John MacDonald: Reserve Bank inquiry not political? Pull the other one

Do you think there is anyone in New Zealand who believes the Government’s line that it’s a coincidence the findings of its inquiry into the Reserve Bank’s COVID-19 response will be released a few weeks before the election?

As the NZ Herald’s political editor, Thomas Coughlan, puts it: the inquiry will ask the right questions at the wrong time.

Because this has election campaigning written all over it. 

The official line is that the review is being done to “identify any lessons New Zealand could learn to improve the response to future major events”. 

But how credible is that, given the findings of the inquiry will be released just weeks before this year’s election?

Not very, according to Labour leader Chris Hipkins, who’s saying today: “If this is a genuinely independent review that provides some lessons learned, it could be useful. But doing it right in the middle of an election campaign suggests that’s not Nicola Willis’ primary motivation here.”

And he’s spot on. Because it’s not.

The Government’s primary motivation is to spend half a million dollars of taxpayer money on a report that is going to come out at the pointy end of the election campaign, which will do one of two things.

It will either rip into the Reserve Bank in the way the Government hopes it will. So it can then say to voters, “do you really want the last lot who let the Reserve Bank get away with this trainwreck back in charge of the economy?” 

Or, the report will be a bit soft -  not quite what the Government wants - but will still give it bragging rights about looking to learn from past mistakes. Unlike Labour, who it will accuse of not having the guts to front up to the COVID-19 Royal Commission of Inquiry.

So it’s going to be a win-win - especially for National.

I think this would have way more credibility if the Government had come out yesterday and said it was launching the inquiry but the findings wouldn’t be released until after the election. 

For the benefit of whoever the government of the day is after the election.

If it had done that, I would have had no problem with the timing.

Instead, this inquiry - which, in itself, is fully justified - is at risk of looking like nothing more than taxpayers coughing-up for the National Party’s election campaign.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Canterbury Mornings podcast with John McDonald
from News Talk ZB.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Do you reckon there is anyone in New Zealand, anyone
in New Zealand who believes this line from the Finance
Minister Nichol willis that the timing of the government's inquiry
into the Reserve Bank's COVID response is just coincidental, coincidental,
and that the findings are going to be released just
weeks before this year's election. Jeff Mortlock, he's a former

(00:38):
special advisor to the Reserve Bank. He's not quite smelling
a rat like I am, but he's been lobbying the
Finance Minister for a couple of years on this and
he doesn't think the timing's great either.

Speaker 1 (00:49):
I think it should have been done earlier. Have taken
too long to get on to it. I don't read
politics into it. There might be, but it should have
been done earlier.

Speaker 2 (00:58):
I think, oh there is politics in it mate. As
The New Zealand Herald's political editor Thomas Coglan puts it today,
the inquiry will ask the right questions at the wrong time.
Brilliant because this has election campaign written all over it.
Now the official line is that the review is being
done to quote identify any lessons New Zealand could learn

(01:21):
to improve the response to future major events end of quote. Yep.
But how credible is that giving the findings will be
released just weeks before this year's election. Not very if
at all, according to labor ledder Chrissipkins, who's saying today
quote If this is a genuinely independent review that provides

(01:45):
some lessons learned, it could be useful. But doing it
right in the middle of an election campaign suggests that's
not Nikola Willis's primary motivation here any spot on, because
it's not. The government's primary motivation is to spend half
a million dollars of taxpayer money on a report that's
going to come out at the point end of the

(02:05):
election campaign, and it's going to be a report that
does one of two things. Trust me, it will either
rip into the Reserve Bank and the way the government
hopes it will, so it can then say to voters,
do you really want the last lot who let the
Reserve Bank away with this train wreck? You really want
them back in charge of the economy, or it'll be

(02:27):
risted on it not quite what the Government's hoping for,
but we'll still give it bragging rights during the election
campaign about looking to learn from past mistakes. Aren't like
that labor lot. They couldn't even turn up, didn't even
have the guts to front up to the COVID nineteen
Royal Commission of Inquiry. So it's either way, well, whatever
the reports is, it's going to be a win win,

(02:47):
especially for national not that Nikola Willis was admitting that
when she spoke to Mike earlier.

Speaker 3 (02:52):
You appointing very independent experts who are a professor in
monetary policy, people with great experience in reserve banking to
look at did the Reserve Bank get the decisions right?
Could we learn any lessons? I think has fairly standard
stuff for a government to do. My suspicion is it
wouldn't have mattered when we announced this, what the timing is.

(03:17):
The reaction of our political opponents would have been to say, oh,
this is all terrible. You shouldn't be asking these questions.
We should be asking these questions. We should be doing
this process and learning lessons and that is exactly what
we will do.

Speaker 2 (03:30):
Absolutely no argument from me on that front. Great thing
to do. Did the Reserve Bank do the right thing,
printing money and pumping it into the economy. Would you
do it again? All great questions to ask, but do
it now and release the report when you're in the
thick of trying to win an election. Don't think so.
And I think this would have way more credibility if

(03:52):
the government had come up yesterday and said it was
launching the inquiry but the findings wouldn't be released until
after the election for the benefit of whoever the government
of the day is after the election. If it had
done that, I would have had no problem at all
with the timing. But that's not how they're doing it.
And I think this is nothing more than us taxpayers

(04:13):
coughing up for the benefit of the National Party's election campaign.
Is that a use, sir?

Speaker 1 (04:19):
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