Why some people say they "knew it all along" I The Hindsight Effect

A decision flops, a deadline slips, a plan fails — and suddenly everyone “knew” it would happen. But did they? Or are we rewriting the past to protect our pride?

In this episode, Martin Wolf and Dr. Verena Seibert-Giller explore Hindsight Bias, the brain’s sneaky habit of altering memories once an outcome is known. It feels harmless — but it quietly undermines accountability, distorts learning, and poisons feedback culture.

They dive into:

– Why we mistake outcome clarity for past insight

– How hindsight bias makes leaders overconfident (and team members hesitant)

– The risk of punishing others for what wasn’t knowable at the time

– Why complex systems (like startups or politics) are especially vulnerable

– A concrete reflection hack to track knowledge as it evolves

This episode helps you separate memory from reality, protect psychological safety in post-mortems, and replace shallow blame with better decision hygiene — especially when things go wrong.