John Howard: Retired Major General and NZ Initiative Senior Fellow on their warning about the state of New Zealand's warships

Cabinet's being warned its window for a decision around replacing our two ageing warships is rapidly closing.  

An NZ Initiative research note says the frigates are set to retire within a decade and the complex geopolitical environment adds another layer of urgency. 

Retired Major General John Howard says we're seeing more volatility both in our region and at home.  

He told Ryan Bridge the country now has the option to think broadly about the maritime capabilities we want and how we defend our national interests.  

Howard says if we’re going to be serious about maintaining a blue-water capability, then we need a minimum of four warships. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Our retired major general says, our two main warships are
going to reach the end of their working lives within
a decade. What's more, cabinet muster side by twenty twenty seven, Yes,
that's next year. What we should do to replace them?
John G. Howard, retired Major General and New Zealand Initiative
senior faally with me this morning. John, Good morning, good morning, right,
nice to have you on the program. So where are

(00:20):
we at with this decision to replace them?

Speaker 2 (00:23):
Well, the decision will be placed before cabinet very shortly.
I'd imagine it's not this year, then early next year,
and then the nation will need to make some hard decisions.

Speaker 1 (00:32):
We're talking here about Takaha and Tamana.

Speaker 2 (00:35):
That's correct, the two current frigates that we have.

Speaker 1 (00:38):
What do they do? What do we need them to do?

Speaker 2 (00:41):
Well? As a maritime trading nation, they offer a range
of support to us. But in essence it means that
we are able to take part in securing our own
economic exclusion zone, which includes our search and rescue area
which is a little bit bigger than our economic exclusion zone,
to participate in a range of operations from diplomatic through

(01:04):
to constabulary and up to an including warfare operations both
close to home and globally, and have done for many years.

Speaker 1 (01:14):
Realistically with two of them if war came, how useful
would we be?

Speaker 2 (01:18):
Well the paper that I'm about to release this afternoon
through the initiative will will highlight that two really is
not a capability. The challenge you have when you have
two warships is you've got to do maintenance, both short
and long term, and you've got to be able to
rotate your crew. There was a decision that was made
some time ago. The country now has an option to
think quite broadly about what maritime capabilities do we want

(01:41):
and how do we defend our national interests.

Speaker 1 (01:43):
How many do you think we need? John Well, if.

Speaker 2 (01:46):
We're going to be serious about maintaining a bluewater capability,
I think four is the minimum number that would allow
that to occur. And that figure is going to be
quite confrontational to the cabinet table and to the nation.
Really think about what the cost of defenses, because in
my mind, the cost of defense is not a percentage
of GDP discussion. It's how do we defend our national interests?

(02:08):
And that's not just the job of New Zealand Defense Force.
It's a whole of government and indeed a whole of society. Job.

Speaker 1 (02:15):
How much would four of these bad boys set us back?

Speaker 2 (02:18):
I'm not sure I've got the answer to that, because
the decision will depend on which one you buy and
the systems that you buy. A frigate is a system
of systems, So we're going to have to think long
and hard about how do we refuel it, where do
we repair it? At the moment, we don't have a
dedicated dry dock capability in New Zealand. There's a range
of deeper discussions and it would be my hope that

(02:40):
we're able to allow this discussion to go into the
public domain, something we haven't done for decades.

Speaker 1 (02:45):
Step one would be not crashing them right, keep what
we've got. What about and this is a serious question
about sea drones. I mean, how much do they play?
Do we need our traditional frigates and still needed in
the modern warfare era?

Speaker 2 (03:02):
Yeah, So that's for a really good question. So we're
in the information age and the technology age. What we've
seen in Ukraine and the Maritime operation and elsewhere tells
us that uncrude systems and then the use of open
source technology and smart systems as we're seeing other nations
heavily invest in, are all part of a layered defense system.

(03:26):
And if we're using the concept of a drone via
that subsurface, surface or air, then that gives us early
warning and indication and that would allow us to look
broadly without having to put a capital ship, as it were,
into harm's way for certain events. That would also mean
that we have to think differently about data because drones
capture data, and in the information age, that means how

(03:48):
do we integrate data to secure our national interests And
that's a deeper discussion because we still don't have a
data strategy in New Zealand.

Speaker 1 (03:55):
Interesting stuff, John a lot on the table, John g
how they retired Mate to General New Zealand initiative. Seen
you Fellow for.

Speaker 2 (04:03):
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