John MacDonald: What's the chance of this ceasefire lasting?

Anyone who thinks the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran is going to last the full two weeks is dreaming. 

How many reasons can I give you? Because there are plenty. 

First up, there are these conflicting reports coming through this regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The stretch of water that is the reason why diesel users in this country are paying more for fuel than petrol users. Why Air New Zealand and Jetstar are cancelling the flights. The reason for all sorts of economic carnage. 

The stretch of water that's pretty much been closed since the US and Israel started bombing Iran.   

We’ve got Iran saying that this crucial shipping route is closed because of Israel's large-scale attacks on Lebanon overnight. But we’ve also got the white house saying that’s fake news. 

Iran is also warning that any ships going through the strait without permission will be destroyed. 

So that’s enough on its own to tell you that this isn’t going to last five minutes. 

Israel is another reason why this ceasefire isn’t going to last. 

Without warning, Israel dropped 160 bombs on 100 targets within 10 minutes. The heaviest bombardment on Lebanon since the war began. 

That’s because it sees its campaign to destroy Hezbollah - the Shiite militia backed by Iran - as some sort of side issue.

Which Iran thinks is a load of nonsense and there are concerns that this could be enough for it to pull out of the ceasefire. 

Which I think is looking increasingly likely now that U.S President Donald Trump appears to have sided with Israel on this one. 

Trump initially didn’t comment one way or the other on Israel's claim - but he is now saying that Israel's attacks on Lebanon are “a separate skirmish” and not part of the ceasefire deal. 

What’s more, with Iran apparently holding on tight to the Strait of Hormuz - how kindly do you think trump is going to take to that? 

This is the guy who said on social media a few days ago: “open the f-in’ strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell”. 

And let’s remember why Trump did what he did yesterday, agreeing to this very precarious ceasefire. 

He gave in, not because it would mean victory for the United States - which he is claiming of course - Trump gave in yesterday because of the Strait of Hormuz. 

This ceasefire is nothing to do with regime change and nothing to do with keeping the world safe from any nuclear ambitions Iran might have. 

This ceasefire is about oil and trade and money and the markets. And the heat Donald Trump was feeling about the impact his war is having on the global economy. 

And, if that oil doesn’t start flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again anytime soon then, you can bet your bottom dollar that trump will be ripping up that ceasefire agreement. 

That’s if Iran doesn’t rip it up first. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Canterbury Mornings podcast with John McDonald
from newstalksb.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Anyone who thinks the ceasefire ceasefire agreement between the United
States and Iran is going to last the full two weeks,
Anyone who thinks that they're dreaming? Do you need convincing
of that? I mean, how many reasons going to give you,
because there are plenty. First up, there are these conflicting
reports coming through this morning regarding the Strait of Hormus.

(00:35):
You know, the stretch of water that will us be honest,
not many of us knew too much about until this
war started. The stretch of water that is the reason
why diesel uses in this country are paying more for
fuel than petrol uses, the reason why Nie Zealand and
Jetstar are canceling flights, I mean, the reason for all
sorts of economic carnage. The stretch of water that's pretty

(00:58):
much been closed since the US and Israel started bombing Iran.
And this morning we've got Iran saying that this crucial
shipping route is closed. Why because of Israel's large scale
attacks on Lebanon. Last night overnight the White House I
was saying, oh, that's fake news. You believe who you
want to. Iran is also warning that any ships going

(01:22):
through the Strait without permission will be destroyed. So that's
enough on its own, isn't it to tell you that
this isn't going to last five minutes? I've mentioned Israel already,
but there are another reason why this ceasefire isn't going
to last. Because we've got Benjamin nettin Yaho's saying, oh,
the ceasefire doesn't apply to us. That's why overnight Israel

(01:44):
has been blasting the hell out of Beirut without warning.
Israel dropped one hundred and sixty bombs on one hundred
targets within ten minutes. One hundred and sixty bombs in
ten minutes, the heaviest bombardment on Lebanon since the war began.
That's because it sees its campaign to destroy his Billa,

(02:04):
the shy militia backed by Ara. It sees this as
some sort of side issue Lordie knows why or how,
which Iran, of course thinks is a load of old nonsense.
And there are concerns that this could be enough for
it to pull out of the ceasefire, which I reckons
looking increasingly likely. Now that we've got US President Donald
Trump appearing to have sided with Israel on this part

(02:27):
of it. One report of sand this morning I said
Trump initially didn't comment one way or the other on
Israel's claim about it, you know, Lebanon not being part
of the ceasefire. But he's now saying that Israel's attacks
on Lebanon are quote, a separate skirmish and not part
of the ceasefire deal, which is classic Trump seat of

(02:47):
the pants stuff, isn't it. What's more, with Iran apparently
holding on tight to the strait of a moose, how
kindly do you think Trump's going to take to that?
How kindly do you think he's going to take to that?
Because this is the guy who said on social media
a few days ago, didn't he open the ef and straight,
you're crazy bastards, or you'll belived in hell. And let's

(03:07):
remember why Trump did what he did yesterday agreeing to
this very precarious, wafer thin ceasefire. He gave in not
because it would mean victory for the United States, although
he's claiming that, of course Trump gave in yesterday because
of the strada of for moose. This ceasefire has nothing
to do with regime change, nothing to do with keeping

(03:30):
the world safe from any nuclear ambitions Iran might have.
This ceasefire is about oil and trade and money and
the markets and the heat. Donald Trump was feeling about
the impact his war was having on the global economy.
And if that oil does it start flying through the
strad of hamuse again anytime soon, then you can beat
your bottom dollar that Trump will be ripping up that

(03:52):
ceasefire agreement. That's if, that's if Iran doesn't rip it
up first. So no, I don't see this thing lasting
two weeks at all.

Speaker 1 (04:03):
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