Bulls, Bears, & The Bell Afternoon Edition 11/7/25

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Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Welcome to the Deep Dive. Today we are cracking open a
market brief from Friday, November 7th, 2025.
And it's a day where, well, market sentiment was decidedly
grim. If you're looking at the
indexes, the NASDAQ is currentlyset to cap its worst week since
March. This isn't just a dip.
It feels like an environment of accelerating fear.

(00:21):
Oh, absolutely. And that fear is definitely
measurable for anyone tracking investor anxiety.
You know, we look at the CBOE Volatility Index, the VIX, Wall
Street's fear gauge, right? It's trading high today, 20.44.
That's its highest in what, over2 weeks?
It signals a real, tangible demand for portfolio protection,
a clear breakdown of confidence in the market.

(00:43):
OK, so let's unpack this for you.
Our mission today is really to distill the sources to figure
out the why behind all this financial anxiety.
Our research points to a kind ofperfect storm, a toxic collision
of two major crises happening atthe same time, right?
First, there's this technical tech sell off driven by
skepticism around artificial intelligence.
And 2nd, this paralyzing macroeconomic issue we're
calling the data vacuum. Yeah, the data vacuum.

(01:05):
So the goal then is to understand how the market
operates when, you know, the lights are suddenly turned off,
when that official economic datajust vanishes corporate
earnings, they stop being just about one company, they start
being treated as like de facto economic reports.
And this whole environment, it'sperfectly illustrating a massive
and frankly dangerous K shaped divergent in the US economy.

(01:27):
K yeah, where the top half thrives and the bottom half just
collapses. That's the central theme we need
to get our heads around today. But first, let's tackle the
immediate driver of the sell offE mini, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100,
Dow, they're all decisively negative in futures.
NASDAQ 100 leading the way down.What's driving this sudden
technical route? I mean, this is the most crowded

(01:48):
trade in the world. Well, what's fascinating here is
that the primary pressure point isn't like a surprise rate hike
or anything. It's what analysts are calling
the AI valuation reckoning. Investors are aggressively
booking profits. They're getting out of positions
because there's growing skepticism over what they see
is, you know, sky high valuations in key AI stocks.

(02:08):
And this is where it gets reallyinteresting, isn't it?
It's not just that the stocks are expensive.
There's this sophisticated bearish theory gaining fraction
that actually challenges the underlying business model
itself. Precisely the core of this
argument centers on concerns over monetization and circular
spending within the industry. Think of it this way.

(02:30):
AI revenue growth might look explosive on paper, right?
But if you actually dig into where it's coming from, a
significant chunk of that capital flow might be an
internal bubble. An internal bubble, like
siblings selling the same toy back and forth.
Kind of, yeah. It's like a small handful of
tech giants, say, open AI, Amazon, Microsoft, investing
billions in each other's infrastructure, servers,

(02:52):
software, chips. They're fueling this massive
capital intensive cycle. I see.
The theory is that we're mistaking these huge capital
expenditures for real broad organic customer demand.
If that's true, it drastically shrinks the perceived total
addressable market that's concerned.
It creates A fundamental vulnerability.
Now, you couple that AI skepticism with the macro

(03:13):
problem crisis #2 the data blackout.
We're dealing with the longest government shutdown in history,
and that is just compounding themarket anxiety into something
near panic. Right.
And the most direct impact of this political mess is the data
vacuum, specifically the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The BLS did not release the official October jobs report
today, November 7th. In that absence, it's paralyzing

(03:36):
That jobs report along with inflation data, retail sales.
That's what the Federal Reserve uses to set policy.
Without it, the market and the Fed are basically flying blind.
Flying blind. This uncertainty forces that
critical shift we talked about. Investors have to look at
corporate earnings and management guidance to get any
sense of macro clarity. It dramatically raises the

(03:57):
stakes for every single report coming out.
And we're already seeing shocking evidence that this
shutdown is inflicting real economic damage, especially on
the US consumer, particularly atthe low end.
Yeah, this historic instability is being confirmed right now by
the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment
index for November. It's slumped sharply to 50.3.
That's a 3 1/2 year low, but thereally shocking stat is buried

(04:21):
inside that number. The current conditions
component. It fell to an all time low in
the survey's entire 73 year history.
An all time low in current conditions.
That's staggering, especially when the financial markets are,
you know, still only down a few percent overall.
We need to drill down on this. Who exactly is feeling that pain

(04:42):
so acutely? Well, the research we reviewed
suggests this historic collapse is explicitly tied to shutdown
concerns tied to SNP, IT, food payments and ongoing nonpayment
of wages. Yeah.
And just to be clear, SNFP is the Supplemental Nutrition
Assistance Program, Federal foodassistance.
OK. The market is worried.
The shutdown is literally preventing the delivery of basic

(05:02):
necessities to the most vulnerable people.
Wow, it really feels like we're tracking 2 entirely separate
countries within one economy. And we can see that K shaped
divergent playing out perfectly in today's pre market movers,
can't we? On the upside, you've got this
high end resilience. That's the top arm of the K.
Exactly. Expedia EXPE is the poster child

(05:22):
today surging over 17.5% blowoutQ3 earnings.
They raise guidance and their B2B growth was really strong,
like 26%. This just confirms that the
affluent consumer, the folks spending on travel, they seem
entirely unfazed by all this macro turmoil.
They keep spending. Their financial assets are
holding up. Right, their lifestyle is
preserved. And then you have the mirror

(05:44):
image, the collapsing bottom armof the K that's Block SQ, the
sort of anti Expedia today, plunging 11% after missing on
both profit and sales forecasts.Block is such a critical proxy
here. It's ecosystem, you know the
square terminals for small businesses, the Cash app for
consumers. It's a direct real time pulse
check on the health of small to medium businesses and the lower

(06:05):
to middle income consumer. So their miss confirms the
University of Michigan data. It does.
The real economy where basic income and small business
revenue actually happened, it's contracting sharply.
So if we connect these dots, themarket is confirming this
dangerous split. High end spending is fine, maybe
even booming, but the foundational consumer, the small

(06:26):
business sector, they're showingreal signs of collapse.
The problem is the financial economy.
The stock owners remain relatively optimistic while the
real autonomy hits a 73 year low.
In current conditions, that seems unsustainable.
That structural split places an immense, almost impossible
burden on the week ahead. Let's look at what we're calling

(06:47):
the Macro Data Gauntlet for November 10th through 14th.
OK. So we have key inflation reports
scheduled CPIPPI, but the uncertainty around them is huge,
right? That's the critical risk, the
high likelihood of delay. Analysts calendars list them,
sure, but government focused analysis we've seen explicitly
states that reports from the BLSand Census Bureau, which
includes PPI and retail sales, are highly likely delayed

(07:09):
because of the shutdown. So the market has to hedge
against the unknown. That VIX probably stays elevated
then. Probably.
Which means if that key inflation data is delayed, the
markets left with only a few macro indicators, and those
indicators take on enormous, almost disproportionate weight.
So what are the absolute must watch reports then?
The focus narrows sharply. 2 things first, initial jobless

(07:32):
claims on Thursday, November 13th.
Because the main BLS jobs reportis missing, this weekly number
becomes the only official high frequency look at the US labor
market. It's the stand in.
Any significant jump there wouldbe bad news.
Immediate panic potentially. And the second focus is entirely
on debt and government stability.
The US Treasury auctions, particularly the critical 10

(07:55):
year note auction, a weak resultmeaning low demand for U.S.
Debt from international buyers or institutions would send
Treasury yield spiking. And that yield spike feeds right
back into the tech sell off. Instantly it worsens the
technical at tech AI sell off. We're already seeing tightens
financial conditions across the board.
And adding to this domestic stress, we can't really look
externally for growth support, can we?

(08:16):
The global picture isn't great either.
No, not really. We need to briefly acknowledge
that weak external environment. China is expected to report
continued deflation and a persistent slowdown in growth.
This matters because, you know, for years, whenever the US
looked weak, investors could chase growth somewhere else,
maybe China, maybe commodities that.
Safety valve is. Gone.

(08:37):
That luxury is gone. Yeah, the US market is forced to
confront its own domestic problems without that external
lifeline. OK, given that reality, let's
move to our next section, the AIearnings referendum, because it
sounds like the market leading AI theme isn't just delivering
reports next week, it's basically standing trial.
That's exactly it. This is the central event, the

(08:57):
earnings from key AI bellwethers, specifically
Applied Materials, AMAT and NVIDIA NVDA.
This is the put up or shut up moment for the entire bull
thesis that's driven the market for what, 18 months now?
Let's start with AMAT on Thursday, November 13th.
Why is that one being called theCanary in the coal mine?
Well, AMAT provides the really complex capital equipment to the

(09:19):
chip makers. Think of them as gauging the
semiconductor supply chain before the chips are even sold.
Their guidance on future equipment orders, that's a
direct forward-looking read on what the industry plans to
spend. So it's predictive.
Highly predictive, A weak guide on capital equipment orders from
a mat would be a catastrophic forward signal for the whole AI

(09:40):
and chip sector. Would basically confirm the
bearish fears before NVIDIA evenreports and.
Then NVIDIA is the main event. What does their management?
Absolutely have to do to counteract the skepticism that's
already knocking the stock down.It was down 9% this week alone.
The market needs Nvda's management to explicitly address
that circular spending narrativewe talked about earlier.

(10:01):
They have to provide concrete evidence, some proof that their
customer base is broadening out beyond that small handful of
tech giants who might just be funding each other.
So even if they beat the quarterly numbers?
Even if they beat expectations, yeah, failure to provide that
proof of broader demand could instantly validate the internal
bubble thesis, and that could crash the entire AI momentum

(10:23):
trade. Wow, OK now Wednesday November
12th gives us another perfect ABstudy of that K shaped economy
you mentioned. We have Disney DIS reporting
that gives us a read on the realworld consumer right theme
parks, movies, streaming churn. Exactly.
And that contrasts really sharply with Circle CRCL
reporting the same day Circle issues the USDC stablecoin.

(10:47):
Its revenue is a direct proxy for digital payments for the
health of the whole crypto ecosystem.
Putting Disney, you know, real world leisure next to Circle the
digital economy, that's going tooffer some unique insight into
where capital and consumer activity are really flowing in
this split market. That's a fascinating comparison.
Finally, we need to keep an eye on what you call the old tech
recession. Check Cisco CSCO also on

(11:08):
Thursday November 13th. Yeah, Cisco.
IT represents core enterprise ITbudgets, networking gear,
infrastructure, security, the basics.
If Cisco guides down significantly, it signals that
the economic pain is spread beyond just the lower end
consumer we saw with Block. It means corporations are
pulling back. It means corporate IT managers

(11:29):
are cutting back on core enterprise spending.
That would be a powerful signal of a broad corporate recession.
That's a far more bearish event for the whole S&P 500 than just
a localized wobble in, you know,some high flying AI stocks.
This has been a really insightful deep dive to try and
synthesize this for everyone listening.
The market is in a deeply fragile state.

(11:50):
It's kind of data blind because of the political paralysis.
And this state is dominated by that tension between the
resilient high end consumer, Expedia's blowout results and
the collapsing low end consumer confirmed by blocks failures and
that shocking 73 year low in sentiment, right?
This K shaped reality places this immense maybe on precedent
and burden on next week's earnings.

(12:10):
They have to serve as our economy's true, albeit
incomplete, health reports. And that data scarcity creates
risk, absolutely, but it also creates singular focus.
If CPI and PPI are delayed, the market's attention will narrow
right down to the most basic inputs, weekly jobless claims,
and the demand for U.S. debt andthose Treasury options.
So given that the shutdown is keeping the official data

(12:31):
hidden, ask yourself this. Which single piece of corporate
guidance next week? Is it Applied Materials, NVIDIA
or Cisco? Which one holds the greatest
power to either amplify the fearand signal a broad recession or
maybe, just maybe, restore some faith in the overall direction
of the US economy?