John MacDonald: Poll of Polls no comfort for National

Labour leader Chris Hipkins won’t be loving the news out today that the coalition government is on its way to a second term, but Christopher Luxon shouldn’t be either.  

According to the NZ Herald - Motu research Poll of Polls, there is an 88.3 percent chance of the coalition getting back in this year. 

Election results from the last 12 years have been run through 4,000 simulations, and it’s shown there is nearly a 90 percent chance of us having the same government as the one we have now after November.  

The Poll of Polls says National would have 37 seats - down 12. That’s 12 current National MPs without a job after November. But not just that, National losing 12 seats makes it even more dependent on Winston Peters. 

Which, given what Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis have been saying about NZ First these last few weeks, is the last thing they want. 

They might bang on about strong, stable government but the last thing National wants come November is to have to go into coalition talks again with Winston Peters. And that’s why Christopher Luxon will be unhappy about these numbers today. 

And, if he’s not unhappy, he should be. 

Because, according to this new Poll of Polls, NZ First would have twice as many seats - going from eight to 16. Which you won’t hear me poo-pooing because I think it’s a very real prospect.  

Not just because of what's happening in Australia with the One Nation party, and with Nigel Farage’s reform party in the UK, but also because people here are so disillusioned with Labour and National.  

Nevertheless, going from 8 MPs to sixteen MPs would be amazing for NZ First, wouldn’t it?  

Act would have 10 seats - down one from 11, so it would be NZ First saving the current coalition’s bacon, which National will just hate.  

All up, the National/ACT/NZ First combo would have 63 seats. That’s assuming, of course, that NZ First would stick with National and ACT. 

On the other side, Labour would have 43 seats - making it the largest party in parliament - up from 34 - but still not in Government. 

The Greens would have 11, down from 15, and Te Pāti Māori would have three seats, down from five.  

So, all up, the left would have 57 seats, and Labour would be sitting there, the largest party in parliament, but back in opposition for another three years.  

So, what do we make of that? 

I think it’s pretty much inevitable. It doesn’t excite me, but there’s no way Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori deserve to be in government. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Canterbury Mornings podcast with John McDonald
from Newstalk ZB.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Labor leader Chris Hopkins won't be loving the news out
today that the Coalition government is on its way pretty
much comfortably to a second term. He won't be happy,
But Christopher Luxen shouldn't be happy either. I'll turn you
one in a second. So, according to the New Zealand Herald,
more to research poll of polls, there is an eighty

(00:36):
eight point three percent chance of the Coalition getting back
in this year eighty eight point three percent. Now how
this works as the poll of polls what it does.
They take election results from the last twelve years and
run them through four thousand election simulations. And after all
of that, I've worked out that there's nearly a ninety

(00:58):
percent chance of us having the same government as one
we have now after the election in November. So the
here of the lovers and it is I say Hepkin
shouldn't be happy, and well he won't be happy, and
Luxon shouldn't be either. So here are the numbers. The
Pole of Poles says National would have thirty seven seats

(01:18):
down twelve. That's twelve current National MPs without a job
after November. After November, but not just that, National losing
twelve seats makes it even more dependent on Winston Peters, which,
given what Christopher Luxen and Nichola Willis have been saying
about New Zealand First these last few weeks, that's the

(01:38):
last thing they want, eh. You know. They might bang
on about strong stable government and all of that, but
the last thing National wants come November is to have
to go into coalition talks again with Winston Peters. And
that is why Christopher Luxon will also be unhappy with
these numbers. And it is not unhappy he Bloomable should

(01:59):
be because according to this new pole of poles, New
Zealand First would have as many seats as it has now,
going from eight to sixteen, which, by the way, you
won't hear me pooh poohing that, because I think that
is a very real prospect, not just because of what's
happening in Australia with the One Nation Party at the

(02:20):
weekend and with Nigel Farage's Reform Party in the UK,
but also because people here are so disillusioned with Labor
and National nevertheless, going from eight MPs to sixteen that
would be amazing for New Zealand First, wouldn't it be unbelievable? ACT?
By the way, according to the Poll of Polls, ACT

(02:43):
would have ten MPs, down one from eleven, So it's
New Zealand First saving the current coalitions Bacon which National
will just hate. But all up the National Act in
New Zealand First combo would have sixty three seats. That's
assuming of course, that New Zealand First would stick with
National and ACT. On the other side, Labour would have

(03:06):
forty three seats, which would make it the largest party
in Parliament, up from thirty four, but still not in government.
The Greens, by the way, we'd have eleven, down from fifteen,
and to party Mary would have three seats down from five.
So all up the Left would have fifty seven and
their Labor would be, according to the poll of Polls,

(03:28):
the largest party in Parliament, but back in opposition for
another three years. So what do we make of that? Well,
let me answer the questions I'm going to ask you,
then you can give me your answers. So question one,
how do you feel about a nearly ninety percent chance
of us having the same government after November's election? My answer,
I think it's pretty much inevitable. Doesn't excite me necessarily,

(03:51):
might excite you. It doesn't necessarily excite me, but there
is no way labor the Greens and to party Mary
deserved to be in government. Question two, do you think
it's realistic that New Zealand First could double its number
of MPs from eight to sixteen? My answer yes, I do,
and I reckon that would be worse for Christopher Luxen

(04:12):
than losing twelve zmps in the process. So they're my answers.
What are yours? What's your reaction to these? Poll of
poll numbers out today.

Speaker 1 (04:22):
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