October 27, 2022 • 33 mins
Brian Noe previews the weekend in football with the sharpest minds in sports betting! Pickswise Lead Betting Analyst Jared Smith joins Brian to dive into the 3 big ranked-vs.-ranked matchups this weekend, highlighting Ohio State vs. Penn State. Sports Handicapper from KrackWins.com Bill Krackomberger joins Brian to preview some of the biggest NFL matchups of Week 8, with picks on game lines, totals, props, and much more!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Are you ready to college fans? Welcome to the biggest
tailgate party in the nation. Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff,
presented by Fat MGM, the gig of sports book. We're
setting you up with the information you need to watch
(00:21):
your team win. Let's go. We're here to break it
all down. Let's go, Let's go. This is Fox Sports
Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by Beat mg A. We're
live from your tail game. Here's Brian No. Everybody welcome in.
(00:42):
Let's fox some ball over here. We'll fox some college
football with Jared Smith from pixwise dot com. Also some
NFL action with Bill Krackenburger from prac Winds dot com.
New users download the bet MGM app today and use
code countdown for a special offer. That's co countdown in
the bet MGM app. I'm Brian No. Let's welcome in.
(01:04):
Jared Smith rump picks wise dot com previewing some of
the bigger games this week in college football, and a
simple question, Jared or your Nitney Lions gonna show up?
Because the last time we saw him in a big game,
they got whooped by Michigan. They do play Ohio State tough, typically.
So the Nickney Allions getting fifteen and a half at
(01:25):
home against Ohio State and the high powered C. J.
Stroud offense, what do you see in this one? But yeah,
and you know, the games between these two teams, while
Ohio States won them outright, the against the number, against
the spread records certainly favors Penn State James Franklin six
and two against the spread, and only one of those
(01:47):
eight games was played outside this scoring margin of fifteen
and a half sixteen. That being said, you know there's
a saying and gambling and you might have heard this before.
I'm sure you have. If the total is high, it's
I for a reason, right, If the spreads big, it's
big for a reason. And I think when you look
at these two teams, I am very concerned because it's
(02:07):
a strength for Ohio State their offense against what I
would say has been a weakness for Penn State this year.
And we saw what happened. You mentioned it when they
managed up, when they moved up in class. They faced
a Michigan offense that you know, maybe a little bit
different construction than this Ohio State offense, but the weapons,
(02:27):
the offensive line, the scheme, it was polished. You know,
they ran the ball effectively. J J. McCartney did what
he needed to do on the edge and it was
a blowout success rate on their plays there did The
Penn State defense did not force a three and out
in that game against Michigan, and I'll be honest, I
watched every snap of that game. It probably should have
(02:48):
been a much wider margin than it was and Pen
Sate lost by four scores and they were fortunate to
be in that game. So not great when you see
what Penn States defense able to accomplish when they move
up in class. The rest of the offenses they faced
this year have been really poor. Now on the other
side of the ball, compens State hang in the game offensively,
is the back door going to be open? That's you know,
(03:10):
typically how these big spreads get covered well. Jim Knowles,
I think has been the best higher of the off
season for anybody. The defensive coordinator of Ohio State comes
over from Oklahoma State. This Buckeyes defense allowing a hundred
and thirty three yards per game less than last year.
I mean, that is a massive improvement with a ton
of talent on this Ohio State defense, but the scheme
wasn't quite there. Now, I will say this, the schedule
(03:33):
of offenses that Ohio State is faced also poor. You
think about the Big Ten, not a whole lot of
world beater offenses there, the nonconference scheduled, Notre Dames, some
MAC teams. So again, we don't really know how good
Ohio State is, but I will say this, I would
put Penn State on the same level as Michigan State's offense.
And Ohio State played Michigan State on the road a
few weeks ago, and they were fantastic in that game.
(03:55):
They only gave up one true touchdown. They gave up
twenty points in the game. One was the defensive for
the other touchdown was late in garbage time. So for
fifty four minutes of that game, the Ohnes State defense
only gave up seven points and they forced a three
and out on fifty of possessions. So I think They'll
State defense really controlling tempo here, and I'm very concerned
with Penn State's defense holding up here. Yeah, I think
(04:17):
that's uh. It's sobering to say I put this Nickney
Lyons offense up on par with Michigan State's offense. I
don't want to be on par with Michigan States anything
this year. You know what I mean that they are
not a good football team. But I also think what
you said about the back door cover fifteen and a
half points that Penn State is catching here, think about this,
(04:37):
if they're down twenty two, the back door cover is
still open. You know. The thing is they've played them
so tough that they they might keep it within that
that point difference to have a chance to cover late.
It's just one of these things I still have nightmares
about Penn State against Michigan. Michigan is much more one
(04:59):
to mentional offensively then Ohio State is. Blake Corum is magnificent. J. J.
McCarthy is not. So Now when you face c J. Strout,
you jump up from J. J. McCarthy to c J. Stroud.
That is a man that's a quantum leap up in
quarterback quality. So I want to see Penn State at home.
(05:20):
That's a big difference than on the road against Michigan.
But I want to see if they can hang and
uh play better defense. Maybe this is a pride spot
also because they know they got worked against the Wolverine,
so obviously the last thing they want to do is
get worked by Ohio State as well. M yeah, I mean,
you know, I have to remove a little emotion here.
It's actually funny. I was at the game in twenty eighteen,
(05:43):
I believe when Sae Kwon Barkley returned the opening kick
for a touchdown. It was uh in Columbus, and you know,
Penncay had a big lead in that game and they
just couldn't quite get over the hump. They've been very
close to Ohio State at times, and of course they
beat him in twenty sixteen thanks to a block fuel
goal that return for a touchdown. So maybe one of
those fluke special teams plays keeps Penn State in the game.
(06:05):
But if you just line up eleven on eleven Penn
State's offense Ohio States defense, and then flip the flip
the units, you know, Penn State defense against the State offense,
I just don't see there being a lot of matchup
advantages for Penn State in this game. The Ohio State
offense is better and the Penn State defense is really struggling.
And then you flip it on the other side, the
Penn State offensive line especially struggling to get movement, and
(06:27):
the State defense is significantly better than last year. So
where's the edge for Penn State to kind of carve
out some of that space in this game? I don't
see it now. Again, things can happen, turnovers, fluke, special teams,
but I think eleven on eleven straight up, you know,
Ohio State light years ahead and then you're seeing the
line reflect that. By the way, did Penn State actually
(06:48):
black that kick or did it hit the skycam wire?
Just like the mac Jones interception is that I'm not
sure that Matt Jones pick hit the sky game. I
think there's I think it's one of those optical illusions, right,
might mean like when I eat three hot dogs during
my dinner, but it feels like four because of how
(07:09):
it looks coming out. I don't know, you know, there's
optical illusions all around us, Brian, we have to be
careful with those. Yeah, that might have been the case there.
I don't know, some cutting and splicing. They could get
a little uh, a little creative with the way they
piece that together. But anyway, let's move to another game.
Ranked versus ranked number nineteen Kentucky against number three Tennessee.
(07:30):
Tennessee A twelve and a half point favorite at home
against the Wildcats, and I would buckle up for points.
The total is sixty two and a half. Tennessee leads
the country and scorting offense fifty points per game. And
when they played last year a thousand and seventy three
yards combined, so a ton of yards last season. And
(07:53):
I could see a shootout this season as well. What
do you think about this, Jared? Yeah, Kentucky off the
by of course, Tennessee say badly. They barely got across
the finish line against U. T. Martin in terms of
the point spread last week. We know because we were
That was the shameus special the UT Martin Skyhawks against
Tennessee last week. I mean, listen, I think that was
(08:13):
basically a bye week for Tennessee, and you know Kentucky
actually off the bye week. I think the most fascinating
part of this game is schematically for Kentucky. They are
known as a ground and pound. I want to run
the football and establish the line of scrimmage type of team,
but they haven't done it very well this year. Chris
(08:34):
Rodriguez returning the last couple of weeks has helped, but
the offensive line is still outside the top sixty five
and line yards created opportunity, right, stuff, right, all those
metrics that you know create a power running offense. They're
also outside the top one and rushing efficiency, So they
are their identity is a running football team, but they
don't do it very well. Meanwhile, Tennessee's strength on defense
(08:58):
is stopping the run and their terror boll against the past.
They're actually one of the worst teams. You know, you
saw Bryce Young last week with limited weapons just there
two weeks ago. Excuse me, just absolutely slice and dice
this Tennessee secondary. So does Rick Scangarrello, the offensive coordinated
for Kentucky, does he go against tendency here? Does he say, Hey, listen,
everyone's expecting we're gonna run the ball, let's pass it
(09:20):
early to set up the run. Well, if that's the case,
I could see Kentucky's offense having a lot of success here.
And to me, we've talked about will Levis at some
point during the last month or so being the draft
pick that everyone hopes the prince that was promised in
this NFL draft. Is he going to be the first
quarterback selected? There's some skepticism there. Well, this is an
(09:41):
opportunity to silence the critics. You're on the road against
the top ten team and you are expected to just
ground and pound the ball into the line of scrimmage
a hundred times. Well, if Will Levis says, no, this
is my game, I could absolutely see Kentucky hanging around
here covering the spread. It's a double digit spread, but
a little bit concerned about his overall efficiency. Now, he's
(10:03):
been great against the Blitz this year. We know that
Ball's defensive coordinator, Tim Banks likes to bring the heat,
but I just I'm not sure if the matchup favors him,
because I don't think Kentucky's got the weapons really to
push the ball down the field. Now, they could get
very aggressive in that nature, and if they do, I
think they'll hang around. We all know Handinhooker on the
other side is fantastic. Cedric Tillman might return this week.
(10:24):
Jalen High. It's you know, even without Tillman, the valls
of a million weapons High it's one of the best
receivers in the country. You put Tillman back with High,
and you've got yourself a real problem there in the secondary.
So yeah, points could certainly be um a part of
this candycap if Kentucky breaks tendencies and decides to pass
to set up the run. Now I hear you on that.
You know what it reminds me of. Do you remember
(10:46):
when Jimmy Johnson was the head coach of the Miami
Dolphins and they he was just like, we gotta run it,
we gotta run the ball, we gotta run the ball,
and that's fine. They just couldn't do it very well.
And then at the end of the game it was like, Dan, know,
please try to go win it for us. I know
it's dated, but it just reminded me of what you're
talking about with Kentucky. It's one thing to have the
(11:07):
philosophy and the mindset and the approach of running the football,
but you gotta run it effectively, and if you aren't,
it's time for playing b baby. And you laid it
out perfectly. If there's ever a spot to lean on
a draft pick that might be a first rounder, and
Will Levis if not, he's gonna be Round two. He's
he's a hot prospect. This is the time for him
(11:29):
to dice up a poor secondary. So I'm curious if
that's what they'll do. And that's what their approach will
be that's the whole crux. So that's the game within
the game here. If Kentucky just wants Chris Rodriguez to
be the tone center, I think they're gonna struggle because,
let's be honest, last year they tried to do the
exact same thing against the really good I mean, it's
basically the same Tennessee offense they faced last year. But
(11:51):
last year they lost the game and it was at home,
and they tried to do the exact same strategy. Shorten
the game, give the ball to Rodriguez, pound mclock. We've
got this great offensive line. They're offensive line is better
last year than it was this year, and their metrics
running the ball were much better last year than this year.
So if it didn't work last year, I think it
would be foolish for Mark Stoops to employ that strategy again. Now.
(12:13):
To be honest with you, it might not matter if
they can't get pressure on Hendon Hooker and if he
does what he did against Alabama, because let's be honest,
I don't care how good Will Levis is. You're not
going to replicate the kind of offensive output that Alabama
did a couple of weeks ago on Rocky Top. That
was just one of those master class performances by a
quarterback that I think it is a top five pick,
or at least in that vicinity. I don't know if
(12:34):
Will Levis is that guy. He's gonna have a chance
to have his NFL moment this Saturday, though, that's for sure.
You know, I wanted to give you a cross country
hug this morning here, Jared as we record this. So
I'm in Tampa, Florida for the Thursday night game, gonna
see the Ravens in Tampa Bay and before this podcast.
I don't know if this is an accurate description, but
(12:56):
in my mind, you stood on the table and you
were like, I want to talk some Notre Dame fighting
Irish football here. I want to talk specifically about the
Golden Domers against Syracuse. A. Syracuse is a two and
a half point home favorite. Why were you so passionate?
And this might be just my mind of manufacturing this
(13:17):
didn't exactly take place, but why Notre Dame Syracuse? Why
is this game so hot on your radar? Here? Well,
I think this is from a sharp square perspective, this
game is giving me all the fields, so expect right,
like you know, and again, I have a friend who works,
you know, for one of the networks here in town,
Tim Murray. He likes to call line stinky. Certain lines stink,
(13:41):
And we've talked about it before. It's kind of when
one team you would expect to be the favorite, but
the other line, you know, the line opens is the
other you know, the other side, and you know the
line movements kind of working in a weird direction. Well,
this line, actually, Notre Dame actually opened as a favorite
in this game. And think about Syria, Accuse and how
well they've played and Notre Dame. Let's be honest, it's
(14:03):
been underwhelming at times, especially with this game being in
Syracuse at you know, whatever name they're calling the dome
these days. I think everyone expected Syracuse to be the favorite.
Notre Dame opened is a favorite. Well, quickly the sharp
money bought Syracuse to about three minus three, and then
we started to see the buy back on Notre Dame.
And this line, you know, as we record Thursday morning,
(14:26):
is hovering in the two and a half range. I
would imagine it closes somewhere around there, because there does
seem to be this battle, this push and pull between
the sharp money, which kind of favors Notre Dame and
the market which is kind of favoring Syracuse. And I
think we're gonna see some Syracuse love if this thing
continues to stay beneath three. If it touches three, Notre
(14:50):
Dame money will come right back in and probably knock
it right back down. So you see that tug of
war that shapes out. And any time you have smart
money that is on different sides of the market here
in this particular case, it intrigues me. And when I
look at Syracuse is defense. I mean, listen, this is
a This is an interesting stretch for Syracuse. I think
maybe the game against Clemson that might count as one
(15:12):
and a half losses, And we say this a lot
when you face Alabama. It's not that game, but the
next week also plays a toll because of just how
physical those games can be. And Syracuse, let's be honest,
not exactly known for their physicality. So I'm curious how
Syracuse comes out of this game physically. Can they stop
the run? And I don't know if you heard this,
(15:34):
but Shawn Tucker kind of sounding off on social media
after the game a little bit upset that he only
got five carries in the in the loss to Clemson,
and I think game script kind of dictated that maybe
they were trying to set something up, and you know,
the running game just wasn't there for Tucker. Well, let's
be honest, I don't think Syracuse really had much of
a chance to win that game. They were in it
(15:55):
because Clemson turned it over four times. But I you
know that that play on the goal line where you
know Dju was going in for a touchdown, it ends
up being the end their end zone on a fumble return.
So there was just some really flukey things that happened
in that game. And I'm not very high on on
Syracuse at all. And we you know, we dadd him
last week, and I think I'll fade him again this week.
If you're gonna give me three points with Notre Dame,
I got it for a minute. I got a little
(16:16):
nibble on Notre Dame plus three before it moved, And
maybe it pops back up again in the market this weekend.
Probably not, But to me, it's all about running the
football and Notre Dame able to run it. I think
with their offensive line, they're not explosive, but they're very consistent,
and I think they're gonna keep matriculating the ball down
the field against the Syracuse defense that plays this weird
three three five light box. Their defensive coordinator Tony White
(16:39):
likes to make these exotic run blitzes. Well, it didn'tork
last week. We'll Shipley out a hundred seventy two yards
and two touchdowns. I think Notre Dame can run the
football here, and that's gonna set up to play action
Withdrew Pine, who has been you know, bad for lack
of a better word, but they stole Michael Mayer and
they've got some dudes on the outside. I just it
feels like one of those spots where the markets telling
me Notre Dames the right side. Yeah. I like Notre
(16:59):
Dame in this match match up. They've been inconsistent obviously
this season. But I thought d j u u was
a Syracuse undercover double agent last week, Right, That was
as phony of a close loss as you can get.
It was just dj Ui was dj last week and
(17:21):
got replaced by Club Nick and we all know what happened.
But Syracuse was lucky to keep that game close. Dj
you fumbled inside syracuse Is five yard line. It got
brought back to the house for like ninety yards and
a touchdown that hardly ever happened. So I think Syracuse
over value if they haven't played anybody before the Clemson game,
(17:44):
and Notre Dame, even though they've been inconsistent, especially running
the football, syracuses rush defense is one of the worst
in the country. So I think if Notre Dame can
run the ball effectively, yeah, I think they should win
this game. Outright on the road, I'm getting through. I'm
getting points with the better with the better defense and
what I perceived to be the much better running game.
(18:04):
And to me, in what should be a lower scoring game,
you know where it's a total in like the in
like the mid fifties, somewhere in that range. Um and
a half. Yeah, the points are valuable in this game.
So obviously three huge. I don't think you're gonna see
a three, and if you do, you better run of
the window and bed it. I would still take two
(18:26):
and a half on a slightly less you know scale,
But I I do think. I do think Notre Dame
is gonna be able to run the ball here and
their offensive line, they have one of the better offensive
lines for a team that isn't playing well, and that
is intriguing to me. Again, this lightbox, they call it
the mob. That's what Tony White, uh, you know, refers
(18:47):
to his defensive scheme. And it again, when you're going
up against an offensive line that gets off the ball,
that has size, that has skill like Clemson does, it
just it doesn't fit. It's a bad game to stop
the run. And you know, styles make fights. If if
Clemson you know, was gonna throw the ball bunch of
times down the field last week, they probably wouldn't have
(19:09):
had as much success. But running the football, it was
left right and center for will Shipley. So I just
think that's Notre Dame strategy, and to me, it's a
strategy that is probably gonna work nice, I hope. So
I'm from South Bend, so go Irish, you know, say exactly.
I will not sugarcoat anything. So catch us on Saturday,
(19:30):
Fox Sports Radio count Down to Kickoff. Jared Smith from
picks wise dot Com, our guy Rich orn Berger Penn
stayed all American. He does a tremendous job on Brian
No will be with you three hours leading right up
to kick off, all across the country. So we'll just
use Eastern time to make it easy. Nine am until noon.
Catch us on fs are earn a fifty dollar bonus
(19:50):
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Pilots talks in NFL with our guy, Bill kracken Burger.
He's from crack Winds dot com. He's a sports handicapper
and he's jaded. He's a sports handicapper who's winning. He's
(20:12):
killing it this year betting NFL games. Yet he's still jaded.
Why are you jaded here, crack? Hey, uh yeah, I'm
still flill on my hand in the cookie jar. Though
I'm sure none of you guys noticed. I really didn't
tell you. I didn't tell Ryan, our producer. I flew
here like spontaneously to the East Coast. I'm here for
(20:33):
just thirty six hours. I'm doing a quick turnaround going
right back. Literally came in on the Red eye, leaving
five in the morning on Saturday morning. Um, I just
there's some there's some bets to be made here on
the East Coast and like, I can't even make these
bets at the border in Arizona if I go over
the border. So there's some betsding made on a lot
(20:55):
of future over unders. You know what it is, uh Brian,
Like everyone sees and lives in the moment. So there's
a lot of opportunities for going against the public sentiment here. Um,
they see teams and they want to bet. These sports
books now, like the bet MGM is, like these sports
books offer look aheadlines. They offer things like will a
(21:17):
team make a playoff? Will a team over underseason wins
still in progress, season wins. Well, people, the public is
very fickle. They only see good, positive things and like,
oh my god, of course the Giants are gonna make
the playoffs. Oh I gotta like free to one. I
don't care, they're hot, they're good. But you know, the
the under is probably the way to go there, taking
the under plus two thirty two forty that they won't
(21:39):
make the playoffs, taking in almost two and a half
to one. Of course, as you know, me and Jeff
Schwartz have been looking at our wounds every week. Betting
against that are going well, not bett against. We have
one bet a season win bet against the Giants, which
we're gonna lose. But however, I think now with ten
and a half being the uh, the the adjusted over under,
wow that's a big number. Um. But anyway, as far
(22:02):
as me being jaded, you know, even though I've had
a winning season, it's the parody. This year is so
different than any other year. Now. I always say, like
I say on our show, and he given someday and
anything can and will win. Well, just like this beegind
So you have Buffalo eleven and a half over Green Bay.
You have a couple of big big favorites Dallas nine
(22:24):
and a half solid over Chicago, Philadelphia ten and a
half over Pittsburgh. Four of these six big double digit
dogs have one outright already this year, just like this weekend.
I mean, anything can happen. There's not a lot a
lot of interest me on in me on any of
the sides. But I'll tell you one thing, I would
not be looking to lay any favorites, even though things
(22:46):
should return to the mean a little bit, and and
maybe somebody's double digit favorites historically that I've covered or
that I've won. Just outright, Um, I wouldn't be looking
to play these. I've been lucky. Actually played a couple
of Tampa Bay Gay games. Man. I think I stole
some money earlier in the season because the money lines
weren't relative with the spread line. I think I got
(23:07):
pretty lucky because Tampa Bay, just like Green Bay, has
shown us this year that they really were frauds. And
maybe it's a strong word, um, And they both still
can come around and both be in a playoff, some
of them if they get any deeper or anything. But
it's one of those years. Man. I'm looking to play totals.
I'm looking to pet some overs. Um. You know, these
(23:28):
totals this year are approaching on the unders, and I
think the bookmakers finally adjusted enough where the overs have
to come into play. But then again, uh, we we
talked pre break before the show. There's so many games. Washington,
Indie Open forty one and a half, thirty nine and
a half, Giants open forty six and a half, down,
(23:49):
the forty four, Tennessee Houston open forty one and a half,
Town the forty get some shops, New England Jets a
full point down. I can go online. There's that There's
a lot of games that really took some under money here,
and uh, I think we're gonna we gotta return to
the met here a little bit. Meanwhile, the books are
cleaning up. The books are killing it, beating the public.
Whenever these big dogs win, the books just clean up.
(24:12):
So I don't want to hear it when I start
whacking them around in public. Here, Well, let's look at
one of the totals that you like. Rada's against the Saints.
The total right now at bet MGM forty nine and
a half. What are you thinking in this one? Here, crack,
I'm looking the first half again. Uh, as we see
the trend continue year after year, it's a market that
(24:34):
no one really looks at the first half totals. Well,
I like the bet overs. If I'm betting overs in
the first in the game, I bet overs first half
even more. Um, I think that they go all out
first half. It's a pure number. It's not like if
Vegas is up by double digits in the fourth quarter,
they're gonna be running the ball and that therefore you
(24:55):
know that you may not get that carbage touchdown. Even
the other way the let your game go over here, So, um,
looking at the over in the first half of them
Las Vegas, New Orleans, thinking that maybe New Orleans is
gonna let up the scoreboard here. Uh, this is a
this is a pretty good bet. A couple of different
syndicate groups agreeing when we opened up forty seven and
a half up most of the major books. Yeah, some
(25:19):
of these double digit favorites haven't fared too well this year. Track,
so we get a couple of them this week. I'll
throw two of them at you. So, Buffalo eleven and
a half point favorites against the Packers, the Eagles undefeated
ten and a half point favorites hosting the Steelers. Which dog?
(25:41):
If you had to play one, do you like better?
Do you like Pittsburgh catching ten and a half or
do you like green Bay catching eleven and a half? Boy?
That's that's that's actually a tough one because I actually
would lean to both of them. But if I had
to force myself to be one over the other, I
think we would bet Pittsburgh. I think so Adelphia is
(26:01):
uh is due for a little bit of a letdown.
I mean their home, Uh, Pittsburgh is also until in
Pennsylvania we get some Steeler fans that are brave enough
to you know, go into Philadelphia wearing a Pittsburgh uniform
or Pittsburgh hat um or jersey. So but uh, I
would probably lean to Pittsburgh on this one. It opened,
(26:23):
the level is ten and a half, whereas Buffalo game
open ten and a half and eleven and eleven and
a half. There's some uh we would have some sharper
money on Buffalo this prime time game. But like I said,
you guys all noticed from this season anything can happen
in the NFL. How about this too, if you look
at the Jets and the Giants crack. We see their records, right,
(26:46):
Jets are five and two, Giants are six and one.
But if you look at the the lines this week
for their games. Look at the Jets. The Jets are
two and a half point home underdogs against the Patriots,
and we all know their quarterback questions, who's gonning to play?
Who's gonna do what? They just got she lacked by
the Bears. Yet the Jets are home underdogs, and you
(27:08):
look at the Giants, they're a standard three point underdog
against Seattle. What do you think about what the market
is saying, what the books are saying, Vegas is saying
about the Jets and the Giants because they couldn't scream
any louder. We're not convinced either of these teams are
the real deal. I'm not convinced either. Uh and and
(27:28):
the bookmaker has set the lines that they're not convinced. Uh.
You know, New England and the Jets historically have had
some really good matchups points spread wise. The pre the
pre look aheadline of this was like seven points. It's
two and a half. Two. We don't know what's going
on in New England too, that they just don't know
who they're starting. Quarterback is over, there is happy is
(27:52):
it back? No one knows anything here, so it's uh,
it's interesting situation here. This is that their home dog,
and this is situation. It's a very low total. This
is one of those games if I'm looking to take
the Jets, I'm looking to buy a the three this
this this, this game can easily be decided by a
field goal and you don't want to get caught short
and lose by half a point. I would lean to
(28:14):
the Jets probably in this situation plus three the Giants game,
Like I said, I'm looking about them onto for season wins.
So um, it's the Giants having a much better record.
It looks like a better team on paper even but um,
they're not gonna do any respect from the linemaker. I'll
ask you one more game the Niners in the Rams,
(28:36):
catch my attention. The Rams a home underdog plus a
point and a half. Right now on bed MGM. You
saw Christian McCaffrey make his debut last week, limited action
as expected, but both his rushing prop and his receiving
prop went over. Might get a much bigger role this
week against the Rams. What are your impressions on either
(28:56):
Christian McCaffrey, what kind of game he might have, and
the way the game mighty out between the Niners and
the Rams. And this is another one of those look
aheadlines that's way off. Rams are minus three on the
look at headline, three and a half on one of
the markets, and now here you have one of half.
Its some about five point move. The Rams have shown
that they're just not the Ram Now you listen, they
(29:17):
weren't that great last year. Last year was I mean
they were? I know they won a Super Bowl I
I either team could have won that game. Um, they're
just showing that they're not the super Bowl team. Uh,
this year either and uh again the parody. We talked
about it earlier. Anything can happen the way this game
will play out. Well, I'll tell you, if anything, I
would have to lean san Fran in this game, even
(29:40):
though it's it is a pretty big move from the
look aheadline. I'm just really down on the Rams this year,
and and even though they started out really bad and
then then they look a little bit better since then.
But I'm looking for san Fran and I'm looking for
baby McCaffrey to be uh, you know, one of the
star on that obviously on that team, and this is
(30:02):
this is a really good move for him, really good
move for the team. Now they just have to play
like the contenders that they're supposed to be. So we'll
see what happens. You know, before we go, crack, I
just wanted to pick your brain a little bit what
year processes for player props because there are a lot
of people that just think, oh, this guy's going over.
Oh this quarterback he's gonna go over his passing yardage.
(30:24):
Oh this running back he's gonna go over his running
total right there. What is your process to determine whether
you're looking over or under on a prop that well,
you know, uh, this year is an unusual year. I'm
like a seventy playing on unders on player props this year.
I'm literally more like not fifty fifty, but I am
(30:46):
playing more unders. But um, this year a lot of
these player props were coming up with a number that
the book that you know, we we actually put every
single all our stuff as computers driven, as analytical driven,
are our numbers that I have my team, I have
four guys that I work with, and this year is
a very strange here. Like I said, but we're killing it.
We're killing the the props this year. Um. I have
(31:09):
to tell you, maybe the totals because the totals have
been lower and lower. Um, I'm thinking that correlates with
the lines on the player props being lower and lower.
And we're we're finding situations where the individual player props
have dropped down like yardage ten to twelve of what
(31:30):
it did what they did last year, but yet there's
still achieving those same numbers. So I don't want to
give away too much stuff and have someone to start
reverse engineering what I'm saying. But um, and and already
my my, my, my prop specialist to who I work
with every week of prior here saying what are you
doing here? But anyway that that that's just one thing
that I think is happening here. So, um, what do
(31:52):
I think? I think I'll start giving out some more
unders though as the season goes on, which I've been
successful for two decades plus bettings as they've been up,
the player props be coming up. This is only a
super Bowl thing. Remember years ago, Literally it was only
on a super Bowl on the Super Bowl that if
became playoffs the super Bowl. Now it's every single game
with all these new sports books that entered the market.
(32:13):
So the public loves the bed overs on things, and
I expect that eventually to come down and we'll start
betting some unders and uh going with the flow like
the old days. Interesting, man, Hey, be sure to check
out the new look and features in the bed MGM app.
It's fast and easy access to the sports you love,
whether it's live betting, the Daily Lions boost, or the
(32:34):
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Radio three hours on Sunday leading up to kick off.
So actually this week we've got Denver at Jacksonville. We've
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(32:55):
Listen to us. We'll get you all set for the
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(00:21):
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(00:42):
Let's fox some ball over here. We'll fox some college
football with Jared Smith from pixwise dot com. Also some
NFL action with Bill Krackenburger from prac Winds dot com.
New users download the bet MGM app today and use
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the bet MGM app. I'm Brian No. Let's welcome in.
(01:04):
Jared Smith rump picks wise dot com previewing some of
the bigger games this week in college football, and a
simple question, Jared or your Nitney Lions gonna show up?
Because the last time we saw him in a big game,
they got whooped by Michigan. They do play Ohio State tough, typically.
So the Nickney Allions getting fifteen and a half at
(01:25):
home against Ohio State and the high powered C. J.
Stroud offense, what do you see in this one? But yeah,
and you know, the games between these two teams, while
Ohio States won them outright, the against the number, against
the spread records certainly favors Penn State James Franklin six
and two against the spread, and only one of those
(01:47):
eight games was played outside this scoring margin of fifteen
and a half sixteen. That being said, you know there's
a saying and gambling and you might have heard this before.
I'm sure you have. If the total is high, it's
I for a reason, right, If the spreads big, it's
big for a reason. And I think when you look
at these two teams, I am very concerned because it's
(02:07):
a strength for Ohio State their offense against what I
would say has been a weakness for Penn State this year.
And we saw what happened. You mentioned it when they
managed up, when they moved up in class. They faced
a Michigan offense that you know, maybe a little bit
different construction than this Ohio State offense, but the weapons,
(02:27):
the offensive line, the scheme, it was polished. You know,
they ran the ball effectively. J J. McCartney did what
he needed to do on the edge and it was
a blowout success rate on their plays there did The
Penn State defense did not force a three and out
in that game against Michigan, and I'll be honest, I
watched every snap of that game. It probably should have
(02:48):
been a much wider margin than it was and Pen
Sate lost by four scores and they were fortunate to
be in that game. So not great when you see
what Penn States defense able to accomplish when they move
up in class. The rest of the offenses they faced
this year have been really poor. Now on the other
side of the ball, compens State hang in the game offensively,
is the back door going to be open? That's you know,
(03:10):
typically how these big spreads get covered well. Jim Knowles,
I think has been the best higher of the off
season for anybody. The defensive coordinator of Ohio State comes
over from Oklahoma State. This Buckeyes defense allowing a hundred
and thirty three yards per game less than last year.
I mean, that is a massive improvement with a ton
of talent on this Ohio State defense, but the scheme
wasn't quite there. Now, I will say this, the schedule
(03:33):
of offenses that Ohio State is faced also poor. You
think about the Big Ten, not a whole lot of
world beater offenses there, the nonconference scheduled, Notre Dames, some
MAC teams. So again, we don't really know how good
Ohio State is, but I will say this, I would
put Penn State on the same level as Michigan State's offense.
And Ohio State played Michigan State on the road a
few weeks ago, and they were fantastic in that game.
(03:55):
They only gave up one true touchdown. They gave up
twenty points in the game. One was the defensive for
the other touchdown was late in garbage time. So for
fifty four minutes of that game, the Ohnes State defense
only gave up seven points and they forced a three
and out on fifty of possessions. So I think They'll
State defense really controlling tempo here, and I'm very concerned
with Penn State's defense holding up here. Yeah, I think
(04:17):
that's uh. It's sobering to say I put this Nickney
Lyons offense up on par with Michigan State's offense. I
don't want to be on par with Michigan States anything
this year. You know what I mean that they are
not a good football team. But I also think what
you said about the back door cover fifteen and a
half points that Penn State is catching here, think about this,
(04:37):
if they're down twenty two, the back door cover is
still open. You know. The thing is they've played them
so tough that they they might keep it within that
that point difference to have a chance to cover late.
It's just one of these things I still have nightmares
about Penn State against Michigan. Michigan is much more one
(04:59):
to mentional offensively then Ohio State is. Blake Corum is magnificent. J. J.
McCarthy is not. So Now when you face c J. Strout,
you jump up from J. J. McCarthy to c J. Stroud.
That is a man that's a quantum leap up in
quarterback quality. So I want to see Penn State at home.
(05:20):
That's a big difference than on the road against Michigan.
But I want to see if they can hang and
uh play better defense. Maybe this is a pride spot
also because they know they got worked against the Wolverine,
so obviously the last thing they want to do is
get worked by Ohio State as well. M yeah, I mean,
you know, I have to remove a little emotion here.
It's actually funny. I was at the game in twenty eighteen,
(05:43):
I believe when Sae Kwon Barkley returned the opening kick
for a touchdown. It was uh in Columbus, and you know,
Penncay had a big lead in that game and they
just couldn't quite get over the hump. They've been very
close to Ohio State at times, and of course they
beat him in twenty sixteen thanks to a block fuel
goal that return for a touchdown. So maybe one of
those fluke special teams plays keeps Penn State in the game.
(06:05):
But if you just line up eleven on eleven Penn
State's offense Ohio States defense, and then flip the flip
the units, you know, Penn State defense against the State offense,
I just don't see there being a lot of matchup
advantages for Penn State in this game. The Ohio State
offense is better and the Penn State defense is really struggling.
And then you flip it on the other side, the
Penn State offensive line especially struggling to get movement, and
(06:27):
the State defense is significantly better than last year. So
where's the edge for Penn State to kind of carve
out some of that space in this game? I don't
see it now. Again, things can happen, turnovers, fluke, special teams,
but I think eleven on eleven straight up, you know,
Ohio State light years ahead and then you're seeing the
line reflect that. By the way, did Penn State actually
(06:48):
black that kick or did it hit the skycam wire?
Just like the mac Jones interception is that I'm not
sure that Matt Jones pick hit the sky game. I
think there's I think it's one of those optical illusions, right,
might mean like when I eat three hot dogs during
my dinner, but it feels like four because of how
(07:09):
it looks coming out. I don't know, you know, there's
optical illusions all around us, Brian, we have to be
careful with those. Yeah, that might have been the case there.
I don't know, some cutting and splicing. They could get
a little uh, a little creative with the way they
piece that together. But anyway, let's move to another game.
Ranked versus ranked number nineteen Kentucky against number three Tennessee.
(07:30):
Tennessee A twelve and a half point favorite at home
against the Wildcats, and I would buckle up for points.
The total is sixty two and a half. Tennessee leads
the country and scorting offense fifty points per game. And
when they played last year a thousand and seventy three
yards combined, so a ton of yards last season. And
(07:53):
I could see a shootout this season as well. What
do you think about this, Jared? Yeah, Kentucky off the
by of course, Tennessee say badly. They barely got across
the finish line against U. T. Martin in terms of
the point spread last week. We know because we were
That was the shameus special the UT Martin Skyhawks against
Tennessee last week. I mean, listen, I think that was
(08:13):
basically a bye week for Tennessee, and you know Kentucky
actually off the bye week. I think the most fascinating
part of this game is schematically for Kentucky. They are
known as a ground and pound. I want to run
the football and establish the line of scrimmage type of team,
but they haven't done it very well this year. Chris
(08:34):
Rodriguez returning the last couple of weeks has helped, but
the offensive line is still outside the top sixty five
and line yards created opportunity, right, stuff, right, all those
metrics that you know create a power running offense. They're
also outside the top one and rushing efficiency, So they
are their identity is a running football team, but they
don't do it very well. Meanwhile, Tennessee's strength on defense
(08:58):
is stopping the run and their terror boll against the past.
They're actually one of the worst teams. You know, you
saw Bryce Young last week with limited weapons just there
two weeks ago. Excuse me, just absolutely slice and dice
this Tennessee secondary. So does Rick Scangarrello, the offensive coordinated
for Kentucky, does he go against tendency here? Does he say, Hey, listen,
everyone's expecting we're gonna run the ball, let's pass it
(09:20):
early to set up the run. Well, if that's the case,
I could see Kentucky's offense having a lot of success here.
And to me, we've talked about will Levis at some
point during the last month or so being the draft
pick that everyone hopes the prince that was promised in
this NFL draft. Is he going to be the first
quarterback selected? There's some skepticism there. Well, this is an
(09:41):
opportunity to silence the critics. You're on the road against
the top ten team and you are expected to just
ground and pound the ball into the line of scrimmage
a hundred times. Well, if Will Levis says, no, this
is my game, I could absolutely see Kentucky hanging around
here covering the spread. It's a double digit spread, but
a little bit concerned about his overall efficiency. Now, he's
(10:03):
been great against the Blitz this year. We know that
Ball's defensive coordinator, Tim Banks likes to bring the heat,
but I just I'm not sure if the matchup favors him,
because I don't think Kentucky's got the weapons really to
push the ball down the field. Now, they could get
very aggressive in that nature, and if they do, I
think they'll hang around. We all know Handinhooker on the
other side is fantastic. Cedric Tillman might return this week.
(10:24):
Jalen High. It's you know, even without Tillman, the valls
of a million weapons High it's one of the best
receivers in the country. You put Tillman back with High,
and you've got yourself a real problem there in the secondary.
So yeah, points could certainly be um a part of
this candycap if Kentucky breaks tendencies and decides to pass
to set up the run. Now I hear you on that.
You know what it reminds me of. Do you remember
(10:46):
when Jimmy Johnson was the head coach of the Miami
Dolphins and they he was just like, we gotta run it,
we gotta run the ball, we gotta run the ball,
and that's fine. They just couldn't do it very well.
And then at the end of the game it was like, Dan, know,
please try to go win it for us. I know
it's dated, but it just reminded me of what you're
talking about with Kentucky. It's one thing to have the
(11:07):
philosophy and the mindset and the approach of running the football,
but you gotta run it effectively, and if you aren't,
it's time for playing b baby. And you laid it
out perfectly. If there's ever a spot to lean on
a draft pick that might be a first rounder, and
Will Levis if not, he's gonna be Round two. He's
he's a hot prospect. This is the time for him
(11:29):
to dice up a poor secondary. So I'm curious if
that's what they'll do. And that's what their approach will
be that's the whole crux. So that's the game within
the game here. If Kentucky just wants Chris Rodriguez to
be the tone center, I think they're gonna struggle because,
let's be honest, last year they tried to do the
exact same thing against the really good I mean, it's
basically the same Tennessee offense they faced last year. But
(11:51):
last year they lost the game and it was at home,
and they tried to do the exact same strategy. Shorten
the game, give the ball to Rodriguez, pound mclock. We've
got this great offensive line. They're offensive line is better
last year than it was this year, and their metrics
running the ball were much better last year than this year.
So if it didn't work last year, I think it
would be foolish for Mark Stoops to employ that strategy again. Now.
(12:13):
To be honest with you, it might not matter if
they can't get pressure on Hendon Hooker and if he
does what he did against Alabama, because let's be honest,
I don't care how good Will Levis is. You're not
going to replicate the kind of offensive output that Alabama
did a couple of weeks ago on Rocky Top. That
was just one of those master class performances by a
quarterback that I think it is a top five pick,
or at least in that vicinity. I don't know if
(12:34):
Will Levis is that guy. He's gonna have a chance
to have his NFL moment this Saturday, though, that's for sure.
You know, I wanted to give you a cross country
hug this morning here, Jared as we record this. So
I'm in Tampa, Florida for the Thursday night game, gonna
see the Ravens in Tampa Bay and before this podcast.
I don't know if this is an accurate description, but
(12:56):
in my mind, you stood on the table and you
were like, I want to talk some Notre Dame fighting
Irish football here. I want to talk specifically about the
Golden Domers against Syracuse. A. Syracuse is a two and
a half point home favorite. Why were you so passionate?
And this might be just my mind of manufacturing this
(13:17):
didn't exactly take place, but why Notre Dame Syracuse? Why
is this game so hot on your radar? Here? Well,
I think this is from a sharp square perspective, this
game is giving me all the fields, so expect right,
like you know, and again, I have a friend who works,
you know, for one of the networks here in town,
Tim Murray. He likes to call line stinky. Certain lines stink,
(13:41):
And we've talked about it before. It's kind of when
one team you would expect to be the favorite, but
the other line, you know, the line opens is the
other you know, the other side, and you know the
line movements kind of working in a weird direction. Well,
this line, actually, Notre Dame actually opened as a favorite
in this game. And think about Syria, Accuse and how
well they've played and Notre Dame. Let's be honest, it's
(14:03):
been underwhelming at times, especially with this game being in
Syracuse at you know, whatever name they're calling the dome
these days. I think everyone expected Syracuse to be the favorite.
Notre Dame opened is a favorite. Well, quickly the sharp
money bought Syracuse to about three minus three, and then
we started to see the buy back on Notre Dame.
And this line, you know, as we record Thursday morning,
(14:26):
is hovering in the two and a half range. I
would imagine it closes somewhere around there, because there does
seem to be this battle, this push and pull between
the sharp money, which kind of favors Notre Dame and
the market which is kind of favoring Syracuse. And I
think we're gonna see some Syracuse love if this thing
continues to stay beneath three. If it touches three, Notre
(14:50):
Dame money will come right back in and probably knock
it right back down. So you see that tug of
war that shapes out. And any time you have smart
money that is on different sides of the market here
in this particular case, it intrigues me. And when I
look at Syracuse is defense. I mean, listen, this is
a This is an interesting stretch for Syracuse. I think
maybe the game against Clemson that might count as one
(15:12):
and a half losses, And we say this a lot
when you face Alabama. It's not that game, but the
next week also plays a toll because of just how
physical those games can be. And Syracuse, let's be honest,
not exactly known for their physicality. So I'm curious how
Syracuse comes out of this game physically. Can they stop
the run? And I don't know if you heard this,
(15:34):
but Shawn Tucker kind of sounding off on social media
after the game a little bit upset that he only
got five carries in the in the loss to Clemson,
and I think game script kind of dictated that maybe
they were trying to set something up, and you know,
the running game just wasn't there for Tucker. Well, let's
be honest, I don't think Syracuse really had much of
a chance to win that game. They were in it
(15:55):
because Clemson turned it over four times. But I you
know that that play on the goal line where you
know Dju was going in for a touchdown, it ends
up being the end their end zone on a fumble return.
So there was just some really flukey things that happened
in that game. And I'm not very high on on
Syracuse at all. And we you know, we dadd him
last week, and I think I'll fade him again this week.
If you're gonna give me three points with Notre Dame,
I got it for a minute. I got a little
(16:16):
nibble on Notre Dame plus three before it moved, And
maybe it pops back up again in the market this weekend.
Probably not, But to me, it's all about running the
football and Notre Dame able to run it. I think
with their offensive line, they're not explosive, but they're very consistent,
and I think they're gonna keep matriculating the ball down
the field against the Syracuse defense that plays this weird
three three five light box. Their defensive coordinator Tony White
(16:39):
likes to make these exotic run blitzes. Well, it didn'tork
last week. We'll Shipley out a hundred seventy two yards
and two touchdowns. I think Notre Dame can run the
football here, and that's gonna set up to play action
Withdrew Pine, who has been you know, bad for lack
of a better word, but they stole Michael Mayer and
they've got some dudes on the outside. I just it
feels like one of those spots where the markets telling
me Notre Dames the right side. Yeah. I like Notre
(16:59):
Dame in this match match up. They've been inconsistent obviously
this season. But I thought d j u u was
a Syracuse undercover double agent last week, Right, That was
as phony of a close loss as you can get.
It was just dj Ui was dj last week and
(17:21):
got replaced by Club Nick and we all know what happened.
But Syracuse was lucky to keep that game close. Dj
you fumbled inside syracuse Is five yard line. It got
brought back to the house for like ninety yards and
a touchdown that hardly ever happened. So I think Syracuse
over value if they haven't played anybody before the Clemson game,
(17:44):
and Notre Dame, even though they've been inconsistent, especially running
the football, syracuses rush defense is one of the worst
in the country. So I think if Notre Dame can
run the ball effectively, yeah, I think they should win
this game. Outright on the road, I'm getting through. I'm
getting points with the better with the better defense and
what I perceived to be the much better running game.
(18:04):
And to me, in what should be a lower scoring game,
you know where it's a total in like the in
like the mid fifties, somewhere in that range. Um and
a half. Yeah, the points are valuable in this game.
So obviously three huge. I don't think you're gonna see
a three, and if you do, you better run of
the window and bed it. I would still take two
(18:26):
and a half on a slightly less you know scale,
But I I do think. I do think Notre Dame
is gonna be able to run the ball here and
their offensive line, they have one of the better offensive
lines for a team that isn't playing well, and that
is intriguing to me. Again, this lightbox, they call it
the mob. That's what Tony White, uh, you know, refers
(18:47):
to his defensive scheme. And it again, when you're going
up against an offensive line that gets off the ball,
that has size, that has skill like Clemson does, it
just it doesn't fit. It's a bad game to stop
the run. And you know, styles make fights. If if
Clemson you know, was gonna throw the ball bunch of
times down the field last week, they probably wouldn't have
(19:09):
had as much success. But running the football, it was
left right and center for will Shipley. So I just
think that's Notre Dame strategy, and to me, it's a
strategy that is probably gonna work nice, I hope. So
I'm from South Bend, so go Irish, you know, say exactly.
I will not sugarcoat anything. So catch us on Saturday,
(19:30):
Fox Sports Radio count Down to Kickoff. Jared Smith from
picks wise dot Com, our guy Rich orn Berger Penn
stayed all American. He does a tremendous job on Brian
No will be with you three hours leading right up
to kick off, all across the country. So we'll just
use Eastern time to make it easy. Nine am until noon.
Catch us on fs are earn a fifty dollar bonus
(19:50):
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Pilots talks in NFL with our guy, Bill kracken Burger.
He's from crack Winds dot com. He's a sports handicapper
and he's jaded. He's a sports handicapper who's winning. He's
(20:12):
killing it this year betting NFL games. Yet he's still jaded.
Why are you jaded here, crack? Hey, uh yeah, I'm
still flill on my hand in the cookie jar. Though
I'm sure none of you guys noticed. I really didn't
tell you. I didn't tell Ryan, our producer. I flew
here like spontaneously to the East Coast. I'm here for
(20:33):
just thirty six hours. I'm doing a quick turnaround going
right back. Literally came in on the Red eye, leaving
five in the morning on Saturday morning. Um, I just
there's some there's some bets to be made here on
the East Coast and like, I can't even make these
bets at the border in Arizona if I go over
the border. So there's some betsding made on a lot
(20:55):
of future over unders. You know what it is, uh Brian,
Like everyone sees and lives in the moment. So there's
a lot of opportunities for going against the public sentiment here. Um,
they see teams and they want to bet. These sports
books now, like the bet MGM is, like these sports
books offer look aheadlines. They offer things like will a
(21:17):
team make a playoff? Will a team over underseason wins
still in progress, season wins. Well, people, the public is
very fickle. They only see good, positive things and like,
oh my god, of course the Giants are gonna make
the playoffs. Oh I gotta like free to one. I
don't care, they're hot, they're good. But you know, the
the under is probably the way to go there, taking
the under plus two thirty two forty that they won't
(21:39):
make the playoffs, taking in almost two and a half
to one. Of course, as you know, me and Jeff
Schwartz have been looking at our wounds every week. Betting
against that are going well, not bett against. We have
one bet a season win bet against the Giants, which
we're gonna lose. But however, I think now with ten
and a half being the uh, the the adjusted over under,
wow that's a big number. Um. But anyway, as far
(22:02):
as me being jaded, you know, even though I've had
a winning season, it's the parody. This year is so
different than any other year. Now. I always say, like
I say on our show, and he given someday and
anything can and will win. Well, just like this beegind
So you have Buffalo eleven and a half over Green Bay.
You have a couple of big big favorites Dallas nine
(22:24):
and a half solid over Chicago, Philadelphia ten and a
half over Pittsburgh. Four of these six big double digit
dogs have one outright already this year, just like this weekend.
I mean, anything can happen. There's not a lot a
lot of interest me on in me on any of
the sides. But I'll tell you one thing, I would
not be looking to lay any favorites, even though things
(22:46):
should return to the mean a little bit, and and
maybe somebody's double digit favorites historically that I've covered or
that I've won. Just outright, Um, I wouldn't be looking
to play these. I've been lucky. Actually played a couple
of Tampa Bay Gay games. Man. I think I stole
some money earlier in the season because the money lines
weren't relative with the spread line. I think I got
(23:07):
pretty lucky because Tampa Bay, just like Green Bay, has
shown us this year that they really were frauds. And
maybe it's a strong word, um, And they both still
can come around and both be in a playoff, some
of them if they get any deeper or anything. But
it's one of those years. Man. I'm looking to play totals.
I'm looking to pet some overs. Um. You know, these
(23:28):
totals this year are approaching on the unders, and I
think the bookmakers finally adjusted enough where the overs have
to come into play. But then again, uh, we we
talked pre break before the show. There's so many games. Washington,
Indie Open forty one and a half, thirty nine and
a half, Giants open forty six and a half, down,
(23:49):
the forty four, Tennessee Houston open forty one and a half,
Town the forty get some shops, New England Jets a
full point down. I can go online. There's that There's
a lot of games that really took some under money here,
and uh, I think we're gonna we gotta return to
the met here a little bit. Meanwhile, the books are
cleaning up. The books are killing it, beating the public.
Whenever these big dogs win, the books just clean up.
(24:12):
So I don't want to hear it when I start
whacking them around in public. Here, Well, let's look at
one of the totals that you like. Rada's against the Saints.
The total right now at bet MGM forty nine and
a half. What are you thinking in this one? Here, crack,
I'm looking the first half again. Uh, as we see
the trend continue year after year, it's a market that
(24:34):
no one really looks at the first half totals. Well,
I like the bet overs. If I'm betting overs in
the first in the game, I bet overs first half
even more. Um, I think that they go all out
first half. It's a pure number. It's not like if
Vegas is up by double digits in the fourth quarter,
they're gonna be running the ball and that therefore you
(24:55):
know that you may not get that carbage touchdown. Even
the other way the let your game go over here, So, um,
looking at the over in the first half of them
Las Vegas, New Orleans, thinking that maybe New Orleans is
gonna let up the scoreboard here. Uh, this is a
this is a pretty good bet. A couple of different
syndicate groups agreeing when we opened up forty seven and
a half up most of the major books. Yeah, some
(25:19):
of these double digit favorites haven't fared too well this year. Track,
so we get a couple of them this week. I'll
throw two of them at you. So, Buffalo eleven and
a half point favorites against the Packers, the Eagles undefeated
ten and a half point favorites hosting the Steelers. Which dog?
(25:41):
If you had to play one, do you like better?
Do you like Pittsburgh catching ten and a half or
do you like green Bay catching eleven and a half? Boy?
That's that's that's actually a tough one because I actually
would lean to both of them. But if I had
to force myself to be one over the other, I
think we would bet Pittsburgh. I think so Adelphia is
(26:01):
uh is due for a little bit of a letdown.
I mean their home, Uh, Pittsburgh is also until in
Pennsylvania we get some Steeler fans that are brave enough
to you know, go into Philadelphia wearing a Pittsburgh uniform
or Pittsburgh hat um or jersey. So but uh, I
would probably lean to Pittsburgh on this one. It opened,
(26:23):
the level is ten and a half, whereas Buffalo game
open ten and a half and eleven and eleven and
a half. There's some uh we would have some sharper
money on Buffalo this prime time game. But like I said,
you guys all noticed from this season anything can happen
in the NFL. How about this too, if you look
at the Jets and the Giants crack. We see their records, right,
(26:46):
Jets are five and two, Giants are six and one.
But if you look at the the lines this week
for their games. Look at the Jets. The Jets are
two and a half point home underdogs against the Patriots,
and we all know their quarterback questions, who's gonning to play?
Who's gonna do what? They just got she lacked by
the Bears. Yet the Jets are home underdogs, and you
(27:08):
look at the Giants, they're a standard three point underdog
against Seattle. What do you think about what the market
is saying, what the books are saying, Vegas is saying
about the Jets and the Giants because they couldn't scream
any louder. We're not convinced either of these teams are
the real deal. I'm not convinced either. Uh and and
(27:28):
the bookmaker has set the lines that they're not convinced. Uh.
You know, New England and the Jets historically have had
some really good matchups points spread wise. The pre the
pre look aheadline of this was like seven points. It's
two and a half. Two. We don't know what's going
on in New England too, that they just don't know
who they're starting. Quarterback is over, there is happy is
(27:52):
it back? No one knows anything here, so it's uh,
it's interesting situation here. This is that their home dog,
and this is situation. It's a very low total. This
is one of those games if I'm looking to take
the Jets, I'm looking to buy a the three this
this this, this game can easily be decided by a
field goal and you don't want to get caught short
and lose by half a point. I would lean to
(28:14):
the Jets probably in this situation plus three the Giants game,
Like I said, I'm looking about them onto for season wins.
So um, it's the Giants having a much better record.
It looks like a better team on paper even but um,
they're not gonna do any respect from the linemaker. I'll
ask you one more game the Niners in the Rams,
(28:36):
catch my attention. The Rams a home underdog plus a
point and a half. Right now on bed MGM. You
saw Christian McCaffrey make his debut last week, limited action
as expected, but both his rushing prop and his receiving
prop went over. Might get a much bigger role this
week against the Rams. What are your impressions on either
(28:56):
Christian McCaffrey, what kind of game he might have, and
the way the game mighty out between the Niners and
the Rams. And this is another one of those look
aheadlines that's way off. Rams are minus three on the
look at headline, three and a half on one of
the markets, and now here you have one of half.
Its some about five point move. The Rams have shown
that they're just not the Ram Now you listen, they
(29:17):
weren't that great last year. Last year was I mean
they were? I know they won a Super Bowl I
I either team could have won that game. Um, they're
just showing that they're not the super Bowl team. Uh,
this year either and uh again the parody. We talked
about it earlier. Anything can happen the way this game
will play out. Well, I'll tell you, if anything, I
would have to lean san Fran in this game, even
(29:40):
though it's it is a pretty big move from the
look aheadline. I'm just really down on the Rams this year,
and and even though they started out really bad and
then then they look a little bit better since then.
But I'm looking for san Fran and I'm looking for
baby McCaffrey to be uh, you know, one of the
star on that obviously on that team, and this is
(30:02):
this is a really good move for him, really good
move for the team. Now they just have to play
like the contenders that they're supposed to be. So we'll
see what happens. You know, before we go, crack, I
just wanted to pick your brain a little bit what
year processes for player props because there are a lot
of people that just think, oh, this guy's going over.
Oh this quarterback he's gonna go over his passing yardage.
(30:24):
Oh this running back he's gonna go over his running
total right there. What is your process to determine whether
you're looking over or under on a prop that well,
you know, uh, this year is an unusual year. I'm
like a seventy playing on unders on player props this year.
I'm literally more like not fifty fifty, but I am
(30:46):
playing more unders. But um, this year a lot of
these player props were coming up with a number that
the book that you know, we we actually put every
single all our stuff as computers driven, as analytical driven,
are our numbers that I have my team, I have
four guys that I work with, and this year is
a very strange here. Like I said, but we're killing it.
We're killing the the props this year. Um. I have
(31:09):
to tell you, maybe the totals because the totals have
been lower and lower. Um, I'm thinking that correlates with
the lines on the player props being lower and lower.
And we're we're finding situations where the individual player props
have dropped down like yardage ten to twelve of what
(31:30):
it did what they did last year, but yet there's
still achieving those same numbers. So I don't want to
give away too much stuff and have someone to start
reverse engineering what I'm saying. But um, and and already
my my, my, my prop specialist to who I work
with every week of prior here saying what are you
doing here? But anyway that that that's just one thing
that I think is happening here. So, um, what do
(31:52):
I think? I think I'll start giving out some more
unders though as the season goes on, which I've been
successful for two decades plus bettings as they've been up,
the player props be coming up. This is only a
super Bowl thing. Remember years ago, Literally it was only
on a super Bowl on the Super Bowl that if
became playoffs the super Bowl. Now it's every single game
with all these new sports books that entered the market.
(32:13):
So the public loves the bed overs on things, and
I expect that eventually to come down and we'll start
betting some unders and uh going with the flow like
the old days. Interesting, man, Hey, be sure to check
out the new look and features in the bed MGM app.
It's fast and easy access to the sports you love,
whether it's live betting, the Daily Lions boost, or the
(32:34):
cash Op feature. New users can use the code countdown
for a special offer. Alright, catch us on Fox Sports
Radio three hours on Sunday leading up to kick off.
So actually this week we've got Denver at Jacksonville. We've
got the London early kick time. That game will be
going on during our show, so maybe watch some London action.
(32:55):
Listen to us. We'll get you all set for the
full Week eight slate. It's Fox Sports Radio ten am
until one pm. Bill Krackenberger as sharp as it gets,
Jeff Schwartz, eight year NFL veteran, and myself Brian Though.
It's countdown to kick off on Fox Sports Radio. Catch
us this Sunday
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