January 31, 2021 • 40 mins
Bernie Fratto discusses the latest Super Bowl lines and the prop bet market with longtime Vegas oddsmaker Dave Sharapan. FSR's Aaron Torres drops by to discuss the latest in college basketball and explains how this year's March Madness will happen. Bernie sounds off on Matt Stafford after the news of him being traded to the Rams. Plus, Bernie gives the history of prop bets and gets a strong prop to bet from Sleepy J!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. Well, in the words
of Austin Powers, allow myself to introduce myself. This is
Straight out of Vegas. Ign Bernie Fratto live from the
Farmers Insurance Fox Sports Radio Studios called one eight Farmers
to switch and you could save on your auto insurance.
(00:22):
What else are you gonna do with your phone the
next few minutes? Look at pictures of food your friends
eight again call one Farmers for a quote. We are
and on that note, welcome back to another critically acclaimed
edition of Straight Out of Vegas, the weekend adaptation. Tonight,
(00:44):
we dive right in as we have a couple of
great guests and about fifteen minutes will be joined by
Aaron Torres to talk some college hoops, because yeah, we've
got a transition into that and there's some real storylines developing.
And in about sixty seconds we'll chop it up with
long time Las Vegas bookmaker Dave Sherripan as we are
in the final countdown for Super Bowl fifty. Now later
(01:09):
on after after Brian Finlay's epic update always sensational, sleep
people weigh in with another best bet, and then I'm
going to weigh in on this Matt Stafford situation as
he comes to Los Angeles. As you all know, I
did the Detroit Lions pre and postgame show for about
ten years that I've maintained all my contacts, and uh, look,
(01:31):
there's a lot to talk about this and this this
just happened, and I could probably do a whole show
on it, but I don't want to put you to sleep,
and we're gonna close out the show later. By the way,
I want to get into the history of props, betting props,
super Bowl props, and there's not only a great backstory there,
(01:53):
but you've got a situation where now there are there
they're more creative than ever. And of the hundred and
fifty million dollars that will be bet on the Super
Bowl this year, well I think about a third of
it will be be props. So you know, you know,
there's a lot of creativity here, all right. So look,
(02:13):
as you know sports or entertainment, but they're more than that.
They are shared experience, and as such, people want to
talk about them. You've come to the right place. You've
got a lot to talk about tonight. So anyway, um,
as they say, and Harold Stats in Minnesota. It's gonna
be lit. This is straight out of Vegas, the pregame
show you always wanted. Look, the interesting thing about the
(02:36):
Super Bowl, there's been fifty four of them played, and
what can we glean from the fifty four that have
been played. Well, the one thing I do know is
the team with the most total yards in the Super
Bowl he's thirteen, straight up. And it kind of goes
hand in hand with the fact that teams with a
better defense will They won forty four fifty four Super
Bowl games. So if you're looking for some kind of
(02:58):
an angle with Tampa Bay brings the league's seventh best
defense into the Super Bowl. Straight up, they rank number
seven in Kansas City, so for what it's worth, and
Tampa Bay, by the way, limited six opponents to their
season yards low. Kansas City only did that once or twice. Now,
(03:19):
look this season, Kansas City was eleven and all in
games when they ran for a hundred yards on the ground.
So if you're looking for an angle, they're One of
the things you have to really consider here is that
if the Chiefs are able to run the ball well,
that could be a real issue for the for the
Tampa Bay Bucks Look, it's not lost on me that
(03:40):
the Chiefs were trailing by ten with about five minutes
to go last year, and eventually one of these things
are gonna catch up, and you're going up against Tom Brady,
and I know that Buffalo had a nine nothing lead
last week in Kansas City, roared back and showed him
whose boss. But all I can say is this, the
moment was too big for Buffalo. They're gonna be back,
but they just weren't ready for it that day. I
want to take a look at some stats that actually
(04:01):
really matter, all right. First of all, the turnover differential
this year the Bucks they were plus eight, the Chiefs
were plus six. But the first quarter point differential the
buckser minus twelve, the Chiefs for plus twenty four. Red
zone offense, we've talked about this. The Chiefs have had
some issues in the red zone recently, settling for field
goals only ten. The Bucks are fifth. The red zone
(04:24):
defense Bucks or nineteen, Chiefs are thirty second. Short yardage
rushing offense Bocks first, the Chiefs thirty second. Short yardage
defense Bucks, Chiefs thirty second. The Bucks have a better defense,
and they have better special teams, and when it comes
down to place kicking in the postseason. The Buccaneers kicker
(04:45):
Ryan suck Up, he's a perfect twelve for twelve on
postseason field goals and seventeen of eighteen on extra points.
And Harrison Butcker, He's missed a couple of field goals,
but he's thirty two or thirty four and extra points.
The edge. I actually think the Bucks have a slight
edge in this game. Now, look, the one angle here
that is concerning if you're a Brady fan, is that
(05:08):
the defensive coordinator for Kansas City Steve Spagnola, and Steve
Spagnola has had Brady's number. He's there's just no question
when Sunday rolls around, he's gonna run some exotic blitzes
and multiple angles. And in the last four games versus
Tom Brady, Spagnola is not only three and one, Brady's
(05:28):
only had seven touchdowns and these four six turnovers. His
passer ratings eighty four point three. But are the Bucks
peaking because in the first twelve games they were seven
and five. In the last seven games there seven And oh, okay,
we've got our guests. Let's go to the gentleman. Dave Sherripan.
He's been a good friend of mine for the last
ten years, an insider bookmaker here in Las Vegas. He
(05:51):
seed it all. And how many conversations have we had
over the counter like the one we're about to have.
Say hello to Dave Sherrippin. Dave, thanks for joining us. Bernie,
what's up man? Staying up late with you? I mean
like we used to do it in the morning at
the book and now we do it late night on
the radio. Brother, what's up? I'm glad you could make it, buddy.
Want to get your perspective because and sir, we must
(06:11):
say a little technical difficulty there, but be that as
it may. Let's move forward. So Dave ran out of
the gate seventies of the tickets around Kansas City this far.
What do you make of that? I mean, why wouldn't
they be you know, it's it's it's my homes, it's
the Chiefs, it's the defending champs, and they won this
exact matchup in week twelve, So you fully expect the
(06:35):
majority of the tickets to be on the Chiefs. Um
it may not be the majority of the money, but
not surprising at all. The thing that's gonna surprise me.
Bernie is going to be if this line moves off
the three, You tell me which book is going to
move off the three, and then we'll know what the
real story is. When that happens, We'll tell you, buddy.
I'll bet a finger that never you they're gonna see
(06:57):
two and a half. But I will say this, I
think it's been three and a half at subshops. I
grabbed three and a half earlier in the week. I
doubt it gets to four because too much professional money
would come in. But here's the thing, Davis, you will
know behind the book, and I'm sure you work many
Super Bowls. It's my understanding. Almost fifty percent of the money,
fifty percent of the action he's going to come in
on Saturday and Sunday. Oh, it's easily. I would say, Uh,
(07:22):
someone asked me that earlier this week. I would put
the number at seventy of the money or more comes
in between Friday, Saturday Sunday. And I think that's even
going to be more the case with the situation being
what it is, with the pandemic and everything, and travel
being so restricted and people being hesitant. You know, the
parties are gonna look a lot different. Um, the rooms
(07:45):
are gonna look a lot different. So I don't know.
I don't know how much money has actually come in.
So when you hear about sev or seventy the tickets
are on the chiefs, I don't know. I don't put
much stock in that right now, and I don't know
if I'll put much stock in that at the time
the game kicks off. Well, that's true, and I would
just say this that this is one of those games
(08:07):
where the public can match the pros in terms of
dollar amount and handling all of those things. So it
remains to be seen. I guess what happens. Dave. Let's
talk a little bit about props, because that's something that's
really taken on a life of their own, and it's
kind of fascinating. I'm sure you've been part of that
three day process for you guys brainstorm and analyze what
to learn from the year before, and research all the
(08:29):
data then loaded in the computer. I bet you had
some long days and nights when you were putting together
those props. Man, I'll tell you what's sitting in that
room and having those debates. It's a lot of fun one,
but it's a lot of work and trying to I mean,
like you know what some of the guys in town
and you know, I just the crew at the West
Gate has done an amazing job with that packet. I
(08:51):
was down there the other day picking it up, and uh,
you know, it just gets thicker and thicker every year
and then you know, new books, try new things, and
always trying to top each other. And like one of
the fun things that went on in the room was,
you know, you would propose a prop you know, try
to be different, and you would get you know, shot down.
(09:13):
You would get well that's that's that's that's okay, or wow,
that's a great idea, and then someone else would come
up with theirs and we would actually bet each other
on which crop was going to get more action. So
it was a sense of pride. It was a competition
among the guys in the room. Yes, right, So I mean,
(09:35):
this is this is what we do. This is the
life we've chosen, you know, to be around this business.
So everything is like that in life, but this this
one gives you a chance to shine where you know,
you put up a number and see where it goes.
And then you kind of predict where it's gonna close,
and it's just a it's a little badge of honor
(09:56):
if you're right, and you know it's uh, you might
have to hear about it for a eight year two
after the game if you're wrong. But it's it's a
lot of fun competition and like the crossboard props have
taken on a whole new length of their own and
what can I come up with? It may be different
and wow, I don't know if that's the right number,
but I'm gonna put some opinion into it. Like this
(10:17):
is that time when you can kind of put your
opinion into something and get instantaneous feedback for better or
for worse. But yeah, so it is a lot of fun.
But again, by the time the game kicks off, you
can take a deep breath and go okay, and then
you've got to grade them. And that's the other things
trading the props in the risk room. You know, you listen,
(10:41):
we all know the most bet on prop every single year.
I'll let you guess which one do you think it is? Well,
I know last year was Patrick Mahomes rushing over yards,
but I don't know. It could be the coin flip
for all I know last year, last year, it is
the coin flip bird, That's what I mean. You know
what you're doing, like, that's what I'm talking about. It's
the coin flip. And here's what's interesting. Game. You have
(11:03):
to cut you off. You talk about grating. To my understanding,
Once the coin flip is in, you grade those tickets immediately,
people go catch your tickets and they go they go
bet Moore during the game if you can, if you're
an efficient book and you've got an efficient crew, that's
one what you do. And I'll never forget a few
years ago, you know, the biggest bet I ever saw
(11:25):
on the coin toss in all of my time in
the book share in Vegas was a fifty dime bet
on the coin flip. It was fifty dimes and fifty
flat because you didn't want to lay the one oh
two that we were offering. He just wanted fifty flat. Okay,
fair enough, and grated it. You know, the coin flips
and the guys in the rooms it heads, is it tails,
and it heads as it tails, and that its tails,
(11:46):
all right, great? It grated. Uh, we're stuck thirty eight times.
You're stuck thirty eight times. Before they even walk on
the field. And it's fun because every top like that,
every one the guys out. You know, if the boss
is in the room, he wants to know, all right,
how much was that one worse? And you and it's
just like a ticker and you know, first past incomplete
(12:09):
or complete. You watch him drop back and he throws
it incomplete. Oh good, that was worth eight team times good.
All right, We've got some of the coin toss money back.
And you go along like that. It's a really fun
unique day in the sports book of all the days
of the year. Talking with Dave Sheripin, longtime sports book
operator here in Las Vegas, CG Technology Candid Gaming used
(12:31):
to see him over at t M. Dave, Before I
let you run, I want you to create a couple
of props that are uh that I know for a
fact a couple of professional betters I know have already
fired on them. The Chiefs under three and a half punts,
because I mean, let's face it, the last five games
that you know, Kansas Cities pun or Dustin Colquitt has
been like the Maytag repair man. Plus Reed likes to
(12:54):
go for it on fourth down. Do you agree with
that play. I actually thought the numbers should be two
and a half. So you've got three and a half. Yeah,
if you've got three and a half, m I figured
one each half is what I came with, you know,
when I looked at it. So three and a half
is a great number. And I think that one is
one of the best ones that I've heard yet. So yes,
(13:15):
I like that one. The other one, Dave, will there
be a roughing the passer penalty? No? Minus one twenty?
We all know there are a fewer penalties in the
Super Bowl anyway, and no one wants to be the
guy who cheaps outs Brady and you can't get them home.
So I think that to no play. What do you think? Wow?
I don't know about making plays on the official calls
(13:38):
because the listen, the game has not officiated anything close
to what we know it was, and it's even changed
in the past, like two years. It seems very flag happy.
And yes, there's less calls in the playoffs, but you
can guarantee if a guy's face, you know, if he
touches Brady's face masks by accident, dropping a pass or
(13:58):
point going to block a point. It seems like that
would be one that they would be willing to throw. So,
I mean, the price isn't bad, but I would be
leary of that one. I I think that's too close
to call. And if I'm asked to be on a
side there, I think I would rather have the yes.
All right, Dave, Look, I apologize. We had a technical difficulty,
(14:20):
so got to you late. Let's get you on and
get in a few weeks as we get towards March Madness. Dave,
all right, hey, man, you know I'm only a phone
call away. Anytime you need me to come, I'll be
on the show. If you need me to stay tonight,
I can do that too. So whatever you need to do,
I'm here for you. Be back in touch shortly. Dave,
thanks so much, really appreciate you. Man. That is Dave
(14:41):
sharpan longtime sports book director here in Las Vegas. CG Technologies,
CANNERD Gaming knows this stuff. Good Pittsburgh guy, a lot
of fun to hang around with. Up next, we're gonna
have another great guest. Daron Torres is our college basketball
hoops guru. And there's a lot of storylines for me. Now,
by the way, I haven't forgotten, believe me. We are
(15:02):
going to get to Matt Stafford, and we are going
to get to the origin and story behind profits and
some other profits you're gonna want to know about. We
get a lot of things to get to tonight. I'm
Bernie Freddo coming to you alive from the Farmer's Insurance
Fox Sports Radio Studios. This is the pregame show you
always wanted, So don't go away. You're listening to Straight
out of Vegas, the Great Bernie Frido. Folks. We are
(15:26):
back on Straight out of Vegas, the pregame show you
always wanted. I'm Bernie Freddo, come to you alive from
the Farmer's Insurance Fox Sports Radio Studios. Called one day
eight farmers to switch and you could save a bundle
on your car insurance. All right, let's welcome in a gentleman.
Hear him every Saturday night eight to eleven with Arnie Spanier.
He's our college basketball guru here at Fox Sports Radio.
(15:49):
Say hello to Aaron Torus. Aaron, how worry you, buddy? Bernie?
Just nice to uh to be on air with a
real professional tonight. So thank you for having me. I
appreciate thanks for coming on there. Look, I want to
dive right in with the elephant of the room. Gonzaga
won again. The ninety of now won fourteen in a
row by double digits. They're actually drawing comparisons to the
U n LVAM. I don't know if I believe that,
(16:12):
but be there as it made. Do you expect him
to go all the way and finish the job? And
if not, who can trip them up? So I think
they'll enter the n c A Tournament undefeated. And there's
actually a few reasons why. Um you know. One, they're
there significantly better than every team in their conference, the WCC.
There have been years past where there is a second
legitimate team in that conference, including last year where I
(16:35):
think b y U, had there been an n c
A tournament, could have been a real threat to make
a real deep run. B y U is good this year,
but if you watch them today, they needed a couple
overtimes to be Pacific. And so you look at the conference,
uh there, there's just nobody that's gonna even be competitive
with them. And I would add on top of this,
and I know we're gonna get to it in a minute.
I'm not sold Gonzaga is gonna play in a conference
(16:57):
Tournament this year. So yeah, yeah, you add those two
factors in, I think they will enter the n c
A Tournament undefeated. We can get into some other variables.
I don't even know if they're the best team in
the country. I really like the way Baylor is playing
right now. They're an incredible juggernaut, and I think that
they're defeating I don't want to say definitively, but I
feel very confident they're going to enter the n c
A Tournament undefeated. Alright, fair enough, and then anything can
(17:19):
happen there. It's pretty hard to win six in a row.
But let's let's not bury the lead here, because one
of the topics that emerge last week was this conference
tournament situation, and now some schools are seriously considering opting out.
What are your thoughts on this. I think it is
probably the single biggest story among people that work in
(17:41):
college basketball that I don't believe has really gone mainstream yet. Um.
I think conference tournaments are gonna get played. They mean
too much money to too many conferences, to too many
TV networks, all that kind of stuff, and the big
conferences certainly are incentivized to play those conference tournaments because
say a conference like the Big Ten that might have
(18:01):
four or five teams on the bubble. You obviously want
to put as many teams as possible in position to
make the n A tournament where you can make real
money by getting teams in and having them win games there.
Where it gets complicated, though, is a couple of places
you think about the teams that are definitively not only
in the n c A tournament but comfortable with their
seating all that kind of stuff. Is it really worth
(18:23):
the risk of going to a conference tournament, uh, potentially
getting infected with the virus, having players potentially missed time
in the n c A tournament to play what is
ultimately a meaningless conference tournament. Now, I don't think that
applies to uh, say a North Carolina who's not very
good this year, do Kansas whoever? But you talk about Gonzaga,
(18:44):
is there really any benefit to them going to the
w CC tournament and potentially risking players getting the virus?
For Baylor in the Big Twelve, I'll take it a
step further, Briney, this is something I don't think a
lot of people realize. The n c A has put
in all kinds of crazy rules UH for travel and
safety protocol in the n c A tournament this season.
(19:05):
And I bring that up because one of the rules
is when you're eliminated from your conference tournament, you have
to stay at the conference tournament site until it's time
to travel to the n c A tournament. What does
that mean Baylor goes to the Big Twelve Tournament, they
lose on Thursday, they gotta sit around a hotel in
Texas or wherever I think Kansas City is where it's played,
(19:26):
and they can't leave to go back to campus until
it's time to leave for indies. So there are so
many variables and I just think it's a fascinating topic.
It's gonna lead to a lot of kind of big
picture conversations about the validity of the field and all
that kind of stuff, because is it a valid field
if Gonzaga doesn't even compete for their conference championship, which
would allow UH somebody else to get the automatic bids,
(19:49):
same with any of these teams that opt out. And
I think there's conferences like the w c C, like
the A A C where Houston is running away with it,
that are actually incentivized to tell their best teams to
stay home. So it's a fascinating topic that's really going
to take on a layer, a bunch of layers here,
I believe over the next couple of weeks talking with
Aaron Torrance Aeron Torris, Sorry about that there, buddy, last
(20:10):
time I ran a tongue from that place. I will
tell you I have always believed if I ever need
a pseudonym in a hotel, I'll go with Aaron Torrance
because because I'm just like, it's close enough where if
I forget that I used it as a pseudonym, I'll remember.
But it is tours. Yeah right, Yeah, at least I
didn't say Aaron el segundo or something like yeah, uh,
we are talking with Aaron Tourist, Fox Sports Radio, GURUF
(20:33):
College Hoops Aeron. I don't want to spend much time
in this, but since I mean it's been since Moby
Dick was a minnow, since the blue bloods like uh,
you know, um Kentucky, North Carolina Duke. Uh, they're not
even in the top twenty. What do you you know,
what do you make of at what I make of
(20:53):
it is, Bernie, is you know what I'll say is
this is that you know there are a lot of
things that that can be be true thro Um, and
I understand the frustration of a Kentucky fan, of a
Duke fan, even if a Kansas fan, who I don't
think people realize has lost four their last five, even
though they'll probably make the n c A Tournament. And
what I think has happened this year is very simple,
is that I don't believe that there are any programs
(21:16):
that were hurt more by the very nature of this
particular off season than Kentucky and Duke. And what I
mean by that is this offseason was not normal for
people who don't know the college basketball off season. Players
can come back to campus, you know, sometime around June one,
right after Memorial Day. They can practice with the coaches
a couple of times a week, and then they really
(21:36):
ramp things up when school starts in the fall. You
obviously get a few exhibition games, those out of conference
games to really load up and get comfortable. Well, you
take all of that off the table for a school
like Kentucky or a school like Duke, which is essentially
flipping over its roster year after year and always relying
on freshman and I think it really hurts them. Uh,
(21:57):
Duke seems to be finally figuring it out, but you
look at can Kucky. I mean, I don't think it's
gonna get better. But it's also in large part because
the first uh, they haven't the first two games of
the season. After that, they have played only Power Conference teams.
And that was a team that needed Eastern Kentucky, Western Illinois,
(22:17):
Southern Louisiana, you know, named the Directional School. They needed
a few of those teams on the schedule. They didn't
get it. I think it's hurt Kentucky and Duke more
than anything. But you know, you add in the fact
Kansas isn't playing that well. North Carolina is not playing
that well. Michigan State, I know you you're gonna talk
about Michigan once I get off with you here. Uh,
Michigan State's another one that I think they're probably on
the outside looking in if the tournament was decided today.
(22:39):
But when you lose, when you lose to Rutgers by thirty,
you know we're living in bizarre world. Ookay, we're wrapping
it up with Aaron tourists, but Aaron before we do, Look, buddy,
they're gonna have a March Manness Tournament this year because
they have to recoup some of the money they lost.
But I understand it's gonna be in a bubble in Indianapolis.
What can you tell us about that? Yeah, they wouldn't
like the word use of the word bubble because by technicality,
(23:02):
players are gonna be kind of bouncing all over the
Greater Indiana Indianapolis area. But it is a bubble, Burnie,
So they're gonna tell you it's not a bubble, but
it is. Um. Essentially, the entire tournament is going to
be played in and around Indianapolis. Now that will include Bloomington,
which is where University of Indiana is, or Indiana University
West Lafayette where Purdue is. But the idea is kind
(23:23):
of get everyone in one place. Um, you can control
the environment. UM. You know, everyone is on the same page.
And it just never made sense in this pandemic, in
this world that we live in to have teams go
into three different sites in three different weekends, let alone
a conference tournament where you're talking about four different sites
in four different weekends. So teams are literally they're gonna
(23:44):
get there about four or five days before the tournament starts.
I guess even a little bit earlier, because you need
seven straight days of negative tests before you you're allowed
to play. Um and you're gonna get there and you're
gonna hang out in a hotel and you're gonna lay low. Uh.
And then we're gonna play the tournament. And the schedule
is gonna be little bit different this year. It's gonna
start a day or two later. There's gonna be a
(24:04):
different timing in terms of the structure of the tournament.
But everything's gonna be in Indianapolis, all six D eight
teams until we get to the final one early April.
All right, Aaron, let's do this. Let's get you back
on March four, this selection Sunday. Let's get you on
before then. It'll be here before you know it. We
can chop things up then. I can't wait to see
what the scene is like at that point. Thank you
for having me, Bernie. All right, that's Aaron Taurus, our
(24:26):
Fox Sports radio guru. When it comes to college hoops,
you hear them every Saturday night with Arnie Spanier. For
me to eleven a very lively show. Come up, we're
gonna have Sleepy's Best Bet, and yes we are going
to dive in to this Matt Stafford situation, and I'll
give you my thoughts. I only cover the lines in
Detroit for the better part of ten years, so I
(24:48):
might have a thing or two to say about that.
But first let's go to the man we affectionately refer
to him as the Wizard of Westwood. It's Brian Fairley
with a latist. Well, thank you so much, Ernie, and yes,
U c l A Basketball got the win on Saturday,
but you know that's not necessarily the lead. It has
to be Matt Stafford. Moving to the l A Rams,
(25:09):
there's a big trade that was announced on Saturday night,
and you've seen many reports out there as the Rams
will give up a first round draft pick in one,
along with one in three, and a third round pick
in one along with Jared Goff four the aforementioned Matt Stafford.
L A, by the way, does not have a first
(25:31):
round selection until twenty four. In the NBA, the Lakers
tap dance passed the Celtics five Anthony Davis twenty seven points,
fourteen rebounds. Boston's Marcus Smart strained his left calf and
according to reports, he will have an m R I
on Sunday, the Warriors bottle up the Pistons one eighteen
to ninety one. Steph Curry twenty eight points. He canned
(25:53):
six three pointers. The Sun strangled the Mavericks one one
oh five. Chris Paul turned it on in the fourth quarters,
scoring sixteen of his twenty seven points in that final period.
How about Dallas losing four games in a row. Meanwhile,
the Rockets have won five games in a row after
they take down the Belicans and earlier on Saturday, Trailblazers
(26:16):
Damian Lillard had the ball in his hands down a
couple looking to win the game against the Bulls. It's
Damian Lillard with the ball down to two seconds left,
free for the win. Blazers. Damian Lillard the fanaway three
at the buzzer and the Blazers winning one three, one two.
(26:38):
It's a Rich City winner, Trail Blazers Radio Network. As
the Blazers were down by five with eight point nine
seconds left and Lillard rattles off two threes in that period.
Let's get back to Bernie Frado his sports gambling pixars
effective as counting cards or maybe the band counting that
(27:00):
that too? All right? Thanks Brian the silver tongue devil.
Brian Finley. All right, another silver tongue devil. Sleepy, He's
up with another best bet. It's a prop bet. Pay
close attention to this one having to do with the
running back. You think something of the radar, But I'm
gonna tell you why he's not. Let's give it a listen.
All right, Bernie, here we go NFL Super Bowl fifty
(27:20):
best bet prop bet. Now, I'm gonna go ahead, and
I'm gonna give you Darryl Williams longest rushing attempt over
eight and a half rushing yards. Now. Williams went over
this current number four times during the regular season, and
most notably twice in the two playoff games for the Chiefs.
He had a long of thirteen against Buffalo and a
long of sixteen against Cleveland. Here's my big factor for
(27:43):
this game here, Bernie. Now, I think that the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers, you know that they have a good enough
rush defense where they might actually d commit from that
because of the passing attack from the Kansas City Chiefs.
We remember what the Chiefs did you know to this
Buccaneers defense not too long ago where Patrick Mahomes went
off for you know, four hundred and sixties some yards,
(28:03):
and Tyree Hill had you know, some historic record first
half where he was doing somersaults in the end zone.
It's that Chiefs passing attack that the Buccaneers need to
really go ahead and focus on in this game or
it could be trouble. Therefore, I don't believe that Williams
is going to get a whole lot of attention in
this game. Now. I understand that Levian Bell is coming back,
Clyde Edwards Hilaire's coming back, but I'm not really too
(28:25):
concerned with those players, being that Williams got the bulk
of the carries in the playoffs. Also take note to
this that when Tampa Bay played the Chiefs this year,
Williams didn't even play in that game. So that Buccaneers
defense maybe they don't pay a whole lot of attention
to Williams thinking he's that much of a threat. And
I can tell you one thing about the Buccaneers defense
when they played the Chiefs the first time. Levian Bell
(28:47):
played in that game and had a rush for ten
yards or more. Clyde Edwards Hilaire played in that game
and he had a rush for ten yards or more. Also,
quarterback Patrick Mahomes had a rush in that game four
ten yards or more. Therefore, I'm gonna go ahead, and
I'm gonna play Darryll Williams to go ahead and have
a rush of nine yards or more to cash that ticket, Bernie,
(29:09):
And that's gonna be my Super Bowl best bet prop
bet Alright, So there you have. It's Sleepy's been rock
solid all year on prop bets and or best bets,
and most of them have been prop bets. And here's
what's distinctive about that call. Last year, Damian Williams broke
off a thirty eight yard run to give Kansas City
(29:29):
a thirty one twenty lead for the final score in
the game and the Chiefs victory over the Forts last year.
So that might end up being a really good proper play.
Later on on the show, I'm gonna go into a
great detail on prop plays, the history of pop plays,
the origin, how they started, and what they've grown to.
(29:49):
Now some of the numbers will blow your Ryan, But
I want to talk about this Matt Stafford thing. Obviously,
you heard Steve Disiger broke the news here in Fox
Sports Radio a couple of hour. As you go, look
Stafford comes to the Rams, and clearly, if they don't
go to a super Bowl or win a super Bowl
with Stafford, then this is a bust. It's there's there's
(30:09):
nothing in between. They've already been to a super Bowl
with Jared Goff and they want a playoff game this
year and look good doing it. So Stafford has to
be that X factor. We all know I covered the
Lions for many years in Detroit. Don't need to go
down that road to Lions Preme postgame show. Stafford plays hard,
he plays hurt. I respect him. He's no stranger to
(30:30):
the highlight reel. He does everything but win. You would
think once in twelve years that he would put this
organization on his back. They've been to the playoffs three times,
They've had Pro Bowlers, They've had guys leave the organization
to do well elsewhere. You have to have been there
in Detroit. You have to have been at Ford Field
to see what I see and see what happens when
(30:53):
you get to those critical moments in the game where
you define the moment or the moment that finds you.
Stafford clearly to is a guy you might win with,
but you're not going to win because of if I
had a nickel for every time Stafford rolled right, tried
to extend to play when there was nothing there, threw
a floater across his body, right into a sea of
(31:16):
hands to kill a drive, I'd be rich. Or watching
him fumble on the goal line, or watching him, you know, uh,
fight out of the pocket to to try to live
another day and make a hero play, or not to
live another day, to try to make a glory play.
And he doesn't secure the ball, carrying it like a
loaf of bread to get stripped out of his hands. Look,
(31:38):
Matt Stafford will throw for a lot of yards, He'll
do a lot of things, but most of the time
he did it, it it was meaningless. They were getting beat
late in the fourth quarter, they were getting beat in
the second half, and many times they had those deficits
on turnovers. He called look Stafford broken. In two thousand nine,
he was the number one draft pick. He went to
Highland Park High School in Dallas, the same high school
(31:58):
that Bobby Lane went to. Lobby Langue was the starting
quarterback in nineteen fifty seven, when the last time the
Lions won a championship, long before the Super Bowl January six,
Lions won their only playoff games since nineteen fifty seven
quarterback Dave Craig, and they were outstanding. Those were decent
Lions teams. So the bottom line is this, it's either
(32:19):
gonna work or it's not. And before I turn it
over the crew, I'm gonna let these guys wain in
because they will live it in l a And Chris
is from Detroit. Also, you might have a little bit
different take than I've got. The Lions are gonna eat
seventeen point three million and dead cat money so they
can compete against Matt Stafford. Yes, the Rams play the
Lions this year. Get your popcorn ready, right, let's turn
(32:40):
it over to the crew. Let's start with Actually, let's
start with Ryan Burschner because Ryan hosts a show with
Bow Benson called Swin Shift, And Ryan, are you gonna
have Matt Stafford on your show anytime soon? He's more
than welcome to come on. He absolutely good. He can
come on and talk about Clayton Kershaw. That'll be it'll
be a good time. You know, they went to high
school to get right Dallas, that's Carlan Park High School.
(33:01):
All right, what are your thoughts? You're a Rams fan.
I I think I think this is a great move
for the Rams. I I their championship window is right now,
they know that, and out of quarterbacks that were available,
really the only better option would be Deshaun Watson. And
unless the Texans wanted a first rounder in like one,
I don't think the Rams really had the the more
immediate draft capital to be able to get Watson. So
(33:24):
I think this was the best option that was realistic
for them, and I think it's a very good move.
I'm excited. All right, you're losing your defensive coordinator, though
that's got to be a little that's a conversation with
you day, all right, Chris Profett, the Detroit native. I
know you were a big Stafford fan, and I respect that.
I don't dislike Stafford. I just don't want to beat
a foxhold with him. What are your thoughts? So I
would say this because I do. I have been covering
(33:46):
the Lions now since at least and I've been doing
quite a bit up there. I will say of Stafford
in recent years, he protects the ball a lot better.
I mean, this guy is now on an NFL leaderless
or fourth quarter comeback, and we'll say, maybe he dug
a few of those whom self, But I mean, those
numbers are there, those stats are Their quarterbacks are not
the only piece on the field. They don't play defense.
(34:07):
They are, if nothing else, an engine they have to
put in the right spots. He's never had a run
game in Detroit, as much as they've tried to put
a run game around him. Only now recently do they
have something in DeAndre Swift. I think in l A
he'll look phenomenal. I think for the Lions, they got
a lot back. I don't think they'll be competing much
this year. They're gonna eat this salary with with Jared Goff,
(34:28):
they're gonna have a season more like the Jets are Jaguars.
But then they'll be able to get out from underneath Golf.
Then they have enough draft capital, they have flexibility for
the next few drafts. They can rebuild their team however
they want now that Stafford is gone. Alright, fair enough,
Chris covered a lot of ground. I would say this,
the Lions won five games this year with Stafford. I
bet you they win more games next year, and I
(34:49):
bet you they improve incrementally better than the Rams improve
over the season. They had last year. All right, let's
go to Brian Finley. Bryan, what are your thoughts. I
I think that this is a high risk situation for
the Rams because they are gonna go what is it now, guys, seven,
They're gonna make it eight years or something around that
where they will not have a first round draft picks.
(35:11):
So there's a whole lot of pressure on Stafford to
stay healthy. And Chris would know better than anyone that
Stafford at times has been injury prone. So you're really
putting a lot of pressure on this quarterback who has
never really shown that he is the kind of leader
that can take his team into the playoffs. What she's done, yes,
but they haven't won in the playoffs. So there's no
(35:34):
concerns with me as far as his skill set in
his talent. But what's yet to be seen, Bernie, is
his leadership qualities under pressure, playing meaningful games late into
November and December when he got the Seahawks and the
Cardinals rise. That's right, and he's never done well against
the Seahawks or the Cardinals, yes, or the Niners or
the Rams for that matter. Good stuff, Brian, and by
(35:57):
the way, not for nothing, He's eight and fifty five
against teams who finished above five again once in twelve years.
You think you could elevate a franchise. And let me
just set the record straight, because when Stafford was a
rookie and oh nine he landed funny on his shoulder,
wasn't his fault and dislocated his shoulder and he missed
the rest of nine. Then in week one he had
the same fluke injury and they called him a China doll.
(36:19):
That's not fair. The guy is tougher than a two
dollar steak. He's tough. I don't question his his you know,
ability to compete. I don't question his huddle, presence, is command,
any of those things. It's just that when it matters most,
he's Eddie Haskell. Okay, He's the guy who, Hey, take
my car to the car wash. He brings it back,
fills it up, vacuums it out, and all of a
(36:40):
sudden you go look at the driver's side. There, un
there's a dent. He said, where'd that come from? That's
Matt Stafford. I'm telling you, ran Fans, I'm not gonna
eat my words. A year ago, I was talking about
how Tom Brady would win ten games and Bill Belichick
would win less than eight? How'd that work out? If
I'm wrong next December, I'll own up to it. I
don't think I'm going to be all right. Coming up,
I want to talk about the Super Bowl prop betting,
(37:02):
and it's taken out of life of its own. There's
a terrific backstory there. There's a lot to cover and oh,
by the way, there's only choices this year. Unincredible. I'm
Bernie Fratto. We're coming to you live from the Farmers
Insurance Fox Sports Radio Studios, and this is the pregame
show you always wanted to. Don't go away if you're
listening to Straight out of Vegas, one of the best
(37:27):
in the business, Bernie Fratto. They are back on Straight
out of Vegas, the pregame show you always wanted. I'm
Bernie Frattock. Come do you live from the Farmers Insurance
Fox Sports Radio Studios. Call Farmers today for a quote.
All right, it's already hot and heavy. People are betting
props like you can't believe. They'll probably be almost fifty
(37:48):
million dollars wagered here in Las Vegas on props this
you know, Super Bowl fifty five all by themselves. And
it's sort of interesting how this whole thing started, because
you remember Super Bowl twenty when the Bears killed the
New England Patriots. Prior to that game, there was never
such a thing called props. Well, they put up one
(38:10):
prop refrigerator perie a hundred one to score touchdown, and
it hit and it was often running and by or
over thirty prop bets. And then a few years later
the Imperial Palace, an obscure book property that's no longer
open here in Vegas, they rolled out a hundred profits
and they became the go to for profits and the
bookmakers realized that this was really something that would catch on,
(38:33):
and it did. And there's two types of props. There
are player props, like, for instance, Tom Brady, will he
pass for more or less than three passing yards minus
one tenant William Hill. So you're basically predicting that if
he throws less than that, you bet the ender, or
more you bet you over, you get the you get
the picture. Chris Godwin seventy four receiving yards. If you
(38:55):
want to predict it goes over you, you get the picture.
Game props are also a way to bet and those
are based on stats or occurrences that happened throughout the game,
such as the result of the opening kickoff, or when
the first play of the game will be over under,
the amount of turnovers by both teams. Good example is
last year Super Bowl fifty four, there was an overunder
(39:15):
for the longest field goal forty seven and a half yards.
The Niners kicked a forty two yard in the third
quarter and that was the longest one. So if you
played the under, you got it. This year, there are
twelve ways to bet props and I'll get you. We're
gonna go next week. Steve Fessig and I are going
to do a full show and we're gonna go over
all this and it's gonna be a lot of fun.
But you're gonna have all kinds of chances, like well,
(39:37):
Tom Brady throw three picks that is six to one,
and we're not gonna go through all twelve, but we're
gonna give you some best bets next week. I want
to thank Aaron Torres and Dave Sherriff Pan for coming on.
I want to thank my crew as well, Brian Finley,
Chris Perfett, and Ryan Burr Singer for all your hard
work back in Los Angeles. That's gonna do it for
this week's edition is straight out of Vegas. I'm Bernie Fratto.
(39:58):
Next up the man from Nashville who bring just Strong.
It's time for the Jason Martin Show. Keep it locked
right here on Fox Sports radioa
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. Well, in the words
of Austin Powers, allow myself to introduce myself. This is
Straight out of Vegas. Ign Bernie Fratto live from the
Farmers Insurance Fox Sports Radio Studios called one eight Farmers
to switch and you could save on your auto insurance.
(00:22):
What else are you gonna do with your phone the
next few minutes? Look at pictures of food your friends
eight again call one Farmers for a quote. We are
and on that note, welcome back to another critically acclaimed
edition of Straight Out of Vegas, the weekend adaptation. Tonight,
(00:44):
we dive right in as we have a couple of
great guests and about fifteen minutes will be joined by
Aaron Torres to talk some college hoops, because yeah, we've
got a transition into that and there's some real storylines developing.
And in about sixty seconds we'll chop it up with
long time Las Vegas bookmaker Dave Sherripan as we are
in the final countdown for Super Bowl fifty. Now later
(01:09):
on after after Brian Finlay's epic update always sensational, sleep
people weigh in with another best bet, and then I'm
going to weigh in on this Matt Stafford situation as
he comes to Los Angeles. As you all know, I
did the Detroit Lions pre and postgame show for about
ten years that I've maintained all my contacts, and uh, look,
(01:31):
there's a lot to talk about this and this this
just happened, and I could probably do a whole show
on it, but I don't want to put you to sleep,
and we're gonna close out the show later. By the way,
I want to get into the history of props, betting props,
super Bowl props, and there's not only a great backstory there,
(01:53):
but you've got a situation where now there are there
they're more creative than ever. And of the hundred and
fifty million dollars that will be bet on the Super
Bowl this year, well I think about a third of
it will be be props. So you know, you know,
there's a lot of creativity here, all right. So look,
(02:13):
as you know sports or entertainment, but they're more than that.
They are shared experience, and as such, people want to
talk about them. You've come to the right place. You've
got a lot to talk about tonight. So anyway, um,
as they say, and Harold Stats in Minnesota. It's gonna
be lit. This is straight out of Vegas, the pregame
show you always wanted. Look, the interesting thing about the
(02:36):
Super Bowl, there's been fifty four of them played, and
what can we glean from the fifty four that have
been played. Well, the one thing I do know is
the team with the most total yards in the Super
Bowl he's thirteen, straight up. And it kind of goes
hand in hand with the fact that teams with a
better defense will They won forty four fifty four Super
Bowl games. So if you're looking for some kind of
(02:58):
an angle with Tampa Bay brings the league's seventh best
defense into the Super Bowl. Straight up, they rank number
seven in Kansas City, so for what it's worth, and
Tampa Bay, by the way, limited six opponents to their
season yards low. Kansas City only did that once or twice. Now,
(03:19):
look this season, Kansas City was eleven and all in
games when they ran for a hundred yards on the ground.
So if you're looking for an angle, they're One of
the things you have to really consider here is that
if the Chiefs are able to run the ball well,
that could be a real issue for the for the
Tampa Bay Bucks Look, it's not lost on me that
(03:40):
the Chiefs were trailing by ten with about five minutes
to go last year, and eventually one of these things
are gonna catch up, and you're going up against Tom Brady,
and I know that Buffalo had a nine nothing lead
last week in Kansas City, roared back and showed him
whose boss. But all I can say is this, the
moment was too big for Buffalo. They're gonna be back,
but they just weren't ready for it that day. I
want to take a look at some stats that actually
(04:01):
really matter, all right. First of all, the turnover differential
this year the Bucks they were plus eight, the Chiefs
were plus six. But the first quarter point differential the
buckser minus twelve, the Chiefs for plus twenty four. Red
zone offense, we've talked about this. The Chiefs have had
some issues in the red zone recently, settling for field
goals only ten. The Bucks are fifth. The red zone
(04:24):
defense Bucks or nineteen, Chiefs are thirty second. Short yardage
rushing offense Bocks first, the Chiefs thirty second. Short yardage
defense Bucks, Chiefs thirty second. The Bucks have a better defense,
and they have better special teams, and when it comes
down to place kicking in the postseason. The Buccaneers kicker
(04:45):
Ryan suck Up, he's a perfect twelve for twelve on
postseason field goals and seventeen of eighteen on extra points.
And Harrison Butcker, He's missed a couple of field goals,
but he's thirty two or thirty four and extra points.
The edge. I actually think the Bucks have a slight
edge in this game. Now, look, the one angle here
that is concerning if you're a Brady fan, is that
(05:08):
the defensive coordinator for Kansas City Steve Spagnola, and Steve
Spagnola has had Brady's number. He's there's just no question
when Sunday rolls around, he's gonna run some exotic blitzes
and multiple angles. And in the last four games versus
Tom Brady, Spagnola is not only three and one, Brady's
(05:28):
only had seven touchdowns and these four six turnovers. His
passer ratings eighty four point three. But are the Bucks
peaking because in the first twelve games they were seven
and five. In the last seven games there seven And oh, okay,
we've got our guests. Let's go to the gentleman. Dave Sherripan.
He's been a good friend of mine for the last
ten years, an insider bookmaker here in Las Vegas. He
(05:51):
seed it all. And how many conversations have we had
over the counter like the one we're about to have.
Say hello to Dave Sherrippin. Dave, thanks for joining us. Bernie,
what's up man? Staying up late with you? I mean
like we used to do it in the morning at
the book and now we do it late night on
the radio. Brother, what's up? I'm glad you could make it, buddy.
Want to get your perspective because and sir, we must
(06:11):
say a little technical difficulty there, but be that as
it may. Let's move forward. So Dave ran out of
the gate seventies of the tickets around Kansas City this far.
What do you make of that? I mean, why wouldn't
they be you know, it's it's it's my homes, it's
the Chiefs, it's the defending champs, and they won this
exact matchup in week twelve, So you fully expect the
(06:35):
majority of the tickets to be on the Chiefs. Um
it may not be the majority of the money, but
not surprising at all. The thing that's gonna surprise me.
Bernie is going to be if this line moves off
the three, You tell me which book is going to
move off the three, and then we'll know what the
real story is. When that happens, We'll tell you, buddy.
I'll bet a finger that never you they're gonna see
(06:57):
two and a half. But I will say this, I
think it's been three and a half at subshops. I
grabbed three and a half earlier in the week. I
doubt it gets to four because too much professional money
would come in. But here's the thing, Davis, you will
know behind the book, and I'm sure you work many
Super Bowls. It's my understanding. Almost fifty percent of the money,
fifty percent of the action he's going to come in
on Saturday and Sunday. Oh, it's easily. I would say, Uh,
(07:22):
someone asked me that earlier this week. I would put
the number at seventy of the money or more comes
in between Friday, Saturday Sunday. And I think that's even
going to be more the case with the situation being
what it is, with the pandemic and everything, and travel
being so restricted and people being hesitant. You know, the
parties are gonna look a lot different. Um, the rooms
(07:45):
are gonna look a lot different. So I don't know.
I don't know how much money has actually come in.
So when you hear about sev or seventy the tickets
are on the chiefs, I don't know. I don't put
much stock in that right now, and I don't know
if I'll put much stock in that at the time
the game kicks off. Well, that's true, and I would
just say this that this is one of those games
(08:07):
where the public can match the pros in terms of
dollar amount and handling all of those things. So it
remains to be seen. I guess what happens. Dave. Let's
talk a little bit about props, because that's something that's
really taken on a life of their own, and it's
kind of fascinating. I'm sure you've been part of that
three day process for you guys brainstorm and analyze what
to learn from the year before, and research all the
(08:29):
data then loaded in the computer. I bet you had
some long days and nights when you were putting together
those props. Man, I'll tell you what's sitting in that
room and having those debates. It's a lot of fun one,
but it's a lot of work and trying to I mean,
like you know what some of the guys in town
and you know, I just the crew at the West
Gate has done an amazing job with that packet. I
(08:51):
was down there the other day picking it up, and uh,
you know, it just gets thicker and thicker every year
and then you know, new books, try new things, and
always trying to top each other. And like one of
the fun things that went on in the room was,
you know, you would propose a prop you know, try
to be different, and you would get you know, shot down.
(09:13):
You would get well that's that's that's that's okay, or wow,
that's a great idea, and then someone else would come
up with theirs and we would actually bet each other
on which crop was going to get more action. So
it was a sense of pride. It was a competition
among the guys in the room. Yes, right, So I mean,
(09:35):
this is this is what we do. This is the
life we've chosen, you know, to be around this business.
So everything is like that in life, but this this
one gives you a chance to shine where you know,
you put up a number and see where it goes.
And then you kind of predict where it's gonna close,
and it's just a it's a little badge of honor
(09:56):
if you're right, and you know it's uh, you might
have to hear about it for a eight year two
after the game if you're wrong. But it's it's a
lot of fun competition and like the crossboard props have
taken on a whole new length of their own and
what can I come up with? It may be different
and wow, I don't know if that's the right number,
but I'm gonna put some opinion into it. Like this
(10:17):
is that time when you can kind of put your
opinion into something and get instantaneous feedback for better or
for worse. But yeah, so it is a lot of fun.
But again, by the time the game kicks off, you
can take a deep breath and go okay, and then
you've got to grade them. And that's the other things
trading the props in the risk room. You know, you listen,
(10:41):
we all know the most bet on prop every single year.
I'll let you guess which one do you think it is? Well,
I know last year was Patrick Mahomes rushing over yards,
but I don't know. It could be the coin flip
for all I know last year, last year, it is
the coin flip bird, That's what I mean. You know
what you're doing, like, that's what I'm talking about. It's
the coin flip. And here's what's interesting. Game. You have
(11:03):
to cut you off. You talk about grating. To my understanding,
Once the coin flip is in, you grade those tickets immediately,
people go catch your tickets and they go they go
bet Moore during the game if you can, if you're
an efficient book and you've got an efficient crew, that's
one what you do. And I'll never forget a few
years ago, you know, the biggest bet I ever saw
(11:25):
on the coin toss in all of my time in
the book share in Vegas was a fifty dime bet
on the coin flip. It was fifty dimes and fifty
flat because you didn't want to lay the one oh
two that we were offering. He just wanted fifty flat. Okay,
fair enough, and grated it. You know, the coin flips
and the guys in the rooms it heads, is it tails,
and it heads as it tails, and that its tails,
(11:46):
all right, great? It grated. Uh, we're stuck thirty eight times.
You're stuck thirty eight times. Before they even walk on
the field. And it's fun because every top like that,
every one the guys out. You know, if the boss
is in the room, he wants to know, all right,
how much was that one worse? And you and it's
just like a ticker and you know, first past incomplete
(12:09):
or complete. You watch him drop back and he throws
it incomplete. Oh good, that was worth eight team times good.
All right, We've got some of the coin toss money back.
And you go along like that. It's a really fun
unique day in the sports book of all the days
of the year. Talking with Dave Sheripin, longtime sports book
operator here in Las Vegas, CG Technology Candid Gaming used
(12:31):
to see him over at t M. Dave, Before I
let you run, I want you to create a couple
of props that are uh that I know for a
fact a couple of professional betters I know have already
fired on them. The Chiefs under three and a half punts,
because I mean, let's face it, the last five games
that you know, Kansas Cities pun or Dustin Colquitt has
been like the Maytag repair man. Plus Reed likes to
(12:54):
go for it on fourth down. Do you agree with
that play. I actually thought the numbers should be two
and a half. So you've got three and a half. Yeah,
if you've got three and a half, m I figured
one each half is what I came with, you know,
when I looked at it. So three and a half
is a great number. And I think that one is
one of the best ones that I've heard yet. So yes,
(13:15):
I like that one. The other one, Dave, will there
be a roughing the passer penalty? No? Minus one twenty?
We all know there are a fewer penalties in the
Super Bowl anyway, and no one wants to be the
guy who cheaps outs Brady and you can't get them home.
So I think that to no play. What do you think? Wow?
I don't know about making plays on the official calls
(13:38):
because the listen, the game has not officiated anything close
to what we know it was, and it's even changed
in the past, like two years. It seems very flag happy.
And yes, there's less calls in the playoffs, but you
can guarantee if a guy's face, you know, if he
touches Brady's face masks by accident, dropping a pass or
(13:58):
point going to block a point. It seems like that
would be one that they would be willing to throw. So,
I mean, the price isn't bad, but I would be
leary of that one. I I think that's too close
to call. And if I'm asked to be on a
side there, I think I would rather have the yes.
All right, Dave, Look, I apologize. We had a technical difficulty,
(14:20):
so got to you late. Let's get you on and
get in a few weeks as we get towards March Madness. Dave,
all right, hey, man, you know I'm only a phone
call away. Anytime you need me to come, I'll be
on the show. If you need me to stay tonight,
I can do that too. So whatever you need to do,
I'm here for you. Be back in touch shortly. Dave,
thanks so much, really appreciate you. Man. That is Dave
(14:41):
sharpan longtime sports book director here in Las Vegas. CG Technologies,
CANNERD Gaming knows this stuff. Good Pittsburgh guy, a lot
of fun to hang around with. Up next, we're gonna
have another great guest. Daron Torres is our college basketball
hoops guru. And there's a lot of storylines for me. Now,
by the way, I haven't forgotten, believe me. We are
(15:02):
going to get to Matt Stafford, and we are going
to get to the origin and story behind profits and
some other profits you're gonna want to know about. We
get a lot of things to get to tonight. I'm
Bernie Freddo coming to you alive from the Farmer's Insurance
Fox Sports Radio Studios. This is the pregame show you
always wanted, So don't go away. You're listening to Straight
out of Vegas, the Great Bernie Frido. Folks. We are
(15:26):
back on Straight out of Vegas, the pregame show you
always wanted. I'm Bernie Freddo, come to you alive from
the Farmer's Insurance Fox Sports Radio Studios. Called one day
eight farmers to switch and you could save a bundle
on your car insurance. All right, let's welcome in a gentleman.
Hear him every Saturday night eight to eleven with Arnie Spanier.
He's our college basketball guru here at Fox Sports Radio.
(15:49):
Say hello to Aaron Torus. Aaron, how worry you, buddy? Bernie?
Just nice to uh to be on air with a
real professional tonight. So thank you for having me. I
appreciate thanks for coming on there. Look, I want to
dive right in with the elephant of the room. Gonzaga
won again. The ninety of now won fourteen in a
row by double digits. They're actually drawing comparisons to the
U n LVAM. I don't know if I believe that,
(16:12):
but be there as it made. Do you expect him
to go all the way and finish the job? And
if not, who can trip them up? So I think
they'll enter the n c A Tournament undefeated. And there's
actually a few reasons why. Um you know. One, they're
there significantly better than every team in their conference, the WCC.
There have been years past where there is a second
legitimate team in that conference, including last year where I
(16:35):
think b y U, had there been an n c
A tournament, could have been a real threat to make
a real deep run. B y U is good this year,
but if you watch them today, they needed a couple
overtimes to be Pacific. And so you look at the conference,
uh there, there's just nobody that's gonna even be competitive
with them. And I would add on top of this,
and I know we're gonna get to it in a minute.
I'm not sold Gonzaga is gonna play in a conference
(16:57):
Tournament this year. So yeah, yeah, you add those two
factors in, I think they will enter the n c
A Tournament undefeated. We can get into some other variables.
I don't even know if they're the best team in
the country. I really like the way Baylor is playing
right now. They're an incredible juggernaut, and I think that
they're defeating I don't want to say definitively, but I
feel very confident they're going to enter the n c
A Tournament undefeated. Alright, fair enough, and then anything can
(17:19):
happen there. It's pretty hard to win six in a row.
But let's let's not bury the lead here, because one
of the topics that emerge last week was this conference
tournament situation, and now some schools are seriously considering opting out.
What are your thoughts on this. I think it is
probably the single biggest story among people that work in
(17:41):
college basketball that I don't believe has really gone mainstream yet. Um.
I think conference tournaments are gonna get played. They mean
too much money to too many conferences, to too many
TV networks, all that kind of stuff, and the big
conferences certainly are incentivized to play those conference tournaments because
say a conference like the Big Ten that might have
(18:01):
four or five teams on the bubble. You obviously want
to put as many teams as possible in position to
make the n A tournament where you can make real
money by getting teams in and having them win games there.
Where it gets complicated, though, is a couple of places
you think about the teams that are definitively not only
in the n c A tournament but comfortable with their
seating all that kind of stuff. Is it really worth
(18:23):
the risk of going to a conference tournament, uh, potentially
getting infected with the virus, having players potentially missed time
in the n c A tournament to play what is
ultimately a meaningless conference tournament. Now, I don't think that
applies to uh, say a North Carolina who's not very
good this year, do Kansas whoever? But you talk about Gonzaga,
(18:44):
is there really any benefit to them going to the
w CC tournament and potentially risking players getting the virus?
For Baylor in the Big Twelve, I'll take it a
step further, Briney, this is something I don't think a
lot of people realize. The n c A has put
in all kinds of crazy rules UH for travel and
safety protocol in the n c A tournament this season.
(19:05):
And I bring that up because one of the rules
is when you're eliminated from your conference tournament, you have
to stay at the conference tournament site until it's time
to travel to the n c A tournament. What does
that mean Baylor goes to the Big Twelve Tournament, they
lose on Thursday, they gotta sit around a hotel in
Texas or wherever I think Kansas City is where it's played,
(19:26):
and they can't leave to go back to campus until
it's time to leave for indies. So there are so
many variables and I just think it's a fascinating topic.
It's gonna lead to a lot of kind of big
picture conversations about the validity of the field and all
that kind of stuff, because is it a valid field
if Gonzaga doesn't even compete for their conference championship, which
would allow UH somebody else to get the automatic bids,
(19:49):
same with any of these teams that opt out. And
I think there's conferences like the w c C, like
the A A C where Houston is running away with it,
that are actually incentivized to tell their best teams to
stay home. So it's a fascinating topic that's really going
to take on a layer, a bunch of layers here,
I believe over the next couple of weeks talking with
Aaron Torrance Aeron Torris, Sorry about that there, buddy, last
(20:10):
time I ran a tongue from that place. I will
tell you I have always believed if I ever need
a pseudonym in a hotel, I'll go with Aaron Torrance
because because I'm just like, it's close enough where if
I forget that I used it as a pseudonym, I'll remember.
But it is tours. Yeah right, Yeah, at least I
didn't say Aaron el segundo or something like yeah, uh,
we are talking with Aaron Tourist, Fox Sports Radio, GURUF
(20:33):
College Hoops Aeron. I don't want to spend much time
in this, but since I mean it's been since Moby
Dick was a minnow, since the blue bloods like uh,
you know, um Kentucky, North Carolina Duke. Uh, they're not
even in the top twenty. What do you you know,
what do you make of at what I make of
(20:53):
it is, Bernie, is you know what I'll say is
this is that you know there are a lot of
things that that can be be true thro Um, and
I understand the frustration of a Kentucky fan, of a
Duke fan, even if a Kansas fan, who I don't
think people realize has lost four their last five, even
though they'll probably make the n c A Tournament. And
what I think has happened this year is very simple,
is that I don't believe that there are any programs
(21:16):
that were hurt more by the very nature of this
particular off season than Kentucky and Duke. And what I
mean by that is this offseason was not normal for
people who don't know the college basketball off season. Players
can come back to campus, you know, sometime around June one,
right after Memorial Day. They can practice with the coaches
a couple of times a week, and then they really
(21:36):
ramp things up when school starts in the fall. You
obviously get a few exhibition games, those out of conference
games to really load up and get comfortable. Well, you
take all of that off the table for a school
like Kentucky or a school like Duke, which is essentially
flipping over its roster year after year and always relying
on freshman and I think it really hurts them. Uh,
(21:57):
Duke seems to be finally figuring it out, but you
look at can Kucky. I mean, I don't think it's
gonna get better. But it's also in large part because
the first uh, they haven't the first two games of
the season. After that, they have played only Power Conference teams.
And that was a team that needed Eastern Kentucky, Western Illinois,
(22:17):
Southern Louisiana, you know, named the Directional School. They needed
a few of those teams on the schedule. They didn't
get it. I think it's hurt Kentucky and Duke more
than anything. But you know, you add in the fact
Kansas isn't playing that well. North Carolina is not playing
that well. Michigan State, I know you you're gonna talk
about Michigan once I get off with you here. Uh,
Michigan State's another one that I think they're probably on
the outside looking in if the tournament was decided today.
(22:39):
But when you lose, when you lose to Rutgers by thirty,
you know we're living in bizarre world. Ookay, we're wrapping
it up with Aaron tourists, but Aaron before we do, Look, buddy,
they're gonna have a March Manness Tournament this year because
they have to recoup some of the money they lost.
But I understand it's gonna be in a bubble in Indianapolis.
What can you tell us about that? Yeah, they wouldn't
like the word use of the word bubble because by technicality,
(23:02):
players are gonna be kind of bouncing all over the
Greater Indiana Indianapolis area. But it is a bubble, Burnie,
So they're gonna tell you it's not a bubble, but
it is. Um. Essentially, the entire tournament is going to
be played in and around Indianapolis. Now that will include Bloomington,
which is where University of Indiana is, or Indiana University
West Lafayette where Purdue is. But the idea is kind
(23:23):
of get everyone in one place. Um, you can control
the environment. UM. You know, everyone is on the same page.
And it just never made sense in this pandemic, in
this world that we live in to have teams go
into three different sites in three different weekends, let alone
a conference tournament where you're talking about four different sites
in four different weekends. So teams are literally they're gonna
(23:44):
get there about four or five days before the tournament starts.
I guess even a little bit earlier, because you need
seven straight days of negative tests before you you're allowed
to play. Um and you're gonna get there and you're
gonna hang out in a hotel and you're gonna lay low. Uh.
And then we're gonna play the tournament. And the schedule
is gonna be little bit different this year. It's gonna
start a day or two later. There's gonna be a
(24:04):
different timing in terms of the structure of the tournament.
But everything's gonna be in Indianapolis, all six D eight
teams until we get to the final one early April.
All right, Aaron, let's do this. Let's get you back
on March four, this selection Sunday. Let's get you on
before then. It'll be here before you know it. We
can chop things up then. I can't wait to see
what the scene is like at that point. Thank you
for having me, Bernie. All right, that's Aaron Taurus, our
(24:26):
Fox Sports radio guru. When it comes to college hoops,
you hear them every Saturday night with Arnie Spanier. For
me to eleven a very lively show. Come up, we're
gonna have Sleepy's Best Bet, and yes we are going
to dive in to this Matt Stafford situation, and I'll
give you my thoughts. I only cover the lines in
Detroit for the better part of ten years, so I
(24:48):
might have a thing or two to say about that.
But first let's go to the man we affectionately refer
to him as the Wizard of Westwood. It's Brian Fairley
with a latist. Well, thank you so much, Ernie, and yes,
U c l A Basketball got the win on Saturday,
but you know that's not necessarily the lead. It has
to be Matt Stafford. Moving to the l A Rams,
(25:09):
there's a big trade that was announced on Saturday night,
and you've seen many reports out there as the Rams
will give up a first round draft pick in one,
along with one in three, and a third round pick
in one along with Jared Goff four the aforementioned Matt Stafford.
L A, by the way, does not have a first
(25:31):
round selection until twenty four. In the NBA, the Lakers
tap dance passed the Celtics five Anthony Davis twenty seven points,
fourteen rebounds. Boston's Marcus Smart strained his left calf and
according to reports, he will have an m R I
on Sunday, the Warriors bottle up the Pistons one eighteen
to ninety one. Steph Curry twenty eight points. He canned
(25:53):
six three pointers. The Sun strangled the Mavericks one one
oh five. Chris Paul turned it on in the fourth quarters,
scoring sixteen of his twenty seven points in that final period.
How about Dallas losing four games in a row. Meanwhile,
the Rockets have won five games in a row after
they take down the Belicans and earlier on Saturday, Trailblazers
(26:16):
Damian Lillard had the ball in his hands down a
couple looking to win the game against the Bulls. It's
Damian Lillard with the ball down to two seconds left,
free for the win. Blazers. Damian Lillard the fanaway three
at the buzzer and the Blazers winning one three, one two.
(26:38):
It's a Rich City winner, Trail Blazers Radio Network. As
the Blazers were down by five with eight point nine
seconds left and Lillard rattles off two threes in that period.
Let's get back to Bernie Frado his sports gambling pixars
effective as counting cards or maybe the band counting that
(27:00):
that too? All right? Thanks Brian the silver tongue devil.
Brian Finley. All right, another silver tongue devil. Sleepy, He's
up with another best bet. It's a prop bet. Pay
close attention to this one having to do with the
running back. You think something of the radar, But I'm
gonna tell you why he's not. Let's give it a listen.
All right, Bernie, here we go NFL Super Bowl fifty
(27:20):
best bet prop bet. Now, I'm gonna go ahead, and
I'm gonna give you Darryl Williams longest rushing attempt over
eight and a half rushing yards. Now. Williams went over
this current number four times during the regular season, and
most notably twice in the two playoff games for the Chiefs.
He had a long of thirteen against Buffalo and a
long of sixteen against Cleveland. Here's my big factor for
(27:43):
this game here, Bernie. Now, I think that the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers, you know that they have a good enough
rush defense where they might actually d commit from that
because of the passing attack from the Kansas City Chiefs.
We remember what the Chiefs did you know to this
Buccaneers defense not too long ago where Patrick Mahomes went
off for you know, four hundred and sixties some yards,
(28:03):
and Tyree Hill had you know, some historic record first
half where he was doing somersaults in the end zone.
It's that Chiefs passing attack that the Buccaneers need to
really go ahead and focus on in this game or
it could be trouble. Therefore, I don't believe that Williams
is going to get a whole lot of attention in
this game. Now. I understand that Levian Bell is coming back,
Clyde Edwards Hilaire's coming back, but I'm not really too
(28:25):
concerned with those players, being that Williams got the bulk
of the carries in the playoffs. Also take note to
this that when Tampa Bay played the Chiefs this year,
Williams didn't even play in that game. So that Buccaneers
defense maybe they don't pay a whole lot of attention
to Williams thinking he's that much of a threat. And
I can tell you one thing about the Buccaneers defense
when they played the Chiefs the first time. Levian Bell
(28:47):
played in that game and had a rush for ten
yards or more. Clyde Edwards Hilaire played in that game
and he had a rush for ten yards or more. Also,
quarterback Patrick Mahomes had a rush in that game four
ten yards or more. Therefore, I'm gonna go ahead, and
I'm gonna play Darryll Williams to go ahead and have
a rush of nine yards or more to cash that ticket, Bernie,
(29:09):
And that's gonna be my Super Bowl best bet prop
bet Alright, So there you have. It's Sleepy's been rock
solid all year on prop bets and or best bets,
and most of them have been prop bets. And here's
what's distinctive about that call. Last year, Damian Williams broke
off a thirty eight yard run to give Kansas City
(29:29):
a thirty one twenty lead for the final score in
the game and the Chiefs victory over the Forts last year.
So that might end up being a really good proper play.
Later on on the show, I'm gonna go into a
great detail on prop plays, the history of pop plays,
the origin, how they started, and what they've grown to.
(29:49):
Now some of the numbers will blow your Ryan, But
I want to talk about this Matt Stafford thing. Obviously,
you heard Steve Disiger broke the news here in Fox
Sports Radio a couple of hour. As you go, look
Stafford comes to the Rams, and clearly, if they don't
go to a super Bowl or win a super Bowl
with Stafford, then this is a bust. It's there's there's
(30:09):
nothing in between. They've already been to a super Bowl
with Jared Goff and they want a playoff game this
year and look good doing it. So Stafford has to
be that X factor. We all know I covered the
Lions for many years in Detroit. Don't need to go
down that road to Lions Preme postgame show. Stafford plays hard,
he plays hurt. I respect him. He's no stranger to
(30:30):
the highlight reel. He does everything but win. You would
think once in twelve years that he would put this
organization on his back. They've been to the playoffs three times,
They've had Pro Bowlers, They've had guys leave the organization
to do well elsewhere. You have to have been there
in Detroit. You have to have been at Ford Field
to see what I see and see what happens when
(30:53):
you get to those critical moments in the game where
you define the moment or the moment that finds you.
Stafford clearly to is a guy you might win with,
but you're not going to win because of if I
had a nickel for every time Stafford rolled right, tried
to extend to play when there was nothing there, threw
a floater across his body, right into a sea of
(31:16):
hands to kill a drive, I'd be rich. Or watching
him fumble on the goal line, or watching him, you know, uh,
fight out of the pocket to to try to live
another day and make a hero play, or not to
live another day, to try to make a glory play.
And he doesn't secure the ball, carrying it like a
loaf of bread to get stripped out of his hands. Look,
(31:38):
Matt Stafford will throw for a lot of yards, He'll
do a lot of things, but most of the time
he did it, it it was meaningless. They were getting beat
late in the fourth quarter, they were getting beat in
the second half, and many times they had those deficits
on turnovers. He called look Stafford broken. In two thousand nine,
he was the number one draft pick. He went to
Highland Park High School in Dallas, the same high school
(31:58):
that Bobby Lane went to. Lobby Langue was the starting
quarterback in nineteen fifty seven, when the last time the
Lions won a championship, long before the Super Bowl January six,
Lions won their only playoff games since nineteen fifty seven
quarterback Dave Craig, and they were outstanding. Those were decent
Lions teams. So the bottom line is this, it's either
(32:19):
gonna work or it's not. And before I turn it
over the crew, I'm gonna let these guys wain in
because they will live it in l a And Chris
is from Detroit. Also, you might have a little bit
different take than I've got. The Lions are gonna eat
seventeen point three million and dead cat money so they
can compete against Matt Stafford. Yes, the Rams play the
Lions this year. Get your popcorn ready, right, let's turn
(32:40):
it over to the crew. Let's start with Actually, let's
start with Ryan Burschner because Ryan hosts a show with
Bow Benson called Swin Shift, And Ryan, are you gonna
have Matt Stafford on your show anytime soon? He's more
than welcome to come on. He absolutely good. He can
come on and talk about Clayton Kershaw. That'll be it'll
be a good time. You know, they went to high
school to get right Dallas, that's Carlan Park High School.
(33:01):
All right, what are your thoughts? You're a Rams fan.
I I think I think this is a great move
for the Rams. I I their championship window is right now,
they know that, and out of quarterbacks that were available,
really the only better option would be Deshaun Watson. And
unless the Texans wanted a first rounder in like one,
I don't think the Rams really had the the more
immediate draft capital to be able to get Watson. So
(33:24):
I think this was the best option that was realistic
for them, and I think it's a very good move.
I'm excited. All right, you're losing your defensive coordinator, though
that's got to be a little that's a conversation with
you day, all right, Chris Profett, the Detroit native. I
know you were a big Stafford fan, and I respect that.
I don't dislike Stafford. I just don't want to beat
a foxhold with him. What are your thoughts? So I
would say this because I do. I have been covering
(33:46):
the Lions now since at least and I've been doing
quite a bit up there. I will say of Stafford
in recent years, he protects the ball a lot better.
I mean, this guy is now on an NFL leaderless
or fourth quarter comeback, and we'll say, maybe he dug
a few of those whom self, But I mean, those
numbers are there, those stats are Their quarterbacks are not
the only piece on the field. They don't play defense.
(34:07):
They are, if nothing else, an engine they have to
put in the right spots. He's never had a run
game in Detroit, as much as they've tried to put
a run game around him. Only now recently do they
have something in DeAndre Swift. I think in l A
he'll look phenomenal. I think for the Lions, they got
a lot back. I don't think they'll be competing much
this year. They're gonna eat this salary with with Jared Goff,
(34:28):
they're gonna have a season more like the Jets are Jaguars.
But then they'll be able to get out from underneath Golf.
Then they have enough draft capital, they have flexibility for
the next few drafts. They can rebuild their team however
they want now that Stafford is gone. Alright, fair enough,
Chris covered a lot of ground. I would say this,
the Lions won five games this year with Stafford. I
bet you they win more games next year, and I
(34:49):
bet you they improve incrementally better than the Rams improve
over the season. They had last year. All right, let's
go to Brian Finley. Bryan, what are your thoughts. I
I think that this is a high risk situation for
the Rams because they are gonna go what is it now, guys, seven,
They're gonna make it eight years or something around that
where they will not have a first round draft picks.
(35:11):
So there's a whole lot of pressure on Stafford to
stay healthy. And Chris would know better than anyone that
Stafford at times has been injury prone. So you're really
putting a lot of pressure on this quarterback who has
never really shown that he is the kind of leader
that can take his team into the playoffs. What she's done, yes,
but they haven't won in the playoffs. So there's no
(35:34):
concerns with me as far as his skill set in
his talent. But what's yet to be seen, Bernie, is
his leadership qualities under pressure, playing meaningful games late into
November and December when he got the Seahawks and the
Cardinals rise. That's right, and he's never done well against
the Seahawks or the Cardinals, yes, or the Niners or
the Rams for that matter. Good stuff, Brian, and by
(35:57):
the way, not for nothing, He's eight and fifty five
against teams who finished above five again once in twelve years.
You think you could elevate a franchise. And let me
just set the record straight, because when Stafford was a
rookie and oh nine he landed funny on his shoulder,
wasn't his fault and dislocated his shoulder and he missed
the rest of nine. Then in week one he had
the same fluke injury and they called him a China doll.
(36:19):
That's not fair. The guy is tougher than a two
dollar steak. He's tough. I don't question his his you know,
ability to compete. I don't question his huddle, presence, is command,
any of those things. It's just that when it matters most,
he's Eddie Haskell. Okay, He's the guy who, Hey, take
my car to the car wash. He brings it back,
fills it up, vacuums it out, and all of a
(36:40):
sudden you go look at the driver's side. There, un
there's a dent. He said, where'd that come from? That's
Matt Stafford. I'm telling you, ran Fans, I'm not gonna
eat my words. A year ago, I was talking about
how Tom Brady would win ten games and Bill Belichick
would win less than eight? How'd that work out? If
I'm wrong next December, I'll own up to it. I
don't think I'm going to be all right. Coming up,
I want to talk about the Super Bowl prop betting,
(37:02):
and it's taken out of life of its own. There's
a terrific backstory there. There's a lot to cover and oh,
by the way, there's only choices this year. Unincredible. I'm
Bernie Fratto. We're coming to you live from the Farmers
Insurance Fox Sports Radio Studios, and this is the pregame
show you always wanted to. Don't go away if you're
listening to Straight out of Vegas, one of the best
(37:27):
in the business, Bernie Fratto. They are back on Straight
out of Vegas, the pregame show you always wanted. I'm
Bernie Frattock. Come do you live from the Farmers Insurance
Fox Sports Radio Studios. Call Farmers today for a quote.
All right, it's already hot and heavy. People are betting
props like you can't believe. They'll probably be almost fifty
(37:48):
million dollars wagered here in Las Vegas on props this
you know, Super Bowl fifty five all by themselves. And
it's sort of interesting how this whole thing started, because
you remember Super Bowl twenty when the Bears killed the
New England Patriots. Prior to that game, there was never
such a thing called props. Well, they put up one
(38:10):
prop refrigerator perie a hundred one to score touchdown, and
it hit and it was often running and by or
over thirty prop bets. And then a few years later
the Imperial Palace, an obscure book property that's no longer
open here in Vegas, they rolled out a hundred profits
and they became the go to for profits and the
bookmakers realized that this was really something that would catch on,
(38:33):
and it did. And there's two types of props. There
are player props, like, for instance, Tom Brady, will he
pass for more or less than three passing yards minus
one tenant William Hill. So you're basically predicting that if
he throws less than that, you bet the ender, or
more you bet you over, you get the you get
the picture. Chris Godwin seventy four receiving yards. If you
(38:55):
want to predict it goes over you, you get the picture.
Game props are also a way to bet and those
are based on stats or occurrences that happened throughout the game,
such as the result of the opening kickoff, or when
the first play of the game will be over under,
the amount of turnovers by both teams. Good example is
last year Super Bowl fifty four, there was an overunder
(39:15):
for the longest field goal forty seven and a half yards.
The Niners kicked a forty two yard in the third
quarter and that was the longest one. So if you
played the under, you got it. This year, there are
twelve ways to bet props and I'll get you. We're
gonna go next week. Steve Fessig and I are going
to do a full show and we're gonna go over
all this and it's gonna be a lot of fun.
But you're gonna have all kinds of chances, like well,
(39:37):
Tom Brady throw three picks that is six to one,
and we're not gonna go through all twelve, but we're
gonna give you some best bets next week. I want
to thank Aaron Torres and Dave Sherriff Pan for coming on.
I want to thank my crew as well, Brian Finley,
Chris Perfett, and Ryan Burr Singer for all your hard
work back in Los Angeles. That's gonna do it for
this week's edition is straight out of Vegas. I'm Bernie Fratto.
(39:58):
Next up the man from Nashville who bring just Strong.
It's time for the Jason Martin Show. Keep it locked
right here on Fox Sports radioa
Fox Sports Radio News
Host
Jonas Knox
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