Brigitte Morten: Political commentator on the future of Luxon's leadership

National will struggle to show they are a unified caucus if Prime Minister Christopher Luxon survives a leadership challenge today, political commentator Bridget Morten says. 

“They can’t let this drag on any longer,” Morten told Ryan Bridge. 

She says that if Luxon were to survive, it’ll be difficult for them to demonstrate that this kind of speculation won’t plague them all the way through to Election Day. 

If National and Luxon were voted back into power on November 7, people would also question if he would survive a second term as leader. 

Asked if Luxon’s likely challenger Erica Stanford was too unknown this close to an election, Morten said there were “a lot of really experienced senior ministers who have spent a lot of time around politics and actually delivering”. 

“So I don't think you can say it's a completely unknown quantity. I think a lot of people actually know a lot about these different politicians and what they might look like as leaders.” 

Whether or not the leader changed, National’s MPs needed to stop talking about themselves and start talking about what voters wanted, or risk being a one-term government, Morten said. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So prime ministers and Wellington. The surgeon caucus meeting nine
thirty this morning follows reports of its MPs calling each
other doing the numbers, discussing whether to roll them. So
is he toast? Last week the peam apologized for remarks
about rot Aurora and obviously there's.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
Been a bit of debate about the MMP.

Speaker 1 (00:18):
Coll But we beck our leader.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
You do you have confidence in the Prime minister one
hundred and fifty percent? Here's the man and here's the boss.

Speaker 1 (00:26):
I mean, on what they're doing and what's happening.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
All I know is we've got a meeting tomorrow nine
point thirty and Wellington.

Speaker 1 (00:32):
Bridget more than political commentator with me this morning. Bridget,
good morning, good morning. So what's going to happen today?

Speaker 2 (00:37):
Well, I mean, the number one thing that has to
happen is that they have to emerge from that caucus
meeting with a definative answer on who is going to
be leading this country and who's going to be taken
into the election. They can't let this drag on any longer.

Speaker 1 (00:51):
If Luxon comes back and as leader after the second vote,
can you credibly say yeah, we're back behind our leader.
If you're having two spells in four.

Speaker 2 (01:00):
Months, it's going to be really difficult for them to
demonstrate that they are a unified caucus, and it is
going to be difficult for them to demonstrate that this
kind of speculation is not going to plague them all
the way through to election.

Speaker 1 (01:12):
Dame and beyond right. Sure we might vote national and
elect Luxe and as Prime minister, but will he stayed
prime minister? Those questions too.

Speaker 2 (01:22):
Yeah, absolutely, And I think that's what a number of
MPs are looking down the future. Obviously they all want
to be there for another term, but they're also looking
at what that second term might look like.

Speaker 1 (01:33):
Then there's snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. That
is a possibility if you switch. It's an unknown quantity.
It's looking like Erica Stamford would be at the top
of the ticket, but untested, don't know a lot of
question marks.

Speaker 2 (01:47):
There's a lot of really actually tested I think senior
ministers that have spent a lot of time around politics
and actually delivering. So don't think you can say it's
completely unknown and quantum. I think a lot of people
actually know a lot about these different politicians and what
they might look like as.

Speaker 1 (02:03):
Leaders Bridget, what do you think they should do?

Speaker 2 (02:08):
I think the number one thing they have to do
is stop talking about themselves and get back to actually
talking about what voters want, because regardless of whether they
make a leadership change or not, they're still looking at
the possibility of being a one term government.

Speaker 1 (02:20):
No one knows what's going to happen today because people
who said that they're going to vote one way then
change their mind in the morning of and get nervous.
Everyone's going to the bathroom a lot. What are you
expecting they will do? Like, what is your gut tell you?

Speaker 2 (02:35):
I think it's going to be a really long meeting.
There's no set process for how this has to run out,
so they could go through a number of different ways
of different votes, you know, confidence votes, then choosing to
leadership voters that confidence vote doesn't succeed. So I think
it's going to be a long, long morning, maybe early afternoon.

Speaker 1 (02:55):
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