Irans Regime Is FALLING APART From the Inside Now What Does Trump Do!

Iran’s regime is under extraordinary pressure, but what happens next could be even more consequential. Does Donald Trump make a deal with Tehran, order further military action, or seize what John Bolton believes may be a historic opportunity to fundamentally change the balance of power in the Middle East?

Erin Molan sits down with former U.S. National Security Advisor and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton for a wide-ranging conversation about Iran, Donald Trump, the Strait of Hormuz, regime change, China, Russia, Ukraine and the growing battle over America’s role in the world.

Bolton argues that Iran’s Islamic regime has “never been more unstable” and says competing centers of power and the damage inflicted on its leadership have created an extraordinary moment. But he also warns that any new Trump-Iran deal could leave the fundamental threats posed by Tehran unresolved.

Erin and Bolton also discuss why the Strait of Hormuz matters far beyond oil and gas prices, what Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states want from Washington, the divide over American foreign policy inside the Republican Party, and why Xi Jinping and China are closely watching America’s decisions in both Iran and Ukraine.

Then the conversation turns home: the Democratic Party’s move to the left, JD Vance and the future of Republican foreign policy, the 2026 midterm elections and what the battle for the 2028 presidential election could look like.

Donald Trump. Iran. Regime change. The Strait of Hormuz. China. The Middle East. This is a moment with consequences far beyond Tehran.

CHAPTERS:

0:00 Trump on Iran
0:30 Erin’s Introduction
1:08 John Bolton: Can Trump Make a Deal With Iran?
2:56 Is Regime Change in America’s Interest?
4:39 Who Is Really Shaping Trump’s Iran Strategy?
6:32 Gulf States, Iran and America’s Resolve
7:26 China Is Watching What America Does Next
9:13 The Far Left, JD Vance & America’s National Security
10:39 Bolton on the 2028 Presidential Race
11:10 Final Thoughts

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Donald Trump, Iran, John Bolton, Trump Iran, Iran war, Iranian regime, Iran regime change, Strait of Hormuz, Iran nuclear program, Middle East war, China, Xi Jinping, Russia, Ukraine, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, national security, U.S. foreign policy, 2026 midterms, 2028 election, Erin Molan, The Erin Molan Show

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
And we had oil down to less than to In
many places like Iowa, oil was down to gasoline was
down at numbers that people hadn't seen in years one
dollar in eighty five, one.

Speaker 2 (00:19):
Dollar and ninety five cents. So at past Tuesday I
was in Iowa at a stop and we had one
ninety five another one one eighty five a gallon. And
we'll see those days pretty soon again based on everything
I say, as soon as the war ends, and I
think it's gonna end pretty soon.

Speaker 3 (00:40):
John Bolton was the ambassador to the UN and the
National Security advisor to Donald Trump first term. Now, yeah,
they're not really on great terms anymore. I get it,
But it doesn't mean that he doesn't have incredible knowledge
when it comes to the regime in Iran and the

(01:00):
broader picture.

Speaker 4 (01:03):
What else is at.

Speaker 3 (01:03):
Staking and is there any kind of deal that can
be done that could be considered a win for the
United States?

Speaker 4 (01:15):
I asked him.

Speaker 3 (01:16):
Go and Bassador John Bolton, it's such a pleasure to
have you on the Aaron Mullinschaf, I'd love to get
straight into Iran. I think you've been one of the
best in this space, particularly over the last month or so.
So thank you for your voice. The Islamic regime of Iran,
in my opinion, are a group of people that cannot
do deals. They cannot stick to deals. We cannot trust

(01:38):
them in any way, shape or form. Do you see
a deal still as being a potential outcome I know
it's being touted again by President Trump. Or do you
see military action as the only way that this ends?

Speaker 5 (01:52):
Well, I don't see any deal that should be acceptable
to the United States or most of its allies. I
think right now Trump is obsessed with the price of
gasoline at the pump for American consumers. He's worried about
the November election, He's worried about the issue of inflation
what the Democrats call affordability. And I'm worried that he
could well accept some deal that is unacceptable for leaving

(02:16):
Iran and control of the Straight of Horror moves. But
we'll have to see what happens. But it's very hard
to predict on any given day what Trump's position will
be the next day. I mean, he threatens military action
against Iran, then he says we're close to a deal.
It depends on what time of day it is, which
line he's taking none of that is solving the fundamental problem,
the threat that Iran poses for its nuclear weapons program,

(02:39):
for support for international terrorism. Hamas has bellowed the Hoodies
and others, and now for this threat to free maritime
commerce through the Straight of Horror moves and via the
Hoodies in Yemen through the Babel Mandeb straight at the
southern end of the Red Sea. So there's a lot
at stake here, and as important as selene prices are

(03:00):
in the United States, all of these other issues remain outstanding.

Speaker 3 (03:05):
I understand that absolutely, And look, I don't envy his
position at all.

Speaker 4 (03:09):
I understand the domestic pressures at play.

Speaker 3 (03:12):
It is America first to rid the world of this regime,
isn't it? And I understand America's hesitation when it comes
to anything that even remotely resembles regime change. But there
are an army of people inside who do not support them,
who are desperate for change, who deserve their country back.
Do you look at that and do you see that

(03:34):
it is in America's interest or do you think that.
I mean, you've just said there's no deal you think
would be a suitable outcome.

Speaker 5 (03:43):
Well, look, I've said for over twenty years. You will
never have peace and stability in the Middle East as
long as this regime is in power in Tehran, That's
just a reality. There are a bunch of authoritarian, medieval
religious fanatics, and to them, making a deal just signals
the point at which the next kind of negotiation and begin.
I do believe that the inside Iran, the regime has

(04:04):
never been more unstable. I think the population is very
substantially against it. I think the US Israeli strikes back
in March and April did decimate the top of the regime.
I think the regime's inability to conduct a coherent policy
shows that there's nobody really in charge. There are different
competing centers of authority. So if there were ever an

(04:26):
opportunity for regime change, this is it. Not because we're
doing this as a favor for the people of Iran.
It's in America's interest to eliminate this potential nuclear threat
and the threat of international terrorism, and certainly for everybody
in the Middle East, it would be a much more
benign environment if this regime were replaced by almost anything else.

Speaker 3 (04:49):
You've been very close to where these kinds of decisions
are being made. You understand how it works. I know
it's different in every scenario, but I don't know if
you saw General Jack Kine on and he made the point,
and I've made it for months. I think anyone with
half a brain would make this point that it is
utterly ridiculous to have the likes of Pakistan and Katar
involved in anything to do with peacemaking. He also made

(05:12):
the point regarding Saudi Arabia four or five times, essentially
coming in at the last hour and stopping what were
potential military strikes on fairly significant targets. What do you
make of what is going on now in the White
House and where decisions are being made. And you've got
also the likes of a JD. Vance and a Marco Rubio,

(05:34):
who clearly they don't want very different outcomes I wouldn't imagine,
but they have very different ideas of how to get there.

Speaker 5 (05:41):
I think, well, I think the regime, the regime the
US government is foundering around at this point, and I
think part of the problem is that the coherent policymaking
mechanism of the National Security Council isn't working. I think
they've got negotiators trying to deal with the Iranians who
don't know the Middle East, don't understand nuclear weapons, don't

(06:04):
really grasp what's going on. And I think any negotiation
conducted through mediators, I don't care who the mediators are,
is always worse than face to face discussions. Neither one
guarantees an outcome, but mediation always increases the risk that
the two sides are just not agreeing on the same thing.
They may agree on a form of words on a
piece of paper, but have two very different meanings. And

(06:28):
I think in the Gulf, among the Golf Arab states,
there are differences of opinion, but I think it is
noteworthy that in the past couple of months you've seen
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait all
conduct military strikes against Irani. Not huge strikes, but this
is the first time this has happened in the last

(06:49):
seventy five years at least. And I think what the
Gulf Arabs are nervous about is they doubt Americas resolve
and staying power. If there's going to be conflict. They
want to be assured that we're not going to stop
just before victory is achieved, and that we will take
attacks on their civilian targets seriously, which we will, and

(07:10):
I think a better effort at coalition building here. Obviously
we've got a very strong alliance with Israel, but bringing
the Gulf Arab states along, integrating them into this, making
them feel like allies whose protection we consider a priority,
would make us all a lot more effective in dealing
What is the critical threat to peace and security in

(07:32):
the Middle East, and that is the regime in Iran.

Speaker 4 (07:36):
Looking slightly wider.

Speaker 3 (07:38):
And it's all related, as you would know better than
almost anyone, the rising thread of China rising thread.

Speaker 4 (07:45):
It's already there, isn't it very much?

Speaker 3 (07:47):
So what do you think they're looking at and thinking
right now? We saw reports of apparently shipments going into
Iran from China's Jujingping apparently told Trump, no, no, we
haven't done anything, and Trump seems to take him at
his word on that. How are they benefiting from all
of this and what would be the worst possible outcome

(08:10):
given they clearly Jijingping says it quite openly, they want
to be number one in the world.

Speaker 5 (08:16):
Well, I think China and many other countries are watching
both the situation in the Middle East and the war
in Ukraine to determine whether the United States is really
still prepared to act in its own national interest or
if it can be pushed around. If America first means isolationism,
China would be the biggest beneficiary internationally, no doubt about it.

(08:38):
I mean, I think, in fact, I've got it up
ed in the Washington Post this morning that says that
if you look at the most significant development out there,
which is the continually strengthening Beijing Moscow axis, all of
that ties together the Middle East, of what China wants
to do in the East China Sea and the South
China Sea, and the war in Ukraine. These wars are related,

(09:02):
whether we like it or not. And unless the United
States takes a strategic view of all three of these
conflicts and makes decisions how actions in one will be
necessary and how they affect the perceptions in the other
two conflicts, if we don't do that, we're going to
stumble into real problems.

Speaker 4 (09:23):
Yeah, I agree, Finally, Ambassador.

Speaker 3 (09:26):
Domestically, I mean, you've got a fair few enemies externally,
but these Democratic Socialist communists not cases that. Look, if
they were just using their voices loudly, I'd say well, okay,
that's something, but they seem to be winning power and
yet it's kind of small feed now, But are you
worried about that rise and what impact it could have

(09:48):
on your ability to protect yourselves from some fairly significant
external threats as well.

Speaker 5 (09:55):
Well, that's a major concern because large parts of the
Democrat Party appear to be moving very strongly leftward. And
for the Republicans tactically, that may be an advantage in
November because the far left candidates may be easier to defeat,
But if the entire party goes in that direction, I
think that's a real problem for the country as a whole.

(10:17):
And when you combine it with the JD vance kind
of isolationism in the Republican Party, you have to ask
who's left worried about the security of the country. So
I'm very worried. I think we'll see what happens in
the November congressional elections, but I think the twenty twenty
eight presidential election shaping up is absolutely critical. Who will
the Democrats nominate, who will Republicans nominate? Obviously, who will win?

(10:41):
It'll tell us a lot about the future direction of
the country. So once the November elections are over.

Speaker 3 (10:46):
That battle is underway, and Bessida, who's you peak for
the Democrats and for the Republicans.

Speaker 5 (10:53):
Well, I don't want to damage anybody on the Republican side,
but I do think it's got to be somebody who
believes in a strong national st security policy, and separating
themselves from Trump on that score is going to be difficult,
at least getting the nomination. On the Democratic side, the
question is whether they can nominate sort of a normal
person as their presidential candidate or whether they go to

(11:15):
one of these left wingers. I don't know what they're
going to do. They can be their own worst enemies.

Speaker 3 (11:20):
Yeah, well, the world is better off when there are
two strong parties in the US. At the moment, there's
really not. Ambassador, thank you for your time. I really
appreciate it.

Speaker 5 (11:29):
Thank you well, thanks again for having me