Eric Crampton: NZ Initiative Senior Economist on Luxon's pre-Budget speech about immigration

An economist says New Zealand is different from Europe and our views on immigration aren't the same. 

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has used a pre-Budget speech in Auckland to promise a "careful" immigration policy that prioritises social cohesion over profit. 

He says failed immigration policies in Europe and North America have stoked a politics of division.  

Eric Crampton —the Chief Economist at the New Zealand Initiative business think tank— told Ryan Bridge 2023 MBIE data suggests most New Zealanders view immigration more positively than Europeans. 

He says Europe is in a very different situation with really "messed up" labour markets. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
PM's pre budget speech operating allowance cut from two point
four to two point one billion, wants cooler heads on
immigration too.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
Failed immigration policies in Europe and North America have also
stoked to politics of division online. Immigration now seems to
be an emerging political issue in New Zealand. Two. Holding
our society together under all of those pressures will be challenging.

Speaker 1 (00:20):
Doctor Eric Crampton, chief economist at the New Zealand Initiative
with me this morning, Good morning, good morning. We'll start
with migration. We don't have both people. We have plain
people and they contribute over and above their fair shire,
don't they.

Speaker 3 (00:34):
That's the New Zealand data. Yeah, so when the Prime
Minister is talking about importing narratives from Europe and North
America and they'm not really applying here, please write about that.
We don't really have any good data yet. On the
other assertions on social cohesion, I expect that they're looking
at their on polling data. Unfortunately, MB puts out a

(00:54):
survey on this every two years, so in alternate years
they survey migrants and they serve a key we around
how immigration is going. They've been doing this for a
long time. The most recent survey was put out last
year twenty twenty five, on twenty twenty four on twenty
twenty three data, so the twenty twenty five data will
come out probably in August twenty six. As of the

(01:17):
twenty twenty three data, New Zealanders were pretty positive about migration,
so seventy two percent said they felt quite or very
positive about migrants, and that was a record high proportion.
Twenty one percent were neutral and five percent had negative views.
There's also being a significant increase in the proportion of
people saying migrants making New Zealand a better place to live.

(01:40):
That rose from forty five percent in twenty seventeen to
fifty seven percent in twenty twenty three, and the proportion
saying that migrants make it a worse place to live
dropped from sixteen percent to thirteen percent. So I'm not
quite sure where this is coming from. We do see
a lot of online action people, some of them from

(02:01):
New Zealand, some of them not from New Zealand, asserting
all kinds of harms from migration. Europe has had some
substantial problems, but Europe has really messed up labor markets.
So to take an example in Sweden, the unemployment rate
for immigrants is about double the overall immigration rate the

(02:22):
unemployment rate in New Zealand. It's not like that. It's
slightly blow.

Speaker 1 (02:26):
Yeah, exactly.

Speaker 3 (02:27):
Now.

Speaker 1 (02:27):
The only thing, the only issue that I see with
immigration is some of the jobs that we are bringing
people in to do. I note that the ACT Party
had to release the other day saying that two and
a half thousand fast food workers have been brought and
there's some thousand beauty therapists. And yet we have almost,
according to the number out the other day, fifteen percent
of young people in this country doing nothing with their lives.

(02:49):
Why are we not getting those young people to do
those jobs instead of bringing labor in.

Speaker 3 (02:54):
Well, it's consider from an employer's perspective, if you've got
someone who's well experienced in the area, and you've got
your facing a minimum weight, you can choose to hire
someone who's not New Zealand experienced but has a lot
of overseas experience, or someone who has no New Zealand
experience or anywhere else experience. You'll probably go for someone
who's got a bit more experienced with the minimum.

Speaker 1 (03:19):
Wage, but in fast food, you know what I mean.

Speaker 3 (03:22):
But sure, yeah, that it is disappointing. Yes, the Act
has been talking about revisiting the the categories for work
shortages more regularly. I'm not quite sure on some of
the mechanics on being able to do this annually because
you'll end up inevitably hitting people who are mid process

(03:45):
in getting employment.

Speaker 2 (03:47):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (03:47):
There were also a few prompt Sorry, there are always
niggles in immigration policy and a few swings in roundabouts.
So one of the ways that the last government found
it easier to a more migration after the borders had
been closed for a really long time was by broadening
access to the Accredited employer program. So more traditionally large

(04:11):
employers with big reputations and a lot at stake had
a pathway for as an accredited employer to bring workers
through when people were screaming out for workers because of
desperate labor shortages when the economy is overheated. They extended
that to a lot of employers that possibly shouldn't have
gotten that. So that's one of the things that could

(04:31):
have been fixed.

Speaker 1 (04:32):
Doctor Eric Crampton, appreciate you Tom this morning, Chief economist
at the New Zealand Initiative for.

Speaker 3 (04:37):
More Familiarly Edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live to news
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