Matt Ball: Property Investors Federation Advocacy Manager on house prices the most affordable they've been in a decade, outside of Covid

Movement in housing affordability could spell good news for first home buyers. 

Cotality NZ's Housing Affordability report for Quarter 4 2025 shows the national value-to-income ratio fell to 7.2. 

This is the lowest level since a brief period in 2019 and before that 2016

The Property Investors Federation's Matt Ball told Ryan Bridge it is still higher than the long-term national average of 6.8. 

He says the decrease is great for young people, but it would be better for it to come down even more. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Right, let's get to property. House prices the most affordable
they've been in a decade. This is outside of the
COVID drop. National value to income ratio down to seven
point two for quarter four of twenty twenty five. That's
the lowest since twenty sixteen. The long term average is
six point eight. Matt Ball Property Investors Federation is with
us this morning. Matt, Good morning, Good morning, Ronnie. Well, yeah,

(00:21):
I'm very well, thank you. Is this where we go
out and buy lots of house.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
Well, I mean it's still above the average long run
affordability measure, so it's great to see that number come down.
That's good for New Zealand, good for young people trying
to buy a house. But it'd be nice if that
dropped down a little bit further.

Speaker 1 (00:39):
When you say good news for everyone, yes, good news
for first home buyers. Do investors go out and buy
at a time like this? Would you know?

Speaker 2 (00:48):
Are they? This isn't the sort of measure that drives investors.
And if you look at some of the other surveys
happening at the moment, you actually see there's more investors
looking to sell at the moment. So the sort of
things that will drive an investor. Are the numbers you know,
if I buy this property, can I either add value
to it or can I get a good cash flow

(01:10):
out of it? So is it a good long term investment?
Things that are making investors nervous at the moment, or
obviously the election that's a bit tight, things like well,
I'm not am I going to be able to rent
the property? The rental market is a bit tight at
the moment, and that's sort of bringing the affordability down
to an achievable level for some people for rents. But

(01:33):
are rent's going to fall further? And they may do.
So it's biggest picture things that are concerning investors at
the moment. But also in some areas things are fine.
So if you go down the bottom of the South Island,
I think that the rental market there is much stronger
and some investors are are much more active.

Speaker 1 (01:52):
How worrying is that interest deductibility thing from labor. I
mean we've talked about this before and you know your
reckonss maybe maybe they'll bring back fifty percent. I mean,
if you're looking, if you're weighing up investment options, as
you say, there's a whole bunch of things you think about.
But how much of a worry or drag is that one.

Speaker 2 (02:10):
Interested actability? And you're right, Ryan, it really does look
like Labor are going to remove it again or at
least fifty percent. It's a huge worry. I just with
any business, if you suddenly couldn't deduct one of your
major expenses, that really changes the economics of it. So, yes,
there are people and I know dotally and this isn't

(02:31):
hard evidence, but I know people who are selling a
few properties as they've got more than one, just to
get ahead of things to encase the election goes Labour's
way and interested actability is removed. It is a really
big concern.

Speaker 1 (02:47):
Matt, appreciate your time this morning. Thanks for being with me,
Matt Boll Property Investors Federation.

Speaker 2 (02:51):
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