El Niño Will Likely Emerge this Year, but Will It Reach 'Super' Status?

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center says there's an 82% chance we'll see El Niño in the next few months, but it's unclear whether or not it'll be a "super El Niño." Veronica and Bret spoke with Weather Echo's Alex Tardy to see what we should be preparing for.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
We need to look at the long term forecasts.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
Yeah, we've been telling you as super el Nino is
likely to hit us, when and how hard is it going.

Speaker 3 (00:10):
To hit us?

Speaker 1 (00:10):
Joining us now on the Cocona News Live line is
Weather Echoes Alex Tardi and I want to start off
with an apology.

Speaker 3 (00:16):
Alex.

Speaker 1 (00:16):
We love you as a meteorologist, but we know how
hard it is to partict beyond seven days when it
comes to the weather forecast.

Speaker 4 (00:23):
Yeah, that's a good way to start it, because you're right,
when you start talking about a weather prediction one two
months or even six months or more, it's a little
bit like throwing darts. But we you know, we do
know that a el Nino is forming. We can see
it from space, we get measure it in the ocean

(00:44):
along the Equator, and.

Speaker 5 (00:46):
We also know that it's going to get.

Speaker 4 (00:48):
Stronger and and be potentially one of the strongest El
Nino events or warming.

Speaker 6 (00:53):
Of the Equator Pacific Ocean we've ever seen.

Speaker 2 (00:56):
I love the fact that you've described it as we
can see it from space.

Speaker 3 (01:00):
Yea, you know, because it's hard to argue with that.

Speaker 2 (01:04):
You know, what is the what is the chance that
it is actually going to make it into California.

Speaker 3 (01:12):
I mean, do we have a percentage?

Speaker 4 (01:15):
Yeah, so seeing it from space and you're right, it's
hard to argue it. So the easy part about al
Nino or the warming along the equator, which is normal,
but it's not normal for it to potentially be this
strong or this warm. That part of it is easy.

Speaker 6 (01:32):
It's easy to see it, it's easy to predict it.

Speaker 5 (01:35):
Now, the part.

Speaker 4 (01:35):
That's not easy is al Nino is not a storm,
and we tend to focus on that it could be
a storm it is a storm, or that it is
equal to rain. What it does is it changes our
jet stream, which brings a storm stays just a storm track,
which is what we need in the winter to get
our normal rainfall. But it really excites that normal storm track.

(01:57):
What we don't know and what's hard beyond a few
weeks is predicting where those storms will actually.

Speaker 6 (02:04):
Go and where they'll go, where.

Speaker 4 (02:07):
They'll produce successive rain versus just normal rain.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
Yeah, we're speaking with our favorite meteorologist, Alex Tardi. He
invented and created weather Echo online. You got to check
it out. It's really a great forecast tool.

Speaker 3 (02:22):
I do.

Speaker 1 (02:22):
I mean, I've covered al Nino's over the years of
the decades, I should say, actually, and you never know
if it's going to be a warm al Nino and
what have you. Are they normally associated with warm storms
and if so, what does that? How does that threaten
our snowpack here in California, which provides what a third
of our water supply here in California.

Speaker 5 (02:44):
Yeah, that's a great question.

Speaker 4 (02:45):
You know, with El Nino again, one component is that
there's too much focus on the storms themselves because El
Nino is not making more of them, it's just making
them more active, more more powerful in some Now, does
it make them more warmer? Typically not, because it's a
battle between the warm ocean and the cold air to

(03:07):
the north, and that's what creates your jet stream, your storm.

Speaker 6 (03:10):
Track, that's what brings us the rain. And what El
Nino does is it tends to.

Speaker 4 (03:15):
Be more focused, more energy.

Speaker 6 (03:18):
That's more focused on California.

Speaker 5 (03:20):
So it's not necessarily warmer storm.

Speaker 4 (03:22):
So don't think of al Nino necessarily as Pineapple Express
or a really warm atmospheric river. Just think of it
as a more excited, active storm track. If you're in
the path of that, kind of like the traffic in
San Diego right if you're on the wrong highway, you
are in thick, heavy traffic, And in Al Nino, it's

(03:45):
the same thing. If you get in the path of
that storm track, you can get a lot of wind,
a lot of rain.

Speaker 6 (03:51):
And major snow.

Speaker 5 (03:52):
So eighty two eighty.

Speaker 4 (03:53):
Three, nineteen eighty two eighty three one of the biggest
strongest Alnina is ever huge snowpack.

Speaker 3 (04:00):
This one could be even bigger than that one.

Speaker 4 (04:04):
In terms of how you measured along the equator and
the warmth of the water. This one potentially could be
the strongest we've seen. We've got projections now that are
showing it to be stronger than.

Speaker 6 (04:16):
Nineteen ninety seven, ninety eight, stronger than eighty two eighty.

Speaker 4 (04:18):
Three, and even the most recent El Nino twenty fifteen sixteen.
That's an important one because.

Speaker 5 (04:25):
That one was as strong as.

Speaker 6 (04:27):
All the ones we've seen. That was called Godzilla in
twenty fifteen sixteen.

Speaker 4 (04:32):
That one didn't result in a lot of rain in California,
excessive rain, but it did for Seattle. Seattle had one
of their wettest winters. So it's all about getting in
the right path, and that's the part we don't know, Like.

Speaker 6 (04:45):
When you mentioned beyond seven days, we don't know exactly
where that.

Speaker 4 (04:50):
Path is going to decide to hang out and bring
the most frequent storms.

Speaker 5 (04:54):
In twenty fifteen sixteen.

Speaker 4 (04:56):
It happened to be the Pacific Northwest, but in those
other big l it happened to be central and.

Speaker 6 (05:02):
Even southern California.

Speaker 4 (05:04):
But we know that it'll bring big surf because with
all these storms and all these powerful pieces of energy
going across the Pacific, that means more surf.

Speaker 2 (05:13):
All right, Well, I want to be on the freeway
with a light traffic, so hopefully that'll be.

Speaker 3 (05:18):
Alex. Thank you so much. Thanks Alex.

Speaker 6 (05:21):
Hell, you're welcome.

Speaker 3 (05:22):
Have a great day, all right.

Speaker 2 (05:23):
That is weather Echoes Alex TARTI, yeah, boy, yeah, I
check it out online.

Speaker 1 (05:27):
It's a great barometer for what's happening in our weather
forecast here in San Diego.