Matthew Schmidt: New Haven University’s Director of International Affairs and National Security Expert on the conflict in the Middle East

Stability is continuing to erode across the Middle East with another day of large-scale combat.  

The White House advises its military attacks on Iran could last weeks. 

The strikes have killed Iran's Supreme Leader and numerous officials and more than 1250 targets have already been struck.  

Tehran's been retaliating, sending strikes over surrounding countries, with six US servicemen among the dead. 

National Security Expert Matthew Schmidt told Ryan Bridge that when all is said and done, there are a few basic groups who may gain control in Iran. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Iran targeting Saudi oil refineries. Overnight tank is being hit
trying to enter the strait of him was Lebanon the
latest battleground His bulla israeled a trading strikes. Here's Pete
Higgs Seth.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
If you kill Americans, if you threaten Americans anywhere on Earth,
we will hunt you down without apology and without hesitation,
and we will kill you.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
So what's the end? Where does it end? Is the question?
Matthew Schmidt, Director of International Affairs, national security expert, and
you have a university with US live this morning. Matthew,
welcome to the program.

Speaker 3 (00:32):
Hi Ryan, thanks I here.

Speaker 1 (00:34):
I know that you have your brief across not only
the leadership in Iran but also the weapons. So when
does the scene, how does this end? In your view, Matthew, you.

Speaker 3 (00:47):
Have to think of Iran right now as sort of
an elite stage autocracy that's coming apart, and you end
up with sort of three basic groups. You've got the
security services, the upper ranks were devastated in the first
wave of the attack, the IRGC, the Ila Kameni. His

(01:10):
son is connected to the IRGC and stands as a
possible successor, although his own father said, and Shia Islam
sort of pushes against the idea of hereditary succession, so
there's there's a bit of a problem there. On the
other side, you have the founder's grandson, Hassan Komeni, who

(01:32):
positions himself sort of as a moderate, who is someone
that may be able to come in and say, look,
we can salvage the Islamic Republic as an Islamic republic.

Speaker 1 (01:46):
It looks like we've just completely lost Matthew, which is
a real shame because he has fantastic and fascinating things
to say. He does have numbers, so the war likely
to shift to Iran's drone capabilities next because we've talked
about boots on the ground. His boots on the ground
actually is relevant these days. Look at what's happening in Ukraine.
He says, the stockpile of drones there could be as

(02:10):
high as eighty thousand, and those drones are good. He's
bent with us, now, Matthew, I'll let you finish.

Speaker 3 (02:16):
Yeah, So I think I was on a harmony of
his grandson, So he's a monitor candidate that could sort
of bridge things. And then you have the question of
some sort of democratic revolution, right, and the name that
we all know in the West is RAZAPALAVII, the son
of the Late Shaw, and he's got a lot of support,

(02:39):
but he also has a lot of detractors inside Iran
and a lot of people who are simply saying, you
haven't lived here, you don't know the society. And there
are different groups. There's a student group, there's labor groups
in Iran, but there's no one really emerging as a
leader on the ground in Iran. And that's the real question.
So my money right now is on the IOGC consolidating

(03:02):
control for the moment. And the problem with the democratic
groups is right now they're just trying to save their
kids from the bombs, right pick them up from school,
get them too, somewhere safe, and nobody's really out in
the street.

Speaker 1 (03:14):
Het Matthew will leave it there, appreciate your time this morning.
Sorry about that dodgy line. That's said doctor Matthew Schmidt,
who's a national security University of New Haven in the
United States. What he also points out is the stockpile
of drones there, as I said, could be eighty thousand,
and then you look at the fact that they can
quickly and at very low costs produce about four hundred

(03:36):
more a day. And then Israel's you know the Iron
Dome that they've got, Well, the Iron Dome interceptions run
it about a million dollars. Your drones run it at
about twenty five thousand dollars. So how many intercepts do
you do for such cheap toys that have been thrown
at your country that can be deadly?

Speaker 3 (03:55):
For more from early edition with Ryan Bridge.

Speaker 1 (03:58):
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