March 9, 2026 • 34 mins
On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast 2025, ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner shares her thoughts on how the New Zealand economy will react to the war in Iran.
A new Westpac report says we need to send more public health procedures to the private system, NZ Private Surgical Hospitals Association CEO Chris Roberts shares his thoughts.
Iran has appointed a new supreme leader, Financial Times Middle East editor Andrew England tells Ryan what we should know about about him.
Plus, Australia Correspondent Donna Demaio has the latest on fuel rations beginning in Western Australia in response to Iran war and hundreds of people evacuated to Darwin in Northern Territory floods, with loads of crocodile sightings.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The issues, the interviews and the insight. Ryan Bridge on
an early edition with one roof love, where you live
news talks.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
It'd be good morning, just gone six after five. We'll
speak to Sharon Zolna before six remains et on oil
rationing of petrol happening in Wa will live across the
Tasman Private hospitals could save the public system. New report
on that this morning, we'll bring it to you and
the Financial Time as Middle East editor on the new
leader of Iran. The agenda Tuesday, the tenth of March.
(00:30):
Great to have your company watching this G seven meeting closely?
Are they going to release some reserves of oil as
the price spikes.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
The longer this goes on, the more likely the potential
for an impact on our economy and impact into the
lives and households of everybody and every business.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
This Iranian women's football team. Trump wants Australia to give
them asylum. They refuse to sing the national anthem at
the Asia Cup on the GCAT.
Speaker 4 (00:56):
He says they will most likely be killed.
Speaker 5 (01:00):
Don't do it, mister Prime minister, give asylum. The US
will take them if you won't.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Everyone loves Rihanna except for the person who's been firing
at her house. This is in Beverly Hills. She was
at home at the time. Police say the suspect, a
woman in her thirties, stopped in a car outside her home,
fired seven shots and then drove away.
Speaker 6 (01:18):
Well, I was just washing dishes in my house and
I heard shots. I was a little shocked. You know,
we don't hear that kind of thing in this neighborhood.
It's pretty quiet.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
No, it's Beverly Hills. No one injured, thankfully. Our suspect
is in police custody.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
Get ahead of the headlines on early edition with Ryan
Bridge and One roof Love where you Live News Talks.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
I'd be seven after five nine nine two the number
to text. So the G seven, the big boys and
girls are having a meeting and they are deciding as
the price of oil had one hundred and twenty dollars
a barrel yesterday. It has come back by the way overnight.
It's looking Last time I checked at around ninety seven
dollars a barrel, but it was up twenty five percent yesterday.
They're looking at releasing some strategic reserves. You know, they're
(02:03):
going to whole bunch that when there's an emergency, when
something goes wrong, they can release it, flood the market
and then hopefully the price comes down. People chill out.
They did this in twenty twenty two when the war
in Ukraine broke out. Iran has been going harder on
the oil fields over the last few days. In fact,
last night the Saudi's intercepted two waves of drone attacks
(02:25):
heading for oil fields. So the Iranians are just they
obviously see the button and they're just pressing it repeatedly, now,
aren't they, Because they know what hurts the rest of
the world, and it is the price of oil. So
you've got this G seven meeting happening. And the reason
that the price of oil came down overnight is because
there was a report that came out from one of
(02:47):
the journalists. It said three hundred million barrels they could
release from the emergency stockpile. This is from the International
Energy Agency. Three hundred million barrels is a butt ton
of oil. It is a lot. To give you some context,
three hundred million barrels, it would be more than double
the previous record set, which was during Russia's invasion of
(03:10):
Ukraine in twenty twenty two, it would be a quarter
of their stockpile. This is the G seven, the International
Energy Agency, but the decision would be made by the
G seven finance ministers. It is effectively less though, than
three days of global oil consumption. We chew through it,
don't we. It's about a fortnight of normal Strait of
(03:31):
Hormuz traffic. A fortnight, so two weeks worth of traffic
through that strait, which just gives you an indication of
how important it is. Anyway, they may not all agree
on whether to do this or not. That amount also
is subject to change, but that's the reason you saw
the price come down a little bit off those massive
highs that it was heading yesterday. Crain Bridge, you're on
(03:53):
news Talks. Heb it's ten minutes after five. Next, the
Iranians have got a new leader. Does this mean the
war will come to Is he the they put in
to do a deal and get this thing over with
or is he the guy they put in to actually
go longer and harder. We'll speak to a Middle East
expert next on.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Your radio and online on Iheard Radio Early edition with
Ryan Bridge and one Root Love where you live News Talks.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
I'd been twelve after five. You know in Auckland we've
had this problem. Be well, we all have the problem,
don't we need to use the bathroom, and then the
council or water Care more to the point, will pump sewage,
often more sewage into places where were growing muscles and
then we have to give compensation. Well, look at Canterbury.
It could be coming to a town near you because
(04:40):
last week film major and the mayor decided in a
bid to reduce the smell that's coming from Bromley. You know,
no one likes to wake up and have a whiff
of that. One of the things they can do is
release some of that sewage into the ocean. And now
we have muscle farmers, their Canterbury muscle farmers saying the
(05:00):
plan to discharge partially treated sewage into the ocean could
of course devastate the local aquaculture industry. Shane Jones is
up in arms, as you could imagine. What they want
to do is add a bit of chlorine before pumping
it in, so that'll make things okay. When it's thirteen
after five.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
Bryan Bridge Irad.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Appointed much Tuba Harmony, the son of the late Supreme
leader who was killed in US Israeli strikes as the
new Supreme Leader, fifty six years old, kept a very
low profile, Andrew England, as the Financial Times Middle East
editor joins US Live this morning, Andrew, this doesn't sound
much like a big change or regime change. Is what's
(05:40):
this guy going to be?
Speaker 6 (05:41):
Like?
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Do we know?
Speaker 7 (05:43):
No, I mean, we know very little about him. But
what we do know is he's probably going to be
a continuation of his father, who is in power in
nearly four decades. That means a hardline, hostile attitude towards
the US, towards Israel, towards the westmore generally. And let's
remember that, you know, last week the Americans and israelis
(06:04):
bomb Supreme Leader his father's compound killed mushta Bar's father,
his mother, his wife, his sister. So you know, he's
probably got a lot of hostility in him. So what
we've seen is one homony replaced another homony. Just this
is a younger version, potentially a more hawkish version. We
just don't know yet because we don't know enough about him.
(06:26):
Like you said, he's kind of kept a very low
profile over the years.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
There's talk that people haven't even heard his voice. We
don't even know what he sounds like. He's that low profile.
Speaker 7 (06:38):
Yeah, there's one recording of his voice, and they the
Iranian media has put out footage of him back in
the eighties during the Irana Rock War when he's with
what looks like members of the elite Revolutionary Guards and
he's close to revenution guards. But you know, he's had
no formal position. We know that he was close to
(07:00):
his father, the Supreme lead at Ali I had told
Ali Romeni and sort of worked in his office, but
he had no form position. He hasn't spoken, He hasn't
he hasn't given a statement. We haven't heard from him
since the war started. We don't know where he is
and we don't really know what the fate of it is.
We don't know if he was in that compound, you know,
(07:22):
if he's wounded, if he's fit and healthy. We just
really don't know.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
He's obviously got a target on his back now, doesn't
thin Because these rallies as say they want to get
rid of them, and in the absolutely no, no.
Speaker 7 (07:36):
I mean you know, possibly the Americans, I mean, Trump
was asked about watched the bar the other day and
he called him a lightweight. He said that he wants
to approve the appointment of a new leader. He's said
he's worn that, you know, a new leader without his
approval won't last long. These Raelis have suggested that they
would assassinate a new leader, and Trump's said the American
(08:01):
and Israeli strikes have killed forty nine leaders. So certainly,
given that he's, you know, an extension of his father,
an extension of the regime, and it's a sign that
the regime is doubling down. It's showing that it's defined.
It's kind of stuck its finger up to Trump and
showing that this, you know, everyone's reading this, this is
(08:22):
going to continue to resist and fight back in this
for then obviously he's going to be reassume that he's
going to be a prime target.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
Yeah, they're also saying they can do six months of
this dance at this pace of bombing. Is that bluster
or are they serious?
Speaker 7 (08:35):
Six months?
Speaker 2 (08:36):
The Americans, all the the Iranians. Sorry, we don't know.
Speaker 7 (08:41):
I mean, look, obviously they're taking an absolute pounding. That's
been intense bombing. They've got ballistic missiles which require missile launches,
and you can have as many missiles as you like,
but if you don't have the launches, then the missiles
are no good. And we can assume, and these ready
have been saying this that a lot of their launchers
have been hit. They also have drones which they're being
firing across the gulf, and this is what's pushed up
(09:04):
oil prices. They have a lot of drones. You don't
need launch to do those. So, you know, we don't
know how long they can stain it because we don't
know the full degree of their arsenals. We don't know
the full degree of damage. But you've got to remember,
from the Islamic Regien's perspective, endurance is a victory. Survival
is victory. And as long as they can continue firing
(09:24):
a missile here and a drone there and survive this
onslaught from you know, the world's most powerful army to them,
that will be victory. So in some ways it's kind
of a war of endurance.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
Andrew, appreciate your analysis this morning, Andrew England, Financial Times
Middle East Editor. It is seventeen minutes after five, Bryan
Bridge to completely take you somewhere else. Jules has text
in the program Morning Jewels. She says good morning, Ryan,
up early for a Kappa sitting on our deck looking
out over Tasman Bay. It's quiet, serene, living way on
down at the bottom of the earth has its benefits.
(10:00):
Love your show, Jules, Love your text. Next, it's private
healthcare versus public or does it need to be.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
News and views you trust to start your day? It's
early Ediship with Ryan Bridge and one roof love where
you live news talks.
Speaker 2 (10:16):
I'd be five twenty. Leadership questions for the National Party
are no longer relevant or important given the price of oil,
I would have thought. So let's talk about what happened
at that press conference yesterday. Nicola Willis came out and
said there is a chance and they don't know how
big the chance is yet nobody does. Anybody's guess. Only
Trump knows and this new Harmony guy who's running Iran.
(10:39):
But we need to know how big a hit to
GDP we're going to take could take because of what's
going on in the Middle East, and there are estimates
out there. Nikola Willis gave us some yesterday, but you
would have to say on the balance of probabilities at
this point that quarter two the recovery is probably stalling.
Speaker 1 (10:56):
Ryan Bridge.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
New Westpac report out this morning says we need to
send more public health procedures to the private system. We
spend about ten percent of our GDP on health the year,
seven percent public, three percent private. That's about the same
as the rest of the world. But the report argues
that specialized treatments could go private, cutting wait times, improving outcomes.
Chris Roberts, New Zealand Private Surgical Hospitals Associations CEO with
(11:19):
me this morning. Chris, good morning, Good morning.
Speaker 8 (11:21):
Ryan.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
Has Westpac kept the nail on the head here?
Speaker 9 (11:25):
Well, I don't think there's any surprises in these conclusions
from Westpac. New Zealand's had a mixed private public health
system for a very long time. Private hospitals have been
around for one hundred years in New Zealand, and we
are being called on more and more, and that's because
we do have the capabilities. We deliver quality care and
(11:47):
we can take pressure off the public health system, and.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
The government's already doing this with hips and knees and
a bunch of other stuff more frequently now than previously.
Is that the report says there's lots of capacity. I
mean do we have surgeon sitting around twiddling their thumbs
in private.
Speaker 9 (12:03):
No, we don't, but we do have private hospitals investing.
They've invested heavily over the last few years into new facilities,
new operating sizes. They don't tend to have the staffing
issues that some of the public hospitals do, so they
are looking to provide a bigger service. And of course
(12:26):
the private hospitals as well as the insurance patients that
they look after, they've long done most of the ACC surgery.
So about ninety percent of the surgery done under the
ACC scheme happens in private hospitals, and currently about twenty
percent of the health New Zealand patients those on the
(12:47):
elective surgery waiting lists, about twenty percent get seen in
the private hospital. And I can tell you if you're
on that public waiting list and you get told that
you're going to get your long awaited surgery in a
private hospital, you're pretty happy about that.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
No one's going to say no to a knee now, Chris,
what's the public system getting so wrong when it comes
to efficiency or are you actually doing very different things
and therefore they can't cop all the blame.
Speaker 9 (13:16):
Oh, look, the public system is trying to be everything
to everybody, so it's dealing with acute surgery emergency needs.
Private hospital is all about planned care, so they're not
doing that emergency service. They can plan their week, they're
month ahead of they know which patients are coming in
(13:37):
for surgery. They're incredibly efficient at looking after those patients
and that's why it makes sense for those planned surgeries
to happen in a private facility. It's far more efficient,
it's more cost effective, and critically, it gives the patient
a better experience. They know when they're going to get
(13:57):
their surgery that they're not going to get stop the
list several times, have to prepare for surgery and miss
out and come back again. When you get booked into
a private hospital, you know when you're going to have
your surgery and you get it.
Speaker 2 (14:11):
Chris, appreciate your time this morning. Chris Roberts, the Private
Surgical Hospitals Association Chief Executive. Twenty four minutes after five,
you're on News Talks theirb I'll give you a little
update on the situation in the Middle East. Next also
the you know the alleged terrorist, the Bondai Beach gunman,
one of them. You won't believe what he's trying to
do in court. I'll tell you that shortly to Donald
(14:33):
de Mayo out of Australia after News at half five.
Speaker 1 (14:35):
The early edition Full the Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News TALKSB.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
Five twenty six News TALKSB. The war in Iran is
not a shocking event in the sense that we knew
it was coming. Trump's been not so much hinting but
sounding a foghorn for months now, and as we've been
covering on this show, as you well know, he's been
amassing military assets in the region since the end of January.
So not surprising. But what what has surprised is Iran
hitting their neighbors, the Golf States so hard, including the
(15:04):
oil fields and the refineries. This has surprised the markets,
hence what we're seeing in Asia and at home. Same
goes for the price of oil. Yesterday when we talked
about that Gold and Sax estimate of one hundred dollars
a barrel by the end of the week, we got
there by the end of Monday. Remember they also warned
of one hundred and fifty dollars a barrel by the
end of the month. Let's hope we're not there by Friday.
(15:27):
Oil and fertilizer run our agricultural sector. And yesterday I
was listening to a grain farmer in christ Church say
that daily harvesting costs on his farm would increase by
two to three thousand dollars a day already during harvesting.
We're not immune to the price spikes, but we're also
not that well insulated from them either. We're reliant on
(15:47):
energy imports to keep us afloat now more than ever.
Marsden Point used to refine seventy percent of our petrol
ninety percent of our diesel. Extracting oil and gas became
a cardinal sin under labor. You don't know what you've
got till it's gone, do you. The international shocks, which
as we all now know, aren't that shocking, are also
(16:07):
driving a surge in support for economic nationalism and self reliance.
Look at New Zealand. First, to this government's credit, it
has extended our emergency oil backup supplies, done deals with
the Singapore's of the world so that we don't run out.
Hopefully and as a backstop we're about to do LNG.
But again that's imported subject to shocks. The more global
(16:29):
events we have, the more we un for self reliance
and greater energy independence. Our world beating exports keep US afloat,
but what use are they without a reliable supply of
reasonably priced inputs that help produce them. Twenty eight minutes
after five News Talks mb SO, the alleged gunman in
(16:51):
Bondai in Sydney, Navid Arkram is his name. This is
one of the two has sought a court order to
prevent the media from publishing details of his immediate family. Why.
Because he's worried about their safety. He's worried the fact
that he allegedly went and shot up a peaceful park
(17:13):
near the beach fifteen murdered. He's worried that that reputation
might stain that of his family, and he's worried about
how people are going to treat them in public. I'm
sorry and I'm the skull. If you were worried about that,
maybe don't go and massacre Jewish people, you know. Donald
Demayo out of Australia with US Live After News and
(17:36):
Sharon Zohlner from A and Z's on the price of
oil News Talks they've been.
Speaker 1 (17:49):
The news you need this morning and the in depth
analysis early edition with Ryan Bridge and one Route Love
where you Live news talks that'd be.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
Pretty far away from the six zero on newsbooks have
the Sharon Zolan and the Gains in chief economists with
us before six is our economic recovery about to stall
because of what's happening in the Middle East they're rationing
fuel and Western Australia because of oil. Iran will speak
to Donald de Mayo out of there shortly by the way.
At the moment, Rachel Reeves, Chancellor in the UK, is
giving an update to the House of Commons. She's been
(18:23):
in a G seven meeting with other finance ministers deciding
whether they will release some strategic reserves of oil and
then hopefully calm the farm. So we'll play you some
of what she's had to say in the last few
minutes as well. Twenty three to six Bryan Bridge, God
is a Eden first, Jamie, good morning, Good morning. So
there's a study into the Hector's dolphins. What's that about.
Speaker 4 (18:44):
Yeah, So the species currently has a population just over
fifteen hundred and has four sub populations in the South Island.
They are managed under the Hectors and Marwi Dolphin Threat
Management Plan. So this study will collect genetic sample of
the dolphins determine how closely related or not they are
to neighboring populations. Department of Conservation Senior Science Advisor and
(19:07):
On Van Holden says data collected throughout the week will
support their long term protection, ensuring the species continues for
future generations.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
How's the weather.
Speaker 4 (19:17):
Mainly fine, some high cloud from afternoon, northeasterlyies developing this
morning and a higher fourteen.
Speaker 2 (19:22):
Thank you very much, Jamie Clear in christ Which morning, Claire,
Good morning. A freedom campers in North Brighton putting children
at risk.
Speaker 10 (19:30):
Yes, there has been concerns around freedom camping at North
Brighton for some time now. The Community Board of North
Beach has been considering the next steps in dealing with
the issue to put it into perspective. Effectively, you drive
down Marine Parade and there's all of these car parks
along the beach and a lot of them overnight and
through the weekend are just filled with vans and camper
vans etc. There's obviously concerned around the impact of that
(19:53):
on the environment, but now also on children. There's children
who are there's campers rather showering naked and open place.
There's waste and rubbish being left behind. The community Board's
looking for next steps. The board member Kim Money says
things have only escalated and there's real worried, a real
worry rather that a public safety, the environment and community access.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Is being compromisedness may how's your weather?
Speaker 10 (20:18):
A bit of cloud about this morning? Otherwise fine southern
east turning northeasterly and a high of sixteen.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
Thank you very much. Just before we get to Max,
by the way, that G seven Finance Minister's meeting and
the International Energy Agency they have not come to an
agreement on whether to release strategic crud reserves or not,
so no decision as yet. They say we will take
necessary measures, but they haven't actually agreed to do anything. Max.
Good morning, Good morning. They have agreed to do something
(20:43):
about a four hundred thousand dollars knees up in Wellington?
What's that about here?
Speaker 11 (20:48):
As if our city officials never learn our central Library
here is reopening and to celebrate a few brainless drones
thought it a good idea to have a four hundred
and five thousand dollars massive two day party over the
weekend to celebrate large civic ceremony, invited guests, street festival,
food trucks, road closures, performances, because apparently that's what you
(21:09):
do when a civic building gets a couple of years
of earthquake strengthening. Somewhere at the mayors off is obviously
caught wind of this and, fearing the type of headline
we saw frequently during the previous disastrous administration, put the
kibosh on the thing, or at least managed to negotiate
the cost down to about one hundred and seventy five
thousand dollars of rate payer money. Apparently the project team
(21:30):
had been operating under direct council instruction from last July.
The library back open on Monday, though it's Saturday, I
should say, the mind boggles.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
How's you winning?
Speaker 11 (21:41):
Yeah, mainly find strong southerly sixteen.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
Thank you very much, Neva, good morning, Good morning. Orcan's
Midtown has the most to gain from the Crlberican.
Speaker 12 (21:51):
Yes, Midtown so commercial real estate agency JLL Research finds
it more than ten billion dollars of private and public
investment is being pumped into that precinct. That's that area
from you know, lt Square and Skytower as well, So
it highlights that you know what, Midtown's much cheaper, much
cheaper for businesses to set up and you know, rather
(22:13):
than the waterfront and Britain. Mark Chris Dibble from JLL.
He said of research, saying that the property values their
set to also benefit. You're quite right from the city
rail link, and he says overseas example show that rents
often rises ten to twenty percent after the main train
station opens.
Speaker 2 (22:31):
So which is going to happen in September. Remember we're
still going down there.
Speaker 12 (22:34):
Rightly, Ah, have we had approval?
Speaker 2 (22:37):
No one's going.
Speaker 12 (22:37):
We are going.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
We're going anywhere.
Speaker 12 (22:39):
No one can stop us.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
Now you watch us. How's our weather fine?
Speaker 13 (22:42):
To start with?
Speaker 7 (22:42):
Cloudy?
Speaker 12 (22:42):
Period's isolated chowles this morning are HIGHR twenty.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
Four brilliant neither thank you. In nineteen minutes away from
six on news talks, he'll be we'll get to Australia,
Donald and Mayer standing by for us and we'll have
a bit of time for Sharon's old this morning AM's
chief economists. Because well, the question you want to ask
at this point is is the price of oil and
the fact that I mean it's come down overnight. By
the way, I for you're just joining us. The last
(23:05):
time I had a little squizz, it was around ninety seven.
This is Brent crude ninety seven dollars down from the
high of one hundred and almost one hundred and twenty yesterday,
which was a twenty five percent premium on the day
before that or the close before that. So the next
question is is you know, one, how long does the
whole thing go on for? And then two what impact
might that have on our recovery? Because remember what happened
(23:28):
last time when Trump Tariff's people sort of clamped up
a bit, clammed up, stopped spending. Confidence took a hit,
Business confidence took a hit, consumer confidence took a hit.
So if that happens again, what does it mean for
the recovery? Does it stall? In Q two All Ahead
News Talks, B sixteen away from six News Talks, zib
Sharon Zolder from A and Z on the way In
(23:50):
just a few moments, the G seven finance ministers have
been meeting while we have been sleeping, and they have
agreed to well do nothing at this point about releasing
strategic reserves of oil. They got a whole bunch of oil.
When the price goes crazy, they released it to calm
the farm. They've only done this five times before. The
most recent was when Russia invaded Ukraine back in twenty
(24:12):
twenty two. Here's a cook update from Rachel Reads, who
was at the meeting, now addressing the House of Commons.
Speaker 13 (24:18):
This afternoon, I spoke with G seven finance ministers setting
out my priorities for the international corporation needed. First, calling
for immediate de escalation and a return to the diplomatic process. Second,
we must guarantee the security of vessels passing through the
straight off hor moves. Third, I stand ready to support
(24:42):
a coordinated release of collective International Energy Agency oil reserves.
Speaker 2 (24:47):
On that question, the French have come out and said, quote,
we are not quite there yet.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
International correspondence with Insigne Eye Insurance Peace of mind for
New Zealand business.
Speaker 2 (24:59):
Donald Our, Australia correspondent with US Live this morning on
a good morning, Good morning to you. We've got fuel
rations starting in Western Australia.
Speaker 5 (25:07):
Yes, Well, as we watch those oil prices start to
saw fuel wholesalers are understood to have started rationing their
stock and we've heard from the federal Energy Minister, Chris Bowen,
and he says that this the panic buying and not
the supply issues that are causing or contributing to a shortage.
Now we have heard that at least two towns in
(25:29):
Wa have started banning drivers from buying fuel at all.
They're reserving it for only emergency authorities apparently. And we
also know that the Wa Premier, Roger Cooker's had to
come out and say something and he says, look, there's
no constraints on supply chains at the moment, but can
you imagine what's happening when the petrol pumps are shut.
(25:51):
This is pushing motorists to the next.
Speaker 2 (25:53):
One up the road.
Speaker 5 (25:54):
And so we're hearing reports of you know, quite lengthy queues,
you know, ten to fifteen cars at a time, all
lined and people are starting to fill their jerry cans.
We've heard from one petrol station owner who said he's
had to put a thirty liter limit on a fuel
until they can get some more fuel in. He said,
it's like a scene from a movie at the moment.
Speaker 2 (26:14):
Meanwhile, you've got hundreds of people evacuated in a too
dar and I should say in northern territory floods and
loads of crocodile sightings.
Speaker 5 (26:22):
Oh gosh, okay, I've braced yourself here. So in some
parts between two hundred and five hundred mills of rain
in five days and it looks like it's going to
last for another week. So there's been some of the
worst flooding in decades, record breaking levels. For instance, the
Dalhi River, it reached its peak yesterday at about fifteen
point three meters. It's the highest it's been since nineteen
(26:45):
ninety eight. So we've heard from the Mayor of Catherine.
In fact, the Catherine River peak yesterday at nineteen point
two meters, which is also a record. Streets are inundated.
She says he's never seen so many fresh water and
saltwater crops in local floodwaters before. And wait for it,
a crocodile was even spotted on the local footy oval. Now,
(27:07):
as someone put it, that certainly adds an element of
danger to the cleanup.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Certainly does. I don't like thinking about that stuff, but
I appreciate you your time all the same. Dona Tomorrow,
Australia correspondent, just gone twelve minutes away from six I
re all heard the doom and gloom at POSTCAB yesterday, I.
Speaker 6 (27:24):
Am advised that a quick resolution of the conflict in
the next few weeks would see the economy evolve close
to the preliminary forecasts, albeit with slightly higher inflation in
the near term. A longer conflict would likely have downside
GDP impacts.
Speaker 2 (27:39):
By the way, Brent Crew this morning has come back
from one hundred and twenty dollars of barrels now back
under one hundred dollars, still floating around a wee bit.
Sharon's Olner A and Z chief economists with us this morning. Sharon,
good morning, good morning. Give it to us straight. How
bad is this going to get?
Speaker 1 (27:56):
Well?
Speaker 8 (27:57):
Having spoken to them, major world leaders, that's the thing
that we are in no position to know. And the
Finance Minister is quite right that the duration of the
shock is just as important as the size of it.
And as regards the size of it, I mean, oil
one hundred and twenty yesterday, now it's back under one hundred.
I mean, these moves are enormous, so very very difficult
(28:18):
to gauge the severity of the shock for markets at
the moment, but yeah, some are shooting first and ask
some questions later. In terms of the market moves have
been quite ferocious. But we're seeing not just the oil
price but other prices like bond yields coming back a
bit as well, which is good because we had a
wild day yesterday in the Zealand market.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
Yeah it was pretty crazy, wasn't it. Do you think
it'll might come down a bit more today, given what's
happening with that oil price?
Speaker 8 (28:47):
Is it? Typically the New Zealand market reflects what's happened
in the US market overnight. So that I've just checked,
the US ten ure yields have come back a long way,
so the New Zealand bond yield should follow hopefully on
the open. But we will continue to follow them up
and down however the volatility goes. And that's one of
the things that is easier to be certain about at
the moment, is that solatility is going to continue because
(29:09):
markets are reacting to headlines that are all over the place, of.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
Course, and then there's our reaction to those headlines too,
both businesses and consumers. And we saw what happened with
Trump and as tariffs, you know, we all went, oh,
let's not spend any money, let's stay home. Whatever, do
you you know, is there a risk that happens here?
Does the recovery stall?
Speaker 8 (29:29):
Absolutely? Uncertainty is not great for decision making, That's always
the case. And of course we've already got an election
this year that we were wondering if that uncertainty could impact,
and the uncertainty about the global growth outlook will be
weighing on the minds of exporters for sure, and cost
inflation potentially as Well've obviously got a lot of businesses
that are exposed to energy costs. Fertilizer is another one
(29:53):
that tends to move pretty closely with oil as well.
So yeah, the uncertainty, well, let's hope it's really quickly.
But right here, right now, it feels like it's pretty
much at the maximum in terms of whether we're looking
at a short or a long term disruption to oil
markets here.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
And yet you sound quite relaxed to me. Is that
because is Sharon? Is that because you're doing your best
to sound relaxed or do you think do you think
there's an equal chance actually this could wrap up in
a week or two and everything's back to normal.
Speaker 8 (30:25):
Not looking that way, is it. But it is looking
a lot better than it was twelve hours ago in
terms of the market prices, but who knows where it
looks like twelve hours from now. But I do think
that central banks at the list will be keen to
not panic and not do anything rash in terms of
(30:46):
rushing to raise infestrates because it's inflationary for example, because
it is also bad for growth, and so the trade
off and the choices are quite stark for central banks
in terms of how they should respond to it. Our
own central bank, there's confidence and implation that looks in Febry.
I'm sure they're feeling less confident now, just because oil
is such an important input into all sorts of costs
(31:08):
and prices. But as long as inflation expectations remain well
anchored and they can tolerate a bit of noise in
the near term, rather than feel they need to deliberately
heed the recovery off in order to make sure inflations
back at two percent quickly. That's not how these things work.
But it's a very long sustained shock, and there will
(31:28):
be more difficult to look through those inflationary impacts, and
then it could get a bit ugly.
Speaker 2 (31:33):
Sharon, thank you. Sharon's on the A and Z Chief Economists.
You're on News Talk sib.
Speaker 1 (31:37):
It's eight to six, the first word on the News
of the Day Early edition with Ryan Bridge and one
Roote Love where.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
You Live, News talks'd b. These Talks sa'd be is
six minutes away from six. Has been quite a busy,
heavy hour, hasn't it. Here's Timothy Shamlow, who's the actor
who goes out with Kylie Jenner, getting himself in a
bit of trouble talking about opera and ballet.
Speaker 14 (32:00):
And some people want to be entertaining quickly. I'm really
right in the middle, Matthew, because I admire people, and
I've done it myself to want to talk toiout, Hey,
we got to keep movie theaters alive, you know, we
got to keep this genre alive. And another part of
me feels like if people want to see it like Barbie,
like Oppenheimer, they're going to go see it and go
out of the wad and be loud and proud about it.
And I don't want to be working in ballet or
(32:21):
opera or you know, things where it's like, hey, keep
this thing alive.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
Even though he's talking to Matthew McConaughey. As you can imagine,
now the ballet people and the opera people have their
tutus in a real twist. Ryan Bridge, good morning, Mike
Gating's Ryan, you have a ballet or an opera person?
Speaker 15 (32:40):
I was, I've been the worst one I ever went
to was Wagner's Demeister Singer.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
Have you ever been to that?
Speaker 15 (32:46):
It's it lasts with meal breaks, and there are meal breaks.
It lasts eight hours, oh that one. And so you
have your head, Well, this was an afternoon into evening session,
so you had a late afternoon snack and then moving
on in to dinner.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
Do you you tended to leave halfway through very much?
Where it didn't you?
Speaker 15 (33:05):
If it was, it was a good question. I think
I think actually did in the end. But I had
the two meals. I thought, well, if we're here for
the two meals, I'll do the time.
Speaker 2 (33:12):
They included in that they were part of the Oh,
there was no way they were going to keep I
mean unless you were helling Clark, There's no way you're
staying for eight hours.
Speaker 15 (33:19):
So they had to keep you there with free food.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
I get a bit of flat from friends because if
I don't like a movie, like just a normal movie
two hours two and a half hours long. If I
don't like it, I just leave the cinema and it's
you know, I'm going.
Speaker 15 (33:31):
To go to the cinema. I would I would feel
different about the television. I'd walk away from a movie.
I watched a movie I can't you remember what it
was the other day ten minutes and I thought this
is crap.
Speaker 2 (33:41):
I was gone.
Speaker 15 (33:42):
That was the end of that.
Speaker 2 (33:42):
See now you add up how many ten minutes we
waste have we wasted on starting movies and not finishing them?
Speaker 15 (33:48):
Yeah, and imagine all the money you've saved over the
years that you can now put into your petrol now.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
That you count you don't afford it.
Speaker 15 (33:55):
Yeah, quite right to say it's below one hundred and two.
By the way, so yesterday was I think a bit
of an apparition.
Speaker 2 (33:59):
But we'll do all the numbers. Fantastic work at work
it through Crystal Ballert and hey, the G seven will
save us well. Marvey News Talks be Marke next La.
Speaker 1 (34:11):
Continne For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen
live to News Talk Set B from five am weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
The issues, the interviews and the insight. Ryan Bridge on
an early edition with one roof love, where you live
news talks.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
It'd be good morning, just gone six after five. We'll
speak to Sharon Zolna before six remains et on oil
rationing of petrol happening in Wa will live across the
Tasman Private hospitals could save the public system. New report
on that this morning, we'll bring it to you and
the Financial Time as Middle East editor on the new
leader of Iran. The agenda Tuesday, the tenth of March.
(00:30):
Great to have your company watching this G seven meeting closely?
Are they going to release some reserves of oil as
the price spikes.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
The longer this goes on, the more likely the potential
for an impact on our economy and impact into the
lives and households of everybody and every business.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
This Iranian women's football team. Trump wants Australia to give
them asylum. They refuse to sing the national anthem at
the Asia Cup on the GCAT.
Speaker 4 (00:56):
He says they will most likely be killed.
Speaker 5 (01:00):
Don't do it, mister Prime minister, give asylum. The US
will take them if you won't.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Everyone loves Rihanna except for the person who's been firing
at her house. This is in Beverly Hills. She was
at home at the time. Police say the suspect, a
woman in her thirties, stopped in a car outside her home,
fired seven shots and then drove away.
Speaker 6 (01:18):
Well, I was just washing dishes in my house and
I heard shots. I was a little shocked. You know,
we don't hear that kind of thing in this neighborhood.
It's pretty quiet.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
No, it's Beverly Hills. No one injured, thankfully. Our suspect
is in police custody.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
Get ahead of the headlines on early edition with Ryan
Bridge and One roof Love where you Live News Talks.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
I'd be seven after five nine nine two the number
to text. So the G seven, the big boys and
girls are having a meeting and they are deciding as
the price of oil had one hundred and twenty dollars
a barrel yesterday. It has come back by the way overnight.
It's looking Last time I checked at around ninety seven
dollars a barrel, but it was up twenty five percent yesterday.
They're looking at releasing some strategic reserves. You know, they're
(02:03):
going to whole bunch that when there's an emergency, when
something goes wrong, they can release it, flood the market
and then hopefully the price comes down. People chill out.
They did this in twenty twenty two when the war
in Ukraine broke out. Iran has been going harder on
the oil fields over the last few days. In fact,
last night the Saudi's intercepted two waves of drone attacks
(02:25):
heading for oil fields. So the Iranians are just they
obviously see the button and they're just pressing it repeatedly, now,
aren't they, Because they know what hurts the rest of
the world, and it is the price of oil. So
you've got this G seven meeting happening. And the reason
that the price of oil came down overnight is because
there was a report that came out from one of
(02:47):
the journalists. It said three hundred million barrels they could
release from the emergency stockpile. This is from the International
Energy Agency. Three hundred million barrels is a butt ton
of oil. It is a lot. To give you some context,
three hundred million barrels, it would be more than double
the previous record set, which was during Russia's invasion of
(03:10):
Ukraine in twenty twenty two, it would be a quarter
of their stockpile. This is the G seven, the International
Energy Agency, but the decision would be made by the
G seven finance ministers. It is effectively less though, than
three days of global oil consumption. We chew through it,
don't we. It's about a fortnight of normal Strait of
(03:31):
Hormuz traffic. A fortnight, so two weeks worth of traffic
through that strait, which just gives you an indication of
how important it is. Anyway, they may not all agree
on whether to do this or not. That amount also
is subject to change, but that's the reason you saw
the price come down a little bit off those massive
highs that it was heading yesterday. Crain Bridge, you're on
(03:53):
news Talks. Heb it's ten minutes after five. Next, the
Iranians have got a new leader. Does this mean the
war will come to Is he the they put in
to do a deal and get this thing over with
or is he the guy they put in to actually
go longer and harder. We'll speak to a Middle East
expert next on.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Your radio and online on Iheard Radio Early edition with
Ryan Bridge and one Root Love where you live News Talks.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
I'd been twelve after five. You know in Auckland we've
had this problem. Be well, we all have the problem,
don't we need to use the bathroom, and then the
council or water Care more to the point, will pump sewage,
often more sewage into places where were growing muscles and
then we have to give compensation. Well, look at Canterbury.
It could be coming to a town near you because
(04:40):
last week film major and the mayor decided in a
bid to reduce the smell that's coming from Bromley. You know,
no one likes to wake up and have a whiff
of that. One of the things they can do is
release some of that sewage into the ocean. And now
we have muscle farmers, their Canterbury muscle farmers saying the
(05:00):
plan to discharge partially treated sewage into the ocean could
of course devastate the local aquaculture industry. Shane Jones is
up in arms, as you could imagine. What they want
to do is add a bit of chlorine before pumping
it in, so that'll make things okay. When it's thirteen
after five.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
Bryan Bridge Irad.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Appointed much Tuba Harmony, the son of the late Supreme
leader who was killed in US Israeli strikes as the
new Supreme Leader, fifty six years old, kept a very
low profile, Andrew England, as the Financial Times Middle East
editor joins US Live this morning, Andrew, this doesn't sound
much like a big change or regime change. Is what's
(05:40):
this guy going to be?
Speaker 6 (05:41):
Like?
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Do we know?
Speaker 7 (05:43):
No, I mean, we know very little about him. But
what we do know is he's probably going to be
a continuation of his father, who is in power in
nearly four decades. That means a hardline, hostile attitude towards
the US, towards Israel, towards the westmore generally. And let's
remember that, you know, last week the Americans and israelis
(06:04):
bomb Supreme Leader his father's compound killed mushta Bar's father,
his mother, his wife, his sister. So you know, he's
probably got a lot of hostility in him. So what
we've seen is one homony replaced another homony. Just this
is a younger version, potentially a more hawkish version. We
just don't know yet because we don't know enough about him.
(06:26):
Like you said, he's kind of kept a very low
profile over the years.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
There's talk that people haven't even heard his voice. We
don't even know what he sounds like. He's that low profile.
Speaker 7 (06:38):
Yeah, there's one recording of his voice, and they the
Iranian media has put out footage of him back in
the eighties during the Irana Rock War when he's with
what looks like members of the elite Revolutionary Guards and
he's close to revenution guards. But you know, he's had
no formal position. We know that he was close to
(07:00):
his father, the Supreme lead at Ali I had told
Ali Romeni and sort of worked in his office, but
he had no form position. He hasn't spoken, He hasn't
he hasn't given a statement. We haven't heard from him
since the war started. We don't know where he is
and we don't really know what the fate of it is.
We don't know if he was in that compound, you know,
(07:22):
if he's wounded, if he's fit and healthy. We just
really don't know.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
He's obviously got a target on his back now, doesn't
thin Because these rallies as say they want to get
rid of them, and in the absolutely no, no.
Speaker 7 (07:36):
I mean you know, possibly the Americans, I mean, Trump
was asked about watched the bar the other day and
he called him a lightweight. He said that he wants
to approve the appointment of a new leader. He's said
he's worn that, you know, a new leader without his
approval won't last long. These Raelis have suggested that they
would assassinate a new leader, and Trump's said the American
(08:01):
and Israeli strikes have killed forty nine leaders. So certainly,
given that he's, you know, an extension of his father,
an extension of the regime, and it's a sign that
the regime is doubling down. It's showing that it's defined.
It's kind of stuck its finger up to Trump and
showing that this, you know, everyone's reading this, this is
(08:22):
going to continue to resist and fight back in this
for then obviously he's going to be reassume that he's
going to be a prime target.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
Yeah, they're also saying they can do six months of
this dance at this pace of bombing. Is that bluster
or are they serious?
Speaker 7 (08:35):
Six months?
Speaker 2 (08:36):
The Americans, all the the Iranians. Sorry, we don't know.
Speaker 7 (08:41):
I mean, look, obviously they're taking an absolute pounding. That's
been intense bombing. They've got ballistic missiles which require missile launches,
and you can have as many missiles as you like,
but if you don't have the launches, then the missiles
are no good. And we can assume, and these ready
have been saying this that a lot of their launchers
have been hit. They also have drones which they're being
firing across the gulf, and this is what's pushed up
(09:04):
oil prices. They have a lot of drones. You don't
need launch to do those. So, you know, we don't
know how long they can stain it because we don't
know the full degree of their arsenals. We don't know
the full degree of damage. But you've got to remember,
from the Islamic Regien's perspective, endurance is a victory. Survival
is victory. And as long as they can continue firing
(09:24):
a missile here and a drone there and survive this
onslaught from you know, the world's most powerful army to them,
that will be victory. So in some ways it's kind
of a war of endurance.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
Andrew, appreciate your analysis this morning, Andrew England, Financial Times
Middle East Editor. It is seventeen minutes after five, Bryan
Bridge to completely take you somewhere else. Jules has text
in the program Morning Jewels. She says good morning, Ryan,
up early for a Kappa sitting on our deck looking
out over Tasman Bay. It's quiet, serene, living way on
down at the bottom of the earth has its benefits.
(10:00):
Love your show, Jules, Love your text. Next, it's private
healthcare versus public or does it need to be.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
News and views you trust to start your day? It's
early Ediship with Ryan Bridge and one roof love where
you live news talks.
Speaker 2 (10:16):
I'd be five twenty. Leadership questions for the National Party
are no longer relevant or important given the price of oil,
I would have thought. So let's talk about what happened
at that press conference yesterday. Nicola Willis came out and
said there is a chance and they don't know how
big the chance is yet nobody does. Anybody's guess. Only
Trump knows and this new Harmony guy who's running Iran.
(10:39):
But we need to know how big a hit to
GDP we're going to take could take because of what's
going on in the Middle East, and there are estimates
out there. Nikola Willis gave us some yesterday, but you
would have to say on the balance of probabilities at
this point that quarter two the recovery is probably stalling.
Speaker 1 (10:56):
Ryan Bridge.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
New Westpac report out this morning says we need to
send more public health procedures to the private system. We
spend about ten percent of our GDP on health the year,
seven percent public, three percent private. That's about the same
as the rest of the world. But the report argues
that specialized treatments could go private, cutting wait times, improving outcomes.
Chris Roberts, New Zealand Private Surgical Hospitals Associations CEO with
(11:19):
me this morning. Chris, good morning, Good morning.
Speaker 8 (11:21):
Ryan.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
Has Westpac kept the nail on the head here?
Speaker 9 (11:25):
Well, I don't think there's any surprises in these conclusions
from Westpac. New Zealand's had a mixed private public health
system for a very long time. Private hospitals have been
around for one hundred years in New Zealand, and we
are being called on more and more, and that's because
we do have the capabilities. We deliver quality care and
(11:47):
we can take pressure off the public health system, and.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
The government's already doing this with hips and knees and
a bunch of other stuff more frequently now than previously.
Is that the report says there's lots of capacity. I
mean do we have surgeon sitting around twiddling their thumbs
in private.
Speaker 9 (12:03):
No, we don't, but we do have private hospitals investing.
They've invested heavily over the last few years into new facilities,
new operating sizes. They don't tend to have the staffing
issues that some of the public hospitals do, so they
are looking to provide a bigger service. And of course
(12:26):
the private hospitals as well as the insurance patients that
they look after, they've long done most of the ACC surgery.
So about ninety percent of the surgery done under the
ACC scheme happens in private hospitals, and currently about twenty
percent of the health New Zealand patients those on the
(12:47):
elective surgery waiting lists, about twenty percent get seen in
the private hospital. And I can tell you if you're
on that public waiting list and you get told that
you're going to get your long awaited surgery in a
private hospital, you're pretty happy about that.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
No one's going to say no to a knee now, Chris,
what's the public system getting so wrong when it comes
to efficiency or are you actually doing very different things
and therefore they can't cop all the blame.
Speaker 9 (13:16):
Oh, look, the public system is trying to be everything
to everybody, so it's dealing with acute surgery emergency needs.
Private hospital is all about planned care, so they're not
doing that emergency service. They can plan their week, they're
month ahead of they know which patients are coming in
(13:37):
for surgery. They're incredibly efficient at looking after those patients
and that's why it makes sense for those planned surgeries
to happen in a private facility. It's far more efficient,
it's more cost effective, and critically, it gives the patient
a better experience. They know when they're going to get
(13:57):
their surgery that they're not going to get stop the
list several times, have to prepare for surgery and miss
out and come back again. When you get booked into
a private hospital, you know when you're going to have
your surgery and you get it.
Speaker 2 (14:11):
Chris, appreciate your time this morning. Chris Roberts, the Private
Surgical Hospitals Association Chief Executive. Twenty four minutes after five,
you're on News Talks theirb I'll give you a little
update on the situation in the Middle East. Next also
the you know the alleged terrorist, the Bondai Beach gunman,
one of them. You won't believe what he's trying to
do in court. I'll tell you that shortly to Donald
(14:33):
de Mayo out of Australia after News at half five.
Speaker 1 (14:35):
The early edition Full the Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News TALKSB.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
Five twenty six News TALKSB. The war in Iran is
not a shocking event in the sense that we knew
it was coming. Trump's been not so much hinting but
sounding a foghorn for months now, and as we've been
covering on this show, as you well know, he's been
amassing military assets in the region since the end of January.
So not surprising. But what what has surprised is Iran
hitting their neighbors, the Golf States so hard, including the
(15:04):
oil fields and the refineries. This has surprised the markets,
hence what we're seeing in Asia and at home. Same
goes for the price of oil. Yesterday when we talked
about that Gold and Sax estimate of one hundred dollars
a barrel by the end of the week, we got
there by the end of Monday. Remember they also warned
of one hundred and fifty dollars a barrel by the
end of the month. Let's hope we're not there by Friday.
(15:27):
Oil and fertilizer run our agricultural sector. And yesterday I
was listening to a grain farmer in christ Church say
that daily harvesting costs on his farm would increase by
two to three thousand dollars a day already during harvesting.
We're not immune to the price spikes, but we're also
not that well insulated from them either. We're reliant on
(15:47):
energy imports to keep us afloat now more than ever.
Marsden Point used to refine seventy percent of our petrol
ninety percent of our diesel. Extracting oil and gas became
a cardinal sin under labor. You don't know what you've
got till it's gone, do you. The international shocks, which
as we all now know, aren't that shocking, are also
(16:07):
driving a surge in support for economic nationalism and self reliance.
Look at New Zealand. First, to this government's credit, it
has extended our emergency oil backup supplies, done deals with
the Singapore's of the world so that we don't run out.
Hopefully and as a backstop we're about to do LNG.
But again that's imported subject to shocks. The more global
(16:29):
events we have, the more we un for self reliance
and greater energy independence. Our world beating exports keep US afloat,
but what use are they without a reliable supply of
reasonably priced inputs that help produce them. Twenty eight minutes
after five News Talks mb SO, the alleged gunman in
(16:51):
Bondai in Sydney, Navid Arkram is his name. This is
one of the two has sought a court order to
prevent the media from publishing details of his immediate family. Why.
Because he's worried about their safety. He's worried the fact
that he allegedly went and shot up a peaceful park
(17:13):
near the beach fifteen murdered. He's worried that that reputation
might stain that of his family, and he's worried about
how people are going to treat them in public. I'm
sorry and I'm the skull. If you were worried about that,
maybe don't go and massacre Jewish people, you know. Donald
Demayo out of Australia with US Live After News and
(17:36):
Sharon Zohlner from A and Z's on the price of
oil News Talks they've been.
Speaker 1 (17:49):
The news you need this morning and the in depth
analysis early edition with Ryan Bridge and one Route Love
where you Live news talks that'd be.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
Pretty far away from the six zero on newsbooks have
the Sharon Zolan and the Gains in chief economists with
us before six is our economic recovery about to stall
because of what's happening in the Middle East they're rationing
fuel and Western Australia because of oil. Iran will speak
to Donald de Mayo out of there shortly by the way.
At the moment, Rachel Reeves, Chancellor in the UK, is
giving an update to the House of Commons. She's been
(18:23):
in a G seven meeting with other finance ministers deciding
whether they will release some strategic reserves of oil and
then hopefully calm the farm. So we'll play you some
of what she's had to say in the last few
minutes as well. Twenty three to six Bryan Bridge, God
is a Eden first, Jamie, good morning, Good morning. So
there's a study into the Hector's dolphins. What's that about.
Speaker 4 (18:44):
Yeah, So the species currently has a population just over
fifteen hundred and has four sub populations in the South Island.
They are managed under the Hectors and Marwi Dolphin Threat
Management Plan. So this study will collect genetic sample of
the dolphins determine how closely related or not they are
to neighboring populations. Department of Conservation Senior Science Advisor and
(19:07):
On Van Holden says data collected throughout the week will
support their long term protection, ensuring the species continues for
future generations.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
How's the weather.
Speaker 4 (19:17):
Mainly fine, some high cloud from afternoon, northeasterlyies developing this
morning and a higher fourteen.
Speaker 2 (19:22):
Thank you very much, Jamie Clear in christ Which morning, Claire,
Good morning. A freedom campers in North Brighton putting children
at risk.
Speaker 10 (19:30):
Yes, there has been concerns around freedom camping at North
Brighton for some time now. The Community Board of North
Beach has been considering the next steps in dealing with
the issue to put it into perspective. Effectively, you drive
down Marine Parade and there's all of these car parks
along the beach and a lot of them overnight and
through the weekend are just filled with vans and camper
vans etc. There's obviously concerned around the impact of that
(19:53):
on the environment, but now also on children. There's children
who are there's campers rather showering naked and open place.
There's waste and rubbish being left behind. The community Board's
looking for next steps. The board member Kim Money says
things have only escalated and there's real worried, a real
worry rather that a public safety, the environment and community access.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Is being compromisedness may how's your weather?
Speaker 10 (20:18):
A bit of cloud about this morning? Otherwise fine southern
east turning northeasterly and a high of sixteen.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
Thank you very much. Just before we get to Max,
by the way, that G seven Finance Minister's meeting and
the International Energy Agency they have not come to an
agreement on whether to release strategic crud reserves or not,
so no decision as yet. They say we will take
necessary measures, but they haven't actually agreed to do anything. Max.
Good morning, Good morning. They have agreed to do something
(20:43):
about a four hundred thousand dollars knees up in Wellington?
What's that about here?
Speaker 11 (20:48):
As if our city officials never learn our central Library
here is reopening and to celebrate a few brainless drones
thought it a good idea to have a four hundred
and five thousand dollars massive two day party over the
weekend to celebrate large civic ceremony, invited guests, street festival,
food trucks, road closures, performances, because apparently that's what you
(21:09):
do when a civic building gets a couple of years
of earthquake strengthening. Somewhere at the mayors off is obviously
caught wind of this and, fearing the type of headline
we saw frequently during the previous disastrous administration, put the
kibosh on the thing, or at least managed to negotiate
the cost down to about one hundred and seventy five
thousand dollars of rate payer money. Apparently the project team
(21:30):
had been operating under direct council instruction from last July.
The library back open on Monday, though it's Saturday, I
should say, the mind boggles.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
How's you winning?
Speaker 11 (21:41):
Yeah, mainly find strong southerly sixteen.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
Thank you very much, Neva, good morning, Good morning. Orcan's
Midtown has the most to gain from the Crlberican.
Speaker 12 (21:51):
Yes, Midtown so commercial real estate agency JLL Research finds
it more than ten billion dollars of private and public
investment is being pumped into that precinct. That's that area
from you know, lt Square and Skytower as well, So
it highlights that you know what, Midtown's much cheaper, much
cheaper for businesses to set up and you know, rather
(22:13):
than the waterfront and Britain. Mark Chris Dibble from JLL.
He said of research, saying that the property values their
set to also benefit. You're quite right from the city
rail link, and he says overseas example show that rents
often rises ten to twenty percent after the main train
station opens.
Speaker 2 (22:31):
So which is going to happen in September. Remember we're
still going down there.
Speaker 12 (22:34):
Rightly, Ah, have we had approval?
Speaker 2 (22:37):
No one's going.
Speaker 12 (22:37):
We are going.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
We're going anywhere.
Speaker 12 (22:39):
No one can stop us.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
Now you watch us. How's our weather fine?
Speaker 13 (22:42):
To start with?
Speaker 7 (22:42):
Cloudy?
Speaker 12 (22:42):
Period's isolated chowles this morning are HIGHR twenty.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
Four brilliant neither thank you. In nineteen minutes away from
six on news talks, he'll be we'll get to Australia,
Donald and Mayer standing by for us and we'll have
a bit of time for Sharon's old this morning AM's
chief economists. Because well, the question you want to ask
at this point is is the price of oil and
the fact that I mean it's come down overnight. By
the way, I for you're just joining us. The last
(23:05):
time I had a little squizz, it was around ninety seven.
This is Brent crude ninety seven dollars down from the
high of one hundred and almost one hundred and twenty yesterday,
which was a twenty five percent premium on the day
before that or the close before that. So the next
question is is you know, one, how long does the
whole thing go on for? And then two what impact
might that have on our recovery? Because remember what happened
(23:28):
last time when Trump Tariff's people sort of clamped up
a bit, clammed up, stopped spending. Confidence took a hit,
Business confidence took a hit, consumer confidence took a hit.
So if that happens again, what does it mean for
the recovery? Does it stall? In Q two All Ahead
News Talks, B sixteen away from six News Talks, zib
Sharon Zolder from A and Z on the way In
(23:50):
just a few moments, the G seven finance ministers have
been meeting while we have been sleeping, and they have
agreed to well do nothing at this point about releasing
strategic reserves of oil. They got a whole bunch of oil.
When the price goes crazy, they released it to calm
the farm. They've only done this five times before. The
most recent was when Russia invaded Ukraine back in twenty
(24:12):
twenty two. Here's a cook update from Rachel Reads, who
was at the meeting, now addressing the House of Commons.
Speaker 13 (24:18):
This afternoon, I spoke with G seven finance ministers setting
out my priorities for the international corporation needed. First, calling
for immediate de escalation and a return to the diplomatic process. Second,
we must guarantee the security of vessels passing through the
straight off hor moves. Third, I stand ready to support
(24:42):
a coordinated release of collective International Energy Agency oil reserves.
Speaker 2 (24:47):
On that question, the French have come out and said, quote,
we are not quite there yet.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
International correspondence with Insigne Eye Insurance Peace of mind for
New Zealand business.
Speaker 2 (24:59):
Donald Our, Australia correspondent with US Live this morning on
a good morning, Good morning to you. We've got fuel
rations starting in Western Australia.
Speaker 5 (25:07):
Yes, Well, as we watch those oil prices start to
saw fuel wholesalers are understood to have started rationing their
stock and we've heard from the federal Energy Minister, Chris Bowen,
and he says that this the panic buying and not
the supply issues that are causing or contributing to a shortage.
Now we have heard that at least two towns in
(25:29):
Wa have started banning drivers from buying fuel at all.
They're reserving it for only emergency authorities apparently. And we
also know that the Wa Premier, Roger Cooker's had to
come out and say something and he says, look, there's
no constraints on supply chains at the moment, but can
you imagine what's happening when the petrol pumps are shut.
(25:51):
This is pushing motorists to the next.
Speaker 2 (25:53):
One up the road.
Speaker 5 (25:54):
And so we're hearing reports of you know, quite lengthy queues,
you know, ten to fifteen cars at a time, all
lined and people are starting to fill their jerry cans.
We've heard from one petrol station owner who said he's
had to put a thirty liter limit on a fuel
until they can get some more fuel in. He said,
it's like a scene from a movie at the moment.
Speaker 2 (26:14):
Meanwhile, you've got hundreds of people evacuated in a too
dar and I should say in northern territory floods and
loads of crocodile sightings.
Speaker 5 (26:22):
Oh gosh, okay, I've braced yourself here. So in some
parts between two hundred and five hundred mills of rain
in five days and it looks like it's going to
last for another week. So there's been some of the
worst flooding in decades, record breaking levels. For instance, the
Dalhi River, it reached its peak yesterday at about fifteen
point three meters. It's the highest it's been since nineteen
(26:45):
ninety eight. So we've heard from the Mayor of Catherine.
In fact, the Catherine River peak yesterday at nineteen point
two meters, which is also a record. Streets are inundated.
She says he's never seen so many fresh water and
saltwater crops in local floodwaters before. And wait for it,
a crocodile was even spotted on the local footy oval. Now,
(27:07):
as someone put it, that certainly adds an element of
danger to the cleanup.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Certainly does. I don't like thinking about that stuff, but
I appreciate you your time all the same. Dona Tomorrow,
Australia correspondent, just gone twelve minutes away from six I
re all heard the doom and gloom at POSTCAB yesterday, I.
Speaker 6 (27:24):
Am advised that a quick resolution of the conflict in
the next few weeks would see the economy evolve close
to the preliminary forecasts, albeit with slightly higher inflation in
the near term. A longer conflict would likely have downside
GDP impacts.
Speaker 2 (27:39):
By the way, Brent Crew this morning has come back
from one hundred and twenty dollars of barrels now back
under one hundred dollars, still floating around a wee bit.
Sharon's Olner A and Z chief economists with us this morning. Sharon,
good morning, good morning. Give it to us straight. How
bad is this going to get?
Speaker 1 (27:56):
Well?
Speaker 8 (27:57):
Having spoken to them, major world leaders, that's the thing
that we are in no position to know. And the
Finance Minister is quite right that the duration of the
shock is just as important as the size of it.
And as regards the size of it, I mean, oil
one hundred and twenty yesterday, now it's back under one hundred.
I mean, these moves are enormous, so very very difficult
(28:18):
to gauge the severity of the shock for markets at
the moment, but yeah, some are shooting first and ask
some questions later. In terms of the market moves have
been quite ferocious. But we're seeing not just the oil
price but other prices like bond yields coming back a
bit as well, which is good because we had a
wild day yesterday in the Zealand market.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
Yeah it was pretty crazy, wasn't it. Do you think
it'll might come down a bit more today, given what's
happening with that oil price?
Speaker 8 (28:47):
Is it? Typically the New Zealand market reflects what's happened
in the US market overnight. So that I've just checked,
the US ten ure yields have come back a long way,
so the New Zealand bond yield should follow hopefully on
the open. But we will continue to follow them up
and down however the volatility goes. And that's one of
the things that is easier to be certain about at
the moment, is that solatility is going to continue because
(29:09):
markets are reacting to headlines that are all over the place, of.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
Course, and then there's our reaction to those headlines too,
both businesses and consumers. And we saw what happened with
Trump and as tariffs, you know, we all went, oh,
let's not spend any money, let's stay home. Whatever, do
you you know, is there a risk that happens here?
Does the recovery stall?
Speaker 8 (29:29):
Absolutely? Uncertainty is not great for decision making, That's always
the case. And of course we've already got an election
this year that we were wondering if that uncertainty could impact,
and the uncertainty about the global growth outlook will be
weighing on the minds of exporters for sure, and cost
inflation potentially as Well've obviously got a lot of businesses
that are exposed to energy costs. Fertilizer is another one
(29:53):
that tends to move pretty closely with oil as well.
So yeah, the uncertainty, well, let's hope it's really quickly.
But right here, right now, it feels like it's pretty
much at the maximum in terms of whether we're looking
at a short or a long term disruption to oil
markets here.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
And yet you sound quite relaxed to me. Is that
because is Sharon? Is that because you're doing your best
to sound relaxed or do you think do you think
there's an equal chance actually this could wrap up in
a week or two and everything's back to normal.
Speaker 8 (30:25):
Not looking that way, is it. But it is looking
a lot better than it was twelve hours ago in
terms of the market prices, but who knows where it
looks like twelve hours from now. But I do think
that central banks at the list will be keen to
not panic and not do anything rash in terms of
(30:46):
rushing to raise infestrates because it's inflationary for example, because
it is also bad for growth, and so the trade
off and the choices are quite stark for central banks
in terms of how they should respond to it. Our
own central bank, there's confidence and implation that looks in Febry.
I'm sure they're feeling less confident now, just because oil
is such an important input into all sorts of costs
(31:08):
and prices. But as long as inflation expectations remain well
anchored and they can tolerate a bit of noise in
the near term, rather than feel they need to deliberately
heed the recovery off in order to make sure inflations
back at two percent quickly. That's not how these things work.
But it's a very long sustained shock, and there will
(31:28):
be more difficult to look through those inflationary impacts, and
then it could get a bit ugly.
Speaker 2 (31:33):
Sharon, thank you. Sharon's on the A and Z Chief Economists.
You're on News Talk sib.
Speaker 1 (31:37):
It's eight to six, the first word on the News
of the Day Early edition with Ryan Bridge and one
Roote Love where.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
You Live, News talks'd b. These Talks sa'd be is
six minutes away from six. Has been quite a busy,
heavy hour, hasn't it. Here's Timothy Shamlow, who's the actor
who goes out with Kylie Jenner, getting himself in a
bit of trouble talking about opera and ballet.
Speaker 14 (32:00):
And some people want to be entertaining quickly. I'm really
right in the middle, Matthew, because I admire people, and
I've done it myself to want to talk toiout, Hey,
we got to keep movie theaters alive, you know, we
got to keep this genre alive. And another part of
me feels like if people want to see it like Barbie,
like Oppenheimer, they're going to go see it and go
out of the wad and be loud and proud about it.
And I don't want to be working in ballet or
(32:21):
opera or you know, things where it's like, hey, keep
this thing alive.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
Even though he's talking to Matthew McConaughey. As you can imagine,
now the ballet people and the opera people have their
tutus in a real twist. Ryan Bridge, good morning, Mike
Gating's Ryan, you have a ballet or an opera person?
Speaker 15 (32:40):
I was, I've been the worst one I ever went
to was Wagner's Demeister Singer.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
Have you ever been to that?
Speaker 15 (32:46):
It's it lasts with meal breaks, and there are meal breaks.
It lasts eight hours, oh that one. And so you
have your head, Well, this was an afternoon into evening session,
so you had a late afternoon snack and then moving
on in to dinner.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
Do you you tended to leave halfway through very much?
Where it didn't you?
Speaker 15 (33:05):
If it was, it was a good question. I think
I think actually did in the end. But I had
the two meals. I thought, well, if we're here for
the two meals, I'll do the time.
Speaker 2 (33:12):
They included in that they were part of the Oh,
there was no way they were going to keep I
mean unless you were helling Clark, There's no way you're
staying for eight hours.
Speaker 15 (33:19):
So they had to keep you there with free food.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
I get a bit of flat from friends because if
I don't like a movie, like just a normal movie
two hours two and a half hours long. If I
don't like it, I just leave the cinema and it's
you know, I'm going.
Speaker 15 (33:31):
To go to the cinema. I would I would feel
different about the television. I'd walk away from a movie.
I watched a movie I can't you remember what it
was the other day ten minutes and I thought this
is crap.
Speaker 2 (33:41):
I was gone.
Speaker 15 (33:42):
That was the end of that.
Speaker 2 (33:42):
See now you add up how many ten minutes we
waste have we wasted on starting movies and not finishing them?
Speaker 15 (33:48):
Yeah, and imagine all the money you've saved over the
years that you can now put into your petrol now.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
That you count you don't afford it.
Speaker 15 (33:55):
Yeah, quite right to say it's below one hundred and two.
By the way, so yesterday was I think a bit
of an apparition.
Speaker 2 (33:59):
But we'll do all the numbers. Fantastic work at work
it through Crystal Ballert and hey, the G seven will
save us well. Marvey News Talks be Marke next La.
Speaker 1 (34:11):
Continne For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen
live to News Talk Set B from five am weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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