May 12, 2026 • 34 mins
On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast 2026, Jim Chalmers 4th Australian Federal Budget is out, Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold shares his thoughts.
According to Cotality Kiwis are holding on to their homes longer than ever, Property Investors Federation Advocacy Manager Matt Ball shares his thoughts.
Trump tariff woes are back for Kiwi lamb exporters, Federated Farmers Meat and Wool Chair Richard Dawkins shares his concerns.
Plus, UK/Europe Correspondent Gavin Grey has the latest on UK Ministers calling for Sir Keir Starmer to stand down and UK Government borrowing costs jumped today amid uncertainty over the future of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The issues, the interviews and the insight. Ryan Bridge on
early edition with Spark for business Technology that keeps business
moving news talks.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
They'd be good morning, it is Wednesday. Great to have
your company. Trump's hopping on a plane to Beijing right now.
Starmer is about to get the boot. We've got Gavin
in London for us. The Americans are coming for our
LAMB exports details on that, plus the Aussies are coming
for property investors.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
The agenda.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
It is Wednesday, the thurninth of May. UK labor ministers
are dropping like fliers calling through a star at a
stand down.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
What was really clear from talking to my constituents was
that the Prime Minister had lost their trust and their
confidence and they did not believe that he could deliver
the scale and the pace of change that we have
a mandate fault and that my community deserves. And in
the end that was the thing that drove my decision, not.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Just backbench as but ministers. I should suggest Phillips, one
of them. One of Starmer's most influential compair.
Speaker 4 (00:56):
That was when Boris Johnson was on the way out.
I remember within half a now of each other Saji
Javid quit and then Rishi Sunac quit big senior figures
in the cabinet, and of course others followed. So we
haven't had. If we get a resignation from the cabinet,
well wow, we're on our way.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
Which we've had, and I tell you what, it is
a different kettle of fish. The Labor Party in the
UK to the Conservatives, O time Minister has my full support.
The Labor Party has a process for triggering a leadership
election that has not happened.
Speaker 5 (01:30):
We are working hard on the big issues that are
facing the country and kir is.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Showing really steadfast leadership.
Speaker 6 (01:36):
We'll do what we were elected to do, which is
served the British people.
Speaker 7 (01:41):
The primis to has my full support.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
Over in Australia, Charmers is delivered as budget as predicted,
the negative gearing text, deductions now limited to new built
investment properties, a lot of changes that sound very just
sinder esk in grant Esk. Not everyone happy.
Speaker 8 (01:57):
Angus Taylor used to call you sneaky.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
I mean you are, aren't you?
Speaker 9 (02:01):
But this you could have said at any moment during
that campaign you were intending this.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
So why not just be up.
Speaker 10 (02:06):
Front what we said at the election and what we meant,
and it's become increasingly clear to us that this challenge,
the intersection of the housing market and the tax system,
is locking too many young people out of the aspiration
that comes with owning your own home. And so we've
come to a different view on this policy.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
All the detail you need to know on that. In
twenty minutes, finally back home due to Collins is bound
out of Parliament.
Speaker 7 (02:27):
To my dearest friends in Parliament, my Corpus colleagues, and
i'm many good friends on the opposing teams, I bid farewell.
I now leave politics behind and move into an apolitical
world with Gusto and even Relish. I'm over politics and
looking forward to going back to my first loves, my
family in the law.
Speaker 10 (02:47):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Well well the great speech. We'll have more on it
throughout the program. This morning, nine after five before the.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
News breaks here at first Ryan Bridge on early edition
with for Business Technology that keeps Business moving, News talks
there'd b it.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Is nine after five. Great to have your company this morning.
Nine two ninety two is the number to text. In
Labour's one hundred and twenty six year history over in
the UK, there has never been an official leadership challenge
to a sitting Prime minister, and there still isn't one,
to be fair, and this is where they differentiate themselves
from the Conservatives, where you got the nineteen twenty two committee.
You need in order to get a leadership change within
(03:28):
the Labor Party, especially while they're in government, you need
twenty percent of MPs. You need eighty one MPs. And
you don't need eighty one MPs to say we don't
like this guy. You need eighty one MPs to say
we want this guy or this girl. However you want
to say that they need a challenger in the Labor Party,
that is the difference, and they don't have one yet
(03:49):
and everyone's saying, oh, what about Andy Burnham, Well, Andy
Burnham is not an MP. The interesting thing about that,
and so they just basically need to coalesce around someone
and then they can force the thing. Although Starma could
do what happened with Gordon Brown, which is where your
incumbent doesn't decide to contest. If you get a challenger,
your incumbent doesn't decide to contest and then yeah, Gordon
(04:11):
Brown becomes your de facto leader. Now, the interesting thing
is that is what happens with Burnham because there could
be a by election which he may not win, so
there's a risk to begin with, but you need him
to be in the House of Commons in order to
be eligible. And then if this process kicks off, so
let's say they back someone, Let's say it's Angela Rainer, right,
(04:33):
they back Angela Raine and say we want Angela to
be the leader. So there's a challenge, and then it
could take a month, could take months actually, because then
if there's a contest, it has to go to the
wider party. So every man and his dog gets to say,
there's three hundred thousand labor members over in Britain. So
but what they reckon they could do is have Rainer
in there as a stalking horse, as a substitute, and
(04:57):
then you get Burnham in in a by election, and
then you do a switcheroo and he becomes the Rainer,
he becomes the leader. Very gray area this, by the way,
but it's something that's been talked about over there at
the moment. But I mean it's a matter of time.
He's a dead man walking as a secure starmer and
pity the successor. I mean, it's a bit like the
(05:19):
National Party here isn't it. I mean, there was obviously
a bit of grumbling, bit of mood for change in
the backbenches. But then who puts their name up? No one?
Why because politics right now is a poison Chalice Bryan
even after five So some interesting numbers for you on
property Q one property sales. This is an interest dot
co dot NZ piece which I found fascinating. Not good
(05:41):
for apartment owners, not good for investors. Forty one percent
of apartments resold in Q one of this year sold
at a loss compared to their purchase price. Nearly fourteen
percent of properties sold by investors also sold at a loss. Overall,
the number was twelve point two percent, so one in
(06:01):
ten properties in Q one of this year sold at
a loss. That figure has been going up since late
twenty twenty one when it was less than one percent.
We'll have details on that for you shortly.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
News talks headbig herett the first Ryan Bridge on early
edition with Spark for business technology that keeps business moving.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
News Talks AB seventy seven billion dollars of net tax
increases across the Tasman and Jim Chalmer's fifth budget will
have details with Cali Ecole before six this morning. Last
night it was Judith Collins and in politics you need
a bit of resilience.
Speaker 7 (06:38):
It has often commented that I have a bit of resilience. Well,
I you don't get to be resilient unless you have
to be, and I sometimes quit that adversity is just
an opportunity show character. So much adversity, so much character.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Farmers fall the past five Todd McLay Reckins. In the
next couple of weeks, Trump will come for our lamb
exports and the Aussies too, looks like they're going to
launch an investigation. He's spoken to us about this before,
into whether they threatened local producers our exports. By the way,
Lamb to the US with six hundred million last year.
Richard Dawkins fed Farmer's Meat and woelchair with me. Richard,
(07:20):
Good morning, Richard, you're there, Yeah, good morning, good morning,
very well, thank you. The timing of this obviously coming
off the back of the failed the court ruling on
the tariffs, and we're still paying a tariff on what
we're exporting. But how significant is our export to the US.
How damaging would it be if they threaten it?
Speaker 11 (07:44):
Look, the US is a significant trading partner, especially for
sheet meat. But overall last year they took thirteen percent
of our total exports, so an important relationship that companies
like Silversans Farms look, they experts around sixty countries, so
the industry does have the ability to pivot. This needs be.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
It's the local producers that are pushing this, isn't it
the Republicans. There were thirty six Republican members of Congress
signed letters to Trump officials they wanted this probe. They
also have introduced a bill proposing a thirty percent tariff
on all lamb and sheep products imported from New Zealand
and Australia.
Speaker 11 (08:24):
Yeah, that's right, and I can gather the American sheep
industry have certainly been pushing for it as well, which yeah,
is very protectionists. It is a wee bit frustrating Ryan
and that we produce high quality product and it's quite
complementary to their production seasons. It really enhances their market
and it allows the American consumer to get a taste
(08:45):
for lamb, which has beneficial flow on effects for the
American producers as well.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
I've had a look at the part of the section
of law section two one and two or two of
the US Trade Act. Basically, they can impose tariffs if
this and instigation finds that it is causing or threatening
to cause injury to their domestic industry.
Speaker 11 (09:07):
Yeah, so you would hope the findings of that would
show you the actual complementary nature of this trade. But
I'll just say for sheep farmers on the ground in
New Zealand, I mean, we can't control this. We have
to focus on what we can control, and the industry
is in a really good space at the moment, strong
returns across the board, a pretty favorable climate as well,
(09:29):
So we'll focus on that and like I said, we
can pivot to other markets if required, but I don't
think it would get to that point.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
All right, good to know. Richard Dawkins fed Farmers, Meat
and woelschair Good TV on the show this morning time
is seventeen minutes after five Ryan Bread US Just to hand,
one hundred and ten labor MPs as signed a statement
opposing a leadership contest. They say, last week we had
a devastatingly tough set of election results. It shows we
had we have a hard job ahead to win back
(09:56):
trust from the electric That job does need to start
today with all of us working together to deliver the
change the country needs. We must focus on that. This
is no time for a leadership contest. So you now
have more people saying we won't do it than you
do will do it. But that doesn't necessarily mean it
won't happen, does it? Eighteen after and he just looks
(10:17):
like when you turn on your TV this morning, looks
like a dead man walking eighteen after five News talks,
he'd be those property doun details. Next, the first.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
Word on the News of the Day Early edition with
Ryan Bridge and Spark for Business Technology that keeps Business
Moving News talksb.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
March Crown accounts out yesterday. Deficit narrows, but the worrying
thing is your GST receipts are a the canary and
the coal mine. So yeah, it does look better than
it did at the hay for the deficit that is. However,
when you look at March twenty six GST revenue, it
was two point zero six seven billion. That is down
four point four percent on March twenty twenty five, and
(10:59):
it is even lower than the two point zero eighty
five billion in March of twenty twenty four. That is
not a good sign. The other thing you've got here
is individuals us paying our income tax up seven point
one percent from a year earlier, and that is boosted
no doubt by bracket creep, where you get paid more
you shift into a higher tax bracket. Twenty one after
(11:22):
five cry and Bridge, so Kiwis are holding onto their
homes longer than ever. New cotality data shows the median
ownership is now ten years, matching an all time record.
Fewer people are cashing in big In fact, one in
ten selling at a loss. It's up from one percent
that was several years ago back in twenty twenty one.
Matt Ball Property Investors Federation is with us this morning,
(11:43):
Get a Matt Oday, Ryan. So it's apartment owners and
it's also investors who are more likely to sell for
a loss.
Speaker 9 (11:51):
Right, Yeah, that's right. But that's right across the board.
As people are holding onto their houses longer and getting
less of a profit or making a loss.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
You're more likely to make a loss if you sell sooner,
aren't you. I think four point two years was the
medium length of ownership for a loss making property. So
you hold it longer, you're less likely to sell for
a loss.
Speaker 9 (12:12):
Yeah, that's true, Ryan, But there's two factors in there.
One is that we had that peak house prices about
four or five years ago, So there's a bunch of
people who got caught out buying at the top of
the market and then obviously having to sell. Or if
it's an investor, maybe they're just going to cut their
losses and put that money into something else. The other
thing to think about here is inflation. Over that ten
(12:32):
year period, general CPI was thirty six percent, So even
though making a so called profit, aren't going to be
doing that well.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
And it also doesn't take into account what you might
have done to the place in the meantime.
Speaker 9 (12:44):
Right, No, absolutely, right. I mean this is quite interesting.
I think this is the end of the casual investor era.
You can't just bug some money on a house and
think you're going to make a profit.
Speaker 11 (12:54):
You've actually got to.
Speaker 9 (12:54):
Work for your money. I think it's the end of
the treat your house like an atm erar. You can't
just come from the house price going up and covering
all your debts, the boat and the bats that you
put on and whatever else. So that's changed. The good
news is if you're just buying a house to live in,
that's perfectly fine. And if you're a professional investor, you
know you're someone who's buying a rundown house, bring it
(13:17):
up to then resell it because you put some work in,
that's fine. And if you're buying and holding and you're
went into people and providing a own and making a
living out of that, that's fine as well.
Speaker 2 (13:28):
Are we going to see more corporate style landlords as
opposed to mum and dad landlords.
Speaker 9 (13:37):
That's an interesting question. That's actually a trend that you've
seen overseas, and some of the changes to the rules
and regulations don't favor the mum and dad investor. I
think you probably will see a bit of a drop
in that. And because it won't be the casual investor,
someone who's just thinking, oh heck, I better get in
(13:57):
here because everyone else is making money, so I do it.
It will be investors with purpose who want to run
a rental accommodation business, who enjoy providing homes for other
people and know how to make money out of it.
That's the group that will rise.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Good stuff. Matt Matt Bull Properly Investors Federation time is
twenty four minutes after five rayan bridge to the use
very quickly, twenty nine billion dollars. Now the Bill for
fighting the War with Iran Pete Higgseth before another committee
talking about how they might re escalate the thing.
Speaker 12 (14:28):
I would say, we have a plan for all of that.
We have a plan to escalate if necessary. We have
a plan to retrograde if necessary, we have a plan
to shift assets. Certainly, in this setting we wouldn't reveal
what the next step may be, considering the gravity of
the mission that the President is undertaking to ensure that
Iran never has a nuclear bond.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Gavin Gray with us from the UK on All the
Star and Drama at about quarter two this morning. That's
in about half an hour. Next I'll run you through
the Aussie budget, the bits that we really need to know.
Speaker 1 (14:57):
The early edition full the show podcast on IARM Radio.
Now it by News.
Speaker 11 (15:02):
Talks at me.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
Twenty seven after five News Talks be give them an
inch and they'll take a mile. That is basically the
message to anyone worried about a capital gains tax in
New Zealand. In Canberra last night, Jim Charmer's budget was
pitched as a rebalancing of intergenerational inequality. Fewer young people
own homes in Australia, so they've picked grandkids against grandparents
(15:25):
and made tax changes to negative gearing and capital gains.
Negative gearing is where landlords make a loss on their
property your income your renter is less than your expenses,
and you claim the difference is a tax deduction on
other income. It's a benefit. This, by the way, is
something they said that they wouldn't touch and now they have.
Albanezian charmers ran an election campaign say they wouldn't do
(15:47):
this in the same way their key we labor colleagues
claim their capital gains tax will be limited in scope
and scale. But what does it achieve. The median cost
of a Sydney house one point seven million, the country
median almost one million, and that's more than Kiwi prices.
By the way, try by a house in Melbourne. Good luck,
God speak to you. The reason these changes are not
(16:07):
going to change the game for any young Australian or
young Kiwi flying the coup is simple supply as anyone
with a townhouse in West Auckland right now well knows
the fastest way to lower prices to build more of
the things supply and demand. It is basic and these
changes in Australia, fewer homes will be built, not more
(16:29):
Master bills Australias. Is the number of homes built in
future as a direct result, will go down in the
budget treasury. Charmer's own treasury reckons thirty five thousand fewer
homes will be built over the next decade and that
is not a recipe for rebalancing intergenerational inequality. If you
(16:49):
ask me, Bryan Bridge five twenty eight News Talk seb
We've got inflation numbers out of the US. By the way,
consumer price is up three point eight percent for April
from a year earlier. This is high gas prices driving it.
In fact, if you look at the energy mix, forty
of the monthly increase was energy and if you strip
(17:11):
those out, core inflation was two point eight percent. Surprising.
No beef, they've got problems with beef over there. They
are the same ones we do. You want to buy
mints at a supermarket at costco. Good luck everybody, Right,
We'll get to the UK and the latest on Starmer's leadership.
(17:32):
Wose that's coming up in twenty minutes.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
Get ahead of the headlines on early edition with Ryan
Bridge and Spark for Business Technology that keeps Business moving
US talks at B.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
Twenty four. Away from the six News talks, you'd be
we'll get to Kelly Ekov from Westpac on the Aussie
budget before six this morning, and very shortly we will
cross to London find out what's happening with Starmer who's
still got a job. Staying there for a second though.
You know the Green Party leader over there, what's his name? Polanski,
Zach Polanski. This is the guy I've told you about
(18:21):
before who said that he claimed to be able to
make a women's breasts bigger using hypnosis. It's true. This
is the Green guy. This is the guy that Chloe
Swarbrick stopped in to see when she was over in
London to have a little greeting with her meeting with
the Green counterpart. So he claimed to be able to
make women's breast bigger, then later apologize for the claim,
(18:42):
which I would have thought. You know, there are such
an evidence based party, aren't they, the Greens. They like
to always have evidence for something. I mean, where is
the evidence that you can use hypnosis to make a
woman's booms bigger? The only way to do. That is Bolton's,
isn't it. Everyone knows that facts Now he has just
been found to be staying at a two million pound
property in Hackney owned by a fellow Green politician. The
(19:05):
reason this is newsworthy is that he was living on
a houseboat or partially living on a houseboat. And what
it turns out has happened in the last twenty four
hours is, according to the Times, he wasn't paying council
tax that he should have been paying while he was
living on this houseboat. They reckon up to three years
(19:27):
worth has not been paid. So he's in the spot
of bothered. This morning twenty two away from six Bryan
Bridge to go to our reporters Callum in Dunedin. Morning Callum,
Morning Ryan. What's the update on the by election?
Speaker 13 (19:38):
The progress result here has Joe Gayla winning the vacant
council seats Sir Ryan Gayla, a former journalist and Comm's
pr specialist. Eighty five percent of the voting papers have
been counted and Gala's leading the way, less than eight
hundred votes clear of former mayor Aaron Hawkins, who's second,
but Hawkins appears to have conceded to Gala He says
(19:58):
he offered experienced and progressive leadership, but the community's gone
down a different path. Gaylas said her priorities were fixing
the drainage problems and infrastructure in South Dunedin while supporting
Dunedin's economic well being. The Spy election, sparked by the
unexpected death of counselor and former med Dules Radick back
in January, still special votes to come in and the
late votes to be counted, so preliminary results later today,
(20:21):
the final result tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
All right, how's your weather? Shower? Is clear to find
this afternoon fifteen? The high nice one clear on christ
Church Morning, Claire, good morning. Why is caring order selling
and old christ Church Holiday Park?
Speaker 14 (20:34):
Oh, I've actually scrapped that story for you, Ryan, because
I've got some better news that's just landed. I'm telling
you about the fact that there is more money going
to christ Church Cathedral after all. So Christchurch City Council
is planning to give another fifteen million dollars of taxpayers
money to restore the cathedral. What's interesting about this, though,
is that only fifteen percent of twelve hundred submitters actually
(20:55):
support doing that. Thirty five percent say absolutely not. What
Council is proposing to do is use thirty.
Speaker 15 (21:00):
Five point eight million of the forecast forty four point
four million dollars they'll save from the annual budget in
order to go towards some of our iconic equake damage
to buildings now. As well as the cathedral, there'll also
be some money for Canterbury Museum. That's another fifteen million
dollars plus a loan which would be paid back via
a levy on international visitors. At this stage, the Arts
(21:22):
Center and the Canterbury Provincial Chambers miss out on extra money,
despite the public actually supporting that a bit more. The
council money, though, is dependent on some support from central
government too, so we'll see what happens there.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Some late breaking news this morning, Claire, I've got to
have it.
Speaker 16 (21:36):
How's your weather for Christchurch today?
Speaker 14 (21:38):
Cloudy, There is a few showers for Banks Peninsula and
the Chance elsewhere as well.
Speaker 6 (21:42):
Southwesterlies and fifteen.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Degrees nice one. Thank you.
Speaker 5 (21:44):
A bit of rock and roll for you last night, Max, Well, yes,
but don't let anyone tell you otherwise. It was a
very light earthquake four point one, sort of around cook
straight twenty five kilometers south of Wellington Felton, Pickton and
then further up the coast here in car about six
thousand people reporting it on a Geo neet. One person
(22:05):
in Corori said this said earthquake felt like a jolt
and a pop. Another described it like a thud. Felt
like only half the lounge shook, they said. One other
person said it felt a little more sudden and sharp
in southern Wellington. I can tell you I didn't feel
it at all, but they're being from christ Church perhaps
more accustomed to these sorts of things. Yeah, lied earthquake
(22:25):
in Wellington last night about six o'clock.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
I if you didn't feel it, Max, it didn't happen
exact in the forest. How's your weather?
Speaker 5 (22:32):
Yes, overcast with the odd shower Southerly's twelfth.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
Nice don't thank you, Neva, good morning, good morning. How
do you only feel the earthquake and half your lounge?
I know one side you're on the fault line anyway.
So you're talking about the biggest crane soon to tower
over Auckland's mongody.
Speaker 6 (22:51):
It's correct. So look this mess of crane. Now it
has to be assembled on site using another crane, but
it's the only one capable of lifting a new hype section.
So this is going to be put into place at
Hudda near creek in Mangai. This will mean that the
creek will soon be able to carry water freely to
the harbor instead of backing up. So this change is
(23:11):
expected to reduce the flood levels to at least forty
five properties. So it's all part of Auckland Councils seven
hundred and sixty million dollars flood Resilience program and apparently
that's due for completion mid twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (23:24):
How exciting.
Speaker 6 (23:25):
How's our weather, Neva, fine, becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.
No rain though. Eighteen is the high.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
I saw a headline yesterday that said temperatures in Auckland
and not just Auckland, presumably the rest of the country
to plummet to September levels. I'm like, yeah, so season
is changing.
Speaker 6 (23:40):
Well, that's all right, it's supposed to be. We were
talking about that in the news room. Actually, so next week,
you know. But even for us overnight low of eight
I know everyone around the country and go, oh shut up,
had enough plund.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
Today, you don't know, Thank you, Neva. It is eighteen
minutes away from six and Bridge, So tariff's on the agenda.
Trump is heading to Beijing, He's going to meet with She.
Tariffs on the agenda. Of course, they reached one hundred
and forty five percent, remember that one hundred and forty
five percent. However, they reach the truce in October, the
straight will be on the agenda. But the big issue
for and it's I'll tell you in a minute, who's going.
(24:12):
But the big issue for she is the risk of
a global recession. Because you've got to remember that about
a fifth of China's GDP comes from exports. If the
rest of the world is poorer or in recession, they're
not going to buy as many of those exports. That's
a problem for Beijing. Guess who's going on the trip
with Trump? Tim Cook, Apple Okay, Elon Musk hoping to
(24:37):
do a deal seventeen away from six were in London next.
Markets are being a bit jumpy lately. It's fair to
say we've had the war in the Middle East, oil
prices a bunch of uncertainty, and when that hits your investments,
it's hard not to worry, and it's natural that you do.
I'd be concerned if you weren't. But volatility isn't new,
and it doesn't mean that your long term plans stop working.
(24:58):
In fact, you need a flip the thinking here. A
little bit market dips can work in your favor if
you're making regular contributions, because those regular contributions can buy
more units when the unit prices are lower, and that
can translate into long term gains when the markets ultimately
recover again. That discipline underpins Milford's approach to active long
(25:19):
term management of its Keiwisaver funds. Morning Star data shows
Milford's Kiwisaver funds have delivered the highest returns over the
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It is the issue of the Milford Kiwisaver Plan. Go
(25:41):
to Milford Asset dot com to read the Milford Keiwisavi
Plan product disclosure statement and Milford's Financial Advice provided disclosure Statement.
Speaker 1 (25:49):
International correspondence with NS and Eye Insurance Peace of Mind
for New Zealand Business.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
So Health Sectrey We're streeting over in the UK, apparently
going to meet with Starma to myrow, what is on
the agenda? Well, hi, wonder Devin Grays with us, given
what's the lightest here.
Speaker 17 (26:05):
Well, yes, Wes Street. He'm probably going to say give
me a job or else, but we don't know. It's
a high stakes game this because if you file the
starting gun too early you could end up losing and
be banished. Of course, otherwise, timing it right means you
could get the prize job of Prime Minister Sekir. Starma, though,
is hanging on by a thread. Today four ministers have resigned.
(26:29):
Eighty six of his own MPs have formally come out
and said that he should resign or set out a
timetable for his resignation, and therefore that represents coming on
to one in four of his own MPs. Meanwhile, one
hundred and ten MPs of his have signed a statement
opposing a leadership contest, saying that it would be bad
(26:51):
for the country and indeed plenty of people are agreeing
that this uncertainty is not good. Today in London was
the King of the North, the mayor of Graad de Manster,
Andy Burnham. He was in London seeking support and a seat,
probably needing to do that quite soon. Because he's mayor,
he is not an MP, so he can't become the
(27:11):
Prime minister. But it's thought at least four MPs have
offered him their seat. It would need a by election,
but it would mean one of them would resign. Andy
Burnham stands Andy Burnham gets the seat and then goes
from there, and that looks to be perhaps the most
likely at the moment scenario. But honestly, as I speak,
we're probably going to get more resignations and a week
(27:32):
is a long time in politics.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
And just to clarify for people, this is different from
the Conservatives. It doesn't matter how many people oppose you
these eighty sixty en piece of posing. You actually need
eighty one to get behind a colist, behind a challenger
in labor right.
Speaker 17 (27:47):
Yes, and that needs to be a formal letter and
that needs to go in front of the relevant authorities.
And at the moment that is not a figure that
has been attained. So Sir Kirstarmer was out and about
today visiting a college in London alongside the Work and
Pension Secretary. But there's no doubt that you know the
(28:07):
numbers are building. The number of ministers regularly tops up.
I'm tall, I'm told that more could go as well
in the next few hours. It is a pretty untenable
message and the markets are not liking this. Today the
foot Sea one hundred dropped half of one percent and
then at the end of the day managed to climb
its way pretty even. So pound down against zero, the
(28:30):
pound is down against the US dollar. It is very,
very full of turnil at the moment.
Speaker 11 (28:35):
All right.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Kevin Gray are UK europe correspondent. By the way, the
UK government borrowing costs have jumped to the highest level
overnight since two thousand and eight, since the global financial crisis,
because of all the uncertainty, touching five point one three
percent on ten year eleven to six. Ryan Bridge some
Charmer's fifth budget across the ditch seventy seven billion dollars
a nit new Texas deficit stays by the way until
(28:57):
twenty thirty five.
Speaker 10 (28:59):
This is the most important and ambitious budget in decades.
Important because the world is throwing a lot of us
and this budget is about helping Australia deal with those challenges.
And ambitious because we have so much going for us,
and this budget is about Australia seizing those opportunities.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
Your Rossie Batler's you work is five dollars a week
tax cut for you, negative gearing, capital gains tax breaks
scaled back for your investors and property owners. Kelly, you're
cold Wistpact Chief economist with us LIME this morning, Kelly,
good morning, Good morning.
Speaker 8 (29:31):
Your thoughts well, I mean, I think for the financial
markets this was a bit of a wash because probably
the amount of debt hitting the market is not very
much different than they expected, but it certainly is a
reasonably expansionary budget on net.
Speaker 9 (29:48):
And if I look at what.
Speaker 8 (29:50):
Lucy Ellis, my boss in Australia saying, is this issue
of a bit of a tailor two horizons there where
I mean at the starting point for that Ossie economy,
it's been doing well. That's why THERBA has been tightening
this year. So the government's seen a bit of revenue
from that, so that's good. But then they are spending
more money and all of the savings measures that are
(30:10):
designed to pay for all of this are backloaded because
it's going to take away while before things like capital
gains taxes etc. Start to add to the coffers. So
there's quite a lot of risk there, particularly since most
of those initiatives have to go through legislation. And my
understanding is that some of those oppositions, some of those
other coalition parties, are not supporting some of these things.
(30:32):
So they might be spending a bit of money now,
but they might not get the savings later.
Speaker 2 (30:37):
Plus you've got the thirty six billion I think they
want to cut from the disability insurance scheme. All these things,
as you say, are going to take time to happen
and are not even guaranteed to happen.
Speaker 8 (30:46):
That was my point. Yeah, particularly on that the savings scheme.
I mean, I think that's their equivalent basis seed. You
know how challenging it is to start coming back. The
other thing I'll say is that the assumptions, the economic
assumptions are here. They're quite a bit more rosy than
my colleagues in Australia have in terms of, for example,
where unemployment's going to peak. They say, actually, you're going
to peak at four and a half percent. I would
(31:08):
have thought that's pretty fanciful in the current environment.
Speaker 2 (31:12):
Kelly, you're cold a book very quickly before you go property.
They are you know, scaling back negative gearing that are
doing the tax changes to property investors, and yet the
Treasury's own estimates say it's going to result in fewer
houses being built there.
Speaker 8 (31:29):
Yeah, well, I guess everybody's got a view when they
when they kind of like model these these things through.
I mean, obviously the increase it's a less less positive
environment for investors, isn't it. So I think ordinarily you
might expect to be some supply implications are there.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
Kelly are called Westpac. It is eight to six News
Talk SEB.
Speaker 1 (31:51):
On your radio and online on iHeartRadio Belly Edition with
Ryan Bridge and Spark for Business Technology that keeps is
this movie news talks there'd be.
Speaker 2 (32:01):
You had loads of text this morning about Judith Collins
and her valedictory in the House yesterday. It was a
good speech, and people have been pointing out the fact
that Chris Hopkins wasn't there, How rude, how disrespectful, et cetera.
I mean, you never know, they probably had other events
to go to. But Judith Collins did make a funny
quick about when she announced her resignation.
Speaker 7 (32:19):
I would like to acknowledge that the true news of
my resignation because I Shall never retire was greeted with
an outpouring of love around Parliament and it was so
lovely that I thought I died.
Speaker 2 (32:33):
So as they didn't go on for too long, which
is key news talks, he'd be Bryan Bridge, good morning,
Mike morning. What do you reckon about? What did you
see the valedictri? Yes, I did.
Speaker 16 (32:43):
It was eighteen minutes, which you're correct that she didn't
go on for that. Some of them going halfway were
those things I like what I did like? So she
introduced tases yes for the police, and she introduced no
smoking in prison.
Speaker 2 (32:55):
No smoking.
Speaker 16 (32:55):
And what was interesting about those two stories, as she recounted,
was at the time and it's just so classic of
the news cycle whenever you say something I'm going to
do X Y or Z, it's just roll out the
endless people who were forecasting the doom and the misery
and how it's right and these None of it happened.
It was going to be riots in the prison, None
of it ever happened. So it's interesting, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (33:14):
And also having to convince I thought it was really
insightful actually that you have to convince your own colleagues
of a lot of things first before you even get
to it, because it was.
Speaker 16 (33:24):
Pretty legal, which was interesting. So anyway, she's on the
program this morning. It's something she remained relevant to my eye.
So it's length of time versus relevance. So nothing wrong
with being there for a long time if you're still relevant.
She's seemed relevant for the whole time. A lot of portfolios,
a lot of decisions, a lot of jobs, and she
leaves something tangible behind that you can point to that's
(33:45):
not bad at.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
And especially the sort of lowly portfolio she was given
at the very beginning, and that what's wrong with the
National Library is hardly inspiring.
Speaker 16 (33:56):
Anyway, she's with us, among other things.
Speaker 2 (33:58):
Fantastic, have a great day. Everybody, see you tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (34:10):
For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live
to News Talks. It'd be from five am weekdays, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
The issues, the interviews and the insight. Ryan Bridge on
early edition with Spark for business Technology that keeps business
moving news talks.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
They'd be good morning, it is Wednesday. Great to have
your company. Trump's hopping on a plane to Beijing right now.
Starmer is about to get the boot. We've got Gavin
in London for us. The Americans are coming for our
LAMB exports details on that, plus the Aussies are coming
for property investors.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
The agenda.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
It is Wednesday, the thurninth of May. UK labor ministers
are dropping like fliers calling through a star at a
stand down.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
What was really clear from talking to my constituents was
that the Prime Minister had lost their trust and their
confidence and they did not believe that he could deliver
the scale and the pace of change that we have
a mandate fault and that my community deserves. And in
the end that was the thing that drove my decision, not.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Just backbench as but ministers. I should suggest Phillips, one
of them. One of Starmer's most influential compair.
Speaker 4 (00:56):
That was when Boris Johnson was on the way out.
I remember within half a now of each other Saji
Javid quit and then Rishi Sunac quit big senior figures
in the cabinet, and of course others followed. So we
haven't had. If we get a resignation from the cabinet,
well wow, we're on our way.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
Which we've had, and I tell you what, it is
a different kettle of fish. The Labor Party in the
UK to the Conservatives, O time Minister has my full support.
The Labor Party has a process for triggering a leadership
election that has not happened.
Speaker 5 (01:30):
We are working hard on the big issues that are
facing the country and kir is.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Showing really steadfast leadership.
Speaker 6 (01:36):
We'll do what we were elected to do, which is
served the British people.
Speaker 7 (01:41):
The primis to has my full support.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
Over in Australia, Charmers is delivered as budget as predicted,
the negative gearing text, deductions now limited to new built
investment properties, a lot of changes that sound very just
sinder esk in grant Esk. Not everyone happy.
Speaker 8 (01:57):
Angus Taylor used to call you sneaky.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
I mean you are, aren't you?
Speaker 9 (02:01):
But this you could have said at any moment during
that campaign you were intending this.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
So why not just be up.
Speaker 10 (02:06):
Front what we said at the election and what we meant,
and it's become increasingly clear to us that this challenge,
the intersection of the housing market and the tax system,
is locking too many young people out of the aspiration
that comes with owning your own home. And so we've
come to a different view on this policy.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
All the detail you need to know on that. In
twenty minutes, finally back home due to Collins is bound
out of Parliament.
Speaker 7 (02:27):
To my dearest friends in Parliament, my Corpus colleagues, and
i'm many good friends on the opposing teams, I bid farewell.
I now leave politics behind and move into an apolitical
world with Gusto and even Relish. I'm over politics and
looking forward to going back to my first loves, my
family in the law.
Speaker 10 (02:47):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Well well the great speech. We'll have more on it
throughout the program. This morning, nine after five before the.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
News breaks here at first Ryan Bridge on early edition
with for Business Technology that keeps Business moving, News talks
there'd b it.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Is nine after five. Great to have your company this morning.
Nine two ninety two is the number to text. In
Labour's one hundred and twenty six year history over in
the UK, there has never been an official leadership challenge
to a sitting Prime minister, and there still isn't one,
to be fair, and this is where they differentiate themselves
from the Conservatives, where you got the nineteen twenty two committee.
You need in order to get a leadership change within
(03:28):
the Labor Party, especially while they're in government, you need
twenty percent of MPs. You need eighty one MPs. And
you don't need eighty one MPs to say we don't
like this guy. You need eighty one MPs to say
we want this guy or this girl. However you want
to say that they need a challenger in the Labor Party,
that is the difference, and they don't have one yet
(03:49):
and everyone's saying, oh, what about Andy Burnham, Well, Andy
Burnham is not an MP. The interesting thing about that,
and so they just basically need to coalesce around someone
and then they can force the thing. Although Starma could
do what happened with Gordon Brown, which is where your
incumbent doesn't decide to contest. If you get a challenger,
your incumbent doesn't decide to contest and then yeah, Gordon
(04:11):
Brown becomes your de facto leader. Now, the interesting thing
is that is what happens with Burnham because there could
be a by election which he may not win, so
there's a risk to begin with, but you need him
to be in the House of Commons in order to
be eligible. And then if this process kicks off, so
let's say they back someone, Let's say it's Angela Rainer, right,
(04:33):
they back Angela Raine and say we want Angela to
be the leader. So there's a challenge, and then it
could take a month, could take months actually, because then
if there's a contest, it has to go to the
wider party. So every man and his dog gets to say,
there's three hundred thousand labor members over in Britain. So
but what they reckon they could do is have Rainer
in there as a stalking horse, as a substitute, and
(04:57):
then you get Burnham in in a by election, and
then you do a switcheroo and he becomes the Rainer,
he becomes the leader. Very gray area this, by the way,
but it's something that's been talked about over there at
the moment. But I mean it's a matter of time.
He's a dead man walking as a secure starmer and
pity the successor. I mean, it's a bit like the
(05:19):
National Party here isn't it. I mean, there was obviously
a bit of grumbling, bit of mood for change in
the backbenches. But then who puts their name up? No one?
Why because politics right now is a poison Chalice Bryan
even after five So some interesting numbers for you on
property Q one property sales. This is an interest dot
co dot NZ piece which I found fascinating. Not good
(05:41):
for apartment owners, not good for investors. Forty one percent
of apartments resold in Q one of this year sold
at a loss compared to their purchase price. Nearly fourteen
percent of properties sold by investors also sold at a loss. Overall,
the number was twelve point two percent, so one in
(06:01):
ten properties in Q one of this year sold at
a loss. That figure has been going up since late
twenty twenty one when it was less than one percent.
We'll have details on that for you shortly.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
News talks headbig herett the first Ryan Bridge on early
edition with Spark for business technology that keeps business moving.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
News Talks AB seventy seven billion dollars of net tax
increases across the Tasman and Jim Chalmer's fifth budget will
have details with Cali Ecole before six this morning. Last
night it was Judith Collins and in politics you need
a bit of resilience.
Speaker 7 (06:38):
It has often commented that I have a bit of resilience. Well,
I you don't get to be resilient unless you have
to be, and I sometimes quit that adversity is just
an opportunity show character. So much adversity, so much character.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Farmers fall the past five Todd McLay Reckins. In the
next couple of weeks, Trump will come for our lamb
exports and the Aussies too, looks like they're going to
launch an investigation. He's spoken to us about this before,
into whether they threatened local producers our exports. By the way,
Lamb to the US with six hundred million last year.
Richard Dawkins fed Farmer's Meat and woelchair with me. Richard,
(07:20):
Good morning, Richard, you're there, Yeah, good morning, good morning,
very well, thank you. The timing of this obviously coming
off the back of the failed the court ruling on
the tariffs, and we're still paying a tariff on what
we're exporting. But how significant is our export to the US.
How damaging would it be if they threaten it?
Speaker 11 (07:44):
Look, the US is a significant trading partner, especially for
sheet meat. But overall last year they took thirteen percent
of our total exports, so an important relationship that companies
like Silversans Farms look, they experts around sixty countries, so
the industry does have the ability to pivot. This needs be.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
It's the local producers that are pushing this, isn't it
the Republicans. There were thirty six Republican members of Congress
signed letters to Trump officials they wanted this probe. They
also have introduced a bill proposing a thirty percent tariff
on all lamb and sheep products imported from New Zealand
and Australia.
Speaker 11 (08:24):
Yeah, that's right, and I can gather the American sheep
industry have certainly been pushing for it as well, which yeah,
is very protectionists. It is a wee bit frustrating Ryan
and that we produce high quality product and it's quite
complementary to their production seasons. It really enhances their market
and it allows the American consumer to get a taste
(08:45):
for lamb, which has beneficial flow on effects for the
American producers as well.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
I've had a look at the part of the section
of law section two one and two or two of
the US Trade Act. Basically, they can impose tariffs if
this and instigation finds that it is causing or threatening
to cause injury to their domestic industry.
Speaker 11 (09:07):
Yeah, so you would hope the findings of that would
show you the actual complementary nature of this trade. But
I'll just say for sheep farmers on the ground in
New Zealand, I mean, we can't control this. We have
to focus on what we can control, and the industry
is in a really good space at the moment, strong
returns across the board, a pretty favorable climate as well,
(09:29):
So we'll focus on that and like I said, we
can pivot to other markets if required, but I don't
think it would get to that point.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
All right, good to know. Richard Dawkins fed Farmers, Meat
and woelschair Good TV on the show this morning time
is seventeen minutes after five Ryan Bread US Just to hand,
one hundred and ten labor MPs as signed a statement
opposing a leadership contest. They say, last week we had
a devastatingly tough set of election results. It shows we
had we have a hard job ahead to win back
(09:56):
trust from the electric That job does need to start
today with all of us working together to deliver the
change the country needs. We must focus on that. This
is no time for a leadership contest. So you now
have more people saying we won't do it than you
do will do it. But that doesn't necessarily mean it
won't happen, does it? Eighteen after and he just looks
(10:17):
like when you turn on your TV this morning, looks
like a dead man walking eighteen after five News talks,
he'd be those property doun details. Next, the first.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
Word on the News of the Day Early edition with
Ryan Bridge and Spark for Business Technology that keeps Business
Moving News talksb.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
March Crown accounts out yesterday. Deficit narrows, but the worrying
thing is your GST receipts are a the canary and
the coal mine. So yeah, it does look better than
it did at the hay for the deficit that is. However,
when you look at March twenty six GST revenue, it
was two point zero six seven billion. That is down
four point four percent on March twenty twenty five, and
(10:59):
it is even lower than the two point zero eighty
five billion in March of twenty twenty four. That is
not a good sign. The other thing you've got here
is individuals us paying our income tax up seven point
one percent from a year earlier, and that is boosted
no doubt by bracket creep, where you get paid more
you shift into a higher tax bracket. Twenty one after
(11:22):
five cry and Bridge, so Kiwis are holding onto their
homes longer than ever. New cotality data shows the median
ownership is now ten years, matching an all time record.
Fewer people are cashing in big In fact, one in
ten selling at a loss. It's up from one percent
that was several years ago back in twenty twenty one.
Matt Ball Property Investors Federation is with us this morning,
(11:43):
Get a Matt Oday, Ryan. So it's apartment owners and
it's also investors who are more likely to sell for
a loss.
Speaker 9 (11:51):
Right, Yeah, that's right. But that's right across the board.
As people are holding onto their houses longer and getting
less of a profit or making a loss.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
You're more likely to make a loss if you sell sooner,
aren't you. I think four point two years was the
medium length of ownership for a loss making property. So
you hold it longer, you're less likely to sell for
a loss.
Speaker 9 (12:12):
Yeah, that's true, Ryan, But there's two factors in there.
One is that we had that peak house prices about
four or five years ago, So there's a bunch of
people who got caught out buying at the top of
the market and then obviously having to sell. Or if
it's an investor, maybe they're just going to cut their
losses and put that money into something else. The other
thing to think about here is inflation. Over that ten
(12:32):
year period, general CPI was thirty six percent, So even
though making a so called profit, aren't going to be
doing that well.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
And it also doesn't take into account what you might
have done to the place in the meantime.
Speaker 9 (12:44):
Right, No, absolutely, right. I mean this is quite interesting.
I think this is the end of the casual investor era.
You can't just bug some money on a house and
think you're going to make a profit.
Speaker 11 (12:54):
You've actually got to.
Speaker 9 (12:54):
Work for your money. I think it's the end of
the treat your house like an atm erar. You can't
just come from the house price going up and covering
all your debts, the boat and the bats that you
put on and whatever else. So that's changed. The good
news is if you're just buying a house to live in,
that's perfectly fine. And if you're a professional investor, you
know you're someone who's buying a rundown house, bring it
(13:17):
up to then resell it because you put some work in,
that's fine. And if you're buying and holding and you're
went into people and providing a own and making a
living out of that, that's fine as well.
Speaker 2 (13:28):
Are we going to see more corporate style landlords as
opposed to mum and dad landlords.
Speaker 9 (13:37):
That's an interesting question. That's actually a trend that you've
seen overseas, and some of the changes to the rules
and regulations don't favor the mum and dad investor. I
think you probably will see a bit of a drop
in that. And because it won't be the casual investor,
someone who's just thinking, oh heck, I better get in
(13:57):
here because everyone else is making money, so I do it.
It will be investors with purpose who want to run
a rental accommodation business, who enjoy providing homes for other
people and know how to make money out of it.
That's the group that will rise.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Good stuff. Matt Matt Bull Properly Investors Federation time is
twenty four minutes after five rayan bridge to the use
very quickly, twenty nine billion dollars. Now the Bill for
fighting the War with Iran Pete Higgseth before another committee
talking about how they might re escalate the thing.
Speaker 12 (14:28):
I would say, we have a plan for all of that.
We have a plan to escalate if necessary. We have
a plan to retrograde if necessary, we have a plan
to shift assets. Certainly, in this setting we wouldn't reveal
what the next step may be, considering the gravity of
the mission that the President is undertaking to ensure that
Iran never has a nuclear bond.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Gavin Gray with us from the UK on All the
Star and Drama at about quarter two this morning. That's
in about half an hour. Next I'll run you through
the Aussie budget, the bits that we really need to know.
Speaker 1 (14:57):
The early edition full the show podcast on IARM Radio.
Now it by News.
Speaker 11 (15:02):
Talks at me.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
Twenty seven after five News Talks be give them an
inch and they'll take a mile. That is basically the
message to anyone worried about a capital gains tax in
New Zealand. In Canberra last night, Jim Charmer's budget was
pitched as a rebalancing of intergenerational inequality. Fewer young people
own homes in Australia, so they've picked grandkids against grandparents
(15:25):
and made tax changes to negative gearing and capital gains.
Negative gearing is where landlords make a loss on their
property your income your renter is less than your expenses,
and you claim the difference is a tax deduction on
other income. It's a benefit. This, by the way, is
something they said that they wouldn't touch and now they have.
Albanezian charmers ran an election campaign say they wouldn't do
(15:47):
this in the same way their key we labor colleagues
claim their capital gains tax will be limited in scope
and scale. But what does it achieve. The median cost
of a Sydney house one point seven million, the country
median almost one million, and that's more than Kiwi prices.
By the way, try by a house in Melbourne. Good luck,
God speak to you. The reason these changes are not
(16:07):
going to change the game for any young Australian or
young Kiwi flying the coup is simple supply as anyone
with a townhouse in West Auckland right now well knows
the fastest way to lower prices to build more of
the things supply and demand. It is basic and these
changes in Australia, fewer homes will be built, not more
(16:29):
Master bills Australias. Is the number of homes built in
future as a direct result, will go down in the
budget treasury. Charmer's own treasury reckons thirty five thousand fewer
homes will be built over the next decade and that
is not a recipe for rebalancing intergenerational inequality. If you
(16:49):
ask me, Bryan Bridge five twenty eight News Talk seb
We've got inflation numbers out of the US. By the way,
consumer price is up three point eight percent for April
from a year earlier. This is high gas prices driving it.
In fact, if you look at the energy mix, forty
of the monthly increase was energy and if you strip
(17:11):
those out, core inflation was two point eight percent. Surprising.
No beef, they've got problems with beef over there. They
are the same ones we do. You want to buy
mints at a supermarket at costco. Good luck everybody, Right,
We'll get to the UK and the latest on Starmer's leadership.
(17:32):
Wose that's coming up in twenty minutes.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
Get ahead of the headlines on early edition with Ryan
Bridge and Spark for Business Technology that keeps Business moving
US talks at B.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
Twenty four. Away from the six News talks, you'd be
we'll get to Kelly Ekov from Westpac on the Aussie
budget before six this morning, and very shortly we will
cross to London find out what's happening with Starmer who's
still got a job. Staying there for a second though.
You know the Green Party leader over there, what's his name? Polanski,
Zach Polanski. This is the guy I've told you about
(18:21):
before who said that he claimed to be able to
make a women's breasts bigger using hypnosis. It's true. This
is the Green guy. This is the guy that Chloe
Swarbrick stopped in to see when she was over in
London to have a little greeting with her meeting with
the Green counterpart. So he claimed to be able to
make women's breast bigger, then later apologize for the claim,
(18:42):
which I would have thought. You know, there are such
an evidence based party, aren't they, the Greens. They like
to always have evidence for something. I mean, where is
the evidence that you can use hypnosis to make a
woman's booms bigger? The only way to do. That is Bolton's,
isn't it. Everyone knows that facts Now he has just
been found to be staying at a two million pound
property in Hackney owned by a fellow Green politician. The
(19:05):
reason this is newsworthy is that he was living on
a houseboat or partially living on a houseboat. And what
it turns out has happened in the last twenty four
hours is, according to the Times, he wasn't paying council
tax that he should have been paying while he was
living on this houseboat. They reckon up to three years
(19:27):
worth has not been paid. So he's in the spot
of bothered. This morning twenty two away from six Bryan
Bridge to go to our reporters Callum in Dunedin. Morning Callum,
Morning Ryan. What's the update on the by election?
Speaker 13 (19:38):
The progress result here has Joe Gayla winning the vacant
council seats Sir Ryan Gayla, a former journalist and Comm's
pr specialist. Eighty five percent of the voting papers have
been counted and Gala's leading the way, less than eight
hundred votes clear of former mayor Aaron Hawkins, who's second,
but Hawkins appears to have conceded to Gala He says
(19:58):
he offered experienced and progressive leadership, but the community's gone
down a different path. Gaylas said her priorities were fixing
the drainage problems and infrastructure in South Dunedin while supporting
Dunedin's economic well being. The Spy election, sparked by the
unexpected death of counselor and former med Dules Radick back
in January, still special votes to come in and the
late votes to be counted, so preliminary results later today,
(20:21):
the final result tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
All right, how's your weather? Shower? Is clear to find
this afternoon fifteen? The high nice one clear on christ
Church Morning, Claire, good morning. Why is caring order selling
and old christ Church Holiday Park?
Speaker 14 (20:34):
Oh, I've actually scrapped that story for you, Ryan, because
I've got some better news that's just landed. I'm telling
you about the fact that there is more money going
to christ Church Cathedral after all. So Christchurch City Council
is planning to give another fifteen million dollars of taxpayers
money to restore the cathedral. What's interesting about this, though,
is that only fifteen percent of twelve hundred submitters actually
(20:55):
support doing that. Thirty five percent say absolutely not. What
Council is proposing to do is use thirty.
Speaker 15 (21:00):
Five point eight million of the forecast forty four point
four million dollars they'll save from the annual budget in
order to go towards some of our iconic equake damage
to buildings now. As well as the cathedral, there'll also
be some money for Canterbury Museum. That's another fifteen million
dollars plus a loan which would be paid back via
a levy on international visitors. At this stage, the Arts
(21:22):
Center and the Canterbury Provincial Chambers miss out on extra money,
despite the public actually supporting that a bit more. The
council money, though, is dependent on some support from central
government too, so we'll see what happens there.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Some late breaking news this morning, Claire, I've got to
have it.
Speaker 16 (21:36):
How's your weather for Christchurch today?
Speaker 14 (21:38):
Cloudy, There is a few showers for Banks Peninsula and
the Chance elsewhere as well.
Speaker 6 (21:42):
Southwesterlies and fifteen.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Degrees nice one. Thank you.
Speaker 5 (21:44):
A bit of rock and roll for you last night, Max, Well, yes,
but don't let anyone tell you otherwise. It was a
very light earthquake four point one, sort of around cook
straight twenty five kilometers south of Wellington Felton, Pickton and
then further up the coast here in car about six
thousand people reporting it on a Geo neet. One person
(22:05):
in Corori said this said earthquake felt like a jolt
and a pop. Another described it like a thud. Felt
like only half the lounge shook, they said. One other
person said it felt a little more sudden and sharp
in southern Wellington. I can tell you I didn't feel
it at all, but they're being from christ Church perhaps
more accustomed to these sorts of things. Yeah, lied earthquake
(22:25):
in Wellington last night about six o'clock.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
I if you didn't feel it, Max, it didn't happen
exact in the forest. How's your weather?
Speaker 5 (22:32):
Yes, overcast with the odd shower Southerly's twelfth.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
Nice don't thank you, Neva, good morning, good morning. How
do you only feel the earthquake and half your lounge?
I know one side you're on the fault line anyway.
So you're talking about the biggest crane soon to tower
over Auckland's mongody.
Speaker 6 (22:51):
It's correct. So look this mess of crane. Now it
has to be assembled on site using another crane, but
it's the only one capable of lifting a new hype section.
So this is going to be put into place at
Hudda near creek in Mangai. This will mean that the
creek will soon be able to carry water freely to
the harbor instead of backing up. So this change is
(23:11):
expected to reduce the flood levels to at least forty
five properties. So it's all part of Auckland Councils seven
hundred and sixty million dollars flood Resilience program and apparently
that's due for completion mid twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (23:24):
How exciting.
Speaker 6 (23:25):
How's our weather, Neva, fine, becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.
No rain though. Eighteen is the high.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
I saw a headline yesterday that said temperatures in Auckland
and not just Auckland, presumably the rest of the country
to plummet to September levels. I'm like, yeah, so season
is changing.
Speaker 6 (23:40):
Well, that's all right, it's supposed to be. We were
talking about that in the news room. Actually, so next week,
you know. But even for us overnight low of eight
I know everyone around the country and go, oh shut up,
had enough plund.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
Today, you don't know, Thank you, Neva. It is eighteen
minutes away from six and Bridge, So tariff's on the agenda.
Trump is heading to Beijing, He's going to meet with She.
Tariffs on the agenda. Of course, they reached one hundred
and forty five percent, remember that one hundred and forty
five percent. However, they reach the truce in October, the
straight will be on the agenda. But the big issue
for and it's I'll tell you in a minute, who's going.
(24:12):
But the big issue for she is the risk of
a global recession. Because you've got to remember that about
a fifth of China's GDP comes from exports. If the
rest of the world is poorer or in recession, they're
not going to buy as many of those exports. That's
a problem for Beijing. Guess who's going on the trip
with Trump? Tim Cook, Apple Okay, Elon Musk hoping to
(24:37):
do a deal seventeen away from six were in London next.
Markets are being a bit jumpy lately. It's fair to
say we've had the war in the Middle East, oil
prices a bunch of uncertainty, and when that hits your investments,
it's hard not to worry, and it's natural that you do.
I'd be concerned if you weren't. But volatility isn't new,
and it doesn't mean that your long term plans stop working.
(24:58):
In fact, you need a flip the thinking here. A
little bit market dips can work in your favor if
you're making regular contributions, because those regular contributions can buy
more units when the unit prices are lower, and that
can translate into long term gains when the markets ultimately
recover again. That discipline underpins Milford's approach to active long
(25:19):
term management of its Keiwisaver funds. Morning Star data shows
Milford's Kiwisaver funds have delivered the highest returns over the
past ten years across growth, balanced and conservative categories. Learn
more at Milfordasset dot com. Forward slash Keiwisaver past performance
is not a reliable indicator of future performance Milford Funds Limited.
It is the issue of the Milford Kiwisaver Plan. Go
(25:41):
to Milford Asset dot com to read the Milford Keiwisavi
Plan product disclosure statement and Milford's Financial Advice provided disclosure Statement.
Speaker 1 (25:49):
International correspondence with NS and Eye Insurance Peace of Mind
for New Zealand Business.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
So Health Sectrey We're streeting over in the UK, apparently
going to meet with Starma to myrow, what is on
the agenda? Well, hi, wonder Devin Grays with us, given
what's the lightest here.
Speaker 17 (26:05):
Well, yes, Wes Street. He'm probably going to say give
me a job or else, but we don't know. It's
a high stakes game this because if you file the
starting gun too early you could end up losing and
be banished. Of course, otherwise, timing it right means you
could get the prize job of Prime Minister Sekir. Starma, though,
is hanging on by a thread. Today four ministers have resigned.
(26:29):
Eighty six of his own MPs have formally come out
and said that he should resign or set out a
timetable for his resignation, and therefore that represents coming on
to one in four of his own MPs. Meanwhile, one
hundred and ten MPs of his have signed a statement
opposing a leadership contest, saying that it would be bad
(26:51):
for the country and indeed plenty of people are agreeing
that this uncertainty is not good. Today in London was
the King of the North, the mayor of Graad de Manster,
Andy Burnham. He was in London seeking support and a seat,
probably needing to do that quite soon. Because he's mayor,
he is not an MP, so he can't become the
(27:11):
Prime minister. But it's thought at least four MPs have
offered him their seat. It would need a by election,
but it would mean one of them would resign. Andy
Burnham stands Andy Burnham gets the seat and then goes
from there, and that looks to be perhaps the most
likely at the moment scenario. But honestly, as I speak,
we're probably going to get more resignations and a week
(27:32):
is a long time in politics.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
And just to clarify for people, this is different from
the Conservatives. It doesn't matter how many people oppose you
these eighty sixty en piece of posing. You actually need
eighty one to get behind a colist, behind a challenger
in labor right.
Speaker 17 (27:47):
Yes, and that needs to be a formal letter and
that needs to go in front of the relevant authorities.
And at the moment that is not a figure that
has been attained. So Sir Kirstarmer was out and about
today visiting a college in London alongside the Work and
Pension Secretary. But there's no doubt that you know the
(28:07):
numbers are building. The number of ministers regularly tops up.
I'm tall, I'm told that more could go as well
in the next few hours. It is a pretty untenable
message and the markets are not liking this. Today the
foot Sea one hundred dropped half of one percent and
then at the end of the day managed to climb
its way pretty even. So pound down against zero, the
(28:30):
pound is down against the US dollar. It is very,
very full of turnil at the moment.
Speaker 11 (28:35):
All right.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Kevin Gray are UK europe correspondent. By the way, the
UK government borrowing costs have jumped to the highest level
overnight since two thousand and eight, since the global financial crisis,
because of all the uncertainty, touching five point one three
percent on ten year eleven to six. Ryan Bridge some
Charmer's fifth budget across the ditch seventy seven billion dollars
a nit new Texas deficit stays by the way until
(28:57):
twenty thirty five.
Speaker 10 (28:59):
This is the most important and ambitious budget in decades.
Important because the world is throwing a lot of us
and this budget is about helping Australia deal with those challenges.
And ambitious because we have so much going for us,
and this budget is about Australia seizing those opportunities.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
Your Rossie Batler's you work is five dollars a week
tax cut for you, negative gearing, capital gains tax breaks
scaled back for your investors and property owners. Kelly, you're
cold Wistpact Chief economist with us LIME this morning, Kelly,
good morning, Good morning.
Speaker 8 (29:31):
Your thoughts well, I mean, I think for the financial
markets this was a bit of a wash because probably
the amount of debt hitting the market is not very
much different than they expected, but it certainly is a
reasonably expansionary budget on net.
Speaker 9 (29:48):
And if I look at what.
Speaker 8 (29:50):
Lucy Ellis, my boss in Australia saying, is this issue
of a bit of a tailor two horizons there where
I mean at the starting point for that Ossie economy,
it's been doing well. That's why THERBA has been tightening
this year. So the government's seen a bit of revenue
from that, so that's good. But then they are spending
more money and all of the savings measures that are
(30:10):
designed to pay for all of this are backloaded because
it's going to take away while before things like capital
gains taxes etc. Start to add to the coffers. So
there's quite a lot of risk there, particularly since most
of those initiatives have to go through legislation. And my
understanding is that some of those oppositions, some of those
other coalition parties, are not supporting some of these things.
(30:32):
So they might be spending a bit of money now,
but they might not get the savings later.
Speaker 2 (30:37):
Plus you've got the thirty six billion I think they
want to cut from the disability insurance scheme. All these things,
as you say, are going to take time to happen
and are not even guaranteed to happen.
Speaker 8 (30:46):
That was my point. Yeah, particularly on that the savings scheme.
I mean, I think that's their equivalent basis seed. You
know how challenging it is to start coming back. The
other thing I'll say is that the assumptions, the economic
assumptions are here. They're quite a bit more rosy than
my colleagues in Australia have in terms of, for example,
where unemployment's going to peak. They say, actually, you're going
to peak at four and a half percent. I would
(31:08):
have thought that's pretty fanciful in the current environment.
Speaker 2 (31:12):
Kelly, you're cold a book very quickly before you go property.
They are you know, scaling back negative gearing that are
doing the tax changes to property investors, and yet the
Treasury's own estimates say it's going to result in fewer
houses being built there.
Speaker 8 (31:29):
Yeah, well, I guess everybody's got a view when they
when they kind of like model these these things through.
I mean, obviously the increase it's a less less positive
environment for investors, isn't it. So I think ordinarily you
might expect to be some supply implications are there.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
Kelly are called Westpac. It is eight to six News
Talk SEB.
Speaker 1 (31:51):
On your radio and online on iHeartRadio Belly Edition with
Ryan Bridge and Spark for Business Technology that keeps is
this movie news talks there'd be.
Speaker 2 (32:01):
You had loads of text this morning about Judith Collins
and her valedictory in the House yesterday. It was a
good speech, and people have been pointing out the fact
that Chris Hopkins wasn't there, How rude, how disrespectful, et cetera.
I mean, you never know, they probably had other events
to go to. But Judith Collins did make a funny
quick about when she announced her resignation.
Speaker 7 (32:19):
I would like to acknowledge that the true news of
my resignation because I Shall never retire was greeted with
an outpouring of love around Parliament and it was so
lovely that I thought I died.
Speaker 2 (32:33):
So as they didn't go on for too long, which
is key news talks, he'd be Bryan Bridge, good morning,
Mike morning. What do you reckon about? What did you
see the valedictri? Yes, I did.
Speaker 16 (32:43):
It was eighteen minutes, which you're correct that she didn't
go on for that. Some of them going halfway were
those things I like what I did like? So she
introduced tases yes for the police, and she introduced no
smoking in prison.
Speaker 2 (32:55):
No smoking.
Speaker 16 (32:55):
And what was interesting about those two stories, as she recounted,
was at the time and it's just so classic of
the news cycle whenever you say something I'm going to
do X Y or Z, it's just roll out the
endless people who were forecasting the doom and the misery
and how it's right and these None of it happened.
It was going to be riots in the prison, None
of it ever happened. So it's interesting, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (33:14):
And also having to convince I thought it was really
insightful actually that you have to convince your own colleagues
of a lot of things first before you even get
to it, because it was.
Speaker 16 (33:24):
Pretty legal, which was interesting. So anyway, she's on the
program this morning. It's something she remained relevant to my eye.
So it's length of time versus relevance. So nothing wrong
with being there for a long time if you're still relevant.
She's seemed relevant for the whole time. A lot of portfolios,
a lot of decisions, a lot of jobs, and she
leaves something tangible behind that you can point to that's
(33:45):
not bad at.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
And especially the sort of lowly portfolio she was given
at the very beginning, and that what's wrong with the
National Library is hardly inspiring.
Speaker 16 (33:56):
Anyway, she's with us, among other things.
Speaker 2 (33:58):
Fantastic, have a great day. Everybody, see you tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (34:10):
For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live
to News Talks. It'd be from five am weekdays, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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