All Episodes

August 4, 2025 14 mins

For decades, the data collected by the apolitical Bureau of Labor Statistics was seen as a gold standard — informing decisions made by the Federal Reserve, global business leaders and even presidents.

But now, after President Trump’s firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer following a disappointing July jobs report — that could change.

On today’s Big Take podcast, Bloomberg’s Molly Smith joins host Sarah Holder to discuss the potentially sweeping policy ramifications of a shake-up at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mark as Played
Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its
monthly jobs report.

Speaker 1 (00:14):
So the job's data was not good just put it lightly.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
Molly Smith is an editor on the US Economy team
at Bloomberg.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
Not only did we get a week number for the
jobs added in July, the bigger problem in this report
was that there were really big downward revisions the prior
two months. They were actually the biggest since the pandemic for.

Speaker 2 (00:34):
The BLS, revisions are normal, it can take businesses a
while to respond to the agency's surveys, so a fuller
picture of the labor market comes with time.

Speaker 1 (00:44):
But Trump and his administration have really seized on these
revisions as a sign that BLS as an institution is
incompetent and that its data is inaccurate. So Trump was
not happy with these numbers.

Speaker 2 (00:57):
We had no confidence. I mean the numbers ridiculous.

Speaker 1 (01:00):
You said that they were rigged to make him and
Republicans look bad. It's a scam in my opinion, And
he immediately fired Erica mcintarford, who's the commissioner of the
Peer of Labor Statistics. She was appointed by Biden in
twenty twenty three, confirmed on a bipartisan basis in twenty
twenty four, including then Senator J. D Vance, now our

(01:23):
vice president, voted to confirm her.

Speaker 2 (01:26):
How did you react when you heard the news?

Speaker 1 (01:28):
I was stunned, for sure. Remember I thought that we
had just gotten through the big rush of covering the
jobs report that day, and the day took on a
whole other meaning in the scope though of like being
a journalist. During Trump's presidency, it hasn't been uncommon to
see him go after figures who he deems to be
people who are after him, or saying things that don't

(01:51):
flatter him, even though again the numbers are completely a political,
non partisan and frankly, have nothing to do with him.

Speaker 2 (02:01):
Molly says there's no evidence that the data coming out
of the BLS was inaccurate or manipulated for political reasons.
The BLS is designed to be independent, nonpartisan. It's tasked
with collecting and releasing data that reflect reality. But after
the firing of Erica mcintarfur critics are concerned that could change.

(02:26):
I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from
Bloomberg News Today. On the show What Firing the head
of the Bureau of Labor Statistics could mean for the
integrity of US economic data. Molly, Let's take a step back.
What kind of data is the Bureau of Labor Statistics

(02:47):
responsible for and how is that data typically used to
make decisions about the economy.

Speaker 1 (02:53):
BLS puts out some of the most important numbers on
employment and inflation in the US, and BLS, in addition
to some of its counterparts at the Census Bureau and
Bureau of Economic Analysis, have a gold standard reputation globally
for producing some of the really the most quality and nonpartisan,

(03:13):
free of political influence statistics in the world. And some
of the data that we're talking about here the Jobs Report,
also the Consumer Price Index, the widely followed CPI for
the inflation data. These are really important reports for businesses
and governments at all levels for setting information about wages, prices,

(03:34):
hiring decisions, adjusting social security benefits. It really has a
whole range of uses to, you know, people at all
levels of business and government.

Speaker 2 (03:45):
I wanted to dig into some of that data that
the BLS was releasing this year. What was the BLS
data showing about the early months of Trump's presidency at
the US economy.

Speaker 1 (03:56):
So so far, the labor market has really been fairly resilient,
and throughout Trump's presidency and even coming out of the
COVID years as well. It's been a lot of the
reason why the Federal Reserve has not felt the need
to cut interest rates yet because there hasn't really been
a market deterioration in the labor market. That unemployment is

(04:17):
still pretty low, job gains are still pretty decent. Granted,
this report, though, really changed a lot of how we
thought about the labor market, especially because just a few
days before, we had FED Jared Jerome Powell saying that
the labor market is solid, it's broadly balanced, very good,
and to then see this report two days later really

(04:37):
cast a lot of doubt on those characterizations. Remember, there
were also two FED governors who wanted to cut interest
rates at that meeting, and they said it was because
the labor market was much weaker under the surface than
what the data suggested, and one of them, in particular,
FED Governor Chris Waller, had said that there were expected
data revisions that were going to show.

Speaker 2 (04:59):
That we're anticipating what eventually happened, which was a revision
to the past few months of data coming out of
the jobs report that showed that things were weaker under
the surface.

Speaker 1 (05:12):
Right, Yeah, and there has been some pattern of that
in the latest jobs report. You have to understand, this
is a report that has so many statistics in it.
It's maybe like thirty something pages with a lot of numbers,
a lot of rows on every page. And you look
at the headline numbers for the most part, Right, we
look at non farm payrolls, what happened in the month,

(05:32):
We look at the unemployment rate, and we look at
the change in wages of wage gains. Those are the
three primary numbers, but there's so much more beyond that
that come from the jobs report. So that's what a
lot of people have been taking notice of that. Maybe
the headline numbers look good, but under the surface there's
reason for concern.

Speaker 2 (05:54):
So for several months, even as Trump's trade policies created
uncertainty that rock the markets, those headline jobs numbers weren't
raising any major alarms. But in the July report that changed.
What kinds of reactions did you see immediately after the
report was published? What did it mean about the job market?

(06:14):
The effects of the trade war?

Speaker 1 (06:16):
So I think that this was just more showing that
the labor market broadly is weakening, and certainly a lot
weaker than we thought, particularly through the earlier months of
the summer. Remember coming out of COVID, it was so
so strong, like unsustainably strong, you know, it inevitably had
to come back to earth. And now it's just more
of seeing that, you know, consumers have been dealing with

(06:38):
years and years of inflation, and that how is that
now maybe starting to affect the job market more broadly?
And certainly Trump's policies are playing a part in this too,
But it wasn't really one category that stood out and
was like boom, that's tariffs right there.

Speaker 2 (06:54):
In the hours after the job's report dropped on Friday morning,
markets slumpt the worst day on the nast that one
hundred since April, the west week since May, and that
says we get that so called resilient jobs market with
some cracks showing. Just after two pm Eastern on Friday afternoon,
Trump posted on truth Social that he was directing his

(07:15):
team to fire Erica mcintarfer, and that set off its
own chain reaction.

Speaker 1 (07:21):
I think you've seen economists and statisticians from both sides
of the Aisle of You know, both political ideologies come
to mcintarfur's defense as well as that of the BLS
as an institution, to say that she's a very well
respected economist who had served the Biden administration, but she's
also was in the Census Bureau. She was at the

(07:42):
Department of Treasury over the course of twenty years under
presidents of both parties. So she has a very very
good reputation in the community. And to see economists, again
of both political ideologies say that this does not reflect
on her as a person or her competencies whatsoever, that
this is a normal part of the data collection process.

(08:04):
And what Trump has done here has now undermined confidence
in the institution, which really, what good or statistics if
we can't trust them. Is he now going to put
somebody in place at the top that makes us doubt
whether the figures are really free of political influence? That's
really now what the concern is.

Speaker 2 (08:27):
We dig into that concern and what this all means
for policymakers like the FED after the break. The Bureau
of Labor Statistics is responsible for collecting and analyzing some

(08:47):
of the most foundational data to the US economy. The
Federal Reserve, for example, looks to the BLS's inflation and
unemployment figures to make interest rate decisions. So I asked
Bloomberg's US Economy editor Mollie Smith, how Trump's firing of
the head of this critical agency could undermine public trust
in the data it produces.

Speaker 1 (09:09):
I think what this does is really plants a seed
that there's reason now to think that the numbers may
not be free of political influence going forward, which is
something that we've all understood to be true up until
this point, and that the BLS will tell you that
the data that it produces is nonpartisan and independent, and

(09:29):
that is so much of where the value in it
comes from. And if we lose that understanding, then what
good are these numbers anymore?

Speaker 2 (09:38):
People across the political spectrum reacted to the move with concern.
On Friday, shortly after Trump's announcement, Republican Senator Tom Tillis
told reporters he wanted more information about the president's motivations.
It was just fired because the president or whoever decided
to buire the director, just did them because they didn't
like the numbers.

Speaker 1 (09:58):
They had to grow up.

Speaker 2 (10:00):
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers disputed Trump's accusation of data
manipulation on ABC's This Week.

Speaker 1 (10:06):
This is a preposterous charge.

Speaker 2 (10:09):
The Trump administration has continued to defend mcintarfur's firing, saying
the move comes on the heels of the biggest downward
revision in years. Here's Trump's National Economic Council Director Kevin
Hassett on NBC's Meet the Press.

Speaker 1 (10:23):
And what we need is a fresh out of eyes
over at the BLS.

Speaker 2 (10:28):
In the short term. Who is running the agency? And
will we get in August jobs report?

Speaker 1 (10:33):
So yes, the man who was the deputy commissioner is
now acting commissioner in the interim, and I think even
before the August employment report, we're all probably looking more
to the July CPI report first. So that's what's going
to be coming out over the course of the next week.
I mean, who knows. We also could have a new
commissioner before then. Trump did say Sunday night that he'd

(10:56):
be looking to name somebody in the course of the
next few days. Granted though that person is subject to
Senate confirmation, which I'm sure is not going to happen
in the next week. So it will take some time
to see how this plays out.

Speaker 2 (11:10):
In the meantime, the July jobs report could have its
own real world implications. When the Federal Reserve meets in
September to discuss interest rates, it'll use that BLS data
to inform its decisions.

Speaker 1 (11:22):
Trump has made his intentions very clear he wants interest
rates lower. Ironically, the Chili jobs report, for all of
the flaws that the President pointed out, actually helps advance
that directive that it was so poor that people immediately
brushed to put bets that the Fed would lower rates
in September. So, if anything, actually the worst jobs numbers

(11:44):
help advance the idea that the Fed is going to
cut interest rates.

Speaker 2 (11:48):
The Federal Reserve is another historically a political agency that
has become a major target for President Trump. He's repeatedly
threatened to replace FED Chair Jerome Powell over his interest decisions,
and on Friday, just after Trump fired Macintarfur from BLS,
a member of the Fed's Board of Governors resigned. Replacing

(12:09):
that board member gives Trump an opportunity to appoint someone
new who shares his views on lowering rates, and it's
possible that the new board member could be Trump's preferred
pick to ultimately replace Powell as FED chair. I asked
Mollie what these coinciding events might mean for the economy
and for the integrity of our economic data.

Speaker 1 (12:30):
Well, it gives Trump now this opportunity to put two
people in place who are going to be responsible for
overseeing really important economic data and making decisions that shape
monetary policy. The US has a really sprawling statistical system.
It's thirteen principal agencies in total, spread throughout the government

(12:51):
that compile statistics on everything from education to health to
agriculture in the economy and goes far beyond unemployment rate
and inflation and a lot of the numbers that we
care about primarily here in Financial News. The trust in
the data and to understand that it's not meant to
serve anything but a public good is really paramount to

(13:14):
the foundation of what federal statistics are.

Speaker 2 (13:17):
And did Trump's act of firing the head of the
BLS shake that foundation totally?

Speaker 1 (13:22):
Yeah? I mean this is really where the crux of
this centers around. Is the BLS still going to be
respected as a non partisan institution going forward that can
we still trust its data will be free of political influence,
and I think a lot of the consensus around that
so far is yes that Remember, the commissioner is one

(13:44):
person in it's an agency of roughly two thousand people,
similar to the FED. That it's not like FED shared
Jerome Powell is the sole person who has control over
what interest rates are. It's a collective process in both
of these institutions. But the second that you make a
position that is perceived to be a political political a

(14:07):
lot of that trust comes into question.

Speaker 2 (14:10):
Well, Mollie, thank you so much for joining us.

Speaker 1 (14:12):
Thanks for having me.

Speaker 2 (14:16):
This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder.
To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access
to all of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg
dot com slash podcast offer. If you liked this episode,
make sure to follow and review The Big Take wherever
you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show.
Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.
Advertise With Us

Hosts And Creators

Sarah Holder

Sarah Holder

Saleha Mohsin

Saleha Mohsin

Popular Podcasts

On Purpose with Jay Shetty

On Purpose with Jay Shetty

I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!

Dateline NBC

Dateline NBC

Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Special Summer Offer: Exclusively on Apple Podcasts, try our Dateline Premium subscription completely free for one month! With Dateline Premium, you get every episode ad-free plus exclusive bonus content.

24/7 News: The Latest

24/7 News: The Latest

The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.

Music, radio and podcasts, all free. Listen online or download the iHeart App.

Connect

© 2025 iHeartMedia, Inc.