January 4, 2026 • 43 mins
Its a new year and lots of new things are happening across the markets. Host John and Guiseppe take us through their predictions for 2026. Plus, the futures markets, Big Tech, evolving Interest Rates, and what we see coming over the next 12 months. The Wise Money Guys.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show.
I'm your co host again, John Scambray, and I'm here
with my partner Giuseppe Visconti, and we are certified portfolio
managers that specialize in helping people who are retired are
about to retire manage their money. As always, if you
like our show and have any questions or want to
arrange a no obligation consultation, which we highly suggest you do,
(00:37):
especially before the year's over or at least early on
in the new year, give us a call at nine
to one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. So
last week, Jusseppe, I don't know if you tuned into
my wonderful show by myself.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
I saw a couple shorts on YouTube. Okay, so since
we had to mention that if you want to see us,
you know, put a face to the voice, you can
search us on YouTube and our recorded live radio show
also hits YouTube and you can just search us either
John Scambray just subt Visconti or the Wise Money guys
(01:14):
and will pop up and it'll come up with a
whole episode. And then also some some shorts, some snippets,
usually a couple YouTube shorts. So yeah, I did see
a couple of them, one of kind of your forecasts
of twenty twenty six, and then another one I think
on tariffs.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
Yes, so I think that's what we need to talk
about this morning. So just to give you a brief
overview of our conversation and lots of bullet points I
see that you have, so you're you're rare and and
ready to go. But last week I talked a little
bit about things that happened in twenty twenty five, like
the big beautiful Bill, tariffs of course, the government shut down,
(01:59):
things of that name nature, the budget not being passed,
and a continuing resolution just being the solution that keeps
kicking the can down the road. I went over briefly
some of the tax deductions or tax deduction extensions that
were found that are going to kick off in twenty
(02:21):
twenty six that haven't been this year in twenty for
this year's taxes, so you know, economically what I thought,
some bigger tax refunds coming April. That's what they're projecting.
And so we'll continue the conversation now focusing now that
you're back on twenty twenty six and some of the
(02:41):
themes of twenty twenty six, which I already mentioned. And
guess what, before it even hit the news, I said,
look for some of the same from twenty twenty five
being some of the the headwinds in twenty twenty six,
which is government shut down budget.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
January thirtieth year.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
And sure enough, literally like the next day after the show,
uh they started saying, oh, well, gosh, now they're talking
about a government shut down again already. And and and
that's why we see some of the volatility that we're seeing,
is because it just puts a little more uncertainty, uh
in in in the market that certainly we don't need
(03:23):
right now with so many other things kind of just
on the the precipice of either going off a cliff
or being absolutely one of the best years. You know,
And I think over a long time.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
I think overall this is this is gonna be. This
isn't as good as last year or the year before.
As far as returns but definitely a good year double
digit return, and I think we'll finish as a double
digit return. We'll probably have a little bit of a
Santa and Sanna will come visit us here late later
part of the month. But yeah, it's not without any
(04:00):
obstacles here in the near future, especially the government shutdown,
because the biggest thing with that is having to figure
out the healthcare situation.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Yeah. Well, some things that just happened, which is really
really big news is the House passed the healthcare bill
that they've been trying to pass for many, many months now,
and it was without the ACA the Affordable Care Act subsidies. Now, please,
(04:35):
you know know what that really means. Subsidies weren't subsidies
to American insurance payers. They were subsidies to American insurance companies.
So the only thing that the Affordable Care Act subsidies
did was make insurance companies profitability go through the roof
(05:02):
and people's premiums, families premiums go through the roof, which
is the exact opposite. If you're gonna pass anything or
put something out there, it should be for the benefit
of individuals and families and small business, not gigantic insurance companies,
(05:23):
and over and over again we talk about the affordability
of health care. That's that's a total you know, wash
job or con job, because healthcare is not the conversation.
Everybody has health care. Everybody can go to a hospital
and get health care, whether you're a citizen, whether exactly
(05:47):
what all this has been about was big bribes to
insurance companies who then turned around and made huge kickbacks
to the coffers of the Democratic you know party and
their foundations and their you know, their pet projects, and
(06:08):
so the two big things that are in this this
healthcare bill, which is an actual healthcare bill, was reducing
prescription drug prices through the Favored nation parts of the
New health Care Bill, and then getting rid of the
Obama uh, the the Affordable Care Act subsidy, which again
(06:33):
didn't go into the pockets of families or businesses.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
Didn't make it more affordable.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
It did not make it more affordable. In fact, it
may be the right title of it. I mean, my
premium just went for just me is going from seven
hundred and sixty five dollars a month to twelve hundred
and eight dollars a month, and my health insurance coverages
got worse. My deductible is big, my out of pocket
(07:01):
overall out of pocket is bigger, and my office visits,
everything is more. And the premium went up. You know
what is that?
Speaker 3 (07:11):
Is your care better though?
Speaker 2 (07:12):
No? No, went up sixty percent.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
Yeah, so well, and that's a huge That is a
huge pain point for individuals, especially who are looking to
retire early before they're eligible for age of medicare. Is
figuring out, you know, can I retire early? Can I
retire at sixty or sixty two or whatever and bridge
(07:38):
the gap for the three or five years until I'm
eligible for medicare and pay the premium because it's huge,
and it's it's huge for those who are looking to
retire earlier before they're eligible for medicare. It's also huge
for people who are wanting to be you know, have
the entrepreneurial spirit and go out there and say, hey,
I want to run my own business or be a
part of the business or so on and so forth,
(07:59):
because that's it's expensive. I have a family friend is
basically my cousin and.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
He's paying everybody's a cousin when you're Italian. Yeah, by
the waybody forget about it, forget about it.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
But he's paying literally over three thousand dollars a month
family for a family of fours, got two little kids,
his wife was pregnant at the time, so he got,
you know, the higher end coverage. But that's not without
a deductible.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
He still has ten thousand dollars annual.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
Still, no, it's lower than that because you got a
higher coverage. Good, but he's paying I think like thirty
three or thirty four hundred dollars a month.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
That's net.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
So you get that out, that's almost forty thousand dollars
a year. That's out of pocket. You have to gross
at least sixty five thousand dollars a year just to
just to net them out to cover your insurance.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
You know, it's so sad. Is not a single left
side of the aisle, and they're far left voted to
reduce your healthcare premiums. All of them want sure that
the your health is going to be the premium.
Speaker 3 (09:01):
Is just going to be the pickle. In January, this
absolutely going.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
To be best well. And still keep in mind that
this just made it through the House, it has not
made it through the Senate yet, and obviously if it
hasn't made it through the Senate, and then you know
it's not to the President's desk to sign. But it's
a huge step forward, and it's extremely important to rein
(09:25):
back in the cost of health insurance. Stop being lied
to that this has anything to do with health care,
the Affordable Care Act, and this this this new healthcare
bill is a health insurance and reducing the cost of
prescription drugs and health insurance. And that is what is
(09:50):
something that's gigantic for twenty twenty six because if that
is the case again, now, one of the things that
I was mentioning for twenty twenty is that if consumers
or the public has more money in their pocket because
they pay less taxes, and now if they pay less
(10:11):
insurance health insurance, and if they pay less for groceries
and gash, gas and energy, all that sets us up
for is another great market because that additional tree.
Speaker 3 (10:26):
Up some discretionary income.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
Gets spent on goods and services, gets spent on investments,
savings that will help, you know, increase return on investment
because if if more revenue is been being generated on
goods and services because people have more money to spend, well,
then guess what goes up, stock prices go up.
Speaker 3 (10:49):
Well, the whole economy, right everything. Consumer spending is about
seventy percent of the economy, so huge, huge, So we
can we can and we can dive more into the
inflation data that just recently came out this week and
some of the components that have really come down that
has helped the pocket book and of what you're saying
(11:12):
actually unfold next year, and we'll continue.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
On and keep in mind how important it is. One
of the major things that we talked about last weekend
was having a plan or updating your plan or reviewing
your portfolio to make sure you're positioned for a good
year in the right sort of investments that are what
(11:35):
I think will be the sweet spot next year versus
what was the sweet spot this year. So give us
a call at nine one six nine six seven thirty
five hundred and let's dive into data data. We are
a show from Star Trek Data. By the way, So
in order to keep talking about twenty twenty six, we've
got to keep talking about twenty twenty five because will
(12:00):
still be a big theme in twenty twenty six, is
it under control? Employment will be a big thing in
twenty twenty six. You know, we've already mentioned that the budget,
a potential government shut down, you know, tax policy, tariff policy,
all these things will be a major impact to the
(12:20):
returns that you make on your money, to the income
you can generate from your money, so on and so forth.
So let's let's kind of dive in a little bit
to some of this end of the user data that's
come out. And I see, did you mention pages note.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
Did you mention unemployment? Last week?
Speaker 2 (12:37):
I ticked up? You know, I don't recall it.
Speaker 3 (12:40):
Yeah, so unemployment ticked up to four point six with
the job numbers. The job numbers actually were a little
bit better than anticipated. But I think it's the all
the federal employees that were flooding the market, right, I
think that padded the unemployment in the past few years. Right,
they've been coming off the books. So think about that.
(13:02):
That's a net savings to taxpayers. Oh right, So.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
If there's if there's unemployment that you want, it's bureaucracy
unemployment increasing that you want run it.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
More efficiently instead of just all the spending exactly. But
the most recent inflation data, the CPI that came out again,
you know, it's uh impacted a little bit because we
did we had the government shutdown. But the November numbers
came down to two point seven percent, so down from
three percent, lower than anticipated, which is great. Core CPI,
(13:38):
which is a consumer price index, the main inflation. Core
takes out food and energy, which is more volatile. FED
you like to look at these numbers more so than
just the headline CPI or the headline inflation, which involves
everything out there. Two point six percent also down three percent,
so when you're looking at the trend, it's been coming.
(14:00):
These most recent numbers are softer than anticipated, which is
great news because we're going in the right direction. It's
not yet to the two percent like the FED wants,
but we're going in the right direction. There are some
pundits out there saying like, oh, they're skeptical about the
numbers because the government shut down. It's a little noisy,
we don't have all the data, so on and so forth.
(14:20):
But the data that we do have, and who knows,
bls I want to be surprised they revise it once again. Yeah,
but these are in the right direction, the direction that
we want them to be and where they're going. The
key components that is contributing to John was talking about
earlier of what's really helping out the consumer here. Shelter
(14:42):
and housing costs have come down.
Speaker 2 (14:44):
Food, well, Lenar is lowering their production. Home prices they're stucks.
They're twenty to seven percent. And Lennar is one of
the biggest builders, if not the biggest builder in the country.
And I mean again, that's a major People have been waiting, Oh,
I'm waiting for interest rates to go down. I'm waiting
(15:06):
for home prices to go down. Well, guess what home
prices are down. They're even down. Well, maybe not in
the very specialty you know, real estate bubble areas like
a beachfront home or barrier you know, or something like that,
but overall where most Americans can afford to live, all
home prices are down, and and rates as far as
(15:29):
a thirty year mortgage dipped into the fives so hi fi,
which is which is fantastic.
Speaker 3 (15:35):
Yeah, And all of these new home builders I've seen,
you know, they're coming out with a lot of incentives,
either helping to buy the rate down as an incentive
or adding you know, more features and additions to the
home without any cost. Building in So that's that's good
news that Lennard's bringing their prices down. Their stock has
been hit. The industry, the housing industry overall, has has
(15:59):
been When we're looking at the different stocks and indices
and et apps at measure housing and companies such as
Leonar or KB Home or what have you, they've all
started coming down primarily because of interest rates have been
high for such a long period of time, but specific
areas like food, shelter, housing costs, groceries, medicine, look at it, gas, airfare,
(16:20):
car rentals, eggs.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Hotels, they spiked like toilet paper did pandemic.
Speaker 3 (16:26):
Yeah, but eggs had that bird flu thing, so that's
kind of an outlier.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
But eggs and milk and buttery and all those things.
Speaker 3 (16:33):
But airfare gap, And look, I just came back from
a vacation.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Yeah, airports were tanner, You're more tan than normal.
Speaker 3 (16:42):
The airlines were packed, the airports were busy, hotels were
were busy. So people are plugging along. Economy is staying
pretty resilient. I did sit through a timeshare thing and
that was a very interesting, right, I mean, yeah, ridiculous.
Yeah I didn't buy, there's no way, but I sat
(17:04):
there and just threw math at them and they didn't
like me at all, and my wife said, I'm never
doing that with you again. It was totally embarrassing. I'm like,
what do you want me to do. I'm just stating facts.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
Yeah exactly, let me get this straight. Yeah right, you're yeah.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
So, but all of that, all of that came down,
which is good, and that all helps, like John was
saying earlier, helps our pocketbook, helps us to free up
a little bit more cash flow. And the big thing
is hopefully they figure this out and both sides can
agree on this healthcare front hosts of healthcare because that's huge.
(17:38):
And the number one thing that I've I've had already
a couple of clients that I've talked to, one of
them recently laid off and sixty years old, was planning
on retiring at sixty two and now is debating did
he go back to corporate America and get a full
time job or can you go back and do some
sort of part time job that he can enjoy and
(18:00):
be basically Sami retired. And the number one thing that
came up, well, I have health care. How much is
that going to cost for my family? Right? And they
still have a minor living at home, and you know
that's that's a big bill to pay, and so you know,
how do I bridge that gap for five years? Is
basically the question exactly right, And that's and that's what
(18:20):
we do. And this is this is this is what
we do. You know that particular client has a plan
with us, and so we go into their live plan
and now things have changed because an event changed in
their life. And we go in and it's fluid and
and create another scenario and say, let's let's say you
retire outright right, Let's say you get a part time job.
(18:42):
Let's say you have let's say you go back to work.
What are the outcomes? And the reality of it is
is they can actually retire now if they wanted to,
based off of their lifestyle and kind of the expenses
that they have and the retirement spend that they that
they're looking to have. And if he has a part
time job, they'll still be fine even with the addition
(19:03):
of healthcare costs and the cobra that they would have
to float for so many months, so on and so forth.
But that's why it's important to have a plan, right
because these things happen and it's out of the blue.
You don't know right, this was totally an expected event
for this client, but we were able to instead of
scrambling around like, oh no, what am I going to do?
How do I You know, it was a stressful event
(19:24):
for them and their household, but their call to me
was no, I'm looking at your plan right now, and
literally in five minutes, I rework some numbers, created a
different scenario and say, you guys are going to be
just fine.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
You know, I'm realizing that how much easier it is
to do our radio show.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
This is much easier back and forth.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
Well, and it just tells you. I mean, this sounds silly,
but two heads are better than one, quite frankly, and
it really is true, especially when it comes to you know,
what we're talking about today, and again you're doing a
great recap of of really the point and the the
the goal for my call, uh or not call, but
(20:07):
show last week was how important it is that your
plan is a living, breathing, you know, regularly revisited document,
and and that the implementation and you know, the effort
to help you achieve your needs, wants and wishes are
are a focus of your relationship with your with your
(20:30):
advisory team and your advisory firm, and so often, uh people,
you know, they do a plan as a box to
check right, right, I got a financial you know, you're
supposed to have a financial plan. I've got one check.
You're supposed to have you know, a trust, I've got
one check, you know, whatever the case may be. And
then it's never.
Speaker 3 (20:50):
Looked like put in a box collecting dust. And I
would say.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
That's probably the number one area where we're different is
we don't look at a financial plan and your portfolio
and your and your your trust in a state and
legacy as a box to check that I did the consultation,
I did that, the plan, you know, I did the trust,
(21:16):
I did this that another Nor.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
Do we nor do we look at it as an
addition to or something extra that we have to do.
It's just it's just part of a comprehensively right, comprehensive
approach with managing your assets but also having a plan
so everything is working congruently.
Speaker 2 (21:34):
So you know, if you have done a plan and
you've gone check, you know you've done it yourself or
an advisory firm did it for you. A number of
years ago. It is absolutely time and there isn't a
better time than the end of the year or the
beginning of the year to take a look at what
you've planned for. Are you on track? Look at your portfolio?
(21:59):
Did it do you know well the last three years,
especially this year? Is it set up or are you
just gambling on that? Hey, what was great this year?
I e. Like Nvidio, the mag seven or most of
what drove the returns this year? Are you just going
to be in those same things next year hoping for
(22:20):
the same result. It's crucial to set yourself up for
what is happening. And we follow the market, we follow
the news, we follow information, we follow research, we follow guidance,
and we tie it all back into what we helped
you create to accomplish your goals and objectives. So give
(22:42):
us a call at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred to arrange your new obligation consultation. And
did I mention we're certified portfolio managers? You did in
the first episode? I did, okaying, but we're more than that.
We have combined fifty years of experience. Oh that's true.
I have my master's in economics and finance and.
Speaker 3 (23:05):
A charter, retirement planning counselor designation yep. And what else?
How much do you bench?
Speaker 2 (23:15):
Not as much as I used to now now doing
dumbbells of you know, twenty and thirty five pounds is
what I've worked out with.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
I was good, but I've been like my back's out
out of commission, so I haven't done anything for a month.
I don't even know what I can do.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Yeah, So I literally it's funny to bring that up
because I just picked up the dumbbells for a first
time in a long time since having my You and
the dumbells had a reunion.
Speaker 3 (23:41):
It's like your high school It's like your thirtieth high
school reunion.
Speaker 2 (23:44):
And so so after I just did it. So I
just did some military with them, and I did some curls,
and I did some you know rows, yeah for my back.
So uh, you know, I was basically working on shoulders
and back and it's a little bit yeah, and uh,
into the shower to wash my hair, I had to
(24:06):
literally like throw.
Speaker 4 (24:09):
I to throw my arm up on my head to
be able to wash my head because I mean, I
just don't have to the muscle endurance.
Speaker 2 (24:20):
You know so anyway, all right, you know, another event.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
But that is that is important. You know, we talk
about finances all the time and and finding ways to
put your plan together and and your portfolio, managing your
portfolio to have longevity. Right, how do you You've worked
so hard to save all this money and now you
want to go out there and achieve your financial goals,
(24:45):
whether it's retirement or anything else for yourself or your family,
and you want to make your money last. Right, That's
the key number one key thing is that because you
can't replace it, you're not going back out there and
starting a new business or going back out there in
corporate America and getting a job to replace what you
might have lost because you took too much risk. Right.
And that's the same with your health, because the bottom
(25:07):
line is what we've learned. What I've learned, especially this
year unfortunately with just family, you know, events that have
taken place, unfortunate events have taken place, is that without
your health, it doesn't matter. How much money you have,
doesn't matter, and all this other stuff, it's just throw
it out the window, right, because then all these goals
(25:27):
that you had and I've heard before, you have a buddy,
my couple buddies that are firefighters, and one of them
was looking at it and saying, I'm not gonna I'm
not gonna do this for her because he's seeing a couple,
you know, of his colleagues retire and then literally two
three years later for things that they've been exposed exposed with,
(25:47):
they get cancer and then they can't even enjoy themselves
and they're just fighting for their lives in retirement. So
it's it's having a good balance, right, and it's it's
that you know where you started this company, health and
Wealth Advisory, right, not that we're doctors or not that
we're nurses or anything, but it's a key component to
really pay attention to and overall balance and then also
(26:10):
makes sense of having balance in your financial picture too.
When you're just focusing on the financial picture, right, you
can't just go after the gus. Don't see, I'm just
gonna do Max seven and try and get these big
gains with my money, and then you're you know, emitting
everything else out there, and then you have one big
down year and now you're stressed out because you took
too much risk, right, And so it's the same thing
(26:32):
risk is on all kinds of different sides. It's are
you risking your health and therefore now you're risking your
longevity of your health for yourself and your family and
the money doesn't matter. Are you also taking too much
risk with your assets or taking risk that you don't
have a plan right that you just have your portfolio
doing whatever it's doing, but it's not tied to a
(26:53):
plan to say is it on track? Are you taking
too much risk? Are you taking too little risk?
Speaker 2 (26:58):
Right?
Speaker 3 (26:58):
And you're trying to create balance?
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Yeah, I would again say that our uniqueness is being
able to potentially because it doesn't happen all the time,
but in most cases we find that people have embedded
expenses in their funds and things that we're able to
reduce the cost of your investments and then really focus on, Okay,
(27:26):
how are we going to get you the net return
that you need to accomplish what you put in the
plan that we worked on together to get you to
the needs that you have, potentially the wants and wishes
that you have without you know, people think that oh,
(27:47):
to get a six seven eight percent return, if that's
what you need to accomplish all of your goals and
objectives that the only way you can get that is
in some sort of you know, risky stock investment, and
that's just not the case. And then there's not right no,
not right now. And there's different levels of risk when
(28:09):
it comes to buying a particular stock or a particular fund.
They're not all created equally. When we look at the
different measurements of risk that the investment has demonstrated, you know,
over a period of time, and there is great income investments,
(28:31):
divid in pain interest pain investments that haven't been this
this high quite frankly, at least in my career that
I know of. I mean I got in in the
right at the beginning of the nineties where we just
come off came off of you know, inflation numbers that
(28:53):
you know, a recession in the early nineties, right, that
were that were unbelievable because of of what happened with
the inflation and interest rates in the eighties. People forget that, Uh,
we were at a surp plus, right, we were definitely
those during during the Clinton area, we were we had
(29:14):
a budget surf plus with the war going on, and
and that's really helped to shore up the dollar destruction
that caused inflation. But but where I was going, you
know overall, is that the goal of of your your
relationship with your advisor should be that they understand first
(29:36):
of all, you know, the basic things that you're trying
to do with your with your money and your legacy,
and then figuring out how on an ongoing basis to
put you in a portfolio that gets you there with
as you said, without taking the risk that that you
just don't need or or why would you do it,
(29:58):
because you're not going to go back to work at
seventy years old, sixty five.
Speaker 3 (30:03):
Years like you going back to deciding that you want
to do motocross and dirt biking.
Speaker 2 (30:08):
Like you did when you were younger. Yeah, exactly, and
now you know, now I'm paying the price. But nevertheless,
you know, it's so important to align your risk with
your station, your current station in life. If you're working
and generating you know, a great income and take home pay,
(30:31):
and you're paying down your debts and you're accumulating wealth,
you know you have time when you're in your thirties,
forties and fifties to literally, you know, overcome a bad
market like twenty twenty two or the beginning of twenty
five well, or the wild swings from the pandemic in
(30:51):
twenty twenty, or the market down to turn at twenty eighteen.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
From twenty twenty till now, there's been a lot of
wild swings.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
I mean insane, and so many times people and and
and even advisors sadly that are woefully under skilled, woefully
or they just don't experience, or they just don't put
the time in. I mean, look, I was on vacation.
They buy high and sell low.
Speaker 3 (31:15):
I was on vacation. And what did I text you?
What was I looking at?
Speaker 2 (31:19):
Yeah? You were looking at you know, market information and investment.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
No more so than that, I was tracking our core correct, Yeah,
and comparing it to the S and P five hundred
and how it's done in the last month, the last
three months, the last year to date and the last year, right,
and the amount of work that we put into that
to try and be different and not just be a
(31:44):
cookie cutter and throw you in, like you said, like
a mutual fond, right, And that makes the difference, right,
And if it's not making the difference, we're diving in
and saying what do we need to do better or
how do we need to shift or change things. But
on a one month, three months, one month, not the
three month, but the year to day and also the
one year trailing, our core equity portfolio has outpaced the
(32:07):
sm P five hundred, Not that we've built that to
do that, because primarily the focus is income first, growth second,
where the S and P five hundred is just pure
growth essentially, and that's what's paying an average about three
point two to three point three percent in dividend yield
overall average of the overall portfolio, and it's outpaced the
(32:28):
S and P five hundred.
Speaker 2 (32:29):
And the biggest large margin though one a game, but the.
Speaker 3 (32:32):
Bigger thing is this last month where we've had some
volatility and the markets haven't done so well, the S
and P five hundred was down I think like a
quarter percent, and our core portfolio in that same period
of time was up actually a little over one percent.
Speaker 2 (32:46):
Yeah, So you know, for us, the job the point
is never stops. You know, when you when you work
with you know, a big bank or a big you
know brokerage firm like Morgan or Merrill or one of those.
When Friday at you know, one o'clock comes, you're the
(33:07):
people responsible for your money and account. They go home
and they don't think about you and and and what's
going on again till maybe Monday morning if you're lucky.
Whereas I do more uh studying of what's going on
and reading and researching about what is going on when
(33:29):
I have downtime, when the market's not open, and we're
always you know, available for our clients, you know, seven
days a week. I mean it's there's no oh, hey,
you know, I'm Monday through Friday. And if you need something,
you know, you can't you can't get us to do
something for you or talk about something. It's whenever our
(33:51):
clients need us, we're available for them. And I think
that's another very important thing in your advisory firm, is
that at the access and the availability and the response
time to whatever it is you need is right away.
So give us a call at nine one nine six
(34:12):
seven thirty five hundred to arrange your new obligation consultation.
And what we're going to talk about in this last
few minutes. Here is our forecast and forecasts that that
we're looking into for twenty twenty six.
Speaker 3 (34:28):
And investment investment major investment banks and their forecast six and.
Speaker 2 (34:32):
Then still talk a little bit about some of the
things that happened and the data that we we really
like to look at because of its effects on your
investments and your portfolios in twenty twenty five. But I
did want to mention one thing before you finished going
through your bullet points and looking at your notes here.
(34:53):
I don't know if you saw the address by the
president audation, Well, there was one really cool thing that
I'm just kind of dumbfounded. And maybe it's been done
in the past, maybe it was done in World War Two,
or the Vietnam War, the Korean War, or the Golf War,
things you know previously. But one of the things that
(35:16):
the President rolled out that I think is just so
important that we forget about our you know, our our
military heroes, is a warrior dividend of seventeen hundred and
seven million dollars for a million, four hundred thousand plus
military members. And could you imagine, first of all, they
(35:40):
get paid nothing, and and he just I just thought
it was just awesome. I mean, I think, of course,
I know, I think.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
It's great playing Devil's advocate and you're probably not gonna
like this is it just adds to the spending. Yeah,
but but I think I think they should revap because
you just said that Keith under they're underpaid. I think
they should revamp and really take a look at that.
Speaker 2 (36:06):
Yeah, I think all of our emergency workers are military workers.
They're way underpaid, and so, you know, especially nurses and
and and and the like. I just liked that.
Speaker 3 (36:20):
Nurses get paid at least, at least in California. I
don't know about the rest of the Yeah, but nurses
and doctors definitely get paid.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
As they should paid.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Yeah, paid well public employees such as you know, cops, right,
the police, law enforcement, military.
Speaker 2 (36:36):
So but it was still very very cool that well,
good timing with the holidays coming up, right, that that
finally beyond just nurses, you know, doctors, teachers, fire police.
That that you know, was so important and crucial that
we support and and and love helping as clients. By
(36:56):
the way, that also military current military personnel are going
to get a nice you know, at least are being
thought about to get some of this money that goes
out again, it goes out in subsidy to every important
industry or career, but often the military Christmas bonus yep, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3 (37:22):
Private private sector Christmas bond.
Speaker 2 (37:24):
I got us off on a tangent, but I thought
that was, you know, amazing to that note.
Speaker 3 (37:28):
What that does is it'll provide maybe hopefully a little
bit more discretionary income and therefore discretionary spending, right, which
will help out the economy, you know, towards the end
of this year, at least during the Christmas holiday. The
good news well this inflation day that's come out that
we didn't get to I don't. I don't believe we did.
(37:49):
Is wages have been increasing, and they've been increasing. The
hourly earnings have increased by three and a half percent
year over year. Why is that important Because that's greater
the then where inflation has been growing year, and that's
what we want. We want wages to increase more so
than inflation. Right, So you have real wages, right that
is actually keeping up and superseding inflation. You're actually able
(38:11):
to go out there and have a meaningful income to
be able to have an increase, right, you can buy more,
you can afford more, you can get that house, so
on and so forth. So that's that's very important. That's
important for the economy, and that's what we like to
see right, and not so much the handouts, yep.
Speaker 2 (38:30):
But in fact, you know, we go over this a
lot and spend some time on this particular you know,
threat to an economy and to going into a recession
is unemployment and wages. And so the fact is that
based on where we're at now, unemployment less than the
(38:51):
fives percent, which there's as far as I know, we
haven't gone into a recession when unemployment's been below five
and when you see wages that are increasing at a
faster clip than inflation, you can't have a recession. I mean,
I'm sure there's something, yeah, right, I'm sure there's something that,
(39:14):
you know, our politicians could blow up to make this
that not be the case. Certainly, Historically, when you have
wages outpacing inflation, inflation is basically in check. You have
unemployment still at full employment, I mean, you typically have
(39:36):
a good economy. So our outlook, you know, overall for
twenty twenty six, and I said it last weekend, is
we believe twenty twenty six is going to be a
good one. However, and then you can go into the
forecasts of you know, the different indices and what they
may go up to and what percent that is, but
there's still the government shut down, a budgetary issues going on,
(40:01):
you know, tariff policies where you know, in any given moment,
there could be a story about China or Canada sure
or you know, or I think China major trading partner,
trading partners, I'm not too concerned. The only ones really
that I'm more concerned on this China.
Speaker 3 (40:17):
Yeah, that one has the biggest impact. If you go
back and look at all the you know, uh lated
and trade related talks, China has had the biggest one
when it comes to China and it hits ahead tween
US in China. That usually has a biggest impact on
a stock market. Everything else not not as much.
Speaker 2 (40:34):
And I also think that that the market and as
far as where you make money in stocks is going
to broaden. I think it will be less about the
mag seven and twenty twenty six, It'll be it'll be
more about you know. What I like to say is
an indirect way to make money on the Fourth Industrial
(40:54):
Revolution is that you've got to be looking at certain
types of energy plays that will be powering data centers.
You got to look at you know, certain software plays,
certain manufacturing well, it.
Speaker 3 (41:05):
Could be something not even related to that. I mean,
we had Warner Brothers, uh just put into our one
of our growth portfolios not that long ago. I think
it was one month ago, and it's up double digits.
Warner Brothers. Yeah, well, have you ever thought of Warner Brothers? No? No,
But that's the thing. I mean, there's so many companies
(41:25):
that are great companies that pay a divits Warner Brothers,
as Warner Brothers came out and said, somebody, AI.
Speaker 2 (41:33):
There are important sectors and industries, and I think we're
going to see a broadening out of more companies that
are going to have good you know, from low high
single digit to low double digit you know, growth rates,
and then if you couple that with you know, the
dividends that they pay. For example, you know Owen's Corning.
(41:55):
I think you know, it was just a forgotten company
and and that could have a very year. It's way
off of its highs. And it's those kind of companies
like that that I think could could have a really
good year. But let's let's just roll out you know
the rest of your bullet points and.
Speaker 3 (42:14):
Yeah, real quick because we're out of time here. But
the twenty twenty six major forecast from all the major
investment banks, from Bank of America to Georgia Bank JP
Morgan Morgan Stanley varies pretty widely anywhere from well they
think S and P five hundred is going to finish
anywhere from seventy one hundred to eight thousand. So that's
(42:35):
about three percent from where we're at right now to
sixteen percent next year. But as we all know, they
come out at least on a quarterly basis or even
more frequently and revise them and so we'll keep track
of that. But other than that, it's been great talking
with you. I hope everybody has a great weekend and
a merry Christmas.
Speaker 2 (42:54):
Yeah, yep. You've been listening to John Scammery to Seppe
Piscani the wise money guys have a wonderful set to
day file
Speaker 4 (43:05):
Mmahm
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show.
I'm your co host again, John Scambray, and I'm here
with my partner Giuseppe Visconti, and we are certified portfolio
managers that specialize in helping people who are retired are
about to retire manage their money. As always, if you
like our show and have any questions or want to
arrange a no obligation consultation, which we highly suggest you do,
(00:37):
especially before the year's over or at least early on
in the new year, give us a call at nine
to one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. So
last week, Jusseppe, I don't know if you tuned into
my wonderful show by myself.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
I saw a couple shorts on YouTube. Okay, so since
we had to mention that if you want to see us,
you know, put a face to the voice, you can
search us on YouTube and our recorded live radio show
also hits YouTube and you can just search us either
John Scambray just subt Visconti or the Wise Money guys
(01:14):
and will pop up and it'll come up with a
whole episode. And then also some some shorts, some snippets,
usually a couple YouTube shorts. So yeah, I did see
a couple of them, one of kind of your forecasts
of twenty twenty six, and then another one I think
on tariffs.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
Yes, so I think that's what we need to talk
about this morning. So just to give you a brief
overview of our conversation and lots of bullet points I
see that you have, so you're you're rare and and
ready to go. But last week I talked a little
bit about things that happened in twenty twenty five, like
the big beautiful Bill, tariffs of course, the government shut down,
(01:59):
things of that name nature, the budget not being passed,
and a continuing resolution just being the solution that keeps
kicking the can down the road. I went over briefly
some of the tax deductions or tax deduction extensions that
were found that are going to kick off in twenty
(02:21):
twenty six that haven't been this year in twenty for
this year's taxes, so you know, economically what I thought,
some bigger tax refunds coming April. That's what they're projecting.
And so we'll continue the conversation now focusing now that
you're back on twenty twenty six and some of the
(02:41):
themes of twenty twenty six, which I already mentioned. And
guess what, before it even hit the news, I said,
look for some of the same from twenty twenty five
being some of the the headwinds in twenty twenty six,
which is government shut down budget.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
January thirtieth year.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
And sure enough, literally like the next day after the show,
uh they started saying, oh, well, gosh, now they're talking
about a government shut down again already. And and and
that's why we see some of the volatility that we're seeing,
is because it just puts a little more uncertainty, uh
in in in the market that certainly we don't need
(03:23):
right now with so many other things kind of just
on the the precipice of either going off a cliff
or being absolutely one of the best years. You know,
And I think over a long time.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
I think overall this is this is gonna be. This
isn't as good as last year or the year before.
As far as returns but definitely a good year double
digit return, and I think we'll finish as a double
digit return. We'll probably have a little bit of a
Santa and Sanna will come visit us here late later
part of the month. But yeah, it's not without any
(04:00):
obstacles here in the near future, especially the government shutdown,
because the biggest thing with that is having to figure
out the healthcare situation.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Yeah. Well, some things that just happened, which is really
really big news is the House passed the healthcare bill
that they've been trying to pass for many, many months now,
and it was without the ACA the Affordable Care Act subsidies. Now, please,
(04:35):
you know know what that really means. Subsidies weren't subsidies
to American insurance payers. They were subsidies to American insurance companies.
So the only thing that the Affordable Care Act subsidies
did was make insurance companies profitability go through the roof
(05:02):
and people's premiums, families premiums go through the roof, which
is the exact opposite. If you're gonna pass anything or
put something out there, it should be for the benefit
of individuals and families and small business, not gigantic insurance companies,
(05:23):
and over and over again we talk about the affordability
of health care. That's that's a total you know, wash
job or con job, because healthcare is not the conversation.
Everybody has health care. Everybody can go to a hospital
and get health care, whether you're a citizen, whether exactly
(05:47):
what all this has been about was big bribes to
insurance companies who then turned around and made huge kickbacks
to the coffers of the Democratic you know party and
their foundations and their you know, their pet projects, and
(06:08):
so the two big things that are in this this
healthcare bill, which is an actual healthcare bill, was reducing
prescription drug prices through the Favored nation parts of the
New health Care Bill, and then getting rid of the
Obama uh, the the Affordable Care Act subsidy, which again
(06:33):
didn't go into the pockets of families or businesses.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
Didn't make it more affordable.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
It did not make it more affordable. In fact, it
may be the right title of it. I mean, my
premium just went for just me is going from seven
hundred and sixty five dollars a month to twelve hundred
and eight dollars a month, and my health insurance coverages
got worse. My deductible is big, my out of pocket
(07:01):
overall out of pocket is bigger, and my office visits,
everything is more. And the premium went up. You know
what is that?
Speaker 3 (07:11):
Is your care better though?
Speaker 2 (07:12):
No? No, went up sixty percent.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
Yeah, so well, and that's a huge That is a
huge pain point for individuals, especially who are looking to
retire early before they're eligible for age of medicare. Is
figuring out, you know, can I retire early? Can I
retire at sixty or sixty two or whatever and bridge
(07:38):
the gap for the three or five years until I'm
eligible for medicare and pay the premium because it's huge,
and it's it's huge for those who are looking to
retire earlier before they're eligible for medicare. It's also huge
for people who are wanting to be you know, have
the entrepreneurial spirit and go out there and say, hey,
I want to run my own business or be a
part of the business or so on and so forth,
(07:59):
because that's it's expensive. I have a family friend is
basically my cousin and.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
He's paying everybody's a cousin when you're Italian. Yeah, by
the waybody forget about it, forget about it.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
But he's paying literally over three thousand dollars a month
family for a family of fours, got two little kids,
his wife was pregnant at the time, so he got,
you know, the higher end coverage. But that's not without
a deductible.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
He still has ten thousand dollars annual.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
Still, no, it's lower than that because you got a
higher coverage. Good, but he's paying I think like thirty
three or thirty four hundred dollars a month.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
That's net.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
So you get that out, that's almost forty thousand dollars
a year. That's out of pocket. You have to gross
at least sixty five thousand dollars a year just to
just to net them out to cover your insurance.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
You know, it's so sad. Is not a single left
side of the aisle, and they're far left voted to
reduce your healthcare premiums. All of them want sure that
the your health is going to be the premium.
Speaker 3 (09:01):
Is just going to be the pickle. In January, this
absolutely going.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
To be best well. And still keep in mind that
this just made it through the House, it has not
made it through the Senate yet, and obviously if it
hasn't made it through the Senate, and then you know
it's not to the President's desk to sign. But it's
a huge step forward, and it's extremely important to rein
(09:25):
back in the cost of health insurance. Stop being lied
to that this has anything to do with health care,
the Affordable Care Act, and this this this new healthcare
bill is a health insurance and reducing the cost of
prescription drugs and health insurance. And that is what is
(09:50):
something that's gigantic for twenty twenty six because if that
is the case again, now, one of the things that
I was mentioning for twenty twenty is that if consumers
or the public has more money in their pocket because
they pay less taxes, and now if they pay less
(10:11):
insurance health insurance, and if they pay less for groceries
and gash, gas and energy, all that sets us up
for is another great market because that additional tree.
Speaker 3 (10:26):
Up some discretionary income.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
Gets spent on goods and services, gets spent on investments,
savings that will help, you know, increase return on investment
because if if more revenue is been being generated on
goods and services because people have more money to spend, well,
then guess what goes up, stock prices go up.
Speaker 3 (10:49):
Well, the whole economy, right everything. Consumer spending is about
seventy percent of the economy, so huge, huge, So we
can we can and we can dive more into the
inflation data that just recently came out this week and
some of the components that have really come down that
has helped the pocket book and of what you're saying
(11:12):
actually unfold next year, and we'll continue.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
On and keep in mind how important it is. One
of the major things that we talked about last weekend
was having a plan or updating your plan or reviewing
your portfolio to make sure you're positioned for a good
year in the right sort of investments that are what
(11:35):
I think will be the sweet spot next year versus
what was the sweet spot this year. So give us
a call at nine one six nine six seven thirty
five hundred and let's dive into data data. We are
a show from Star Trek Data. By the way, So
in order to keep talking about twenty twenty six, we've
got to keep talking about twenty twenty five because will
(12:00):
still be a big theme in twenty twenty six, is
it under control? Employment will be a big thing in
twenty twenty six. You know, we've already mentioned that the budget,
a potential government shut down, you know, tax policy, tariff policy,
all these things will be a major impact to the
(12:20):
returns that you make on your money, to the income
you can generate from your money, so on and so forth.
So let's let's kind of dive in a little bit
to some of this end of the user data that's
come out. And I see, did you mention pages note.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
Did you mention unemployment? Last week?
Speaker 2 (12:37):
I ticked up? You know, I don't recall it.
Speaker 3 (12:40):
Yeah, so unemployment ticked up to four point six with
the job numbers. The job numbers actually were a little
bit better than anticipated. But I think it's the all
the federal employees that were flooding the market, right, I
think that padded the unemployment in the past few years. Right,
they've been coming off the books. So think about that.
(13:02):
That's a net savings to taxpayers. Oh right, So.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
If there's if there's unemployment that you want, it's bureaucracy
unemployment increasing that you want run it.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
More efficiently instead of just all the spending exactly. But
the most recent inflation data, the CPI that came out again,
you know, it's uh impacted a little bit because we
did we had the government shutdown. But the November numbers
came down to two point seven percent, so down from
three percent, lower than anticipated, which is great. Core CPI,
(13:38):
which is a consumer price index, the main inflation. Core
takes out food and energy, which is more volatile. FED
you like to look at these numbers more so than
just the headline CPI or the headline inflation, which involves
everything out there. Two point six percent also down three percent,
so when you're looking at the trend, it's been coming.
(14:00):
These most recent numbers are softer than anticipated, which is
great news because we're going in the right direction. It's
not yet to the two percent like the FED wants,
but we're going in the right direction. There are some
pundits out there saying like, oh, they're skeptical about the
numbers because the government shut down. It's a little noisy,
we don't have all the data, so on and so forth.
(14:20):
But the data that we do have, and who knows,
bls I want to be surprised they revise it once again. Yeah,
but these are in the right direction, the direction that
we want them to be and where they're going. The
key components that is contributing to John was talking about
earlier of what's really helping out the consumer here. Shelter
(14:42):
and housing costs have come down.
Speaker 2 (14:44):
Food, well, Lenar is lowering their production. Home prices they're stucks.
They're twenty to seven percent. And Lennar is one of
the biggest builders, if not the biggest builder in the country.
And I mean again, that's a major People have been waiting, Oh,
I'm waiting for interest rates to go down. I'm waiting
(15:06):
for home prices to go down. Well, guess what home
prices are down. They're even down. Well, maybe not in
the very specialty you know, real estate bubble areas like
a beachfront home or barrier you know, or something like that,
but overall where most Americans can afford to live, all
home prices are down, and and rates as far as
(15:29):
a thirty year mortgage dipped into the fives so hi fi,
which is which is fantastic.
Speaker 3 (15:35):
Yeah, And all of these new home builders I've seen,
you know, they're coming out with a lot of incentives,
either helping to buy the rate down as an incentive
or adding you know, more features and additions to the
home without any cost. Building in So that's that's good
news that Lennard's bringing their prices down. Their stock has
been hit. The industry, the housing industry overall, has has
(15:59):
been When we're looking at the different stocks and indices
and et apps at measure housing and companies such as
Leonar or KB Home or what have you, they've all
started coming down primarily because of interest rates have been
high for such a long period of time, but specific
areas like food, shelter, housing costs, groceries, medicine, look at it, gas, airfare,
(16:20):
car rentals, eggs.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Hotels, they spiked like toilet paper did pandemic.
Speaker 3 (16:26):
Yeah, but eggs had that bird flu thing, so that's
kind of an outlier.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
But eggs and milk and buttery and all those things.
Speaker 3 (16:33):
But airfare gap, And look, I just came back from
a vacation.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Yeah, airports were tanner, You're more tan than normal.
Speaker 3 (16:42):
The airlines were packed, the airports were busy, hotels were
were busy. So people are plugging along. Economy is staying
pretty resilient. I did sit through a timeshare thing and
that was a very interesting, right, I mean, yeah, ridiculous.
Yeah I didn't buy, there's no way, but I sat
(17:04):
there and just threw math at them and they didn't
like me at all, and my wife said, I'm never
doing that with you again. It was totally embarrassing. I'm like,
what do you want me to do. I'm just stating facts.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
Yeah exactly, let me get this straight. Yeah right, you're yeah.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
So, but all of that, all of that came down,
which is good, and that all helps, like John was
saying earlier, helps our pocketbook, helps us to free up
a little bit more cash flow. And the big thing
is hopefully they figure this out and both sides can
agree on this healthcare front hosts of healthcare because that's huge.
(17:38):
And the number one thing that I've I've had already
a couple of clients that I've talked to, one of
them recently laid off and sixty years old, was planning
on retiring at sixty two and now is debating did
he go back to corporate America and get a full
time job or can you go back and do some
sort of part time job that he can enjoy and
(18:00):
be basically Sami retired. And the number one thing that
came up, well, I have health care. How much is
that going to cost for my family? Right? And they
still have a minor living at home, and you know
that's that's a big bill to pay, and so you know,
how do I bridge that gap for five years? Is
basically the question exactly right, And that's and that's what
(18:20):
we do. And this is this is this is what
we do. You know that particular client has a plan
with us, and so we go into their live plan
and now things have changed because an event changed in
their life. And we go in and it's fluid and
and create another scenario and say, let's let's say you
retire outright right, Let's say you get a part time job.
(18:42):
Let's say you have let's say you go back to work.
What are the outcomes? And the reality of it is
is they can actually retire now if they wanted to,
based off of their lifestyle and kind of the expenses
that they have and the retirement spend that they that
they're looking to have. And if he has a part
time job, they'll still be fine even with the addition
(19:03):
of healthcare costs and the cobra that they would have
to float for so many months, so on and so forth.
But that's why it's important to have a plan, right
because these things happen and it's out of the blue.
You don't know right, this was totally an expected event
for this client, but we were able to instead of
scrambling around like, oh no, what am I going to do?
How do I You know, it was a stressful event
(19:24):
for them and their household, but their call to me
was no, I'm looking at your plan right now, and
literally in five minutes, I rework some numbers, created a
different scenario and say, you guys are going to be
just fine.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
You know, I'm realizing that how much easier it is
to do our radio show.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
This is much easier back and forth.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
Well, and it just tells you. I mean, this sounds silly,
but two heads are better than one, quite frankly, and
it really is true, especially when it comes to you know,
what we're talking about today, and again you're doing a
great recap of of really the point and the the
the goal for my call, uh or not call, but
(20:07):
show last week was how important it is that your
plan is a living, breathing, you know, regularly revisited document,
and and that the implementation and you know, the effort
to help you achieve your needs, wants and wishes are
are a focus of your relationship with your with your
(20:30):
advisory team and your advisory firm, and so often, uh people,
you know, they do a plan as a box to
check right, right, I got a financial you know, you're
supposed to have a financial plan. I've got one check.
You're supposed to have you know, a trust, I've got
one check, you know, whatever the case may be. And
then it's never.
Speaker 3 (20:50):
Looked like put in a box collecting dust. And I
would say.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
That's probably the number one area where we're different is
we don't look at a financial plan and your portfolio
and your and your your trust in a state and
legacy as a box to check that I did the consultation,
I did that, the plan, you know, I did the trust,
(21:16):
I did this that another Nor.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
Do we nor do we look at it as an
addition to or something extra that we have to do.
It's just it's just part of a comprehensively right, comprehensive
approach with managing your assets but also having a plan
so everything is working congruently.
Speaker 2 (21:34):
So you know, if you have done a plan and
you've gone check, you know you've done it yourself or
an advisory firm did it for you. A number of
years ago. It is absolutely time and there isn't a
better time than the end of the year or the
beginning of the year to take a look at what
you've planned for. Are you on track? Look at your portfolio?
(21:59):
Did it do you know well the last three years,
especially this year? Is it set up or are you
just gambling on that? Hey, what was great this year?
I e. Like Nvidio, the mag seven or most of
what drove the returns this year? Are you just going
to be in those same things next year hoping for
(22:20):
the same result. It's crucial to set yourself up for
what is happening. And we follow the market, we follow
the news, we follow information, we follow research, we follow guidance,
and we tie it all back into what we helped
you create to accomplish your goals and objectives. So give
(22:42):
us a call at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred to arrange your new obligation consultation. And
did I mention we're certified portfolio managers? You did in
the first episode? I did, okaying, but we're more than that.
We have combined fifty years of experience. Oh that's true.
I have my master's in economics and finance and.
Speaker 3 (23:05):
A charter, retirement planning counselor designation yep. And what else?
How much do you bench?
Speaker 2 (23:15):
Not as much as I used to now now doing
dumbbells of you know, twenty and thirty five pounds is
what I've worked out with.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
I was good, but I've been like my back's out
out of commission, so I haven't done anything for a month.
I don't even know what I can do.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Yeah, So I literally it's funny to bring that up
because I just picked up the dumbbells for a first
time in a long time since having my You and
the dumbells had a reunion.
Speaker 3 (23:41):
It's like your high school It's like your thirtieth high
school reunion.
Speaker 2 (23:44):
And so so after I just did it. So I
just did some military with them, and I did some curls,
and I did some you know rows, yeah for my back.
So uh, you know, I was basically working on shoulders
and back and it's a little bit yeah, and uh,
into the shower to wash my hair, I had to
(24:06):
literally like throw.
Speaker 4 (24:09):
I to throw my arm up on my head to
be able to wash my head because I mean, I
just don't have to the muscle endurance.
Speaker 2 (24:20):
You know so anyway, all right, you know, another event.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
But that is that is important. You know, we talk
about finances all the time and and finding ways to
put your plan together and and your portfolio, managing your
portfolio to have longevity. Right, how do you You've worked
so hard to save all this money and now you
want to go out there and achieve your financial goals,
(24:45):
whether it's retirement or anything else for yourself or your family,
and you want to make your money last. Right, That's
the key number one key thing is that because you
can't replace it, you're not going back out there and
starting a new business or going back out there in
corporate America and getting a job to replace what you
might have lost because you took too much risk. Right.
And that's the same with your health, because the bottom
(25:07):
line is what we've learned. What I've learned, especially this
year unfortunately with just family, you know, events that have
taken place, unfortunate events have taken place, is that without
your health, it doesn't matter. How much money you have,
doesn't matter, and all this other stuff, it's just throw
it out the window, right, because then all these goals
(25:27):
that you had and I've heard before, you have a buddy,
my couple buddies that are firefighters, and one of them
was looking at it and saying, I'm not gonna I'm
not gonna do this for her because he's seeing a couple,
you know, of his colleagues retire and then literally two
three years later for things that they've been exposed exposed with,
(25:47):
they get cancer and then they can't even enjoy themselves
and they're just fighting for their lives in retirement. So
it's it's having a good balance, right, and it's it's
that you know where you started this company, health and
Wealth Advisory, right, not that we're doctors or not that
we're nurses or anything, but it's a key component to
really pay attention to and overall balance and then also
(26:10):
makes sense of having balance in your financial picture too.
When you're just focusing on the financial picture, right, you
can't just go after the gus. Don't see, I'm just
gonna do Max seven and try and get these big
gains with my money, and then you're you know, emitting
everything else out there, and then you have one big
down year and now you're stressed out because you took
too much risk, right, And so it's the same thing
(26:32):
risk is on all kinds of different sides. It's are
you risking your health and therefore now you're risking your
longevity of your health for yourself and your family and
the money doesn't matter. Are you also taking too much
risk with your assets or taking risk that you don't
have a plan right that you just have your portfolio
doing whatever it's doing, but it's not tied to a
(26:53):
plan to say is it on track? Are you taking
too much risk? Are you taking too little risk?
Speaker 2 (26:58):
Right?
Speaker 3 (26:58):
And you're trying to create balance?
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Yeah, I would again say that our uniqueness is being
able to potentially because it doesn't happen all the time,
but in most cases we find that people have embedded
expenses in their funds and things that we're able to
reduce the cost of your investments and then really focus on, Okay,
(27:26):
how are we going to get you the net return
that you need to accomplish what you put in the
plan that we worked on together to get you to
the needs that you have, potentially the wants and wishes
that you have without you know, people think that oh,
(27:47):
to get a six seven eight percent return, if that's
what you need to accomplish all of your goals and
objectives that the only way you can get that is
in some sort of you know, risky stock investment, and
that's just not the case. And then there's not right no,
not right now. And there's different levels of risk when
(28:09):
it comes to buying a particular stock or a particular fund.
They're not all created equally. When we look at the
different measurements of risk that the investment has demonstrated, you know,
over a period of time, and there is great income investments,
(28:31):
divid in pain interest pain investments that haven't been this
this high quite frankly, at least in my career that
I know of. I mean I got in in the
right at the beginning of the nineties where we just
come off came off of you know, inflation numbers that
(28:53):
you know, a recession in the early nineties, right, that
were that were unbelievable because of of what happened with
the inflation and interest rates in the eighties. People forget that, Uh,
we were at a surp plus, right, we were definitely
those during during the Clinton area, we were we had
(29:14):
a budget surf plus with the war going on, and
and that's really helped to shore up the dollar destruction
that caused inflation. But but where I was going, you
know overall, is that the goal of of your your
relationship with your advisor should be that they understand first
(29:36):
of all, you know, the basic things that you're trying
to do with your with your money and your legacy,
and then figuring out how on an ongoing basis to
put you in a portfolio that gets you there with
as you said, without taking the risk that that you
just don't need or or why would you do it,
(29:58):
because you're not going to go back to work at
seventy years old, sixty five.
Speaker 3 (30:03):
Years like you going back to deciding that you want
to do motocross and dirt biking.
Speaker 2 (30:08):
Like you did when you were younger. Yeah, exactly, and
now you know, now I'm paying the price. But nevertheless,
you know, it's so important to align your risk with
your station, your current station in life. If you're working
and generating you know, a great income and take home pay,
(30:31):
and you're paying down your debts and you're accumulating wealth,
you know you have time when you're in your thirties,
forties and fifties to literally, you know, overcome a bad
market like twenty twenty two or the beginning of twenty
five well, or the wild swings from the pandemic in
(30:51):
twenty twenty, or the market down to turn at twenty eighteen.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
From twenty twenty till now, there's been a lot of
wild swings.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
I mean insane, and so many times people and and
and even advisors sadly that are woefully under skilled, woefully
or they just don't experience, or they just don't put
the time in. I mean, look, I was on vacation.
They buy high and sell low.
Speaker 3 (31:15):
I was on vacation. And what did I text you?
What was I looking at?
Speaker 2 (31:19):
Yeah? You were looking at you know, market information and investment.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
No more so than that, I was tracking our core correct, Yeah,
and comparing it to the S and P five hundred
and how it's done in the last month, the last
three months, the last year to date and the last year, right,
and the amount of work that we put into that
to try and be different and not just be a
(31:44):
cookie cutter and throw you in, like you said, like
a mutual fond, right, And that makes the difference, right,
And if it's not making the difference, we're diving in
and saying what do we need to do better or
how do we need to shift or change things. But
on a one month, three months, one month, not the
three month, but the year to day and also the
one year trailing, our core equity portfolio has outpaced the
(32:07):
sm P five hundred, Not that we've built that to
do that, because primarily the focus is income first, growth second,
where the S and P five hundred is just pure
growth essentially, and that's what's paying an average about three
point two to three point three percent in dividend yield
overall average of the overall portfolio, and it's outpaced the
(32:28):
S and P five hundred.
Speaker 2 (32:29):
And the biggest large margin though one a game, but the.
Speaker 3 (32:32):
Bigger thing is this last month where we've had some
volatility and the markets haven't done so well, the S
and P five hundred was down I think like a
quarter percent, and our core portfolio in that same period
of time was up actually a little over one percent.
Speaker 2 (32:46):
Yeah, So you know, for us, the job the point
is never stops. You know, when you when you work
with you know, a big bank or a big you
know brokerage firm like Morgan or Merrill or one of those.
When Friday at you know, one o'clock comes, you're the
(33:07):
people responsible for your money and account. They go home
and they don't think about you and and and what's
going on again till maybe Monday morning if you're lucky.
Whereas I do more uh studying of what's going on
and reading and researching about what is going on when
(33:29):
I have downtime, when the market's not open, and we're
always you know, available for our clients, you know, seven
days a week. I mean it's there's no oh, hey,
you know, I'm Monday through Friday. And if you need something,
you know, you can't you can't get us to do
something for you or talk about something. It's whenever our
(33:51):
clients need us, we're available for them. And I think
that's another very important thing in your advisory firm, is
that at the access and the availability and the response
time to whatever it is you need is right away.
So give us a call at nine one nine six
(34:12):
seven thirty five hundred to arrange your new obligation consultation.
And what we're going to talk about in this last
few minutes. Here is our forecast and forecasts that that
we're looking into for twenty twenty six.
Speaker 3 (34:28):
And investment investment major investment banks and their forecast six and.
Speaker 2 (34:32):
Then still talk a little bit about some of the
things that happened and the data that we we really
like to look at because of its effects on your
investments and your portfolios in twenty twenty five. But I
did want to mention one thing before you finished going
through your bullet points and looking at your notes here.
(34:53):
I don't know if you saw the address by the
president audation, Well, there was one really cool thing that
I'm just kind of dumbfounded. And maybe it's been done
in the past, maybe it was done in World War Two,
or the Vietnam War, the Korean War, or the Golf War,
things you know previously. But one of the things that
(35:16):
the President rolled out that I think is just so
important that we forget about our you know, our our
military heroes, is a warrior dividend of seventeen hundred and
seven million dollars for a million, four hundred thousand plus
military members. And could you imagine, first of all, they
(35:40):
get paid nothing, and and he just I just thought
it was just awesome. I mean, I think, of course,
I know, I think.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
It's great playing Devil's advocate and you're probably not gonna
like this is it just adds to the spending. Yeah,
but but I think I think they should revap because
you just said that Keith under they're underpaid. I think
they should revamp and really take a look at that.
Speaker 2 (36:06):
Yeah, I think all of our emergency workers are military workers.
They're way underpaid, and so, you know, especially nurses and
and and and the like. I just liked that.
Speaker 3 (36:20):
Nurses get paid at least, at least in California. I
don't know about the rest of the Yeah, but nurses
and doctors definitely get paid.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
As they should paid.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Yeah, paid well public employees such as you know, cops, right,
the police, law enforcement, military.
Speaker 2 (36:36):
So but it was still very very cool that well,
good timing with the holidays coming up, right, that that
finally beyond just nurses, you know, doctors, teachers, fire police.
That that you know, was so important and crucial that
we support and and and love helping as clients. By
(36:56):
the way, that also military current military personnel are going
to get a nice you know, at least are being
thought about to get some of this money that goes
out again, it goes out in subsidy to every important
industry or career, but often the military Christmas bonus yep, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3 (37:22):
Private private sector Christmas bond.
Speaker 2 (37:24):
I got us off on a tangent, but I thought
that was, you know, amazing to that note.
Speaker 3 (37:28):
What that does is it'll provide maybe hopefully a little
bit more discretionary income and therefore discretionary spending, right, which
will help out the economy, you know, towards the end
of this year, at least during the Christmas holiday. The
good news well this inflation day that's come out that
we didn't get to I don't. I don't believe we did.
(37:49):
Is wages have been increasing, and they've been increasing. The
hourly earnings have increased by three and a half percent
year over year. Why is that important Because that's greater
the then where inflation has been growing year, and that's
what we want. We want wages to increase more so
than inflation. Right, So you have real wages, right that
is actually keeping up and superseding inflation. You're actually able
(38:11):
to go out there and have a meaningful income to
be able to have an increase, right, you can buy more,
you can afford more, you can get that house, so
on and so forth. So that's that's very important. That's
important for the economy, and that's what we like to
see right, and not so much the handouts, yep.
Speaker 2 (38:30):
But in fact, you know, we go over this a
lot and spend some time on this particular you know,
threat to an economy and to going into a recession
is unemployment and wages. And so the fact is that
based on where we're at now, unemployment less than the
(38:51):
fives percent, which there's as far as I know, we
haven't gone into a recession when unemployment's been below five
and when you see wages that are increasing at a
faster clip than inflation, you can't have a recession. I mean,
I'm sure there's something, yeah, right, I'm sure there's something that,
(39:14):
you know, our politicians could blow up to make this
that not be the case. Certainly, Historically, when you have
wages outpacing inflation, inflation is basically in check. You have
unemployment still at full employment, I mean, you typically have
(39:36):
a good economy. So our outlook, you know, overall for
twenty twenty six, and I said it last weekend, is
we believe twenty twenty six is going to be a
good one. However, and then you can go into the
forecasts of you know, the different indices and what they
may go up to and what percent that is, but
there's still the government shut down, a budgetary issues going on,
(40:01):
you know, tariff policies where you know, in any given moment,
there could be a story about China or Canada sure
or you know, or I think China major trading partner,
trading partners, I'm not too concerned. The only ones really
that I'm more concerned on this China.
Speaker 3 (40:17):
Yeah, that one has the biggest impact. If you go
back and look at all the you know, uh lated
and trade related talks, China has had the biggest one
when it comes to China and it hits ahead tween
US in China. That usually has a biggest impact on
a stock market. Everything else not not as much.
Speaker 2 (40:34):
And I also think that that the market and as
far as where you make money in stocks is going
to broaden. I think it will be less about the
mag seven and twenty twenty six, It'll be it'll be
more about you know. What I like to say is
an indirect way to make money on the Fourth Industrial
(40:54):
Revolution is that you've got to be looking at certain
types of energy plays that will be powering data centers.
You got to look at you know, certain software plays,
certain manufacturing well, it.
Speaker 3 (41:05):
Could be something not even related to that. I mean,
we had Warner Brothers, uh just put into our one
of our growth portfolios not that long ago. I think
it was one month ago, and it's up double digits.
Warner Brothers. Yeah, well, have you ever thought of Warner Brothers? No? No,
But that's the thing. I mean, there's so many companies
(41:25):
that are great companies that pay a divits Warner Brothers,
as Warner Brothers came out and said, somebody, AI.
Speaker 2 (41:33):
There are important sectors and industries, and I think we're
going to see a broadening out of more companies that
are going to have good you know, from low high
single digit to low double digit you know, growth rates,
and then if you couple that with you know, the
dividends that they pay. For example, you know Owen's Corning.
(41:55):
I think you know, it was just a forgotten company
and and that could have a very year. It's way
off of its highs. And it's those kind of companies
like that that I think could could have a really
good year. But let's let's just roll out you know
the rest of your bullet points and.
Speaker 3 (42:14):
Yeah, real quick because we're out of time here. But
the twenty twenty six major forecast from all the major
investment banks, from Bank of America to Georgia Bank JP
Morgan Morgan Stanley varies pretty widely anywhere from well they
think S and P five hundred is going to finish
anywhere from seventy one hundred to eight thousand. So that's
(42:35):
about three percent from where we're at right now to
sixteen percent next year. But as we all know, they
come out at least on a quarterly basis or even
more frequently and revise them and so we'll keep track
of that. But other than that, it's been great talking
with you. I hope everybody has a great weekend and
a merry Christmas.
Speaker 2 (42:54):
Yeah, yep. You've been listening to John Scammery to Seppe
Piscani the wise money guys have a wonderful set to
day file
Speaker 4 (43:05):
Mmahm
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