may be.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Yeah, that's that's my favorite. You you went over it
really quickly. But my favorite conversation, and when we're doing
our planning meetings and review and performance of reviews and
things of that nature, is the conversation that goes, you know, actually,
you could be spending more money, you could be you
(19:40):
could increase your monthly income or your quarterly income or
your annual withdrawals or whatever the case may be. And
that that's a pretty hard good thing, especially when then
you can, like you said, you have something that's visual
that you can show somebody, here's what we created for you,
here's how it's doing, and here's the good news. And well,
(20:03):
sometimes it's not that people come in and they obviously
haven't saved enough or they don't have enough income sources,
and it's not always good news. But then we make
the best of that situation too.
Speaker 3 (20:14):
Well.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
I find the way people make ends meet based on
you know, the investment returns that well they'll need and.
Speaker 3 (20:22):
Based on what they can contribute.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
And so either way, the most important thing you can do.
And we started the show off by by be saying,
you know, I wanted to say I told you so
that we're going to see volatility, and they're you know,
to be cautious, and the most important thing you can
do to you know, not be in a bad situation
(20:44):
knowing that we're going to have these different things happen
throughout the year and the years to come is having
that plan, having people like us who are the ones
helping you to weather you know, dips in the market,
corrections in the market, sometimes crashes in the markets. We
had a crash in the market last year that people
(21:07):
quickly forgot about. And if you were holding mag seven
stocks or just funds that primarily had yes eighty nine,
had mag seven as the as the top ten holdings,
you would have and if you didn't have somebody who's
had you properly diversified, had had you know, your your
(21:29):
goals kept in mind things like that, you would have
probably panicked and lost a substantial amount of money. When
you saw your Nvidia go from you know, one forty
or one fifty or whatever the high was last year
to eighty nine, I mean we're talking about a fifty percent,
you know drop, and many well known names did that
(21:53):
last year and starting at the end of the first
quarter or beginning of the second core, and I think
we're going to see exactly that. And I think you're
absolutely crazy if you're not coming in, especially if you're retired,
you're crazy. And you have all the money that you'll
(22:13):
ever have, and you know, and you want to you
want to not run out of money. You want to
pass it on to your family or your charities, whatever,
you want to create that legacy. And at the same time,
you need to give yourself raises every year because of
let's face it, everything's going to continue to get more expensive,
(22:34):
especially if our government doesn't keep its house in order.
Next year, things are going to be more than what
they cost this year and every year after that. And
so that's really a big job to do all on
your own, without somebody like us who does it full time.
And you know, the thing that's important about every quarter
(22:57):
is you know all this dame that comes out, whether
it's data about a specific company and it's earnings, or
it's various reports, you know, and economic indicators that then
kind of set the stage for whether we're going to
go hit a new high in the stock market, favor.
Speaker 3 (23:17):
Supporting the market and the bull market that we've been in.
Speaker 2 (23:20):
Maybe we're going to see interest rates come down in
the fixed income side, in the treasury market, in the
bond market, which would be nice, lending yep on the
lending side, so on and so forth. So you know,
I know there's a lot of headlines out there right now.
I mean, we're we're right in the heart of fourth
quarter earnings. You know. The last the great news is
(23:42):
really over the last three years, most quarters you know,
have been meeting or exceeding earnings estimates and except for
some periods where guidance might have been softer in some quarters,
but but lately even guidance has been good. So what
(24:03):
are some of the things that we're going to see
that will probably either hopefully smooth out volatility or make
volatility worse?
Speaker 3 (24:11):
Well coming up, Yeah, I think that's a good point.
Volatility I think is going to be well, nobody can
pretty in the future. But we know that this this
administration is really tied to the economy in the stock market, so.
Speaker 2 (24:29):
Especially, we're going to tear iff the heck out of
everybody until they give us screenland. But the market goes down. Nope,
I was just kidding.
Speaker 3 (24:42):
So I think there'll be volatility because of that, and
because of just the off the cuff, you know, the
way Trump is and his way about trying to negotiate
and the art of his deal, and.
Speaker 2 (24:54):
That's really all it is. Yeah, it's he's a negotiator
and and and as you see, he gets people force
or blunt to the table to have a conversation through
you know, some of the the tactics like saying we're
going to tear if the heck out of you it
but it works. I mean we're getting things done.
Speaker 3 (25:14):
Yeah, So challenging part on our end is yeah, it'll
come on, it'll go off, and like we don't like,
you know, we're not holding our breath because you know,
a week from now that can come back or whatever
the case may be, and there could be some retaliation
from Europe whatever the case may be. But what's important,
(25:34):
you know, and when you look at these headlines, because
there's all headlines in itself, right, that's what news is about.
It's clickbait. It's what are some hot topics What's going
to make people go on either social media channels or
watch the news on TV. Right, it's all these hot
topics and people want to, oh, what's going on? We
got tear, Oh the European or the Canadians are retaliate,
(25:55):
whatever the case may be. But the data. The nice
about data when it comes to corporate earnings, economic data,
what have you, is that there's no noise, there's no rhetoric.
People are going to talk about it. There's going to
be economists and pundits. But it's either good information, good
data that's coming out, or it's bad. It's one or
the other. So so far, we've had some good economic
(26:18):
data that's been coming out which is showing the resilience
of the US economy and as well as we have overall,
not everything as far as corporate earnings, but overall some
notable corporations out there that have provided some good good
news and beats. But just to go through some of
them and some of the important highlights, GDP growth, domestic products,
(26:39):
it's hey, what's the revenue stream of the US economy
and what does that look like. What's the health of that?
So far good? It was upgraded to four point four
percent annualized growth. When you look back before two thousand
and eight, we were on a trend and kind of
the goal and what makes everybody happy is a three
percent GDP growth rate thousand and eight happened, and it
(27:01):
just put a big dividend.
Speaker 4 (27:02):
It.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
Yeah, we're happy with a zero point one percent growth.
Speaker 3 (27:07):
Yeah, it was. It was very you know, slim and
paltry for like a decade. Uh then you know, it's
it started to come up a little bit, but then
we had COVID and then we'd had some good, good growth,
but then it's you know, for a lot of it's
from stimulus. So right now, since some of that you know,
(27:27):
stimulus is kind of gone, and and hopefully, like you
said earlier, the important part is that they budget right
and they don't continue the spending spree to create stimulus
for for the economy and the government and this data
and put that in check. But four point four percent
anulize growth, which is which is great. There's some projections
(27:48):
that can get up to five percent growth, which is phenomenal.
Outside of that, jobless claims did rise, but it's well
below expectations. And this basically just proves that we have
you know, continued labor market strength and low layoffs.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
And quite frankly, when you see four percent, wow, if
we get to five percent GDP numbers, and yet we're
seeing inflation cpis stay in check. Right, that's even more impressive,
and weirdly to what that adds up for me is that, Okay,
if you get a dip from volatility like we did,
(28:25):
you know, we we put some more capital that was
sitting in cash, you know, in that's in people's accounts
to work for them. You know, because again, part of
your part of a proper asset allocation to us is
there is some percentage of money that's in cash, cash
equivalents or money market, so that you know, you don't
(28:48):
always have one hundred percent of your money in in
in the market and whatever that may be the stock market,
the bond market, you know, alternatives really, so on and
so forth, so that when there are dips, especially if
your economy is still strong, you invest more money in
on the dips, and then when you get record highs,
(29:09):
then you pull some of that money off the table
back into cash.
Speaker 3 (29:12):
Or rebalance into other asset classes. Yeah, because you're a
little bit too heavy PC.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
The other yeah, PC.
Speaker 3 (29:19):
Inflation and personal data basically just inflation data on the
front pretty much came in line, which is great. So
that's in check, just as you were saying, as long
as staying in check, and then overall a couple of areas.
You know, the biggest component to GDP, as I was
talking about before, is consumers and consumer spending, which makes
(29:39):
up about seventy percent of all the calculations of how
they say, oh, we're growing at four point four percent
or so on and so forth. A big component of
that is how you know, what is the temperature of
the consumer? Are they going out and spending their money
on things or services? And data has come out as
far as retail sells, that's jumped by five and a
(30:01):
half percent. So people are spending a lot on shopping
and home projects right now, which is helping spur the
economy and keeping it going. Businesses are also pouring money
into tech and equipment. Not a lot of big news
there a AI and data yep, So they're spending on computers, servers, chips,
(30:22):
all the related gear is booming adder near all time high.
So that's feeling things on the business front, especially in
AI and data centers. Heavy factory data center building was
growing during the Biden era, kind of slowed down during
the beginning of Trump, but What the difference is now
(30:43):
is now we're seeing some of the manufacturing come back
to US and us zals.
Speaker 2 (30:49):
We're seeing plants reopen too. There's a Ford plant which
was big news that Ford had shut down because they
were going to build a plant and I don't know
Mexico or somewhere, don't quote me up on that, but
now they're reopening it. Yeah, you're right, Yeah, it was forward. Yeah,
at least I think it was. Might have been GM
but US.
Speaker 3 (31:09):
You're right. Yeah, So all that data, you know, and
it could be spun one way or another. But what
you want to see is that continuing to improve and
be positive impact to say, hey, overall, is the market
and a market or the economy and a good solid
(31:30):
solid foundation, and are we growing and moving in the
right direction or are we not the other which Larry
Cudlow coins as the mother the mother's milk of right profits.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
Corporate no just corporate.
Speaker 3 (31:44):
Profits, is the mother's milk of the overall market. Right,
that has to be very supportive. If corporations are profiting
and they're continuing to grow, then they're going to continue
to hire, right, which is going to continue to put
more money in consumers pockets and then consumers are going
to go out there and more money on things. You know.
Speaker 2 (32:01):
It's a service that have trickled down, right.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
So some of the notable corporate earnings we had Netflix,
which beat expectations slightly, huge subscriber growth three hundred and
twenty five million.
Speaker 2 (32:12):
By the way, speaking of Netflix, you know, I mean
we had a pretty interesting conversation on the plane or
was it after the plane we were down in Los
Angeles for a meeting for a plane to plan big
potential client partnership. Anyway, And one of the things we
have in our two main kind of equity sleeves that
(32:37):
clients who have you know and need or want equity exposure,
stock exposure. There's two main sleeves that we have. A
growth and income sleeve, which again is an individual income
and growth income and growth sleeve. It's mostly dividend stocks,
and then more aggressive but not purely speculative, which is growth. Yeah,
(33:00):
is the growth. Both of those have Warner Brothers in it,
and that's where Netflix ties in. You know, we did
our research, you more than me as far as looking
into who would be the better winner of the battle
to buy Warner Brothers, Netflix or Paramount, and basically.
Speaker 3 (33:21):
They're both buying to buy Warner Brothers Discovery.
Speaker 2 (33:24):
And here's stuff that we do that you probably don't
even know that it's happening. If you're a client of
ours or a client of another firm, hopefully they're putting
this level of effort into, you know, some sort of
investment model or portfolio that they that you have. But
we came up with really two strong scenarios. If we
(33:45):
started to feel that Paramount was going to be the
winner of buying Warner Brothers, we were going to sell
Warner Brothers. But now that we feel that Netflix is
going to be the winner of the battle to buy
Warner Brothers, that Netflix from a financial perspective is a strong,
is a very strong, much more and more fundamentally sound.
(34:10):
And so now we're going to keep Warner Brothers, which
is at the substantial profit unless something changes. But this
is just an example. And since you mentioned Netflix earnings,
that's when you know we started looking into the fundamentals
of Netflix versus Paramount and who you know would be
a better winner.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
Of how in fact, how in fact Warner I was
going to say effect, but you like to say, like
so that infected me to say that. But yeah, do
we keep Warner Brothers in client portfolios or do we
bust out of it? Because it's actually had some substantial run.
It's had a great run for for literally the months,
not years, but just the months that we've had it,
(34:51):
and it triggered to be added into our portfolio.
Speaker 2 (34:53):
But I just want to end that before I let
you go on. This is the level of things as
your portfolio manager, as your financial planner, as your quarterback,
that we're doing behind the scenes to make sure that, gosh,
we give you the best possible chance of success that
hour again combined fifty years can do. And that's and
(35:17):
it's not easy to do. It takes a lot. And
so we hope you give us a call at nine one,
six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. Gosh, just have
you These shows go by so fast. I mean I
was thinking, Okay, yeah, we'll get to all of these
things that we love to talk about, especially the economy
and things that in fact we like to say your investments.
(35:40):
But here we are, we're uh, we're coming down to
the end here. Keep in mind that all of this
is an effort to help you, you know, make better
decisions when it comes to managing your own money. Ultimately,
we hope that you you hire somebody to help you
manage your money, especially if you're retired, have millions of
(36:01):
dollars and maybe it's just the right amount to to
live the rest of your life, if that's twenty thirty,
maybe even forty years, but mistakes can still be made
that could cost you a substantial amount, that could take
one from you know who has three or four million,
(36:21):
or even a million or five hundred thousand, to being
you know, okay, good or great to in a terrible situation.
And we want to help you and to prevent that
from happening. So once again you can call us at
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. There's
no obligation of any kind. Well, we'd love to sit down,
(36:44):
happy to sit down with you and give you a
second opinion, put eyes on what you've done, what you have,
what we think could be areas of opportunity or areas
to improve, and maybe it's fantastic and you don't need
any help, but we would love to do that for you.
And again there's no obligation, So just give us a
(37:06):
call at nine one, six, nine, six, seven, thirty five hundred.
Let's finish your bullet points there.
Speaker 3 (37:11):
Corporate earnings. Yeah, so we touched on Netflix quite a bit,
but again beat expectations. Huge subscriber growths three hundred and
twenty five million ads doubled, and they expect a strong
twenty twenty six. So good news for Netflix and good
news apparently for Warner Brothers if that continues on and
they end up buying them.
Speaker 2 (37:31):
And so far we're just in the they I would
say early stage of earnings certainly getting close to like
you know, probably by mid February, all of the big
names will have reported. Any volatility that may come from
you know, a really big name will probably be done
by then. But it's funny, we'll still see certain names
(37:55):
that are kind of a bell weather for you know
how the quarter will will kind of transpire and it's
still the well, I have teams, like I have.
Speaker 3 (38:05):
Two names that are kind of bell Weathers, which ones
Johnson and Johnson, A Procter and Gamble right, because they
all those are make all kinds of stuff.
Speaker 2 (38:13):
There one hundred year old plus companies well.
Speaker 3 (38:15):
And they make all kinds of consumer you know, consumer
goods and consumer staples that people just have to have
no matter what's going on in the market economy. So
Johnson and Johnson solid cells this year, predicting one hundred
billion in revenue in twenty twenty six and good profits.
Procter and Gamble not as good. They barely grew, so
they did grow one percent.
Speaker 2 (38:36):
They do pass on a dividend.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
Profits. Yeah, profits are flat and they're keeping steady guidance,
So that's good. But those are you know why we
say those are bell Weathers is because Procter and Gamble
and Johnson Johnson. I mean, if you figure out or
if you think of the prop some of the products
that they make, it's, you know, things that we need.
It could be like deodorants, toothpaste, cleaning supply, things that
(39:01):
you just no matter what the economy is doing, you
just have to go out and buy it right and.
Speaker 2 (39:05):
Have it in your household. You didn't. You didn't set
me up to talk about energy, did you. So there's
no energy here, But there is there is one that
I love energy investments.
Speaker 3 (39:15):
Yeah, there is one company that we are familiar with
and that we do use as a custodian, which we
hadn't mentioned on the on the show. Even though we
are one source wealth management and our own independent firm
RIA registered with SEC, we use some of the big
names as far as custodians of where we house all
of our client's assets and trade institutional side when we
(39:38):
do the portfolio management, and one of them, the largest
one that we use is Charles Schwab. They reported record
revenue up nineteen percent, beat estimates and have a positive outlook.
Speaker 2 (39:47):
God it it was just I forget was it twenty
four or twenty three when man they were in a
big slump. I mean their stock it's sled off drastically.
And again it's those types of things that we look at.
The fundamental Giuseppe really is is more of a technical
uh and and pattern and and momentum expert than I am.
But you combine it together, you know, and you start
(40:10):
finding opportunities and in fact, you know this is it. Uh,
it's really Next week we have another structured note that
we we love, putting a small percentage in everyone's portfolios.
If you want more information on how a structured note
might benefit you, I mean we've also been putting some
(40:33):
private ate investments that you know, they're they they're they're
not ill liquid, They're not as liquid as you know. Uh,
A stock that might trade daily but quarterly tenders great
tax advantaged yields, great long term you know, growth rates
from a total return perspective. But so there's still lots
(40:54):
of exciting things beyond just stocks that will be uh
and and continue to be opportunities this year. So once again,
if if you want to learn more about you know,
the things we discussed on the show, more specifically, if
you want your portfolio reviewed, if you don't have a plan,
(41:16):
we'd be happy to do an initial retirement plan for you,
absolutely no no cost or obligation.
Speaker 3 (41:23):
Or general general financial plan if you're not close to
retirement and you're kind of figuring out like, hey, I
got ten years, can I retire? Or you know, I
have some other financial goals I don't want to try
and achieve. Am I on track? Or am I just
you know, not thinking about this right? And a lot
of times what happens, we'll meet some new prospects and
they have all this money and do some initial and
(41:43):
a lot of times you say, oh yeah, I already
did a plan through their four one K you know portal.
Oh yeah, one of the snap shot one. Yeah, and
it's like very basic, but then we include a lot
more than what you experienced on kind of the basic
And and also what if plans like what if this happens?
Speaker 2 (42:00):
If that shots don't don't stress right? You know, what
if you change your income needs, would have lost some money.
Speaker 3 (42:07):
What if when you retire the first two years or
bad years in the market, how does that change things?
Speaker 2 (42:13):
But if you have you know, health expenses go through
the roof. What if you start taking care of a
family you know, member, Well, we have all kinds of
scenarios what if scenarios that we can put into the
plan that then will really paint a different picture. It's
not intended to scare you, but it's just intended to say, okay,
even if some of these more negative situations happen, will
(42:36):
you be okay? Do you have enough to retire and
be comfortable? As I said and a little bit ago
for twenty thirty forty years. And that's really the power
of that consultation is will help you start, you know,
gaining confidence by knowing the answers to those questions. And
(42:58):
again we're not going to pressure you to you know,
hire us if it makes sense, if we like each other,
if you think our track record, our experience, how we
do things is something that's a good fit for you,
well then maybe then you decide to hire us. But
once again you know, no obligation to come in and
(43:19):
see us called nine one six ninety six seven thirty
five hundred. Well, I hope you enjoyed listening to John
Scambering to Seppi Vescani the wise money guys, we certainly
enjoy talking and as always, have a wonderful Saturday, have
great weekend.
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