Markets Happy Hour Podcast - LIVE from Tampa, February 27, 2025 - In the Crosshairs

In this week's live Markets Happy Hour Podcast, we traveled to Tampa, Florida, and were privileged to share insights from post-hurricane recovery and consumer sentiment on the ground, as well as observations from professionals who focus on private debt and venture debt.

We started with a discussion of recent market developments - what some have termed Trump 2.1. The fall in the 10 year yield, the dollar and the oil price may stack up like a "wish list" of the new administration, but it actually seemed to be a reaction to less than positive market news. The focus of the week has been on DOGE and its immediate effect on government agencies, a well as its more indirect effect on markets and sentiment.

We examine the fall in consumer sentiment, the rise in uncertainty and some of the unintended consequences of broad geopolitical action - such as the galvanizing of support within Europe for more defense spending. We do a bit more of a deep dive into US v. European defense spending with one guest suggesting he would choose a relative value trade given that a less expansionist USA needs to spend less on defense while Europe clearly needs - and has committed - to spend more.

We hear a lot too about pendulums swinging back and forth - often too far in one direction, as is the case with anti-engagement and anti-DEI sentiment today, and as may be the case with digital asset euphoria. Many of our participants believed in taking the long view and waiting out some of the short term market volatility, which is of course easier said than done.