Episode 23 — Exits, Psychedelics, and the Timing Game

In this deal-focused episode of Time, Fuel, and Money, Deborah, Karim, and Vassili unpack a billion-dollar psychedelic acquisition as a lens on how and when biotech companies are actually acquired.

Starting from major depressive disorder as a proving ground, the trio explores what really moves a program from “interesting” to “acquirable”: lean teams, credible data, and momentum that doesn’t stall. They debate the sweet spot for partnerships (IND/Phase 1 vs. Phase 2), why negotiations can stretch for a year or more, and how cap tables, burn, and “just one more dataset” can quietly kill an exit. Along the way, they wrestle with the bigger question: is this the end of biotech winter or just proof that quality clears the market?

We also reflect on adjacent opportunities, asking whether diseases like lupus — which disproportionately affect women — could align with the Gates Foundation’s new $2.5 billion women’s health commitment, creating a timely non-dilutive path for innovation in a field long underfunded.

🧠 Topics we explore

• The acquisition dance: when buyers really engage (and why)
• IND/Phase 1 as the “sweet spot” vs. pricey Phase 2 bets
• Momentum and milestones as a startup’s biggest risk
• NIH grants & non dilutive capital as real de-risking
• Running lean: what 15 people can achieve
• Psychedelics as mainstream medicine and the pipeline beyond MDD
• Fail early vs. push for more data protecting founders and cap tables

This isn’t a market cheerlead. It’s a pragmatic blueprint for founders weighing partnerships, next rounds, or an LOI, showing how to conserve fuel, respect time, and still build for an outcome.

🎧 Listen now on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts.