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July 8, 2024 14 mins

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Curious about the future of the trucking industry and the challenges it faces? Join me, Walter Gatlin, as I read from David Spencer, Vice President of Market Intelligence, to uncover why a full rate recovery might be a distant dream until 2025. We’ll explore the complex topic of immigration, making crucial distinctions between legal and illegal entries, and discuss how this affects our fellow drivers. Plus, we’ll dive into the urgent issue of Hurricane Beryl, which threatens South Texas, and why staying vigilant and safe is more critical than ever.

Keeping your finger on the pulse of the trucking world has never been more essential. This episode of the Rollin' 18 Podcast will equip you with invaluable insights into employment trends, including why you should think twice before switching jobs during these uncertain times. Learn about recent shifts in warehousing jobs, declining long-distance truckload positions, and fluctuations in truck transportation wages. With practical advice on maintaining job stability and financial prudence, this is one episode you won’t want to miss. Stay informed, stay prepared, and stay safe on the road.

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Email me anytime with news, suggestions, and stories at rollin18podcast@gmail.com. God bless, be safe, and keep it between the lines drivers.

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome to Rollin' 18 Podcast.
This 40-year veteran is herefor anyone wanting to stay up to
date with the trucking world.
Grab your coffee, hop on boardand let's get on down the road
with Walter Gatlin.

Speaker 2 (00:19):
Hello drivers, welcome to Rollin' 18 Podcast.
I am your host, walter Gatlin.
I appreciate you folkslistening to my podcast.
Be sure and check out all thelinks down below in the
description.
Now, I still haven't found outwhether or not you can comment
on Buzzsprout, which is myprimary podcast server location,
so that's something I'm goingto have to work on.

(00:40):
But we also know that you cancomment just about anywhere else
on Facebook, instagram places.
Wherever Roland A-Team Podcastis, you can comment, but believe
you me, I will get you ananswer on that.
I wanted to bring up illegalimmigration for a second.
I know I've always said wedon't discuss politics and I'm
not, but basically I found outsome truths today reading some

(01:05):
articles and I kind of want toremind everybody that
immigration is a normal thing inthis country.
Illegal immigration is whatmost people should be screaming
about Now.
We have a lot of immigrantsthat come in here legally.
They do things the right way.
They come in here and theybecome American citizens through
the process.
It could take years.
I don't know how long it takesactually, but I know they spend

(01:27):
thousands upon thousands ofdollars to get this done.
Even legal immigrants aregetting sucker punched in the
stomach by the government, byall these illegals coming in and
then getting all this money inorder to stay in their life,
which is something that we haveto work hard to do, but they get
to do it for free.
That's what people are pissedoff about.
It's not the fact that peopleare coming over here, and I

(01:48):
think the reason I bring this upas a truck driver we get mad at
foreigners for being in heredriving a truck, not knowing the
rules, blah, blah, blah.
We've got to be a little morecompassionate about this.
Okay, and I know we are, butlet's open our minds up for a
second and realize.
You cannot judge every singleforeign person driving a vehicle
as being an illegal immigrantor somebody that doesn't know

(02:09):
how to drive and all this otherstuff.
Maybe they're not asexperienced as we are, or you
are, or somebody else is, butmaybe they really want to be,
maybe they want to do the rightthing.
Maybe we should judge themafter we know the full story
about them.
That's the whole point.
Nobody wants illegalimmigration because it's
confusing.
People come in here, they'rereleased, nobody really knows

(02:30):
their background, they don'tknow who they are.
They haven't been tested to seeif they're going to assimilate
into our nation and make greatAmericans for the rest of us,
because the last thing we wantto do is pay for somebody else's
lifestyle.
We work hard for our money andthe government takes too much of
it as it is, so we add 30million more people in the mix

(02:51):
and those are 30 more million wehave to pay for to survive, in
order that they can eat and havea roof over their head, and
things like that.
Think twice next time beforeyou think about an immigrant and
realize there are many storiesto many different things.
Get the conclusion before youmake a statement.
Okay, it's that simple.
We're smarter than that.
We are the largest industry inthe world.

(03:13):
We need to start acting like itNow.
I don't know if you drivers haveheard or not, but Hurricane
Burrell is likely to impactSouth Texas today and it's in
the ports of Brownsville andCorpus Christi Texas area
they're saying prepare for thestorm's arrival.
The story here says the CoastGuard set port condition whiskey
for the parts of Brownsvilleand Corpus Christi, texas,

(03:36):
through Monday in anticipationof Hurricane Burl's arrival.
Corpus Christi and Brownsvilleport officials said they are
closely monitoring newdevelopments with the storm
Under port condition whiskey,ports and other facilities can
remain open for commercialoperations.
But if you're out there and youend up getting a load on Monday
and or Tuesday, keep a lookout.

(03:56):
Understand yeah, they can giveout notices on the phone and
stuff it might be too late.
The thing of it is, if it getsto the point where they think
it's going to be something realsavage, like then you need to
figure out a way to get the heckout of the area and, regardless
of what anybody says, take ahiatus or find a place where you
can be safe until the stormgoes over.
And the main thing is to findout how long that storm is going

(04:19):
to last by checking radar tosee how fast that storm is
moving.
So if you guys are going to bein the South Texas area on
Monday and Tuesday, be diligentand protect yourself.
Make sure you make it homealive.
Now there's a writer, johnKingston, and I follow him quite
a bit on Freightwaves and hehas wrote a story about a minor

(04:40):
decline in truck transportationjobs, reported for June.
I'm hearing a lot of talkthere's going to be a major
recession by the end of the year.
I'm hoping that's not true, butif that happens, we all need to
be ready.
Now he writes here.
Truck transportation jobs hadan uneventful month in June,
dropping by the smallestincrement that the Bureau of
Labor Statistics reports.

(05:01):
Changes up or down are reportedby the BLS in increments of 100
, unless they're zero, and thatis the change reported by BLS
for June a decline of 100 jobsto 1,548,600 jobs.
The BLS also reported downwardrevisions for May and April.

(05:21):
Now the seasonally adjustedfigure for May was 1,548,700
jobs, down 1,400 jobs from whatwas posted a month earlier for
May.
Now you have to remember onejob loss is a lot, because that
means somebody lost their joband they're not going to be able
to pay their bills.
The April figure, which is nowfinal until the big full-year

(05:42):
revision in the February report,was down 700 jobs.
Now the net result of thelatest changes and mostly
negative numbers have beenracked up in the last two years
is that the truck transportationjobs in June were at the lowest
level since last October, whenthey were 1,548,200 jobs.

(06:02):
They got as high as 1,556,400in March before falling back to
their current level and I thinkthe current, the new norm, is
going to be 1,548,700 jobs.
Okay, I think that's going tobe the new norm.
The low was the 1,548,200.
The high was the 1,556,400.

(06:24):
I think we're going to be stuckat that 1,548,700.
The lack of growth continues tobe expected throughout the year
and I've been bringing that up,given that spot rates have
trended along the floor for mostof the year.
Now David Spencer, vicePresident of the Market
Intelligence, said in hismonthly commentary on the BLS
report and you can follow thatby typing in monthly commentary

(06:48):
on the BLS report.
That way you guys can get asense of what's going on in the
trucking industry.
Going on in the truckingindustry.
However, an expected bump inspot rates throughout the summer
peak season was likely.
What contributed to stableemployment in June.
So we can't expect more layoffs.
We can't expect irregular loads.
We can't expect things to getbusy and then slow and then busy

(07:11):
and slow.
Pocket some of your money,don't spend lavishly.
Do what you got to do to makesure all your bills are paid and
then spread out your dollarsthin, because I don't know
what's going to happen this year.
Stability is the best theindustry can hope for now,
according to Spencer.
He says we are encouraged bythe relative year-over-year in
growth this summer peak season,but still feel the indicators

(07:35):
point to a full rate recovery in2025 at the earliest, he said.
As such, we think stability inemployment levels is the best
case scenario in the short term.
I don't know how we're going tobecome stable in 2025 when
things right now are lookingtowards a full recession by the
end of this year or, you know,towards the end of this year.

(07:56):
But this is what they'rereading with the numbers and I
think the numbers are lying alittle bit.
So you guys, be careful outthere.
Try real hard to keep moneystashed away, do what you can to
invest in things that are nothigh risk and do your best to
not buy a bunch of expensivestuff.
That's about all we can do.
He says one sign that the steadydecline in jobs may have

(08:17):
bottomed came in the notseasonally adjusted figures.
While economists look to theseasonally adjusted numbers as
key, others caution that the notseasonably adjusted figures
should not be ignored.
They are the basis for aseasoned adjustment factor that
then produces the seasonallyadjusted figure.
Now they're using the wordseasonally so many times.

(08:38):
I'm getting tired of reading it, but truck transportation jobs
climbed to 1,559,400 in June andit puts the figure well above
February low of 527.
It also marks the secondstraight month of a sharp
increase in not seasonallyadjusted jobs.
So what is the main story here?

(08:59):
The main story here is thewarehousing and storage jobs.
Okay, they've reached theirbottom plateau.
They're starting to climb backup a little bit.
And what does that tell us?
That tells us that things arestarting to stabilize and
normalize and that is a verygood sign for 2025.
So if you guys are out there,you have a great job and you're

(09:19):
doing well, but you're bored,but you're thinking about
quitting, maybe switching jobsbecause you're, eh, just want to
try something new, you may bejumping out of the pan into the
fire.
Remember that A lot ofcompanies may be having problems
right now that you're unawareof and they're like oh yeah,
come on board.
You get on board and all of asudden, boom, they close the
doors or they cut half theirstaff.

(09:41):
That's not what you want.
If you are at a stable companyand you know the entrance of
that company, you hear what'sgoing on.
Oh, we're doing fine.
You know, because normally whenyou work for a company, you can
hear what's going on with thecompany and you can also produce
what's going on with thecompany because you're actually
doing the work and you know that, okay, we're staying steady,
we're moving steady.
If that's the case, stay whereyou're at.

(10:02):
I don't recommend anybody unlessthey know for a fact change a
job if they're at a stableposition until this weave and
wave goes away.
You know, we either drop into arecession by the end of the
year or we get close, but wenever make it there and then we
start to climb out in 2025.
Do your best to take care ofyour job.

(10:23):
Do your best to take care ofyourself.
Give it six months.
See what happens.
If, after Christmas, everythingseems normal and you want to
get a different position with itor a different driving job with
a different company, go for it.
But until then, I would holdoff.
If you have a steady job, holdoff and do your best not to
change positions.

(10:44):
Now, another thing is thesubcategory of long-distance
truckload drivers.
And if you don't know what thatmeans, look up subcategory of
long-distance truckload driversand they report on a month lag,
or a one-month lag, and it fellto 539,000 jobs in May from
541,900.

(11:05):
You see what I'm saying and andit early in the month is when
that was reported it's downalmost 10 000 jobs in the last
year, so I don't know where thisfluctuation is going to go.
And also from uh bls report onemployment, the not seasonably
adjusted average hourly wage fortruck transportation workers,

(11:26):
who are considered productionand non-supervisory, cracked $30
per hour for the first timeever, coming in right at that
number.
The figure for all employees,after setting an all-time high
in April of $31.32 an hour,dropped to $31.29 an hour.

(11:47):
These pennies are.
You know you're going to bewell, those are just pennies.
No, when you're talking, youknow 320 million people you're
talking.
There's a lot of money at stakehere and every single
fluctuation in the industrymakes a huge difference.
That's why I tell drivers allthe time keep your ears open
when you're at the terminal,listen to what they got to say,

(12:09):
see what's happening, see if allthe offices are still, you know
, occupied with employees.
See if any offices are empty.
You know you go down the roadand let's say, you work local.
My brother works local.
Now he got off the big road,he's working local.
Now Are there a lot of placesnot shipping out as much as they
used to?
Are you being dispatched homeearlier?

(12:31):
Are you not working 12 hourdays, but working 10 hour days.
All that stuff makes a huge,significant difference because
it tells you where the market isgoing.
But, all in, I want to let youdrivers know please do your due
diligence to make sure that youkeep some money in your pocket.
Try not to spend as much.
I understand that cost ofliving has gone way up and we're

(12:54):
hoping that things will changehere soon and things will start
going back down and I think theywill next year but right now
we're going to hit a rough spotbetween July and the end of the
year and we need to take care ofeach other, and the best way to
do that is to communicate andlet each other know.
Cut down on the spending.
Relax with your job.
I know it may be redundant oryou hate the people you work

(13:16):
with, but at least you're stillbringing home a paycheck.
There are thousands andthousands of people out there
who've lost their job andtrucking already this year.
I don't want you to have tosuffer the same fate.
So take it easy, relax.
Try not to spend the companyinto oblivion.
If you have a situation whereyou can do things like that to a
company, try not to wash thetruck as much.

(13:38):
All this little stuff helps outa company and I'm not bragging
about the companies, but we area team.
're the driver, they're thecompany.
Everything you do to save themmoney saves them from having to
get rid of somebody else.
Could be your buddy, could be afriend, could be a relative,
could be you.
You know, nobody wants to hitthe highway without a job,
especially this day and age.

(13:58):
The housing market's startingto take a weird turn.
Everything's starting to getsuspicious and a little
dangerous.
So try your best to do yourbest to take care of what you've
got.
Relax, keep your mouth zipped.
Hopefully next year will bringus new tidings.
I hope you guys enjoyed thispodcast and I am here on Monday,

(14:19):
wednesday and Fridays just toprovide you guys with
information about trucking.
So you guys have a great day.
God bless, be safe and, asalways, keep it between the
lines.
Driver.

Speaker 1 (14:35):
Thank you for listening to Roland 18 Podcast.
Please visit my website atmediaiowacom or the podcast page
at Rollin18podcastcom.
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